The Oilers have clawed back into contention at the quarter mark, but the wins now have to come against teams Edmonton is chasing. That starts tonight. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is one of many Oilers wingers who need to start cashing on chances.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: What to do with the Oilers defence now that the rookies have arrived
- Lowetide: Mike Smith’s return calms the Oilers goalie hysteria — for now
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors are back, but true NHL prospects a roster rarity
- Lowetide: Dylan Holloway caps strong NCAA season with Hobey Baker nomination
- Lowetide: Oilers rookie Evan Bouchard’s 2021 NHL debut — a shift-by-shift review
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers report card for January
- Lowetide: Oilers’ line chemistry finally coming into view
- Lowetide: Some of the Oilers’ Russian prospects less than a year from the NHL
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers need misfiring elements to come together — and fast
- Lowetide: 3 auditioning Oilers who should be given time to find their groove
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi is ready for his No. 1 line audition
- Lowetide: Oilers’ scoring wing prospects having an impact.
- Lowetide: Oilers Kailer Yamamoto is the real deal.
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers risers and fallers: Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones among those stumbling early
- Lowetide: Is this peak Connor McDavid?
- Lowetide: Will Ken Holland let it ride in goal for the Oilers this season?
OILERS AFTER 16 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 6-10-0, 12 points; goal differential -7
- Oilers in 2016-17: 9-6-1, 19 points; goal differential +4
- Oilers in 2017-18: 6-9-1, 13 points; goal differential -13
- Oilers in 2018-19: 8-7-1, 17 points; goal differential -5
- Oilers in 2019-20: 10-4-2, 22 points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in 2020-21: 8-7-0, 16 points; goal differential 0
A win tonight means this version of the Oilers would rank behind only the two playoff teams (2017-18 and 2019-20). The goal differential is back to zero, a nice run here in the next week could get the Oilers halfway to Neil Young (into the black).
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: Ottawa (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: Calgary, Ottawa, Ottawa, Montreal (Expected: 2-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: Calgary (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: Toronto (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
- Current results: 3-1-0, 6 points in 4 games
I have tonight as a loss, with a week of up and down results. Edmonton is 5-1-0 in the last six, and in truth there’s a lot that isn’t humming, so maybe they put it all together for one magical night in Montreal. Habs played last night for what it’s worth.
EDMONTON OILERS ROSTER
This is points-per-60 (forwards), Corsi five on five (defense) and overall save percentage (goalies). There are now two forwards over 2.00 per 60, although Yamamoto is close enough for jazz. Nuge, Kahun and even Puljujarvi need to post some five on five offense, no matter how exhausting the schedule.
Here’s hoping we see Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones soon, not sure who will be coming out of the lineup but Jones hasn’t played since the end of January. Nurse-Barrie are holding their own, Bouchard is gaining confidence by the hour.
Who starts? My guess is Mike Smith.
MONTREAL CANADIENS ROSTER
My goodness this is a fantastic set of stats. All areas are quality, including three scoring lines, three sets of defensemen winning the possession battle, and Vezina goaltending. Oilers may get Jake Allen tonight, that’s no bargain.
SHOTS PER 60-SCORING CHANCES PER 60
- Jesse Puljujarvi 9.85 (6.57)
- RNH 9.59 (3.95)
- James Neal 9.49 (4.75)
- Dominik Kahun 6.9 (2.70)
- Patrick Russell 6.82 (0)
- Josh Archibald 5.78 (3.71)
- Kailer Yamamoto 5.65 (3.95)
- Zack Kassian 4.67 (3.12)
- Tyler Ennis 4.17 (4.17)
- Joakim Nygard 3.65 (0)
All numbers five on five, via Natural Stat Trick. This is five on five shots per 60 and in brackets high danger scoring chances per 60.
This is fascinating, and shows Puljujarvi as the top winger in terms of both shots and high danger chances per 60. Nuge has a handsome shots per 60, but isn’t cashing. Yamamoto isn’t shooting a lot, but these numbers match his work from a year ago (5.60 and 4.02) so he should get his goals.
2019 DRAFT NHLE’S
- Philip Broberg 16.3
- Raphael Lavoie 23.0
- Matej Blumel 23.2
- Maxim Denezhkin 20.2
All of these men are tracking as NHL prospects based on NHLE. The SHL numbers can be deceiving, so I would caution all in regard to suggesting Broberg is a shy contributor offensively. Klefbom rarely posted crooked numbers in that league and blossomed in the NHL. This is a promising draft.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun and busy show on the Lowdown today, we start at 10 this morning. Connor McKenna from TSN 690 Montreal joins us at 10:20 to preview the Oilers-Habs game, I promise not to bring up Sam Pollock. At 11, Frank Seravalli from TSN will tell us about the Ron Hextall-Brian Burke management team and what kind of change we might see on the Pittsburgh Penguins roster. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Great game by the Oil last night. Lots of highlights, but I was thrilled with Lagesson’s epic battle with Anderson in front of the net. Sweet justice that we scored on the ensuing PP.
Can someone please explain to me how McDavid isn’t credited with an assist on the Nurse goal? I’m rooting for him to hit 500 faster than Crosby and its so tight that could be the difference.
Weber made a swinging motion when he shot it into his own net so it was ruled an interrupted play.
Ah thanks. I thought possession was the metric but this clears things up.
Looking at (4×31) EVTOI def Dmen pr in the league.
Sekera – Pysyk tied for #1 0.00 evga/60, 40.00% off zs%
Lagesson – Larsson #9 0.85 evga/60, 18.75% off zs%
Tanev – Hanifin #18 1.26; 44.44%
Russell – Barrie # 1.69; 43.48%
—————————————- 2.00 championship standard
Nurse – Bear #67 2.45; 46.34%
Boroweiski – Benning #72 2.60; 10.53% off zs%
koekkoek – Larson #90 3.25, 30.77%
Nurse – Barrie #103 3.80; 62.50% off zs%
man to have Benning as another Championship standard anchor
last yr. Russel – Benning 0.79 evga/60; 33.96% off zs%
Lagesson – Larsson 0.85/60; 1min = .23 evga
Russel – Benning 0.79/60; 16 min = .21 evga
2.00 GAA ( champ std) – (.23 +.21) = 1.56 evga
1.56/(16Min/60min) = 3.75 evga/60
1.00 GAA – (.23 + .21) = .56
.56/(16/60) = 2.10 evga/60
with Ppg scored at almost 3 times the rate of even 1.00 is more realistic in final 4.
with one elite pair the other 2 pairs have to average.
1.00 – .23 = .77
.77/(32/60) = 1.44 evga/60
This is the mathematical reason that 4+ top 60 def Dmen are needed for a championship team.
If this is Mike Smith the Oilers win the North, the only game they’ve lost since their ugly start is the disaster of which we wont speak of, they should of won it.
McDavid was smiling like a believer tonight, the rest of the division is fucked.
Goal posts are being abandoned and orphaned all over the lands, and Vancouver is still absolute dog shit.
Big win tonight! I believe Toronto to be the only playoff lock in this division, but Winnipeg’s F/C depth is solidified with consistent G, and Calgary’s G is also going to win some games. Hoping that Montreal continues to slide so that they end up back in the mix.
I know at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter how you arrive at your record, but I think the Oilers’ playoff chances will hinge on their record against non-Ottawa opponents (given that they don’t really have it in them to play spoilers)
Current non-Ottawa records:
Montreal 7-3-2
Calgary 7-5-1
Winnipeg 4-4-1
Edmonton 5-7
Calgary plays Ottawa 5 out of 6 games at the end of the month and early March.
Yep, and unless Ottawa figures things out by then, it will allow Calgary to separate.
I didn’t exclude Vancouver from the equation because they can definitely play spoiler. 1-4 vs. Mtl, 0-3 vs. Cgy, 1-1 vs. Edm, 1-0 vs. Wpg. Oil will have to start using them as a punching bag and keep the season series relatively even against the others
Oilers gained another lot on the old HH homestead tonight ???
Ottawa has beaten both Toronto and Montreal. Pretending they are not in the division doesn’t make sense. Do you think they will lose every game this year? They have potential and if they find goaltending somewhere they will start winning some games. Then what happens with this kind of analysis?
Yes, they are going to lose the vast majority of games. They have lost games even when their goaltending was serviceable. Whether Edmonton wins the series 8-1 or 9-0 is likely going to be irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. These aren’t 4 point games. Vancouver, on the other hand have had their lunch money stolen by Montreal and Calgary, and if Edmonton wants to be in the conversation, they are going to have to do the same, and then narrowly win the combined series against Montreal/Winnipeg/Calgary, where they are currently 2-4
Calgary is shit without great goaltending and he can’t steal every game, Montreal was not the same team as the first time the Oilers played and the Oilers are not either. Hockey is not a static sport so the future is not necessarily determined by the past. I’m not expecting Ottawa to catch up and get in the race but I’m not so sure they can play spoiler by the end of the year. They only have to get one teams number to affect the standings.
It was fun to watch the third line break out, pass through the neutral zone and into the ozone
Excellent team effort tonight. Smitty was air tight. All the tumblers fell into place, everyone clicked. Except Neal. He was useless. I can’t imagine Tyler Benson being worse, or Nygard or even PRussell. Looking forward to the inevitable buyout this summer.
Also, I thought the refs were good tonight. Let the teams play and stayed out of the spotlight. Nothing worse than refs making a call because they thought something happened.
Buyout could happen but its far from inevitable. The GM spoke harshly against dead cap hits and how much the existing one’s are hurting the team now.
Of note, while he certainly didn’t look good for most of the game, he was on the ice for two of the goals for and the PPG doesn’t happen without a massive puck retrieval from him about 20 second before the goal.
I know Dutch doesn’t like the buyout route, but can you see them dragging his carcass around for 2 more years? He’s done.
Poor Ottawa. Outshot Jets 42 – 15 and lost 5-1. After a few good games Murray at 800 again tonight.
edit. He only played 2 periods
My position on Murray in the off-season was I didn’t want to give up even a middling asset for him as I wouldn’t want to qualify him at $4M (apx). The contract that he was given was the most mind-boggling of the off-season.
The Sens are 11th in the league in shot share, but last in goal share.
Not only the worst PDO in the league, but they have both the worst shooting% and the worst SV% in the whole league.
Normally I’d say they’re likely to improve going forward, but the roster looks more like last place than 11th..
If the voting was today, would Darnell Nurse be a top candidate for the Norris?
He’s played the most minutes in the league, 17 more than Seth Jones (who has played one less games. While there are some PP minutes, he’s nowhere near a PP minute muncher.
What a first quarter of the season.
And maybe moving up the rankings for the Olympics? People laughed at that a few weeks ago but if he keeps playing like this I think he has a real shot
Nurse’s mobility would be even more valuable on the big ice you’d think.
Oilers are playing .750 since Bouchard joined the team and solidified the defence.
: p
Where is the “Oilers shutout the Habs and move in to a tie for 2nd place in the standings” scenario?
Habs have 2 in hand. Jets 1 back with 3 in hand. Hate to say it but rooting for Team Troll over Flames.
“…tied for 2nd place…” is like a call-to-arms for HH.
(which is the reason why OP stipulated “in the standings”)
Nah, it sends him to ground!
The post I responded to spoke about the Oilers place in the standings.
It didn’t seem to cover the scenario where the Oilers continue to win, as they’ve been doing.
Give him a break! He’s just trying to be a “contrarian” by figuring out a small statistical outcome which would be the worst outcome for the Oilers! Without him there would be Oilers homers everywhere! EVERYWHERE!
The Oilers are still in 4th place and may be in 5th place before the end of the night.
Games played or not played matter.
What matters is seeing Vancouver finished. Looks like they are about done after tonight. Better luck next year!
The 4 game home stand against Calgary is likely the end of the rope for Jim Benning…as it should be.
Looks like Hughes is helping cut the rope for Benning.
So Sad for Team Troll
Nothing like hyping up the elite D for Vancouver and their “1A/1B” goalie combination only to watch them battle Ottawa for most goals against in the entire league.
It is the gift that keeps on giving.
Battle Ottawa?
The Canucks are leading the entire league in GA.
Elite #1D also leads the league in even strength GA, and by quite a margin.
In fact, Quinn Hughes has been on the ice for more even strength GA than most entire teams (this is not hyperbole, he would rank 17th among NHL teams in GA). Oh my. He sure is dynamic though.
You’re right. When I looked at the standings on NHL.com I had thought they had updated the GA for both the Canucks and Sens.
I shouldn’t have doubted the Canucks !
Two more d-men goals tonight – unreal the production from the back-end this season – and to think, Jones and Bear are not primary contributors to this point.
That’s the best game the Oilers have played since the shut down
The game two beatdown against VCR was pretty nice too.
Tonight was excellent, up and down the lineup.
I don’t think we had our best game tonight, and I don’t think we got the Habs best either. But we had more in the tank than they did, played smart, and gutted out a win behind excellent play by Smith (who did look at his best).
This was not as tough game as the one we just played against the Gordless Flames, for eg. But you have to get wins in games like this and not sink to the other team’s level. But I think we have another gear and MTL too.
Its something that the Oilers looked like they had more in the tank. Yup, Habs played last night but had 3 full days off prior to the at. Oilers are in their 4th in 6h and looked gassed leaving Ottawa.
Full credit for that performance.
They did have us in the 3rd — some of it score effect and some of it legs, I’d say — but they took a couple of dumb penalties, and at evens we played smart and kept them mostly to the outside. We did that well all game long and the Habs seemed unwilling to compete for the hard areas on the ice.
Tipp sounds like he might actually be experiencing some happiness somewhere deep in that reserved core.
rilly, rilly want to see him win a cup.
#withus
Three games in a row of solid goaltending will do that.
For me, that was our strongest performance this season. We were exiting our zone clean and fast… entering the offensive zone with speed. Great defensive effort from our defenders. Nurse has always been a favourite of mine, and tonight he didn’t let me down.
But the biggest surprise, for me, was Mike Smith’s solid tending. He should’ve/could’ve had a shutout his last game, but tonight nothing got past him. Surprised? Yup and thoroughly pleased.
Now a well deserved 3 day rest. Hope Jesse is ok. GO OILERS GO!!!
Jesse tested negative this afternoon.
Looks like he’ll be fine and, with two more negative, he’ll head back to Edmonton on Saturday.
So he (we) gets screwed by a false positive?!
I miss that infectious smile glued to his face. Miss seeing the helmet that seems to be way too small, sitting high on top of his head. But as much as I love his newly found game, imo, he needs a longer stick.
Larsson – Lagesson should be sub 1.00, question is will their off sz% is sub 10%, studs!
Zone based with or without pocession coach based decision is by far the biggest performance affect on current Hockey analytics.
Flatearthers do not differentiate?
Sad!
Just checked the standings and Oilers currently 7th in overall points in the NHL. Wow.
#KnockOnWood Very little Covid disruption in the Canadian division so far. Artifact of games played differential.
– Tried to register for Death March before game, didn’t work: oh well..Always liked this H!
Please, don’t worry! We’re extending the deadline between sometime now and before the next game.
Right. To be fair, they’ve also played the most games. If you go by points %, they’re 16th.
Something I’m enjoying about the Oilers this season is the distinct lack of not showing up until the third period.
This season they’re in the tilt from the opening face-off, and it’s a welcome change.
I would say “this month,” but otherwise agreed.
Russell – Barrie #33 def pr 1.69 evga/60, 43.48% off ZS %
———————————- championship caliber line.
Nurse – Bear #65 def pair 2.45 evga/60, 46.34% off zs%
Nurse – Barrie bottom 15 def pr 4.44 evga/60, 56.62% off zs%
Nurse/Barrie:
3.93 GA/60
4.91 GF/60
What will Harper’s Hair make of tonight’s game?
Asking for a friend.
Hh only comes around to rain on the funeral. When Lowetidians are overjoyed, Hh can’t propagate the vibe so he curls up with the Shelter Point hooch & plots for tomorrow…muhahaha
He’s too ecstatic to post right now.
Wait till the tears of joy stop flowing down his cheeks, he’ll be back.
they are currently mingling with his Shelter Point Whiskey – sweet Oiler cheer!
Probably busy with his TI83 and a calendar out to figure out when and how Oilers could fall to 5th place.
That’s probably after he figures out how an Elite #1 D man can go -13 when he has 17 points infront of a 1A/1B goalie, though.
Nurse playing amazing. So good
Norris conversation at this point.
That looked like an NHL team for 60M
Very nice execution. I’m sure Tipp is tickled.
And I am so happy good Smith showed up. What a relief for the team I think.
Have no fear, Mike Smith is here.
SHUTOUT, BAAAAABYYY!!
Lol, good for the old man.
Well I rather enjoyed that effort from everyone. Smith & his shutout. CONNOR was awesome with his puck control. Khaira & Ennis & Archie. In fact, I thought Leon was possibly the worst Oiler. Too many errant passes. 1st place…woohoo
Drei is carrying the mail too much right now. and taking a physical beating also. Good argument to be made to put nuge back… tempting…
Nice to face a team who didn’t have their A-game for a night, rather than we being the ones without their top game… y’know for a change.
Considering it was our 3rd game in 4 nights (etc), excellent effort from the boys tonight.
Fourth game in six nights, too.
That was a hell of an effort considering their recent schedule – hell of an effort.
I guess they just need a day of video games yesterday.
they got stops… bottom line. Mind you Koskinen was great last game. But they got stops and the defensive coverage by forwards was outstanding… montreal was working with marginal ‘throw it on net’ hopeful plays all night… very few gimmes from the slot or late man open looks.
Yup (that was the etc). Normally we’d be the ones a step behind tonight, but the boys were full value and even got Smith a shutout. Great to see.
I’m not so sure the Habs played so badly. Rather, I think we made them look bad.
So flip over to the Flames game and first thing you hear is Hrudey say “Habs are really struggling!” Maybe he is HH!
*click*
agree. habs were BEAT tonight.. BEAT.. soundly, by the better team.
I had Khaira as BELOW replacememt level for 2 last yrs.
Not sure what happened. Bit he Actually looks strong amd good …happy for him
Way to clog the middle in the Dzone
exactly 100 percent.
HUNTER;
Bouchard is the most skilled already. So nice to watch
Smith always starts hot. But yes.lokks way better than Racicot – I mean Koskinen
Khaira is running 3rd line
We’ve seen JJ get wake up calls before and show up for a stretch of games. But we need to see sustain.
When he plays well, like he is right now, his importance to the team is dead obvious. He needs to play like this for a whole season. The bottom 6 needs him too much.
I’d take as little as 1/2 season, or every other game (fair). Since draft has shown 5-10 games / season, or just enough to squat the roster. I was a fan of the pick, a supporter thru his ELC, but now – i.e. Now – or never.
I want to see an every day player who shows up every day to play. When you’re a bottom 6 lunchpail guy, you can’t be taking night’s off… let alone weeks off like he’s been doing the past few seasons.
Yes, we’ve seen him play well but we haven’t seen it in about 3 years, even small samples of it. Yes, consistency has always been a major issue for him but he hasn’t even show small sample for a very long time. Good arrow, for now.
Oilers the newest of juggernauts
After shutting out the Hab-nots?
Nice. Not flashy, but that’s comfortably one of the best games of the year.
there was good defensive neutral zone work tonight. Dangerous montreal rushes were make difficult by good positional backcheck and defending…. and I think a lot of things are happening.. this only works when there is a natural flow and rhythms… and actually it means the D are giving less pucks away and we are getting good break outs.. that’s my take. Better defensive breakouts, mean more team speed and flow, and translates to neutral zone defense in an odd way.
A very strong win, a complete game by pretty much everyone
This little run has really turned around the season
3 days off and fingers crossed JP is healthy moving forward
Nice Smith
Absorbing everything
No rebounds
Way to go boys, full value for the shutout.
shutout in mtl by Smitty! that’s big.
Two very different teams with a very different game than last time
Have a nice flight home fellas! Good job!!!!
So Happy. Not just with the win, but that they have 2 straight wins when McD & Drai didnt dominate
Who knew that JJ Khaira, Mike Smith and Tyler Ennis were going to turn this team legit?
consistency… … perhaps JJ has found it this time. I’ve not seen him this confident is his O zone possession , I think ever.
Holland and Tippett.
Credit due, if it’s only a few games.
Their are 117 def pairs with 55 min together.
only 15 pairs have less than 33% off zone start%.
only one def pair has less than 10% off zone start%
Lagesson – Larson #15 dpair 1.07 Evga/60 9.09% offzs%
As a pair they only see 35 on fly start/60.
would bet that 70+% is without pocession.
I had hoped they would be amazing.
But 9.09% Fuck!
They have been a solid 2nd pairing to the Nurse top pairing.
Nurse is trending Norris!
Oh boy are we going to be calling him Nurrise now?
they seem to be a good defense first pair, will be useful against opposing 1st and second lines. I’d like to see those stats… percentage against top 6… probably 40%. Will be interesting to see when Bear gets healthy.
They’ve looked very good together. Thanks for the stats to confirm.
What’s your read on Tyson Barrie? Inquiring minds want to know.
I’ll be happy if Smith holds every puck for a face off till this one is over.
Blatant hook against Larsson on his clear from the face off.
I’m impressed
not a single player under 10 minutes
all D between 16-20 min
Domo arigato, Mr. ‘Mamoto…a yeoman-like effort to clear the zone there.
My thoughts on tonights game:
1 – Bouchard possibly the top defender already.
2 – Mike Smith is the starting goaltender until they find a new one.
3 – RNH is man sized finally, he was actually gooning it up at one point.
4 – Nurse is finally getting it! He’s playing great like advertised.
5 – Kahun gets dissed but looking engaged so I dont know.
Incredible: Khiara is running a great 4th line, and I have always been a huge fan of 4th lines
Nurse is by far the team’s top defender – in my opinion.
Its not even close.
He’s in the Norris conversation right now – for real.
in the top 8.
You might be right.
Since the team started playing Bouchard, the entire defence has solidified in ways it never did before. Bouchard for his part is easily the most skilled puck carrier on the defence. Therefore, I have an argument that wouldn’t be too afraid to take up a case vs yours, councillor.
We seem to have two 3 1/2 lines, rather than a 3rd and a 4th. I think they’ve seen more or less equal ice time.
Larsson’s battle before Kailer’s lunge was very strong.
Larsson playing VERY good hockey for the last few weeks.
I dunno.. but one thing is that he’s been kind of ‘not noticed’.. meaning things are cleaned up and danger killed early… of late. No news is good news.. steady.
Lagesson plays low event hockey. Larsson plays better with less chaos. He can focus on just being mean.
Turris to me looks like he’s cashing checks.
AHL please.
Things You Thought You’d Never Hear:
“Turris’s speed negates icing…”
ya, i heard that one too…. i went.. ‘what’?
If the Oiler end up finishing off this win, does that mean we can start counting the wins against Ottawa or do they remain less worthy?
You have to ask your buddy. Notice he is quite absent tonight. Go figure!
yeah that’s really strange… I wonder why 😉
Ottawa is no joke. Some sub part goaltending but they are a tenacious fast team… aesthetically an interesting team too in my view… Ottawa is going to win some games.
They have also beat the top 2 teams in the division
Bouchard caught reaching in
Ya, not a shift for EB He had a couple of gaffs