Value From Distant Bells

At some point we’ll get some new information on the Edmonton Oilers, and the daily discussion of Josh Samanski will subside on this blog. Maybe. Edmonton usually has some famous rookie to hold our attention, and Ike Howard would qualify but he played too many games last year is now the much less compelling ‘former rookie’ and we tend to grow suspicious of those fellows. Human nature.

I’m writing about rookies this week, and Josh Samanski is the most interesting. Since the comments section has gone from ‘Samanski might not make the roster’ to ‘I think he’s Gretzky!’ let’s have a look at what the young man can bring at this time.

His NHL minutes during the regular season offer a clue (playoff numbers too small a sample) but I’m going to talk mostly about his impressive AHL season.

PROSPECTS EVEN STRENGTH GOAL SHARE 2025-26 (FWDS)

This shows Samanski was the driver at even strength on his line while in Bakersfield. He played on the top unit (often with Ike Howard and Quinn Hutson) and everyone thrived. Samanski wasn’t the most impressive offensive player on his line, but he contributed and was quality in doing the little things that help suppress GA. When he left for Edmonton, his Condors linemates regressed (in the bad way) in goal share. You can’t get a better recommendation than that in my opinion.

That should translate to the NHL and my goodness he showed well with the Oilers using the eye test. As well, the actual numbers (55 percent goal share, 1.75 expected GA-60) were tremendous, the best on the Oilers for players over 21 games. Now, he played less against elites than he will in time, but these are splendid totals (via Puck IQ) considering he was playing in Germany in the spring of 2025:

While I’m at it, just want to mention it’s a damn shame Roby Jarventie wasn’t signed. He was, in my opinion, the Condors best forward in the second half of the season. Ike Howard looks good here, he worked hard and I hope he gets a full chance. Quinn Hutson is in a better spot now due to the Matt Savoie injury; it’s a narrow window, but it’s there all the same. The Viljami Marjala and Connor Clattenburg numbers tell us both men need to work on their 200-foot game, although Clattenburg had a much smaller sample and we’re always mindful of the impact.

PROSPECTS EVEN STRENGTH POINTS 2025-26 (FWDS)

Ike Howard will get his chance, hopefully it comes this fall. He’s a fine young offensive player and learning on the job defensively. Years ago, when a young Tom Poti was struggling, I asked my friend John Short why he was having such a tough time. “When he was in high school, when he wanted the puck Poti would just go and get it. Similar in college. When he got to the NHL, different story.” That’s why God invented the minor leagues, and Howard has learned his lessons. I’m cheering like hell for him.

Samanski does well here, too, but .6 points-game at even strength doesn’t guarantee he’s destined to fill the net in the game state. On the other hand, Dylan Holloway didn’t get close to .6 points-game. In his 63 AHL games, over three seasons, Dylan Holloway scored 16-13-29 (.46 even strength points-game).

Here’s what I think about Samanski: Howard aside, he’s the best young player on the list above and could have a significant NHL career. I don’t think he’s Gretzky, but do believe he’ll score enough to stay in the lineup, he will help his line outscore at five-on-five and he’ll be solid as a PK option. That’s an NHL player.

Dallas Eakins gets credit for finding Samanski, but let’s give this player flowers for becoming more than he was at 20 by working hard and getting better at doing his chores.

You know, Leon Draisaitl improved his skating, endurance, shot and coverage after he was drafted, and became a hockey icon. Samanski has some of that in him, too. He’s a damn good player. I’ll be shocked if he every scores 20 goals in an NHL season. His NHL equivalency is 27 points over 82 games. If he went 12-15-27, with the rest of his tools intact, an NHL team would play him and employ him. That’s a helluva player to procure for nothing but a contract. Mike Babcock will like him. Pretty sure. I projected Samanski at 51 games in the NHL next season, but didn’t give him much for boxcars because I’m uncertain how much they’ll use him.

On the Lowdown today, our feature guest is Kevin McCurdy and we’ll chat about Samanski, Hutson and players who may benefit from the Matt Savoie injury. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.

One more thing. I think Samanski is lucky he arrived now, with the team set in most areas. When Anton Lander, a similar player, arrived in Edmonton, there was too much chaos. Lander didn’t improve his foot speed, and that will be key for Samanski, but for me the Oilers are a more mature organization now. Here’s what I wrote over a decade ago about Lander:

Anton Lander 13-14

• 5×5 points per 60: 0.21 (16th among forwards)
• 5×4 points per 60: nil
• Qual Comp: 13th toughest competition among regulars (fourth line)
• Qual Team: 9th best competition among regulars (third line)
• Corsi for 5×5 %: 43.9
• Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -.2
• Zone Start: 40% (6th toughest on the team among regular forwards)
• Shots on goal/percentage: nil
• Boxcars: 27, 0-1-1
• Plus Minus: -10 on a team that was -51\

What do these numbers tell us? He can’t score.

He scored in the AHL. Sure, got some power-play time and improved a great deal. OKC Lander EV: 43, 8-14-22 .511; OKC Lander PP: 43, 10-16-26 .605.

So, there’s no hope at all? There’s hope, but he isn’t going to hit a lot, and I don’t know if a center who can’t score is going to have a career in Edmonton. The Oilers aren’t that specialized.

Why can’t the Oilers identify him? They could but, it’s difficult to keep all the balls in the air. It’s like building a house and trying to do 15 things at a time: it’s easy to forget the extra light socket in the basement family room, and that your wife wanted the kitchen island situated so she could see through to the park.

Sounds like you have some experience in the matter. Oh boy.

What is his role for next year? He doesn’t have one in Edmonton.

So he’s GONE!?? Well, let’s see. Gordon is going to be the 4line C, they signed Arcobello to a deal and there are ‘crossroads’ articles in the minor league papers. Yes, I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest he won’t be back in the fall.

Does the coach like him? Eakins: “If (Lander) is going to play here, he has to be able to play centre, he has to play left-wing and he has to play right-wing. He has to be able to step in on the power play and kill penalties. He has to be able to wear a bunch of different hats.”

Sounds promising!?!!!! Here’s a quick item, learned first hand. When your boss says to (or about you) “If Bob’s going to work here…..” you’re already up to your ass in alligators.

What does it mean? They’ve decided on his bat. Now they have to decide if they can live with it, and if they can’t he’s gone.