The Edmonton Oilers own a five-on-five goal differential of 64 percent, Minnesota Wild are at 53 percent. How the two teams get there is fascinating. Edmonton’s GF-60 is 3.86, Wild’s is 2.23. Massive gap. However, the Wild are built for the Final out of the box, surrendering just 1.95 goals-60.
Here is where the Mike Babcock Oilers are different than the McLellan, Hitchcock, Tippett, Woodcroft and (mostly) Knoblauch Oilers. Edmonton’s five-on-five GA-60 this season? 2.16. Helluva thing. Last year, that number was 2.76 GA-60. We have to retire ‘same as it ever was’ and adopt a new slogan. I recommend ‘what the hell is going on out there?’ until Game 20.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
- On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1) Actual 3-0-0
- At home to: Mammoth (1-0) Actual 0-1-0
- On the road to: Mammoth (0-0-1) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2)
- On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 6-1-1, 13 points in eight games
I have tonight as a loss, but this prediction came before the season began. I think the return of Hyman offers some choices for the head coach and we’ll see what the final days under an October sky bring us.
Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl have played 99 minutes five-on-five. 14-1 goals, 93 percent. 8.52 goals-60! Assuming 12 minutes tonight for this line, math says they’ll score. Minnesota may not agree, and may stop the trio. They better pack a lunch because it’s going to take them all day.
Hyman-Dach-Kapanen is a brand new line, have played just 13 minutes together. No goals yet, but a 62 percent expected goal share in those limited minutes. Babcock is stubborn on Dach at center, I’m a fan because it’s a young player he is trying to get more from. MacT used to do that, and it does expand the talent pool. Most of these experiments fail (Pisani, Hall), but until all the actual centers are healthy it’s an interesting follow.
Formenton-Michaels-Joseph is 66 minutes in at five-on-five and is surprisingly high event. A 44 percent goal share is a concern, but 3.6 goals-60 is a shocker. Expected share is 35 percent, so my guess is the Oilers analytics folks are flagging this trio for an upgrade when Nuge gets back. Alex Formenton is the only burner on the line, so we could see another right winger slide in for Joseph.
Hallander-Frederic-Howard have played just eight minutes and surrendered a goal. Howard (98th percentile) and Frederic (89th) are both bringing the speed and we’ll see about Hallander. With Nuge coming in, I suspect someone from this line may sit.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guest is Shawn Belle. We’ll talk about the impressive return for Jake Walman and about how difficult it can be to play at less than 100 percent. It’s also the round table, three Greyhounds (Declan Krueger, Josh Fenwick, Donovan Paulson) chasing the basset hound (me). Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
What high end Babcockish forwards are available?
Slim pickens especially with DeBrincat resigning.
Forsberg? O’Reilly? Not great.
Unfortunately I wasn’t able to watch last night, both the Jets & Oilers games were blacked out for me in NS. I see per NST the xGA for the Oilers was 5.37. Good job by Levi keeping the GA to 3. Any insight why it was so high? They’ve been doing so well, just quality of competition given it was Minny?
Did the broadcast show how rarified air Connor is in?
Players with at least 25 pts through 9 GP:
Lemieux 33, Bossy 28, Gretz 27, McDavid 26, Brent Sutter 25, Marcel Dionne 25. only achieved in the 1979-89 era. Best numbers listed, some of these guys did it more than once…
The top achievements for pts in first 10 GP
numbers of goals as tie-breaker
McDavid would lose all tie-breakers, unless he gets 1G2A in game 10 (sitting next to Gretzky in T-4). Doing nothing against Carolina would still leave him in the top 10.
1st player even to get 20 assists in less than 10 games….
Finally a goalie who doesn’t sound like a nervous head case in interviews.
I’m betting the team feels much, much better when he plays compared to many other goalies.
None of Skinner, Pickard or Ingram sounded like a nervous head case….
Agree – our most recent goalies have all been pretty calm and steady personalities, and the team played hard for them. But they were all pretty limited skill wise.
Levi’s the most athletic goalie we’ve seen since maybe Cujo. You can see why he was consistently ranked among the top the prospect goalies for 4-5 years straight.
He gets beat high, which is partly due to have a shorter stature compared to the giants in net these days, but is also a function of how good the shooters have become. That Kaprizov goal beats every goalie in the league. And even the big goalies can beat high (e.g. the short side Bouch bomb to win the game in OT on Wallstedt).
Getting Levi for a couple of mid-round picks may end up being an even bigger steal than the Podkolzin deal.
It was only the 3rd round pick given up – Bowman got a 7th rounder with Levi.
Terrific game. Kind of surprised they won after Minny levelled. Tending was great and the PK much better. The times might just be a’changing.
Cale Makar with another horrible defensive effort for a breakaway goal against.
He’s had some HIGHLY VISIBLE October 2025 Bouchard like blunders in the last week.
Those twins will be a handful.
Coach said Nuge will be back next game and they will be better off center wise.
Christmas has come early! Great news
Knights down 3 at home going in to the third vs. Tampa.
Ducks and Avs both lost in regulation to middling Eastern teams.
Seattle did manage to hold on for a SO win after blowing a 3 goal lead to Detroit.
If the first game holds, Oilers will remain one point out of first in the NHL in straight points with 2 games in hand and they will have a fairly large lead over 2nd in points percentage (they’ll be first either way in P%).
I’m of the firm belief, that if the Oilers had actually drafted Wallstedt, he’d be a reclamation project by now.
Skinner’s back up under a shotty defensive team? Minny still has that Lemaire in them.
Levi is the new kid on the block.
Yes. This is the best timeline.
Let’s not get too high on Skinner or Levi, for that matter.
Skinner has shown stretches of brilliance before. He also started that way with Pittsburgh, only to deteriorate over the season and lose his starters role in the playoffs, with a different team. He’s been the Ricky Bobby of goalies, with a consistently high % of really bad starts. In the season when the oilers gave up some of the lowest HDSC, his numbers were still lackluster and for some reason Oilers D was blamed. He also has a 50 game playoff sample size now, and his performance in both standard and advanced metrics was awful. Not an exaggeration. We didn’t wreck him, and while I like him as a human, if he has a Vezina year, it’s voodoo.
Different from Dubnyk, who had good underlying numbers but was thrown away after a quarter season of subpar play behind a truly porous D, and predictably rebounded when given a chance.
Levi, on the other hand, had to play behind tanking Buffalo teams for years. That was a surefire way to destroy a goalie’s confidence (see: Wolf, Flames). Then, when the team finally got it together, they opted for UPL and co. while he didn’t play. Levi was therefore more of a legitimate bounce-back candidate, whose development and numbers actually seemed to have been hi hindered by Buffalo. But even then, it’s too early to tell. His S% is firmly under .900 still, and his goals saved above expected was still in the red.
But Levi’s sequence of what they would call quality starts since game 2 is the most important factor and the intangible thing that has us believing, because it has a high correlation with winning, moreso than save percentage within a game. Ingram actually had a pretty good % of QS last year, but also had some really bad starts. Jarry was uncharacteristically and shockingly bad at both last year, but also has picked it up in the early going.
Wallstedt looks good so far was an unforced error given what Edmonton picked. FWIW his standard metrics last year were buoyed by the Wild being the Wild, and his goals saved above expected/60 last year were on par with Skinner and Ingram. So let’s also see how he handles an entire season as a starter
Thank you for that, honestly. Much appreciated. Young kids with miles ahead and hopefully, many duels to come.
I’ll comment again sometime if it brings such good insight.
I just don’t want to ride the highs and lows with these goalies! There is a stat that says that a “quality start,” which generally correlates with above average S% for the season, correlates with high win rates, while a “really bad start” is more strongly correlated with a loss. Skinner continued this high RBS rate in Pittsburgh, and it was as high as (don’t quote me) 40% in some playoff seasons. Goals saved above expected is what others value, and it varies from NST to Moneypuck. Both I think give a more full picture than just S% and provide supplemental info to the argument that a team “broke” a goalie. a goalie with bad team D can have a bad S% but a GSAE that shines. That D will also affect QS% and RBS%, for what it’s worth. In skinners case, in the playoffs, the GSAE was negative and jived with him being full value for his really bad start %.
I also value what our eyes see, and the Levi oilers debut vs all others and the Jarry pre-injury vs post-injury were nigjt and day
Fantastic post.
Was just watching that Ted Lasso episode in season 1 where they are trying to beat Everton for the first time in 60 years. It was a great encapsulation of how the Oilers must feel every time they play Minny. Which is why I will never criticize a win against the Wild.
Ironically it took the kit manager taking the piss out of all of them in order for them to unleash the beast. Babcock effect? Not sure I really care. Bank these 2 and rest up for a Canes team that has experienced unexpected difficulties with Western Canadian basement dwellers x 2
Minny games used to be sooooo painful.
Great analogy
I bet Bouchard wouldn’t have missed a wide open net in the Olympics on a pass from Connor.
2030😉
So the top line all -2 tonight????? Bouch -1
-2 +/- for each of McDraiBouchPodz, but have 8 points between them. Special teams and Levi won the night.
Like seasons past, minus Levi
Opposite of the first Utah game.
1st line got CRUSHED but the Wild’s top line – like less than 25% expected goal share for the top line.
4th line (obviously NOT playing against the Wild top line) was 90% plus…
The camera man did that poor teenage Minnesota fan dirty, cutting to him in tears after the winner…..
Brings a tear to me own eye.
Reminds me of when EDM straight cancelled the Turtle Phlegms.
The Booouchday boy!!
What a fantastic game!
Levi earned the win tonight.
Norris Bouchard has levelled up.
I’m so happy (so far) that we’re not talking about boosh-blunders… he’s just playing too damn well.
No huge “blunders” tonight but some tough 5 on 5 moments – lost to battle behind the net on the fist goal and was in the picture on the Kaprizov goal (although I’m not sure if he was culpable – maybe it was Shea late on the Ekholm change – not sure if Bouch should have done something else.
End of the day, he was 4-2 goal overall with assist, created the Joseph goal (no point) and that wicked OT winner.
What a player.
I’m not going to be too hard on Bouch for the Kaprizov goal … yes, he got behind Bouch, but IMO it was an example of a true goal scorer doing what he does best … he got lost in the coverage for a moment, then burst into the open ice before the Oilers D could adjust, took the pass in stride, and ripped a laser into the top corner far side.
Gorgeous goal … not sure anyone on earth could have stopped him.
And Bouch made amends with an even better snipe in OT.
This has never happened before. And now it is happening again!
🩷
The first real application of the new adopted paradox. I’m a fan.
They keep finding ways to win.
Happy birthday Bouch.
Bouch sick.
well, how about that, the PP regressed to the upside.
Nice dub
Whew..!
That top line for MIN is fire….not tonight though..!
Bouch Birthday Bomb!
Nice. I am sitting in Seattle Airport reduced to “watching” the play by play on the Athletic. A little anxious starting at a mostly blank screen. Way to go boys
Did Levi just out battle Wallstedt?
What a game from the young man.
That kick save late in the third was the difference. Big save in a big moment.
I jumped in my seat, my dog did not appreciate it
Just absolutely beat him clean – what a shot, like we say that a lot but THAT one was special!
Actually it caught the shaft of Wallstedt’s stick and deflected up… but would’ve probably gone post-in otherwise. Unstoppable.
Win!
There isn’t a shooter in the league I’d pick over that guy right now.
Norris scores!
What a laser.
Oodelaley!!!
2 POINTS!!!!
Bouchard had a nice game.
He had his roughest 5 on 5 game of the year, by far but came through as he often does.
Fermez la Bouuuuuuch!
Everything was tight!
HUGE WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bouchard should be the focus on a 4on3
Ha what a bone head move by Houghes
Hah!
McDavid – Draisaitl – Bouchard
vs
Kaprizov – Boldy – Hughes
Let’s go!
Oilers were reeling for most that period they clearly have a lot of work to do.
This team, without Nuge and Dickinson, cannot sit back against a higher opposition like Minny.
Their top line is a top 5 line in hockey + the 2nd line is a load + Houghes never comes off. Tough ask for the three 3rd lines for the Oilers
Guess we will see if our OT play/strategy is good tonight!
Oilers didn’t get a single shot on goal in the last 10 minutes. I’m expecting them to lose in OT
I’m glad I was wrong!
Me too!
POINT!
The important thing is LT is wrong.
In the bank
This third is more on the Oilers than Minny, some old habits are hard to kick. 4th line is way under 10mins and they had some good shifts. Freddy proved his worth, and yet in a physical game, he’s not being played.
I’d say the Wild have climbed into my top three disliked teams. Decent team, but grimey.
Levi has been a revelation.
The chat on the athletic from all the Min fans was noxious. Glad I had this place to fall back to while all the betting ads were playing
Did minny bring the kryptonite out for the third?
Seriously!?
They leave the middle open every rush up ice. D and fowards along the boards in neutral zone for some reason.
This. ^
This was an issue last season especially with how nurse and bouchard get sucked to the walls
The D just get spread to wide. Non puck side D has to slide to middle
Ouch. Minnesota is gearing up, Oilers have been a little flat.
Letting guys in behind their own defence….cant hapoen against good teams…
Now they let another one in alone on Levi’s…
Not a big fan of 14’s decision to change there.
Bailed out mighty early on a not at all crisp zone exit.
Michaels 4 / 14 on the dot!
That’s kinda sad…let kaprizov have a breakaway with 10 left. Gotta be smarter.