The Oilers have have enjoyed some fine seasons by prospects who would go on to have success with other teams. David Vyborny (above excerpt is from On The Clock) had a fine career years after showing great promise with Cape Breton Oilers. Tim Thomas would go on to a wonderful career with the Boston Bruins after making a late 1990’s stop with the Oilers affiliate (Hamilton Bulldogs) in 1998-99.
There are future NHL players who will hit the ice tonight wearing Bakersfield Condors threads. Identifying those players is a tough chore based on the first seven games of the season.
CONDORS NUMBERS
I count Quinn Hutson, Viljami Marjala, William Nicholl, Connor Clattenburg and Josh Samanski as the most promising in this group. I’ll also tell you that Tucker Robertson, age 23, is playing better than any of them at this time. He’s on an AHL deal. RH center. Oilers should sign him.
There are two future NHL defensemen in this group, Damien Carffagna and Tomas Cibulka. They are the best prospects and the best players on the team. Beau Akey is hurt again, he was digging out of a tough start when it happened. Veteran Josh Brown has had a nice start to the season.
Nathan Day, ladies and gentlemen! This is his first look at the AHL and Day has been dynamite so far. The Condors cannot stop opponents when killing penalties. I’m serious.
Bakersfield has scored 20 goals: 12 at even strength, 5 on the power play and 3 shorthanded.
Bakersfield has allowed 20 goals: 8 at even strength, TEN on the penalty kill and two shorthanded goals. The 68 percent PK success is just shameful.
If a prospect can establish himself as an AHL regular at 20, it bodes well for an NHL career, but does not guarantee it.
The Condors have just one player age 20, and he’s a good one. William Nicholl is establishing himself as a regular currently. Nicholl projects as a speedy two-way center who should be able to play middle-six and PK in the NHL if he reaches his outer marker. There is no recall in his immediate future, but Nicholl is developing and could be on the recall radar one year from now.
Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past 21 is having some issues and may spend time meandering.
Damien Carfagna (age 23) and Tomas Cibulka (age 22) are the best Condors, with lack of pro experience and lack of size being the issues for each man. Wonderful mobility, strong pass and carry, good in coverage and Cibulka anticipates extremely well. Both should have NHL careers if they stay healthy and both could handle NHL minutes now.
If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect by age 22, you’re in trouble. The players who will be successful have played at least some games in the NHL during entry deals.
Players in entry deals who have played at least one NHL game include Connor Clattenburg (21), Josh Samanski (24) and Owen Michaels (24). Michaels has yet to play an AHL game, so would have to be considered the most impressive prospect we’ll discuss today (although I rate both defensemen higher). Ike Howard is at 41 games and I’m considering him graduated for this conversation.
No matter what you and I think about a specific AHL player, the largest category of player in the minors is ‘tweener’.
Most AHL players land here. Seth Griffith was one. James Hamblin too. Quinn Hutson is one right now. Absolutely sucks. Now, a player can climb out of this category with some luck or development in specific areas, but it’s most difficult. One would be wise not to bet on anyone who has been in the AHL for more than two seasons without an NHL look.
Dan Cleary, Fernando Pisani, Jason Chimera, Stuart Skinner and Ryan McLeod are the success stories in this study.
Owen Michaels has to be placed here. I believe in Josh Samanski. I am sure about Damien Carfagna and Tomas Cibulka.
On the Lowdown today, Steve Lansky will be my feature guest and we’ll preview the CFL western and eastern semi-finals. The NFL trade deadline will also be discussed and we’ll have the usual Friday jocularity. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Levi and Hyman were skating before Oilers practice in NY. Good to see they are on the trip
i wonder what it would take to secure Shane Wright. For there here and for the longterm he could be a big part of the solutions.
He would rank 3rd on the oilers between podz and drat for individual high danger chances 5v5. Whilst playing just over 11 mins per night 5v5 (this would be 9th on the oilers )
Mcdavid- 17
Podz-17
Wright- 14
Drat- 13
In the here and now.
Podz-Drai-Mcd
Dach-Nuge-Kappy
Howard-Wright-Joseph
Formenton-Dickinson-Frederic
Hallander
When everyone is healthy…
Podz-Drai-Mcdavid.
Dach-Nuge-Savoie
Howard-Wright-Hyman
Kappy-Dicky-Joseph.
frederic
That is NHL depth.
Does a 2nd, and michaels get it done?
Yesterday on 1440 Pagnotta(?) stated the whole league, all teams, was looking to boost offence. Searching not just in NHL, but every league to uncover offensive potential.
With that two thoughts came to mind. First, if the Oilers have made the call on someone like Hutson, then move him now. It will be good for him and best value for Oilers.
Yes, team still needs mentors to bring youth along, and that falls to Griffith and Brown who are now outside that value window.
Second, Oilers are still sitting on Howard, while other teams would be overly excited to get their hands on a young 20 goal scorer and get him going. Lots of value in Howard, to Oilers or someone else so Oil need to keep developing him. .
Third. McDavid will set even more records.
Lowetide, you have spent enough time on the farm with these prospects that you’ve seen the sun beating down on that old tractor, and the red paint turn to orange and rusty brown patches of steel. I’m waving to you just like a friend.
My big concern with the Oilers and their AHL prospects is a lack of opportunity. It’s a worrisome trend that most prospects don’t get an opportunity, and if they do, it is usually quite limited. Management will typically backfill with vets right before pre-season and throughout the year if there is major injury trouble i.e. Hallander, Rempe rumours etc.
Sorry if it is pessimistic but what would it take for these players to get a realistic shot to show their stuff in show? Here is how I would bucket them:
Could likely get a call up: Samanski (but is currently about 16th on depth chart if everyone is healthy and not necessarily the 5th C)
Should but unlikely: Carfagna, Marjala, Hutson
Would be nice to see them this year but no realistic chance: Cibulka, Leppanen
Annoying call up I could see being next: Raty (who projects to be another fast but limited player)
We’ll see what happens with Fischer but I wouldn’t blame him for not signing here, seeing how we deploy prospects, especially at the start of this year with all of our injuries.
Hello everyone!
I joined a photography contest as a joke and have done much better than I thought was possible.
It is all started based on silly pictures of my dog Django (RIP) that passed away a few years ago. The main picture is him being oblivious to a big cat floof on his nose but there’s other pictures of him and other things as well.
If anyone is willing to vote (completely free daily vote and takes about 10 seconds) I’d greatly appreciate it.
Some how I have made it to the 4th round and I am in 2nd place. I have almost no social media presence so I am just trying to find ways to build a little bit of support. If you know anyone willing to follow and support as well, I’d greatly appreciate it. Here is the link:
https://photography.maxim.com/t/Q6UWDVGQ
Come here daily and love the community. Thanks for allowing me to post Lowetide!
Prospecth!
Half of the dozen NAmateurs shall hockey today.
The Oilers’ only First Nations prospect is also the only NAmateur leading his team in scoring. That would be Dalyn Wakely, owner of 6-1-6-7 boxcars on a team that’s only scored 14 goals so far.
Fischer’s Notre Dame squad has even more of a popgun offense with just 12 goals in 6 GP. And yet Fischer has 1-3-4 which is 3rd on the team.
After Lafreniere picked up three apples yesternight, he is now tied for 3rd (with four others, mind) among NCAA freshmen with 7 points (2 + 5) in 6 GP. His (and Sharp’s) Broncos –the 2nd highest scoring team in Div-1 — hung double digits last night. Can they do so again tonight?
The lone skater yet to find the scoresheet is Bauer Berry, though his value comes much more from his own end. His time is split between 1/2LD.
Ryan Cameron sports a 3.40 GAA and 88.0 SV%, both worst among the three goalies on the team (though he has played as much as the other two combined). With Sioux Falls playing tonight and then a matinee tomorrow, one suspects he’ll play only one of those games.
St. Thomas (Berry) @ 5 p.m.
Western Michigan (Lafreniere, Sharp) @ 5 p.m.
UMass-Lowelll (Wakely) @ 5:30 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 6 p.m.
Sioux Falls (Cameron) @ 6 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Vulcan time.
Love the Vulcan choice today Tarkus, great job as always. Tough one yesterday losing Capt. Picard.
I hope the Oilers are fully Engaged this weekend in his honour.
Tarkus,
Thanks for taking the time to update us on these things!
Might be interesting to add a running total of the prospects you follow at the full stats for the season just on the bottom that you can copy and paste!
Periodically updated season stats are most certainly doable.
I had thought of just doing updates — with no preview posts every game day — every Sun/Mon like a weekly summary. Of course, that greatly reduces the number of small-town shoutouts.
Since Mondays are by far the quietest day, perhaps a weekly summing can be done in addition to game day previews if there’s a call for it.
Hey Tarkus I’m a couple of days late but I too would like to say thanks and agree you are an MVP here. If you would ever use Glendale, AZ time as your reference just for me that would be great 🙂 🙂
May you live long and prosper, Tarkus.
Thankyou.
Just wondering, what happened to the Finnish goalie? Is he playing anywhere.
Eemi Vinni is in Fort Wayne with the Komets. He has played in one game, allowed six goals and has an .818 save percentage.
Eemil Vinni is in Fort Wayne, he did not play well in his first and only appearance.
Both Day and Jonsson are currently in Bakersfield, with Tompkins in Edmonton and Ungar injured.
The other goaltenders currently with Vinni in Fort Wayne are an unimpressive ECHL vet (Evan Cormier) and an older guy (Luke Richardson, not the retired NHL Dman) whose resume reads like a EBUG.
Fort Wayne appears to be in big trouble at the moment. Jonsson was the only Euro on the roster, so this could be a very difficult initial North American experience for the very young Finnish goaltender (he turns 21 on 18 December)..