Lay Me Down In Silence Easy

The Oilers 2026-27 are regressing currently, and there’s not a sports fan alive who doesn’t know the quiet desperation of a reckoning. Why do bad things happen to good people? Well, the truth is, these things are predictable. Please read this.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

• At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
• On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
• At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
• On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1) Actual 3-0-0
• At home to: Mammoth (1-0) Actual 0-1-0
• On the road to: Mammoth (0-0-1) Actual 1-0-0
• At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2) Actual 2-1-1
• On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
• Expected Record: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
• Actual Record: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games

My pre-season prediction for the first 14 games looks like it’ll be close enough for jazz. You never know as a season begins, but the hot start meant the team would meet or exceed quality expectations. We are here.

• Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl: 13:10, 6-3 shots, 1-0 goals, 89X
• Dach-Nuge-Kapanen: 6:46, 4-4 shots, 1-0 goals, 57X
• Formenton-Michaels-Joseph: 6:28, 3-2 shots, 0-1 goals, 7X
• Hyman-Nuge-Kapanen:4:55, 0-5 shots, 0X
• Howard-Dach-Frederic: 4:40, 2-5 shots 2X

The top line scored a goal at five-on-five, Podkolzin scored it and had two HDSC’s (both at five-on-five). McDavid and Draisaitl were quiet at five-on-five, the last four games represent regression from the extreme heater we saw in the first few weeks. Nothing terrible, but McDavid’s five-on-five points-60 in the last four games (1.97), added to Draisaitl (1.89) and Podkolzin (0.96) tells us the scoring is off a little.

Do you remember the night Ryan Nugent-Hopkins played 28:12 in a game? It was his first game of the 2013-14 season and the club was desperate for a win (not unusual in this century). Nuge was brilliant, but then took several games to get back to normal. I think there’s a little fatigue for the Glimmer Twins and that is contributing to the regression.

Don’t tell anyone, but I think the Nuge is back. He is 3, 1-2-3 so far this season. His five-on-five “patented metrics” are shy offense (1.36 points-60 at five-on-five) and impressive expected GA-60 (2.31). Now the team needs to run him with skill, but the Nuge is giving us what he always has over the years. Plus, power-play witch.

I love the Dach goal, he’s like the old Boston Bruins of my youth. He doesn’t have the defensive chops of a Garnet Bailey, but he does things. I mentioned recently that Dach has had an impact in drawing penalties and in high-danger chances, so there’s a player there. I don’t think he’s a center, and the goal he scored on the Nuge line might be his ticket to a week on a skill line. We’ll see. He’s a 1970’s Bruins winger. Pretty Sure. And he has some utility.

Alex Formenton is going to drive me crazy. He is Babcock’s Marleau, I believe. When Marleau played for Babcock in Toronto, he didn’t get much done but remained on a skill line. Marleau was a drag on some pretty brilliant trios, but Babcock kept playing him. Formenton gives away pucks, doesn’t win battles and owns a 38 percent goal share at five-on-five. I do not see him good.

Ike Howard is Mike Babcock’s “Mattingly” and his sideburns annoy the old man. I have first hand knowledge of this kind of thing. Back in the 1960’s and 1970’s old men (like my Dad, who was a good man) decided their authority was being questioned by young men because of long hair. I kid you not. Much of the 1970-75 period of my life was spent listening to my brother plead to my Dad to let him keep his hair long (it was a great haircut, very neat and stylish). My Dad gave the ‘if you want to live under my roof’ speech and my brother cut his hair. Simply ridiculous. My brother loved Dad. He respected him. But old men don’t like what they don’t like and most won’t change. It is a flaw, not a feature. By 1977, I was wearing my hair long and no one said a thing. Old men die on the strangest hills.

Howard is a long hair. Howard has sideburns. Don’t try to figure it out, just don’t be that guy when you turn 50. Seriously. You’re an ass if you make arbitrary rules for others to follow. Anyway, Howard scored last night, it could be the only goal he gets in Edmonton because Babcock doesn’t see him good. Formenton, on the oher hand? No sideburns. MacT used to do this, too. It was the only thing I didn’t like about MacTavish as a coach. Well, that and the power play.

• Mukhamadullin-Bouchard 16:53, 7-4 shots, 1-0 goals, 80X
• Shea-Murphy 16:19, 5-11 shots, 0-1 goals, 14X
• Walman-Emberson 7:25, 2-5 shots, 5X
• Tristan Jarry 26/29 .897 overall, 20 of 21 .952 five-on-five

Tristan Jarry played well, and that’s a big deal because he’s the only healthy goaltender currently from the original group. Mat Tomkins will see the net on the road trip, but a nice recovery game from Jarry.

Shakir Mukhamadullin and Evan Bouchard were the only pairing above water, and Babcock’s excellent bet on Mukhamadullin put the other duos in a good spot. However, the Shea-Murphy combination was not good, and Walman-Emberson were welcome to my nightmare on the evening. The Red Wings aren’t that good, but they’re pesky. I liked that new goalie too.

Edmonton plays the red hot Flames next, and a week that features a loss to Toronto and Calgary will mean grumpy rising in good old our town. Increase Howard’s playing time, fade Formenton. Those are the things we should see. What will we see? Let’s have some faith that Babcock isn’t a stubborn mule, shall we?

On the Lowdown today, our feature guest is Shawn Belle, who was impressive on the game broadcast last night. We’ll also have the three radio horsemen of the apocalypse in Declan Krueger, Donovan Paulson and Josh Fenwick for the round table. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.