I don’t really trust ‘turnovers-60’ and suspect NHL teams do a far better job in tracking them than the publicly available numbers. That said, I think we can take some things from the measure, and it’s an interesting topic with Mike Babcock’s arrival in the city.
Babcock wants the puck. If he doesn’t have the puck, he needs men to get the puck right bleeding now. Zach Hyman posted over 1.00 takeaway per 60 for his entire career, but has faded over the last two seasons. He went from 1.51 in 2023-24, to 0.61 in 2024-25 and then 0.34 last season.
Hyman didn’t get lazy, he got hurt and he is aging. Among regulars last season, Matt Savoie led with 1.51 turnovers-60, followed by Leon Draisaitl (1.44), Adam Henrique (1.11) and Connor McDavid (1.08). Vasily Podkolzin was 0.79 last year, but 1.19 the previous season and he’s good at the turnover most years.
The king of the hill for the Oilers over the years was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. His turnovers (called takeaways at NST) per 60 in 2025-26 (0.75) were shocking when you consider he was at 2.58 in 2022-23 and 2.38 in 2023-24.
Among the men who didn’t play a full season in 2025-26, Max Jones (1.72) and Josh Samanski (1.49) were the most impressive.
On the Lowdown today, Shawn Belle will be our feature guest and we’ll talk about retrievals, winning battles, and counting on your defensive partner. It’s also roundtable today, so there will be blood. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-prospect-pool-rankings-top-10
The associated article is interesting
I do think that the NHL is becoming more like the NBA, in that the value of the draft pick has diminished in the face of rising salaries for younger stars (with less proven experience in a given role than similarly priced veterans).
The ELC is becoming the only contract of value, and most picks outside the top 10 do not develop during the this period of time to drastically outpace their contract worth – but then you’re very invested when they succeed and it is perceived to be the greatest sin a GM can make if they are not retained. But even at the current pace, the only value of a high pick is the ELC period, and the hope that you are building a relationship with the player that will lead to affordable long-term commitment. If you asked Carlsson, though, he said he was treated well by the org. He gave the team about 100 NHL GP of value, and that is going to be followed by an overpriced contract for at least 5 years. Would you rather overpay for a veteran in free agency and spend your high draft picks on upgrading your team for playoff runs, or overpay for a young gun with a more volatile and unpredictable return on investment?
Great questions!
Jason Robertson signs for 1 year $12 million in Dallas avoiding arbitration.
The deal allows Dallas to let the Seguin and Benn contracts to expire.
feel free to include the important point that it walks him right to unrestricted free agency. Sure, he can re-sign again as of January 1 but right now, he’s a pending UFA after this coming season.
You can bet an extension is already in Nill’s desk drawer,
Ya, OK – because everything seems so amicable and hunky dory.
I think he’s doing them a favour by signing for only 12 MM on a one year. He could’ve easily gotten 14MM+ in arbitration. Leaves them only a million off the cap, they can deal Sam Steel or someone else to get safely under the cap.
Next year Seguin’s contract is done and Robertson will likely get a long term deal in the range of Kaprisov’s contract.
and maybe that deal is with Dallas, or maybe its with another team…..
They’ve been talking for a year.
Nill worked out a trade with Seattle but Robertson wanted to stay put and nixed it.
I would guess a long term extension at $18 million early in the new year,
Exactly – they’ve been talking for a year, there was a trade made by the team and eventually a one year deal – this seem likes its anything but amicable with hand-shake deals for January.
Good Grief.
Golly!
Robertson could have let the arbitration process play out but did not.
Instead he chose to play ball with the Stars as they work through their cap crunch.
With more than $41 million in cap space in 2027/28 and all their core already locked up they can and will make him a very rich man.
That he signed for 12 MM, when he could’ve reasonably asked for more and would certainly have gotten more in arbitration, and that he turned down a 15 MM contract from Seattle, tells me he wants to stay in Dallas. If it says something different to you, that’s fine.
I expect an extension in January for Kaprizov level money,
Pretty sure he will get rewarded for his loyalty.
Dallas will have $41 million in cap space next season.
That’s cute that you think Robertson is re-signing. This has seemingly been a slow, bitter and ugly public divorce
This is a bold move by Nil. He obviously wanted to avoid an unknown arbitration award.
A blast from the past for Reja.
https://x.com/VintageOilers/status/2079260456431337746/video/1
Bucky was a great guy, golfed quite a few times with him. He had an interesting story about getting the second hole in one at the oilers tourney and how Peter Puck stepped up to reward him the same prize at the first guy got.
Turnovers!!!! I love turnovers. Also love ‘danish’.
But hold on LT. With much respect that turnover stat, as pointed out by others, is way way way vague. So vague it is a mirage. Empty calories.
2 years ago the Oil went from a sometimes chaotic man to man D in the D zone to a Zone or slightly modified Zone marking system in their own end. Whammo – fewer turnovers???? Certainly less full-filling and gnashing of teeth among the fans hungry for data and a cup full of stanley.
That’s why he said he didn’t trust the numbers.
Some media news from south of the border.
Today, both the Wild and Hurricanes are launching their own TV networks,
https://www.nhl.com/hurricanes/news/hurricanes-to-launch-own-sports-network
How they haven’t been able to produce a reliable and available turnover/giveaway stat is beyond me. It’s obvious watching the game, and yet…
I don’t think you can reliably pull that out of data. So it would have to be eyeballs, until they get enough AI going that can view play and get it right
Given they can’t figure out how to get an accurate count on body checks, I’m not holding my breath the NHL can figure out how to reliably log turnovers/giveaways.
2RD John Marino signs 8 X $6,75 million extension in Utah.
That seems like a great deal for Utah. He played almost identical minutes to Weegar against tougher competition and played more 5v5. Nice player.
Marino was a good Oilers pick. Was he dealt because he was not going to sign? I always forget.
74-47 goalshare. He was riding the PDO pony, but still.
I think that number remains to be seen as value. It reflects the cap jump, but Marino isn’t that great offensively for a puck mover. He has his best season last at 36 pts, but only 4 goals. 23 G in 443 games. Might be a tad high but they have cap. It’s 8 years and he’s 29
Marino scored 32 points with a goal share of 63%.
Oilers 2RD Connor Murphy, who is 33 scored only 17 points with a goal share of 47.6%.
Pretty sure where the value lies,
Seems like a legit assessment, if you want to compare oranges to Basketballs.
You’re equivocating the vale of a defensive defender to a two-way or more offensive defender as if they’re the same thing. Radko Gudas was always going to bring different elements than Keith Yandle. To reduce their AAV to boxcars ignores the nuance of their contributions to team success.
Not to mention Connor Murphy didn’t join the Oilers until the trade deadline so most of his boxcars/stats are coming from one of the worst teams in the league.
Context matters.
Marino is superb defensively.as his goal share clearly shows.
Murphy…not so much.
Murphy was third among D in the league this year in defensive WAR
Murphy not good defensively? What a statement to put your name beside.
I don’t think you understand what goal share tracks or means. But pop off king!
Once Chiarelli was fired (they had a relationship), he was not going to sign – correct.
He was a ChiaPete pick/project/connection. His brother made an Excel spreadsheet of the RHD depth charts around the league and figured with a new incoming GM his chances of playing in EDM were slim.
What a pick this ended up being by Bon Green in the 6th round.
Based on his preexisting relationship with Chiarelli and the verbal at the time, I believe this was a ChiaPete pick.
That draft was both legendary and infamous.
Utah is going to be a load starting next season.
They have a solid team with some nice pieces yet they lack star power.
Logan Cooley is only 22 and has 69 NHL goals to his credit.
Dylan Guenther is 23 and has 91.
Tij Iginla and Caleb Desnoyers arriving soon.
In the most recent draft they select 6’5″ 228 winger Ethan Belchetz who was above a PPG as a 17 year old with the Windsor Spitfires.
Plenty of talent coming.
They are still the lowly jets who haven’t reached a final since winning the Avco cup in 79 when they arguably had a top 5 line in hockey history Bobby Hull-Anders Hedberg-Ulf Nilsson. They sure could use a Dale Hawerchuk-Keith Tkachuk-Shane Doan line this would get them back in the final.
Hedberg and Nilsson bolted to N.Y. a couple years before the finals and Hull only played 4 games that year. The Jets were a Ruskowski/Preston/Lukowich led group of no-names.
That’s right the “Hot line” was the previous year. Lukowich had 65 for the Jets .Terry Ruskowski for a little guy sure could throw the punches. I do remember Dave Semenko snapping home a shot with little time left to score the last goal in WHA historic history
You have a history of posting proving you have no idea whatsoever of what NHL talent is.
Imo there would be plenty of time to talk about prospects around the league if you for once in your life would approach it honestly.
But you just cant do it.
Keep it up … can’t wait to see how your reverse jinx destroys another NHL franchise.
seen a few conversations about what to do with cap space.. weather it be sign a contact now vs training camp invite or deadline acquisition. i find it interesting if the oilers accrue space they could fit in maybe a bloated contract or 2? with limited assets and the weak 2027 UFa market you might need to take on reclamation like example Petterson
I hope the Oilers would wait to see where the gaps actually are before utilizing the rest of their cap space.
They have bodies for the spots right now.
thats definitely a fair comment anything can shake loose between now and deadline
Mike will fade a player or two this happens with every new coach. Expect a longshot to make the team I know we have Dach -Joseph-Frederic-Jones. If any of these players get injured expect the Clattenburg train to role into town. You nailed Clattenburg perfectly when you said his game translates better for N.H.L over the bush league AHL.
Last we saw Clattenburg, he was in a walking boot at development camp in June.
Before that, the last we saw him was unable to get in to the Condors lineup when ready to come off the IR.
Prior to going on the IR, the last time we saw him was demoted to the 4th line playing behind ECHL call-ups, for weeks.
I hope he has a great camp and start to the season – if he had spent the last half of last year, after re-assignment, working on the areas the org asked him to, this could be in the realm of reasonableness.
I think the plan is and should be to wait for opportunity. This cannot be predicted but Oilers need to have the ability to pounce.
I thought given you need to be under the cap for ythe playoffs you can’t do better than what you have today. It does not accrue like it used to. Or maybe I am misremembering?
There is a playoff cap and its calculated different than the regular season.
The plus – its only the iced 20 players that count (plus dead cap: Buyouts, retained, buried).
The negative – the entire AAV of a player counts and not the accrured/pro-rated portion. If the Oilers have $1MM of cap space at the deadline, they can acquire an apx $4MM player as that player would only be on the roster for apx 25% of the season – however, for the playoffs, the player is not $1MM, he’s $4MM.
Having a ton of “accrued deadline cap space” can allow acquisitions but it could cause issues icing the best roster in the playoffs.
The Oilers could do things like not dress Jarry or Frederic in the playoffs – of course, they may be valued players – for all we know, Jarry is a .912 goalie this season and Frederic has 14 goals……
Jarry hasn’t posted a save % that high in 5 seasons and only twice his entire career.
Bury him and move on.
He was .909 in 14 games at the time of the trade. He has two other seasons of .909. He has a .919 and .921 and .903.
I’m going to see how he does to start this coming season.
You’re cherry picking a small sample size. Same mistake that Bowman made. The trend in Jarry’s numbers have been in decline for years. Even during the seasons that he put up good numbers, Pens fans couldn’t stand him because he let in goals at the worst times.
I agree with DevilsLettuce – bury him and move on.
The trend for all goaltenders is a decline in numbers over the last number of years.
He had one poor save percentage year in Pit, the .893 – other than that never below .903.
The Oilers may bury him if he’s poor to start the season (after a stretch) but I am highly confident the plan and hope is for him to be on the roster all season long providing better goaltending than last season.
Again, we are getting lost in a metal. The post was about the playoff cap and it only includes the players dressed for any game (plus dead cap) so they could have his cap hit out of the calculation if he’s not playing. There is also a reasonable chance he is the team’s starting tender for game 1.
14 would be 2 more goals than his last 3 years combined and that includes his games prior to the injury that is the main excuse for his supporters when you bring up his surprising lack of production. The team should be reasonably happy if he gets 10 in a season again.
This, along with the response on Jarry, is missing the point of the post.
As I said, they can be sat in the playoffs and their cap hits don’t count for the playoff cap but, of course, they both (or one of them) could be valued members of the team going in to the playoffs who they need to dress – we don’t know but they are both going to be on the team for game 1 and I will cheer for them to both play well.
This is easy. Jarry can sit in the pressbox during the playoffs, and Levi backup Anderssen.
Unless Jarry is the team’s best tender heading in to a playoff game – reasonably possible.
Is the plan to keep Levi on the big club all season? Does he have to go through waivers if he starts the year in AHL? How would it work (cap) if Jarry or even Andersen pulls a groin and goes on LTIR for 6 weeks and are healthy to play again?
Levi is no longer waiver exempt – he will be on the roster all season long.
If Jarry or Andersen are hurt for term, there would be no need for LTIR – that is only helpful if the team is going over the cap with replacements and, with near $5MM in cap space, it would waste any LTIR usage.
Skating
(18-20), (20-22), 22+ -> Total miles
———
21/22
407(65th), 77(64th), 2(60th) ->192(77)
22/23
412(66th), 85(68th), 5(80th) ->251(95)
23/24
453(69th), 91(70th), 3(69th) ->241(93)
24/25
505(76th), 78(59th), 4(71st) ->236(90)
25/26
376(58th), 60(<50), 3(66th) ->213(84)
5v5 TOI w/ Mcdavid (pts/60) -> & w/o
——–
21/22: 380 min(2.10) -> 510 min (1.15)
22/23: 420 min(2.26) -> 620 min (1.85)
23/24: 450 min(2.26) -> 520 min (1.05)
24/25: 390 min(1.50) -> 580 min (1.10)
25/26: 370 min(1.86) -> 550 min (1.12)
PP TOI (pts/60)
——–
21/22: 215 min (6.42) -> 23(1G, 22A)
22/23: 300 min (10.6) -> 53(15G, 38A)
23/24: 265 min (5.89) -> 26(4G, 22A)
24/25: 245 min (4.90) -> 20(7G,13A)
25/26: 250 min(6.96) -> 29(11G,18A)
Was going to see if narrative in brain made sense but don’t have time. Just dropping off some of the framing i was trying to build to see if what i thought i saw makes sense.
Might be useful to others for context
Wanted to dig into IPP rates and such as outside mcsavid’s season saving nuclear bomb detonating month where was really the only part of season he seemed consistently not just willing but i swear able to rip shots off while attacking the left side of the offensive zone 5v5 and PP just seemed like a reset for failed mcdavid solo attacks but not a lot of solid danger passes or solo attacks really happened at rates seen past few years.
Like nuge seemed to be just bail out bump pass return to mcdavid who would skate generally to right side of ozone after and rarer than i’ve ever noticed before really never come or pass back.
Savoie seemed a lot more dangerous there but that was with mcdavid and no hyman even….
Ricki?? Is that you?
I was just curious about Nuge’s “numbers” was trying to piece stuff together to see if it made sense.
Just found that 1st line was really odd last year in a way i’m not sure it was due to nuge overly declining. Just less integrated into plays and a ton more standing still at offensive blue line waiting on the mcbreakouts
Which maybe lesns into why tk that low.
I’m curious how turnovers are measured. Anyone know? I suspect speed is a considerable factor. As are systems/tactics.
A high pressure defensive system with an aggressive forecheck seems to be Babcock’s style. Excited to see it in action.
whats troll hunter? it blocked a LT comment lol
You click the circle with the line through it beside a commenters name and youll no longer see their posts until you click that circle again.
This is not meant to be a criticism of Babcock, as others have already cornered the market. I think his boldness (cockiness? swagger? whatever you wanna call it) will lead to some outside the box ideas with this team. We could see some things deployment-wise that we never would have expected under Knobby. He’ll get some satisfaction from finding innovative solutions that were not entertained here before
I have time for that.
It’s been said that teams take on the personality of the coach. Wouldn’t that be something.
Nuge!
I would think that “pressure” in the offensive zone to retrieve pucks would favour forwards such as Savoie, Hyman, Howard, Joseph, Podz, Kap.
Did Howard show the ability to retrieve pucks at the AHL level?
Yes, it was a significant area of development.
I think it will improve everyone, no longer standing and watching the other team reset as many times as they like until they score which became Knoblauch’s calling card for some strange reason.
Bowman and Smith were clear that, while they were still studying the league and will need to study the players on the team once its set to fully implement details of structure, they will 100% be a pressure team in the defensive zone – they want to get the puck back.
Look forward to the group executing.
We’ll see. Trent Frederic’s wheels weren’t right until late last season, Nuge and Hyman are slowing/injured. The guys making money will get a long leash, but Babcock isn’t a patient man. I suspect Savoie, who I mentioned in the article as having the highest turnover per 60, Podkolzin, Samanski and Max Jones will be a fit.
Not sure about Howard, we’ll have to see. Kapanen was brilliant under Babcock in this area during the Toronto days, less so recently.
I could see Joseph and Dach a fit as well – Dach will need to become a bit more “positionally sound” but that is what coaching and teaching is for.
Howard developed in this area (puck retrieval/offensive zone chaos creator) in the AHL and we’ll see if it translates to the NHL. I remain with zero idea how Babcock will use Howard (if at all) to start the season – he’s a hard working kid that Babcock should like but we’ll see what he thinks of his skill set.
Here’s hoping the patient Oiler fans give the team 20 games to show competence and a full season to fully form.
Sometimes it’s a quick fix like KK reducing the spacing on D opening the royal road. Switch from zone to pressure has historically not gone well here.
A pressure system might take turnover. Carolina targets specific players for their style eg. Rantanen couldn’t/wouldn’t do it.
I think it will take time to get acclimated to the coach and coach to players. Some players may not make it.
From what I’ve read Babcock has been communicating with the players since his hiring. I’m sure that he has communicated his expectations and the players are training accordingly. This, in theory, should minimize the time to acclimate. Fingers crossed
I’ve read/heard the same. Jones mentioned that Babcock had called him a few times and Dach mentioned that he had seen Babcock at the rink a couple of times in recent weeks – love the fact that Babcock is at the rink in mid July!
And Dach, too (though he’s local so he’s likely skating here, instead of the GTA or wherever else the other guys get their off season reps).
If Dach could take another step, that will be big for outscoring with Connor and Leon off the ice.
They still want to get off to a quick start, unlike past years. The players will need to get right into the roles they are expected to play, which may better suit the more experienced players. However we mustn’t discount the youth if they’re willing and able.