The Right Stuff

by Lowetide

Glenn Anderson was 16 when he scored 62 goals in 64 games for the Bellingham Blazers of the BCHL in 1977-78. Miro Satan scored 42 goals in 39 games for Dukla Trencin in the Czech league at age 19. Carter Savoie scored 53 goals in 54 games for the Sherwood Park Crusaders of the AJHL at age 17.

One of the keys to finding outstanding talent is context. Where is the prospect playing his games, and at what age? What is his role? Gems can be found, by eye, by math and by properly placing accomplishments in context.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

WHEELER’S SAVOIE ARTICLE

It doesn’t happen every year, but when it does you can get a lot smarter in a hurry. Scott Wheeler from The Athletic has gifted us with The Gifted series over the last several years. Oilers fans may have read his articles on Evan Bouchard and Raphael Lavoie. Each of those pieces drilled down on an area that made the player special, a truly worthwhile prospect for any NHL team.

He’s back, this time on the subject of Carter Savoie. I try never to tell you what to do, but in this article Wheeler identifies what makes Savoie special and why it matters. I highly recommend reading it, and we’ll have Scott on the Lowdown next week to talk about Savoie and the 2021 draft.

SAMUELSSON

The Red Wings liked Jesper Samuelsson enough to select him with the final selection of the 2011 draft, but knew what he was on draft day. Hakan Andersson: “He needs to work on several other things to just be a regular in Sweden. Statistically, he will probably never make it to the NHL, I just want to see him improve year by year and then we will see how far that will take him.”

Andersson and the DRW had projected successfully many times in the past, including in 1999 when Henrik Zetterberg was chosen in the seventh round.

According to the Central Scouting Bureau, Zetterberg was 5.10, 154 pounds on his draft day. Daniel Sedin was 6.02, 187, Henrik Sedin was 6.03, 196 same day. Zetterberg played in a lower level in Sweden (division 1) in 98-99 and scored 37gp, 15-13-28 for Timra. Daniel Sedin played that season in the SEL, scoring 21-21-42 in 50 games for MoDo. Henrik was 12-22-34 in 49 games for the same club.

I think Hakan Andersson saw terrific skills in Zetterberg but would also argue that math (28 points in 37 games) and level of play (considering age) put him above the event horizon as well. How many kids who weigh 154 pounds are competing at that level at age 17 in a league where much older men battle?

Timra’s leading scorer that year was Mikael Lind, who was 26 years old at the time. I think most 154 pound Swedish kids were playing in Sweden’s junior leagues, far from the older men.

Is there something that makes a player special on draft day? Draft that guy. Wheeler’s article addresses this area of drafting brilliantly.

Petruzzelli was drafted on Ken Holland’s watch in Detroit, in fact he traded Tomas Jurco to the Chicago Blackhawks to get the pick. He is from Wilbraham, Massachusetts that’s a suburb of Springfield. American kids who play in the NCAA often sign with American teams on August 15, but he’s a fine prospect and a name to keep in mind. Tyler Wright would have been scouting director at the time of his selection.

DUNCAN KEITH

I’m a fan of the player but he’s expensive and it’s a reach to place him in a key role for the 2020-21 season. The rumours are strong that he’s headed west, that doesn’t mean Edmonton necessarily.

I remain convinced that Caleb Jones-Adam Larsson is the best bet until the deadline, if a free agent is added someone at the Dmitry Kulikov-Derek Forbort level is the best plan.

We’ll see.

HAPPY CANADA DAY!

This is a different Canada Day, but I remain a proud Canadian in spite of the year past and the news constantly revealing new devastating truths. I looked up the closest residential school to mine when growing up, it was 51.4 kilometres away. I never knew. I didn’t ask, but was just a kid. I didn’t ask later, how much of that is on me? On us? Those are answers we need to find, and it begins with finding every grave, trying to find every family, and finding out who knew and when. I don’t think we get past this ever, but owning it, acknowledging it, building a better path and showing true sorrow are the only way. Who knew? Were my teachers aware? I can’t imagine they were but someone had to know, and someone in our community surely knew.

I have a BIL who is an indigenous individual, he was adopted at age 2 or 3. My wife’s entire family was adopted, he is not the only person of colour in the family. I always thought it was such a wonderful story (her parents adopting nine children), but now I wonder what might have happened if they hadn’t adopted her brother those many years ago. Would he have landed in a residential school? Would he have survived? This is a good man, he was at my house last year, didn’t say a word when I burned the steaks because I was worried about my daughter.

What do I say the next time I see him? What can I say?

This Canada Day I’m going to celebrate my country, because I love it so very much. I’m proud to be Canadian. I’m also going to reflect on what happened 51.4 kilometres down the road, while I was merrily on my way to school each morning.

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Lewis Grant

I have a BIL who is an indigenous individual, he was adopted at age 2 or 3. My wife’s entire family was adopted, he is not the only person of colour in the family. I always thought it was such a wonderful story (her parents adopting nine children), but now I wonder what might have happened if they hadn’t adopted her brother those many years ago. Would he have landed in a residential school? Would he have survived?

Sadly, many people today would accuse your in-laws of cultural genocide. Your in-laws did an incredibly generous thing by adopting him (and others). Yet academics, journalists, and keyboard warriors, the kinds of people who know nothing of their sacrifice, are trying to demean it.

Canada is a country to be proud of, and people like your in-laws are one example of why.

Last edited 2 months ago by Lewis Grant
Harpers Hair

Someone actually downvoted your comment.

Sad.

meanashell11

I agree with you HH.

Fuhrious

Maybe those downvoting were some of your journalist friends that were annoyed to be called know-nothings?

Fuhrious

Yes us academics who spent our whole lives trying to understand a problem and produce results that benefit everyone are a class of people to be universally despised. Jesus Christ anti-intellectualism has really taken hold as a mainstream idea, hasn’t it?

meanashell11

I think you missed the entire point of the second paragraph…….

Fuhrious

I didn’t miss the point of your paragraph. I said the last sentence in it insults entire groups of people for no reason, and we don’t deserve it.

Last edited 2 months ago by Fuhrious
Munny

But that’s exactly what academia is good at doing. See CRT.

Fuhrious

At times in your life, it may have been clever point to point out some fussy academic is nit picking a tiny piece of a broad argument to pretend the whole is flawed.

Obviously, that’s not the case here, as I’m just calling someone out for insulting and generalizing a group of people and not trying to say that reflects on his point.

Pretty bizarre of you to claim that I am disingenuously trying to shift an argument away from the intended substance and then immediatley trying to just chuck in some hobby horse argument of your about how race is discussed.

jimdewger

Simple dismissals of critical race theory is an easy way to show your bias

Munny

Pretty much when academia rejected Greco-Roman/Enlightenment values, yes.

Ever since, the academy has been well-deserving of any scorn directed its way.

And those cowardly scholars that are too fearful to speak out against the “culture” that has infested our post-secondary institutions, are just as deserving.

Fuhrious

Ah, so your position is that all academics should be insulted and scorned. Good to know what kind of person you are.

Munny

After reading Leavins’ article, I wonder if including the rights to Tyson Barrie would make sense? They get first kick at the cat and can take him off the market.

jp

Barrie AND Boqvist on RD though?

Would be an interesting way to build a team.

Harpers Hair

X-Tracy Lane (@TreenasOil) Tweeted:
Oilers had a tentative deal with Larson there has been a change of heart on the Larson side talks currently off could go to free agency……as per Garfield

https://twitter.com/TreenasOil/status/1410845303037517824?s=20

jp

Not the tweet 5 minutes before this one?

X-Tracy Lane

@TreenasOil

·

14m

Kieth deal looks to be a multi player Jones among names going to Chicago, Koskinen is also on the list…..as per Garfield

Both interesting in their own right.

Last edited 2 months ago by jp
Harpers Hair

Including Jones actually makes a lot of sense for both teams

Gerta Rauss

If Jones is involved in the deal, I would hope that Strome is also involved

I’m not sure what the whole deal would look like, but Koskinen for Keith straight up favors Chicago imo, I wouldn’t want to add Jones to that without more value coming Edmonton’s way

OriginalPouzar

Why would anyone re-post a Tracy Lane tweet?

OriginalPouzar

Yes, I generally agree, coach’s deployment is very meaningful but, of course, its not without noise – what does the coach value as far as type of game, is the coach deploying based on current play or trying to spark what once was, are the minutes due to lack of depth/options, etc.

Redbird62

There were 54 instances of a Chicago left defenseman playing over 22 minutes in a game this past season. Duncan Keith accounted for 40 of them, with Zadarov getting 7, de Haan 4, Stillman 3, and Kalynuk 1. Keith led all left defenders in time on ice in all 3 categories (EV, PP and PK) and was the leader on the team amongst all D in total ice time per game, but other right defenders edged him out in each of the individual categories. Zadarov is a 26 year old former 1st round pick, who was gained in a trade for Saad and Chicago inked him to a 1-yr $3.2 million deal for this past season. de Haan is also a former first rounder, who is now 30 and getting paid $4.5 million. Maybe not the best competition to beat out, but there is no question that he was Chicago’s number 1 left D on merit for the whole season. And Chicago was in a playoff spot through the end of March, and still in the hunt through 45 of 56 games, so they were playing to win despite starting the season in a rebuild.

While all of Koekkoek, Lagesson, Jones, and, next year certainly, Russell would be cheaper options than Keith, I believe Keith would actually perform better than any of them overall. Whatever % chance there is that Klefbom comes back, a left side of Nurse, Klefbom and Keith would be pretty nice in the short term, if Holland could swing some cap magic to lesson the impact of Keith’s AAV.

Side

Someone tell me how to feel about this potential Keith deal!

(+) for Keith being a good acquisition assuming the Oilers don’t give up too much for him

(-) for Keith being a bad acquisition no matter what

leadfarmer

How about a 3rd option
ok if they retain 50% and we don’t give back much or they take back Neal

OriginalPouzar

Giving up anything of value is a no-starter.

Acquiring him without any bad cap going back for both years is a bad idea.

Trading James Neal for him would be fantastic and I’d give a small asset, like the Marody RFA rights, for that.

Bank Shot

Why does Chicago agree to take back Neal though? It adds over $7 million in real dollars that need to be paid out and Neal wasn’t an everyday player last season.

I would imagine that if Chicago were to take back Neal in trade it would require something like a first round pick going to Chicago as well.

I think I’d be willing to see that happen. Not sure how else you can get rid of Neal. I can’t stomach the buyout either.

leadfarmer

https://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1410777194582978563?s=21

some real duds available this offseason
40% GF is Ahl caliber

Ryan

Petry had an xgf% of 45% the last year he played for us.

Good thing we dumped the bum for a 3rd/5th round picks.

Not many d playing #1 minutes on a bad team are going to tread water on xgf%

Hampus Lindolm was one I found, but his actual GF% was 45.

OriginalPouzar

The Keith numbers with Kane off the ice are very interesting given, if this does happen, its likely Keith plays 2LD with Larsson who played 84% of his minutes without McDavid this past season….

defmn

Leavins dropping hints.

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-edmonton-oilers-are-front-runners-in-the-duncan-keith-stakes

Keith recently changed agents, from Ross Gurney at R.W.G. Sports management to Edmonton’s Gerry Johansson of The Sports Corporation.

Oh, and one final note, related or not: Gerry Johansson also represents UFA goaltender Chris Drieger of the Florida Panthers. Just sayin’.

Reja

Who’s going the other way Mikko or Neal +

Ryan

Hmm. Mikko makes a lot more sense to buyout for the Hawks. $1.5m x 2.

I don’t like that nearly as much for the Oilers as we’d be stuck buying out Neal.

If Keith has one more year left in him and hangs it up after that, it could still work.

Reja

I kinda want the trade to happen Keith could be a hell of a mentor to Nurse, Bouchard and company.

OriginalPouzar

I can’t get on board with that.

In order to take on the Keith contract, there needs to be bad cap going back for both seasons – in my opinion.

jp

I agree the Oilers can’t be on the hook for $5.3M in 22-23.

Both players with 50% retained fixes that though.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, that does change the equation a bit. Not sure that works for the Hawks though.

jp

It works a hell of a lot better for the Hawks than taking Neal back, no?

You just suggested yourself Neal + Marody’s rights.

I really think Koskinen only would be far more attractive to the Hawks, whether to buyout or to actually put him in net.

defmn

I was more interested in the Driedger comment to be honest. Maybe Koskinen if Holland thinks he gets Driedger to pair with Smith. I could get behind that.

I would also be fine with moving Klef at this point in spite of OP’s 729 posts reminding us that we don’t know for sure yet. 😉

Neal works for me as well.

Last edited 2 months ago by defmn
Reja

I have said on numerous occasions no way in hell Kelfbom is going to be picked by the Kraken if left unprotected but I’m retracting that statement. I think he does now as a cap ceiling deal and they also receive another D as well. I keep hearing Driedger and now this slow leak of Keith where’s there smoke there’s fire. If we can get a 1A Goalie and a 1B Defence-men I say Hurrah! Hurrah!

Last edited 2 months ago by Reja
OriginalPouzar

When I read that Klef would work for the Hawks in exchange for Keith for LTIR reasons, I think its prudent to note his agent states in no uncertain words, this week (reported today) that Klef is doing everything he can to resume his NHL career.

If that’s 729 times, then that’s 729 times……

Neal for Keith works for me without even thinking about it. Klefbom for Keith, not at all.

defmn

730 😉

Munny

Wow. That doesn’t sound good. I’d be planning for no Klefbom right now based on that statement. I had been “dreaming” of his return too…

Jaxon

I really like the idea of signing Petruzzelli. He’s already quite far along in his developemnt, and he’s still trending up. Holland and Wright should know him well. Maybe Petruzzelli would like to re-connect with 2 of his former leaders. He might instantly become our top goalie prospect. At least until they draft Cossa.

OriginalPouzar

Where is he going to play though?

I wouldn’t put him ahead of any of the incumbent three at this point.

Jaxon

Really? I think he’d be at the top of our goalie prospects. Skinner has had stretches of being good, but he hasn’t been great. Konovalov shows promise, but he’s small for a goalie and the KHL save percentages are often inflated. So I wouldn’t depends on him brining those numbers across the pond. Wells is nearly done as a prospect. Rodrigue hasn’t really put together one outstanding season though he’s the youngest of the bunch so could still turn it around and he’s also not very big by today’s goalie standards. Petruzzelli is 6’5″ and has 2 seasons of .920 or higher SV%. I like his odds better than the rest, so I’d give him a chance at starter or 1A/1B in Bakersfield.

healthyscratch

I highly recommend the movie Indian Horse on Netflix for a glimpse into the residential schools. It was a shocking eye opener for me.

greenshifter

Yes, same here. Very powerful.

leadfarmer

I would rather re-sign Barrie than trade for Keith. Neither one can defend but at least one can put up points

leadfarmer

https://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1410342836160057346?s=21

Duncan Keith at a glance. No defense mid range offense gets murdered with murderous minutes.

Ryan

All else being equal of course I’d alsorather have Barrie…

Except Barrie wants term and that blocks Bouchard.

Also, signing Barrie doesn’t help get rid of dead cap (Neal).

Neither does Barrie fix the hole at 2LD.

koskidaddy

The Blackhawks literally improved when Keith was off the ice. He had a 43.53 GF% and 41.88 xGF% this season, and is turning 38 in a few weeks.

Keith would be a massive liability. I would prefer Kris Russell to him, and I think Russell is a 7D at best.

OriginalPouzar

Lots of on-ice analytics one can pick and choose from.

One could also see that his top two partners were Ian Mitchell and Adam Boquist and both were drags on him – he performed better way from both.

I’m not saying I’m on board with acquiring Keith but all on-ice analytics need some context.

koskidaddy

From Kurt Leavins, the Oilers are the frontrunners to land Duncan Keith: https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-edmonton-oilers-are-front-runners-in-the-duncan-keith-stakes

Keith wouldn’t even make our team, he’s that bad. The Blackhawks (a basement team) got better when he was on the bench.

Chiarelli destroyed the ELC window. Holland might destroy the McDavid era. Old Boys Club prevails again.

innercitysmytty

Explain how this move would destroy the McDavid era? I’m not a big fan of the move or the player at this point in his career, but if the $$ going the other way are more than what’s coming back I’m not sure how the risk would be that great if it’s for 2 years on the 2/3 pairing.

Ryan

This is a good take.

Look, not many complain more about Oilers management or deals that haven’t happened yet than I do…

But I don’t get the consternation with acquiring Keith (provided Neal is headed the other direction).

A Neal buyout is $1.916 m on the cap for the next 4 years.

With Klefbom unlikely to return, you’re going to have to find a stopgap 2LD whether that be a Kulikov or a Forbort or someone better. The price for Forbort likely goes up and Kulikov had a rebound season, so you could be paying $1.5m to $1.8m depending on the market for either of these guys, neither of which has a lick of offensive ability.

As for the fancy stats, any player who’s no longer a #1d, playing #1 d minutes on a bad team (21/31) is going to get caved. That’s just reality.

The other side of the coin. Duncan Keith has $76 million in career earnings and is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer.

The second year of his contract pays him $1.5m in cash. Now that’s a lot of money to many of us, but Duncan Keith has more money in couch cushions than that.

If he’s finished in the last year of his contract, he’s as good of bet to just retire as anyone.

OriginalPouzar

I’m still not sure about the “Klefbom unlikely to return”, given the words of his agent reported today.

pts2pndr

The question is given what we do know what is the prudent way to proceed? As fans we don’t know what we need to know to make the decision on how the team should proceed. It is distinctly possible that the powers to be also don’t know!

pts2pndr

Duncan Keith will be worth his cap hit on what he brings to a very inexperienced core. He is a warrior that has been through the wars and what he brings to the team given the term could be invaluable! The Oilers tried to acquire him as a young unestablished player many years ago. Depending on the cost and term it is in my opinion a no brainer.

Scungilli Slushy

Keith with less TOI, not having to be the lead facing the other’s best, not babysitting Boqvist, playing behind better centres (Toews didn’t play last season) would probably be the Oilers 2nd best D behind Nurse.

I think he might flourish. He’s had a hard slog after 3 Cups. The chase with high end talent I’m sure would get the juices flowing for him.

On what I feel is the most likely team to jump into the elite.

The Avs and Bolts are going to lose depth, the Isles don’t have elite talent. The Bruins and Caps are hanging on to the past.

Watch out for the Kings tho.

Rondo

If it does come down to Edmonton and Seattle, If I were Keith I’d choose Edmonton. At 38 yrs old he might only have 1 year left in him. Nice to have a Stanley Cup winner on the team, but the cost needs to be right.

koskidaddy

Good thing he’s only turning 38 in 2 weeks!

Harpers Hair

Arvidson led the low scoring Predators with 22 EVP last season.

DevilsLettuce

Brosart Ravioli is a part time cab driver.

Rondo
Harpers Hair

Keith led all Chicago defensemen in TOI last season at over 23 minutes.

Eh Team

And was absolutely awful doing it

leadfarmer

He’s barely even a defenseman at this point

Harpers Hair

Worth noting he was tied with David Perron at 35th in SOG last season.

Harpers Hair

Career shooting 11.4%

Last season 6.6%

If that reverts to average he’s likely a 25 goal second line winger.

godot10

Flattop doesn’t believe in quality shots. He believes in volume shooting. Expect that shooting percentage might go lower.

Harpers Hair

The Kings were 27th in the league last season in SOG/GP.

They could use some volume shooters.

jp

AND 25th in shooting %. It’s kind of a hallmark for them.

pts2pndr

They could use a lot of things!

Oil2Oilers

Just read the final paragraph to my Mother as part of my Canada day.

Well said LT. You are the poet laureate of hockey blogging and help us understand and relate to the wider world as well.

Rondo

Duncan Keith is turning 38 in July, wait till he retires if Oilers think his experience is so helpful.

godot10

The OIlers might be able to get him for no net additional AAV…i.e. for “free”.

If the Oilers can use existing dead or wasted cap space to get him, Keith would be a worthwhile add.

Neal
Koskinen
If Klefbom can’t play, Klefbom’s LTIR

Chicago can free up cap space by trading Keith to an asset they can buyout or for extra LTIR money to spend on players.

Gerta Rauss

I don’t know much about the CHI goaltending, but they could play Koskinen for 60 games, and then move him for a modest return at the deadline

jp

Koskinen for Keith also seems plausible to me. Personally it would require 50% retained for both players so the Oilers aren’t on the hook for the full $5.3M in 22-23, but it strikes me as a lot more likely than Neal or Klefbom for Keith.

Last edited 2 months ago by jp
OriginalPouzar

From Klef’s agent, there won’t be clarity on Klef’s status until the fall but the player is doing everything he possibly can to resume an NHL career.

Holland cannot trade Klefbom in this type of deal, in my opinion.

pts2pndr

Betting on Klefbom is like trying to fill an inside straight. Not impossible but the odds aren’t great.

Randle McMurphy

If Cossa is still there at 19 and the OIlers aren’t going to choose him, they should consider trading down with Detroit (at 22) assuming Detroit doesn’t take Wallstedt at 6.

I wonder if Kenny has any connections in Motor City?

Last edited 2 months ago by Randle McMurphy
leadfarmer

So after falling in their laps last year the Canucks are trying to move Schmidt
yikes!!

Randle McMurphy

Everything Jim Benning touches turns to Schmidt.

Side

Don’t worry. The Sedins who have a long history of playing hockey were brought in to right the ship with their vast management experience.

Reja

The Sedins are connected.

pts2pndr

The Sedins are a class act! I never liked the Canucks but the Sedins were special! They are deserving of the respect of all hockey fans!

Side

I respect the Sedins as players and they seem like good guys.

Doesn’t mean they are qualified for front office positions, though.

Redbird62

He never has been and likely never will be an elite defenseman in the NHL. He was a good fit in the Vegas system with a very balanced roster, but they sure moved on from him pretty quick. While it was a camp dump to pay for Pietrangelo, if he was worth anywhere close to his $6 million cap hit for 5 more years at the time, Vegas could have gotten a lot more than a third rounder for him. Benning turned out to not be as crafty or opportunistic as he thought. Its a bit like how good Mark Fayne looked in New Jersey before the Oilers grabbed him. Fayne’s fall was more dramatic, but it was only 4 x 3.6 million (5% of the cap vs 7.5%). Somewhat delayed buyer’s remorse.

leadfarmer

His puck moving numbers have plummeted since arriving to Vancouver as have his defensive numbers. But trying to move that contract will be tough, and who is actually going to play defense. Hughes?? Juolevi? Myers? Braffery? Not a single actual defenseman left on the roster (although I do like Ratbones)

Ranford.85

Where’s HH on this one? He wouldn’t shut up about how great this was for the Nucks when the trade happened.

godot10

Arvidsson’s playoff statistics are extremely underwhelming.
61 games 12 goals 15 assists 27 points.

15-20% less than his regular season production.

How many hobbits does a team need?

Kahun would be a better value for money bet a this point for $1 million.

Redbird62

Further to your point, in the past 2 seasons, 5 on 5, Kahun has actually outscored Viktor 18 goals to 17, and 39 points to 7 in 100 less minutes. Viktor did get 11 power play points in that span to Kahun’s 3 but played almost 4 times as much since 3 guys hog all the pp time on the Oilers (justifiably so). And Arvidsson, like Kahun, doesn’t kill penalties either. Viktor has just as much chance of being the next Turris coming out of Nashville as bouncing back to a level justifying anywhere close to a $4.2 million cap hit. Even if Holland had a shot at him, which there is no way to know, for Holland to be justifiably criticized, Viktor better get 25-30 goals and 50+ points next season in L.A and Holland not found another solution to the Oilers top 6 needs.

geowal

Well said on Canada Day LT, as always, you can find the balance. There are truly great things about this country that are worth celebrating, but there are also shames that need to be and are being acknowledged and addressed, perhaps too slowly. If someone wishes me a happy Canada Day today I have no trouble doing so back; but if people don’t want to celebrate it this year, or any year, that is fine too.
I never considered myself particularly well informed about residential schools, but it is clear from the level of surprise/shock/outrage out there that my level was higher than most. The only surprising thing here to me is the level of surprise. But that’s okay. If people weren’t aware they will need some time to process this, and if they need Canada Day to do it, fine.
I’m celebrating by driving 750 km to GP to go camping and visit friends/family for a week in sweet, no mask wearing glory.

OriginalPouzar

Arvidson is a 0.5 P/G, 5’8’/180 winger that has some recent injury risk and 3 more years at over $4M per year – plus the deal cost draft capital.

He’s Yamamoto but more expensive and cost draft capital.

A nice player to add but, with Kailer in the fold, not really the perfect player and, given acquisition cost plus cap space, not an ideal acquisition.

Of course, Holland should be fired because LA spent a 2nd and 3rd (neither of which the Oilers have) to acquire this player.

koskidaddy

Holland is getting paid $5M/year to make creative moves that will help the team, not sit in his cabin all day and make excuses. Let’s not forget, the reason that the Oilers don’t have those picks is because Holland traded them.

Arvidsson is a solid player that shot just 6% this season, uncharacteristically low. This is reminding me a lot of when people said “Hall only has 2 goals, he’s not good”.

So keep making excuses for Holland. I’m sure that was what you did with Chiarelli as well.

Bill Clinternet

You’re a classic Twitter know-it-all. Being a GM is so easy when you’re on Twitter in a basement

Reja

It’s go time Holland needs to use some of his markers that he’s accumulated over the years. He needs to get a 3C that can win face offs a winger that can shoot and most importantly a Goaltender that is above average.

Side

Why do you think it’s relevant what Holland makes? And why are you making assumptions about what Katz is paying him to do? Were you in the room when Katz told Holland he is paying Holland $5 million to make a bunch of “creative” moves?

defmn

If this was September and TC was underway I would agree with this. SInce it is the first of July and we still have the draft, expansion draft and free agency in front of us it seems more than a little melodramatic.

DevilsLettuce

Comparing Arvidsson to a one time MVP of the league is amazing.

McNuge93

Good summary OP. I think we can do better for $4 mil a year. I’d rather have Tatar but only on a short term deal. What do people think he would get on a contract. Surely since he is inconsistent and benched by the Habs his value has got to be fairly low.

OriginalPouzar

There are certain reports out there that he’s been out with injury, not healthy scratched – I mean CBS sports, but still.

Last edited 2 months ago by OriginalPouzar
Randle McMurphy

I for one have had enough of guessing what the roster is going to look like.

Think I’ll jump in my time machine and see where things end up at the end of the summer. (flux capacitor 1.21 gigawatts)
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I’m back 🙂 …….. you’re not going to like it….

McNuge93

What? Did HH resign Smith for another year? I know none of us liked that last year.

Randle McMurphy

I cannot violate the Prime Directive, even to save lives and/or this franchise, This directive takes precedence over any and all other considerations, and carries with it the highest moral obligation.

Gerta Rauss

Are you former poster Andy Dufresne..?

Randle McMurphy

I believe Andy Dufresne was a fictional character from the movies.

Gerta Rauss

I had a clever retort prepared suggesting your new moniker should have been Randall Stevens

You know, the silent, silent partner

We’ll just leave it at that

MushedPeas

We are all Andy Dusfresne.

Jordan

Considering the odds that any of the temporal Agents would let you go to the future and come back with your actual memories of the events in question, I suspect your memories have likely been altered.

This would limit the risk of corrupting the timeline by:
Ensuring your memories of the future do not along with the true timeline, so when you share them and that doesn’t happen, you look either silly, or like a wacko
Limiting the idea that time travel is both possible and a tool to gain an advantage in the present, and
Thereby maintaining the temporal prime directive.

P.S.
Don’t piss if the Romulans. It’s bad for everyone.

pts2pndr

LT
re the residential schools
My thought is a memorial wall along the lines of the Vietnam war memorial with all the names. This would be prominently displayed on the parliament grounds in Ottawa. We all need to own it! It is our history and the best way to never repeat it is keep it prominently displayed. I don’t think there is any parent in Canada that can’t empathize with the parents that lost a child or children.

unca miltie
  • That is an interesting idea. I wonder if there is a way of getting all the names. I must say I have no answers to the way forward. I do know that our government and many churches played roles in trying to make our natives into Europeans. I believe many thought it was for the best. l hope that our general society did not condone the abuses that happened. I also know that we have tried to monetize reconciliation by paying settlements to survivors. I have a relative who benefited but i don’t think the money healed the scars just made some parts of her life easier.
  • I have a friend who is a respected elder in Maskwacis. I asked him what it was like in the schools just after we heard about the first 215. All he would say is that it was bad. He had no interest in expanding and I just let it go.
  • I think we are in for lot of difficult times.
  • My final comment is to thank LT for his way with words. You are a treasure.
pts2pndr

My idea is that the wall would be designed by the First Nations people possibly with the different nations within the whole also being acknowledged. As with the Vietnam war memorial there would be space left blank for the additional names that would surely follow. Another nice touch would be an annual Remembrance day but once again this as all things pertaining to the memorial are to be approved by the First Nations people first!

Bill

That is a grand idea for a memorial but with one change, have a memorial wall in each province. Reaches a larger audience.
I am of Métis, Treaty and Anglo-Saxon heritage. My late Mom was born Treaty but lived as a Métis as her adoptive Mother did before her. Technically, I could have my Treaty rights, as many of my cousins do but I’m proud of the way my adoptive Grandmother and Mom chose to do it.
My Grandmother was a child who lived through the Residential School Program. From the time I was knee high to a grasshopper, my Mom told me the stories that she had heard from her Mom. Looking back at it, I am thankful that the stories were passed down and that my Mom felt it wise to keep us informed back then. The frustration, anger and disappointment that many folks are feeling now were ingrained in my family many years ago and it isn’t quite the powder keg for us as it is for those who are just realizing the whole tragedy.
There will never be an easy fix, explanation or apology that is accepted by all. But let us learn from the mistakes of the past and hope for a better future. After all, regardless of skin tone, heritage, religion or anything else, we’re all in this together.

pts2pndr

Each province having a like memorial for their own dead or missing is an excellent idea. The reason for the central memorial being in Ottawa is so that it is clear to all that the Canadian Federal Government acknowledges and accepts the responsibility for its actions.

pts2pndr

This act by our government of the day is in my opinion as egregious as the Holocaust.

Randle McMurphy

And one at the Vatican.

Last edited 2 months ago by Randle McMurphy
Harpers Hair

Thomas Drance (@ThomasDrance) Tweeted:
As the Arvidsson price illustrates, the opportunities available to teams with cap flexibility will be stunning this offseason.

https://twitter.com/ThomasDrance/status/1410636098712256514?s=20

Munny

Whenever you think of government policy-making–especially when it is sold as some grand plan to make the world better–remember residential schools.

That’s all I ask this Canada Day. Honour Canada and its fine people by remembering the evils visited on our nation by Elites in the name of progress.

Harpers Hair

Justin McElroy (@j_mcelroy) Tweeted:
Lytton’s Main Street, before and after yesterday’s devastating fire. 

(Photo from a Chilliwack Fire Department member) https://t.co/OaoRvg1ch3

https://twitter.com/j_mcelroy/status/1410654902049595394?s=20

Harpers Hair

Justin McElroy (@j_mcelroy) Tweeted:
At that intersection was a home, the Canada Post office, the BC Ambulance Service, and a hotel. 

The MP for the area says 90% of Lytton has burned. 

The search for loved ones who haven’t registered at emergency centres is ongoing.

https://t.co/bQSQhtgkeQ

https://twitter.com/j_mcelroy/status/1410657672634847240?s=20

pts2pndr

God willing everyone is safe!

Woogie63

I find the sequence of RFA/UFA announcements odd. Why the apparent rush on Shore and RNH?

Why RNH ahead of Larsson? If RHN gets 8 years, what is the Larsson camp going to ask for?

If it was me I would have announced UFA RNH – probably my biggest investment – Last.

And

I would have waited until after August 15 to announce Shore type contract.

Sequence matter to the next contracts.

Redbird62

I’m sure Holland would like to do things like that but per CBA rules, contracts have to be submitted to the league office within 1 day of being executed. The Oiler have no control over that and they then almost immediately become public. No way Hopkins would wait signing such an important agreement to improve Holland’s perceived bargaining position with other players. And Holland does not slow play his talks with Nuge for that reason either. Far too risky for such a small benefit.

Last edited 2 months ago by Redbird62
DevilsLettuce

History shows anything over 3 years and 3 million for Larssons player type at his age is a bad bet.

Sequence means nothing tbh, just looking for grapes to squeeze.

Woogie63

Everything matters in negotiations- this is a science.
It isn’t grapes… it is degrees within an bargaining zone.
He has 5 unique key contracts to sign this summer, my math has him potentially paying $4M premium and 6 more years of term when he started with RNH.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t understand the consternation with the timing of these.

Shore was just getting a piece of business done – he will be the 12th to 14th forward heading in to the season and, if he’s beaten out for a lineup spot (or ever roster spot) at camp, he’ll be placed accordingly. That signing does not hamper the ability to sign/acquire any other competitors for his job and, if he’s beat out, zero cap implication if assigned to the AHL.

Nuge and Holland came to an agreement – why wouldn’t they sign it?

Nugent-Hopkins just signed on to play for the Oilers for his 10-18 years in the NHL – that is some sort of loyalty, especially considering the team for much of the first 10. I don’t think it would have been prudent to ask this player, who has shown such loyalty and commitment to the team, to wait a month to put pen to paper. That is not how loyalty is repaid and, of course, it comes with real risk vis-a-vis Seattle, who could also have offered 8-year and may have been willing to go materially higher than $5.1M per.

Larsson will get done, when it gets done – sound like it may be in the next week or so.

They likely won’t ask Adam to wait until after July 18 either.

Woogie63

if the Oilers are handing out long term contracts to valuable pieces of the puzzle – Kassian 4 years, RNH 8 years . If I was Larsson agent I would open with 6 years and trade from that position. The internal market has been set by Holland.

OriginalPouzar

We know term is important to Larson – his agent told Nugent-Bowman as much.

It Larsson instructs his agent to start at 6, Holland will start at 2 and they’ll end up at 4 with an AAV of less than $4MM.

If they want to use Nugent-Hopkin’s term as a comparison, then they will need to acknowledge the amount of AAV he gave up and the pay cut he took from his expiring deal, no?

Harpers Hair

No.

Unless they are discussing comparable term of 8 years.

Woogie63

My bet is Holland is/was at four years with Larsson and now it is going to be 5 year and maybe some extra AAV to accept 5 or less years.

That is how I would play it if I was Larsson agent getting my last payday on this player.

innercitysmytty

Not sure how Nuge’s deal really impacts Larsson’s leverage to push for more years. If he wants more than 4 years he’ll be going to FA.

OriginalPouzar

I think the team is likely wanting 3 years and the player 5 or more and they’ll settle on 4 years to get the AAV down below $4M.

Larsson is 28 now – he is very likely to get another NHL contract after a 3-4 year deal now.

Ryan

I remain convinced that Caleb Jones-Adam Larsson is the best bet until the deadline, if a free agent is added someone at the Dmitry Kulikov-Derek Forbort level is the best plan.

So now I have Woodguy, GeorgeXS, McCurdy, and now Lowetide on team Forbort.

Play Forbort on a pairing with Adam Larsson and literally nothing will happen on either end of the rink.

When they’re on the ice, you can go to the beer fridge in the garage or take a pit stop and not worry about missing anything.

Last edited 2 months ago by Ryan
Ryan

The one good thing about Oilers management is that they always see what’s right in front of them, particularly during the playoffs. I’m sure they noticed Forbort’s play and $1m cap hit.

Fuhrious

Remember when we were all debating Teubert vs Forbort as return for the Penner trade, and some wag said “let’s hold out for Sixbert!”?

OriginalPouzar

Beware of Slater Koekkoek.2

Wonder Llama

I’m on team Jones as well.

Both he and Bear may still have a few growing pains but I don’t think either should be dismissed as disappointments yet.

Something about defensemen and straight lines, right?

Randle McMurphy

Team Jones??

I can barrie contain myself.

judgedrude

Team Jones??

It’s not unusual to be loved by anyone…

Randle McMurphy

Now that guy could belt out a tune. 🙂

pts2pndr

I will cheer for Jones but unfortunately he is running out of runway particularly because of Samorukov and Broberg pushing. I believe he will have an NHL career but don’t think it will be as an Oiler.

defmn

How I see it as well. With Samorukov and Broberg right behind him he had less runway than is maybe fair to grab a spot for himself but the fact that he didn’t, I think, makes him vulnerable to trade or the expansion draft.

And I think he will have an NHL career as well. Just not in Edmonton.

Randle McMurphy

“What do I say the next time I see him? What can I say?”

Not sure if your question was rhetorical but,

I have a philosophy I live by; It’s that I have something to learn from every person I meet.

As uncomfortable as it may feel, I’d ask him his opinion of the subject. Is it something he’s thought much about? How does it make him feel today? Does he feel like the history of the residential schools has touched his life in some way(s)?

Then I’d be an attentive listener, for my sake and his.

I mean in your circle of friends/family/acquaintances, he’s probably as unique a voice as you’ll hear from, No?

I could be wrong, so I say this with guarded tone, but staying silent about the subject in his presence is probably the worst thing you could do.

I mean, if you speak with the honesty and candor that you did in the paragraph above, you really can’t go wrong. The truth has a ring to it. People are inherently drawn to it.

Last edited 2 months ago by Randle McMurphy
leadfarmer

I love this trade for LA. Injury bug hits him too often but is very much what I thought Yamamoto would become

Randle McMurphy

thought would?

or

think will ?

Redbird62

Yamamoto still has time. Arvidsson’s first meaningful season didn’t happen till he was 23 to 24. Yamamoto’s first half season at the age of 21-22 was more prolific as Arvidsson’s best. He did fall off certainly, but still had a more productive than Arvidsson at that age. Kailer will turn 23 just before the start of the upcoming season.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, that’s the player comparable.

Of note, in Arvidson’s 22 year old season (which Yamamoto just finished), he had 16 points in 56 games (and the second worse plus/minus on the team).

There is every chance that Yamamoto starts providing “Arvidson like player” as early as this season (he already did it for a couple of months in 2020).

OriginalPouzar

This Keith stuff is interesting.

He played a lot of minutes last season, 23 a game, and they’d be “easier minutes” in behind Nurse. At the same time, playing minutes doesn’t mean playing them well. I presume he would be provide better 2LD than the revolving door of Jones, Lagesson, Russell, Kulikov last season but, again, that’s just a presumption.

The term, if he can play that 2LD role to start this season, is almost perfect, given Sammy and Broberg perculating – coming but not ready for that spot yet (likely). Broberg likely to start in the AHL, a connected Oiler insider put out today.

That cap hit, straight up, is a non-starter. Neal for Keith would be a no-brainer from the Oilers’ perspective but I don’t see why the Hawks would do that.

Retaining half could work – might be a problem in 2022/23 when Keith is likely not needed though. Hawsk would probably want a real asset back if they retain.

I don’t think the Klefbom disposition works. Fact is, right now, Klef is doing everything he can to get back to the NHL – he’s far from given up. If Holland won’t have clarity on Klef’s return until the fall, moving him for negative value asset is simply WAY to risky.

Imagine they make that trade and then Klef is ready in October (or December)?

Reja

If the Oilers don’t protect Kelfbom then what?

Ryan

The buyout for Neal is a lot more favorable. The Hawks could make the trade straight across and then buyout Neal.

Ryan

I forgot to add… the Hawks would need to protect Keith.

They would be motivated to trade him prior to the draft to free up a protection slot.

Last edited 2 months ago by Ryan
TheGreatBigMac

Neal has a better buyout than Keith’s. Keith’s is approx $4M $4M $600K $600K. I don’t think Keith is worth much but if Chicago retains we might have to protect him. To me Keith for Neal + Jones + money (Neal is owed more, Oil pay the difference) or similar makes sense for both sides. The question is can Keith still play?

Ryan

Old man Keith terrorized us in the play in round. That’s my recollection. That was a year earlier of course.

I’d have to parse thru the data. Bad teams hide useful defensemen.

Certainly a deal around Neal would have some potential appeal.

Last edited 2 months ago by Ryan
Ryan
jp

Would be great if the Hawks tookNeal to buyout, but I’d guess the Hawks simply retaining makes the most sense.

godot10

The Oilers have bargaining power in this tranaction too, you know.

Chicago retaining on Keith makes less sense from the OIlers side. Neal for Keith. Chicago get more cap space over the first two years buying out Neal than retaining 50% on Keith.

A bad asset out for Keith makes much more sense for the Oilers than cap retention by Chicago.

Neal (plus maybe an asset) for Keith, means both the Oilers and Hawks have more cap space available in the next two years.

A deal with just retention on Keith means both teams have less cap space available over the next two years.

jp

There’s zero question it’s a better deal for the Oilers if Neal is included. Not for Chicago though.

Yes, both teams will have more cap in the next 2 years. But as you know a Neal buyout goes longer than that. It’s the reason we want him in the trade after all.

Chicago taking Neal then buying him out costs them more overall than Keith at 50% retained. And I don’t think those $2M they’ll be paying in 23-24 and 24-25 are any more attractive to Chicago than the Oilers I’m sure.

Sure, it’s possible the Oilers could attach a larger plus. I just don’t think it’s likely to actually happen.

I’d be very happy though if Holland can get Neal included in the deal.

OriginalPouzar

I highly recommend reading it, and we’ll have Scott on the Lowdown next week to talk about Savoie and the 2021 draft.

Wait, the Lowedown is still a thing? I thought yesterday was a reunion episode, like the recent Friends reunion.

OriginalPouzar

Nugent Bowman with an absolute wealth of inside info today:

https://theathletic.com/2683670/2021/07/01/what-im-hearing-about-the-oilers-offseason-the-latest-on-adam-larsson-oscar-klefbom-kraken-plans-and-more/

Won’t get in to too many details but there is an update on Klef from his agent (and they are meeting with Holland next week as scheduled) – likely very little clarity at this point, not until the fall, but it sounds like the agent was very very clear that Klef is doing absolutely everything he can to get back to resume his NHL career.

Also a tidbit on Blumel……… yes, sometimes a player doesn’t want to sign in the NHL…..

Last edited 2 months ago by OriginalPouzar
Oddspell

Holland said Blumel… …offers when his latest contract expires.

I don’t know the paywall quote policy so I’m just going to quote the first and last couple words of the snippet I’m referring to. You can ctrl + F on the page if you want.

I can’t lie, this sounds kind of fishy. These sound like somewhat (but not inherently) contradictory statements. On one hand you have Holland going “he didn’t want to sign with us” and on the other hand you have Blumel’s agent going “they weren’t interested in signing us”.

Then you have Matej’s agent talking about signing in the NHL down the road.

Maybe neither side had any interest in the other…. but it comes across more like passing the buck.

Harpers Hair

Yes.

I would wager the agent is already looking for an NHL team for his client.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Don’t worry. I understand KH is going to fill the ~15 month vacancy for player development sometime in August maybe. So maybe this doesn’t happen again.

Ken doesn’t seem to rush much.

OriginalPouzar

I think the player didn’t want to commit to an ELC at this time and wanted to keep control over his own development in the near term. He likely wants to keep playing in the Czech League at this point (no material monetary gain playing in Bakersfield on his ELC, except maybe the signing bonus if he would even get it). Yes, he could sign his ELC and be loaned to Europe but, of course, would need to the Oilers sign-off on that and it could end at any time.

The player may just want certainty in his near term life which he wouldn’t have if he signed his work status over to the Oilers.

I could be totally wrong on this but I would be surprised if he signed with another NHL org this season.

OriginalPouzar

because the player doesn’t want to sign today – yes, that’s my speculation but its what I was thinking when the “news” broke last week and it lines up with what Nugent-Bowman wrote today.

DevilsLettuce

“The refs have such a tough job to do. The game is so quick and things happen so fast. … However, I do wish there was maybe a little more consistency,” McDavid said, per The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman. “That’s what we’re looking for as players.”

McDavid added: “The other sports have been able to do that from the regular season to the playoffs”

Spicy

GordieHoweHatTrick

“Eye in the sky” as per another poster here (sorry can’t recall name at the moment).
it is really the only way to go….

Munny

That year difference between Savoie and Mork is huge.

koskidaddy

Duncan Keith is a liability at his age. He’s one of the worst defensemen in the entire NHL now. I would rather have some random AHL defenseman over him.

Arvidsson traded to the Kings for a 2nd and a 3rd. Holland should’ve been all over that. Arvidsson ould’ve been a great fit with McDavid

leadfarmer

Duncan Keith is done. Great career but I will not be happy when we trade for him.
I dont mind that we didnt get Arvidsson as we already have Yamo but I hope that we do get an upgrade on F or two. Looking at you Palat and Saad

Harpers Hair

Interesting that the Kings now have 3 smurfs after signing Blake Lizotte and Vladimir Tkachev.

fistycuff

Good morning LT and happy Canada day. I have an adopted indigenous sister who was born with FAS (fetal alcohol syndrome). She was adopted in 1972 when I was 4 years old, and after speaking with my mother yesterday, I was told that if mom and dad did not adopt her, she would have went to a residential school. We are slowly being made aware of the horrors that took place in these schools. I am so happy my parents were able to save my sister from a likely horrible existence. Unlike you, I am no longer a proud Canadian due to a multitude of reasons which are much too political to discuss on your wonderful forum. The best way to reconcile…is to acknowledge that Canada has huge warts and that as a country we have many issues. The second step is to make sure it never happens again. Just say no to Kulikov.. and we should be ok. ;)🙄

Brewha Ha

When our prime minister was put into office, he told us we have no identity as a people. The world is getting to know who we are…we are now beginning to have an identity and it’s not very pretty.

Last edited 2 months ago by Brewha Ha
TheGreatBigMac

We have no identity as a people? Are we not the country that fought and liberated Europe, twice? Are we not the country that has provided peace keepers around the world to keep the peace in volatile situations? Are we not the country of world class hockey players, curlers and many other sports? Are we not a country that welcomes immigrants and refugees from around the world? Are we not a country that gives generously to those in need? Are Canadians not known the world over for their polite and friendly demeanor?

First Nations peoples have often been treated badly and it’s tragic. We should do what we can to remedy that. It’s not an easy situation, there are no easy answers or magic erasers.

We shouldn’t throw away our history but instead learn from it and strive to be the best people we can be for ourselves and our countrymen. We do have an identity as a people. When the first European explorers came to western Canada in the Palliser expedition they described it as a barren wasteland with little prospects. We have all worked hard and made it a place others the world over want to immigrate to. Happy Canada day.

Last edited 2 months ago by TheGreatBigMac
Randle McMurphy

You raise a good point.

Its one thing to try and reconcile the past.

But what about the injustices that continue to this very day. Why do we not feel guilt / responsibility for those? In real time.

Without commitment to righting these injustices, apologies about the past seem to ring hollow, no?

OriginalPouzar

Standard stuff – another team makes a trade and Holland should be fired.

Of note, Oilers don’t have a 2nd or 3rd this draft, Arvidson is coming off a down year and is making almost as much as Nuge for the next two years, is a munchkin and hurt a lot.

Elgin R

OP I can’t seem to find where any Oiler fans are beating up Holland over this.

What the Oilers do not need is another Hobbit – and Arvidsson certainly qualifies. Also, huge overpay by Blake.

Old Dutch is doing just fine so far this summer, but the anxiety is almost as unbearable as the heat! Calmly as we can, we wait to see how Holland reshapes this team and I hope it is in the shape of a Stanley Cup.

OriginalPouzar

OP I can’t seem to find where any Oiler fans are beating up Holland over this.

I was at the dog park with the wife and Sky when the news broke – one refresh of twitter and the nation was all over Holland within minutes.

Munny

For the record his cap hit is $4.2 M and despite being short he’s built like a brick shithouse.

defmn

And shoots right.

Munny

Yup yup… and shoots good.

defmn

My comment wasn’t meant as a positive or negative regarding the player so much as to focus on what I think are the Oilers priorities this summer.

I’ll wait to see how Holland fills that LW spot before deciding if he should or could have gone after Arvidsson.

What I find more interesting is what is Nashville thinking.

Munny

I would love a RHS who can actually snipe playing at LW in our top 6. YMMV

defmn

Yeah, I haven’t seen enough of Nashville the last couple years to know if that still describes Arvidsson or not.

What do you think Nashvill is thinking in moving him for so little?

Harpers Hair

A good breakdown of the deal here:

https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2021/07/01/trade-los-angeles-kings-get-viktor-arvidsson-from-nashville-predators-for-draft-picks/

It appears Arvidson is suffering from PDO isuues.

jp

It appears Arvidson is suffering from PDO isuues.

No PDO issues. It’s been over 1010 for 5 seasons.

Worst GF% in that span was 54.7%.

His scoring has fallen off, but good trade by Blake.

Harpers Hair

His shooting percentage dropped to 6% last season.

If he returns to his normal 10%, he should bounce back.

jp

Well he’s dropped to 0.5 points per game for the last 2 years, so a scoring bounce back is possible but uncertain.

He’s still a pretty good player at 0.5 points per game.

Munny

Could be goalie. Could be finances. Could be craving size.

But to tell you the truth, if I’m Poile, I’m probably going into rebuilding mode.

I see no path to the Cup that includes paying Duchene and RyJo that kind of money. …We just signed Duchene for $5.1M.

Harpers Hair

I would imagine Poile is working hard to get Seattle to take Johansen with money retained.

Harpers Hair

Most likely maneuvering ahead of the expansion draft.

I would imagine we’ll see Blake make more deals like this with all that cap space and bulging prospect wallet.

defmn

$15 M left with 20 players signed.

Harpers Hair

Yep…he can still make multiple deals while leaving room for a couple of blue chip prospects to make the team.

I expect he will look for a high end LD to play with Doughty.

Harpers Hair

Blake starts acquiring wingers to play with all those centres especially Kopitar.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, $4.2M, almost as much as Nuge at $5.1M (and a vastly inferior player – even if he’s “solidly built”).

DevilsLettuce

I’ve looked everywhere for these words you say we’re spoken… Where are they?

Harpers Hair

What are you going on about now?

Arvidson is a premier possession player and his acquisition came at the expense of 1 of 2 second round picks LAK had.

Also his cap hit is almost $1 million less than Nuge.

Very smart get for Blake who needs draft picks like a fish needs a bicycle.

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&playerid=8478042&sit=5v5&stype=2

DevilsLettuce

Why are you bringing Nuge into this? Such a pathetic little troll.

Last edited 2 months ago by DevilsLettuce
Munny

Maybe read the post he is replying to.

Randle McMurphy

1 climate change (among other problems) is harming the oceans.
2 carbon-dioxide-caused climate change is partly the result too damn many cars.
3 fish live in oceans
4 bicycles emit no carbon dioxide
5 Ergo: more bikes would be good for fish.

Munny

Lol… Well at least you got #3 right.

godot10

Doesn’t say much for the LA prospect pool. Blake acquires the new Martin Erat.from David Poile.

OriginalPouzar

This is a fine move by LA and Blake.

Arvidson is a fine player and, yes, in isolation, I’d like to have him on the Oilers.

At the same time, he’s within $1M of Nuge and I think the gap in player value is much higher than $1M (Nuge is worth more than $1M in excess of Arvidson) and, while Arvidson is a “strong hobbit”, he is still another hobbit who has been 0.5P/G the last couple of years.

I believe that Yamamoto will be able to do what Arvidson has done the last couple of years and he’ll be around $2M per for the next two years (I would think).

Arvidson would be nice but I’d prefer to spend that $4M on a different player (and not give up the draft capital, which the Oilers don’t even have, or similar).

Rich M

Have watched a lot of Arvidson in person since I live in Nashville.

The last 3 season’s Arvidson has been dealing with one injury after another. He’s lost more than a step, and he struggled under Hynes who demanded he stay in the defensive zone to help get pucks out instead of cheat for offense the way Laviolette allowed.

He may have may have a 20 goal season in him still if he can remain healthy but that’s a challenge. He also has a reputation with officials for embellishment. Overall, I think this is one where Poile did a nice job getting a couple of picks for a depreciating asset.

Little Johnny Frostbite

LT, this was stirring, saddening, and very familiar. Thank you for writing this and capturing how many of us feel right now.

chrisco stu

Happy Canada Day!
I’m in the hospital with my wife and new born son, and my heart is full beyond belief. I am so thankful for all of the men and women who toiled, sacrificed, fought, bled and died to make this country the safe refuge that it is today. Also thank you Lowetide for always providing thoughtful insight I never miss a post.

chrisco stu

Thank you! This is our third go round now so I’ve been sleeping in advance just in case he’s as fussy as the first one!

Randle McMurphy

Congratulations! It doesn’t get any better than that.

chrisco stu

Thanks Randle!

Munny

Word of advice… as tempting as it may be, don’t name him “Canada”.

😉

Congrats to you and Mom!

chrisco stu

Well if you see a right shooting defenseman coming up through the system named Canadarryl you’ll know whose work it was…

Randle McMurphy

Duncan Keiths fancies have dropped precipitously over the past 3 seasons.

He’ll be 38 when the season starts. You’d have to get him for almost no expenditure with salary retained by Chicago.

Randle McMurphy

Chances are Keith’s preference is to come to Edmonton. That gives us the upper hand in negotiations. If we were to get a reasonable deal, It would have to occur after the expansion draft, otherwise he would have to be protected.

From a Chicago point of view, they probably get a better deal from the Flames or Canucks.

Elgin R

With a full NMC, Keith will tell Bowman where he is willing to go and the other GM (s?) will decide what he is willing to give to make it happen – Bowman can then decide to do it or not.

My concern with this player is that both CF%rel and FF%rel are highly negative and the worst they have been in years. And with a buyout proof contract the second year is locked in.

His home town is Winnipeg. Do the Jets have the inside track? Probably the greatest return would be from the Kraken and they will need leaders. My bet is Seattle.

Randle McMurphy

Apparently, he wants to be close to his son in Kelowna. So probably no to Winnipeg.

I think Keith would see the Edmonton as the team closest to contending in proximity to Kelowna

And yes, his fancies are not good.

Drai by Shooting

I don’t have a bet, but i have a hope. And the hope is it’s not Edmonton

godot10

The Oilers should be able to get Keith at a low cost in terms of AAV without retention by Chicago. Chicago just has to take one (or two) of the Oilers bad assets back.

Kassian
Neal
Koskinen
Klefbom LTIR

OriginalPouzar

Given accounts from Klef’s agent that the player is doing absolutely everything he can to resume his NHL career, I don’t put Klef as an option. I can’t stomach Klefbom lining up for the Hawks this coming season with Keith being his replacement on the Oilers.

albertaboundedmonton

Happy Canada Day. I will honour today with a heavy heart. I’m still proud but am thinking about ways to honour those of us who live with the injustices of residential schools.

Elgin R

Always appreciate Wheeler articles and the ‘Gifted’ series are right at the top. These young men are now part of the organization and it is nice to have more than the 1 paragraph draft-day bio on these players.

Savoie reminds me of other Oiler draft picks that have exceptional talent in one or two areas but need time to improve their deficiencies to make the NHL. Most players drafted after the first half of round 1 are developed outside the AHL or NHL for a couple of years (Yamamoto being one exception). Savoie, from all accounts, needs to improve his fitness and learn how to properly play without the puck. So another 2-years in the NCHC then on to the Condors for the 2023-2024 season. Now the young man could surprise and make the Condors for the 2022-2023 season – who knows. Always cheer for Oiler prospects to succeed and doubly so for local guys.

Last edited 2 months ago by Elgin R
OriginalPouzar

Savoie being in the NCAA is an absolute boon for the Oilers and this player’s development.

Excellent facilities and coaching at Denver, a perfect place for this player to work on his “deficiencies” and, from what I saw watching him last year, and the accounts, he’s doing – work ethic, skating, commitment to fitness.

In addition to the NCAA being a great place to develop, it also provides extra time for the Oilers to sign this player – we’ve got, what, 3 more years of rights. They may want to sign him after this coming season but, if for some reason they want one more season of NCAA development, they have that ability (although that would be starting to get a little close for comfort on the UFA status – still would be another year though, I think).

jp

Pretty decent chance the local kid actually wants to play with Connor and Leon in his hometown too, I’d think.

OriginalPouzar

Presumably – I would think the opportunity to play top 6 with McDavid/Drai (up to him to “earn it”) in the town he grew up in would be enticing – not to mention the potential monetary boon if he forms chemistry with one (or both) of those two.

Redbird62

If Carter Savoie has another good to great season in Denver and he decides he really wants to leave to turn pro, the Oilers will sign him. The decision on staying in College or not, again assuming he has shown improvement, will be mostly his and not the Oilers if they continue to value him. If the Oilers didn’t want to sign him, he could probably play in Europe for 2 seasons. The only thing the Oilers control is his North American pro playing rights for 4 seasons so they don’t have a veto on him staying in College as suggested by your last sentence.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, I would assume they will sign him after this season if he progresses as anticipated – was just providing the potential options and timeframe given NCAA vs. CHL.

innercitysmytty

LT thanks for saying what you have. I’m non-Indigenous but have worked closely with Indigenous communities for almost 15 years. The only quibble I would have with what you wrote is you have identified what you think is the path forward, however, it’s important to remember that this is up to the communities and individuals impacted and not us. I have spoken with elders and community leaders that do not feel digging up unmarked graves is what is best for their community. Each and every community is very unique and their path forward will likely be just as unique. Some will feel the best path forward is just what you have said, however, some will not. The important thing for us is to support them in the direction they want to take.

GP Oiler Fan

First off, Happy Canada Day everyone!

LT, I strongly believe that Keith will be coming to Edmonton. There was rumor prior to the trade deadline that he was hoping to move to a contender to finish out his career. Looking at western Canadian teams, I’d honestly place the oilers as the strongest chance to make a run over the next 2 years of his deal.
mid Chicago agrees to retain some of his contract, or he’ll even if they will take Koskinen straight up, I’d do that move.
I think this is Kenny’s replacement for Klefbom short term and would provide the time for Broberg and Samaroukov to bubble under.
I, myself like the idea of him coming. 3 Stanley cups, has taken a dip but still a great second pairing option. Leadership, Norris winner. It’s too good to pass up, plus Ken’s history has shown these exact type of moves with the Red Wings.

Scungilli Slushy

What I know is that 50% Keith at the right cap situation is 100% better than Kulikov for 1-1.5 M less.

He might be done, but as said is supremely conditioned and the context of his numbers are important.

Chicago is currently, despite dispatching the Oilers, is not a good team.

Playing with a solid partner like Larsson behind one of two outstanding centres might make him seem a lot more like how he was.

DieHard

Why aren’t we trading Neal for Keith strait up?

OriginalPouzar

That would be ideal but I don’t see why the Hawks would do that?

I mean, I know they are hoping to do Keith a solid given what he’s meant to the org but that deal increases their cap and reduces the effectiveness.

Doing a solid for Keith likely doesn’t mean hurting the franchise.

jp

Agreed, and it’s not like Keith is valueless, just not value at $5M plus.

jtblack

HAPPY CANADA DAY!.

Thanks for another Great write up.

I believe Holloway will be top 6 this year. Hope KH upgrades the bottom 6 with a Wennberg type and maybe Coleman. 2 Good NHL players will have a major impact on the Top 9. + if Holloway can hold his own, thats 3 players who have added to WAR over last year.

I draft COSSA. after watching Vasy over the last 6 years, it is a risk I am willing to take in Round 1. IF a goalie like Cossa is drafted and hits 2 or 3 years down the road; that is a Game Changer.

OriginalPouzar

Holloway certainly has a chance – there are comparables to his draft plus 1 in the NCAA that were able to be legit top 6 in the NHL in their draft plus 2 years.

From accounts, it sounds like Holloway is penciled in to the AHL to start the year but that doesn’t mean he can’t change the play in September/early October. At the same time, that means the org will (as they should) plan on him not being in that role come the start of the season and will likely be looking for another 2LW – hopefully a stop-gap with short(ish) term in order to ensure there is a path forward and structure the cap future accordingly.

Wennberg, to me, should be a legit 3C stop-gap target. He had a bounce-back year but not so strong that he should command too long a term or too high an AAV. I strong candidate to help provide offense from the 3C spot.