As we join together today, two things are rolling around in my mind. First, the Oilers did a good job this summer. Offloading the Darnell Nurse contract allowed for all manner of moves and the team’s depth chart has rational depth and layers of possible solutions in problem areas.
On the other hand, betting against the Oilers has been good for business in the last 25 years. I think it’s important to write down what we know to be true, believe to be true and acknowledge what we don’t know.
What is true
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard give the Oilers an enormous edge in every game. The top-end support veterans range from exceptional (Mattias Ekholm, Zach Hyman) to very good (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan Shea, Frederik Andersen) to average or a little better (Jason Dickinson, Jake Walman, Connor Murphy, Tristan Jarry).
The young players who have established themselves (Vasily Podkolzin, Matt Savoie) as legit feature players should enjoy substantial careers. As mentioned above, the team took a layered approach to areas of need (like goaltending) and made good bets.
What we believe to be true
Mike Babcock is going to bring discipline to the Oilers in 2026-27. That will impact shot and goal suppression numbers. Ike Howard will get a chance, and is poised to succeed. Two of Shakir Mukhamadullin, Ty Emberson and Spencer Stastney will make up the 6-7 portion of the defensive depth chart. The three goalies will, as a group, improve Edmonton’s save percentage from a year ago. Trent Frederic and Colton Dach should form a substantial tandem on a depth line, driving opposition defensemen to distraction. Kasperi Kapanen will be a solid utility player, moving up and down the lineup.
What we don’t know
We have no evidence the roster players will pay heed to Babcock’s message. The team has, in the past, held the game plan for a period of time, but have never come close to adopting a system and remaining true to it for (say) a two month period.
We have no evidence there is a ‘start as you mean to go’ attitude from the organization. Will the roster be completely set opening night?
We don’t know how the center depth chart will look, especially during periods when McDavid and Draisaitl are together at five-on-five. We are not certain the Oilers will use Dickinson in his best role (defensive center, penalty killer).
We are not at all certain of the group of Bakersfield Condors who thrived in the minors one year ago. It’s possible all of Quinn Hutson, Viljami Marjala, Damien Carfagna, Beau Akey, Connor Clattenburg, Max Jones, Josh Brown and Atro Leppanen have no real impact on any NHL games in 2026-27.
We don’t know if Owen Michaels or Eduards Tralmaks will make a difference in Bakersfield, let alone Edmonton.
We don’t know what happens if this thing breaks. The Oilers standings points totals over the last four seasons (109, 104, 101, 93) is going the wrong way. What happens if that number goes even lower? Is there a backup plan in case the Babcock experiment lasts less than an entire season?
This is a good team, but the heart of the order is moving out of peak years and the top support group is nearing that ‘over 30’ cliff that is such a worry. Can the coaches, players and organization keep things together for one more deep run?
Aaron Portzline
@Aportzline
Told there’s nothing happening with CBJ on the Kirill Marchenko front, despite rumours out of Russia to the contrary.
Not saying it can’t change later this summer. But my understanding is CBJ have not had calls on Marchenko since earlier this summer.
I hope I’m wrong but I don’t currently feel confident Trent Frederic and Colton Dach will form a substantial tandem on a depth line. I’m concerned these two wingers with Samanski at Center aren’t the quality of the 4th line of other Stanley contending rosters.
I feel good about the first three lines, pleased they resigned Dickinson.
I’d feel more confident if Stan got another Center to play third line, moving Dickinson to 4th line and providing Samanski opportunity to continue to develop in the A. Dickinson and a new more experienced and established Center could love between 3/4 lines as the Coach determines is needed. A new more experienced Center for the bottom two lines would also give the Coach some cover/options if putting 97/29 out on the ice at the same time.
in summary: Starting the season with Samanski as 4C on the depth chart, doesn’t meet my measurement of a Stanley roster. This is my primary roster concern. I’m not sold either on the 4th line wingers but that’s probably easier to look for replacements early in the season, if needed.
Samanski’s time is now or never imo. I don’t think he should ever again be farmed except as part of an extremely short term related to the cap or active roster.
What if Fred is finally Bruins Fred? That guy plus Dach could do a lot.
I agree, I’m cheering for Frederic to have a big bounce back season. Let’s see what he can do after summer to prepare.
A year ago, he was coming off a 3-month summer, after playing playoff hockey on a badly sprained ankle for two months and then, for some reason, put on a line with McDavid/Drai which sounds like a dream but is setting that player up to fails.
This year, he will be coming to camp for over 5 months off, time to hockey train (as opposed to rehab and, presumably, but in a position more conducive to his proven skill-set.
I will absolutely not relieve him of all culpability for his beyond imagination terrible season – there were mitigating circumstances but he needs to own that season on a whole.
I loved seeing Connor and Lauren at his weeding a few weekends ago and I look forward to a much better and impactful season for Frederic. Nope, I don’t expect the peak-bruin 18G/40P but, then again, its in his skill-set.
1) I am very happy with Frederic/Dach as a winger combo on the 4th line and think they each have 3rd line upside.
2) My issue is the potential for Dach to be used at center on that 4th line with Samanski in the AHL (likely Joseph on the line). Not that I don’t like Joseph but I think Samanski is a more substantial player than we saw last year. Sammy cheated for defence during his Oiler time and that should dissipate with more comfort in the league. It was Samanski, not Hutson, that led the Condors in 5 on 5 scoring at the time of call-up.
I’m cheering for all of the Oilers, I feel we are one experienced and established centre away from starting the season with a Stanley Cup contending roster
Enough with this talk of Oilers must button down to a Vézina style of hockey. This team needs more goals hence bowman going to quick retriever of the pucks with a lightning fast quick pass transition game. No more bomb passes enough with how many goals we allow. Bowman-Babcock have the horses to outgun any team I expect to see 40 plus goals most of them generated by our D. It’s time the Oilers returned to Oiler hockey.
Fine. They still need to know when they can’t cheat for offense when the chips are down, or, push a high risk high return hero play when an entire game series season is on the line.
Of course they need to tighten up at various times in games. Let’s be honest Oilers were boring last year they need to get back at coming in waves. The only way you do that is to roll the lines. Babcock will line match giving either Connor or Leon fresh air. Less minutes for Connor and Leon in the first 2 periods let our depth win games. The last thing I want to see is Babcock putting the leg irons on Connor-Leon-Bouchard. Any team can play the trap will have lots of time for trap hockey once Connor-Leon-Bouchard are gone until then let’s become an offensive juggernaut. I also love the idea of a baseball rotation in net. This could actually lead us to a forgotten concept of stealing games by our goalies.
I’m going to just keep saying Kirill Marchenko is an Oiler next season so the universe manifests it to make it so. Improbability be dawmned!
On a serious note though, I really believe that player turns this team in to an absolute wagon. 6’3/201lb 30 goal scorer in Columbus? I bet he’d put up 40+ playing with Leon.
Savoie McD Hyman – We know.
Podz Drai Marchenko – Beast mode.
Nuge Dickinson Kap – Dzone/Hard comp
Dach Samanski Fredric – Feisty/Fast/FAFO
Would Columbus listen to Howard, Akey a first and a third? Would you offer that? Too much, not enough?
As
Roy Orbison(oops)the Everly Bothers(lol) once said…”dream dream dreeeeaaaam”I don’t think that comes close. Akey has little trade value (in my opinion).
In any event, the issue with acquiring Marchenko is fitting in the $10MM plus starting 2027/28……..
Well, throw another first rounder in there and whatever other prospect they want. Then when he scores 45 goals next year, sell high with a sign and trade to recover the cost of acquisition.🤷🏽♂️
I would suggest that Columbus probably wants Podkolzin in the trade along with a couple first rounders or equivalent.
A lot of moving pieces for the plan you have.
I would very much enjoy that player added to the team – doesn’t seem likely to me.
Indeed, totally why I predicated it with the caveat of improbable and finished it with me dreaming. 🤷🏽♂️
Apparently Columbus is finalizing a Marchenko trade, let’s see if Stan can land the big fella.
One thing to keep in mind, Podkolzin and Marchenko were teammates in the St. Petersburg SKA system (KHL/VHL) for 3 seasons from 2018 onwards.
If they do consummate a trade, I hope they keep Podkolzin so that Marchenko has a friendly face to ease his transition into Edmonton.
Listening to the scuttlebutt, it’s down to two teams with Montreal one of the rumored teams in the running. Ivan Demidov also went through the St. Petersburg system but he arrived the year after Marchenko jumped to the NHL.
Everything is in place for them to do what they want to get done. They have coaches that know the game. They have coaches who are leaders and are confident men. As I see it they have the most balanced and capable roster in Connor’s time. The 2025 roster was good, but there were too many players that had limitations of some sort. I think there are less of them now. People forget how badly some players struggled, especially in the final
The core players have lost 4 times to teams that won the Cup. The only team that had as much talent was the Avs. They saw how teams that stayed dedicated to the process beat them. I do think that Woody was outcoached both times tactically, and Knob didn’t find the answers for the panthers, but that won’t happen now
So it’s whether or not they will play a mature game, which has eluded them so far. I have said I think a part of that is coaching, the convincing them part. Leading the group firmly, which all of the best coaches do. Keep their heads (mainly Connor’s) in the right space to work through a season, focusing on how they want to play to give them the best chance, preparing for a playoff run
There is a lot to focus on in the now, to work toward, that can keep it interesting enough, not thinking too far ahead. There is a challenge at hand to motivate them – become the kind of regular season dominant team they should have been, and were widely expected to be, for years now
But it’s still up to the players to do it. Bowman has eliminated the main issues that may have held them back as I see it, so there is nothing and no one else to blame. Not that they look to blame, but the only thing left is to execute
I hope Babcock gives minutes to who’s ever deserving of them that particular game. Would it kill the Oilers to start a line other than Connor each period including OT. Babcock has been around will his motivational skills work on a new generation of individuals? Babcock knows that if he can get everyone rowing in the same direction then Bob’s our Uncle.
Or teaching some gamesmanship and game sense. Every time you touch the puck when you need a goal isn’t hero play time
Hopefully activating a more mobile D will open up lanes where Connor and Leon don’t have to waste energy going one or two against three.
An especially fantastic post today, LT.
My hope for the season is to watch both McDavid and Draisaitl drive their own lines and finish the season somewhere around +40 +/- each. Legit two-way, in the Selke conversation worthy seasons.
I have no doubt that they are capable and have the linemates, D pairings, and maybe, system and goaltending, to pull it off.
I think we should be prepared for McDavid/Drai to play together as much as ever, if not more, however, I think it will be more strategic.
Knob would load them up when the team got down a goal or two and they were half way through the game. If it worked, he’d keep them together until the team lost a few.
The new coaching staff has already spoken about the challenges of playing against the load up when on the road and how much easier it is at home.
I think we’ll see more load up at home and Babcock will look to take advtnae of situations and match-ups as opposed to just “well, we are half way through the 2nd and down by two, McDrai, you go”.
A “we hope for the best” post in the middle of summer. I am preparing for the coda.
What do you envision the Oilers’ biggest weakness to be this coming season?
For me it’s 5v5 scoring.
Exacerbated by a third line devoid of offense.
Third line right now is anybody’s guess. Will Nuge land there? Will Ike?
It could be both Nuge and Ike but my hope is Nuge and Kap.
With that said, for all we know, Babcock sees Nuge on the 1st line.
I think Babcock will put little credence in to past deployment and will start fresh with his ideas.
We could see stuff that none of us contemplate.
If this is true, that’s a major problem. Bowman will have to acquire a line driver at the deadline and although Oilers have the cap space, do they have the assets?
If they put Podz down to complete a third line with Dick and Nuge, that could be a highly impactful 2-way third line.
So that’s the exact problem: the Oilers have three reliable wingers (Podz, Hyman, and Savoie) for their top 2 lines.
You can slide one of them down to line 3 with Nuge and Howard and have three scoring lines, but then you have a gap in the top-2.
Dickinson as a 3C is a problem because he doesn’t produce. JD and Joseph on a 3rd line is a black hole.
I don’t see JD successfully pairing with Howard either.
Maybe Nuge has taken a small step back but there isnt a world where Im not referring to him as anything other then a highly reliable winger.
We know that Kap can play in the top six with Drai. Podz/Drai/Kap were 6-0 goals in the playoffs after going 12-3 during the regular season. That is substantial.
For me, I have Howard as the 4th top six winger and I’m confident he can produce in that spot. That allows Kap to go down to “complete” the 3rd line with Dickinson and Nuge. I’d rather have Podz complete that third line as that would make it a potentially highly impactful 2-way 3rd line but I acknowledge Podz likely stays with Drai.
No need too for Joseph on the 3rd line.
I am all for:
Hyman/McDavid/Savoie
Howard/Drai/Podz
Nuge/Dickinson/Kap
Dach/Samaski/Frederic
Joseph
I acknowledge the black hole of offence Dickinson has been recently but he does have a 20 goal season and I think that line can “score enough” to at least saw off against tough competition and I actually love the fourth line – Samanski is ready and has more offence to give.
Unfortunately, I think Samanski may be in the AHL Janmark on the roster (with Dach entering that 4th line).
Then again, maybe I read too much in to what Stauff alludes to but I do think he has the ear of Babcock, they’ve known each other for decades.
For me, it’s the fourth line.
One hope I have is that the club takes advantage of what Shea brings and embraces a quick transition game.
In theory, you have one amazing puck mover (Bouchard), three good ones (Ekholm, Shea, and Walman), and possibly one other good one in Mukhamadullin.
I’d love to see more D activation in the neutral zone and also for the back door play when cycling.
I believe a quick transition game will allow guys like Howard and Savoie to contribute more on the offensive side.
All the puns are on the line this season…
Last chance Texaco
Defence wins championships
Start as you mean to go
Godspeed
Lots of speculation that Babcock brings home the message. Why hasn’t it worked with the other coaches, and what does Mike bring that the others did not? Lots of questions.
One things for certain, Ziggy looks cool as a cucumber supporting that haircut in the heat of summer. Cheers LT!
I think its more about the willingness of the top players to commit consistently to that structure along with an acknowledgement of its requirement as much as anything.
One thing Babcock will almost assuredly do is reduce ice time of McDavid and Drai.
In his last three seasons as Leafs head coach, Matthews all situations time on ice ranged from 17:37 to 18:33 per game.
Babcock publicly criticized McLellan from how much he played McDavid and Drai.
youth will be served if howard and samanski and even dach find full time roles
if rnh and hyman are to old or broken at least they can have their roles deminshed a bit
Hyman had 31 goals in 58 games last year so, while aging in real time, I suspect he’ll remain impactful when in the lineup (which may not be 84 times any more…..)
Nuge had a great first 3 months last season and then fell of the cliff – I heard rumblings of (another) appendage issue. I think he still has some impact left in him but, again, aging.
Thankfully those two barely make more than AJ Greer or Vinny D. and will still be massive value for cap hit I’m sure.
In no particular order, I’m excited to see:
A 3-goalie system is a novel concept.
No more riding the hot hand or playing until you lose … just play each goalie one game, then one game in the presser, and one game as a fresh backup.
84 regular season games means 28 games apiece … a bit more or fewer depending on injuries.
Goalies will begin to be treated like starting pitchers in a rotation.
I’m not sure 3-goalies is that novel, both Carolina and Buffalo had it this past year.
I really don’t know how they will deploy their tenders but I would be very surprised if it’s simply a 3-goalie rotation. I 100% think that credence will be given to current levels of play and riding the hot hand at least a little bit.
I’m most excited about your #4. McD playing 200 feet only means one thing: he will have the puck on his stick more than ever.
I’m basing my hunch on what happened during the only period of consistent 200-foot hockey for the team last season (13 games, Nov 26-Dec 25). McD was 2.79 points/60 minutes (5v5, NST). His average for the season was 1.81/60.
1) I agree 100% it should be in the top six but I have zero idea how Babcock (and Bowman) are planning to run this. I think Bowman knows that Howard is ready for the opportunity and the org would benefit greatly if he can slide in to that top six with two years of ELC left. I’m not sure what Babcock’s thoughts are. I could see Howard in the top 6, on the 3rd line or in Bako – none would shock me.
2) I don’t agree with it but I think there is a large chance Samanski starts in the AHL. This Dach at center thing Stauff was floating out (along with the need to move two of Jone/Joseph/Howard/Samanski/Janmark off to get to get to 23). I think they should run Nue/Dicks (and I would like Podz but likely Kap) as a 2-way third line and run the Frederic/Dack winger combo with Samanski at center. I think we might see Frederic/Dack/Josef.
3) I think every chance will be given for Jarry to be 1A but, ultimately, like their plan for Howard, I really have no sense of their plan for the tenders – I don’t know who starts game 1 let alone game 2 or 5 or 30 or 85.
4) Babcock’s job is to get him to play smarter, not harder. I don’t question McDavid’s try but I question his choices on the back-track and in the defensive zone. He’s got some real Darnell Nurse chase in him – often going to the covered player and leaving a danger guy open. I don’t think a better 2-way game from McDavid even needs to stifle any of his offence.
Stauff had Hutson fairly high on his prospects list which is a bit of a tell for me but all the forwards are well back given the Oilers had 15F (including Jones/Joseph/Howard/Samanski) ahead.
Marjala is so skilled but I think its tough to see him on Babcock’s team this season.
Clattenburg will be in the conversation at camp but no chance to make the team – if he does what he needs to do for a few months, he could be a call-up basked on skill-set.
I’m really excited to get eyes on Tralmaks as a Condor. Michaels is likely someone they try and give heavy 2-way minutes, even as a rookie. Forwards that main value in the amateur ranks is on the defensive side, well, they often have a tough road to the NHL.
I believe Babcock has had teams that succeed and fail in this area. At the end of the day, its on the players to execute the systems Babcock and Smith put in place. Given their history in this area and their verbal re: studying the league over the last 3 years and then the players on the final team to finalize details of the structure, I am confident the team will be given the tools to succeed.
The core of this team has talked strong about committing but they’ve talked before. Their actions (i.e. advocating for Babcock) show real intent. I’m confident we’ll see it and it could be real and spectacular.
Are we sure? I have zero idea what Babcock and Bowman plan for September 29. I could see Ike with Drai, I could see Ike with Dickinson, I could see Ike with Marjala……..
I would like to add Regula in to this mix right beside Spencer Stastney. I think the org does value Regula and he was the Condors’ best d-man after being re-assigned last year, and I think he can play in this league – just not sure it will be with the Oilers.
Truth be told, the 6/7D are set with Emberson/Shakir (subject to an injury) as there is zero chance either of those two are being waived.
Presuming point 1 above comes to fruition, yes, absolutely.
I love those two as a winer duo – they should throw Samanski in the middle and not over-think it. The verbal leads us to believe that Dach could be in the center with, likely Joseph coming in to complete the line and Samanski in Bako. I think Samanski should have the upper hand on the job heading in.
What is the org’s plan with Janmark? Is he “rehabbed and ready” or is he washed?
A definite fit with Drai and Podz, at least for stretches – that line went 6-0 goals in the playoffs (the PK really sunk this team) and 12-3 goal in the regular season.
Those numbers simply cannot be ignored but, at the same time, neither can Howard banging down the door and a much better fit with Drai than Dickinson (and Kap an OK fit on the 3rd line – last year’s Kap, not post-waiver claim Kap the year before, he was awful defensively prior to the playoffs).
LT made his comment about Ike Howard within the ”What we believe to be true” paragraph.
Ok – you have a substantive reply to contribute?
It’s more like , would you care to speculate?
And that’s all it really is.
Hello Sir,
I’m kindly pointing out your post didn’t accurately represent the intent of what was written by our blog author. Yes, I view this as a substantive reply which contributes to the accuracy and quality of the discussion
i wish you a good day.
and I’m kindly wondering if you have anything substantive to add to the conversation, perhaps to drive it back to where you believe it should go?
Vladdy with an RBI single followed by a 3-run bomb by George – day has been very nice so far, thank you. I hope you have a nice day as well.
So I read OP”s post mean:
Are you sure (that Ike getting Ike getting a chance) is something that we think we know; going on to say he has no feel for it being likely.
I can see how it can be read as asking LT if he’s sure might imply that LT has it in the things we know category.
English is imprecise.
I also think that some may be reading too much in to the nuances of a post when, really, its July 26, yesterday’s blog had under 40 total comments and we are looking to stimulate discussion in the dog days.
IMO, LT laid out his thoughts in his post, beautifully and clearly, as per usual.
i felt it important to kindly provide accurate information of what was written in the blog post.