When they teach NHL cap structure and best practices at hockey universities in the future, I suspect the collected works of Peter Chiarelli, Ken Holland and Stan Bowman may fill a semester. Everyone makes mistakes, but the list from 2015 summer through recent times is enormous and I’ll guess most certainly cost more than one Stanley.
The unrestricted free-agent signings are the most obvious ones. If we made a list of them, how many would you consider to have had a chance to bring value? I wrote about the best free-agent signings in Oilers history a year ago, and the general manager count is what you might expect:
- Glen Sather 5
- Ken Holland 2
- Kevin Lowe 1
- Steve Tambellini 1
- Peter Chiarelli 1
Now Glen Sather had 20 years to gather his five, but he was also dealing with massive money restrictions the other names didn’t have to worry over (Kevin Lowe, too). Stan Bowman doesn’t make the list yet, but he can approach this summer with room to wheel if the club can offload Darnell Nurse without retention. The San Jose Sharks and Logan Couture’s contract and LTIR status offer a sliver of hope in this area.
The contracts Bowman has signed are the ones that slip through the cracks because they are not technically unrestricted free agents. The Oilers traded for Trent Frederic, and then signed him long term before he hit full free agency. Even if he performs at expected levels (I like the player, but he has been poor as an Oilers winger), he is a third-line player and an eight-year contract is unwise for that portion of the depth chart.
I think the Jake Walman deal could work out if the player can stay healthy.
This is Walman’s player card from Puck IQ, reflecting the 2025-26 season. A 40-percent Dangerous Fenwick versus elites isn’t awe-inspiring, and the 45 percent goal share is also less than ideal. However, if Walman has a veteran partner, one who is RH and can play a sound two-way game, I think the bet is worth it if Walman can play 70+ games and be available for all of the playoff games. That’s a big ask.
So, I think Oilers fans have to wait and see. I know Michael Parkatti will have a strong list for Bowman, but also know general managers trust no one more than themselves. Can Bowman take the advice math offers? I’ve always hoped an analytics-based team would win the Stanley Cup with a bunch of slide rule managers wearing thick glasses in the same summer Edmonton had some walking around money. That possibility exists this summer. Can Bowman embrace analytics for an entire summer? We wait.
Lowetide
What do you think of Gerard Gallant or Alain Vigneault as possible coaches for the Oilers?
Both seem to have been cast aside but were top coaches when coaching.
Gallants style appears to be more holding accountable and letting players play speak for itself but has the history of being slow to make decisions to change tactics.
Vigneault is probably more the style the Oilers would need but does slow play younger players.
Vigneault officially retired 3 years ago after 3 mediocre seasons in Philadelphia.
Who do you think the Oilers should pursue?
One other thought on optimizing the value of your players. Like real life jobs, opportunity and being supported can make or break your career in competitive fields. Besides Nurse, I think Howard is the prime player who the new coach has to assess and see if he can optimize. He’ll probably be the most niche player on the team, at least at first, and finding him the right opportunity to thrive is the difference between another 5 point in 30 game season or perhaps having a more Caufield like trajectory.
I think the other player could be Quinn Hutson. Although not as talented, the way he looks in the O-zone is similar to his brothers – lots of shifty 4 way skating and always looks best attacking from above after a cycle. With his NHL quality shot and 2 way ability, I think there’s a way to maximize his talents and cover up his deficiencies in strength and speed by placing him with speedy forecheckers who can transport the puck in the N-zone and cycle and get him the puck in the O-zone.
I think sometimes we focus a lot more on what we could get that’s better instead of how do we optimize what we have.
Everyone will always look at their own players and say “God I wish we had that, why aren’t you like that?” Rather than look at what their player brings that the other doesn’t.
I believe Bowman had given K.K enough younger skilled players to add to our stars to be a offence force. Yet unless our PP went 2-4 or we scored the 1st goal we were sucking hind tit for most games. Let’s face it the Oilers style was boring trying to clog up the middle leads to boring hockey. I want the new coach to think if you outscore the opposition 7-3 you win the game. Must fans will be happy with a more upbeat style there will always be boisterous crowd that thinks trapping style with 1-0 or 2-1 results with low event hockey is the way to win.
This isn’t a revolutionary post but getting your coach in place and knowing what system they run is just so valuable for pro scouting meetings on who to re-sign and target in trades, free agency, and offer sheets.
If we want to mine for undervalued players, Carolina extracting K’andre Miller out of NY knowing he struggles with zone coverage but is great with man to man is the perfect arbitrage example.
For the Oilers, Cassidy plays zone and the reported second option Laviolette plays man. A very real and timely decision on Nurse could be held up because he also plays well in coverage (Woody) but struggles more in zone. Knowing what structure we’re going to play helps properly evaluate his value to the Oil and I’m sure this extrapolates at least somewhat to the many good and not so good signings we have had over the years.
I’d much rather have a coach that doesn’t come with a set of textbooks and a roadmap to impose on his players. Thats lazy and won’t max out their potential.
The ones that come with a good pair of eyes, a thinking man’s brain and background in every way you can beat another team…that’s what they should be looking for.
I don’t know if they have any idea how to do that.
Two terrible contract decisons in the past have led to the ongoing cap issues for this team.
First was the Lucic signing, awful the day it was signed and proved to be as bad as projected. Cratered cap space and stayed on the books for a long time with the Neal buyout.
The second was the last Kassian contract. Abysmal the day it was signed, zero chance of outperforming that deal and a minute chance of even being value for it. That deal took the cap space that was needed to go longer term with Nurse which would have prevented the current massive deal.
Jack Campbell is a gift that keeps on giving.
Walman was signed to be a top 4 d-man, no doubt.
When he is playing well, he is a legit, he can be a 2/3 dman, he can be very good.
Of course, he is not always at his best, like we say last season, he was quite poor most of the season. Of course, that was primarily injury related as he struggled playing though injury – clearly limited in his mobility. He was better later in the season and in the playoffs.
I have no issues with a healthy Walman as 2LD – Murphy should be a good partner as Jake is high event.
If Nurse is traded, a big if, some of those cap savings need to go to a legit 3LD upgrade. Kulak at $4.75M to anchor a third pairing and move up if injuries present themselves.
The “when” part is problematic. If one has to ask “when”, why is one handing out a 7 year $7 million AAV contract.
Bowman has done two of these “when” contracts with Walman and Frederic. His “when” contracts ultimately cratered the Blackhawks.
Tulsky just goes out and finds better cheaper younger guys when he lost Pesce, Skjei, Orlov, Hamilton, rather than signing anchor contracts.
Don Waddell did most of those, only dealt with Orlov.
Ekholm-Bouchard
Walman-Murphy
Kulak-Emberson
Or maybe even a legit 1LD to play with Bouchard not that Ekholm isn’t legit but someone better. That is with Nurse’s cap hit off the books.
I don’t think that grouping is better than the one that ended the season.
Agreed. But if Ekholm can be upgraded on he would trickle down to one of the second or third pairs and things would look much better.
Upgrading on Ekholm would cost like $7MM plus given what he did last season:
1) played 82 games
2) had 41 points
3) was 12th among all d-men in 5 on 5 points
4) played 36% TOI vs. elites
5) had a 56% goal share and 56% expected goal share
Of course, Bouchard floats all boats and Ekholm is somewhat a function of that but he was a legit top pairing d-man again last season (even if the eye test showed some slowing down, inconsistency and decrease in mobility).
Yes! Trickle that calm expertise down to support younger, more-chaos D. Isn’t that his obvious “elder” role, from now until the cows come home?
If Walman plays to his abilities (and Kulak is back to being Kulak), it might be close bit it also creates another $4.5MM to spend (if Kulak is in the $475MM range).
Moving Nurse out is not going to make the defence better in isolation as its removing an apx $6.5MM player out (I suggest his worth is in that range).
Its how they allocate the new found cap space that will determine if the team is better, right?
There are also plenty of intangibles for instance , Regula, Carfagna, Leppanen, Akey, Jonsson, Ungar, Hutson, Howard even Clattenberg. Savoie & Samanski are already factoring in. If all of a sudden any of these youngsters can contribute in a positive way, that goes a long way to improving the team in a cost efficient fashion.
True. But aside from the injury afflicted post season, the season ended well.
This was not the team that floundered in Oct-Nov 25. (My current broken record: was no one paying attention? Was panic the only option?)
Ekholm is a 1LD.
I just looked at the list of the top 50 dmen by puck empire because it would include most of the top names. Based on current play alone and not age for the moment, there are maybe 15-20 defencemen (LHD and RHD) league wide that I’d want over Ekholm.
Taking age in to account maybe 30 and both the current and with age in account are probably on the high side.
Ekholm is that good. He is that steady when he is healthy and 98% of the time makes the right play. The guy is invaluable in his ability to lead in the way of coaching and seeing the ice defensively and isn’t afraid to step up offensively at the right time.
There might come a time when he isn’t in the future but if you’re switching him out for any of the players above him, you’re giving up something that he does well.
What’s the support for your daily championing of Walman being a legit 2LD?
Well….. he is.
I’ve watched him play and last season’s play is not representative of his abilities – we saw how limited his mobility was most of the season.
What’s kept thia from happening ia EDM’s lack of cap space.
FLA, VGK, COL, TBY, WSH were all Cup winners with very strong analytics departments/input.
I guess Tulaky would be the first math geek GM, but I think Brisebois is closer to that than the other GMs
VGK and FLA have been built by trade and their perception as destination clubs, and no state income tax. They are in on every big name and make smart hockey trades where they can negotiate team friendly contracts. I get that they have good analytics crews, but on the surface the deals are good hockey trades made by traditional hockey men. Doesn’t seem to be the money puck of the Canes.
I guess so, but I’ve always felt the tax situation was a key to the Florida success. I can find a few wobbly trades in Brisebois’ past that suggest (Tanner Jeannot, Barclay Goodrow) he adheres to things that don’t necessarily march in lock step with the numbers.
Nurse posted 47.8 DFF vs elites last season over 450 minutes compared to Walman’s 40.4 DFF over 247 minutes. The sliderule says do not give Walman Nurse’s minutes.
Walman was fine with McDavid, poor away. Suspect you’d find that with all the blue, although Ekholm is something like 60 percent DFF versus elites without the captain. It’s a ridiculous number for Ekholm.
Makes me wonder if they shouldn’t look at Walman-Bouchard (with 97) and Ekholm-Murphy away from 97 in a shut down role.
Stauff isn’t sure if San Jose is a place Nurse would waive for.
It is also highly unlikely San Jose would be interested in Nurse.
The Sharks are laser focused on acquiring RD.
All of these RD, with the exception of Andersson, are likely available.
Darren Raddysh – TBL
John Carlson – ANA
Jacob Trouba – ANA
Rasmus Andersson – VGK
Simon Nemec – NJD
Filip Hronek – VAN
Dougie Hamilton – NJD (vetoed a trade to SJ last offseason)
Should the Sharks want to acquire a LD, Morgan Rielly is nearly $2 million less of a cap hit than Nurse although he too has a NMC.
To my eye, Hronek makes the most sense since his cap hit is only $7,25 million.
Both the Sharks and Canucks have 2 first round picks so they can play mix and match at the draft and the teas have a recent trade history after Vancouver sent Kiefer Sherwood to San Jose for second round picks in 2026 and 2027.
“To my eye”
And there lies the problem. You have a history of needing glasses.
NHL News
@PuckReportNHL
Andrei Vasilevskiy has won the Vezina Trophy for the second time in his career. Here is the full voting table, as selected by the league’s general managers.
https://x.com/PuckReportNHL/status/2063275546532868397?s=20
Last night was the second time I heard Stauff mention the Oilers chose to sign “one of their AHL goalies” over Postsva. Postsva is the goalie that played in the playoffs for Grand Rappids over Cossa. Sounds like the Oilers almost, and could have, signed Postsva.
Tompkins: 31 years old, 6’4 Edmontonian with 6 NHL GP was signed as a UFA on July 1, 2025.
Postava: 25 years old, with zero NA experience 6’ 1”, 205 lbs was signed as a Euro UFA on June 10, 2025.
Postava wouldn’t have made sense with 3 other younger minor league goalies signed.
As alluded to, they may have not signed Day and signed Postsva instead. They could also have, well, not signed Matt Tomkins.
Postava would have been playing in the chaos that was Bakersfield, with Ingram and Tompkins, and then Pickard being dumped on them.
Ungar was the best goaltender (with numbers as good as the Grand Rapids goaltenders in a much worse situation) and got rewarded with a trip back to the ECHL rather than to the NHL.
Why would Postava faired any better than Ungar?
Bakersfield was a mess last year. (And nobody is rushing to sign its coach away for an NHL job. Nobody views him as remotely qualified for the Oilers open job.) There is no organizational goaltender coaching department like many other teams have.
I am sure agents look at how competent an NHL and AHL teams organizations are before signing with a team when they have options.
Another over-rating of a tiny AHL sample size for Ungar. We’ve seen goalies go to the NHL and have exceptional 10 game stretches and then are never seen again.
I hope this is the start of greatness for Ungar (and the org keeps him) but lots not overrated a handful of games.
Let’s also bit forget that Ungar fell off the cliff the last 3-4 AHL games. Jonsson is the more substantial prospect.
What about the tiny AHL sample size for Postava?
Is 33 greater than 13?
I’ve also never championed Postava – I simply posted a factoid about him and the Oilers.
Sounds like most AHL coaches
I think we’ve always known Stauffer is the ultimate insider, mostly giving out select insider info and acting a bit like a propoganda-ist for the Oilers. And we know he has had some pull too as a few of the players he talks up like Ryan and Philp get signed.
I genuinely think he may have gotten a lot more power over the last bit as guests on his show, and even himself, have been overtly insinuating it. Rishaug said something along the lines of “good luck with the coaching interviews” to Stauff and Seravali insinuated that Stauff had talked with Chiareli when he made the McLellan firing. I know he always has made insider like comments on his show but Stauff usually waits until someone is fired before slagging on their decision making. Lately he boasted he was the one who suggested Chris McFarland as a GM replacement to Chia and then stuff like this Postsva decision.
I wouldn’t be shocked if he has the same level of influence as a Senior Advisor to a GM. He is definitely uniquely positioned to be well networked in the game and watches a lot of hockey.