The Edmonton Oilers head to camp with a roster gap. Trades to acquire Matt Savoie and Ike Howard camouflage the truth: this franchise is heading for a rebuild. A Stanley Cup or two will ease the pain, but I can’t honestly see a way to avoid a down period during the (dirty) 2030’s. Please read this.
- Age 20-23: Matt Savoie, Colton Dach, Ike Howard
- Age 24-27: Vasily Podkolzin, Evan Bouchard, Shakir Mukhamadullin Ty Emberson, Devon Levi
- Age 28-31: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Jason Dickinson, Trent Frederic, Kasperi Kapanen, Mathieu Joseph, Jake Walman, Ryan Shea, Tristan Jarry
- Age 32+: Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mattias Janmark, Connor Murphy, Mattias Ekholm, Frederik Andersen
The Oilers have 30 percent of the roster under 27, meaning the boat is nearing the falls and help is not on the way. I’m not concerned about Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, but the worry is warranted as Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Mattias Ekholm age. Hyman is a unique player, the Oilers don’t have a guy ready to replace him. Same for Nuge. Same for Ekholm.
The top forward prospect behind Howard is Josh Samanski. He is an impressive checking center and that has value, but it’s unlikely he plays a key role on this team over the next five seasons. Damien Carfagna is the top defender and we don’t really know if the organization values him (they should). Top goalie prospect is Samuel Jonsson and I do think he has a chance to emerge as an NHL starter.
I do not have a solution to the problem. I would sound the alarm but I’ve been doing it for two years now. The only thing i can think of is an offer sheet, and that opportunity may have been blown out of the water due to the activity this summer. If there’s a GM out there who still doesn’t see the need to cover his ass re: offer sheets, he’s going to lose his job soon.
If the other sheet option dries up, Edmonton is cooked. You can’t get lucky enough to replace Hyman, Nuge and Ekholm with depth picks and deft trades, and you can’t go fast enough to get there early.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guest will be Jason Gregor and we’ll talk ELks, World Cup, Oilers, Jays and more. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Five Mike Babcock questions as he prepares to coach the Edmonton Oilers
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7455990/2026/07/20/edmonton-oilers-mike-babcock-questions/
I’m enjoying this series. Thanks!
Bleed Oil Blue
@BleedOilBlue
Former Oilers assistant coach Dave Manson has been named head coach of the San Diego Gulls, the Anaheim Ducks AHL affiliate.
Also former Oilers Captain Kelly Buchberger will serve as assistant coach.
I’m guessing Manson may know some keys to beating the Oilers.
He’s several years removed now, Im guessing that’s not any of the key reasons he was hired.
He was with the Oilers until last 2023.
Pretty sure he will have some insight into the defensive tendencies of many Oilre players.
And no one is claiming that was a key reason.
So Ekholm and Bouchard? Who else from 2023 is still in the top 6?
Mercy, it’s not even hard anymore. You’ve dropped off harder than the Oilers core was supposed to.
The court jester delivers, yet again.
Yes, Manson will provide the much needed “Intel”
This is a new level of delusion for you, and that’s saying a lot.
LOL, Dave Manson.
So Ducks hiring Mason to coach their AHL affiliate is being touted as a problem for the Oilers.
Good Grief.
Is there any tree more fruitful than the Sather tree. Either you were all in or you hated the Oilers so much. The daily discussion was always about the best team ever. The Sun and the Journal always had half-dozen interesting perspectives. There was very few times when the Oilers weren’t the number one talk in town in the Eighties.
Lets go back in time to Heavy metal Sunday where Triumph kicked ass along with the Oilers where they scored at will Pat Hughes a 3rd liner scored 27 goals. Dave Hunter our shutdown comparable to Steve Casper-Bob Gainey scored 22 goals Coffey scored 40. I do hope Babcock turns the horses loose let’s win 6-3 not 2-1 in OT. Bouchard 25 plus there’s no more Nurse eating minutes where nothing happens. I see our D as collective unit will combine for more goals then we’ve seen in the last 15 years. Booook It……..
It’s not too late there’s still multiple cups on the table. Bowman finally pulled the pin on the below average goaltending. Now that we have the goaltending covered we are just a Tom Wilson away from the Cup. It’s going to cost the Iceman. Bowman is surrendering the core with big skilled wingers. We need a wild card someone that can be play top 6-9 that has an edge. Could we already have this player in house it’s too bad he’s only 21.
Other than the obvious Clatt who would you like the oilers to target as the Tom Wilson type player.
If Howard and say a first were on the table that should be able to bring in a significant piece. Also important to keep in mind Howard’s low cap hit has value. I think he could be a 20 goal 30 assist guy playing mostly top 6.
Evander was ideal but not now.
Im hoping one of Fred or dach can be a push back player as needed. And perhaps even Clatt later in the year.
You already book Howard being moved out in a Nurse trade.
Patrick Kane is a UFA, legend has it he beat up John Scott and a cabbie. He can still play top 9 minutes. Is he Tom Wilson enough for you? 😀
I think the reality of the situation is that we are as win now as Sather’s Rangers or Pat Quinn’s Maple Leafs. The Oilers will either take the hill in the next couple years, raise the cup and raise banners or be a footnote like the Buffalo Bills for having come close to glory but inexplicably falling short on multiple occasions. As an Oilers fan I do not relish the prospect of another rebuild. I have a decade of regrets from foolish management decisions from the last one, but I should dearly like to see an Oilers Stanley Cup win that isn’t clouded with the haze of dim childhood recollection. The chances of us getting the best player in the world a third time seems admittedly rather slim so I can hardly blame the team for pushing it’s chips into the middle of the table and going for it.
Hyman used to retrieve the puck more. Forecheck more, cycle more. Recently I think we see much more “just go to the net” from Hyman. I mean it works right.
The down side is that it has become predictable, and teams can stop Connor. I do not mean to pick specifically on Zack Hyman, but as an example, when Connor does everything, there is less that needs doing, from puck retrieval to backchecking.
I think this should be part of the change this upcoming year. Giving everybody defined roles also applies to top 6. More roles, more help for Connor. He might have to let up on the gas a little to use his wingers.
Zach Hyman is a lock on right wing. But do more of what got you there.
Savoie should be able to transport the puck as well once everyone is drawn to Connor. Savoie fast and smart, play that way. Connor needs these players to play stronger roles so he can dish the puck then get it back. And he needs to shoot. He can be the shooter, he just needs space.
Draisaitl is also the shooter. He needs retrievers. This is why Podkolzin works so well, he is the new Hyman. If Leon ends up the transporter and possession demon (he will) then he needs the sniper. Can Howard do it?
The 2030’s , who cares?
I do.
Thanks for the laugh
90s troubles and even DoD Oilers have provided fans some of the greats.
Weight, Cujo, Smyth, Hemsky, Horcoff, Marchant, Pisani, Roloson and a ton of personal picks.
Fandom requires the ability to appreciate the sport and the team, no matter the ups and lows.
Seems you’re lacking that trait.
??
Savoie seems like a on the money “nuge” replacement.
Podkolzin has room to grow into a better all around winger than hyman and i imagine his netfront dirty goals will increase if that is role he is given on a specific line. -> but main thing hustle hard forechecks and better defensive minded “hyman”.
Ekholm at 4 million until this ends and walmanshea is decent aged LHD line-up may need sone tweak but not all that worried about it.
If emberson keeps improving ideally he steps over murphy as the more defensice RHD man on 2nd pair possibly.
Our center depth i’d say is the one place most pressing not really any solutions top 9 younger end outside maybe samanski.
I recall Hyman being a very good two way winger when he first came to the oilers. He became more one way as the oilers systems got more …stretching….
I feel similar with Nuge as the oilers became more of a cheat for offense team he became somewhat indifferent defensively.
Im thinking both Nuge and Hyman will get back to being two way players and will both fit ideally down the lineup as Podz and Savoie move/ stay up. Could dach or another surprise to the good side too? Hopefully.
Hyman was awful defensively when he came to the Oilers. He actually improved for a few years but has regressed in that area.
I must have remembered wrong.
He seems to be gone from the d zone so early that he’s rarely a factor defensively and lingers low in the ozone so often. Definitely not lack of effort with him. I remembered him being much more involved in the d zone.
I do think he has the tools to be very effective 200 ft player although at the cost of points.
Seeing as no team has really figured out winning with older superstars, I think stan should try something different. Sit down with Hyman and Mcdavid on july 1 sign them to 7 year contracts. Get word from both that they will honor contract, and don’t file them with league. Trade both at 2028 deadline at half retained for an absolute haul. Have both come back on July 1. Team should be good enough and have the assets to contend for 7 more years.
I picked the wrong day to quit sniffing glue.
The rising up of the offer sheets is actually a massive hidden gift to the Oilers. Rebuilding through the draft and young players becomes infinitely harder now that they are no longer cheaper than their provided value and are getting paid bigger value for shorter contracts.
This trend will provide a lot of parity to the older teams with lesser prospects who can trade for some of this talent now.
The salary cap went up ~10% this season, but cap space for the average team went up much more than 10%. Teams are using this cap space to overpay the Leo Carlsson’s who will be hard pressed to live up to their contract. These overpayments will likely lead to exploitable inefficiencies elsewhere in a salary cap world.
They won’t be overpays at all.
As the cap keeps spiking, so will the contracts of top players.
For example, it is highly likely that Anaheim gets more value from 21 year old Carlsson than a team carrying a lesser cap hit as he enters his 30’s.
The market is re-setting to pay players entering their prime rather than players exiting theirs.
Nah.
The teams drafting highs can get elite talent on 3 year ELCs,
During those 3 years, the older teams het 3 years older.
I had a point about teams having a random down year then going back to brilliance but the only examples I can think of is Florida which should be good but technically tbd and Anaheim who got Lindholm.
Nice player for years sure but not ‘let’s plan the parade’.
With Spain and Carolina winning after years of building process, being a true team can conquer the flash (Oil, French).
Here’s hoping Babs can instill ‘the process’ in 97 like they did Lamal. Brilliance within structure.
Does TBY getting swept by CBJ in round one after winning the President’s trophy count?
I meant it more as an injection of youth potentially ala Toronto this year. Tampa ended up with Nolan Foote after that and still drafted late so not exactly what i was getting at.
The point wasn’t strong, so I flipped to process teams.
2010-2012 the Blackhawks took a two year break from winning the Stanley Cup to lose in the quarter finals.
Big guns off their ELC had to retool. And they still made the dance. Didn’t bottom out for a quick high pick. Oil could’ve done it with Bouch and then back to playoffs for example. They kept stinking so doesn’t count.
Like i said the example didn’t really work.
re “I can’t honestly see a way to avoid a down period during the (dirty) 2030’s”
To my eye the re-tool started last year. The number of new faces in the lineup, the number of rookies we saw during the year, GMSB was starting a process that needed starting after the 2024 SCF. That Holland team was almost a Cup winner, but it was old, and by all accounts here Holland hadn’t done enough to have a pipeline to refresh the talent. GMSB moved fairly quickly to address that, with a number of free agent (college, Euro) signings in spring of 2025. It wasn’t enough for SCF 2025.
As a kid, I was spoiled by what Sam Pollock did for the 1970s Habs. What he did isn’t possible now. Many here are Sather fans. But no matter how good he was, he couldn’t build a dynasty past the team that won in 1990. Some here question GMDB’s record in Chicago, giving Tallon the credit. I can’t speak to that, except to note that his Blackhawks won three Cups over a stretch that reached past Tallon’s immediate legacy. My questions:
-Is GMSB able to build beyond Holland’s accomplishment (the 2025 SCF included)?
-Is he able to build beyond McD, whatever that might be (two years, a re-signing, or…)?
-Is it possible to learn anything from the work Gorton and Hughes have been doing with the current Habs? (I’m hoping there is, and that GMSB’s seeming focus on acquiring young, fast, skill is the way.)
This may be saying the obvious to most of you here. Forgive me. But it’s something I’ve been wondering ever since the start of last season. It’s why I was not upset with a mediocre season: I believed the re-tool was in process.
Holland handed Jackson and Bowman a young Stanley Cup contending core. In two months in July and August 2024, they blew it up.
Blaming Bowman for the cascading failures of Holland is beneath you.
Holland’s roster construction ruined the relationship with Broberg, and his lack of contract negotiation acumen left Broberg exposed to an offer sheet. This is public record.
McLeod is still not a playoff performer; Savoie is younger and has more moxie.
I struggle to comprehend what you’re so salty about; Bowman is making the team younger than the rote signings based off Guide and Record book entires we saw with Holland.
Last I looked, Old Dutch is has the LAK pushing daisies. That team resembles a nursing home more than a contending hockey team. And they already have next to nothing for prospect depth.
Bowman, for all his mistakes, hasn’t signed an albatross like the recently retired Campbell.
Holland signed Nurse to his deal leading to the bridge of Bouchard.
Holland left Jackson soon needing to give Bouchard a $6MM raise an Drai a $6MM raise with Jack Campbell deal cap hits and Nurse at $9.25MM and two prior 1st round draft picks on expired contracts after he had blocked their NHL lineup spots (in particular Broberg).
Nobody is claiming that Holland was a good GM. He was at best mediocre. But until proven or demonstrated to otherwise, he was better than Chiarelli and Bowman.
The roster has been getting worse since July 1, 2024.
Your continue posts on this simply don’t provide the cap crunch context that Holland left the team in – big dead cap hits due to bad signing (Campbell), the Nurse negative value deal and, as mentioned, the two massive cap commitments coming, in one case, because Holland couldn’t go long on Bouch and had to bridge him.
There was no cap crunch. Jackson and Bowman were able to sign Henrique, Brown, Skinner, and Arvidsson. And Perry and Janmark to above league minimums.
There was around $15 million dollar (out of what $90 million) of discretionary cap space.
Even if you blame Holland fully for the offer sheets, Bowman still walked into a great situation. Broberg and Holloway still had a ton of value as RFAs that had just shown they could play in the cup finals. Just do anything other than letting them walk for picks and you have two great young assets. Holloway wanted to be here, he wasn’t bitter about being blocked.
Im not sure how you fault Holland for Drai snd Bouch needing new contracts. They all expire. We had a ton of cap space opening up when they did expire in ‘25 summer. We even had enough to give Frederic and Mangiapane a combined 8M
I don’t fault Holland for those two needing contracts (well, kind of in Bouchard’s case as there was an opportunity to go long term out of his ELC and not bridge him) but the massive cap increases that were needed is a fact. Holland had those two on value deals (Drai signed before him and Bouchard because he didn’t get him signed for value for term).
I believe its important context when talking about the state of the team Holland left Bowman with.
Jackson and Bowman letting Broberg and Holloway walk from a talent pipeline perspective was a horrible decision. Bowman has been trying to claw some young talent back ever since.
And none come close to the talent pissed away in Broberg and Holloway.
Yes, horrible from the second he let them walk.
Apologists are grasping at straws.
Said it before they signed Skinner and Arvidson that they were in danger of being old and slow in a hurry. Then they spent the summer speeding up the process.
Yup, just horrible since they let them walk including a Stanley Cup finals appearance and a solid re-tool after a re-set year in which they made the playoffs (Panthers missed in their re-set year.
So old they are – oldest teams: LAK, FLA, COL, TOR, VGK.
Oilers not even in the top 10 for older.
The appetite here to gnaw on the 2024 offer sheets is truly impressive.
But I’m not interested in the sins of the past. At the very least, I’m interested in (and all say it again, because I am interested) your thoughts on: Is it possible to learn anything from the work Gorton and Hughes have been doing with the current Habs, and apply it to the Oilers?
Every Oilers GM since 2015 has “opposite Georged” Gorton and Hughes.
And, since Gorton was hired, the Habs have won 2 playoff series and the Oilers 9.
I think our host points it out regularly, the Oilers have to inject youth. Marble it through the roster.
Godot has been hammering away for years that the biggest roster construction flaw in good ol’ our town is the donut hole in the middle of the age range (the 24-26 ages?? If I’m remembering correctly? Please correct me if I’m wrong). Since MacT challenged Jeff Petry and sent him away for pennies on the dollar but didn’t find a replacement, we’ve seen the team develop talent to near peak and send them away for table scraps.
Hard to build a continual contender if you don’t have a youth movement to surround your core as they age. Need the affordable talent in a cap system, just as much as you need the vim and vigour of youth.
25 to 29.
The Oilers finally had a nice group just about to enter that range. Skinner, Bouchard, Broberg, Desharnais, Holloway, McLeod to support to McDavid and Draisaitl nearing 30, and the early 30 somethings.
Now it is just Bouchard and Podkolzin, and McDavid and Draisaitl have joined the 30 somethings (a few more months for McDavid).
Jack Campbell retires.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/jack-campbell-announces-retirement-nhl-hockey-news-toronto-maple-leafs-edmonton-oilers-goaltender
A shame how it all went with him. Such potential. Hope he finds his peace and success.
Also – a great example of why if I was running a team, deep due diligence on every player that management/scouts are looking at would be an absolute must.
So does his contract stay on the books because he was bought out?
His buyout penalty remains on the books, yes.
Once McDavid wants out the rest will follow, Hyman, Draisaitl, Bouchard, Walman.
The right GM can break a roster down and rebuild it.
The only player I can see staying through it all is RNH.
Poor Nuge, I would hate to see him suffer through another tear-down. As an aside, he needs only 7 more games to claim the title of “longest-serving Oiler of all time” from Kevin Lowe.
#babynugeftw
When the age wall hits, one rebuilds by trading McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard. Jeff Jackson and Stan Bowman sealed this eventual fate in July and August of 2024.
McDavid’s decision points are each of the next two summers. Bouchard’s decision point is two summers from now. If they both decide to leave, Draisaitl will probably be amenable to a move.
I do not trade McDavid. I fully run out the two years regardless. The second shot is worth letting him get to UFA status. One then has Bouchard and Draisaitl to trade for an asset haul to do the rebuild.
If McDavid re-signs with the Oilers, then the Oilers probably have four to five years instead of two before the wall absolutely hits.
I sense McDavid, Matthews, Werenski, and their agent Judd Moldaver are planning for a super team in two years. And that all three will not agree to trades or extensions till they all become free agents together in two years. The team the three go to, will be able to offer the Oilers an absolute haul for Draisaitl.
In my nightmares, this team is the Toronto Maple Leafs.
It would be just a little bit hilarious though… just to watch it all go the usual TML way and be a complete gong show.
Assuming such a fanciful event we’re to occur, It seems much more likely that the team would be the Oilers:
a) they would then be augmented by Draisaitl and Bouchard and arguably have 5 of the top 10
b) McDavid seems a lot more loyal to his team than Matthews
c) Werenski would be likely to just follow the other two
If they wanted to form a super team, Edmonton would have a decent chance considering they already have Drai and McD.
Also, unless McD and Co. took huge pay cuts, I don’t see how a super team is viable in the NHL. The NBA’s cap structure and the fact superstars play the entire game allow for super teams. MLB luxury tax system is also very super team friendly. NHL the cap doesn’t work and you need depth. Only possible if stars take huge pay cuts.
Considering Moldaver, Matthews and Werenski are all American, a super team is likely to emerge South’s of the border and likely in. No tax state (and, yes, it matters) .
Are we living in a cap free NHL now where a given market can easily assemble a super team of all the best and highest paid players? I did not know that.
Those three players are already multi millionaires who could work with their common agent and a cooperative team to sign “go for it” contracts.
Sid Crosby has been doing it for many years and, in the right market, a super team could offer the players huge amounts of endorsement deals and other lucrative benefits.
Toronto is the only Canadian market that might work but its media environment is toxic.
New York, Vegas, LA, Anaheim, Florida, Tampa Bay, and Dallas could too.
I’m fairly certain the NHLPA would pushback hard if its superstar players that set the market for everyone else all started teaming up on the same teams to take massive discount contracts. Not to mention the inherent collusion required to make this work.
What you’re hypothesizing here is the NBA”s current trend in this direction, but that’s a league where 3 superstars comprise 60% of the starting lineup. As we’ve seen in Edmonton and many other markets, 3 superstars does not guarantee a Cup in the absence of sufficient depth throughout the lineup.
So essentially what you have here is a fantastical theory with no underpinnings in current realities and no viable path to execution. Solid work.
I mean, yeah it’s theoretically possible I could end up dating Sydney Sweeney and Sabrina Carpenter at the same time. We’re all functioning heterosexuals that exist in the same space/time continuum, so I can’t completely rule it out.
Carlsson, Bedard, and soon Celebrini and Makar and QHughes will reset player salaries. So what McDavid, Matthews, and Werenski do after already being financiallly set for life will not matter to the NHLPA.
The US Olympic team players led by the Tkachuk’s and Hughes’s are already wielding player power.
Those new contracts for the next generation superstars liberate the older stars from any NHLPA obligations. They are free to chase Cups via superteams.
Particularly in a year where the patiently built and exceedingly deep Carolina Hurricanes won the Cup, you would think the fantasy of winning the Cup with a 3 player “super team” would be dying on the vine, but hope springs eternal I guess.
The Triple Crown Line.
The French Connection.
Thornton/Marleau/Pavelski
Not a Cup between them
You are ignoring the obvious.
This “3 player super team” could determine how much is left over to create balance.
Another factor is that lesser players would take discounts to fill out a roster with a significant chance of winning multiple cups.
Sometimes a fantasy is all you need.
https://youtu.be/nTWSXhMKX4I?si=IL1yIE_ahd2QKXWx
Exactly so.
Reading your post is the first time I did the math to realize that the dirty 2030’s are a mere 3 and a half years away. Having just turned 60 in June I really hope I’m retired by then and the Oilers have another Cup.
Nuge and Hyman can take 3rd line duties and at 5 to 6 mill its not that expensive anymore. gotta hope savoie can take over
Savoie has produced offensively at every level after a bit of a settling in period, this includes the AHL and NHL now.
He’s had a short 24 game sample in the top 6 an produced 19 points (with little PP time).
This production as lower levels was driven by Savoie and now he gets to have his offence driven by Connor McDavid.
Its hard to imagine him not producing well going forward.
That’s a 65 point pace for those following along at home. Wouldn’t that be a revelation.
so Savoies gtg; and drai can produce doesnt need a star winger to produce; i cant see this team dropping off or needing a retool? i dont worrying over nuge and hyman falling into a elevator shaft in production; when 5 to 6 millon will be the new 3 mill soon.
They just need to find wingers that can take over even if they move down to the 3rd line. Nuge is probably a marginal top 6 – 5v5 right now. Bowman won’t trade Ike unless there is a compelling reason, they could use a top 6 scorer. As the Duo get older they won’t lose their abilities, they just will need guys that can cash as they are less likely to dominate individually
I query what Hyman’s contract might look like on a re-sign – he’s got two years left.
Wasn’t expecting a world is ending post, Id say there will be significant cap space with talented players from around the league that would love a shot of playing with the best 2 centers in the league.
It will be a retool as long as McDavid resigns.
Agreed, I would say a retool has already happened. Only 6 players are left from pre-Bowman, the best ones
Bowman has retooled without anyone noticing. I’m duper pumped about our more balanced D and goalies that can actually wins games instead of hoping for average at best.
That’s my take. It started last year.
I would suggest that they are looking at more of a re-tool than a rebuild.
Drai is here for many more years and I believe McDavid will be as well – those two will be top of the league, elite players for the next 5-7 years still.
Yes, Nuge and Hyman are going to be aging out but I believe that Howard and Savoie are legit top 6 players – not Howard is not a stylistic replacement for Hyman but he could be a goal scoring comparable and Savoie is actually a good stylistic comparable for Nuge.
I would suggest that Paul Fischer it the organizations top d-prospect. There is no guarantee they can sign him this spring but, if they can, he may not need more than half a season in the AHL.
Akey is still a prospect of note. His goal share was shown in yesterday’s blog, pretty good for a rookie even if he had an up and down season. If he can stay healthy this year, he could put his name back in the conversation by the end of the season.
Lots of good bets that could eventually pop and fill bottom six and middle six rolls. I think William Nicholl can play in this league. Lafreniere scored a ton last year. Asher Barnett is real.
Leon Draisaitl is under contract for 7 more seasons. The window doesn’t appear to be closing until then.
Even as Hyman and Nuge begin to decline, Podz, Savoie, and Howard emerge into the top-6.
Bouchard is still elite and really just entering his prime.
The Oilers will not be drafting high, but taking a page out of Washington’s book they can make trades and sign UFA’s to compliment their trifecta of superstars.
It will be fascinating to see how Draisaitl ages.
I often compare him to Joe Thornton since both are big, heavy centres.
Thornton peaked when he was 26 and scored 125 points and won the Hart Trophy.
Interestingly, Draisaitl’s peak season was age 27 when he hit 128 points.
Thornton of course remained productive but would only eclipse 100 points once more before an extended drop in production.
Good thing Leon has eclipsed 100 points twice since his 128 point season. And had 96 last season in a down year for everybody on the team.
Jumbo Joe is a poor comp for Leon imo. Only exceeded 30 goals twice and never with the Sharks. Draisaitl is the total package, playmaker, sniper, and shutdown C when he puts his mind to the latter. Thornton was an elite playmaker but never an elite goal scorer.
Main difference being that Leon’s a goal-scorer with a one-shot kill.
That lasts.
Draisaitl will be 31 soon and has scored at a 100+ point pace in each of the past 8 seasons. Thornton’s production was already significantly lower at this point in his career. Even at his peak Thornton only scored at a 100-point-pace twice.
Here’s a P/GP comp through the heart of their careers:
JT — age — LD
1.31 — 23 — 1.28
0.95 — 24 — 1.55
DNP — 25 — 1.50
1.54 — 26 — 1.38
1.39 — 27 — 1.60
1.17 — 28 — 1.31
1.05 — 29 — 1.49
1.13 — 30 — 1.49
0.88 — 31 — TBD
Joe never surpassed 1.00 P/GP after 30, but remained an effective point producer right up until his 39-year-old season.
Thornton’s career year came in ‘05-‘06.
In 2015-16, a full decade later, Thornton was a ppg player and led his team to the Cup Finals.
So basically you’re saying Draisaitl can be a championship-caliber Center for the entirety of his contract and I respectfully agree.
Leon Draisaitl has proven that he doesn’t need to be able to move to be an elite producer in the NHL:
See playoff series against Calgary, setting all time points records while barely being able to move from the bad high ankle sprain,
See playoff series against Anaheim, producing while clearly limited with no power in his skating.
Fixed that for accuracy, based on your actual documented commentary.
I’m hoping Mukhamadullin will be growing a beard soon. The teams been in an upward cycle, that will eventually turn into a downward cycle, which should be expected. It would be nice if they could muster up a couple cup victories in the next 5 years before the decline. Teams are already lining up for the huge McDavid trade. The “Dynasty Oil” won a cup after the Gretzky trade just because they wanted to prove they could, and they did.
It’s a journey and all we can do is enjoy it.
The only possible solution, other than extreme draft luck – is to trade one or both of the glimmer twins. You can probably get another 3 years of them and still find a GM willing to trade a quality youth package for either.
To be clear, I do not like this option. My worry about the dirty 30’s is that we have become so used to McDavid magic than anything lesser wont seem like quality entertainment anymore. Imagine a fan base going from McDrai to a team resembling the decade of darkness?
Nothing we haven’t seen before.
It’s a choice between staying good or being sentimental. My position is a team should not retire any player except someone like Connor, and maybe Leon. If you do keep regular players into decline you are choosing a window, choosing to give your fans a decade of meh in the end. Maybe more
Opportunity and making good deals when it’s knocking could change the trajectory. But that means people have to move while they have enough rep to return something good, and to keep looking under every stone for players. Some teams make the hard decisions, but in hockey not nearly as much as in many pro sports
@Bob_Stauffer
Stauffer Top 10 Oiler prospects:
Prospects
(24 and under)
#1. Isaac Howard-LW
#2. Quinn Hutson-RW
#3. Josh Samanski-C
#4. Viljami Marjala-C
#5. Connor Clattenburg-LW
#6. Beau Akey-RD
#7. Samuel Jonsson-G
#8. Zack Sharp-LD
#9. Paul Fischer-LD
#10. William Nicholl-C
How many of these have an NHL future?
My guess would be 5 may see NHL careers in Edmonton, then there’s a couple that might find an NHL career elsewhere and there’s a few that could end up overseas.
Half have as good shot as most prospect pools. Most players don’t establish long quality NHL careers. There are 1600 contracts teams have to give. The Oilers have 22 unsigned drafted players, the Sharks have 24, the Canes have 30
If we take the average of 25, that’s 1600 + 800 = ~2400 players chasing 736 NHL jobs, not too mention the thousands of other players not attached to an NHL team. Prospect pools that are stronger don’t stay that way for long
Tanking teams get a picks at the top over however many drafts, and get the guys who are more likely to make an impact, but they don’t stay prospects for long, they make the team. And with that the team will start heading to the mushy middle and stop getting the more sure thing drafted players. Some teams may go even higher, but it’s not a foregone conclusion
You are right about teams like the Sharks in some respects however assuming they will end up in the “mushy middle” ignores the sheer volume accumulated.
As you say, some are already on the roster so are not “prospects” but Stauffer drew a line at 24 and under so let’s take a look.
On the roster:
Macklin Celebrini 20
Will Smith 21
Igor Chernysov 20
Michael Misa 19
Zach Ostapchuk 23
Sam Dickinson 20
Mattias Havelid 22
Colin Graf 23
Yaroslav Askarov 24
Close:
Eric Pohlkamp 22
Ivar Stenburg 18
Keaton Verhoff 18
Ryan Lin 18
In many ways, the Sharks were at the same place as the Oilers are now with a failed effort to win the cup with an expensive roster of superstars but lacking the ability to build a balanced roster due to cap restraints and a dearth of premium draft assets.
The Sharks effectively built that arsenal following the hiring of Mike Grier in 2022 only 4 seasons ago.
If the Oilers don’t win a cup this upcoming season, do you think they will have the appetite to follow suit?
Connor McDavid’s contract status certainly gives them an opening.
They have the makings of a very good core. Per LT’s Athletic piece, so did the Leafs 10 years ago. Doesn’t mean they will be a championship team. The talent is a big piece but not the only piece
The interesting thing about this comparison is the markets themselves. Most would characterize Edmonton as the more patient and knowledgeable hockey market where a full rebuild would be more tolerated. San Jose on its surface wouldn’t present as a market where a slow methodical build would be tolerated.
However, despite having considerably more draft capital with 4 1OVs among their largesse, the Oilers counter intuitively lost patience to build methodically not long after drafting McDavid. This turn towards urgency was sold as maximizing Connor and Leon in their prime, but in many ways it did the opposite. The Oilers fast tracked a team capable of climbing the mountain but with insufficient depth to summit. You also have to give the competition their due. Florida is a well run organization.
Contrary to what many would expect from San Jose, Grier has been given a lot of time and patience to build it properly. It wasn’t that long ago their rebuild was looking pretty underwhelming until Celebrini exploded. But credit where it’s due, the Shark’s fanbase has been patient with this build and they should reap the benefits now of a team that can compete for the Cup for a solid window now.
Good morning DSF/HH/Andrew/Richard/Frank/Larry
would you be a gem, and draw up a top 10 of every teams prospects?
Let me know when you’re all accomplished and I’ll send you my address and postage for your troubles.
Gracias.
If they were prospects for any other team we know your answer would be “all of them”.
This is very funny, but there’s also an element of him living rent-free in your head to this as well. Given that’s the troll goal. Mission accomplished?
It’s a combination of things:
1) there are poor souls that engage with Fibonacci thinking he is talking hockey in good faith. He is not and he never is. He’s always working an angle to make the Oilers look bad and that’s all he really cares about. So, I take it upon myself to remind people of that by pointing out all of his contradictory, nonsensical and biased takes. I have seen many people over the years waste their time and effort and become fustrated thinking Fib was genuinely trying to have a good faith discussion.
2) I don’t believe he is a troll. Troll’s troll for amusement but he genuinely believes a lot of the stuff he says and when he has been called out for huffing his farts or being wrong, he gets angry and defensive. I admittedly like to get under his skin from time to time and the reason I know he’s not a troll is because I am 99% certain he blocked me after trollhunter was added. A troll wouldn’t block anyone because they would want as much engagement as they could get. The guy just hates the Oilers, has an ego and no shame about his beliefs.
3) some of his posts are so uniquely bad they absolutely live rent free in my head. I have thought about framing a print of Woodguy posting that Draisaitl was projecting to be an elite 1C and Fibonacci replying “No, he isn’t”. Or his daily posts over months talking about how Bouchard is an AHL defenseman, or how he compared Wright, Bedard, Robertson to McDavid at various points, etc. Genuinely some of the most awful opinions to ever come from a person at such a consistent rate. It’s remarkable.
4) I consider myself a casual hockey fan. I follow the Oilers closer than most casual fans I think and I loosely follow other teams but never dig into the numbers to try to find gems or insights to share like a lot of folks on this blog. Partly because I look at data all day and like to be thorough so if I were to put effort into it, I know it would eat up a lot of my time, especially if I were to reply to anyone who replies to my posts. I do have a knack for remembering posters, their posts and their hockey beliefs though (good and bad) but almost everyone else seems to be discussing hockey and the Oilers in good faith so I don’t, except for Fib, so it’s easy for me to poke at him.
5) I am also aware that my posts can annoy others as well, so I try to gauge the reaction to them from others. If LT told me to knock it off or if others consistently told me to leave him alone, I would no problem. But my experience has led me to believe that my Fib posts may amuse others and make them feel less frustrated when trying to engage with him or around him.
Thank you for listening to my Ted talk on finding a niche way to contribute on this Oilers fan hockey blog.
Just let it go. I hope you aren’t developing a twich.
Thanks for the reply. Some great self awareness here on your part.
Internet culture is fascinating. We say things both good (kind) and bad (insulting) under the cover of anonymity that we would likely never say face to face. It’s a glimpse into how social mores function when there no direct repercussions for certain kinds of behaviour.
Is being a troll just being an attention seeker at some point? And if Fib is not a troll as you say, then what’s the motivation for winding up Oiler fans all day?
I genuinely get the sense Fib is trying to make a contribution in his own way but the subtext of Internet culture largely eludes him. So you get a guy dumping his Twitter feed AND being a devil’s advocate for every team other than the Oilers. It presents as someone who actually sees and derives value from this community but is “too cool for school” so he has to maintain this veneer of the troll. At the end of the day, the guy is on here every day, so he can act like Oilers fandom is beneath him but his actions scream otherwise.
Or he may just be a guy that moved away from Edmonton and loves winding up Oiler fans from his perch on the left coast.
The interesting thing about trolls is they aggravate originally with their content but eventually the content becomes irrelevant and for some then, they aggravate just through their presence. This is when they truly live “rent free” in our heads.
My wife put this all in perspective for me one day. I was venting massive frustration over this troll in another setting. She listening patiently and then said, “Why would you ever stress over what some stranger on the internet thinks or says? The second you do, you give them your power.” Wise woman. I’m a lucky man.
“Is being a troll just being an attention seeker at some point? And if Fib is not a troll as you say, then what’s the motivation for winding up Oiler fans all day?”
He said he used to be the biggest Oilers fan in the day and he talked about having a run in with Mark Messier. Not sure what broke his Oilers fandom exactly, but then he pivoted towards consistently being anti-Oilers. He also tried running his own blog but it was unsuccessful so he shut it down. Now he comes here where he knows he has a captive audience.
I’m not sure how long you have been following this site or his antics, but he has been doing this for.. decades now? He also had periods where he would get drunk and lash out at posters. Or he tried doxxing other poster(s). In a lot of other blogs he would have been banned on numerous occasions for this kind of behavior.
Genuinely, just wait and see – if you feel like he is trying to genuinely connect over hockey then you have either not read enough posts from him, or you missed out on reading some of his posts before they were deleted by LT.
To quote Brad Pitt’s Ladybug in Bullet Train, “Hurt people hurt people.”
For what its worth, they certainly do not annoy me – I quite enjoy as a matter of fact.
I saw this and was just about to post it.
I haven’t done my rankings for the Cult of Hockey yet but I will likely go:
Levi
Howard
Samanski
Fischer
Marjala
Jonsson
Lafreniere
Marjala
Hutson
Akey
Nicholl
Clattenburg
Please share your observations on Mr Fischer, what do you see?
If it was anyone but the Oilers, you would say every single one of them.
Howard, Hutson, Samanski, Clattenburg.
Though my Howard ceiling is lower than most. I haven’t seen enough substance yet. And despite allegedly being a better shooter and skater than Hutson, it is Hutson who gets to the spot, makes a creative play, and seems to take high quality shots at the NHL level.
We shall see.