There’s a song by Paul Simon called “Duncan”, it’s a brilliant record just like all of Rhymin’ Simon’s tunes. He tells the story of Lincoln Duncan, who is a young man from the Maritimes, in the first person. He is unable to sleep because of the commotion in the next hotel room (someone is having a better time than Duncan) and then follows him to New England where the big city tears him apart. He receives an education and is grateful in the end, the music meandering to interesting and hummable places.
Duncan came from Simon’s first record and was the third single. There’s a sound (two flutes) that instantly takes you to ‘El Condor Pasa’ from Simon and Garfunkel’s 1970 album Bridge over Troubled Water. If you’ve heard El Condor Pasa by Simon and Garfunkel but not Duncan, I urge you to listen. It’s impossible to avoid the familiarity of the flutes.
Duncan is a later song, the earlier melody a stronger one. The Duncan Oilers fans are talking about today has the same issue: The earlier version is a stronger one.
One more thing: El Condor Pasa means “The Condor Passes” as an homage to the Condor of the Andes. I believe the acquisition of Keith might bring one or more Condor of a different kind into play during 2021-22.
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
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Kurt Leavins article is here and the names mentioned in the article are Duncan Keith, Mike Smith, Tyson Barrie and Chris Driedger.
What does that tell us? Well, Mike Smith and Chris Driedger are goalies, so that would mean the goalie not mentioned in the article (Mikko Koskinen) could be in play.
Keith is mentioned, but no defensemen going the other way. Makes sense, Chicago likely wants to trade Keith and then protect another roster defender. A defenseman who doesn’t need to be protected (Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov, Evan Bouchard, Markus Niemelainen) could be in play but Broberg is a Holland draft so that’s unlikely.
Edmonton will want to offload cap dollars. Koskinen for Keith seems too easy, so maybe Edmonton throws in a sweetener and Chicago sends back a pick.
That’s my guess. Koskinen and Mike Kesselring for Keith and Chicago’s sixth-round pick.
One final thing: I’ve seen a few people question the quality of the source. I can speak to that a little. I know Kurt, worked with him, know his background. Among the things he has done along the way in a long broadcast career is work the news side. So, that means that whatever happens, he would have nailed this thing down with more than one source.
Deals fall through, Klefbom may announce he’ll be ready for training camp. The Keith discussions with Chicago have taken place and this is an actual thing. I’d bet money on it.
KEITH’S 2020-21 SEASON
So this is five on five and Keith played with the department of youth quite a bit. Ian Mitchell turned 22 in January and has played 39 NHL games. Adam Boqvist will be 21 on August 15, he has played 76 NHL games plus another eight in the playoffs. Wyatt Kalynuk, who is 24, has played in 21 NHL games.
Only Connor Murphy, 28 and a veteran of over 500 NHL games, could be considered a veteran partner.
At five on five, Keith’s on-ice goals for per 60 is 2.39. His on-ice goals against per 60 is 3.10. Holland and Tippett may feel playing with someone like Adam Larsson could help suppress the goals-against when Keith is on the ice.
Some things we can say this morning:
- This is not out of character for Ken Holland. He views older players as having high value and aggressively pursues them.
- Keith played in less than ideal circumstances a year ago.
- Keith is not the player he was even three years ago.
- If Keith is the primary piece in the deal, Chicago will win the trade unless a big contract like Mikko Koskinen is part of the return. A smaller cap hit heading east, one that allows the ‘Hawks more cap room, would be a fail for Holland.
- Holland must feel Klefbom isn’t coming back.
- I’m not sure Caleb Jones is in this deal but it would make sense if Chicago is focused on acquiring his brother Seth Jones.
- Fans aren’t going to be happy.
- This is not an analytics move.
- There are better moves available.
The Nuge signing saved about $1 million in exchange for two years tacked on the end of the deal. I believe that’s a smart move, but only if the savings on the front end is used wisely.
The trade is likely to be a massive loss. The player is likely to land on the third pair. If you’re Dmitri Samorukov or Philip Broberg, this may be good news.