Edmonton Oilers coach Mike Babcock is getting to know his players, and Edmonton Oilers fans are getting to know Mike Babcock. So far, things have been very good. The team is off to a fine start and the Oilers best players are the Oilers best players. However, there is some room to grow. We saw some cracks last night. How will Babcock respond? Please read this.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
- On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1) Actual 3-0-0
- At home to: Mammoth (1-0) Actual 0-1-0
- On the road to: Mammoth (0-0-1) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2) Actual 2-1-0
- On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 8-2-1, 17 points in 11 games
Life is weird. I had Minnesota and Carolina as the losses, and then three straight wins. The Maple Leafs are finding out some good things about themselves and it showed last night. The Oilers have a goalie problem and a third line problem, and Mike Babcock has a ‘how am I going to find an offensive driver for the second line if it isn’t Leon’ problem. How he solves it will inform the November record.
LINES AND PAIRINGS AND THE GOALIE
- Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl 12:09, 10-8 shots, 0-2 goals, 43X
- Hyman-Nuge-Kapanen 10:52, 6-6 shots, 0-1 goals, 63X
- Formenton-Michaels-Joseph 10:43, 4-7 shots, 0-1 goals, 3X
- Jones-Dach-Hallander 6:21, 2-4, 68X
The GA won’t tell the entire story, because Tristan Jarry let in many on a night when a few would have been about right based on the quality of chances. However, the third line (Michaels) is 5-8 goals five-on-five with a 34 percent expected share. That’s in 94 minutes. Babcock is going to have to check down from that line. Soon. Now.
The McDavid line is regressing after an historic start, no one can point to that trio and be criticial. Of course Babcock will have to at least contemplate placing Draisaitl on the second line, but we always knew it would be the case. The Oilers have the best center depth chart on the planet, but only if they use it.
The key to the second line will be high-danger chances for Zach Hyman. He needs to be the driver on the unit. The line has played 24 minutes together, 0-2 goals, but six HDSC’s and that a fine number. Need to cash. That’ll be Hyman. Filip Hallander had two HDSCs from the fourth line, and I’d switch him out with Formenton but expect I’m stone alone there.
Before we move on to the defense and goaltending, let’s run the entire forward pool’s five-on-five expected GA-60:
- Jason Dickinson 1.52
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.25
- Max Jones 2.27
- Filip Hallander 2.49
- Kasperi Kapanen 2.50
- Leon Draisaitl 2.53
- Zach Hyman 2.54
- Connor McDavid 2.63
- Vasily Podkolzin 2.82
- Alex Formenton 2.82
- Mathieu Joseph 2.84
- Colton Dach 2.86
- Trent Frederic 2.9
- Owen Michaels 3.18
- Ike Howard 3.63
- Josh Samanski 4.05
Babcock isn’t a coach who sets his lineup by expected goals, but the HS of Howard and Frederic yesterday matches the X numbers. The next move? Michaels out, Draisaitl to No. 2 center and bring back Howard (gotta play the kid or send him down).
- Mukhammadullin-Emberson 12:13, 1-9 shots, 0-2 goals 1X
- Shea-Bouchard 9:54, 7-2 shots, 66X
- Shea-Murphy 9:25, 4-5 shots, 0-1, 35X
- Walman-Bouchard 6:42, 8-6 shots, 52X
- Walman-Murphy 5:22, 0-4 shots, 0-1 goals, 22X
- Mukhammadullin-Bouchard 2:09, 1-0 shots, 100X
- Mukhammadullin-Murphy 2:01, 0-1 shots, 15X
- Shea-Emberson 1:02, 1-0 shots, 100X
Well that’s a mess right there. When it’s easier to identify the pairings that are a must to avoid than the ones that work, you have a version of the 1974-75 Washington Capitals. Hopefully Ekholm gets better soon, but I would run Shea-Bouchard, Walman-Emberson and Carfagna-Murphy. Get well, Mattias! Tristan Jarry was 23-28 (.821) at five-on-five, 25-31 (.806) overall. Expected goals 3.10, he let in six.
Not close to good enough, but don’t blame one man for the game. Maple Leafs played well, for all the talk about their poor defense that crew got in the way of pucks and bodies and moved the puck out well and under control.
Babcock and his coaching staff badly need to get back to where they once belonged. I saw many out of those damnable stretch passes and wayward hookups that resulted in icings and quick returns by the Torontos into Edmontno’s zone. Inefficient. Silly, considering Babcock’s entire coaching career has been built on control. His team was in control of not much from anthem to the final whistle. I’ll be interested to see the tweaks made before the Monday game.
Ranking 6 Edmonton Oilers players and prospects most likely to be traded
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7720429/2026/10/25/edmonton-oilers-trade-players-prospects-2026/
Woodguy is posting again.
Today is a good day.
To the downvoters – lets hope wheatnoil also comes back!
Oilers playing like it’s preseason…again…
Summarizing!
Lewandowski incurred no soup despite a game-high 5 SOG.
Cameron was a spectator today. (His understudy was roughed up too, so maybe Cameron gets the crease back next game?)
Prospecting takes a break until Tiw’s Day.
@EdmontonOilers
A decade at @RogersPlace deserves something special. Celebrate with $10 parking, $10 burgers $10 t-shirts at every #Oilers home game.
Straight out of the car dealership playbook. Increase incentives, do not decrease ticket prices. Available at 1 kiosk in the lower bowl…. free enterprise and all that.
I subscribed to Oilers+ on the date of the first exhibition game to watch the 3 non-televised games. I subscribed last season for the same reason, but after exhibition season, I looked at it twice the entire year.
This year I paid my money, could not get the app to link to my tv, so I could not watch the game. I cancelled about 3 hours after I had subscribed. I expected my money would been refunded, but it was not.
I reached out to them last week and was informed that a refund went against the terms of service. I still have access, so this is how they play it. I doubt I’ll ever use it, in fact I deleted the app.
I honestly think they take their fans for granted and I believe the mindset of OEG Leadership is that they can charge or do what they want and the fans will keep coming.
It is a multibillion dollar business that does enough to keep the demand viable for profit, and customer service isn’t a priority.
This experience has completely rubbed me the wrong way. I will not step foot in Rogers Place or purchase Oilers merchandise ever again.
My hypothesis is that Babcock is playing McDavid and Draisaitl together because he needs them to learn to play systematically, and the best way to do that is for them to that and to trust playing systematically is for them to play together, while they are racking up billions of points.
We all know that this is not likely the optimal deployment, but both McDavid and Draisaitl have to be convinced that this is not the optimal deployment, so they will not be clamoring to get back together when they are split, and will be 100% committed to driving their own line, and not look at the coach to be put back together when the Oilers are down by a goal.
By playing them together, Babcock can also more reliably evaluate the rest of the forwards to determine who actually is the most effective without the McDavid or Draisailt assist.
It also exposes the crap roster that Bowman has put together since taking control, and will give him more say in personnel decisions going forward.
Babcock also believes in systematic play, so he is not going to be flipfloping the lines like Knoblouch used to do. He will want the system played better before he optimizes the lines.
Formenton Michaels Joseph is probably the fourth line at the end of all of this, right. Maybe Hallander or Dach or Janmarke in place of Formenton. They are playing too high in the roster right now.
The two goals against last night were really not McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s fault. It was Bouchard cheating with no cover on the first goal against, and a horrific defensive line change by Bouchard and Walman on the 2nd goal against.
— I dunno. You’re willing to give Babs the benefit of doubt that he’s an excellent coach.
— this remains to be seen.
— to be fair most of the roster is below Mendoza line and he definitely is a systems coach
— let’s see. The test will be the inevitable bunch more games below Hundo PDO as dictated by math
— by the end of November: 3 b2bs and 3 3 games in 4 nights with a long road trip in the last three weeks in November
— culminating with the H&H vs Seattle: should get a real sense for this team is and what Babs meaningful impact will be IMO
Oilers PDO still 104-105.
Top in PP and GF, shite for GA and PK.
I hope we aren’t riding a merry go round for the first 20 games.
Bowman really struggles finding forwards outside of Podkolzin,
Is it fair to say depth forwards are Bowman’s kryptonite?
The thing is…Podkolzin was an “accident”. Bowman only did it because he did not match the Holloway offer sheet, otherwise he would have done it before he did not match the offer sheet.
Holloway really should have had no impact on whether Podkolzin was or was not traded for.
I don’t think you like Dubas much, from what I can recall. When it comes to cheap forwards, he’s one of the best at finding them.
For a hair over the cap of Frederick and Dickinson:
Pittsburgh – Dubas’s bargain acquisitions
Avery Hayes – Undrafted FA – $905K
Rutger McGroarty – Brayden Yager – $950K
Elmer Söderblom – 2026 3rd-round pick – $1.125M
Hendrix Lapierre – 2027 3rd + 2028 5th – $1.30M
Blake Lizotte – Free agent – $2.25M
Connor Dewar – Acquired with Conor Timmins for a 2025 5th – $2.25M
TOTAL CAP HIT: $8.78M
Don’t forget:Justin Brozeau 2 x $1.5 million
Oh yeah, wow. He’s been injured. Amazing find.
17 goals last season. 6’6”.
Pretty obvious Bowman goes with his gut on the big deals, and I suspect the analytics folks help him with the smaller ones. He would have been unfamiliar with the Oilers numbers people when he made that move. I wonder if it was already in place? Don’t know. Agree it was a curious time line. I think Bowman gets credit because how else are we going to dole out the credit/blame. But it’s curious.
Need good enough centers for wingers to be overly effective?
29-97-92 outscored 5-1 at 5v5 this week.
They had an unbelievable run but there were/are glaring cracks in the foundation. They should be split. If they are lobbying to stick together, which seems reasonable to assume, it is hard to see an optimal lineup where the other three lines don’t get crushed. It isn’t sustainable, especially given the injuries. Corgis have not been barking. Big boys look tired.
“We want to be coached,” well do they want to score 200 points or do they want a Stanley Cup? Would be stunned if Crosby and Malkin played on the same line on a decimated forward group.
— obviously McDs best 10 games in the history was super fun.
— it’s just though the same as it ever was : 2 goals from McDrai line and nada and game over. Other teams just rinse and repeat and we are an easy out unless supernova McDraiBouch.
— I’m a little less sanguine than some.
— The team ran a hot PDO and once that reverses it’s going to require a lot more than what we’ve seen y-t-d.
— Im with WG : we could have been free and clear of Skinner and bit the bullet.
— There’s a reason they want to 3-headed G : unfortunately we gonna have to run Jarry for a few weeks : good thing we banked some points
— starting to get into the meat of season.
— I hope for the best but fear the worst…
— My 7 year old played in his first “tournament” 4 games in 3 days. Kid was ear to ear grin. Emptied the tank and it’s so fun to watch your kids play a sport they love.
LFGOILERS!!
That was a beat down last night. It’s going to happen, but there has been evidence that it was building. Now we wait to see Coach Babcock’s next move
A couple re-posts that are better in a post game thread.
it’s crazy to say but this may actually be the worst depth of the McDavid era. They all kind of just suck. xG%;
Then 4 middling (average) guys in that 47-50% range in Shea, Walman, Hyman and Kapanen.
And then it’s the 27 Yankees dragging this team along.
I like what i visually see in formenton, joesph and hallander.
But the centre depth and running your two best centers together is aggrivating it.
If nuge is center -> i’d prefer him on a solid 3rd line edition not 2nd.
Because this team isn’t soft icing with tilted offense for soft 2nd minute line with PP1 or PP2 value added of some more one dimensional offenssively talented value contract forwards.
Nuge special teams heavy usage minutes less minutes even strength to balance makes sense to me.
This will sound rhetorical but it truly isn’t. I would love someone to give me answer.
You have three game states in the sport of hockey with which you can play Connor McDavid. You also have a cap on the total number of minutes he can play and remain so by playing him in one state you can’t play him as much in another.
So Babcock and I agree the McDavid should play as much PP as can handle since he seems to be very good at it.
Why does Babcock think McDavid is better short handed than he is at even strength?
He’s not just “not world class” at it. He’s not “pretty good”. He’s not “average”. He’s flat out bad. How bad?
His PK/60 rates are a near match for his PP/60 rates meaning he effectively turns every other teams PP into playing against himself.
It’s a 16 minute sample, where his GA60 is similar to Bouchard’s. He also leads the team in PK xGF60 (3.68) and xGF% (26%) over that same sample.
I would add that by eye McDavid seems to play the high-pressure style of PK very well because of his ability to close gaps very quickly.
maybe Tompkins can start 🤔 but i think the team wont use goaltending as a excuse
the problem is the Oilers home game isn’t as patient as the road game, they where really pushing for offence and Stolarz shut the big line down.
Hockeystats.com has EDM in 32nd place for team goaltending with -9.4 5v5 GSaX.
Natural stat trick has Oilers HDSV% at .769 even strength. Caps/Pens/Mams/Devs only teams that are worse but not by much. Let’s see the Hella effect in NJ to come.
Meanwhile the B’s just keep on trucking with .921 HDSV%. Unreal. In a copycat league they should be studied with what they’ve done recently. Always in the hunt, bend don’t break.
with the devils getting Hellybuyck there are only 3 teams with worse 5v5 hdsv
For the record. I didn’t much like Carrier’s hit on Ekholm.
It was very poorly captured on a bad camera angle during the game..
Ekholm was in a puck race to the corner where he beat Carrier and got the puck moving up the ice.
As he was turning with speed in the corner, Carrier leaned in with his shoulder but gave him a shove with his bands into the boards.
Not the type of play that gets a supplemental discipline. Probably could have been a boarding call. Certainly a dangerous play.as Ekholm also didn’t see him.
What did you folks think?
I winced at the time and on replay you can see Ekholm’s head hit and that’s bad news. The intent was to hit hard and once Ekholm lost his feet anything could happen. Agree it isn’t a call, but could have been, but hard to make the argument. Camera angles seem limited this year.
I also didnt like it at all. On replay in slow motion it looks like Carrier takes Eks feet out with his trailing leg as he is hitting him, and this is how he fell so awkwardly on his head.
So basically like a slew foot but not as obvious based on the angle and being up against the boards.
Hockey is a fast and hard game played with ill intent. The difference between a hard clean hit and a marginally dirty hit is small. Carrier meant to hit Ekholm hard and separate him from the puck. He wasn’t trying to end his career or anything – the game has come along way since Ulf Samuelsson on Neely or Bryan Marchment on pretty much anyone. But players are still going to get injured when you’ve got mass and speed colliding … that’s what I saw on that play … a good hard bodycheck.
There is physicality and there is intent to injure.
Carrier crossed the line with this hit when he used his right leg to lift up Ekholm while slamming him into the boards and used his knee like a fulcrum, pushing him over his knee with the intent to take his feet out from under him to have him land hard on the ice.
Carrier is a very experienced hitter, he had the leverage on the much taller man and he knew exactly what he was doing. I don’t think for a second that he intended to have Ek hit his head on the ice, but he wanted him to collide with the ice with force to make him hurt.
<https://youtube.com/shorts/vcC3k5uI3V8?si=Tlixkb-SFWSytAO9>
Like I said … it’s a game played with ill intent. Don’t like it; watch figure skating instead.
Lt, if that isn’t the classiest way to say we have a Shakir Mukhamadullin problem, I can’t think of a better way.
Shakir Mukhamadullin – 5v5 Stats (6 GP)
TOI: 74.1 minutes (12:21/game)
Goals Against/60: 7.29
Goals For/60: 0.81
Goal Share: 10.0%
Expected Goals Against/60: 2.94
Expected Goals For/60: 1.00
Expected Goal Share: 25.4%
Corsi For: 31.6%
Shots For: 29.3%
Scoring Chances For: 29.3%
High-Danger Chances For: 28.6%
On-Ice Save Percentage: .780
PDO: .839
Small sample, but absolutely brutal numbers. Outscored 9–1 at 5v5, with opponents controlling roughly 70% of shots and scoring chances.
This should give him a clear path to Bako without getting claimed!
If he does get claimed and someone takes his two year deal at 1.7 or whatever do we really care?
I’d like to think he can work things out in Bako and at least be a useful depth guy. But the temptation of ‘large young man on waivers’ might be too great to make it past 31 other GMs.
We can also see why Mukhammadullin couldn’t stay in a weak SJS D line up.
Time to bring up the best LHD on the farm.
He’s like a low rent Nurse.
Great physical tools but seems to not understand how plays develop and where to be/how to defend each play
Yeah i was saying that last night. Like sometimes you have to risk a waiver loss of future value if it isn’t up to task of carrying on roster.
They made a call on 3 goalies on roster. There is a risk that should have been accepted in that in a win now scenario.
The loss of intriguing potential asset does not overly diminish replacing a unique physically gifted but in more ways built to roam over being your shutdown anchoring dman with a half price better fit.
I don’t disagree with any of this, but do have a question. In San Jose, he was being asked to play on the right side. In the pre-season and his first two starts in the regular season, he was playing on the right side.
Is part of the issue that placement/usage has impacted results? When you’re a young d-man, it takes time to get used to the speed of the game. Having to do that on the wrong side is a further imposition.
Not saying that’s an excuse, nor am I saying he might benefit from a reset in Bakersfield where he can play on the left. But before we just toss him in the trash bin, maybe it’s time to do something to help his development. Just not in Edmonton where the goals are much higher.
I don’t think anyone claims Shakir if he’s waived. And if they do, it’s their loss.
Shak should have been sent to the Condors. There was thinking that we would for sure be claimed. I’m not sure that would be a bad thing. He’s not ready.
This team (like most) gets deflated by shitty goaltending
1/4 season of Skinner for 2 1/4 seasons of Jarry at ~$5MM (plus Kulak to make the $ work) when their results were almost interchangeable was a choice I bet Bowman regrets.
I think jarry to a degree is confidence and fit damaged in way he should have been moved prior to season even at cost of assets.
Like there was no team building in fact the opposite when he returned from too early injured.
Vet non elite goalie isn’t really a vet until he plays for his 2nd team.
Jarry went full spoiled beeatch in his post game comments in a way those guys were surely putting their face in front of pucks hoping pickard could outplay him.
A goalie not trusted or loved by team as the landing was fa cked up at start is a bad bet.
That trade was a poor bet at the time.
My guess is that it will take roughly 20 games at 93 at 2C for Bancock to move away from it.
Dickinson is back soon and that will ostensibly give a 93 line some cover
Then 22 will be back and Babcock will want to see some games of 93 at 2C with all top 6 wingers available (assuming health)
So I guess my guess is December before 97 amd 29 are on different lines.
Ah please approve last comment made.
Nice to see you in comments woodguy
A tale of 2 schedules. The next 9 games look like this:
DET, CGY, @NYI, @NYR, @NJ, ANA, VAN, NYR, PHIL
Best to pile up some points, as after that comes:
@TOR, @PHIL, @FLA, @TB, @CAR, @ST.L, VGS, SEA, @SEA, BUFF, WASH,
@CHI, @MIN, @BUFF, @OTT, @MTL, DALL, UTAH, ANA
Going to be very interesting 6 weeks …
That eastern roadtrip is brutal.
6 games in 9 days with 2 B2Bs then flying home to face Vegas.
What’s your opinion on these trades to get Voronkov, I think he would be a good asset, he’s on an expiring contract and an RFA, at very worst you flip him if he doesn’t workout.
1st trade to clear cap space
Oilers
Future considerations
Vancouver
Janmark 1x$1.45 remaining UFA
2028 St Louis 3rd round pick
or
Beau Akey (or player who has NHL potential but is probably not going to get the opportunity with the Oilers)
2nd trade
Oilers
Dimitri Voronkov 1x$4.18 remaining RFA
CBJ
Shakir Mukhamadullin 2x$1.75 remaining RFA
Might not be enough, might need to add a draft pick but Voronkov is having a down year.
Does CBJ do this deal?
Also not sure why vancity would care to do us much in way of favours.
Likely akey and the 3rd i’d guess for them to care to bite in season and waste some of their cap in hand for best assets at deadline
Vancouver has like 17 million in cap space. They aren’t even slightly impacting their deadline plus they are the worse team in the league.
Taking in a minimal cap hit for a decent prospect or 3rd round draft pick is what bad teams do, it builds up their assets. Them doing it literally has no impact on them versus the Oilers besides the fact that they are in the same division, not competing in the slightest.
Voronkov is playing on the 4th line, to be qualified, will need a raise and they need left handed D, especially young ones with potential. Like I said you might have to add to it, but they are also right against the cap so it adds the savings of 2.5 in cap space for a player that is signed also next year.
LT or anyone. Do you think the Frederic and Howard HS’s was a direct shot from Babcock to Bowman?
Bowman coveted both players, so he obviously likes them and Babs sits both in a big home ice game.
maybe I am reading too much into it ….
My take is that neither are in danger of going down when Dickenson comes back so Babcock played everyone else to have a fair audition for who stays among those in danger of losing their spot on the roster
Did you come to any conclusions?
What will happen when Dickinson, Janmark are available to play off IR & when Savoie is off LTIR and ready to go. IMO. Micheals, & Howard will be Bako bound and Jones goes on waivers. When Fererick Anderson is ready Janmark is waived or traded.
I don’t think so. Simply howard isn’t a priority a new coach trying to fix “whatever you do don’t because oilers shit bed to start season…grinding our best players at season end desperate for wins just to qualify has really hurt us. Last year was the no shat exclamation point version that truly was inevitable and called by many amateur pundits prior to season starting”
P.s. “yes someone in management surely reads this comment section and we are sorry we didn’t fire knoblauch pretty early in season when it was clear plot had been lost”
It won’t be popular but we have to recognize what happens when you take out Nurse.
Ekholm is out and decline could be predicted. The “big guy” to fill his spot looked not so good, he loses so many puck battles and coverage. (Shakir)
Walman has been questionable since his first 20 games. Poor coverage, turns the wrong way often, skating has been poor, out of position. I have no idea what’s up there but this was well discussed in summer.
Funny, I brought this up with the lady last night after that sickening and dangerous trip by Roslovic that sent Walman to the dressing room. I was actually told to “calm down” after the 15th “F” shot. Then of course I had to explain his injury history and that Nurse was a solid bet for 82 games a season. I got some ribbing when he came back so quickly. I still think someone should have dropped that little punk for that terrible and unacceptable play.
At 9 million and change cap:
Nurse is not a solid bet as your last man back, heavy dzone usage, can’t risk skating puck out of danger but can’t pass worth a damn.
I feel bad for him honestly.
I did not see being slapped with same usage for sharks.
Like used properly there is value in him left.
But good gord not that direction.
Walman just not back in groove since 1st injury is unfortunately costing us.
But like he’s clearly altering his game in realtime in a hard market to do so.
Like he usn’t railroading bodies just physically crushing it noticable all over ice. Transition required to stay effective or be relegated to a 7-8 dman contract quality “he had some pretty solid years earlier”.
Does he have to hockey IQ to adapt effectively less reliant on pure physical or is he just not mentally confident blocked from resuming the level he arrived here playing at?
That us a coaching land player level confidential assessment. I wouldn’t care to guess but it would be a very priority thing i would be trying to figure out with entire coaching staff in a way where you aren’t over emphasizing it obvious to player.
I was screaming that i hoped they would deal him at last years deadline. Like 2 important a contract to gamble with if there is much gray area in why he’s just a ghost of intial player.
But he is here. We are better huge way if his game returns to form.
I hope the fans don’t sacrificial goat him in hot rush. Like too many times to lamb to slaughter by mob target is fans hurting teams chances in these parts IMO.
Cheering like hell for him at this point
Getting rid of Nurse allowed for us to get Shea + 4-5 million in cap space. Nurse is getting absolutely caved on the Sharks btw.
I think it was necessary to move on so they can move forward. It might cause some hiccups this season, and that means the management team has to shore things up. At least Bowman et al are active
Great lines that catch fire are typically greater than the sum of their parts, e.g. Draisaitl/RNH/Yamamoto during 19/20 season.
The super line does not have overly impressive underlying metrics the past few seasons all things considered. Very hard to make that line greater than the sum of its parts when two of the best players on the world are on it.
The solution to improving scoring depth is so simple (checking down to Draisaitl at 2C) that it begs the question about what is driving the decision making process in terms of line 1 deployment.
One has to think Draisaitl/McDavid are a large factor at this point.
Another learning game.
What happens when the team doesn’t show up, isn’t playing well, not ready, goalie is questionable, top line is not producing?
So the answer for most teams is you stick to the system, you go back to the system, you rely on the system, and that should at least keep you close.
What I seen was a complete abandonment of the system in a returned old habits. To do that Oilers need to win based on talent, skill, and battle level on an individual basis.
Top line start to force things again, carry when they should dump it, force shots, not be patient.
Their pressure system went away completely. They tried to win on individual skill and battle effort and they were outworked and outskilled. New coaching also fell down here.
2nd line is a brand new to you medium mielage used van.
They got heads kicked in as far as top 6 goes.
There is also the tactic adjustments. Like podz isn’t catching teams as offguard quite as much.
Like still insanely one of my all time favourite ozone forecheckers and hustle-fack back on defense to such a degree it surely could shame any linemate away from ever dogging it when on with him…like his commitment and hustle will just guarantee any line he is on likely has improved GA. I can’t recall a guy clearly with the tank of gas that guy seems to be running on…like who has just but will skated harder anyone can recall as far as oilers teams….moreau maybe??
But that 2nd line as is was parts greater than sum.
Hello everyone!
I joined a photography contest as a joke and have done much better than I thought was possible.
It is all started based on silly pictures of my dog Django (RIP) that passed away a few years ago. The main picture is him being oblivious to a big cat floof on his nose but there’s other pictures of him and other things as well.
If anyone is willing to vote (completely free daily vote and takes about 10 seconds) I’d greatly appreciate it.
Some how I have made it to the 3rd round and I am in 3rd place. I have almost no social media presence so I am just trying to find ways to build a little bit of support. If you know anyone willing to follow and support as well, I’d greatly appreciate it. Here is the link:
https://photography.maxim.com/t/Q6UWDVGQ
Come here daily and love the community. Thanks for allowing me to post Lowetide!
I’m not going to over react to yesterday’s game. The team lacked some intensity, not to mention defensive details. They obviously missed Ekholm and it threw the structured pairings into disarray. I can’t understand the coaching staffs decision to assemble the fourth line as they did. It seemed to me that their intention was to lose and get back to the drawing board with some teachable moments. In other words, get their heads out of their you know what’s and get back to business. So what if they beat the Stanley cup champs, there’s still lots of work to do. They can still lose to the Maple Leafs if they’re not careful.
They aren’t uber mean 200ft dangerous d daddy missing deep enough yet!
Mike Babcock has a ‘how am I going to find an offensive driver for the second line if it isn’t Leon’ problem.
Interesting. Has Mike Babcock been instructed to appease McDavid’s preferred deployment or prioritize winning hockey games?
No disrespect but I think it’s a little early for conspiracy theories on McDavid being the GM.
However, to support your post, I believe the entire team, and specifically the top line players were sick of the blender the last coach deployed game after game, and shift after shift. Players need chemistry. We know we have the nuclear option as always.
As Simpson said last night ‘McDavid and Draisaitl can find each other in their sleep”, but he also credited TML 4th line for the chemistry they’ve found. So yeah, chemistry.
It would be hard while in the trenches to ignore “greatest start in forever level production” option and be altering around avoiding messing with that.
But their personal accolade trophy cases aren’t what this was supposed to be about and they may be at risk of forgetting it.
When the playoffs start and one of those 2 guys needs to be rested or reduced usage minutes, due to injuries, if the coaching staff can find enough confidence in depth that might be an option -> is where this team is at.
The coach is new but the plot hole barriers to winning are clear
->;structure 5v5 with defensive commitment
-> strength of non nuclear or PP godliness reliance established in season what position in div or conference they qualify at is less important than knowing clear about options prior to deadline for once.
Personally i am starting to be mildly alarmed that PP1 seems like it’s starting to lose plot on “if near a minute and you haven’t converted rhe math is beyond proven we are way better off line changing at next optimal opprtunity.
We aren’t out of playoffs by american thanksgiving likely. Awesome make this a 4 line team one for all all for one with heroes in the making of unsung variety possible over
“Why didn’t mcdavid win junior championship exactly?”
Because they didn’t let the team around him be fully part of the success like all parts equally important to their dying breaths.
Win as a team is the mission. Make this a team all parts as important.
IMO i personally don’t want Mcdavid on pk.
There is need to develop ownership of roles and minutes consistent pride built in them. Those solutions in season that are better off developing who might have to sell off teeth diving with their face in front of pucks come do or die game 6’s or 7’s.
Terrible game by the entire team, first line included. I don’t think they need to over react though. These will happen over the course of a season. Regroup, bring Howard and Frederic back in for Jones and Hallander, Forementon, or Joseph. Get some energy and structure back in the bottom six. Jarry is a wild card, but I’d actually only fault him on goals three and seven. Play soundly in front of him and you’ll have a chance. Beat Detroit and Calgary to go 4 – 1 on the home stand and 10-2-1 overall then we’ll hardly remember last night’s debacle
Hey Lowetide
Is there a part of the expected goals calculation that is impacted by zone start?
Why I ask is because the 3rd like had 3% last night but their zone starts were
Michaels- 12.5%
Joseph- 12.5%
Formenton- 14.3%
So in theory, they should have a lower expected goal percentage, (3% is a little extreme obviously). If your starting position is the best starting position
for the opponent, you’d assume that they will have more shots on goal while the 3rd line is on the ice.
I pay attention to analytics but I know you’ve dug way deeper than me and are on sites I’m not on. Just curious if you’ve seen anything that would have that brought into the conversation or maybe it’s an analytic of some sort of defensive number when you’re in the Boyd Gordon level of zone starts.
This comes up from time to time, my understanding is no, they do not factor in. That said, analytics constantly evolves, and we know NHL teams have their own measures and intellectual property. Terrible answer, but I believe it is correct.
Got to go to the game. It was quite horrifying .
I mean you are not going to win all your games, but the entire effort was brutal.
This team will realize sooner or later that they do need a legite 2nd line that can add some goals. They will need to get a legite 2nd line C man that drives a line or break up McDrai and get a scoring winger for the top 6.
Jarry had a rough night but the D was bad.
Pretty sure Jarry gets the net again against Detroit and I would expect Babcock has this team playing way better in that game. I would luv to see him put Howard back in and on the wing with Nuge and Hyman.
It will be interesting to see if they can sweep Detroit and the Flames this week and get back on track.
At least put Freddy back in LOL.
So we have a $5 mil goalie who can’t handle pressure and seems only able to play on the road. Not one of Stan’s finer moments….
Jarry is brutal. Frederic too. Walman is trending in the wrong direction.
But Stan has done some good work too.
Podz, Kapanen, Joseph, Michaels, Shea and Levi.
Jury is out on Murphy and Dickinson, along with Howard and Formenton.
He got rid of one of the most untradeable contracts in the league without having to take back a bad contract or give up a sweetener.
Bowman seems to be way more active than Holland, so I’m going to reserve judgement until we see how he tweaks the roster this season.
Don’t burn the witch too prematurely please.
He seems like he isn’t in best mental place exactly and surely a bit more on the emotionally sensitive impacts performance.
I mean babcock starts season feeding him away games to shield him from looney bin blood in water shark chum risk from home crowd.
He wasn’t the reason they lost overly singular.
He didn’t help them win but they literally were behind all game and the underlying stats suggest they clearly didn’t dominate quality scoring chances.
Take more than goslie average or slightly better to take that game 5-7 times out of 10.
Next.
Get back Babco!
Before Mo town arrives…
Prospectotomy!
A twain of NAmateurs toil this day.
Lewandowski has points in eight of his nine GP so far, with 4-10-14.
At the other end of the rink, goalie Ryan Cameron’s yo-yo season continues, having allowed 5, 1 and 4 GA his last three games.
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 4 p.m.
Sioux Falls (Cameron) @ 4 p.m.
Both times are the same time and are also Cavendish time.
McDavid and Hyman are such a formidable duo I don’t understand any coach that doesn’t play them together. It has literally worked every year since one forever.
To a lesser extent same with Podz and Draisaitl.
It doesn’t even matter who the other wingers are.
This isn’t that hard. Smartest men in the room just make it that hard.
We used to throw SMITR syndrome around all the time during the Lowe/MacT days.
I’m glad it was jam night with my friends last night, else I might be ordering a new remote control. Looking at nat stat trick this morning was bad enough.
I PVR every game, that way I can skip commercials and I don’t have to sit through the rough patches and intermission.
Life is too short to be subjected to misery, plus I can watch games on my own terms when it comes to time and time management. I do not let sporting events dictate how I schedule my life.
This has served me very well through the decade of darkness (when I decided this was the best way to watch games for my own sanity) and continues to do so today.
Also, I have not destroyed a single remote or television in my lifetime 😀 .
I don’t like watching podz get type casted into role he seemingly compliments that line best. Deferring to the duo over like potting onetimers from drai office and some possession puck carrying driven offense. Like he has more upside still to upper ceiling.
Like he had me thinking he might clearly be the rarest unicorn level quality winger that can carry a top 6 unit.
There was something different building with drai before injuries messed with season.
And like kapanen just seems to be exactly the guy teams hoped on draft day when plsying with them…in a way i hope it’s not too smartest men in room avoided like what sustain does that have?
That adds a lot if ways the other pieves might fit best options value.
Like i get it. Do what it takes to survive top 9 infirmary trauma ward edition….
But man alive mchyvid is quality juice box to squeeze worth drinking as replacement for a mcdraiberry especially if podraipenen is half as good as initially seems.
I still hope to see dach and hyman on mcdavid wings. He can fill the more limited scope required reasonably close to podz and long as he keeps 200ft committed legs moving.
A Leafs-Oilers game on Saturday is a spectacle. The recipe for the spectacle last night included Sportsnet (a Rogers vehicle) using the Leafs’ (a Roger’s vehicle) play-by-play guy and colour commentator (their “national” team) who made sure to give viewers updates on the totals of the Leafs’ 50-50 draw. I tried to get a ticket but out of jurisdiction purchases are prohibited. 🙁 Fortunately, the advertisements during the telecast were helpful for finding sites to place needed bets during breaks in play.
In all honesty, I thought the Oilers were on the road until my 88 year old father called and raged about starting an Oiler home game 2 to 3 hours earlier than they would normally start. “It’s a @#$%& disadvantage that everyone involved in high performance sport knows!” The call might have been the most entertaining part of the game.
It was annoying, but it was better than listening to Jack Michaels talk about everything but what was happening on the ice on CHED. I satisfied both sides of my brain when I watched the game with no PBP in the 3rd.
I think it’s pretty tough to tweak when the fact is that we likely have 5-6 AHL quality players on the current roster on any given day and they’re getting fed. Checking Drai down is kinda like using duct tape to hold back a dam. I understand the logic, but it’s sort of like we’re playing defense against ourselves because we don’t trust the bottom 6.
I think it’s time to make some hockey trades. get dach out and bring in a real center. get rid of Mukhammadullin because we’re attracted to size when we should be attracted to skill. Max Jones, Joseph, michaels are all ahl players. roster decisions are starting to remind me of pat quinn.
Babcock is already showing his stubborn ways.
I agree that this roster needs a talent injection. I wonder if Bowman is motivated to add Ivan Miroshnichenko.
Seems the Capitals are motivated to move him, but they don’t need forwards, they appear to be looking for a dman, probably a RHD or a goaltender.
So, a swap for Howard is likely a no go and it is extremely unlikely that Jarry would have any appeal.
I thought Jarry got hung out to dry on goals 1-3, though maybe a save on 3.
I thought the 4th was just bad PKing by the Oilers. McDavid and Michaels were both so so low, the Leafs had acres to sling it around. Nylander can shoot.
I saw the top line cheating for offense a bit the last two-ish games. Deeper than deep
on goal 1, deep and a brutal line change (two games in a row), on 2.
I thought the 2nd line had a quite good, very high tempo game. Kapanen more involved for sure. Goals will come for Hyman. Like to see Nuge in shoot mode but hey it’s his second game.
Agreed on the 3rd line writ large. Times up.
18 months in and I still have no idea who or what Jake Walman is as a player.
Skinner got blamed when he was hung out to dry. Why should Jarry not be blamed? He is being paid twice as much as Skinner was to stop the puck.
Bouchard cheated up ice with no backup on the opening goal against. And made an atrocious line change on the 2nd goal against.
To be fair, it was Walman with the atrocious line change on the second one.
Bad line change.
Seemingly no desire to line match when you have home ice advantage.
Keep 97 & 29 together.
Get Howard to shave those sideburns.
Why is Max Jones still in the league?
Oilers were due for a stinker and couldn’t rely on the PP to bail them out against an historically hot PK but come on where is this great coaching we kept hearing about.
The bottom 6 had a combined 2 shots. 😑
I don’t think they were very well prepared for that game and that’s on the coaching staff.
Jarry (Campbell 2.0) doesn’t belong is this league anymore, what was Bowman thinking when he traded for him? Connor will be planning his exit if the team is relying on him to stop pucks. I said before the game he’ll let in 5-6 goals and that was the easiest prediction of the year.
Babs is falling into the same trap as the coaches before him. Will he adjust? Losing Holloway and Broberg might have a longer lasting impact on this franchise than any of us fans wants to admit.
THIS! Actually angers me to no end. One line that is a real threat to score and 3 lines that are apparently intended to help defend the net (and maybe score a couple). We no longer have the “load ’em up” option when we’re trailing, because the 2 loads are already together (in all game states). Just a terrible plan, such a waste of talent.
It was really strange to hear so many from the organization (Stauffer, Bowman, Babcock) promoting them playing on the same line over the summer when we have years of evidence that it doesn’t work.
They are great together. But Leo and Podz also ran at 62% goals on their own last year which must be one of the top duos in the league. They must be able to find an elite McDavid line without Podz/Drai.
I thought the most interesting thing about last night was that it only took 1 period for Babcock to figure out that Walman is not a 1st pairing dman. And that Bouchard and Walman are not a good pairing. They both need a reliable defensive partner. Together they are defensive chaos.
Now Walman has a first pairing skillset, but he can make some absolutely braindead decisions, and his compete level in the dzone seems to come and go. That signing is not looking good.
In fairness to Walman he looked like he may have been injured early in the game. But to his credit he continued. Bouch usually has more than one partner because of the amount of minutes he plays. And it would make sense that if Walman wasn’t 100% he shouldn’t play in the top pair.
97 and 29 are not going to be split up. If they were, it would have happened when Nuge and Hyman were out. And also everyone wants to see 97 get 200 points.
I was shocked when I saw Jones dressed, even more so when I realized Freddie and Howard were scratched. Maybe this kind of beat down on a big stage will turn out to be a good lesson for the whole organization.
Roster gaps aside I do think there are things here for Babs to glean regarding the hand he actually holds.
Again, this is not about Babcock.
It is all on Bowman.
A team construction that never made sense.
There is no offensive talent beyond Hyman, RNH, Bouchard , McDavid and Draisatl.
That has to change.
Jarry should never play another game for the Oilers. Just never.
Sending down Walman is overdue.
Or just fire Bowman.
Bowman has made some brilliant moves (Pods and Shea) and some really awful ones that are crippling this team long term. I suspect the next few games with Levi and Eks out will be tough to watch. This team is old and fragile with very little depth.
With Levi out 2-3 weeks it’s going to be tough going.
The team will need to tighten up defensively and they will. Ekholm will be back soon and so will Dickinson.
It’s you that have never made much sense.