Since Connor McDavid arrived in the summer of 2015, the Edmonton Oilers have been a steady newsmaker. By 2016-17, the team settled on a style: Cam Talbot stops many pucks, McDavid outscores the mistakes. In the words of Yogi Berra, this morning feels like deja vu all over again.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
- On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1) Actual 3-0-0
- At home to: Mammoth (1-0) Actual 0-1-0
- On the road to: Mammoth (0-0-1) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2) Actual 2-0-0
- On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 8-1-1, 17 points in 10 games
When you look at these numbers, it’s impossible to talk reasonably about concerns. You can’t tell a Heinz pickle nuthin’ but the truth is there all the same. In the first five games of the NHL season, the Oilers scored 17-10 (63 percent) at five-on-five. In the most recent five game run, the goal share is 48 percent (10-11 goals). Connor McDavid is averaging 23:46 per game, 47 seconds more than a year ago. Remember Mike Babcock criticizing Todd McLellan in 2016 for playing McDavid too much? Remember Mike Babcock saying he would play McDavid less?
No one cares. The Oilers are 8-1-1. Shut your whore mouth, Lowetide! You can’t tell a Heinz pickle nuthin’. Meanwhile the Oilers are 2-7 at five-on-five over the past two games.
- Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl 14:07, 5-6 shots, 1-1 goals, 48X
- Hyman-Nuge-Kapanen 13:03, 3-6 shots, 0-1 goals, 54X
- Formenton-Michaels-Joseph 7:28, 1-2 shots, 0-1 goals, 6X
- Howard-Dach-Frederic 6:22, 1-1 shots, 61X
The top line sawed off the competition, and that’s good news because the competition is Slavin-Chatfield plus plenty of the Aho line. William Carrier, the one-man equalizer, was also in photo.
A great offensive night again for the line. After 10 games, McDavid is 8-23-31 and joins Gretzky, Lemieux and Mike Bossy in passing 30 points during his tenth game. Leon Draisaitl is on a goal-a-game pace. My goodness, this appears to be peak McDavid-Draisaitl and they will both be in their 30’s in January! We need to be mindful that the Glimmer Twins floating all boats has reaped zero Stanley Cups, but the Mike Babcock system appears to be a different animal. There are concerns at even strength, but it doesn’t mean all hope is lost.
Need that second line to come through. Last night it was good, not great. I think Matt Savoie will make a difference, and we need to give Nuge and Zach Hyman time to get going. As of this morning, McDavid-Draisaitl together and solo own a five-on-five goal share of 77 percent (20-6), the rest of the team is 7-15, 32 percent. I’m not going to talk about splitting McDavid-Draisaitl until they cool down, because it makes sense to run them. However, the need for the second line to roar is obvious.
Which brings us to the third line and it isn’t working, folks. The trio has a 42 percent goal share and a 38 percent expected share. Brind’Amour got Seth Jarvis out against the Michaels’ line for 5:36 and it was 2-0 goals fast as lightning. Need a fix.
The fourth line did well. In 57 minutes this season, Frederic-Howard are 2-2 goals and 46 expected. I hope Babcock increases their minutes.
All in all, McDavid-Draisiatl won the day but on special teams. Edmonton’s 1-4 five-on-five goals, added to the previous game (1-3), makes me feel like the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to be a load tomorrow night. Babcock needs these fellows to tighten up like Archie Bell and the Drells. Leafs aren’t the Hurricanes. That’s a blessing.
- Shea-Murphy 16:52, 1-6 shots, 51X
- Ekholm-Bouchard 11:16, 2-5 shots, 0-1 goals, 34X
- Walman-Emberson 7:02, 0-2 shots, 0-1 goals, 0X
- Shea-Bouchard 5:06, 2-4 shots, 23X
- Walman-Bouchard 4:39, 3-1 shots, 1-1 goals, 69X
- Shea-Emberson 2:01, 1-0 shots, 81X
- Devon Levi 17-21 .810 (five-on-five) 22-27, .815 (overall)
Devon Levi made some huge stops in this game, and it was a wild one. You may want to give him a failing grade, but for me I thought he was probably the third star of the game. All of Ekholm, Bouchard and Walman had moments to forget, but that is going to happen against great teams. You want Ekholm to win that puck race but it wasn’t a fair one since he had to turn and then go.Bouchard had a couple of moments that don’t look good on film and Walman has chaos but the team needs him. The Shea-Murphy shots versus expected goals is hilarious.
Ekholm out means Shakir Mukhamadullin in and possibly Damien Carfagna or Tomas Cibulka up from the farm. I think Babcock will go Walman-Bouchard, Shea-Murphy, Mukhamadullin-Emberson. I would like to see Carfagna.
On the Lowdown today, Steve Lansky drops in to talk about the Oilers winning streak, the Leafs coming to town, the snow and I’ll ask his opinion of Devon Levi. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and YouTube.
Summarizing!
A night to forget for the NAmateurs.
Only two of the eight skaters in action (Lewandowski and Fischer) hit the scoreboard, each picking up an assist.
Cameron was shelled for five goals on 26 shots before getting pulled early in the 3rd.
Barnett, Lafreniere, Sharp, Berry, Berzkalns and Wakely were forbidden soup.
Park did not dress.
Did you go Daft Punk today LT? Great song and album from way back in ought-1
Yes I did.
Awesome, that made my day!
Condors are such a strange team this year. Goals including all game stats 15-19. That includes:
9 even strength gosals for, 4PP goals for, 2PK for
7 even strength goals against, 10 PP goals against, 2PK goals against
Defense tonight for the Condors: Carfagna, Cibulka, Brown, Stillman, Sjolund, Akey.
If they’re bringing someone up, I guess they’re sitting tomorrow as they won’t be fresh and won’t be getting in tonight.
Akey is the only one left from 5 years of Holland trading everything but the kitchen sink. It’s quite impressive how Bowman’s crew has globetrotted to find a few crumbs here and there.
Man these World Series commentators are generic and boring. Whatever happened to great baseball broadcasters like Vin Scully, Tim McCarver, and Bob Costas.
Vin Scully could have read the phonebook and made it interesting.
These guys now? “The Rays are going ray!” Seriously?
We were so lucky growing up when it came to all sports including hockey. Danny Gallivan-Dick Irwin-Dan Kelly-Jim Robson Harry Neale- Mickey Redmond-Lou Nanne-Don wittman etc. The greatest is Rod Phillips. This is what happens when a small minority gets offended at the sound of a person saying anything that they find offensive so you end up with a boring telecast crew. Bryan Hall would have been fired 10 times over. The Eskimos were a big deal in the 60’s-70’s-80’s before the Oilers came on the scene the whole city was electric game day at Clarke Stadium and then Commonwealth in 78.
Danny Gallivan was great. “A cannonading drive!”
“It’s Fiddler on the boards, as opposed to Fiddler on the roof”
They need to call up this guy.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/H9M0BFje3NE
Any news on Ekholm? Very costly win it’s a good thing we banked some wins, hopefully we take 2 out of 3 to end the homestand
He’s in concussion protocol which is automatically one week. Gregor said that he was in the locker room afte the game and was talking with his teammates, but you never know with a head injury.
Thanks if he’s only gone the next 3 home games then there’s no panic to pick-up another D if Shakir has glaring struggles. Ekholm could probably use some down time hopefully he’s ready for the road trip. It’ll be a good opportunity to assess Shakir who should be chomping at the bit. What ever happened to Regula?
Still imjured last I heard. Im interested in who they’ll recall. Carfagna and Cibulka are impressive young blue, Josh Brown got plenty of talk from the coach before training camp and Riley Stillman is the veteran lefty option.
Where’s Regula? I’m guessing he’s hurt again with an undisclosed injury. This is a real opportunity for everyone not named Brown.
LTIR.
Levi to IR, Tomkins recalled.
Man that sucks. Levi was a big part of the first 10 games (won six).
Jarry goes directly to the hot plate his last start at home he was almost tarred and feathered.
He’s played well since, and there are no real alternatives to running Jarry. Lots riding on him now, because the start has been so good Babcock won’t want to lose momentum.
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-oilers-place-levi-on-ir-tomkins-recalled-on-emergency-basis
What is the minimum time length he has to spend on IR since it’s emergency call-up? Are goalies different?
When a player, including a goalie, is placed on IR, it’s a minimum of 7 days..
It looks like 32 year-old Tomkins is going to see some action. Six career starts maybe he’ll be another Pickard and lead us to the conference final. Jarry has looked good after that debacle in game one. If Jarry lays a bunch of eggs or pulls a groin in the next 2 weeks will be wishing we had Pickard.
Terrible news. So many injuries this short season
They must overtrain. I rewatch a lot of games from the 80’s it was brutal some of the hits Wendel Clarke-McSorely etc etc layed on the opposition. Maybe it’s because these kids grow up with very little hitting. Hell our road hockey games involving the whole neighborhood on the front street in the early 70’s had more hits than most NHL games today.
Any word on Levi? Did someone who was at the game notice anything with Levi? Shaking his arm or leg like he tweaked something.
No official word yet, just out tomorrow so far.
Watching the game I noticed approximately partway thru he seemed to tweak something lower body, was stretching it a bit before the following faceoff.
Clearly showed no ill effects the rest of the game and really just played even better to the end haha.
My optimistic take is based on the above, minor lower body pull of some sort that was fine but stiffened up post game so they are being cautious now. Would honestly be quite surprised if it was long term but I have been wrong many a time before.
Something stiffened up overnight I’m hoping it’s not a knee.
Love the trade, of course, but I haven’t seen Shak particularly good myself. He still might have some development runway.
What do you folks think?
Is he a problem child? Didn’t he go to Grier and ask to be traded because of ice-time. Well he’s going to get a fair opportunity by Babcock as Mike is still assessing players hopefully Skakir is a gem.
I’m hopeful, but could see him taking time. Seems ‘young’ but has talent and potential. No numbers to back it up, but he’s got an interesting back story too.
Glad Podz is here to support him, on a cultural/language level
Without the puck he seems awkward, physically weak. Has to get stronger
With the puck his legs are an asset for getting the puck going North.
Potential is there but he’d have to make a big jump to not be a liability come playoff time this season.
Might be more of a next year contributor
I haven’t seen him good but realize he doesn’t have much of a resume and wish Oilers could send him down to develop on the farm.
Is he waiver exempt?
Last couple cup winners and their offshoots had GM’s that were putting forward assets for Bucky. Anybody could’ve matched that return. New Jersey actually gained cap space in the trade.
These trades are doable, and smart people are putting their names in the hat when stability is available.
From Mehta:
“Money spent in goal cannot be spent somewhere else. Goaltending has changed dramatically during the past 20 years. Starters and backups are extremely talented, which can make performance difficult to predict. Because there is randomness at the position, I’m reluctant to invest significant assets there instead of in areas where the results may be more predictable.
Maybe 3 guys are predictable. He got one of them. Man I wish they traded for Swayman.
I think the Oil need at least 1 more difference maker, preferably top 6 or Ekholm upgrade (Edvinsson?) now that a true goalie option is gone.
Pick up the phone Stan!
Top 6 high end EV Performers: Robertson (likely rental) Kempe, Forsberg, Konecny/Michkov/Tippett.
Debrincat would have been absolutely perfect. The one thing Horcoff was allowed to do was smart smart smart.
Put it in the books – October 23 2:03pm mt. I’m putting my chips all in, oilers win the cup this year. Davo just has the look of someone that won’t be denied, no excuses, there’s no stopping him this year. If he has to play 50min/game in the playoffs he will.
Welcome to the club.
Keep Draisaitl and McDavid together. Not because of the heater but because of ice time.
McDavid and Draisaitl are going to play around 18 minutes 5×5 a game. If you split them up that’s 36 minutes, add an average of 5 minutes of PP time and 5 minutes of PK time a game.
That leaves an average of 7 minutes a game for lines 3 and 4.
We have complained for years about the bottom 6 being ineffective. It is very difficult to contribute and get into the flow of the game with only 7 minutes a night.
Its great to have this vision of a 4 line team, but in the current cap environment if you have 3 lines with some bottom 6 guys that can PK then you can win.
I would say with the level the Ferraris are at the bottom six need to accept and be mentally prepared for their 9-14 shifts.
Goal should be to maximize the ice time of your best players without burning them out. Its a balance. This is where getting out to a lead once every 3 games or so really helps. Then have some cushion to involve more players and lessen the load on top end.
If youre in a close game then the top end is going to be high minutes.
Thats why I like the Power wins stat
I think there are multiple scenarios where a Ferrari on each line makes their line mates better and the team is better as a whole.
Also more pressure on the opposition which should make for easier sledding for line 3.
06 Oilers had 3 lines rolling – That should be the goal come playoff time IMO
Oilers may not announcement the call-ups until tomorrow but we’ll know by which goalies is starting for the Condors (presumably Ungar) and which d-man isn’t playing (presumably Carfagna).
I got my buddy AI to build this look at the top 6 teams from each conference and their EV Goals by line and pair, which is binned for comparison by EV TOI/GP (a proxy for usage), making sure that the player games played for each line and pair match team games. So the ‘first line’ total for every player deemed to have played on it based on EV TOI/GP, for the Oilers would total 30 GP (3 players X 10GP). You might have 6 guys in the ‘first line’ bin, but their total games played matches the team’s 30GP. It’s not perfect but tries to wash out all the injuries many teams have including us
Sorry can’t figure out a fancy way to post it, and got timed out:
Team ——— L 1 –Line 2–Line 3–Line 4–Pair1–Pair2–Pair3
Boston ——-0.82—0.64—-0.36—-0.82—-0.09—0.18—0.18
Carolina —–0.75—0.25—-0.58—-0.33—–0.08–0.08—0.17
Dallas ——-0.70—0.60 —0.30—-0.10—–0.30—0.00–0.00
Edmonton —1.20—0.50—-0.50—-0.10—–0.70—0.10–0.00
Minnesota —1.27—0.09—-0.36—-0.18—–0.09–0.09–0.00
NY Islanders 0.40—0.60—0.60—–0.30—–0.10—0.10–0.00
NY Rangers -0.92—0.42—0.50—–0.33—-0.08—-0.08–0.00
Ottawa ——0.73—0.45—-0.27—–0.27—-0.18—0.09—0.00
Seattle ——0.73—0.45—-1.00—–0.45—-0.18—0.09—0.09
Tampa Bay -1.00—-0.67—-0.67—–0.11—-0.00—0.22—0.11
Utah ———0.55—0.45—–0.27—-0.27—–0.27–0.18—0.09
Vegas ——-0.92—0.58—–0.17—-0.50—–0.33—0.17—0.00
AVERAGE—0.83—0.48—-0.47—–0.31—–0.20—0.12—0.05
late to read this but thanks. shows many teams are top heavy … imagine if any team can get a little bump from lines 2-4 … Cup Champ
That was such entertainment, and such a good measurement game. The Canes are like robots. They have been programmed play the same, go to the same spots, do the same things and do it with speed and battle.
There is a lesson here for the Oilers and that is just how effective you can play when everyone buys into the structure and game plan.
That Canes game plan had them run through Stanley Cup playoffs in 19 games. Repeatable performance. This is where Oilers are trying to go.
Fully healthy you could debate what team has the most talent, except top line where Oilers have overwhelming advantage.
Still, when you have a smothering pressure style, hardly even trying to score, but just waiting for opportunity to present, it is possible to shut down a top line.
Who would win a seven game series?
Right now the Canes but we’ll see down the road
Need at least 1 better skating D for this series
That’s Ekholm or Murphy
Per Stauff (remember, coach alluded to Shakir being a placeholder):
Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl
Kapanen-RNH-Hyman
Formenton-Michaels-Joseph
Jones-Dach-Hallander
Howard-Frederic
Mukhamadullin-Bouchard
Shea-Murphy
Walman-Emberson
Dickinson
Jarry
Jones and Hallander over Howard and Frederic – terrible.
Jones has been sitting awhile, he has the capability to be a force. He usually comes out like a man possessed then he fizzles the next game and the game after. Babcock has the room to keep assessing. Hallander can also give you a strong game as well.
Jones has never “been a force” in the NHL, well, at least not as an Oiler.
He’s had a couple of really strong games after he was traded and last year as well, consistency is definitely his problem . If he’s so terrible why is Mike putting him in?
Ive liked alot of what Babcock has done, Jones is however absolutely dog water out there.
I’ll take Jones to score a goal next game. Keep them fresh keep them hungry and then turn them loose.
This is extremely untrue lol
Howard did not have his best game. He is quick but he lost a lot of puck battles and struggled to move the puck. Just one game though, I wonder if that line up stays “as is” for Saturday.
he is just trying to push someone to grab a role. take a role
Muhk has no business being paired with Bouchard, Jones shouldn’t be in the league.
It looks like Mukh is a placeholder there, whoever is coming up from Bake will slot into that spot and Mukh will go to the pressbox.
Carfagna time?
I see that, I dont have a problem with Muhk playing 3rd pairing minutes but seeing Carfagna get a game would be a nice development.
Neither should be paired with Bouchard.
He doesn’t but the posting of it (both times) came with the context for that.
Ah yes I should of checked first knowing you would have multiple posts about the same thing.
Thats on me.
Ok OP, I love your contributions but 25 posts so far. You’ve worn me down.
Jarry starts tomorrow.
Levi was not at practice and won’t be available for tomorrow – they are calling up a goalie to back-up tomorrow……..
Also calling up a d-man. Shakir was with Bouchard but coach indicated that was a placeholder. Odd, are they keeping Shakir out and putting the call-up right with Bouchard?
A Levi injury would be terrible timing but such an Oilers timeline.
It’s time for a rested Jarry to step-up and keep this winning streak going.
Nuge sure had the sniffles. Any idea if their is sickness in the dressing room?
That’s a post game Nuge specialty, sickness or not, sniffle McGee.
Nuge has had the sniffles in every post-skate interview he’s done since drafted – always.
Everyone had the sniffles in the 80’s.
I almost ran into the Nuge coming out of a Shoppers today…
I think Shea is very much higher in the batting order than Walman. Big fan of that acquisition
That is looking like an amazing contract already. I almost feel guilty about it
He quietly does his job there’s no drama. Walman trying to hard he needs to lay a few bodies out at the blue line.
Babcock sums it up well:
“We just didn’t win enough battles,” Babcock said. “The game’s so simple, and Carolina plays it simpler than anyone else. They’re not tricking you. They’re not doing anything fancy. They get it out, they get it in, they get all over you, catch you from behind, and then they do it again shift after shift. For me, it was like a gift, and what I mean by that is we got a lot of lessons there today that we can build off. We have to learn to be way more resilient. When we bend, we can’t break like that. You just gotta hang in there.”
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/feature-weathering-the-storm
Carolina’s execution is something else.
Carolina will have problems with physical teams like the Panthers and Tampa.
That’s a great quote.
Whatever his warts may be, Babcock is a gift to Edmonton sportswriters.
I wish i read this before I posted, but I agree absolutely, and the Oilers can really learn here.
In the end, Carolina did infact break.
So much for getting clobbered like so many people in these parts wanted.
I think we have to allow for some luck, as the tying goal certainly had some good fortune attached on the way into the net.
Wow – the Jets didn’t waste long before getting rid of the problem!
Mercer is a going to a good add for them … they’ve missed someone with speed and tenacity, since Ehlers left. Mercer is going to get a lot more opportunity in Winnipeg than he had in NJ.
Surprised they didn’t get a first, but as I said a few days ago … NHL GMs want proven commodities back when trading away superstars players.
We would’ve had to trade away something like Podkolzin, Howard and Levi to match what NJ gave up … I’d rather keep Podz and Levi + the difference in cap space.
Winnipeg were fools to not let Hellebuyck rot in suspension.
He had no right to demand a trade.
And to make it worse Winnipeg got nothing back for him.
Winnipeg couldn’t do that. Hellebuyck made it known just before the season started he would report. Winnipeg was allowed to suspend him for a “reasonable length” for not reporting to training camp. Winnipeg and the NHLPA came to an agreement on how long a “reasonable length” was. Time was up.
They were not permitted to continue to suspend him act today.
His Olympic buddies told him to get the fuk out of Winnipeg. He probably went where he wanted. I thought Chevy had balls this just opened the door for more whiners to quit on their team and city.
Who wants a guy that quit on his team. Hellebuych has wilted in the playoffs with good Jet teams. The God Medal he stole from us deserves accolades but it’s only one game.
I apply a similar belief to Larkin.
The Captain as well what was he thinking. Nobody is going to feel sorry for a gifted hockey player making sic moolah. I know Horcoff is trying to pump and dump him but I would sit him until the cows come home. Make an example of Larkin now that the Cap is way up they all want to be on a super team. I wouldn’t poison my team with 2 crybabies that feel they’re underpaid because Leo flukes out and gets that ridiculous contract.
Larkin didn’t skip training camp. He asked for a trade, and then his agent went to the media with it. The NHLPA would have a field day if Detroit tried to sit Larkin without cause.
Bucky also asked for a trade in April. Chevy had all summer. The return he got is okay, nothing special.
Detroit can sit him all they want. NHLPA would only have a gripe if they didn’t want to pay him, which I’m assuming is what you meant.
Healthy scratch him. Let Larkin agent find an acceptable deal kinda like Lucic agent did in my opinion. They all want max money on their contacts. Why did he take the C? Did him and Yzerman have it out? Is that why Yzerman who bled and bleeds Detroit was replaced.
I thought Howard as a 21 year-old would step in and put up 18 year-old Mercer numbers last year which was 17 goals. Of any Player in the league Howard is Mercer. Instead Howard is reinventing his game as a 4th line scrub energy player. I said it many times that Howard is not a fit here he needs to see the second minute of the power play which he probably won’t. Howard still has value as a shoot first Hobey Baker winner. Howard needs ice-time and a playmaker driver and he will score. I wonder if his agent has asked for a trade yet?
There’s a different feel with Mike as I believe he has taking the heat off of Connor and Leon who have never looked happier. Nice to see a goalie win in shootout instead of a certain loss with the last guy we had. Babcock is still assessing as he still has breathing room. Is it me or we getting a Babcock bounce with the reffing? Maybe it’s because we’re a way faster team this year. Obviously as an Oilers fan I thought we would our Division. I also predicted Andersen would start game one in net when the real season kicks off.
Re: Anderson…I hope not, I’m hopeful that by the time Anderson is ready to play that Levi has established himself as the clear #1 going forward and Anderson fills in as a really good 1B.I f Levi has not done that than that probably doesn’t bode well for his future or our season.
In a perfect world Levi runs with it, Jarry establishes a little bit of trade value and when Anderson comes back we run with 3 goalies until he gets his game going and we flip Jarry at the deadline for something that’s not just a cap dump where we have to retain.
Andersen has a relationship with Babcock. If he’s in form come playoff time I have a pretty good idea who’s starting in the pressure packed first two games at home.
Good old fashioned Oil game. I bet the folks leaving that game weren’t bitchin moaning about the price of a beer and nachos that no one is forcing you to drink or eat. If you’re a boozer it’s easy to slip a mickey in and top up your diet coke. We all did back in the 80’s going to see Pink Floyd or even better game seven against the Flyers.
One day this team won’t be hard on goalie save percentages. Yesterday was not that day.
You should see the other guy though.
This comment is about both ends of the rink. 😀
Cup winners tend to be a tough out, who knew?
I guess the question to ask Babcock is: if you split up 97 & 29 and move Drai to 2C and Nuge down to 3C, doesn’t that help against teams like Carolina?
At some point, don’t you have to try it?
Maybe for a game or two. LOL.
They have 74 games to go Babcock wanted to get out of the gate. Why not let this team have fun as a happy worker is a productive worker. Give the bottom 9 time to gel and form an identity.
LT, apologies if a link like this isn’t welcome.
I’ve been reading the blog since the Detroit series in ‘06 but rarely comment. I always enjoy reading others’ perspectives but don’t often feel I have a unique enough take to jump in, so my posts are few and far between.
That said, a friend and I kept having the same argument about how much a player’s reputation and team circumstances shape how we judge trades and contracts, and it got us wondering whether we’d still hold the same opinions if we only saw the numbers, with the name stripped off and the money put in today’s cap dollars. So we built a small site to test it: https://blindgm.com/
We’ve just started posting one puzzle a day based on an actual NHL trade or contract from anywhere in the league with the player’s name hidden. Once you make your choice, you can see how it played out and eventually who it was.
I’d love some honest feedback on whether it’s worth continuing to develop and building more puzzles. If we’re on an island alone with this one, it’s still been a worthwhile evening’s conversation between friends, so no love lost. Thanks.
It’s a fun exercise to go through. Great idea. Hindsight is always 20/20 so it’s interesting to look purely at the numbers before seeing the name revealed.
This is a pretty fun link – thanks for sharing!
It’s fun, but I feel like there’s not enough information to fulfill the ‘pretend to be a GM’ fantasy. Since I’m already trying to game it by figuring out who the player is based on the existing information instead of evaluating the given information, I don’t recommend adding more clues.
It is a bit of an impossible task to add the context you’d actually want as GM about the player’s current situation and the situation they’ll be going into without ruining the fun of it.
Good stuff though. +1
Yeah, that’s the crux of it, right? There’s always extenuating circumstances that justify the decision, so how do you strip the emotion out of it fully? It’s an impossible task, but a fun exercise.
Love it!
I really love this!
Fantstic idea Stephen, well done and thanks for sharing! Have you considered connecting with various NHL-related websites to see if they would include your site in their links sections (if they have them).
Puckpedia comes to mind….
All the best to you and your collaborator with this fun site!
Congrats to Stu Skinner, he is going to have a real chance to re-establish himself as a 1A this season.
He has been running with it out of the gate so far, so hoping it continues for him.
My position on the 3rd line is clear, by eye and by number it is not working. Last night was the latest most egregious example.
If I had my druthers Formenton is sent down (to learn what the defensive zone is for), and Samanski comes up to help that line saw off their minutes. Someone in the organization has got to be able to show Babcock that his bet on those 3 is not working.
Formenton is big-fast and kills penalties he’s been out of the NHL grind for 4 years. He has a heavy shot and he’s been getting chances.
Formenton is the first I axe from the current line up.
Some of that may be true but he is, by far, the worst defensive player (to my eye so far this season) on a line that is just running around in their own zone and hanging on 70% of the time, literally.
I don’t think he’s going anywhere but I think the coach is over-using/over-trusting him.
Perhaps he will be better when on the 4th line.
We see it differently his speed wears on a team as the game goes on. Give that line a chance Rome wasn’t built overnight. Formenton has been getting really good chance so has Joseph. Michael’s is a pacesetter for the hypochondriac Dickinson.
Give it a chance – it’s been together since camp and hasn’t been strayed from since Formenton started a game up the lineup. It’s currently leaking chances (has all year) and almost cost the team the game last night with the late goal against.
Some of it has been score effects we went to the prevent defence against Minny in which Joseph scored. Joseph also scored on a breakaway against Utah he also missed a couple of breakaways. Michael’s scored a huge goal against Seattle. Formenton does the same against San Jose. Michael’s wins 2 huge faceoffs against San Jose which doesn’t go unnoticed by the coach and myself. This line is playing other lines that make 5 times more. What do you want from these guys? They’re being asked to play above their weight class and they are doing an admirable job in my opinion. Who are you going to replace them with? Let’s be realistic we’re not getting Crosby-Scheifele as our 3rd line Centre.
Are you saying that Formenton could use some fermentin’?
McCurdy Numbers Games 1-10
I used to love Bruce McCurdy’s CoH numerical recap of each 10-game segment, and have taken the leisure of providing some analysis using his style.
The MAJOR contributors:
McDavid 8-23-31 +18 We are not worthy!
Draisaitl 10-11-21 +14 A goal a game for big Leon
Bouchard 7-12-19 +16 Bouch Norris playing his best hockey and it is sublime.
The NHL’s three top scorers.
Three of the top-4 in plus /minus (Ekholm is #3).
McDavid’s 3.1 points per game is outscoring 16 NHL Teams, let alone individual players.
Other major contributors:
Podkolzin 7-5-12 +10 The big Russian is the perfect puck hound / sniper for the glimmer twins. Best value contract in the league!
Ekholm 1-2-3 +15 Still a tower of strength at evens.
Secondary scoring:
Joseph 2-3-5 -2 A useful bottom-6 has contributed to the scoresheet with .5 ppg
Kapanen 3-1-4 -4 “Kap” has chipped in while injured Oilers recover.
Michaels 2-2-4 -2 Some timely contributions from the rookie.
Solid & reliable:
Shea 1-2-3 +2 Coach Babcock trusts polished Dman with 23:26 TOI (third on the team)
Murphy 0-1-1 Fifth at 21:29 / G, holding steady on the second pair and PK
Intangibles
Frederic 1 goal no assists 2 big fights
Emberson +2 anchoring the 3rd pair
To the principal’s office:
Walman 7GP 0-1-1 -5 Erratic defensive play has him tied for worst +/-
Jones 5GP 0-0-0 -4 gets you a one-way ticket to the AHL
Mukhamadullin 5GP 1-0-0 -5 A rough start but playing better of late
Dach 6GP 0-0-0 -5 Not a middle-6 centre, or an NHL Center
Goalies:
Levi 7GP 6-1 3.11 .887
Some big saves, big games, and big wins for the 6-foot netminder whose play has earned him the starter’s role despite the Skinner-esque save %’s.
Jarry 3GP 2-0-1 2.97 .873
Two quality starts after a shaky opening night. Can he earn more time in the crease?
The team perspective:
Most importantly 8 wins out of 10, and 17 out of a possible 20 points for a league leading .850 points percentage.
Not surprisingly the Oilers 4.7 G / GP is tops in the league, a mark right out of the 1980’s.
Defensively their 3.2 GA / G ranks them 16th in the league, and should improve over the next segment as RNH and Dickinson return and the PK and 5v5 play without the top line tighten up.
The powerplay has come to life of late, clicking at 35.3%, second in the league only to Utah. I can foresee the Oilers sustaining a mark >30% for the season.
The PK at 72.4% ranks 23rd in the league.
Team PDO is second in the league at 106.6, and after a few starts to the season where it seemed the Oilers couldn’t finish and couldn’t get a save, the pony is paying back in full.
Hard to complain after an 8-1-1 start, but some superlative performances and strong performances from down the lineup have the Oilers off to their best October start in the McDavid era.
My expectation for the next segment is for some tighter defensive play, but I’ll undoubtedly enjoy watching McDavid and Draisaitl continue to dominate, having set a new, unimaginably higher bar for themselves.
Thanks again to Bruce who made magic out of stats pages and box scores.
Great breakdown! I think getting Dickenson back in the line up is key to improving team centre use. Dach is not so far a centre and Micheals the rookie likely needs some seasoning in the A. Also don’t see Formenton as an NHL player. Hurry back Savoie! Remain concerned by the D. I like Murphy for his physical play but he is pretty slow and doesn’t move the puck all that well. Walman is the wild card. If he can play top 4 D and hold his own we are likely fine. He has been inconsistent so who knows???? Hopefully EK not out too long.
I like your summary, just commenting on Murphy who is a really, really good defenceman. You need to watch him closely and all the little things he does. Slow yes, but he manages, hes in the right spots doing the right things. Excellent game from him last night.
I checked a couple of web sites. He is 33 and has a five year contract? Really?
So fun fact. Top rated teams Wild and Canes each only earned 1 loser point in swing through Alberta! Credit to the Flames, spits…..
Calgary doing their best to continue being a team that is not good enough to make the playoffs, but not bad enough to get a draft pick to nab a franchise player with.
Wait till season tickets double it’ll take them 10 years to get back to the team they dismantled.
If that is what a healthy Nuge looks like load management toward the end of the season may be necessary.
He was so good. He made more good defensive plays, positional, tracks, tie ups than he did in all the second half of last season….. In one game.
As well as a quick shot goal and several excellent pp plays.
Am I glass half empty? realistic?
1 – same thing that has plagued this team for 8 years. McD / Drai ON vs McD / Drai OFF. This year is no different than the last 8 (maybe sans 2024).
2- McD had an 18 (or something like that) game point streak last year and the team was mostly winning during that time. it’s not surprise they are winning now, they get spotted 3 goals a night from #97
3- The bottom six is ZERO threat to score. Against deep teams that will and has bit us.
4 – When McDrai don’t score 2+ points, we don’t win. I don’t see that changing
5 – RNH has proven he is unable to drive a line on his own. Great player, but he hasn’t been able to drive a line to over 50% Goal Share
6 – Even with a fully healthy lineup, I still think this team is 2 – 3 pieces short
7 – does the D look slow or is that just me?
8-1-1 and an All-Time McD Heater. it’s been fun to watch, but I agree with LT, it’s not a recipe for long term or playoff success.
It is extremely difficult to compare this team with any other. Brindamour said as much. No other team has the superstardom at the top of the lineup that Oilers do. Add Podkolzin and a 2nd line that can chip in and a 3rd line with Dickenson and we are seeing the best version of this team yet to come.
Things will get tighter for our top line but they can score in other ways (pp) and over time, the other lines will improve in Babcocks system too. I also think we are getting a big save or two in the right moments and if that can continue that is another positive difference. If our pk can continue to improve as well that is a huge part of winning in the playoffs.
A rested/ healthy Connor and Leon will be critical for playoffs. Last year was an anomaly due to two long runs and the shortened season plus our top guys (other than Bouch) having the extra burden of being ‘the guy’ for their Olympic squad as well.
Give the bottom nine time to form an identity. We are eventually going lose then the mob can come out and question the coaching decisions. I myself enjoy my team winning at will. We have 74 games to tighten it up. Babcock is banking points early as he should be this isn’t his first rodeo like K.K.
Lots of teachable moments for Babs from that game – goals 2, 4 and 5 against all a result of decreased situational awareness and lack of coverage. (goal 3 was a super individual effort – surprised Bouch got walked, 97 must pull that move in practice)
I bet Carolina will try hard for Hellebuyck now after last night’s goaltending debacle… nice to have that on the other guys. (edit – looks like they’ll have to outbid Jersey)
Hellebuyck reportedly traded to Jersey.
Confirmed by the Jets website. helly for Dawson Mercer, Nico Daws, Alexander Command, Nick Bjugstad (currently recovering from surgery) and 2 picks (2nd round 2029, 7th round 2027)
Jets acquire Mercer, Command and more from Devils | Winnipeg Jets
6 for 1!!
It’s a good trade if Command is good, not so much if he isn’t.
Better than going to Carolina!!!!
My concern was Colorado.
Vegas as well.
I think Jersey lost that trade
Best case scenario for us. Goes to East.Any news on who goes the other way?
The issue is not that McDavid and Draisatl play together. That is a blessing,
The real issue is the lack of any quality in the bottom 6,
Surely this is self-evident by now. And it is another indictment of Bowman.
Nothing was more condeming that the fifth Carolina goal. How is player allowed to be utterly uncovered to release the best wrist shot of his entire career? Easty if one is insistent on playing a player that is not NHL quality.
But pretty much describes the entire bottom 6.
Carolina is all structure. No one can convince me otherwise – apart from Aho.
It literally took them decades to have a playoff run that overcame thier limitations in talent and goaltending that resulted in the Stanley Cup.
And yet the Oiler bottom 6 made them look more talented than they actually are.
And last night again proved why Bouchard will never win the Norris.
The third goal of Carolina should never have happened.
it was embarassing.
Walked by Jarvis.
One of the scrubs that cost Canada a gold medal last year, if you foreget the real context.
Imagine a healthy Dickinson and Savoie in the bottom 6!!!
Bouchard got completely walked by Jarvis.
Have you seen the there goals against this past week where Makar made different but similar egregious level of errors leading to the goal?
“And last night again proved why Bouchard will never win the Norris.”
good thing Makar never got walked several times this week hey?
“Why do you do it (coach the Oilers” – Reporter to Babcock
“Because they asked me… when those kids asked me, they want to win, I think they should, so I am going to try and help them.”
Every press conference with Babcock is pretty good, but I really liked his response to this question last night.
They asked and, as part of that ask, the owner offered, what do we think, $7MM X 3 or 5?
We know he’s the highest paid coach (and DJ is the highest paid assistant) even if the number has not been disclosed, I don’t think.
Babcock is so intense he can sit and answer any question for a half another. You have coach that wants the Cup as bad as the players. He knows it’s going to take everyone pulling on the rope together not just a few star players.
My thoughts
– Draisatl is a god but his lack of urgency in OT creates an attacking point for the opposition.
– I love Leon’s comments after the game. A win against the top team in the league, and he is disappointed in the mistakes and said it wasn’t a great game for them. Babs is reaching them.
– splitting 29 and 97 will likely be dependent on the oppositions ability to contain the top line. They might be a staple at home. Regardless, splitting them will be a requirement for playoff readiness
– they should be named Oppenheimer Line because splitting them right now could yield destructive results, and 2 points today counts the same as 2 in april
Question for the coaches here – why run Dach in the middle with Freddy on the wing? If you are playing them with Howard, I feel like Dach is quicker on the wing. Is Dach better on the dot/defensively?
All three are left shots, but Freddy prefers to play RW. So IMO the pieces are all in the right spot with Dach in the middle. It does look like the bottom six needs a shake up, so we might see a different blend take shape against the Leafs. Maybe Hallander steps in somewhere, or maybe they swap out the centers on each line, or maybe they don’t change anything. I guess we’ll see what Babcock comes up with?
I’ve been wondering all season long, including training camp, why Babcock is trying to make Dach in to a center. I agree, 100%, his skill set can be more impactful on the wing, getting on on d-men, not worrying about being the high forward, etc.
Babcock really wants him to be a center though.
I see Frederic as a MUCH better defensive player than Dach. I don’t know how Freddie is on face-offs but Dach is like bottom of the league.
He’s big-fast and physical. I’m glad the salary cap has gone up and Frederic is no longer the whipping boy. Mike is slowly building him up I’m surprised he’s a scratch tomorrow has he’s been doing his job.
So math says 77% for the top line and 32% for the others. That’s 99% in total LT, stop your complaining!
It’s like Nancy Reagan at Woodstock carrying a “Don’t do drugs” sign. As you are probably aware I’m totally joking. I think we all needed a run and gun game to remind us what we can’t do in the playoffs. Bring on the Leafs!
The other team in the run and gun game was the defending Stanley cup champions.
The D ( mainly Bouch and Walman) had some bd turnovers last night. Levi made some great saves for sure. But I would expect Babcock and Smith have them tighten up for Sat.
But that was a super fun game anyways and a great win.
Also probably the worst game we have seen from the Bottom 6 this year. But Nuge’s line did a lot better than I thought they did. I was very impressed with Nuge’s career. I would luv to see them put Howard on that line for a couple.
Got tickets for the Leafs tom. Can’t wait and I hope the Oilers come out firing on all cylinders and send the thousands of Leafs fans at the game home crying and pouting.
What a fun team to watch this year.
Who gets the all up on D? Hoping it’s Carfanga, but will they bring up Brown?
That Howard is all hustle and zoomies. I like his talent and try but think we’re one half to one whole season before he actually clicks. While I’d like to see him play with higher skill I don’t actually mind how Babs is bringing him along. So long as they keep giving him reps.
That’s the question though, will they keep giving him reps?
If no forward gets hurt, someone is coming out for Dickinson (which is slated to be, potentially, tomorrow) and a forward is off the roster (I imagine they will want a 7D up when they IR Ekholm).
They could just take Howard out and send him down as opposed to Jones so that Howard is playing.
Don’t know.
Leafs lace Nick Blankenburg jon injured reserve and recalled d-men Cole McWard and Dakota Mermis.
I’m not sure if Tanev is back playing off the top of my head but the like of OEL and Riley and Radysh are going to have to do some heavy lifting against the Oi it seems.
If the Oilers lost the game like that, the comments would be unbearable.
All the naysayers to whats happening said that these past four games would show us the real Oilers, because theyre real teams.
Well, the Oilers went 3-1 and McDavid is deja vu’n the 80’s like a hair metal band.
Best team in the league.
Discussing the underlying stats is unbearable?
Thats not what Im saying at all, discussing underlying stats is one thing. If the Oilers lost the game Carolina just lost, the comments wouldn’t be discussing underlying stats and you know it.
the comments wouldn’t be discussing underlying stats and you know it
I know no such thing. I suspect it would be discussing, among other things, stats like 5v5 scoring, Line 1 vs Line 2-4 scoring, xGF and perhaps even GSAA. All of which are perfectly reasonable.
Why don’t you say what’s really on your mind instead of innuendos?
I’m not so sure naysayer would have had anything to complain about after last night tilt? Carolina are the Stanley cup champions for a reason. I think they exposed our bottom six.
But somehow Edmonton keeps manufacturing ways to win, this time in a shootout. All hail the mighty Nuge.
Interesting position given your position the last few weeks saying that splitting the “was the right thing to do” and noting that a smart coach would split them.
Once the line cools off, it’s absolutely the right thing to do. The only workaround I can see is Podkolzin-Nuge-Hyman and I don’t think Babcock will run Savoie-McDavid-Draisaitl for long. I’ve said several times, here and at The Athletic, that keeping the line together when they are single handedly winning games makes sense. Not a recipe for success, as shown by 2-7 five-on-five goals. The PP and Levi saved them. Fair. It isn’t a long term solution, just as it wasn’t in 2016-17. Seriously.
It’s funny, if they do end up having a stinker of a game, you’d have to think they’d want to go out next game and redeem themselves. What’s a coach to do?
I think Babcock will eventually check down to Podkolzin-McDavid-Hyman and Savoie-Draisaitl-Kapanen.
There’re no shortage of options.
The line has cooled off. They are 1-3 goals in the last two games.
You were adamant that breaking the up was the right thing to do, and a smart coach would do it, all season long while they were the best line in NHL history during that time working towards, something like a 15-1 goal share.
Now that they have had a bad and mediocre game at 5 on 5, you think they need to stay together until “the line cools off”.
I’m missing something here.
You certainly are.
He’s doing this against NHL players in 2026. Remember when Gretzky had over 200 points and was 70 points ahead of 2nd place, his linemate Jari Kurri. This feels like deja vu all over again.
Nuge and Hyman are going to be cooking in a few games, they’ll get up to speed. Savoie and Dickinson coming back is going to be like nectar. Ekholm going down for a bit is going to be a big test of that defensive group, but he’ll be back before we know it.
Really if there’s one worry, and it’s the same worry every team in the league has, it’s the major players avoiding injury. The Oilers have had their share of bad luck with this already and are still 8-1-1 to start the year. Once they’re all healthy I think we’ll either see a second and third line that consistently does well with Nuge and Dickinson centering them, or if it’s not working they will have the horses available to split McDrai. Babcock is a smart man, I’m very happy that he’s proving me wrong thus far.
G’Oil.
Prospectacular!
While the other NAmateurs don their skates
The House of Windsor spectates.
As expected, the Michiganders have taken over #1 in the NCAA rankings as the only 6-0 club in Div-1. They will square off this weekend vs. Western Michigan, who are now #5.
Cameron was named 1st star last time out in a 4-1 win, making 20 stops.
Lewandowski had his point streak snapped yestermatch. His chance to begin another comes in the ‘Chuk tonight.
Wakely is enjoying a fine start to his sophomore campaign with 1-5-6 in 4 GP, tops on UML.
After a slow start to his season, Berzkalns has 1-3-4 in 7 GP.
UMass-Lowell (Wakely) @ 4 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 5 p.m.
Michigan (Barnett, Park) @ 5 p.m.
Western Michigan (Lafreniere, Sharp) @ 5 p.m.
St. Thomas (Berry) @ 6 p.m.
Muskegon (Berzkalns) @ 6 p.m.
Sioux Falls (Cameron) @ 6 p.m.
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 7 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Rolling Hills time.
We had conversations this off-season re: Nugent-Hopkins (1) if he could play in the top 6 still, (2) if he “is a centre” and (3) his important to the PP.
To start with number 3, I posted the numbers, that, for 6-7 straight years now, when Nuge missed games, be it 2 games, 5 games, 10 games or 20 games, the GF/60 for PP1 went materially down – every year and without exception. Every coach and every player talked about his importance on the PP. Some still posited that he’s easily replaceable in that game state. The PP was OK for the fist 7-8 games but it didn’t look as dynamic as normal (nor did it produce at its normal levels). Well, last night was just one game but it was a statement in this regard.
For number 2, well, this one isn’t as clear and, for me, there will be ups and downs if he is “full time 2C” but, it was factual that he has had some very good stretches in that position recently, including in the playoffs, while playing with Hyman. Kap dragged them down last night but, throw Podz on that LW and, look out.
We’ve see “rested Nuge” once and it looked good.
I don’t recall people questioning RNH’s value to the PP or suggesting he is easily replaceable. Rather, I recall people suggesting that a PP consisting of McDraiBouch + Hyman should not need the likes of RNH to stir the drink. I think that’s a fair suggestion, but for whatever reason the evidence certainly shows otherwise.
Agreed. Nuge is a PP witch. The concern about Nuge is five-on-five away from 97 and 29. Last season’s evidence was strong, and let’s run last night’s Nuge isolated:
13:58, 0-1 goals, 3-7 shots, 54X
The expected goals are encouraging. Maybe Podkolzin-Nuge-Hyman can work?
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20262027&thruseason=20262027&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2026-09-29&td=2027-04-10&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8476454&p3=8477934&p4=0&p5=0
Maybe we see a resurgence of.
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Podz-Leon-Kapanen
Sometime down the road.
Kap/Nuge/Hyman were 4-1 high danger attempts and 7-2 scoring changes (presuming that is was SCF/SCA is) at 5 on 5…..
I’ve LONG suggested Podz/Nuge/Hyman – a similar make-up to the Kane/Nuge/Hyman line that crushed the Stars in the playoffs.
The powerplay is 7/11 since Hymans return.
Woo-wee and now Nuge is back.
I’ve had many conversations over the last few months defending against options that Nuge is replaceable on PP1 without impact. Most of the strong opinions on that were on other platforms but there have been suggestions on this site of moving Nuge off PP1.
That third line was tough to watch. The eye test certainly matches the numbers.
Sure was. I feel Babs is willing to give Michaels and Formenton some leash since one is a rookie and the other has been out of the NHL for a bit…especially considering the injury bug.
I’m going to suggest that Dickinson & Savoie will rectify that. I know everyone expects Savoie to be in the top six, but they might want to balance the scoring over four lines as the Carolina Hurricane do quite successfully.
Here’s hoping Walman – Bouchard become something good!
I suspect its Shea – Walman
One line/one PP group did all the scoring last night but I agree with coach that they were a two line team. The Nuge line had some huge shifts in that game, in particular in the 2nd half of the game. Nuge and Hyman were awesome late. Kapanen was awful – he’s not a top 6 player unless he’s with Leon Draisaitl and he is a poor defensive player when he’s not.
Savoie would do wonders in that spot, in due course.
Also agree with Babcock, not enough players in the bottom six going – would be great to get Dickinson and Savoie back knocking the struggling 3rd liners to the fourth line and a couple of players out.
I’d have Michaels and Formenton on notice but not sure the coach would/will look at that. Dicky could be back any day – Jones to the AHL and likely Howard out of the lineup.
I would hope they would give Howard a shot on that 2nd line with Nuge and Hyman well before the end of November when Savoie is expected back.
Savoie will need time to get up to speed. I don’t expect he will make an immediate impact.
With Kapanen struggling hard, the time for that is now but I don’t see it happening.
So far, Babcock’s more active coaching and having Levi back there has prevented the sense of impending doom that would permeate the team when things started going the least bit wrong.
Because they’re so capable, just keeping their heads right means there isn’t a game they can’t win.
And the whole message seems to be grounded in how simple this all is.
Bang on.