Blowin’ In The Wind

by lowetideedm

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maudite

When the canes got over the layover man alive that was like borg level resistance is futile another solar system collapses.

Mark stone is going to have to put on a stealth breaking any system like goal scoring clinic if the knights stand any chance of takimg them down….barring the refs enabling a circus clown show like they did last year when florida got by them. That honestly was the worst referee influenced series i’m pretty sure i have ever watched most of.

Last edited 4 days ago by maudite
Reja

The Canes rolling through teams like the 80’s Oilers. Torts knows about the East. Who will dictate the pace Vegas are will Carolina keep the possession game going and spank Vegas?

Last edited 5 days ago by Reja
2minutes4lookingsogood

Go Canes. If we have to wait on Cassidy until after the final, let it be that Vegas don’t get rewarded for being turds again.

Reja

I wish our management had the same desire to bring the Cup back to where it belongs.

Fibonacci

Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli

The Carolina Hurricanes are the first team in NHL history to reach the Stanley Cup Final with only one loss (12-1) in the first three rounds. 

Since 1987 with playoff expansion four rounds x seven games:

2026 Hurrcanes 12-1
2012 LAKings 12-2
1988 Oilers 12-2

Machine.

smellyglove

Interesting: Oilers are top revenue grossing team in the NHL? I would have expected them to be a top-10 lucrative team, but TOP seems high.

Regardless: with this revenue coming in, why don’t we have an analytics department the size of the average club’s front office? Why don’t the Oilers employ multiple scouts that follow every single team and farm teams? With this kind of income, we should be using laser beams to find those friendly and unfriendly bounces in away game barns for crying out loud.

maudite

When you can manage to pilfer surely closing in on 100 million from just the charitable end of 50/50 tickets since you took over as owner and price of a beer has went from 9 dollars to 18 or more in the span of 10 years….

How could they not be at top or right near it?

Like a printing money machine in a building he didn’t pay much of anything for and rent supplimented so literally free money machine press.

My personal finest finishing touch is volume of luxury seating over general.seats that would have made more seats in building obviously on the higher end…why?

Because tjose beauties aren’t included in the HRR owner splits with players.

Like amazing ponzi scheme

Sierra

When you can manage to pilfer surely closing in on 100 million from just the charitable end of 50/50 tickets

Care to elaborate on this wild accusation?

godot10

Stanley Cup playoff revenue is not recurring revenue.

OriginalPouzar

A minor note, Peter Hauser and Albin Sundin because UFAs if not signed by Monday.

smellyglove

I have to say I love the way the Hurricanes play. They are like a finely-tuned Swiss watch. Every player can skate, strong posession skills. Agressive on the PK, forecheck, backcheck. No game-breakers per se. They are relentless.

I think a team with some beef on them would give them trouble, so it’s lucky for CAR that Florida’s out. I could see a Kane, Perry, Nurse giving them a go, however.

Sierra

Habs continuing their attempt to win by getting less than 6 shots a period. Not going well.

Reja

They’re terrible when Dobes doesn’t play Tretiak like.

Lenny

If we follow the precedent that Vegas and the NHL are setting by not allowing Cassidy to interview while he is under contract, could we technically do the same with Knoblauch for the next three years?

Tarkus

Not sure about that, but I would love to see a situation where if a Knight scores a milestone goal vs. the Oilers next season, the Oilers should refuse to give them the puck until the season is over.

Last edited 5 days ago by Tarkus
2minutes4lookingsogood

Love this! Is the puck Oilers property? Charge them a 2nd rounder.

Sierra

I’ve suggested the Oilers do exactly that. If Vegas can do it then all teams should do it until the league steps in to put an end to this nonsense.

Reja

Nice guys finish last it’s time Bowman gets his edge back.

2minutes4lookingsogood

I hate Vegas but envy their cold heartedness. I just want to win too!

MushedPeas

haven’t checked the comments yet.

goddammit Max.

TheGreatBigMac

A thought on Kyrou, Jordan Eberle when he was traded from Edmonton is a good comparable. Same age, same position, almost the same production stats, same cap hit %. Eberle was more of a play maker, Kyrou is faster with a great wrist shot, both less physical types.

We traded Eberle for Ryan Strome, it seems the price for Kyrou will be higher.

Fibonacci

Kyrou has scored 30+ goals three times….37 career high.

Eberle has never reached 30…career high 28.

Kyrou has scored 75 points in a season.

Eberle’s best is only 43.

Not at all in the same tier.

Scungilli Slushy

Try 76

HT Joe

Eberle has also scored more than 30 goals before. That’s the laziest troll comment I’ve ever seen.

TheGreatBigMac

Both players after completing age 27 season (Kyrou’s last)

Eberle 588 games
Goals 208, .35/game
Assists 233, .40/game
Points 441, .75/game
Cap Hit: 8%

Kyrou 506 games
Goals 196, .39/game
Assists 214, .42/game
Points 410, .81/game
Cap Hit: 8.5% (8% next year)

Last edited 5 days ago by TheGreatBigMac
Sierra

Kyrou has scored 75 points in a season.

Eberle’s best is only 43.

Not at all in the same tier.

Holy phuck, wrong again!

Eberle has 10 seasons with more than 43 points and his high is 76 point in a season.

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville

Don’t you ever feel embarrassed for yourself?

Side

comment image

2minutes4lookingsogood

You always have a way of only showing stats that agree with your narrative. Even if real numbers contradict your view.

OriginalPouzar

Andy Strickland’s thoughts (and this lines up with mine as far as eventually getting permission):

You really don’t think teams like Edmonton can’t have back channel communication with Bruce Cassidy? There are certainly ways to talk, Vegas will eventually allow permission once their season ends. If not Bettman will get involved

Reja

That’s what agents do to think otherwise is naive.

leadfarmer

Beryozkin not signing with us. Just makes Stan’s job even harder

DevilsLettuce

I would be happilyy shocked if he played above a 4th line level in the big show, imo Stan’s job would be much harder trying to sell Beryozkin as an legitimate top 6 option.

Tarkus

Then use him as a sweetener in trade. Pretty obvious he’s not interested in being an Oiler.

kinger_OIL

— to the extent math matters I’m fairly confident that analytics would support my gut that guys entering mid 20s that score 7 goals in 60+ games in a foreign league and this represents a 50% decline in goals over their previous year and less points season over season and regression to points output from 3 seasons ago on same team: that don’t math up very well for probability or expected outcome to make impact on Cup aspirant teams.

— Maybe they pair his 7 goals with the 7 points 8 years guy to form a super-line …

Sierra

I don’t know what the new gig for Parkatti entails

Maybe it’s the same as the old gig but with a new fancy-dan title. I hope not, but one really never knows.

I’m also not convinced that recent moves such as the Mang & JSkinner signings and Frederic and Walman extensions scream “model of success” for the analytics group.

kinger_OIL

— no those were the bad old school gut picks

— parkatti’s analytics group only responsible for the good picks

*** ducks****

Sierra

Maybe the old school guy doesn’t listen to the cool kids

Scungilli Slushy

The GM runs the team, hence the name. They are responsible for profit not the POHO, their head goes first. Sather said as much in one of the books LT has on his shelf. POHO is the owner’s conduit, so in the greater sense leads direction, but they wouldn’t hire a GM where there wasn’t agreement on direction. Very little chance SB isn’t on board he just gave out a bunch of raises to tall foreheads

JJ said that they were going to work to be at the lead in all things progressive when he was hired, and they have put money into many things that weren’t being done previously

godot10

Then JJ went out and signed Jeff Skinner and Victor Arvidsson, and exposed himself to being double offersheeted. Leading in all things progressive….not really.

Scungilli Slushy

It was a dense decision, probably fuelled by some agent hubris. I don’t think he thought it would happen because rare. He should have noticed who had picks and cap, and what salary would get them to sign. Especially given the profile those two got in the playoffs. Ignoring Holloway also doesn’t make a lot of sense

HT Joe

Do we have any sense if re-signing Frederic last summer was an analytics move? I sure hope not.

Scungilli Slushy

He had good numbers on the Bruins. Kane was done and there aren’t many guys like that who aren’t limited players. I’ve posted a couple of times what Tampa paid for Jeannot, it was a ton and they moved on at a loss. Fredric was better somewhat than Jeannot around that time

We have to put aside that he’s struggled. If you want a big guy who will fight and can play choices are few. The contract repeatedly gets overstated. 3.8 these days is a lower one. The buyout is not bad, so term is irrelevant to me, and I don’t think it goes there. I also think they aren’t trapped as in the Holland era, they can find and make deals. I don’t agree that the ones made have been egregious as some people think

The thing that gets me is singling out a few whipping boys. Always happens but last year was an anomaly. The whole team mostly struggled. Kulak was almost unplayable when he was dealt, getting wildly outscored. The mood was as blue as Linda’s Bayou. The team will look different next season. Hopefully everyone gets their heads together and comes in fresh and ready to play

Hopefully the new coach pulls them together and they get to work on the next step. It may not happen but I hope they can get back the roster that was built and we see them all play to their abilities. The coaches get the order right and builds them through the season

Reja

Frederic will get a fresh start with a new coach. K.K threw him into the fire by having him on the 1st line maybe they seen Patty Maroon in him. That was the 1st comparison I thought of when the trade happened. Frederic shouldn’t have been benched against Anaheim he was playing well. I would try to build a line around Frederic put very little pressure on the line to begin with. Enough of this blender crap form 4 lines let them find an identity. When’s the last time we had a name for a line certainly never under K.K?

Lenny

Bowman says they use it in all decisions. Freddi might have been a good bet for a bounce back year. He had two good years then a bad year with injury. But as a buy low guy, not an 8 year guy

Scungilli Slushy

The sticking point at that time was the cap. That player type is overpaid because rare. The term is about that, if the buyout is pretty low does it matter much with a rapidly rising cap for a team with cash, if it came to that?

Scungilli Slushy

People used to talk about the Toronto conglomerate leveraging finance to sign guys because they could pay more up front or whatever, cash wasn’t an issue. For many teams it is, seems the Oilers are leveraging that. As in deciding they wanted a coaching change and eating a ton on it

Sierra

Yes, buyouts matter regardless of how much cash the owner has. The cap is finite.

Scungilli Slushy

True and I’m anti buyout but it’s under 2 can’t recall the exact. Minimal cap impact given current cap. Also worst case scenario

Reja

I hate buyouts the Sekera one was to impulsive so was Campbell. Holland did some strange moves throwing away draft picks like chocolate bars. My favourite one was Mike Green for one fuking game.

OriginalPouzar

Sekera wasn’t impulsive, he went from being a 2D/3D to LTIR to replacement level due to the playoff injury – went from a value contract to an anchor they needed to divest of.

dulock

Seems doubtful. Analytics usually shows that power-forward types tend to get injured and their production drops off a cliff.

Parkatti writes about it here: https://boysonthebus.com/index.php/2019/07/23/how-many-goals-will-james-neal-score-in-2019-20/#:~:text=The%20inexorable%20crawl%20of%20time,off%20between%2031%20and%2032%3F

Scungilli Slushy

Jinner was 100% analytics. Solid 5v5 scorer over years and that’s what they needed, signed cheap enough. What failed was the ‘eye test’ Jackson being an agent and not a scout – terrible fit with style

Mangi and Fred had more eye test, same thing, player with recent decent history of 5v5 play, under 4M (cap was tight), and also agitators which was missing. Both are not too old, both have enough boots. The issues here are Mangi hasn’t recovered from his shoulder surgery to his previous level, and Fred it seems from reading about him in Boston can lose his confidence, and also had a slow healing injury. Fred struggled as an emerging player under Cassidy, had his good seasons under a much friendlier Montgomery. It was a risk Fred would get his ankle back that season, maybe one that was too much risk

The misses here are mental and health. That needs to change for the better

godot10

The first thing Tulsky and Brind’Amour did when Brind’Amour became head coach after being an assistant coach was dump Jeff Skinner, without so much as seeing him play another game.

Scungilli Slushy

That doesn’t make any sense, they saw him play many games

Scungilli Slushy

He was also making a huge salary

OriginalPouzar

They did hire, I believe, three analytics people in to the department recently so change is afoot, I believe.

Melvis

LT takes me back over forty years…jeez. Lorraine Segato? That’s digging pretty deep for a quote…
Parachute Club rolls down Front St heading west toward Spadina and my apartment in Clarence Square.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNwuB76pBcc

Melvis

I mean Wellinton St.

kinger_OIL

— Spirits time has come … There was a time when CanCon produced music that was mostly only consumed in Canada and was a whole industry. What a fun song…

— reminded me of my cool older sister who would listen to that rebel music station CFNY with live earl jive, Chris Puppy Dog Sheppard etc…I’d sit outside her room as her and her friends would blast it on the ghetto blaster …

Melvis

Toronto had a great club and music scene in the 80’s. Unfortunately, it seems, the spirits have largely fled…

Beverly Wavered

I’ve sort of rediscovered the first PClub record this past year.
Music holds up well, talented musicians, some fantastic songs, sounds AMAZING (production by Daniel Lanois)

OriginalPouzar

There are reports out of Russia that Berezkin will be re-signing with Locomotiv (for two years).

I hope they are not true.

Reja

That sucks. I wonder why? Him and his agent might of wanted some guarantees on playing in the NHL. I thought he was signing on the 1st?

Scungilli Slushy

Probably. I am always hesitant with things like this. The Oilers have competition these days for spots, and there is no clear path for a guy who is not a Panarin type. Some Russians (and others of course) don’t seem to want to work their way onto a team. Fair enough

Actually I am surprised they can actually sign some of these older pro types like Tomasek and Leppanen. If they went certain teams they have a way higher chance of playing in the NHL

Reja

The fact that our PP for a 1:45 is written in stone probably scares off some skilled players. They did give Tomasek some time as net front on the PP when Hyman was out.

cowboy bill

He should get a new agent , he’s obviously getting bad advice.

OriginalPouzar

How do you know it’s bad advice? Do you know what’s important to Maxim the 24-year old person who, I believe, has lived his entire life in Russia? For all we know he has a sick parent that he doesn’t want to geographically abandon.

Reja

Maybe he has Jesse delusional agent.

Sierra

Cripes, that’s horrible news of true.

Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan

i hope that its nonsense. the account it came from is hardly reputable

OriginalPouzar

Lets also not forget he also has a North American agent, Dan Millstein and, while I don’t know how it works, I would guess the interests of the two agents are probably not aligned.

OriginalPouzar

Correct on expiry of his existing deal and when he’s available to sign in the NHL

OriginalPouzar

So the IIHF decision earlier this year to continue ir the ban on Russian participation has been annulled after appeal by the Russian federation. This does NOT mean they are able to start participating but decisions will be made on an event by event basis.

World politics and human rights issues aside, international hockey is not at its best without Russian participation, in my opinion – looking solely at hockey and nothing else (which cannot be done in practicality, of course).

Gi JQE

Totally agree.

Every event that has no russian team just is not complete (again not to get into politics. Just hockey in a vacuum)

meanashell11

Don’t care. The principal is more important.

Scungilli Slushy

LT the blog garburator ate a comment I put a lot of thought into, because I edited it twice for diction. Please free it sir!

Scungilli Slushy

Thanks!

Scungilli Slushy

My take is Bowman et al are looking for undervalued players with ceiling, or a stylistic fit to team needs. You know, like that old timey guy we sometimes refer to. In a not unsimilar way he’s scouring Europe and finding realistic options and some that are long shots with that potential ceiling

The Oilers are not able to go get what they want because of cap and asset concerns, what GMs are asking for, like most teams in their position. Bowman has said he weighs each deal and won’t take certain ones. I don’t think he has been taken to the woodshed as some do, have put the arguments up here, and it circles back again to he sucks, is the worst ever, and can’t find his ass with both hands

The Avs are entering cap crunch time as raises come, have less assets than the Oilers, and just flamed out hard after a PT season. The Oilers haven’t won a Cup but haven’t done that and overall in the McDavid era have had more success. More than all but one team

A lot of the chat is very down on certain folks on the ice and off. I rebut, because to me it seems largely emotionally based, is circular (back to the same grudge after lots of stats introduced and logical arguments), and doesn’t take into account context. It’s based on surface numbers and/or recent play. Oddly love is showered on former players with repeated bad playoff numbers and issues in style, that contributed to not winning the Cup. Like “perimeter play is ok”. With the leaders breaking playoff records. The grass is always greener

Jarry had a rough time after injury. That the team was as morose as I’ve ever seen it and floundering, it hurt a lot of players this season, lots of injuries. He may not pan out, and we’ll see what the league thinks about Stu soon enough

Ingram was exactly a take a chance and see if he gets back to his ‘league top metrics’ that he had with Arizona, fairly recently. And he cost nothing, and they retained. If that’s not Satheresque what is? We don’t know why they wanted to move on in net, Bowman said it was time. The Oilers had solid stretches in the playoffs until the end series, and the goalies two times were at the bottom statistically, that has to be a part given they did have a decent and populated stats team

So Jarry. He had a rough time after injury. Were there no stats involved, just a gut feel and some old guy that watched him with the Oil Kings saying he’s a good kid? I googled Woodley on him. Use google asking ‘kevin woodley on tristan jarry’ and read what the AI says. There is also an article you can read a bit of before paywall:
https://ingoalmag.com/2025/12/12/myth-busting/

To me it is a stats based decision, looking for more ceiling, given the context of who was available and the cost. Also further planning such as clearing cap for the deadline. The biggest piece I think was the feeling that a move was necessary. The team was reeling, there was smoke around whether the team trusted the goalies, even if they liked them personally

That some of these moves haven’t worked out is a different conversation, and they still might. The Avs paid for old man Kadri, and he didn’t make a difference. I was happy for Kulak getting a shot, he and Manson were the two regular D with a negative 5v5 goal share. The Canes were embarrassed after finally going after talent, only to have Rantanen say he wouldn’t stay, so another move was needed

Not a good look for a perennial contender, right? In the long run will they win the trade? Out Rantanen, Necas, Drury magic beans and in Stankoven, Hall and magic beans. They are having a great playoffs, but I don’t think it’s largely because of the trade even if the two are playing well so far, it’s more goaltending for once. And it’s one playoffs, lots of road ahead. It’s not just the Oilers

Last edited 5 days ago by Scungilli Slushy
Scungilli Slushy

Ryder hit a lot of these points as I was typing

Gi JQE

You have expressed a lot of how i feel.

Especially the back half. So many fans seem to get so down on their own team on any move that doesnt pan out. But forget that every team has these. I think the Aves pouched it big time on kadri and will suffer from it.

Fibonacci

Colorado’s cap crunch is minor.

All their key players are locked up in including their top 10 forwards, top 4 D and goaltending.

they will likely have to move 1 forward, let Drury walk (they don’t need him and have an internal replacement) and use the savings to shore up their D.

The following season they have $37 million in cap space to accommodate a Makar extension and adjust their forward corp.

Fibonacci

Lost among all the playoff hoopla is Colorado signing the leading NCAA free agent.

T.J. Hughes (C, Michigan): One of the most productive scorers in college hockey, averaging more than a point-per-game throughout his NCAA career. Highly coveted for his elite hockey IQ and playmaking abilities.

OriginalPouzar

TJ Hughes turns 25 a month in to the NHL season. He’s about half a tier above Quinn Hutson coming out of college.

Fibonacci

Perfect..prime career age.

OriginalPouzar

Unlikely to be an impact player in the NHL, if an NHL player at all.

Fibonacci

You have zero knowledge of that.

“TJ Hughes was one of three finalists this year for the Hobey Baker Award as the top player in NCAA men’s Division I hockey but was edged out by University of Minnesota Duluth forward Max Plante on Friday night.

Hughes led Michigan in scoring this season with 21 goals and 56 points in 39 games to finish second in the nation.

He captained Michigan to a 29-7-1 record this season to finish as the No. 1 seed entering the Frozen Four tournament.

Hughes recorded a goal against Denver in the Frozen Four semifinals on Thursday but his team ended up falling 4-3 in double overtime to end their run.

The 24-year-old played four seasons in Michigan, recording 102 goals and 179 points in 156 career college games and is the Big 10’s all-time leading scorer.”

———————-

Colorado has a stellar track record in signing undrafted NCAA grads that have an impact in the NHL.

Sam Malinski is among them.

He signed with Colorado after a 4 year stint with Cornell and is now thriving as their 2RD.

This past season he scored 6 goals and 40 points with a GF of 70.2%!

Another on their roster is Logan O’Connor who, while also undrafted, was signed after 3 seasons with the Denver Pioneers and is a fixture in their bottom 6.

The Avalanche also just signed Matthew DiMarsico a sniper who played 3 seasons at Penn State and finished second in scoring just behind Gavin McKenna.

McKenna scored 15 goals while DiMarsico scored 18 leading all Penn State forwards.

They might not all be impact NHL players but Colorado has an eye for recruiting and developing talent from the NCAA free agent pool.

OriginalPouzar

Colorado’s continuing to fall short of playoff expectation, many year’s materially (with this season being only their 2nd time past the 2nd round in the Bednar/MacKinnon and Sakic eras) is likely a bigger talking point.

Reja

Yep. MacKinnon gets shutdown by certain teams.

Scungilli Slushy

Puckpedia

26/27
17/23 roster
2.979M cap space

27/28
12/23 roster
75.729M signed. Cap to be 113.5M = 37.771M
Makar 14M = 23.771M to sign 10 players

26/27 they have to lose cap. Depth will be lost

27/28
Prime UFA’s Lehkonen, Ross, Roy, Wedgewood (current combo cap hit 14M) 4D signed including Makar once done. Less than 9.771 left for 6 players if they want to keep their UFAs. You have to think the 4 UFAs get 1M more easily so if they stay 5.771M left for 6

So like the Oilers they have decisions to make. The cap says you lose the depth that is more than other teams at some point, especially when you are top heavy. Happened to them a couple of years ago

HT Joe

Great comment first of all. Lots I appreciate and agree with.

I think my concern is that while every team makes mistakes, it seems like the Oilers have just made so many mistakes since drafting McDavid. Just looking at the last year:
– Re-signing Frederic for too much / too long / NMC
– Signing Mangiapane, and then using a 1st round pick as part of getting rid of the contract.
– The Jarry trade. Not only did it not work out last season, but it cost the Oilers the cap flexibility to get a different goalie this off season (almost $8M tied up between Jarry and Campbell). Do the Oilers have enough money to get a legitimate backup? Can we even afford Ingram?
– Yesterday, I saw a video where the Vegas GM was insistent that the Oilers leaked their interest in Cassidy to the media. I know it’s Vegas’s word against the Oilers, but the Oilers have leaked things to the media again and if true, this is a bad look with respect to moving on from Coach K.

In addition to poor moves, the Oilers made some high risk moves that may not pan out.
– We don’t know yet how the Walman contract will pan out. It doesn’t look like a great deal, and has potential to become an anchor if last year’s poor health wasn’t an outlier.
– We have Jarry for 2 more years. He seems to get injured a fair amount, and if he gets injured in the next two seasons, that makes things harder for the team.

I think signing Roslovic worked out pretty well. 

So when comparing the Roslovic signing vs. the poor and risky moves, I don’t have a lot of faith in Jackson / Bowman.

Scungilli Slushy

The tough part of analyzing all of these things is keeping all of the factors involved together and then weighing the quality of the decision. I find one thing is usually mentioned and not the others, so it’s not a complete picture

For example they didn’t use a first to get rid of Mangi, it was a part of a larger picture. What ended up happening was a 1st and 2nd for Dickinson 50%, Murphy 50%, Dach, Mangi out clean with a year left on his deal. It’s too bad Mangi couldn’t handle it but not an easy season to join

I’m actually surprised the Hawks did that given at the time that 1st should have been a late one meaning no different than a 2nd. Actually anything in the back half of the first round is that by odds. That’s a lot accomplished for essentially two 2nds, and a quick decision on Mangi so no ongoing drama

If they can’t retain anyone but Dach it’s more of a hit

Reja

Dach might be the best player in the entire deal. Bowman drafted Dach and I do believe we get a Blackhawk discount on the Murphy contract.

rev.hans

Thanks.

Lenny

Im curious why Podz is seen as an analytics find? Stauffer brought it up yesterday as an analytics influenced acquisition as well and Bowman said it is used in all decisions.

Is it because he has a very good rookie season production wise? I know 25 to 30 point seasons are rare for a 21 year old but is there anything else analytically that suggested he would be a player? Just me but it seems like this would have been a scouting find to see his physical tools and style of play because there wasn’t really much data on him.

but, I do really like the idea of finding guys who had early success and then lost confidence/faith from the coach.

kinger_OIL

— yeah if I look at roster construction in the lense of managing money I’d be very skeptical of pronouncing so and so a “quant” selection while this guy was a “gut feel” move

— The consideration for the buying and selling of securities in a portfolio would have many layers of decision making and process.

— now hockey GMng is decidedly bush league compared to the intellectual capital and data within a modern money manager. It would be akin to saying : yeah the purchase of AAPl was clearly a gut feel old school pick by the old school PM. But STX that was clearly a quant pick by the bot

— it just doesn’t work that way. It feels like it’s a narrative trying to fit into a pre determined belief system. Too many factors to conclude “this one is more quant pick because it worked out”. And this one “more gut feel because it didn’t work out”.

— Analytic process in isolation doesn’t determine the result. It’s a tool. One doesn’t cherry pick or assign percentage attribution based on outcome as an outside observer unless your trying to confirm a bias IMO

Scungilli Slushy

Reminds me of the Oilers going way back. The hangover from the dynasty lasted a while, and it seemed they soured quickly on everyone not immediately looking like Coffey Simpson or Kurri and filling the net

The Canucks drafted a player who plays just like his draft report said, and then turned to but he’s top 10 why isn’t he Kucherov?

OriginalPouzar

They had to thought, right? I mean, they needed to find room to keep Aatu Raty and Arshdeep Bains on their opening night roster that season…….

rev.hans

I would imagine publicly available (and fairly obvious) stats like G,A,Pts, Pts per game, Pts per 60, +/-, even GF% would be the minimum standard on any player transaction, no? Having a good rookie year, then fading, and perhaps being able to recoup that rookie performance seems like a “gut feel” thing.
I wonder, what else is being tracked, via non-public statistics?
Having watched his development over two years, what seems obvious to us now, that only obscure (to me, us here) data points might have suggested to Parkati, GMSB back in 2024?

OriginalPouzar

Its tough to say without have any real idea of what analytics the team is doing and looking at. Lets not forget, often those hired in to analytics departments these days have masters in mathematic, I’m sure we can’t comprehend the type of analytics there are doing and it goes well beyond what we see on NST and puckIQ and HockeyReference, right?

Ryder

I have no inside information but I’m curious if the Jarry trade was driven by analytics. Taking one of LT’s mantras of if something doesn’t add up on the surface (i.e. the value given up for Jarry) maybe we’re missing something and we should look for alternative explanations other than management is incompetent. Here’s a hypothesis:

I think it’s fair to assume private models and data held by NHL clubs are (much) more advanced than public models which have significantly less funding. And the gap could be even larger for goaltending as there really isn’t a ton out there publicly, other than xGSA which from reported accounts isn’t the most accurate at valuing shot danger (one-timers and puck moving horizontally are undervalued). Moneypuck does amazing work but if you ever gander at the xG value they give certain goals, it does leave you scratching your head sometimes.

Kevin Woodley is a guy who has his own data and thought Jarry was a decent add. Stephen Valiquette also has his own model that values goalies differently. Point being, there are other models out there and maybe the Oilers model liked Jarry’s advanced underlying metrics and Bowman was acting on that. Again, not saying this is the truth, but I think it is plausible.

godot10

The Jarry trade was a bad trade because of his contract, and the cost in assets to acquire him. Analytics/AI should also be used in the non-hockey part of the transactions.

And if they used analytics on the hockey side in this case, Jarry sucks, so they are were clearly using the analytics incorrectly.

Bowman has rung up a long series of failures in major acquisitions. Frederic, Walman, Jarry, Mangiapane. So the management changes seem more like a PR exercise and/or hopefully a signal of change, though probably too little too late in McDavid Time.

kinger_OIL

— but it’s a human team sport and emotions and beliefs matter

— Skinners tenure has to come to an end it didn’t matter that analytics might have said

— there wasn’t an infinite amount of choices available. To be sure it was an expensive trade and if he doesn’t play like he was for the short time after before he got injured it will be bad

— So I’m not defending it per se but it’s entirely possible that analytics concluded: “this is best of all the negative equity options available “

— in a human level he had to go. It’s just how professional athletes function. He was dead man walking. He knew it. His teammates knew it.

DevilsLettuce

Walman is a failed acquisition?

TheGreatBigMac

He’s not a success story at this point.

OriginalPouzar

He was a big part of the team getting to game 6 of the SCF last season and was the team’s best d-man in this year’s playoffs (not saying much) after battling through injury and playing hurt (and poorly) all seasons – he did this on a cap hit under $4MM.

His extension now kicks in and, if can stay somewhat healthy, he’s worth $7MM for the next few seasons.

godot10

Yes, certainly at $7 million per season forever.

ArmchairGM

They spent a 1st acquiring Walman too. And the only reason they felt compelled to do so was because they walked Broberg at $4.6M (whom they received a 2nd for).

Broberg + 1st >>> Walman + 2nd.

Not to mention if they’d kept Broberg they could have traded Kulak, who apparently is worth a 2nd. Sell low, buy high.

Going forward:

Broberg at $8M >>> Walman at $7M.

Scungilli Slushy

A great summation of Holland’s prowess

Scungilli Slushy

Fine sir, higher end players get those things. Only lower end guys take lower shorter deals. Connor being Connor doesn’t count

OriginalPouzar

$7MM for 7 was not part of the trade.

Scungilli Slushy

When both are healthy he and Ek are tied #2, healthy being a bit of a problem

OriginalPouzar

Walman for last year and this year at under $4MM was FAR from failure – that was a fantastic acquisition. One can discuss the extension which still have every ability to be a fine contract for the next 3-4 years. Any semblance of health from Jake and he’s currently a $7MM player – he needs to stay healthy and, when he is hurt, not play injured as it effects his game.

Although most won’t agree, the sample size on Jarry is simply tiny and there is every chance that the trade works out fine and he’s value for $5MM the next two years. He’s a much better goalie than he showed as an Oiler, we know that. The way the Oilers played in front of him started the shitshow an then Jarry himself cratered. I expect a better team in front of him next season and a better Jarry.

ArmchairGM

Although most won’t agree, the sample size on Jarry is simply tiny and there is every chance that the trade works out fine and he’s value for $5MM the next two years.

The problem is, there’s no possible way the Oilers can go into training camp hoping Jarry bounces back, even if the odds are good. So now they have to go out and spend cap and assets to try to solve the goalie problem AGAIN, which are cap and assets that they could have used to improve another part of the roster.

So even if Jarry bounces back, they’ll already have duplicated him on the roster.

Bowman seems to spend most of his time solving problems that he created, mostly with worse and more costly solutions.

TravisTDK

Actually they can. Literally any goalie available is a hope they have a good season.

The goalies that tend to be consistent year in and out. For the most part are not available. Even Bobrovsky a 3 time Vézina winner and cup winner is notorious for having down seasons.

ArmchairGM

They can’t. The McDavid clock is ticking.

OriginalPouzar

Sure, the clock is ticking and there isn’t a goalie the Oilers can acquire that will be good enough if the team doesn’t commit to a better structure in front and, once they do that, and I expect it, I presume Jarry/Ingram or whoever, will be just fine.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t agree there is “no possible way”. I think Jarry is here and he will get every opportunity to earn the first start of the year (i.e. start the season as 1A).

I think the other goalie with either be Ingram or Cossa (or similar).

More and more we are seeing that most goalies are highly impacted by the structure in front of them. Lots and lots of goalies, good goalies, swing wildly from season to season. There are only a handful of elite goalies that don’t really have bad seasons and even the top goalies can look mediocre behind a bad team.

I don’t see any goalie they can get that is a lock to be, well, a lock. If the Oilers play a better structured game and commit nightly, like I expect with the superstars acknowledging they weren’t good enough this year, wanting to be “coached harder” and the new coach likely being that type of structure guy, I expect anyone from Jarry to Ingram to Cossa to Stuart Skinner to have a solid season.

TravisTDK

We get it. You’re emotional about the transactions that haven’t been home runs.

rev.hans

That is my understanding: that GMSB was looking at Jarry because analytics that looked at style of play made him a better fit for Oilers than Skinner. Woodley was one of those I understood to be saying that.
The thing that’s harder to measure is “mental toughness,” ability to let losses go, ability to win. Sometimes called “confidence.” I think it may be represented in WIN%, or WIN% after a loss, but only obliquely.

Reja

Jarry was good before he was injured I would say he was not a 100% when he came back. Jarry played excellent in the game we lost in Anaheim. I’m not a huge fan of Jarry but I do believe he can be top 10 when he’s healthy.

godot10

Skinner was bad and led the Oilers to two Stanley Cup finals.
Jarry was bad and couldn’t get the Penguins into the playoffs with a star-studded roster in front of him.

Reja

Yep I would have preferred 2 playoff runs with a gamer in Binnington. I don’t think we were ever doing business with Armstrong but Jordan has the playoff pedigree unlike Jarry-Ingram.

OriginalPouzar

Jarry was .909 in a .897 league at the time of trade this past season.

Jarry behind the same team structure Stu got likely gets to the same place.

OriginalPouzar

Bowman spoke yesterday about their analytics and how heavily unloved it is in everything they do and every decision they make, every day. Of course, he didn’t provide details and spoke from a high level.

I believe the org did make something like 3 hires in to the department recently. Don’t know anything about any of the individuals.

i agree that Bowman likely still uses the “gut feel” on some respect and I would suggest that is a positive and the eye test should be disregarded completely.

Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan

im assuming you meant heavily involved in every decision they make?

and that eye test should not be disregarded completely?

what you have written runs very contrary to your viewpoints from what i can ascertain from your x.

OriginalPouzar

Yes to both – phone posting, bad.

Fibonacci

Chris Johnston
@reporterchris

The International Ice Hockey Federation has reversed a previous decision to ban Russia from all 2026-27 competitions and will now make a decision on Russia’s eligibility in future IIHF tournaments on an “event-by-event basis.”

Lutefisk

Oligarchs 1
Ukraine 0

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Do you really think this blog can handle this post?

Lutefisk

What’s not to handle? If IIHF can decide on an event to event basis, I’m sure the blog can too.

Fibonacci

Surely folks can receive this as pertinent information without succumbing to the urge to play politics.

Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan

An interesting development, it is hard to call a tournament best on best without players from the second best league playing in it.

I hardly think it is fair to punish podkolzin, sergachev, vasilevsky and kucherov etc for the boneheaded politics of their govt.

These are hockey players not political figures.

Lutefisk

As if Latvia and Estonia care about the playing the tournament best.

OriginalPouzar

Zero doubt that, from a pure hockey (and hockey only) perspective, Russia is needed to make high end international tournaments full.

Reja

We played CCCP at the high point of the Cold War. Without Russia in the Olympics-4 Nations the winner should have an asterisk because it’s not the best on best.

Lutefisk

Interesting interpretation on this “pertinent information”. Considering the IIHF decision was based on events taking place in eastern Europe starting in 2022, what were the deciding factors for the IIHF to make such a decision?

Lutefisk

I certainly hope it wasn’t politics.

yycyegyvr

Everything rhymes with money.

OriginalPouzar

I believe that Russia’s participation in internanation IIHF sanctioned hockey events (Olympics, World Juniors, World Championships, etc., both mens and women’s side) is very pertinent to this hockey focussed blog.

godot10

Other sports federations have allowed Russians back individually and some with “teams” as long as they are not identified as Russian.

rev.hans

I like the idea of international competitions as being “above politics,” a place where nations in conflict can put those conflicts aside à wrestle for greatest on the mat, the field, the arena. I accept also that this is a naïve perspective. Summit 72 was an allegory for “our way (freedom)” vs “dictatorship. The 1936 Olympics were both a normalization of Nazi Germany, and an opportunity to repudiate its race dogma (Owens’ performances). Czechoslovak victory over the USSR after 1968 a strong political, as well as hockey, statement. Is there a Team Ukraine to compete against Team Russia, on ice? I’d love to see that. Much rather that than the bombs and missiles. But, of course, I am being naïve.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

It’s actually crazy how many former posters are in the NHL now. What an awesome place.

I miss when the math guys were still around. They were ruthless. I was too scared to post for years. They were a good check on my stupidity running rampant.

Bar_Qu

It s a good check against Dunning-Krueger when you have those types of minds around you. I’m better off for hanging around here & developing intellectual humility. It’s helped me be better at a lot of things, including working in my school. I’m much more open to suggestions bc I know people around me have great ideas that make things better.

meanashell11

Sort of reminds of the scene in Zero Dark 30 where the head of the CIA asks about the analyst who finds Bin Ladin and her boss says she’s really smart. The head of the CIA turns to him and says “We’re all smart here!”

rev.hans

À Golden Age of Math, on Lowetide? More. I want to hear more about the ruthlessness of these “math guys.” And also, what happened?

Scungilli Slushy

They were mostly folks who used high level math in their careers, or taught themselves things regular folk couldn’t, Sunny Mehta now with the Devils come to mind. Some like Dellow self taught and tried to push their envelopes with it but picked around the edges

Some were pretty hard on regular folks who couldn’t keep up with math and responded with the established norms about hockey as LT mentioned in his wrote up. Like clutch player or goalie, got debunked pretty hard. Some were arrogant and mean; and to me as is human nature were jockeying to be the gate keepers

One of the first guys to get hired was an Oilers fan and had an exceptional ability to frame things and explain in layman’s terms and I never came across anything other than good natured responses. Brilliant fella. Vic Ferrari otherwise known as Tim Barnes of the Caps

I jumped right in and went on to the other sites which could be pretty testy, it was around here at times. Way more than now. I think on the hardcore sites they found me irritating when I did comment bcs not a cool kid with numbers. As it turns out an awful lot of what was elevated to indisputable truth has fallen away, and was wrong. But people would treat things especially their babies as absolutes

The people who were more in number and could be nasty were early adopters who couldn’t create anything themselves numbers. Many weren’t like that, and a few people came up with basic stats just by thinking logically about it, like PDO, Fenwick etc

Vic Ferrari’s first one was Corsi, named after a former Oilers goalie who as a goalie coach went through each shot to determine how his guy did. Not everything is the goalies fault (imagine that) and he didn’t want to blame them if it was more a team thing

Hockey still functions as it always has. People that know hockey, like a coach or GM, can see what is going on play by play and would build their thoughts on the team and individuals

Stats help seeing trends and identifying good or bad in the big picture. Putting numbers to it is hard with public info, and Gary doesn’t want to release much data they have to the public

rev.hans

Thank you.
I’m particularly interested in those things that appear to be unmeasurable—like “clutch.” Or “fit.”
The notion that goalies are “voodoo” makes sense, but only if you include “scoring streaks” or “being snakebit” or “confidence” as equally voodoo.
I’m not sure there’s math for any of these, but some things —like WIN% after losses (for goalies) and WIN% in games 4,5,6,7 in a series are.
I’m also curious about the math behind “children under three/babies born” and player/goalie performance.
If you can point me towards people working on these kinds of metrics, thanks.
In the meantime, I find Woodley very helpful on making sense of goalie and team defensive metrics.

Scungilli Slushy

As for clutch, I thought that but the stats which are not complicated but timely to gather showed that it doesn’t repeat. There are a few guys that have done more than usual at the toughest times like Mr C Lemieux RIP

Most of that line of thought are memories of great years some folks had but didn’t always do

I’m not sure what sites are doing those things these days, that are public and free. I usually search and read things, and being a geezer remember ‘some’ things

rev.hans

Thanks

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