I was looking forward to last night’s game for several reasons. The result didn’t matter (I had this game as a loss) but there were questions to be answered. Would Mike Babcock hard match the McDavid line against the Eriksson Ek line and the Brodin-Hughes tandem all night? Even if times got rough? If he did check down to a second option, what line would he believe could serve as a bridge over troubled water? Coud Devon Levi continue his ascent to the No. 1 goalie job? Would we get some clues about how this team will run when Ryan Nugent-Hopkins returns?
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
- On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1) Actual 3-0-0
- At home to: Mammoth (1-0) Actual 0-1-0
- On the road to: Mammoth (0-0-1) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 7-1-1, 15 points in nine games
This train is rolling now. I think we’re in for a slight reckoning, but with Nugent-Hopkins just around the corner, maybe Mike Babcock will tweak the lines in an effort to give the team a different look. With the Carolina Hurricanes coming to town, it would be timely to run the Glimmer Twins on separate lines. If the lines aren’t split, expect Hyman-Nuge-Kapanen agains the Hurricanes.
- Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl 13:09, 5-9 shots, 0-2 goals, 41X
Uh-oh. All those minutes coming home to roost? Or just a brilliant opponent? I think the first GA was some bad luck (Bouchard won the puck bit it slipped away) but it we’re honest McDavid played it poorly. I think he’s a natural winger, so that’s his position, but LMHF noted in the comments section having Mattias Ekholm line up where he did is nonsense. Need to iron that out pdq.
Babcock matched McDavid against the top Minnesota line all night, and it was ugly. Part of the reason he didn’t shuffle (imo) is that he doesn’t have the horses on the other lines. This would have been a night to take Draisaitl and Podkolzin off the top line, plug in Kapanen, and let that trio take on Ericksson Ek. Babcock is still getting a feel for this team, and as mentioned, Nuge isn’t back yet. Opportunity missed. I thought Babcock would be curious.
- Hyman-Dach-Kapanen 12:43, 5-9 shots, 31X
- Formenton-Michaels-Joseph 8:58, 8-5 shots, 1-1 goals, 70X
- Howard-Frederic-Hallander 5:30, 4-2 shots, 94X
In an overundersidewaysdown evening, the fourth line was the most effective. Ike Howard had some real jump. The Michaels line is higher event than you’d think they would be, only because I don’t see a 20-goal man on the trio. That said, so far this season the three men on the line have scored five goals in nine games. Not quite 50 percent in goal share (5-6, 45 percent at five-on-five) but they hang in there.
The second line had some troubles and I suspect this was High Noon for Dach as the second-line center. When Nuge returns against Carolina, I’ll guess Dach is on the fourth line. Babcock’s magic must work for Hyman-Nuge-Kapanen or the big line will be in Sid’s room before you known it.
- Shea-Murphy 16:48, 8-9 shots, 53X
- Ekholm-Bouchard 16:18, 7-13 shots, 1-1 goals, 25X
- Walman-Emberson 9:40, 7-5 shots, 0-1 goals, 53X
- Devon Levi 25-28, .893 at five-on-five; overall: 27-30, .900
This is a match for the forwards. The top pair had a helluva time, mostly due to poor luck and strong Wild performances. Shea-Murphy kept things clean, and Walman-Emberson were mostly effective to my eye. I like this group of six, wish Murphy were a little better with the puck.
If I were choosing the three stars, Devon Levi would have been first star. Stopped 13 of 15 high dangers, including a brilliant save late when the game was tied.
The Oilers special teams won the game on a night when the wheels wouldn’t turn for the No. 1 line at five-on-five. The PK was exemplary and the power play gobbled up all the available regression in about six minutes of playimg time. If you’re concerned this morning, you have a right to be. That was a good Minnesota team, missing some pieces, who throttled Edmonton’s best and ran the show in the final stanza. Babcock should put Leon on the second line, don’t know that he will.
On the Lowdown today, we are delighted to be joined by the entire cast of Inside the Truck podcast. Paul Hemming (director of the Canes hockey network) and Steve Lansky will spend most of our two-hour show talking hockey, producing hockey games, how analytics is best presented during broadcasts and why their podcast is so unique. Kevin McCurdy will join us at 1pm to review last night’s game as well. Noon to 2pm Sports 1440 and You Tube.
THIS GAME IS DRUNK
I presume the Oilers retroactively IR Dickinson to make room to activate Nuge….
I forgot he wasn’t on IR so that is probably why they didn’t waive Jones, they don’t have to (although they should anyways to accrue more cap space).
https://youtu.be/-h9fAZoBAw8?feature=shared
Are the canes for real this year again?
Summarizing!
For the first time this season, Lewandowski garnered no soup. His point streak ends at seven games.
I wonder what if anything Ricki is seeing in this first stretch of games.
Very happy that Babcock’s attitude and words reflect the fact they can get a ton better. They’re on a lovely upward curve so far of course.
I, for one, have noticed much more attention to clearing the Ricki box. Dach for sure saved a sure goal just by standing between Ek and the net.
I’m not a systems guy but we’ve been talking about the 1-1-3.
To my eye, the Mammoth got kinda dummied for two periods then started to dump and chase to get around it which worked better for them in the third period.
The Wild have Hughes on half the game, he seemed to counter by very fast transitions before the Oilers could even get set in the neutral zone. The Wild either did that or started dumping it.
What did you folks see?
Hughes controls the game with fast transitions but, like Makar he is also very active deeper in the offensive zone.
Bouchard is among the best at walking the blueline and has an overpowering shot but not as adept at making plays down low.
Bouchard literally set up the Joseph goal being well into the offensive zone.
It does happen but it is hardly a common occurrence.
Bouch lets the puck do the work. Quinn uses his feet. Both are effective but different. I take Bouch
Disagree with this. It’s one game, one data point – and I think more likely than not it was an off night for McDrai.Is the suggestion here that the top line will continue to get throttled by the best teams in the league? I wouldn’t bet on that…
Disagreeing is good! I think Oilers fans have a right to be concerned because:
1 The McDavid line looked tired
2 Babcock either didn’t feel another line could take on the task of Eriksson Ek’s line (probably correct) or wasn’t interesting in line matching (that’s a concern).
3 Babcock may have gone to the RNH line if he was in the lineup (likely with Hyman and Kapanen) and I’m not convinced the Nuge can run at that level successfully anymore. That’s another concern.
I agree. Heads up against another top line and concern 5v5.
Interesting analysis and reasoning. Thank you. I’m in agreement with the information shared.
Why is Lowtide obsessed with breaking up the Oilers top line? With the historic mind-blowing start they have had I just don’t get it
Because spreading that talent out will make them a better TEAM.
Rather than one elite line and 3 meh lines we could have two high end lines and then the other two lines can be in the part of the batting order they belong.
In the last 7 games, the Oilers are 50% goal share wth Leon and Connor off the ice – sure, they are out-producing their expected goals but, anything close to a saw off over time will have this team the best team in the league – which is where they are currently in the standings.
The coach has been running with what has, 100%, been working.
I’m confident that Babcock is the smartest hockey man in this room and I’m also confident, given he keeps saying it, that he wants to split them at times and plans on doing in due course but he’s also coaching his roster to play a way that allows that bottom 9 to, essentially, saw off.
I’m just a bad bad man. 🙂
Awesome😁
Ha! 🙂
Which is why we’re here.
I’ve been impressed with Joseph’s work the last couple games. He seems to live up to the expectations re: defensive responsibility, but is showing he might have more offense in him than previous seasons suggested. Was there anything in his numbers to suggest a more complete player, or was he an SB pick based on his PK reputation (which seemed to be a big focus over the offseason)?
He did have 35 points in 72 games in 23-24, presumably without much if any PO time. That’s a substantial offensive season – seems like he couldnt find traction after that in STL/LA but he is still young at 29. A very nice bet.
And DJ Smith coached him in Ottawa and LA last season so he would have been a big part of the acquisition
Thanks, that makes sense. 0.5 ppg would seem to point to a substantial player, especially if he accomplished that in the bottom 6 without PP time. By all accounts last year was a disaster for him, so I guess this is a classic buy-low bet. I was thinking this might have been informed by analytics, but the relationship with DJ smith suggests that might have been the angle. Regardless, I’m liking a lot of the bets that were made in the off season. Feels like we’ve seen much more creativity from the front office in finding value than in past years.
8-1-1
7-1-2
7-2-1
The Oilers will hold one of those records through their first 10 games.
I think all Oilers fans would be happy with any of those, even without massive injuries to the second and third layers of the team throughout.
Happy? For sure. 👍
Do I interpret your comment to imply strong teams should not seek out improvement opportunities, even when the top line win/loss record is favourable?
You can interpret any way you want to.
I certainly did not write that nor imply that – its up to you if you want to infer that.
Chemistry may be more important than the sake of a trade.
Thanks for the clarification.
I had them going 5-3-2 through 10. Very pleased.
Was that record with knowledge of the Hyman and Nuge injuries LT?
No-one on waivers today – I think that means, unless there is a surprise IR placement, Howard is sent down to activate Nuge tomorrow (or Michaels).
That’s too bad, just as I penciled him in on a third line with Dach & Frederic.
Maybe I’m wrong and I’ve missed another option, or maybe Nuge isn’t being activated.
We’ll know tomorrow I guess.
Babcock wouldn’t say Nuge is being activated if he’s not being activated.
Could be a set-back between when he said it and it happening.
Just noticed Draisaitl is 1 point away from tying Henrik Sedin’s career point total with 466 less games played. Insane.
Shea is such a heady player. Smart plays all over the ice, mobile. Pleasure to watch.
What a wonderful add.
If Walman manages to round into form, then we have a very solid group on LD. RD is a bit more mixed to me – another add to push Murphy down would probably give us the best D group since the days of CFP
Sometimes I think perhaps we over analyze stats from small sample sizes. Being concerned the top unit didn’t have a good game when they put up three goals and won because all three were on the power play as opposed to 5 on 5, when a couple games ago we were concerned because the powerplay wasn’t going great guns feels a bit like us jumping at shadows. Not every game is going to be a Monet, and we should be careful to look for trends not noise.
As a trend though, above average goaltending is a luxury this team has been jonesing for and hits like a cold beer after mowing the lawn on a hot day.
I really don’t think xGF numbers are useful for single games. Especially the NST calculation.
A single shift can completely throw off most numbers which is very misleading.
Reporting in-games stats can be interesting to compare to the eye test, but are otherwise unhelpful. Add on score effects and ref effects, and it makes them completely useless. This goes doubly so for goalie stats, which don’t mean much until 20-30 starts.
I feel otherwise, an opportunity to evaluate how our top line stacks up 5v5 against the top line of another contender is important information.
One game is still just one game. It was also a game where McDavid had a cool 3 points, Bouchard and Draistle 2 and Podkolzin 1. I have a hard time buying into a narrative that a line had a bad night when it put up 6 points collectively.
Not a bad game, just not a dominant game.
The Oilers top 5 man unit can make magic out of nothing, the issue being is that magic doesn’t happen all the time.
How they stack up when trailing in the third. Had the score been reversed I thnk the 5v5 stats are also reversed. The Wild were in full attack mode and Q Hughes and the top line barely left the ice. I wonder if Wild fans are raging about their ice time this morning?
Loving Levi’s story but if he kept this up I’d still trade him + for Helly in a heartbeat.
Utah has the package but doesn’t want to part with their riches. Buffalo only works with UPL moved and that adds complexity.
One of the Oil’s biggest problems forever is saves and the best one in the game is currently available and has said he’d go to just about anywhere that can win. This includes Edmonton.
Obvious solution for the rest of peak 97. Paperclips to Houses (3rd rounders + to Hellebuycks)
Completely disagree. Levi is the best thing we’ve seen in goal in a long while. Young, uber athletic and just exudes confidence. I can’t remember the last time I watched this team play when I didn’t worry an easy goal would cost us the game.
Devon Levi over Connor Hellebuyck. I love this blog.
Is Levi a material upgrade over Stevenson at this point? Hopefully he is 40 games from now.
Not to mention finding $8.5MM in cap room
That’s my point. If he builds his value enough to be the goalie Winnipeg accepts going back, you do it immediately.
Stevenson is 27 and has played 8 career NHL games. This is not a high bar to pass
Nurse was dumped at his big ticket. If the barrier to Hellebuyck is his contract then Stan isn’t being creative enough.
Helly has been a top goalie for many years….. behind an excellent defensive first team.
While also being unreliable in the playoffs recently. As he ages it’s reasonable to expect him to decline.
The oilers are playing much better defensively now and will continue to improve as the systems become more natural to the players.
Maybe the oil don’t need to blow assets and cap on a past proven regular season goalie.
He won the biggest possible game in hockey essentially by himself.
I genuinely did not expect this level of pushback for quite literally the best goalie in the world.
So did Jim Craig.
I have no idea who that is.
Goalie for USA in the famous ‘Miracle on Ice’ victory over the dominant USSR/Russia squad in the 1980 Lake Placid Olympics. It was expected that he’d carry that success over long NHL career, but he pretty much fizzled and was out of the game a few years later.
Fair enough. I would say Hellebuycks career has surpassed that. Vezinas, highest GSAx for years.
And beating a team with 97, Nate, Makar, and definitely deserving Doughty.
People seem to hate Helly around here and I think the reasoning is a bit misinformed but not really my place to judge.
I think he’d help the team, and if character was an issue, well what better place than the Edmonton rehab facility.
He was the goalie that backstopped the Americans to Olympic Gold in1980.They called it then and still call it today the Miracle on Ice. The Americans were such underdogs that it would be the equivalent of Italy winning the Gold Medal last year.
Hellebuych quit on his team. No way is he reporting to Edmonton my guess will be Panthers or Vegas.
I don’t disagree but you are missing the repeated articles that report he will not stay in Canada, and there are no secrets anymore so why even take the risk of leaking that you tried to trade a young goalie who is playing ++ well and is going into an RFA negotiation off-season? Detroit’s a great example of the consequences of not treating your own players well coming home to roost. Not that I fully agree, but the same case could be made for Broberg’s situation (still attest it was 50/50 player and team). Point is that the word is clearly no to Canada, so pushing the issue would definitely make waves and get back to Levi’s camp. Not what I would want as a manager of a 7-1-1 team with 2 goalies playing well and an insurance starter joining in a couple of months.
You want to trade someone? Pump Jarry and retain 1 mil for the next 2 yrs. Couldn’t care if he found out.
From my sources he would go to Edmonton. Take that how you will.
Will Levi win the Vezina at any point in his career? Maybe. Has Helly? Multiple times.
For a team that has had below average goaltending since 2006 Roly the idea of a pump and dump for literally the best one sitting at home is really not that big of a push. If Winnipeg would take Jarry a 2nd and Omark the deal would’ve been done already.
Levi has played 6 games of average quality. If he can go on a heater long enough to be part of getting the proven best world class starter I think you do it.
Everyone wants to be Vegas ruthless until its time to be Vegas ruthless.
If you were Oilers GM and Helly waived to stay in Canada (doubtful), what would you offer the Jets that they need for a goalie of that caliber? There is a reason the deal hasn’t been done. You need to prioritize what the Jets need, not what the Oilers can spare or push off on another team. I’m thinking you try NHL established, on the upswing, secondary scoring to start.
As an aside, everyone on this blog should read up on Stevenson, he’s got quite the back story and his story of perseverance is pretty special, with some similarities to Ingram’s story.
Lets say Levi builds his resume as I suggested.
I would trade almost anything not tied down. Jets would prioritize some youth and skill but also ready made players with term.
Oil, some combination of:
Levi
1st
Savoie
Dach
Emberson, cause i cant trade Murphy for years.
I like all of these players. None imo move the needle like Helly for the next 5 years.
I’d even ask Hyman but know that wouldn’t happen. Love the guy. Older, hand is a ticking time bomb after Marchment blew it up. But most importantly, still valuable.
I also like Dach but think his trade value could outweigh his replaceability. If they keep finding a Michaels once a year, its fine.
Where are you going to find the rest of the cap space?
Move out each of Savoie, Dach and Emberson and you need to add two forwards and a d-man to your roster and, given those 3 add up to less than $4MM on the cap, you save close to nothing. Actually, check that, you don’t have to replace Savoie as he’s on IR but, still, they are miles away from having the cap room with this trade.
Not to mention, now they are playing Walman on the right side with Shakir and adding Carfagna (unless Regula is ready), they probably need to add a top 9 forward still.
Also, I’m not sure this deal comes close – Jets probably don’t do it without Podz.
Id do it with Podz. I could care less about the bottom pair d and as for money, get rid of Jarry retained or wait until the summer. The money is by far the least of my worries.
Move Ike up to the top 6 and bring up Hutson and Samanski.
Bring up Carfagna and deal with a mismatch of hands for 13 minutes a night behind, again, the best goalie in the world.
We can argue all day whther Winnipeg would do that, but the idea we shouldn’t try to solve our biggest problem for 2 decades is pretty shortsighted imo.
I’m not sure you can just wait until the summer to move up the cap and not worry about the money. The salary cap is real and it to be compiled with so that just doesn’t work.
I care about the bottom pair – we saw in the first two game what happens when they are not up to task.
Remove Emerson, remove Podz, add a bunch of AHL players – I don’t think this makes the team better.
If you value the 3rd pair over a goaltender the calibre Connor Hellebuyck, you are correct, we will not agree even remotely about team impact.
A goalie of this value is never available. Period. Even Carolina, known goalie ignorers are seriously looking at him because he is that good.
There are several levers to make the cap work and if it involves retention or picks, fine. 30+ GSAx Juice is worth the squeeze imo.
ff you read my posts and conclude a narrow post of valuing a 3rd pair over a goalie then you are not understanding the position and/or not discussion honestly or in good faith.
I also don’t think you are acknowledging that Connor H. is not immune to regression in his game and was not the goalie you are describing last season with 5.5 goals saved above expected on the season. This isn’t like acquiring a Connor McDavid where you are all but assured of performance.
If Winnipeg were interested in Levi, you’d have to think that Buffalo would have consummated a deal for Helly already, with Levi being one of the pieces thrown in (instead of being sent to Edmonton for a 3rd round pick).
When the Hellybuyck deal gets done, I think you’ll find that the Oilers did not have the kind of assets required to make such a deal (regardless of how well Levi is playing). I would not want to make a deal with Chevy … that guy is patient and drives a hard bargain. Every time he’s been backed into a corner by one of his star players wanting out, he’s managed to come out ahead.
And there is no such think as “pump and dump” … except in fantasy hockey. NHL GMs are looking for proven commodities (e.g. NHL vets with long track records of success) or blue chip prospects (e.g. the kind that everyone in hockey agrees is a bluechip guy). This is why you can get a GM to buy into the idea of trading for the decaying corpse of Darnell Nurse, but they can have total blinders for young emerging talent.
Even if the Oilers did have the pieces to make a deal for Hellybuyck, they don’t have the cap space. As we’ve seen already, making a move to clear the cap in order to take on a big ticket can cost some pretty significant assets.
For the record, if a Hellybuyck deal were at all realistic than I’d be all over that … and I think Bowman would too.
All fair points. I absolutely agree Levi doesn’t move the needle now. I said assuming he builds his resume. If Levi plays strong until the deadline, would a 24 year old with high upside have more value than the Levi of October? I think it would.
Imo there are pump and dumps. I weirdly remember Cory Conacher for Ben Bishop off the top of my head but Zeev Buium seems to be the latest example. YMMV.
I provided a list of candidates. Nurse had a full NMC and moved it and literally nobody believed that would happen. Itd be harsh to Zach but i think he’s nearer to the brink than folks want to believe. Still very useful, hence trade value.
Chevy deal would be tough but if it has to wait till the summer so be it. Tick tock with the greatest to ever lace em up.
I just think the opportunity to fix the problem that has plagued the org for 2 decades is worth exploring.
Not sure average quality means what you think it does.
6 games .898. 17th place (5 or more games)
0.6 GSAx. 30th place
Its exactly what i think it means.
Want to be Vegas ruthless. Then go after a top three forward or a top two D. Not a goalie. They ship those out.
The mentality not the roster building.
The jets have this other goalie that is cheaper than helly. He’s 6 GP rockimg a 0.910 sv%!
Might be a great fit to upgrade from Levi for you….
Stevenson over Connor Hellebuyck. Now we’re talking.
That record is skinner
Im pretty sure my post was clear I don’t want a mediocre goalie. I want the best goalie in the world who is available.
Thank you for you attention to this matter.
That best goalie in the world model is currently not available in Canada due to strike & lockout action. As of tonight, this model is most likely to remain south of the border. He may end up being acquired by the current cup champs, if we are to believe the red light special of the day. .
Can I interest you in a mediocre goalie currently in stock with a high price tag but some cautious optimism his productivity and value will rebound, as well as a promising young goalie that is testing very well and garnering positive reviews, also in stock? If those two don’t interest you, we have a third option (it was a BOGO deal in the summer) in our repair shop that may or may not be able to return to his original factory settings. As a sweetener for all three of these existing models, we are including new and improved support systems, something models used in the past were not consistently provided with.
Other goalies being referred to are currently working out well for satisfied customers and responding well to their new environments.
Love this. Again, will stand by what I’ve heard that he would play for Edmonton.
This start should pay dividends as the season goes. I think that they will keep working on the team game, there are some things that have to be improved. When the PDO pony starts getting tired they will need to offset that
The main thing for me is their shot totals are not going to sustain the winning streak in the long run. It also doesn’t make sense that a skilled team doesn’t get more shots. I don’t think there is a player quality issue anymore, it points to the system and execution. Of course having players with a higher skill level will help that, but no team has a stacked 4 lines. It’s more about how they play, which Babcock says is a work in progress
I am going to use Oct 2 as the start date to get those first two games out. Including them clouds the picture as it takes a long time for them to wash out. Doing that currently they are:
P% 2nd at .857
2nd in GF/GP and GA/GP
PP 4th at 30%
PK 21st at 77.3%
Goal Diff 3rd at +11
PDO 1st at 1.066
SH% 1st at 15.66%
Team SV% 2nd at .928
Great start, as people are saying not likely sustainable, and to me the shots point to it:
Shots/GP 29th at 22.7
SA/GP 19th at 27.7
SF% 45.04
SF% is well down the list, NST is down for me but NHL has their Shot Diff/GP at -5 which is 28th. They are rolling in luck which is fine, but this needs to be improved before they aren’t as lucky. I’m not a shot volume for it’s own sake advocate, but trying to keep quality but focusing on out shooting. It seems like more than just score effects to me
Before NST crashed on me, the HDCF% wasn’t the best either as they calculate it, but I don’t recall the number
It is refreshing to have an Oiler season start on a heater, rather than having to climb out of a hole in Dec/Jan/Feb.
To me, some of the Oilers’ shot totals are score effects – they’ve led games a lot this year and are trying to learn prevent defence (without cheaters angling for breaks the other way).
The game vs Carolina could be a great reckoning, but they’ve been playing down to the opposition lately.
Absolutely. The LA game is the poster child. That game was over before the 2nd period started. 40 mostly perimeter shots. That game also cratered their shot totals because that’s what the game required. Shot quality matters.
The numbers will even out regardless as sample size increases. SS removing 2 games where the shots for were strong makes this a 7 game sample. Without a 2nd line.
Not trying to stop engagement but there’s not much to glean yet.
Shots don’t need the first games out, I do think for the other stats it’s more informative, full season:
S/GP 23rd 25.2
SA/GP 18th 26.6
Score effects are a part of it for sure, I had mentioned that but seems I took it out. Part of it is eye test for me, I have never been comfortable when a team sits back too much, it usually leads to problems, I think they could push more at times. Part of it is injuries, but the Wild have them and are 8th in S/GP, so it’s not all of it. It will be interesting to see how things pan out through the season
Leon challenged a reporter in a scrum that that isn’t the plan ever to switch strategies and sit back. Score Effects are not by design. Its the natural phenomenon to let off the gas. Players are human I suppose. Agreed I’d prefer they push but those are still habits to break by Babs.
Wild injuries of quality are mostly blueline so I’d push back on that compared to a whole top 6 line missing.
Will be fun to see how this all plays out. I think top line pace will cool off once that 2nd line is back. Less need to do everything and hopefully get some games under 20 minutes for the big guys.
I would say score effects play a big indicator in our numbers. We’ve had such big leads that there’s no need to keep pressing offensively.
They have had a player quality issue all season. The Oilers are icing three 4th lines and the shot totals reflect this.
Oilers have 9 grinders playing with little history of scoring at the NHL level. This is contributing to lower shot totals. Once the second line returns from injury we hope to see the shot totals rebound.
Bowman’s offseason additions are fast but none have great scoring instincts. It is a big concern. I am not sure how systems play will overcome the skill deficit in the bottom 9/6
I presume we see Max Jones in waivers today to make room to activate Nuge tomorrow.
Either that or a surprise new IR placement.
Guessing Jones gone down for good. Nuge, Dickenson and Savoie all back at some point.
Not on waivers today………
Formenton could have scored two not including the shot that Joseph popped home. Formenton has a heavy shot the goals will come. I really don’t see how this line takes any gruff playing higher in the line-up than intended yet it’s still winning the goal battle and grade A chances.
Remember when they came back from commercial and Freddie was chatting with Bogosian at the redline? I guess Bogosian was trying to get at Michaels during the break and Freddie and Dach went over to settle things down. Per Rishaug.
Man im surprised by the negative vibe around the team right now. The oilers just spent two years getting trampled by the pdo pony, now they are whipping and spurring that thing right to the top of the standings. Lets enjoy it and presume that Babcock will tweak the top 6 when nuge is back, if its needed.
Also how nice will it be to add three more nhl players to the roster. Thats going to make some real depth
Single game xG stats are a bane to the community.
They tell you a brief story (ie. 97 line got caved), but then folks will use it as what is ‘deserved’. Small sample size has become meaningless.
The massive discounting of special teams value while simultaneously condemning the combined ice time for the big boys(5v5 they’re pretty normal) also doesn’t help.
I’m also waiting for the March articles saying Line 2-4 are no good while ignoring the early dearth of talent past L1.
Long way to say I agree with you. Enjoy the ride.
Of note, Howard played with Nuge and Hyman for the entirety of camp.
Howard/Nuge/Hyman
Frederic/Dach/Kap
If they don’t split up the duo, I love that. If Babcock now things he has “enough pieces”:
Howard/McDavid/Hyman
Podz/Drai/Kap
Frederic/Nuge/Dach
Joseph/Michaels/Formenton
Ok let’s not get carried away.
What is getting carried away? The first formulation was when coach had all camp long.
Howard is transitioning the puck out of the zone and rang the bar twice in 7 minutes last night.
He will score goals with skill, just like Matt Savoie.
I was just having a little fun. But Babcock has plenty of options with Nuge coming back.
What was a line in training camp and pre-season doesn’t necessarily translate to the regular season. Good heavens they may even send him to Bako to make room for the mighty Nuge, as you say. It won’t be Owen Micheals.
I think the Bako assignment is reasonably likely given no waivers today for Jones – that would be a wild decision but its one of the only paths (that I see, I may be missed something).
Agree with this. In either scenario, how do you think things take shape when Savvy is back?
Impossible to say – even if its just 2 weeks away (Bowman said 2-4 weeks on Tuesday) and there will likely be another injury by then.
To add Nuge, Dicky and Savoie to the lineup, I would think that Hallander, Howard and Dach/Formenton come out but who knows.
Man is Ekholm tough! Took some and gave lots out last night. However, he was exposed by the forechecking / constant pressure of the fast Wild 1st line a couple of times.
Could both pairs benefit from switching Shea and Ekholm against teams like the Wild? Do the Canes present the same sort of problem?
They do. I watched some of their game last night. They are doing well, but I don’t find their game that impressive. It’s hard to play against because their MO is just go hard and fast and never stop. They are used to playing together so win a lot doing that. A tight defensive team with more talent can and should beat them
I was really encouraged by the game last night. Glass half full is that the Oilers lost the first line matchup but the bottom six, special teams, and Levi were excellent.
Michaels continues to impress. Maybe it’s some luck but he also makes astute hockey plays. That deft touch for the second assist on the Joseph goal was super smart.
Howard is going to break out. He is on it.
I’m sufficiently enamoured with the loaded up top line that I would like to see it continue. Balance is overrated — ride the roller coaster!
Here, this is how it might look next game.
Podz-McDavid-Leo
Hyman-Nuge-Kapanen
Howard-Dach-Frederic
Formenton-Micheals-Joseph
Ekholm-Bouch
Shea-Murphy
Walman-Emberson
Levi-Jarry
Give it a whirl. Maybe Dach & Howard finally score some goals. Maybe?
How are we feeling on Hallander? He’s been decent to my eye so far, I’m not sure he’s the one to drop out over Howard.
I think you’re right on how the rest of the lines look when Nuge comes back. Although we might see Frederic moved from 4C to the 2R in spots instead of Kap.
I doubt that McDavid and Drai are split up, it seems pretty apparent we’re doing everything we can to get McDavid 200 points this season.
I like Hallander, he’s scored as many goals as Howard and he’s a more complete player. Better suited to the bottom six.
Through the first 9 games of the season:
McDavid is scoring like peak Lemieux/gretzky +
Bouchard is scoring like normal McDavid
Leon is scoring like normal Leon
and Podz is scoring like Leon light
Enjoy the ride, we’re living the good old days
It was a great game between two strong teams. If you want to complain about the oilers loading up, Hynes played the shit out of his top guys in the third. They tied the game- the strategy does work although in the long term it might lead to fatigue.
It was a perfect start to the homestand in a way, win over a good team but lots to review and work on to sharpen up play.
Levi is also giving the oilers goaltending they’ve needed for 10 years. If Stu is in net for that game, he gives up 4 in the third and the oilers lose. Levi’s athletic style works well and I just think more structure is giving the goalies more of a chance to make saves.
Hey @lowetide
Where do you turn the percentile of skating speed for players? I’ve never seen it on NHL Edge.
Connor McDavid max speed is 38.65 kmh, just about it in a box it says 99th percentile.
https://www.nhl.com/nhl-edge/skaters/connor-mcdavid-8478402
Marvelous win last night . Good to see the special teams being special.
Nuge is back for the ‘Canes. Sounds like Babcock will run him at 2c with Hyman & Kapanen on his flanks. That will pose a question for where Dach will be slotted. I don’t know for sure if he prefers Freddy at center or not? I would assume since Dach was given the opportunity at 2c over Freddy he might want to go with Dach. Therefore we could see
(Howard-Dach-Frederic) although I’d prefer (Hallander-Dach-Frederic) as a heavier trio against Carolina. Granted Howard mustared a couple shots on goal in slightly more ice time than Hallander. I guess it’s like the lottery with Howard, if he gets a couple shots he might score. Stay tuned.
This team really needs to find a top line winger. Even with boots getting healthy we need to add to the top of the lineup
Savoie is a top 9 winger
I hate watching this team protect the lead because they still don’t know how to protect the lead. They got the 3 goals and sat back. But you can’t let Kaprizov get in behind you when you are playing prevent defense. And you can’t let brink stare down a backhand pass into the slot and let it get through.
I do enjoy the huge change of having a goaler with a glove hand who’s not on his knees as soon as the puck is released
Oilers passed the test, both teams wanted the win and the Oilers got it.
Big line lost their 5×5 minutes for the first time this season and they still pulled out the victory.
Everyone said wait until they play the mighty mammoth, wild, and hurricanes.. Well they’re 2-1 so far, so I’d say breaking even would be a win with the important pieces their missing and the coach apparently not listening to what everyone thinks is best to do.
9 games in, 1 regulation loss. Top tier results, highly enjoyable.
Fantastic game. Nice to see the special teams win their battle, and of course, great game by Levi.
I’m with leadfarmer that their “protecting of the lead” needs some work. Can’t completely shut down the top players on top teams, but the breakaways weren’t great.
Prospectiles!
Today’s spotlight shines on David Lewandowski, who is off to a fast start with boxcars of 7-4-9-13. He has points in every game so far.
The chance to post more crooked numbers arrives at 6:30 Shouldice time.
From TSN – McDavid quote:
“I think Leo and I, when we did play together it was just a one-off or a situation where we needed to find one and we knew it wasn’t necessarily a long-term thing,” McDavid said. “So, to be able to have a stretch of games playing together – who knows what happens moving forward – but playing together has been so much fun, obviously, along with [Vasily Podkolzin] and [Mattias Ekholm] and [Evan Bouchard].
“I’ve said all along being out there with those guys, everybody knows where each other is, everybody has been reading off each other, playing fast, and everybody can make a play. It’s a pretty fun group to be out there with.”
Setting the stage to play together all year? I think so!!
Did he not say the same thing about playing with Nuge and Hyman last year?
Not sure, but the numbers this year certainly don’t lie
This was in response to a question regarding how it feels knowing that they will be playing together nightly.
The same reporter (I think it was either DVD or Gerry M.) asked Babcock the same question and he said that they don’t know they will be playing together, he’s been doing it that way for now but that may change when they get more players back
I felt the Oil carried the play for the first 45 mins. Wally made a few incredible saves early on.
The Wild had a few scrambles but didn’t take control until about 10 mins left in the game.
Otherwise, the eye test showed a more solid effort than the numbers may illustrate IMO.
I agree. I thought they outplayed them significantly early on. I feel like the tempo/style the Oil are playing works great, but in games with a lot of PP time it doensn’t work by the 3rd period because 1) the top line gets gassed, and 2) the other lines don’t play enough to have rhythm
The Wild shortened their bench considerably to get back into the game in the third period. Hughes was on every other shift.
it worked to an extent in that they got a Bettman point, but I’d bet that the fatigue from all those extra minutes contributed to the massive mental error that Hughes made in OT.
Over the course of a game, the extra minutes can lead to declining performance, which compounds over the course of 84 games,
Babcock should stay the course – play the other lines, and let them figure things out. Right now, no one on the roster is out of place … they’re all legit NHL players.
It was the opposite of the first Utah game where the Oilers were the better 5 on 5 team and lost the special teams battle and the game.
Why would we be concerned? That was a good Minny team missing pieces but that was a good Oiler team missing very substantial pieces as well.
Minny ran the Oiler show in the third period. The Oilers were full value for a 2-goal lead that allowed that to happen and them not lose the game. Two contending teams – there will be flow of play changes every time.
The Oilers top line got throttled – that’s a 3 times per year type of occurrence. On the other hand hand the bottom two lines both outplayed their opposition, against a contending team.
Minnesota has injured players. They are a good team. The Oilers won the game, but I don’t think we can say they passed the test. I felt 97-29 weren’t at their best, and that brings up toi in past games as an issue. The record is good, the reckoning less so.
Minnesota has injured players. Edmonton has injured players.
Minnesota was better in certain parts of the game. Edmonton was better in certain parts of the game.
Edmonton won the game. Wild did well to fight back and get an OT point.
Wild failed their test more than the Oilers did.
The Oilers are 4th in the league in 5 on 5 goal share after losing that last night. They did poor in that game state last night. The first line lost their minutes. Both rare, in particular the letters – that will happen, its not a trend, its a one-off at this point.
Agreed. The Oilers top line had challenges 5v5 against the best line from the wild. This becomes important as team prepares for a seven game playoff series.
Minnesota is missing their entire 4th line (of near 3rd line quality), and their #2 and #3 defensemen.
Take Ekholm and Shea out, and where are the Oilers?
Oilers are missing 2/3 of a second line and their 3C – just as equatable as missing those two d-man and, lets be clear, Spurgeon has had a wonderful career but he elderly and not the player he once was.
Faber is a top 4 Team USA defenseman. He would make the Team Canada defense.
I’m well aware of how good Brock Faber is and I stand by my opinion.
Quinn Hughes was the difference maker for the Wild’s top line. There is no dman in the league that controls the puck or walks the line like Hughes. It wasn’t Kaprisov driving the line. It was Hughes. Bouchard is the second best dman in the league. He has a better shot from the point than Hughes – harder and more accurate – but I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a play driving dman like Hughes.
He makes the game look so easy. Hell of a player. Easily as dynamic as Makar to my eye and played like half the game.
Correct, QH played 31:18
Since January 1st of this year, Bouchard has the 3rd most points in the entire league. Bouchard holds the line with complete dominance, his passing is unworldly, Bouchard is the one running neck and neck with prime Coffey. Bouchard was the one that put the Joseph goal into action, scored the game winning goal while Hughes was in the penalty box.
Bouchard and Hughes are the two best dmen in the NHL. I think they are both better than Makar. But Hughes is better IMO because the Minnesota game flows through him. Bouchard walks the line exceptionally well, but not like Hughes. Bouchard has a better shot that is harder and more accurate. Bouchard will almost certainly have more points than Hughes this year, but he’s playing with McDavid and Drai, who are flat out better than Kaprisov and Boldy, even though they are amongst the best players in the NHL. There’s no shame being the second best dmen behind Hughes.
I didn’t watch Minny in playoffs last year, but when Hughes was in Vancouver he definitely took a step back during playoff hockey. When he was targeted physically his lack of size was a factor. I would take Bouchard and Makar over Hughes in playoffs which means they would both rank higher IMO.
Bouchard is a better fit for the Oilers. Having a puck transporter on the back end doesn’t work as well with McDavid and Drai. That’s their role.
This ! did we double team hughes the way teams double and triple team Mcdavid ?
Did we physically punish their star players like other teams punish ours ? Mcdavid took a nasty cross check that made up crumple which resulted in a penalty.
We need to take some flesh on their stars too.
Also, did Wallestedt walk on water last night ? I’d say no. Bouchard exposed him twice with his heavy shot, only one went in but I’m not hearing “oh we got goalied”. So this is a massive improvement.
It was a tight game but this team is playing tight checking and relentless. It appears Babcock’s system is bearing fruit.
I think you are right but I wonder if he just moves Dach to the 2W and keeps that fourth line together? For me, Hallander is the clear scratch over any of those on last night’s 4th line.
Of course, Howard to 2W and Dach to 4W works as well.
This also COULD be a split McDavid and Drai time – Babcock has said that could happen at times once “he has more pieces” – is Nuge “enough pieces”?
I’d drop Formenton personally. Hallander seems to move and get back enough, Formenton is always cheating for offense and is a big reason why his line is so high event. I don’t think he brings enough at offense to cover over his warts defensively. Throw Hallander, Dach, or even Howard, on that line and I think it does all the good things with fewer of the running around in its own end things. Michaels is a new centre to the league and for him to carry around the defensive responsibility for 2/3s of the line is asking a bit much.
Sid has a post up on Substack which talks about that line and his suggestions for improvement.
Agree on Formenton. I think he’s got some of the Ryan Jones in him.
I see no reason to break up what has been a good line so far this season.
The challenge for the line is they are riding unsustainable percentages that are always against them. It bleeds chances, and with Nuge back, its a chance to improve.
I don’t disagree on Formenton and don’t think he’s been very good despite the odd speed breakaway – he seems weak on the wall to start.
At the same time, he’s got points, a positive goal share and part of one of Babcock’s most trusted and used lines.
I think he should be in the conversation but just don’t see Babcock doing that any time soon.
Coach says Nuge is back next game and he’ll have more center depth and be able to roll things more. I think, if Nuge was back for last night’s game, he may have worked to get the McDavid line away from the Karizov line a bit more.
My goodness was that ever a beatdown loss on that match-up at 5 on 5 last night – rare for that line to get dominated like that.
Kudos to lines 2-4, in particular the bottom two lines. That fourth line was outstanding, to the tune of 90% plus expected goals. Less than 7 minutes with all the special teams but, for me, Howard has earned the right to stay in the lineup over Hallander tomorrow with Nuge back
Levi was fantastic, looking more and more like he could turn into Bowman’s best trade.
Not sure what Howard has to do to get some playing time with skill, but I do think that he has earned it.
Maybe run him with Dach & Freddy with third line minutes. He might get more opportunities to score or at least more shots. Maybe he gets lucky and one goes in off Freddy’s butt.