How many missteps is a general manager allowed before he is in the worry zone for termination? Oilers fans are impatient for Stanley, so calls for firing in recent years usually come right after the first loss of a playoff series. Please read this.
Stan Bowman appears to have had a good July (these things can turn around in a hurry though) so this is a good time to discuss something I’ve wondered about for ages. How many transactions does it take to trip the switch that leads to firing?
I know it’s a tough answer, because there are all kinds of factors. Sam Pollock, Bill Torrey, Glen Sather and Jim Devellano worked under pre-cap conditions and traded with many addled men in the GM’s chair for other teams. It’s more difficult for the veedon fleece in the modern era, but there are mistakes made every year by organizations. How many is too many?
On the other hand, maybe the question should be ‘when a deal turns south, how much can a GM recover?’ and Eric Tulsky’s work in the Mikko Rantanen trade was the stuff of legends. It didn’t look that way early, as the Hurricanes surrendered forwards Martin Necas, Jack Drury and a pile of picks for Rantanen and Taylor Hall. The calculation by Tulsky involved getting Rantanen’s name on a contract, and that didn’t materialize. So, Tulsky made a second deal, for Logan Stankhoven and picks. That was a nice recovery, and after winning Stanley this year, the lore around the Hurricanes and the team’s unique procurement is the talk of hockey.
The opportunity to be at the cutting edge of talent evaluation has always been available to the Oilers, but the McDavid era has been packed with famous older men who went by gut feel in the general manager’s chair. The Hurricanes still don’t have a star, the Oilers have two transcendent talents and a heavy addiction to the old ways. In his own way, Tulsky is as innovative as Bill Torrey when he left the Oakland Seals to become GM of the New York Islanders.
Jonathan Willis has written about Tulsky and innovation in a new book called “How to Win Forever” (link here) and I can’t wait to read it. Jon will be my guest on the Lowdown in the next while, and I think this is a good starting point for discussion about the Oilers organization post-McDavid. It would have been grand to have a strong analytics mindset over these years, and Tyler Dellow was in the building a decade ago.
What’s gone is done, but the future is available for business. This next decade in Edmonton hockey is going to be far different than the last one. Incredibly, it could be better in important ways, like Stanley Cup victories. The first question: how far are the Oilers from the Tulsky model? The answer sends shivers everywhere.
On the Lowdown today, Kevin McCurdy will be our feature guest and we’ll talk about team building, Bowman’s successful summer and what needs improvement (draft picks inside the top 40 would be a good start). Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Why Oilers winger Vasily Podkolzin is poised for an increased role in 2026-27
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7460796/2026/07/22/vasily-podkolzin-edmonton-oilers-stats-2026/
For me, Podz can be an impact player essentially everywhere in that lineup.
We know he’s complimentary to Drai and can produce close to 20 5 on 5 goals playing with Drai.
At the same time, if they have Nuge/Dickinson as a 3rd line, doesn’t Podz seem like a perfect completion player for that line – he can help complete and drive a strong 2-way 3rd line. I think he’ll stay with Drai, at least to start (Kap on that 3rd line if they do five Howard a shot) but Podz can play up and down this lineup.
I think he’ll just be a depth PK guy – at this point, nothing special in his PK but maybe Smith can do some teaching/coaching.
Podz is perfect with Draisaitl, playing him on the 3rd line is frankly nauseating.
Meh, there are many players that are great with Drai. Nuge was great with Drai. Yamo was great with Drai. Kap turns in to a top 6 player with Drai. Podz is great with Drai.
I am just fine with Podz playing with Drai but I see great value to him completing an impact third line while Drai maintaining large outscoring with other players – as he does.
I think we’ll see Podz play 1st, 2nd & 3rd line like we always do and he fits all three places. It’s intriguing to me how much we talk about where players slot in the lineup while the coach switches things up all the time.
I would say Pods fits the description of players Babcock will give every opportunity to succeed. We may even see a pp-2 that Mike gives more time with Pod in the Hyman spot. If Pod gets 20 plus goals then Bowman has a talent of finding this type of player. Bowman needs to continue to find misfits young big skilled wingers-centres. Dach-Poulin-Jones-Frederic-Jarventie-Samanski. If you roll the dice and find 2 players that Babcock can mold into effective players than Stan is the Man.
This is as I see it as well. Podz is incredibly versatile. He adds value wherever he plays up or down the lineup.
I believe in many bets in those type of players. At some point one more will emerge. Seems to be a specialty of bowman’s.
My money is on Dach to exceed expectations and end up pushing for top 6 minutes.
I just don’t see 2 smaller forwards in the top 6 add in RNH who isn’t the biggest forward either. These are some of bigger forwards Stan gave a chance with some responding into years of meaningful games and cups for the Hawks. Byfuglien-Eager-Bickell-Burish-Kopecky-Rozsivil-Saad-Handzus-Brookbank-Stanton-Anisimov-Smith-Van Riemsdyk- Stan likes bigger guys I just don’t see Savoie and Howard in the top 6 Stan is not going to allow free runs at Connor and Leon for 84 games. I think this is why they tried Fredric on the top line last year.
I don’t have a problem with Howard and Savoie in the top six. They’re both heavier ( close) than 3 of tampas top six. Both go to the hard areas. Howard does now although he didn’t early in season.
To have dach or Fred push for top 6 minutes allows for a shuffle when things get stale. Whether that means a Savoie to the third line or Podz or Hyman.
Neither Frederic nor Dach nor Clattenburg nor Tom Wilson is going to deter anyone from trying to to get bangs in on McDavid and Drai.
Some of Drai’s best success was with Nuge and Yamamoto as his wingers.
So you say so. You need to watch what Tom Wilson does to folks taking runs at Overchin. Ask Gretzky about Semenko and McSorely he’ll give you a honest answer unlike the rainbow chasing wingnuts on Sportsnet.
1) Lets start with the fact that McDavid and Drai rarely “get run”.
2) Lets be clear that what happened in the 80s has absolutely nothing to do with the current game, zero.
3) As you say “what Tom Wilson does to folks taking runs at Ovechkin” – exactly, the runs happen and there is a response. It’s not a deterrent. The teams will take the PPs every time.
Do you not watch mic-up hockey chatter you always hear somebody will go after your star players if you go after ours. Bowman I believe thought that Frederic was more combative it’s just isn’t in his DNA hence the Clattenburg call-up. Bowman has added functional toughness with Dach-Murray-Jones. Oilers could use a brute in the top 6 Bowman has time.
I’m hoping Dach can stay healthy. If he bangs and crashes as much as I think he’s going to try to, I worry about his durability.
The last two years without McDavid or Podz, Drai is only 50% goals and 48% in expected goals. Thats in almost 500 minutes – he hasn’t outscored.
with Podz he is 60% goals and 55% expected.
It’s as important to build the top lines as the bottom. Maybe more. Connor and Leon need enough quality as possible and the right fit especially as they age to keep performance up. And with a coach that will ask for more responsible play. I hope MB can build 4 good lines, it’s been a while
Fair enough and the numbers are the numbers and I accept them.
I remain of the opinion that Drai doesn’t “need” Podz or McDavid to outscore but it certainly works.
I think that Nuge/Dickinson may need Podz to outscore if they are playing tough minutes…..
He should be able to yes, but for some reason Podz seems to bring out the best in Drai. We need another Podz
I would, and remember I’m not a coach or GM and likely don’t know what I’m talking about, have these top three lines
Howard-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Savoie
Nuge-Dickenson-Kapanen
Draisaitl likes playing with players who are good at puck retrieval and on the forecheck and that is certainly strengths of both Podkolzin and Savoie. Savoie also has stronger offensive skills than Kapanen and better puck retrieval skills than Howard.
McDavid and Hyman stay as a duo. The only guy in the system with scoring skills close to Hyman is Howard. Let’ see if they can develop some chemistry together. He’s better defensively and has underrated passing skills. Howard is skilled at playing a rush game that fits better with McDavid.
Nuge on the third gives Dickenson a level of offensive skills than he’s rarely had the opportunity to play with. Kapanen adds speed, is good on the forecheck.
Kane/Nuge//Hyman were 4-1 goals with a 73% expected goals in the 2025 playoffs.
When the Oilers load up McDavid and Drai (and they will, likely more than most want, in particular at home – the coaching staff has already prepared us for that), Podz/Nuge/Hyman could be impactful.
I’m looking for some advice on buying a jersey. I’ve been following the team since the 06 run, and haven’t ever taken the plunge. I’ve also never tried one on, and don’t live somewhere that it’s an option. I’m 6’3 and about 245lbs, XL or XXL in a tshirt, depending on brand. Should I be looking for a 56? I’m thicker in the chest and shoulders, and have a longer than average torso.
Wirh the current fanatics jerseys, I’m guessing the breakaways aren’t really worth looking at? I want something that will last.
I’m on a bit of a budget, prefer not to go over $200. Any suggestions for good places to order? There are some clearance ones on the Oilers store right now. The cheapest option seems to be an adidas Nurse jersey that I’m honestly thinking I might bite on, though there’s an obvious stigma with the player. There’s also a Bouchard one for $175, but available in a 54, and I’m not sure if that will fit.
Thanks for any advice!
the Adidas ones are much better quality than the Fanatics so I’d go with that one if you were a Nurse fan and like the jersey! You can also check marketplace but it can be hard to tell which are real or fake.
not sure on sizing but if you are on Reddit, the r/edmontonoilers subreddit would be the best place to ask about sizing/jerseys.
I found the ones you are talking about and I would do either the Nurse in blue w/the 24 cup final patch or the white Kane. Those are really good deals.
here’s a Reddit thread where people talk about sizing for the adidas jerseys. They seem to say order your normal t shirt size if you want to wear a hoody underneath and size down if you will just wear a t shirt underneath. https://www.reddit.com/r/nhl/comments/1bpw0pu/jersey_sizing_on_adidas_authentics/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
I am an L and usually wear a M jersey with a light ish sweater or shirt underneath.
Thanks for the response. Are the premium fanatics jerseys actually worse quality than the adidas? I might have talked myself into getting a Drai jersey from sportcheck, as I have around $50 in CT money that I can use, but I’ve read some bad stuff about fanatics. Others have said they just bought out the plant adidas was using, so the better quality ones are maybe decent?
Oh yeah it looks like you are right – they sound like they are the same as Adidas. I was going off a Puljujarvi i had from a few years ago where the name plate started peeling off after wearing it like two times lol.
Wound up just ordering the Nurse one. He wouldn’t have been my first choice, but I thought he was hated more than he deserved. At $138, it’s a hard deal to beat.
Great choice, Thats a steal! Love the cup final patch too
Last season at this time Bowman’s options were limited by NMC in Mangiapane Frederic Janmark Henrique and Nurse all of whom were underperforming. It was late in season before injuries and trades opened opportunity for Dach Samanski Clattenburg Jones etc. This season Levi and Howard will also get a chance. Bowman and Babcock have flexibility to move them up or down and cap space to bring in alternatives in needed.
The Mug NHL
@TheMugNHL
·
27m
Maybe things are all swell and well and there “is an extension in the drawer” for January 1. Maybe, on the other hand, given, you know the team did agree with another org on a trade, its not quite as amicable……
Reminds me of when Lamiorello was supposed to have all of these big, blockbuster deals “in the drawer” when he was with the Islanders and nothing came from it.
The link says also says that Robertson wants to stay in Dallas. There might not be a deal on the table, but given he was willing to sign for less than value for one year I suspect, if it’s up to him, he stays. If Nill is cheap and refuses to entertain spending 17MM on Robertson, they’ll be teams lining up for him at the deadline.
Nill is the only GM that can offer him a 7 year contract.
Thats a huge advantage,
And he could sign him January 1
If it doesn’t look like Dallas can sign him, he’ll be traded at the deadline. And any team that trades for him can also give him a seven year deal. Don’t think it’s that much of an advantage for Dallas right now.
Considering the new trend to shorter and medium term contracts, no, no its not.
If Robertson is unhappy i don’t get why he gave them a discount – he would have got more than 12M in arbitration Im pretty sure
From the horses mouthes
https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/49428001/stars-gm-says-signing-jason-robertson-long-term-deal-remains-goal
LOL – what a meaningless retort, quotes from the GM on their goals to sign him long term – I have no doubt that’s the case – it means nothing, of course.
Well, for the Oilers organization, apparently you can trade essential 2 first round picks in a deep draft for a AHL player with potential that was already passed by two players in a weaker Islanders system.
Trade your top line LW & best player straight up for a 2nd pairing Dman.
Giving away a RHD who was missed used and put in position of failure for a 3rd round pick, almost cap the team out and he still wasn’t fired,
Yeah, but the Talbot trade was a good one…until they gave up on him for an unproven 30 year old from Russia.
I think the Oilers truly believed they were being innovative. In drafting, in talent assessment, in cap management, in coaching.
They built good rosters, but not perfect as they have been top heavy. Its what you get. And top heavy teams need to be played to strengths.
This in hindsight has been a downfall. Not a huge failure in my opinion as we watched them progress and get oh-so-close. Only against the best teams in the biggest games could you see the cracks.
The coaches were chosen to be youthful and grow with the team, but none had managed such top heavy talent. It was overplayed and the elements needed to create and mold an entire team were lacking.
The talent was always here. Maybe excluding goaltending which was average. Some grit was lacking, many don’t value that much. Some role development was lacking. Team dynamics where everyone pulled together was lacking. I look at coaching here. Best players still need direction. Good players need to know how they must contribute.
The mistakes though! Yes I agree. Better management talent could have and should have forseen the impact of losing top first round draft picks in Broberg and Holloway. Could have forseen the issues with goalies and restrictive contracts. Of holding onto other assets till they fail like Bourgualt, Yak and Jessie P. Too often they started the off season with signing Devon Shore ect to get that part of the roster “tidied up” instead of waiting for opportunity. Lots of talent slipped on by ….
All said and done, Oilers have plenty of talent today. If the past can be learned from and a real team is built they will be really good. Plus have the ability to add significant player(s) at the deadline who can make a difference.
Peter Chiarelli should have been fired before the McDavid draft…lol
Conversations around the brilliance of GMing in Carolina need to start with the fact they play in the worst division in the NHL.
They are a throughly mediocre team that has been running the easiest schedule in the game for seven seasons.
They won this season because the competition was rancid not because that roster was or is special.
The worst division in the NHL is the Pacific.
It’s not even close.
Oddly enough 4 of the last 5 Stanley Cup finals had a Pacific division team….
Getting through the Central is a but of a chore.
The pacific has risers and fallers. Its best teams are usually the best and they go through each other.
Its sent the last four Western concentre teams to the Cup Finals.
The Met is pathetic. It’s been falling since 2016, the only certitude is the mediocrity that comes from it. Teams that never get going, that never repeat.
Carolina is just good enough to get out of that. And proceeds to get throttled by real teams.
This year they got the right luck in the playoffs. Good for them. Luck.
Yup
The Pacific Division is widely considered the weakest division in the NHL, frequently criticized for a lack of depth and lower overall competitiveness compared to the Atlantic or Central.
Why the Pacific Division Struggles
The last thing this blog needed was dashing silver fu cg posting generic AI analysis of the pacific division.
I would take the Panthers or the Lightning to mop up the floor against the Canes boring style of hockey.
You just sorta proved the point. They kept showing up to the dance and eventually it worked out. When you don’t have stars, they just played the numbers and eventually broke through. They wouldn’t reach the highs of the Oil, Panthers, Tampa, Colorado but banners fly forever. Should they have asked to go in a stronger division?
They show up because they play weak teams.Their path is always easier because they don’t run into Tampa and Florida until the ECF. They are in the weakest division in the NHL. They get beat by good teams and the only flukier franchise in the Rags.
Good on them for showing up. There is a reason that nobody signs there and none of their players are sought after.
They aren’t that good. They play a high risk style that constantly exposes their goaltenders. They play a style that their weak roster can’t uphold against good teams.
Sweet they beat a morbidly old Vegas team and (checks notes) the absolute UNITS in Ottawa, Philly and Montreal. The ECF involved the Habs who didn’t deserve to make the 2nd round. I’ve never seen a team get its ass kicked that hard, repeatedly and still win. It’s totally unrepeatable.
Good on the Canes for taking advantage. But emulating their strategy is a destiny for mediocrity. Ask Calgary. Ask Winnipeg. Ask Toronto…
They got lucky every team they played was beat up. The Canes are one and done I think a team like Columbus will tune them in next playoff.
I think hockey stat fads are interesting.
Now GF/GA is so frequently sighted as proof of a player being good or bad.
Its an important stat but without context of who the player plays with and how their numbers compare to teammates I am not sure it tells us much.
The big thing with the OG Oiler stats guys with blogs was applying that context. It’s not easy and time consuming. I recall reading back then that over time those types of stats start to say something. Even plus minus
There’s reason Gretz is the career leader in that for forwards. Length of career plays a part of course
Agreed. I think it matters more over a longer period.
Still, it’s harder to assess middle pack players based on gf/ga.
Gretzky had great +\- in part because he played on great teams. He contributed to that success but if he had played on worse teams, e.g. the Canucks, it would obviously be much worse.
Isn’t goal share simply plus/minus? Which was thought to be irrelevant.
5 on 5 goal shares excludes empty net goals against which can make a massive difference.
In the year Karlsson won the Norris he was -26 by traditional plus/minus. He was on the ice for something like 23 empty net goals against, that’s 23 unearned minuses.
His 5 on 5 goal share was 50%, on a team that was -56 at 5 on 5. Think about how positively impactful he was that season.
Makes a huge difference in this context. Thanks.
Just for fun: If Karlson was on for that many empty net goals against, he/they kinda sucked at 6 on 5 play no?
They were an incredibly bad team.
Of course, I haven’t looked at those 23 goals but I suspect a large majority of them were from center ice, if not the defensive zone….
Jonathan Willis
@JonathanWillis
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Jun 14
1 mistake can be an outlier.
2 can be a coincidence.
3 is a pattern.
The correct answer is 3.
Three strikes and you’re out is a solid maxim that will serve you well in almost every aspect of your life.
Three strikes over how long though? 🤣
Depends on your risk tolerance!
Lol – I just read that Jack Campbell retired … to become a life coach.
Gave me a chuckle.
Wow, that’s a very ironic career choice for a guy who clearly lived in his own head too much and struggled with confidence issues.
He understands the target market personally.
Sounds like it’s the AA Sponsor model. I’ve never been convinced that the guy who’s made all the same mistakes is the best candidate to help others. How about those folks who just knew how to avoid these mistakes altogether? Is there not some value in that perspective as well?
I just know I would make a horrible life coach. “Why are you unhappy and unable to find a mate? Well, you’re bald, lazy, and broke. We should probably start with that!” lol
There are/were several therapists and addictions counsellors in my family. Effectiveness comes down to personal abilities I think. One had been in AA since his 20’s, worked pipeline, Fort Mac, went to school, worked at a major rehab facility and other places for years
One thing he said was that people with no personal experience, especially those from ‘functional’ families that went straight to uni and into addictions counselling, had so few street smarts they were constantly getting duped by their clients who had lived rougher lives. Many are very manipulative because they needed to be. Nobody duped the man I refer to, or at least very often, and he would call BS straight to the issues, he helped a lot of people
While nothing is perfect, the 12 step model has saved and restored millions of people. Not that I think JC is necessarily going to be a great life coach, but he has to do something I suppose
I’m a big fan of practical wisdom. Experience IS the best teacher. It’s just too damn slow!
This is pertinent to the analytics discussion as well, as it’s not always the best theory driven number cruncher who adds value to an org. More often than not, it’s the person able to ask the right questions of that data, usually to questions that have been frustrating them in the job for years.
I like Jack Campbell he seems like a nice grounded young fellow. I’m glad he has passion for a new calling after the mob kicked him when he was down. I’ll take life experience over book smart any day.
Addiction is a disease and addiction is addiction, whether the symptoms are abuse of alcohol, other substances, food, relationships, gambling, sex, internet, fitness or whatever.
There is great value in relationships with those that suffer from the same (incurable) disease and are having success in battling it.
I will defer to your vast experience in this area.
Darrin Feris was in the Puckpedia pod. Mentioned there were 3 offer sheets on the table for a tram include one at $14MM for four years.
He also confirmed that he shopped around on Broberg for the offer sheet. Holland did try and sign Broberg but they didn’t get there. Holloway’s inexperienced agent reached out to him for some counsel on Dylan’s negotiations – they were not speaking about offer sheets until Armstrong brought it up on Holloway.
Ferris with tons of criticisms of the Leafs and how they dealt with Marner over his entire career.
“for a tram”?
More teams should offer sheet methods of transportation I agree.
How many bad transactions does a GM get?
I thought GMSB should have been fired after both the Frederic contract and Jarry trade so I guess the answer is 1. Haha
Which is kind of my point. I think fans want perfect, but as you can read in the comments, I’m not sure the Tulsky style would have played well with the fan base in Edmonton.
One thing I wonder about that isn’t usually mentioned is transactions that are made for reasons that aren’t the GM trying to win hockey games or build the team. Things like selling season tickets (big moves bring big sales), marginal teams expending assets to make the playoffs so they can get 2-3 games more revenue, the owner “really loves” this Babcock guy or Yakupov kid, or even the draft where the second choice on a team’s list would be a homerun but choice number one was a dud.
In Edmonton, we really don’t know how much the tail (or the owner) wags the dog. Kevin Lowe very famously told us that there are “two tiers of fans” and that kind of mentality is how you trade a $2M, 26 year old, 50 point scorer Mike York with 3 years of team control/RFA left for one year of $4M 30 year old Mike Peca (who then put up 23 points). I’m not saying it’s a bad trade but I am saying that LT is right about the Tulsky style not selling here unless they make a big name addition of a GM who has won using the Tulsky style.
I think every player transaction made since the current owner purchased the team was made with the primary view of winning, either short term or long term.
Wait, wait….it would appear they knew York had issues and cashed in. That was one of Lowe’s Sather-style trades. They’d already seen his high water mark.
And you know exactly what Peca did in the playoffs, which is why he was brought in. The coach (MacTavish) miscast him in the regular season for much of it.
It is a really odd example to cite.
I hear you LT. But I dont expect perfect and I dont think most fans expect it either. What’s expected is for highly paid professionals to simply not be egregious stupid.
Both the Frederic contract and the Jarry trade were egregiously stupid.
Is the bar so low for Oilers GMs that we should expect egregiously stupid at least a few times in their tenure and be cool with it?
There would have been endless complaints bout like of size in the top six.
The 8-year term on the Frederic contract may turn out to be a major positive.
Of course, he needs to bounce back to a semblance of the player he developed in to on the Bruins but even 10G/20P will end up being full value for $3.85MM shortly.
OP I like your consistently optimistic perspective on Frederic and his contract, and maybe I will be proven wrong, but thus far I’ll stick to facts, and the facts are that Frederic is totally and completely useless and his contract is an absolute back hole, and no, scoring 10g and 20p for 7 years will not convince me that it’s a value deal.
And it’s also my personal belief that as stupid as SBGM was in signing that contract did he think at the time of signing that the best that can be hoped for is 10g and 20p.
It is not a fact that Frederic is totally and completely useless. Its a very reasonable and evidence based opinion that he was very poor last season and vastly underperformed his cap hit.
It is not fact that he will unperform his cap hit this coming season and what is a fact is that bar for value for $3.85MM has materially decreased.
As an aside, 10G/20P is 100% a bar that he will reasonably blow by multiple times through the term of the contract.
I’ve been using AI at my job quite heavily for the last 6 months. It is incredible what it can do with large data sets. Instant analysis. Connecting multiple data sets together, utilizing APIs – it’s all available to everyone now, no technical know how needed (although you’ll learn a ton about the technical side that has traditionally had many gatekeepers) It’s still on the end user to make sure the parameters are correct, and the results make sense, but I think NHL teams that embrace this technology to parse movement data/ puck data could be used to identify under (and over) valued players.
Have to get past the noise though and know what is important. I’m not as bullish on AI completely replacing jobs as some are – I still think it requires an operater. Maybe that changes as it improves. I am an accountant by profession but I see my value going forward in having the ability to connect vast data sets (of financial data) together to better understand business and performance metrics. I think there will be an absolute trove of work in this area over the next 10 years as smaller companies are able to access advanced analytics previously only available to large multinationals. At least until they paywall these AI platforms and take it away again.
I’m sure NHL Teams are using AI as well, although I bet adoption is mixed. When your day is busy, you tend to go to what your comfortable with, and AI will push you out of your comfort zone. Are the Oilers using all the tools available to them to get a competitive advantage? I hope so but history tells me they are probably a team that is behind on this.
Definitely going to take a look at Willis’ book too, someone on Reddit was asking about the “moneyball” equivalent in hockey and I think we just witnessed it this year.
I’m a software developer at a large fintech company (Nasdaq), and the AI adoption is in full force. It’s not necessarily the quality of the AI that’s going to displace workers, it’s engineers and developers building deterministic pipelines that are capable of performing complex tasks in reliable ways. The entry cost for these types of solutions were highly prohibitive, and now they are highly attainable. There will be an adoption lag of course, but once corporations realize they can have enterprise grade software built at a reasonable cost, it’s not really the reliability of AI in doing the actions any longer because that will be the surface where human interaction remains necessary for a while until AGI eventually becomes a reality.
Everyone is freaking out about the significant and massive security threat adopting these tools creates. Guardrails are ineffective in current state, older populace are throwing mind-boggling highly confidential data into these open sources and younger populace are adopting these things so quickly that the quality of work I get on my desk has plummeted. What it’s used for is game-changing, but many companies are going to suffer figuring out that it can’t do everything, yet.
Companies are blowing through their AI spend ‘tokens’ to the point that actual people have become more cost efficient. This won’t last, and if the Capex spend requirements are lower than needed (check the Korean markets) then the fun is just getting started.
yeah we are in the infancy of this, but large strides have been taken to date. I wouldnt conflate vibe coding with actual engineering though. Through the use of harness hooks and loop orchestration, it’s reasonably effective to create deterministic ‘guardrails’ / gates instead of relying on traditional(ha) AI based guardrails.
token costs are an evolving landscape for sure, right now its a capability arms race, but as enterprise companies adopt AI engineering, and cost and compute/power become more prominent focal points, adjustments will be made.
Im currently developing a local harness that uses local model apis to generate prefix locked context that gets handed directly to flagship LLMs and reduces token cost roughly 75% tking advantage of context cache pricing.
So if I’m doing that now, how long until Anthropic or OpenAI are shipping embedded AI GPUs that allow free local context generation?
I figured every startup developer was using Deepseak because of how much cheaper it was but essentially wrapping a local layer instead of calling in the big guns all the time sounds logical.
In an Oiler (and baseball) context, it isn’t meant to replace a set of eyes, but it can process data way faster and more efficiently when used right. It will give an edge to the right decisionmakers just like the internet did. Everyone will catch up over time but only a few would be truly innovative.
Think Redsox after the A’s showed proof of concept (on the margins. Moneyball is a fantastic movie but they gloss over how good those A’s truly were). The Dodgers have used financial muscle and integrated a heuristic model to make them best in class.
The Mets taught their AI what pitches to throw and they’re terrible. Throwing money at the new idea (Holland) doesn’t mean much.
Trying to bring this into context of the Oilers.
In regard to AI, the world is asleep at the wheel.
People think they are doing the right thing, as did every Oiler manager to date. But in hindsight the mistakes will be massive and irreversible.
Every Cup winner usually gets overrated, team and staff. Was selling the farm for Rantanen really that informed? I think he’s good, but overrated. They recovered well enough
I heard Dellow’s interview with Stauffer. We know they use analytics, but for player acquisition it’s more about fit – eyeballs. Dellow said as much. They wanted Stankoven because he fits how they and the coach want to play. It’s the same for the panthers
Assuming you have enough good players, outscoring comes from team play more than indviduals. And having enough goaltending. The Canes play hard and play to Rod’s system all of the time. The panthers are the same. I don’t see either as an elite team, but you are not going to beat them without being close enough to what they do, and hopefully having more talent
I also think the Canes remain vulnerable to more physical good teams
Always amazes me when people discount eyeballs. A team without knowledgeable eyes on a potential acquisition is not going to win much. The only time i’ve ever heard of such a thing was the NYI and Zdena Chara. Legend had it they drafted him sight unseen just based on his height and weight. One never knows if things like that are really true, but it is not recommended. Scouts are key.
Sharks drafted the 7’1 guy in the 7th round this year. Maybe they can teach him hockey.
Those were the Milbury days … I’d believe any of the stories, as Milbury was fully off the rails.
Tulsky was given opportunity through an owner who had no ties to ‘established practices’.
He wasn’t afraid to challenge standards ‘why do I have to pay Ron Francis millions to sit on his hands? What if I pay a Porta-potty millionaire 10 bucks to run the team and not pay the coach even though he’s the identity of the team?’
Tulsky getting Hall was specifically for you LT. And the threat of Bouch offer sheet. I think him and Dellow take great pride in showing the Oil just because you have the best player doesn’t mean you know ball.
Seattle’s cardinal mistake was letting Francis dither his way into that franchise.
i agree, the Francis in Seattle was a classic reputation over performance hire. They started wrong footed and now have to climb out of the marshy middle.
Goaltending and Nurse kept the Oilers from three Stanley Cups.
Keep the record straight.
As for Carolina, it took them 20 years to get back to a Stanley Cup final, and managed to win it due to the bizarre unfolding in the Western Conference.
OIles exceeded that.
Obsessing on analytics is ridiculous.
An old school GM signed Nurse to that contract. The record is straight.
Darnell Nurse:
2025-26 Playoffs Last Series (5v5): GF 7 GA 3
2024-25 Playoffs Last Series (5v5): GF 3 GA 4 (Differential tied for 3rd best on the team)
2023-24 Playoffs Last Series (5v5); GF 5 GA 4 (Differential tied for 6th best on the team)
Darnell Nurse:
2023 Playoffs Round 1 (5v5)
GF: 8 | GA: 4 | GF%: 66.67 | 8th best GF% out of the 19 skaters who Edmonton dressed for a game
2023 Playoffs Round 2 (5v5)
GF: 2 | GA: 7 | GF%: 22.22 | 15th best GF% out of the 19 skaters who Edmonton dressed for a game
2024 Playoffs Round 1 (5v5)
GF: 3 | GA: 4 | GF%: 42.86 | 12th best GF% out of the 19 skaters who Edmonton dressed for a game
2024 Playoffs Round 2 (5v5)
GF: 3 | GA: 10 | GF%: 23.08: 16th best GF% out of the 19 skaters who Edmonton dressed for a game
2024 Playoffs Round 3 (5v5)
GF: 3 | GA: 7 | GF%: 30.00: 16th best GF% out of the 21 skaters who Edmonton dressed for a game
2024 Playoffs Round 4 (5v5)
GF: 5 | GA: 4 | GF%: 55.56: 9th best GF% out of the 21 skaters who Edmonton dressed for a game
2025 Playoffs Round 1 (5v5)
GF: 4 | GA: 9 | GF%: 30.77: 19th best GF% out of the 20 skaters who Edmonton dressed for a game
2025 Playoffs Round 2 (5v5)
GF: 6 | GA: 4 | GF%: 60.00: 12th best GF% out of the 20 skaters who Edmonton dressed for a game
2025 Playoffs Round 3 (5v5)
GF: 4 | GA: 2 | GF%: 66.67: 13th best GF% out of the 21 skaters who Edmonton dressed for a game
2025 Playoffs Round 4 (5v5)
GF: 3 | GA: 4 | GF%: 42.86: 8th best GF% out of the 20 skaters who Edmonton dressed for a game
2026 Playoffs Round 1 (5v5)
GF: 7 | GA: 3 | GF%: 70.00: 4th best GF% out of the 20 skaters who Edmonton dressed for a game
In the 11 playoff series he’s played in since 2023, he’s had a GF% below 50 in 6 series and a GF% above 50 in 5 series. He’s only had 1 series where he had a GF% that was in the top 5 for the team and 4 series where he was in the bottom 5 for the team.
He was also a top 10 paid defenceman during all of these series, and in my opinion, a top 10 paid player at their respective position should be a positive difference maker regularly, which Nurse was not.
heaping all the non-goalie blame on Nurse is unfair.
The Carolina Hurricanes area fascinating story that someone, like Willis needs to unravel.
When you look at their cup winning roster, the first thing that jumps out is that, on paper, it looks kinda underwhelming.
It’s not a stacked roster like the 2022 Avs or even recent Panthers builds.
In other words. It’s hard to identify what so good about the team.
Even things structurally, like the age cluster, is a bit surprising as they had a lot of over 30 players.
The only discernible pattern is they generally don’t do anything stupid, cap wise, with maybe the exception of Kotkaniemi’s contract.
What you don’t see… Campbell’s buyout cap hit on the books, a Frederic and Jarry on the books.
Ironically, underwhelming much like their 2006 team (and, for that matter, the Oilers that year – with Pronger being the exception perhaps).
That’s how I see it as well. It takes luck to win, and both times it went in their favour> They played well, but there wasn’t a really formidable opponent that they faced
I didn’t mean to discount the brilliance of Tulsky and Dellow here. It’s just that it’s a subtle brilliance.
Like Zito ran around, fleeced Calgary on the Bennet and Tkachuk trades… found Forsling on waivers… had somehow pieced together a cup winning bottom four d corps without any glaring weaknesses for next to nothing in cap.etc.
In other words, Zito did lots of great moves that were easy to spot in hindsight.
Colorado had a great run of trades like Lehkonen and Toews etc along with prime MacKinnon and Makar…
Tulsky did turn Necas into Hall and Stankoven and a couple first round picks, but even that trade, Stankoven is a present day downgrade over Necas. They did get younger and some nice picks in the deal though. They also saved cap.
Im looking forward to young Willis mapping it out in his methodical style, to explain the mystery.
They kept getting close to the dance year over year until finally things broke right for them.
Like Vegas’ run in 22 where we were their best opponent, it could be argued the toughest team they played was Ottawa and the bounces went extremely their way in that series.
Vegas gave them a good test but would argue were inferior to the previous 2 Oiler iterations.
I agree, not doing stupid things and being adaptable is not exactly novel, but apparently harder to implement than it would seem. I blame the owners.
That’s a pretty decent take. You have to be in it to win it and lucky to be good.
You really need to get close multiple times and have some luck.
Carolina was fortunate to stay healthy themselves. It didn’t hurt that that Florida was retooling.
I think Colorado had a pretty good team last year, but they lost Makar to an injury against Minnesota. Lehkonen, Manson, and Malinski were all banged up too.
In an alternate universe, maybe Carolina doesn’t make it through Florida and a healthy Colorado team. Or even if they had made it through Florida, they could have lost a few key players to injuries.
Vegas missed the playoffs in ’22.
22-23 season. Good catch.
I see one: Kotkaniemi had 9 points last year and was healthy scratched the entire playoffs – he’s a near $5MM cap hit on an 8 year deal.
I had mentioned that in post.
You did mention it as something stupid they did but seem to exclude it from: “What you don’t see… Campbell’s buyout cap hit on the books, a Frederic and Jarry on the books.”.
For me, I have it in that Frederic category.
Canes don’t have that start but they tried hard, very hard, for a few years, including under Tulsky to acquire a star. They didn’t become smarter than everyone else and decide they could win the cup without a star, with 3 2nd lines, they tried hard to acquire a start – full kudos to their roster but “winning without a star” wasn’t the primary plan for them, right?
From my pov, the Hurricanes acquired players who could outscore opponents without regard to size (although they had some nice size when winning the Stanley). Their older players are smart and good, and have better speed than you’d think. For me, the poster player is Taylor Hall. A few years past prime but he can still turn on the warm jets.
‘Warm jets’. Do you mean pee himself?
Perhaps he meant – ram jets?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt3rKxRvmO4
Thanks. Yum.
No doubt the Cane’s management has done a fantastic job – that is objectively indisputable. I was solely speaking to them being built without a superstar and that not being a genuine strategy – Tulsky spoke expressly about trying to acquire a superstar.
He also had a good June.
The Dickinson and Murphy contracts at $4MM are both value deals as far as AAV given the July market. Yes, Bowman gave term but they each could have got another million in AAV on the market, with the term most likely.
Yes, but you can see how both contracts go askew of the fan base. Not at Frederic or Shea levels, but the desire for Stanley fuels anger when things don’t go as planned. I suspect one of those two contracts will be ridiculed on this blog by Christmas morning.
Disagree. They are both quality and consistent.
OP, always counting the chickens before they hatch.
And very skinny chickens at that.
So comparing contracts signed in the off-season to other contracts signed in the same off-season is folly?
Vincent Deharnais got a higher AAV than Murphy for term.
AJ Greer got $4.25MM, McCarron got $3.33MM X 6.
There’s a pile of irony in your post.
No one knows what the future will reveal… I would suggest that any new contract is counting chickens before they hatch.
I liked his July much better than his June. Draft day was kind of meh – it was like he and Pracey were allergic to offence.
I remain of the opinion that “grading draft day” is a fool’s task in the day, months (as it relates to players drafted, as opposed to trades, etc.).
Lots of criticism towards the big dude in the 2nd round and lots thinks some specific players that were available were egregious passes. There is every bit as much as chance that the draft player pops to a better career than the egregious passes as the other way around. For all we know the goalie drafted late is the stud of the draft.
All I know is, one year out, all 2025 draft picks have arrows up and are outperforming reasonable expectations for the draft slot at this point. Pracey has a method that he likes for identifying “under-rated” players – maybe he’ll turn out to have Tyler Wright like success or maybe he’s finding us some gems.
We have no way of knowing at this point.
That’s just my take on draft grades in draft year.