We’re approaching the 2020 draft at lightning speed, and the Edmonton Oilers remain a team badly in need of at least one additional selection. Ken Holland has left himself only five picks in seven rounds, just two inside the top 100. That’s one of many questions about this year’s Oilers draft.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Should the Oilers select goalie Yaroslav Askarov 14th at the NHL Draft?
- New Lowetide: A bold draft strategy for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers third-line centre search should include other teams’ cap casualties
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie has opted for Europe. Will others follow suit?
- Lowetide: Oilers return to traditional farming model with Bakersfield Condors
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Lowetide: How close are the Oilers to deploying two formidable scoring lines?
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
QUESTIONS!
How will Holland find a way to add another pick? He could (as he mentioned to Daniel Nugent-Bowman recently) trade No. 14 overall for two picks: One later in the first round and an additional pick somewhere 41-100 overall. I don’t know if that happens but that’s an easy answer to your question.
What about dealing Jesse Puljujarvi for a pick? Holland has stated in the past a desire to find a young player who can contribute right away and I think that makes sense. Grabbing the No. 35 overall pick could mean several years of watching JP thrive elsewhere while the draft picks dies on the vine. Optics are part of this, make no mistake.
Favourite player in the draft at No. 14 overall? I’ll assume that all of Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Perfetti, Rossi, Sanderson, Holtz, Raymond, Amriov, Drysdale, Lundell, Askarov and Jarvis are off the board. If that’s the case, I’d probably go with one of Jack Quinn, Dawson Mercer, Mavrik Bourque or Connor Zary.
Pick one, dammit! Dawson Mercer. Range of skills, already a strong two-way player, shoots right. His offensive ability combined with a 200-foot game makes him a splendid fit in Edmonton.
Will the Oilers pick him at No. 14? They might but the names we’re hearing are the athlete types like Dylan Holloway and Kaiden Guhle. That’s a tell for the entire draft.
And you hate that? No, I like both players, have Guhle at No. 20 and Holloway at No. 25. I think both will go before my ranking. I like other players more at No. 14, which makes sense as my list is about the math of the draft.
You and your damned equivancies! Not my NHLE’s, but rather Gabriel Desjardins. Vollman updated and tweaked, Manny Elk has had a lash at it and I’m sure others have models. I just believe there’s a spot where a player ceases to be an ‘offensive forward’ and becomes just like everyone else in the NHL. Nothing bad about it, but you’re trying to draft Jordan Eberle at No. 14 this October, not Paul Bunyan.
Is there a scouting report on the Oilers scouts? I think you can predict with some degree of confidence who Edmonton will choose, yes. The names that have been floated (Holloway, Guhle) are shy offensively compared to other names that will be available. It’s a tell because if the other 30 teams know the Oilers won’t draft (say) Seth Jarvis, then the pick at No. 15 becomes extremely valuable in trade.
Give me some names that will fit your scenario. Aside from Holloway and Guhle, I’ll mention Will Cuyle, Dylan Peterson. Several of those names showed well at the Hlinka and posted good seasons. Suspect Edmonton likes all of them.
Has Holland drafted big forwards a lot? Have they failed often? Well Tyler Wright is the director of amateur scouting, so we should be looking at his track record. Players who were big forwards who could score and had elements of a power forward’s game on their draft days include Kerby Rychel, Josh Anderson, Givani Smith, Evgeny Svechnikov, Michael Rasmussen. I’d rather have my math picks.
Favourite player in the draft full stop. Byfield. The next great skill player in a gigantic body and he looks like all that and a little more.
Best player not on your list. Probably Egor Sokolov, he’s an overage forward with size, skill and reasonable speed. If I do a revised list, he’ll be on it for sure.
Who do you think the Oilers will take? Could be any number of players. I do think Askarov will be considered, and I also think they would that a shot at a defenseman if Drysdale, Sanderson or Guhle is there. I expect it’ll be a forward, but am concerned the Oilers are going to leave a quality offensive forward like Jarvis on the board. I mean, look at the Lightning for crying out loud. Skill skill skill!
Name 10 players you hope the Oilers take at the draft. Seth Jarvis, Jack Quinn, Dawson Mercer, Mavrik Bourque or Connor Zary in the first round. After that, Vasili Ponomaryov, Veeti Miettinen, Pavel Novak, Tristan Robins, Alexander Pashin, Yevgeni Oksentyuk, Anton Johannesson.
What is the best part of the draft?For me, the best part of hockey is watching these kids grow from where they are on draft day to full bloom. The emergence of Bear, Yamamoto and Jones last year is the result of a lot of great work on several levels. Those are important steps to becoming an NHL team.
Was this a difficult season to mark? It was pretty easy for me, but my rankings don’t fit with the other lists. I think the top 8 in this draft are on an island, picks starting No. 9 could be from the moon.
Will Holland trade the first-round pick? His story as general manager has been about the long game, so my guess is he keeps most or all of his picks.
If the Oilers pick Holloway No. 14, will you write a scathing article? I won’t because Holloway is rated in that range. I do believe there are 14 players who are better bets.
That’s fair.
But I don’t think who the Oilers pick at 14 (whether it’s a forward, goalie or dman) should affect what Holland does with the Oilers roster at all. IMO no one you’re picking at 14 can be projected to fill a future roster spot with any certainty.
They’re all lottery tickets. Drafting Askarov shouldn’t (and I don’t think would) stop Holland from trying to find the best goalie he can (for next season and to succeed Koskinen). Just like drafting Jarvis or Quinn shouldn’t affect how Holland approaches 3C or top 6 wingers this off season.
I agree. Getting a 1A is a key priority. But given the risk (will Askarov really develop into that goalie) and the lag phase (not likely to arrive D+3 To D+5) it may be better to get a 1A by a different route starting after this season or to go after a young goalie that is clearly popping or about to pop. Some teams are G rich. I also think the 2G system is a better plan than a 1 and backup.
I think it’s enough to debunk that argument, but certainly not everyone agrees.
And yes, skill forwards outside the NHL are definitely an organizational weakness. I agree with you on that being a focus, but I also see future starting goalie as a major area of need (again, not everyone agrees).
Since “starting goalie” is generally more important than “top 6 forward” I guess I’d lean towards the goalie in a theoretical sense. I definitely see you POV too though, and I’m not at all far from it.
The Oilers can think about adding someone once they have a little cap space. And reality is not so bad, really.
In terms of prospects, maybe Podkolzin puts it together but to this point he hasn’t scored like a #10 pick at any point. And Hoglander is playing on a 3rd line with Raphael Lavoie (picked 2 spots before him), seems like a wash. The others are as much prospect as suspect.
I’m more than fine with the Oilers 27 and under crew going forward vs. the Canucks.
Draisaitl
McDavid
Nugent-Hopkins
Yamamoto
Plus 6 NHL Dmen
vs. the Canucks
Miller
Pettersson
Boeser
Horvat
Hughes (and the distant bells)
Wait, no one on the Canucks roster has ever scored 30 goals? JT Miller this year is the only one to ever score 70 points? Oof.
Thanks. Interesting, indeed. Not a huge sample either way but likely enough to debunk the ‘drafting goalie is higher risk’ argument.
I still worry about the lack of skill forward depth. Thinking I’d like to see management focus on building that up with the limited number of draft picks they have over the next two drafts.
Excellent post.
Yup, they’re going to get paid. Not at all sure those deals will look good vs McDavid and Draisaitl.
And it sounds like they’re likely to run with Demko in net. Good thing they have DiPietro as another can’t miss coming right behind (letting Markstrom walk might allow them to sign Tofolli and Tanev though…….).
Material Elvis,
The Cole’s Notes version of drafting goalies in the 1st round:
21 goalies were drafted in the 1st round in the 15 drafts from 2002-2016. They were compared to the forwards drafted immediately before and after them in the same year (42 forwards).
A “successful” season was:
For forwards – 40+ games and 0.5+ points per game.
For goalies – 20+ games and .910+ SV%.
(those numbers roughly match top 6 forward production and a top 30 goaltender performance)
15 of 21 goalies (71%) had at least 1 “successful” season.
27 of 42 forwards (64%) had at least 1 “successful” season.
The 21 goalies averaged 3.86 “successful” seasons.
The 42 forwards averaged 3.57 “successful” seasons.
Players that had 4 or more “successful” seasons:
11 of 21 goalies (52%)
18 of 42 forwards (43%)
So by these criteria goalie picks were more successful. The only kicker is that the ones who worked out did take a little longer to arrive. Of the guys who had 4+ successful seasons, when did they arrive? (as a % of total picked):
Goalies:
Draft +1 0/21
Draft +2 0/21
Draft +3 1/21 (5%)
Draft +4 2/21 (10%)
Draft +5 8/21 (38%)
(I’d note that a number of the goalies (Fleury and Lehtonen among them) were starters for bad teams before they managed a .910 SV%)
Forwards:
Draft +1 1/42 (2%) (this is Rick Nash, picked #1 before Lehtonen in 2002)
Draft +2 1/42 (2%) (still Rick Nash)
Draft +3 9/42 (21%)
Draft +4 14/42 (33%)
Draft +5 18/42 (38%)
These number say (if you believe them) that if you draft a forward in the 1st you’re roughly 20% more likely to get someone who contributes in draft +3 and +4 compared to a goalie. But if you pick a goalie you’re roughly 10% more likely to get a player who has sustained (4+ seasons) success.
Ryan,
Question.
Why does Apple autocorrect add the indefinite article “a” in front of proper nouns?
Second question.
Why can’t my fat fingers type correctly on an iPad?
Last question.
Where’s the edit button?
And soon enough Hughes and Pettersen will be making $8-10m on their second contracts. And he will sign Markstrom and Toffoli to contracts that the Canucks will regret in a year or two. And the Canucks will still have no depth.
I’ll be honest with you.
When the Jets selected Mark Scheifele, I felt a genuine sense of pity and sorrow for their franchise.
While I’m not a Jets fan, they’re not the Flames or Canucks.
I felt almost the same way when Colorado hired Joe Sakic.
Oh great, another tire fire of a franchise hires a former hall of fame player to rescue them, I already know where this is going… Train meet wreck.
But Sakic like Scheifeke proved me way wrong.
Who knew Joe Sakic’s a freakin genius?
So that brings me to my point.
With the expansion draft looming, no cap space, a flat cap, and little help from the minors coming, little chance of making a run. what would a Joe Sakic do?
I don’t think he’d trade the 14.
Let’s be honest.
The Oilers have a bottom five prospect pool while the Canucks are top ten.
Podkolzin
Hoglander
Lind
Woo
Rathbone
Rafferty
Juolevi
DiPietro
Adding a hope and a prayer who might play in a couple of seasons at best, isn’t going to change reality.
That is not a fact.
Its unlikely that they will win the cup next year but them not winning is not a fact – and the fact that its not a fact is a fact.
Ryan,
Cue Godot and all of the posters who lament the idea of trading Nurse.
The way his contract is structured, you basically have to trade him.
Nurse has two years left in his contract.
The Oilers are not going to win the Stanley cup next year. That’s a fact.
After that, you have one year left on the contract before you basically have to pay free agency prices to extend Nurse..
On the basis of the above alone, trading him now is no-brainer.
Another way of looking at it…
Two years of a Nurse @5.6m has x value.
One year of Nurse @5.6m has y value.
Nurse at 5.6m at the trade deadline on his expiring contract has z value.
X >> y >>> z aka a second and conditional 5th.
Let’s be honest, the Canucks have played their cards. They can’t do more than try to keep whatever Benning has built together going forward as the “depth” contracts fall off. A lot of the division really is standing still actually.
Yep.
I’m sure the rest of the division will stand still waiting for the Oilers to catch up.
In my mind, next year is sort of a write-off in terms of our ability to improve the roster. The expansion draft is looming. We have no cap and we’re still stuck with Pouliot cap hit and K Russell.
If it weren’t for our cap constraints and the expansion draft, I might agree with you.
The key is for Kenny to stop digging.
He hasn’t.
Kassian. Chiasson. Archibald.
Marginal overpays in dollars and term continue.
If I were GM…
I’d find the cheapest backup goalie with the best stats willing to sign for one year only. After next season, Koskinen has one year left in his contract and I’d want better options.
I’d look at our LD depth chart and realize that Nurse’s value is depreciating as his contract runs. I’d shop Nurse for an Ehlers type player if available.
Benning is complicated. Ideally I’d get him on the cheapest two-year contract for expansion draft fodder. If there’s no deal there, I’d trade him or walk if necessary.
AA. I’d look for a cheap two year deal if he bites. I don’t think I would qualify with the risk involved.
Draft. I’d still go Jarvis. I’d look to trade our 1sr for need for the next draft.
I’d fill out the roster as necessary keeping as much cap space as I could.
We’re not making a run for the cup next season, but the one after that, look out.
Of course you can always keeps your powder dry and hope some random dude will make the Oilers competitive in a few years.
Sounds like a plan.
The team will always be a year away from that move.
Tick tock.
So you trade that pick (and some other stuff) for a JT Miller. Maybe you get lucky and that player blossoms like JT Miller did and goes from a 50 point player to a point per game player. Maybe.
You also need to buy out Neal and/or find some other way to clear cap.
And you need to choose to use that cap space (and the draft picks) on a goal scoring forward in lieu of a 3C and/or 2nd goalie. Which would help the team more?
Oh, and the “JT Miller” (best case scenario), if he works out, becomes a UFA around the time that draft pick is hitting stride. Before McDavid and Draisaitl’s deals expire. So then you’re looking for a replacement. Without a cheap in-house option available.
Is it the right kind of move? Maybe. At least as likely it isn’t, IMO.
I don’t disagree but, even if Jesse struggles early, I imagine he’d get plucked off waivers – shit, a higher AAV/cap hit might actually be the one thing that would lead to him clearing (likely still wouldn’t though).
This is 100% not the right time to trade the 14th overall pick (high skill at position of need (forward), could definitely arrive sooner than 3-5 years) for an established scoring forward that wouldn’t be expansion draft exempt and which would mandate other moves to find the cap.
The team is a year away from that move.
OriginalPouzar,
An AAV greater than the amount fully buryable in the AHL would be egregious.
I don’t know how low JP is willing to go, but if he’s firm on 1.5 million, I’d ask him to sign a 2 year deal. At worst, it’s a slight overpay. But it has the potential to be a value contract, especially in the 2nd year.
The key is to get him signed. If you want to recover max value on this asset, he has to be playing in the NHL. That’s the bottom line.
That pick won’t make an impact for 3-5 years.
Tick tock.
You desperately want the Oilers to trade that pick hey?
That 10% deferral isn’t a holdback, its a true deferral – it will be unconditionally provided to the player (i think in two years).
Yes, there is escrow (that is really a forfeit this season – players will claw zero back), yes there are taxes, etc. – I still think Jesse would make more money than he currently does in Liiga. It actually might be close but I think it’ll be more.
Either way, I don’t think money will be a main issue here and isn’t Jesse’s issue. He had an offer in the KHL which, presumably, was more money.
In any even, if Holland agrees to anything more than his QO, I’ll be surprised if its anything more than nominal.
Very nice post!
You should post more.
The dire need is to trade the pick for an established goal scoring forward.
Nothing else matters at all.
I like Jarvis for my money if I were making the selection.
That being said, at least we’re not talking about a reach.
McKenzie has Guhle at 14 and Holloway at 16.
While I’ve never liked the false dichotomy of drafting for need vs best player available, let’s be honest…
We have a window open right now today with two elite players in their respective primes.
We have a dire need to draft a scoring forward. Not a Centre, not a right or left winger, just any type of scoring forward.
Again, it’s one thing to argue against drafting for need if you take a right handed Centre instead of a left shot winger… but less so if you don’t care if it’s a winger, Centre, or which shot the player has.
While some defensemen are making the NHL much earlier than previously, generally d men take more time to make the NHL than forwards.
The certainty of the gap between players in the 10-20 range isn’t big enough to necessarily defend selecting a defenseman vs a forward.
In a hypothetical situation where the BPA is always a left shot defenseman, they’re not exactly liquid assets for making trades to address other roster issues. You can’t keep drafting left shot defenseman forever with your first pick. Ideally, you only want 3-4 on an active roster.
Chiarelli notwithstanding, defensemen rarely have trade value between the day they’re drafted and until they’ve established some NHL ability.
Remember. A player who signs a notional $1 million contract, only receives $700K in actual salary next season with $100K indefinitely deferred.
I can.
I can’t imagine JP accepting a contract not in 7 figures
Archibald got outscored 34-19 5×5 and was outscored no matter where he played in the lineup. He looks good via the eye test but the results weren’t there. Yeah, good on the PK, but he should have a 1 year contract near the league minimum.
Archibald was a UFA coming off a strong season helping the team with tertiary scoring, PK strength and short term ability up the lineup.
Puljujarvi is an RFA with no arbitration rights coming off a great season in Finland.
These are not comparable signings. Caleb Jones signed for 2 X $850K earlier this year.
I anticipate that Jesse is a “better” player than Archie in the NHL but that is not proven at this point.
So, MAF starting tonight.
After Lehner goes in back to back games and finishes off with 3 shutouts in the last series they go with MAF?
I don’t get it.
I can’t imagine Holland offering a contract in the 7 figures.
NEW for The Athletic: How does a team counter a truly diabolical opponent? Fight fire with fire. The Oilers could find a world-class agitator in the draft.
https://theathletic.com/2048190/2020/09/06/lowetide-the-oilers-could-find-a-world-class-agitator-in-the-draft/
Fair enough — I didn’t see your previous comparison but will take your word for it. If he turns out to be an above average starter, that is definitely more valuable than a forward.
Holloways skating in his size is very intriguing
Jaxon,
Thanks… excellent collection… I found it odd that Pronman didn’t even have Mercer in the top 15… were going to get a great skill player at 14… no question.
Love Makar.
The Avs are my second team.
I love what Sakic has done which is why I follow them.
It’s a weird type of fandom. I actually made the choice to follow the team vs being an Oilers fan that was more something just ingrained in my childhood.
On the other hand, I merely like how the team is run and plays. I don’t feel much either way when they win or lose.
Back to the AJHL, obviously there’s Makar and Parayko… Matt Benning and his draft-eligible brother, Michael are also from the AJHL. Michael’s a small / shifty / high skill player at 1.39 ppg. If we had a second rounder, he would be a great selection.
My point was that it’s been a long time since a quality forward was drafted from that league, so it’s hard to compare numbers.
While Makar had 50 pts in 57 regular season games, he also plays a ton of PP1 minutes. Holloway probably won’t see PP1 minutes in his rookie NHL season regardless of which team drafts him.
The NCAA is a huge step up from the AJHL, just look at Holloway’s conversion factor.
(Sorry, I’m just being a jerk now)
IMO there’s no question getting an above average starter with pick #14 would be a great result.
In terms of ‘Oilers cannot miss’, well that’s a tough one. I don’t remember the numbers, but what’s the likelihood of a #14 pick playing 200 NHL games? 50/50 or something in that range I think. It’s not a top 5 pick, the probability of an impact player at #14 isn’t all that great.
In terms of Askarov vs a forward, I’ve gone through this with Godot. I’m personally convinced (looking at the numbers) the chances of getting a quality NHL goalie with a 1st round pick is no less than getting a quality forward from the same pick. And IMO a goalie is every bit as significant a long term need for the Oilers as a forward is. That said, there will definitely be some nice looking forward prospects there at 14! I don’t know the actual prospects well enough to say if Askarov would be the right pick but goalies not panning out isn’t part of the equation.
I’m not really concerned about whether Askarov can play in 2,3 or even 5 or 6 years. If I’m playing the long game, I take Askarov. When McDavid and Draisaitl and Nurse contacts recipe I really want to be able to point to the new franchise goalie and say, “We have a real short at winning (another?) Cup with this guy.” Will you be willing to sign at a reasonable rate? Seeing Vasilevsky on his way up probably helped convince TBL players to stay the course.
Oops
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kt908SMIVzlhsZMIpTAq1Np3ujXtiGLuHiXcZ6_3jN0/edit?usp=drivesdk
Should be good now
Archibald got 2 years @ $1.5 and JP is a better player right now plus has upside. Though to be fair, Archibald’s contract is an overpay too.
Savoie played on a stacked team and has a reputation as a floater. Two way hockey is not his thing. Maybe he will learn that in the NCAA but right now he’s just hanging out getting points. NCAA is a big step up from AJHL.
Almost every higher ranking forvard, who will be probably available at #14, was born in october or september. Only Jarvis was born in february.
He was okay and by no means the reason why the Flyers lost. His overall numbers (.926 sv%) were buoyed by some poor performances by Montreal. He still seems a bit inconsistent but he is only 22. I’m torn on Askarov. If he becomes as good as Hart I would be happy. The risk of the goalie not panning out scares the crap out of me. The Oilers cannot miss on this pick.
For sure, don’t disregard any of the elements. I guess I was just reacting to NCAA freshman NHLe being a glaring inefficiency that could/should be exploited.
Yes, NHLe likely undervalues 17 year old college players (18 yo in this case I guess). But by NHLe this player isn’t anywhere near the 1st round. NHLe is being ignored in Holloway’s rankings already. It may not be a true representation of his offense but IMO his actual scoring rates should rightly knock him down a bit.
He seems to be ranked in the latter teens by most sources: https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/322111/dylan-holloway. LT listening to NHLe (a bit) and pushing him down to #25 looks 100% reasonable to me.
In terms of what NHLe for a college rookie *should* be, I don’t have the answer. I do know that Holloway scored less than most forwards drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds out of college in relatively recent years. (I looked pretty recently regarding Holloway. I don’t have the exact list unfortunately and don’t have time now to re-do it),
Anyway, at minimum I do think we can fairly say that Holloway scored less than the majority of his NCAA freshman peers who were notable prospects.