This is the Puck IQ sledgehammer from last season, all forwards listed played 100+ minutes versus elites from January 1 to the end of the season. Please read this.
If we put blanks on the names and had you guess, my suspicion is you could find Connor McDavid easily. Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and Matt Savoie are also in very good spots, most of us would get those names maybe in a different order than the sledgehammer. After that, we see the area that needs improvement.
Assuming Savoie returns sooner than later and Hyman stays healthy, the team has most of two terrific outscoring lines from the gang of four on the right side of the graph. Let’s look at the rest of the top-six forwards.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Vasily Podkolzin and Kasperi Kapanen are bunched together in an area where we know they are playing against elites but not delivering the kind of outscoring required for success. This shouldn’t be a major shock, as Nuge is aging and had to play center more after Jan 1, and Podkolzin-Kapanen had to play 10+ games without Draisaitl down the stretch.
I think a reasonable person could conclude that a new coach would run lines with experience together. That might mean Nuge-McDavid-Hyman and Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen, and I think fans should conclude that’s a top-six that will be very competitive.
After that, we can look at the depth forwards for clues. We start with Jason Dickinson, who played the most versus elites in the second half (as a percentage of his overall minutes) with poor results due in part to an 87.9 PDO:
I would look for Josh Samanski and Trent Frederic as possible options for the Dickinson line, although that’s three lefties on a checking unit and you’d like a RH who an win faceoffs. The folks in the lower left are in the zone where we often see them playing in other hockey cities the following season, and Ike Howard played some versus elites but might have been with McDavid in those minutes.
Based on the Puck IQ graph, we can conclude Stan Bowman followed a logical path in the offseason. If he had signed Andrew Mangiapane, Adam Henrique and Curtis Lazar, that would have been big strange. Based on this information, the injuries to Savoie and Mattias Janmark, I think the optimal lines for opening night for Babcock would be Nuge-McDavid-Hyman; Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Howard; Joseph-Dickinson-Kapanen; Dach-Samanski-Frederic. Your mileage may vary.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk Oilers, Elks and NFL cuts with Jason Gregor, who makes his return to the airwaves after some holidays. This week should bring some news and we’ll cover it as it happens. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
The Edmonton Oilers’ first 10 games could spark major roster changes under Mike Babcock
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7550372/2026/08/31/edmonton-oilers-roster-shuffles-babcock-injuries/
That was painful, reliving the agony of impatience that was last fall in Oilerville, a memory triggered by a couple of your comments. These were subsidiary to your main point. But they underline what I’m reading and hearing, every day here in Oilerville. There’s a lot of magical thinking about the coaching change.
I believe you’re tempering some of that, with your descriptions of the challenges facing the coach. But I’m also hearing lots of “wishin’ & hopin’” (I’m wishing and hoping that isn’t a blog title this fall!). My question: Whatever the coach asks for, demands, insists on, how will team leadership respond?
Maybe there’s enough embarrassment and desperation on the part of team leaders this year, to pull the team —and coach— through. Certainly, the embarrassments of mid-November last fall seemed to shock the group into excellence —but only for a month. For 13 games they had the fourth best NHL WIN% and 10th best SV% (.922, 5v5).
There is, again, as you write, a lot of change, with not much time to gel. I’m wishin’ & hopin’ there’s more patience in Oilerville this fall than there was last fall.
I wait.
Both Connor and Leon were injured add in so-so goaltending and the Ducks beat us easily. Babcock will not allow opposing 4th line scrubs to take runs at Leon and Connor. Even the Hyman injury should have been dealt with last year in the 3 games we played against Dallas. Murphy-Dach add to Frederic-Jones-Walman-Dickinson makes us functionally tougher as a group to play against. I do think Bowmsn adds 1 more forward that can PK as well as deliver a hit. It’s too bad Samanski wasn’t a little more physical.
I made no mention of the post season. My reference was to the period referenced in LT’s article: the fall of 2025, this coming fall. As in this year, many new faces, injuries. Perhaps the difference this fall is team leadership motivated to play 200 ft. (For the record, things are often said, not always followed through on. To wit: Drai telling us in preseason last year he was gunning for Selke. That too was magical thinking…)
Babcock won’t be doing anything different than Knob in this regard and I don’t recall any 4th liners getting any runs in on these guys. Leon got hit on a very innocuous and clear hit.
Deal with the Hyman hit? There was nothing to deal with. That was the most freakish of all injuries. Marchment did nothing wrong – well, on that play at least.
I expect Babcock to have this team ready to play vis-a-vis his structures and systems and the players will be raring to go. There could be some growing pains executing the new structure but I don’t see it from lack of will, effort, commitment nor try (and if it is, Babcock will take steps to deal with that).
I look for the best opening to a season record wise w’ve seen for a while.
There are going to be a lot of changes, so I’m looking for continued improvement through the season, and won’t be surprised if Bowman makes some deals, although the roster I think does anticipate Babcock. A good start would be nice though
All we need is a bottom 6er that kills penalties can skate and does the dirty work. Chimera-Cogliano-Cleary of all the bottom 6ers Kirk Maltby hurt the worst. Maltby won 4 Cups played over a 1000 games this is the bottom 6 player that Bowman needs to add if Frederic can’t turn around his game for Babcock. I do think we see a Frederic with a new lease on life scoring 13-14 goals the next 5 years.
We don’t need to add a guy solely for additional PK minutes.
They will likely use:
Dickinson
Nuge
Joseph
Kapanen (who killed more late last year)
Samanski (who should be a mainstay in the lineup and on the PK)
Podz
Then there is the likes of Dach and Frederic and Jones who could find some minutes
here.
Of course, Savoie will be back while the season is still young as well.
I don’t think Joseph is 84 game player he’ll need to take a seat occasionally. As for Dach-Dickinson-Kapanen it’ll be surprising if they play over 60 games before the injury bug hits them. Does Babcock game translate to more or less injuries? I have no idea.
Why the confidence?
It took Babcock three seasons w the Leafs to have an October at .500 (the first two season starts were much poorer; they were at .500 the previous October). I believe you are putting a lot of weight on McDrai’s words, and some magical qualities that MB carries in his coaching bag of tricks. You and I have at times shared the glass half-full perspective. Here, to my way reckoning value of players’ words and the magic of coaching, you seem to have over-filled your glass. What prompts this effusion of belief?
Better Goaltending with a bounce cat new Coach that everyone will be trying to please so they get more ice-time. More ice-time means a better boat-ritzy house-happy wife-golf vacations at Pebble Beach maybe even play a round with John Daly while sucking back endless beers and smoking Cuban cigars.
As I’ve said, magical thinking.
The only thing I know for sure is that the core that’s gone to SCFs in 2024 and 2025 will be rested, and that an embarrassed team leadership may play as they did after the Nov 2025 embarrassments: 200 feet, with excellent GF%, SV%, and WIN%. The rest of it is wishin’ and hopin’.
I don’t like Babcock possession game it works like dynamite until the playoffs then it seems to crack. The Ducks had a good team Mike gets them to the final and game 7 before losing to the Devils. Mike leaves then they bang they win a Cup. Babcock had some Dynamite teams in Detroit yet they have only one Cup after being bounced as the favourite many times. Even the Leafs were good until Boston got physical and bounced him on several occasions. I’ll give credit for the 2 Olympic victories both those teams were loaded with talent and Mike got them over the finish line. I expect 1st place everyone bragging how good we are then we hopefully don’t lay an egg in the 1st round with home ice.
When we upset the Wings all because of the Hemsky decision there was nothing better than beating the puck possession team at its finest. The stunned look on Hollands face like someone just pickpocketed him and the priceless look as Babcock face turned beet red when Hemsky scored the miracle goal to win it for us. In fact I’m going to watch the last 5 minutes with great pleasure of us upsetting the dream team.
I’m putting a lot in to McDavid and Drai and Hyman and Nuge and Walman and Ekholm and the rest of them having a full 5 month off-season without any major injury rehabs and I’m putting a lot in those guys understanding the regular season matters and having a new found respect for it.
Babcock will be implementing a lot of structure stuff and I think these guys are raring to got fulls team ahead from game 1.
It’s been 3 nonstop years for the Oilers Even before the 2 Cup finals the 2nd round exit against Vegas was hard fought. If Leon goes down like a sack of potatoes withering in pain on the ice Pietrangelo gets 3 games for lumberjacking Leon and we win the series and possibly the Cup.
Ok……
The “rest,” I buy.
Motivated core, I buy.
The rest of it, I’m watching for it. Wishin’ and hopin’ along with many others.
Hoo boy!
@evanderkane
I can’t wait for the day I decide to share “my truths.” The only difference? Mine will come with facts, receipts, and the actual truth.
For now, I’ll simply say this: a lot of people have become far too comfortable speaking publicly while relying on my silence. Enjoy it while it lasts.
There are plenty of https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/svg/1f4a3.svg with plenty of names attached. When the time is right, everything will speak for itself.
That is all.
https://x.com/evanderkane/status/2085618696278429870?s=61
Some context.
https://x.com/RinkyReport/status/2094133739156537515/video/1?s=61
I like Lowetide’s lines as it’s pretty much the most reasonable way to start the year absent Savoie or any other forwards being signed.
Playing Howard on his offside is not helping him to succeed
Looks like Tony B. is leaving the Oilers.
I really like his work and will be interested in where he ends up and, of course, who is next.
Gazolla
Tony B.
???
There are a couple ufa’s that might fit in seamlessly Kurashev & Soucy.
I take Samanski over the Kurashev of the last few seasons that left him unqualified with a small QO.
Why in the world would the Oilers want to add Soucy?
I think Podkolzin is going to be McDavid’s left wing. And Howard with Draisaitl.
Could be but why not leave Podz with Drai and put Howard with McDavid?
I know Drai has a history of helping young players impact at the NHL (i.e. Yamamoto and helped turn others in to top 6 players for stretches: Foegeoe, Kap, etc.) but McDavid was successful with Savoie so why not see if he can do the same with Howard?
Please share.
For myself, if you start with pairs you have McDavid – Hyman and Drai – Podz
It can change.
But McDavid needs a shooter. (Howard) For Drai, he is the shooter so he needs speed and retrieval players. (Kap, Savoie, Podz)
We have Nuge, Howard, Kapanen that are able to play top 6. I would love one more absolute certain top 6 player. This player may be brought in, or hopefully he is already on the roster and waiting for a chance.
We could also see some:
Howard/McDavid/Drai
Podz/Nuge/Hyman
Joseph/Dickinson/Kap
Frederic/Samanski/Dach
Jones
I do think Leon spoon feeds younger wingers better than Connor whose game has more chaos. Hell if Yamo can score 20 Howard should be good for 25 plus
Zero chance Babcock starts Howard on his off wing. He starts on LW with veterans McDavid and Hyman. He’s got October to sink or swim. Seven guys fight it out for position in bottom six. Can keep 8D to start so Stastney doesn’t have to be waived. He who shats the bed gets demoted. Same with goaltending, succeed and play or yer gone
Is Jesse Puljajarvi too far out of the box for a PTO.
Young men mature at different rates, he is a big young guy, with very good wheels.
Long bodies make good PKers, and many top picks work out just fine as a third or fourth liner with a defined role.
If the expectation was 12 minutes a night, 15 goals, responsible defensively, top 3rd for body checks and second pair PK. He could do that at price both sides would like.
Way better options out there without all the extra history. Pass.
I don’t hate the idea of the player (of course, have not really seen him play for a while) but there is no time for any PTO to make the team.
It’s not just less exhibition games (for teams like the Oilers, some teams only played 4 prior) but camp is shorter. One GM was talking about with 4 games and then mandatory off days within the short camp, there are like 6 full skates – that’s all.
There are not time for “tryouts” at camp, in particular for the Oilers who already had their goalies set, their top 7D set and 10 forwards set (9 with Savoie but the injury pretty much locks in their 13 they will have on the roster).
The Oilers have a new coach who will be making big changes including to structure and systems in all zones and all game states (maybe even PP1 usage). Babcock will be using this time to teach and to get his lines/pairings ready for game 1 – not to see of Atu Raty or Quinn Hutson should get a longer look.
Lots of teams will have to make time for tryouts. Oilers may want to jump right out the gate, or they may want to see what they have before making a move, or in case of injury.
I doubt Nuge, Hyman, McDavid, Drai, Elholm need many reps to get going. Plus first 5 regular games are generally at 90-95% intensity.
I don’t think there is any time for Jessie, but certainly time will be made to assess several borderline players.
I think everyone will be roaring to get going, and there will be a ton of energy early.
Its not about “getting going”, its about learning and implementing massive structural changes in the way they play in all zone and all game states (but for maybe PP1), right?
The problem with Podz/Drai/Howard is Howard on his offside and Babcock’s history of being a non-fan is that. It’s not prohibitive but it seems unlikely to me that Howard will be on his offside on the defensive wall in leverage.
Do we play Podz on the right?
Does it not make more sense to play Howard on McDavid’s left side and Kap on Dra/ right allowing Nuge to help a third line crush?
podkolzin was a primarily a right winger until he came to edmonton.
he was drafted as a right winger, played right wing in abbotsford, and played quite a bit of right wing for the canucks.
Maybe he’s better on his natural side.
I would bet McDavid would prefer Podz on his left. And Leon on his right.
When they load up McDavid/Drai, and they will, I don’t imagine Podz is up there – they will need Podz to help drive a strong 2nd line.
I thought you’d be all over Howard with Nuge & Hyman.
Good factoid but, on the other hand, he was not an effective NHL player (not even a full time NHL player) prior, right?
Josh Samanski has more to give, both defensively as a shutdown type center, as well as offensively, he can contribute. He should also be a mainstay on the PK and he’ll end up PK1 in due course.
Lots of us think that the Savoie injury solidifies Howard in the top 6 (and some of us think that should be the case and should have been the case prior to the Savoie injury).
At the same time, there is every chance Babcock puts Nuge on McDavid’s left wing when he’s not loading up.
We just don’t know how this will go.
Yup….. Max Jones might end up playing on the top line with Connor & Zach.
I can see this happening Max could be the player clearing out brush so Connor has a free path. Kinda like when Pat Maroon was here. For all we know Max might be a candidate to play up and down the line-up.
Well he was a throw in with Freddy for a reason. Somebody saw something in Max.
Much bigger chance of Dach being that then Jones imo.
Jones has the IT factor maybe Babcock can squeeze it out of him consistently. Max has 1st round talent of all the players Dach-Samanski-Frederic I see Max Jones popping for 15 plus. This year could set him up even more if he does get 15 goals teams will be salivating to sign him on a multi year contract. If Jones is feeling it early I would love to see him in the top 6 as he has the speed and skill to keep. I think Cowboy is onto to something when he suggested Mad Max in the top 6 on occasion.
Seems unlikely but, yes, something like that could happen.
I just have no sense of how Babcock is going to deploy the forwards, none.
Listening to the scuttlebutt, the Hellebuyck trade fell apart to BUF because WPG wasn’t willing to swap their 8th overall pick for the Sabre’s 4th overall. Since Devon Levi was traded to EDM for a 3rd, he was probably part of the package.
On TSN a few days ago Marty Biron revealed the price for Hellebucyk is probably going to be a 1st rounder, a top prospect who can step in within a year or two and possibly a goalie. Now that the trade request has been made public, the Jets have lost a lot of leverage. If that’s the price, I think EDM should definitely make a bid with Ike Howard, Spencer Stastney, the 2028 1st and Tristan Jarry $5M AAV to make the money work.
I wanted management to be aggressive at going after elite players like Mark Stone, Jack Eichel and Mikko Rantanen. Star players tend to be more cap efficient because they outplay the value of their contracts. This is even more true with every high end RFA or pending UFA signing for $18M+. Hellebuyck’s $8M AAV will be a bargain in a year or two.
We technically don’t need Hellebucyk because the three goalie rotation looks like it can work but I would rather try get him in Edmonton rather than let Vegas swoop in and grab him instead. Even if we don’t get him, I hope just by bidding, we push the price on other suitors upwards so their teams will be weakened by the trading more pieces than initially offered.
I think the Oilers will want to see how the trio does, honestly. The position has been chaos for years, and the only possible long term solution to my eye is Levi. Bowman or other might be right back here looking for a goalie next summer. I don’t think you can move off the plan, such as it is, so soon. Hellebuyck isn’t Hasek.
Hellebuyck has also been subpar in the playoffs. I don’t think he’d help us win Stanley.
He’s been subpar in the playoffs recently – he was also lights out in the playoffs 3 of his first 4 seasons.
How was pretty good in a high pressure Olympic gold medal game.
I wouldn’t be concerned about that (but understand why others are).
I don’t imagine this happens, for various reasons, of course.
Id like to see the Oilers trade Jarry to Winnipeg after they trade Helly out of town.
Then he & Skinner could battle it out for the starter. That would be interesting from an Oiler standpoint.
Jarry for Skinner. I’m with you. He has a better mental fit with this club, doesn’t take it personally when players who know better hang him out to flap in the wind…
(I don’t believe this is what you’re suggesting, but as we’re in dreamland…)
I wouldn’t be against it.
Now we are truly in the realm of magical thinking! But I’m with you 🙂 (Reja, probably not so much)
Hellebuyck isn’t going to another Canadian team.
He should play ever year he owes Winnipeg.
Winnipeg is getting nothing as valuable in trade.
Let him rot there if it comes to that.
Players never ask for trades when their play goes to shit.
And still get paid.
I agree its unlikely but we don’t know what we don’t know.
The Oilers can certainly make a pitch, even just to create a bidding war to increase the assets given up by rivals as you mentioned. However, while Hellebuyck hasn’t specifically said he wants out of Canada, there’s a pretty good chance he does. He is willing to waive his NMC for the “right” team which is likely going to be south of the border.
The other thing to consider is Jarry also has a modified NTC (12 team no trade list) and now that he is in Edmonton where he has a home, and a second baby on the way, at the cap-hit he has, after the half-season he just had with the Oilers, I think the Oilers are going to be hard pressed to trade him this season.
Finally, would the Jets want Jarry? They are still looking to replace Ehlers, so maybe a top-6 forward and signing a guy like Ingram to tandem with Skinner might be more to their liking.
I’m tempted to say it would be ironic to see the Jets witha Skinner/Ingram tandem but I don’t think that’s the correct word so I’ll just say pretty frickin funny
I know that Helly has, presumably, opened up his trade list to a large amount of teams than the likes of Larkin have done but I think waiving for Edmonton is a long shot.
Essentially Howard and a 1st and an increase apx $3MM in cap allocation from Jarry to Connor H? Sure, we make that trade if management is confident that the player turning 34 this spring isn’t an issue as far as future injury and performance (shouldn’t be – goalies stay good longer).
I don’t see this happening.