The Edmonton Oilers don’t have enough gas to get them to the promised land. It’s incredible, considering what the top end looks like. Please read this.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
- On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1) Actual 3-0-0
- At home to: Mammoth (1-0) Actual 0-1-0
- On the road to: Mammoth (0-0-1) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2) Actual 2-1-1
- On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
At the 1967 expansion draft, the Oakland Seals plucked a good looking defense (led by the legendary Bob Baun) and a rock solid veteran goaltender (Charlie Hodge from the Canadiens). The Seals bet on WHL players (it was an old pro league, just below the AHL in quality), while eschewing the AHL and the lush CPHL youngsters. That mistake proved fatal, and Oakland couldn’t score enough to stay in games.
These Oilers have exactly the same problem when Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard are off the ice. The GF-GA with those men hammering at five-on-five is 25-9, 74 percent goal share. When all three are at rest? 4-18, 18 percent goal share. What a miserable total. So, the five-on-five total is 29-27, 52 percent, but the gap is as harsh as any ceiling to floor imaginable.
Mike Babcock’s solution is a healthy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jason Dickinson, but these men do not lead dynamic scoring or outscoring lines. In the past three seasons, including this one, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 29-42 (41 percent) without the Glimmer Twins. The rest of the roster is 40 percent goal share without Nuge and the Glimmer Twins. What does that mean? Nugent-Hopkins is the personification of the Oilers when the Glimmer Twins are off the ice. There is no spike. He is a wonderful player, but not a driver of offense at five-on-five. Never has been.
The numbers show it, fans know it. Babcock will need to discover it. I think Babcock believes Nuge-Hyman will form a strong scoring line, but they are 42 percent goal share over those three seasons. What about Savoe-Nuge-Hyman? Three minutes together over those three years. Maybe it’s a solution, but there isn’t much size on the line and I’m not sure Babcock even tries it.
The GA-60 five-on-five for the second pairing is workable, if less than ideal. However, Babcock needs a goal scorer and I don’t see one who can save the Nuge line. At some point, Babcock will need to check down.
I would love to see Podkolzin-Nuge-Hyman as a third line, suspect they could deliver a healthy outscoring number. How would one get there? Well, it would require Connor McDavid to play with Matt Savoie plus Frederic or Dach; Leon Draisaitl might get Ike Howard and Kasperi Kapanen. I don’t think Babcock believes in that kind of deployment, and I’m not sure he can talk McDavid or Draisaitl into it. We are left with watching a generational talent deliver a regular season for the ages. Wonderful. However, it will mean Stanley remains out of reach.
On the Lowdown today, we celebrate Jonathan Willis and the release of his book How to Win Forever, just out today! It’s a fantastic day for the Oilogosphere and a celebration of success for a man who once graced these pages. He’ll hit the air with us at 12:40. Kevin McCurdy will be our guest at 1, we’ll chat about the Nuge line, what to make of the practice units yesterday, and how long this uneasy run will last. We’ll talk World Series, CFL weekend and more. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Can the Edmonton Oilers’ second defence pair stand up to the pressure?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7729443/2026/10/28/edmonton-oilers-defence-connor-murphy-stats/
Maybe?
Spector has an article today carrying Babcock’s water by claiming that his deployment/handling of Howard as “slow cooking” his development, and putting him in the best position to succeed.
I can’t understand in what world playing him 9min a night with fringe NHLers is anywhere close to putting him in a position to succeed. Apparently he’s playing with Dickinson and Joseph tonight …
I think Dickinson is an upgrade for Howard. He’s responsible defensively, but has had stretches where he is a threat at the other end too. This may give Howard some more speed and offensive instinct to work with than before.
What makes you think playing Howard with Connor & Leon puts him in a place to succeed?
He should be able to succeed with whoever he plays with.
With Hyman on IR again the depth just took another hit. This would be the exact right time to spread out the wealth in the top 6. We know Podz Drai and Kap works, and we know McDavid and Nuge work together and could fit nicely with a certain young scoring forward who is currently playing 7 minutes a night and could use an opportunity to thrive. Dickinson will help the dumpster fire of a third line also. It isn’t too complex, but stubbornness rules the day yet again.
McDavid is pretty good but he still needs better winger than what you’re suggesting.
If RNH isn’t good enough to play with McDavid and history shows he doesn’t drive a line then what do you propose be done with RNH?
Having high standards for a team with the two best players in the world is not “complaining”, it is completely reasonable.
Not that every person is being reasonable – but the concept is fine.
They finally had a stretch where they put up the sort of record they should be able to for a lot of the season. They’ve been falling off and can be much better. Some key decisions would help that. It’s really that simple.
I am looking forward to going to the Flame game tonight albeit nervous about Cooley.
Man, the doom and gloom here. I wish Babcock would play Howard more but I am willing to be patient. He may be on the 4th line with the likes of Dickinson until dealt at the deadline.
And yeah Frederic, Walman, and Jarry are duds.
But Frederic is likely not hurting us from the pressbox when everybody is healthy. Thst is because Bowman added some depth with Joseph, Dach, Michaels, and Hallander. And then there is lightning rod Formenton… My pitchforks aren’t out on him like many posters here. Yes I am not blind and he has made some huge boner mistakes that made me angry too. But Babcock preaches aggressiveness. Formenton is skating hard, hitting a lot, getting scoring chances, but yes he needs to be tame his enthusiasm a bit and be smarter defensively. I think with time, he will be fine.
Walman was a dud but Shea, Murphy, and Emberson definitely were not. And Mukamadullin, Carfagna, and Cibulka give us options.
Jarry was a dud but Bowman may have solved our long term goaltending problem with Levi. Andersen mentoring him was a good call (I would have been happy resigning Ingram instead). Jarry won’t be hurting us as a third stringer from the pressbox when everybody is healthy.
I will cheer like crazy that Frederic, Walman and Jarry get their confidence back as I am an Oiler fan who prefers positivity over belly aching- although I am a realist.
I will also acknowledge that Bowman, despite his three blunders (I am not laying the Holloway Broberg fiasco on him), is the right GM for us. He has a good eye for young talent like Zack Sharp and he has quietly been refilling a cupboard that was totally bare.
On my fantasy keeper teams over the years, I always focus on my big mistakes while disregarding all the good moves I made. Like Bowman’s addition of Podkolzin. It’s natural. Same for us Oiler fans. What if we signed Kuemper instead of Campbell? Yada yada.
But Bowman did put Hawks over the top a couple times with gutsy deadline deals and I want a GM with guts (but no more Panarin for Saad deals) and the eyes to make smart, low key adds. Holland was too lazy – just looking for old guys.
Good post and fair assessment. My favourite thing about Bowman is he seems to really value and listen to Parkatti and it seems Parkatti’s influence is growing. I think that is the closest we’ll get to Tulsky/Mehta type management. Bowman has made good decisions IMO since ~ March. Some questionable moves before that.
Frederic, Jarry, etc. do hurt us from the pressbox because their albatross contracts make them difficult to move + take up cap $ that the team could be spending elsewhere.
Criticizing Holland as “just looking for old guys” when Bowman’s signature additions to date have been Jarry, Murphy, Dickinson, Frederic, and Andersen, all over 30 except Frederic who was hurt.
Hard to look past the horrible contracts Bowman has handed out/taken on and credit him for trades for depth pieces like Jospeh, Dach, etc.
Yikes 4-18 GF/GA is something even analytics deniers cannot ignore…
It’s always concerning when there are solutions that 90% of fans agree on (both analytics and see them good folks!) and aren’t tried.
Like the classroom, you want to set up people to succeed or you risk losing them. If they keep failing, there is no point giving them the same challenging task. They need something easier to start building little wins and then you can increase the challenge incrementally. It seems like the bottom 9 could use some help and confidence….
Yea, the team is missing half their top 6, their shut down center, multiple other injuries.
When 3/4 of your forward group is playing above their optimal slotting on the depth chart, numbers are typically not going to be favorable.
Seems like the bottom 9 could use some healthy bodies first and foremost.
Reading these comments would suggest the Oilers are 2-8-2 instead of 8-2-2. Win tonight and they would be tied for 2nd overall with a game in hand on first place Carolina. This is crazy.
Don’t misread my comments below, I am loving this season. Very fun to watch. I just don’t think you can win in the playoffs when three lines are getting shelled on a nightly basis.
We’re going to ignore that an entire 2nd line has been injured nearly the entire season?
Their shut down C has been injured nearly the entire season?
Several others have been in and out with injuries?
Their new #1 goaltender is on the shelf?
Babcock has the Oilers near the top of the league while the entire middle of the roster has been on the IR leaving the coaching staff having to play a half dozen AHLers and another handful of regulars too far up the line up?
What a shocking revelation that they would have difficulty in the playoffs if theyre suffering from a long list of injuries.
WE HAVENT SEEN THE BABCOCK OILERS AT FULL HEALTH.
No one has any idea what the Babcock Oilers will look like in the playoffs and what they can and can’t do. We haven’t even seen 1 regular season game of it.
All these all knowing proclamations being made… Good grief.
Excuses excuses. All teams have injuries. Good grief.
Also, Anderson, Hyman, and Dicky are ageing and have lengthy resume of injuries. No reason to expect this team ever gets fully healthy.
And they’re managing well.
No one is denying any of that. You sure are on a roll of putting words in people’s mouths.
There’s a long way to go before the playoffs begin.
What’s the points percentage?
.750 (2nd)
The 5 on 5 goal share?
29-27 (52%)
Powerplay percentage?
35% (1st)
We’re doomed.
5v5 goal share is 15th. PK is 26th.
Maybe with a Levi/Andersen duo in net, Dickenson back, and deadline trade of Howard out/some other piece in the 5v5 and PK will be good enough in the playoffs. This team is just one piece away.
Did you read LT’s blog remarks?
Fair comment. It is also fair to wonder why the coach is sticking to a strategy that makes his 2-4 lines less effective. While the top guys might love playing together, and the need to build consistent linemates is part of the coach’s system, there is still a need for more in the bottom part of the lineup.
There is a way to make it happen, but so far we are not seeing it, and it does raise questions about the long-term competitiveness of the team.
What are you going to say if they win the division or conference running 97 and 29 together all year?
That they’ll be too tired to win the cup because of it.
The same thing we said last year when they got bounced in the first round – “WE NEED MORE DEPTH”
its concerning because we know McDrai are good. We don’t have to worry about them. The issue the last couple years has been the teams goal share when they are off the ice. Anything in the 30s is not good enough.
the big positives so far IMO are Levi and Shea. But I don’t take much comfort in McDrai being amazing while the rest of the team is getting pummelled.
Exactly.
Babcock has been thoroughly unimpressive. Looks the part of a guy who hasn’t had a new idea since 2009 and is just going to stubbornly dig in his heels and do things “his way”.
To me the scoring balance issue is not having the right mix at C. I think the D group has seen it’s puck moving ability upgraded to the point they can feed the bottom 6 the puck well enough
There aren’t many wingers that can drive the offense for a line, and they aren’t in anybody’s bottom 6. Dickinson might be able to do enough for a well made 3rd line to contribute more. If he could stay healthy so Bab can try to find a good mix for him
Right now Michaels and Samanski might get to treading water, but they don’t add much on the attack side. If this game isn’t an improvement, they are better off going for better balance and using the Duo together strategically. At least they are getting a good picture of what they have and what they need
What are the splits on most teams? Just curious. Suspect oilers are more drastic but of the top half of the league are their top lines vs their bottom 6 or 9 similar? Whats an average bottom 6 %?
Whats a reasonable goal? 45%? Or is that not fair to the bottom 6?
Not justifying the present numbers. Just curious where the (as lowetide puts it) “reasonable expectations” should be?
I second this inquiry.
/lays back. does nothing.
without Makar and MacKinnon, the Avs are 15-12
Without Eichel and Marner, Vegas is 13-13
Without Boldy and Ek, Minny is 13-15
My hunch is that contending teams bottom six will have a GF% greater than 47%
I posted this on the 23rd “I got AI to build this look at the top 6 teams from each conference and their EV Goals by line and pair, which is binned for comparison by EV TOI/GP (a proxy for usage), making sure that the player games played for each line and pair match team games
So the ‘first line’ total for every player deemed to have played on it based on EV TOI/GP, for the Oilers would total 30 GP (3 players X 10GP). You might have 6 guys in the ‘first line’ bin, but their total games played matches the team’s 30GP. It’s not perfect but tries to wash out all the injuries many teams have including us, first 10 games”
The Oilers at that point were off the average with Line 4 and Pair 3. To me that indicates GA are also a problem
Team ——— L 1 –Line 2–Line 3–Line 4–Pair1–Pair2–Pair3
Boston ——-0.82—0.64—-0.36—-0.82—-0.09—0.18—0.18
Carolina —–0.75—0.25—-0.58—-0.33—–0.08–0.08—0.17
Dallas ——-0.70—0.60 —0.30—-0.10—–0.30—0.00–0.00
Edmonton —1.20—0.50—-0.50—-0.10—–0.70—0.10–0.00
Minnesota —1.27—0.09—-0.36—-0.18—–0.09–0.09–0.00
NY Islanders 0.40—0.60—0.60—–0.30—–0.10—0.10–0.00
NY Rangers -0.92—0.42—0.50—–0.33—-0.08—-0.08–0.00
Ottawa ——0.73—0.45—-0.27—–0.27—-0.18—0.09—0.00
Seattle ——0.73—0.45—-1.00—–0.45—-0.18—0.09—0.09
Tampa Bay -1.00—-0.67—-0.67—–0.11—-0.00—0.22—0.11
Utah ———0.55—0.45—–0.27—-0.27—–0.27–0.18—0.09
Vegas ——-0.92—0.58—–0.17—-0.50—–0.33—0.17—0.00
AVERAGE—0.83—0.48—-0.47—–0.31—–0.20—0.12—0.05
What are the splits when the bottom 6 is littered with guys that wouldn’t be playing if there wasnt an substantially long list of injuries?
Let’s hope we get some goals from the bottom 9 tonight.
Just cannot believe that Bab’s does not throw Howard on the line with Nuge. Kappy has not been good for 2 games in a row. Dach has shown he has been better on the wing. You mention lack of size on line 2, so try this ( yes Howard is smaller but Dach is huge)
Howard/Nuge/Dach. Pray that Dickenson is back and run,
Freddy/Dickenson/Kappy
Jones has been terrible and Formington has been bd 2 in a row. Joseph is at least steady.
But Bab’s seems to love that 3rd/4th line. Of Formenton/Michaels/Joseph. Michaels seems to have regressed and Inwould rather see him sent down and Samanski brought up. But as we can all see Bab’s is stubborn. We are seeing this right now with Howard especially and benching guys like him and Freddy but not Formenton for example.
Oilers need a big win tonight. No clue what he runs for lines tonight except line 1. and the Formenton trio.
Jarry was good last game and we are going up against the hottest goalie in the show so let’s hope he ( Jarry) gives us another solid game.
Go Oilers
yeah I give Michaels a rest and bring back Samsky.
LT said “I’m not sure he can talk McDavid or Draisaitl into it”. I thought Babcock was brought in specifically to take charge. Same as it ever was?
The Oilers can change coaches, management, scouts, but it’s all just shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic, the names and faces change but the organization stays the same.
There is no strong, institutional presence in this organization, and no coherent plan for the future other than “try to cobble together a roster each year good enough to keep McDrai happy so they don’t leave, and we’ll deal with the consequences the next year”
The problem remains the same.
Chia blew such a hole in this team, we have needed a savant GM to get the cap, prospects, and depth organized.
Instead, we have had guide and record book and nepo baby. Neither are terrible, but neither are good enough to fill the holes.
Playing systems hockey only takes you so far. Florida and Carolina do not have the top end talent of the Oilers, but they also have higher quality depth pieces. And roids.
I forgot about the PEDs. They should really clean that up
I should add, the Oilers also don’t have the luxury of time that Carolina and Florida had. At least not with McDavid.
I liked Holland but agree with your assessment. We needed to hire Tulsky or Zito when we hired Holland.
Aw man. of all the coulda beens Zito is the biggest. Alters the entire trajectory.
We interviewed him even!! No hindsight on this one either – I wanted Zito then. I don’t think many fans wanted Holland.
His type of team is what the 80’s Oilers were. It worked without the elite talent, imagine with it
Florida and especially Carolina are “systems hockey”
Yes… and?
More than curious why you are not condemniing the incompetent that put the Oiles into this horror?
Bowman.
Terminating him immediately would be very constructive.
There is little , if any, offensive quality, beyond Hyman and RNH in the bottom 9. And even those two are limited in terms of 5 on 5 offence.
And the Oilers do not have goaltending that has enough quality to overcome that, and even Babcock can’t coach this bottom 9 to consistently break even every night 5 on 5.
If the OIlers want to win the Stanley Cup, they need to immediately and boldly add quality to thier forwards.
Winnipeg would seem an obvious target as they are now well on their way to total meltdown.
Vancouver is another alternative. Boeser or Debrusk would be modest but material improvements over what exists in the bottom 9.
Stop the delusions on Savoie and Howard.
But it begins with firing Bowman. Accountability has to apply. If OIler fans are intellecutally honest with themselves they will concede that he is as destructive as Chiarelli was as an OIler GM.
At a minimum: pump Howard/Savoie before you dump them.