I was looking forward to last night’s game for several reasons. The result didn’t matter (I had this game as a loss) but there were questions to be answered. Would Mike Babcock hard match the McDavid line against the Eriksson Ek line and the Brodin-Hughes tandem all night? Even if times got rough? If he did check down to a second option, what line would he believe could serve as a bridge over troubled water? Coud Devon Levi continue his ascent to the No. 1 goalie job? Would we get some clues about how this team will run when Ryan Nugent-Hopkins returns?
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
- On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1) Actual 3-0-0
- At home to: Mammoth (1-0) Actual 0-1-0
- On the road to: Mammoth (0-0-1) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 7-1-1, 15 points in nine games
This train is rolling now. I think we’re in for a slight reckoning, but with Nugent-Hopkins just around the corner, maybe Mike Babcock will tweak the lines in an effort to give the team a different look. With the Carolina Hurricanes coming to town, it would be timely to run the Glimmer Twins on separate lines. If the lines aren’t split, expect Hyman-Nuge-Kapanen agains the Hurricanes.
- Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl 13:09, 5-9 shots, 0-2 goals, 41X
Uh-oh. All those minutes coming home to roost? Or just a brilliant opponent? I think the first GA was some bad luck (Bouchard won the puck bit it slipped away) but it we’re honest McDavid played it poorly. I think he’s a natural winger, so that’s his position, but LMHF noted in the comments section having Mattias Ekholm line up where he did is nonsense. Need to iron that out pdq.
Babcock matched McDavid against the top Minnesota line all night, and it was ugly. Part of the reason he didn’t shuffle (imo) is that he doesn’t have the horses on the other lines. This would have been a night to take Draisaitl and Podkolzin off the top line, plug in Kapanen, and let that trio take on Ericksson Ek. Babcock is still getting a feel for this team, and as mentioned, Nuge isn’t back yet. Opportunity missed. I thought Babcock would be curious.
- Hyman-Dach-Kapanen 12:43, 5-9 shots, 31X
- Formenton-Michaels-Joseph 8:58, 8-5 shots, 1-1 goals, 70X
- Howard-Frederic-Hallander 5:30, 4-2 shots, 94X
In an overundersidewaysdown evening, the fourth line was the most effective. Ike Howard had some real jump. The Michaels line is higher event than you’d think they would be, only because I don’t see a 20-goal man on the trio. That said, so far this season the three men on the line have scored five goals in nine games. Not quite 50 percent in goal share (5-6, 45 percent at five-on-five) but they hang in there.
The second line had some troubles and I suspect this was High Noon for Dach as the second-line center. When Nuge returns against Carolina, I’ll guess Dach is on the fourth line. Babcock’s magic must work for Hyman-Nuge-Kapanen or the big line will be in Sid’s room before you known it.
- Shea-Murphy 16:48, 8-9 shots, 53X
- Ekholm-Bouchard 16:18, 7-13 shots, 1-1 goals, 25X
- Walman-Emberson 9:40, 7-5 shots, 0-1 goals, 53X
- Devon Levi 25-28, .893 at five-on-five; overall: 27-30, .900
This is a match for the forwards. The top pair had a helluva time, mostly due to poor luck and strong Wild performances. Shea-Murphy kept things clean, and Walman-Emberson were mostly effective to my eye. I like this group of six, wish Murphy were a little better with the puck.
If I were choosing the three stars, Devon Levi would have been first star. Stopped 13 of 15 high dangers, including a brilliant save late when the game was tied.
The Oilers special teams won the game on a night when the wheels wouldn’t turn for the No. 1 line at five-on-five. The PK was exemplary and the power play gobbled up all the available regression in about six minutes of playimg time. If you’re concerned this morning, you have a right to be. That was a good Minnesota team, missing some pieces, who throttled Edmonton’s best and ran the show in the final stanza. Babcock should put Leon on the second line, don’t know that he will.
On the Lowdown today, we are delighted to be joined by the entire cast of Inside the Truck podcast. Paul Hemming (director of the Canes hockey network) and Steve Lansky will spend most of our two-hour show talking hockey, producing hockey games, how analytics is best presented during broadcasts and why their podcast is so unique. Kevin McCurdy will join us at 1pm to review last night’s game as well. Noon to 2pm Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Hey @lowetide
Where do you turn the percentile of skating speed for players? I’ve never seen it on NHL Edge.
Marvelous win last night . Good to see the special teams being special.
Nuge is back for the ‘Canes. Sounds like Babcock will run him at 2c with Hyman & Kapanen on his flanks. That will pose a question for where Dach will be slotted. I don’t know for sure if he prefers Freddy at center or not? I would assume since Dach was given the opportunity at 2c over Freddy he might want to go with Dach. Therefore we could see
(Howard-Dach-Frederic) although I’d prefer (Hallander-Dach-Frederic) as a heavier trio against Carolina. Granted Howard mustared a couple shots on goal in slightly more ice time than Hallander. I guess it’s like the lottery with Howard, if he gets a couple shots he might score. Stay tuned.
This team really needs to find a top line winger. Even with boots getting healthy we need to add to the top of the lineup
I hate watching this team protect the lead because they still don’t know how to protect the lead. They got the 3 goals and sat back. But you can’t let Kaprizov get in behind you when you are playing prevent defense. And you can’t let brink stare down a backhand pass into the slot and let it get through.
I do enjoy the huge change of having a goaler with a glove hand who’s not on his knees as soon as the puck is released
Oilers passed the test, both teams wanted the win and the Oilers got it.
Big line lost their 5×5 minutes for the first time this season and they still pulled out the victory.
Everyone said wait until they play the mighty mammoth, wild, and hurricanes.. Well they’re 2-1 so far, so I’d say breaking even would be a win with the important pieces their missing and the coach apparently not listening to what everyone thinks is best to do.
9 games in, 1 regulation loss. Top tier results, highly enjoyable.
Prospectiles!
Today’s spotlight shines on David Lewandowski, who is off to a fast start with boxcars of 7-4-9-13. He has points in every game so far.
The chance to post more crooked numbers arrives at 6:30 Shouldice time.
From TSN – McDavid quote:
“I think Leo and I, when we did play together it was just a one-off or a situation where we needed to find one and we knew it wasn’t necessarily a long-term thing,” McDavid said. “So, to be able to have a stretch of games playing together – who knows what happens moving forward – but playing together has been so much fun, obviously, along with [Vasily Podkolzin] and [Mattias Ekholm] and [Evan Bouchard].
“I’ve said all along being out there with those guys, everybody knows where each other is, everybody has been reading off each other, playing fast, and everybody can make a play. It’s a pretty fun group to be out there with.”
Setting the stage to play together all year? I think so!!
Did he not say the same thing about playing with Nuge and Hyman last year?
I felt the Oil carried the play for the first 45 mins. Wally made a few incredible saves early on.
The Wild had a few scrambles but didn’t take control until about 10 mins left in the game.
Otherwise, the eye test showed a more solid effort than the numbers may illustrate IMO.
I agree. I thought they outplayed them significantly early on. I feel like the tempo/style the Oil are playing works great, but in games with a lot of PP time it doensn’t work by the 3rd period because 1) the top line gets gassed, and 2) the other lines don’t play enough to have rhythm
The Wild shortened their bench considerably to get back into the game in the third period. Hughes was on every other shift.
it worked to an extent in that they got a Bettman point, but I’d bet that the fatigue from all those extra minutes contributed to the massive mental error that Hughes made in OT.
Over the course of a game, the extra minutes can lead to declining performance, which compounds over the course of 84 games,
Babcock should stay the course – play the other lines, and let them figure things out. Right now, no one on the roster is out of place … they’re all legit NHL players.
It was the opposite of the first Utah game where the Oilers were the better 5 on 5 team and lost the special teams battle and the game.
Why would we be concerned? That was a good Minny team missing pieces but that was a good Oiler team missing very substantial pieces as well.
Minny ran the Oiler show in the third period. The Oilers were full value for a 2-goal lead that allowed that to happen and them not lose the game. Two contending teams – there will be flow of play changes every time.
The Oilers top line got throttled – that’s a 3 times per year type of occurrence. On the other hand hand the bottom two lines both outplayed their opposition, against a contending team.
Minnesota has injured players. They are a good team. The Oilers won the game, but I don’t think we can say they passed the test. I felt 97-29 weren’t at their best, and that brings up toi in past games as an issue. The record is good, the reckoning less so.
Quinn Hughes was the difference maker for the Wild’s top line. There is no dman in the league that controls the puck or walks the line like Hughes. It wasn’t Kaprisov driving the line. It was Hughes. Bouchard is the second best dman in the league. He has a better shot from the point than Hughes – harder and more accurate – but I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a play driving dman like Hughes.
He makes the game look so easy. Hell of a player. Easily as dynamic as Makar to my eye and played like half the game.
Correct, QH played 31:18
Since January 1st of this year, Bouchard has the 3rd most points in the entire league. Bouchard holds the line with complete dominance, his passing is unworldly, Bouchard is the one running neck and neck with prime Coffey. Bouchard was the one that put the Joseph goal into action, scored the game winning goal while Hughes was in the penalty box.
I think you are right but I wonder if he just moves Dach to the 2W and keeps that fourth line together? For me, Hallander is the clear scratch over any of those on last night’s 4th line.
Of course, Howard to 2W and Dach to 4W works as well.
This also COULD be a split McDavid and Drai time – Babcock has said that could happen at times once “he has more pieces” – is Nuge “enough pieces”?
I’d drop Formenton personally. Hallander seems to move and get back enough, Formenton is always cheating for offense and is a big reason why his line is so high event. I don’t think he brings enough at offense to cover over his warts defensively. Throw Hallander, Dach, or even Howard, on that line and I think it does all the good things with fewer of the running around in its own end things. Michaels is a new centre to the league and for him to carry around the defensive responsibility for 2/3s of the line is asking a bit much.
Sid has a post up on Substack which talks about that line and his suggestions for improvement.
Agree on Formenton. I think he’s got some of the Ryan Jones in him.
I see no reason to break up what has been a good line so far this season.
Coach says Nuge is back next game and he’ll have more center depth and be able to roll things more. I think, if Nuge was back for last night’s game, he may have worked to get the McDavid line away from the Karizov line a bit more.
My goodness was that ever a beatdown loss on that match-up at 5 on 5 last night – rare for that line to get dominated like that.
Kudos to lines 2-4, in particular the bottom two lines. That fourth line was outstanding, to the tune of 90% plus expected goals. Less than 7 minutes with all the special teams but, for me, Howard has earned the right to stay in the lineup over Hallander tomorrow with Nuge back
Levi was fantastic, looking more and more like he could turn into Bowman’s best trade.
Not sure what Howard has to do to get some playing time with skill, but I do think that he has earned it.