About this time of year I start preparing my reasonable expectations piece. It involves identifying players who will be on the team next season, and then estimating their production. Please read this.
This season will be more difficult than usual, as Mike Babcock will be at the helm of the Oilers for the first time. I’ve been thinking about his options for the top two lines, and about playing Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together. The MacLeish verbal above gives us another reminder (albeit from 50+ years ago) that two scoring lines opens up enormous opportunities.
I can identify the most likely skill forwards by listing points-60 at five-on-five after January 1: Leon Draisaitl (2.91), Connor McDavid (2.49), Matt Savoie (2.23), Kasperi Kapanen (1.8), Vasily Podkolzin (1.79) and Zach Hyman (1.74).
That leaves out Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1.11) and Ike Howard (0.92) and both will receive consideration during training camp, preseason and the first 20 games of 2026-27.
Nuge is important because he’s the obvious No. 2 center if McDavid-Draisaitl play together. However, last season RNH owned a 37 percent goal share (46 expected) away from 97 and 29. That number did improve to 48 percent in the second half (48 also expected), so we have to consider it a possibility.
I don’t think the Nuge will be 2C, but if he does win the job, Babcock will need to run him with strong wingers who can score. Kris Knoblauch placed Hyman and Jack Roslovic on Nuge’s line for just under one hour last season, the trio outscoring opposition 4-1 (!!!) but returning a low 40 percent expected share. I don’t see it working, honestly. So, for the purposes of the reaosnable expectations series, 97 and 29 are on distinct lines because they must.
Once that is established, the roster becomes clear. Centers are McDavid, Draisaitl, Jason Dickinson and Josh Samanski, with Nuge as a No. 3 center during periods when the team needs more offensive weaponry.
The left wingers are Matt Savoie, Vasily Podkolzin, Nuge, Colton Dach and (until he’s offloaded or sent down) Mattias Janmark. The right wingers are Zach Hyman, Ike Howard, Kasperi Kapanen, Trent Frederic and Mathieu Joseph.
Recalls? I’ve chosen Owen Michaels, Eduards Tralmaks, Connor Clattenburg, Max Jones and Quinn Hutson.
I see two scoring lines, a third line that could be a checking trio and a fourth line that could do real damage to opponents. So, it’s Savoie-McDavid-Hyman, Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Howard/Kapanen, Nuge-Dickinson-Joseph and Dach-Samanski-Frederic for me.
If Babcock wants three lines who can threaten offensively, or if he wants to run 97-29 together, Stan Bowman needs to find him a center.
How can the Edmonton Oilers add more skill forwards to their prospect system?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7438613/2026/07/12/edmonton-oilers-prospects-forwards-skill-add/
Thanks. I especially appreciate the history and the comparisons between GMKH and GMSB, how the handling of the situations they’re given.
What’s not stated, but everyone in Oilerville feels hanging over our heads, is “whither McD?” So every decision is heavily weighted with that consideration. That’s led to short term, win-now solutions that haven’t solved the Cup, or the McD question.
My interest is in whether GMSB is building for a future (this coming season, the next 3-5 seasons), regardless of “whither McD?”
Draisaitl is here, potentially long term. TDL hires Murphy, Dick, Wallman are not short term rentals. GMSB has picked up underperforming first round picks (Podz, Jones, Makhumadullin) for cheap. One has proven himself. The other showed something end of season. The other? Meanwhile, Savoie is performing and Howard looks like part of the near and mid-term future.
My greatest anxiety as a fan is that what looks to me like a build-while-contending gets sabotaged by win-now. I am hoping that the skill-forward-add is part of the build, as much as it is part of winning now 🤞
ps. One of your Athletic commentators is of the opinion that, if McD goes, the owner will tear it all down. Given the difficulties posed by star-driven trades and offer sheets, and given this fanbase’s experience, that seems like a poor business option. Better to be always in build mode.
Anyone ever paid to look at the “All Three Zones” website content?
Can we not make a shutdown line with Dickinson Podkolzin and one of Kapanen or Joesph. Give them 20 minutes vs oppositions top line.Twenty plus for Savoie Draisaitl and McDavid. Limited protected minutes for RNH Hyman and Howard. Samanski Frederic and Dach get to manhandle the other teams bottom six
i’m in. I mean let’s try stuff.
A good face-off man from both sides on the same shutdown line to eat the minutes from opposition best while giving Connor-Leon line or lines fresh air sounds like the play. Yet K.K and Woody-Tippett did not go in this direction. I didn’t like the Babcock hire but I’m starting to like hearing about giving players a specific job. I’m most excited about players like Frederic-Dach-Dickinson let’s see how Babcock uses the grunts.
Shutdown lines are for losers. Three scoring lines and a 4th line that one can safely put out on the ice and survive is how to contend.
Exactly so.
Dominant third lines were features of the most recent cup winners and the league is following suit.
This is probably the best option if they are deadset on playing McDrai together.
And this may actually be their plan. DJ said when he was coaching against us thar it was easier for him to coach against McDrai on one line when the Oilers were on the road as he could just put his top pair against them and that was the only line you had to worry about. But when the Oilers were at home and DJ was on the road, it was harder to coach against them when they were on one line.
I’ve suggested Podz with Dickinson on a “hard minutes line” providing space for Howard in the top 6.
The likes of Podz and Kap can always be put back with Drai – I don’t think they need to be locked in as his wingers (as good as that trio was last season with 12-3 goals (regular season) and 6-0 in the playoffs.
No quarrel with the math or using math as a starting point. After adding Babcock to the equation, how does the below compute, on the premise of increasing the fourth line’s ice time? Basically, see if Nuge can keep up for a bit and/or give a kid line a whirl.
Nuge-McD-Hyman
Pod-Drai-Kap
Savoie-Samanski-Howard
Dach-Dickinson-Frederic
Play the youth, let the cap space build, watch Pittsburg wash out, trade for one of their top 2 centers.
👆🏻
There has been speculation that Anaheim may get revenge on the Flyers by sending the Penguins reinforcements.
Pittsburgh has almost $17 million in cap space and could easily absorb a couple if veterans while picking up a couple of sweeteners from the Ducks who have 3 second round picks in the next draft.
Stauff’s tweet on Dach mentions “Played mostly wing at the NHL level, but has played a lot of center at different levels.”
He did mention a few weeks ago the potential for for Dach at 4C.
I’m getting the feeling that, without injuries, Samanski could be starting the season in Bako….
I hear you on that. However this is how we lose younger prospects. I don’t think Janmark or Jones should be playing ahead of Samanski. There has to be a way to have a spot in the lineup for him.
I’m more concerned with losing Howard by re-assigning him for any length of time after he did everything asked of his last year and banging down the door.
Howard is not an energy player he’s not the right fit in Edmonton. The good part is loots of teams will have time for Howard on the PP.
They have to commit to Howard being in the top 6 or look to move him, needs to be decided before management washes out his value and he’s sold for futures.
Lots of fits for Howard on the Oilers.
Howard is a good fit. He’s stocky and seems to carry a confidence level that suggests to me he won’t back down from anything. US players love big moments. He can skate and has a shot. He works
The only thing I can see as a problem is if he wants more than the s available and in the next few seasons reasonable. There is a spot on the PP for him, it’s just not there yet. He’s young, he can wait, and he can look at Puckpedia and see Nuge and Hyman won’t be there forever
He can play on a team that will contend for years, with two of the best C’s in the world. He will have more patience for this team than many. It is league leading in amenities and provides a lot more than a lot of teams can. If he spits the bit Stan will trade him
Savoie and Howard are not the same player nor should they go through the same pro trajectory. I’ve mentioned it a 100 times why trade your A-1 dream 3-C that was hand picked for a scoring winger if your not going to commit to playing Howard to 6 PP-2 to begin with. Howard is a star player that needs an audience not as a 4th liner that’s what Clattenburg is for. We waisted Howard last year watch Howard come out of the gate scoring if he’s put in the top 6 Babcock no dummy if the kid can score and isn’t a defensive liability he will play. If the plan is to bury him in Bakersfield then trade him now.
Don’t sell yourself short, my friend.
Howard is currently not a star player, he is a second year pro coming of a very good development year, mostly in the AHL, that looks ready to establish himself as an NHL player
Howard has never been a fourth liner for the Oilers – his most common lineupates last season were Matt Savoie and Jack Roslovic who you thought should have been in the conversation for the US Olympic team. You keep talking about Howard being buried o the 4th line and ingnore the facts as present – its essentially lying as you know its not true.
It’s absolutely mind-boggling that one can be provided the information of what Howard was asked to do and did in his development season last year and thinks he was being wasted. Howard is much more likely to hit his ceiling as an NHL player because the org did him the privellege of helping him develop.
I don’t know why one would presuppose he doesn’t get PP2 time if on the roster, that is odd.
Score metrics! How could Howard average less than 10 minutes a game while Roslovic and Savoie were well over.
Fair point, I share that concern. This is why he didn’t want to stay in Tampa. That would be the poorest of asset management. I agree with Devil’s Lettuce, committ or move him for a player they deem to be a better fit.
Should have kept O’Reilly if you didn’t see a better landing zone than the treatment Howard received last year. Howard still does hold value he’s American and he has promise as a scorer in the NHL. Bowman should trade him unless Babcock wants to be committed to playing the kid in more meaningful minutes than K.K could muster up.
Knob had Howard as a raw rookie pro.
Babcock has him coming off 30 NHL games and a great year of AHL development.
I don’t know how Babcock is going to use Howard but he’s getting a different and more mature and developed player than Knob had.
No matter what Babcock does with Howard it’s going to be interesting as he is only one story line of many different ones. I kinda use the young Hyman as the starting point. If you have your head down ass up you get ice-time. Not everyone is going to hit it off with the no nonsense Babcock. Some players will slowly be faded where others will get a push.
When Howard came back up he was nhl ready. Maybe he could have got there anyway but his ahl time didn’t hurt him. He’s ready now and needs to play top 6 plus pp time.
Same could be said about McDavid. Just think how good Connor would have been with another year in Junior and two years in Bakersfield. The trade shouldn’t have happened if the play was to slow play Howard for a 1.5 years when you could have slow played O’Reilly a more balanced projected centre instead.
Balanced with playing the best players, and if they see him as benefiting from more development time in the A. He’s at 24 NHL games, 4 pts. Dach had 4 in 8 games. If they keep him down in the last year of his contract (season after this one) he’ll probably leave
A year ago there was hope that Fred could be the big two way right shot center we wanted forever. Not really talk of that now.
Being able to train properly this off season may get him back to an option at center.
Frederic shoots left
Whoops. My bad.
I think you’re right OP. Also, we will see Sammy play 40+ games this season.
Sammy, like Jones and Janmark are in tough to make the 13-man forward group, IMO.
Dach signs for 2 years with an AAV of $1.2 million.
About time they signed him.
Its July 12 – this is early.
Exactly where one would expect this on a 2-year deal.
I hope he can stay healthy maintaining and aggressive style of play – he has the potential to move up to 3W in due course.
Love me a Frederic-Dach-Clattenburg (Jones) Hopefully this line will be a thing by the Panther game as you know the Tkachuk will love tomfoolery against McDavid-Leon
Oilers need to get serious, put Howard and Savoie on the trading block for a quality left winger for McDavid.
Asap.
The only thing that bothers me about Savoie & Howard is their size. I noticed Savoie is the only player on the current expected roster that’s under 6′, not that it really matters, but maybe it does IMO. That is why I can agree to a certain degree. If it’s true there’s mutual interest in the signing of Anthony Mantha then I could see one or both of them being expendable trade bait.
I mentioned the other day about another player I feel they should target in a trade, Mark Kastelic he’s a cap hit of $1.57M until the end of 2028. With Mantha & Kastelic on the roster the Oilers would be functionally heavy and fast . That’s something I’d love to see.
Mantha ($4M x 2)-McDavid-Hyman
Podz-Leon-Kapanen
Nuge-Dickinson-Joseph
Jones-Kastelic-Frederic (The Bruin line)
Samanski
Ekholm-Bouchard
Walman-Murphy
Shea-Emberson
Mukhamadullin
Anderson
Jarry
Levi
No Dach, pass.
5 players on the Hurricanes playoff roster were under 6 foot tall. Two of them were defenseman.
Make that make sense.
100% disagree,
The Oilers need to continue to leverage Savoie’s ELC value deal and do the same with the last two years of Howard’s ELC.
OK, fine, lets think about doing this.
A team that is going to trade an established top 6 LW for young up and coming defeloping skilled forward would be a team re-building/re-toolng right now and not looking to “win now”.
So, you want to trade these guys for:
1) Coronato or Zary or Frost from Calgary?
2) For Nichushkin or Garland from Columbus?
3) Raquel or Rust from Pit?
4) DeBrusk?
5) Tyler Bertuzzi off Chicago?
6) Vilardi from the Jets?
What’s the deal?
I would think about a Valardi deal but he’s got a big cap hit (biggish) that runs in to the next McDavid contract.
Frank Vatrano, Alex Killorn and perhaps Chris Kreider are avalabile.
Are the Oilers in win now mode or not?
Vatrano is absolutely not coming to Canada.
Vatrano of the seven team no trade clause?
The Oilers are definitely NOT trading Howard or a 1st, let alone both.
Issac Howard can highly likely outsource Alex Killorn at this stage.
Ken Holland is in LA now
Maybe 50%, not 100% IMO.
Savoie had a hat trick final game of the season with mcdavid.. wow short memories dude was comin on!
This might be the dumbest comment I’ve seen in awhile.
Savoie produced at a 1st line left winger when he was there for the later half of the season.
Trade away their young and upcoming players for another player on a high cost contract that is older and then people will complain that they’re old and slow again.
There’s no winning. It’s like you it’s possible to have 40-50 goal scorers on all 4 wing positions.
Let’s stop over reacting Peter Chiarelli.
I expected Jones to make a bigger impact out of camp last year, but he did not, there was just too many tryouts going on and too many players getting lost.
He has the tools and when he applies them he comes out flying and he does everything that you wanna see. He adds value.
Then he seems to fizzle. Now I don’t know if that’s a Jones thing or that was a coach thing.
If it is Jones thing where we may expect the same. In which case you run him for 6 games to get the best out of them, swap them with another streaky player.
that other player could be a vet that needs her arrest to play at their peak, or a rookie that needs time to digest their games before going back in to lineup, Possibilities include Nuge, or Howard, maybe Yanmark or a wild card like Kane joining the team. To come out of the line up for a few games should not be considered an insult if it keeps energy up across the line up.
If it was a coach thing well then who knows what will happen this year new coach, new eyes, new roles and responsibilities etc. A player like Jones is interesting. Smart coach could take his top and play and trim him back when he’s struggling rather than just say well he’s struggles or he’s inconsistent so we won’t be bothered with him.
I believe the verbal on Jones coming in was exactly this. Very uneven, looks like an NHL player for 4-5 games and then disappears. Probably does have to do with the way he plays when he’s going all out.
I feel like some team is going to figure out an effective way to rotate players off for a game here and there, and could do well by it. Our top guys all looked like ghosts by the time we hit the playoffs. The Olympics, compressed schedule and back to back SCFs probably played a big part, but that speaks even more to the importance of trying to spot guys a break during the season
I agree. Jones is part of what I see as the ongoing build. Give him occasion to thrive. Do not sell cheap.
While I agree generally there are only so many positions available.
I’d have Howard Samanski dach ahead of jones. Probably Joseph too.
I’d give Clatt a good chance too but he’ll probably have to start on the farm.
The last we saw Clatt, he was playing 4th line in the AHL behind ECHL call-ups, hurt and then unable to get back in the lineup for the playoffs when ready….. also in a walking boot at development camp recently.
He’ll prob get on of the few exhibition games if he’s healthy enough.
I’m of a similar opinion, re Howard Sam Dach (I know nothing about Joseph). My point is that I’d like to find ways to keep this player involved.
Jones is best when he’s involved. The only problem is these types of players (jones) will get penalized whether it’s a real penalty or a made up call. K.K had no time for the grunts.
Is a Stastney for Poehling structured trade something to think about/kick tires on?
I’m not saying that is equal value player for player but it saves the Ducks over $2MM and gives them a serviceable 3rd pairing d-man.
I know, I know (and they know) that Stastney may be available on waivers but they need to move cap out. Stastney plus a B prospect or mid round pick for Poehling?
Seems like an ok player, but do they need another left shot forward? To me get a RS face off guy or stand pat
I like this train of thought. Nice suggestion.
Anaheim has superior defensive prospects ready to play, and playing them and living with the growing pains is far superior than trading for such a limited player like Stastney.
Yep.
Anaheim’s top prospect is 20 year old LD Stian Solberg.
The 6’2” 205 Norwegian spent a full season in San Diego and has Olympic and World Championships experience.
Tristan Luneau, Tyson Hinds and Noah Warren are also in the running for NHL roster spots.
Geez Louise… a whole herd of d-men destined to be Brogan Rafferty’d…
Right? All the Ducks’ prospects are the very bestest ever, each and every one of them.
Just like the Kings celebrated centre depth… oh how we were forewarned about that future wave of destruction.
None of those listed prospects are anything of significant except Solberg who they likely want to keep developing on the proper league.
They very much could have interest in Stastney as the most experience bottom six option.
Not to mention, completely ignoring the high level premise for the move and the fact the Oilers would add a 2nd piece.
Good Grief with the anti-Oiler narratives on everything and anything. What a pastime – trolling.
Also Stolberg was a -16 and only marginally better offensively than Beau Akey.
Not sure if he’s as ready to go as Godot and Harper’s Hair would like to make him out to be.
DJ Smith spoke about it being tough to play against the Oilers when they loaded up McDavid/Drai on home ice but not a big issue when the Oilers were on the road – spoke about getting match-ups against them.
I think we need to expect McDavid/Drai together at 5 on 5 more than we seem to talk about which clearly leaves Nuge at 2C, right?
Nuge/Hyman were 8-2 goals in the 2025 playoffs, 4-1 with Kane and 4-1 away from Kane (and 4-1 away from McDavid).
Podz/Nuge/Hyman were 2-1 goals in the most recent playoffs – think I would run that when there is load up and think about Howard with McDavid and Savoie/Kap with Dickinson.
Of course, someone like Frederic having a great start to the season can get him in the top 9 conversation.
Nuge is eroding. Address it now or address it later, it’s happening.
Does a trade fall under the category of “addressing”?
Yes, but No. 2 centers are really expensive. YOU HAVE ONE, and he is the best one. Seriously. The Oilers are silly.
I believe Woodcroft said that the centre depth of the team was akin to a spine, and they were going to build the line up along the spine. We are still waiting.
I think the 2 deep playoff runs had a big impact on Nuge last season. The longer rest this off season offers an opportunity to slow down the “eroding.” Maybe he has one more quality season to give.
Didn’t he get a 3 week Olympic break?
Nuge started last season VERY strong but his game fell off a cliff right around (kinda during) his 1000th game. I heard rumblings from a prominent/respected member of the Oilers blogosphere (and our host) of broken/banged-up appendage…..
Further to your point (and also because I’m curious about how Nuge’s return from injury after Nov 26 coincided with the team’s best run, Nov 26-Dec 25:
In the first 15 games of the season (prior to Nov 26) he was 1.49/60
In the 13 games after his return from injury (Nov 26-Dec 25) he was 2.18pts/60
In the 13 games after (Dec 26-Jan 18, his 1000th game) he was 1.51/60
In the subsequent 13 games (Jan 19-Mar 5) he was 1.02/60.
All numbers 5v5, NST.
I wonder if Savoie with the right wingers( Podz Fred?) could slip into the centre position. He only lacks the size to be ideal.
Hopefully Samanski can push past Dickinson and Nuge.
I don’t see nuge as a center other than very short stints.
Savoie does have that center pedigree but, in the Oilers’ org, its been almost exclusively wing – he played 4-5 games at center as a Condor but only when they were decimated at the position by injury and call-up.
I don’t think they see him as an option at center and size probably factors in to it – I think they’d used Dach and Frederic at center before him (Stauff continues to be on the Dach at center train).
Sure but I think he have to acknowledge that McDavid and Drai WILL play together here and there – maybe more, maybe less, than we think.
I think Nuge at 2C in those situations over Dickinson, Samanski, Frederic, Dach and Janmark makes sense.
I’m just being realistic in knowing that he will play 2C this season at times.
I’m not sure if I see Joseph on the starting lineup. I think if Howard is on 2R, then Kap is on 3R. If Kap is our 2R, then I could see TF with Dickinson and Howard breaking in on the 4 line to start.
Joseph is going to surprise people. He’s an effective player.
The coach being new makes it murky. Many seem to really focus on offense looking at usage. For the top pair and two lines in yes they have to produce, or they wouldn’t be those things
But it’s not the same for the bottom two pairs and lines. You want them to produce, but it’s not the whole thing. A GM doesn’t sign guys to deals with term and millions to not use them. Or players that are not playing time in the AHL anymore
There are too many F and D that won’t be happy to go down or won’t clear. SB wants competition and it will be interesting to see how he negotiates it. I can’t see JD being the 4C, but I can see the bottom two lines getting more even TOI and the Duo reduced. Amd the 3rd pair playing more to reduce Ekholm in particular
This all goes out the window if the team shows up ready to be a dumpster fire again. Babcock won’t stand for it, but he also won’t want a big hole to dig out of until he can get it going how he wants. If they don’t want to play well until Christmas again, it will get interesting, MB might not make it through that without messing up
I think Joseph is on the team but could be 13F.
Remember 3 of the follow 5 will be on the team but only 2 in the lineup – subject to injuries:
Jones, Joseph, Janmark, Samanski, Howard
Its hard to imagine Jones ahead of Joseph given Joseph has accomplished more in the NHL with a 30 plus point season and being a very good defensive player and PK guy and very fast.
I have zero idea what their plan is with Janmark. I can see him waived but I can also see them thinking he’s a lock for the team being healthy (presumably) for the first time in two years. If KK was coach, I would think lock.
I believe Jackson signed Janmark to his 3-year extension, not Bowman.
Joseph is a lot like Kapanen. He has underwhelmed pretty much everywhere he has been, but has a broad range of skills. Like Kapanen, he has actual NHL level ability.
I’d compare Joseph more to Janmark. He’s extremely consistent fourth line player that can fill in at a third line situationally.
Kap is much different to me. He looks like a legit second line two way power forward then fades to a non nhl player randomly.
I’m confused. Is Joseph underwhelming, or extremely consistent?
He’s hard working, solid defensively and useful on the PK, not a whole lot of offense.
Thanks. I see your comment re Janmark now too.
Janmark was a superior player when at the same age. Janmark is four years older.
It’s possible Janmark might still surprise since he’s been surgically repaired and it’s a contract year. Though I think they may want to clear his cap space.
I agree. I’d move on from Janmark and Joseph can replace him when needed as the 13 forward that you know exactly what you’ll get from.