There are a few things on my mind this morning, so I’m just going to write them down in an effort to start some conversations. Hopefully we’ll all help each other in reaching a conclusion. Please read this.
Sam O’Reilly’s season and postseason and Memorial Cup may raise him to HHOF status before he makes the NHL. In this way, he now becomes part of the Jesper Wallstedt family of “players the Oilers missed on and everything is terrible those damned mutts can’t do anything right FFS” all-stars.
For me, I’m still more angry about the Miro Satan mistake, but I do understand ire and use if often to remind myself I’m alive. Here’s my take: Ike Howard and Sam O’Reilly are both quality prospects. At this point, it’s a coin flip. Given my druthers, I prefer the more skilled peformer. That is Ike Howard.
Eric Tulsky, Tyler Dellow and Dennis King are off to the Stanley Cup Final and I’m thrilled for them. Two members of the trio graced these pages with wit and wisdom decades ago, and the other one was a guest on the Lowdown. All remain at the cutting edge of the analytics movement. This blog, and its author, is all-in cheering for the Hurricanes and any success these three men might enjoy in the coming years.
How on earth could it be any other way? I was a very small part of a revolution in thought, led by men like Dellow, King, Tim Barnes, Matt Fenwick, Cam Thomson and Brian King. I learned much from them, and for those who sacrificed established careers outside hockey in the pursuit of a dream, I celebrate them. It isn’t easy to tell your wife and kids and cats and dogs you are embarking on a career change. I’ve done it. Not easy.
This isnt about the Edmonton Oilers, although they sure as hell blew it by not building on the Dellow hire a decade ago. The Oilers have Michael Parkatti now, and he’s a giant brain who will help this organization a great deal over the coming years.
This is a happening. This is an endless summer. This is about catching a wave and sitting on top of the world. I understand if you don’t believe in analytics, math, Al’s toy barn or even the hockey puck itself. However, if you don’t choose to celebrate, please allow those of us who are intoxicated by the moment to have our fun. Treat it like a small parade blocking your progress, or a convoy going slow in the fast lane, or like bikers who block traffic so the gang can scoot through a small British Columbia community in less than two minutes. It might be irritating, but it won’t do much to your day.
I respect stubborn. Stubborn has taken me a fair distance in life, and paid off many times. So, when Stan Bowman traded for Tristan Jarry and it didn’t work out, the easy road was dealing him off with a sweetener this summer. It appears Bowman is going in the opposite direction, with the courage of his convictions in pocket.
The math on Jarry is not black and white, and we’ll see what comes this fall. A new coach and a more organized system may allow Jarry to thrive.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk about the Stanley Cup Final that could see Taylor Hall win a ring. Jason Gregor will be our feature guest at 1:20,, and we’re working on a Vegas Golden Knights guest to answer questions about the SCF and the coaching situation. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Can the Edmonton Oilers find an under-the-radar forward to add to the roster?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7321937/2026/06/01/edmonton-oilers-trades-forwards-2026-targets/
I should have read your article first thing but I did not.
So Max Jones is hiding right under our nose?
Looking back, you could almost see it. He displayed everything the roster is looking for in a versatile bottom six player. Until he didn’t. And that is the key. Why didnt this big fast, strong winger who had some offense keep up his game. Well he didn’t so back to the AHL.
I don’t know what happened or how you keep his game up but at almost free Id certainly take him on the roster to see what he can do.
I have a suspicion that Max Jones needs to do a lot of endurance training to stay in the league. We see a lot of focus on strength, nutrition, “getting bigger”, etc. but in today’s NHL, players need to be able to play at a high level for a long time. Jones’ inconsistency really does seem to be “had a good game, need a week to recover”. or it could be something else, it’s really hard to know.
For a cheap, extra forward he’s solid. I don’t know if he would go for that or look for a team where he can play 60-70 games.
I thought he finished strong, was putting together a decent sample of games. Needs to put it together for one whole season but i’d take another flyer.
Jones-Poulin-Dach-Podkolzin-Clattenburg Bowman likes his bottom 6 big-skilled-fast hopefully Berezkin gets signed. Besides Podkolzin Bowman is going to find the skills above in his line-up just like in Chicago where he had a knack for this.
Let us pray.
I would suggest that in recent times, lord-gord has ignored our pleas.
Pray harder? Suffer more loudly?
A bunch of Russians signing with NHL teams today.
New Jersey signed 2 year old 10th overall 2024 Anton Silayev to a 3 year ELC.
He’s a 6’7″ 207 LD
Florida has signed 20 year old 6th round pick Matvei Shuravin to a 3 year ELC.
He’s a 6’2″ 172 LD
Philadelphia signed 20 year old 6th round pick Ilya Pautov to a 3 year ELC
He’s a 5’10” 176 LD
Colorado has signed 21 year old undrafted Nikita Novosyolov to a 2year ELC.
He’s a 6’2″ 172 goaltender.
The Devil always tries to get them early.
Also Logan Stankoven. A small Kamloops kid i got to watch as a 10-11 year old as he helped my daughter and his sister’s team of 6-7 year old girls. I knew then that this kid was special. Im cheering hard for him.
A different perspective on Laviolette
https://nhltradetalk.com/analyst-hints-at-potential-mutiny-if-oilers-hire-former-cup-winning-coach/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=analyst-hints-at-potential-mutiny-if-oilers-hire-former-cup-winning-coach
Makes thew Oilers sound uncoachable.
I don’t think that’s the crux of the article but you do you.
I mentioned this coming the other day but, on June 1, the Oilers lots the rights to Hauser and Sundin – no worries here.
Neither Sundin nor Häuser were signed before today’s deadline (3 p.m. Tomahawk time). They have now become UFA’s. One would think that with all the prospect D’s being LHS — except for Akey — a RHD becomes more of a necessity for the Oilers on draft day.
Also interesting to note that the Falmes declined to sign prospect RW Hunter Laing, who now re-enters the draft. He’s a linemate of Lewandowski in Saskatoon, is 6’6″ and 206 lbs. He was 3rd in points and 2nd in goals with the Blades in the reg season.
Laing seems to have gotten caught in the numbers game with the Falmes. Would the Oilers take a swing on him? Should they? We wait.
Your mention of Tomahawk reminds me of a Peewee hockey lesson. Tomahawk joined our minor hockey association in Drayton Valley I think my first year of peewee. None of them had ever play before, and we town kids clobbered them all season long. Then the next year we were laughing at our friends on one of the other teams who got beat by Tomahawk in the first game. We quit laughing after they beat us and went on to an undefeated second season. Those kids stuck together and learned the game the first year, then cleaned our clocks after that.
pride goes before a fall, and all that
those guys later joined us in our high school and we were all good friends in the end, but that was quite a life lesson
It worked out pretty well the last time the Oilers drafted a former Flame draft pick (with an assist to the Maple Leaf’s faxing error). I would guess the Oilers scouts got a look at Laing’s skating this year, so it will probably come down to that.
Jarrett Stoll?
As expected , Judd Brackett named AGM in Toronto.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7323735/2026/06/01/maple-leafs-john-chayka-front-office-hires/
That’s a tidy piece of business for TML.
It is.
He has a sparkling track record and now has the authority to expand on it.
Sylvain Rodrigue is the new director of goaltending in Minnesota. He always had a great reputation with the Condors, it’s a shame he was never given a bigger role here. I can’t remember if we interviewed him for our open job last summer..
I was a bit surprised when he left as his son was our “top prospect” at G at that time but I kind of assumed that both of those things were related.
Is Dickenson really in the 5M range?
I love that he embraces is suppression role and he’s very good at it. He was part of the best PK in the league in Chicago and was OK in Edmonton where the entire PK was awful.
He played 15 minutes a game, helped turn around the last 17 games. Brought PK from 26th rank up to 10th rank.
He’s a warrior and don’t we need more like him, not less? I doubt you can measure him the same as others, by that i mean our usual Edmonton desire to produce points.
If hes used heavily defensively breaking even might be the best he can do but that would be enough.
Do we have enough math on him to show that he can hold down third line center position and thats worth 4m per year?
That’s the problem, he doesn’t breakeven. In the past 6 years he’s -53.
Nugent Hopkins is -71 in his NHL career, so this does not make Dickenson better, It just says means there is a lot of uncertainty in the stat.
He’s been playing toughs for years. He’s not old. If he is given the right wingers he would change the dynamic of having to overplay the Duo because his line can go out regardless of who is out there. A new coach might line match him and create air for the top 6. It’s out there he gets 5M+, but to me that’s only on a bad team with cap to spend, is that what he wants? No contender will pay him 5M+ it’s too cap inefficient given the production. 4 sounds about right
Oilers want to be better defensively. By all accounts hes a good character guy who loves his role.
The stats I looked at had him -37 in his career, but again, depends on your team and your role. Dallas, Vancouver, Chicago, Edmonton
He only scored 6 goals and 14 points in 47 games. Yet two huge goals in playoffs when it counts. And while injured.
“evident by his ability to drive play defensively at a 20 per cent rate above league averrage, according Hockey Viz. His overall contributions, meanwhile, equate to those of a high-end first-line centre,
At 30 years old, is he really looking for a big raise? 14 point season. Defensive specialist. Injured. Or maybe he takes less and hopes for a one year too many offer. .
No idea. But if he truly offers that defensive leadership we need, and can bring that PK under control, then sign him.
I would do 4M for sure. We gave Mangiapane 3.6M fir a vague middle six role and 3C is a much more important position. 5M is a stretch IMO but some team might do it.
He is not a #3C on a contender. One would be paying $5 million per season for a 4th line centre, along with nearly $4 million (forever) for a 4th line winger. And Murphy will be a $4 million #3RD playing too high in the roster.
Entrenching an average (Connor’s word) hockey team is not a contending strategy.
Dickinson does not provide enough offence (none really) to be 3C. He’s all leather and no bat.
A defensive 4C should max out at $3M and even that would be an overpay, especially given his age.
His contract could easily become a liability.
Well if you move Nuge out then no problem?
No world do I give the guy 5M but maybe I’m wearing the same blinkers that made MacT think that paying prime Petry 4M was a problem.
For me it’s the Griffin Reinhart, “we just drafted a generational talent, 15 pick ago, and are suddenly (still) in win-now mode”.
Yep. They offered the Islanders the exact same deal for Reinhart that they’d just offered for Dougie Hamilton (who would have been great) which just boggles the mind given that Reinhart wasn’t even their best D prospect and wasn’t an established player.
It’s like they were doing someone a favour on that trade.
If we got Hamilton we would have probably kept Hall too. Pete maybe wins us a cup in that scenario.
I often describe the Canes as a bunch of robots. They all seem to play the same, position the same, synchronized, limited mistakes.
Here they are with 1 lost game going into the finals.
What is going on here. They do not have the top end talent. I do not see the best roster. But what they are doing is working.
Oilers need to do more of that, only better.
The league was weak this year, Olympics and all. panthers out, Tampa without Hedman, the teams pushing were young. Perfect opportunity for that type of team
The Hurricanes had the second most shots for/game and least shots against/game in the regular season. They had the second most goals for and five least goals against of any team. There were 4 players with 26+ goals (top-70 is 26G),8 players with 18+ goals, 8 with 40+ points, 12 (almost 13) with 30+ points but three goalies with sub-.900 save percentages. Freddy Anderson is a bit inconsistent due to injury but his .928 isn’t hugely out of line with his performances in recent seasons. I would say that the relative health of the team this year is a big factor as well but I wouldn’t say that this is a team without top-end skill.
Who’d you rather:
Yamamoto, K Dach, Laine, or Puljujarvi?
Dach
My vote also – Dach
me three.
Dach unless Laine is healthy.
Would love to see Laine go back to goal scoring. Not too sure anyone will take on his character.
I believe Laine is the worst defensive forward in the league and reliant on the PP to score.
He’s likely to make the Oilers worse in my opinion.
— Cool legacy with all the hockey expertise that’s has graced this fine blog
— off to Italy with better half. First time away for a week without kids (we have 4). Crazy…what are we going to do with no responsibilities! For a week !
Party like it’s 1999.
Awesome have fun. We have 4 as well, teens and up now. My wife will last a couple of days and then get homesick and miss the kids, but she toughs it out. I suggest that among other things you should eat as much as you can!
First vacation without kids is…weird, but in a good way. Enjoy amazing views, music, great food (oh the gelato) and beverages, the quiet joy that comes with mind emptying relaxation, and most importantly, each other! Have fun!
Wonderful! My four flew the nest so long ago I have only dim memories of that crucible…
If it were me & one of my dancing wives, and my legs weren’t bunged, I’d got to Rome and dance tango. Apparently the Italians know how to do this Argentine dance, well.
Otherwise, I would, as others have suggested, eat! And drink! And nap in the hot afternoons…
Read and contribute to this blog when it freshly arrives in the afternoon, powered by Aperol spritzes and fresh olives? divertitevi!
In an equipment-dependent sport such as hockey, I will always have a hard time taking seriously the claims that people are investing in research and deploying data, when it is completely clear by any number of standards that players do not even have individually optimized equipment (go read Gear Geek for a couple minutes if you’re not familiar), and no one is investing in said equipment.
Just looking at sticks and skates alone shows you how much could be done if the approaches of other sports were applied.
And I won’t even get started on how badly the “feel isn’t real” conversation has to be had with so many of the “elite” trainers out there. The amount of utter garbage you have to sort through to get to facts and visible reality is plain wild. And it is all there, screaming at them in UHD video and with the fanciest sensors going…but nope!
But yeah, keep teaching kids to shoot in shoes, facing the wrong way, with a wet noodle in their hands that can’t keep a puck under the bar, flicking their hands (I won’t even say wrists) instead of shooting with their whole body, producing an inaccurate, wobbling puck that every goalie worth their salt can see the path of because you’ve shown it directly to them…and making a proper pass to the tape with some deception thrown in…forget it.
on an aside…
Like everyone else, my first equipment man was my dad. In year one we got this little plastic mouth guard that you strapped over your mouth. Very unpleasant piece. Eyes and nose still exposed and kids falling down with sticks swinging up. Year two they did not have cages yet but they started this semi-visor.
My equipment man bought a football face guard, cut the top off, riveted the bottom bars to the new visor thingy so that my full face was protected. First guy with a home made cage! But I didn’t like it much because the other kids looked at me funny.
Looking back, we’d probably say that was rather badass – especially how it was constructed.
I’m primarily into golf – so it’s always driven me (and my dad previously on my behalf) nuts that I can’t dial in my kid’s stick the way I can his driver. So few options in hockey, even compared to when I was a kid sadly. Luckily he’s just on the big end of standard sized – rather than massive or with long/short arms or anything. Heaven forbid you need a unique lie and a specific blade. And you can’t just torque the current tech on the oven or with a torch. The current tech should be so customized and has gone the opposite direction. And with no performance data driving that.
What about Kirby Dach.
While the Habs may re-sign him for less, he certainly won’t be qualified at $4MM.
He is a big skilled right shot center and he was once very much worthy of that 3rd overall pick (he was GREAT against the Oilers in the play-in as a rookie).
I believe the injuries have vastly limited his season and his future is now a bottom six player but he still has that size and skill that can help in the bottom six.
I wouldn’t go over $1.5MM nor give term and he likely finds a better contract somewhere else but I would kick tires, yes.
Maybe he’s the 3C going forward?
He was also drafted by Bowman along with his brother. How’s a line of the Dach brothers along with Frederic sound?
I would like that. He did have a couple of lovely goals this playoff run.
I think he would love to come home and play on a line with his brother. I think Bowman makes this happen. I would rather have Dach over Dickerson. Even the younger Dach has pedigree as a second rounder who’s just coming into form. Both Dach bothers are big-fast-skilled the only problem is injuries.
Concern is He has played 2, 57 and 37 games the last three seasons. Not sure how healthy he is now.
Yes, of course.
Injuries are a major thing with him and his career so far and they have lowered his ceiling (he was once a high ceiling top 6 center trending up and is now a bottom six ceiling player, likely).
He’s healthy now as far as I know considering he played the Habs last few games of the season.
The premise is a low cap hit, short term contract given his injury history and lowered ceiling.
I was on this a few days ago with my
Nuge/Samanski/Kapanen
Dach/Dach/Goose(Frederic) line.
Makes a world of sense.
At the time of the Colton Dach trade I figured it might be a precursor to a summer acquisition of Kirby.
As far as places to re-ignite your career go, playing near family, with your brother, for the management team that drafted you and saw you have your greatest success seems like as astute a move as possible.
Dach did suit up for all 19 Canadiens’ playoff games, so he’s probably as healthy as he’s been in years.
What do you think the acquisition cost would be?
The Habs rumour mill was talking about out the McD’s in town for F1, scouting neighborhoods…
Zero as he’ll be a UFA when unqualified.
He’s an RFA so if Habs don’t match him at 3.4 he becomes a free agent I believe. Like Yamamoto back in the day
His QO is actually $4.0M, it’s unlikely the Habs qualify him.
I’ve been asking this question for 6 months why would the Oilers trade their best prospect one who was especially targeted at the draft. Remember oilers traded 1st rounders with Philly to get O’Reilly so the Oilers organization were all in on what O’Reilly could turn into. So the trade to get Howard made zero sense if your plan was to bury him in the minors. Howard is a top 6 skilled forward who’s made for the PP. O’Reilly is a perfect 3rd line Centre. Oilers traded for a position they currently need just so they could block Howard. I think the reluctance of K.K to slot Howard in the right spot to begin the year is one of the reasons he was justifiably fired. Add in the Frederic scratching in the playoffs with not playing a healthy Jarry.
Yes, you have asked that question for 6 months and you have had this explained to you for 6 months, over and over and over again. What answer would you like to hear that will stop you from repeatedly posting the same thing, the answers to which you ignore? How about, “you’re absolutely right, the Oilers made a huge mistake, they should have consulted you first”.
There, will that do it?
It’s just spitballing Oiler hockey talk Oscar. As you read this morning our fearless leader is still talking about the Satan trade. Us Oiler fans all know exactly why Satan was traded by Sather as it was due to a tight budget he was under. I was in Vegas pregame listening to the rock band out front with my Coffey jersey on and this old-timer from New York that had a John Davidson one on approached me. While drinking a few tall boys we mostly talked Oiler 80’s hockey and how good and crazy they were. When Coffey was traded there were rumours besides money and we bullshitted about them. I really enjoyed talking hockey with knowledgeable Americans they all wanted to know how good the Oilers were in the 80’s. It sure would be nice to get number 6 in the next few years.
You are not just spitballing – you are repeating the same question you’ve asked 30 times and continue to disregard responses.
Its highly disrespectful.
Sounds like someone I know online. Have you ever heard the saying “The pot Calling The Kettle Black” You throw around the disrespectful word like Holland did with my Oiler draft picks
LOL – I’ve never done that – what a wild response.
This question has been answered countless times, you ignore the answer, don’t respond to is to have a discuss, then repeat the question.
Its really a dick move and disrespectful of those that take the time to respond and are open to a discussion.
Using the phrase “buried in the minors” with a total disregard to development in the AHL shows clear narrative and an ignorance of the work the player put in while in the AHL.
Because your reasoning doesn’t cut it for me. You can repeat the Gregor propaganda all you want. You sure didn’t like the fact O’Reilly won the Memorial Cup as the MVP? You keep on saying over and over O’Reilly won’t play in the NHL next year just like you stated no way in hell Clattenburg makes it. Now tell me who’s being the real dick?
Howard played 29 NHL games (or a little more than a third of the season). Obviously, management’s plan was to play him. But as Mike Tyson would say “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face”. The Oilers had a bad run of luck to start the season and that means coaches don’t play young guys. That doesn’t mean they can’t play. It just means coaches trust the Janmark’s of the world over guys they haven’t seen play 200 games. O’Reilly wasn’t making the team last year or next year. A team that slots O’Reilly in as 3C next year, is taking a big, big chance. Slotting Howard in as 3LW/RW is a much, much more certain outcome.
I get what you’re saying. My own take on things and not somebody else is Howard was given 4th line garbage minutes. He wasn’t given a fair chance by Coach. This leads me to believe disconnect between Bowman and K.K. Why was K.K fired? Here’s what I think.1) when your G.M
trades your prized player that was hand picked for the position you’ve been wandering in the desert for since Stoll you better be right. We had a better hand than Tampa did. If K.K would have slotted Howard in the right batting order who knows if a few goals here and there would have been the difference against Anaheim as well as 1st in the division. 2) The benching of a player that your G.M signed for 8 years. Frederic was actually playing well against a big fast team. 3) Going with Ingram instead of by all accounts a healthy Jarry.
There you go again with “fourth line garbage minutes”.
I’ve taken the time to ascertain who his most common line mates were this season, posted them for your information (and they prove that statement wrong) and here you go again….
His most common line mates were Savoie and Roslovic, who you thought was an option for the US Olympic team.
Apparently you know more that Lightning GM Julian Brisebois.
https://www.tampabay.com/sports/lightning/2026/06/01/jack-pridham-blackhawks-kitchener-memorial-cup-sam-oreilly-benjamin-rautiainen/
There’s along list of teammates of Howard’s that are having success in the NHL that had fewer points then the Hobey Baker winner himself. If Howard was such a liability defensively then somebody fuked up on this trade. The whole idea of trading your best prospect was that you’re getting a cheap scoring winger that is ready. Instead you send him to the headhunting AHL. It’s a good thing Clattenburg was looking over Howard’s shoulder. Did K.K and Bowman even talk about Howard and how he was to be developed? These folks are making sick money how did they not know that Howard wasn’t ready when so many of his peers were ready? Why do you think K.K was fired after making 2 Finals? There had to be a tipping point and I believe it happened well before six.
Tampa is on a real run hoovering up NCAA grads who refused to sign with the team that drafted them.
When Howard wouldn’t sign they got another first round picked player in return..
They also have plucked another player from the same draft as Howard, Dominic James.
He was drafted in the 6th round by Chicago, refused to sign and Tampa signed him to a 2 year deal.
He played 43 NHL games this past season after only 4 games learning to “play against men” in the AHL.
With O’Reilly, Pridham and James, they’re making out like bandits despite missing significant high draft picks.
KOD
💋 ☠️
I think this is the way it’s going but do we know this? Do we know he’s not looking for a major change in the tending for October?
I’ve been saying it for a month now, pretty much all goaltending in this league is somewhat a function of the play on the ice in front of the tender. There are an elite 4-6 goalies that can perform at a fairly high level even with a poor on-ice product in front of them (and even they are subject to pedestrian traditional numbers with poor play in front).
Tristan Jarry and a .909 in 14 games in Pit and a .858 in Edmonton. He was not good enough, not even close, but neither was the team in front of him. The Oilers were AWFUL for most of the year managing the puck, awful at allowing rush chances and defending them and allowed so many shots from the slot on low to high plays with open attackers. No goalie would have had real success.
If the Oilers play that way again next season, there is no available goalie that will save them.
If the Oilers play like I think they are going to, with a renewed sense of respect for the regular season and a commitment to 2-way structure, with a coach that will implement that structure and hold players to account, well, Jarry/Ingram or Jarry/Cossa or even Stu Skinner or whoever will be set up to succeed and be just fine.
I don’t see the need to spend assets and cap on a goalie upgrade when that upgrade won’t be material enough to make more of a difference than the team play in front of whoever is in net that night.
Yes, that .943SV% Skinner (Nov 26-Dec 12, 5v5; I know, my favourite numbers, another broken record) would be fantastic, ironic, and never going to happen.
Otherwise, yes, unless Oilers play the way they did Nov 26-Dec 25, Mar 7-Apr 17), it doesn’t seem to matter who’s in net.
I pin my hopes on McDrai figuring it out, that 200 ft wins the game, and the Cup. That will make their goalies look good, if not great.
From what we know of Stan Bowman, I would say he’s likely to give Jarry some runway next season.
In Chicago, he inherited Anti Niemi, Cristobal Huet and Corey Crawford, won a cup, and let Niemi walk after arbitration. Next season, it was Corey Crawford (25) and Marty Turco (35), Then Crawford and Emery, Crawford and Emery again, Crawford (28) and Raanta (25) with a touch of Khabibulin, Crawford, Raanta and Darling (25), Crawford and Darling, Crawford, Anton Forsberg (24) and Jeff Glass (31), Crawford, Collin Delia (24) and Cam Ward (34), Crawford and Robin Lehner (28), and in his last season he famously didn’t re-sign Crawford but went with a younger group in Delia, Kevin Lankinen (25) and Malcolm Subban (26).
I’d suggest that if Bowman brings in a young Goalie like Cossa, Jarry stays. If he pursues an experienced goalie, Jarry could go.
I agree that Jarry gets runway this season and I think he should.
The Oilers moved Skinner and Kulak at their lowest values (along with Mang, of course), lets not do it again unnecessarily.
19 games behind the lack of give a shit in front of him does not represent his likely play going forward.
And a good Monday morning to you too, LT! What a pleasant way to start my week. Thank you!
Have you hanged your Vincent Damphousse sweater back in the closet where it belongs.
I misread the Damphousse years. I was a Habs fan 1971-79, forgot about hockey forever until the Oilers woke me up in 2023. Renewed my Habs fandom in 2024-25, mostly because I loved Jake Evans on the PK.
My sweater is #20 (once upon a time Pete Mahovlich, def a favourite), with Slafkovsky’s name on it. My new favourite Hab. That sweater is now hanging in the closet, next to an Oilers sweater, and a Chesterton Chiefs sweater, signed by the original “Hanson brothers,” and Bobby Orr.
FYI, I only wear the Chiefs sweater when coach feeds me to the opponent’s heavyweight. I need all the karma I can get.
“Missed,” not “misread.”
I should of said a Steve Shutt or Larry Robinson jersey. I loved the Mahovlich brothers they were power forwards before they had a name for it. I seen Frank play when he was on Toronto Toro-Birmingham Bull. I went to the 1st Oiler game I was so excited to see Pete-Vachon-McCourt-Thompson-Foligno-Larson. Edmonton was a small cold northern City no one heard of until the Oilers hit town.
Lucky you!
My choice of jersey —then, and now, #29, Dryden. But I got #20 for a good price.
My dad was a Habs fan from the time he arrived in Canada in the mid 50s. But he’d never seen them live.
As he recovered from a broken hip (and it was clear his last years were in the now) in his 80s I asked if there was anything he really wanted to do in his life. No, he said, I’ve done everything I’ve wanted to do.
I asked, How about seeing a Habs game, live?
Ohhhhh, he said. That’d be nice.
So I took him to Vancouver, about 5 hours away, and with most of my kids we watched the Habs beat the Canucks in a well-played (both sides) game. It wasn’t the Rocket or Lafleur or Damphousse, but it was the Habs. And they were great. And they won. And he got to do it with his grandkids and me, and he was very happy. My best hockey memory, for sure.
All he needed to see was the Habs jerseys live with his family. He must of been grinning from ear to ear? Moments like this are timeless. I remember my Dad taking me to an Oilers game at the Cow Barn the Old Edmonton Gardens. The moment you walked into the Gardens you felt something that is not explainable. I wish I seen a game at all the old rinks especially the Montreal Forum. I did manage to see a lot of Oilers games especially early on.
It’s on my list to see a playoff game in Centre Bell. Preferably against the Bruins. That. Would. Be. Electric!
I would like to see Canada in the World Cup. I hear the nosebleed seats in Vancouver are over a G apiece.
Apparently they’re not selling out… let that nose bleed!
Is this the same Dennis King on Twitter, who’s constantly negative to the point of being toxic? The guy who’d complain if EDM won the Cup but did it differently than how he’d envisioned?
So much of player development depends on opportunity.
Tampa has a clear need for another skilled RW.
Kucherov (nuff said)
Gage Goncalves (25) – shoots left – 11G/33P – 6’1″ 190 – $1.2 million
Nick Paul – (31) shoots left – 7G/15P – 6’4″ 234 – $3,15 million
Connor Geekie (22) – shoots left – 1G/3P – 6’4″ 207 – $887K
Scott Sabourin (33) – shoots right – 6’4″ 207 – 1G/5P (AHL signing) – $850K
———————–
UFA – Oliver Bjorkstrand – shoots right – 12G/32P – 6’0″ 176 – was $5.4 million
I expect, given likely contract demands and tepid production, that the Lightning will not renew Bjorkstrand.
———————–
Sam O’Reilly (20) – shoots right (also plays centre) 6’1″ 190 – $964K
It would appear that the path open to O’Reilly is at 2RW and Gage Goncalves is not much of obstacle. and none of the others are likely top 6 options.
All will depend on how quickly he might get up to NHL speed.
We’ll see.
Tampa just lifted Jack Pridham, Sam O’Reilly’s teammate in Kitchner, and sometimes RW linemate from the Blackhawks for a 3rd round pick, because Jack and his NHL exec Dad pulled the college card on the Blackhawks.
Yeah, saw that.
Can’t say I blame him.
As I said, Tampa is aging out and opportunity abounds.
The Lighting also just signed 2025 4th round pick C Benjamin Rautiainen another 20 year old who scored 25 goals and 77 points in 59 goals for league champion Tappara in Finland which are huge numbers in that league. But don’t tell OP he was playing against men.
Someone in Tampa knows amateur scouring…perhaps long-time Director of Amateur Scouting Al Murray is assisting with the re-load.
I have been following the progression of stats in the game since near the beginning. It’s how I found Lowetide. After the initial explosion, things petered out as people got hired. But a big part of that was also what Vic Ferrari pointed out, that they had taken things as far as the publicly available data allowed. Without the type of data the league gives to the teams, or private companies collect, there wasn’t much more to do that would be informative or trustworthy as definitive
Maybe that was a big draw for going to an NHL team – access to more data. These days I have taken a middle lane on the public numbers. I think they are helpful to get a deeper look into players and what teams do. But at a basic level, as a support to what we see. PuckIQ is great as a quick look into who players are playing against and how they fare on their team, how the coach sees them by usage
We can look at results at NST, use line tools, for information, but at the NHL level I am not sure how much of an impact stats really have. All the teams have stats departments, some listen to them. But about what?
I think stats can help evaluate players they might be looking at, and to help round out scouting on the other teams, which I think they do to be prepared if trade talk comes up. I think it’s important in evaluating for the draft. The biggest impact to me stats can have is if they are used to refine the system to be as lethal and suppressing as possible
Now that success rates for types of plays are quantified, it should be a no brainer. I don’t think KK was using that info, and I believe that is what was causing the drop off in offense. Spending too much effort doing things that don’t help create higher odds for scoring, I hope the next guy does that. Too much rimming around the perimeter and point shots
It’s interesting to me that the Canes with a long interest in stats and some OG Oilers fan stats people, I find hard to see where it shows. They are a reflection of Rod. They play a high pressure high tempo game, 110% effort like he had, and take lots of shots. So they like players like Stankoven who naturally play that way. I’m not sure how much stats inform that
I’m happy for the fellows LT mentioned, I’m not trying to rain on the parade, just pondering. It’s interesting that the Oilers who ignored that stats dept pre Bowman have had more success than the Canes in the last 5 seasons. Why didn’t the Canes find a good enough goalie over those years which was their biggest problem, followed by not having any elite players?
Perhaps the stats guys helped them find players that were value cap hits and good enough to make them a strong team. Stats have value, but now that everyone is into it at the league level, finding an advantage with them is probably difficult, but at least you’re not falling behind. I hope the Oilers are that team that finds the advantage
Good post and measured. I want to respond to one point you made…
“It’s interesting that the Oilers who ignored that stats dept pre Bowman have had more success than the Canes in the last 5 seasons.”
I believe that this is what peak McDrai with a legit top pairing brought to the team. A team like the Oilers could enjoy some success without paying attention to the smaller details, with a few really bad contracts.
Carolina has had a few higher picks, but nothing close to a McDavid or Drai (or a McKinnon or Eichel).
Maybe this is unfair, but I really believe if Oilers management and Carolina management are comparable, by virtue of Oilers winning the McDavid sweepstakes, our on-ice performance should be much better.
How poor would our team have been if we hadn’t won the 2015 draft, and ended up drafting #3 as our standing position would have warranted (Dylan Strome)?
Alternatively, how much better would the Canes have been if they had won the draft lottery and picked up McDavid instead of Hanifin?
Your questions interest me. My pet theory (not so original, I’m sure) is that winning McD kickstarted an impatience to “win now” that, as it gets more urgent, sucks the oxygen out of the room of more measured team and roster development. It leads to what looks like an owner-is-angry-fire-the-coach move before thorough analysis.
Your point about success making it easy to not pay attention to details (whether that’s data points or defensive play) —makes sense to me.
So I’m curious how teams like Chicago (Bedard), SJS (Celebrini), Islanders (Schaefer) will build over the next 5-10 years. Will there be a gold rush approach? Or a more patient, (analytics-informed?) effort to build success? If the Leafs keep their #1 pick, I’m adding them to the watch list.
ps. LT drew a comparison between Oilers 2015 and Habs 2022 recently. Three differences I see are:
-Habs #1 pick (Slafkovsky) wasn’t a franchise-changing player (at least early years);
-owner was explicit about not being a hurry, wanting rebuild “done right”
-Habsville (fans, pundits, media, org) were onside for a more patient approach.
I don’t know to what extent Hughes, Gorton, or St. Louis pay attention to analytics.
Thanks for the response!!
You said: “Your questions interest me. My pet theory (not so original, I’m sure) is that winning McD kickstarted an impatience to “win now” that, as it gets more urgent, sucks the oxygen out of the room of more measured team and roster development. It leads to what looks like an owner-is-angry-fire-the-coach move before thorough analysis.”
I’m not convinced that there was impatience so much as incompetence.
Maybe you’re right… maybe the Oilers blew it because they tried to rush. But most of the bad moves they’ve made in the past 3 years feels a lot more like they just undervalued our trading chips and/or didn’t do due diligence on the players we were bringing in. Chia and Bowman doing a poor job, and Holland doing a mediocre job seems like the simplest explanation (at least it does to me).
WithThe Reinhardt trade _someone_ was impatient and I’m not all that sure it was Chia.
BoB and Red Wine Summits. Those were the days
Was it impatience or just ineptitude? Chia just made so many dumb moves, I assume he just flubbed everything he touched.
Maybe it was rushed *and* inept.
As it’s unlikely I’ll ever hear from the GMs or owner on the topic of impatience/“win now,” I’m very happy to collect and compare opinions. Thanks for your thoughtful response.
I think San Jose is running it differently, they are not chasing FA or making silly trades that eat up cap so far. They are letting the team grow.
Oilers had Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Drai, Nurse, Klefbom, Yakupov, Slepyshev and they viewed Mcdavid as the final piece from the get go. That’s from the previous 5 drafts to Mcdavid for “top end players” not saying they all made it there but how management viewed it
2019, 2020 the Sharks basically came out of them with nothing draft wise. Starting 2021 they got Eklund, that’s it, then nothing in 2022. I’m actually impressed how bad their drafting success was in those 4 drafts. 2023 they got Will Smith, that’s it. Then they got Celebrini, from the same draft they may have a player in Chernysov. If they have the same drafting team that they had since 2019, they are in trouble, they make the Oilers look like all stars at scouting.
Anyways, I don’t see them rushing it. They don’t view Celebrini as their final piece for a cup, they view him as the starting point. The Oilers did the opposite, trading hall (honestly I liked Larsson) and signing Lucic, trading Eberle for Strome and then flipping him for Spooner, the Reinhart trade. Chiarelli took it to literally about winning a cup when he got here that he just made unnecessarily aggressive moves that didn’t align with them drafting an 18 year old kid as their best player.
Thank you.
You’re right, I’ve often commented that the success they have had was largely driven by the big 3. Stats have an important place in any pro sport, but I think that they won’t do what many think they can. You can go too far like baseball and reduce the human side of managing. Soccer also went sideways focusing on things that don’t matter like how far a player runs in a game
Injuries aside this season, I don’t think the Oilers’ problem with the bottom 6 is that they didn’t use stats to find the right players. I think it’s been more a coaching issue and probably how they were being asked to play. And coaches having opinions about guys that they won’t change
Teams have capologists, so overpaying players or signing dumb contracts isn’t something stats would help. The teams and agents have a way that they value players, Winters talked about it to Gregor. It’s not a crap shoot, it’s about being prudent
Thanks again.
“I think it’s been more a coaching issue and probably how they were being asked to play.”
“Teams have capologists”
I especially like the “analytics on coaching” question.
That aside, it’s boggled my mind how gaga so many are on the ex-Vegan coach. A Cup in 2023, but no SCFs since. No WCFs since. Vanquished handily by coach K and these Oilers in 2025 WC Semifinals. His team had worse defensive numbers than Oilers this year. Lots of words about system etc but poor results. What are the criteria for this coach love affair?
What were the criteria for the coach firing?
To me it looks like more of the impatience/shiny new toy problem.
There aren’t analytics for coaches I know of other than results. None of those contracts are high. Term doesn’t matter much if the GM will ask about moving as Bowman said. I don’t know Walmans buyout but Freds is low meaning there is a way out
Frederik Anderson has been with the Canes for five seasons. In those five, he has played in 4 playoffs with a .927, .895, .907, and .931 (this year).
Using/following stats doesn’t guarantee success. A lot of hockey is luck and injuries. In the last 8 years the Hurricanes have never missed the playoffs. Over that time they have made the second round 4 times, conference finals 3 times and Stanley Cup Finals once (this year). The Oilers only won 4 rounds in the previous 8 years before hiring Parkatti. I’m not saying they’re directly linked but I am saying we can’t assume the Oilers made the finals without analytics either.
None of the stats people suggest using stats alone to determine if a player is/could be good. Stats help with the things we can and can’t see and everyone uses stats. For instance, *Blank* is a good scorer because he scored 40 goals. That’s a stat, not an eye test. *Blank* can’t skate. That’s an eye test. *Blank* has a max speed in the 15th percentile, that’s a stat.
Stats can add information or lead to information. They can confirm or deny what we see. Good teams know how to use them well. None of it guarantees success. The OG Moneyball team, Oakland A’s never won a World Series or even made one despite the best regular season record over a 15 year period.
Nicely put
Would RNH wave his NMC?
The honest year end assessment could be;
He doesn’t score enough on 97’s wing
He is not physical
He can’t win a 2C match up
$5.1 for a 3C is too much AAV
He played 1.16 TOI on a bad PK
He is replaceable on the PP
under 50% on the dot.
Is RNH’s AAV easier to upgrade than Nurse’s AAV?
$5 million is not too much for a #3C with the rising cap.
People underestimate Nugent-Hopkins contribution to the powerplay.
This is exactly it. A $104M Salary Cap means a $5.1M Player is a bit above the “average” cap hit of a player on a 21-23 player team. RNH was our #4 scorer the last two years while playing well on the PP & PK. He was #101 in scoring league-wide last year and #134 the year before. He’s delivering value for the money and likely would need a more expensive replacement to be a “sure thing”.
I don’t know if I would slot him at 2C or 3C instead of on the wing. My preference would be to add a strong 2C and 3C that can play wing and then have options.
Replacing him with a similar calibre player would cost something and I don’t see a cheap internal replacement at the moment.
I don’t know.
A PP with McDavid, Drai and Bouchard shouldn’t need a player like RNH to stir the drink. Maybe it’s time for a younger player like Savoie or Howard, or another shooter to play the PP.
And his 5v5 numbers are not strong.
I wonder if a different, better, faster, younger player can be had for $5M or less.
It’s not a popular take, but he should be the first aging forward moved. As godot said he is a big piece of the PP, they can figure something else out. To me it seems the coach has to find a place for him. He is versatile, but not that great at anything these days. And I think the last coach leaned on him in a way instead of coaching the group up
This postseason seeing baby Nuge unable to drag his ass to very winnable pucks was a big eye opener for me. Until that moment I’d been firmly in the ‘not yet’ camp.
Sam O’Riley is a very good prospect who just had a great season playing against teenagers (in his draft plus 2 while 20 years old for a good part of the season). He looks ready to take the next step and play against men for the first time.
Issac Howard is a very good prospect who just had a great season playing against men and looks NHL ready to impact.
65 – 20 and under players saw NHL action last season.
That’s an average of more than 2 per team.
What’s the average for the final 16, final eight, final four, and finalists this year?
Generally speaking, this players are on the rosters of teams that are rebuilding or re-loading.
As we’ve seen with your Habs, an injection of talented youth can quickly be turned into success.
Players who joined the team on or before their 21st birthday include:
Slavkovsky
Caulfield
Kapanen
Demidov
Guehle
Hutson
Fowler
Anaheim is in the midst of a similar situation with a growing number of players who made the roster on or before their 21st.
McTavish
Sennecke
Gauthier
Gaucher
Carlsson
LaCombe
Zellwegger
Mintyukov
And the Ducks have more on the way.
San Jose is a season or so behind but with 3 first rounds picks they likely won’t be for long.
Celebrini
Smith
Eklund
Misa
Dickinson
Cagnoni
Askarov
Which is to say that the days when every prospect has to spend time learning to “play against men” in the AHL is long since over.
Many are learning in the NHL and thriving.
Slavkovsky – #1pick
Caulfield – 2 seasons of college post-draft
Kapanen – 4 seasons in Sweden post-draft
Demidov – #5 Pick 1 year in KHL post-draft
Guehle – 2 seasons of junior post-draft
Hutson – 2 seasons of college post-draft
Fowler – 2 seasons of college post-draft
Why is your trolling so lazy?
Were they 21 or younger when they first played in the NHL?
Did Eberle get 76 points in a season?
Thanks. That’s definitely helpful re my general interest in how clubs build. Crazy how young Habs and Ducks are, and that Habs got to ECF. My specific interest in rebuilds is how teams construct rosters w top pick stars (Celebrini, Bédard, Schaefer).
Viz your earlier comment, about the average U-20s per 32 teams’ roster, I’d love to see the averages for final 16, 8, 4, 2 teams.
Offer sheet Zach Bolduc at the 2nd round level.
It would probably not cost very much to acquire Jonathan Drouin from St. Louis.
Justin Holl would be a cheap right shot depth D to sign as a UFA.
It would cost nothing.
He was throw-in when the Blues traded Brayden Schenn to the Islanders for 1st and 3rd round picks in the upcoming draft.
Pretty sure the rebuilding Blues would love to get out of his $4 million cap hit and might throw in a pocket lint pick to dose.
I was hopeful for Drouin when he signed with the Isles because I thought the lower pressure environment and the maturity he’s gained would be helpful for him there. I’m not sure how he would do in Edmonton.
I hope they do offer sheet some good targets. Bonus if it hurts the Blues in any way.
Lowetide wrote “Sam O’Reilly’s season and postseason and Memorial Cup may raise him to HHOF status before he makes the NHL. In this way, he now becomes part of the Jesper Wallstedt family of “players the Oilers missed on and everything is terrible those damned mutts can’t do anything right FFS” all-stars.”
Yes… that’s definitely getting added to “THE LIST” TM, but we’ll discard it if O’Reilly can’t translate his talent to the NHL. 🙂
Lowetide wrote: “Eric Tulsky, Tyler Dellow and Dennis King are off to the Stanley Cup Final and I’m thrilled for them.”
I think I showed up here too late to interact with Teyler Dellow, but Dennis was definitely around for a long time while I was hear and he was a great poster.
I’m so happy to see that he’s a pro scout now (doing a great job I’m sure), and I’m cheering like hell for him and for Taylor Hall to get Stanley Cup success!!
Google is telling me that pro scouts may get their names on the Stanley Cup if the team wins… that would be incredible if Dennis’s name got engraved!!
Right now, we are looking for seemingly poor players.
How does this make sense. We need value. We need to find other teams mistakes.
A poster says “he sucks cause….” And that just may mean perfect, but also risky.
We want good numbers at some point, or flashes of them. Holloway was a monster when you looked at his improvement curve, in every league. Still didn’t put up enough in his draft year. But somebody seen him developing and knew what he was coming on strong.
Roslovic was a good pick up last season. Not perfect but put up 20 goals with little aid from Connor or Leon. Good puck mover and inexpensive.
Mangiapane the opposite. Previous numbers supported him. recent numbers were down. It was a risk and it did not pan out. This is the player type we can expect this year in my opinion. (but better result!)
Im not expected a “hes really good” type, Im expecting “he was showing promise, dropped off, we think he will recover” type. And hoping for Podkolzin.
Hoping the math finds us some difference makers. In coaching, who has done more with less? What players have popped when a coach took over? What players excell after a coach leaves?
I think the key word is ‘seemingly.’
I would suggest we are looking for players that are a reasonable bet to outperform the cap hit they will sign for.
Speaking of Math, the Oilers, goalies and Analytics. You can still find some of Parkatti’s work out there and it’s encouraging that this guy got a promotion:
https://boysonthebus.com/index.php/2019/07/16/when-you-can-tell-your-goalie-isnt-a-starter-and-mikko-koskinen-part-i/
https://boysonthebus.com/index.php/2019/07/17/when-you-can-tell-your-goalie-isnt-a-starter-part-ii-good-goalies/
https://boysonthebus.com/index.php/2019/07/18/when-you-can-tell-your-goalie-isnt-a-starter-part-iii-bad-goalies/
Thanks for the link.
Likely Parketti would have updated his analysis since 2019. I would love to read his thoughts on Skinner and Jarry.
I cannot do the math angle. That’s why I love it when some smart posters drags a whole bunch of data up for discussion or to make a point. Sometimes I challenge the math but I still appreciate the work and the challenge to my own thinking.
I prefer when someone draws some conclusions for me as well. Presenting the math is not always self explanatory.
I often find the math is too black and white without enough of the “why” answered. Yes, I can believe such and such is a fact due to statistics provided. But why? What is happening that leads to this result?
The human element I also find interesting. If a player is or is not doing something, what is going on with him? Physically? Mentally?
Finally, tactics. What is the plan? What was supposed to happen and why is it not happening? Failure to execute is just a statement of fact. Does a player not care? Unlikely, so then what else is going on?
If one can figure out the why behind the results, they have a much better chance to correct the problem.
I think a lot of publicly available stats give good insight into a coach’s thought process and strategy. I.e., many numbers are a function of deployment.
Haha. When Darcy McLeod (one of my favourite math thinkers) writes something, I always read it. I tell him the truth though, I skip to the end to find the conclusion before going back up to start at the top. 🙂
I’ve spent 38 years as a professional accountant explaining numbers to my clients and to many others in my volunteer life, and in my spare time, trying to take hockey stats and interpret them with some insight, while also considering the human and mental side of things, especially for goalies. Your approach and queries are vital and valuable to any math/stat analysis. People can be math smart but not apply their calculations to the right scenario, or make an incorrect conclusion because they never took the time to use the eye test or ask questions. It’s always a combination of the math and the ability to stand back and question whether it makes sense, and if you can make conclusions based on the math.
Satán mistake? How about the Whitney mistake?
That’s the one for me too. I went to an LA vs. EDM game when Vis was still on the Kings. I think we lost 3-2 but I remember he didn’t get 3 points but made plays on all three goals for that were very skilled (like batted a puck out of midair to keep it in the zone on the PP) and broke up a number of Oilers chances. At that time, we really, really needed puck moving D and I thought he’d be great but there is just no way they trade him.
And then we do get him! And then we trade him for Whitney who had serious ankle issues……..that we knew about when we traded for him……..
Lol I was referring to “The Wizard”
Haha. They could have drafted Neal Broten with the puck they gave up for Semenko!
That ’79 draft is wild. Anton Stastny went at #83 then the Oilers pick Max Kostovich at #84.
The Oilers traded the #42 pick (Broten) and #63 (Kevin Maxwell) for Dave Semenko (who was originally on their WHA team)and the #48 pick (Mark Messier)
They drafted Glen Anderson at #69 with a pick they got from Minnesota in exchange for not taking Paul Schmyr (also a WHA Oiler) in the expansion draft.
The Oilers 6 picks were three HHOFs (Lowe, Messier, Anderson) and three players that combined for 4 NHL games…..
The Oilers also signed Charlie Huddy as an undrafted free agent that summer.