What if the Edmonton Oilers had traded the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 entry draft? A young roster that boasted Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle as the young guns, along with veterans Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, Ryan Smyth and more. Jeff Petry and Devan Dubnyk the key youngsters on defense and in goal, with Ryan Whitney, Ladislav Smid (soon) Justin Schultz helping to find a better day.
No. 1 overall would have delivered something special, but NHL teams tend to paint by numbers at the draft. I’ll send you No. 4 overall for No. 11 and No. 23, that’s an NHL deal involving a high pick. There are exceptions, and one of them is an expansion draft.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft from the OHL after a season that never happened?
- New DNB: Oilers are interested in trading for Blackhawks defenceman Duncan Keith — at a price
- Lowetide: Finding the ideal No. 3 centre for the Edmonton Oilers
- New DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers offseason
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ future value to the Oilers will be defined by his adaptability
- DNB: Oilers’ Connor McDavid wants ‘more consistency’ with NHL playoff officiating
- DNB: How re-signing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for eight years could help and hurt the Oilers
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers’ next wave of prospects help them win a playoff series in 2022?
- DNB: Five offseason scenarios that could upend the Oilers’ best-laid plans
- onathan Willis: How underappreciated Oilers defenceman Jeff Petry became a Canadiens mainstay
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers return to the WHL prospect pool in the 2021 draft?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is poised to exceed expectations
- Lowetide: Oilers’ prospect pipeline could be at stake as AHL coach Jay Woodcroft outgrows his minor-league role
- DNB and Dom: How the Oilers should value pending UFAs
- Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers could make a Jack Eichel-level trade happen this offseason
- Lowetide: The 7 Oilers roster spots GM Ken Holland must improve this offseason
- Lowetide: Caleb Jones, Oilers reach crossroads that could land Jones in Seattle
- Lowetide: What will Oilers do if they must replace Oscar Klefbom?
- Jonathan Willis: What comes next for the Oilers’ Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Lowetide: Why Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and more prospects are options for Oilers in 2021-22
- DNB: Ten teams the Oilers should be targeting for trades ahead of the Kraken expansion draft
- Lowetide: How Ken Holland’s transaction history could foreshadow the Oilers summer to come
- Lowetide: How close to NHL-ready is Oilers prospect Dmitri Samorukov?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations eat dust during Connor McDavid’s dream season
- Jonathan Willis: Why some of the most popular moves Ken Holland could make would be mistakes
- Lowetide: Why huge Oil Kings goalie Sebastian Cossa could be the perfect first-round fit for the Oilers
KRAKEN EXPANSION LIST
Kraken have $24 million in cap room. The Seattle club is in the same division as Edmonton, but assets are the goal and GM Ron Francis probably going to stockpile defensemen for trade (as above).
Ken Holland and Francis didn’t do any business in the years (2014-2018) both held GM jobs (Francis with the Hurricanes), so there’s no history.
Question: Is there anyone you would deal the No. 19 pick for? Anyone you feel is worth more, and would be willing to add?
Players I see as being useful (not saying they’re worth the pick) are forwards Ivan Barbashev, Andreas Athanasiou, Jake Evans, Dillon Dube, Calle Jarnkrok.
Defensemen of interest are Ryan Graves, Gustav Forsling, Scott Mayfield and Justin Holl.
Looking forward to your answers!
OILERS MOCK
- No. 19 overall: LW Zachary L’Heureux, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). He’s an agitator with some impressive skill and one of the most unique players in the draft this season. DRAFTPRO Yearbook calls him “a bull like power forward with the skills of a finesse player” and estimates he is two years away. Sebastian Cossa is a player I can also see going here, but there’s a buzz about the EOK goalie and he could be gone earlier.
- No. 115 overall: RD Jack Matier, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Huge RH defender (6.04, 205) who can skate well and has a plus shot. Good in coverage, he isn’t a precise passer but does own a plus shot and would best be described as a two-way defender.
- No. 179 overall: LW Eric Alarie, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). I have him No. 24 but there doesn’t seem to be a big buzz going on and perhaps he’ll fall. A PF style and enough skill to project as a top-six option should be make the NHL.
- No. 185 overall: LC Daniil Lazutin, SKA St. Petersburg (MHL). Speed and skill are his calling card, he’s a July 2003 and has what they used to call a projectable frame (6.02, 174).
- No. 211 overall: LC Nikita Buruyanov, MHK Dynamo, St. Petersburg (MHL). He has good foot speed, very aggressive and has a good shot. Smart player.
DUNCAN KEITH
I wanted to add a quick note on the Duncan Keith conversation on the blog yesterday. Lots of people on both sides, and I do think this deal happens (there’s way too much steam).
So, I think it’s fair to say that (in my opinion) the general manager is going to give up too much for not enough, because he believes Keith is a second pair defenseman and it’s likely Keith is third pair.
Ken Holland is going to make the deal, and my concern for the fans is that cap room, young prospects who will be NHL players and valuable picks could be sent away.
What kind of trade makes sense? For me, the most valuable piece is the cap room. So, if the Oilers are sending Kyle Turris and Caleb Jones to the ‘Hawks for Keith, then Chicago has to retain $2 million to make that deal. I still think the second pair isn’t completely addressed, but Dmitri Samorukov, Philip Broberg and William Lagesson (along with Kris Russell) could lend support.
If the deal is Turris, Jones and a pick for Keith with no money retained, Oilers management are going to get major heat from the fan base and they will absolutely have earned it.
Those precious assets were built on the back of the fans, giving up too much by plenty is a bad way to go. And I’m pro-Holland, have been impressed by his ability to make something out of little and get this team into the playoffs. Still, if you’re going to overpay this much, the player can’t be on the final lap.
Never trade first-round picks. Why does Caleb Jones factor in on a colossaly bad Duncan Keith trade? Package Jones and Kassian to the Rangers for Filip Chytil. In the least, a young player, center or left-wing, who’s starting his career is acquired. Or, Jones to Carolina for Warren Foegele. The ‘Canes are going to lose two good players to Seattle, Dougie Hamilton, Foegele, or Jake Bean. Based on the chatter around Keith, Oilers Hockey Ops isn’t lazer focused on snagging a good you player in the chaos of the Expansion Draft.
Per the post title, I might be willing to move the first for Graves and JT Compher. Two decent rentals at good cap hits for two years. Not a 100% on board but that might be worth it.
What team would be crazy enough to take Koskinen?
The answer: No team unless Chiarelli got a new GM job.
Chicago. That’s the plan
We have recency bias, and have watched him too closely.
Over his 3 season career he’s got a .908 SV%. Of the 59 goalies who’ve played 50+ games in that span his SV% is 34th. He’s been an average NHL goaltender.
He’s not worth $4.5M obviously, but he’s employable based on his hockey playing skills.
IMO it wouldn’t be that difficult to unload him if the Oilers retained half.
Puljujarvi/McDavid/Palmeri
Hall/Drai/Yamamoto
Benson/Nuge/Kassian
Khaira/McLeod/Archie
Shore/Turris
Nurse/Bear
Klef/Bouchard
Samorukov/Larsson
Russell
Puljujarvi/McDavid/Not happening
Nope/Drai/Yamamoto
Not an NHL player/Nuge/Kassian
Khaira/McLeod/Archie
Shore/Turris (seriously?)
Nurse/Not a top pairing D
Not playing /3rd pair at best
Samorukov/Larsson (might work)
Russell
Otherwise, good to go.
Obviously all of your quips are arguable.
But why no Palmeri? Seems like quite a reasonable target?
You can target whomever you like but Palmieri is a NY boy who is comfortable playing there….for the last 6 seasons.
Would you be prepared to offer the 30 year old $5 million + to uproot and move west?
I realized after I posted that he’s actually from NY. So yes, probably not that likely to want to move to western Canada.
Still worth a call though. Not at $5M (he won’t get that), but he’s a good player. Outscored Saad in 5 of the last 6 seasons, and was only 3 points back this year.
Lol. Not a bad post.
One thing I’m confused on not living in Edmonton. Is it not clear that Caleb doesn’t want to be there? Weren’t there Twitter incidents involving him and/or his mom? Suggestions and hints about him not being an oiler for the long term.
Or did that turn out to be just rumour. I’d have to assume the media has interviewed him about it.
All of that to say, I’d guess Kenny won’t protect him even if he thinks he’s among his best three defence assets. “The code” seems to drive Holland and “If he doesn’t want to be here…” fits that narrative.
The code…the same thing that caused Kenny not to claim Nedelkovic because his buddy Donnie asked him not to.
It can help to be a bit of an ass to be a GM. Think Lou or Burkie. Not sure Kenny has that edge.
The code…the same thing that caused Kenny not to claim Nedelkovic because his buddy Donnie asked him not to.
I’ve read this a few times but never saw or heard the original comment from Holland. Is this what he said?
I have seen it speculated, though that’s obviously different from whether it happened.
Didn’t a bunch of teams pass on Ned?
Every team in the League.
Well that confirms that Holland’s an idiot.
Fun fact about Ned, he was sent to the taxi squad between every damn game this year. 49 transactions in basically 3 months. I wonder how much of his $737k deal he actually made? (I guess about half)
He was on a one-way deal this season $750K in the minors (taxi squad).
Ah cool, thanks. At least he got paid, though I don’t guess he’s upset with his year in any case.
It is too bad the Oilers didn’t pick him, obviously.
Holland mentioned he did Waddell a favour in the presser after Forsberg was claimed.
I would suggest his process through the Puljujarvi situation show otherwise – with that said, I’m not sure if Holland values him in the top 3….
Another Wild thread ! Well done boyz & girls.
I am looking forward to tomorrow’s episode.
I have no idea what KH is gonna do over the next 3 weeks BUT I beive every GM is flying by the seat of their pants.
EXPANSION DRAFT – they always over think it
AMATEUR DRAFT – so much chaos due to kids playing everywhere, nowhere and in between
FREE AGENT FRENZY- When the bad GM’s get to work
Gonna be a Hella July !!
If Seth is available, and we already have Caleb, why not just hold out and make a play for Seth?
Doing Chi the favor for Keith doesn’t make sense given there are better/ cap efficient players available.
of course, as stated in other posters, value depends on price paid ie) other cap inefficient players (Neal etc.)
The Oilers won’t be able to afford Seth’s next contract.
Sure they can. They can do it quite easily
How?
Seth is not interested in Edmonton. Pretty sure.
Yep…agree totally.
which is good cause between acquisition cost and contract cost he’s definitely not worth it. He’s been pretty poor the last couple of years
Well there you go.
A 26 year old huge RHD who skates like the wind who has scored 57 points in a regular season is not worth your attention.
I’m pretty sure Jones will be a better bargain than Nurse forever and a day.
It’s not even close.
Wrong as usual
Surely you’ll agree this is a pretty silly thing to say..
Considering we haven’t seen the next deals for either player, and Nurse’s most recent season was 53 points/82 games. Jones’ 57 point season was 4 years ago, and his next best is 46 (3 years ago).
Yeah there’s no way they would be able to afford anyone good with *checks cap space*
45 million in cap space plus Klefs LTIR
yep no way
https://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=EDM
I thought you were drunk too, but yes the Oilers have $45M+ in uncommitted cap for 22-23.
Weirdest thing, even the uniquely positioned Kings have more than $5M less than that.
Are you drunk?
45 million in cap space?
actually more than 45 million
‘- You don’t get it. Word on the street is that we are getting Keith so that Seth can fit into Chicago likely with his brother who they get for free
– Why would we try to get a very good D whose brother plays here when we can pay a lot more for a guy who is a lot worse and give away his brother for free?
I’m having a hard time believing Holland spent all that time making sure Nuge takes a pay cut just to acquire Keith at full cost
I think Holland is having a hard time believing it as well.
The most likely outcome here is Seattle since they don’t need to send salary back to get this done.
The question remaining is what price they will extract to facilitate the transaction.
Francis holds ALL the cards.
If Francis is interested – which is a question in my mind.
Also, are there direct flights from Seattle to Kelowna? If Keith is doing this because of ease to visit his son that might be of some interest to him.
There are a couple of ways this makes sense for Edmonton but everybody in the media covering this rumour seems adamant that Neal/Koskinen/Klefbom are non-starters and those are the only names I see making sense from Edmonton’s perspective.
The hop from Seattle to Vancouver is about 15 minutes..I’ve done it a few times and I think you’re right…is Francis interested?
I wouldn’t be if I were him…there will many more options available unless he can extract a huge price from Chicago.
Yeah, the hop to Vancouver is nothing but that isn’t where his son is if I have been following the plot properly. Changing planes, going through customs etc. is not my idea of a quick trip. And, yes, he can afford a charter but I’m just saying Edmonton, Vancouver or Calgary are all a lot easier.
And I don’t think Francis is going to be taking that contract for free so where does that leave Bowman?
Without trying to be too obsequious, he could hop on a Cessna and be in Penticton in about half an hour.
But I agree that Francis will be looking to extract a heavy price.
I wrote the other day that this was the silly season for rumours. Normally the cup has been won before it starts but this is a short off season and the cup really was won after the 3rd round.
The media is looking for filler since they are running out of real material imo.
Yep.
You get one of those NEXUS passes to get through US and Canada customs back and forth.
There was direct flights pre covid. I’m unsure now.
Thanks. Wasn’t sure.
But he doesn’t
plenty of other teams are able to join in negotiations
and after Vegas no one is going out of their way to help Seattle grow a team
Ottawa Columbus Florida LA and of course Edmonton
There is only ONE team in the league that has no cap issues no matter how you would like it to be otherwise.
maybe I’m klondike eric…..does that get you going?
Yup, that’s what I’ve been posting, can’t see him grinding away on Nuge to get that cap down by apx $1M and then take on massive bad cap in this move.
Thankfully, yesterday’s reports were that management wasn’t keen unless the cap essentially evened out.
Brace yourself Laddie.
Ken is on it.
– I think the tone is a little melodramatic re Keith: I don’t think anyone in hockey believes that anything other than retained salary to move Keith makes sense. He’s just not very good anymore. He’s old. Expensive. Slow. Doesn’t score. No one wants him. Am I missing anything? This is just off season nonsense.
-How much does Larsson sign for $3.5 – 4? Keith is worth considerably less.
-We aren’t gifting real D plus to get him : are we? I don’t get it. Summer time doldrums. Please be right Kinger.
Is he slow? I’ve read/heard that he still moves pretty good.
Nugent-Bowman wrote yesterday that the Oilers management is not keen on the move unless they can essentially even the cap out.
CAP space is worth a fortune. Please KH don’t blow it for an ageing veteran on a desperate team. If they want it we need to put a line in the sand want we want. Salary retain plus we get a 2nd round pick if you want Jones included or Neal straight up. We should be throwing boat anchors just like the other GMS do to us. We need to play HARDBALL and win some trades Any trade should be done after the expansion draft
Just want to note that Chris Chelios was +48 his first full season in Detroit, +20 more than the next closest player on the team. He was hurt his second season, was +40 in his third campaign, +17 more than the next closest player. All the caveats about +/- apply here. His last two years in Chicago he was +4 and -7.
Maybe Holland’s superpower is finding old players who have sustain. It would be worth going through his trade history to see how it stacks up on either side of the ledger but I’m short on time at the moment. Might try to tackle it in bits if I’m able.
Keith puts the done in Duncan.
Bowman is truly fucked.
Think about this.
Let’s say Bowman finds Holland’s demands for taking Keith too punitive.
So he manages to convince Keith to waive his NMC so he can be left unprotected.
But Francis also knows Bowman needs to move the player… so he calls up Stan and says, “Hey ya, we’re not taking him unless you sweeten the pot. That 1st rounder looks nice. Etc.”
If I’m Holland, I’m taking three days to respond to Bowman’s phone calls. Anything I can do to burn up the calendar and make that draft deadline loom larger.
What will the deal look like when Bowman is desperate? That’s the question a grinder needs to ask.
Bowman can also say “sorry Duncan, we can’t make it work”…..
Duncan can say cool I’ll play this year then retire. Have fun with the recap
He should get traded for Neal and then retire after this coming season – would be a boon for Edmonton cap wise – lose Neal and then get a cap benefit (decrease) due to the recapture.
And Duncan can reply, “How’s your protected list working out for you?
lol
Here is a trade that I could see happening. Note that it’s not something that I am advocating for, just a scenario I could see Holland doing:
Chicago trades Keith and a 3rd (?) round pick to a team like Ottawa or Arizona.
Ott/Arz trades Keith with 40% (?) retained to the Oilers.
Edmonton trades Caleb Jones and Turris to Chicago.
Chicago takes on Turris for a year and gives up a 3rd. They also get some upside back with Jones and unload all of Keith’s cap hit.
Ott/Arz have a ~$2.2 million cap hit for 2 years but only pay $840k and $600k in real dollars in return for a 3rd round pick. (I’m spitballing here on the cost of taking on 40% of his salary).
Edmonton gets Keith for 2 years at just over $3.3 million. They lose Jones (whom they may lose anyways in the expansion draft) but they also shed Turris.
Or maybe they force Chicago to give up a 2nd to Ott/Arz in exchange for taking on 50% of Keith’s contract.
Anyways, this is not a trade scenario that I particularly love, but it is something I could see happening.
I mean nobody could predict the detail of the numbers.
But the concept is exceptionally good.
A third party who, if reasonably compensated , will essentially eat cap for both teams.
Some version of this is probably the way it will shake out; however I think the Oilers throwing in Jones would be an overpay, especially when you consider they would then lose another player to Seattle. Arizona, with no 1st or 3rd round pick this year might jump on the chance to add another early 2nd round pick (along with their own and the Blue Jackets) and might even be willing to move one of them to Edmonton for Jones since they have a lot of vacancies on defense next season.
“Will Edmonton draft from the OHL after a season that never happened? There are several outstanding candidates.”
Hey. We already own that guy in the picture! Why isn’t he on your list? 🙂
Voter poll.
Hit plus on one of the two posts below to answer
Do you like Duncan Keith straight up (no assets going the other way) with $2,288,462 retained?
So an AVV as an Oiler of $3,250,000
Yes
No
Taking Koskinen and buying him out creates more cap space for Chicago than the above retention.
It benefits both teams more.
The Wirtz’s are effing wealthy, The buyout cost of Koskinen is their walking around cash.
I take your point, but
The scenario in the poll wasn’t designed as a mechanism for a trade.
It was set-up to gauge the posters perceived value for Duncan Keith.
Koskinen is better than any of the three goalies Chitown is paying right now.
Are you sure? Lankinen had better traditional numbers
What would it cost to convince you to take on Keith’s cap hit without retention or a bad contract going back? I’ve been chewing on that a little this afternoon and I’m not sure what it would take for me. It’s tough because there are enough bad contracts on the Oilers already, but we know that one year of Marleau was worth Toronto’s first before COVID with a steadily rising cap. And that was coming off a useful 18 goal season. Are Keith’s two remaining years worth 2 firsts? Or Dach? If he can contribute next year? Awesome. I have no idea what Holland is thinking, but I think that to take on Keith’s entire contract I would ask for at least Dach, or I’d walk away from the deal.
Just remember that no retention/bad contract very likely means no Cap room for re-signing Larsson. Also, it creates other issues with new contracts required this year and next…Yamamoto, Nurse, Bear, goalie(s) to name a few.
Of course. That’s why I would charge a premium to take on the contract. It puts the Oilers in a bad spot, and it’s going to force them to choose between signing a top four defenseman and an impact winger for the top six. So for me, I would make Chicago fill the top six role with an offensive player who is on an entry level contract, and if Keith is helpful either with his play or mentoring the yutes, that’s just a bonus.
I’ll take “Keith, Strome and a 2nd round draft pick FOR a 7th round draft choice”, Alex.
Kubalik not Strome and it’s a deal.
Kirby Dach is going nowhere, regardless of Keith’s demands.
I don’t doubt that for a second. But then I’d walk away from the deal, although I like godots suggestion of Strome and a second. Chicago’s first this year doesn’t move the needle for me unless it can be flipped for a reasonably priced forward who can play on the top line.
Actually, being able to flip our first round pick for theirs is an enticement worth considering.
It would put us in the game for either goalie, possibly enough for a choice of either Wallstedt or Cossa.
There would have to be other moving parts (including at least not taking on extra cap) but that is a wrinkle of interest to me.
Jonathan Willis (@JonathanWillis) Tweeted:
One more thing to keep in mind amid these Oilers/Duncan Keith rumours: there are a pile of LD out there vulnerable to expansion, and Seattle will take more than it can fit on its roster.
With the expansion effect, it should be the ultimate buyer’s market for 2nd pair D.
https://twitter.com/JonathanWillis/status/1411373828526120960?s=20
Jonathan Willis (@JonathanWillis) Tweeted:
And Chicago is certainly among the teams that know this this. If they trade Keith pre-expansion, it would mean they can protect an extra D – probably 23-yo Riley Stillman, who played so well after coming over in trade – who they could otherwise lose to Seattle.
https://twitter.com/JonathanWillis/status/1411375285505646594?s=20
If the league got smarter than they were there is no way they pay more knowing Seattle can only play so many second pairing D. My thought is that if I was a GM or Owner during the Vegas expansion the knowledge obtained would assure that the same shit would not be happening again. Screw me once bad on you screw me twice bad on me! If nothing was learned from the Vegas experience I will be surprised but not necessarily shocked. I believe that the GM’s of the NHL are much smarter than the average fan thinks. Everyone makes mistakes the separation between successful people and others is learning from the mistakes and not making the same mistakes again.
I remain confident Keith would be an invaluable mentor for the Oilers young D including Nurse, if he is only asked to play within himself.
You don’t go from one of the best D in your era to useless if you are fit and not hampered due to injury history and were an elite skater.
Spezza is doing fine in TO. They are the same age, Spezza has had injury issues with his back.
He’s also a big guy, his skating is much more likely to become an issue. And he was never the skater the smaller Keith is.
At the end of the day, Spezza cost Dumas nothing, and that is the key for Holland.
You cannot give anything much up. Helping out Bowman in moving his club forward etc and in accommodating Keith is enough to give.
I’d rather do that than pay a lot for a younger D you have to trade after next year (Holland almost certainly won’t) to retain the value spent. Letting them walk is burning assets again and this team has to move to start accumulating assets not wasting them.
Keith can walk in two, no big deal and the others can take over. Or sign cheap as the 7 D if it’s working as the system will be thin at LD.
There is a reason the more active GMs don’t completely run out of draft capital. You sell anybody worth anything if they aren’t in the plans or don’t fit the cap.
Marody should have been cashed and Benson too if they aren’t giving him a legit shot, after the success they’ve had in the A.
What were the offers for career AHLer Marody?
Some teams like skilled AHL scoring players. They have waited too long with Marody, but teams constantly trade minor leaguers. They often move in larger deals.
The Bolts, and The Hawks have a history of looking for value. The Hawks have taken Oiler pieces several times, no?
My point is trying to get value from assets. Trade for a player in a position of need. Maybe a different RHC you might actually like, for example.
The Oilers have a history of blowing assets as we know. Talented RHCs have value. Talented any player has value of some sort.
Lennstrom is another. His chances of making the Oilers are about zero. See what you can get.
I’m quite confident that Benson will get every chance to make the team this season. Last season’s circumstances were what they were.
Hope Dies Last.
Take your first sentence and change would be to could be, only things in life that are certain are death and taxes! There are individuals that are good mentors and others that are not! All men that sire kids are not good fathers!
True. I still think players that have a lot of relevant experience are better than guys that don’t or have never been top players.
They are not good mentors. See The Capt Ference.
Haven’t seen Keith play enough this past year to properly evaluate if it’s a good bet or not but two things come to mind.
First of all. With this seemingly being Keith wanting to move on and being quite specific about where he goes it seems to me Holland is sitting on all the cards. Keith has earned his right to move on without Chicago pushing back so not moving him is not an option and Oilers seems to be pretty much the only viable trade partner. Holland certainly has a chance to play hardball here.
Second. Keith seems to have struggled to produce results in #1D minutes with a bunch of partners with very little history of successfully playing on a top pairing. And on a defensively suspect team overall. Really difficult to tell if he’s still able to play top 4 minutes based on his numbers due to this, I certainly wouldn’t count him out, he’s incredibly talented and hasn’t had any crippling injuries, those guys tend to be able to stay relevant for a long time. From guys following the Hawks he’s still a plus skater and physically in really good shape. I think there’s reasonable hope that coming to a new team surrounded by a better D group and two of the most exciting forwards in hockey might give him a boost. Just having a change of scenery after all those years in Chicago could very well light a fire in the veteran.
Having said that. He’s at an age where the wheels can fall off real quick so every sign of regression is scary. And there are signs no doubt. If Holland can get a good deal with Hawks eating a lot of his cap hit I’d say the possible benefit is worth the risk. But it’s a gamble.
You know who is going to make out like a bandit in the expansion draft?
Rob Blake….that’s who.
The LAK exempt list is just ridiculously talented and they aren’t likely to lose a player of much importance.
https://rinkroyalty.com/2021/07/01/la-kings-how-the-viktor-arvidsson-acquisition-impacts-expansion-draft/
All Blake has to do is sit and wait for teams to come calling and he can extract assets to help teams with their issues.
You know other than prospect pool you are describing the Oilers right?
Right?
That prospect pool is a huge advantage because Blake can use it for draft exempt trades and it also means he doesn’t have to worry about sending draft picks out as he did in the Arvidson transaction since his pipeline is already pretty much full.
And he still has 4 picks in the first 3 rounds while the Oilers have just 1.
Huge difference.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Having prospects is one thing, making it all into a strong team is another.
And having elite prospects a different story again.
The potential is there, I just looked over this vaunted organization’s roster and the Reign.
I’m not seeing what you do. Some good players, no sure fire soon to be stars. Byfield a disappointment. And they have to make it through Flattop killing their offense.
The Condors had a lot of success against the Reign.
Not to mention that their youngest best player Doughty is also now into his 30’s. Kopitar 34. Traded Carter.
Gonna be rough for a few years I think.
Oh my.
Byfield is still 18!!!! and he’s a disappointment?
The Condors iced a very veteran team while the Reign roster was very young and showed well in the last portion of the season.
If they hit on even half their prospects, they’ll be a powerhouse.
Not really as the Oilers don’t need the proverbial home run a single or two puts them in a good place!?
LA is still a couple years away from being a contender. Even then there’s always a risk the rebuild implodes and it has to be restarted.
I also don’t trust McLellan as a rookie coach, I think he lost us some talent in his time here.
Not much reason for Edmonton to worry about them in the near future anyway. I think they’re a wildcard team this season or barely miss.
To early to make any kind of call.
They have a ton of picks, prospects and cap space to work with.
Yep. Arvidsson was a nice pick, let’s see what else they can do.
Vegas and Seattle are probably the ones to worry about though. Maybe Calgary if they can get back on track
Arvidsson pickup increased their projection to 75 points
oh my
If it is too early to make the call why have you been doing that for the last three months!
The fact is the value of Keith goes up after the expansion draft. The fact that Keith has asked for the trade because of personal reasons to a very small number of teams instantly makes Keith less value on the open market. Keith’s NTC means that he has to protected for the expansion draft and Chicago will have to leave a D that they might prefer to protect unprotected.
The Keith story is taking a life unto itself.
A contracted player wants a change of scenery, is all we know.
A player wanting a change of location is an age old quest. I doubt a GM with the experience of Holland is getting all twisted unless it works for him. He has been through this a dozen times.
People are scared Holland will ruin the team this offseason. So far (Nuge/Shore) he’s done good
When standing still is good?
Do you recall the fable of the Pied Piper?
Nuge signing was a win and it’s nice to get it out of the way early. Larsson contract is apparently getting close, we’ll see what that looks like before judging it.
Most GMs haven’t done anything yet because we’re still far away from expansion draft, draft and free agency.
Duncan Keith could be a win if Neal goes the other way. Probably not but we will see.
The last GM would have given Nuge 7.5*7. Larss 5*6 and traded Draisaitl for Jones. 1 for 1.
oops
So did PC and in a moment of linear thinking, stupidity took over.
I think that’s the play here Georges- hang tight and see what transpires
Kenny doesn’t really have any expansion issues as we sit – he has a path to protect his 2 most ‘exposed’ assets in Benson and Jones
I just hope he has the discipline to see this through, I’ve got a feeling Keith will still be there after the dust settles
I wonder what a low-mid tier forward like Blueger would cost? His name show up on many Kraken mock drafts.
Vancouver is in a similar spot except they have Demko to protect.
This whole trade proposal surrounding Keith is absolute madness. But what do I know….
It is madness. There is no way this move works out for us. I read something, and posted here, about infighting amongst the levels of management over player acquisition. Everyone has to be on the same page for anything to improve.
Someone please pull Holland away from this move. It’s nonsensical in every way.
Source?
I posted the link here but it got held up. The article is called Infighting Within The Oilers Organization Being Hinted At By Club Insider. It’s over at BLH.
Friedman’s podcast today:
https://podcast.sportsnet.ca/31-thoughts/guelph-jammies/
2 teams that Keith is interested who are interested in him, SEA and EDM.
EDM is in the driver’s seat, only stumbling block is EDM doesn’t want the whole cap hit.
It’s about 75% through the podcast.
If Keith really wants to do his team a favour, waive the NMC and head to Seattle.
This makes more sense than the Edmonton trade, IMO.
I dont think Seattle wants that bloated contract any more than we do. They aren’t going to be doing Chicago any favor’s that’s for sure.
I wonder what Francis can extract from Chicago in return for taking on Keith?
I would hold out for a pick and Kubalik…he’s a stone cold killer.
If Seattle is interested in Keith and he is interested in going there, then that makes acquiring him very tricky. If we wait til after the expansion draft, would Seattle just take him from Chicago? I don’t know what the Blackhawks unprotected list looks like.
If we trade for him before, then we cannot sign Larsson and protect all of Nurse, Keith, Larsson and Bear.
Years from now, people who were connected might write about Keith and say something to the effect of: the only reason Keith never became an Oiler was because of expansion.
Let him go to Seattle if Chicago won’t take Koskinen in the deal for Keith.
Thanks, WG.
That’s a good thing they don’t want the CAP it. Now still to your guns. Other cheaper options.
That’s actually not what I am referring to.
The expansion draft date is July 21, 2021.
From today until then, the protection scheme of the draft forces many teams to potentially expose a very good defenseman like Ryan Graves.
Teams like Colorado will want a premium for Graves.
They’ll be playing a high-stakes game of chicken.
There’s only a limited number of suitors for potential trade parters and there will be other trade candidates available for those suitors.
If their ask is too high and they wait too long, the risk getting nothing in return and just exposing an asset like Graves.
This is what happened with Theordore.
It will be exciting to watch.
I don’t think Theodore actually needed protection. He was exempt. He was traded so all of Lindholm, Fowler, Vatanen, and Manson, etc could be protected.
Bob Murray was trying not to alienate any of his existing players by leaving them unprotected.
That’s correct. I was trying to be succinct.
Anaheim had nine players to protect plus Bieksa had a NMC.
They were too cheap to buyout Bieksa, so they Traded Theodore for Vegas to take Stoner instead of Vatenen or Mason, who were exposed.
Either way, some very good d shook loose.
Washington lost Schmidt, though I didn’t follow that story.
I think Neil for Keith is a reasonable deal if the Oilers plan to play Keith. Neil’s buyout at $1.9M is a big cap savings for the Hawks plus they open up a expansion protection spot.
I have no idea if the Oilers playing Keith for the next 2 years is a good idea, the contract is essentially buyout proof even in the last year.
Someone explain to me how acquiring Keith gets the Oilers closer to the Cup.
Unless he’s skewering Chicago I don’t see this being a positive. Our roster isn’t set enough to do Keith a solid.
Holland not following suit with Carolina and not grabbing Nedeljkovic on waivers shows me which way the wind is blowing with Holland.
We’re all pals, Hockey Canada, thousand points of light, mission accomplished.
I think “Keith, Bouchard” is the plan.
Who’s this Bouchard fella you speak of.
Klefbolm is a really issue for Oiler’s planning, he holds all the cards – if he can pass a physical.
I really don’t see Klefbolm retiring. He has done his surgery and rested. Athletes in their prime try one more time – there is so much game day “medicine” he can definitely play. But Kenny will need a back up plan given Klefbolm’s annual injury .. hmmm.
Anyone that suffers from arthritis knows that the mountain Klef has to climb isn’t one where he’s going to play because there’s game day medicine available.
If he is to try one more time imo it will be in 2022/2023, most likely in Sweden with a if it goes well he’ll have a similar comeback to the NHL like Forsberg.
2023/2024 he comes back and plays 3rd pairing minutes with Adam on the last year of his 3yr deal.
Now everyone is wondering what this suggested defender set will look like.
Nurse/Bouchard
Russian Nursekarov/Broberg
Oscar/Adam
Kris fucking Russell cause he’s never leaving.
Why would Kelfbom retire he’s still owed over 8 million dollars. When a player speaks of Quality of life (pain) on everyday activities never mind playing in the NHL speaks volumes on his return.
Of course, Klef is going everything he can to resume an NHL career – that’s his #1 goal – per his agent this past week.
And agents always tell the truth.
What possible benefit does it have for his client to make that up?
It supports his client and his stated wishes.
So, the thought is that Klef is all but certain he’s not going to be able to play again but has instructed his agent to put out a quote that he’s doing everything in his power to resume an NHL career (while knowing the “uncertainty” is the least favorable of the options for the team)?
So, Klef’s a d*^K the I guess……
I think you are the one being a d*^k about all this OP.
Stop making up stuff and acting like that is what anybody said just because you don’t like people disagreeing with you.
Pardon? I’m not making anything up – his agent said what he said and I can’t think of any reason why he’d say it if it wasn’t true, can’t seem a benefit to his client.
Noone here has been able to provide a reason why his agent would make it up.
Sigh. You are like a dog with a bone. Just give it a rest OP. Just stop implying that I said any of the crap you wrote in the post that started this conversation because I didn’t and I am tired of you misrepresenting what I did say.
Is that too much to ask?
Lol… You understand that the agent was not telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, right? And you understand that there are levels of prevarication and omission, right?
The agent is going to report the bluest-sky story he can without outright fabrication.
Parsing his words: desperate all-out efforts on the part of Klefbom may result in him playing again.
That is how blue this sky gets; in other words, it looks like a thunderstorm is rolling in.
This where a good GM prepares for the worst.
Your mileage obviously varies.
No, I understand that Klef is doing everything he can to try and resume an NHL career – his stated goal the entire time. I don’t see any reason for his agent to state that if its not the case – if its not the case, then they know he’s not going to be playing and there isn’t any reason to hide that.
Exactly my point.
Yes. He is doing everything humanly possible and despite pulling out all stops that is still no guarantee.
That should scare the living bejesus out of any NHL GM.
Kenny kinda has them over a barrel if Keith will only go to that part of the map, and they plan on dangling Caleb Jones to land his brother. A shrewd GM would definitely capitalize on that situation. I think Kenny might be too much of a straight shooter to be ruthless and deliver a kill-shot here.
When’s the last time Kenny won a trade. I’m sure Holland is very competitive and wants nothing more than to bring a Cup back to his home province. Saying that one has to wonder if Holland still has the edge to fleece another GM or just win a trade.
It’ll be funnier than all get out with all these Keith rumours just being chum in the water for the 1st day of Free Agency when Holland signs Abdelkader and Helm to 5 year deals with full NMC’s. ?
Surely I jest ladies and gentlemen, just don’t call me Shirley if anything that catastrophic actually happens.
I don’t think “funny” means what you think it means. 🙂
?
I’ll gladly offer myself up for pitchfork and torch burning practice if anything that funky transpires LT.
Don’t forget Tatar.
Don’t forget Tatar and Kulikov…
Watched a bunch of Chicago 2020-21 game footage yesterday. Lots of noticeable goals against where Keith was the main guy at fault.
He also often had to make up for mistakes his work-in-progress partners made. There were a lot of two on Keith plays and 3 on Keith plays against Chicago last year where he was set up for failure.
I got the impression that his feet can no longer make up for his defensive reads. He makes good, not great reads. At his age and speed, those reads need to be spot on to play in a top 4 role. This is true even if he’s sliding down from #1 in Chicago to #4 in Edmonton.
He’s also not undersized, but not Weber big. Lots of noticeable moments he got badly out-musceled in key net front situations.
On the positive side, lots of key breakout plays on Chicago goals for. He had lots of instrumental 3rd assists. Some really crafty veteran passes and he made excellent use of the boards. One play of note in particular where he used the boards to slip the puck past 3 defenders, right to Kane waiting by the offensive blue line. It was a really great play.
Appreciate the report and time you put in to do that.
The more I read, the more I think Keith – Larsson could be a very good second pairing if reports of Keith’s demise are exaggerated. It seems like most criticism is about Keith’s lack of physicality and his physicality degradation being exposed as the first man back.
If this thing happens, I really hope you’re right. The footage I watched didn’t fill me with confidence, but also gave me the impression that last year’s analytics on Keith maybe don’t tell the full story. I think it’s at least possible that Keith sees a resurgence under Tippett and with with a partner like Larsson.
First round pick … why not Logan Stanley? I am surprised he’s on your list because for the Kraken. I would have assumed that Winnipeg will protect him somehow. He was a force against the Oilers in the playoffs and is just getting his career started.
As for Keith, the biggest problem that the management of any sports team has is living in the past. The past glories of a player, the past troubles they caused when they were played against too often dominate the thinking of management.
I completely support analytics for this. Management must look at the facts, not the glory, and really make a critical assessment of a player.
You’ve hit the nail on the head. Anything more than Keith including at least $2M salary retained for say Caleb Jones will be a very poor deal. And Turris is only worth $500,000 kish since the obvious solution is the farm team.
Winnipeg is smitten with Logan Stanley. Firstly, he won’t be left unprotected, and secondly, a first prob doesn’t move the needle. Chevy rarely makes mistakes…
I protected Morrissey, DeMelo and Pionk for Winnipeg. Maybe they cut loose DeMelo? It’s my understanding they like him a lot.
A first wouldn’t move the needle for Stanley?
Oh my.
LT, would it be worth a 2022 1st rounder for the Oilers to part with in a trade with Seattle for Graves and Tierney? Would Seattle even do that? Graves would be our 2nd LHD and Tierney is your 3rd line centre.
The OIlers cannot contend without elite talent on ELC’s in the pipeline. The only way to get that is through the draft.
Graves and Tierney equivalents can be obtained through cap dump or UFA for just money or next to nothing.
2 years of Graves is not nearly enough to give up a 1st round draft pick for.
Vancouver got a 25-year old 1st line centre left wing power forward with four years left on his contract for JT MIller. That is the type of asset one trades a 1st round pick for.
I agree that it seems quite likely that a deal is going to happen.
I may be in the minority with thinking that Duncan Keith, the player, can help this team. I know what the stats say but I still can’t get on board with him being “worse than Kris Russell”, etc. The stats also say that Seth Jones is a bad d-man.
I do think there is a reasonable chance that this player can improve the 2LD over last season and be a bit of a stop-gap to Sammy/Broberg at that position.
Of course, there can be zero actual value given up in return unless the deal is 10)% cap neutral for the Oilers – that is James Neal going the other way, for example.
I can get on board with this acquisition if its cap neutral for the Oilers. From yesterday’s accounts, that is important for Oilers’ management as well and that makes sense. I can’t see management grinding so hard to get the Nuge cap hit down and then taking on a big cap bump in obtaining Duncan Keith.
This sort of trade helps Chicago a lot and it certainly helps Duncan Keith out a lot. What about the Oilers? What is in it for the Oilers to take on this massive risk?
The worst case scenario is easy to envision: Keith can’t play 2 LHD, plays on the third pairing, blocks Samorukov/Broberg, cap space is wasted, and Jones flourishes elsewhere.
Jones actually performed well in a top four role two seasons ago and has less than 100 NHL games played to his name. Last season his underlying numbers were fine. Giving him another shot should definitely be in the cards.
Even if you don’t think Jones is the long term answer at 2 LHD, having him rehabilitate his value is better for long term team-building.
Exactly. Tell Chicago that they can buy out Keith and then we’ll workout a contract with him as a UFA if we’re interested. Chicago is asking the Oilers to do them a favour so that they can clear cap to sign someone else. We don’t owe them anything, so the question is what are they going offer in exchange? Like I said yesterday anything less than a clear win in the trade is a huge fail.
I don’t understand the risk – equal bad cap in James Neal is going out. If Keith can’t provide any value on the ice, like Neal, well, its net neutral.
Ya, we lose the buyout option we have with Neal but I hate that option in any event.
If Keith retires after year 1, its a massive boon (would actually create a net reduction in the Oilers’ cap on the recapture rules).
Recall also that the GF/GA stats are just fine for Russell.
and Seth Jones had a GF% of 46% last season and an xGF% of 45%.
Yes, I’d deal the pick for a youngish legit top 6 forward with either term or RFA status – so not a “one year to UFA” player like Rackell.
This is the Sam Reinhart deal (as long as they could speak with the player first to ensure a reasonable contract for term could be signed). Of course, add to the first round pick in order to get this player – whether it be Samorukov or another piece (or pieces).
I’d almost prefer a right wing like Reinhart as I could see Reinhart, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto being a contending top 3 on the right side.
Yes, left side is a current hole but I see Holloway as a top 6 LW within a year and I think, if Lavoie makes it, it will be as a left wing.
Savoie some time away on the right side.
Savoie is a lefty… I think I’d rather have Cossa than Reinhart, but if he’s gone at 19 and Buffalo is willing to dance, having SR impact the roster immediately is certainly better than having another skater prospect who is 2-3 years away. Like you, I’d have to have a reasonable deal in place with the player prior to pulling the trigger, but I can’t think of any reason he wouldn’t be willing to sign in Edmonton.
As a bonus, Reinhart can also play center.
Savoie shoots left but he plays right wing at Denver. I’m not sure where he may play in pro but I think its likely the right side.
Similar to Lavoie who shoots right but has been playing the left wing as a Condor and that’s where I see him at the NHL level (subject to Tip being amenable to such a thing).
Shooters – off wing, good (except on the defensive zone boards).
Reinhart is my top trade priority this off season as well since I am pretty much positive that Hamilton is not feasible.
Reinhart will look pretty good in black and silver. 🙂
Would trading Koskinen and and Turris for him make any sense? Frees up more space this year for us and Chicago doesn’t have to worry about either of these contracts after this year.
That takes on $5M plus of cap for the Oilers in 2022/23 which is a non-starter.
Only viable if Keith agrees to retire which would make the transaction a MASSIVE win for the Oilers as it would hit the Hawks with a recapture penalty and actually provide a negative cap hit for the Oilers.
I don’t think he’d do that to the Hawks.
One of Ron Francis’s priorities is “financial flexibility”.
Keith’s cap hit is over $5 million but his salary is just $2.1 million next season and $1.5 million in its final year during the ‘22-23 season.
If Keith is willing to waive his NMC, Seattle may be a better dance partner than Edmonton
Financial flexibility for Seattle means cap space.
Ownership has committed to spending to the cap.
I think Keith would prefer to play with McDavid and Draisaitl.
The arguments for acquiring Keith are:
1 – His coach still plays him a lot.
2 – He baby sat rookies which hurt his numbers.
3 – Blackhawks fans say he can still play.
All of these things are or could be true. At the same time:
1 – Maybe Colliton doesn’t have a better option. We’ve certainly seen dmen played out of their depth on this team.
2 – By WOWY, Keith was actually at his best (statistically) playing with Boqvist.
3 – I swore up and down Hemsky wasn’t done as a first line winger when he was traded (he was). Many thought that Janne Niinimaa had plenty more to offer (he did not). When numbers decline and memories of players are fond, it can be hard to put those two together. The music stops for everyone at some point, even future hall of famers.
Unless you are convinced Keith can play on the second pair, this trade doesn’t make sense and it’s certainly not worth the effort to go through cap gymnastics to have another LHD for the third pair.
I was initially onboard with the idea of this trade if it involved Neal. It clearly doesn’t.
Even if it did, there’s still the massive opportunity cost of missing out on an absolute buyers market that exists right now for top four d afforded to us by the expansion draft.
Last expansion draft, Bob Murray exposed Shea Theodore because he couldn’t find a buyer before the music stopped.
Knighttown (I believe) made this point. If you have cap space, you can wait a bit further into the off-season and see what shakes loose.
That’s where you get those Devin Toews type trades.
Make no mistake, the big winner of a Keith deal is Chicago. They want Seth Jones or Hamilton, and if they get rid of Keith without taking back much salary they can get it done.
I have ZERO confidence in Kenny. Way past his prime like Duncan Keith?
It would cost the Blackhawks $9,876,924 over the next four seasons to buyout Keith and their total savings over the 4 year period is only $1.2m
Bob Stauffer is floating Keith with 25% retained, $5,538,462 x .75 = $4,161,272
Hopefully Bob is setting expectations so the Holland can look good if Keith comes in under that number. Probably something that starts with a 3.
Guessing that’s the line in the sand. Oil want something that starts with 3, Hawks want something that starts with 4.
? You’re getting your numbers mixed up. Cap Friendly has the Keith buyout cost at a total cash cost of $2.4 million (4 x $600,000). The $9,876,924 is the total Cap hit resulting from the buyout.
I worded it poorly. I was referring to Cap Space. ( which the Hawks would need to fit in a Hamilton or Seth Jones.)
It would cost the Blackhawks $9,876,924 in cap space over the next four seasons to buyout Keith and their total cap savings over the 4 year period is only $1.2m
Whereas, if they move Keith to Edmonton at say $4m x 2, they create 8m in cap space
as compared to buying him out.
The scar tissue is disrupting flow to a lot of brains around here.
Holland may prove himself a clown – but let him do so. Assuming all is horrible is no way to approach this.
I’m hoping for a cap swap, young player swap, and Keith winding up in the 6/7 spot. More useful than Neal where he is – and possibly leading to a better goalie if they move Koskinen.
Breathe people. Good things happen. These are not the days of Lowe and MacTavish.
I still don’t believe they’re aiming to do what it actually takes to win – but am looking forward to being proven wrong.
If Chicago has its way, they will sign/acquire Hamilton or Seth Jones, get rid of a declining Keith, and be further along on their rebuild. That is a gigantic win for them.
The upside for us is…Keith can maybe be a second pairing D? Even if he is, I’m not sure he will mesh well with Larsson. And for that we are sacrificing cap space, flexibility, and also potentially blocking a younger guy who could be better in that spot.
Further, I don’t understand what Neal/Koskinen/Kassian have to do with all this. Neal can be bought out increasing cap flexibility, Kassian can be moved, and I suspect Koskinen can as well. You can do all that without taking a huge gamble AND end up with better players.
Holland has a history of signing veterans, the sky is falling were all doomed.
Holland has a history of winning cups and surrounding his drafted stars with talent when the organization was in win mode and not just trying to keep the playoff active streak alive for dying ownership.
Fuck it were all doomed.
There is a lot of consternation amongst the fan base over adding a future HOF defenseman in a reduced role for a short term (at a reduced cap hit).
he certainly has managed to get us in the playoffs (anything can happen) the last two seasons..all while having about two dollars to spend…I do trust kenny far more than his immediate predecessors…just saying
PTSD from the decade of darkness with incompetent management and coaches the ilk of Dallas Eakins! It does unkind things to the psyche! Also a pessimist is rarely disappointed.?
I took a magic marker and wrote Dallas Eakins on the inside of my toilet bo, I piss and shit on that fucker all day. I drink too much coffee
HH is very often disappointed.
My bookie says otherwise.
Fair enough.
#uck Bookje #uck that guy!
oh…wrong Bookie
Kenny’s job is to supply a roster to get to the dance, Tipps job is to finish the dance. I’ll always be much more concerned about the coach that doesn’t know the phrase in-game adjustments. Hire Ty Lue, runs some zones, start Connor at the 5.
I 100% agree with this. Also that Holland likely is going to overpay (though hopefully not to the extent of #2 above).
I do think Keith should be able to handle 2LD, but we obviously can’t know that until/unless a deal is consummated and the player actually suits up for the team.
Even if you think Keith can play second pairing minutes, why take the risk when so many better players are available?
Keith on the third pairing as the fifth best penalty killer on the roster and maybe the third best powerplay option is the most realistic scenario.
I don’t agree with that take at all.
‘So many better players available’ I guess depends on how you rate Keith. As 3rd pairing/5th PK, well clearly there are many available.
If you think he’s 2nd pair (which I said I did) the group is much smaller. We’re talking who, Martinez, Oleksiak, Graves. I must be missing some, but setting aside actual value the 1st 2 are going to want term on their UFA deals, the latter is going to (I guess) cost more in assets than Keith (and I also think Colorado might protect him).
In terms of PK, Keith was 7 seconds behind Murphy as most used last season. So coach still thinks he’s the best option. You used “PK’ rather than 4v5 numbers yesterday, and Keith’s GA numbers jump there (I guess he’s 1st option on 3v4 and 3v5 too, which are real tough to kill off).
So if we look at 4v5 numbers like we’re used to doing. Keith’s last 5 seasons (as I think you looked at yesterday).
16-17 2:25TOI 8.9GA/60 7.4xGA/60
17-18 2:17TOI 7.0GA/60 6.8xGA/60
18-19 1:46TOI 10.0GA/60 8.6xGA/60
19-20 2:45TOI 5.2GA/60 6.9xGA/60
20-21 2:33TOI 10.4GA/60 6.7xGA/60
You see the GA/60 numbers jump around (that’s expected because these are all small samples, 130-190 minutes). xGA/60 and TOI are both much more consistent and show no sign of any deterioration.
So yeah, I don’t agree 3rd pair and 5th PK option is most realistic. And I don’t think there are actually very many options out there that are better. Much less ones that are available on a 2 year term.
Because those other players would cost cap space? Of course, my premise here is a cap neutral transaction (equal bad cap going out for what cap is coming in) – if that’s the case, I have time for Keith on the roster but do not have time for acquiring the player for any real asset out or if it takes on cap.
When you’re holding a royal flush it is imperative to win the pot!
Part of my post was meaning to say we can’t know who wis the pot until we see the player on his new team and in his new role (as well as the details of the trade of course).
This is true of every trade to an extent, but here we have a player carrying around some poor numbers who’s still playing #1D minutes. The takes on him range from totally done/useless to 1st pairing Dman (his coach thought the latter, at the very least).
#1 Dman on the team with the 7th highest GA in the league last season, though. I know that number isn’t all on Keith or the defence even but it should be part of the assessment imo.
Yes, definitely part of the assessment.
Small part… maybe.
Where was the puck?
My Holland summer To Do List, in chronological order;
Sign Larsson
Protect Jones – over Kassian and Archibald
Draft Cossa
Sign #1 Goalie and Derek Ryan (3C) on first UFA day.
Sign Alex Galchenyuk (2LW), Bobby Ryan (3RW) & Kulikov (Klefbom cover) in the following week.
Trade Kassian and Koskinen for a bucket of pucks at any time.
@draisaitlgifs
“If your team has been linked to an aging defenseman past his prime, you may be entitled to financial compensation”
The newer folks at this blog might not be grasping the severity of the ramifications of this potential transaction.
If we trade an actual asset for Duncan Keith and take on salary…then say Calgary goes out and replaces Gio by trading a second-rounder and a nothing prospect for Ryan Graves,
Toonces is back behind the wheel and we’re not headed in the right direction, at all. We’d also have the second-best manager in Alberta.
You’re calling Holland Toonces today, fair enough I and others assumed you were criticizing last night with the ‘chapters’ stuff, no? 🙂
No, I haven’t call Holland, Toonces today. 🙂
It’s predicated with an “if…”
No trade has yet transpired.
Alright, Toonces is just ‘in the conversation’ then.
With this much smoke on the battlefield watch for the surprise signing of Larsson and Hawks stuck with protecting Keith due to NMC
Ahh yes. That’s old school right there.
What should Kenny do if Stan Bowman is drowning?
Answer: Throw him an anchor!
Yeah theres a lot of gamesmanship going on. If Holland was cool with the asking price and Keiths contract this would all be done by now.
His salary is 2.1 mil and 1.5 mil. So this will require a third team like Ottawa, Seattle, Columbus to retain 25% which will cost less than 1 mil in real money and Chicago to retain 25%
Is Keith done like many posters are claiming? How many people watched him play this season. Seems to me that he can’t be horrible if the coach is playing him 23+ minutes per game. They need to make the cap hit work (not 5.5M x 2 years), of course, but he seems like a reasonable two year stop gap at 2LD.
Athletic article littered w Hawks fans defending Keith, which is a turn from what Buds fans were saying about Barrie.
Not saying I’m convinced, or that CHI partisans don’t have other reasons to peddle that story, but there’s a common thread where people don’t read a proposed trade as a dump so much as something for something, and for that reason balk at seeing one of their all-time favorites traded for say ‘just’ Neale and a buyout.
I have a lot of time for stats in assessing a player’s worth. Especially in a 32 team league with 31 farm teams plus numerous European leagues and junior leagues making visual assessments over time impossible to cover all of that territory.
That said I don’t think there are many Oilers fans who watch between 70 and 82 games a season of their team play who would argue for a strictly stats based assessment of any player where the visual did not line up.
There would be context, explanations, hedging, searching for an explanation that reconciled the opposing conclusions.
I guess this makes me a bit of a dinosaur on this board but for me I tend to trust fan bases. Yes, there are many who have no idea what they are watching but in most fan bases there emerge opinion leaders who sway the majority because of their history of being correct more often than they were wrong.
So when I have to choose between stats on a player I haven’t seen much of or haven’t seen for some time I tend to favour the view of those who watch the games 70 – 82 times a season.
You have to be a scout to do an assessment over the few games they get to see a particular player but by the time you have seen a guy 40-50 games in a row I think most of us have a pretty good idea of what we are watching.
The key is under no circumstances is it okay to pay market price when the player has made the choice of where he will play. In this case Chicago management has to take the best deal they can get or suffer the consequences of either being unable to sign some of their RFA’s and being unable to protect their best three defence men for the expansion draft. Being unable to move Keith also ties their hands in attempting to acquire Seth Jones. Holland is quite frankly holding all the cards. He may be able to get a much better deal acquiring Graves!
On your Kraken list above, the three guys I would target are Graves, Mayfield, and Dube. I would not trade the 1st for any of them. It needs to be a 2nd/3rd or 2nd/2nd or 2nd/prospect type of deal.
Ken Holland has gained our trust up to this point, but it’s exactly this type of deal that puts the fear of God into us.
Holland and Tippett love veterans. Holland has a history of signing them. The whole Keith scenario is perceived as “an opportunity”. The Oilers do need a 2LD on short term.
But the greatest part of the anxiety is what LT says it is:
“because Holland believes Keith is a second pair defenseman and it’s likely Keith is third pair.”
We’re about to see if analytics plays any role in the Oilers decision making.
Xanax anyone?
Come on Treliving, steal him away from us.
Here’s where ‘hockey men’ can show their worth 🙂
how many of us wanted to sign smith last season?…proved us all wrong…hmmm
While being true you do realize our major objection is the cost not the player. I’m reasonably sure that no one would object to Keith at net cost of one million.
I don’t think it’s fair to say ‘analytics’ agrees on this issue.
“Ken Holland has gained OUR trust”?
Speak for yourself.
Right now, Holland holds one of the most valuable assets in the league (cap space). He can use it to better his team by adding a good player whose current team can’t afford him or signing a free agent with it. His other option is to use it to justify making an otherwise bad move, which (depending on the deal of course) looks to be where he’s headed.
Maybe he thinks that in adding Keith he’s doing the former, not the latter.
Maybe the whole thing is an elaborate misdirection to give the impression that Klefbom is definitely not returning so he can leave him exposed in the expansion draft.
I definitely believe there could be value to having Keith on the team, but it hinges entirely on how we go about making it happen.
I think theres a reason this trade isnt done yet
Yes.
Another issue I have is, say you play Keith and Larsson as your second pairing. I would argue that both guys are quite vulnerable to outside speed.
Keith put up his best underlying numbers with Boqvist, who can really skate and move the puck. Larsson is the opposite.
I imagine some grinding is occurring.
DNBs article felt like a bit mixed messages. Oilers don’t want to take on money, Hawks don’t want to take back money. I didn’t get the impression Holland was going to take on anything close to Keith’s full salary (all of this with a grain of salt obviously).
Did you have something else in mind?