We had a lively discussion yesterday about the current state of the Edmonton Oilers. More than half are wondering why some of us are concerned about the current state of the team. Today, I’ll explain my concern. Please read this.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
- On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1) Actual 3-0-0
- At home to: Mammoth (1-0) Actual 0-1-0
- On the road to: Mammoth (0-0-1) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 7-1-1, 15 points in nine games
When you look at these numbers, it’s impossible to react in a negative way. Mike Babcock’s Oilers have collected 15 of a possible 18 points to start the season. Wins against quality teams (Mammoth, Wild) and a 60 percent goal share tell us this is an elite club. Add in the fact Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will play this first game tonight, Jason Dickinson will eventually be healthy and Matt Savoie should be in the lineup at some point in November? Music!
Here is my concern. The Oilers, despite the record and some encouraging results from the top line, top pairing, goaltenders and some youngsters, have been showing some wobble in recent games at five-on-five. You may say ‘who cares?’ but five-on-five is the heart of the game. The win over the WIld was special teams, and we know the refs put the whistles away in the postseason. Babcock’s Oilers have to thrive at five-on-five. That’s a fact.
As well, the coaching staff remained true to the top line in the game against Wild when there was an opportunity to split McDavid-Draisaitl. I honestly don’t understand why more of you aren’t concerned. Nuge coming back offers an option, but Babcock didn’t take the opportunity to check down and I don’t know why. His top line getting caved, his response was to keep on keeping on.
This isn’t about me sounding the alarm for impending doom. Babcock has arrived with an impressive bag of workarounds. The Oilers are less predicable with the puck, the goaltending is having real success (borne of a defensive system that is more efficient and aggressive) and the record speaks for itself.
I am saying it’s beyond curious that the coach didn’t check down in the Minnesota game.
Let’s run expected goals versus actual at five-on-five over the nine games we’ve witnessed so far this season.
- Game 1 (Van): 73X 4-3 goals
- Game 2 (Van): 61X 6-5 goals
- Game 3 (Sea): 58X, 2-0 goals
- Game 4 (Ana): 34X, 3-0 goals
- Game 5 (SJS): 70X, 3-1 goals
- Game 6 (LAK): 23X, 2-1 goals
- Game 7 (Utah): 50X, 1-1 goals
- Game 8 (Utah): 47X, 5-2 goals
- Game 9 (Min): 35X, 1-3 goals
We saw some cracks in the Anaheim game, but the Oilers (especially Draisaitl over the years) can outscore expected goals because they’re so damn good. Plus, with the power play back online, that’s a help. However. in the game against the Los Angeles Kings and the game versus Minnesota, we see those cracks reappear.
The team has eight forwards at 50 percent or more goal share five-on-five (Hyman, McDavid, Draisaitl, Podkolzin, Samanski, Formenton, Frederic, Howard) and that’s impressive. However, in the past four games, that number has been reduced to four (the top line and Kapanen).
Babcock will adjust tonight because Nugent-Hopkins is (reportedly) healthy enough to play. The Oilers have been less impressive over the last four games, and there are tools at Babcock’s disposal. Why isn’t he using them?
The Oilers are a good team, maybe a great team. Some of that record is owed to an extreme hot streak from the top line. The trio faltered once in nine games, there are no criminals on the McDavid line.
In the single game where it was obvious to all the trio wasn’t on, and could benefit from a rest against the wicked, Babcock was not only slow to adjust, the coaching staff didn’t adjust at all. I know about small samples, I use that as a hammer all the time. Maybe I’m Mr. Wrong here, but this feels like a coaching blind spot to me. I believe Mr. Babcock is a stubborn kind of fellow.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guests will be Bagged Milk from Daily Faceoff Edmonton and Janson Duench from The Athletic. We’ll also have NFL picks and Declanations, too. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
New for The Athletic: Once the Edmonton Oilers get healthy, which lineup changes are coming?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7706114/2026/10/22/edmonton-oilers-roster-lineup-injuries-2026/
First, I said it yesterday, but looking at single game xGF is just not really helpful. A single game is too swingy. I don’t think the xGF numbers are a concern at all.
Second, we should expect the non-McD numbers to be poor the longer the injury issues last. It’s easy for a guy to fill in higher in the line up for a couple of games. The longer he plays too high, adrenaline fades and the lack of skill is exposed. Bowman needs to bring in a high quality forward. They could also separate McDrai but I have given up on that.
Savoie might be that add, he was playing well last half
Too many panicking! We are 7-1-1, just starting to get healthyER. Bowman has filled several holes and the new coach is coaching players(as opposed to panic changes). The next 10-11 games will see if more players can contribute to goal scoring, if a shutdown line exists and who rises and who falls in the bottom six. And most of all, is our goltending for real. More than in recent years, the answers seem at hand. Time will tell. I’m enjoying the ride.
For me I would not tinker with the top line until we lose two in a row. The big boys are having fun. What has impressed me the most this is the solid goaltending we are getting. Forget about that 9-7 game I see that as pre season. Jarry also has to step up or he knows he is getting demoted. Anderson will be back in the new year which makes us even deeper in goal.
It’s been a real treat to see Levi not sliding all over the place. He always seems to be in the proper position with incredable athletisism. That save he made late in the third doesn’t get stopped with our old goalies. If Levi keeps this up Babs will be coach of the year !!
2.171 empty seats at the last game. Seems this market isn’t quite ready to sustain the highest ticket prices in the league after all.
Who could have seen that coming? Ya know, aside from everyone but the owner.
The thing is – it isn’t even serving the owner properly.
Who’s running the business side over there? They’re leaving money on the table by not being nearly optimized.
Whether it is food or merch or tickets – they’re not giving good advice, or it is being ignored.
I’m not concerned at the moment about what the coaches are doing. We’re 9 games in, it’s too early to judge their work in a negative way, they’re winning. But I do agree they have to improve in some areas. I’ve been mentioning shot shares, which are of course a proxy for possession – Corsi
Score effects are affecting things for sure, but to me they still need to take a step in their ability to keep dangerous pressure offensively, while maintaining their defensive discipline. Sitting back too much with a lead over time doesn’t work. Being dangerous and defensive are the hallmarks of teams that win Cups
They are scoring well, top of the league, it’s the team lulls that concern me. It was a problem in the two finals as I see it. It will be interesting to see how they fare against another high tempo aggressive team
I believe the coaches are aware of this. Babcock has said it’s a work in progress. Early in the season he said what the plan was – learn the structure, play it, and then find your game within that structure. If we don’t see progression then I’ll be concerned
Food for thought for the future. Here would be my top trade targets to start laying foundation to try and acquire. All extremely hard to get but combined odds make it somewhat achievable:
Second tier
Third tier (not exhaustive)
AI copy/paste.
Lol we are in trouble as a species.
You can place me in the “In favour” category of playing McDavid and Draisaitl together. I have been in favour of it for a while (although I don’t know if I ever commented as such, so I can’t really claim it as my idea), and I can understand Babcock’s reasoning:
Mr Lahey, is that you talking or chat gpt?
lol it’s so easy to spot. Something deeply sad about people using AI to write blog post comments.
Stunted preseason, second line injured, new coach to the team. Babcock has a different perspective. Maybe he wanted to see if his top line would have eventually turned it against the Wild’s. Maybe he credited Wallstadt more for the tight score after the first than the team in front of him. Maybe in another month Babs will see things the way you do. I’m hoping he’s successful though, so maybe he’ll change some minds around here.
Oilers fans and coverage has developed an orthodoxy. ‘Every coach has tried to play them apart, but every one of them has fallen into the trap of playing them together’ and so we see Babcock trying to play them together as stepping into the trap that all of the other coaches have fallen into. Let’s see what he does, let’s see what solutions he brings when he has a healthier roster and a little better handle on who can do what.
For me, I love the top line and wish they had more for the second line. That’s not really Babcock’s failing, that chore belongs to Bowman.
“Every once in awhile, you need to get fed your lunch” – Mike Babcock after last game. I wonder if he was watching them get fed thinking about how it would make for a great coaching opportunity.
Or… maybe we’ve gotten so used to the blender, that we’re just not used to a steady hand on the rudder. Might have felt too steady to some, but we had a 3-1 lead when Minny started putting the boots to us, so maybe he had faith they could bend and not break.
Or… the drop-off in talent from McDrai to rest of team right now is pretty stark. I don’t think he believes that the likes of Owen Michaels, Joseph and Formenton are up to the task of sawing off against a super line. If he does check down and we lose 4-3 or 5-3, I imagine we’d all be questioning what the hell he was thinking throwing raw rookies out against Quinn Hutson.
In my opinion, I suspect it’s some combination of all three.
Dear LT, good sir… I don’t recall ever arguing against your points and am not about to start now. To start we haven’t even reached the 20 game mark which I believe was the overall consensus here this summer. I will say there’s been posters here and recently (yesterday) Staples at the Cult provided some pretty impressive stats on the improvement under Babcock. Being a math blog the one I’m both ecstatic about and most concerned is PDO, which in a way you may be hammering as your main concern today inadvertently. For years we absolutely got crushed on old good luck hockey but not this year. So are we just dead ass lucky or are all these metrics a result of team buy in. It sure seems like the latter from my armchair and maths that have been brought forth. I do however agree and totally understand your concern. Until the results don’t support the team, I will stay the course with our stubborn coach but believe the quest for the grail starts and ends with our centre’s split accordingly.
LT, if you do get around to responding, just curious, as of right now, through your lens, assuming we accrue (roughly) $6M in cap throughout the season, what is your number one acquisition by position and as a bonus, what is his name?
They need a top six forward, preferably righthanded. Alex DeBrincat WAS the best option, I’m not sure who that might be now. If the Oilers could bring in a bigger winger with scoring talent that allows him to push the river with Nuge-Hyman/Savoie/Podkolzin, I’d take that all day.
Nuge is back. It will be his first game of the season. Lets see where the team stands against the champs tonight. The season is only nine games old, there’s lots of runway.
Another top six winger would be fantastic and there’s no doubt in my mind Bowman is in search of that missing piece along with every other GM in the league.
Brock Boeser ticks those boxes and is not all that far removed from a 40 goal season.
Not a burner but can play with skill.
I think the early part of the season for a new coach is about evaluation and it’s easier to evaluate the fringe players without cheat codes like mcdrai. Guessing this is part of the equation for the current deployment – and winning helps keep the pressure off changing this approach.
My only thought on why Babcock got stubborn is if he thought there would be worse results from a different match up.
Regarding the FLA game last night: The only thing that will end their BS is other teams and the players both shortening and ending careers for them playing in that way. Plain and simple.
It is the only thing that works. There was a time when these guys actually looked after each other. Not sure exactly what happened to that, but it isn’t happening right now. It needs to. Multiple players from that team should currently be in the state where they can’t play another game. It is what they have earned, deserve, and asked for. Give it to them. If you’re not going to play your opponents with respect – you get zero. Not a little. Not some. Zero.
I watched some of the game last night and it turned out to be a great ending.
100% agree on the NHL refs and the Florida Panthers. Running goalies, slashing from behind, taking on smaller players – nothing new to see here.
All NHL goalies should probably take out extra career-ending injury insurance if they are matched up against them in the playoffs.
I think it’s just a symptom of the players hating the blender last season.
This season it’s ‘figure it out’ rather than ‘switch it up’. I believe Babs is also trying to empower lower lines. ‘No help is coming, we’re not chasing clean air for the big line for a game in October.’
I don’t think Radical loyalty to stability is the plan, i think it’s just a teambuilding decision.
This is how I see it. We aren’t used to seeing a plan being implemented with a long view, and consistent work to build an actual team. As Jesse P above said winning makes it easier to stick to it
I agree with your logic here…
There’s winning the battles and there’s winning the war.
Currently the Oilers are winning the battles by winning the individual games but the to win the war and the CUP, the Oilers will have to be consistently good at 5v5 outscoring with all four lines. The entire story of the McDrai era in Edmonton is that the two stars have had to outscore the goals given up by the other players lower down in the lineup.
Elite players like McDavid and Draisaitl will eventually run cold or be shut down by other great teams like the Wild or the Mammoth at times in the season. The recipe for success then means that someone else needs to score.
While there’s glimmers of hope this year, there’s not enough bottom 9 players who we can point to and say, “we have faith that they’ll out work, out chance, out defend and outscore their opponents game in and game out”
The Oilers had a 3-1 lead well into the 3rd period. The Wild only had 3 shots in the first 7-8 mins of the 3rd. I don’t see why Babs would start tinkering with the line-up at that point given the score.
He has expressed a desire for every line to establish an identity, and has commended the big line for elevating play when needed. He wanted to see how everyone responded to being outplayed.
Now seems like the time where Sather would’ve stepped up, put together a couple of the borderline players who are currently performing decently and ship them off for a true talent.
The GM stepping up and getting them another real deal player would be rather massive.
It’s impossible to get cap space and those bottom 6ers and 3rd pairs are more valuable than difference makers 😉 .
I’d target Tippett if Philly can’t turn it around for top 6, Edvinsson if Horcoff and Detroit are crazy enough, and the goalie in Winnipeg.
If Slats was the horse trader everyone says he is, there would be some exciting new faces, agreed.
Indeed. Can’t trade when they’re going bad…or going good. Can’t trade anyone ever. But need a better team. How? Somehow. It is goofy!
I would like to go down the rabbit hole one day of how a fanbase who has seen some of the greatest players and athletes to ever do it became so obsessed with marginals. You see it today and you saw it back then.
I couldn’t stand Kelly Buchberger. He was worshipped. It was ridiculous.
Prospectulous!
Short preamble today.
The House of Windsor is in the spotlight, hung 11 in a win yestergame. Robinson had an apple while Harvey assisted not once, not twice, but thrice.
Could there be more apples tonight, seasoned with delicious goals? The answer arriveth at 5 p.m. Monarch time.
I was concerned about them not splitting up mcdavid and draisaitl, but I just can’t be concerned as long as they’re winning.
I also genuinely don’t mind leaving the lines together in game despite mcdavid and drai getting fed by the eriksson ek line. I don’t like throwing the lines in a blender mid game. I think it sends a message that it’s up to the coach to figure it out. Leaving the lines together puts the onus on the players to figure it out.
I would rather see draisaitl centering the second line after a loss, than see babcock make the change mid game.
I also appreciate not going to the blender as soon as the team experiences some adversity. I did not like how quick Knoblauch was to blow up the lines. Give them the chance to work through tough times a build some chemistry.
That being said I would still prefer to see McDavid and Draisaitl centering their own lines.