What The Hell I’ve Got

by Lowetide

Evan Bouchard scored last night, he has a goal and an assist in four games this season. He ranks No. 3 among rookie NHL defencemen in points per game (behind Ty Smith of New Jersey and Pierre-Olivier Joseph of the Pittsburgh Penguins) among blue who have played more than one game. He won’t win the Calder Trophy, but if they played him every game, with some power-play looks? Nah. It’ll never happen.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

OILERS AFTER 15 GAMES

  • Oilers 2015-16: 5-10-0, 10 points; goal differential -8
  • Oilers 2016-17: 9-5-1, 19 points; goal differential +6
  • Oilers 2017-18: 6-8-1, 13 points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers 2018-19: 8-6-1, 17 points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers 2019-20: 10-4-1, 21 points; goal differential +8
  • Oilers 2020-21: 8-7-0, 16 points, goal differential 0

This impressive run (5-1-0 after starting 3-6-0) has the Oilers poised to make a nice run this month. The next 10 days will tell us a lot, and Tippett continues to find out about this year’s roster.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • At home to: Ottawa (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary, Ottawa, Ottawa, Montreal (Expected: 2-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Calgary (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Toronto (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
  • Current results: 3-1-0, 6 points in 4 games

I have the Oilers going 2-3-0 against Montreal, Winnipeg and Calgary in the next week and a bit. One hopes Ethan Bear returns soon, and Caleb Jones too. Of course, when a coach wins, he is often hesitant to tweak the roster. One good thing: Tippett has been on mad shuffle all year long with his added roster pool.

LINES, LAST NIGHT

  • Nuge-McDavid-Puljujarvi played 13:25, going 9-9 shots, 0-1 goals, 4-2 HDSC and 13-12 Corsi five on five. Seven shots for the line, Nuge had one stunning chance from a 97 shot but he can’t score goals in February. Sticks from Death Valley. Puljujarvi was moving well, had a couple of great chances and is starting to take charge of situations. That will help McDavid, who often can’t carry the puck through the neutral zone because of double coverage.
  • Kahun-Draisaitl-Yamamoto played 12:28, going 0-10 shots, 0-1 goals, 0-5 HDSC and 0-16 Corsi five on five. I don’t believe we’ve seen a stats set like that from a skill trio before. That’s ultimate awful. Draisaitl hit the post at the end of the game and had three shots on goal. He was aggressive on the power play, Oilers rarely got set partly because of it.
  • Ennis-Khaira-Archibald played 9:04 together, 4-8 shots, 2-0 goals and 1-2 HDSC and 7-13 Corsi five on five. Khaira had two assists and is playing the best hockey in memory. He has made a difference, five on five added to his PK acumen. His waiver wire experience may have been a wakeup call. Ennis had a takeaway and worked hard all night, his speed is a definite asset. Archibald had an assist and a double minor. A great job by this new makeshift line that has played 18 minutes together at five on five and is 3-0 goal differential.
  • Shore-Turris-Chiasson played 7:40, 0-6 shots, no goals, no HDSC and 3-9 Corsi five on five. Shore and Chiasson each had assists, Turris had all zeros on NST’s individual stats. That’s at five on five, 25 columns. His line was absolutely the fourth line last night. Shore did good work getting the puck out of danger during a nervous countdown of the clock in the third period.

DEFENSE AND GOALIE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Barrie played 21:24, 12-21 shots, 2-1 goals, 3-6 HDSC and 20-29 Corsi five on five. This pairing played a ton, each man scoring a goal, six shots between them and each man had two giveaways. This pairing has too much chaos for my liking, would like to see Bear back in. Barrie’s loft shot from deep in his end was easily turned over for a dangerous look very late in the game. Koskinen doesn’t stop that, we’re having a different conversation this morning.
  • Lagesson-Larsson played 13:06, 2-7 shots, no goals, 1-2 HDSC and 6-10 Corsi five on five. Lordy this is a low-event pairing, well shy of a shot per minute total at five on five. Larsson was effective on defense, tough as nail, and punishing.
  • Koekkoek-Bouchard played 12:39, going 4-9 shots, 1-1 goals, 2-2 HDSC and 5-15 Corsi five on five. Bouchard’s goal was a seeing-eye floater from seven miles away, but it was deadly effective. Goalie didn’t see it, and there’s no way that baby made a sound. Bouchard’s soft wristers are silent runnings. Koekkoek was caught with Dadanov behind him for the 3-2 goal that tightened the third period greatly. Bouchard had a takeaway, three shot attempts (two made it) and four hits. Koekkoek is imo an upgrade on Russell, but Monday night’s numbers (12:18, going 3-6 shots, no goals, 3-2 HDSC and 10-10 Corsi) with Russell-Bouchard were better. Maybe he’s from the Magic Rodeo. Koekkoek was a monster on that four-minute kill.
  • Mikko Koskinen had a nice bounce back game, stopping 40 of 42, .952. He stopped six of eight high danger, both shots difficult chances. He had some issues with a few shots, leading to rebounds, but saved several Oilers by stopping great chances after defensive mistakes.

2020 NHL DRAFT NHLE

There are so many NHL games it’s difficult to keep track of the prospects this season. I’m going to run the NHLE’s by year from time to time so we can have some idea about what’s going on. For the 2020 draft, there’s much to discuss.

  • Dylan Holloway 52.3
  • Carter Savoie 30.0
  • Tyler Tullio 4-9-13 in 19 games (Slovak, no NHLE)
  • Maxim Berezkin 18.2
  • Filip Engaras 12.1
  • Jeremias Lindewall 4.3

I think it’s fair to say that Holloway is on a trajectory that suggests he’ll be considered great value for where he was picked on draft day. Savoie is trending in a good way as well, crazy value for No. 100 overall. Tullio needs to play in a league we can measure, although his OHL totals at age 17 (28.2) implies a real NHL prospect. The Russian Berezkin also looks like a real prospect. Tyler Wright surprised the hell out of me, and these short months later he and the Oilers scouting staff should be proud of their work at the 2020 draft. We’ll see, but good to great arrows here.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning despite the cold weather, we get started at 10 on TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will break down last night’s game and we’ll discuss goaltending and that ghastly stats set for the Draisaitl line. At 11, Matthew Scianitti from TSN will talk CFL free agency at 11. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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maudite

useless update:

Mike Smith is one game away from having a 3 game sample size, with a save percentage that is unsustainably high….prepare to plan parade route for cup soon!

Last edited 5 months ago by maudite
Jaxon

Here are some interesting comparables. All big, fast responsible players (I’ve only included NCAA Draft+1 seasons):

PLAYER – PPG
Dylan Holloway (C/LW) – 1.92
Kyle Connor (LW) – 1.87
Brock Boeser (RW) – 1.43
Jonathan Toews (C) – 1.35
Dylan Larkin (C) – 1.34
Alex Newhook (C) – 1.24


Or Draft+1 Most PPG since 200-2001:

PLAYERPPG
Dylan Holloway (C/LW)1.92
Kyle Connor (LW)1.87
Ben Eaves (C/RW)1.7
Jaden Schwartz (LW)1.57
Andy Hilbert (C)1.56
Michael Cammalleri (W/C)1.52
Zach Parise (LW/RW)1.49
Chris Higgins (LW)1.46
Dany Heatley (LW/RW)1.46
Clayton Keller (W/C)1.45
Brock Boeser (RW)1.43
Jonathan Toews (C)1.35
Dylan Larkin (C)1.34
Thomas Vanek (LW/RW)1.34

10 of 13 are impact players
7 of 13 are All-Stars

That’s pretty good odds that the best of them will be an impact player.
The 3 that haven’t been All-Stars Connor, Schwartz, and Cammalleri. Connor might still get there. Schwartz might too. Cammalleri led the playoffs in goals in 2010, and Schwartz had 12 goals and 20pts when he won the Cup.

Last edited 5 months ago by Jaxon
who

I would be more interested in seeing Holloway’s current season being compared to other players 2nd college seasons. Cause that’s really what we’re talking about here.
I hate the draft +1 comparisons because it combines 2 birth years. Apples to oranges.

jp

‘2nd college season’ would combine birth years every bit as much as ‘draft +1’ would it not?

who

Only if the players didn’t go directly from high school to college.
I would just like to see a comparison of 19 year old seasons based on birth year, rather than this draft +1, draft +2 nonsense.
Pet peeve of mine.

jp

As you like.

‘Draft +’, ‘college season’ and ‘birth year’ can all vary be 1 year less a day. I don’t think it makes any real difference which one is used.

Jaxon

Many player’s 1st year of college is after they’re drafted. Most USNDP players go this route. They’re on the National Development Program Team until they’re drafted then commit to a college for their draft+1 season. Others, like Parise, Eichel and Holloway enter college prior to being drafted. In that case, it can put them 2 years apart or more rather than just 1.

Jaxon

2nd College Season would be even worse, as some players don’t enter college until they’re 20 or even older, while some like Holloway enter when they’re 18. So you want to compare some players’ 21-year-old season to Holloway’s 19-year-old season? This is no different than using birth year, except that it is their age at the start of the season rather than in the middle of the season. As mentioned there will be a 364-day variance no matter what the cutoff date. But at least there isn’t a 2 or more year gap possible as there would be if you used the 2nd college season.

hunter1909

Last chance to play Death March™ entries ok until puck drop vs Montreal.

Congratulations to the many new and satisfied new Marchers™

link to the game

Hunter’s 1909’s 2020-21 Death March™ is back for another season

You can register and vote here:

https://www.oilersdeathmarch.com

Hurry! Deadline is Approaching! Less then 24 Hours left!

Last edited 5 months ago by hunter1909
Bulging Twine

James Hamblin, who must be on an AHL deal with Bakersfield, was Medicine Hat’s leading scorer last year with:
63-36-56-92

OriginalPouzar

Ya, he signed a 2-year AHL deal.

Hopefully he’s a better AHL player than the last WHL undrafted overage signed by the org – Cam Hebig.

Very similar numbers in their over-age seasons

Bulging Twine

very
Hebig 66-41-49-90

Bulging Twine

Of Goalies who played the most games on their teams in the Q last year Rodrigue was second in save % at .918. Which is a good # for the Q

Bulging Twine

First was Kevin Mandolese, a Ottawa 6th round pick, at .925

OriginalPouzar

Rodrigue was the best tender in the Q after he returned from the World Juniors.

SVR

Test

Yeti

Am I the only creature here who immediately thought ‘Stevie Vaughan Ray’?

Halfwise

Habs score on their first shot.

The whole game so far looks like NAIT vs SAIT but without the energy.

OriginalPouzar

JJ Khaira with a P/60 of 5.23, second in the NHL (min 40 minutes played).

Of course, when I sorted by min 50 minutes played, JJ didn’t show up so there is a small chance that there should be a sample size warning…..

OriginalPouzar

Price starts tonight for the Habs – I would presume this means Jake Allen, who has been far superior this year via the numbers, starts tomorrow against the Oilers.

OriginalPouzar

https://apnews.com/article/nfl-business-nhl-football-web-services-5720b382cc681c7db9e7c871513456b8

The league has reached an agreement with Amazon Web Services to put all its video and data on the cloud. The hope is to provide everyone from coaches, executives and players to fans an integrated look at the game with the aid of new camera angles, artificial intelligence and machine learning.

knighttown

So HH or someone else in the know, what is the speculation on how the North will get to 48 games if that truly is the scuttlebutt.

It would be unfair to have them sprint through 48 games and then take a week or two off to wait to start playoffs so if that is the new number are they just going to redo the schedule and allow the North a more relaxed pace to let others catch up?

Harpers Hair

I think a more relaxed pace would be more likely but that confers a benefit to the North Division teams.

Darth Tu

Surely it would have to be a more relaxed pace for the Northern division teams? Otherwise you’d have us end abruptly 2-3 weeks before the USA divisions, you’d have all the Canadian teams going into the playoffs completely cold.

Primetime

Do you think it’s possible they just make sure that everyone in each division has played the same number of games? The divisions don’t cross over, and they play each other for the first 2 rounds as well? Does it matter if the North plays all 56 games while another division only gets in 52? They don’t affect each other…finish at the same time and move on to the playoffs. They are essentially 4 separate leagues right now…winner of each league meet in a super playoff for the Cup

Harpers Hair

That causes a host of other issues.

Justthestatsman

If teams end up playing an uneven number of games and they resort to points percentages, they may have no alternative but to add in a play-in round again.

leadfarmer

Probably will have to take a spring break

Ancient Oilers Fan

They may cut the north division down to something divisible by six (54 or 48) so nobody gets a free bingo space like playing an extra game against Vancouver.

OriginalPouzar

Just because one or two or three of the US divisions may be forced to play less than 48 games (or an uneven schedule within the division), doesn’t mean the North division will need to do the same. So far so good… one day at a time.

Harpers Hair

This is nonsense…competitive balance is an absolute priority for Bettman.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure why I’m responding to your given how awful of a person you’ve proven to be but i guess I’m weak.

Fulfilling obligations to the rightsholders’ supersedes competitive balance (in the current environment) as we clearly saw by expanding the play-in by four teams to ensure that the Habs and Rangers were included.

If a division can only play 48 games, that will not stop another division from playing 56 as planned if able – even if it causes some controversy in the Vezina voting.

Crazy Pedestrian

Another issue with having one division play more games than the rest is the player scoring stats becoming skewed towards players in that division. Unless they hand out awards based on PPG which can make things real messy.

OriginalPouzar

That really only affects the Art Ross and Rocket, no?

Harpers Hair

It could also affect the Lindsay and Norris winners which are often given to point producers…not to mention the Vezina in a close race.

An unbalanced schedule in GP would be an absolute nightmare.

Primetime

Not sure about absolute nightmare.

  • I agree that the priority will be to give the rights holders as many games to televise as possible, especially in the north division
  • If there are uneven games and they go to point percentage, it won’t affect the north if they play all their games, standings will look the same
  • As for awards, as mentioned, that only counts for Art Ross and Richard. They would count on the integrity of voters to be able to tell the adjust for a few points difference based on games played. If they can’t, it’s just like years where someone loses out because of injury (McDavid/RNH for the Calder)
  • The Art Ross/Richard leaders are all in the North anyway!
  • This has already happened to some degree…all the teams did not play the same amount of games last seasonand they had to go to points percentage which actually DID change the standings. There was some grumbling but no disaster
Last edited 5 months ago by Primetime
OriginalPouzar

Going to points percentage was why the Oilers had to play in the play-in and the starts got a bye to the final 16.

Primetime

Yes I realize that, but if the North all play the same amount of games, and all against the same people, the points percentage standings will mirror the points standings in the division. That was not the case last year. They went conference wide, and everyone had played a different number of games and against different opponents

OriginalPouzar

Tullio (and the other OHL players) have been recalled from Slovakia.

It looks like the OHL has a return to play structure – 24 games, starting in April.

Scott Wheeler

Sources: The OHL sent a memo to teams today with plans for restart:
– 24-game season
– Four hub cities
– March quarantines at home before arriving in host city
– April 2-4 weekend target for start to season
– Government mandated quarantines for imports

*Subject to gov. approval

——————-

Now, is the Ontario government still on that “no contact” road they were a few months ago?

OriginalPouzar

It’ll be interesting to see if Price or Allen play tonight – presumably the Oilers get the other tender tomorrow.

Which tender do the Oilers “want” to face?

Price has the name cache

On the other hand, Allen has had the MUCH better season

Further to that, the Oilers have generally fared well against Price over the years

With that said, Price was rock solid against the Oilers this season

wolf8888

I vote for Hogberg!

knighttown

This made me laugh. He is remarkably bad isn’t he.

Im not sure I can think of another NHLer so laughably out of his league. I would guess he is going through some sort of Salo confidence issue and wasn’t this bad previously.

wolf8888

Did you see the picture(I think Barrie’s goal) where his whole body is out of the net except his right leg? It’s bizarre. I feel bad for him. He must have a lot of noise in his head right now. I am suffering from a concussion at the moment so I empathize.

kgo

Drai’s goal last week was even worse….Drai had no intention of shooting….looked up and saw half the net open farside and probably thought…”okay shit I guess I’ll shoot”

Last edited 5 months ago by kgo
Harpers Hair

Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) Tweeted:
Again, I encourage fans to monitor points % more than points this season with the uncertainty on 56 games. Your current top 10:

TB, .864
VGK, .850
Bos, .818
Tor, .808
Fla, .800
Mtl, .750
Car, .700
Phi, .692
Col, .682
Dal, .650

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1359508368826765316?s=20

Harpers Hair

Quite a bit of chatter today south of the border that the NHL may soon have to move to a 48 game schedule as dozens of games get postponed.

McSorley33

It sure seems almost inevitable…..

godot10

Points percentage across divisions is a ridiculous thing to look at when all the play is intra-division.

OriginalPouzar

Yup and just because one or two or three of the US divisions may be forced to play less than 48 games (or an uneven schedule within the division), doesn’t mean the North division will need to do the same. So far so good… one day at a time.

Pescador

Lots of great responses to my questions about Holloway’s NHLE this morning.
Thanks all,

McSorley33

What is the record for, consecutive, failing grades at the Cult of Hockey?

Asking for a friend of Kyle Turris

Shore-Turris-Chiasson played 7:40, 0-6 shots, no goals, no HDSC and 3-9 Corsi five on five. 

Last edited 5 months ago by McSorley33
Pescador

Hmm
if you were a real friend you wouldn’t ask,
You would just know

McSorley33

Very true!

hunter1909

It says 22 hours on the site left to register for death march™(but really its Montreal game puck drop)

Hunter’s 1909’s 2020-21 Death March™ is back for another season

You can register and vote here:

https://www.oilersdeathmarch.com

Hurry!

jp

Are entries modifiable hunter?

I did mine on my phone and ended up mistakenly entering 0 for the tiebreak. Can you delete my entry so I can add it again if I can’t change it?

hunter1909

Let me see what I can do.

hunter1909

Just deleted it JP.

Go on, have another go!

the death march team

jp

Thank you, will update. Looking forward to the prizes this year!

jp

Just deleted it JP. 

Haha,

So I went back and tried to sign in with my original info. It didn’t work so I figured you just deleted the whole account.

I created a new account using the same info as previously. When I logged in with the new account the same (wrong) numbers popped up for me without me being prompted to enter them.

Thoughts? I really don’t want to miss out on the prizes…

jp

JP2.0 used a different email to sign up for death march 2021.

You can delete the old bet, or leave it so I have two!

Best regards to the death march team.

Alpine

I played around on NST to look into Kahun’s linemates in CHI, and he genuinely seemed to drag his centres to positive numbers, notably Strome and Anisimov who did quite poorly away from him.

Even Toews had a 55% GF and 48% xGF with Kahun as opposed to 50% GF and 46 xGF% w/o Kahun.

Kahun had a 58% GF (!) and a 47% xGF away from Toews. A little lucky for sure and I assume he had easier minutes away from Toews but those are better stats than he’s had here. Chicago was not a good team in 18-19 to put his numbers in context.

In PIT he mostly played with McCann and played some with Malkin. He was a quite a drag on Malkin (59 xGF% w/o Kahun) but they were over 50% in every category together except GF (46%).

I think this player is okay, and good value on his current deal. He might do better with less minutes on the third line, based on how good his results were with McCann and Anisimov, over 50% or close in goals, xG, CF, etc.

Last edited 5 months ago by Alpine
Pescador

So you’re saying we need to trade for McCann,
Good thinking Alpine

Scungilli Slushy

Hopefully they get rested and come out focused and ready to work, on the right side of the puck.

Or the Flabs will spank them good. Tired or not.

I really hope Jones has the same bounce as JK. He is so much more talented than his competition.

Get your head together Caleb! Nail it down before Samu comes over.

Harpers Hair

In the wake of yesterday’s blood bath at Bell radio stations, I followed up to see if their claim that the “Funny” format had proven successful in Calgary.

Well, other than being the cheapest form of broadcasting you could possibly imagine, that was a huge falsehood.

Funny AM 1060 in Calgary is dead last in the Calgary radio market and it’s not particularly close.

https://mediaincanada.com/2020/12/10/a-deep-dive-into-2020s-latest-radio-ppm-numbers/

It makes me wonder why Bell doesn’t just hand back these licenses as well as the ones they own branded as Bloomberg Radio in multiple markets since they too are drawing flies.

Must be tax write-offs.

Shane

Well we wouldn’t want them paying any taxes on their federally subsidized dividends..

McSorley33

Yeah, I realize this does not effect people in Edmonton so not much sympathy.

But here in Winnipeg – the sports talk format loss will be a big loss.

As you mentioned yesterday, we are left with just the Jets radio rights ( CJOB) carrier and they are primarily a news / talk radio format.

Suffice it so say, there won’t be any objectivity brought to the hockey scene here.

While I understand the economics of it – it is still very disappointing to see so many lose their jobs.

Harpers Hair

Which station carries Bomber games in Winnipeg?

McSorley33

CJOB – 680 – they have both Jets ( just acquired them) and CJOB been broadcasting Bomber games for years now.

tileguy

I see it does better than sports net 650 in Van.

Harpers Hair

Tried to listen to Sportsnet 650 this morning and it’s was horrawful

I would imagine some of their on air staff are looking over their shoulders today as the shutdown of TSN 1040 has freed up some very talented broadcasters.

Harpers Hair

Also of note…Canucks coach Travis Green called several of the TSN staff personally yesterday to wish them well.

#classact

McSorley33

Very classy.

Harpers Hair

Just listened to a couple hours of TSN 1260 in Edmonton.

What a snooze fest.

Very slow paced with tons of dead air.

The highlight was a discussion about the best donuts in Edmonton.

A segment with Tom Gazzola of the Oilers was basically about whether or not he would miss the national anthem prompted by the situation with the Dallas Mavericks.

Zero actual insight into the Oilers.

Crazy Pedestrian

Most of the good radio talk is before 2pm. Specifically 10am-12pm. Some guy named Lowetide hosts the show then.

OriginalPouzar

The morning show with Dusty and Eric is great and so is the Gregor shaw (with Strudy) – they are each 4 hours so, of course, there is a lot of filler but on-air chemistry helps (in particular Dusty and Eric).

Harpers Hair

Listened to Gregor and Strudwick…nothing that a cattle prod and a good producer wouldn’t cure. (although some compelling content wouldn’t hurt).

The traffic girl has a great voice but sounds like she’s reading a perfume commercial.

Last edited 5 months ago by Harpers Hair
Harpers Hair

Haven’t listened for a while…will try and do so tomorrow.

SwedishPoster

Lavoie with an assist and Kemp with a goal tonight for Väsby, their team lost 3-6 though, just way too leaky defensively.

Shane

Thanks SP!

Hows Kemp been looking defensively?

SwedishPoster

After some early trouble he’s looking better, needed to adapt a bit, there’s a lot of skating in Hockeyallsvenskan so you have to move your feet constantly. I don’t think he had experienced that at his former levels so his positioning suffered but it’s improved now. Not the quickest feet so extra important for him to keep moving. He’s strong in battles, clears the crease, pretty smart, has surprised me by not being a complete black hole offensively. Outside of a major step forward I’d say he needs at least two full AHL seasons before he’s close to being an option for the big league though. Having said that Allsvenskan has been one hell of a growing ground for Oiler D this year with both Bouchard and Lagesson looking good so who knows…

Not sure there’s massive upside but certainly can see a potential solid bottom pairing, lots of PK guy

Didn’t see tonight’s game but seems like he played his off side btw.

OriginalPouzar

Thanks for the detailed update.

From what I’ve seen (prior to this season), Kemp’s skating needs ALOT of work – it simply isn’t close enough to being able to compete at the NHL level. Playing in a “skating league” as you mention, on the big ice, should really force him to work on his skating I would think.

Yup, 2 years in the AHL for sure and, even though I am a solid fan of Kemp’s he’s likely a distant bell to ever play an NHL game.

With that said, player’s do improve their skating in their early to mid 20s and he’s got some real nice skills if he can get the boots up to speed.

Yeti

RE: Khaira – is my memory stuck on loop, or doesn’t he typically put up a good run of games each season where we feel he’s turned a corner … yet the sustain does not remain. I worry we’ve seen this kind of flourish before from Khaira only for it to fade pretty quickly. Hope I’m wrong.

Shane

This is how I see it too. I’m cautiously optimistic but it seems like he does this every year. Although these last few games seem like some of the best in his career.

Hopefully this is JJs new software upgrade and not just another glitch in the programming.

OriginalPouzar

Khaira’s NHL career has indeed been plagued by inconsistency but I don’t think he’s had a 3-game stretch like this since likely 2017/18, certainly not last year.

pts2pndr

I think your observation is correct but I have also noted that he has been moved around a lot and used with a multitude of others. I wonder if part of his going in the tank so to speak is losing confidence due the shuffling of line mates, and change from wing to centre.

OriginalPouzar

Slater Koekkoe was great on the one PK shift last night but, in my opinion, is 4LD, if not 5LD on the depth chart – behind Jones and battling with Russell. He started off the season fantastic but, since week one, has been quite meh.

Its time to find a way to get Jones in, in my opinion.

——————-

Lagesson/Larsson being low event – well, that’s exactly what we want from that pairing, no?

With that said, William Lagesson, 10th in the NHL in P/60 at 5 on 5 (min 50 minutes) for d-man. Was top five before last night.

Larsson was the mean, SOB, defensive beast last night that really helps this team.

—————–

Haven’t listened to the avail yet, but Gazzola mentioned that Tip intimated that 7D might be the way to go when Bear is healthy.

I worry about this – the team was tired last night. Drai had his worst game of the year and its likely not a coincidence that it was the 3rd game in 4 nights and he played almost 30 and 23 minutes in the prior two.

11F sets up too many minutes for Drai/McDavid – it can’t be sustained.

At the same time, none of the 4 RD should play the left side so, what can be done?

Trevor457

I would rotate the right d. Put Larsson in when they anticipate a physical game, Bouchard when they want more skill. Occasionally give bear or Barrie a rest during these 3 games in 4 days stretches. Keep everyone fresh during the compact schedule. That’s also assuming all 4 are healthy, there will be more injuries.

Bling

7D is intriguing to me because Tipp can create all kinds of mismatches. Here’s how:

1 – Bear back on the top pairing stabilizes top opp EV defence.
2 – Lagesson/Larsson can lock down their minutes.
3 – Nurse/Bear/Lagesson/Larsson are all good on the PK.

That means that Bouchard and Barrie can run like gazelles against weak opp.

The bottom six is waking up, and it’s not because they are finishing, it’s because the defence is.

Tipp does not have to double shift McDavid or Drai on the 4th line.

If Khaira and Turris/Haas are in the lineup, you can double shift a winger against weaker opp. Or, run 3D on a 4th line shift, third D being F3 in the offensive zone.

Louis Levasseur

Just listended to the discussion between Lowetide and McCurdy regarding Kassian’s injury. As I mentioned in a post the other day, I don’t think we can really criticize the decision to fight because of the injury. For sure he is a top 12 forward, but he wasn’t engaged at all for a long time. To me, that fight was exactly what the doctor ordered to get Kassian engaged. Obviously a bad result, but had he not been injured, we may well be talking about how Kassian has played his best hockey these past 2 games.

McNuge93

Did they know exactly what the injury is?

kgo

It’s too bad Kassian chose to fight possibly the league’s best fighter…Gudbrandson is certainly in the top 3

OriginalPouzar

When Coach T. used the “understatement” in reference to Kass needing to be more engaged and aggressive, I believe the hope was for a most consistent aggressive forecheck – getting on on the d-men and getting bangs in and being more aggressive in battles all over the ice.

I don’t think he was looking for a staged fight.

With that said, I don’t have an issue with the fight – I don’t think it would have done much to change Kass’ play on the ice. Maybe it would have led to him playing the type of game that has brought success but I’m not convinced. I guess we’ll never know.

At the same time, Kass shouldn’t need the fans or need a staged fight to get engaged and play a strong game – he’s approaching 30, he’s a vet, he should be able to play his game consistently without external stimulants.

Bling

How about Khaira and Ennis?

Khaira 4.87 points/60, GF% 57, xGF% 34
Ennis 1.67 points/60, GF% 50, xGF% 62

Small sample sizes and of course there will be regression.

Khaira just needs to be decent at evens. His disciplined physical plays / 60 is off the charts. His PK ability on top of that makes him a very effective player.

Ennis is a real useful player to have in the bottom six. That toe drag goal he scored in the first Ottawa game (or third) is a high skill play. If you want to play with the Leafs and Habs, you need bottom six guys who can make those kinds of plays.

Bank Shot

McDavid needs 4 points in his next 2 games to beat Crosby to 500 points. Something to keep an eye on.

SwedishPoster

Wasn’t pretty but two points are two points and getting them without McDrai contributing on the scoresheet is found money really. Koskinen got one back after the Flames debacle.

Don’t know if getting waived lit a fire under Jujhar or getting a goal against Calgary gave him confidence but nice to see him skate and play with purpose.

Bouchard’s skating looks like an asset rather than an issue. He did look better as the season went on with Södertälje but I thought it was just him getting used to the league. Nice to see. Needs to clean up defensively, get stronger defending one on one and on the boards but with the puck on his stick he’s fantastic. And I love his big wind up slapper, his wrister is nore efficient but his slapshot reminds me of the big shots from the blueline in the 90s.

In other news I got the second dose of the vaccine today so in a few weeks I should be covered for a while at least. No side effects other than some tenderness in the injection spot after the first one but could go to the gym the morning after. Nothing at all so far after the second one.

OriginalPouzar

Atta boy – congrats.

As a healthy (as far as I know) 43 year old Canadian, I’m looking at the winter……. well, unless I can source something when I’m in Uganda/Rwanda in July/August (fingers crossed).

Fuge Udvar

Loved that little give and go play Puljujarvi had with Larsson.

I think it’s indicative of why he has looked good with McDavid. He tries to make plays out there with everybody on the ice instead of just dumping it to McDavid in double coverage and hoping he can go superhuman.

OriginalPouzar

Many trial wingers are guilty of simply moving the puck towards McDavid any time they get in it the neutral or offensive zone. Jesse was, once upon a time, guilty of the same – he no longer is and he now makes plays with the puck consistently.

Jesse’s passing has impressed me – he is a talented accurate passer over the last few weeks.

knighttown

Lots of talk of fatigue with 97/29 but I think the answer is a little simpler. After getting destroyed, Ottawa played among the most disciplined “shadow” games I’ve seen in recent years against BOTH players. The covered both players when they didn’t have the puck even if they were 150 feet from the opposing net. McDavid has dealt with it before (Kadri comes to mind) and it really seems to bother him. Leon has never dealt with it before (in the NHL) and he absolutely looked lost and I can’t blame him. There was one shift where Kahun was skating up the right wing, Leon was 6 feet left of him and the checker ignored Kahun and stayed on Leon. Kahun actually turned that into something by taking the blueline and cutting across the middle to a scoring area. There’s a lesson there.

But back to the mentality of the two stars…do you know how annoying it is to be skating without the puck and to be knocked off stride and have to adjust and get going again? Connor is a perfect skater so he can do ok but Leon is spending huge amounts of energy and he looks like he’s carrying a piano. First of all, every time the player is impeded without the puck it absolutely should be called. I’m picturing Brady’s T’s bump on 97 that knocked him down. But we know the league won’t call it and that’s why this is a lesser league than the other major sports leagues…but that’s for another day.

So what to do?

Defer. Decoy. Just for neutral zone transport.

Get a puck transporter on each line (13 and 93 and 25 to be honest) and play each shift as a 4 v 4 offensively and 5 v 5 defensively. I’ve got to think the expected goals for/against is much higher at 4v4 than even 97/29 5v5 shifts.

Connor and Leon should come back behind the play on the breakout. If the checker comes with them then 25 or 93 or 13 has an empty neutral zone to attack with speed. Once you’re setup than 97/29 come late and you can start the half-court game.

This is the evolution of overcoaching like we see in the NFL. Maholmes was shown a Cover-3 scheme with an astonishing 4-man rush which simply will not allow deep passes. No one is open and there’s no time for a deep dropback. Rather than adjusting and running the ball or using 3-step drops, they kept trying the same thing.

If the Oilers use a plan like I’ve outlined above the opposition will give up too many free zone entries and will eventually revert back to a standard defense.

90s fan

It’s not a product of over coaching. It’s a product of the fact coaches need to continue to teach how to read defense and make smart decisions based on what they see.

I am sure there is a lot of discussion of what to do when Connor has a shadow. There has to be, right?

Your comment reminds me of coaches who teach young basketball teams a play, but there is no room for thinking. Do this play or get benched. Why did you take that open layup? It’s not in the play!

Last edited 5 months ago by 90s fan
knighttown

I’m not quite sure I follow.

The current Oiler neutral zone strategy (say on a full line change starting behind our own net) is that 97 and 29 circle back low and either take the puck from the defender or beat the first forecheck and then get the pass.

I’m suggesting that our opposition is taking that away by actually covering 97/29 before they even get the puck even if it’s 200 feet away. One counter to that strategy is to continue to have 97/29 come back ultra-low and have 13/93 run a parallel route a bit higher allowing them to get the puck with speed and a relatively empty neutral zone.

If you’re point is that Tippett is already covering that…sure Ok…I’ve seen some signs of it like 93’s end-to-end rush last night but I also saw plenty of situations where Drai (especially) took the puck in coverage and then tried to beat a couple of other guys resulting in a turnover.

Something to watch for…

pts2pndr

It doesn’t help that the officiating was trying to keep the game close. I am truly tired of the abuse both Connor and Leon take on a regular basis. Example is a ref advising I’ve warned you twice. That’s crap call the rule book!

Fuge Udvar

I agree. If they want to get McDavid and Draisaitl some space out there they need to NOT give them the puck.

I think hockey could take a couple lessons from football. Hockey lacks the misdirection they use in football to set up plays for later. I know it’s tougher to do in hockey with the fluidness of the game.

I’d love to see some more creativeness beyond just throwing out different line combinations.

Woodguy v2.0

EDM Goal Share after 15 games (8-7-0)

Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
97 w/o 29 (8-14)-36%
29 w/o 97 (12-5)-71%
97 & 29 On (6-0)-100%
Turris (4-11)-27%
Other (4-6)-40%
Net EV -2

Special Teams: 15-14
Net ST +1

Empty Net: 3-2
Net EN +1

SO & PS 0-0
Net SO & PS 0

Net Goal Diff 0

JJ is responsible for all 4 of the “4-6” for “other” . 1 vs CGY, 3 vs OTT.

84-16-15 looks like they are on the road to solving the 3rd line for EDM. I hope. *crosses fingers*

Need a healthy Haas now.

Need the PDO Gords to take their foot off McDavid’s neck too.

SwedishPoster

Lagesson playing left wing? Are you on your phone again?

BONE207

As Nuge lay in the tall grass drifting to sleep on a sunny day…I wish I had an NHLe of 50, never mind 52.3…

Woodguy v2.0

The Lydo NHL North Division standings February 10th using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500 

TOR +8
MTL +6
WPG +3
CGY +1
EDM +1
VAN -4
OTT -9

BONE207

🎵4265050…wouldn’t feed that shit to fido🎵

€√¥£€^$

That jingle and Chicken on the Way are the most memorable of my childhood. I grew up west of the city, but even when I moved into the city I never sampled food from either.

What was the best Chinese take out in E-Town during 80’s? In the late 90’s Smiley’s in St.Albert was my go-to, are any of these still around?

BONE207

It was catchy. Smileys always rented me their offerings. 2 hours max!!!

Reja

Where’s the love for Shakey’s pizza they had some real catchy jiggles in the 70’s. The good old days when the Coach took the whole team out after games and kids could run around and be free.

Ryan

OMG. Four two six, five o five o, if you’re hungry call the Lydo… Free delivery!

I was in early grade school when those ads played, but I still remember it.

Durag

The only thing rarer than Connor and Leon being held off the scoresheet in a game is them being held off the scoresheet in back to back games. Gotta figure they’re good for at least 4 points between them against the Habs!

jtblack

You could tell early it could be one of those Games for Leon. But he gets a pass cause he is usually so Awesome.

Who are Holloways comparables?

I did not see the O during world juniors … Good arrows now. Good for him

OriginalPouzar

Holloway was injured at the World Juniors – early.

Injury combined with role/deployment limited his offence.

He’s clearly not the best offensive player in the NCAA but he’s full value for his point production – is a function of his game – he drives play with his motor and confident puck transportation (out and in).

godot10

Holloway was injured and defering to the vets at the World Juniors. Like he defered to the vets last year at Wisconsin. Once he gets the lay of the land, he asserts himself and dominates. He was quarantined for two weeks and had no training camp with the World Juniors…so he focused on his assigned role.

Clarkenstein

How long will the Kahun experiment go on. Adds ZERO to that line. Having said that the Oil really have only a “top 5” because who else are you going to slot in there?

JimmyV1965

Kahun reminds me of Strome before we shipped him out in another Chia blunder. He looks really good out there; he’s forechecking and making nice plays, but the results aren’t there yet. IMO the tide will turn and the results will be better.

Elgin R

Sadly the numbers do not support that. 5v5 FF% (47.5) and FF% rel (-1.5) show that the Oilers are not controlling play with Kahun on the ice and that the team as a whole control more of the play without him on the ice. 5v5 PDO (102.9) indicates that the team is on a bit of a heater with him on the ice.

No choice but to continue with Kahun as there do not seem to be a better option. By eye he shows well and hopefully the goals start to come.

ArmchairGM

No choice but to continue with Kahun as there do not seem to be a better option.

I don’t know about that. I don’t think it’s ever been suggested before (it has), but swapping Kahun with Nugent-Hopkins – who isn’t delivering on the McDavid line – seems like it could be a pretty good option. It gives the first line a “Yamamoto” to forecheck and disrupt the breakout.

Kahun – McDavid – Puljujarvi
Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto

I guess we’ll never know.

Last edited 5 months ago by ArmchairGM
Elgin R

I did not bring that up because that horse has been beat to death. Tippet is nothing if not patient so do not expect that to happen, even though it would be preferred by many.

godot10

One hobbit per line. One only.

wolf8888

Agreed. Saying he adds zero is absurd. He has turned over pucks and created chaos for the opposition. His points will come as he is in the right place a lot.

pts2pndr

Are you a Vancouver fan or has HH reinvented himself.

Harpers Hair

All things considered…Kahun is pretty bad.

5V5

CF% 44.42

FF% 45.52

SCF% 42.56

GF% 56.25

xG% 42.61

SCF% 42.56

The GF% is not being driven by stellar play but instead by an on ice SV% of .939 resulting in a PDO of 1.033

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20192020&playerid=8480946&sit=5v5&stype=2

Given that he’s scoring only .33 PPG while playing with an elite centre, it’s pretty clear he is not a top six winger and you should expect regression in that on ice SV%

OriginalPouzar

Is Puljuarvi scoring at any better of a pace with a generational player?

Similar to Jesse, I think Kahun’s box-cars under-represents his play – not to the same extent though.

OriginalPouzar

Agh, shit, I need to start looking at the names of the posts I respond to – didn’t realize I was responding to the human that isn’t worthy of a response.

pts2pndr

You should order yourself a plexiglass stomach before you hurt yourself walking around with your head up your ass.

jp

All things considered…Kahun is pretty bad.

5V5

CF% 44.42

FF% 45.52

SCF% 42.56

GF% 56.25

xG% 42.61

SCF% 42.56

That looks like Quinn Hughes’ stat line except for the GF%.

At least Hughes is scoring though, that’s the most important thing.

OriginalPouzar

That line had a very very poor game last night but I simply can’t agree that he adds ZERO to the line. He has been directly responsible for a couple of linemate goals over the last few games and shows skill on a nightly basis.

I know the metrics for the line aren’t great except for, of course, goals scored and goals given up but I can’t agree that he provides ZERO.

I’m not saying he is a perfect fit for the line or that changes can’t be made but that he adds considerably more than zero.

As far as potential other options to place in the top 6 on LW. Ennis of course but I’m remiss to alter the Ennis/JJ/Archie line that has been so good since put together. Let that line continue until they come off their heater.

Nygard could/should be an option – skill lines have produced when he’s been inserted – very small sample size though.

Benson should be an option but he’s not given 2 plus weeks from date of recall to potential insertion in the lineup (and 2 weeks of no ice). I know most are very down on Benson as he didn’t make the team but he didn’t have a shot to make the team. With zero exhibition games and a short camp, there was no real opportunity – he didn’t even take a shift at a practice with an NHL lock I don’t think.

Cassandra

Watching the goaltending was painful. That was like watching Griffin Reinhart try and play defense. I have never seen anything like it. Hard to watch someone’s career go down the drain.

SwedishPoster

Yeah Högberg doesn’t look like an NHL goalie at all but him getting NHL games is surprising in itself. Despite solid numbers his last SHL season he looked pretty average at that level before coming over a few years ago and from numbers seems to have performed pretty average in the AHL as well yet he’s been getting NHL games. Pretty odd route I must say, someone in the Sens org clearly likes him, but doubt his NHL journey lasts much longer.

€√¥£€^$

Unfortunately for Hogberg he is with Ottawa, an organization that has been horrendous at recognizing goaltending talent right under their noses. Can’t think of another NHL club that has pissed away so much young G talent in the past 10 years. From Elliot to Bishop to Lehner and Driedger .

As a long-time Oiler fan, I wish my team saw this kind of talent come to town.

Cassandra

Splitting up Barrie and Nurse would be a big mistake. Barrie is playing his game, active, controlling the neutral zone, and creating offense. He can’t do those things with any of the other LHD the Oilers have. He’s been a completely different player since Bear was injured. From a guy who was playing himself out of the league to someone who is dynamic and creating chances.

Nurse is the perfect partner for Barrie on this team. Lagesson and Russell are too slow to cover, Jones is too aggressive. Koekoek maybe, but Koekoek is last in almost every metric. If Barrie is on your team he needs to play with Nurse.

Nurse–Barrie
Lagesson–Bear
Jones–Larsson

Those are your pairs, maybe swap in Koekoek for Lagesson or Jones as you see fit. I know people want Bouchard in the lineup, but unless you are taking Larsson out, which I can’t see, I don’t know who he replaces. And right now the team is getting outshot and outchanced while he is on the ice rather dramatically.

TheGreatBigMac

Maybe rotate Bouchard with Larsson on back to backs. Keep Larsson fresh and Bouch gets some reps.

Elgin R

Take that even farther and start to rotate all the dmen.
LD: Nurse, Lagesson, Jones, Koekkoek, KRusty
RD: Bear, Barrie, Larsson, Bouchard

Mix and match (as Playfair sees fit) so that barring injury any particular dman should play only a maximum of 75% of the remaining games.

cowboy bill

Yeah it’s becoming difficult to know how to put the pairings together . Lagesson & Larsson are looking like a solid shut down pair , Jones looks to be losing ground , no good on the PK . Gotta agree it would be a huge mistake to split up Nurse & Barrie . Bouchard has played well too . Where does Bear fit now ? Is it Koekoek-Bear or Koekoek- Bouchard ?
7 defensemen & 11 forwards seems to be the way to go , especially the way those Dmen are scoring so many goals .

Russell & Jones seem to be on the outside looking in ..

ArmchairGM

Lagesson-Larsson are rocking a 1.150 PDO. Jones-Larsson looks better by most metrics – and that was when Larsson was making bone-headed plays every game that were ending up in the back of the net.

http://naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&loc=B&toi=50&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410

dustrock

Yeah I’d try Jones-Bouchard for sure. Putting Bouch with either Russell or Cuckoo long-term isn’t going to help his development.

JimmyV1965

I really like Barrie’s play over the last few games. He’s very creative and his compete level is actually very strong. But then he makes some boneheaded mistake that ends up being very dangerous, like that weird failed clearing attempt near the end of the game. I think that’s simply the reality of Tyson Barrie.

who

I hate that flip out of your own end. Cause there’s always a chance you fan on it.
But in this case I think the forechecker actually got his stick on the puck as Barrie was elevating it. Maybe a bit of bad luck in this instance.

Reja

Guy Lapointe was the master at flipping the puck sky high Brad Park was not to shabby either. I would say Erik Karlsson is the best at that skill nowadays.

Reja

Barrie made a fantastic play on the wild scramble puck was sitting close to the line when he knocked it back and out of harms way. I don’t think announcers mentioned it but he saved a goal straight up.

pts2pndr

You take out Barrie. You said it yourself when you said that Nurse is the only on who can cover for Barrie’s gaffs. Even Nurse can’t cover for Barrie against a good team.

Yeti

Barrie looks good with Nurse… when playing against Ottawa. He looked out of his depth with that role and those minutes against Calgary. Hope Bear is back for the next stretch.

godot10

Barrie is not a good D. He drags down Nurse against good teams. So he looks good against Ottawa.

OriginalPouzar

That’s interesting – I just checked one year, his last year in Colorado.

He played with Ian Cole most of the year and he did better without Cole and Cole did much much worse without Barrie.

Seems Cole dragged Barrie down that year and Barrie zoomed Cole.

No I did not sort by quality of team opposition.

Justthestatsman

I agree Mikko had a nice bounce back game. I know it was Ottawa, there were a few wobbles with rebound control and he’ll never be an all star, but he had some nice saves too. Probably not enough to get Terry Jones to retract his “Once again. Slowly. Mikko. Koskinen. Is. Not. A. National. Hockey. League. Goaltender” column, but nice saves none the less.

Elgin R

It’s OK because no one actually reads Terry Jones articles about the Oilers anymore do they?

Mikko did what he needed to do – making saves to keep the Oilers in a game.

jp

Probably not enough to get Terry Jones to retract his “Once again. Slowly. Mikko. Koskinen. Is. Not. A. National. Hockey. League. Goaltender” column,

I didn’t realize he actually said that so directly.

That’s incredibly unprofessional IMO, aside from being flat out wrong.

That’s really unfortunate.

Reja

Terry was around for the adult version of the Battle of Alberta up until last night Kosh has not been good enough. Unless you were around Edmonton in the 80s decade it’s hard to explain the hate that Calgary and Edmonton as city’s had for each other. Lots of born and raised folks in those days so fans were damn loyal. Just as Terry was frustrated with Kosh so was I he cost us the biggest game of the year against the hated Flames. Tippett’s going to ride Smith like a rented mule and get us back in this race.

jp

I understand it was a bad loss and a bad game by the goalie.

It doesn’t excuse that type of ‘reporting’ though.

innercitysmytty

Terry Jones is irrelevant these days so not sure it even matters. And who the hell is Kosh?

wolf8888

Who is Terry Jones? Never heard on Lowetide so I assume he doesn’t exist. 🙂

Elgin R

Some of the players (Draisaitl line in particular) looked like they were out of gas last night. The team has played the most games of any team in the league with the exception of the Canucks. They only play 8 games during the remaining 19 days of February which will help.

JJ: Looks like he filled up at the ‘Last Chance Texaco’. No one ever doubted that JJ can PK as the numbers speak for themselves. He doesn’t need to have 2 points a night (but nice to see), all he needs to do is not be a 5v5 black hole. Keep it up JJ, all of Oiler Nation is cheering for you.

Turris: Get well soon Gaten Hass!

Chiasson: PP 34.3 minutes TOI with 0-0-0. Need Kassian back asap!

OriginalPouzar

The team has won 5 of their last 6 and the only loss came in a game where they thoroughly outplayed their arch-rival in all areas of the game except for goaltending yet the majority are critiquing how they won and who they beat.

Oh, I get it – they were outplayed by Ottawa last night and won due to goaltending – that happens to good teams sometimes. For decades, when the Oilers were a bottom feeder (or even a low end bubble team), there would be a dozen hard-working performances a year where they were the better team but lost. Good teams have tough nights and win, either due to skill, tending or luck.

The Oilers did that last night.

I understand the negative vibes and opinion, I do – in my opinion, many are a bit overblown but that’s just my opinion.

—————

Thursday is going to be real tough – this team needs that 3-day break. I hope they can get a point out of Montreal.

After that, there is a HUGE stretch – they get their break and rested up and then a number of games against WIN and CGY – we will know MUCH more in 10-14 days.

rocket

42 shots against; 69 shots directed towards the goal – got to do better. Hard to see the Oilers making the playoffs. In order to make the playoffs the Oilers need to win 26 games of the remaining games (of 41 left) – need to win 5 more against Ottawa; 3 each against Montreal and Toronto; 4 against Winnipeg; 6 against Calgary and 5 against Vancouver. Is it possibly? Is it probably?

Elgin R

What point total is going to be required to make the playoffs in the Canadian division? 1.1 pts/game (90 pts in an 82 game season) will probably be the minimum. So in a normal season it would be 62 pts in 56 games to finish 4th. But, Ottawa and Vancouver are going to play well but ultimately lose a vast majority of their remaining games. Is it unreasonable to assume 4th place will require 66 pts? Probably not and that is 1.18 pts per game.

Oilers have 16 pts in 15 games (1.07 pts/game) so are running a little shy up to this point. With 41 games remaining – they would need 50 points the rest of the way which is a 1.22 pts/game pace. That equates to a 100-point team in a normal 82 game season which is very solid.

The team is showing signs of coming together and should be better over the long haul than some other teams. Oiler make the playoffs!

jp

It’s definitely possible. The Oilers are currently tied with Calgary for the 4th playoff spot at 1 game over (Bettman) .500, so they aren’t in a hole.

The 26 wins you cite is largely dependent on how the Flames play and it looks like 26 very likely won’t be necessary for playoffs.

The Oilers need to be better but they can be.

fish43

4 of the 8 wins have come against Ottawa. So they are going to need to be better against the other teams

Redbird62

In a tip of the hat to LT’s song choice, the Oilers can truly say they don’t know “What the Hell I’ve got. Yes they are 4-0 against Ottawa, but they are also 1-1 against Vancouver, 1-1 against Winnipeg and 2-2 against Toronto (though Toronto got the one OT bonus point). They are 0-2 against the Habs. We’ll see tomorrow night if the Oilers have progressed since those 2 losses early. They are 0-1 against the Flames, but that game could have gone either way. Also Winnipeg and Vancouver have played Ottawa 3 times each as well. The Oilers are in okay shape where things stand today in the mix for a playoff spot. They will have to go on a significant run over the next few weeks to take away some uncertainty. After Montreal, they have 2 games each against Winnipeg, Calgary and Vancouver giving them direct control over how they stack up in the playoff race.

elgruntus

He could have went with “Loving You Ain’t Easy, or Some Sing Some Dance” as well. Any Michel Pagliaro is a welcome sight. Personal note ‘Sure, Maybe” is my favourite, but alas, just an album cut.

Ice Sage

And they’ve beaten the Leaves twice which no one else has, so there’s that

Doug McLachlan

Yes it was Ottawa but banking the points you are supposed to get is key.

Montreal plays tonight, let’s hope the Leafs and Habs knock themselves silly. Two point game, please.

I am really concerned that we haven’t seen Bear back in the line-up yet but the fact he’s been on the ice practicing is a good sign. When he returns I think we have to revisit the 11-7.

I know the coach doesn’t like it but his roster has an over abundance of RHD that all deserve/need to play (some debate on Larsson, I know, but I accept that they want to have him for the PK and for his physical presence).

They also clearly do NOT have enough talent up the middle (unless the plan is to unicorn Nuge onto a third line). Which could be awesome but alas isn’t happening.

So you go:

Nuge-McDavid-Puljujarvi – Watching JP’s confidence grow is so fun to watch in real time.
Kahun-Draisaitl-Yamo – Ask McCurdy about his mouth injury theory on Drai.
Neal-Khaira-Chaisson – One of the only bright spots from the bubble.
Ennis-Archibald – Personally I doubt they bench Turris but seriously, why not at this point?

Nurse-Bear – Agree that Barrie is too loose up here all the time but in the right situation…
Jones-Larsson – Jones has to check back in at some point.
Lagesson-Bouchard – Both have shown they don’t need training wheels.
Barrie – Keep doing the good things, stop doing the bad things. 🙂

Smith

MushedPeas

Let us waive Turris and be done (or at least less obligated). No point dragging it out. I’d take Marody over him right now tbh.

Elgin R

Hass will be back soon and if JJ can keep his play at the current level we have seen the last of Turris barring injury.

OriginalPouzar

If Haas can play like he did in his two games when he comes back and JJ continues his play from the last 3 games, absolutely, Turris can take a night or two off if he doesn’t improve.

At the same time, I don’t imagine we will have seen the last of Turris at that point – even if he’s being outplayed, he’ll get some more reps and, of course (a) JJ has never been able to sustain this level of play, consistency has always been an issue for him and (b) Haas doesn’t seem very durable and, of course, hasn’t shown to be able to provide that level of play nightly (largely because he can’t stay in the lineup).

Turris has been disappointing and a drag. At the same time, I don’t seem him being totally flushed this season.

dustrock

You’re as relentlessly positive as ever, Doug. One of the worst goaltending performances I’ve seen in recent years, or the Oilers would have lost to one of the worst teams in the NHL.

Back-to-back, road game blah blah blah. More performances like that and they’ll easily be 2nd last in the Canadian Division.

I don’t blame 97 & 29 for taking a night off, they’ve been playing too much, too often.

We need Bear back pronto. And Jones.

And Nuge off of McDavid’s line. He’s doing nothing with 97 and could be used on Drai’s line with Yamamoto.

Tippett is a puzzle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in an invisible moustache.

OriginalPouzar

The issue that I have with 7D/11F, and I apologize for continuing to repeat this, is fatigue and I don’t think it sustainable as the norm (as opposed to the exception).

McDavid and Drai were exhausted through that game last night. It was the 3rd game in 4 nights (with travel east) and Drai had played 23 minutes and close to 30 in the past two games.

Going in to games on the premise that they are going to play more than their regular top 6 shifts plus PP to sub in on the 4th line – even if its 2-3 shifts per game, just isn’t sustainable.

Remember last December – the team cratered, largely part of the cumulative fatigue with these two (i.e heavy PK minutes from Drai early in the season with injuries to Archie and Sheahan).

Maybe they can go 7D/11F as a one off here and there but I don’t think it can be the norm.

Litke 94

Watching Ottawa last night, they reminded me of many an Oilers game from the 2011-2015 era. Season already in the gutter for a young inferior team, but they went out and forechecked like hell and really put an honest effort it…. only to have weak goaltending sink the ship for them. Damn did I ever hate those moral victories.

Puljujarvi is really starting to play with some extreme confidence now. Someone needs to UPS express him a four leaf clover, or a rabbit’s foot, or a horse shoe (I can help with that), because if even 10% more of his chances cash, he is going to be in the money.

hunter1909

27 hours left to play…Last chance to Play Death March!!

Hunter’s 1909’s 2020-21 Death March™ is back for another season

You can register and vote here:

https://www.oilersdeathmarch.com

Hurry! Regular Season Deadline is in 27 hours!

Pescador

Good morning Lowetide,
Thanks for posting the NHLE’s for the latest draftees.
Could you (or anyone who doesn’t have a radio show to do) share a few comparables? I can see his number, I just don’t know how that ranks him against other prospects or players.
Also, is there a sample size concern?
Thank-you in advance

Kraz

One comparable tossed around recently for Holloway has been Dylan Larkin

OriginalPouzar

I think Kyle Connor and Reilly Smith were two other comparables LT wrote about at The Athletic.

90s fan

Did we expect this from Holloway or Savoie? Or are they thumping down our expectations? And what kind of league is the NCAA? The best prospects don’t go there, right? It seems to my incredibly amateur eye that that 50 NHLE is very high, and it would surprise me if he got to that level.

Also a question on NHLE – is that expected points if he was playing in NHL right now? OR what we eventually expect? Or what exactly is it?

AND – is there a confidence level associated with NHLe from the different leagues?

Last edited 5 months ago by 90s fan
31saves

I’m at work right now and I’m going off memory and what I know, so feel free anyone to correct me!

We didn’t really expect this from Holloway, as his NHLe last year was pretty low, (I think in the high 10’s or low 20’s), so he’s spiking in a big way. Savoie actually had a decent NHLe last year, fairly in line with where he is now.

The NCAA is a really good league, its the College teams in America, and they are more or less the equivalent of the CHL here, only every player in the league is at minimum 17/18 (since they are attending College/University at the same time). Not all of the best prospects go here, but the NCAA has produced some gems in recent years and seems to improve as time goes on.

NHLe is the expected points if he were playing in the NHL right now. Connor McDavid had a 63 point NHLe in his 17 year old season, which is probably around where he would have scored in the NHL that year. NHLe, like any statistic, is not an exact science, since it is an approximation based on the perceived difficulty of the league year to year. A year where the skill level in a league rapidly increases or decreases, ice time, linemates etc… all play a role. In addition, while this is extraordinarily exciting for Holloway, it is a very small sample size of less than 20 games. It was important to see a spike like this, and from other posters’ reports he is dominating games, but to assume he could plug onto our third line right now and pick up 53 points this year is not really accurate. What it indicates is that he has progressed, he is scoring much more this year for a variety of reasons, and he is continuing to develop and grow year by year… In a big way in this case.

Todd Macallan

LTs Holloway article from last wk in the Athletic has some terrific stuff on comparisons if you have access!

OriginalPouzar

We hoped for a spike in Holloways’ offensive game and took solace in the fact that he produced at a much higher clip down the stretch last season (9 points in 10 games) but I don’t think anyone reasonably expected (or even suggested) that he would produce at a country leading pace. Of course, he’s played less games than many due to the World Juniors (and the uber-lengthy absence for them) but, as of now, the offensive production is fantastic.

What’s even more encouraging is that (a) aside from the PP, he doesn’t play with Cole Caufield but centers the second line – he is that lines driver and (b) the production could almost be thought of as gravy considering the tools and skill-set he has. He is an absolute driver at the NCAA level. Physically dominant as a sophomore, a zone exit and zone entry savant (like I’ve never seen before at this level), a faceoff beast and with a 2-way motor that doesn’t stop.

One step at a time – the NCAA is a very very good development league but it is an amateur league (with some older players mind you).

godot10

The comparable for Dylan Holloway is Rod Brind’Amour.

OriginalPouzar

Is that a fact or an opinion?

godot10

An assertion.

flea

Hard game to watch last night. The Oilers were tired. I’m not expecting it’ll be much better Thursday but at least the Habs will be coming off a back to back.

Oilers need to rest up and come out with more energy than last night. Any other team and any other goalie – they lose last nights game more often than they win.

Still nice to see them win without contributions from McDavid and Drai – they said on the broadcast it’s been 28 straight losses when those two both fail to record a point – ha!

90s fan

The winless streak when McD and Drai are held off is insane on 2 levels.

1 – Really 28 games with 0 wins? What an indictment on the supporting cast.

2 – Only 28 games since Oct. 2017 where neither get a point?? That is insane! Why are we not better? (Oh wait, see point #1)

OriginalPouzar

Yup, team seemed exhausted in the 2nd half and couldn’t get the momentum back when Ottawa took over.

3 games in 4 nights with travel east. Drai played close to 30 minutes in one of those games and 23 in the other – don’t think its a coincidence that he had his worst game of the season last night.

Going to be a tough one in MTL on Thursday – hopefully they can gut out a point and then refresh with 3 full days off.