Draft Q and A 2020

Philip Broberg photo by Bruce McCurdy

We’re approaching the 2020 draft at lightning speed, and the Edmonton Oilers remain a team badly in need of at least one additional selection. Ken Holland has left himself only five picks in seven rounds, just two inside the top 100. That’s one of many questions about this year’s Oilers draft.

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QUESTIONS!

How will Holland find a way to add another pick? He could (as he mentioned to Daniel Nugent-Bowman recently) trade No. 14 overall for two picks: One later in the first round and an additional pick somewhere 41-100 overall. I don’t know if that happens but that’s an easy answer to your question.

What about dealing Jesse Puljujarvi for a pick? Holland has stated in the past a desire to find a young player who can contribute right away and I think that makes sense. Grabbing the No. 35 overall pick could mean several years of watching JP thrive elsewhere while the draft picks dies on the vine. Optics are part of this, make no mistake.

Favourite player in the draft at No. 14 overall? I’ll assume that all of Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Perfetti, Rossi, Sanderson, Holtz, Raymond, Amriov, Drysdale, Lundell, Askarov and Jarvis are off the board. If that’s the case, I’d probably go with one of Jack Quinn, Dawson Mercer, Mavrik Bourque or Connor Zary.

Pick one, dammit! Dawson Mercer. Range of skills, already a strong two-way player, shoots right. His offensive ability combined with a 200-foot game makes him a splendid fit in Edmonton.

Will the Oilers pick him at No. 14? They might but the names we’re hearing are the athlete types like Dylan Holloway and Kaiden Guhle. That’s a tell for the entire draft.

And you hate that? No, I like both players, have Guhle at No. 20 and Holloway at No. 25. I think both will go before my ranking. I like other players more at No. 14, which makes sense as my list is about the math of the draft.

You and your damned equivancies! Not my NHLE’s, but rather Gabriel Desjardins. Vollman updated and tweaked, Manny Elk has had a lash at it and I’m sure others have models. I just believe there’s a spot where a player ceases to be an ‘offensive forward’ and becomes just like everyone else in the NHL. Nothing bad about it, but you’re trying to draft Jordan Eberle at No. 14 this October, not Paul Bunyan.

Is there a scouting report on the Oilers scouts? I think you can predict with some degree of confidence who Edmonton will choose, yes. The names that have been floated (Holloway, Guhle) are shy offensively compared to other names that will be available. It’s a tell because if the other 30 teams know the Oilers won’t draft (say) Seth Jarvis, then the pick at No. 15 becomes extremely valuable in trade.

Give me some names that will fit your scenario. Aside from Holloway and Guhle, I’ll mention Will Cuyle, Dylan Peterson. Several of those names showed well at the Hlinka and posted good seasons. Suspect Edmonton likes all of them.

Has Holland drafted big forwards a lot? Have they failed often? Well Tyler Wright is the director of amateur scouting, so we should be looking at his track record. Players who were big forwards who could score and had elements of a power forward’s game on their draft days include Kerby Rychel, Josh Anderson, Givani Smith, Evgeny Svechnikov, Michael Rasmussen. I’d rather have my math picks.

Favourite player in the draft full stop. Byfield. The next great skill player in a gigantic body and he looks like all that and a little more.

Best player not on your list. Probably Egor Sokolov, he’s an overage forward with size, skill and reasonable speed. If I do a revised list, he’ll be on it for sure.

Who do you think the Oilers will take? Could be any number of players. I do think Askarov will be considered, and I also think they would that a shot at a defenseman if Drysdale, Sanderson or Guhle is there. I expect it’ll be a forward, but am concerned the Oilers are going to leave a quality offensive forward like Jarvis on the board. I mean, look at the Lightning for crying out loud. Skill skill skill!

Name 10 players you hope the Oilers take at the draft. Seth Jarvis, Jack Quinn, Dawson Mercer, Mavrik Bourque or Connor Zary in the first round. After that, Vasili Ponomaryov, Veeti Miettinen, Pavel Novak, Tristan Robins, Alexander Pashin, Yevgeni Oksentyuk, Anton Johannesson.

What is the best part of the draft?For me, the best part of hockey is watching these kids grow from where they are on draft day to full bloom. The emergence of Bear, Yamamoto and Jones last year is the result of a lot of great work on several levels. Those are important steps to becoming an NHL team.

Was this a difficult season to mark? It was pretty easy for me, but my rankings don’t fit with the other lists. I think the top 8 in this draft are on an island, picks starting No. 9 could be from the moon.

Will Holland trade the first-round pick? His story as general manager has been about the long game, so my guess is he keeps most or all of his picks.

If the Oilers pick Holloway No. 14, will you write a scathing article? I won’t because Holloway is rated in that range. I do believe there are 14 players who are better bets.

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113 Responses to "Draft Q and A 2020"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its crazy that the draft is about a month away.

    It is going to be a heck of a bang, bang off-season with timelines for everything condensed.

    Going to need that because winter without hockey is, well, egregious.

    Unfortunately we might be looking at a bang, bang off-season and then, boom, nothing as they figure out camp and start dates. The off-season is contemplating mid-November camps but, I can’t imagine that happening.

    With that said, the Q is playing exhibition games right now….

  2. leadfarmer says:

    I think the likelihood of only 2 d picked ahead of us given previous seasons is pretty low
    One of those players you listed as picked will be available

  3. Moe says:

    What are your thoughts on Jake Neighbours? If the Oilers trade down and pickup an early second rounder, would there be interest?

    I think he would be a great pick in round 2. A good character kid that can slot anywhere in a lineup, and has some jam in his game.

  4. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its crazy that the draft is about a month away.

    It is going to be a heck of a bang, bang off-season with timelines for everything condensed.

    Going to need that because winter without hockey is, well, egregious.

    Unfortunately we might be looking at a bang, bang off-season and then, boom, nothing as they figure out camp and start dates.The off-season is contemplating mid-November camps but, I can’t imagine that happening.

    With that said, the Q is playing exhibition games right now….

    How is the Q making things work? (fans, travel?). Them playing games (and the European leagues for that matter) has got to be a good sign the NHL and other Jr leagues happening next season, no?

  5. John Chambers says:

    I could just imagine the pre-game at the Mercer Tavern with the townsfolk wearing Mercer jerseys.

    Every player is going to want their own bar along the row.

  6. Kraz says:

    Someone will 100% take Braden Schneider before the oilers pick. Jack Quinn would be amazing for the oilers to get. I read he had something like 34 even strength goals this season exclusively on a second line without Rossi. Unreal.

  7. Todd Macallan says:

    Not sure if it counts as floating names but I find it heartening that the Oilers have posted two prospect profiles so far, Jarvis and Quinn. Stauffer also has had one 2020 draft prospect on his show so far, Jarvis.

  8. leeinvan says:

    I still think if the Oiler’s trade a top 4 d man, and they might, they get another 1st round pick. If that happens and the goalie is still there, my guess is they take him as well.
    Nurse to Ottawa would change the dynamic of this team, the 2 d prospects will eventually be the #1 and #2 D men of the Oiler’s.
    It’s time for a change and the team needs another top forward prospect to possibly fill the need of the player who will be drafted by Seattle.

  9. Kraz says:

    After watching the Islanders in the postseason is it fair to say they have the best Dcorps in the NHL? No superstar but al extremely underrated and very good smart. They all seem to have high hockey IQ’s and play against the other teams top players in any situation

  10. flea says:

    If there are still major covid concerns, the NHL should start with a bubble tournament to kick off the season, kind of like the MLS. Take care of all the cross country travel early on.

    It wouldn’t suprise me to see Canadian teams have to set up shop in the US to make the season go initially, similiar to what happened to the Blue Jays.

    Maybe as compensation, the NHL could host the initial tournament in Canadian cities – maybe even re use the bubbles in Edmonton and Toronto. Play 20-30 games in the bubble and hope things improve enough, and give Canadian teams time to sort out playing sites in the United States.

  11. digger50 says:

    I liked Leavins points when discussing a Jessie P for Henrik Borgstrom swap. Would Borgstrom fit on Conneros left side? Hes fast and skilled.

    Id still pick up Ennis though, and AA as a set up third line wingers who may still need a center.

    Borgstrom Connor Kassian
    Nuge Leon Yamo

    AA Marody Ennis
    Benson/Nygaurd ? Archibald

    Neal Khaira Chaisson

    This line up is not expensive, there should be enough $ for another above average center. Borgstrom is a lefty center, there is some options.

    Quite a bit of speed and start pushing some skill down to third line.

    The fifth line are good for special teams and spares; they can be inserted as need be, however my observation is they have a few good games and then fade. I think they are replaceable.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: How is the Q making things work? (fans, travel?). Them playing games (and the European leagues for that matter) has got to be a good sign the NHL and other Jr leagues happening next season, no?

    They are going with a 60-game schedule and 3 6-team divisions – I believe the teams only play within their division.

    The Q has some geographic benefits – no US teams and only teams in the Maritimes and Quebec.

    Games in Quebec will not have fans (at least to start) but the games in the Maritimes they are working with gov’t and hoping to be able to get some semblance of fans.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Per Patrick C:

    For #Oilers fans wanting to check in on Kirill Maksimov, he’s playing for Zvezda Moscow in the #VHL today, vs. Yaroslav Askarov and SKA-Neva St. Petersburg (Maksimov is #52 in red): youtube.com/watch?v=CoNVWi…

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Not great news that Maksi is in the VHL – then again, so is Askarov.

  15. godot10 says:

    Kraz:
    Someone will 100% take Braden Schneider before the oilers pick. Jack Quinn would be amazing for the oilers to get. I read he had something like 34 even strength goals this season exclusively on a second line without Rossi. Unreal.

    He is the oldest player in the draft. It was pretty much his draft +1 season.

    Contrast to Dylan Holloway, who had to adjust to college and took off in January after a slow start.

  16. godot10 says:

    Kraz:
    After watching the Islanders in the postseason is it fair to say they have the best Dcorps in the NHL? No superstar but al extremely underrated and very good smart. They all seem to have high hockey IQ’s and play against the other teams top players in any situation

    Their forwards, unlike most of the Oiler forwards, check and track back hard.

    Lazy forwards make any defense look bad.

  17. Reja says:

    If that was Kass that layed out Motte”s Clamato I can guarantee it would be more than the 1 game Reaves received. I know it was regular season but remember when Mcdavid got suspended for 2 games for a love tap. These folks In charge still hate the Cocky Oilers from the Eighties.

  18. cowboy bill says:

    Speaking of Askarov , l wonder if he would indeed be the right choice at 14 . If he comes as advertised hhe might have the ability to come right in and backup Koskinen . And that would be brilliant.

  19. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    godot10: He is the oldest player in the draft.It was pretty much his draft +1 season.

    Contrast to Dylan Holloway, who had to adjust to college and took off in January after a slow start.

    I’ll start by saying I agree that age needs to play a role in this decision and that- along with concerns of sheltering- is part of why Quinn isn’t at the top of my list. However, to play the advocacy of Satan:

    If the February-born alternative pick we made proceeded to pot 52 goals while not playing wingman to an elite C in HIS draft+1 season next year, wouldn’t we be thrilled with such a season? And wouldn’t we feel like he’s probably on the cusp of pushing for a roster spot the following year after such production?

    Older generally means further along in development and can thus be framed as either having less room to grow OR being closer to being a finished product.

  20. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: They are going with a 60-game schedule and 3 6-team divisions – I believe the teams only play within their division.

    The Q has some geographic benefits – no US teams and only teams in the Maritimes and Quebec.

    Games in Quebec will not have fans (at least to start) but the games in the Maritimes they are working with gov’t and hoping to be able to get some semblance of fans.

    Thanks.

    I wasn’t sure if the Lewiston Maineiacs were still a thing (not since 2011!! Seems I don’t follow the Q closely!). And playing in division would take care of the Atlantic bubble I guess (assuming that’s still in place).

  21. Kraz says:

    godot10,

    Not sure what your point is? Dylan Holloway and jack quinn were born 4 days apart…
    Being a late birthday shouldn’t hurt prospects as long as the offence is there. If you picked a player mid first round and in his draft +1 he potted 50 in the OHL driving his own line people would be ecstatic

  22. Kraz says:

    Kraz,

    Well looks like me and unfriendly are on the same page. Didn’t mean to post the exact same thing he did

  23. Harpers Hair says:

    Holloway is playing against men as old as 24 in college in the NCAA.

    Typically, freshmen don’t get as much ice time as older players.

    NCAA players also get much more practice time and skill development.

    All else being equal, take the college player every time.

  24. godot10 says:

    Kraz:
    godot10,

    Not sure what your point is? Dylan Holloway and jack quinn were born 4 days apart…
    Being a late birthday shouldn’t hurt prospects as long as the offence is there. If you picked a player mid first round and in his draft +1 he potted 50 in the OHL driving his own line people would be ecstatic

    context matters was my point.

    If somebody points out Quinn’s or Holloway’s NHLE without considering the entire context in which those results were obtained, then they are possibly missing something.

    Two older players, two entirely different contexts for evaluating their boxcars or NHLE’s.

  25. Brantford Boy says:

    Kraz,

    I disagree… Tampa’s defense has exceptional talent… ask the Bruins. I think Tampa will win this series quite easily, say 4-2.

  26. Brantford Boy says:

    LT: “If that’s the case, I’d probably go with one of Jack Quinn, Dawson Mercer, Mavrik Bourque or Connor Zary. Pick one, dammit! Dawson Mercer.”

    THIS… and only THIS…

  27. Jaxon says:

    “I’ll assume that all of Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Perfetti, Rossi, Sanderson, Holtz, Raymond, Amriov, Drysdale, Lundell, Askarov and Jarvis are off the board.”

    I don’t think that’s a safe assumption. Many mocks don’t have Amirov, Jarvis, and Askarov gone before the Oilers pick.

  28. leadfarmer says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Kraz,

    I disagree… Tampa’s defense has exceptional talent… ask the Bruins.I think Tampa will win this series quite easily, say 4-2.

    The Vegas Dallas series will be interesting as they are close in style and skill
    Tampa is going to school the Isles

  29. Material Elvis says:

    leadfarmer: The Vegas Dallas series will be interesting as they are close in style and skill
    Tampa is going to school the Isles

    The Isles might surprise. Strong team game that stifles offense. I don’t think it’s going to be that easy for Tampa.

  30. Material Elvis says:

    Jaxon:
    “I’ll assume that all of Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Perfetti, Rossi, Sanderson, Holtz, Raymond, Amriov, Drysdale, Lundell, Askarov and Jarvis are off the board.”

    I don’t think that’s a safe assumption. Many mocks don’t have Amirov, Jarvis, and Askarov gone before the Oilers pick.

    The draft will start to go off the rails when teams reach on defensemen. Guhle, Schneider, or someone else will push the likes of Lundell, Amirov, Askarov, Jarvis, and maybe Quinn down the board. It never goes the way we think it will go.

    I am still wary of drafting Askarov. Even ‘arrived early’ Carter Hart didn’t look that great in the playoffs (he will probably be a stud for years to come but it’s going to be 5 years post draft). The selection of goalie is too risky in my opinion. The Oilers need forward depth in the worst way and have the opportunity to add some quality this year.

  31. Material Elvis says:

    If they land Jarvis and Miettinen, that has to be considered a strong draft. Like you say LT, “skill, skill, skill”. Watching the Islanders, how does a guy like Beauvillier get drafted so late? Oh yeah, his incredible numbers were ignored and bigger, more athletic players were taken ahead of him.

  32. Munny says:

    If one is relying on Math to evaluate Holloway against his peers, you are likely doing Math wrong. There isn’t an NHLe for him.

    Not saying one can’t use Math. But I’m going to need to see your work.

    Pretty fair to say that the tool LT is using is seriously under-evaluating this draft prospect.

    Have to find the inefficiencies in the system and exploit them. This is a glaring one.

  33. Munny says:

    I see Leavins has Pujo asking for $1.5M.

    Hmm. I wonder where this risk was mentioned first?

    You can be fairly certain that if they do get his signature on a contract, that contract number will be six digits.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    How much concern is there about Jack Quinn’s age?

    He’s the oldest player in the draft among the higher ranking players – I believe only 4 days away from being eligible for the 2019 draft.

    His season this year can, in some ways, be akin to a draft plus 1 season for many others and his season last year akin to the draft year for many others and, frankly, he was not nearly as good last year.

    I’m not saying to stay away because of this but isn’t it a material factor?

  35. Material Elvis says:

    Munny:
    I see Leavins has Pujo asking for $1.5M.

    Hmm.I wonder where this risk was mentioned first?

    You can be fairly certain that if they do get his signature on a contract, that contract number will be six digits.

    There’s no way he gets $1.5M. $1M or less then traded to Florida, Carolina, Arizona, or Hershey.

  36. Munny says:

    Material Elvis,

    We now know his opening ask. A materially prolific poster here is thinking under a mill is an easy peasy no brainer.

    We now know this is not the case.

  37. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Munny,

    I fail to see what he’s done to warrant asking $1.5M, unless that’s his tactic to get anything over a million?

  38. Reja says:

    Material Elvis: There’s no way he gets $1.5M.$1M or less then traded to Florida, Carolina, Arizona, or Hershey.

    I offer him 1.1 million on a 2 year contract and since he wants a trade so badly he’s going to have to play his way out of Edmonton.

  39. leadfarmer says:

    Munny:
    If one is relying on Math to evaluate Holloway against his peers, you are likely doing Math wrong.There isn’t an NHLe for him.

    Not saying one can’t use Math.But I’m going to need to see your work.

    Pretty fair to say that the tool LT is using is seriously under-evaluating this draft prospect.

    Have to find the inefficiencies in the system and exploit them.This is a glaring one.

    Tough to gauge cause he was a 17 yo on a Badgers team that was absolutely terrible despite some high end talent in Caufield Turcotte and Miller

  40. Munny says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:

    I fail to see what he’s done to warrant asking $1.5M, unless that’s his tactic to get anything over a million?

    Does it in any way sound out of character for either the player or his agent?

    Leavins said his sources are pretty solid on this one.

    I speculated this would be the case months ago, and now we are here.

    Will that be the final number on the dotted line? No, of course not. But it is an adversarial opening position and makes a value contract for under a mill extremely unlikely.

  41. Munny says:

    leadfarmer: Tough to gauge cause he was a 17 yo on a Badgers team that was absolutely terrible despite some high end talent in Caufield Turcotte and Miller

    How many NHLes are there for 17 yo freshmen forwards playing in the NCAA?

  42. Ryan says:

    Munny:
    If one is relying on Math to evaluate Holloway against his peers, you are likely doing Math wrong.There isn’t an NHLe for him.

    Not saying one can’t use Math.But I’m going to need to see your work.

    Pretty fair to say that the tool LT is using is seriously under-evaluating this draft prospect.

    Have to find the inefficiencies in the system and exploit them.This is a glaring one.

    I don’t know if there is an NHLe for the AJHL.

    I suspect not since it doesn’t graduate many NHL players.

    Holloway had 1.66 pt:g in his draft – 1 in the AJHL.

    Carter Savoir had 1.8 pt/g this year.

    He’s about four months younger than Holloway. He’s ranked 50th by NHl central scouting for this draft.

  43. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Holloway is playing against men as old as 24 in college in the NCAA.

    Typically, freshmen don’t get as much ice time as older players.

    NCAA players also get much more practice time and skill development.

    All else being equal, take the college player every time.

    The offense isn’t remotely equal in this case though.

  44. Victoria Oil says:

    Ryan: I don’t know if there is an NHLe for the AJHL.

    I suspect not since it doesn’t graduate many NHL players.

    Holloway had 1.66 pt:g in his draft – 1 in the AJHL.

    Carter Savoir had 1.8 pt/g this year.

    He’s about four months younger than Holloway. He’s ranked 50th by NHl central scouting for this draft.

    I think the AJHL NHLe is somewhere around 0.16 or 0.17.

    A guy named Cale Makar averaged just under 1.4 pts/GP in the AJHL as a defenceman in his draft year. Some people think he’s pretty good.

  45. jp says:

    Material Elvis:

    I am still wary of drafting Askarov. Even ‘arrived early’ Carter Hart didn’t look that great in the playoffs (he will probably be a stud for years to come but it’s going to be 5 years post draft).The selection of goalie is too risky in my opinion.

    I’m not sure about this argument. Tons of goalies past draft +5 didn’t look great in the playoff either.

    Fair enough to be wary but this doesn’t strike me as s great reason.

  46. Munny says:

    Victoria Oil: I think the AJHL NHLe is somewhere around 0.16 or 0.17.

    The Math behind AJHL equivalencies is pretty tenuous, but it’s still stronger than freshman NCAA numbers.

  47. jp says:

    Munny:
    If one is relying on Math to evaluate Holloway against his peers, you are likely doing Math wrong.There isn’t an NHLe for him.

    Not saying one can’t use Math.But I’m going to need to see your work.

    Pretty fair to say that the tool LT is using is seriously under-evaluating this draft prospect.

    Have to find the inefficiencies in the system and exploit them.This is a glaring one.

    Based on his physical tools?

  48. Munny says:

    jp,

    Well it would be stupid to disregard any relevant aspect of a player when evaluating and comparing.

    But my sentence is in reference to the issue that the NHLe coefficient for quality freshmen NCAA prospects is likely too small. so we know we can give him a bump. We just have no idea how much.

    The strange thing is,people are already making exceptions like this where it is convenient to their view… like rookie SHL Dmen,. for eg. but seem to struggle to do the same for Holloway…

  49. Material Elvis says:

    jp: I’m not sure about this argument. Tons of goalies past draft +5 didn’t look great in the playoff either.

    Fair enough to be wary but this doesn’t strike me as s great reason.

    It was more to drive home the point that Askarov likely wouldn’t be able to help the team for at least five years, even if he ‘hits’ à la Carter Hart.

  50. Material Elvis says:

    leadfarmer: Tough to gauge cause he was a 17 yo on a Badgers team that was absolutely terrible despite some high end talent in Caufield Turcotte and Miller

    He turned 18 before the season started.

  51. Material Elvis says:

    Munny:
    Material Elvis,

    We now know his opening ask.A materially prolific poster here is thinking under a mill is an easy peasy no brainer.

    We now know this is not the case.

    He can ask for that but there is no chance he gets it. He has no leverage other than ‘I’ll keep playing in Europe’, which he just might do…..for way less money.

  52. Munny says:

    Material Elvis,

    Will that be the final number on the dotted line?No, of course not.But it is an adversarial opening position and makes a value contract for under a mill extremely unlikely.

  53. Munny says:

    Material Elvis,

    As i commented eariler in the thread:

    Munny:

    Will that be the final number on the dotted line?No, of course not.But it is an adversarial opening position and makes a value contract for under a mill extremely unlikely.

  54. Material Elvis says:

    Munny:
    Material Elvis,

    As i commented eariler in the thread:

    Right, I saw that but don’t believe he will be offered a contract for much more than $1M because of his lack of leverage. We’ll see what happens.

  55. Munny says:

    Material Elvis,

    Glad you finally agree with my point that under a mill now seems highly unlikely lol.

  56. Jaxon says:

    Not a comprehensive list, but it did give us an idea of how teams might draft… Compiling them shows just who is most likely to be available. I’ll update as I find more mocks

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kt908SMIVzlhsZMIpTAq1Np3ujXtiGLuHiXcZ6_3jN0/edit?usp=drivesdk

  57. Material Elvis says:

    Victoria Oil: I think the AJHL NHLe is somewhere around 0.16 or 0.17.

    A guy named Cale Makar averaged just under 1.4 pts/GP in the AJHL as a defenceman in his draft year. Some people think he’s pretty good.

    A 1.4 ppg defenseman is more impressive than a 1.66 ppg forward; just saying. Holloway’s NHLe based on his last year in the AJHL was 23. Not sure what his equivalency was for this past season. It is likely not as high as Mercer, Jarvis, or Quinn and I think the difference should be taken seriously.

  58. Material Elvis says:

    Munny:
    Material Elvis,

    Glad you finally agree with my point that under a mill now seems highly unlikely lol.

    I like what you did there!

  59. jp says:

    Material Elvis: It was more to drive home the point that Askarov likely wouldn’t be able to help the team for at least five years, even if he ‘hits’ à la Carter Hart.

    Yeah I guess it just seems unfair to say/imply Hart’s playoff performance was due to his age despite being a strong NHL goalie in draft +3 and +4. Lots of older goalies also didn’t have strong playoffs.

    (and was he really ‘not great’ in the playoffs? he had the 4th best SV% of the 15 goalies who played 6 games… I didn’t watch though)

    (one more, 2 of the 3 goalies ahead of Hart in SV% were top 20 draft picks)

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Not sure if it counts as floating names but I find it heartening that the Oilers have posted two prospect profiles so far, Jarvis and Quinn. Stauffer also has had one 2020 draft prospect on his show so far, Jarvis.

    Ya, I took Jarvis on the show to have meaning. Stauff does continue to mention Guhle and Hollway quite a bit.

  61. Brantford Boy says:

    Jaxon,

    Could you take the request access option off and open the spreadsheet up to public?

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    cowboy bill:
    Speaking of Askarov , l wonder if he would indeed be the right choice at 14 . If he comes as advertised hhe might have the ability to come right in and backup Koskinen . And that would be brilliant.

    Back-up Koskinen like this coming season?

    Taking away the fact that he’s under contract in Russia so not able, i think that would be a pretty wild proposition.

    Not even Carey Price nor Carter Hart nor, Vasilevskiy, etc. played in the NHL in their draft plus 1 year.

    Askarov isn’t even in the KHL right now. He’s in the second tier pro league in Russia, the VHL.

    Konovalov, who is in the KHL, would be closer to being ready to back-up this coming season.

    I would think a reasonable timeline for Askarov would be NHL games in 2022/23 – which lines up with expedited timelines for other elite prospect goalies.

  63. jp says:

    Munny:
    jp,

    Well it would be stupid to disregard any relevant aspect of a player when evaluating and comparing.

    But my sentence is in reference to the issue that the NHLe coefficient for quality freshmen NCAA prospects is likely too small.so we know we can give him a bump.We just have no idea how much.

    The strange thing is,people are already making exceptions like this where it is convenient to their view… like rookie SHL Dmen,. for eg.but seem to struggle to do the same for Holloway…

    For sure, don’t disregard any of the elements. I guess I was just reacting to NCAA freshman NHLe being a glaring inefficiency that could/should be exploited.

    Yes, NHLe likely undervalues 17 year old college players (18 yo in this case I guess). But by NHLe this player isn’t anywhere near the 1st round. NHLe is being ignored in Holloway’s rankings already. It may not be a true representation of his offense but IMO his actual scoring rates should rightly knock him down a bit.

    He seems to be ranked in the latter teens by most sources: https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/322111/dylan-holloway. LT listening to NHLe (a bit) and pushing him down to #25 looks 100% reasonable to me.

    In terms of what NHLe for a college rookie *should* be, I don’t have the answer. I do know that Holloway scored less than most forwards drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds out of college in relatively recent years. (I looked pretty recently regarding Holloway. I don’t have the exact list unfortunately and don’t have time now to re-do it),

    Anyway, at minimum I do think we can fairly say that Holloway scored less than the majority of his NCAA freshman peers who were notable prospects.

  64. Material Elvis says:

    jp: Yeah I guess it just seems unfair to say/imply Hart’s playoff performance was due to his age despite being a strong NHL goalie in draft +3 and +4. Lots of older goalies also didn’t have strong playoffs.

    (and was he really ‘not great’ in the playoffs? he had the 4th best SV% of the 15 goalies who played 6 games… I didn’t watch though)

    (one more, 2 of the 3 goalies ahead of Hart in SV% were top 20 draft picks)

    He was okay and by no means the reason why the Flyers lost. His overall numbers (.926 sv%) were buoyed by some poor performances by Montreal. He still seems a bit inconsistent but he is only 22. I’m torn on Askarov. If he becomes as good as Hart I would be happy. The risk of the goalie not panning out scares the crap out of me. The Oilers cannot miss on this pick.

  65. Tragikomix says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    How much concern is there about Jack Quinn’s age?

    He’s the oldest player in the draft among the higher ranking players – I believe only 4 days away from being eligible for the 2019 draft.

    His season this year can, in some ways, be akin to a draft plus 1 season for many others and his season last year akin to the draft year for many others and, frankly, he was not nearly as good last year.

    I’m not saying to stay away because of this but isn’t it a material factor?

    Almost every higher ranking forvard, who will be probably available at #14, was born in october or september. Only Jarvis was born in february.

  66. Eh Team says:

    Ryan: Holloway had 1.66 pt:g in his draft – 1 in the AJHL.

    Carter Savoir had 1.8 pt/g this year.

    Savoie played on a stacked team and has a reputation as a floater. Two way hockey is not his thing. Maybe he will learn that in the NCAA but right now he’s just hanging out getting points. NCAA is a big step up from AJHL.

  67. Eh Team says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: I fail to see what he’s done to warrant asking $1.5M, unless that’s his tactic to get anything over a million?

    Archibald got 2 years @ $1.5 and JP is a better player right now plus has upside. Though to be fair, Archibald’s contract is an overpay too.

  68. Jaxon says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Jaxon,

    Could you take the request access option off and open the spreadsheet up to public?

    Oops

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kt908SMIVzlhsZMIpTAq1Np3ujXtiGLuHiXcZ6_3jN0/edit?usp=drivesdk

    Should be good now

  69. Jaxon says:

    I’m not really concerned about whether Askarov can play in 2,3 or even 5 or 6 years. If I’m playing the long game, I take Askarov. When McDavid and Draisaitl and Nurse contacts recipe I really want to be able to point to the new franchise goalie and say, “We have a real short at winning (another?) Cup with this guy.” Will you be willing to sign at a reasonable rate? Seeing Vasilevsky on his way up probably helped convince TBL players to stay the course.

  70. jp says:

    Material Elvis: He was okay and by no means the reason why the Flyers lost. His overall numbers (.926 sv%) were buoyed by some poor performances by Montreal. He still seems a bit inconsistent but he is only 22.I’m torn on Askarov.If he becomes as good as Hart I would be happy.The risk of the goalie not panning out scares the crap out of me.The Oilers cannot miss on this pick.

    IMO there’s no question getting an above average starter with pick #14 would be a great result.

    In terms of ‘Oilers cannot miss’, well that’s a tough one. I don’t remember the numbers, but what’s the likelihood of a #14 pick playing 200 NHL games? 50/50 or something in that range I think. It’s not a top 5 pick, the probability of an impact player at #14 isn’t all that great.

    In terms of Askarov vs a forward, I’ve gone through this with Godot. I’m personally convinced (looking at the numbers) the chances of getting a quality NHL goalie with a 1st round pick is no less than getting a quality forward from the same pick. And IMO a goalie is every bit as significant a long term need for the Oilers as a forward is. That said, there will definitely be some nice looking forward prospects there at 14! I don’t know the actual prospects well enough to say if Askarov would be the right pick but goalies not panning out isn’t part of the equation.

  71. jp says:

    Eh Team: Savoie played on a stacked team and has a reputation as a floater.Two way hockey is not his thing.Maybe he will learn that in the NCAA but right now he’s just hanging out getting points.NCAA is a big step up from AJHL.

    The NCAA is a huge step up from the AJHL, just look at Holloway’s conversion factor.

    (Sorry, I’m just being a jerk now)

  72. Ryan says:

    Victoria Oil: I think the AJHL NHLe is somewhere around 0.16 or 0.17.

    A guy named Cale Makar averaged just under 1.4 pts/GP in the AJHL as a defenceman in his draft year. Some people think he’s pretty good.

    Love Makar.

    The Avs are my second team.

    I love what Sakic has done which is why I follow them.

    It’s a weird type of fandom. I actually made the choice to follow the team vs being an Oilers fan that was more something just ingrained in my childhood.

    On the other hand, I merely like how the team is run and plays. I don’t feel much either way when they win or lose.

    Back to the AJHL, obviously there’s Makar and Parayko… Matt Benning and his draft-eligible brother, Michael are also from the AJHL. Michael’s a small / shifty / high skill player at 1.39 ppg. If we had a second rounder, he would be a great selection.

    My point was that it’s been a long time since a quality forward was drafted from that league, so it’s hard to compare numbers.

    While Makar had 50 pts in 57 regular season games, he also plays a ton of PP1 minutes. Holloway probably won’t see PP1 minutes in his rookie NHL season regardless of which team drafts him.

  73. Brantford Boy says:

    Jaxon,

    Thanks… excellent collection… I found it odd that Pronman didn’t even have Mercer in the top 15… were going to get a great skill player at 14… no question.

  74. leadfarmer says:

    Holloways skating in his size is very intriguing

  75. Material Elvis says:

    jp: IMO there’s no question getting an above average starter with pick #14 would be a great result.

    In terms of ‘Oilers cannot miss’, well that’s a tough one. I don’t remember the numbers, but what’s the likelihood of a #14 pick playing 200 NHL games? 50/50 or something in that range I think. It’s not a top 5 pick, the probability of an impact player at #14 isn’t all that great.

    In terms of Askarov vs a forward, I’ve gone through this with Godot. I’m personally convinced (looking at the numbers) the chances of getting a quality NHL goalie with a 1st round pick is no less than getting a quality forward from the same pick. And IMO a goalie is every bit as significant a long term need for the Oilers as a forward is. That said, there will definitely be some nice looking forward prospects there at 14! I don’t know the actual prospects well enough to say if Askarov would be the right pick but goalies not panning out isn’t part of the equation.

    Fair enough — I didn’t see your previous comparison but will take your word for it. If he turns out to be an above average starter, that is definitely more valuable than a forward.

  76. Lowetide says:

    NEW for The Athletic: How does a team counter a truly diabolical opponent? Fight fire with fire. The Oilers could find a world-class agitator in the draft.

    https://theathletic.com/2048190/2020/09/06/lowetide-the-oilers-could-find-a-world-class-agitator-in-the-draft/

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    I see Leavins has Pujo asking for $1.5M.

    Hmm.I wonder where this risk was mentioned first?

    You can be fairly certain that if they do get his signature on a contract, that contract number will be six digits.

    I can’t imagine Holland offering a contract in the 7 figures.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    So, MAF starting tonight.

    After Lehner goes in back to back games and finishes off with 3 shutouts in the last series they go with MAF?

    I don’t get it.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eh Team: Archibald got 2 years @ $1.5 and JP is a better player right now plus has upside. Though to be fair, Archibald’s contract is an overpay too.

    Archibald was a UFA coming off a strong season helping the team with tertiary scoring, PK strength and short term ability up the lineup.

    Puljujarvi is an RFA with no arbitration rights coming off a great season in Finland.

    These are not comparable signings. Caleb Jones signed for 2 X $850K earlier this year.

    I anticipate that Jesse is a “better” player than Archie in the NHL but that is not proven at this point.

  80. Eh Team says:

    OriginalPouzar: Archibald was a UFA coming off a strong season helping the team with tertiary scoring, PK strength and short term ability up the lineup.

    Archibald got outscored 34-19 5×5 and was outscored no matter where he played in the lineup. He looks good via the eye test but the results weren’t there. Yeah, good on the PK, but he should have a 1 year contract near the league minimum.

  81. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can’t imagine Holland offering a contract in the 7 figures.

    I can’t imagine JP accepting a contract not in 7 figures

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: I can’t imagine JP accepting a contract not in 7 figures

    I can.

  83. godot10 says:

    Remember. A player who signs a notional $1 million contract, only receives $700K in actual salary next season with $100K indefinitely deferred.

  84. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Ya, I took Jarvis on the show to have meaning.Stauff does continue to mention Guhle and Hollway quite a bit.

    I like Jarvis for my money if I were making the selection.

    That being said, at least we’re not talking about a reach.

    McKenzie has Guhle at 14 and Holloway at 16.

    While I’ve never liked the false dichotomy of drafting for need vs best player available, let’s be honest…

    We have a window open right now today with two elite players in their respective primes.

    We have a dire need to draft a scoring forward. Not a Centre, not a right or left winger, just any type of scoring forward.

    Again, it’s one thing to argue against drafting for need if you take a right handed Centre instead of a left shot winger… but less so if you don’t care if it’s a winger, Centre, or which shot the player has.

    While some defensemen are making the NHL much earlier than previously, generally d men take more time to make the NHL than forwards.

    The certainty of the gap between players in the 10-20 range isn’t big enough to necessarily defend selecting a defenseman vs a forward.

    In a hypothetical situation where the BPA is always a left shot defenseman, they’re not exactly liquid assets for making trades to address other roster issues. You can’t keep drafting left shot defenseman forever with your first pick. Ideally, you only want 3-4 on an active roster.

    Chiarelli notwithstanding, defensemen rarely have trade value between the day they’re drafted and until they’ve established some NHL ability.

  85. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan: I like Jarvis for my money if I were making the selection.

    That being said, at least we’re not talking about a reach.

    McKenzie has Guhle at 14 and Holloway at 16.

    While I’ve never liked the false dichotomy of drafting for need vs best player available, let’s be honest…

    We have a window open right now today with two elite players in their respective primes.

    We have a dire need to draft a scoring forward. Not a Centre, not a right or left winger, just any type of scoring forward.

    Again, it’s one thing to argue against drafting for need if you take a right handed Centre instead of a left shot winger… but less so if you don’t care if it’s a winger, Centre, or which shot the player has.

    While some defensemen are making the NHL much earlier than previously, generally d men take more time to make the NHL than forwards.

    The certainty of the gap between players in the 10-20 range isn’t big enough to necessarily defend selecting a defenseman vs a forward.

    In a hypothetical situation where the BPA is always a left shot defenseman, they’re not exactly liquid assets for making trades to address other roster issues. You can’t keep drafting left shot defenseman forever with your first pick. Ideally, you only want 3-4 on an active roster.

    Chiarelli notwithstanding, defensemen rarely have trade value between the day they’re drafted and until they’ve established some NHL ability.

    The dire need is to trade the pick for an established goal scoring forward.

    Nothing else matters at all.

  86. Ryan says:

    Eh Team: Archibald got outscored 34-19 5×5 and was outscored no matter where he played in the lineup.He looks good via the eye test but the results weren’t there.Yeah, good on the PK, but he should have a 1 year contract near the league minimum.

    Very nice post!

    You should post more.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    Remember.A player who signs a notional $1 million contract, only receives $700K in actual salary next season with $100K indefinitely deferred.

    That 10% deferral isn’t a holdback, its a true deferral – it will be unconditionally provided to the player (i think in two years).

    Yes, there is escrow (that is really a forfeit this season – players will claw zero back), yes there are taxes, etc. – I still think Jesse would make more money than he currently does in Liiga. It actually might be close but I think it’ll be more.

    Either way, I don’t think money will be a main issue here and isn’t Jesse’s issue. He had an offer in the KHL which, presumably, was more money.

    In any even, if Holland agrees to anything more than his QO, I’ll be surprised if its anything more than nominal.

  88. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: The dire need is to trade the pick for an established goal scoring forward.

    Nothing else matters at all.

    You desperately want the Oilers to trade that pick hey?

  89. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: You desperately want the Oilers to trade that pick hey?

    That pick won’t make an impact for 3-5 years.

    Tick tock.

  90. who says:

    leadfarmer: I can’t imagine JP accepting a contract not in 7 figures

    I don’t know how low JP is willing to go, but if he’s firm on 1.5 million, I’d ask him to sign a 2 year deal. At worst, it’s a slight overpay. But it has the potential to be a value contract, especially in the 2nd year.
    The key is to get him signed. If you want to recover max value on this asset, he has to be playing in the NHL. That’s the bottom line.

  91. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    An AAV greater than the amount fully buryable in the AHL would be egregious.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    An AAV greater than the amount fully buryable in the AHL would be egregious.

    I don’t disagree but, even if Jesse struggles early, I imagine he’d get plucked off waivers – shit, a higher AAV/cap hit might actually be the one thing that would lead to him clearing (likely still wouldn’t though).

    This is 100% not the right time to trade the 14th overall pick (high skill at position of need (forward), could definitely arrive sooner than 3-5 years) for an established scoring forward that wouldn’t be expansion draft exempt and which would mandate other moves to find the cap.

    The team is a year away from that move.

  93. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: That pick won’t make an impact for 3-5 years.

    Tick tock.

    So you trade that pick (and some other stuff) for a JT Miller. Maybe you get lucky and that player blossoms like JT Miller did and goes from a 50 point player to a point per game player. Maybe.

    You also need to buy out Neal and/or find some other way to clear cap.

    And you need to choose to use that cap space (and the draft picks) on a goal scoring forward in lieu of a 3C and/or 2nd goalie. Which would help the team more?

    Oh, and the “JT Miller” (best case scenario), if he works out, becomes a UFA around the time that draft pick is hitting stride. Before McDavid and Draisaitl’s deals expire. So then you’re looking for a replacement. Without a cheap in-house option available.

    Is it the right kind of move? Maybe. At least as likely it isn’t, IMO.

  94. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree but, even if Jesse struggles early, I imagine he’d get plucked off waivers – shit, a higher AAV/cap hit might actually be the one thing that would lead to him clearing (likely still wouldn’t though).

    This is 100% not the right time to trade the 14th overall pick (high skill at position of need (forward), could definitely arrive sooner than 3-5 years) for an established scoring forward that wouldn’t be expansion draft exempt and which would mandate other moves to find the cap.

    The team is a year away from that move.

    The team will always be a year away from that move.

    Tick tock.

  95. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: So you trade that pick (and some other stuff) for a JT Miller. Maybe you get lucky and that player blossoms like JT Miller did and goes from a 50 point player to a point per game player. Maybe.

    You also need to buy out Neal and/or find some other way to clear cap.

    And you need to choose to use that cap space (and the draft picks) on a goal scoring forward in lieu of a 3C and/or 2nd goalie. Which would help the team more?

    Oh, and the “JT Miller” (best case scenario), if he works out, becomes a UFA around the time that draft pick is hitting stride. Before McDavid and Draisaitl’s deals expire. So then you’re looking for a replacement. Without a cheap in-house option available.

    Is it the right kind of move? Maybe. At least as likely it isn’t, IMO.

    Of course you can always keeps your powder dry and hope some random dude will make the Oilers competitive in a few years.

    Sounds like a plan.

  96. Ryan says:

    Harpers Hair: The dire need is to trade the pick for an established goal scoring forward.

    Nothing else matters at all.

    In my mind, next year is sort of a write-off in terms of our ability to improve the roster. The expansion draft is looming. We have no cap and we’re still stuck with Pouliot cap hit and K Russell.

    If it weren’t for our cap constraints and the expansion draft, I might agree with you.

    The key is for Kenny to stop digging.

    He hasn’t.

    Kassian. Chiasson. Archibald.

    Marginal overpays in dollars and term continue.

    If I were GM…

    I’d find the cheapest backup goalie with the best stats willing to sign for one year only. After next season, Koskinen has one year left in his contract and I’d want better options.

    I’d look at our LD depth chart and realize that Nurse’s value is depreciating as his contract runs. I’d shop Nurse for an Ehlers type player if available.

    Benning is complicated. Ideally I’d get him on the cheapest two-year contract for expansion draft fodder. If there’s no deal there, I’d trade him or walk if necessary.

    AA. I’d look for a cheap two year deal if he bites. I don’t think I would qualify with the risk involved.

    Draft. I’d still go Jarvis. I’d look to trade our 1sr for need for the next draft.

    I’d fill out the roster as necessary keeping as much cap space as I could.

    We’re not making a run for the cup next season, but the one after that, look out.

  97. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan: In my mind, next year is sort of a write-off in terms of our ability to improve the roster. The expansion draft is looming. We have no cap and we’re still stuck with Pouliot cap hit and K Russell.

    If it weren’t for our cap constraints and the expansion draft, I might agree with you.

    The key is for Kenny to stop digging.

    He hasn’t.

    Kassian. Chiasson. Archibald.

    Marginal overpays in dollars and term continue.

    If I were GM…

    I’d find the cheapest backup goalie with the best stats willing to sign for one year only. After next season, Koskinen has one year left in his contract and I’d want better options.

    I’d look at our LD depth chart and realize that Nurse’s value is depreciating as his contract runs. I’d shop Nurse for an Ehlers type player if available.

    Benning is complicated. Ideally I’d get him on the cheapest two-year contract for expansion draft fodder. If there’s no deal there, I’d trade him or walk if necessary.

    AA. I’d look for a cheap two year deal if he bites. I don’t think I would qualify with the risk involved.

    Draft. I’d still go Jarvis. I’d look to trade our 1sr for need for the next draft.

    I’d fill out the roster as necessary keeping as much cap space as I could.

    We’re not making a run for the cup next season, but the one after that, look out.

    Yep.

    I’m sure the rest of the division will stand still waiting for the Oilers to catch up.

  98. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Yep.

    I’m sure the rest of the division will stand still waiting for the Oilers to catch up.

    Let’s be honest, the Canucks have played their cards. They can’t do more than try to keep whatever Benning has built together going forward as the “depth” contracts fall off. A lot of the division really is standing still actually.

  99. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Cue Godot and all of the posters who lament the idea of trading Nurse.

    The way his contract is structured, you basically have to trade him.

    Nurse has two years left in his contract.

    The Oilers are not going to win the Stanley cup next year. That’s a fact.

    After that, you have one year left on the contract before you basically have to pay free agency prices to extend Nurse..

    On the basis of the above alone, trading him now is no-brainer.

    Another way of looking at it…

    Two years of a Nurse @5.6m has x value.

    One year of Nurse @5.6m has y value.

    Nurse at 5.6m at the trade deadline on his expiring contract has z value.

    X >> y >>> z aka a second and conditional 5th.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    That is not a fact.

    Its unlikely that they will win the cup next year but them not winning is not a fact – and the fact that its not a fact is a fact.

  101. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Let’s be honest, the Canucks have played their cards. They can’t do more than try to keep whatever Benning has built together going forward as the “depth” contracts fall off. A lot of the division really is standing still actually.

    Let’s be honest.

    The Oilers have a bottom five prospect pool while the Canucks are top ten.

    Podkolzin
    Hoglander
    Lind
    Woo
    Rathbone
    Rafferty
    Juolevi
    DiPietro

    Adding a hope and a prayer who might play in a couple of seasons at best, isn’t going to change reality.

  102. Ryan says:

    Harpers Hair: Yep.

    I’m sure the rest of the division will stand still waiting for the Oilers to catch up.

    I’ll be honest with you.

    When the Jets selected Mark Scheifele, I felt a genuine sense of pity and sorrow for their franchise.

    While I’m not a Jets fan, they’re not the Flames or Canucks.

    I felt almost the same way when Colorado hired Joe Sakic.

    Oh great, another tire fire of a franchise hires a former hall of fame player to rescue them, I already know where this is going… Train meet wreck.

    But Sakic like Scheifeke proved me way wrong.

    Who knew Joe Sakic’s a freakin genius?

    So that brings me to my point.

    With the expansion draft looming, no cap space, a flat cap, and little help from the minors coming, little chance of making a run. what would a Joe Sakic do?

    I don’t think he’d trade the 14.

  103. Eh Team says:

    jp: Let’s be honest, the Canucks have played their cards. They can’t do more than try to keep whatever Benning has built together going forward as the “depth” contracts fall off. A lot of the division really is standing still actually.

    And soon enough Hughes and Pettersen will be making $8-10m on their second contracts. And he will sign Markstrom and Toffoli to contracts that the Canucks will regret in a year or two. And the Canucks will still have no depth.

  104. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Question.

    Why does Apple autocorrect add the indefinite article “a” in front of proper nouns?

    Second question.

    Why can’t my fat fingers type correctly on an iPad?

    Last question.

    Where’s the edit button?

  105. jp says:

    Material Elvis,

    The Cole’s Notes version of drafting goalies in the 1st round:

    21 goalies were drafted in the 1st round in the 15 drafts from 2002-2016. They were compared to the forwards drafted immediately before and after them in the same year (42 forwards).

    A “successful” season was:
    For forwards – 40+ games and 0.5+ points per game.
    For goalies – 20+ games and .910+ SV%.
    (those numbers roughly match top 6 forward production and a top 30 goaltender performance)

    15 of 21 goalies (71%) had at least 1 “successful” season.
    27 of 42 forwards (64%) had at least 1 “successful” season.

    The 21 goalies averaged 3.86 “successful” seasons.
    The 42 forwards averaged 3.57 “successful” seasons.

    Players that had 4 or more “successful” seasons:
    11 of 21 goalies (52%)
    18 of 42 forwards (43%)

    So by these criteria goalie picks were more successful. The only kicker is that the ones who worked out did take a little longer to arrive. Of the guys who had 4+ successful seasons, when did they arrive? (as a % of total picked):

    Goalies:
    Draft +1 0/21
    Draft +2 0/21
    Draft +3 1/21 (5%)
    Draft +4 2/21 (10%)
    Draft +5 8/21 (38%)
    (I’d note that a number of the goalies (Fleury and Lehtonen among them) were starters for bad teams before they managed a .910 SV%)

    Forwards:
    Draft +1 1/42 (2%) (this is Rick Nash, picked #1 before Lehtonen in 2002)
    Draft +2 1/42 (2%) (still Rick Nash)
    Draft +3 9/42 (21%)
    Draft +4 14/42 (33%)
    Draft +5 18/42 (38%)

    These number say (if you believe them) that if you draft a forward in the 1st you’re roughly 20% more likely to get someone who contributes in draft +3 and +4 compared to a goalie. But if you pick a goalie you’re roughly 10% more likely to get a player who has sustained (4+ seasons) success.

  106. jp says:

    Eh Team: And soon enough Hughes and Pettersen will be making $8-10m on their second contracts.And he will sign Markstrom and Toffoli to contracts that the Canucks will regret in a year or two.And the Canucks will still have no depth.

    Yup, they’re going to get paid. Not at all sure those deals will look good vs McDavid and Draisaitl.

    And it sounds like they’re likely to run with Demko in net. Good thing they have DiPietro as another can’t miss coming right behind (letting Markstrom walk might allow them to sign Tofolli and Tanev though…….).

  107. Victoria Oil says:

    Ryan: In my mind, next year is sort of a write-off in terms of our ability to improve the roster. The expansion draft is looming. We have no cap and we’re still stuck with Pouliot cap hit and K Russell.

    If it weren’t for our cap constraints and the expansion draft, I might agree with you.

    The key is for Kenny to stop digging.

    He hasn’t.

    Kassian. Chiasson. Archibald.

    Marginal overpays in dollars and term continue.

    If I were GM…

    I’d find the cheapest backup goalie with the best stats willing to sign for one year only. After next season, Koskinen has one year left in his contract and I’d want better options.

    I’d look at our LD depth chart and realize that Nurse’s value is depreciating as his contract runs. I’d shop Nurse for an Ehlers type player if available.

    Benning is complicated. Ideally I’d get him on the cheapest two-year contract for expansion draft fodder. If there’s no deal there, I’d trade him or walk if necessary.

    AA. I’d look for a cheap two year deal if he bites. I don’t think I would qualify with the risk involved.

    Draft. I’d still go Jarvis. I’d look to trade our 1sr for need for the next draft.

    I’d fill out the roster as necessary keeping as much cap space as I could.

    We’re not making a run for the cup next season, but the one after that, look out.

    Excellent post.

  108. Material Elvis says:

    jp:
    Material Elvis,

    The Cole’s Notes version of drafting goalies in the 1st round:

    21 goalies were drafted in the 1st round in the 15 drafts from 2002-2016. They were compared to the forwards drafted immediately before and after them in the same year (42 forwards).

    A “successful” season was:
    For forwards – 40+ games and 0.5+ points per game.
    For goalies – 20+ games and .910+ SV%.
    (those numbers roughly match top 6 forward production and a top 30 goaltender performance)

    15 of 21 goalies (71%) had at least 1 “successful” season.
    27 of 42 forwards (64%) had at least 1 “successful” season.

    The 21 goalies averaged 3.86 “successful” seasons.
    The 42 forwards averaged 3.57 “successful” seasons.

    Players that had 4 or more “successful” seasons:
    11 of 21 goalies (52%)
    18 of 42 forwards (43%)

    So by these criteria goalie picks were more successful. The only kicker is that the ones who worked out did take a little longer to arrive. Of the guys who had 4+ successful seasons, when did they arrive? (as a % of total picked):

    Goalies:
    Draft +1 0/21
    Draft +2 0/21
    Draft +3 1/21 (5%)
    Draft +4 2/21 (10%)
    Draft +5 8/21 (38%)
    (I’d note that a number of the goalies (Fleury and Lehtonen among them) were starters for bad teams before they managed a .910 SV%)

    Forwards:
    Draft +1 1/42 (2%) (this is Rick Nash, picked #1 before Lehtonen in 2002)
    Draft +2 1/42 (2%) (still Rick Nash)
    Draft +3 9/42 (21%)
    Draft +4 14/42 (33%)
    Draft +5 18/42 (38%)

    These number say (if you believe them) that if you draft a forward in the 1st you’re roughly 20% more likely to get someone who contributes in draft +3 and +4 compared to a goalie. But if you pick a goalie you’re roughly 10% more likely to get a player who has sustained (4+ seasons) success.

    Thanks. Interesting, indeed. Not a huge sample either way but likely enough to debunk the ‘drafting goalie is higher risk’ argument.

    I still worry about the lack of skill forward depth. Thinking I’d like to see management focus on building that up with the limited number of draft picks they have over the next two drafts.

  109. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Let’s be honest.

    The Oilers have a bottom five prospect pool while the Canucks are top ten.

    Podkolzin
    Hoglander
    Lind
    Woo
    Rathbone
    Rafferty
    Juolevi
    DiPietro

    Adding a hope and a prayer who might play in a couple of seasons at best, isn’t going to change reality.

    The Oilers can think about adding someone once they have a little cap space. And reality is not so bad, really.

    In terms of prospects, maybe Podkolzin puts it together but to this point he hasn’t scored like a #10 pick at any point. And Hoglander is playing on a 3rd line with Raphael Lavoie (picked 2 spots before him), seems like a wash. The others are as much prospect as suspect.

    I’m more than fine with the Oilers 27 and under crew going forward vs. the Canucks.

    Draisaitl
    McDavid
    Nugent-Hopkins
    Yamamoto
    Plus 6 NHL Dmen

    vs. the Canucks
    Miller
    Pettersson
    Boeser
    Horvat
    Hughes (and the distant bells)

    Wait, no one on the Canucks roster has ever scored 30 goals? JT Miller this year is the only one to ever score 70 points? Oof.

  110. jp says:

    Material Elvis: Thanks.Interesting, indeed.Not a huge sample either way but likely enough to debunk the ‘drafting goalie is higher risk’ argument.

    I still worry about the lack of skill forward depth. Thinking I’d like to see management focus on building that up with the limited number of draft picks they have over the next two drafts.

    I think it’s enough to debunk that argument, but certainly not everyone agrees.

    And yes, skill forwards outside the NHL are definitely an organizational weakness. I agree with you on that being a focus, but I also see future starting goalie as a major area of need (again, not everyone agrees).

    Since “starting goalie” is generally more important than “top 6 forward” I guess I’d lean towards the goalie in a theoretical sense. I definitely see you POV too though, and I’m not at all far from it.

  111. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    jp: I think it’s enough to debunk that argument, but certainly not everyone agrees.

    And yes, skill forwards outside the NHL are definitely an organizational weakness. I agree with you on that being a focus, but I also see future starting goalie as a major area of need (again, not everyone agrees).

    Since “starting goalie” is generally more important than “top 6 forward” I guess I’d lean towards the goalie in a theoretical sense. I definitely see you POV too though, and I’m not at all far from it.

    I agree. Getting a 1A is a key priority. But given the risk (will Askarov really develop into that goalie) and the lag phase (not likely to arrive D+3 To D+5) it may be better to get a 1A by a different route starting after this season or to go after a young goalie that is clearly popping or about to pop. Some teams are G rich. I also think the 2G system is a better plan than a 1 and backup.

  112. jp says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: I agree. Getting a 1A is a key priority. But given the risk (will Askarov really develop into that goalie) and the lag phase (not likely to arrive D+3 To D+5) it may be better to get a 1A by a different route starting after this season or to go after a young goalie that is clearly popping or about to pop. Some teams are G rich. I also think the 2G system is a better plan than a 1 and backup.

    That’s fair.

    But I don’t think who the Oilers pick at 14 (whether it’s a forward, goalie or dman) should affect what Holland does with the Oilers roster at all. IMO no one you’re picking at 14 can be projected to fill a future roster spot with any certainty.

    They’re all lottery tickets. Drafting Askarov shouldn’t (and I don’t think would) stop Holland from trying to find the best goalie he can (for next season and to succeed Koskinen). Just like drafting Jarvis or Quinn shouldn’t affect how Holland approaches 3C or top 6 wingers this off season.

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