I’ll be honest, I am not prepared for offseason mode Edmonton Oilers. This blog transitions to discussion of procurement, analysis of the Bakersfield Condors and several flashbacks and tracers once the season is completed. That’s June, or has been for the last while. Please read this.
So, a quick exit means a lot of work for me in a short space of time. Since it’s about me with me in mind, I feel the only reasonable path is to do the one sure thing that will help the situation.
Stan Weir was born in a log cabin that he built with his bare hands. Stan Weir can lick his elbow. Stan Weir puts the fun in funeral. Big Foot takes pictures of Stan Weir. Stan Weir once played 18 holes of golf using a 12 inch strip of rebar and a sun dried tomato. He shot a 54. Stan Weir can kill two stones with one bird. Cars look both ways before Stan Weir crosses the street. The flu gets a Stan Weir shot. Stan Weir will bring us winning, riches untold and women who are terrible judges of character. Ladies and gentlemen, Stan Weir!
The Oilers are in a tough spot, and I’m not sure they’re going to be able to get out of it. The formula for the last decade plus went like this: Connor McDavid outscores the mistakes and the depth lines don’t be awful. In recent times, the depth lines have improved, and of course the Oilers were in the last two finals.
However, McDavid is not 100 percent, and as he ages those injuries are going to impact his productivity more. Here’s a look at the Oilers versus Anaheim at five-on-five, using centers as proxy for the production level of each line.
- Leon Draisaitl solo 61 mins, 6-3 (67 pct) goals
- Connor McDavid solo 60 mins, 2-3 (40 pct) goals
- 97 and 29 together 10 mins, 0-2 goals
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 25 mins, 1-1 (50 pct) goals
- Jason Dickinson 12 mins, 2-0 goals
- Josh Samanski 19 mins, 1-1 (50 pct) goals
- The rest 17 mins, 0-1 goals
The Oilers are 12-11 goals at five-on-five, 6-8 without Draisaitl solo. Based on the five-on-five scoring in a small sample, the series should be tied, and the Oilers centers have represented themselves well. The Glimmer Twins haven’t made magic together in a minute sample but the five-on-five is fine. It’s the special teams that will sink this battleship.
The big concern long term? Connor McDavid’s five-on-five outscoring. He’s an elite talent, so gets special attention. Not long ago, that special attention didn’t mean jack diddly, but now teams are having success. Whether injury or weather-beaten, the outscoring at five-on-five for McDavid without Draisaitl is a worry:
- 2023-24 19-10 (66 pct) in 313 mins
- 2024-25 8-9 (47 pct) in 186 mins
- 2025-26 2-3 (40 pct) in 60 mins
The sample is small so far this season, plenty of time (we hope) to recover. However, McDavid’s line isn’t scoring often. This year, the GF-60 for the line is 2.01, while last year it was 2.58 and in 2023-24 the number (3.64) was hammer of the Gods.
Oilers fans are fretting over McDavid walking to a new NHL team in the summer of 2028. That’s fair. I think there should be some concern about how healthy the captain will be in his 30’s, and how long he will be able to deliver results against the best opposition available. There is no backup plan after McDavid-Draisaitl. What if the magic wand is disappearing?
On the Lowdown today. we’ll have the round table and a special appearance at 1pm by Steve Lansky. You’ll want to tune in. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Edmonton Oilers three rookies loom large in tonight’s elimination game. Will they meet the moment?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7232266/2026/04/28/oilers-ducks-playoffs-savoie-samanski-dach/
I liked the article. You’re already ahead of the “writing about the future” game —unless by “moment” you mean this year’s playoffs?
Yesterday, on air, you opened with, to my ears, a fairly damning indictment of the team’s ability to learn. Then, suggested they could do it, could win the series.
I’m not buying it.
This team, from top to bottom, does learn. But hurt and fatigue will trigger default bad habits. I am not concerned about McD again out (how often have you told us his skating will mean a long career?). I am concerned that with so many hurt (and sick, apparently) our expectations are unrealistic.
Sick and tired and hurt leads to sloppy play.
Don’t expect this team to learn its way past the sick/tired/hurt/sloppy.
Don’t put it on a trio of young players to save the season.
Look forward to some rest.
Look forward to next season.
In the meantime, let’s see how GMSB and co. are preparing to support McDrai as they play smarter, even Selke level, hockey in their 30s.
“I am not concerned about McD aging out…” not “again out.”
Nice win but boy are they giving up the blue line. They’re must be collectively petrified of the Ducks speed. If you’re going to do that. You’ve got to close faster in your zone. The Ducks hit a trailer way too often for a chance in the high slot.
McD looks broken.
In the high slot… only this game, to be angled off to a low percentage shot into the chest, or a good active stick. It looked like KK took a page out of the Ducks’ playbook and neutralized the advantages of that speed
He looks human. First game where he earned a +1, due to managing risk and picking his spots. When he turned it over, definitely slow to get back into view.
The cynic in me would see the way they played in the 2nd and 3rd as not a replicable model for success.
The realist would say they executed the first period to perfection, weathered the long change period well, and defended how a team should with its top goal scorers on various stages of injury.
If McDavid and Draisaitl were well enough to get back in time, in years past they would have very likely put on a show in the 3rd and traded odd man rushes. It might have been 7-3. 4-1 was just fine (although I was hoping for an EN before coach Q tried to cheat again)
What wasn’t replicable about the 2nd or 3rd? The Oilers kept the Ducks to low probability outside chances, forcing shots from easy angles, limiting rebounds, and keeping the low slot clean
It works if they keep earning and playing with the lead
Score effects
5 on 5 goal share:
Podz: 9-3
Kap: 7-0
2 beauties! Kapanen deserves the Ros (rumoured previously) contract.
What terms are the Ros contract?
Did Savoie-Dickerson-Samanski play tonight? I don’t know if that’s a good sign when you’re unnoticeable.
Yes, they did not take a penalty that hurt us.
I say split McDavid/Drai for the road game.
Both are having trouble defending. So I can see why you would favour that. Draisaitl looks more mobile, though, and takes some of that responsibility off McDavid. We’ll probably never know how injured each of the players are. Ekholm? Nuge?
I think the Ducks have figured out how to defend McDavid on his own but tonight they had all sorts of problems with them both. I would vote to keep them together as we have already had 2 games with splitting them apart and the Ducks could nullify McDavid. My vote does not count though as the coaching staff will be all over this.
That win was mature as hell.
Score effects for 2 periods. I remember what that was like in the DoD. The game was over in the first.
Ingram with some great saves including end of 1st. Elite play by Bouch to shut down the momentum.
Drag em back to Berta.
Big game and win for Ingram who’s almost in the zone. Hopefully this carries over for the next 6 periods.
Better rebound control and many players selling out to clear the ones that kicked out in vulnerable positions
Live to fight another game! Now get 97 and 29 into the hyperbaric chambers!
14 more.
For how much Anaheim controlled play over the final 2 periods, the Oilers did an exceptional job in limiting chances from a very potent offense. Only 5 HDCA in the entire final 40 minutes.
Oilers of 2024 and 2025 routinely played like this with the lead. They’d bend, but would not break. There would be a lot of play in their own zone but few really good chances.
First time in a long time I’ve seen them close out a game like this.
Win!
Nice game by Ingram too. Whole team kept play mostly to outside and cleaned up any rebounds, of which there were fewer.
Very solid game in net!!
Ok, we didn’t get ten but enough. Pour it on in Anaheim
Now, time for Dach or similar to absolutely run Gauthier from behind, hard.
Why dont we get those calls when it matters.
Alright, park the Ferraris.
This is why you have a playable 3rd and 4th line
Lol that was the most accidental hipcheck I’ve ever seen by Roslovic there in Senneke. He was sort of spinning and Senneke basically skated into him. 😆
I just said to my brother that I as Roslavic’s most physical moment all series.
The clock seems to be draining very slowly for some reason. It goes faster when the Oilers get some time in the offensive zone. Much preferred..
Ice is pretty tilted right now. Oilers getting hemmed in.
I’m just fine with the Ducks continuing to cycle on the outside – every time they get to the middle, they are contested – most of their shots have been from non-scoring distance.
Limit Connor and Leon’s minutes.
That’s it make them play in their end
“Of course as we talked about, your best players need to be at their best in elimination games, Louie.” Says the colour guy. Geeeeee! YA think?
“You always need your goaltender in an elimination game!”
F@ck, and water is wet?
Quacks are cheating hit offense and they’re gonna get caught. Totally ok with keeping them outside. Most shots are clean from outside. Just make sure to clear the front.
Or at least tie up sticks in front. These Ducks are a load. Huge team. But at least tie them up if you can’t fully box them out.
Oilers stopped making passes to each other and now just dumping it to neutral zone. Not a great plan
Whole buncha nothing from Anaheim. Great close out period.
Weird that they’re praising Trouba for hammering Nurse when it was a good 2 seconds after Nurse dumped it in. Was closer to the blueline than the redline and Nurse chipped it in a good 3 feet behind the redline.
“Great at open ice hits”
Yet it was interference and a hit against the boards…
If they can close this out, I really hope they continue to start Dostal. I know there are score effects, but Husso has been sharp
Husso made a couple massive saves on the PK before the Drai goal – he gave the Ducks a chance to claw back before the Oilers got that 3-goal lead back with a no-doubter.
I mean, they’ve only had 8 shots on him. He did make a couple of great saves, yeah. But still. Haven’t tested him much.
Small sample size, but Husso the only goalie with a +GSAE/60 in this series.
going into tonight, GSAE/60 (league playoff rank)
14- Oettinger: -0.330
15- Hart: -0.450
16- Jarry: -0.480
17- Dostal: -0.776 (dropping to -1.3)
18- Skinner: -0.959
19- Ingram: -1.008 (improved to -0.34)
20- UPL: -1.5
So Dostal just dropped to UPL levels. Husso may similarly falter, but Dostal seemingly presents an advantage
Never in my life have I seen as many icings as in this series. Why?
Roslovic has made some nice plays with the puck and had some good chances – he seems to “score in bunches” – would be a nice time for a heater to start.
He disappears for long stretches then poof he scores a couple out of nothing but his above average shot.
Need to take better care of the puck against a team as offensively skilled as Anaheim.
Way too many neutral zone turnovers so far this period.
You’d think in the 3rd period that we would not have two forwards not coming back for a breakout. Guys need to make it easier on themselves.
Great neutral zone battle win by Kap.
As much as I would like the Oilers to take a pound of flesh they need to stay out of the box. Our PK is so scary bad.
Between periods, Cassidy was drawing up how Anaheim was countering the Oiler “box” coming out of their own zone after a clear. They are doing a great job attacking us with speed.
Normally like Friedman.
I hate victim blaming.
The truth is the reason players have begun embellishing is that the refs are terrible at their jobs and miss a ton of shit.
The inconsistent and incomplete reffing is the disease, the embellishment is the symptom as a consequence of the pathology.
You can’t embellish being boarded.
If that they can see a goal a whisker past the goal line under a glove, surely they can call clear cross checks. Surely they can see a team being frustrated down a few goals and not reward them for their shitty behaviour. Because that is when players are more likely to get hurt and the refs need to protect them.
The hit on Ekholm was unsuspecting and may have had the head as the initial point of contact.
Put the arm up for the penalty and then call the embellishment after if you must. Just call the damn penalties and don’t question if they needed help to see it
People love to complain about the embellishment in soccer, but even that’s just the natural endpoint of officiating that refuses to call anything that isn’t made into a dog and pony show.
Watching any big, physical striker take abuse without trying to go down on contact makes it abundantly clear why so many players try and sell everything, and game management has hockey hurtling down the same path.
There is embellishment because they feel.they have to sell the infraction.
Then the league has its mandated situational officiating so the player has to time the embellishment properly to get the call.
NHE
Embellishment is always the outcome when you create penalties where a millimetre or two is the difference between “fine” and “major offense”.
Suspect this was inevitable after the decision to crack down on head shots and such.
It might make sense to create a new type of penalty that is called independent of the referees, to take these difficult calls out of the hands of the refs. i.e. on-ice officials would only call the things that are “obvious”.
Astute observation.
The NHL badly needs to professionalize officiating and discipline.
Can’t ever remember the league being as well-officiated as when Shanahan was running player safety and making videos for clarity. Why’d they get away from that?
The Panthers-Vegas have set the standard teams mimic the Cup winners. It’s open season as Gudes the goon who has a history gets only 5 regular season games for taking out a top 6 player in the league.
Hopefully the game is out of reach later in the 3rd, and Dach returns the favor to Kreider by plastering Leo Carlsson. The refs arent doing shit.
So just call the rulebook. They did that coming out of the lockout 20 years ago for the first year and teams quit effing around in a real hurry.
I don’t need them to call crap in the scrums after the whistle. But call all the penalties you want, just do it consistently. And if it’s too much, puck don’t lie. It favours the skilled teams disproportionately and that’s ultimately what’s best for the game.
Amen brother
Agree that Savoie sold it, but Drai and Ekholm did not, and the Ducks have been dirty and whiny and embellishing like crazy. Odd montage showing only Oilers
The Sportsnet crew got the word from the league to insulate the refs.
I hate this league so much.
NHL officials in a downward spiral. When we think it can’t get any worse it does. I dislike sports betting but was hoping it might pressure NHL to improve. Obviously it hasn’t worked out that way..
During playoffs and HNIC, I started stepping away at intermission, just not worth hearing the nonsense.
Cmon Elliotte, quit apologizing for the refs.
What the hell are we doing, NHL?
Like, you want to see the stars get hit, that’s fine. No issue with Viel spending all series creaming McDavid.
But when you have a top-5 forward in the entire league, and a key to growing the game in Central Europe, and a 35 year old 3rd line plug goes full speed into his back 5 feet from the boards, it’s a f*cling penalty.
It would be a penalty if it was even Drai doing it to some plug like Washe, too.
But when it’s a top player in the league, you can’t let these guys get away with that crap, especially. Because your stars start to pull punches. Take shortcuts. Not play all out. Because they can’t trust that the league has their back and need to protect their own health. Such a shame.
Best 1st and 2nd periods by Edmonton, all playoffs, as far as I can recall.
Pretty mediocre second period. They stopped pressuring again. But at least they didn’t hand over multiple odd man rushes. Only 2-3 by my eye.
The only thing consistent about NHL refereeing is that it is a total crapshoot what they will call a penalty and what kind of new versions of rules they will make up in the moment. Bush league
Worst league in professional sports. Joke.
Why does Jack try to jinx the Oil and Louie is always lobbying for a Oilers penalty
They aren’t that good at their jobs and are privileged dudes who have had everything handed to them?
Nothing says “privileged” and having “everything handed to you” like 8 years calling ECHL games in Alaska.
I don’t like Jack and Louie but one of them fought his way to the nhl and the other did gigs like Alaska to move up the ranks. They’re hack but they earned the positions.
I would say the officials have lost control of the game, but I suspect the more correct statement would be that they’ve willingly let control go.
What is going on? No call on Dria obvious boarding amd now this washy rst starts everything and its even up
Linesmen protecting rats is the reason they get away with what they do. It is disgusting.
Score another goal and then go duck hunting…
Might need Clattenburg for the third,
To do what, get himself hurt?
You sure don’t like him?
Don’t like him? I’m cheering like hell for the kid and am hoping he accepts what he needs to do to play in this league for next year.
I would suggest you may not like him as you are hoping he gets put in a situation where is highly likely he gets hurt.
Refs created this issue with them not calling Ducks on their crap. The missed call on Drai was egregious. Ducks all get close to Ingram after the stop
That’s closer to 5 and a game than a non-call….
That’s what I was thinking
Can’t the league still look at that?
They can but I don’t imagine anything would come from it. It was a penalty, maybe a major, not a suspension though (in my opinion).
I really think the refs should be made available after games. There is zero accountability. Neither team happy because what will be called and missed is completely unpredictable
Wow how is that not a cross check on Dra??? wTF!
just a terrible non call