We are still getting to know these Edmonton Oilers, and it will take time to properly assess the entire roster. Hopefully, Mike Babcock figures them out sooner than the local curling team does over beers after the game. Please read this.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
- On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0)
- On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1)
- At home to: Mammoth (1-0)
- On the road to: Mammoth (0-1)
- At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2)
- On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
- Expected Record: 9-4-1, 19 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 1-0-1, three points in two games
There isn’t much to say about the season so far, beyond three points in two games is a good pace. If the Oilers continue that point frequency, the point total end October will be 21 and that’s a good number.
MAX SPEED
- Connor McDavid 99th
- leon Draisaitl 72nd
- Vasily Podkolzin 64th
This is the top line. Don’t get too excited about Leon Draisaitl’s number, he was 92nd percentile a year ago and probably hasn’t unleashed the hounds yet. We’re two games in and this is ‘max’ foot speed, so that number will climb quickly. Podkolzin was 88th percentile last year. This line is fine, in my opinion. Check daily. NHL Edge updates every day.
- Ike Howard 99th pecentile
- Kasperi Kapanen 99th percentile
- Zach Hyman 96th percentile
- Colton Dach 93rd percentile
- Max Jones 89th percentile
- Trent Frederic 88th percentile
- Alex Formenton 71st percentileI
- Owen Michaels 69th percentile
- Josh Samanski below 50th percentile (33.12 kmh)
- Mathieu Joseph below 50th percentile (33.05 kmh)
There are just two forwards below NHL average and Joseph was 77th percentile a year ago. Josh Samanski was also below 50th percentile last season, so maybe boots are the reason Mike Babcock is fading him. On the other hand, the radar gun could see Samanski good tonight and we have a new assessment on the smart young center.
A player can be fast and ineffective, Max Jones would be an example and Kasperi Kapanen is too when playing away from Leon Draisaitl. I wish they would let Ike Howard loose with Leon and Kapanen, that would give McDavid the big Russian (Podkolzin) full time. Perhaps the coaching staff lands there tonight. I’m impressed by Colton Dach, suspect he’ll be on the wing in due time and should have an impact when he gets there. Owen Michaels also showing well enough to be considered a real prospect. Trent Frederic had the boots in Game 2. More please.
- Connor Murphy 99th percentile
- Shakir Mukhamadullin 89th percentile
- Jake Walman 87th percentile
- Ryan Shea 83rd percentile
- Evan Bouchard 71st percentile
- Mattias Ekholm below 50th percentile (31.32 kmh)
Connor Murphy, whatcha doing????? He was below 50th percentile last season. One always wonders about nagging injuries when defensemen improve markedly. I do think Murphy has looked slow in places, but maybe a better word would be unsure.
Mattias Ekholm was 72nd percentile last season, so his wheels turn just fine. Unless he’s injured, that number will spike in the next few games.
Evan Bouchard is splended at standing up at the blue line and having enough gas for retrieval. He’s fantastic at that aspect of the game. That tells us he has plenty of torque just they way he is.
I have no idea what we can expect tonight. Seriously. Seattle Kraken look like a team with some depth, and that should mean McDavid-Draisaitl are split but Babcock is a stubborn coach with exceptional belief in his own ability to see the game clearly. That can be good and bad. We’ll see.
BAKERSFIELD CONDORS
- Goalies: Matt Tomkins, Connor Ungar
- Left Defense: Damien Carfagna, Riley Stillman, Tomas Cibulka, Samiel Sjolund
- Right Defense: Josh Brown, Beau Akey, Zach BookmanT
- Center: Viljami Marjala, Tucker Robertson, Will Nicholl
- eft Wing: Eduards Tralmaks, Rhett Pitlick, Aku Raty, Connor Clattenburg, Jack Kopacka
- Right Wing Quinn Hutson, Seth Grifith, Daniel D’Amato, Ethan Keppen, Simon Tassy
Things to watch for Game 1 include the four centers (I see only three, bur maybe Pitlick plays in the middle, or Kopacka), and impressive training camp hopefuls like Tomas Cibulka, Damien Carfagna, Viljami Marjala, Eduards Tralmaks. Also looking for strong showing from Quinn Hutson, he needs to push for NHL work this season.
How concerned should the Edmonton Oilers be after high-scoring first 2 games?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7649423/2026/10/03/edmonton-oilers-stats-goals-2026/
I have to hand it to the ad algorithm – how did it KNOW I was looking for wholesale restaurant furniture?!!
Frederic may have straight ahead speed once he gets going, but if one looks at the first Bains goal the other night, he is a horrible skater. He was beaten silly on the wall by Bains, and Frederic was still fumbling on his skates on the boards with Bains already in front of the net waiting to score.
That a puck bounced to him at the side of an open net is just random luck, not a sign that he is competent.
I haven’t been impressed with Colton Dach this year but that’s likely because he’s been put in a position to not succeed. He is a winger. He’s made 5 plus terrible reads this season and goals are being leaked.
I don’t see anything in his game that would make one think he should not play on the wing. He was a very effective winger in a short sample as an Oiler and I have to think that Babcock will get him on the wing in fairly short order. Not sure it stats tonight.
Agree on Owen Michaels. I was very wrong on his potential to play in the NHL. At the same time, I do think he’s best served by a legit AHL stint and, if the team ever gets a semblance of health, he likely gets it, even with Babcock’ verbal love-in. His NST expected goals is below 35% – of course, he’s playing higher in the lineup than one could every reasonably imagine
The narrative on Bouchard being terrible defensively (which, of course, is just wildly wrong) discounts so many things including the fact that he’s one of the best rush defenders in the league – elite at defending zone entry and often breaking up a play and starting an offensive chance in short order. What a player!
Lambert Pre game speech:
Ferraris with James Norris – See what we can get away with for interference in the nuetral zone early. Taking a few penalties is ok. They don’t call them all. Their PP isnt that dangerous now without 93 and 18. Just make sure we back track through the middle and we will pick off a few E W softies and transition quickly to O. Likely get a few odd man rushes this way. They don’t back track hard so back off their D and look for our trailer
D back in for 97 entries and make sure we have a F inside the dots to take away the inside. He’ll do a few around the horns which is ok. If we keep him outside he’ll try low percentage plays. Make sure everyone collapses to the slot, get inside position and pick up sticks. Just need to minimize the damage for these minutes. 4G or less here and we get at least a point.
Every other line and D pair – We make our hay here. Expect 5+ G if we do these things:
Exit out the left side when possible- D and W weak here
Once O zone established have F2 get to top of crease – they don’t clear the crease and their G struggle with rebounds off screens
Lots of low to high – their wingers get sucked into no mans land then struggle to get back into shooting lanes.
Crease forward takes strong side rebounds
F2 gets weak side rebounds
Once we get a 2 goal lead D no pinching and no more than 1 F below hashes
Once they are down weak side D and G be prepared for the tip in off the stretch pass then just fire it out as quick as we can to take advantage of their long D to F gap
They are disciplined so we will have to sell our calls. Their PK is usually unorgainzed at the top middle so look to get pucks to Vinny there.
Own the netfronts, keep their speed to the outside, get a lead and we win 5 4
I wish Jones had just been ineffective – he’s been a liability.
I didn’t think he should be on the opening roster and I have to think he’s sent out as soon as the have an extra body (they can transition Samanski to non-emergency).
Kapanen made some fantastic offensive plays last game but he leaks every time he’s not with Drai and he was full value for his part in that line getting scored on repeatedly last game.
I think Kap has to be stapled to Drai because (1) it works and (2) it creates a much better Kapanen.
On the show last night, Stauff suggested a good chance Levi gets the start tonight – should find out soon.
I’m personally hopeful that maybe Hyman is good to go. Remember, Babcock never said its a 2-week injury – he said he’s “day to day” and repeated that whenever he’s told day to day he thinks 2-weeks.
I don’t expect he’ll play but I don’t think the door is closed nor on Dickinson.
Less chance Levi gets booed in Edmonton than Jarry. Next Jarry start should be on the road.
See how the bottom of the order stands up against some better competition tonight. Seattle may not have much elite talent, but they sprinkle a bunch of average to above average throughout their lineup.
13 goals against given up in 2 games to a team projected to be a cellar dweller. This can’t continue.
I’ve never been more bullish on Edmonton Oilers goaltending in my 35+ years of fandom.
Nowhere to go but up.
Who do you start? I would go Levi yet I think Babcock will go Jarry.
Prospectasaurus!
It’s another nonet tonight, just configured slightly differently.
The Western Michiganders make their debut. It will be Lafreniere’s NCAA debut, while Sharp plays his first game as an Oilers prospect.
The non-directional Michiganders are also in action, as is the House of Windsor. Robinson has points in all three games (1 + 3) since his return.
Berzkalns has yet to record a point after his first two games back with Muskegon. Will he get off this schneid tonight? We wait.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 2 p.m.
Muskegon (Berzkalns) @ 4 p.m.
Michigan (Barnett, Park) @ 4 p.m.
Western Michigan (Lafreniere, Sharp) @ 4 p.m.
Windsor (Robinson, Harvey) @ 5 p.m.
Sioux Falls (Cameron) @ 5 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Alderson time.
It’s interesting, but when I see Frederic at 88 percentile then you watch the games he’s late to many plays and last to leave where the play once was that lessens the meaning of top speed for me.
Same for Murphy at 99% yet he’s been in chase mode too often
Speed bursts or acceleration (like a Ferrari 0-60 time) would be more meaningful imo.
Hockey is more F1 than Nascar
I think the bias on a guy like Frederic will take time to overcome. We’ve seen him too slow to the play for a couple of years now. He was slow in game1. I agree with your point about speed bursts, but the results I have seen aren’t logical so I don’t use them.