The next great Edmonton Oilers player will likely arrive via the draft. The McDavid-Draisaitl-Bouchard era will pass into the history books, the roster will struggle, and the organization will have ample opportunity to begin the build again. Please read this.
When the wand is finally broken, the Oilers will go back to the draft. I sincerely hope the club is more patient and uses the draft to its advantage. Management raced through the 2015-19 draft summers and missed out on some exceptional talent.
If you look at where the impact players come from, the top of the draft is the only place where luck isn’t a major factor. Even then it can go sideways, but you have a better chance drafting No. 1 through No. 5 overall. We will have plenty of time to discuss all of this next decade.
What I want to talk about today is this: Stan Bowman needs to get one of those players. Now. I don’t know where you get that guy, but he needs to arrive over the summer.
In 2022-23, the Oilers deployed six forwards with 2.00+ pts-60: Connor McDavid (2.71), Leon Draisaitl (2.41), Zach Hyman (2.37), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2.14), Warren Foegele (2.09), Klim Kostin (2.02). Evander Kane narrowly missed at 1.96, Ryan McLeod was 1.86 for the season. You can put together two scoring lines and most of a third with those skaters, and Jay Woodcroft did exactly that in 2022-23. The team scored 325 goals, the most since the Oilers were winning Stanley.
Last season, the Oilers had two. Leon Draisaitl 2.48 points-60, Connor McDavid 2.46 points-60.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk about the Oilers coaching and procurement, the VGK-Avs and Carolina-Montreal. Some Jays talk, Elks talk and more. Noon to 2pm,, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Why Edmonton Oilers should fade top free agents, and who to target instead
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7304826/2026/05/25/edmonton-oilers-free-agents-2026-plan-targets/
The reffing in this OT is so very modern NHL. An absolute joke. MTL should have had 4 or 5 PPs by now.
And then the refs don’t/can’t call the blatant too many against Mtl, cause they hadn’t called any of those penalties.
Mind boggling stupidity.
And no one sent Dobes the memo that if he dove head-first into the Carolina player in front, they’d call no-goal because his feet are in the crease, and somehow that negates who caused contact.
This league is so fortunate there’s no WHA equivalent today.
Atu Raty’s points per game by season
D+2 0.39 Liiga
D+3 0.79 Liiga
D+4 0.8 AHL
D+5 0.38 AHL (24-25, two teams)
D+6 1.12 Liiga
i like this signing, sounds like Hes fast and forechecks well. I hope Hes physical. Anyone know what happened in 24-25? Must have been injured?
I don’t think he had any significant injuries in 24/25, just sounds like he had a tough start and never really got going before or after he was traded. He played 65 AHL regular season games between the 2 clubs he was with, and a full season is 72 games so didn’t miss much time.
That was an blatant goalie run from Carolina there. Cannot believe that the zebras took a Hab to the box too for roughing.
Bettman would love to secure a SE team in the finals.
With all due respect, Carolina has outshot Montreal 62-25 in the past 2 games
To suggest that the stripes and Bettman are the reason?
Good thing the game isn’t decided by shots on net.
Teams that can only get 13 shots on goal in 3 1/2 periods are generally not successful.
— man the jays have had a lot of injuries this year. They would have an impressive starting 5 all on IL/ out for season…
— half their batters have little business being every day players in the majors.
— thanks for the extended wildcards they are still right in it !!
If I’m not mistaken, heading in to today, they had the same record as last year at this time…
— Jays first climbed to .500 early in May last year and bounced around there before shocking baseball and going on a tear at around this time. Not sure what you’re getting at? I observed their injuries.
— to borrow CMDs expression they are in a “pillow fight” so weak it’s been which is lucky
— to have lost:
Ponce all season
Francis all season
Berrios : rest of season
Biebs : lucky to maybe get 15 starts
Cease IL
Max : no show
Tiedman : couldn’t get out of spring
— That’s a fairly high end starting rotation
— Not to mention position players.
I was simply pointing out that the Jays had the same record at this time of year last year, they were 25-27 last year and 25-27 this year.
My point is there are 100+ games left and lots of time to continue to press up and I will continue to watch daily.
I think it’s pretty clear that Vegas was who leaked about the Oilers possible coach change. I hope the NHL gms play hard hall with Vegas who desperately needs cap relief
With Pietrangelo’s $8.8 million on LTIR they have about $13 million to work with.
If they can get Andersson inked to a reasonable deal, their other priority will be Dorofeyev.
They will likely try to move off the Adin Hill $6.25 million cap hit.
Not ideal but doable.
What would a value contract look like for Jack Roslovich?
Hes very fast. He was an excellent puck transporter.
Hes not the physical type nor found a home on special teams.
Hes good for 20 goals.
Could be an insurance contract. We do not have a whole bunch of 5×5 20 goal scorers.
1.5 per year with a plus one for the buffet.
If he brings my mother in law its no deal for the Oilers.
You of course need goals, but with players that don’t do much else I’m out. Connor’s comment about more than just a job nails it. They need a team of battlers that to even harder when it matters most
There’s a reason that Podz and Kap, even Janmark when he’s healthy do well in playoffs, and some guys are invisible. This year with so many injuries they needed 110% from everyone and it didn’t happen. I’d try something different given Ros isn’t a strong 2 way guy and avoids traffic
I do not see him as the missing ingredient. But I like him as a spare part if one of our speedier plays get injured. But agree, Jack wants paid and Oilers will be skint.
Oilers did have six 20-goal scorers and eight 18-goal scorers
I think Roslovic will look for 4+ years and $4MM plus (maybe $5MM plus)
I pencil Ike Howard in for his production and, yes, I do think he can replicate it if he gets some McDavid/Drai center minutes almost with Nuge minutes – should be more of the former but I don’t know who the coach is, etc.
I also think Ike will or at least is capable of getting those 20 goals.
Money aside, Roslovich is a transporter and we have missed that in the bottom six since McLeod.
As has been stated here, Roslovic adds value as a goal scorer – but it’s in the regular season. He disappeared in the playoffs. And his defensive game is not conducive to how they need to play to win games.
Casey Stengel once commented on a 3rd baseman on his team who hit a solo home run in the top half of the inning and in the bottom half, let one go thru his legs that allowed 2 runs to score as “not the kind of math that wins games”. This is Roslovic.
I thought he tried to battle a bit more in the playoffs but there hasn’t been a forward avoid the shooting lane on this team like that since Kassian.
Kinda wild that they had 8 guys with 18 or more and you could also say 8 guys with 9 or more and still be accurate and talking about the same 8 guys (and Roslovic is the only one leaving). I think we’ll see Howard plus two middle/top-six guys but I don’t see Roslovic signing another cheap deal unless he has to (although Kapanen might).
I read a comment from Marner that “Tortorrell gave us our swagger back” Any comment on this? What was up with Cassidy that he took the swagger away?
Doesn’t really make sense when Marner has been there for the only one season and wouldn’t know what ‘having their swagger’ would mean.
It is something I would be digging into though. I mean we want to hire a coach that another team just found to be lacking.
He’s propping up his head coach. The difference between Vegas-Edmonton is that Vegas chose the better plan B goalie.
It means that Vegas’ goalie is really good and Marner can’t tell the difference between coaching and winning making him happy.
I sometimes think people forget that these are mostly men in their 20s. They don’t interrogate what swagger means, they just know whether or not they feel it. Marner means it when he says it and I’m sure most of the team feels the same. It doesn’t really have to be more substantial than a superstition or a cliche that you mean despite how trite it may sound to others.
So much of coaching isn’t about tactics. So much of it isn’t even in your control, as it’s simply about how people respond to you. Torts makes them all willing to “run through a wall for each other,” whatever that means. That plus Hart = a total reversal of fortunes. Torts isn’t better than Cassidy but I don’t think the same thing would have happened with Cassidy.
This is why I supported replacing Knobs in the last 2-3 months despite thinking he was right for the team when first hired. He’s not the same kind of coach as Torts. He didn’t fire the team up so much as settle them down and put them back on track when they went off course, which was what a team looking for more consistency to take that next step needed. This season the team needed something different, someone to fire them up and unite them. Not that I think the Oilers would necessarily be in the same place as Vegas is had we done the same thing Vegas did. But I think it would have given them a chance. As is, they looked lost and uninspired all season and I had no hope for them entering the playoffs.
I think there are many ways to handle the head coach role. One is to hire someone for a decade, trust them, and prioritize their systems and process in terms of player acquisition and management. The other is to not get too attached to one coach–to understand it may be less about tactics than relationships, and that what matters most is only what the team needs to hear at that moment–and to change voices/approaches as the situation requires it.
We seen a team not only physically tired but mentally spent this year. The team looked stale all year and a bounce on a new coach might have had the same results as Vegas. I do believe K.K deserved this playoff as well as the 3 year contract money that goes along with his severance package. In saying that his reluctance to play younger friskier talent that Bowman had given him ultimately cost him his job.
Great post
There was a rift between players and coach following the playoffs last year. Well documented by pundits that follow the team.
I’d like to see those receipts. Please share.
Oilers doing excellent at the worlds.
Bouchard and Nurse playing great, leaders in TOI
Ekholm leader TOI
Samanski second TOI behind Seider
Howard 6th in TOI for USA putting up some points
Not that Bouchard excelling should be even notable but he’s been on the ice for 11-0 goals at 5 on 5 and 1-1 while on the PK (and he created the SH goal with a defensive stop, end to end rush and pass for a ROR tip in – granted the rush defence was HORRIBLE).
It must be his play with Nurse no?
Bouch is playing with Wotherspoon, Nurse with Whitecloud – mainly.
Ken Holland does not sound optimistic about Vegas permitting the Kings to speak with Cassidy.
I don’t think Vegas permits the Oilers to talk with Cassidy.
Looks like VGK will be in the SCF. Probably after whatever happens there Oilers will be able to talk with Cassidy. Can’t blame them for wanting to focus on one thing at a time.
Vegas’ front office has to negotiate parts of the contract for Cassidy to leave so this is legit. They also don’t have a coach for next season so it isn’t unreasonable that they want to ensure they have either someone better or Cassidy to use as leverage in negotiations with Tortorella.
It wouldn’t be the first time a team fired a coach and brought him back right away. And Paper Bags are back now!
Its a one word answer.
Yes or No
No contract talks till after. Its permission, thats all. Yes I can blame them, stupidest excuse ever and these antics should be remembered by all when Vegas try to do something.
Except that we have seen Vegas publicly state that they won’t deal with it until after the playoffs are over. Cassidy has inside information so it’s not “just permission” and why do you need permission now if you can’t hire him until the playoffs are over anyways?
Bednar
I think KH is a good man, does things that take the interest of players in mind and is ethical. I don’t think he is anywhere near the top half of GMs and is riding on laurels as dusty as his guide and record book
Well, the Oilers just signed Raty:
RELEASE: Oilers sign Aku Raty to one-year contract | Edmonton Oilers
This is not the one on the Cancuks – but a 25 year signed out of Liiga. Previously drafted by, and developed in, the Yotes org – does have one NHL game and assist.
Yes, I realize it’s not the VAN Raty, as per the link, but he’s young and cheap, something may work out with low risk/low cost.
Career-average 5.1 pts-60 makes him nearly 2x McDavid or a full McDrai, right?
I wasn’t posting for the general masses who may not click on the link – just providing information.
This is a pure Condors hire subject to a pop.
More Finns!! LT approves!
I bet Kappy does too. 🙂
IMO, some younger players that the Oilers should be looking at acquiring are:
Forwards:
Defencemen:
Goalies:
Hildebeast, Benoit and a first for Darnell Nurse, no retention.
I went to look up an old LT favourite potential sniper Arthur Kaliyev. Playing for Ottawa AHL team at point per game pace and 40 goals last season. So still a sniper.
Alas, his point per game still landed him a -13 for the season.
kind of reminds me of Howard, but hopefully Ike has a better turnout.
Can’t speak to Kiliyev but Howard worked his ass off to develop his 2-way and away from he puck game and his identification of when to take risk. He is not the same player that was seen in October/November (or in college) in that regard.
That kid has some significant baggage if im not mistaken
I still think no way we move Nurse. He has to waive, and I expect he stays this season. next it shifts to partial no trade. That’s when he gets moved. He and the core will look at this coming season as their Last Dance. One last kick together until real change happens.
Go get Kyrou. Re sign Murphy. trade for Cossa or another younger goalie (Devon Levi, etc.). Because of Jarry’s deal (any many other painfu deals) we need cap savings at goalie.
The coach is the issue and I do not think Cassidy gets allowed t coach us. I believe more and more it’ll be Laviolette. he gets results quickly, and that is what we need. Him or Cassidy will improve the team and accountability. Maybe it will eb Bednar!! lol.
I look at what is available for goalies at a decent price and not one is a major upgrade on what we could have coming from the Bake/ECHL. LT said we need to be more patient. Well they have been with these goalies, let’s at least give them a shot instead of losing them for nothing.
No way I would move Nurse even if he did waive.
Walman nor Ekholm cannot be reliable right now in health or play.
If we had Broberg, different story. But we don’t. We don’t have Kulak either. So no Nurse then injury or drop in play for Ekholm and/or Walman and next man up is ?
It would be Emberson or Regula.
I say cross that bridge when they come to it. Nurse is ultimately an anchor and – to hear Staples tell it – the worst performing D in the playoffs. Vegas wouldn’t hesitate one second if the option presented.
Vegas would grab Nurse
Not if he’s a poor playoff competitor.
Don’t listen to Staples trying to cherry pick stats. Like he did with Skinner, he puts the pressure on for a trade, then criticizes the results.
I am 100% sure Staples tries to evaluate the players honestly and without personal bias but he does formulate his opinion based almost solely off his contribution to scoring chances and fault on scoring chances against data – his project and that work has great value but he does not look beyond it, in my opinion.
Nurse/Murphy were the 2/3 best d-men in the playoffs behind Walman, in my opinion.
I am sure Staples is 100% not capable of NOT inserting personal personal bias into his evaluation of anything, and you can probably extend that to most of the population. When data is analyzed from experimental physists, they try to account for personal bias in those calculations, career sciencetists, becasuse they are very aware everyone applies bias. If you think Staples or me, or you don’t apply personal bias into all opinions, I would disagree.
Of course, I said “tries” in my post, so…. perhaps you would like to re-word?
I know Staples personally, I’ve worked with him on hockey blogs and podcasts, I don’t think he is overtly biased against Nurse was my point – I believe he is trying to be honest in his assessment but I think that his chosen data is limiting his ability to fully assess the playoffs.
Would be Carfagna, Stilman or Lepanen for LD
Ekholm just finished a season where:
1) he played 82 games;
2) had 41 points
3) was 12th among all d-men in 5 on 5 points
4) played 36% TOI vs. elites
5) had a 56% goal share and 56% expected goal share
After played 82 top pairing plus PK games (plus some playoffs), he’s playing well at the World Championships.
Yup, he’s old but is health an issue or are we projecting?
Ekholm is a warrior I can’t see him falling off a cliff in the next 3 years at 4 million may turnout to be a bargain. I just wish we had a young talented D that Ekholm could play with and mentor. Nashville were the kings of drafting then having older D looking after the young D. If they would have followed the same logic up front they would have won 2-3 Cups in the past 25 years.
I do expect some material regression in his game over the course of this next contract – I mean, he’s already 36 and its already started on the eye test.
Point was that he was still a legit top pairing guy last season which is actually ridiculously impressive at his age.
He’ll regress but $4MM is no longer a material contract and I think he will always be value unless injury really takes over – and it could.
Max Jones showed he could be an NHL player. He’s not the answer per say, but he might be a strong grinder on that fourth line. Hes go some skill. We need to build some much bigger, faster players into the mix.
Jones Sam Dach. Trent Sam Dach. Jones Trent Dach?
Throw in Clattenburg and we are no longer the whipping boys of our division. The refs are allowing Vegas to play Vegas hockey. Vegas is going to make the final without breaking a sweat.
Stan the plan is not gonna lead us out of this. He can only make the problem worse.
Also Hart was not gonna go to a hockey heavy market. He wanted to go somewhere he could be anonymous.
Last year happened and it can’t be ignored. It came with:
1) A material reduced engagement by many of the core players from the very start of the season – admitted at the last media avail
2) Coaching:
(a) that couldn’t get the core motivated to play structured hockey for more than a period at time (for more of the year)
(b) decisions that baffled through the season (starting with Drai/McDavid/Fred to start the year)
The team did start to come around late in the season but then injuries came, and they came hard, and they couldn’t sustain and were out early.
I don’t know what changes will be made to the roster but, with a couple re-signs (Murphy and likely Kap plus the RFAs) to start I think the incumbent team should be SO much better next season.
I don’t think there are going to be large roster changes. I don’t think any of Jarry, Nurse or Frederic are moved.
I personally think that much of the team improvement will come from a re-engaged commitment but the incumbent players to play structured hockey and the new coach providing the right knowledge, tactics and atmosphere for that. Combine that with the 5 months of rest, real ability to rest/re-charge/train and be ready and I think the incumbent roster will be much better next season.
Of course, there will be some changes – the likes of Rico, Roslovic and perhaps Dickinson will not be re-signed, for example.
I
see Howard as one new face that is a lock on the roster. Berezkin is a wild-card but he will definitely be in the conversation at camp.
I can see Cossa added.
Lets not look past the Tampa Bay Lightning – they were a contending team that fell short in the playoffs for a few years but were legit contenders and then lost in round 1, in fact, got swept by low end playoff team. They bounced back to win two straight Cups.
Losing in round 1 is not a sure sign of team on the back side.
I look forward to October and its likely to be a great season – I take McDavid and Drai at their season end words acknowledging their lack of commitment to the 2-way game and I see them recharged, reseted, re-set and fully commitment to next season.
Lets Go Oilers!
Agree
Core players get tired physically and mentally, this is why youth is so important to be there to carry the water. It is critical the coach manages core players plus builds a contributing team. Critical to build up everybody into a role.
Despite all the challenges I liked the team roster entering the playoffs. It was very good. but of course, Injuries crippled the roster.
Coaching not being able to adapt and trying to do same things was also a barrier to success.
Sometimes you can learn more from an outside looking in perspective. What do those final 4 teams have? What are they doing? We can do that, only better.
2(a) “core not motivated to play structured hockey…”
Yes and no.
To me, the poor habits were on display in both losing games and winning games. I took heat for criticizing the team during wins. “what’s the problem?” The problem was poor habits, systems, execution.
To my eye, the reason Oilers would win is their top talent would overcome the poor play to grind out a win. This deflected from fixing the problems because yes, they were winning just enough. But the fact that the talent alone overcoming poor play had to run out.
And the passengers have to get off the bus and help. It cannot be “the team will go as far as Connor will take them”
Connor and Leon take all the oppositions focus and effort. The third line, the role players should be feasting. The team needs to be earning 80% of the wins, with Connor pushing them over the edge. It cannot be the other way around.
Let’s just admit it. McD only cared about the Olympics last season.
I won’t admit something I don’t believe.
— I don’t know … probably accurate that there aren’t going to be massive changes.
— That said I’m not as comfortable with the premise that a longer off season coming back in best shapes of their lives and being coached up is enough
— McDrai is older so the nicks and bruises are inevitable.
— Plus it’s so “all in” next year.
— The “end” is nigh and we need a finesse
— If they could have closed on a Cup already this would have been a good year to secure a 2nd …
It’s not about “best shape of their lives” but about a real break – one where there is real time to re-set, to re-charge, to rest, mentally and physically. Then get back to training on a non-rushed cycle and, more than anything, its the mental re-engagement in game 1 of the regular season (and game 15 and game 42).
This group has started slow 3 years in a row and they understand the wear and tear of “chasing the season” from early, where every loss is catastrohpized and players are deployed and coach’s coach with a “must win” attitude every night.
The core acknowledged (1) they took the regular season for granted and (2) they were not close to good enough on the ice with their overall games (2-way games).
Yup, its “all in” and its at the point where the core of this team has to realize what that means – its not “trying harder” it “trying better and smarter” and the new coach will require it and their head spaces will be ready for it.
This is a very real thing. Coming into the season with players still out from the season before, players just barely back to training, and training camps having no real time to get things together has meant the Oilers have been bailing water to start the season every year. Early losses lead to panic trades, young guys getting benched and guys coming back from injury to soon or playing through new ones.
The three teams with the most playoff games the last 4 years (EDM,FLA,DAL) either didn’t make the playoffs this year or lost in the first round. Tampa Bay went to three straight finals and has been out in the first round 4 years in a row.
Having the time to be healthy and prepared is going to matter this year.
If that’s the case shake up that core. That’s not exceptable.
Mah – I’ll let Connor and Leon work through it.
— this is a very healthy and robust projection
— to each their own. I’m skeptical but let’s see
— last season I felt they was for too much projection slotting guys above their precedence. So far I’m seeing a lot more of this off season over-slotting IMO.
— It was alarming they went into season with the same goalie tandem last year Are they running back this tandem and hoping for better coaching and 5×5 and guys committing to being 200 foot players promise this time I mean it for real and the goalie tandem will be good enough.
— they are a priced for perfection roster requiring a bunch of guys to outperform who the new coaching staff is going to sort out.
— Florida won 2 cups and went to 3 in a row. So not comfortable with the attribution of much to how hard they have worked.
The elephant(s) in the room are the Ducks and Sharks in the Pacific and Utah, perhaps Nashville and St. Louis in the Central.
With the move to an 84 game regular season, teams will play 4 games against division rivals and 3 games against conference opponents.
As those teams continue to improve, standings points will become harder to get and even bottom feeders like Vancouver, Calgary and Chicago should be better.
Yes, we get it, every competitor has tons of young players, tons of assets, tons of cap space – they are all set up to leave their Oilers in the dust, just like STL since the offer sheets, just like LA with the deepest blue chip prospect group of all time…….., etc., etc., etc.
OP, I’m wanting to be with you on this glass half full perspective. I just don’t trust team leaders to live/play up to their words, or mgt/owner to not be driven by panic (aka “win now,” “all in,” “McD Era clock ticking”). After the blame/fire the coach (after the blame/fire the goalie) debacle my cup is half empty.
What could change that? Evidence that the club is building beyond peak-McD. That would get me excited.
Would add that McDavid and Bouchard set career highs in TOI with Drai not far off his career high. Less of a concern for Bouch who’s much younger and different position. McDavid played 105mins more than the next closest forward in MacKinnon, 3mins/game more than Kucherov, and 2mins/game more than Celebrini.
Eventually something was going to crack, as it turns out it was his foot.
It’s really something how many are blatantly discounting burn out. It’s happens in so many professions yet (smart) people are completely discounting it with athletes.
Also of interest, is that both Colorado and Vegas had down years and are back in the WCF. Why are so many adamant that this can’t be the Oilers?
Colorado has fallen short of expectations in every year of the Bednar and MacKinnon eras except their cup year (which did happen and they did win). This year is the 2nd year past the 2nd round in a the decade. They have not played near as much hockey over the last number of years or had summers near as short.
I go back to the Tampa example of their first round exit (sweep) right before they won two cups.
Leon’s other best friend will be the next great Oiler.
Oooh. Pasta.
Ceci?
Unless you plan on revamping the PP, it is pointless to bring in someone like Kyrou. Focus on young guys like Kent Johnson, who might benefit from a change in scenery.
This is very accurate. If the same 5 guys are going to play the whole 2 minutes on every PP, you aren’t going to see big scoring numbers from non-PP players.
Jeff Skinner is a great example of this. 16 EVG the year before he’s an Oiler, 16 EVG with the Oilers. His 24G the year before included 8 PPG which makes $3M reasonable for a guy that doesn’t play defence but not so much when it’s just the 16G.
Kyrou had 14G/32P and EV last year and 4G/14P on the PP. His 46 points looks bad compared to his $8.5M but really, really bad compared to 32 points. Kyrou has scored 55P, 49P, 46P, 53P, and 32P at evens his last 5 seasons. If you put him on the PP, he’s got a lot of value, trade for him. Do it now. If you won’t put him on the PP, he’s going to (unfairly) look like a bust.
This is part of the issue with Nurse’s contract. He got paid like he was going to become the PP1 D-Man after Barrie left but Bouchard became that guy so Nurse is paid for something he doesn’t do.
Same applies for Howard if you have no plans of him being a shooter on the PP then
trade him while he still has value.
I kinda hate that you’re right 😜
On his ELC he doesn’t need to be a PP shooter. His even strength contributions will be enough. Kyrou at his cap hit needs to contribute on the PP.
Hopefully Howard increases his value over time. He doesn’t have much value yet.
You like the kid so much but don’t think he can produce at 5 on 5?
Spoiler: He can
That’s not what he said. He said he’s not gonna have value without PP time. Kailer Yamamoto is a 30-35 Point even strength player that is small and keeps signing sub-$2M contracts because no team is giving him PP time.
Will Howard score at 5v5? Yes. So did Jeff Skinner. So did Yamamoto. So did Jack Roslovic. About 200 players a year score 30+ points at 5v5 and just under 200 will be forwards. Of those, only 35 had 5 points or less on the PP and only 10 hit 40 points with 5 or less PP points.
If Howard doesn’t get PP time, the league (and Oilers) will treat him like Jeff Skinner 2.0. If they give him PP time, he’s suddenly an incredibly valuable 50 point winger. If they don’t, he’s Yamamoto/Skinner/Roslovic. Nobody said he couldn’t score.
I don’t care about what the league treats him as, I care about what he can do on the Oilers, this coming season and in future season.
Opining to either play him on the PP right now or trade him implies no value to the team meaning either he can’t produce at 5 on 5 or that 5 on 5 scoring isn’t valued.
More than anything, right now, this team needs more players that can score at 5 on 5 as the PP unit is still here and still the best in NHL history. I do see them getting less time and, of course, Hyman and Nuge are in their 30s and, over time, there will be more PP1 minutes for other.
Howard has immense value producing at 5 on 5 on his ELC and, him not getting big PP numbers to start will be helpful for his second deal.
He’ll get his PP time and production in due course, of course, presuming he continues to develop.
Who is a high-pedigree young asset who has struggled but can potentially find a way to contribute in a hurry?
Kent Johnson?
Shane Wright?
Marco Kaspar?
Nate Danielson?
Imagine landing a young second-line centre in a Darnell Nurse trade.
This is a good aisle to shop in. Couple defenders I’ll add to your list.
kesslering(has been talked about as has… zellweger
Mason Lohrei
If Murphy is signed I could see Lorhei being a good fit on a pairing.
Kent Johnson and Michael Kesselring are a couple that interest me (although, unless we think Kesselring can step on the 2RD nightly, I’m not sure where he fits unless they move Emberson and I love his defending and PK for a nominal cap hit).
I don’t see these as Nurse trades but possible options to add.
I do wonder if a Emberson/ Ekholm pair could work as a tough minute second/ third pair. With Kesslering on a second/ third pair getting some easier minutes depending on game situations.
Also as you’ve mentioned regula could be a factor. Somewhat less than ideal going into the season with an unsure second pair but it does leave room for growth and opportunity.
kesslering / regula / Emberson. May the best man win.
Columbus LD – Werenski, Provorov, Mateychuk
Seattle LD – Dunn, Lindgren, Evans
Detroit LD – Edvinsson, Chiarot, Wallinder, Buium
Nurse?
Dunn has one more year, Lingren had a 43.2%GF%, 43%xGF% and 9 points last year, and Evans isn’t at 200 games.
Edvinsson isn’t at 200 games, Chiarot is at 43%GF% 45%xGF and 15 points, Wallinder hasn’t played an NHL game and neither has Buium.
If you’re gonna troll, maybe do better than this?
Nurse has had better than 50% in XGF% every year for 6 years, 2 trips to the finals, and puts up 30+ points a year. He skates well, hits, blocks shots and plays 20+ minutes a night on a pretty good team.
Nurse’s contract pays him about $7M a year in cash from here on out. It’s not unrealistic that a deal could happen even though it probably won’t.
Maybe examine what is driving you to rain on other people’s fun?
Love the direction.
But I trust Nurse more than Walman or Ekholm right now.
Ekholm just finished a season where:
1) he played 82 games;
2) had 41 points
3) was 12th among all d-men in 5 on 5 points
4) played 36% TOI vs. elites
5) had a 56% goal share and 56% expected goal share
I know, Evan Bouchard is a top 5 d-man that floats all boats but Mattias Ekholm just had a great year in aggregate even if he looks a bit slower and makes more mistakes than 3 years ago.
Great post LT, the forward numbers bring clarity.
Maybe the bad karma strikes the VGK now – I’d love to see them blow this series.
Unfortunately with injuries on the Avs side it’s unlikely but would love to see it!
Vegas burns themselves up….only to lose the finals in heartbreak.
Torts back to his usual disliked personality but no coaches want to go to Vegas.
There we go.
LOL Vegas is actually getting healthier.
He needs to find Carter Hart.
Load up on young, high ceiling goalies. See who wins.
Shame that redemption arc isn’t leading the Oilers to the Cup right now. Everything lined up just right for our town and they didn’t bother grabbing their place this year.
IMO, that means grabbing Cossa and Levi and letting them battle it out next year. High ceiling, young, they’ve played high pressure situations before, but never been given a real chance in the NHL. I’d pay the price and have a cheap tandem for the next 3 years at least, and you could even put Jarry in the AHL to split with Jonsson if you want an insurance policy.
Finding a hot goalie is like pissing in the wind.
I disagree LT. I understand why people get there – especially math folk – but there’s a combo of stats+eye+state of mind check that can reveal what they are.
They are not voodoo.
They are 90% mental.
Agreed. I think a part of that 90% is what Woodley describes as the under investment by many teams in that area on coaches. He says that you could go get the best if you will just pay them
The guy that coached Dobes up and helped him get the bad parts sorted out – and there were some – was offered a job by Detroit and turned it down bcs of pay
Just like skaters at the end it’s up to the player to do it, but giving them everything to help is a no brainer for a team with cash and expectations
Investment in coaches and psychologists and others, yes. And I’m not talking about sports psychologists.
The fact that they signed Jack Campbell without understanding where he was personally, as a for instance, is egregious. Lucic too. There have been other, more minor issues with players, but those two leap off the page. Neither person was able to be anywhere near their athletic peak because of non-hockey things. No excuse to miss those when you’re forking over millions of dollars.
Again – multi-billion-dollar organization operating like your local corner shop rather than protecting the massive investments it has made.
Agree, but, most of your comment doesn’t really apply to current management team. Chiarelli (Lucic), Schwartz, and Holland are long gone.
Bowman picked up Ingram AFTER doing his due diligence regarding state of mind and readiness to return to the NHL. Got him for free. That was a mega win that is often overlooked.
Now. Go do it again, Stan. Several times, across the lineup. Please and thanks.
Mike Smith / Koski combo needed to exist for a couple years longer.
We should have just signed Carter Hart when the opportunity was there to do so.
Nobody is taking about his involvement with the Hockey Canada scandal now … but everyone was clutching the pearls about it at the start of season.
Instead Bowman zeroed in on Jarry, didn’t leave himself enough cap space to absorb the contract (who the Pens would have given away for free at the start of the season), and traded the equivalent of 2 second round picks out the door, after backing himself into a corner with Stu and Pickard … a tandem that literally everyone knew needed to be improved.
Incompetent is not a strong enough word to describe this guy.
One thing to remember is Hart’s regular season sv% & GAA with VGK are almost identical to Stu’s with Edmonton this season, and Stu had better GSAX and GSAA. What has worked with Hart is having a coach for the playoffs who knows and believes in him and he has responded accordingly. Would he have benefitted from that in Edmonton?
lots of people are talking about the scandal now. It’s literally all over the place. Hart publicly stated he didn’t want to play in Canada. Very specifically because it will never really go away.
Karma is a b*tch.
1) Should have signed Hart? From solid accounts, that was not an option for the player.
2) The main reason that Vegas was part of the crap of the Pacific was their goaltending under-performing, Carter Hart being a big part of that.
He would have been run out of Edmonton.
No.
The main reason was that 2C William Karlsson and top 6 winger Mark Stone missed significant time with injury.
That forced Mitch Marner to play C where he is not as productive as when he plays on the wing.
All 3 players have been superb in the playoffs.
Kinda like oilers second line centre and top line winger missing significant time to injury.
Not really.
Vegas wasn’t eliminated in the first round.
Its wild that one can cite a couple of injuries to Vegas for a poor season but simply disregard the Oilers’ injuries in the first round (and during the season).
Good Grief!
William Karlsson missed 68 games.
Mark Stone missed 22.
Connor McDavid missed none.
Leon Draisaitl missed 17.
These are not the same.
Zack Hyman (of 31 goals and 52 points in 58 games) missed 24.
At least try and be somewhat honest.
He tried ! That’s the best he can do ;)…
Eichel (of 27 goals and 90 points) missed 8.
Brett Howden – missed 28
Reilly Smith – missed 23
But still Vegas won the division and appears to be headed to the cup final.
Hart said he didn’t want to play in Edmonton
“You gotta admire that Vegas team….carpet pull on their long time coach with 8 games to go, new coach has them humming..” “And then not allowing that old coach to talk to other teams….” Now likely to go to the finals, that’s a good organization
“Those Oilers are a clown show, trying to talk to a new coach before firing the old coach. Such disrespect. What a debacle” That GM doesn’t know what he’s doing.
Very true. Also, don’t mention injuries or goalie save percentages. It messes up the narrative 😜
So now the coach is gone we gotta aim on the GM now? Man if this were an exchange i could make a killing selling ‘fire this one now’ futures.
After the GM who’s next? Do i need to stock up on goalie coach again? I’m already buying low on Jeff Jackson. Nurse market is overtraded so might dip into some Bouch hate to sell in October while continuing to average cost goalie complaints with no solutions.
They’re a clown show because Vegas is being a clown show to the point the coaches union is getting involved and suddenly got a hot goalie while playing a broken Avs team.
Wait….I thought we hated Foegele, Kane, Kostin, McLeod…..
Who said that? I’ve never heard anyone say they hated those players, and in fact most lamented their losses (Foegele not so much, but everyone else was a sore loss at the time, even if justified)
I lamented the loss of all of those except for Foegele… I think Holloway would have been a great successor to him. *spits
Little bit tongue in cheek. They were not hated, but we are fickle.
All but 1 of those player faded after those seasons. We received quality, and likely a more substantial offensive player for Mcleod.
I can’t think of anyone who hated Kostin.
Was Kostin fading? I seem to remember him leaving because someone offered him a bag. Was he someone we didn’t want back?
To me Kostin was a role player. He done so well in Edmonton because we needed these role players so badly. We need these guys but tend to underestimate them. Or the complete opposit and over pay them!!
I said faded after that season. He scored 3 goals the year after his 11 with us. I would consider that fading. The point was they mostly aren’t missed even though that snapshot showed quality for that season.
Foegele and McLeod didnt fade..
I mentioned Mcleod specifically. Foegele did nothing for 3 straight playoffs.
Back to my summer break, I can’t read it for you.
Foegle was awful in LA this past season.
McLeod was awful in the playoffs for Buffalo.
As were a bunch of LA players under Hiller. He was excellent in LA the year before and after he was traded to the Sens.
Yes, he was better as a Sen but faded on the playoffs – no points the four games and 0-1 goals at 5 on 5.
Foegele, McLeod and Kane did get quite a bit of hate for various reasons but I think Kostin was just a question of money. That 2022-23 roster was wild because they scored 325 goals with Derek Ryan in a tie for 6th on the Oilers with 13G. We did have 13 players with 10G or more (McD with 64 and Drai with 52) that season. It’s kind of wild to look at. Even Stuart Skinner was good.
Hence LT’s resurrection of Woodcroft.
LT states, “Stan Bowman needs to get one of those players.”
This feels like a reasonable assertion, but is it reasonable to expect the Lesser Bowman to accomplish this? Even Greater Bowman would have struggled for a solution here. I fear the window is quite narrow at this point.
The Greater Bowman was mostly a coach or Consultant so not sure what this means.
There’s always solutions, be creative, that’s what the money is for.
I think if they do this right, the actual window is wider than if they ran everyone back last year. There was massive turnover and they moved from the oldest team in the league to the 7th youngest.
97 is still winning Art Ross’ and now he’s got a summer off from the most hockey he’s ever played in his life.
The coach, who, while I still think was smart, lost the room and is gone.
Opportunity abounds. You still have the best player in the world. That’s a great start.
Coach or GM position notwithstanding, the elder Bowman showed himself to be competent. My concern is his son shares a name but not much more.
“Coach or GM position notwithstanding”
So because what I said makes no sense, it doesn’t matter. Alright.
“the elder Bowman showed himself to be competent”
And so did Barry Trotz then he took the GM chair and was out faster than a wet fart after a Tims Farmers wrap.
Blood aint got nothing to do with it. The team needed a reset. It was bumpy. I like our future better than if we ran the 24-25 team back.
That’s fine, but do you trust younger Bowman to plan that future? I don’t believe he’s up to the task.
Unlike many here, I like most of what GMSB has done. The black marks I have against him are caving to the endemic panic in Oilerville around goaltending and coaching. I believe this panic is owner-driven (the pattern I see is at least as old as the McD Era, so not just on GMs). I like the small adds: Podkolzin, Kapanen, Dach, Jones, Emberson, Ingram, the Eiro and college signings. I’m hopeful for Fred and Walman contributing in the medium and long term. Again, w the exception of two panic moves that may be more owner-driven than GM-driven, I like what seems to be a more patient, less “win-now” approach.
I agree with the many here who view this past season as a transition. Many pieces are in place for an interesting and successful season ahead, success as a build, even if not a Cup season.
Stan Bowman has three Stanley cups to his name FYI.
Peter Chiarelli times three.
The incumbent team is so much better than their performance this past season – it started early wth a lack of give a shit and continued all season long with injuries debilitating a potential run.
Lots of underperformances with players playing through injury/slow recoveries (Walman, Frederic and, from accounts in the 2nd half, Nuge).
Goaltending was marginal/OK to poor but largely a function of the lack of commitment to structure in front of the goalies – when the team played well, the goalies played well – the team didn’t try care to play well until it was too late and they got too hurt.
That will change with the clear acknowledgement from the top players and the new coach hire.
Lets Go!