The Edmonton Oilers play tonight in Anaheim against the Ducks. Both teams have a win and Game 3 is considered pivotal right up until Game 4. As in baseball, a 1-1 count in hockey means we’re too early in the at-bat to really know how this is going to go. Now, after tonight, one of these clubs will have two wins. If you have ever watched baseball, you know the difference between a 2-1 count and one ball, two strikes is massive. Big game tonight for Edmonton’s future. Please read this.
I think Kris Knoblauch will move Matt Savoie off the top line tonight. I also believe Jason Dickinson will play this evening. He’s the closest to being ready (Henrique didn’t make the trip according to reports) and the club will want a veteran pivot for EV and PK work. Dickinson wasn’t a strong option during the regular season at five-on-five (5-10 goals) but scored twice in Game 1 versus Anaheim and teams like to tweak after a loss.
Meanwhile, Josh Samanski was 11-9 goals during the regular season five-on-five and is 1-0 so far this spring in the playoffs. He has also scored a goal in this series. For me, the best spot for Samanski would be in the middle with Colton Dach and Trent Frederic. Two rookies, and Kris Knoblauch may choose another route, but I think it happens if the team moves Nuge up to replace Savoie on the McDavid line.
Special teams have to improve and I think we can expect the power play to deliver tonight. Connor McDavid hasn’t scored a point in this series, and it’s normally around this point in time when the captain says to hell with this noise, sets his jaw and posts some quality crooked numbers. My guess is we see it tonight.
I think we should be prepared for McDavid-Draisaitl at five-on-five for extended periods if Dickinson plays. That moves Nuge to 2C, then Dickinson followed by Samanski. I think it’s a mistake, but every Oilers coach goes to it sooner than later. There’s a good chance Knoblauch grabs the hammer and breaks the glass to put out the fire.
OILERS FIVE-ON-FIVE GOAL SHARE (CENTERS)
- Leon Draisaitl 29 minutes, 4-2 goals
- Connor McDavid 28 minutes, 1-1 goals
- 97 and 29: 5 minutes, 0-0 goals
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 14 minutes, 1-1 goals
- Jason DIckinson 10 minutes, 2-1 goals
- Josh Samanski 9 minutes, 1-0 goals
- Adam Henrique 3 minutes, 0-0 goals
- The rest: 6 minutes, 0-0 goals
The four lines are in zero trouble five-on-five so far in the series. The coach should leave them alone. Two games, one of which resulted in a win, is far too small a sample. Wheat kings and pretty things, let’s see what tomorrow brings.
OILERS FIVE-ON-FIVE GOAL SHARE (DEFENSE)
- Nurse-Murphy 32 minutes, 3-1 goals
- Ekholm-Bouchard 29 minutes, 1-1 goals
- Walman-Emberson 18 minutes, 2-0 goals
- Connor Ingram 38 of 42, .905SP
I wouldn’t change a thing. A coach who is forced to rely on Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard to break out of a two-game dry spell is the most blessed coach alive. I hope he knows it.
On the Lowdown today, Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast joins us to talk about the series, with special emphasis on goaltending and special teams. We’ll discuss NFL draft, the Blues Jays and NBA playoffs, too. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Five areas Edmonton Oilers need to improve in series against Anaheim Ducks
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7222331/2026/04/24/five-areas-edmonton-oilers-need-to-improve-in-series-against-anaheim-ducks/
Thanks. Interesting numbers, and interpretations, as always.
In the goalie metric that matters, WIN%, Dostal and Ingram are tied.
I am impressed with what I’ve seen of Dostal, even though his 5v5 SV% is considerably lower than Ingram’s. That said, I’ve liked Ingram’s game. (I had to shake my head when an analyst I respect [not you, LT] showed two “skilled” goals by Oilers on Dostal, then critiqued two “too long” shots that got by Ingram — to my eye, reviewing the video, almost identical shots from distance. Skilled shooting is skilled shooting. Screens are screens. Luck is luck. Don’t blame the goalie on one end when you’re praising the shooters on the other, for near identical plays.)
Your comments on PK SV% are, I believe, less an indictment of Ingram than the PK units —which suffer greatly without Henrique. Who is the youngster to step into his skates? I hope we find out, soon.
Also, rebounds. Ingram, until these two games, was notable for “swallowed” pucks. But the Ducks seem to have found a way to trigger the gag reflex. Or has Ingram changed something? I’m betting on Q and the Ducks.
ps. I sent you a message yesterday, about April 23, 1971 and the release of a great Stones album. I’m not as much of a fan as you, but I do appreciate Sticky Fingers. I’m surprised you haven’t given us a reference, yet.
Pps. Tonight I’d like to see some Oilers swagger, cue “Bitch” from that Sticky Fingers album. For the Glimmer Twins (on their own lines), from the Glimmer Twins.
Spicy, I like it!
LFG!
I didn’t get the message. Did you email yet?
Per Tony B:
EDM lines & pairings — Friday’s Morning Skate:
RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Kapanen
Savoie – Samanski – Roslovic
Dach – Lazar – Frederic
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Murphy
Walman – Emberson
Ingram
Jarry
—————-
With no Dickinson (sigh), I’m good with this.
Nuge doesn’t “deserve” a promotion to the top line but Kap didn’t “deserve” a promotion to the Drai line heading in to the playoffs. Savoie looked his best in the playoffs on the third line and Nuge has a history of success with McDavid – even if it hasn’t been great this season. Perhaps giving McDavid the familiarity will help him?
Dach/Frederic togehter makes sense and the two middle lines both have showed well.
Lets go!
I like putting Nuge back up with 97 and Hyman. This line hasnt been together in a while and they have been known to catch fire. Nuge needs a boost right now. 97 needs a little boost. Here we go!
GO OIL.
Frankly, I think either of the bottom 2 lines can cook too. It would be good to see 93 elevate his play tonight, as I think he is capable of helping. He has done a good job of holding the zone and winning board battles in games 1 and 2, which is not something Savoie does as well (his thing is hounding players to give up the puck, but that hasn’t been as helpful to 97 so far).
Coach says Dickinson is a game time decision.
It’s a beautiful place to imagine, here. Like imagine doubting 97’s intelligence or hockey IQ?, and I ain’t saying that anyone is. It just feels that way sometimes, you know a gut feeling. And the thought has crossed my mind too.
Evaluating his play, and some of his tendencies, sure, complete fair game. But this means taking all things into account, as he is, after all, a mere human and not, contrary to popular belief, perfect. He’s as inevitable as all the greats in hockey, baseball, football, soccer etc. I’m a huge baseball fan, and know the 2-1 count very well. Some guys – not many – thrive when facing that count. He’s one of those rare guys. I want him at the plate with two strikes and no balls in extra innings in the World Series Final. All…the…time…he’ll hit the home run or extra base hit….as close to a guarantee as one can get
Enjoy the game folks…it’s cool just to be here, cheering on this incredible player and fun team. 29 is also pretty awesome and I’d sure as hell want him at the plate in the same World Series game too 🙂
I wonder if we’ll ever have a serious discussion about the fact that as Connor has grown, he is more likely rather than less to disappear for full periods or games. He may have also already played the defining stretch of his playoff career. And it wasn’t good. I sure hope not, but the current run and track record in the games that could have hung banners is atrocious for a true superstar.
Any attempt to discuss almost immediately devolves into a BS “how dare you” session.
I also wonder if we’ll ever talk about how they have never found a coach that can actually work properly with him. They found coaches to get through to Gretzky, Messier, Kurri, Coffey…not to mention the superstars of other teams.
All too often the answer with 97 is something along the lines of “what would I have to tell him?”
Sather, Bowman (the elder), Arbour…none of them would have answered that way.
Yeah, its pretty BS to go down this road. One day everybody will blame McDavid don’t worry. For not bringing championships. Regardless of of where he has dragged this team and put Edmonton back on the map. “His defining stretch wasn’t good” No matter how much he gives, it wont be enough.
Maybe we pay homage to Mathew Tkachuk? Who, while he isn’t near as good, is still much better right?
haha – you are correct LMHF – how dare you!
For the record – #97 is a plus player in zero of his last 6 playoff games, and has all of 2 points. And zero in games 6 and 7 of 2024 of course.
These are facts. Numbers. Yet they are treated as an unspeakable personal affront.
The man is the best player of the last 10 years…yet this has happened. We should wonder why! This appears to be much less about “he’s flawed” and much more about “they’re screwing him up”.
Unspeakable facts
McDavid all time points per game in the playoffs, 3rd.
Glorious numbers.
Which makes those numbers more inexplicable, not less.
Being concerned about an extremely small sample size that can be blown away with the next game out is an interesting take.
If the coach was watching and capable, he’d play the real #1 line as the #1 line and go from there. 92-29-42
This isn’t new. Leon is better in the playoffs. Not by miles, but he is the better of the playoff stars. Especially in terms of consistency.
The game goes off the rails these days when they load up and overplay 97, forgetting there are usually other players going on a given night.
Game 2 was a coaching loss. He had the horses, they were running, and he sent them to the barn.
The PK killed them because they lost their 2 PK centres in 1 game.
29 having success and 97 struggling are not mutually exclusive. Lacombe-Trouba have been a strong pairing against 97. Who benefits from that?
Draisaitl is a playoff beast, absolute unit yet the numbers say McDavid does have 5 more points in the same amount of playoff games played.
5 on 5 play has been fairly even but the Oilers have dominated to a tune of 8-4 goals (7-4 with McDavid off the ice). I know it hasn’t “looked great” and there have been breakdowns and poor puck management and disconnected offence but, even with all that and even with McDavid, Hyman, Ekholm, Bouchard and Nuge all struggling hard, they have outscored 8-4.
They also looked much better on the PP last game, adjusted on zone entires and were unlucky not to score – Oilers have more expected goals on their PP than the Ducks do on theirs.
Oilers have a long history of being meh in the first two games, they haven’t gone up 2-0 in the 1st round since the 80s (0-2 four times and 1-1 sixteen times). Last year they were down 2 games and, get this, the PP had zero goals.
Yes, I know, biased and rose-colored but, eff it, I’m and Oilers fan!
Look forward to tonight!
Yup , the only thing they need to do is get the special teams going . I mean how can the Ducks not win when they score two power play goals and one short handed goal. Edmonton basically gift wrapped the game two win for Anaheim.
Do you think Kapanen will be able to sustain a 22.2% shooting percentage?
His 2 goals, Dickinson’s 2 and 1 each from Samanski and Murphy account for more than the actual 5V5 goal differential “domination”.
Do you think McDavid and Bouchard will sustain their 0 S%? How about Roslovic, RNH and Savoie?
Go away.
Do you think career 8.5% shooter Ryan Poehling will be able to sustain a 66.66 shooting percentage?
Imbecile.
There is no doubt Woody has greater insider knowledge than most coaches across the league but it shouldn’t result in a significant advantage. Teams are scouted to death. Every other coach knows how to contain McD and our PP. But we still find a way because of the level of talent and human/other factors (e.g. fatigue, poor decision, lucky bounce).
It isn’t like Woody stole corporate financials, programming codes, and acquisition targets. The Oil strategy is available for all to see.
Go Oilers!
I think we should be prepared for McDavid-Draisaitl at five-on-five for extended periods if Dickinson plays. That moves Nuge to 2C, then Dickinson followed by Samanski. I think it’s a mistake, but every Oilers coach goes to it sooner than later. There’s a good chance Knoblauch grabs the hammer and breaks the glass to put out the fire.
I mentioned this as a likelihood after Game 1 and was mostly met with disfavour. I agree on both points — not the right response but likely to happen. The easiest way to get McDavid the clean ice he needs is to have a superstar on the ice you can’t ignore. 3 men on McDavid any time he touches the puck isn’t realistic if Draisatl is on the sheet. The option is made easier in this series because the secondaries are winning their battles. Part of that has been the Draisatl line but I think Coach pays that price to get McDavid unlocked.
*tinker-McDavid-Hyman
Podzilla-Drai-Kap
*tinker-*tinker-Roslovic
Fredric-Sammy-Dach
*tinker = Nuge or Savoie and who isn’t with 97 + Dickenson or Lazar
This is the way. KK won’t do it
I don’t love Roslovic with McDavid, but I do like a second puck transporter for that line. I wonder if that would make a difference. Roslovic is not scared to shoot the puck either.
Just like the Wild, the Oilers are playing fine at 5v5 but special teams are killing them.
I do wonder about Woodcroft being an assistant being an asset for the Ducks.
Reminds me of when the Raiders were in the Superb Owl playing against their old coach Gruden and didn’t change their playcalls.
He must be especially for defending our PP as I don’t think it’s changed that much since he was here.
It would be nuts to breakup Podkolzin Draisaitl Kapanen when that is the whole point of having two lines that each can win the series on their own.
The point is to win, not to coddle McDavid.
Kapanen becomes a relatively useless player unless he is playing with Draisaitl. McDavid and Draisaitl together reduces the number of effective players and lines.
Nugent-Hopkins McDavid Hyman
Podkolzin Draisaitl Kapanen
Savoie Samanski Roslovic
Dach Lazar Frederic
(if Dickenson is NOT available).
Play McDavid on multiple lines, between Savoie and Roslovic, and between Dach and Frederic. Samanski is sufficiently reliable to flex between lines as McDavid is used tactically on multiple lines to escape the hard Lacombe Trouba match.
Why not try McDavid between the Bash Bro’s on occasion as a change-up? To soften up Lacombe and Trouba.
Efforts to make McDavid unpredictable should be encouraged. The team is good enough. Float him through lines, create some chaos. If he is hurting, and he likely is, then don’t wear him out, but play him strategically. Sounds like a fine idea.
Beautiful
And where does Dickinson fit? Between Dach & Frederic?
there’s a joke here I’m not funny enough to make.
Fully agreed. 97 with Bash is the ultimate throwback line change of pace.
If it worked, many would have to come to terms with KK teaming 97 and Freddy early.
“You couldn’t live with your own failure. Where did that lead you? Back to me”
-Thanos Frederic
Ooooo… Dach-McD-Fred sounds fun!
Fingers crossed
McJesus leading Patty Dach supremacy was promised to us 3000 years ago.
Great post Godot.
👍
Nuge is closer to the pressbox than a 2C right now
Nuge is getting so many good looks on the PP yet he can’t hit the broad side of a barn. Teams are on Connor-Leon immediately leaving Nuge-Bouchard open for a grade A chance they both need to start cashing
In reading a few more playoff predictions from NHL executives, once again, Oilers are viewed as a team with a few superstars who carry a team with little depth.
I think this is misevaluation is a strength. This year they actually have more depth, it came late and its a bit of a surprise but this year that depth can win hockey games.
I believe McDavid and Draisaitl can win their minutes, and Knoblauch can win with the depth lines.
The first period of the playoffs when Oilers go up 2-0. That is their top end. If they can keep up anything close to that level they can win against anyone.
Or just win every 2 out of 3, that will do as well. And please no more injuries.
Whether or not they have more depth is up for debate. I think the executives are referring to the Oilers depth as compared to other Top Tier Teams
They specifically referenced previous Oilers that went to the finals two years in a row, carried by a few players, supported by better cast than this years version.
The opinion is well cemented, just as it is in regard to Evan Bouchard, with little effort put forth to understand any other version could exist.
But of course, depth can be up for debate. Personally I like the greater variety of skills this years version of depth brings.
I’m with you on this. Most interesting lineup (younger, faster, bigger, lots of skill-emerging) to my eye, compared to 2024 or 2025.
Oh my do I hope the break the glass option doesn’t happen. There would be no logic when Drai’s line by himself is 4-2 goals including his wingers looking like the best version of themselves…
Savoie and Hyman should work well to bust McDavid out of his slump. They’re forechecking demons and it seems like that when 3 Ducks converge on McDavid, there should be plenty of room behind them
KK needs to leave the lines alone and remind his captain he has linemates who are also NHL players capable of taking and making a pass. It’s hard to call one of the best playmakers of all time “selfish,” but it’s clear he believes at times he needs to do it all himself.
KK also needs to come unglued the next time someone tries to go 1v3 and loses possession at the opposing blueline. For a coach who used to profess suppression as a strategy, he sure turns a blind eye to these awful blue line turnovers that almost always result in a chance the other way.
And worst of all, it’s so predictable that opponents know they just need to get stick in the lane and it’s 75% chance of a turnover. That might be the most ugly adjective for Mcdavid’s game right now: Predictable. That said, I would never bet against him and agree with LT that tonight feels like an incoming 3 point night along with an Oiler win.
The only tweak I would make is on the powerplay. Maybe Nuge could help PP2 get a little more comfortable zone time? They need to do a better job of limiting the minutes for PP1 and giving more opportunity for PP2. 1.5 minute powerplay shifts just aren’t going to cut it in the playoffs. It feels like a waste of at least 30 seconds of the powerplay as they coast around and then bobble the puck to lose possession because they are GASSED. Who tf is coaching them here?
And for god’s sake let Sam-Fred-Dach ride
“he sure turns a blind eye to these awful blue line turnovers that almost always result in a chance the other way.”
You dont know that.
“Who tf is coaching them here?”
They’ve done this for years. to a historical level of efficiency.
To 97, we gave him tonnes of flack for being too unselfish.
Snip snap snip snap.
Enjoy the game, doubt you’ll get many more chances to criticize 97 going forward so fill your boots while you got the chance.
The blueline turnovers have been a problem most of the last 2 seasons. So yeah, either he is turning a blind eye to the turnovers his best players constantly make, or he is ineffective at coaching them to play differently. Neither is a great look.
Mcdavid is the first and only legit jersey I own as a lifelong second tier fan. My criticisms are coming from a perspective of wanting them to have success so that Mcdavid doesn’t leave after next season.
And 97 I’m sure would be the first to tell you he hasn’t played up to his usual standard these first 2 games. There are things to be critical of here. I fully expect him to adapt and put up 3 points tonight. Doesn’t change the results of the last 2 games
The previous 2 years they were juggernauts 5v5. Top 3 both years. Single moments man. Problems are goaltending and PK the last 2 years imo. Taylor Hall ‘I have the puck so i turn it over more’ syndrome is curable.
I didn’t call any of your fandom into question from your criticisms, so if this is being taken personally I’d say it definitely wasn’t meant that way. I don’t agree the things you’re criticizing are the issue, or are true, at least to your or I’s knowledge.
Is it just me or has “Grab the hammer and break the glass” NOT been working this year?
It’s not just you, but unfortunately coach doesn’t seem to notice and that is his go to when Connor’s line is not working.
97+29:
over 300 minutes 5v5:
59% xGF
57% SCF
61% HDCF
It’s just you
53% goals is why people don’t love them this year but the real issue is we have trouble building a good second line when they are together. With Leo and Podz/Kap running 60% goals on their own there is no reason we shouldn’t be able to have two elite lines.
I was just going to look up the GF% as I noticed it was conspicuously absent, so thank you for this.
And fully agree, moving Drai to L1 creates a black hole on L2 that Nuge just can’t fill and breaks up a line that is humming.
In past years it was like a cheat code to put them together, but the eye test and results haven’t quite jived with historical levels this year
When did 53% GF% become a bad thing?
You give me too much credit that I omitted on purpose.
For sure, doesn’t mean them together isn’t working.
Not really, still good but other combos are much better
McDavid 5v5 pts/60 with:
Savoie – 3.03
Nuge – 2.73
Hyman – 2.73
Podz – 2.53
Leo – 2.27
Leo with
Kapanen – 3.93
Savoie – 3.4
McDavid – 2.64
Podz – 2.54
Roslovic – 1.92
A coach who is forced to rely on Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard to break out of a two-game dry spell is the most blessed coach alive. I hope he knows it.
Wiser words have never been spoken.
The problem with 97 setting his jaw will be an increase in one on many sorties that will result in too many pucks easily knocked of his stick as we have seen in the past two games. Instead of setting his jaw he should engage his brain and find a better way.
He can adjust. He is a smart man.
Agreed. Very smart. But as we’ve seen, also very stubborn (with a considerable amount of historical success to buttress his habits). Is he smart enough to be less stubborn/habitual?
“Late breaking story on the CBC”…
Tragically Hip lyrics spotted in Lowetide Oilers blog!
Has this happened before?
I know Game 3 hasn’t even been played yet, but I swear to Gord this is the TSN Turning Point in the series.
To coach K –
“no one’s interested in something you didn’t do”
We go into tonight hoping for “Fully Completely”, but hopefully we don’t end up with “Trouble at the Henhouse.”
If there’s a goal that everyone remembers
It was back in the Orange and Blue
We all squeezed the stick and we all pulled the trigger
And all I remember is sitting beside you…
What was your favourite Oiler’s playoff goal?
For me, it was Marchant’s G7 OT against Dallas.
Gretzky slapper far side on Vernon coming down the LW wall. I think it was in OT.