The Edmonton Oilers are blessed with hundreds of thousands of concerned citizens, who also take it upon themselves to general manage the team from afar. This can, at times, lead to hilarious results as happens each trade deadline and July 1. We all need something to dream on, and improving the Oilers roster gets mountains of attention.
We also need something to feed the ideas, and that comes from various local and national sources. I think we know who to trust, although even that can get lost at times in the fog of war. The most difficult time I recall was the Steve Tambellini era, I’m not sure the man had a media confidant and he didn’t like leaks. If the Oilers ever had a GM who used a burner phone, it would have been Tambellini.
The ideas since July 2 have been a little all over the place, and that makes sense since the team has a new coach. I think we’re overlooking line matching and a veteran coach who will look for an edge. I also think the center position will be a key for Babcock, and we will see changes either before camp or early in the season.
In 2017-18, Babcock used four main centers. I’ll use total faceoffs to rank them: Tyler Bozek (1,169) was the top man, followed by Nazem Kadri (1.093), Auston Matthews (688) and William Nylander (650). There were injuries to some of these fellows, and some other centers (Dominic Moore, Patrick Marleau) who were injured or played wing, but I want to keep it tight at four centers.
Puck IQ tells us that Kadri played 47.9 percent of his five-on-five ice time against elite competition. Now Auston Matthews (40.9 percent) played a pile against elites, too (info is here) and Tyler Bozek saw the soft parade (21.8 percent).
If we apply those numbers to the current Oilers, I think we can use Draisaitl as the match for Kadri, McDavid as the Matthews in this model and I was thinking Nuge could be the soft parade option.
Throwing a wrench into that verbal? The news that McDavid and Draisaitl are going to play together at five-on-five. Either the Oilers are delivering an organized verbal counter trey, or Stan Bowman is going to need to find a hard minutes center to replace Draisaitl in the model.
Since we know for a fact there is no Draisaitl available, I return to the idea that Babcock should run McDavid-Draisaitl-Nuge-Dickinson at center. I think that is the truth and the way. People get caught up in the idea Dickinson is the fourth center, but he’ll play a significant amount. We will talk about zone starts and penalty killing another day.
The move I see for this team is either a second-line RH center or a soft minutes pivot for the third line (my choice is Nuge). I don’t know how Babcock will use the team’s best utility player but I bet he knows what he’s going to try. I don’t think these Oilers are a finished product.
What would be the appetite for a player like Petterson for your 2nd/3rd line center? Makes a ton but the cap is going up and he is still young and likely wouldn’t cost much at all. Might be a ripe time to take a risk to get him.
(fully acknowledging we just got rid of Nurse and he could likely be exactly the same type of good player vastly overpaid).
Another top 6F in similar situations (skilled, questionably overpaid currently but maybe not in new setting or with rising cap and with a new GM) is Meier
Peterson would cost you prospects/young player & multiple picks.
I personally like the idea of Petterson but you would be giving up a lot.
Honestly hard to say what he would cost. My best guess is he has Nurse like value given his contract amount and length and would have to give up a prospect or pick.
If Howard is going to get the push early, than Howard Draisaitl XXX, will be a soft minutes line. The Oilers need Howard to play and be successful, or at least need to find out. Or pump and dump him.
Podkolzin McDavid Savoie (power vs. power and/or 2nd hardest minutes)
Howard Draisaitl XXX (soft minutes. leaning OZ starts, Kapanen is likely)
Nugent-Hopkins Samanski Hyman (selective hard minutes, need some secondary scoring)
Janmark Dickenson Joseph (selective hard minutes, leaning DZ starts, get the puck from the DZ to the OZ, and get off).
With the current roster, this is how they should go. When or if Howard fails, then go to plan B, and reunite Podkolzin with Draisaitl and reconfigure the lines and roles.
Hyman is not a strong defensive player.
The Dickinson line will get torched.
Many teams now have out scoring third lines.
Define “many.”
You may want to check recent Stanley Cup winning teams among others.
This is why I was so hopeful for Giroux, having a third line of Nuge Dickinson Giroux I believe would have been amazing, a great shutdown line but could outscore as well with the flexibility of all 3 being able to play C, Giroux also being one of the best in league RH facoff guys and both “wingers” having the skill to move up the lineup if necessary.
C’est le vie.
What happened to the rumours Max Berezkin would be coming over and trying out the NHL after some AHL time to get familiar with the rink size etc?
He signed in the KHL.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-maxim-berezkin
That’s too bad his agent must of wanted some guarantees that the Oilers said no to.
Which speaks volumes – he’s not some blue chip prospect who was picked top 10. He’s a long shot nobody right now who has to learn how to play at North American pace in North American rinks. He wouldn’t get a guarantee of NHL games from even the worst team in the league.
Time to stop talking about this guy … he’s a never was.
He really only has value to the Oilers as trade bait rather than as an actual prospect.
I suspect fellow Russkie Yevseyev is in the same boat.
Maybe you can deal them to the Tulskys for a pick or two.
The Tulskys already have 26 Russians in the pipeline so I’m not sure they need more.
Big skilled wingers are exactly what Bowman can never get enough of as he cycled out dozens receiving excellent milage over the years. I wonder why not this player?
Many players from Russia have zero interest in playing in the AHL and Bakersfield would be among the most odious destination in the U.S.
The size of Edmonton I don’t get why they don’t have both farm club and big club? Or a better idea locate the farm team in Saskatoon and watch a Province cheer for a AHL team like no tomorrow. It just doesn’t make logistic sense having the farm team in Bakersfield. Where are all those 7 outraged people that got the Esk’s name changed. Those 7 people should be demanding a lesser carbon footprint from the Oilers farm club asap.
I’ve seen red deer suggested as a ahl spot. Your Saskatoon suggestion would be ideal for a solid fan base. Obviously the people that run the show would have options and have decided to stick with Bakersfield.
As the USHL expands aggressively into California and Arizona, they may change the landscape for the AHL.
The USHL/NCAA juggernaut is very strong.
Thinking about the lines and what the results might be we of course go by the last couple of years and how that looked. I expect it’s going to look different this season once they settle in
Knob didn’t line match and was stubborn on things. The team wasn’t consistent under him. I think the top players had become frustrated. Actually most of the players. If they do follow the plan and actually play up to their level they won’t get behind so often and won’t lose leads so often, will dominate more games, and those things give the coaches more options
I think the core players basically ran the team with K.K being the frontman. There’s a new sheriff in town that will give the non core players more of a clearer photo on what is expected. I didn’t like the Holland hiring and I certainly felt like showering when Babcock was hired. It’s too bad we didn’t get Quenneville in saying that I think Mike might tighten the drum just enough to take out the Panthers in the final. No way is Maurice going to pull a fast one on the refs with Babcock piercing a hole through them.
Knob didn’t only not work for match-ups against the opposition’s top lines but he didn’t work to get his top players clean air – this will definitely change under Babcock.
This whole McDavid and Draisaitl need to play apart to make everyone else feel like they are contributing line is nonsense.
Early 2000s Devils center line depth chart:
Arnott – Gomez – Holik – Madden
Madden as your fourth line center! Insanity. Holik and Madden must have been so upset when they won that Stanley Cup!
If ever there was a team that deserved the famous balance photo that was it.
Times have changed – Agents will never allow this anymore. Its all about the individual opportunity given now. The agents for the modern day Holik and Maddens would demand a trade before training camp!
And there will never be another Lou
The old school gm’s can easily be fuked over by today’s agent’s. The agent’s hold more and more power as the wages skyrocket. Armstrong is owed a lot of whiskey by agents after the 2 offer sheets he pulled on the Oilers last spring.
One thing I never understood with loading up McDrai versus optimizing separate McDavid / Drai lines is this:
Two separate Mcdavid, Draisaitl lines should be able to hit xGF% of 60. Hell, Draisaitl can do that with Podz and Kap.
What’s the marginal improvement in xGF% for McDavid + Drai? Let’s say it’s 65 (some years it is not this). But they can’t play together all the time. What’s the xGF% of the new second line? I would say at best 50-52.
You can see the problem here; even trailing, you can roll two lines that give you xGF of 60 versus the average of xGF of 65 and 50-52, which is an overall lower xGF. By the way, this does not even account for the fact that matching up against McDavid+Draisaitl together (for the opposition) is much easier than matching them apart.
Statistically, the xGF of that McDrai line has to be 70+ to even think about it. But it’s not.
I personally don’t even understand why this is a debate.
Now, final 1 minute of the game? Last minute of a period? Heck yeah, load them up. But not routinely, makes no sense to me.
The Podz/Drai/Kap line you mention did this but its been a long time since we saw McDavid hit 60% without Leon (and Leon hasn’t without McDavid but for that line for a while).
I don’t think that is a realistic expectation any more.
We know McDavid and Drai are going to play some togheter and some apart – very likely more apart. I could get in favour of this 4 center split but I just think that they org sees Dickinson as a significant 3rd line center and do we not think that Dickinson and Nuge with the likes of a Kapanen can be a strong 3rd line that can play against the opposition’s top 6 and saw off/win the matchup on enough nights. Shit, go with Nuge/Dickinson/Podz and I think that line could crush.
At this point, I am close to resigning myself to the fact that Samanski will start in Bako which I think is a mistake as I think he’s ready to take a step to be a very very good 4C and PK guy with a real chance to move up to 3C in time – I think there is more offence to give and the kid excuses positive attitude.
Agree with you that Samanski should make the team and play regularly. Does he have much more to learn/prove in the AHL? His time is now. Also, look at regular season vs playoff splits; the offence is coming.
I personally think the Oilers should rotate the bottom two forwards (13 and 14) through for load management purposes. Keep Hyman and Nuge fresh for the playoffs. Entire bottom six for that matter.
Such a set up would benefit Hutson, whom I believe should start in the NHL.
I don’t buy that Joseph is an automatic to make the team. He could be sent down.
14F will be in the AHL (unless there is an IR injury) given 3 goalies on the roster.
They will only carry one extra forward. Of course, Samanski/Howard/Hutson/ can go up and down easily but, once Jones/Janmark clear waivers, they can go up and down until they’ve either played 10 NHL games or been on the NHL roster for 30 days (aggregate).
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I can’t see Hutson ahead of any of Jones/Janmark/Joseph/Howard/Samanski which makes him 16F at best, right? Chaulk yesterday spoke about him needing to work on not being straight legged and to play better defensively and commit to battle in the defensive zone as much as the offensive zone – I don’t think he’s on the NHL roster any time soon.
I don’t think Joseph is a stone cold lock but I think he’s very close to it – he’s DJ Smith’s guy, he’s fast, he’s very good defensively, he’s very good on the PK and he does have a couple of seasons over 30 points and is mid-career – he’s everything they wish Janmark could be
If Joseph is a D.J signing then he’ll make the team if healthy. I’m kinda looking forward to seeing if he has an endless motor. With Savoie and Joseph on the PK we might be able to keep other teams honest with the 4-5 forward strategy
I think Joseph creates a lot of scoring chances on the PP with his stick and speed (although is a poor finishes – think Todd Marchant on breakaways…..).
In sent to the AHL, I assume they’ll ask Samanski to continue to work on developing his offensive game. I think there’s still likely some question on his offensive production if/when he becomes a NHL regular.
Chaulk did say just yesterday they want him to “take more risks”.
He did “cheat for defence” in the NHL and that should go away once he’s more comfortable.
At the same time, his offence was there in the AHL – he led the team in 5 on 5 scoring at the time of call-up, not Quinn Hutson.
I think he’s at the “ready for development in the NHL” stage.
i don’t think scoring more at 5v5 in the AHL than Quinn Hutson means you’re an NHL offensive producer.
Who said it does? I said I think it shows he has more to give and also that he’s ready to develop at the NHL level. He’s already been an impact producer at evens in the AHL.
Maybe that’s an area we differ.
My understanding is owner, management, coach and 97, 29, 18 and others are planning for Stanley.
Ready for development in the NHL isn’t normally consistent with building a roster to win the cup.
It 100% is – see Savoie last year.
Winning now is not just one and done, they need to ensure they are competitive next year and in the medium term.
Also, young players impacting on ELCs is massive for winning.
I think you’re correct in moving off your stance Samanski has earned a roster spot. TBD
I remain of the opinion that Samanski has earned a spot on this team – with his Olympics, playoffs and World Championships. I think he’s fully ready to progress at the NHL level. I think an AHL assignment is a mistake but I can see it being likely.
Sometimes younger players have to pay their dues.
With his contract status it’s a way of clearing the tracks ahead of him so he can stick.
Having said that, if he comes to camp and out performs a veteran and still gets sent down I’ll be a bit sour about it. He’s done everything you could ask to stick with the big club and learn on the job at the highest level.
Hopefully he has more patience than Broberg.
He outperformed Janmark last season and should be ahead on the depth chart heading in to camp, not needing to pass, no?
Chaulk was on for two segments with Stauff yesterday. A really good listen on number of fronts including how they are working worth the development team.
In the second segment he gave quick hitters on a few of the notable prospects.
On Clatt he talked about underrated skating and puck skills but there being lots of work to do away from the puck. Mainly is stopping on the puck. He too often circles and turns his back to the play and that’s a bad habit. Work to do on the boards and getting pucks up and out. Those things are big holes in his game. Trying to get him to embrace his competitiveness and fearlessness but trying to get him to make sure he’s playing hockey. He gets away from working in those things when he’s sticking up for his teemates. He needs more time in the AHL and needs to play more games.
Akey found his way. He was something like 35 of his first 42 games he was plus or even. On a team that was at some points bottom third defensively. That was something to be proud of as a first year pro d-man.
He got a puck in the face and lost 7 teeth. Was not the same after that. Lost some weight and played with a bubble.
Smooth, poised, right show, smart. He needs to get stronger after losing two summers with the shoulders.
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Carfagna – led team in plus minus. Got better day by day and week by week all season. He’s a puck moving guy. Not super physical or touch but smart and nature and makes a great first pass. He finds forwards with speed.
Howard, Samanski and Hutson.
Howard is the closest. Really wanted to learn to play without the pick.
Sammy – responsible, needs to bring more offensively but knows his role, faceoffs, checking and good without the puck. Would like to see him take more risks.
Hutson – sniper. Understands how to play without the puck offensively. Competitive on loose pucks. Would like to see him not be so straight legged, be a little better defensively and be a bit mean. He can do it because we see it when there is an offensive chance but we’d like to see him do it on the other side of the puck. He knows it.
Good to hear about Akey!
This guy played his youth hockey for the Ottawa Valley Titan and then for the Renfrew Wolves and then 3 full season of Junior and then one AHL.
He has had paid great coaching for 8 years. These are the basics of the games. Every coach has said the samething and likely the same Canada Hockey drills. He might never learn this basics.
If he now has the pace and strength needed for pro hockey. He is a closed to fully developed as the non NHL systems can produce.
Who is “this guy”?
I believe it is in reference to Clattenburg
Can’t say for sure but I ~think~ he means Clattenburg.
I’m glad the name Clattenburg keeps getting mentioned that means to me they value what this player has and what he may become.
Loading up McDavid and Drai at times to take advantage if matchups and situations does not equate to over-relying on them. Even playing them together for stretches during home games does not equate to over-relying on them.
Babcock, if anything, has a history of underplaying his stars. He played Matthews as little as 17:30 per game one season and never more than 18:30. He criticized McLellan for playing McDavid and Draisaitl too much.
As much as we’ve heard alluding to them playing together we’ve hear even more about needing to use the entire roster. DJ Smith was in with Stauff last week and was clear again on that.
Every coach on the history of the league has played his two best forwards together at least at times. Why would the Oilers not do that? Remember 5 or so years ago when they would be lit together and the energy would rise and it would be so dynamic? That has died over the years and part of is recent coaches would just plays them as a default without any plan. Babcock will play them together with a matchup and situation strategy.
I want to see how long this theory /strategy holds if we start losing games or are down 2 goals with a period to go ..Many smart coaches before this one started October with the same concept.
If they are down 2-goals with a period to go an the group is not creating offence, wouldn’t it make sense to play them together?
Not really.
We’ve seen them be completely ineffectual on a line together, especially when it matters… like in elimination games vs. Florida.
It’s not actually a nuclear option.
More of a bug zapper.
Every coach has done it and it hasn’t won them a thing.
Maybe try something different?
And I know you didn’t mention Nuge, but the idea that he can drive the 3rd line as a center is just wishful thinking.
Nuge IS the soft parade.
Draisaitl/McDavid/Howard
Podz/Addition/Hyman
Savoie/Nuge/Kapanen
Dach/Dick/Goose
Howard firing piss rockets.
Podz/Hyman forechecking family lineages.
Savoie/Nuge feeding a streaking Kapanen positive goal shares.
Patty Dach Supremacy playing bully ball.
Cooking.
A tip o’ the hat to Piss Rockets.
Good stuff.
Goose?
Frederic, when I had a two second moment thinking Kirby older brother of Dach was coming to town.
Dach/Dach/Goose.
His name was Sidney Crosby…
His name was Robert Paulson…
https://youtu.be/j7HZSzpBpxk?si=uFMd0N-yUYllk5Ds
Really not thrilled with this early push to play Connor and Leon together. It’s a bad idea, and when the rest of the roster doesn’t produce, then it’s back to the blender again. If there’s one lesson from the Knoblauch era is that lines need time to find cohesion, and chasing it up every game or every period has a detrimental effect on the players.
I don’t think we can jump to to many conclusions. We don’t know what we don’t know.
We know…everyone knows
DJ Smith, who coached against the Oilers, spoke about how challenging it is to play against the load up on the road. He says it’s easier at home. It’s about getting matchups.
I think the experienced coaching staff, with direct experience, has some credibility.
I don’t think we are going to see them just run them loaded up as a line for games but I try I’ll that Babcock will be much more strategic – he’ll load up sporadically for match ups and situations.
I believe this team will absolutely be able to score enough when they are together. They will be playing with more structure and will be pressuring to get the puck back. They are going to use the entire lineup which will also make the load-up more dynamic when we do see it.
If you’re not using Dickinson as a line match against the toughs you probably should have just let him go.
Yup, exactly
As RNH in his 16th season in his 33/34 year. Is a 3rd line left wing not a 2nd line center.
Babcock need not take anytime this fall to understand that
Points in october and early november are overrated.
Also:
Like commiting to start season with mindset of best you can some logical line development to optimize team efficiency and chemistry over just panic over tsking the BEST ever crack pipe hits is ridiculous surely.