I’m getting close to the ‘Riesen to Believe’ post, it takes in all of the names who will be in camp and hangs a chances of making the team percentage on each man. I like to do it because once camp begins the storylines move, and we have a chance to place the ‘before’ photo in our mind’s eye with words.
The first step is identifying the players who are extremely likely to spend some or all of the season with the Bakersfield Condors. Let’s begin with that process.
Goaltender Matt Tomkins is the incumbent veteran and owns a $400,000 salary on the AHL end of his deal. Still, I think Connor Ungar gets a real shot at the starter’s job and Samuel Jonsson may also force the issue. Nathan Day is routinely placed fourth, and I think that’s on merit. One never knows with goalies. A Tomkins trade in preseason is possible, and of course we could see a three-headed monster in Bakersfield this winter.
The left side of the defense might include Spencer Stastney, but he’s probably headed elsewhere in a trade (or lost to waivers). Damien Carfagna, Riley Stillman and Atro Leppanen will return, and newly signed Tomas Cibalka will also contend for playing time. Kids like Cibulka (22) need to play if they can compete at the AHL level. I still don’t know what to make of Leppanen, but love watching him play. Samuel Sjolund signed an AHL deal out of Western Michigan and will be a player to watch.
Right side could be led by Alec Regula and I do think he would clear waivers. I like Beau Akey plenty, hope we see him play more of a feature role. Josh Brown gets mentioned as a veteran who might make the Oilers but I can’t see it, honestly. I think it would be a mistake. I know some bright people are suggesting it, and I respect their opinion, just doesn’t make sense based on what is in front of Brown on the depth chart.
Josh Samanski could make the Oilers, but I’ll include him in this discussion. I think there’s a chance Stan Bowman trades for a RH center before training camp. Losing James Hamblin hurts the depth chart, but Viljami Marjala’s offense is quality at this level. Owen Micharls will be a key player to watch, I think he might get some NHL time this winter (not opening night, but a recall). William Nicholl, for me, is going to play a bigger role than most rookies. His speed and two-way ability should elevate him into the PK mix and there’s a chance he sticks at center even as a rookie pro. Rhett Pitlick might play here.
Oilers are extremely low on center depth at the NHL level currently, and Michaels is the only righty. Bowman owes it to his team to make a move in this area.
Left wing should be populared by Max Jones, Eduards Tralmaks, Mattias Janmark, Connor Clattenburg and Brady Stonehouse. I think we should start the process of estimating the opening night rosters in Edmonton and Bakersfield by placing Janmark in the AHL. His hands are gone, he is injured a lot, and the team hired Mathieu Joseph for Janmark’s NHL role. That also means that if Janmark makes the NHL club, we should give enormous credit. He’s starting from a long way back.
Janmark could play center in Bakersfield, that would be an easy fix for coach Colin Chaulk’s lack of centers. I am not including Ike Howard on the list of LWs, because I think he will make the big club out of camp.
Right wingers include Quinn Hutson, Atu Raty, James Stefan and there will be some adds in this area before the Condors set sail. Seth Griffith is signed to an AHL deal that includes the 2026-27 season, and Daniel D’Amato signed an AHL deal and will return for his third season. There may be some names I’ve missed, but this will be the starting point.
On the Lowdown today, Jonathan Willis will be our guest at 12:40 this afternoon. We welcome back an exceptional observer of the game as he prepares to promote his new book. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will drop in at 1pm and we’ll chat about all things Oilers. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
”I think it’s a stone cold lock the Oilers are a top 6 forward at some point during the regular season.” – Bob Stauffer.
The story so far in the World Junior Summer Showcase:
Lafreniere has an aPPle in 2 GP.
Barnett has an assist in 3 GP.
Cameron has a 2.02 GAA and 92.0 SV% in essentially 2 GP.
LT, I’m on board with your suggestion Stan could improve the roster if he can acquire a bottom six centre. Acquire more good players is how you win the Stanley Cup.
Which three of Howard/Samanski/Joseph/Janmark/Jones would you cut if the Oilers added another forward?
Whichever ones aren’t fitting in with Babcock’s plan
How does one figure that out with four exhibition game (only 2 permitted for Jones, Janmark, Joseph and, likely, this newly added forward)?
Increased competition for roster spots is a positive outcome. Honest. It results in a stronger team when a better player bumps someone else from the lineup.
if you were an Oiler fan during the Glen Sather years, creating healthy internal competition was a key strategy Sather followed and spoke of frequently.
“If that happened, it would make our team stronger.” New York Times
Is there any time for increased competition?
They have four exhibition games and they have a new coach implementing brand new structure (and, from what we’ve heard, their pressure game is going to be much different than what they’ve played recently). They need to set their lineup and get ready for game 1.
They already have 5 players for 3 spots on forward. I mean, if there is a material upgrade to what they have and the price and cap is reasonable, of course, but adding an extra same tier player doesn’t make sense to me and could be as much a negative than a positive.
I would think Babcock has his favourites on the final 2-3 spots.
Coaches across the league have access to more information than exhibition games to make roster decisions.
I agree with acquiring another center if GM and coach determine it will improve the roster and depth chart. Get more good players.
Are your opinions biased towards players in Bakersfield because you’ve stated you watched their games?
For those who may be interested, Michelle Jenneke, a 33 year-old Australian hurdler and model, finished 5th in the 100m hurdles at the Commonwealth Games today. Long-time readers may recall that our esteemed host regularly showed a clip of Jenneke’s bouncy warm-up routine. Unfortunately we haven’t seen her in these parts for many years. 😞
LT, thanks for having Willis on the radio /podcast today. I too am looking forward to the book in October.
re Oilers – his comments on the goalies was interesting. I had heard, from various sources, that the Jarry trade was also an analytics move. Your guest didn’t think so. This, for me, would be a good question for your friend Tachel (if she is still a weekly guest).
Rachel is a weekly guest, but takes summers off. I can tell you she would not consider Jarry an analytics acquisition, although he did have good five-on-five numbers with the Penguins one year ago when the trade took place.
I would have preferred Jordan Binnington. We would have gotten 2 playoffs runs with him. Jordan is a battler I know he wants the sneaky Hughes shot back. Could you imagine Jordan backstopping us to a Cup the way Billy Smith handed out his own justice. I was at that game where Smith bolted the door on us while hacking Gretzky. Billy was in every Oiler head as well as every fan head. I’ve never seen anything like it. I can still remember that sickly feeling walking to the LRT. I would take Jordan winning the battle against the Tkachuk who are mostly show where Jordan can be certified Helter-Skelter.
Thanks.
I was led to believe there were “deeper numbers” than the ones most of us are privy to. That is what I would want to hear about from Rachel.
Certainly the public numbers weren’t impressive, to me. Not impressive enough to warrant that trade, at least.
OP, 12 posts out of a total of 34 (30%’ish) so far. Yesterday 30’ish of 112. Love your posts but just too much man. Dial it down a touch.
An odd comment aimed at an Oilers fan on an Oilers blog.
He has been asked to write his own blog before. I think its a function of the dog days lowering the total comment count rather than an increase from the norm.
That he echoes the same comments across at least 4 platforms I’m aware of shows a dedication where I believe he could genuinely make an honest following out of it. Its usually good stuff.
You have the option to ignore it, but I get where you’re coming from. It can dominate the discourse.
A 5-comment per day limit (non game days) would encourage more thoughtful discourse as opposed to indulging some to post the full expanse of their minds’ Himalayas.
I do appreciate most of the Himalayan vistas offered here. Mute button is used occasionally.
If anyone should have a blog that doesn’t, it’s OP. I wouldn’t visit, My gut tells me that it wouldn’t reduce his posts here.
I value OPs posts especially on the condors. He seems to me to be well informed. Even the higher percentage of posts during the dog days of summer still only takes a few minutes to browse.
I also enjoy the entertainment value of some of the back and forth with other posters.
Hear, hear!
How petty that you even counted his posts for two days. As others have said, dog days of summer and he has knowledge about the Oilers/Condors.
He posts a lot???! Oh nooooooo
The Gateway to the North will never be silenced when it involves Oiler talk. I do miss the John Short after hours call-in talk show.
I wish he proof-read a little longer before he published.
At least 1-2 Players get hurt at camp every year. Or players aren’t ready after surgery/injury recovery. (Janmark might be in this category) Having some options in the bottom 6 and on D is a good thing because they will likely need them all at some point.
Can be challenging early in the season if there aren’t a lot of injuries (saw Holland walk this line before) but pretty much have to plan that there will be.
I’d love to see the NHL expand rosters by 1-2 players, and I think teams should be able to insert scratches into the game if players get hurt during play. Or allow the coach to sub a guy out that isn’t playing well and insert a scratch. An NHL executive in an interview said something along the lines of “if I’m paying him, why can’t I play him in the game?” I think it would also increase the impact of coaching and frankly be more interesting to the fans, jus like in baseball where an injured player comes back on the bench but then pinch hits late in the game. Fans would love it.
I’d say the answer to roster size and inserting scratches from the pressbox is mostly based around “there has to be some limit” but it’s not hard to identify issues from either the player’s side or the owner’s.
For roster size, it’s about opportunity to play. The NHLPA is ok with 3 extra players sitting out but 5,6,7 players not playing would be an issue of contention outside of the playoffs. Players want to play and larger rosters allow teams to more veterans.
For the swapping in a scratch, that would be time consuming, lead to players getting injured because they didn’t have time to warm up and create issues of swapping in goons for a game that gets out of hand. For instance, a team down by 4 goals before the thrid period starts,swaps in Matt Rempe and tells him to end someone. That would 100% happen and be quite an issue for the league.
For sure on inserting goons, that is 100% why it won’t happen. Maybe you could do something like a red card in soccer, can’t sub in for a player that has fought, the team will have to play with 1 less player(not on the ice but on the bench). And for time, maybe it can only happen at first and second intermissions, not in the live game.
But you are right, a guy like Rempe could get inserted for the third and wreak havoc. But maybe if you fight after getting inserted there would be a stricter penalty, like an auto 5 min major on top of the other penalty and 1 game suspension. Can totally understand why the players would push back on this however. To deal with players not playing, maybe there would be limits on how long players can sit, like you have to insert every player at least once every 3 games. So you have to use your entire roster, even if that means just bringing a guy in for 1 period.
The NHL roster system is just so inflexible, I think it could be improved and it would also improve the game.
I would say your on to something teams on a 5-6 road trip out East or West get injuries and at times only have 11 forwards or 5D. I kinda remember they made a change on the 3rd goalie when a leafs fan had to suit up after both goalies were injured. Somebody please remember this clearer and the change implemented.
The impeccable health of the defence in 24 was a major reason Bro left town imo. Barely even got spot duty. An injury, while not wanted, could have probably saved alot of anguish.
Holland straight up said we don’t have time for prospects after the noise on Lavoie got to him.
Per Complete Hockey News:
The IIHF has ruled that Russia will not be allowed to participate in the following 2027 tournaments, citing “ongoing safety, security and sporting integrity concerns”.
Men’s World Championship
World Junior Championship
U18 Women’s World Championship
IU18 Men’s World Championship
I can’t believe that Samanski may start the year in the AHL but it just might happen. I think he’s earned that 4C, with potential upside, with his NHL player last year, his Olympics, his post-season play (which was good but for a few minor penalties) and his World Championship performance.
Maybe this Dach at center thing is because we know they are going to load up McDavid/Drai at home here and there and they want another depth center option – maybe it doesn’t forecast Samanski down?
Let’s not forget that Samanski led the Condors in 5 on 5 points when he was called up – not Quinn Hutson. Samanski cheated for defence during his time in the NHL but that should dissipate and he has more to give offensively. I truly think they should not overthink anything and just start with Frederic/Samanski/Dach as the fourth line.
Marjala has NHL skill with the puck, no doubt – he’s like a poor mans’ Ales Hemsky. I’m hoping to put on some girth this off-season. Its tough to see him in the NHL even with his skill – not on this year’s team.
I have Owen Michaels as a tier below Quinn Hutson, who I have as a tweener. I’m hoping to be surprised (as I was with Hutson last year – much more skilled than I anticipated) but an undrafted college UFA that is a defence first guy – doesn’t ring NHL player to me. Again, hope to be pleasantly surprised.
William Nicholl is 100% a player to watch – that kid can skate and has some hands and Oilers fans are going to love his motor. We’ll see how he adapts to the physicality and strength of AHL players.
“I’m hoping to put on some girth this off-season.”
I’m sure I’m ahead of you already.
I agree on this. He was god-awful/brutal for the first 10 games of the season. I’ve never seen a d-man worse in the defensive zone and at the offensive blue line with decision making. Its didn’t help that Cam Dineen, his partner at the time, was just as brutal – that pairing was unplayable.
With that said, I’ve rarely seen positive development like we saw from Leppanen through the middle part of the season. His defensive play because more that serviceable and his puck moving talent came out. He was really coming along. I think he took a step back later in the season – maybe the grind of the AHL season caught up with him.
I think he can maybe play in the NHL but I just don’t know if he’s going to get a chance with this team this year. Carfagna jumped him in the 2nd half of last season and, really, I’m not sure this coaching staff will be looking for this type of player this season. Maybe if Bouchard goes down but probably not even then (they’ll rely on Walman for the offensive leverage minutes in that case).
It sounds to me like the Condors roster will be better this year. What do others think?
Not really.
Howard shouldn’t be there.
Jarventie was callup worthy.
Hamblin replaced by Michaels. Hamblin is the superior offensive player until proven otherwise.
Dineen gone Cibulka in.
Love to follow Nicholl and see if Ungar can follow up his meteoric rise from nobody to somebody.
Carfagna, Hutson, Clatt, Marjala, Leppanen the others.
Better? I don’t think so. New faces and youth that could surprise? Sure.
The goaltending numbers might improve but I suspect you’re right about the rest of the roster. Aside from internal improvements, there is very much a player in/player out kinda feel to the team.
Tralmaks, Raty, Michaels & Cibulka are intriguing additions. More playing time for Ungar & maybe Jonsson could see a big shift there. But (and it’s a big but) Jarventie, Hamblin, Poulin, Dineen out for sure and Howard/Samanski/other as likely call-ups and we’ll probably see less goals for & less goals against.
The Condors were 12th overall in the AHL with the 3rd most goals for and 25th most goals against out of 32 teams. Better goaltending means we’ll probably see a top-10ish season even with less scoring.
No. Their best players, Samanski and Howard, should be on the Oilers. The Condors will have nothing comparable to them.
They really only had one of Howard or Samanski at a time for most of the year so its a loss of one of them (hopefully).
They may have Stastney and Regula on their back-end.
They may have Jones and Janmark to start – they likely have two of Samanski/Howard/Jospeh/Jones/Janmark.
They will have Connor Ungar who could pop at the AHL level.
The Oilers have great center depth until they load up the Glim Twins, if Stan can find himself a center that turns the Dickinson line into a shut down 4th line while creating a 3rd scoring line with the new addition that can slide up and take over 2C with legitimate socring skills that would sure solve alot of problems imo.
Nuge/Howard could be legitimate scoring wingers for a soft scoring line instead of running with Dickinson in a no win situation.
Savoie/McDavid/Hyman
Podz/Draisaitl/Kapanen
Nuge/ADDITION/Howard
Dach/Dickinson/Frederic
Janmark/Samanski/Joseph
That’s a wagon if Stan can land a healthy body on the Oregon trail.
With how they do the PP, they 100% need a centre to take the next shift after the power play. McD/Drai/RNH on PP1 means either someone plays out of position on the next shift (Savoie?) or they have Dickinson/Samanski/Janmark as next up which is not good when you’re looking for a goal.
It only took them 15 years to sorta solve the 2RD and they traded or fumbled 2 ready made solutions at 3C with 2C spot duty when Glimmering.
Lord let Samanski piss a drop.
Surely a 2/3C will fall from the sky just as the ones before them did! Right?
Nothing needs to fall from the sky to address a need, cap space and teams falling out of the race will open up options
LT provided a Centre options he felt could be available and could be acquired by GMSB.
I wonder if O’Reilly makes it out of camp? If he finds a home in Tampa like I expect by Christmas at the latest and the Oilers keep playing pat-cake pat-cake with Howard then someone needs to be immediately fired.
Fair enough, Bowman and squad haven’t been at the helm for 15 years and theyre doing a pretty good job imo of addresses said holes. He’ll have cap to absorb and a center or two will become available, hopefully the nail the addition.
Prayers don’t deliver Stanley. Bring this roster a Center GMSB.
There is credence to this position but I don’t think Stan is looking for a 3C as I think Stan thinks he signed his 3C in Jason Dickinson. We can continue to talk about if he’s a 3C or a 4C on a contender but I think that is Bowman’s current view.
I do think Ryan P. could maybe be pried out of Anaheim given their need to shed cap for Gauthier.
I know I said shut down 4th line, really its just the shut down line. Id go with the shut down line, then a soft minutes opponent scoring line for the bottom 6.
2 first lines, 1 hard minutes line, 1 soft minutes scoring line.
Right now its 2 scoring lines, and 2 lines that wont score. Not sure that’s a good recipe.
Some folks seem to think that’s an impossible ask, sad to see.
Thee is a reason why I suggested that, in addition to Nuge, Podz would be a great fit on a third line with Dickinson. I have little doubt that Drai could continue to drive an out-scoring line with Kap and Howard and Podz would complete a very good 3rd line that should be able to outscore even with lots of tough minutes.
I fully acknowledge that Podz likely stays with Drai (maybe even Podz and Kap – I really have little idea what Babcock plans for Howard).
The forwards are where it gets interesting as we know they can only keep 13 which means two of the following are assigned or waived (and assigned): Jones, Joseph, Janmark, Samanski, Howard.
I would suggest that Joseph is close to a lock though and that should put Janny on watch but I have no idea what Bowman and Babcock think about Janny. Do they think he’s washed like most fans or are they thinking he’s finally healthy after 2 years and could be a good bottom six player?
I think Samanski should be a lock but he’s at big risk and this alluding to Dach at center is part of it.
I waive Janny and Jones but for all I know it’s Sam and Ike heading to Bako. Does Babs see Ike in the top 6? If not, he may head down.
He should see him there of course.
Marjala and Michaels as the top two centers – maybe 3 if Samanski is down.
Jones and Tralmaks will lead to some size in that top 6.
Why did they sign Tralmaks was it for insurance on the injury front are was it strictly for an older player aiding the kids? How many players and are blocking Tralmaks from seeing NHL time?
Just prior to the Tralmaks signing, Stauffer said “look for the team to sign a goal scorer for the Condors” – no doubt that is Tralmaks.
Do they hope they he continues to score a bunch of 5 on 5 goals and maybe becomes an NHL option? Of course. Is it expected that he play any NHL games this season? I highly doubt it.
As of right now: two of the following are 14F/15F – Janmark, Jones, Joseph, Howard and Samanski.
That leaves the following as 16F-19F: Hutson, Marjala, Michaels, Tralmaks – arrange them as you may.
Of course, they may lose a forward to waivers but there is also accounts of trying to trade for a depth right shot center which will add to it.
I suspect the reason Tralmaks signed with the Oilers is highly related to the $400K AHL salary.
Serious question as I have no idea how coaches/execs evaluate camp, but do they see things during drills, scrimmages, or even over off season etc. that tip the balance or is it strictly preseason performance in game?
I really don’t know but I am firmly of the opinion that exhibition games mean very little as far as ascertaining NHL readiness of non-established players. We’ve seen year over year over year that a prospect can produce in exhibition but then, once the regular season stats, boom, non-effective.
Also, this is without the alluded to add of a depth right shot center. Could it be 3 of those 5 listed out?
Of course, any IR injury saves a roster spot for a likely cut. They have tons of cap room to add players when those injuries happen – limited only by roster spots (and 3 goalies taking up 3 spots).
The 7D in the NHL are 100% set as neither Shakir nor Emerson are going anywhere near waivers.
Sublect to an IR injury to a dman, Stansty and Regula are both to be waived (or traded). I agree with LT that Regula likely clears as he did last year. Stastney may clear as well and I think the $1.5MM may have included some “waivers protection”. No lock though, either could get claimed.
Stauff continues to allude to a potential trade of Stastney for a depth right shot center.
I think Carfagna could jump to the top of the call up list last Brown and Stillman if he picks up where he left off.
Here is hoping the Akey has been healthy all summer and has been able to train properly and can stay on the ice this season. If so, he could be the biggest pop.
What do you think it’ll take to get Poitras from Boston? Would Regula-Stastny be of any interest?
I have no idea.
So much to talk about but let’s start with the goalies. We know for certainty the NHL goalies to start which provides certainty on the minor league goalies.
I know many want them to shoot Tomkins in to the sun and have Ungar and Jonsson split in Bako but I think we know that the org is very likely not going to do that. They value a vet in Bako who was a massive part of the team last year, he provides a calm presence, solid tending and leadership – he helps the team be successful and that is important for the prospects on the team. I think it’s highly unlikely they are going to go with two prospects neither of which are even established in the AHL.
I think Ungar starts with Tomkins, older and some AHl experience, but Sam J. will see AHL games.
The Janitor Haters are out early this season. Janmark is a Babcock and Smith kind of guy, and his career is that of a survivor. He will be healthy for the first time in a long time. I will be surprised if he is NOT the 12th or 13th forward on the Oilers roster.
Babcock has 2 years to win a cup. He will dress a lineup that best achieves that objective versus icing players that fit an antiquated ‘type’. There are better players than Janmark coming to camp.
Babcock and company may very well find that Janmark helps them best achieve their objectives.
Haha I was going to comment this too. New shoulder with lots of time to rehab. In 24-25 he was still a ~95th percentile skater in the league. Im predicting a redemption season.
Reg season: 60 GP: 2-8-10.
Playoffs: 16 GP: 6-2-8
Yep. Coaches like vets more than they like young players. Janmark will “play the right way” in camp and the coach will have time for him on the 4-line/PK/press box tour. Howard/Samanski/other will miss a check and they’ll be in the doghouse.
Players that need waivers have a big leg up every year and this year will be no different.
He has to move the needle offensively. His skill set is covered by a younger man. We’ll see. Healthy is importance, but the PK playoff run is a distant bell now.
That is true but if his fight is vs. Samanski, 8 points in 43 games (15 point pace) is better than Samanski’s 4 points in 24 games (13 point pace).
Right now, Janmark is still a top-13/14 player on the team and waiver eligibility plays a big role in short term decision making. I don’t think Janmark will be waived unless they add another forward (or two) or someone else shows up to camp with a vengeance.
Is the fight not Joseph vs. Janmark? Samanski is a center, the other two wingers and Joseph is known to cover pretty much the exact same skill set as Janmark, no?
When will the haters learn that 34YO 4th liners coming off season-ending surgeries are entering their prime contribution years?
No love for Janmark. I could play that goal in game 7 on a loop. Ceci with the head-man pass right on the button. I thought that that goal would be a game changer.
I’m a fan of the Janitor; at his best, he’s been a pest with decent hockey sense, fast wheels and suspect hands. A third round pick that figured out his role and has carved out a pretty decent 680 game career in the NHL.
I hope he gets back to being 100% healthy, because when he is, he can help do the little things, and dirty things that help a team win in the NHL.
I have zero idea what Bowman and Babcock think about Janny. They may think he is washed and he’s waived out of camp. They may think that he is finally healthy after battling through a shoulder issue of two years and can impact the game in both directions.
I just don’t know.
Babcock has no known relationship with Janny.
DJ Smith has a known relationship with Mathieu Joseph who, for me covers many of the attributes that Janny is known for.
I’m not sure this team needs both in particular at the expense of a Samanski.
I think this actually lies somewhere in the middle. He is certainly a luxury as someone that can fill-in from injury woes throughout the season or come playoff time.
I think they’ll keep Tompkins for the AHL unless they add another G. The team has decided to solve their goalie problem using buckshot and that will likely include their 4,5, & 6 options as well.
I don’t anticipate any goalie in the system other than Jarry, Feddie and Levi getting games for the Oilers this season….
I may not understand what “using buckshot” means.