As we join together today, two things are rolling around in my mind. First, the Oilers did a good job this summer. Offloading the Darnell Nurse contract allowed for all manner of moves and the team’s depth chart has rational depth and layers of possible solutions in problem areas.
On the other hand, betting against the Oilers has been good for business in the last 25 years. I think it’s important to write down what we know to be true, believe to be true and acknowledge what we don’t know.
What is true
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard give the Oilers an enormous edge in every game. The top-end support veterans range from exceptional (Mattias Ekholm, Zach Hyman) to very good (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan Shea, Frederik Andersen) to average or a little better (Jason Dickinson, Jake Walman, Connor Murphy, Tristan Jarry).
The young players who have established themselves (Vasily Podkolzin, Matt Savoie) as legit feature players should enjoy substantial careers. As mentioned above, the team took a layered approach to areas of need (like goaltending) and made good bets.
What we believe to be true
Mike Babcock is going to bring discipline to the Oilers in 2026-27. That will impact shot and goal suppression numbers. Ike Howard will get a chance, and is poised to succeed. Two of Shakir Mukhamadullin, Ty Emberson and Spencer Stastney will make up the 6-7 portion of the defensive depth chart. The three goalies will, as a group, improve Edmonton’s save percentage from a year ago. Trent Frederic and Colton Dach should form a substantial tandem on a depth line, driving opposition defensemen to distraction. Kasperi Kapanen will be a solid utility player, moving up and down the lineup.
What we don’t know
We have no evidence the roster players will pay heed to Babcock’s message. The team has, in the past, held the game plan for a period of time, but have never come close to adopting a system and remaining true to it for (say) a two month period.
We have no evidence there is a ‘start as you mean to go’ attitude from the organization. Will the roster be completely set opening night?
We don’t know how the center depth chart will look, especially during periods when McDavid and Draisaitl are together at five-on-five. We are not certain the Oilers will use Dickinson in his best role (defensive center, penalty killer).
We are not at all certain of the group of Bakersfield Condors who thrived in the minors one year ago. It’s possible all of Quinn Hutson, Viljami Marjala, Damien Carfagna, Beau Akey, Connor Clattenburg, Max Jones, Josh Brown and Atro Leppanen have no real impact on any NHL games in 2026-27.
We don’t know if Owen Michaels or Eduards Tralmaks will make a difference in Bakersfield, let alone Edmonton.
We don’t know what happens if this thing breaks. The Oilers standings points totals over the last four seasons (109, 104, 101, 93) is going the wrong way. What happens if that number goes even lower? Is there a backup plan in case the Babcock experiment lasts less than an entire season?
This is a good team, but the heart of the order is moving out of peak years and the top support group is nearing that ‘over 30’ cliff that is such a worry. Can the coaches, players and organization keep things together for one more deep run?
youth will be served if howard and samanski and even dach find full time roles
if rnh and hyman are to old or broken at least they can have their roles deminshed a bit
In no particular order, I’m excited to see:
Stauff had Hutson fairly high on his prospects list which is a bit of a tell for me but all the forwards are well back given the Oilers had 15F (including Jones/Joseph/Howard/Samanski) ahead.
Marjala is so skilled but I think its tough to see him on Babcock’s team this season.
Clattenburg will be in the conversation at camp but no chance to make the team – if he does what he needs to do for a few months, he could be a call-up basked on skill-set.
I’m really excited to get eyes on Tralmaks as a Condor. Michaels is likely someone they try and give heavy 2-way minutes, even as a rookie. Forwards that main value in the amateur ranks is on the defensive side, well, they often have a tough road to the NHL.
I believe Babcock has had teams that succeed and fail in this area. At the end of the day, its on the players to execute the systems Babcock and Smith put in place. Given their history in this area and their verbal re: studying the league over the last 3 years and then the players on the final team to finalize details of the structure, I am confident the team will be given the tools to succeed.
The core of this team has talked strong about committing but they’ve talked before. Their actions (i.e. advocating for Babcock) show real intent. I’m confident we’ll see it and it could be real and spectacular.
Are we sure? I have zero idea what Babcock and Bowman plan for September 29. I could see Ike with Drai, I could see Ike with Dickinson, I could see Ike with Marjala……..
I would like to add Regula in to this mix right beside Spencer Stastney. I think the org does value Regula and he was the Condors’ best d-man after being re-assigned last year, and I think he can play in this league – just not sure it will be with the Oilers.
Truth be told, the 6/7D are set with Emberson/Shakir (subject to an injury) as there is zero chance either of those two are being waived.
Presuming point 1 above comes to fruition, yes, absolutely.
I love those two as a winer duo – they should throw Samanski in the middle and not over-think it. The verbal leads us to believe that Dach could be in the center with, likely Joseph coming in to complete the line and Samanski in Bako. I think Samanski should have the upper hand on the job heading in.
What is the org’s plan with Janmark? Is he “rehabbed and ready” or is he washed?
A definite fit with Drai and Podz, at least for stretches – that line went 6-0 goals in the playoffs (the PK really sunk this team) and 12-3 goal in the regular season.
Those numbers simply cannot be ignored but, at the same time, neither can Howard banging down the door and a much better fit with Drai than Dickinson (and Kap an OK fit on the 3rd line – last year’s Kap, not post-waiver claim Kap the year before, he was awful defensively prior to the playoffs).