Game 10, ’26-27: Hurricanes at Oilers

We had a lively discussion yesterday about the current state of the Edmonton Oilers. More than half are wondering why some of us are concerned about the current state of the team. Today, I’ll explain my concern. Please read this.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

• At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
• On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
• At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
• On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1) Actual 3-0-0
• At home to: Mammoth (1-0) Actual 0-1-0
• On the road to: Mammoth (0-0-1) Actual 1-0-0
• At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2) Actual 1-0-0
• On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
• Expected Record: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
• Actual Record: 7-1-1, 15 points in nine games

When you look at these numbers, it’s impossible to react in a negative way. Mike Babcock’s Oilers have collected 15 of a possible 18 points to start the season. Wins against quality teams (Mammoth, Wild) and a 60 percent goal share tell us this is an elite club. Add in the fact Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will play this first game tonight, Jason Dickinson will eventually be healthy and Matt Savoie should be in the lineup at some point in November? Music!

Here is my concern. The Oilers, despite the record and some encouraging results from the top line, top pairing, goaltenders and some youngsters, have been showing some wobble in recent games at five-on-five. You may say ‘who cares?’ but five-on-five is the heart of the game. The win over the WIld was special teams, and we know the refs put the whistles away in the postseason. Babcock’s Oilers have to thrive at five-on-five. That’s a fact.

As well, the coaching staff remained true to the top line in the game against Wild when there was an opportunity to split McDavid-Draisaitl. I honestly don’t understand why more of you aren’t concerned. Nuge coming back offers an option, but Babcock didn’t take the opportunity to check down and I don’t know why. His top line getting caved, his response was to keep on keeping on.

This isn’t about me sounding the alarm for impending doom. Babcock has arrived with an impressive bag of workarounds. The Oilers are less predicable with the puck, the goaltending is having real success (borne of a defensive system that is more efficient and aggressive) and the record speaks for itself.

I am saying it’s beyond curious that the coach didn’t check down in the Minnesota game.

Let’s run expected goals versus actual at five-on-five over the nine games we’ve witnessed so far this season.

• Game 1 (Van): 73X 4-3 goals
• Game 2 (Van): 61X 6-5 goals
• Game 3 (Sea): 58X, 2-0 goals
• Game 4 (Ana): 34X, 3-0 goals
• Game 5 (SJS): 70X, 3-1 goals
• Game 6 (LAK): 23X, 2-1 goals
• Game 7 (Utah): 50X, 1-1 goals
• Game 8 (Utah): 47X, 5-2 goals
• Game 9 (Min): 35X, 1-3 goals

We saw some cracks in the Anaheim game, but the Oilers (especially Draisaitl over the years) can outscore expected goals because they’re so damn good. Plus, with the power play back online, that’s a help. However. in the game against the Los Angeles Kings and the game versus Minnesota, we see those cracks reappear.

The team has eight forwards at 50 percent or more goal share five-on-five (Hyman, McDavid, Draisaitl, Podkolzin, Samanski, Formenton, Frederic, Howard) and that’s impressive. However, in the past four games, that number has been reduced to four (the top line and Kapanen).

Babcock will adjust tonight because Nugent-Hopkins is (reportedly) healthy enough to play. The Oilers have been less impressive over the last four games, and there are tools at Babcock’s disposal. Why isn’t he using them?

The Oilers are a good team, maybe a great team. Some of that record is owed to an extreme hot streak from the top line. The trio faltered once in nine games, there are no criminals on the McDavid line.

In the single game where it was obvious to all the trio wasn’t on, and could benefit from a rest against the wicked, Babcock was not only slow to adjust, the coaching staff didn’t adjust at all. I know about small samples, I use that as a hammer all the time. Maybe I’m Mr. Wrong here, but this feels like a coaching blind spot to me. I believe Mr. Babcock is a stubborn kind of fellow.

On the Lowdown today, our feature guests will be Bagged Milk from Daily Faceoff Edmonton and Janson Duench from The Athletic. We’ll also have NFL picks and Declanations, too. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.