The NHL trade boards are out for summer, and I always look at them to see what might be out there for the Oilers. There are many times in a season when I wish old Glen Sather was still in charge of the team, and this is one. Slats was always looking for stray cats and lost causes to rescue. I still look at trade boards and free-agent lists as if Sather were in charge.
For instance, Sather would look at the current list and ponder names like Mason McTavish. He would see a good young player with one downbeat season, and note the impressive underlying numbers in areas like expected goals. Maybe he wouldn’t value McTavish for the fancies, but Sather had a sixth sense about young players who were bothersome to their current general managers.
He would see the growth potential in Simon Nemec, and find a way to insert him into the Edmonton lineup. While Oilers general managers from Peter Chiarelli through Ken Holland and now Stan Bowman are adding older veterans and signing free agents to no movement clauses that guarantee pain in later years, Sather pursued the struggling youths with abandon. It didn’t always pay off, but when it did, the Oilers thrived.
The player I think Sather would acquire this summer? Shane Wright of the Seattle Kraken. His Puck IQ numbers are quality, led by this:
- Elites: 195 mins, 48 Pct DFF; 8 Pct Rel
I think Sather would acquire Wright and run him on right wing with Nuge (third line) with an idea about playing him on the Leon Draisaitl tough minutes line when he gets comfortable. He’d eventually return to center, and I think he will have a quality career in the days to come.
Maybe I’m being too hard on Stan Bowman, he might value Wright and try to trade for him. He brought in Vasily Podkolzin. However, he also brought in Trent Frederic, who I love as a player but that contract is too much for too long for a player of his type.
I suspect the Oilers will bring in a couple of 32-year olds via free agency, attach a no-movement clause on a five-year deal and call it a day. It is not the truth and the way. It is not especially creative. It is decidely unsexy. The ‘Veteran General Manager’s Playbook’ is all about getting the proven guy, even if there’s not much tread left on the tire. Sather wasn’t like that, he used his imagination and tried to solve problems with a 10-year solution. Miss those days.
On the Lowdown today, Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will be our feature guest at 1pm. We’ll talk NBA Game 1, NHL Game 2 of their respective finals and discuss the Oilers as we get closer to finding out the name of the next coach. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
LT, I listened to some of your show yesterday and have to say I agree wholeheartedly on your Boone Jenner take. Your co-host seemed to think he’s the next coming, but from what I can see there are tons of red flags:
Friedman on the pod this morning, for the first time, indicates that the Oiler may decide to stop waiting for Cassidy. He also opined (personal opinion/spitballing) that maybe the Oilers look at a coach for one year – I don’t know what that would look like.
I really hope all this malarky comes back to bite the Knights square on the ass.
Vegas blowing the multi goal third period lead and losing is not annoying.
Yeah. Take that Darth Vaders
Nurse, Howard and 1st for Larkin?
Then sign Laine on a cheap one year prove me deal?
Would rather get a good goalie.
Don’t imagine Larkin would come to Canada.
Laine may be the worst defensive forward in the league and is completely reliant on the PP to score now. He would make the team worse, in my opinion.
It’s just wild the names I’m hearing on podcasts. I wouldn’t touch Laine with ten foot pole.
Spector’s article is journalistically dishonest.
//The Edmonton Oilers aren’t concerned about the availability of Darnell Nurse heading into Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final.
Though Nurse did not participate at all in practice at Rogers Place on Wednesday, head coach Kris Knoblauch told reporters that the defenceman will be good to go on Thursday against the Florida Panthers.
“We haven’t considered not having him for next game,” the bench boss said. “He’ll be ready to play.”
Nurse appeared to suffer an injury in Game 2 after taking a hit from Panthers forward Evan Rodrigues. He was on and off the bench for the remainder of the game but was limited in the shifts he took, finishing with just 4:20 TOI.//
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/oilers-knoblauch-provides-injury-updates-on-nurse-kane/
Nurse’s ice time was reduced because of injury. If they contemplated removing him from the lineup, it was because of injury.
https://www.nhl.com/news/darnell-nurse-leaves-game-2-of-stanley-cup-final-for-oilers-with-injury
SUNRISE, Fla. — Darnell Nurse did not practice Wednesday after he sustained an undisclosed injury in the Edmonton Oilers’ 4-1 loss to the Florida Panthers in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena on Monday.
After the game, Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch said he didn’t expect the 29-year-old defenseman to miss any time.
“He’s getting looked at right now,” Knoblauch said. “He was on the bench. Yeah, I think he’ll be good to play, but he’s getting looked at, so I don’t have an update.”
Knoblauch did not have an update on Nurse’s status Tuesday but on Wednesday said he expects him to play Game 3 at Rogers Place on Thursday (8 p.m. ET; ABC, ESPN+, CBC, TVAS, SN).
Nurse was hit in the corner by Panthers forward Evan Rodrigues at 8:16 of the first period and left several seconds later. He played four shifts in the first period, the final one lasting 13 seconds.
Nurse returned to the bench in the second period but only played three shifts over the final two periods.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5560035/2024/06/13/darnell-nurse-oilers-injury-stanley-cup/
Good eye – that was the hip flexor right?
Everyone is hurt in the playoffs. you’re cherry picking … he was bad that entire playoffs.
I noticed that no one is criticizing the article in the Journal that Kurt Leavins wrote today, also advocating in favour of shipping Nurse out (if the right deal comes along).
Nurse was like plus 5 or 6 with Broberg in that final series. After being a near record minus before that.
I looked it up Nurse AT 5v5 was 5-4 goals in 2023-24 against FLA and 3-4 in 2025. Not the problem at least at 5v5.
McDavid, interestingly in 2025 against FLA was 3-8 goals, Leo 4-9.
4-2 goals, 30% expected goal.
We know that pairing got caved in the playoffs but did run some good luck (which matters).
Broberg has been on a “good luck streak” for more than two years now. The sample size is now large enough to suggest the goal suppression against Florida was not accidental or random.
We were talking about Nurse/Broberg in the SCF and the posted stats which were wrong.
Oh no, not Spec! Gasp!
#SARCASM
The article doesn’t say when, during the finals, they were contemplating healthy scratching Nurse. It’s entirely possible they were considering scratching him after game 1 of the finals, which would’ve been warranted because up to that point in the playoffs, Nurse had posted the following:
GP: 19 | G: 0 | A: 3 | PTS: 3 | 5v5 GF: 9 | 5v5 GA: 23 | 5v5 GF%: 28.13
This Vegas winning is beyond annoying.
2C William Karlsson returns from season-long injury.
Marner then moves to wing’
Howden joins them on a dominant second line.
Mark Stone healthy.
Boom.
Oh…and Carter Hart.
.925
Just because it made me laugh when i read Anaheim’s section regarding zewelleger
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7309583/2026/05/29/nhl-restricted-free-agents-trade-candidates-offseason/
“Anaheim has $40.5 million in projected cap room, but Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier are both RFAs in line for huge raises. Carlsson and Gauthier could eat up roughly half of that room if they sign long-term deals. From there, the Ducks would have roughly $20 million in cap space, but with Mintyukov (RFA), John Carlson (UFA), Jacob Trouba (UFA) and Radko Gudas (UFA) all on expiring contracts.”
Like seriously.
You had shiney side of what 30.3 million with what RFA’s signed out of cutter, carlsson, zewelegger, mintyuokv or something accounted for with maybe they sign carldon for 9 million x2?
Reality is:
20 maybe 24 million left gauthier/carlsson signed.
Carlson 2×9 so generous 15 million left
Trouba
Gudas
Harkins
Viel
Zewelleger
Mintyukov
Even successfully mactavish as trade bait leaves them at best 21 million and add mactavish replacement needed to list.
Aka not overly much more cash “free” than average higher tier playoff teams give amount of roster unsigned.
If you’ve ever watched Shoresy… or haven’t, irrelevant really, just like you… but you’re basically the trash can that the coach kicks as he yells “F|_|Ck!NG EMBARRASING”… you don’t even know enough to know how mortifying embarrassing you’re schtick is.
I’m honestly sad for you. *hugs*
I don’t see his comments anymore but I love this!
and bust…..
Carolina D should take a penalty when they are losing a 1-on-1 battle that leads to a breakaway. Two soft plays by D on Howden. The Canes have an elite PK. They should use it rather than allow breakaway chances.
Howden is pulling a Pasani.
As long as his team loses the last game as well.
Isnt it fun to blow up the Edmonton Oilers? Fans and media want management to “do something” and win trades yet are happy to sink the club and player values whenever they can.
Vegas pulls the rug on Cassidy, dirty move. Somehow Oilers come out bad guys with Knobluach. Angers the coach, breaks the relationship that maybe was not good but they had options.
Nurse trade news comes out. Angers the player, starts a rift that likely makes his play and teams play worse.
“Its my job to report” Sure, but you are purposely antagonistic and oppositional in regard to the teams goals. In other words, your not helping. Just lock these guys out of the rink.
They want news, just so they can feed their self interest.
Im sure an “anonymous” former coach just called up Specter to gripe about Nurse.
Crap this makes me angry. Try to build a team by criticizing and ostracizing players. Its not going to work well, you cannot build a team this way. Im changing my mind to Tortorella who would protect players and tell media to get stuffed.
Im trying to think of who the coach was. They mentioned high pressure games. His coaches during playoff years:
Todd McLellan/Jim Johnson
Tippett/Playfair
Woodcroft/Manson
I assume Woody/Knoblauch era are too recent to do it. I will guess Playfair/Tippett era based on pretty much nothing, but they are Western Canadian and seem like guys Spec would keep in touch with
It may not even be someone from the NHL level, “previous coach from earlier in Nurse’s career” could include OHL and AHL. Who knows, it could be his Timbits coach.
With the news that Dylan Larkin has requested a trade from the Red Wings, Sather would have found a way to trade Nurse for Larkin.
Their defence is absolutely atrocious outside of Seider. They should be one of the teams actively pursuing Nurse.
Yup.
Nurse $2m retained + 2nd rounder to Detroit.
Larkin to Edmonton.
I think that’s reasonable for both teams.
Obviously this assumes that Larkin controls the process and says he wants to be traded to Edmonton, because why wouldn’t he.
I’d say a later pick and straight up on money. Larkin is a 2nd tier type player, Nurse is close to half his points and is a durable high minutes big fast tough D, they have cap space
A second tier player good enough to play significant minutes on the US gold medal team.
Yeah sign me up please.
Nurse is a 4th tier player who would have a hard time cracking Finland’s roster.
Flipping Nurse for Larkin would be a coup.
Take off your homer glasses:
It would be one of the biggest coups of the salary cap era.
Your premise may be correct but not need to exaggerate – Nurse would be competing for top 4 on the 2026 Finish d-group that included a d-man playing in Zurich this season.
No it is not. Detroit’s defense is actually in reasonable shape, with plenty of young D ready to transition into the NHL.
Detroit’s problem is scoring, not D.
They also need to get their goaltending sorted out.
While they certainly have potential solutions in Cossa and Augustine, they may not be quite ready for prime time.
Minnesota could help with that.
Is young D trying to transition to the NHL generally what teams that are desperately trying to take the next step and make the playoffs after years and years of not making it generally want/need/look for or do they look for experienced d-men who have been there many many times?
Larkin is only 29 I can foresee Holland and Yzerman making a deal at the draft table. Bowman needs to get his edge back after being reinstated for falling on the sword for the Hawks owner. It’s time Bowman makes a good ole boy trade of dollars-sweetner (Howard) going out for dollars coming in.
lol, No kidding. I do believe Larkin is in the camp that wants nothing to do with coming to Canada.
We don’t need Larkin. We have the best two Cs in the league. What’s the point? Where does he fit on the PP?
Those are silly questions to ask if there is ever an opportunity to acquire a player of Larkins quality.
Where does Larkin fit? How about everywhere and anywhere.
Where does he play? How about LW with McDavid. Instead of loading up McDavid and Drai 5 on 5.
Where would he play on the PP? How about replacing Nuge and make the PP less predictable by having another shooter.
There is no bad place to have a Larkin on your team.
Just put nurse on the 2nd line and he will be an excellent forward. Done. Easy peasy
Don’t forget, Walman had an awful year. Are you sure that we have a 2 pair left hand defenceman? Actually, are you sure we have a 1st pair defenceman?
I mean, I like our defence core, but there is risk of injury and age.
Ya i see what your saying with a weak leaf side D. But common he could be a Dustin buffaolin
A healthy Walman should be so much better.
Jake Walman had a terrible season – well below expectations and his established levels of play. His mobility seemed highly compromised and he was bad at both ends of the ice – and his decision making was poor as well.
I truly think this was highly related to injury. He was injured early and missed the beginning of the season, likely prior to being 100% and was playing through some LBI, got hurt again, and it continued.
He was better later in the season and I believe the team’s best d-man in the playoffs.
A healthy Jake Walman is a very good player, a legit top 4 d-man, probably a legit #3 that can play in the top pairing with a good partner – worth his new $7MM.
We did not see that d-man last year and, hopefully, with 5 months off, he’s 100%, in great shape and raring to go this coming season – they need him to help spell some Ekholm minutes and to likely play some right side (he was very good on the right side as an Oiler in 2024/25 after acquire, shit this past season).
Of course, injuries are a thing with him and it’s probably overly-optimistic to expect him to be healthy all year. At this point, if he’s hurt, he can’t play through.
The one note of caution I’d add is that Jake Walman doesn’t have a very long track record as a top-4 dman in the NHL. He’s had a few lower-end top-4 seasons but really only one knockout unquestionable top-4/serviceable top-2 season in his entire career. That plus age is why 7 x 7 was risky. Jake Walman hasn’t been the dman you’ve described for long enough to have high confidence he’ll be so again next year. But I do hope you’re right and continue to be for another 5 years.
He literally gets hurt every year. I don’t think he’s ever played a full season and often misses 20 games plus.
If he doesn’t want to go this summer, where he can control where he goes still, Why not try him at F. Nurse isn’t smart enough to process the game when he carries the puck up ice or so it seems way too often. Stick him on the 3rd line and crash and bash in front of the net or in corners. He can skate and hit (/when he feels like it).
Too all the posts on this on Walman being better then nurse and then debating injuries. The one positive stat is nurse is very little injury prone. Which is somthing to consider. Im very open to try him as forward. What if he scores 50 points. That could be something. Its a positive vs the bleeding if edmonton could find a suitable replacement 🤔
I also think Sather wouldn’t have hesitated to trade Bouchard to balance the team out.
I think Sather would have gotten a deal for a top 6 forward, A 3rd line RHC and another top 4 RHD in a famous 3-1 deal.
NHL a little different now.
Why the down votes? He traded Paul Coffey in his prime over a few dollars
Sather didn’t trade Coffey until money became a major issue. He and Coffey didn’t agree on some things, but Satherwas absolutely able to evaluate talent like Coffey.
A trade is a trade & In doing so, he balanced the team, used Mantha to flip for Acton & made the Edmonton Oilers better, the 1988 Edmonton Oilers are arguably the best team ever & they gave up the better player.
This is something that Sather did extremely well, as you said. He found lost diamonds in those hills.
Something the Oilers organization hasn’t been able to do consistently.
Fun Fact, that trade tree Mantha for Acton can be traced to trades involving Cujo – Grier and Torres.
The Oilers don’t need another overpriced, one-dimensional top 6 forward. They are one of the highest scoring teams in the league, have two of the three best Cs in the league and the highest scoring dman. For the love of god, get defensive minded players who can help the PK. It’s less expensive and a better fit.
You’re forgetting they need a second line center because McDrai have to play together.
🤭
Exactly.
The problem seems to be this:
$14MM
$12.5MM
$10.5MM
$9.25MM
$7MM
$53,250,000 and none of them really play defense.
Oilers were 6th in GF but 11th in goals at 5 on 5.
Of course, PP goals matter and they will continue to come but there is a risk of being over-reliant on the PP – we saw what can happen with some injuries…..
I’m not saying they need to spend a ton to improve goal scoring but I don’t agree with the narrative that this team couldn’t use help with scoring- not to mention 20 goal (mostly at 5 on 5) from Roslovic are likely gone. I think Howard will be able to replace most of those but maybe not – we don’t know.
I keep seeing the old time hockey take of you need bigger players to win in the playoffs.
Very simple I looked at forwards who have played 100 minutes 5v5 this playoffs and how their P/60 compared to regular season.
Playoff 5v5 P/60 Drop-off
The Height Breakdown & Differences
I may play around with some other playoff years to get a better sample size
I do think Murphy will sign a team friendly deal with Bowman. As for Dickerson I believe Bowman will pivot and use that money on Kirby Dach who will centre his brother. Dach-Dach-Frederic this is a skilled-fast meat and potatoes line the Oilers desperately needed last year. If Nurse is going anywhere I believe Howard will be the sweetener needed to bring back a slightly overpaid left D-man in return. Buckle-up this could be a surprisingly interesting transition summer.
Kirby Dach looked like an absolute monster in the play in round against Chicago.
It sounds like injuries have really derailed what could have been a really promising career. I haven’t followed him and would want to know more about his recovery from those injuries. I think one was an ACL…. I wonder where he’s at health wise as Montreal had him on the 4rth line.
Bowman drafted Both Dach brothers. I do hope Bowman circles around on Kirby and he signs a hometown discount. Heavy-fast-skilled players like the Dach brothers if healthy would be 2/3 of power-line that wins Cups.
I don’t think Kirby plays heavy these days.
This is not the first time you have called him Dickerson, you do know his name is Dickinson, right?
I agree on Murphy and a team-friendly deal (not crazy but he’ll be reasonable – I expect this given multiple media avails he’s given).
I think they want to bring Dickinson back but I don’ think he’ll take a discount to what he can get at market – they likely walk.
Bowman will be excited to get a developed Howard in his lineup with two years of ELC left – highly unlikely he has trade value anywhere near his reasonably expected on-ice value for the Oilers.
If you’re going to be an eagle about spelling, please spell Howard’s first name for everybody 😉
There is a difference between a spelling mistake once and multiple times posting a different last name which, could be a mistake but could not be.
If I am repeatedly spelling his name wrong, I would be happy for someone to actually point it out to me.
Dach is a huge bandaid. It is to bad as he really is a good player.
Friedman says Larkin has requested a trade.
😮 what an amazing acquisition he would be. I think Holland thought that AA would be that for us.
Larkin requested a trade for Nurse?
NHL stars are increasingly calling their shots.
It started with Tkachuk and was recently evident with Mitch Marner and Quinn Hughes.
More to come I’m sure.
Yzerman should not be obstructionist, and embrace it. He could get a literal haul for Larkin, and reset the team younger.
The value of Larkin in the trade market is at its absolute peak at the moment.
Thoroughly Mediocre Coach delivered two thoroughly massive chokejobs.
Apparently Larkin and Yzerman don’t get along.
There are several teams who could/should acquire him…MIN, LAK chief among them.
The Habs should be desperate for a guy like Larkin
Yes, but I doubt he will or would come to Canada. He is best buds with Eichel, watch Vegas make that work.
To Det; Dorofeyev, Howden, Trevor Connelly
To Vegas. Larkin , Max Plante.
Notice they are all Yanks
Savoie, Howard Nurse and a First is probably best Oil could do
Bouchard – Savoie – Samanski – Howard is the best the Oilers can do right now.
Nurse won’t go in a trade, at least not this year.
Bouchard is worth more than Larkin
you should add a first round pick ;)…
Sather loved bringing in cast-offs of various reasons. Sather always seemed to get a fair bargain and he or Muckler would instantly put the player as mentioned above in a position to succeed. If Sather valued Howard enough to trade O’Reilly for him then he dam well would have had The Iceman shoot out of a cannon. The team last year looked bored and tired Sather always brought in new younger talent which seemed to inspire the older guys. K.K had a real opportunity with Podkolzin-Savoie-Howard to do some of the heavy lifting for Leon-Connor especially in an Olympic condensed season yet K.K doubled down on his vets.
Several vets have been brought in and received the “rookie” treatment from KK.
He did have Podkolzin playing mostly top 6 or driving a 3rd line, Savoie moved up to the top line as the season went along.
If KK properly used his preseason Howard would of been a hell of a lot better off but the team was sewage and KK couldn’t flush his bad ideas.
Spec drops a bomb of an article over at SN about trading Nurse. He does mention they contemplated healthy scratching him in the 2024 SCF and here is one paste from the piece:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/darnell-nurses-time-with-oilers-running-out/
Not great that this is getting out like this IMO. Embarrassing for the player.
Yikes… that’s not going to help Nurse’s trade value…
I don’t see how you win a Nurse trade. You will almost certainly have to retain $2 mill and you will likely get a less valuable player. He’s a legit top four dman. He’s a good player, but overpaid by $2 mill.
With Bowman at the helm, you can guarantee they will lose any Nurse trade.
I still think its unlikely he’s traded this off-season, its just such a tough trade to make.
Even with the cap rising and rising and rising, Nurse Nurse still is not close to value for his cap hit – not for years now. It remains a negative value contract in my opinion.
What would Nurse get as a UFA? $6.5MM for 3-4 years?
I think teams would like him in their lineup but he remains over capped and I don’t see teams willing to pay positive assets to take on a negative value contract for term. The
Oilers would need to eat bad cap or retain or pay assets to move the contract.
Sure, if the Oilers retained $4MM, which they could, Nurse becomes a sot after asset at $5.25MM but I don’t think that is going to happen.
Not to mention, I imagine Nurse creates a market of 0-3 teams that he’d be willing to go to, right? What are the chances any of those limited teams value him and that a trade can be made that makes sense?
I think you undervalue him, especially considering his durability, his snarl (at times), his playoff experience (we see poor perfomances, but other teams may not) and how well he is regarded in the room. I think teams will look at the Seth Jones reclamation and gamble he can do the same. Like it was mentioned earlier, if a team could get him as a UFA for 9×4 with the few D available this summer, they would regard that as a steal. For a team without cap constraint, he is a worthwhile reclamation, imo.
I think I value Nurse higher than most but I also understand value for cap hit.
I would suspect any team looking in to trading for Nurse would be very aware of his playoff performances.
Spec is a hack and so is this article. It’s hyperbolizing and dramatizing what we already know: management has thought about trading him, are seriously considering it again this summer, and will approach him to see if he’ll waive his NMC and to which team.
The healthy scratch piece is again so untrustworthy and contemplating is so much different than actually doing so. Here’s the whole paragraph:
“There were discussions around healthy-scratching Nurse during the 2024 Final, when the Florida Panthers defeated Edmonton 2-1 in Game 7, Sportsnet has learned.
In the end, it was deemed that scratching a veteran and alternate captain would prove too much of a distraction. Instead, the coaching staff limited Nurse’s ice time to the point that he ranked last among the seven Oilers defencemen who played in that series, averaging just 15:51 of ice time per game.”
What he importantly forgets to mention for why Nurse’s avg TOI was down was the fact that Nurse played under 5 minutes in Game 2 because he got hurt and then played through it for the rest of the series. So I wouldn’t call him “healthy” either. Again, this type of drivel from media is what drives down prospective value of a player. I’m not saying he’s incredible but at least don’t make it worse than what he is. Yeesh
It is kind of a hit piece with the quotes from previous coaches and the bit about scratching him. I wonder where the article comes from. Is it the team intentionally leaking info to put pressure on him? Or is it just Spec finding a story? Genuinely curious
wonderful context thank you
It does read like a hit piece, and IMO if a team is looking to move on from a player, the media should be pumping the player’s tires to try and create as much interest as possible and net as good a trade return as possible. It’s interesting that there is a focus on the finals in 2024 when that was Nurse’s best round of the postseason and the only round where he had a positive 5v5 GF%.
Round 1 vs LA:
GP: 5 | G: 0 | A: 1 | PTS: 1 | 5v5 GF: 3 | 5v5 GA: 4 | 5v5 GF%: 42.86
Round 2 vs VAN:
GP: 7 | G: 0 | A: 1 | PTS: 1 | 5v5 GF: 3 | 5v5 GA: 10 | 5v5 GF%: 23.08
Round 3 vs DAL:
GP: 6 | G: 0 | A: 1 | PTS: 1 | 5v5 GF: 3 | 5v5 GA: 7 | 5v5 GF%: 30.00
Round 4 vs FLA:
GP: 7 | G: 2 | A: 1 | PTS: 3 | 5v5 GF: 5 | 5v5 GA: 4 | 5v5 GF%: 55.56
After 1 Round:
GP: 5 | G: 0 | A: 1 | PTS: 1 | 5v5 GF: 3 | 5v5 GA: 4 | 5v5 GF%: 42.86
After 2 Rounds:
GP: 12 | G: 0 | A: 2 | PTS: 2 | 5v5 GF: 6 | 5v5 GA: 14 | 5v5 GF%: 30.00
After 3 Rounds:
GP: 18 | G: 0 | A: 3 | PTS: 3 | 5v5 GF: 9 | 5v5 GA: 21 | 5v5 GF%: 30.00
After 4 Rounds:
GP: 25 | G: 2 | A: 4 | PTS: 6 | 5v5 GF 14 | 5v5 GA: 25 | 5v5 GF%: 35.90
IMO, those numbers are pretty poor. It’s even worse when you consider that he was the 25th highest paid player in the league, the 7th highest paid defenceman, and was taking up 11.08% of the team’s cap space. Getting paid that type of money, I would expect a player to be a positive difference maker, not a liability.
That being said, it’s interesting that this information is coming out now. Did someone in the organization leak this information to try to grease the wheels for Nurse to waive his NMC, or is it just Spector trying to create drama?
People want to come on here and yap about “math” and “analytics”, but then ignore what the cold hard numbers say about a player when it doesn’t suit their narrative … they defend the player by talking about “minute munching”, “toughness”, and “leadership.” He’s best buds with McDavid don’t you know:
I could care less about what he makes … his play falls apart in pressure situations. He can’t handle a forecheck. We’ve had years of playoff hockey to evaluate him, and the numbers have repeatedly shown that he shrinks in the playoffs.
Yup.
These were Nurse’s stats through the first 19 games of the 2024 playoffs:
GP: 19 | G: 0 | A: 3 | PTS: 3 | 5v5 GF: 9 | 5v5 GA: 23 | 5v5 GF%: 28.13
Those are putrid numbers. IMO, he should’ve been scratched after game 4 of the Vancouver series, when, through the first four games of the series, he was rocking a 5v5 GF% of 14.29.
Except for this recent short playoff run though, right?
At least at 5 on 5.
I dont believe Spector made up anything he reported included what I noted in my original post. If he makes stuff up and prints it, he’ll lose his access, no doubt.
I didn’t say he made stuff up either which you insinuate here – I said he hyperbolizes and dramatizes stuff in ways the message becomes untrustworthy. Then backed it up with evidence with a quote from the article showing that.
Those quotes are exactly what I’ve been saying for years regarding Darnell Nurse.
It’s not coaching, it’s not his partner … it’s him and his lack of hockey sense. He does not process the game in the defensive end, and constantly makes bad reads … hence the starfish maneuver that he has perfected. When the pressure increases (like in the playoffs), he falls apart.
Note … getting down on your belly is not some sort of brilliant defensive strategy. It’s a sign that the defensemen is panicking. When I played goal, if a D-man did that front of me, I’d swat them on the ass and tell them to cut it out.
He’s always out of position … the high number of pucks that deflect off of him into our net (a problem that has been ongoing for years), is a reflection of this.
Bowman understands, what I’ve been saying for years … the Oilers will never win a Cup with Darnell Nurse in their lineup.
Bowman also has brought in Dach and Jones as essentially throw ins who provided real bottom 6 value. Emberson and Samanski are other pluses for low or no cost.
Would be really nice to get that top 4 or top 6 player though for low cost. Maybe Bourque will be that player
Would Dach and Jones crack the rosters of Vegas, or Colorado, or Carolina, or Tampa, or Florida, or Montreal, or…
Aspire to higher than an average team.
Jones could not crack a horrible Anaheim team. Chicago cared not one bit about losing Dach.
Dach would get runway anywhere with his youth, size, physicality. Every coach will believe they can turn him into the perfect power forward.
Patrick Maroon was in the same boat until he popped in Edmonton.
We can’t have it both ways of trying to mine under appreciated talent for cheap and then say “but would he make these teams”. Dach and Jones put up great stats on the Oilers (which is the only team where we can judge that the org deployed them the way they thought they should be) per minute played at the bottom of the roster.
All those referenced teams have loads of players in their bottom 6 that were cast offs or no names when they started who may not have gotten a chance else where.
Excuse my thoughts for a moment, I’m not sure I will complete them. My cat suddenly passed this morning and so focusing on something else makes me feel a bit better.
I’ve been thinking about the Goaltending, and if the Oilers want to move Jarry, I think there is a path forward.
If you retain half of Jarry’s contract, you can take it down to $2.6M for both the Oilers and a secondary team. In his place, you could sign Ingram to a $2.6M contract, and it would be a net neutral move for the team in terms of cap space, and opens up the roster spot for a new goalie to take over. Whether Jarry or Ingram are better is up for debate, but I can definitely see a team taking a chance on Jarry at that price, and potentially even paying something worth trading for, like a lower end roster player or a middle round pick.
The issue is, there are no free agent goalies available really. Of all the UFAs, there are only 5 who played 30 games last year:
Out of all of these goalies, Ingram had the highest save percentage at .899, and the established (somewhat antique) starters ranged from .887 (Skinner) to .877 (Bob). There just isn’t a lot out there thats available and so Jarry might have more value than you’d think.
Really sorry to hear about your loss, my condolences to you and yours.
As a fellow parent of fur babies, I am sorry for your loss.
As long as you remember your cat with love, it still lives in your heart.
So sorry to hear about your cat.
On the hockey side, I like your thought process, but remain a bit worried about the net cost of goaltending… with Ingram at 2.6 and Jarry retained at 2.6, I think we still have Campbell buyout at 2.5, so still close to $8M for Ingram in net.
I almost think the safe move for now is to hold onto Jarry, hope he recovers, and try to sign Ingram for less than $2. Fingers crossed.
Take care!
Sorry for your loss dude
Peace my friend. Cats (and all fur babies) are the best. Heaven is four paws better today.
Was looking at Mason McTavish this morning. 37 5v5 pts last year. 2.16 and 1.93 pts/ 60 at 5v5 the last two seasons.
Kent Johnson – 38 5v5 pts in 24-25. Per 60 the last three seasons: 1.95, 2.43, 1.27.
Kent Johnson would be perfect i think if they could get him somehow
McTavish was a training camp holdout last season while the Ducks brought in a new coaching staff and systems.
He was behind the 8 ball all season and is a prime bounce back candidate.
While his regular season was a step back he did manage 6 points in 10 playoff games.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/why-are-anaheim-ducks-looking-trade-move-mason-mctavish-nhl
I look forward to Mason coming to the Oilers, you “forgetting” this post, and then saying how Kent Johnson would have been a much better acquisition.
You giving Fib Sequence the gears is one of my favourite things.
I try not to engage, but a Tip o’ the Hat to you for your constant efforts.
Do we get to apply these mitigating circumstances to Jake Walman who was hurt in camp and behind the 8 ball all season and is a prime bounce back candidate?
of course not 😉
I personally don’t see any big trades and I think the roster will look somewhat similar to last season and it will be incumbent on the players to increase their commitment to structure and overall level of play – and the new coach to implement the structure and get the individual to play it effectively.
The top player say they want to do this and want to coached hard to do this.
With that said, if we are talking trades, Pagnotta is one that floated Owen Tippet and advises the Oilers are looking for top 6 forwards in that snack bracket.
I don’t see it but think it’s notable.
The Oilers were 4th in Shots for, 6th in Goals For and 1st on the PP last season, 8th in Shots Against but 25th in Goals against and 20th on the PK.
I see a lot of “Big Game Hunting” for a top-six winger but I think that might be because that’s the player type available. I see a lot of fans wanting that but if the Oilers aren’t going to play their #2PP more than the last 15-20 seconds, then an offensive winger isn’t gonna score. That being said, Owen Tippett is interesting because he’s had 8, 7 and 7 power play points the last 3 years.
The Oilers should target a 2-Way 2C AND 2-Way 3C, a 2RHD and a 1A/B/C goalie. Not that they have the money for that so they may have to drop a player or two down a well…..
They were 6th in GF but closer to the middle of the pack at 11th at 5 on 5 goals.
We saw near the end of the season how terrible the PP can be with some injuries, it would be be nice to have some more consistent 5 on 5 scoring available.
They are losing Roslovic’s 5 on 5 scoring (l presume) and, while I do think that Howard can replicate more of that (maybe even pass it if he gets Drai’s wing early), more scoring at evens wouldn’t hurt.
Its tough see a Tippet acquired – the acquisition cost on that player would be big given he’s a value contract top 6 player signed for term.
Yes, they need to prevent goals better, I agree 100%, however, as I’ve posted consistently over the last month, I think much of that comes from the incumbent team “playing better” – respecting the regular season, committing to play a structured game and being help accountable to it by the new coach, including puck management, etc.
The top players talked about needing to be better overall players and we hear they want to be “coached harder”.
Hyman/McDavid/Savoie
Howard/Drai/Pods
X/Nuge/Kap
Frederic/Samanski/Dach
X and Kap are question marks – I think Frederic will earn 3LW in due course this coming season.
Jones may re-sign.
There will be an add – McCann, Ilya M., someone else? I dunno.
I don’t see massive roster overhaul.
The top player said the Oilers were an average team.
Owen Tippett’s calling card is his speed. He has a sports hernia, and reportedly has changed course and had sports hernia surgery. So one would be trading for a player recovering from sports hernia surgery and not likely to pass a physical at the time of the trade, and hoping he will recover all of his speed. Would he even be fully recovered by September?
Trading for an injured player is certainly Stan Bowman’s signature style.
Is it too much to ask to trade for healthy players only?
When you have little of value to trade, then you have to take risks on distressed assets.
Yes, he did and I don’t have to agree with his assessment or take it without context.
I think they were (are) a good team that played average.
Its the same core than went to the SCF twice and none of them are past their primes except Ekholm who just put together a legit 2D season.
Hyman scored 31 goals in 56 games so still scoring goals a 1st line level
Yup, I really liked the roster going into the playoffs. Injuries derailed everything.
I agree although, if we are being honest, given how shitty they were during the regular season, it’s tough to say for sure what type of switch they would have been able to flip if healthy.
I put much credence in to the season ending words and a presumed renewed respect for the regular season and a legit readiness to commit to a structure that will lead to championships.
I’m generally in agreement with your Yale on things OP. However, the words this leadership groups offers the public have meant very little to me, in my few and recent years of listening. Show me, by playing as if goals against matter at least as much as goals for. Until then, please keep your criticism of the team, coach, etc private.
I’ve never heard McDavid and Drai talk about them not being good enough specifically with the details of the game and commitment to proper 2-way play, etc., etc.
Of course, until we see them do it, well, we don’t really know, I agree – however, the above combined with the intel that they “want to be coached harder” and the type of coach it seems they are looking for, I’m optimistic.
I hear that McDavid wants to win more than anyone well, if he truly does, this is the way to show it and to win.
”Darnell Nurse has little or no trade value, or negative trade value”
Really?
That might’ve been the case when the cap was $90M but a $105M payroll will have some teams salivating to get a bona fide 2nd pair defenseman, even at 9.25M.
Ask yourself this: if Nurse was UFA this offseason, would he be able to land a $9M x 4 offer?
The best LH defensemen available are Ryan Shea, Brett Kulak, and Logan Stanley. Those guys will range from $3.5 – $5.5M and Nurse is better than all of them.
Nurse’s contract is not like that of Milan Lucic. Nurse skates very well and plays big minutes. He would be in demand from a handful of teams should he be willing to waive.
The quote implies the article said that about Nurse. Just to be clear, I don’t agree that is the case.
I think your article yesterday was suggestive of the likeliest destination for Nurse in the event of a trade.
As I then listed other possible destinations the contrarians came out with their doubts that Nurse could or would agree to get traded. I disagree with them.
Whether he’s worth the contract or not, I think the main negative value is that’s it’s buyout proof because of the signing bonus structure.
He also played for Canada which helps his rep
Seriously. Media has done nothing for his reputation but a guy who can munch minutes, albeit mediocre, has extreme value.
In San Jose he would be a godsend.
Even analytics gurus would be over him (for the right price). I agree the reframing of 9×4 would be the first thing I mention. For 31 years old and today’s NHL cap that’s not bad at all. Still an overpay but that cost has been sunk by the Oil, not an acquiring team.
Even our own media reporting on the Worlds discussed “Team Canada” at length without going into individual performances. Except for Nurse. The reporting was Nurse, as usual, was responsible for the final goal and the loss.
Nurse had an excellent tournament.
Folks say “we can’t get rid of Nurse” I suggest hes not all that in love with Edmonton and fans either. It is only because of his on ice friends that he stays.
On a 23 player cap team $104M Becomes an “average” of $4.5M per player. The cap is expected to hit $113.5M next year which raises that “average” to $4.9M. Assuming the 3 “extra” players in the press box average a million each, that puts each regular spot at $5M or above. Combine that with Nurse’s average salary for 4 years being $7.4M, it’s not unreasonable that a team would be interested in a 6’4″ 215lbs defenceman who can skate, hit, score, PK, has played 800+ NHL games, and has only missed 29 games over 9 seasons.
When Nurse signed that contract it was 11.3% of an $81.5M cap. 2026-27 it will be 8.9% and 2027-28 it will be 8.1%. Each of 20 “regular” players should be just under 5% of the cap. Is he overpaid, sure but it’s by less and less each season. He has a full NMC this summer but it goes down to a 10 team NTC June 1, 2027. If the team wants him gone, he may choose to pick his spot this summer instead of spending 3 years wondering when and where.
I don’t know if he’ll be traded this summer but I would be surprised if he stayed here for the remainder of his contract.
The cap is up, yes, but Nurse still is not close to value for his cap hit – not for years now. It remains a negative value contract in my opinion.
What would Nurse get as a UFA? $6.5MM for 3-4 years?
I think teams would like him in their lineup but he remains over capped and I don’t see teams willing to pay positive assets to take on a negative value contract for term.
Not to mention, I imagine Nurse creates a market of 0-3 teams that he’d be willing to go to, right? What are the chances any of those limited teams value him and are willing to pay positive assets for him with his current contract?
Let’s blind the name on a player profile and pretend what they would get as an UFA.
Past 5 seasons average stats:
GP 78 G 9 A 25 P 34 +9 PIM 74.6 TOI 22:45
Most points are EV. Averages 4 games lost a year.
Is 6’4 and skates very well. 31 years of age. Wears an A and known to be the most vocal voice in the room. His team has been a Stanley Cup contender throughout all 5 years.
My point being, narrative drives value. Oilers fans talk up the Tippets and Kyrous that are available for some reason and evaluate them based mostly off counting stats and things like being fast and young. But we ignore or don’t go seeking out why they may be available while very much focusing why our players who are objectively valuable on paper are not valuable.
If Provorov got $8.5 x max, that puts Nurse’s value squarely in that range.
Agreed that the Oil would have to take back a contract in return (Reilly, Compher, as examples), but he’s closer to value at $9.25 than he was even one summer ago.
I don’t agree that GMs around the league would put his value near there.
You can find bad contracts at every position – that does not mean they create the market. If that was true, Nurse creates a $9.25MM market for a 4D (and a left shot 4D).
I’ve been thinking about a Shane Wright trade for a while now. I think the rumours started swirling about his availability around the new year?
The issue is: I have no idea what enticing pieces we could use to get him that we don’t also need. I understand that the Kraken are looking for skilled offense. Preferably established.
A first is always enticing but we sent that conditionally already. Surely doing so again is something we prefer to save for the deadline. Otherwise, Howard? Do any of our other prospects have any real value in a trade like this?
Then again, Maccelli only got a conditional 3rd.
If you’re trading Howard for Wright you’d have to weigh whether he is a more substantial player than OReilly at this point. Otherwise what was the point?
More established but less cheap control. I would say SO has boosted his grade since draft and Wright has lost some ground. They’re probably closer, although I think the offensive resume for Wright leans to topping 2nd line C (not based on last year) while Oreilly looks more ‘do it all’ 3c or top 6 defensive conscience for high skill wingers (Kucherov?).
The cupboards are pretty bare so unless you’re trading Hyman or Nurse to get Wright and say Ty Nelson or Blake Fiddler as a D prospect with Grubauer for money I’m not sure you get there unless Seattle materially changes their ask. Would love Berkley Catton but so does everyone they’re not trading him.
Here’s a bonkers proposal that’s gonna get some head shakes:
To Oilers: Shane Wright
To Kraken: Elias Pettersson @ 9.6M
To Canucks: Tampa 2026 1st (via Kraken), Trent Frederic
Oilers retain $2m on Pettersson
Seattle get their established star at a slight discount, Canucks maximize value on Pettersson and take on a reclamation, Oilers shed about a million in cap in the short term and get their young gun.
Taking on dead cap isn’t ideal, but with the cap going up and our lack of assets, we’re going to need to find creative ways to “get good players”. Taking on $2m is actually more relief on Freddy for less time than a buyout.
This is just the bones, add/subtract dollars and throw-ins to equilibrium.
I feel like Seattle wants to move on from Wright because he isn’t a 3C and has been passed on the depth chart. If we take Kaapo Kakko as a comparable, he was traded for William Borgen (2/3 RHD on an expiring contract) a 3rd and a 6th. Teams get weird when it comes to young forwards that aren’t scoring.
That being said, I have no idea why they would trade Wright this summer but they do seem to need D, Wingers and maybe another G.
Which brings me to my next point, Matt Murray played 5 games for Seattle last year but had a .922? SIGN THE MAN!!!!!
Nemec’s defensive results are his biggest downside so far.
They would have to take a solid look at him in a way i’m not overly confident pro scouting has condistently managed to in edmonton for quite a lomg time.
Buy low, sell high is always a good strategy. You mentioned Podkolzin, and I would think this would be the template for pro scouting acquisitions. Maybe Parkatti can help illuminate the benefits of going this direction. I hope so (although hope is a terrible strategy).
I think they are always looking for it, but there aren’t going to be many like Podz, and the asking price it seems is often a problem
The “depreciated asset” is the model I would argue is what the Oilers need to focus on. There are always guys who are young, did not develop or produce the way their team hoped, and as a result are not going to play for them. These should be available for a song, either before the draft or in August.
Lowetide wrote: “However, he also brought in Trent Frederic, who I love as a player but that contract is too much for too long for a player of his type.”
Boy I hope you’re right that Frederic has a rebound year next season… I certainly don’t know what I loved about seeing him in Oiler’s silks, and I can’t really even think of much I didn’t dislike about his play. *only 7 more years* Fingers crossed for a strong 2026-27 season.
For everyone trying to trade away Nurse because he’s overpaid by ~ $2M per, Trent Frederic is probably overpaid by the same amount.
He had a 62 percent expected goal share from the start of March through the end of the regular season (47 percent actual) and the offense didn’t come around, but there were some positivrs late. I think Colton Dach was a Godsend for him. Hope to see them together next season.
Thanks Lowetide for the response… much appreciated.
I don’t mean to shift goalposts, but I was pretty high on the team during its final push of the season, and I was (rightly) corrected by other posters who pointed out that the “mythical final 11 games” was largely a mirage, with the Oilers feasting on mostly bottom teams. I hope Frederic was actually showing signs of life, and not just enjoying the spoils of a lesser competition.
To be clear, in the 2025 offseason and early 2025-26 I was harshly against Frederic’s play, but you opened my eyes to the reality of Frederic playing injured. I remain hopeful for a bounceback 26-27 season. I’m just worried that Frederic’s improved underlying numbers could be fooling us a bit.
The Oilers played about 20 games between the first of March and end of season, so Frederic was performing pretty well (although scoring just 1.07 points-60 at five-on-five) during that period.
I’ve been reminded many times about the qual comp during that run, but the team played Vegas twice, Anaheim twice and I think LAK a couple of times.
More than that, the structure shown in those games was impressive and repeatable. Now, the season ended in a mess, but part of that was due to injuries (specifically at center). So, I think the black and white of the final 11 games being a mirage is in fact (like everything else0 more shades of grey.
They found the formula, lost the formula but the injuries surely had an impact.
The last eleven games:
Utah(15), Vegas(13), Anaheim(18), Seattle(27), Chicago(31), Vegas(13), Utah(15), San Jose(24), LA(20), Colorado(1), Vancouver(32). 7 playoff teams and 4 non-playoff teams.
It’s not exactly Murderers’ Rob but given that 50% of the league does not make the playoffs, I’d say this is about average competition.
Fabled, not mythical. Not a mirage. They happened. In front of our eyes. QoC just fine (as per @Dulock).
Then injuries—and “the owner is angry,” so instead of a measured look at the whole season, and the trend toward the end when the team played w more 200-ft structure/effort than they had since Nov 26-Dec 25 —the panic firing of the coach. Egad!
Yes, Fred (w Duck and Sam), playing well. Exciting, even. I recall his first seven minutes as an Oiler! A blast of Bruins energy creating chaos. Then, at the seven minute mark, reinjury, and a long time of anger from so many in Oilerville.
But who has patience in this fanbase? He, along with Draisaitl, Walman, Podkolzin may be the “10-year solutions” to the end of the McD Era (ME).
Speaking of myths, mirages, and fables, LT: your Glen Sather abides in a golden glow, and I enjoy the storytelling (only know him from his brief stint w the Habs). If, as you say, “he used his imagination and tried to solve problems with a 10-year solution” —hear, hear!
My rhetorical question: in the ME, has ownership ever had the patience for 10-year solutions? In the short time I’ve been watching (late 2023), the solutions have been whittled from two years down to one year. Whatever Oilerville may think of GMSB, he’s been given a near-impossible job: placate owner’s intolerance for necessary transitions (and injuries!), prepare the team for life after the ME.
Thanks for the correction, much appreciated. However, I’m going to take exception to one narrative you have mentioned a few times now:
“But who has patience in this fanbase?”
I don’t believe you were an active fan of the Oilers during the decade of darkness, but the Oilers fanbase was incredibly patient during that miserable run outside of the playoffs. Despite ineptitude off and on the ice, we still watched, read about, and attended games. We had draft parties, and I believe in part due to so few positives, some of us dug into, discussed, developed, and helped drive modern hockey analytics.
Nobody has unlimited patience, and maybe some of us have run out of patience, but it’s just not true (and a little insulting) to suggest that a group that stuck with their team for a decade (with almost nothing to cheer for) doesn’t have patience. I generally enjoy many of your comments, but would enjoy them a lot more if you could be mindful of the group you appear to be criticizing.
Mea culpa, and my apologies to that large part of Oilerville that suffered through dark years. You’re right, I have no business questioning your patience.
That said, the impatience around “the McD window” seems only to make the present moment worse. As a newcomer, this team looks successful to me. The only team more successful, Florida. This was going to be a transition year. I am disappointed in what looks like owner —not fan— impatience.
Thanks so much for your response. Much appreciated!
And I think we both 100% agree there was managerial / ownership impatience that did not help the McDavid years. Fingers crossed they start doing things right.
Have a great day!!
Agreed about Dach.
I would expect if they get a coach that can organize the team better Fred and some others will look better. Playoffs Fred was underwater in GF% at 5v5, along with Connor, Lazar, Bouch, Hyman and Savoie
I’m still holding out hope for Nelson to be brought back.
If Nelson could find a partner to boost Nail without hurting the rest of the team dynamic, I think he could find a partner to boost Frederic.
North south plays north south. To his credit: he looked a lot better when his speed seeked like it picked back up.
A lot less day late dollar short obvious inneffective moments.
The hope is a Connor Brown turnaround year 2 without losing the player once you rehabbed him. And he’s younger. It’s not apples to apples for player type but the idea is the same.
I love the irony in them paying the freight for ardvisson’s recovery then firing him oit of a cannon only to gibe his money to magniapane….
Like disregarding how well arvi’s lime looks this year this was clearly not soundly logic based on player type and history….
This kind of a level chess logic or better in decisions -> like less knee jerk mad squirrel type moments. I hope forensic deep dive asked harder questioms than it almost surely did.
The had a shining example of the rehab method paying off with Brown and to a degree Klingberg but decided Arvi wasn’t worth waiting for.
It’s like Bro all over again. All the pain of developing/rehabbing, none of the payoff.
And if Arvi didn’t return to form, you end up doing a similar Mangi trade anyway. So what was it for?
Yes he should be back to normal after a long summer. His training will probably be better as well
Is wild to me that so many discount the fact that he played for two months on a badly sprained ankle and then had a 3-month offseason where I presume he was limited in hockey training and all but solely was rehabbing.
He was clearly not able to skate to normal levels to start the season – objectively, NHL Edge shows a pronounced uptick later in the year.
No doubt he was awful most of the year – completely ineffective but the summer he had, plus the healthy he started with plus the position he was put in to start the season – it went bad early and his confidence cratered and it snowballed.
He was better later in the season, not great but better.
I expect him to set himself up for a good start this summer.