I haven’t written much about the oft-mentioned idea that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl should and will play on the same line this fall. Please read this.
Why? Because it’s not reasonable based on the team’s depth chart. If Stan Bowman signs Jason Dickinson, runs McDavid-Nuge-Dickinson-Samanski during the early portion of the season, it still won’t rhyme like 97 and 29 on their own lines. We know this!
Today, I am bringing back an archived article from this blog dated October 11, 2017. I think it frames the McDavid-Draisaitl line today as well as it did those years ago.
You’d think this day would produce a lull in Oilerville. I could write a ‘tracers’ article about some scandalous activity performed by Sam Pollock that ruined the competitive balance of the first dozen years of expansion. You could read it, think to yourself “boy, that guy sure can hold a grudge” and we could spend the day discussing all manner of things. Alas, these are the Edmonton Oilers and there’s always something going on.
If the Oilers hit the ice today featuring Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the same line, I expect this blog will blow up. There’s a sense, three games in, that this team needs the big man in the middle to make things go.
Glen Sather, fall 1983: “Sammy Pollock used to say all jobs are open in Montreal but who was he kidding? Nobody was going to take Larry Robinson’s job or Guy Lafleur’s. In our camp I refuse to tell the players that. But I’d love it if somebody took a job away from a returning player. If that happened, that would make our team stronger.”
Raimo Summanen scored five points in two games, Pat Conacher hung around all year, but Sather didn’t have anyone who could take a job away from a veteran fall 1983.
If you look at the Oilers roster as it stands here today, and identify what would be needed to make it hum right away, it becomes clear just how far from balance this team is right now. Adding to the worry is the great unknown that will be Andrej Sekera on his return from injury. Will he be 100 percent? His injury has a history of lingering and having an impact that lasts one calendar year.
What the Oilers need badly is for Jesse Puljujarvi, Matt Benning and Anton Slepysev to emerge as substantial talents in feature roles. Life doesn’t work like that however, and we are back to the dilemma of summer: How can you find a way to put Leon Draisaitl at 1R and 2C? Answer: You can’t.
Identifying Edmonton Oilers’ recent transactions that were aided by analytics
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7319956/2026/05/31/edmonton-oilers-recent-transactions-analytics/
The other side of the coin is that the coach sank almost every acquisition Podz a notable exception. Established players with a track record of doing what the team needed. Jinner was done as an NHL player, that wasn’t Bowman
The movement clauses aren’t great, Bowman has also said he doesn’t think that means that you can’t move the player. Winters talking to Gregor has also said he thinks MC’s are overstated, if things aren’t working the player also has an interest in moving
To me Bowman thinks short and long term. He said recently the stats dept is involved with every decision. We didn’t see that sort of team building with Holland who started the ‘win now’ mantra and gutted the org. It’s possible we see Jarry and Frederic recover after their first intros to the Oilers and contribute what they were brought in to do under a better coach who handles their he roster better, if we are lucky enough to get that
And perhaps Walman stays healthy and the D group does what most thought they would last season- best in the league. The moves make sense to me and I think numbers were a part of them. Frederic replaced Kane in style and at that point had less offense but was a better two way player and much younger. Nurse is out at some point it seems given the smoke and Walman is also a big guy that can skate with far better puck skills. Jarry was risky but most think he has a higher level of play in him than Stu and it seems from what was said a move was needed at that time
Mangi was a miss, but I think on a personal and physical level, not really something stats can speak into to me, and again the coach was ham fisted integrating another incoming player
I don’t think analytics has as much to say about known established players as with lesser known players, so it may look like stats were more involved than with larger moves. Or it may not work out. I’m hopeful it does still
Analytics should be able to tell you about veterans around 30 like Mangiapane. He hit a wall. The Capitals must have known it.
To me that’s more about the pro scouts and whomever was talking to Mangi’s agent. Bowman took a chance he would recover his game in a different environment, they wanted his abrasiveness, and the contract was low enough
The numbers were in clear decline, but he’s not old, I think it’s that he hasn’t recovered his game since the shoulder surgery. They either didn’t care, didn’t ask, or weren’t told the truth
Holland did not waste any of his first round picks.
Broberg, Holloway, Ekholm. Four first round picks used extremely well. And all future first round picks were still available.
Holland left a fully complete contending core.
Skinner, Bouchard, Ekholm, Nurse, Broberg, McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, Holloway, McLeod…essentially everyone except Ekholm in their twenties.
And useful role players in Kulak, Kane, and Janmark. Injuries unfortunately impacted Kane’s usefulness.
The roster Holland left was ready to rock and roll. It did take too long, and he wasted a lot of 2nd round picks, but the roster he left was in exceptional shape.
I’d give him far more credit if Broberg was still on the roster. He drafted him, and then blocked him. So, I don’t think much credit can be given to Holland for Broberg. He screwed it up royally.
Yep Broberg should have been playing 3rd pairing to begin with he could have been mentored by the vets. Broberg checked out of Edmonton when him and his agent had enough games being played on them and publicly asked for a trade. Broberg knew he was good enough to play in the NHL. These players have short windows especially if injury happens rotting away in Bakersfield. Broberg was Holland 1st pick yet he was treated like 5th round pick. Not one draft pick in 5 Holland drafts plays on the Oilers. I give credit to Holland for nabbing Hyman at the right time but let’s face it not many teams over the years had a peak McDavid and Leon to build around.
It’s very long-standing issue.
The last player drafted by the Oilers still on the roster is Evan Bouchard drafted 8 years ago.
Given the team’s lack of draft picks that is likely to hit a decade unless Sam O’reilly or your boy Clattenburg can carve out a roster spot.
Clattenburg will be back we just need the right coach.
O’Reilly? He’s a TBL prospect now. Was traded for Issac Howard.
Oh right…even worse.
I would take Terry O’Reilly on my team anytime anyplace.
Howard will never measure up to Colbourne or Rafferty’s level of supremacy… my bad. All apologies DDF.
Sam O’Reilly changed his name to Ike Howard, and he will be on the roster next season it seems
I have to agree, that’s an impressive group of talent. A second goalie away from a Stanley contending roster.
Moving forward, any Go Dott posts that fail to mention Broberg, Holloway or the blues will be flagged, “Awaiting for Approval”.
And, as always, the biggest of eyerolls to this Armstrong fanboy.
🙄
The problem was Holland only shopped in the obvious bin and rarely didn’t pay too much. So yes he built a good team, but not one that could get all the way. He also engineered the oldest team in the league, and outside of Bro and DH had nothing left in the system that was helpful to the big club. Whiffed big time on a couple of his first round picks, both Bro and DH were surprising picks and there were better players available, including a goalie and two RS C
And while SB could have matched Holloway, it was Holland that couldn’t manage his two best prospects and created the scenario that unfolded. Jackson also screwed up big time and snookered Bowman which created an issue with matching DH
There was still a weakness at 3C and 2RD that was never resolved. And wobbly goaltending. I think it’s faulty attribution say he left a contending core. He inherited all of the elite players. He couldn’t surround them with enough in 5 seasons and created a cap anchor with his butchering of Nurse’s deal
Zito took a middling team and retooled it and won two Cups in that time frame with one elite player
Alright i will bite on this one. Who should they have taken instead of Holloway and Broberg? I don’t see a single player after Holloway in the first round i would take over him even with the benefit of hindsight. Broberg is a top pairing Dman.
I wasnt at all a fan of our drafting under Holland but these two ended up being slam dunk picks.
also the 3C hole you are saying he left only got worse after he left, and same with the goaltending.
Both PB and DH were thought to be reaches in each draft and were unexpected
After Holloway: Dawson Mercer RS C (410 GP 209 pts), Braden Schneider RS D, Tyson Foertser (195 GP 100 pts). There was also Guhle although they didn’t need a LS D
After Bro: Matt Boldy, Spencer Knight, Cam York, Cole Caufield, Thomas Harley
An incoming GM can’t change things right off the hop, it takes time. I don’t see how it got worse when he left, it was the same 3C and goalies to start last season. I don’t think Ingram Jarry was worse the Stu and Pick anyways. I liked the guys, didn’t like how either played. Pick’s success in playoffs was fortunate, but not sustainable by the numbers, and they didn’t stick with him either
Our 2 best players were injured against a big fast team. K.K needed lean on other players for the 1st round yet he doubled down on Connor-Leon and probably Bouchard.
None if those guys are as good as Holloway. He is averaging 69 pts/ 82 the last two seasons.
Boldy is the only one that is close to Broberg value IMO and even then a top pairing defenseman has arguably more impact than a star winger. Both of the picks were massive successes for the range they were taken.
We had McLeod who was an excellent 3C. In Bowman’s second season he had Henrique/Tomasek/Philp/etc for most of the year. And the results reflected a team with a hole at a crucial position
Bang on, with one caveat.
The win now mantra actually began in the C-suite above ChiaPete. His butchery in the race to exit the DoD created the mess Holland inherited and had to subsequently dig out of amidst a flat cap era nobody expected. Even if it was never stated outright, we could all see what PistolPete was aiming at when he passed on 15 and 32 for Griffin “NHL Ready” Reinhart.
True, but I think Chia was being interfered with, that stopped mostly when Holland came, probably his biggest achievement. MacT says Chia still winces when that deal is brought up. I’m not saying he would have been good, but he was largely carrying water
I’m curious: What suggests Chia was interfered with? Why do you think that changed w Holland?
Carolina is playing their top left D prospect on the 3rd pairing on the right side. i.e. Nikishin. They blocked him on the left by trading for Miller.
Harley plays a lot on the right side in Dallas. Hutson plays a lot on the right side in Montreal.
#2RD is not the ideal spot for Broberg, but he demonstrated that he could play it in the playoffs.
Ryan McLeod is a legit #3C in the NHL. With him, because of his transporting abilities, which are elite, the Oilers 3rd line would be able to play the exact same way as the top two lines.
Two years later, Jackson and Bowman have not found better options than Broberg and McLeod at #2RD and #3C.
Mr Godot, Broberg’s underlying numbers with Nurse were terrible, not sustainable. He struggled right side. He didn’t want to play there as well he said. Kulak said the same thing. It was luck, just like Pick winning 6 games in the playoffs. McLeod is a fine regular season player, but now has an indisputable record of collapsing in playoffs, which is why he’s gone
A funny thing happened when Broberg has been on the ice since being inserted into the lineup in those playoffs.
There are very few goals against.
Over three teams now and over two plus seasons. The Oilers, the Blues, the Swedish Olympic team.
I think he’s a good player and had high hopes. I don’t think he’s elite and he does have his weak spots. Which is why in the NHL I think he didn’t want to play RD. I Holland should have traded Kulak and at least got him in the NHL
Big mistake. Holland is not good at building up. What a smart GM does is takes his new quality player and uses him, and cashes in the young vet that has playoff cache for improvement
Broberg is a very good d-man. He also stagnated, even regressed this year from his first season in STL – at least he stayed healthy though.
Nobody believes that. Broberg went from the #3D in his first season with the Blues to the #1D on the Blues this year. He was pretty much the only Blues player to have a better season this year than last (apart from the rookies). Before the Blues went on their run post the Olympics this year, Broberg was the only plus player, hovering near plus/minus 0 on one of the worst negative goal differential teams before the Olympics.
Massive drop in goal share and an expected goal share below 50%.
Do you consider Ryan McLeod being objectively poor 4 playoff seasons in a row – massively outscored in his last two (including 4-12 goals at 5 on 5 on a team good enough to be in the SCF)?
Yes. Since he’s been gone, the Oilers have been unable to kill a penalty to save their lives.
You seem to ignore the Oilers 3rd line scoring was better for the last two seasons he was an Oiler than it has been for the two seasons that he has been gone.
They have spent two years and assets trying to replace him, and they still have not.
You didn’t answer the question regarding his playoff performances over the year.
Perhaps it was the loss of Cody Ceci, your favourite whipping boy, that has cratered the PK?
Just as logical as pinning it on the loss of Ryan McLeod.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of Ryan McLeod and would love him on this team – his playoff issues are real and they are spectacular.
His playoffs are interesting. He was good under Woody – remember everyone was saying he should be used as a shutdown C against Vegas as he was the only center doing well against Eichel.
in 21-22 and 22-23 his high danger chances were 61% and 70%. In 23-24 it was 46% and this year 49%.
his on ice shooting % the last 4 playoffs are 5%, 5%, 4%, 7% (with an .828 sv% this year).
that shooting % is probably not just bad luck and could be that his line isnt going to the hard areas enough but they do get high danger chances and scored more this year but had a terrible save%. Will be interesting to watch him over the next few years
Players like Frederic who have signed a max contract in a lot of cases take a year before settling in and getting their game back. As for Jarry goalies very rarely work out on a new team mid-season. I do think Jarry injury after he started off well hampered him later on.
That’s how I see it as well
Frederic will hit double digits once the pressure of being this so called enforcer is lifted of him. Fighting is not part of his game it has to happen organically. I’m glad Bowman is bringing in some reinforcements to help out. I knew Frederic had lost the coach when he fed him to Olivier publicly. I’ll have to go back and look at when that happened (game17) I think the Coach might of lost more then Frederic on that chess move to get him going.
I’m curious about this “KK fed Fred to NHL heavyweight champ” story. At the time Fred was struggling, knew it, a good chunk of Oilerville was telling him to fight. At the time my take was he wanted to do this. If I remember correctly, he got a lot of kudos for “doing something,” at a time when he was heavily criticized in the Ville for “doing nothing.”
By a similar token, was Clattenburg “fed” to fighters in the AHL, or was he doing what he thought, correctly it seems, would get him an appearance in the NHL?
My take: Fred was struggling, knew it, needed to be seen to be contributing “somehow,” much as low draft pick Clattenburg feels he needs to doing “something” to make a positive impression. He chose the heavyweight champ because he felt he needed to make a statement. For a moment, the Freddy-haters were quiet.
That fight was stupid and I thought so the moment it happened. Fighting someone like that just to fight him, tells me you’re no tactician. Play an aggressive game that puts the opponent on defense and gets under their skin. If you need to fight that guy, make him come to you because you’re getting to them. Simply taking a courageous beating has no strategic value. Gregor brings this point up occasionally and I agree with him.
Agreed. But he does have a track with that. He apparently as a Bruin he hassled Wilson all game for a tilt, Wilson didn’t want to but finally did. Neither of those two guys is a great choice to pick a fight with
He was basically forced into that fight there was nothing organic about it. I no nothing about the Oilers dressing room politics. What I do know is K.K backed a player coming off injury who had lost his confidence into a corner. This would not sit well if I was a player. The high stick to Frederic beak by Roy the previous playoff that was one of the most viscous cross-checks I’ve ever seen. Yet the passiveness response by Frederic leads me to believe Frederic is a very layed back individual. Build a line with identity around Frederic he’s only 28 for heavens sake get a coach that will do this and stop the blender.
I am not a KK apologist, but that fight was on Frederic. He could have played hard, finished his checks, and targeted the other teams skill, forcing a response. But he chose to take a really dumb fight instead. I’m not arguing that he felt compelled and was called out by KK, I am saying his response was poor, really poor. I hope he is a smarter player than he has shown because the Oilers need him to at least not be a negative for the next few years.
The day before the Columbus game that features the toughest hombre in hockey Frederic was publicly Called Out by K.K for not being physical enough. In laymans terms K.K was calling Frederic a wuzz. Frederic stepped up the next evening and fought Olivier who delivered him breakfast-lunch-supper.
No
They could then say thank you, now we don’t need to pay you and you still can’t work till next year
I’m not buying. The expectations were that Fred would hit. He wasn’t. KK says they want more “physicality” from Fred. I be.ieve at times he even suggested once Fred started hitting he’d find his game. I may be wrong.
In any case, Fred, responding a large chorus in Oilerville telling him to do something, instead of doing the obvious —hitting more— picks a fight with the “toughest hombre?” I suggest that layman’s dictionary you (and Fred?) are using needs an update.
I don’t imagine for a second that the coach instructed Freddie to flight Olivier – I think Freddie was feeling the heat from the fan-base and the media and was trying to do something to get himself going/appease the masses.
Clattenberg 100% was fighting on his own accord, in particular after re-assignment down. In fact, he was doing so somewhat against coach’s instruction as Chaulk has been clear and express they are “trying to get him to play hockey”. He already got himself noticed and the org knows what he can do from a truculence perspective – they want/need him to play hockey more to develop the necessary puck skills and ability to make responsible plays at pace – he refused in the 2nd half.
I’m hoping you’re right, on both players.
Sam O’Reilly Memorial Cup MVP, le sigh
And would he contribute in the upcoming NHL season as Howard is expected to? Nope.
People need to watch Frozen. “Let it goooo, let it go oooooo!
You have no way to know that.
15 players from the 2024 draft have already contributed in the NHL More than a few will join them next season.
O’Reilly just scored more than 30 points in under 20 games against the best junior players in the world in the Memorial Cup play downs.
Given Tampa’s need to renew an aging roster,I’d say he has a chance.
“I’d say he has a chance”… so going off your record, that means he won’t
Now do this if he was still an oiler prospect and a fan got excited and posted what you posted!!
Then say this slowly 3 times
Cognitive dissonance
Take 2 aspirins
Don’t call me in morning
That is a really poor response. What I posted is a fact where what you responded with is an opinion, unsupported by any metric other than hope. I too hope Howard crushes it but it doesn’t change the fact that we traded away one of only four players to win his CHL league’s regular season MVP, their playoff MVP and the Memorial Cup MVP in the same season. One of four.
Let it goooo, let it gooooooo.
Fact : Howard will impact at the NHL next year, O’Reilly will not.
SOR is a very good prospect. He did well against teenagers, as did Issac Howard at that age. Issac Howard took the next step and had great year against men in the AHL and is ready for the next step in the NHL. SOR will play his first game against men in Syracuse in the fall, his next step.
Igor Chernyshov was drafted 1 spot after O’Reilly in the 2024 draft.
He has 9 goals 19 points in 28 NHL games played to his credit.
Not all players are on the slow boat to Edmonton.
O’Reilly had one goal and three assists in the Memorial Cup final on Sunday, leading the Kitchener Rangers to a 6-2 win over the Everett Silvertips in Kelowna, B.C.
The Toronto native was named Memorial Cup MVP after notching three goals and five assists in four games.
By doing so, O’Reilly joined an exclusive club, becoming just the fourth player in history to win a league most outstanding player award, along with league playoff MVP and Memorial Cup MVP honours.
You might have heard of the others: Brad Richards (Rimouski Oceanic, 2000), Corey Perry (London Knights, 2005) and Mitch Marner (London, 2016).
Would you be posting this stuff if you still thought he was an Oilers prospect, like you did earlier today
Kitchener Rangers win the Memorial Cup 6-2 over Everett.
Sam O’Reilly with 1G 3A.
On the legality of what Vegas is doing, there IS likely some ambiguity which can get further ambiguous the longer this goes on.
Caveating by noting i am not an employment lawywr and this is also likely a Nevada or NY law governed matter, non compete agreements and clauses (and similar type clauses) are often found unenforceable and that analysis deals with many details such as geographical breadth and many other things. One key is compensating and, while that seems met here, it may not be that black and white. Cassidy will get his $4.5MM but maybe he could get $5MM plus this season or maybe he could get $25MM over a term and they are prohibiting that?
The enforceability of the clause is likely not as locked in as we think but, at the same time, that doesn’t really help the Oilers as any legal process would not be finalized in time – I’m sure the owner of the Oilers has his people on this.
Hypothetical scenario.
After the Finals, could Vegas turn around and offer the job back to Cassidy, in hopes he tells them to get stuffed and then they have reason to keep paying him but keeping him off the market?
Would that be possible, in your opinion?
They could definitely offer him his job back (“unrelieved him of his duties”) but can’t provide and informed opinion on the rest.
What would happen if Cassidy simply violated the agreement himself by accepting a new contract and refusing further payment from Vegas? Would it not force Vegas to take legal action and initiate court proceedings?
He can’t accept a new contract in the NHL until the end of next season without Vegas’ consent. All he would be doing would be giving up the money.
That one makes perfect sense as well – if he could do that, any coach could just quit mid-season and accept a job elsewhere.
Finally got around to listening to the full Cassidy spot on Chicklets and a few things stood out a bit to me:
1) he talked about how when things were going bad in March and they were finding ways to lose, how maybe he should have found a way to bring some joy back in to the room as opposed to trying to get everyone to expressly dig down on details. He’s a details coach and he knows he can get on people and it wears on them.
2) He of course wants this settled and, while he understands Vegas is busy, they are a well run org and he thinks they can find a bit of time to deal with it and “do two things as once”. What was notable on his words is he implied the messaging from McCrimmon is that they will deal with it when the playoffs are done.
3) On a more human note, while this is Vegas’ legal right and while Cassidy wants to work instead of getting paid not to, that’s one thing. There is a family part here, they want to know where they are going to be – he’s got kids that are still school age and don’t know where their lives are going.
I am leaning to Shannon’s take that they will release him after it’s all done
I have had that take since day 1 (although mine is just pure reasoned opinion, I don’t know if Shannon has any actual information – people don’t like him but he has many connections within the league offices).
I hope that’s true, but I’m genuinely curious how that makes any logical sense. Like, if that’s what they’re going to do, why block him in the first place?
It only really seems to make sense if they are genuinely going to stop him from coaching in the Pacific this year. Like, why do it, why take the slings and arrows otherwise? How does not letting him interview with other teams while you’re playing playoff games versus when you’re not materially help your organization?
I’m not criticizing, I’m genuinely curious what anyone thinks such a rational scenario would be. I don’t see what benefit they gain.
I think they are stalling to see if an eastern team will ask. If not, they will give EDM permission IMO
Finns win Gold 1-0 in OT
https://www.iihf.com/en/events/2026/wm/news/74787/gmg
Most Valuable Player
Roman Josi, SUI
Tournament Directorate Three Best Players
Best Goalkeeper: Henrik Haukeland, NOR
Best Defender: Roman Josi, SUI
Best Forward: Macklin Celebrini, CAN
Media All-Star Team
Goalkeeper: Leonardo Genoni, SUI
Defender: Roman Josi, SUI
Defender: Henri Jokiharju, FIN
Forward: Macklin Celebrini, CAN
Forward: Sven Andrighetto, SUI
Forward: Aleksander Barkov, FIN
Judd Brackett who is considered to be one of the top amateur scouts in the game is leaving Minnesota.
Vancouver and Toronto are considered top destinations.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/report-minnesota-wild-director-of-amateur-scouting-judd-brackett-leaves-team-vancouver-canucks-toronto-maple-leafs
There are 2 parts to goal differential, Goals for and Goals against. Here we go again talking how we can out run the goals against – instead of containing the leakage of goals against.
I really don’t give a Rats arse who plays with who as long as all 4 lines are helping contain the leakage
This team has the offensive skill to score enough whomever plays with who up front as long as they collectivley work well together on the back end
When this team starts leaking goal it starts with the forwards not helping full stop.
This team has consistently failed to score at the most crucial times during its SC window. And it is on them.
Then this season we all saw what adding defence-only players and a coach thinking that limiting mistakes actively by dialling back the attack gets you (neither defence, nor wins).
Leaning into strength is the way. Max the powerplay output, draw penalties with attacking play, score goals in all states and dare the other squad to keep up. They won’t.
The Oilers lose when they back off (which this squad has done a ton when they are scoring and could give the 80s team a run but choose not to) and on the rare nights they shoot terribly. That’s about it.
None of that prevents a focus on working to prevent the leaking of goals against. It’s not a zero sum dilemma.
Yep Oilers never could play the trap effectively. Trying to turn Connor into Bob Gainey and Leon into Guy Carbonneau is not going to work. In fact I hope the new Coach gets Connor to think more about offence and has system that allows him to goal suck. Connor with his speed should be getting a breakaway every game from Centre ice in. Connor has a 70 goal season in him let him do what his DNA is telling him to do. If the new Coach can get Connor and few other players smiling again it would be so beneficial to the team now and in the future.
Who is talking about “trap?”
Connor has speed. He should be generating offence with it (he does, except against teams who know how to neautralizr this threat, and that’s more and more every playoffs, it seems). Connor’s speed could also (should also, IMO, when he’s being neutralized) be used as the first-F-back to get the damn puck out of the D-zone. That’s not “trap,” that’s 200-ft hockey.
He has played that way. The team has been defensively responsible. No “trap” needed.
Why would any coach want to slow down McDavid the best player in hockey. Find a winger like Podkolzin to cover for him defensively. This bunk of Yzerman had to sacrifice his O for D is easy to say as Yzerman was on the downside of his career offensively to begin with. Go back and look at the roster of Detroit the best players money could buy including the Red Army finest. If your happy with McDavid thinking D first then you better except a 70 point season along with a goalie that doesn’t allow more than 1goal.
Why is playing responsibly “slowing” McD down?
Draisaitl played last season more responsibly than previous years, started to think about Selke, still won the Rocket.
McD, playing responsibly, helped his team win Vegas (5 games), Stars (5 games), and was proud of it.
If playing fast (and loose) wins the Art Ross but not even first round…
Whether the Yzerman analogy fits or not, the point is: a Capt focused on leading with a responsible style of play is more likely to generate team success than leadership focused on goals. This year, McD was clear from the beginning: he was going to score more. He did that. As a fan, I’d have preferred the McD that led his team to defensively strong and decisive wins over Vegas and Stars.
“Then this season we all saw what adding defence-only players and a coach thinking that limiting mistakes actively by dialling back the attack gets you (neither defence, nor wins).”
Hmmm… I’m assuming you are referring to the additions of Dick and Murph at TDL?
Before March 6 TDL (19 games):
Oilers #22 in league points standings;
8 W, 11 L;
GFA 3.89 (#2), GAA 3.53 (#26) DIF 0.36;
PP 30.8% (#3); PK 70% (#29);
SF/G 32.1 (#2) SA/G 26.8 (#12)
McD: 6G 23A 29Pts +8 8.8SH% 23.56 TOI
After March 6 (19 games):
Oilers #13 in league points standings;
11 W, 8 L;
GFA 3.11 (#12), GAA 2.74 (#10) DIF 0.37;
PP 22% (#14); PK 80.4% (#14);
SF/G 29.3 (#9) SA/G 25.5 (#8)
McD: 13G 19A 32Pts +6 18.1SH% 22.36 TOI
If my assumption is correct re addition of Dick and Murph, it seems (all things being equal, and these 19 games before and after may not be equal in terms of quality of competition) that in what I consider the most important metric, wins/losses, the additions made a significant positive difference: 11 wins v 8 wins.
Interesting to note that McD’s scoring was about 10% better post-additions (even though PP dropped from 30.8% to 22%, shots per game dropped about 10%), and his shooting percentage significantly higher (up to 18.1% from 8.8%).
There are some here who argue to Free McDavid! For what purpose? To win another Art Ross?
Or is the goal to win games? To win a Cup?
The answer seems obvious.
And the coach who got fired had some kind of handle on it, even if on-ice leadership didn’t.
Since the debacle of those mid-late November catastrophes it’s been plain: play responsible, 200-ft hockey – and win, by scoring but not getting scored on. This team did it Nov 26-Dec 25. They did it again, for the most part, after acquiring a couple of defence-first guys. Then, they put together a great final 11 (without one of their best in the lineup).
Then injuries.
Then the sky is falling.
It boggles my mind how a trend towards success turned into the chaos of these post-season weeks here in Oilerville. Egad!
Let’s assume there are no bad ideas. The Oilers brass are considering trying Connor and Leon together. Assume the goal is to be a Top 5 team in the NHL by goal differential. That cutoff is about +50.
Our PP vs PK differential was +19 this year so let’s assume that holds.
We need +31 from evens.
The template for McDavid/Leon/Bouch together are the Avs. Nate went 100/42 goal differential at evens with the most minutes with Necas and Makar. Let’s say 97/2/29 can replicate that. The Oilers now sit at +77 between PP/Pk/Sc1.
Put together 3 lines that play Knights or Canes hockey. If you can get to 50% in the McDavid off minutes you likely win the Prez Cup and they’d have to be the Golden Seals to not be a serious contender.
So not only is it a reasonable option it might be a really good option.
They truly aren’t that far off contending for the cup. Their special teams weren’t very special against the Ducks and that’s what lost the series. Connor, Leon & Bouch didn’t rise to the occassion and the puck deflected off Nurse in behind the goaltender a few times. Bad luck I guess.
I’m with you and OP that the downfall of the Oilers isn’t imminent. Yes, some things need to be corrected, but there is no doubt that a lot of the guys were burnt out.
When you have three of the world’s best players you are never that far off
how much are lines 2 – 4 going to give back ??? we don’t have Lehlonen Nelson Nichkushkin on line 2
— McDrai on different lines suffers from circular reasoning: “they have to play together because we don’t have enough wingers for two Cs”
— rather than :” well we don’t develop wingers because they don’t get to play with good Centrmem”
— it’s a massive fail collectively that Hyman (-aging and getting injured more often) is the only legit winger on the team that has been played as a winger on a skill line.
— So Nuge and McDrai are often wingers and team is projecting on guys who haven’t established themselves as wingers who score a lot with skill so far into this window.
Nothing that a good coach wouldn’t be able to sort out.
— over the years the with and sans McDrai has been debated and analyzed a lot here
— the consensus was always along the lines of “the expected Goals together is so much greater than anything else in the league that you have to play them together”.
— which is a good summary of the challenges inherent in analytics: one can come up always with stats to confirm a bias
— Indeed McDrai together has had some astonishing numbers. But that doesn’t mean that any other option is invalid.
— there has been a lot of positive feedback on the recent hiring and promotions within the analytics group.
— in isolation it’s of course a positive development. It only matters and will generate results over many years if the data results in marginally net positive outcomes. It’s not a panacea and entirely dependent on the acumen and the ability of the decision makers to properly assign value to the quants.
— I could download Claude buy a bunch of tokens and give to my grandmother and tell her : “here this will improve your life, start using it Grannie”. But it doesn’t work that way.
— Oilers have made an investment. It doesn’t mean they know how to use or will use it optimally. Let alone trust it or have the ability to assess any improvements or make modifications.
Sixth time the charm? The previous five “not good coaches” because they didn’t figure this out?
I think you’re overlooking the impact/ascendancy of wingers like Savoie and Podkolzin (among others) who flourished playing with either of Connor or Leon. There have been more, but they’re recent and contributing with either of the Duo.
Promising start to the off-season with the emphasis on creating a world-class organizational structure. It is overdue, but better late than never.
I enjoyed Bowman’s comments in contrast to those of Keith Pelley. Now, I’ll be honest, I can’t stand hearing the latter speak. Recently, he went on and on about AI in sports in typical MBA-ese. Not to dismiss AI entirely, but when it comes from the mouth of a moron I can’t help but roll my eyes. Bowman’s comments on using analytics were more measured and mature and (I hope) a sign of improving process.
They are not going to hit on every decision, but if the process is good I will be happy.
I am hopeful that Nurse stays. I don’t like how the depth chart looks without him. I recall some comments about this physical skills declining; in fact, his NHL Edge top speed was around 94th-95th percentile. It has actually increased over the past couple years. Fascinating. He has a lot of tools. He is a hard worker. He gets raked over for his hockey IQ but was a very good student in his draft year. Intelligence is there. Can someone work with him on not deflecting shots into his own net? Can we see more of that old Darnell Nurse, who would transport the puck himself into open ice utilizing his speed?
Maybe the new edge of analytics is not just Player A good Player B bad, but looking at the context of Player B and saying, how can we get this guy performing to his potential? In fact, maybe Player B is better than Player A, with the right coaching, role, partner, and matchups. In Nurse’s case, there’s a load of physical talent and EV scoring.
I think Nurse will be an interesting case study for organizational process. Is it a panic move to appease the fans/media? Or is it a mature approach, recognizing that improving the asset is a better return than any trade? If a guy can’t skate, that’s a hard thing to change in one off season. If I can get someone to change their positioning in front of the net by 18 inches and angle his skates +/-5 inches, maybe that plays, maybe that’s an entirely different player, maybe you transform Player B to Player A with just that small change.
Mr Starfish strikes again. Flat on his belly helplessly watching while Norway score the winner in OT.
He can’t process the game. When the intensity ramps up, he falters. Time and time again.
it’s not the ‘organizational process’ or the systems or whatever euphemism people want to use to excuse his lack of hockey sense. It’s not even about the contract It’s the player … it always has been.
He’s going to let you down in high pressure moments again and again. There is years of evidence.
Time to cut bait.
Seems like they are trying to
That was not on Nurse at all. He took away the pass on a 2 on 1, the Norway player beat the goalie on a great shot.
Great post. Would love to see how he looks under Cassidy. He puts a ton of emphasis on gaps and denying zone entries. I think he will have a big impact.
The last 1:30 of the 3rd period of the Canada/Norway game was insane. Down 2-0, Canada tied it up
Robert Thomas scored with 1:16 left and 7 seconds left.
And Canada loses in OT.
What was Nurse doing on that play??
Nursing?
I’ll raise my coffee in salute for that one DDF.
I guess that means, 100% doing his job.
You musty be fun at parties.
What the hell is Bouchard and Nurse playing for anyhow. They’re coming off 2 mega short off-seasons and both are minute munching D players that should be licking their wounds. These two have all this energy to go overseas and play nothing hockey with injury a possibility. We all have heard the story of Lowe walking by the Islanders dressing room after they swept us and how beat-up every player was. If by training cap Bouchard isn’t ready or a predator from another team goes head hunting early on this could into a bad-bad decision going overseas especially after he got his bell rung against Anaheim.
Yes…I’m surprised the team didn’t step in in Bouchard’s case.
Very risky.
That didn’t look good at all for Bouchard. Anything you hear about Bouchard between now and training camp could be window dressing.
It was sure vicious and looked awful. Of course, with stuff like this, we have no idea, it could take him a couple of months but it just as easily could take a few days and he’s fine.
Agree it will be tough to take the word of management of complete health at face value until we see him.
Nurse? He played that very well – he took the pass away and kept the shooter to the outside and he beat the goalie short side on a bad goal on the goalie.
As soon as it happened, I knew it, I knew Nurse was going to be criticized even though he wasn’t culpable.
Take a look at Celebrini and, in particular, Mark Scheifele 5-10 seconds before. Scheifele with a terrible pass on a 2 on 1 and then dog-tired, he gets caught cheating on the wrong side in the battle, loses the battle and has zero chance to stop it from being a clear odd-man rush.
Norway wins in OT. A Nurse defended 2 on 1 (although Nurse did a fine job).
I have to say, Mark Scheifele was awful this game.
WHAT????
I don’t understand the thinking. Podz-Drai-Kap is as good a 2nd line as there is in the NHL by my estimation. Sure, most of that is because of Leon, but the style fit and the chemistry is real. Why go away from a skilled power forward line with two value contracts? I don’t understand why it’s even a consideration, unless the inmates are running the asylum.
As OP said Bob says a lot and much is his own take. But he also does prepare the ground for things unfolding. Maybe he’s floating that so when it doesn’t happen it makes the new coach look smart?
Or it could be that McDavid and Draisaitl are convinced it’s optimal and are pushing the idea forward internally. We don’t know, but the Oilers don’t have a 2C to cover the bet.
The call has to be coming from inside the house. It’s the only thing that makes sense. Those are 2 of the top 5 players in the world, but even if it’s only for 1 year, they need to let the coach coach and do whatever he says with minimal pushback. Just try it; amazing things could happen.
If that’s the case they have a problem because Leon is the 2c no if and or butts.
If I’m understanding correctly, your assessment is Nuge, at this stage of his successful career, cannot play 2C on a contending roster, not even with Podz riding shotgun? Wishing you a terrific Sunday!
I think he’ll be an effective Swiss Army knife for several more years, but not a 2C. Kinda like Henrique. They missed him badly in the playoffs but not as 3C.
“Distressed asset”. Even if they happen to find a legit 2nd line player in the bargain bin, it still seems more optimal to run 97,29 separate.
It is. And it’s much easier to find another top 6 winger than a 2C. Play Nuge at 3C and see if it will work
Bingo. This org has a history of making decisions not based on winning games.
What other org in sports has brought in a player’s agent to run the team and his junior coach
2026 IIHF World Championships Team Canada with Evan Bouchard is a different team than 2026 IIHF World Championships Team Canada without Bouchard.
This shouldn’t be a surprise given he’s a top 5 d-man in the world.
I thought that too after they couldn’t generate any offense against the Finns.
I’m not sure how we can make projections in McDavid and Drai playing together when we don’t know who the coach is.
I mean, do we think this is mandated by ownership or management and do we think that is the first topic of conversation with coaching candidates? If the prospective coach won’t commit to doing it, they shake his hand and move on?
I don’t.
This comes from Stauffer and his opinion. Yes, Bob is a major Oiler insider but Bob also has strong opinions and provides them – those that have nothing to do with being privy to information.
And, of course, they will play together situationally at 5 on 5 and on the PP. I’m speaking about the premise of them being primary linemates.
No good coach is going to do that other than as you said, situationally. They don’t have another 2C. Maybe Bowman gets one, seems like a difficult proposition
Knoblauch spoke about playing time for others. That was a tell about his inability to involve the whole group and coaching weaknesses in not being able to stabilize the PK and system play, among other things
Connor being exposed to better more experienced coaches it seems settled it for him, not good enough. Leon came to the same conclusion. I expect with a new better coach, and if they can get a proper 3C, we will see less TOI for the Duo and more defined roles for everyone
Yup… a proper coach, a proper 3c, a proper second D pair and a proper goaltender or two.
Cassidy for starters.
McDavid and Draisaitl are going to have to get on board with the new coach (who won’t be Bob Stauffer) and the rest of the team.
Is the disdain towards running McDrai have more to do with the lack of depth on the rest of this team? Lots of teams run their best players together. The good teams can make more than1 line.
The problem for the Oilers is they are aging out without having won anything. McDavid-Draisaitl hurries sundown for Nuge and others.
That may be true but that should not effect making in-game decisions in the here and now, right?
I’m not the one who brought it up, the players did at the postseason avails. This isn’t something you can wish into the cornfield, OP. It’s a living, breathing idea the Oilers are, at some level, convinced will work. That’s a bad arrow.
I’m not sure what the players bringing up the potential McDavid timeline has to do with the coach playing McDavid and Drai together. That’s my point, because there is urgency to win, shouldn’t mean McDavid and Drai play together as primary line mates.
I don’t understand the causation here.
The urgency means you make decisions based on winning that game and winning the cup and if McDavid/Drai as primary lineages is not conducive to that….
Difference is, they are both highly ranked, super talented centres.
Two elite centres playing on separate lines is the most reliable indicator for winning Stanley Cups.
Edmonton Oilers: Wayne Gretzky Mark Messier
Pittsburgh Penguins: Mario Lemieux Ron Francis
Detroit Red Wings Steve Yzerman Sergei Fedorov
Colorado Avalanche Joe Sakic Peter Forsberg
Pittsburgh Penguins Sidney Crosby Evgeni Malkin
Los Angeles Kings Anze KopitarJeff Carter
Tampa Bay Lightning Brayden PointAnthony Cirelli / Steven Stamkos
Tampa Bay Lightning Vincent Lecavalier Brad Richards
Dallas Stars Mike Modano Joe Nieuwendyk
Outliers:
Florida Panthers: Barkov, Bennett, Lundell. Three centre dominance.
Anaheim Ducks: Niedermayer, Pronger, Beachemin. Three elite D.
Boston Bruins: Tim Thomas Bernie Parent Syndrome plus Chara
St. Louis Blues: Jordan Binnington Bernie Parent Syndrome plus Pieterangelo.
New Jersey. Elite goaltender. Brodeur. Two elite D. In Niedermayer and Stevens.
Vegas: sort of the Florida model. Eichel, Karlsson, Stevenson, Roy. Stud D core.
Colorado: MacKinnon, Kadri. plus elite D Makar.
A young Ryan Getzlaf, Andy McDonald, Sami Pahlsson, and Rob Niedermayer were also a formidable centre force for the cup winning Ducks.
Carolina currently bucking the trend to some degree with Aho at 1C but Stankhoven has been a revelation at 2C.
Balance matters.