Duncan

by Lowetide

There’s a song by Paul Simon called “Duncan”, it’s a brilliant record just like all of Rhymin’ Simon’s tunes. He tells the story of Lincoln Duncan, who is a young man from the Maritimes, in the first person. He is unable to sleep because of the commotion in the next hotel room (someone is having a better time than Duncan) and then follows him to New England where the big city tears him apart. He receives an education and is grateful in the end, the music meandering to interesting and hummable places.

Duncan came from Simon’s first record and was the third single. There’s a sound (two flutes) that instantly takes you to ‘El Condor Pasa’ from Simon and Garfunkel’s 1970 album Bridge over Troubled Water. If you’ve heard El Condor Pasa by Simon and Garfunkel but not Duncan, I urge you to listen. It’s impossible to avoid the familiarity of the flutes.

Duncan is a later song, the earlier melody a stronger one. The Duncan Oilers fans are talking about today has the same issue: The earlier version is a stronger one.

One more thing: El Condor Pasa means “The Condor Passes” as an homage to the Condor of the Andes. I believe the acquisition of Keith might bring one or more Condor of a different kind into play during 2021-22.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

THE RUMOUR

Kurt Leavins article is here and the names mentioned in the article are Duncan Keith, Mike Smith, Tyson Barrie and Chris Driedger.

What does that tell us? Well, Mike Smith and Chris Driedger are goalies, so that would mean the goalie not mentioned in the article (Mikko Koskinen) could be in play.

Keith is mentioned, but no defensemen going the other way. Makes sense, Chicago likely wants to trade Keith and then protect another roster defender. A defenseman who doesn’t need to be protected (Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov, Evan Bouchard, Markus Niemelainen) could be in play but Broberg is a Holland draft so that’s unlikely.

Edmonton will want to offload cap dollars. Koskinen for Keith seems too easy, so maybe Edmonton throws in a sweetener and Chicago sends back a pick.

That’s my guess. Koskinen and Mike Kesselring for Keith and Chicago’s sixth-round pick.

One final thing: I’ve seen a few people question the quality of the source. I can speak to that a little. I know Kurt, worked with him, know his background. Among the things he has done along the way in a long broadcast career is work the news side. So, that means that whatever happens, he would have nailed this thing down with more than one source.

Deals fall through, Klefbom may announce he’ll be ready for training camp. The Keith discussions with Chicago have taken place and this is an actual thing. I’d bet money on it.

KEITH’S 2020-21 SEASON

So this is five on five and Keith played with the department of youth quite a bit. Ian Mitchell turned 22 in January and has played 39 NHL games. Adam Boqvist will be 21 on August 15, he has played 76 NHL games plus another eight in the playoffs. Wyatt Kalynuk, who is 24, has played in 21 NHL games.

Only Connor Murphy, 28 and a veteran of over 500 NHL games, could be considered a veteran partner.

At five on five, Keith’s on-ice goals for per 60 is 2.39. His on-ice goals against per 60 is 3.10. Holland and Tippett may feel playing with someone like Adam Larsson could help suppress the goals-against when Keith is on the ice.

Some things we can say this morning:

  • This is not out of character for Ken Holland. He views older players as having high value and aggressively pursues them.
  • Keith played in less than ideal circumstances a year ago.
  • Keith is not the player he was even three years ago.
  • If Keith is the primary piece in the deal, Chicago will win the trade unless a big contract like Mikko Koskinen is part of the return. A smaller cap hit heading east, one that allows the ‘Hawks more cap room, would be a fail for Holland.
  • Holland must feel Klefbom isn’t coming back.
  • I’m not sure Caleb Jones is in this deal but it would make sense if Chicago is focused on acquiring his brother Seth Jones.
  • Fans aren’t going to be happy.
  • This is not an analytics move.
  • There are better moves available.

The Nuge signing saved about $1 million in exchange for two years tacked on the end of the deal. I believe that’s a smart move, but only if the savings on the front end is used wisely.

The trade is likely to be a massive loss. The player is likely to land on the third pair. If you’re Dmitri Samorukov or Philip Broberg, this may be good news.

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bmclav

Keith trade:

EDM trades: Turris ($1.7X1), Jones

CHI trades: Keith $2M retained & waive NMC ($3.5MX2), Strome ($3X1), 2021 2nd round pick

Chicago wins the trade as all the risk and salary is on EDM, but it could potentially fill two holes (2LD, and 3C) for the time being. I don’t see Chicago taking back a bad contract but they should be retaining at least $2M from Keith. EDM could still go sign Schwartz for $5MX3, and have around $7M cap left for a goalie at the deadline. Might as well run Koski and smith until then and Koski will be off the books at the end of the season.

2021-2022

Schwartz-Mcdavid-Puljujarvi
Nuge-Drai-Yamo
Holloway-D.Strome-Kassian
Khaira-McLeod-Archibald

Nurse-Bear
Keith-Larsson
Koekkoek-Bouchard

Kuemper (post deadline)
Smith

Dont love it but a goalie add at the deadline would leave a pretty balanced lineup with depth and prospects pushing at all positions (Benson, Lavoie, Broberg, Samorukov)

Last edited 3 months ago by bmclav
who

Again.
Great trade for Oilers.
How do you figure Chicago wins this trade? What risk is Edmonton taking on? 2 years of Keith at 3.5 million? 1 year of Strome at 3 million?
I’d take Keith for 2 years at 3.5 million for 2LD.
And I’ll certainly take Strome at 3 million for 1 year to be Mcdavids scoring winger. I don’t see much risk in either of those scenarios.

€√¥£€^$

I think this transaction is inevitable, but I am wondering how Columbus can be involved to make it a 3 team trade to the Oilers advantage.

I don’t think Chicago will really give up picks to Edmonton, but perhaps they would be willing to give up an unsigned asset and if Columbus could take a contract off of Kenny’s hands, perhaps this would be a favourable trade for our home town team.

To Columbus: Duncan Keith $1.5 million retained
Dylan Strome
Chicago’s 2022 1st Round Pick
James Neal $2 million retained = $3,750,000 per season
Edmonton’s 2021 4th Round Pick
Edmonton’s 2022 3rd Round Pick

To Chicago: Seth Jones
Caleb Jones

To Edmonton: Duncan Keith @ 50% retained = $2,019,231 per season
Rights to Ryder Rolston (entering 2nd yr of NCAA – 2020 5th round pick)
Vegas’s 2021 2nd Round Pick – incentive to move Caleb as an incentive to get Seth to resign + allowing for cap savings (Chicago has 2 2nd rounders and no 3rd rounders). Does Kenny have it in him to drive such a bargain?

Thoughts, questions, queries?

Last edited 3 months ago by €√¥£€^$
who

Great trade.
For the Oilers.
Why would Columbus do this? They give up Seth Jones and 5.75 million in cap space for Dylan Strome and a 1st rounder?
Edmonton gets a 2 million dollar Keith and 3.75 million in cap space for Caleb Jones?
Sure. Sign me up.

DevilsLettuce

Keith, Debrincat, Strome, 97 Bears, Cutlers exercise bike.

Koskinen, Kassian, Jones, Benson, 86 Esks, 2021 Elks

jp

Despite the numbers indicating he’s already passed away, Keith was 24th in the league in TOI this past season. But you probably knew that already 😉

jtblack

” and a Non Descript Defense .”

WEBER
PETRY
EDMUNDSON

All 3 excellent. PETRY was Norris Calibre this season WEBER is Norris Calibre when Healthy. EDMUNDSON great all around

Their D is anything but non descript

pts2pndr

Depends on your budget for Geritol.😉

Reja

Watching Perry with his quick hands and being unafraid to set up shop in front of the net made me think of Ryan Smith. So I look up the career goals of both of them and wouldn’t you know it their both sitting with 386 goals.

leadfarmer

If Keith was a UFA what would people here offer him
2 x 2.5?
Not this 2 x 5.5 bullcrap
Bkackhawks got their cups and should pay for it with cap hell, not us

OriginalPouzar

From accounts that I trust (i.e. Nugent-Bowman), Oilers aren’t willing to deal unless the money all but equals out.

Magnus

There are so many other defencemen I’d rather waste assets/money on. Unless Chicago is willing to take a hit to entertain Keith’s request I would walk away.

OriginalPouzar

and it sounds like the Oilers would do just that – they won’t take on a big cap addition in this transaction (from accounts).

Woogie63

Watching Ross Colton – 4th round, 118 pick of TBY playing his rookie NHL season after two ok years in the AHL. If Colton can fit in on the second line in the SCF, why can’t Benson contribute to the second or third line for the Oilers.

Reja

Because he’s not a Holland pick.

Woogie63

Stevie Y drafted Colton in 2016 and as you know he is playing during the BriseBois tenure.

Reja

Maybe if Benson was in the Tampa organization he would be playing right now. If I’m Benson’s agent I’m pleading for a trade because my window is almost shut.

OriginalPouzar

Maybe if Benson was in the Tampa organization he would be playing right now. If I’m Benson’s agent I’m pleading for a trade because my window is almost shut.

Taylor Raddysh and Boris Katchouk would advise Benson against Tampa.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t know enough about Colton to compare him to Benson but I do think the Benson could potentially play on the 2nd or 3rd line for the Oilers next season and should have a real opportunity to make the team and earn a roster and lineup spot.

Ryan

Don’t worry about Benson. He’s in chapter five of Holland’s playbook…right after chapter 4, find aged defenseman.

Chapter 5 is matriculate players in the AHL until they’re no longer waivers exempt regardless of whether or not they were already ready to play in the NHL.

OriginalPouzar

Similar to BriseBois and Taylor Raddysh and Boris Katchouk….. and Tampa had reasonable and timely access to call-up prospects.

Harpers Hair

This is nonsense.

Look at Tampa’s bottom 6 and compare it to the stiffs on the Oilers roster.

The players you cited can’t make the Lightning roster because it’s stacked.

Reja

It must be hard for Benson doing everything and more to get a call-up yet all you hear about is Broberg.. Broberg….

OriginalPouzar

Broberg? I thought this conversation was about Benson?

The chances of Benson starting the season with the Oilers this season are materially higher than Broberg.

Munny

materially higher

So 1% more? 0.5%?

Using the term “material” as egregiously often and as ungrammatically often as is your wont, doesn’t add any weight to your logic, lol.

jp

Don’t worry about Benson. He’s in chapter five of Holland’s playbook…right after chapter 4, find aged defenseman.

Chapter 5 is matriculate players in the AHL until they’re no longer waivers exempt regardless of whether or not they were already ready to play in the NHL.

Did you read to the end of chapter 5?

If we’re being fair, those matriculated players very often end up becoming important contributors on Holland’s NHL teams.

DevilsLettuce

Also to note In this case it appears that the aged veteran defender is searching for Holland, Not the other way around lol.

jp

Sure, but chapter four is definitely a prominent one in the playbook, I won’t argue that’s not true.

Ryan

Exactly. That’s why I said not to worry about Benson. Somehow my comment was construed as negative.

The only thing Benson now lacks is a really cool last name like Abdelkader.

Holland values the players he overripens in the minors.

Redbird62

He didn’t draft Bear, Jones, Yamamoto, McLeod, or Lagesson and all are getting a fair shake from him even though all were drafted before he got here. And he was pretty emphatic in his recent interviews that its extremely important that Bouchard plays with the Oilers this coming season.

jp

Ah ok, makes sense. 👍

Last edited 3 months ago by jp
fistycuff

If getting Duncan is what it takes so that the Oilers don’t sign Kulikov…then do it. Anything…just don’t sign Kulikov as your second pairing.

flyfish1168

Probably has to be a three-way deal to make the Keith deal work

N64

If Holland is signing Larsson I think the Keith dangling is the I will, and I choose… what in the world can that be? stage of the negotiation

@ReidWilkins·Jun 29
Holland says he’d like to re-sign Adam Larsson. Says Larsson is going through a process to decide what he wants to do.

Last edited 3 months ago by N64
Yegfoundation

Jones wants out and Larson is not currently willing to resign. Not a good look at the moment on the backend.

Harpers Hair

It’s entirely possible the 8 year term handed to Nuge has had an effect on the Larsson negotiations.

Both are 28 years old and Larsson’s camp could easily argue he’s just as important to team success.

Perhaps the news that Larsson is now balking at signing came right after the RNH deal was announced is not a coincidence.

DevilsLettuce

Larsson sees a better player sign for below expected market value.

Immediately expects more term and money, ooooooook then.

Unfortunately the Oilers will be armed with data telling them Adam’s player type doesn’t age near the same as Nuge’s players type, he can take his 3×3 or walk.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t believe that Larsson isn’t willing to re-sign – progress has been made and the sides are set to talk this coming week (from accounts).

Alot more positive than it was with Nuge a week ago….

defmn

It’s rumour month in the NHL.

Everything we hear has a smidge of truth mixed in with supposition & creative writing. It’s fun to discuss but experience tells us that only about 5% ever happens the way we first hear about it.

LostBoy

WTF is a “legacy player” and why is that suddenly a consideration in an NHL trade? We’re supposed to pay something we wouldn’t otherwse for what Keith has meant to Chicago? Or something?

This is not a trade concept I’m familiar with.

leadfarmer

It’s a player you are trying to send to Robidas island but you ran out of known skin conditions

jp

t’s a player you are trying to send to Robidas island but you ran out of known skin conditions

I think the JFresh player cards and WAR rankings are worthless.

Recall Seth Jones was his actual worst defenseman in the NHL this past season.

Harpers Hair

Multiple cups, Norris Trophy wins and all star selections would qualify as a legacy.

pts2pndr

Which would only be meaningful in Chicago and or Vancouver for hang in the rafters jersey decoration!

Victoria Oil

Overpaying – by salary and/or acquisition cost – for what someone has done in the past, rather than what they will likely do in the future has been the downfall of many GM’s.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– “Remember that one time, I got an old D, 20 years ago, and he helped. Let’s do that. I’ll just wander down to his place in the Valley, and get ‘er done. ”

– Good teams try to dump salaries to improve. Bad teams faciliate this for those teams.

– Why aren’t we the ones trying to unite the Jones brothers, or taking a run at Hamilton

– If Klef isn’t playing next year, need to aim much higher than Keith FFS to improve

*: Keith @ $2.5MM is OK. Not to faciliate them getting better D.

Harpers Hair

Colorado is likely to lose Ryan Graves in the expansion draft.

While Colorado can replace him in the lineup with Bowen Byram I’m sure they would rather get an asset for Graves rather than lose him for nothing.

There should be a deal there.

TheGreatBigMac

Colorado is going to loose a good player no matter what. Trading likely won’t help them much. But they may be open to a fair value trade for Graves.

Last edited 3 months ago by TheGreatBigMac
Harpers Hair

Yes they will..but trading Graves lets them protect an additional forward.

jp

I still think the best play for them is to protect Graves and expose the extra forwards (this assuming Johnson waives his NMC, if he doesn’t they need to protect 4D AND expose/trade Graves).

leadfarmer

So supposedly we want Chicago to retain cap or take back a bad contract but they don’t want to because he’s a legacy player
well hope we move on then

OriginalPouzar

Ya, the angle that they won’t give him away because he’s a legacy player doesn’t jive with reality. James Neal has a legacy of a 40 goal scorer.

Thankfully, the same piece says the Oilers won’t make the move unless they can at least equal the cap out. Holland “grinded” for months to shave $1M off of Nuge’s cap – I don’t think he’s going to turn around and acquire Keith and his cap without disposing of the same (bad cap out).

Harpers Hair

One of these is not like the other.

Keith will be a HHOF player.

Neal not so much.

OriginalPouzar

Which has nothing to do with the point.

Harpers Hair

Then why did you draw the comparison with Neal?

DevilsLettuce

James Neal has a legacy of 40 goals, with multiple 20 goal seasons. The Oilers can expect a 1st round pick and prospect by the Hawks definition of legacy condition for Keith.

pts2pndr

Which means absolutely nothing to any team other than Chicago and maybe Vancouver.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Another thing about looking at these numbers year over year is the primary defensive partner may change, goalies can change, coaching personnel and systems might vary, etc.

I’d wager the team situation is important context to consider when parsing these stats.

defmn

In all of the Nuge signing and the Keith rumours did we miss this very important piece of information for Oiler fans? 😉

This got caught by the spam filter when I posted it earlier so I’ll try again.

Jun 29
Earlier today @DhaliwalSports mentioned Brogan Rafferty’s time with the Canucks might be coming to an end. Dhali asked
@CraigJButton about Brogan earlier today. Full interview.. https://tinyurl.com/5evrb5r2

Harpers Hair

Brilliant stars burn the hottest and flame out early.

defmn

Hehe. Or as I like to tell people in explaining my unwillingness to grow up – “is is a law of nature that the strongest growths mature the slowest.” 😉

Side

Is this a botched Blade Runner quote?

Harpers Hair

No.

Stephen Hawkings cousin Binky is most often credited with this quote.

pts2pndr

So you were a brilliant star. First part only in your mother’s eyes however you do fit the second part!

DevilsLettuce

Guessing Rick and Danny are not fans of 43 year old rookies.

jp

This is his final year of Calder eligibility, I believe.

DevilsLettuce

Maybe Colorado will pick him up, slide in for Graves.

Gerta Rauss

Nugent Bowman with an update on Keith over at the Athletic about an hour ago

It covers a lot of ground- the same ground that has been trodden on here the last 24 hours.

So there’s not much new, but there is a couple of nuggets in there for those with a subscription

https://theathletic.com/2687144/2021/07/02/source-oilers-are-interested-in-trading-for-blackhawks-defenceman-duncan-keith-at-a-price/

Last edited 3 months ago by Gerta Rauss
OriginalPouzar

Yup, its a must-read – the nuggets are material nuggets dealing with acquisition cost and cap structuring matters.

defmn

In all of the Nuge signing and the Keith rumours did we miss this very important piece of information for Oiler fans? 😉

Donnie & Dhali
@DonnieandDhali
·
Jun 29
Earlier today @DhaliwalSports mentioned Brogan Rafferty’s time with the #Canuckcomment image might be coming to an end. Dhali asked
@CraigJButton about Brogan earlier today. Full interview.. https://tinyurl.com/5evrb5r2

Harpers Hair

After 2 trips around the sun.

Funny Bissonness
Last edited 3 months ago by Funny Bissonness
Scungilli Slushy

Hockey out of all the NA sports is the least able to be dominated by a single player.

Football has the QB, Basketball it’s dominant players that can switch teams and make them champions, baseball by pitchers and Vladi.

There are multiple stats around, few have been proven to tell a consistent story, year over year, much more than the basic old school stats.

Kudos to those that try to develop new stats, the bottom line is that there aren’t enough inputs. And if they come it will be a rat’s nest to suss out. The game is just so fluid.

So referring to Nuge, the stats from a player on a defence first team are probably going to look better.

We’ve seen this a millionnnnnn times from players moving on from the Oilers.

Take any player you love and shave some points off of them if they’re coming to our team, until our team gets over the hump of big time breakdowns on a consistent basis.

koskidaddy

Ethan Bear had a bad GA/60 in 19-20, but his xGA/60 was 2.74. His GA/60 should’ve been better than 3.20, but it wasn’t due to bad goaltending when he was on the ice. Improvement this season can be explained by better goaltending, and actual improvement (rookie to sophomore year)

On the other hand when Keith put up a 3.10 GA/60 this season, his xGA/60 was 3.08. Goaltending was average when he was on the ice, and I don’t expect it to get any better. In fact, it probably gets worse due to age.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I find it interesting that nobody has broached the impetus for the trade request.

According to Strudwick, Keith has just gone through a divorce and wants to be closer to home in the Okanagan. Makes it easier to visit his child. That’s why his request is centred around the PNW and Western Canadian teams.

If you add in the other bit about him preferring a team with a chance to make some noise in the playoffs, there isn’t a better framework than what’s in good ol’ our town.

That’s a good pair of levers for Kenny to handle this trade with, if indeed true.

Last edited 3 months ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
OriginalPouzar

Joel Eriksson Ek just got the Nuge contracts – he’s younger but inferior.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Arguable. Eriksson Ek does almost all his production at evens and his relative goal shares are trending nicely. Given his age, that’s a better contract than Nuge just got.

Randle McMurphy

They are similar in one fashion, both Centers who cant win faceoffs.

Ek’s Sh% this year more than doubled his avg Sh% of the last 3 seasons.

Given a choice between the 2 contracts, which one would you guys take for your team?

Last edited 3 months ago by Randle McMurphy
Redbird62

Over the past 3 season, Nuge has scored 165 points to EKs 73. Yes he gets a lot of PP points, but he is on the PP because he is damn good at it. And its not like Ek is some up and comer, he is 24 and a half drafted 6 seasons ago. He may still have some upside, but I bet Nuge significantly out performs him for the next 4 to 5 year at least. The bet on Nuge’s contract is that its an underpay on AAV for the first several years, with a risk of an overpay for the back end seasons. Any team that wants to have top level veterans has to take that risk, because that’s the market for them. Most Stanley Cup winning teams have several UFA aged players on long term deals that come with a back end risk.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Worth considering JEE’s role over the past 3 years has also largely been more of a shutdown role. He gained footing in the top-6 thanks to Staal’s departure. This isn’t to say I think he’s objectively better, just that it’s not as clear cut that he’s inferior as OP suggested.

Due to his age and the role he seems to be growing into (outscoring defensive C), I also maintain that he’s likely to be better value for his contract.

koskidaddy

Joel Eriksson Ek is better than Nuge, especially defensively. His on-ice defensive stats are very good.

He got a better contract, but it’s because he was an RFA.

OriginalPouzar

Sorry, can’t agree that he’s a more valuable player based off of defensive stats (which we know have a ton of noise in them).

Harpers Hair

Of course he’s much better than Griffin Reinhart.

Bill Clinternet

Seth is that you? Keep your aggressively pompous opinions on one of your many Twitter accounts

Randle McMurphy

The Blackhawks are a cap constrained team. With $75m already allocated for 2021-22 and 5 valued RFA’s yet to sign.

Somethings got to give. They are reportedly interested in going after either Seth Jones or Dougie Hamilton now, this offseason.

No way they can afford to take a bad ( Neal / Koskinen) contract back in the Keith move.

So that means, either they’re trying to get Holland to take Keith (with perhaps a small amount retained ($1.25m retained)

or, they could be trying for a win/win/win for themselves by moving both Keith and Dylan Strome for a low cost contract like Caleb Jones.

IF they offered Keith with $1m retained and Strome with $1m retained, and took Caleb Jones, they would effectively remove more than $6.5m from their cap.

I’m not condoning such a move, just coming at it from a Blackhawks point of view.

Randle McMurphy

I agree with Diablo (and others) Holland should just pass if the terms of a deal aren’t weighted in his favour.

Last edited 3 months ago by Randle McMurphy
Scungilli Slushy

There is a lot of sense in this.

If the Blackhawks are that strapped and amenable, you do this.

I think there has to be another asset/s going back.

Maybe a 2022 second, Marody.

Strome is the LW needed, the Oilers for once can use cap to scrape a distressed team.

Or he can be the 3C.

They do still need at least one RHC that can win faceoffs.

I would trade Khaira to open that space. McLeod has far more upside and I think has stolen JJ’s lunch money.

Or, in a move to make Godot suspiciously happy, keep Khaira and trade Kassian.

I do think they still need one hockey able heavy in the F group.

Nurse is too valuable to fight much now.

Last edited 3 months ago by Scungilli Slushy
Bling

Bear was playing first pairing minutes in his first season as a full-time NHLer. We would expect some improvement from a first year player who was thrust into a difficult role. Also, how much of the role reduction was Tyson Barrie being brought in to replace Klefbom? That bumped Bear down, but in limited minutes Nurse-Bear outperformed Nurse-Barrie.

Meanwhile, Keith is near the end of his career and has declined for multiple consecutive seasons. If your argument is Keith could thrive in a third pairing role, I would say fine, but my counter to that is why do you need a third pairing LHD who is bad at killing penalties?

OriginalPouzar

Would the premise of a Duncan Keith acquisition by the Oilers not be to swap bad cap out with bad cap in but the bad cap in at a position where the player may be able to help?

I mean, Neal for Keith to me makes perfect sense from the Oilers’ standpoint. Neal has not use on the Oilers but Keith could potentially be useful. In fact, I think he probably would be notwithstanding his numbers in Chicago.

The only “negative” for the Oilers, is losing the ability to buyout for savings but that isn’t an ideal situation in any event.

I don’t see why the Hawks would make this move except in the name of buying Neal out themselves.

I wouldn’t give up anything of value to get Keith (without something else back) but, straight up for another cap dump that matches the term, I’d be OK with it.

If Keith is terrible this season, he may very well just retire after its over given $1.5M comp next season. The only issue there is that would screw the Hawks with a re-capture and he may not want to do that to them.

RonnieB

Just trying to look at the financial aspects from an Oiler viewpoint…
Trading Neal straight up for Keith would result in a Cap savings of ~$216,000/year.
Buying out Neal would result in a Cap saving of ~$3,833,000/year; a net difference of ~$3,617,000.
If Keith were a UFA would we buy out Neal and give Keith a 2-year contract at $3.617 AAV?

Last edited 3 months ago by RonnieB
OriginalPouzar

Just trying to look at the financial aspects from an Oiler viewpoint…

Trading Neal straight up for Keith would result in a Cap savings of ~$216,000/year.

Buying out Neal would result in a Cap saving of ~$3,833,000/year; a net difference of ~$3,617,000.

If Keith were a UFA would we buy out Neal and give Keith a 2-year contract at $3.617 AAV?

No, I wouldn’t but that’s not how I look at it.

Saving the buyout, and the $2M cap hit in years 3 and 4 is meaningful.

I think Keith can help this team more than Neal. Keith can still skate and his take home pay isn’t very much (so he’s motivated to still play and compete or else he’s retired) and I think he’ll provide more benefit on a competitive team.

Of course, a “better player” can be acquired with a buyout and using that cap space but, again, saving those two dead years is meaningful.

Also, if Keith is awful in year 1 and can’t help the team, I reckon with only $1.5M owed in 2022/23, he may just retire.

RonnieB

That point of view is valid, and I can respect it. However, I differ on the analysis. I view the $3.617 as an Opportunity Cost on the Oilers for 2 years and Keith as potentially a block against the advancement of Samorukov or Broberg or Jones. That’s space that could be used to sign a good 3C in free agency while filling the LHD spot with a Koekekk or a Kulikov or a Murray, etc. Otherwise, that is space that could be needed to sign Nurse, Yamamoto, Bear, a #1 goalie, etc. There is also the fault that the trade opens that amount of Cap space for a rival (assuming they buy out Neal), space that might be used to outbid you for the services of a player you desire. I see the Y3 and Y4 cost of the buyout as something you have 2 full years to plan for.

Reja

You’ve obviously never been cleaned out, I mean divorced. No way in hell is Keith not getting every cent he’s entitled to from his contract.

Harpers Hair

His child support payments would likely make your eyes water.

jtblack

$60k / mth.

Pocket change

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Level-headed assessment that considers the context in which the numbers took place. Good take!

Diablo

Holland should just pass if the terms of a deal aren’t weighted in his favour.

If Keith decides to retire, instead of continue on in the tire-fire happening in that organization, than the Hawks will be left with over 5 million in re-capture penalties.

Rondo

Blackhawks’ Duncan Keith Should Be on Edmonton Oilers Trade Radar

https://thehockeywriters.com/duncan-keith-trade-would-fit-for-edmonton-oilers/

Magnus

Obviously Holland has moved from chasing a declining, over-paid defenceman in Ekman-Larsson to chasing an old, declining, over-paid defenceman in Keith. What’s the opposite of progress?

In all seriousness though, Holland holds ALL the cards in this potential transaction. Anything less than a clear win is a huge fail.

Last edited 3 months ago by Magnus
Bling

I don’t think this information helps you make a decision on Keith.

Other metrics (not just goal share) show Keith to be in decline. Check out his WAR card circulating on twitter. He is very weak defensively at the moment. There is little evidence that he can succeed in a top 4 role.

The other issue is that he is 38 and will certainly drop off further within the next two seasons.

There is also the opportunity cost involved; other avenues of cutting cap space are available, and there are D available who are better than Keith. Kulikov, to name one example, was a much better defensive player than Keith last season.

PP:

Keith played 2:18/game on the powerplay last season. He is unlikely to play on the powerplay in Edmonton.

PK:

In five of the past six seasons, Keith has had a GA/60 of greater than 8. This past season, as leadfarmer pointed out below, it was greater than 10. Only 12 of 142 D who had greater than 50 minutes on the PK had GA/60 rate greater than 10. Overall, Keith was 134/142.

As a second pairing D, Keith is a big risk. As a third pairing D who won’t play on the powerplay and can’t penalty kill very well, you may as well go with Jones or Samorukov.

Ryan

If Stauffer’s correct. It certainly sounds like a Neal deal is out of the question. If they won’t even take Mikko, then no way should we trade for Keith.

koskidaddy

Duncan Keith among Chicago defensemen:

GF%: 7th
xGF%: 7th
CF%: 6th
SCF%: 5th
HDCF: 7th
HDGF%: 9th
Offensive zone starts: 1st (by a mile)
Defensive zone starts: 4th
TOI% against elite competition: 5th

I’m not buying the “bad team” excuse.

Last edited 3 months ago by koskidaddy
Ryan

Zadorov was #4 in toi/g at evens on Colorado in his last season there.
Colorado’s d was above average then (this was before Toews)

5v5: 15:21 (4rth)
4v5: 1:41 (4rth)
total: 17:46 (5th)

With Chicago

(5v5)

Zadorov 16:58 (3rd)
Keith 17:12 (2nd)

(4v5)

Zadorov 1:39 (4rth)
Keith 2:28 (2nd)

Total

Zadorov 19:12 (3rd)
Keith 23:21 (1st)

Collitin rated him better than basically Colorado’s #4/5 defenseman from the season prior.

That puts him between Graves and Zadorov.

Depending on age related decline, Keith could certainly still be a top four d on the Oilers next season.

Now if Holland is paying with assets and not sending bad salary way, that would be an unmitigated disaster.

Moonlight

Stauffer hinting that Chicago is not taking significant salary back, we are going to get hosed on this trade.

if it happens before the expansion draft, Keith will need to be protected.

So let Barrie (who can still play) walk and then spend that money on a defenseman who’s finished AND has 2 years left with a full MNC

This is not a move that teams that want to win make.

LMHF#1

Why would anyone believe Stauffer?

He’s constantly peddling nonsense and trying to move expectations down so when something not horrible happens, people celebrate.

godot10

Is a Koskinen buyout by Chicago significant salary?

Keith, 2 years $5 millionish per.
Koskinen buyout 2 years $1.5 millionish.

RonnieB

Keith buyout is just $600,000 x 4 years. Cap hit on his buyout is $>$4 million in Y1 and >$4.6 in Y2.

Randle McMurphy

“The Condor Passes” is nice piece of work.

My favorite line from an LT post this year:

EDM MTL FEB 11 2021

“Lagesson hammered the post so hard in the third period Charlie Watts woke up immediately and started playing Honky Tonk Women.” 

🙂 🙂 🙂

More cowbell !

Last edited 3 months ago by Randle McMurphy
Reja

Mötley Crüe

YKOil

Hrmmm… without getting too insulting to Chicago (i.e. a deal they would never take regardless), and understanding that:

– Chicago wants salary space for Jones,
– Chicago doesn’t REALLY need that space until next year (when Jones needs a new contract)

The trade would have to start here:

Koskinen ($4.5 x1)
FOR
Keith ($5.54m x2 / $1m retained and waiver of NMC for expansion draft)

Cap and salary is a saw-off for this year and Chicago is clear $4.54m next year.

OR

Neal ($5.75m x2)
FOR
Keith ($5.54m x2 and waiver of NMC for expansion draft)

Chicago would be buy-out Neal in this scenario and is clear $3.64m for this year and next.
Chicago could also keep him for one more year and then buy-out in the Jones year.

BUT

This does nothing for next year for the Oilers and so the question becomes WHAT comes to the Oilers to make this work.

– There are better UFA choices out there.
– If Klefbom does come back the team is now screwed Cap-wise

I don’t really see the value in a 2nd round pick because the team needs to get better now. Dylan Strome didn’t have a great year so maybe its a bigger deal? Even there though, Strome QO is a hefty $4m+ next year and a year with McDavid could turn into a monster deal. But, that said:

Koskinen ($4.5 x1), Turris ($1.65 x1), Jones
FOR
Keith ($5.54m x2 / $1m retained and waiver of NMC for expansion draft), Strome ($3m x1), and 2022 3rd round pick

Does that work? All of Chicago’s issues disappear after 1 year and they get Jones squared while Edmonton is still stuck with a 2nd year of Keith but gets their LW for 2021-2022.

Or is this where we really see where Holland has a weak spot? He likes his veterans and Chicago may have found the one GM who would still place some sort of premium on Keith.

All the risk could end up on the Oilers here. Scary stuff for this fan.

Randle McMurphy

I think your first proposal is innovative and might get it done.

Koskinen ($4.5 x1)
FOR
Keith ($5.54m x2 / $1m retained and waiver of NMC for expansion draft)
Cap and salary is a saw-off for this year and Chicago is clear $4.54m next year.

Randle McMurphy

The more I think about it, Seattle is highly unlikely to take Keith in expansion as one of their stated goals is financial flexibility.

So we could make the trade for Koskinen using the logic you stated, and not worry about losing Keith to Seattle.

Leaving Keith unprotected carries no risk. If Seattle did pick him from us, it would equate to them taking Koskinen off of our hands for free.

We could sign and protect Larsson before the expansion draft and sign a goalie in FA.

Last edited 3 months ago by Randle McMurphy
YKOil

Certainly a key piece of the deal has to be Keith waiving his NMC for purposes of the expansion draft at the very least. Seattle won’t pick him, but they won’t be able to pick who the Oiler’s protect instead of him.

RonnieB

This gets rid of Koskinen, but effectively uses his Cap space on a 38-year-old declining D. Where do you find the $$ to replace Koskinen?
Why should the Oilers be willing to lose a trade in order to benefit a rival for a playoff spot? The Oilers are losing Cap space in Y2 by the same amount Chicago is gaining!

koskidaddy

Stauffer said that the Blackhawks are not looking for any additional salary back – they want a pick/prospect.

This could be a disaster

Munny

This is called negotiating.

OriginalPouzar

and Friedman said the opposite.

flyfish1168

That is 1st round of the ask by the Hawks. You know that will not fly

Now tell us what the Oilers side of the ask?
A ) Neal straight up.
B ) Koistinen and 20% salary retained on Keith by the Hawks

Both options include Jones going the other way and we get their 3rd round pick.

jp

Strome QO is a hefty $4m+ next year and a year with McDavid could turn into a monster deal.

Strome’s QO is $3.6M, I believe.

Bohologo

LT writes, “it’s a brilliant record just like all of Rhymin’ Simon’s tunes,” which may be the case, but the man did steal The Myth of Fingerprints. Here is the story:

After a few days of uncomfortable interaction, Berlin says that David Hidalgo began playing what would become ‘The Myth of Fingerprints,’ a track they were preparing for their next record.

He explains, “We’d been waiting around for two days for Paul to come up with something, but he had nothing. So to have something to do, we just started playing what we thought was our song, when Paul suddenly says, ‘Hey that’s cool. What is that?’ and we said, ‘Oh, it’s a song we’ve been working on.'”

Berlin says Simon asked if they could work on it, and the band agreed thinking that it would help get the sessions over quicker. However, Los Lobos were definitely surprised when Simon’s album came out six months later with credits that read “Words and Music by Paul Simon.”
Berlin says attempts to find out why they weren’t credited were met with silence until Simon contacted the band and said, “Sue me. See what happens.”

Read More: Los Lobos’ Steve Berlin Labels Paul Simon a ‘Jerk,’ Alleges ‘Graceland’ Snub | https://ultimateclassicrock.com/los-lobos-steve-berlin-labels-paul-simon-a-jerk-alleges-graceland-snub/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral

Bohologo

Apologies, buck already posted on this and I can’t delete! Next time I will read first and post second. Mea culpa!

Munny

why can’t you delete?

Bohologo

Looks like there is some kind of time out.

Or Paul Simon hacked my profile. That might be it. Guy is a jerk.

buck yoakam

no problems dude!…read the one about lennon and simon…gotta love that dry british sense of humour…the lobos thing is just the tip of the perverbial iceberg…man it takes a lot of arrogance to put your name on someone else work…like I said zero respect

winchester

This potential trade changes depending on how you frame it.

If Holland goes in search of Kieth……or Holland is in search of a way to move Koskinen and Kieth pops up.

For me, I stated earlier there is no way Koskinen plays for the Oil next year. They will do whatever it takes.

Neal is getting bought out.

With this plan in mind the target starts to make sense.

Scungilli Slushy

The only value the Hawks need in dispatching Keith is cap space and a protected slot for a younger D. Add to that there are only 3-4 teams possible.

If it is going to happen, the Oilers have to draw back some value from the bazillion lost deals. Bowman is over a barrel, the Oiler GM has the hammer, for once.

As part of a larger deal that plugs another hole Holland has to fill, then yes some assets.

Litke 94

Rick Dhaliwal: “Everyone I am talking to believes Duncan Keith will be heading to Edmonton.””

Litke 94

Small little article about Keith this morning, from Chicago beatwriter: https://theathletic.com/2686203/2021/07/02/could-duncan-keith-be-traded-what-im-hearing-about-the-blackhawks-offseason/

Oilers are the only team mentioned by the source. Also mentioned that they, “have the assets to do it.”

Moonlight

Yikes!!! There is no way that this works positively for us.

defmn

It seems we can at last put to rest the speculation that this is Bowman trying to dump Keith’s contract.

Craig Custance
@CraigCustance
·
3h
“It was initiated by Duncan.” Intel from
@ByScottPowers
on Duncan Keith’s future:

Harpers Hair

But, not coincidently, Chicago is thought to be a leading contender for acquiring Seth Jones.

defmn

A lot of moving parts and possibilities being speculated upon.

A new agent for Keith based in Edmonton, same agent as a UFA goalie the Oilers might be interested in, Seth and Caleb as brothers, I think I read somewhere Caleb wants to play in the U.S., Klef’s health, Black Hawks are in LTIR no matter what, Oilers have contracts they don’t want, Sammy is going to push for 3LD at TC.

A perfect early July rumour fest. 😉

Munny

Your tongue is planted firmly in your cheek, right?

defmn

Pretty much always. 😉

godot10

Koskinen, Jones, and Klefbom for Keith and Strome. #DreamBigger

LMHF#1

Something like this makes a lot of sense.

Harpers Hair

This would cause OP to have a seizure at least 731 times.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

I think someone else proposed the idea the other day, but I think I like the idea of a Koskinen (50% retained) for Keith (50% retained) deal under the pretense that Chicago buys out Koski.

EDM: Keith for 2.7mil for 2 years and 750k from Koskinen buyout (3.45mil x 2)
CHI: Koskinen buyout for 750k and 2.7mil from cap withheld on Keith (3.45mil x 2)

Both teams save some cap this year and one potentially fills a need while the other accommodates a franchise hero’s wish.

jp

I’ve been suggesting 50% retained on each to even out the year 2 dollars. Not the buyout part, though that would work too. I’d figured the Hawks would just put Koskinen in net (one of their current crappy goalies is a Fin too).

jeetz

As a second pairing 16-18 minutes a game d-man for 3 mil per… all day long

While we are at it, sign D.Hamilton

Nurse Hamilton
Keith Larsson
XXX Bouchard

maudite

Duncan Keith for James neal straight up or max a 3rd round pick going to Blackhawks..

Opens a protected slot for Chicago gives us a 2-3 pairing LD to fill gap.

Only “deal” I can see that might make sense this way.

Munny

If this trade actually does come to fruition, I highly doubt it will be a loss for the Oilers.

We have Bowman over a barrel. We don’t have to make a trade. Keith also has a firm grip on Bowman’s nuts.

Is Keith willing to waive and be exposed to expansion? Or is he insistent on the Oil?

If it is the first, no deal will get done because the best option for Bowman is to lose him for nothing. If it is the latter, well then we should be able to squeeze some advantage out of this.

What we should not do is pay Chicago for taking Keith off their hands and everything will work out fine.

Last edited 3 months ago by Munny
dustrock

“Desperate to sell? Advantage…. Burns.”

Foege Foegele Torpe

“Vhat a coincidence”

N64

If Oil can sign Larsson Hawks can’t pay enough to get Oil to help out and odds are Keith is still out there after the expansion draft.

If Oil can’t sign Larsson Hawks and Keith won’t waive for the draft all the leverage is still with the Oil with Bowman’s main non-salary gain being the extra D he can protect.

Last edited 3 months ago by N64
Munny

Yeah, I think it would take some level of incompetence, given the circumstances, for the Oilers to come out of this poorly.

If a deal is certain to get done, something we don’t want should be going the other way.

And if Bowman’s goal is Jones, Strome should immediately be part of the conversation.

jp

Dylan Strome is clearly a more valuable asset than Caleb Jones though, no?

Munny

Which helps balance the negative value we ate on Keith.

How as Oiler GM can you accept a request for Jones without asking for more back than Keith’s old age pension?

jp

I guess it depends (as always) how you value Keith (and Jones).

If Chicago retains 50% (or takes Koskinen with 50% retained on each player) the I don’t there’s much/any negative value. I *think* Keith can still play 2nd pair.

If you then add Jones/Strome in, the value is skewed back in the Oilers favor, IMO.

More generally, I’m a bit amazed that a lot of folks are suggesting the return should be Neal only, meaning that Keith has basically zero value at all.

Munny

Keep in mind that I’m talking about the beginning of a conversation, not the end of it. Bowman says, “Jones”… the next word out of Holly’s mouth should be “Strome”.

jp

Yeah that’s definitely fair. Could be a nice get if Holland can find a way to swing it.

JimmyV1965

I’m not going to comment too much on Keith as a player. His numbers clearly show a declining dman. I just want to remind people that Schmidt looked like an all star on a good Vegas team and not so much on a bad Canucks team. If you acquire the player in some kind of cap neutral deal, his playoff and league experience will have value to this team. He knows how to win. What I’m confident about is he won’t make unforced errors like Kulikov. Having said all that, I would avoid the player. 

who

So many opinions on the potential Keith trade. Why don’t we wait and see what the actual deal looks like, if there is a deal, before we pass judgment?
My only comment would be that whatever happens has to happen after the expansion draft. No way the Oilers want to be forced into protecting Keith.

PennersPancakes

People want to be angry at something. Think of last season where some random journalists were talking about Bouchard for OEL and fans came in here saying how much of an idiot Holland was for doing that trade. Although it never happened and was never actually reported to be offered by Holland.

Its fine to be skeptical of deals but these fans arent comfortable unless those panties are twisted.

Dac189

Would be pretty great to trade Neal+Jones for Keith and have him selected by Seattle. More likely the trade happens after the draft though, if it happens.

Randle McMurphy

Coincidence that Keith recently changed agents, from Ross Gurney at R.W.G. Sports management to Edmonton’s Gerry Johansson of The Sports Corporation.

AND reports leak that the Larsson contract talks have stalled this week.

Too much coincidence for me.

Maybe the Oilers couldn’t afford to take a chance on RNH getting to Free Agency, but would take that minimal risk with Larsson to make the deal with Chicago work.

Larsson 4 x $3.25m before July 28th

Larsson 4 x $3.5m after July 28th.

That’s a million dollars Larsson earns over the term of his contract, for doing nothing really.

Last edited 3 months ago by Randle McMurphy
Gerta Rauss

I’d be fine if EDM left Keith unprotected and SEA selected him

The other moving parts would have to be considered of course, but trading a big contract to CHI (Koskinen, Neal), and then the Keith contract lost to the SEA expansion..?…sign me up

*edit- I overlooked that Keith has a NMC so that complicates thing, but my point still stands, although if Keith waives his NMC I’m not sure why CHI just lets him go in the first place

Last edited 3 months ago by Gerta Rauss
Randle McMurphy

Dearest Gerta, your retort was pure genius. Your intelligence is surpassed only by your discretion. If you are ever anywhere near Zihuatanejo you should look me up.

Bag of Pucks

Love the skill in this Euro footie but my North American brain can’t tolerate the sight of players writhing on the ground after something akin to jostling for position on the faceoff.

#BeAMan

leadfarmer

And if you think well Keith has veteran leadership so he can kill pks His pk GA/60 is over 10 last season which is approaching Turris territory.