Since we have a little time before the breaking news event involving the Edmonton Oilers, it’s a good idea to take stock of the roster and to see where the holes are currently. The list below contains only signed contracts, and I’ll post RFA’s and UFA’s on a second list.
The holes are on right wing (some help internally with the free agents below) and I do think bringing in someone like Jordan Kyrou would be a fine idea. Adding Kasperi Kapanen to that group is also reasonable. I think you can go to war with the pivots and the portsiders. I don’t know that Mattias Janmark makes the club, it will depend on the new coach.
On defense, the left side is strong on veterans but we should be mindful of the Darnell Nurse rumours. I don’t think the Oilers would have enough left on the left side with Mattias Ekholm and Jake Wallman as the top two men at the posiiton. They are bona fide top four defensemen, Ekholm is exceptional. However, age and health are issues. The Oilers may be confident on Damien Carfagna or Atro Leppanen, but those two men haven’t played an NHL regular season game. If Nurse goes, someone has to be added, in my opinion.
The right side has Evan Bouchard, a supreme talent who hopefully will be completely recovered from the recent concussions by the fall. I like Ty Emberson on the third pair, your mileage may vary. Tristan Jarry is the starter, we’ll see about the backup in goal.
I can see all of Colton Dach, Owen Michaels and Spencer Stastney coming back among the RFA’s, and would count Connor Murphy as a strong candidate to return among the UFA’s. One could see Stan Bowman signing Max Jones, too. For me, Connor Ingram would be a lock to sign, but the Jarry acquisition appears to have put that idea to bed. Too bad. He looks like the better goaltender.
Roby Jarventie leaving and Maxim Berezkin staying in Russia may be a tell. When Max Jones got the call over Jarventie, the die was cast and the young winger signed in Europe. Berezkin didn’t come over. What does that mean? I think the organization sees the skill wingers for the future as Matt Savoie, Vasily Podkolzin, Zach Hyman and Ike Howard. The bottom six wingers are going to be big, and may include Colton Dach, Trent Frederic, Connor Clattenburg and Max Jones.
That’s the state of the roster at this time. I don’t think the team can get Jason Dickinson, maybe Bowman surprises. Count on Murpy and Dach from the free-agent list.
I love how HH just shows up and pretends that hours and hours of his previous dialog on this board doesn’t exist.
You got over Colorado rather quickly. I’m going to enjoy another summer of hot takes…
That recent Eberle comment was absolute gold. Keep them coming!
I’ll never mute the court jester.
Its always interesting that, when his fake facts are proven to be just that, as much as he’s on here (and I’m not saying that in the negative as I’m on here as much as anyone), he NEVER responds, ever. Just disappears and shows up the next day to carry on.
People talk about the coaching options more in terms of the experience and perceived personality of the candidates than about how they actually coach. There’s a major difference, though, between the most commonly mentioned names.
Cassidy has mostly used a form of 1-2-2. He preaches basically a zone defense, and it’s a very “goalie friendly” system. Which, y’know, kind of sounds like what we need. He’s reasonably progressive on offense. He line matches and makes in game adjustments. He seems to be on top of analytical feedback. His PP coaching has been all over the place with Vegas, but if there’s one thing we don’t have to worry about, it’s PP. He also has never had a McDavid for zone entries, and I think that would free up some things in his approach.
Peter Laviolette. FFS. He’s a career 1-3-1 guy who mostly has had some form of a LW lock forecheck. Seriously? Good luck. Todd McLellan is the closest stylistic match that we’re familiar with. But asking this version of the Oilers to do that? I mean, no. Good luck with that.
Craig Berube. hahahahahaha. North-south. Dump it in. Man on man defense. Dinosaur act. If you liked how a depleted Maple Leafs core reacted to it, then hire him, I guess.
Cassidy is the guy, of what’s apparently on offer. The main strike against him is how VGK wilted this season and slowly died down the stretch until the Torts emergency hire. Like a lot of these guys, he seems to have a short shelf life. But as many people have pointed out, we need a coach for right now, not the next five years.
How about Gallant?
What’s his preferred style of play?
It’s not clear what Gallant’s health situation is, far as I know, following him having to stop with Shanghai with heart/blood pressure trouble in January. I haven’t seen anything real suggesting he’s on teams’ radars or that he’s well enough to try to resume coaching, but it’s not like I’m really up on it. I remember a LeBrun report after he quit and went back to PEI saying he was recovering and hadn’t given up hope of returning to the NHL. If there’s been anything of note since I’ve missed it.
Of the most mentioned three, he’s most like Cassidy. He has generally used a 1-2-2 and zone defense. Like Cassidy, he’s a very detail oriented and apparently responsive coach. Like Cassidy, or even moreso than Cassidy, he has had a short shelf life. Good first years. Kicked to the curb (almost literally, when Vegas fired him) not too long after. Dunno if he’s a thing or just something people have decided to spitball about.
Chicago Blackhawks
@NHLBlackhawks
On behalf of the Wirtz family and Chicago Blackhawks organization, we mourn the passing of Dennis Hull.
we extend our deepest condolences.
The Hull family DNA are collectively the best goal scorers there ever will be.
US hockey history
I hope we get a coach that believes in rolling the lines. We had it in Woody early on then poof he’s not rolling lines he’s letting the chosen get all the puck hog minutes. We had a juggernaut offensively and then the strategy shifted. I remember when Leon-Connor were automatic in OT now they look so bland. This team needs an injection of new life. Start giving players a role if they hold up to it you give them extra minutes. Enough of overplaying Connor-Leon they aren’t Celebrini age. Let’s get linemates for Frederic and form a line with identity-purpose. We always had the star players but it’s the role players that get you past 4 teams all with different game plans.
Jeff Hoffman out there making us believe we all could have made it.
The strategy since Hoffman was removed as the true closer had been working. They consider Varland the highest leverage guy and he was put in to face 2-4 in the 8th. This has worked most of the time for the last month. Not tonight.
Oops sorry I didn’t know he was still a restricted free agent.
Why would Schneider go with Varland in the 8th and Hoffman in the 9th? I understand trying to get Hoffman going but you need W’s when your over a 1/3 into the season under 500 against a divisional rival.
Since Hoffman was removed as the true closer had been working. They consider Varland the highest leverage guy and he was put in to face 2-4 in the 8th. This has worked most of the time for the last month. Not tonight.
5-1 lead if your so worried that Hoffman would screw up then let Varland pitch the 9th. I think Hoffman needs to be put on a bus to buffalo and left there until he can find the strike zone of 5 batters in a row.
I don’t even know what you first sentence means.
He’s cooked in Toronto. Pitchers get DFA’d and then rebuild their careers, and you’re never out of the game until the Angels give up on you. For his own good, he needs to move on. Poor guy. Closers live a tough life.
Wonder if Bowman brings in Kirby.
Nuge/Samanski/Kapanen
Dach/Dach/Goose(Frederic)
Bottom 6.
He’s RFA coming off 3.36M, probably not suited to 4C
Probably not yet Bowman is the man that drafted him to the big show and reacquired his brother who he also drafted.
His numbers do suggest he wouldn’t play higher then 4C currently on a contender.
This made me Laugh! thank you.
I think he could be had with a family friendly contract. Imagine having the 2 Dach on a line with Frederic-Jones-Clattenburg. The days of nobodies targeting Connor-Leon-Bouchard would definitely happen less and less. Bowman isn’t dumb he’s loading up a bottom 6 that is big-skilled-tough-have an edge. Most of the winners of the last 25 Cups have the same theme which is functional toughness with several players playing on the edge.
I presume he is not qualified by the Habs at, I believe, $4MM.
He obviously has the pedigree both him and his bother being drafted by Bowman. He’s had a lot of injuries with the style of play that makes him effective. I do believe him and his brother would be 2/3 of an above water bottom 6 that could handle the minutes. What do you think Bowman can sign him for?
That’s an interesting name. Outside the box. Kirby has had significant knee problems but if he’s had any improvement in that he’d maybe worth the risk at a cheap number
That’s a $10 million 4th line… and I like it!
For those who are worried about Bowman and how the org is operating, if you don’t listen to Oilers Now you should. His last chat with Bob has a lot in it. They are pushing to be as progressive as they can, and have a lot of custom tools for analytics
Bowman is trying to create a culture where instead of ignoring the stats dept (which Bob says was the deal pre-Bowman) he wants people thinking outside of the box. Off the wall is welcome, apparently Parkatti is always bring things to him. Push forward to not fall behind
Doesn’t mean mistakes won’t be made, but its’ been a long time coming considering as said it all started in their own back yard with many Oiler fans at the forefront
A lot of what Bowman has said in the past year or two sounds to me like he is trying to do things the right way. I’d argue he’s still open to growing as a GM, which is good if it helps him recognize & address his blind spots. More than a lot of GMs do imo.
He said he needed to get to know the people before moving ahead, they have been working on it since he started, and he brought innovation up to Jackson when he was interviewing I believe
Parkatti got promoted and that’s a tell.
I presume he make some bets that paid off which has bolstered the orgs confidence in analytics.
Bowman said he had a background in it. I don’t think he needed convincing of it’s importance, that was the dusty G&RB book gang
I heard it too it was a great interview. I would argue that as much as this management group needs to listen to the stats people more they need to scout players for play style, culture fit, work ethic etc..
The hockey stats community has minimized culture, compete etc as long as ive followed it but they sure do seem to value it in Carolina. Brindamour says the one non negotiable to be in the Canes org is you work your ass off every day.
This is true, there needs to be a personal side to the numbers side, which it seems they should work on. But they are adding all the time, I think SB is aware of what hasn’t worked
All hat. No cattle.
You can’t bullshit a bullshitter.
Show your work. Just not liking some and being obsessed with others isn’t constructive or something to debate
I think it was Rishaug who was critical of no goalie department, and Bob agreed.
Any Nurse trade is highly likely to end in disappointment.
Those that celebrate the trade will quickly turn on the incoming player and then Bowman for making a poor trade. Or using the cap space poorly. Or failing to plan when Ekholm is holding down 3rd pair minutes.
Its high risk trade.
And one of the biggest shortcomings of the Oilers has been their lack of pushback in the corners and in the games that really matter.
I also sense a style shift coming for the 26/27 Oilers. I mean can they really roll out the same thing?
So I do not see a successful Nurse trade, but also I see what he brings is something the team needs more of, not less. I will predict his ice time is again in top 31 in the league, meaning number 1 defenceman in regard to player utilization.
Agreed. If they were able to find a younger LD that had some game and toughness that might work. That could step up if needed, sort of like what Raddysh did for Tampa. Not flashy, just rounded and capable
Still Nurse hasn’t used his physicality much in a while. I have been thinking he might need to be careful regarding concussions or something. It should be what he turns to when he’s not playing well enough, and he doesn’t
Presuming the Oilers get Cassidy (or Peter L, or similar), I expect the team structure and overall player will be the best we’ve seen it since the 2024 players and during the 24-3 stretch that season.
Presuming no issues with Bouchard, this team will be coming to camp fully healthy, after having a 5 plus month off-season, fully rested and fully re-charged, with the superstars having spoken about personally not being good enough as 2-way players last season and wanting to be coached harder with a renewed sense of give as shit and respect for the regular season and a coach that coaches high end structure and holds players account.
The year end media shows the mental switch flipped in McDavid and Drai – they are going to to lead this team to their best regular season of the era – playoffs are always a crapshoot.
Hunting in the bargain bin, Noah Philp and Raphael Lavoie are free agents. Any interest?
I haven’t seen Philp play in a while, but Lavoie no. The Oilers need to be a fast team
Good hunting! But for me, pass on the shot and keep hunting.
Early early on I watched Lavoie and concluded he didn’t have the skating. The reports on his “shooting volume” were intriguing but not enough. Fine player but a tad short of talent for NHL.
Philp as well. Hoping for a new Derek Ryan. Smart player but not quite fast enough is what sticks with me.
I see Dach and Jones in these spots with greater chance of making the team.
— that LW group so far into the window for this team is pitifully underwhelming and requires lots of projection and squint of eyes hoping it works out
— RW an aging and more frequently injured Hyman and babkus
— nowhere close to a goalie tandem for a legit cup team.
— Obv McDrai great but the 3rd C seems to play mostly with them.
— D is solid but you’d like another emerging one that is building on a few seasons
— Man a lot of holes and wishing IMO.
— Lots of problems and mediocre surround McD and Bouch. Wow
I won’t be cheering for either team. I only cheer for the Oilers.
If Vegas wins maybe everybody will shut up about the BS that the Pacific was hot garbage.
Same. I’m leaning to spoil sport, and don’t want Vegas to win 2. Enough of the villains winning Cups. The Canes have been hanging around a long time so that is more tolerable. I was never a big Hall fan so that doesn’t sway me much, and I don’t think he has any love lost for Edmonton. I was a huge Doug Weight fan, and that made ’06 gross
The Knights won the division with 17 OTLs, the division was hot garbage, a playoff hot run doesn’t change that.
Vegas would not have made the playoffs in the EC…never mind the Oilers, Ducks Mammoth or Kings.
Every time I hear Holloway’s name (and btw he scored a beauty on a snipe), a shiver runs down my spine and anger begins to rise. Blunder of the decade.
I was reminded of a media members take on the offer sheets today. Management didnt take nearly enough heat for the way that was handled.
Bottom line on Oilers not matching on young Broberg and Holloway: if veterans like Henrique are taking discounts to resign here to win Cup kids with very little resume can’t be overpaid
That’s why you go long on the kids to soften that comparison.
You gotta play with the balls like the company likes if you want to enjoy access!!
Turns out the Blues underpaid Broberg and Holloway on the offer sheets.
The veterans already had earned enough money in the NHL to have their futures secured.
I get angry at whoever signed Jackson. Not sure who that is, so just angry at the org.
Jackson goes off the board to hire new guy Knoblauch. Jackson is too smart to look at potential Stanley coaches, he wants to be the man who identified the up and comer. Almost worked Ill give him that; Knobloch had some tricks and adjustments but ran out of experience. Makes me wonder how much the other coach’s were contributing, and how much was just roster peaking as well.
Then Jackson goes off the board again with Bowman. No competition. Looks like an old buddy hire, I’ll reinstate you, and you will be eternally grateful. The opposite of an up and comer but smacks of smartest man in the room thinking.
Then Jackson says no problem, i got the free agent signings all worked out, ill do this myself.
Meanwhile Holland seems to have disengaged and the rift allow two offer sheets. Holloway stated Oilers never even showed up to have talks! Now Jackson doesn’t know what to do, and with no ties to either Jackson or Bowman, both Broberg and Holloway were sent packing.
This year Jackson is oblivious to the risk of losing his experienced assistant coaches and gives out an extension to Knoblauch who was in the middle of an awful start to the year, and I guess Jackson didnt want to rn the risk of Knoblauch getting away.
Jackson A-bombed this team. Though Knob was A+ for exactly 1.5000 postseasons.
And 0.75ish of one regular season.
K*tz
Yup, totally agree. The upper house has failed us all. Hope this new attitude towards fancy-stats is real, and if the entire organization takes heed maybe some real progress can take hold. It’s my guess that the owner hired JJ… gotta make an example of him and send him packing posthaste.
Richest franchise in the NHL, time to spend wisely.
Holloway with a goal and an assist as Canada takes a 2-1 lead over Finland in the 1st period.
The backhand flip pass by Celebrini that hit Holloway right on the tape for a breakaway was a wonder.
What could have been.
We know the chances you post this if it was any player other than Holloway are zero.
So now you’re insisting ex-Oilers can no longer be mentioned.
Sad.
I am pointing out a fact that your primary purpose on this site find, or make up, something that is negative for Oilers fans – on an Oilers’ fan blog.
Doing that is your primary personal activity in life given how much time you spend doin it.
You calling OP sad is hilarious.
Making up Eberle’s stats to try to push your narrative was pretty sad.
Oilers can only trade for Kyrou if they divest themselves of Nurse or Frederic.
Frederic was born and raised in DTF St Louis.
STL is in the process of divesting itself from boat anchors….not adding them.
Of all the brilliant minds who have contributed to the Oilersphere over the last two decades, somehow you’ve found a niche where your opinions are valued the least.
DSF? In a scorecard of valued members of the community you hold sole position of DFL.
Seriously, he’s not wrong and stop trying to trade Nurse, do you honestly think Nurse would accept a trade to St.Louis? Seriously…
Fact remains you would need to unload one of those contracts to take on Kyrou’s.
I never suggested a Nurse trade to STL. I believe there’s a decent chance Nurse gets traded, however some dismiss it as an impossibility.
Ok, then do Walman or Bouchard. Stop trying to trade Nurse, it isn’t happening unless Nurse wants it too.
NEVER stop trying to trade Nurse.
We know what you think, you don’t have to comment on every single post.
What’s wrong with St. Louise that makes you so sure Nurse wouldn’t go there?
So…..You think Nurse will accept a trade to a non-playoff team that’s aging out….
St. Louis is not aging out. They have one of the youngest cores in the NHL.
See? Greatest team ever with the most handsome, quotable, best-dressed GM who ever lived.
Don’t forget to work the balls.
I don’t know what Nurse thinks, but you make definitive statements like you know what he thinks. You also seem pretty angry over anyone suggesting a Nurse trade.
I presume that if Nurse waives he would have maybe 1-3 teams he is willing to waive for.
A Nurse trade would/will be very hard given the negative vale without retainment plus the likely tiny amount of teams he’s agree to accept a trade to (I presume) – who knows if any of them will even have interest, right?
St. Louis wants to trade everyone over 27 away.
Do they?
Is that what Armstrong told you?
God, you are tiresome.
St Louis is the greatest team in the history of great.
Just ask Go Dott.
Yeah…the Blues are trying to trade Parayko so they can spend an extra $3 million on Nurse.
Have you noticed that Broberg and Cam Fowler anchor their LD?
And Frederic is likely the most overpaid 4th liner in the league,
He makes about the same as all 3 Blues 4th line together.
I’d suggest you read before you comment but you’ve been ignoring that feedback going on two decades.
It is technically possible to trade for Kyrou without trading Nurse or Fredrick.
https://puckgm.puckpedia.com/rosters/1564542
It’s technically possible to do almost any trade, including moving The Glimmer Twins, but is it probable?
The moves above are all reasonable and plausible. They aren’t likely because Bowman is invested in Howard and Jarry (Jarry doesn’t need to be traded get Kyrou either).
STL wants a 1st round pick+ THIS YEAR for Kyrou and are talking to SJS about trading up to get #2.
You’re massively overrating Howard in your scenario.
I would hope that Bowman wouldn’t trade Howard and a 1st for Kyrou.
Yea I think it’s too much but it’s possible.
Why would they trade the Iceman?
Giving a leperchaun a reach around at the top of the eiffell tower:
technically possible or totally feasible or likely more probable than kyrou for beef jerkey and he just needs to play 2RW, 2 RHD, 4C to ice fully cap compliant roster?
Maybe Frederic waives for STL but I don’t think teams are generally in the business of acquiring players based on birth location – I think that’s mainly a fan narrative, right.
I’ve always tried to tell myself that the frequency of good “spruce grove, st albert, sherwood park” boys is simply a lot of good hockey players and has never really heavily factored in player decisions…ah joke fail i thought o’sullivan was from here.
**only reason still leavimg comment is link…that is actualy pretty interesting to play around in**
https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/city/
IMHO that line up doesn’t make the grade.
The problem with that line up is you’re asking McDavid and Draisaitl to carry the team again…
That a very small team as well.
It isn’t a lineup. It’s the state of the current roster before summer procurement.
Very small? 17 names on that board, two are under 6’…
Play small and you know what I meant.
So Bereyozkin doesn’t sign. Paul Fischer gonna be a free agent at the end of next season. Maybe Stan isn’t quite as good at the youtts as we thought
I still don’t think it’s official that Berezkin isn’t signing. From what I know, this is from his European agent and nothing “official”. He also has a North American agent (Dan Millstone) and, while I don’t know how it works in these cases, I’m guessing the interests of the two agents are not necessarily aligned.
I also don’t close any doors on Paul Fischer. We know he’s a Bowman guy (a targeted add) and perhaps the team, the player or both simply think he needs that senior year – he doesn’t become a UFA until next August and could sign with Edmonton in the spring and burn a year and join the org.
There is a path for him here.
Waste of a pick, waste of time.
Never, ever draft a russian.
And while we’re at it; never, ever, ever draft from the Q.
— I seem to get push back on this but this Stanley Cup final will again identify a worthy winner that shares one or more of the following attributes.
Montreal would have been an anomaly: teams that in recent years haven’t made the playoffs for a number of years or just one appearance loss in first round don’t win cups (unless with hindsight it’s the start of multiple cup runs over a bunch of years
— Carolina and Vegas are typically the teams that win:
1) have won a cup recently with same core
2) have had multiple runs in playoffs over a few seasons with the same core
3) have future HoF players
— It’s really hard to win a Cup. It’s neat that almost always the Cup winner works up to it over a few seasons.
You’re missing a GM who puts value above loyalty as well.
Kinger I’m having trouble thinking of which Canes are future HoF players
And when they recently won the Cup with the same core.
I believe he means 1 or 2 or 3. Not all 3. They only fall into #2
— the Canes fit into the bucket of “having gone deep into playoffs for a bunch of years”
— those 3 things aren’t cumulative: Cup winners have one or more of them. If none generally do not pass GO
— Teams don’t come out of nowhere and win the Cup very often.
— Vegas has recently won a Cup with same core (or trades to the core)
— it’s weird to me that so many don’t see that this is the formula and don’t look attributes of previous Cup winners to recognize this is what makes the Stanley Cup great in identifying worthy champions
— Teams like Montreal who lost in first round last year and didn’t make playoffs many years prior just don’t win cups
— Cup winners invariably have some or all of multiple recent playoff experience over a number years, HoF cores or wins multiple Cups with a core (or makes trades from a core and wins multiple)
— that’s it. You don’t win Cups unless you have one or more of those criteria
— Habs don’t fit (unless they won this year and won more after)
— each year there are a half dozen or so teams that truly have the attributes of Cup winners.
I agree with all of this, the HoF part made me think what am I missing
I’m here for the Mitch bringing the Cup home parade, even if it means the LVGKs (spits) win.
You’re in the wrong place.
Go back to Pig Town… or Hog Town or whatever you call that sad sack of a city.
Gotta pull for Carolina, Vegas is odious, and they should be rewarded for building and making moves the right way, class organization there even though they’re hated former Cup Final rivals.
With all the talk about him being a non-physical, perimeter player who doesn’t shine in the playoffs, I’m leaning toward the first part of your phrase (emphasis mine in quote) as being the crucial part.
I’m off to plant my physical and speedy winger with soft hands and a nose for the net tree. And light a candle.
Yeah i haven’t ever invested much attention…just in games against blues sure he’s produced in some of them but not in a notable difference level or just hard to play against physically type manner.
Nurse for a Tom Wilson type makes a much more sensible target then Tall Jeff “Kyrou” Skinner imo.
I want old Mudcrutch and Taylor Hall to win the Cup. 20 years since 2006, so I hold no ill will towards the Canes.
Scuttlebutt from the West Coast is that Tom Dundon (owner of the Canes (and Trailblazers now)) is notoriously cheap.
One of the reasons that the Rantanens and Guentzels of the world, and most high end FAs, don’t sign may have to do with the organization’s unwillingness to spend money on the off ice things.
I’ll cheer for the Vegas GiftedCupsFromTheStart over those who don’t understand you don’t have to be a dick to understand math and hockey. Or that shot attempts aren’t the story.
Either way – another undeserving southern fanbase who won’t care is about to win a title. This league is trying to become a TV show.
Watching the ‘24 victory in FLA not even cause a traffic jam or a few tears of joy will always stay with me.
At least I’ll have pinned Carter Hart’s taking a team to a title, and some here will have to reckon with the fact that you absolutely can (and should) replace a coach at literally any juncture and it can make a big difference.
He was never a dick to me. Neither were PDO, Fenwick, or WG.
Maybe it was your approach to the discussions rather than a measure of how they treat people?
MC had a known reputation. He was called out on it many times by many people. It never changed. At least not online. Maybe a persona – but that’s all we’ve got to go on. He had his chance.
No one’s a dick to you, Lois. And you’ve earned a good reputation over a long and consistent presence.
Some of the stats folks were definitely abrasive and condescending with people on Twitter, as were the old school writers/ sports fans they were usually arguing with. I always thought it was a a strange way to try to get people to listen or agree with with you. It was pretty toxic.
that being said. Im still cheering for the canes. Tulsky seems like a nice guy and it’s awesome to see Taylor Hall doing well on a deep run.
Things weren’t ‘so’ bad here, but elsewhere if you didn’t follow the vibe exactly a few of them were not very nice. Really condescending, and as is the way, never said a peep after their fails showed up
A few things that were floated were clearly wrong by simple logic, no math needed. I took some arrows before they all got jobs and the stats web went dark. And not being a person that uses math professionally as most of them did, I didn’t come in hot either
Several of the aforementioned never used math professionally. Many of the ideas of the early analytics period were not based on solid data sets or scientific quantitative analysis. And certainly a lot of this approach continues to this day. There is an awful lot of pretending that insignificant results from small samples are significant, and that random numbers are predictive. We have seen the successes of salesmen, who were neither data scientists or hockeymen, in an arena where some of the more serious data scientists fell to the wayside, because quite literally a large chunk of analytics is not real and is just guessing.
True, but the main fellows creating did. Dellow worked his way in, over his head trying to do stats beyond basics I thought
There’s a reason why hockey analytics emerged from a group of amateurs trying to emulate Money Ball and not from a professional analytics group employing data scientists. A lot of the tenets simply do not hold up to scientific scrutiny. The basis isn’t scientific. There were a few engineers who built tools. But the quantitative aspect is weak. The real business is in the creation of numbers that appear to offer a competitive advantage. That the numbers do not actually offer advantages presented is immaterial. Several of the serious scientists who contributed to blogs simply have not had success in hockey analytics either by their choices or the choices of others.
I agree, but would say that Barnes and Mehta for example had some pretty serious math chops and once interested learned what they needed to. Both are also in my opinion in a room full of scientists still likely at the top of the IQ range
I read as much as I could from them before gone. I’m no genius, but feel that I can tell when a person is operating on a different level than most others in what they write, or when I talk to them. I once had a young fellow work for me that I’m sure thought he was at genius level. What he had was a pretty high IQ and a photographic memory, not the same thing. The analytic deeper thinking part was not higher than other smart people – the hardest thing
I would add that data scientists and statisticians are of course trained for it, but I’m not convinced that means they are necessarily that good at it. It’s really complicated. They get an awful lot wrong across many fields
When public Dellow showed his work and was one hundred percent up front both about how he got there and, later, where he might effed up.
One stat study I’m pretty sure Dellow did was to prove faceoffs don’t really matter. He was able to put numbers to it, but of course it’s not true. I liked that Vic Ferrari said that he thought many GMs and coaches were smart and knew what they were doing
Mistakes are made as in any endeavour, but especially nowadays running billion dollar businesses or best league in the world teams, always with 15 balls in the air, isn’t for people that aren’t competent or better
Not to mention the fact that for most of the highly-skilled, there are both more interesting/fulfilling and/or more financially rewarding ways to use this skill than a mostly-closed-shop sport that rewards simply hanging around a long time in most cases.
I’m right there with you. While I’ll cheer for neither, I could absolutely never root for CAR (*spits) to win another Cup. F them.
They can have their college football and especially basketball, which is what they actually care about. I’m thankful for their tailgating and their hospitality – but they’re not hockey fans, and this will not matter to millions, like it would in 20+ other markets, not just ours.
I dunno. Kinda full circle. Hall is the new Weight.
From a TV ratings standpoint, the NHL couldn’t have a much worse Stanley CUP final that this one.
Raleigh is ranked 27th in US TV markets while Vegas is at 42.
Since Canadians will be mostly tuned out, it will be very difficult to attract a substantial audience in the summer heat stateside.
Thank the commissioner, he can reap what he sowed.
The league has already banked the TV rights loot.
It’s the TV providers that suffer.
True enough, but it was the commish that put teams where they never should have been.
I don’t agree with this comment at all. Both routinely fill their stadiums and have great atmospheres.
That’s fine. I’ve been to finals in both Sunrise and Raleigh. I’ve also been around the Vegas hockey folk.
They don’t care 100th as much as the top markets. Comparing them to MTL or us or Philly or Buffalo winning a finals would be lunacy.
Both teams’ fan base cares.
Both fan bases “deserve” a Cup (whatever that means).
Just because their fan bases aren’t as large as others doesn’t change this.
Not refuting this statement – fanning is fanning – but isn’t CAR like $5 a seat with free parking and CostCo-priced hotdogs (only kinda kidding).
I never had dealings with Dellow or Tulsky, but I knew Dennis from the early days of OilFans (late 90’s) and communicated sporadically with him for about a decade afterward. I will be genuinely happy for him if Carolina wins.
Also, intercourse the Vegans.
Me too. I am thrilled for Tulsky, Dellow and Dennis. The Oilers had an edge on analytics because it was built in their own backyard and they ignored it. You reap what you sow.
Wait, are you and Tarkus referring to “Dennis” who posted here regularly? He got picked up by Carolina? That’s amazing!! That guy was great and taught me a lot (and made me laugh frequently too)
The very same. Dennis is a very bright fellow, wicked sense of humour too. I also learned a lot from him.
Did all 3 work in the Edm area or just Dellow?
I haven’t posted in ages but this thread compelled me to jump back in, if only for a moment.
Lois, I’m right there with you. Taylor and Tyler (I know, I know) are the reasons why I’m cheering for the Canes; Taylor because he’s this year’s model of Doug Weight and Tyler because… well, he’s really put in the work.
@LMHF#1, I appreciate that all you really have to go by is Tyler’s online persona, which definitely skewed abrasive, but having had the pleasure of getting to know him personally back in the day, it wasn’t always like that. Tyler hosted several “Toronto-based Oilers Blogger” nights at his old condo to watch the late games on the CBC and even popped into a Baby Oilers vs. Marlies game or two when the Toronto folks would get together for prospect reports. He was much warmer and more gracious in the real world but never shied away from a good debate and was always strong and assertive in his points.
The first (and second) waves of those bloggers are people I can honestly say I owe my career to – when I pivoted from my early research career and into sport research, it was the nerds vs. MSM hockey men debate that I covered. So many of those types were willing to share their processes, their intentions and their ideas with me for that first big academic publication I wrote. Tyler wasn’t able to participate (NDAs were signed post-Oilers), but for those rejecting those folks because of their personalities, getting to know many of them personally showed a very different side – they were fighting an uphill battle in very early days, recognizing as well that their stats were much more descriptive than predictive but hoping to make breakthroughs into more accurate and more predictive models. Many have and many of their careers have taken off in ways I don’t think any of us from those early days could have imagined. I’m thrilled for Tyler just to be at this stage. It’s massive and it shows just how much talent and creativity our fanbase had in its own backyard that the organization couldn’t (or wouldn’t) leverage during the DoD.
Can buy-out cap hits be traded? Can the Oilers include the cap hit from buying out Campbell be traded?
No, but that should be on the next cba.
Next CBA will be interesting with all the cap boosts lots of teams are stuck with bad contracts, could see another compliance buyout period or even better a mechanism to release contracts like in other major sports. Doubt the PA would go for NFL style non-guaranteed contracts but a MLB style releasing team has to pay contract until player signs somewhere else would be ideal.
Yes, it’s far too one sided for the players. If they can’t live up to their contracts there should be a reasonable way out for teams. The sport would benefit
The NHL is so financially successful right now- crazy revenues, crazy team valuations, etc. – I don’t see any major changes to this structure (unless there is a material change in the economics of the league – we are many years away from needing a new CBA).
Edit: This post is mostly a reply to russ’ post.
The Great Irony for 2026 playoffs. Mitch Marner or Taylor Hall are front runners to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.
For me it’s crazy that Carter Hart isn’t the front runner.
I love this for Hall, I remember his draft day how in addition to his obvious speed and skill everyone raved about what a gamer be was and Wong championship MVPs at every level he’d ever played and all of the winner intangibles that went with that, so it is cool seeing it possibly come to fruition finally for him all these years later. Go Hallsie!
He’s certainly revived his career with the Canes.
Two time memorial cup MVP! A shame we never got to see him go on a run here. There was no other way to get a right shot D?
I’m pretty sure it was more about young Taylor than anything
Already said this higher up but Taylor is the new Dougie.
It takes a team. Jeff Marek likes repeating an Adam Oates commentary about Marner in Toronto vs. Marner in Vegas.
In Toronto, Marner was expected to do everything for everyone, including himself. In Vegas, there is more than one guy expected to do the heavy lifting. It is easier to be “the guy” on a complete team.
Sort of ditto for when Hall was in Edmonton. In Carolina, he is just a guy on a complete team.
I wish the Oilers could somehow get Oates involved with the team
Now tell us about the blues!
I see Ingram or Cossa in a tandem with Jarry to start the season.
Next season is about the incumbents simply playing better – re-setting, resting and properly gaining and coming in to the regular season with a renewed sense of urgency and respecting the regular season – this comes with a commitment to better structure, the entire team and most individuals.
If they do that, Jarry and the tending will be just fine.
If they don’t do it, they aren’t good enough and no goalie outside of the elite 4-5 would make a difference.
1A. Jarry
1A/B. Ingram and or Cossa
1B/3rd head. 1 of better end of young high potential goalies any team tries to sneak through waivers
Worth the roster slot investment to start season IMO
I’m not sure Cossa can be slotted as an NHL goalie at the moment. It’s too bad Ungar isn’t a little taller, he has a better SV% history, although limited AHL games
They probably both deserve a chance. Cossa might be closer and much taller.
What kind of logic is this?
Ungar has the better historical SV% but because he’s not as tall as the lesser goalie we’ll go with the lesser goalie?
Unfortunately the logic of most NHL teams and the Oilers I’ve heard
I think you can bet on Ingram getting a $5M+ offer from someone in UFA, the goalie market has dried up as we know to our chagrin.
I don’t think he get anything close to $5MM per on the market.
The Oilers essentially have 3 2LD (although Ek had another strong 1RD season beside Bouchard.
They have an elite 1RD and a strong defensive 3D. Connor Murphy makes so much sense and I think he signs in the $4.5MM. If he doesn’t, well, Jake Walman did have a strong end to 2025 playing 2RD with Nurse. I don’t think it’s a terrible idea as I think his poor play last season was primarily due to playing hurt and playing fitness. Of course, injuries likely to continue to be a thing but he is a top 4 D all day when not playing through injury.
Is Kesselring a viable 2RD backup plan?
I wonder if the decision is Walman or Murphy with an unloading of Walman. Injuries have to be a concern for the long term viability of Walman.
I hope straight up if money to add luxury say yes to it spent on defence depth.
Easier to find brace of bottom 6 forwards who can meet or over perform lower contracts.
I might have time for that line of thought. Risk far higher on the Walman side but you gotta think he has some value, especially for cap rich teams looking to bolster their blue.
When Walman is healthy I believe he is a legit 3D and worth $7MM, however, of course, he’s been hurt a ton and, when he plays though, like he did last season, we see how his play drops off.
With that said, I don’t see him traded (or even them overtly trying to) – he also has a NMC on his current existing deal so those talking about trading him before his clause kicks in on July 1 are mistaken,
I know I am poo pooing every trade idea but I just don’t see a major trade – I don’t see any of Nurse, Walman, Jarry, Fred, etc. moved.
Kesselring might be a younger less expensive version of Murphy. But I do like Murphy as he settles Nurse down with his veteran demeanor. Not sure Kesselring would have the same effect. Though it might be time for Nurse to step up and be the defenseman he’s supposed to be. Maybe they could sign Dickinson instead with the money saved by not signing Murphy.
Maybe I missed it but I’ve yet to see Kesselring drop a winger on his ass when trying to burn outside…
Have you been watching every ARI/Utah and Buff games?
Not saying he’s been doing this but, if he has, would you be seeing it?
Got me. My viewings/impressions are dated.
Given Ekholm and Walman (who I think they like a lot) are injury prone so they need at the moment 3 top 4 LD. They can carry it another season and Nurse is likely out nest season. See if Walman can get through a year and go from there
Kesselring has one full NHL season under his belt and had a rough season, I don’t think he’s top 4 yet
Nurse seems to play well with Bouch, I would like to see that. Walman with Murphy and Eck playing 3LD to stay healthy and build up Emberson or whoever is 3RD. With Eck getting breaks on back to back games.
Funny I was catching up on Oilers Now and Bob asked MacT if he would play them together and without hesitating said no. He didn’t elaborate unfortunately
They have had success together in the past but, at this point, I think we are safe to say that Bouchard “floats alls boats” and pretty much everyone will play well with Bouch,
Shit, Kulak had unreal numbers with Bouchard in 150 minutes in the 2025 playoffs – Bouch turned Kulak in to a 1LD against playoff teams.
Ekholm isn’t injury prone – only missed material games once as an Oiler (and played 65 that season) and played all 82 last year (with great results).
I do acknowledge his age and likelihood of future injury but just wanted to note that I don’t think he’s injury prone.
You’re right he doesn’t miss many games, but he does get limited by nagging things and he’s a lot less effective then
Seems right but his results last season were impeccable and legit top pairing.
MK was also limited in games played due to a high ankle sprain, and was a HS in the playoffs.
These should actually limit his trade value, and BUF will have a cap crunch to resign core players, which might make him available for a reasonable cost.
Not sure if the offensive/defensive tradeoff vs Murphy is worth it, especially given we know Nurse-Murphy is a quality tandem. On the other hand, there’s legitimate upside worth considering.
He’s got tools but I think the Oilers need solid defenders, not sure he’s that
I think Dach is a lock to me back – RFA, easy qualify and sign and I think he is 4LW over Janmark.
I’m not sure what the plan is with Janny – he was very poor last season, he regressed in his 2-way game to go along with the black hole of offence. Of course, we learned he was playing hurt. I presume they look to move him given he’s overcapped but maybe not? I want Dach in the lineup.
Nuge at 3C makes so much sense now but it has for a while and has never happened. We’ll see what the new coach does.
I lock Howard in to the lineup – hopefully he plays with Drai and Podz – he should excel on that line and Drai will love his ability to score.
In a pure offense ice tilted version with line trickery focused on getting it out against lesser comp version of a mcdavid line -> i’d like to see dach on LW for a run somewhere in season. With clear mcdavid instructions of either get clean into zone under possession, if you can, with wingers still in motion and someone shoot it…or resistance that might cause offside dump it in without question. Hyman/dach crash net or get puck back every shift. There is as few as possible entries where wingers are standing flat footed at blue line this is the way.
I’ll just say don’t count Janmark out.
Surely we can upgrade on a 33 year old depth forward who’s scored 7 goals in his last 3 regular seasons? And yes, I acknowledge he was injured for a large part of the third one…
I don’t see how anyone could honestly argue against this
I don’t argue against it – I think the org values Janmark more than most of us.
It’s a contract year for him, he’s been surgically repaired and he probably wants to continue playing hockey. He will be motivated to prove he’s not washed up just yet Beverly.
I would hope he’s always motivated to play his best.
I’m just not sure he has more to give – he is who he is and he’s aging and breaking down.
I don’t think Nuge can handle C full time at this point. I know it makes theoretical sense, but does he have the wheels for it at 33 – he was never fast? His defensive game is inconsistent at wing but maybe that’s a team related thing
I think we’re gonna find out. If it goes poorly we get Samanski as 3C and Nuge back to LW should swap Janmark for Lazar then so we have backup cover at 4C.
I like Dach & Dickinson. Nuge can play 3LW with Dickinson at center.
I don’t see Dickinson being signed by the Oilers.
There isn’t a better suited 3c for Edmonton in free agency or in the system, there’s a hole to fill. Samanski is still cutting his teeth and better suited for the fourth line at this time. Signing Dickinson for a couple more years would be a wise move.
I don’t disagree but the cap is the cap and I think he’ll be too expensive (and not value for cap hit and the Oilers have Nuge and I am one that thinks he can be 3C.
That is too bad. A solid 3 C is essential, I am having trouble seeing Nuge as that. I suppose with the right wingers he might be. But as usual my thoughts are different on the third line than many. I don’t see it being an offensive outscoring line that would make the team stronger, I think it has to be a line that can score but most importantly can be on the ice against any other line
That is how Connor and Leon play less. Dickinson with the right wingers has done not only that, but shut down top lines, and is a PK anchor
Its tought for me to see Nuge not outscore as 3C it given reasonable wingers – Nuge has his limitations but he’s still a reasonable defensive player and has good hands and skill – playing against bottom six comp, which he’s never really done…….
Same. You secure that asset imo.
Why isn’t Connor Ungar mentioned as a re-sign option? He hasn’t been under a .900 save percentage since 2019!🤔
Ungar seems to be the type of goaltender that we always talk about claiming from other teams yet he’s in our organization and he’s not getting a full opportunity. Is it his size?
I think it is that. His numbers say he’s ready for an NHL shot if he stays that good at the AHL level
I would suggest numbers show he’s ready for a full time AHL split shot.
I have said for a while that I’m not positive they qualify and re-sign him. I hope they do but I don’t see them going with two young guys in Bako and they have Tomkins under contract who I think they want in Bako (plus Jonsson and Day).
The Oilers have several goalies under contract. I’d love to see Ungar signed, but it isn’t guaranteed and Bowman has a full boat of stoppers.
On the right side I see the depth chart as
Hyman
xxxxx (Savoie if Howard gets 1LW)
Frederic
Michaels
Raty
I would keep the Dach Samanski Frederic line together and look for something that rhymes for Nuge.
Kyrou would be great but Howard + a first is a dear price to pay.
Howard may have upped his value at the worlds. Teams might be asking about him.
Which IMO is good from an Oiler standpoint. But then Howard could have a breakout season in Edmonton and they might not need Kyrou. Who knows??
Kyrou had the same amount of goals as Savoie last season and 9 more points with considerable more PP time. He’s $8.1MM for term and STL is requiring full return value (perhaps over-value).
Yes, he has scored 30 a few times but there is so much risk in acquiring that player at full cap and full cost.
Howard on his ELC is almost untreatable for me as we need value contracts and players with years of runway ahead of them.
Completely agree. If one of them pops and forces their way up the line-up then great!
Posted mistakenly before today’s thread appeared.
When the canes got over the layover man alive that was like borg level resistance is futile another solar system collapses.
Mark stone is going to have to put on a stealth breaking any system like goal scoring clinic if the knights stand any chance of takimg them down….barring the refs enabling a circus clown show like they did last year when florida got by them. That honestly was the worst referee influenced series i’m pretty sure i have ever watched most of.
That’s a tough call. It may come down to goaltending and I like Carter Hart over the old guy Freddie Anderson. Both teams have been magical.
Yeah I think I’d be OK with Vegas winning.
As a kid i had a thing for the heels in wrestling. Like my favourite guy was Mr. Perfect for quite awhile because there was not a moment any fan who might be really emotionally invested would ever have cheered for that character. Truly perfectly executed.
And yeah….as much as i hate to admit it: in a vacumn i’d be leaning more to cheer for the bad guys with vegas in this…
Like stone is one of the best versions of the rarest things -> game changing wingers that alnost have as much value as any high end centers would.
Slow arse Crafty sum of a birch makes no sense but yip that was stone again lol.
*rip claude lemieux
I mean. A dick is a dick, but maybe with cup in hand VEG is less dickish about allowing Cassidy to interview…?
Cheering for a pervert and a bunch of pricks?
Ok.
That’s a choice.
I’ll go with Taylor Hall.
I’m cheering for canes due to vegas cup win means more marners enroute for the prick team of our division… but like i want to cheer for the bad guys..mark stone IMO has to have near matrix seeing level high hockey IQ. Personal favourite skill.
With the luxury of my closest geographically located professional sports franchise as a kid not an option:
I’m a flawed human…I’m okay admitting it.
And yes taylor hall with a cup is best story from oiler related fandom heartstelrings. Nothing wrong with what that guy gave to this team.
That’s fair, maudite.
There are few players I still care about after they leave the Oilers… Ales Hemsky and Taylor Hall are special to me for whatever reason.
Maybe it’s because they were the only good thing about the Oilers for years at a time.
It takes one to know one.
I’m the Head Arsehole, not a prick.
Show some respect.
Ah carter hart. That’s the referenced pervert.
I grew up on the skid side of the soc skid dynamics of youth culture: the best skilled richer parent hockeys guys for the most part were the biggest pricks.
I don’t know exactly who and what in that drunk shat head mix instance of pack of not yet men of the most entitled yet insulated development (heavy on athletic excellence possibly little to no time spent focused onnmorality and ethics) with likely some bully type real garbage mentally men in the making who had not been checked at all properly regarding respect for finer s e x….but like i am not going to crucify forever.
Any of them that have an actual heart and moral compass moat of them i bet took the saddest route to get to better version of men because that locker room entitled culture had too many guys who because of team work would fight beside date r a p i s t s when they were kids.
To be perfectly frank. Don’t know the guy well enough to comment much on that.
Maybe not a fair comment, but if my pals are inviting me to watch them have sex, I’ll pass and catch up on my sleep.
This entire incident has soured me on Hockey Canada.
What kind of an organization has a slush fund to hide sexual assaults?
People whining about Stan Bowman’s conduct but still cheering for “Team Canada” are lost in the woods.
Kyrou, Murphy, Cossa. My ff season mantra
I haven’t looked close enough at kyrou yet to form solid yes or no worth making room for if possible style costly adjustments…
What about him specifically stands out as right availableish higher end type target improvement?
Kyrou – $8.1 million
Murphy – $5 million
Cossa – $1 million
Total – $14.1 million
Cap space – $14.6 million
Kapanen?
Statsney?
3 RW?
Dach?
7D?
Now do anaheim with same mimded tilt and tell me how much actually open in oilerized version less than 40 million they have.
Note: much muuchhh less than low 20’s million and remember mctavish is now overpriced washout whose expensive high risk cost asset for any team to gamble on here.
Sure.
Current cap space – $38.75 million cap space
McTavish traded – + $7 million (he’s not a washout at 23)
Available cap – $45.75 million
Gauthier – $9 million
Carlsson – $9 million
Moore – $1 million
Johnston – $1 million
Viel – $1 million
Roger McQueen – $1 million
————–
Trouba – $5 million
Mintyukov – $4 million
Solberg – $950K
That’s only $32 million.
The Ducks have approached John Carlson about an extension but he might be too expensive if his ask is 2X$9 million as reported by Pierre Lebrun.
*There is speculation that McTavish might be traded to St. Louis in return for Colton Parayko.
In any event, McTavish missed most of training camp this season as he worked out a new contract and is a perfect buy low opportunity for someone.
It is also reported the Ducks will trade Owen Zelwegger and should net a solid return.
If mctavish was playing for edmonton he would be surely be not excused for season. No one’s perfect amything. Just another example of poor cap management.
Play the game the way you know you didn’t. And if you conciously avoided doing what you know you would if it was edmonton -> worst most negative context tilt everything 24/7 -> try again.
how are the Oilers acquiring Kyrou without sending salary the other way?
What is this obsession with Caillou?
Because LT keeps talking about him?
8 million a year?
Shake your head, see if it still sounds good.
I think people focus on goals and offense too much. Guys with little physicality in their game mostly disappear in playoffs. It’s rough and getting inside (where goals are mostly scored) takes some determination
This playoffs here are the leading 5v5 goal scorers:
Kapanen 4
Podz 3
Dickinson 2
Drai 2
Hyman 2
Murphy 2
Samanski 1
Nuge 1
Everyone else skunked
I see a pattern. I’ll take 15-20 G instead of 25-30, with a side of jam
Also Caillou for Kyrou was awesome. I hated that show when my kids were younger
Ever see Caillou get roasted on Twitter when Kyrou has a good game against the Oilers?
It’s pretty fun; the cartoon brat takes a beating.
Yeah, i’m leaving him free range as a “not it” if i was playing tag and in the pole position.
Kyrou had the same amount of goals as Savoie last season and 9 more points with considerable more PP time. He’s $8.1MM for term and STL is requiring full return value (perhaps over-value).
Those stats are in a step-back year but I have no interest in this player at the cap hit and likely assets cost.
Good post. Given Kyrou doesn’t use his size why not use Savoie? Bob is going on about distressed assets, but that cap hit isn’t distressed
The acquisition cost isn’t distressed either.
STL is asking too much for both Thomas and Kyrou. They will likely change their take price at some point but this is not the player I target.
Canes vs Vegas.
For all the championing the “changing of the guard” and predictions of an immediate demise of the “old guard”, especially the Oilers, it’s the tried and true Canes vs Vegas.
The Oilers will be back next season!!!
It should be a great series. I don’t really care which team wins. Can they share the cup?
I’d hate to see either team lose.
I’d hate to see either team win on the other hand! 😁
This is the way.
VEG can die in a fire lol
A canes oilers final -> the revenge series this year was possible. Even starring the doug weight lite replacement story in taylor hall.
Too perfect. Just slight bit of extra regret last night at the thought….
But also even if ingram or jarry went full lightning in a bottle to get us to final -> i honestly am not overly confident any style but greasy shat head alleyway menaces could beat them.
I wouldn’t like the chances one bit of highest level jazz magic vs all units rowing in sync super efficient machine systems.
You mean greasy shat head alleyway menaces like Vegas? LOL Carolina may never recover.
Yip…they get the florida “he who gets most cheap shots in 1st after every whistle gets the most timely needed pp’s” garbage they started that series with and then like suddenly flipped it on it’s head in i think game 3 when canes came out nasty and just stacked penalties on them that way in bad timing of game -> they literally have more than a sucker punchers chance of too much advantage.