The Woodmoney Sledgehammer

The great thing about math is it just doesn’t care what you think. Math supplies you with information, and makes zero assumptions about you. Oh, you’re a dumbass who has no idea what math is telling you? Math doesn’t care. You’re about to make a massive error that will cost you dearly? Math doesn’t even bother to laugh.

In a world filled with people and things who don’t care or think about you, math rules the day. You cannot name any other thing that serves you completely while also having zero concern about you. Math, in the end, is a dink.

Logan Stanley was drafted in 2016. I loved his combination of skills, because I still love the old school hockey ways. Stanley was a big defenseman (6.07, 231) with good wheels according to scouting reports. You put Stanley in the 1972 lineup of the Buffalo Sabres and Punch Imlach would have played the hell out of him.

Despite my fondness for the player, and player type, I ranked Stanley No. 134 overall on my 2016 draft list. Why? By then, I knew enough about the math of the game to know Stanley’s value in the modern NHL would be mostly defensive, and that has held true (despite the nine goals last season with the Jets).

I was also concerned the Oilers would love him. The Oilers have that in them, you know. They do. Oh man I can tell you stories about the scouting department in Edmonton liking tall trees from Minnetonka to Mississauga and back again. I suspect there was a real conversation about Stanley, and in my heart would have been glad to see the Oilers take him. Deep down? No. 134 overall.

When the Winnipeg Jets drafted him 18th overall, I was relieved and disappointed. Since then, I’ve followed his career, looking at the numbers, watching him play, and reading the wonderful Murat Ates writing about him at The Athletic. We all have favourites, you know. I loved Don Awrey of the Boston Bruins almost as much as I loved Bobby Orr. It’s a thing. We get attached to players and then wish good things for them.

I hope Logan Stanley signs with a good team. I am not an analytics expert, and math is a dink, but here’s my take on Stanley and his current value.

Vincent Desharnais signed a big contract this summer. Why? The math tells me that he deserved a good contract. Natural Stat Trick has him at 2.2 GA-60 five-on-five (2.33 expected, so he earned it) and the big man and his wingspan do good work on the PK, too. His 6.65 GA-60 shorthanded in 171 minutes is truly splendid. Desharnais earns his money in suppression, making him one-dimensional, but he’s so good at it the good contract came through.

Logan Stanley owned a 2.57 GA-60 (3.31 expected) at five-on-five in Winnipeg, and a 2.9 GA-60 shorthanded (in 41 minutes). Added to the nine goals, I was pleased with Stanley’s season. After being dealt to Buffalo, his five-on-five GA-60 shone like a diamond (1.64, 2.2 expected) and I thought he would be signed by now.

Desharnais got $4.2 million times four years from the Washington Capitals. Tim Barnes leads the analytics team there, that’s the gold standard for math in the NHL. Stanley probably looked for money in that area, but so far it hasn’t arrived in the form of a contract offer, or he’d have a deal by now.

Free agency was unkind to Desharnais until this year. The smart math people (Barnes) pursued Desharnais while Stanley remains in the starting gate. Desharnais has max speed in the 70th percentile, and wingspan of a great white Pelican. He’s also dirt mean. That has real value. Desharnais is righthanded, making him a unicorn.

Stanley has many of the same things, but he’s a lefty and a little below average as a skater. His expected GA-60 bleeds a little on to the solid resume. I hope he gets a great contract soon, and I hope he thrives in his new NHL city.

On the Lowdown today, our feature guest will be Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation. If you get a chance, please read this. Lots of good things in there. We’re on noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube. See you on the radio!