Well that one hurt. Not as much as the two finals losses. I think less than the loss to Vegas in 2023 as well. Your mileage may vary. Please read this.
What happened? The Oilers lost the plot again, and the PK ended them. In the final 11 games of the regular season, the Oilers outscored the competition, and went 7-2-2. Completely lost the plot against Anaheim, specifically on special teams.
How bad was it? At five-on-five in those final 11 games, Edmonton outscored opponents 23-19 (55 percent). In the series against Anaheim, the Oilers also won the five-on-five share by a total of 55 percent (17-14).
What about power play? 7-1 Oilers in the final 11 games of the regular season and 4-1 against the Ducks in six. I’d call that consistent success.
And PK? 1-4 on the PK, during the regular season’s final 11 games. The Oilers held the special teams edge with an 8-5 goal share in those contests. Against Anaheim, the Oilers bled out, 0-8 on the PK. the Oilers were 4-9 on special teams in the series. Gave back the five-on-five advantage plus a little more.
What about the goalies? As you know, I prefer five-on-five save percentage, as it gives each stopper a level playing field. Edmonton starter Connor Ingram had a .904 save percentage, Tristan Jarry .931. Ducks starter Lukas Dostal was .873, backup Ville Husso stopped all seven shots.
So, not on the goalie? Not for me, but Oilers fans blame the goalie for a large share of the team’s sins, so I may be stone alone. I would sign Ingram, and bring back Jarry.
Did you fall and hit your head? There’s no use chasing another goaltender just to find out that guy fails too when the team decides to throw out the script and play fun hockey. When the Oilers pay attention, this team can win hockey games. When they don’t, or the gaps between the forwards and defensemen becomes too great, we get stretch passes, odd-man rushes and comments like “at some point the goalie has to stop one of these” and we are on the way to burying the new guy. I don’t see a Dom Hasek out there, if I did you would know his name.
So what would you do? My primary goal, if I’m Daryl Katz, is to not make another mistake. There have been too many, and this from a group of famous men who were hired to be general managers. I would bring back Bowman, because the organization hasn’t been searching for a replacement and that work takes time. I would restrict free-agent spending to offer sheets, meaning low-level since the Oilers don’t have a 2027 first-round pick.
What else? My friend Dave asked on the textline yesterday if I would trade Ike Howard for Sebastian Cossa. I said I would. That kind of deal makes sense to me, with the clear understanding that (for me) goalies are voodoo.
Would you trade Darnell Nurse? I would, and I think at this point it’s a priority to get it done this or next summer. Nurse has many good qualities, but his weaknesses (coverage, recognition of danger, passing, shooting into the crest) are a perfect match for the team’s weaknesses. He could be very effective on a team with less creativity/more defensive awareness among the forwards.
Would you trade Matt Savoie or Vasily Podkolzin? Are you nuts?!?!? The Oilers need to add more of these young and useful players.
Then why would you trade Ike Howard? Because the Oilers need to add effective two-way wingers, and Howard is more of a pure offensive type. Savoie could be an effective two-way winger on the McDavid line for years, or check down and do the same with Draisaitl. I don’t see Howard doing that, at least not to the same extent.
Well, just get rid of the veteran ‘pure offensive types’! Do you know who you’re talking about? No sir. You don’t trade those fellows, not even Zach Hyman. Just add effective players who can be the defensive conscience. Like Nuge. That kind of player. Savoie too.
Would you sign any of the veteran free agents? Ingram for sure, plus Connor Murphy and Kasperi Kapanen if they agree to short-term deals. No NMC’s, dammit!
Any players you believe will break camp from the minors? Owen Michaels has a real chance based on what I’ve been told about his range of skills. Howard from the farm, Roby Jarventie too, plus Quinn Hutson has a chance on a depth line. If Howard and or Jarventie make the club, chances are it cuts off all other rookies from opening night possibilities. On defense, I think Damien Carfagna might be ready, and he could slide up to the big-league roster behind Mattias Ekholm, Jake Walman and Spencer Stastney in case of a Nurse deal. Atro Leppanen may force his way into the conversation. I remain a fan of Alec Regula, don’t know if he’s in the plans.
What about Beau Akey? There’s a disconnect there. Don’t know what it is, but I’ve been watching this organization for years. When management decides Marco Roy isn’t better than they guys they signed to NHL deals, even though he is, it sticks. Akey isn’t the defenseman the Oilers are looking for. Look for Akey to Mike Kesselring them once dealt.
Well, your offseason is dull as dishwater. Perfect. I don’t see the need for another Mikko Koskinen, Jack Campbell or Tristan Jarry.
Oilers plagued by familiar issues in Round 1 loss. What does it mean for the future?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7243695/2026/05/02/edmonton-oilers-connor-mcdavid-roster-bowman-knoblauch/
We have had a lot of very good coaches thru here in the last number of years and the stars on this team still refuse to play a 200 hundred foot game .Cooper could not get McDavid to do it at the Olympics. I
dont care what coach is behind the bench until the players play properly it wont happen and if egos say I want to play “my ” way and I dont have listen to the coaches because Im one of best players in the world then nothing will change but new coaches ..Gretzky learnt that lesson so did Crosby and Yzerman ..
KK had them playing right the last 11 games of the year but when we get into the playoffs its all of a sudden “Sorry Im playing my way ” The players did it at certain times during our last two runs to the SC . When we played right we won when we played river hockey we lost ..
IMO a lot of what is wrong with this team is egos
And so-and-so said Lebrun is no clickbait artist. Riiiiiight
LT spoke yesterday about McDs ceiling, his numbers for the past few years and the fact that Drai may need to be our number one center moving forward.
When was the last time McDavid out scored his mistakes? 2 or 3 years ago? Woof.
Story after story of his influence on the teams and his lack of defensive play. He’s a one trick pony.
Time and time again, Drai stays late after practice with the rooks. McD is nowhere to be found, just like his backcheck.
McD for Shesterkin
Pls put the bottle down and get some much needed reast
The ducks were taking plenty of liberties with McDavid, not saying we should bring him back but it sure would have been nice to have Kane out there.
Which Kane? 2026 Kane? Or 2022 Kane?
There’s a reason that ilk is so hard to find.
Kane’s injection into the line up last post season definitely didn’t hurt.
I agree with locking up Ingram. But I’d add a KHL goalie for insurance. You overpay in G next year, but you’re going to anyway. Makes it all the more imperative that they don’t overpay any free agents, UFA or RFA.
$2-3MM, I’d guess.
Oilers did it with Koskinen 5 years ago. He was an average starter or slightly below. Avs did it with Francouz. He was arguably an all-star at certain points. Certainly a strong starter for stretches, though he never fully captured the net there.
Francouz’s first contract, after coming over the the KHL, was basically league minimum. Koskinen was signed for $1.5M, 1 year in his first deal.
The best options on the best teams are all Russian, so they’re probably harder to entice (hasn’t really been done yet).
Probably about half a dozen candidates who have a significant delta in SV% between them and their backups as well as at least 2-3 years of above average to good performance.
If they’re making, say, $2.5M on a one year, one way “show me” contract, the most you’re footing against the cap is $1.5M if you have to send them down. That’s a good bet to make for insurance. Every day.
And I’m sure you can convince one of them to come over when you point out the stock of Vasilevskiy, Goalie Bob, Shesterkin, and Sorokin. And the opportunity to play on the same team as McDavid and Draisaitl.
Koskinen’s deal was $2.5M his first year.
Going to the KHL just because, when there is solid depth in the system and plenty of 4-5G options in free agency, doesn’t make sense to me.
If there’s a quality tender available, or in Finland/Sweden/Czechia/USA, sure, grab him. If not, there’s not an organizational need to do so.
Johnson and Ungar are good bets.
IMHO this season points to a locker room issue which plagued the team from start to finish.
This season mostly points to a team exhausted, and too injured in the playoffs.
This
Most games in the nhl (split with panthers) two years prior to this one, still massing minutes for their two top players, lingering injuries.
Second “best” team in the league for past two years, best team didn’t even qualify for playoffs.
Neglecting a spread workload, not bringing in the right players on trades early season, minus the hurricane.
If locker room issue means improper resources, sure. Obviously there’s frustrations on how the season went, I doubt there is a “division” in the locker room like Vancouver the past years.
Ok just a question and I am prepared for some venom about it.
What would the return for a willing McDavid or Draisaitl be in a trade and would that be enough?
My reasoning here is there are 300 minutes to fill in a hockey game. McD drai and Bouchard combine for about 23% of those minutes while taking 39% of the cap and provide 37% of the offense.
Well… there are five skaters on the ice at one time so I think your percentages are
a bit skewed
72 minutes max at 24 each
These #s are strange.
Even if they each averaged 30 min, they would only take up 20% of that 300. I think your combined percent is quite high.
And if McD gets paid 12.5 and bouch gets paid 100.5 and the cap is 95.5. well my math says that 23/95.5 is 24 percent of the cap.
They scored 83 of the 282 oilers goals. That’s 29% of the goals.
Your numbers aside, McD is a value contract. Period. End stop. You don’t think about trading him.
Their average ice time Is a combined 47 min. That’s about 16% of the minutes.
My numbers include all 3 not just 2
Ugh I’m such an idiot. I left Drai out. Sorry!
Remember that time McDavid marveled at Coopers coaching style after playing for team Canada? That’s the tell here. He wants a coach that is going to deploy a system and hold the group accountable. Sometimes the gifted kids need structure to thrive.
I think its plausible that instead of firing KK, coach might be instructed to dig in now and implement a system and accountability that hasn’t existed the past two years, Top to bottom. I know KK isn’t Cooper, but if his job is on the line, there’s no reason he can’t run the show like Cooper even if it doesnt come naturally to him.
Do you think Cooper can get Connor to play more of a 2-way game, ‘cuz so far that’s something he hasn’t been willing to do. Individual accountability (by everyone / management, coaches, players) is important to a team’s ongoing development.
Can Jarry simply be put on waivers?
would the Oilers do that?
would anybody claim him?
His stats with the Oilers are worse than they were with the Penguins when they put him on waivers. He cleared then, so I’m reasonably sure he’d clear now.
Yes, he can be put on waivers.
He would not be claimed.
After clearing waivers, he could be sent to the AHL
The new max buyable amount, with the increase in NHL min to $850,000, is $1,225,000 – that’s all it will clear so there would be a dead cap hit in the $4MM range.
Add to Campbell’s buyout costs, and you got a whole lotta wasted money in goalies.
Bowman’s and Knoblauch’s pressers sucked. I’d fire both of their asses. Draisaitl’s was great. McDavid’s was mostly very good, but a touch guarded. because he always has to be somewhat guarded. The heavyiness of the crown.
Sucks that the situation makes it nearly impossible to hold Jackson and Bowman accountable. Unfortunately, we will have to rely on these bozos for the rest of the McDavid era.
I think Coach Garlick is gone – and rightfully so. Someone with experience incoming. The rest – 1 year reprieve.
Bowman’s presser sucked based on……?
By all means, suggest some alternatives.
Two major moves that need to happen this offseason are nurse being moved. I believe he’ll be open to some teams. He has a 10 team list next year and he knows it’s inevitable and that the fan base has soured on him. Why wait another year, get your young family settled earlier than later in a new city.
kk needs to be fired. The players have tuned him out and disagree with his tactics. They’ve said it publicly in the media.
find some offence to help the top six.
find a goalie.
I guess there are more than two things.
Great post LT.
I do think Bowman Stays and I do think he fires Knobby and the entire staff and lets his new coach bring in his coaches.
Not sure on Jackson, but he may fire him and let Coffee take that position as he seems to luv the guy.
I do think Cossa will be on the block as I see Gibson not going anywhere but apparently they love Augustine and if they bring him in right away Cossa is waiver material next year. So pretty sure he would be moved. Be nice if you could move Hutson for him but I think you are correct in that they would want Howard.
I think both Murphy and Dickenson will try for as much $$$$ as they can get, so not sure either will be back.
I would love for us to get Mason Marchmant but he also could ask for a large bag.
Should be a very entertaining summer
Everything Murphy has said (a few weeks and today) suggest the exact opposite (re: money) but, of course, we’ll see how it actually plays out in real life.
The biggest issue to address is the PK, we were great, what happened. McLeod obviously but what else, how can it be fixed.
Blake Lizotte was #3 GA/60 and #11 xGA/60 on the PK and doesn’t look expensive. I would definitely check in on him.
I was also interested in Coyle but Dickenson’s PK numbers are decent too, so maybe he’s worth keeping, still like Coyle though, we need more beef.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=4v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=ALL&pos=F&loc=B&toi=100&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
I would be shocked if coyle doesn’t get solid bank and likely too long a term for a 34 year old guy. Right guy for a deadline pickup, not sure right guy for extended contract.
Am I mixing him up or is Lizotte not a Hartman-like dirty dick?
Reading all the comments. THANK YOU OP for the updates. makes it much easier for me to follow. I was planting my garden so didn’t see any interviews.
Again, Thank you OP
Welcome.
After a moment to think clearly about.
Next Year,
Coaches
MacFarlene, Aubrey, Allen, Stuart and Coffey are gone. I would keep KK.
Coffey has been good BUT he doesn’t want to coach, the others came with too little NHL experience. I would move MacFarlene and Allen to Bako, to continue to learn the pro game.
KK has a significant winning record, is calm and now has tenure with the team.
General Manager
Bowman and Jackson can stay BUT they have to move to Edmonton, buy a house and live in the city full time.
The big 10 –
1C McDavid – 20 minutes TOI no PK
2C Driasaitl – 20 Minutes TOi no PK
3C Hopkins – 17 Minutes TOI 2PK
1RW Savoie – 17 Minutes TOI 2PK
1 LW Pokolzin -17 Minutes TOI 1PK
2RW Hyman -17 Minutes TOi 1 PP
1LD – Walman 20 Minutes TOI
1RD Bouchard – 25 Minutes TOi 1PP
2LD Nurse – 22 Minutes TOI 1PK
xxx Goalie
bottom 10
2LW Howard- 17 Minutes TOI 1 PK
3LW Hutson 15 Minutes TOI
3 RW – Fredrick – 15 Minutes 1PK
4 LW – Jones 12 Minutes 2PK
4 C – Samanski 12 Minutes 3PK
4 RW – Dach 12 Minutes 3 PK
2RD Murphy 22 Minutes 1 PK
3 LD Ekholm 19 Minutes 2PK
3 RD Emberson 16 Minutes 2PK
2G – Jarry 38 games
Nurse – he is fine as a 2LD the cap is not a problem in 26/27 fans have to get over the cost.
Jarry is ok as a back up
Howard and Hutson bring speed
Toughest to play against 4th line
the 2026 free agent group is bad – wait to the deadline.
Hopkins is a third liner now
Ekholm slots correctly
injury free for the playoffs
Can’t have Hutson ( who is not overly fast) Howard and Savoie all in this lineup. We lacked toughness and especially in front of the net. May 2 but not 3.
Jarry is way too expensive as a back up.
Well thought out post, just a couple of thoughts:
1) I think Bowman does live in Edmonton full time during the season (Jackson does not)
2) I think Hutson is a tweener, can’t imagine 15 min per night.
3) Yes, Howard asked to PK at the very end of the season but I’m not sure there was time to make that happen. I would suggest there is 0% chance he’s on the PK – he’s Roslovic.
As many of us have been saying…
Post
@GenePrincipe
“I am concerned. We are trending the wrong way.” @EdmontonOilers
Leon Draisaitl
Indeed, Leon.
Eh. After back to back finals a step back was almost guaranteed.
Next year is what really matters.
The Oilers need a coach with a Stanley Cup on his resume. Cooper or Cassidy.
The coach needs to have that credential over McDavid. To be able to say “I’ve been there and I know what it takes”, vs Knoblauch who is just guessing at what it takes to win at the NHL level.
Knobber is an NHL calibre coach, maybe even top-10, but they need a guy who can push the team to the top.
As it stands I don’t see KK being the right fit. He may get there, no time for him to learn on the job. He didn’t get them to the finals, Connor Drai and Bouch did. Cooper and Cassidy didn’t win for years after they started as HC. Connor and Drai don’t have years
And when they got there, his tactics didn’t hold up. A more experienced coach might have got them over the top. Especially bad the second time where he knew what was coming and where his team’s weaknesses were against them, and there was nothing
Oilers were 24-11 goals with McDavid and Drai off the ice in the playoffs last year (5 on 5). The narrative that McDavid and Drai dragged a mediocre team to the SCF last year is not represented by the numbers.
How many coaches have won Stanley Cups for two different franchises?
The GM’s dad for one!
The other two not in the remotely modern era. Only one in the time most of us have been alive. And probably the greatest coach of all time.
Are the Oilers going to be hiring the greatest coach of all time when they hire a Stanley Cup coach?
I am not opposed to a coach who has previously won the Cup, but it is not a silver bullet.
Funny how you would figure that the experience of winning the cup would somehow disqualify said coach as a candidate.
I think Cooper is world class. If he can’t get you there nobody can.
Cassidy is a top-5 coach for tactics and structure. Importantly, he may lack the fear of barking at McDavid and Draisaitl for lazy plays. It would be positive friction.
How many GMs have?
I mean I would like Cassidy. But it’s funny how we really care that a coach has won Stanley, but when it comes to players it’s an archaic measure.
This team desperately needs to bring in some high end talent in the offseason such as #1LW but we don’t have the assets to acquire this player and I doubt with the questions surrounding Mcdavid in the media I can’t imagine too many players being too keen to come here.
Hockey is such a funny sport about honour and bravado. Blaming the referees and injuries are considered taboo, even if those are the primary factors involved in what’s observed.
This year it was injuries to their Cs. I’d venture to conclude that this explained 80%+ of what we observed.
This team’s strength is its C depth. There’s no D-depth, average-at-best goaltending, and not a particularly solid system on the defensive side of the puck. This team makes up for all these shortcomings with exceptional strength down the middle.
When your top 3 Cs are playing at 50% or less, you’re f’ed. They actually looked like the better team until McD was hurt though it was still close.
Gotta tip the hat to Quenneville for exceptional adjustments too.
I’d agree except they played the same way all year
Saw an interview yesterday that I haven’t been able to find since or I’d post it, but it was Pierre McGuire telling a story about him calling a game in Edmonton during the McLellan years.
McGuire said he caught the look of TMc during his commentary who shook his head and looked down, and it sent him into a tailspin about if he’d crossed a line. After the game he went to the coach’s office and asked about it.
McLellan said he’d wanted to talk with him, and started venting that he was unable to get any kind of buy in with the team about a commitment to playing team defence. McGuire went on to talk about how TMc was a disciple of defensive legend Jacques Lemaire, and also apprenticed under Mike Babcock and is legit in his craft.
Said the big dogs wouldn’t commit and there’s not much you can do until you get 100% buy in to get the team to play the right way.
I think that’s a bit rich in some ways, but it’s also telling. We’ve seen this team play stingy defence and still put up 3+ a game. Recently. For long stretches. Against top teams.
The consistency is what I find most baffling.
That’s what’s perplexing to me about the leaders wavering in D play. If they control the puck smartly and pressure to get it back, they will score plenty because of the talent. It will still be fun, far more than starting behind or giving up leads. The other team will get frustrated and if they fall behind it open the game up. That hasn’t changed from anytime in hockey
Spot on.
The galling part is we’ve all seen them do it, and not just for a few games here or there.
They had a great PK until Fraser changed the system, allegedly to give an easier path for the goalies. Well, their stationary box in the d-zone obviously wasn’t getting it done either. Waving sticks at pucks is lazy — get in the lane, or get out of the goalie’s eyes.
They aren’t good at getting in lanes. Well Podz can be, and the shot doesn’t happen, because he’s’ in the right position
We see it against us when Bouch is having trouble getting shots through. I doubt Knob will do much different, but if he’s gone the next guy need to focus on teaching better fundamentals, and get them to focus on just doing those things
The rest will take care of itself. Win or lose, keep doing it all season so it’s a new habit. Play and engage the whole team every game, outside of small periods when it might be necessary to load up. If they play right and better that won’t be so often
I saw that too. Led to my comment below.
This made me think of Renney, this problem goes back further than the Connor era. IIRC Renney was insisting on getting the rookies to play properly and how he used them, and the OBC didn’t want him to so he was gone
There was also the issue of the OBC insisting on rushing Gagner back early from injury and he stuck up for Samwise. This has been directly cited as one of the reasons he was ousted.
Do you not believe that 20 year olds can grow and mature as NHL players?
Because that story was 10 years ago. The only players that remain from that team are McDrai, Nuge, and Nurse.
The implication that the team has never played team D is patently false, and it clearly implies that these 4 are the common thread.
Nuge has always been committed to D, to a fault. This year was a clear outlier for McDavid, but his defensive WAR and other metrics have been solid for years. Draisaitl should have been a Selke finalist a few years back. And Nurse is, well, Nurse.
They’ve won 2 conference championships since then and played a whole heck of a lot of successful playoff hockey.
Should also add that 2017 was a long time ago and the league has evolved. People are praising coach Q for coaching to his team’s identity, being fast and skilled and committing to offense, not defense.
You can spin a narrative any way you want, but I would have thought that Oilers fans who have watched the team wouldn’t have fallen for that click bait.
Not quite accurate… the interview was recent; the subject was historical.
The fact remains, the Oilers have had an aversion to consistent defensive play since one metric forever.
Until they embrace taking care of the puck when it’s off their stick, they will be perpetually skating uphill in sand.
PS
Don’t confuse what I actually said — they’re quite capable of playing at an elite defensive level. The issue is for how long.
“The galling part is we’ve all seen them do it, and not just for a few games here or there.”
If I’m a role player on the Oilers, I wouldn’t see it as ideal that the team’s two superstars have a direct line to the HC and GM to voice their opinions on my performance. Accountability should come from the culture and personal drive, not from being scared of your coworkers with more power.
Can you imagine Sather going to Gretzky to get his opinions on Pat Hughes or Jeff Beukeboom?
The power/influence that today’s ultra rich athletes have is definitely one of the biggest changes in professional sports. When you’re paying a player a 100M+ and you have luxury boxes to sell, the owner will definitely go above and beyond to keep his marquee attractions happy.
So the injuries we know
Those are the injuries that are tangible and confirmed.
There are still people, including on this blog, that think it’s still the 1980s and you can smoke on the bench or play with a broken foot and still compete with the ever expanding skill set of a typical 2020s NHL player.
Don’t get me wrong, even with the injuries, poor decisions were made and I still hold the coaches accountable for the regular season.
But to over-react to the underperformance in one playoff round without considering that, maybe, having three 50 goal scorers hobbled would affect any team, is not something I would want management to do.
I agree that Kapanen, Murphy and maybe Dickinson are reasonable starting points but not to be held over a barrel for either.
I would run Jarry back because of goalie voodoo, past performance being absolutely discrepant with what we saw, and the alternative (giving more assets to unload or a buyout at his nadir) being untenable. I would look for a better 1A/B than Ingram. I love the idea of Gustavsson even if it may be a pipe dream.
Sniff for trade upgrades (e.g. Nurse) but forcing a trade for the sake of it is what got us Jarry.
Plan the team with 1 or more of the AHL standouts to make it early and get a full season, which hopefully includes our KHL man.
Get Cassidy or someone with actual NHL success who is not past their prime. Who preaches structure and can supervise all of the special teams. If McDavid truly can’t get on board (which I can’t believe would be true), that would manifest during the season and then the writing would be on the wall.
Don’t forget the injuries to Connor and Leon, confirmed by both Bowman and Leon when talking to the media. The severity and nature remains yet unknown, but we could all see there was something going on and neither was at 100%.
That was the first line. The top 3C. On TSN KK confirmed both McDavid and Dickinson had “broken foot/ankle”. And everyone was shitting on him, myself included.
It is interesting because I don’t see how he could have broken his foot on that play in game 2. And he wasn’t very good in game 1. Was it earlier and we didn’t know?
I’ve never shat on McDavid and never will, even if he leaves at some point.
Was adding to your comment as I didn’t see Connor and Leon mentioned. When you zoom out, Connor/Leon/Dickinson/Henrique is legitimately their 1-4C down or diminished with injury. That’s a tough hole to dig out of.
Stauffer was saying yesterday that JD’s ankle was busted in a few places and they were basically injecting him with one of everything just to get him back on the ice.
So everyone wants to stay. We need to add to the top of the lineup not the bottom. And I doubt too many teams are lining up to help us with our predicament. Does anyone take Jarry off our hands at 50% retention?
I think so and usually I’d say most likely as a clearly rebuilding team can pump and dump him SJ style. Trouble is next year that is likely only Vancouver, Calgary, NYR, and maybe Chicago. And only NYR has a backup G opening
I agree with LT, getting different goalies without the team play improving isn’t going to look much different
No idea what the team play will look like with a different coach, Id love to see the GM of the Oilers bring in an actual top flight goaltender and not a bunch of various levels of projects.
Ingram, Jarry, Skinner, Smith, Talbot all low tier starters at best.
Pickard a backup.
Bring In an actual show stopper and see what happens.
How to get that? well that’s up to the GM to figure out.
Send a haul for Pasta and Swayman.
I’ve got all the time in the world for a top goalie.
Once they commit to playing consistent team defence.
And let’s face it, if/when they do so, an average or slightly above goalie who’s consistent is likely enough to push them over the top.
Have any goalies like that been traded? Bob was UFA and got paid big time
Ulmark was renowned and recently traded.
Luongo was traded.
Markstrom a tier below but traded twice.
Gibson, Miller, both far after their best before date.
Knight and Askarov more recently, before smart money said they were bona fide.
A GM who’s not averse to making deals shouldn’t see this as too big of an impediment.
Spittin’ Chiclets
@spittinchiclets
“He’s signed for two more years and God knows where that goes, but we have two years here right now. We have to get significantly better.”
Leon Draisaitl shares his thoughts on the Oilers and Connor McDavid’s future.
(click for video)
https://x.com/spittinchiclets/status/2050626225971036365?s=20
Jim Matheson
@jimmathesonnhl
I would say one year. After next season if Edm doesn’t win they will go to Connor and ask if he is in for longer haul, multi-year deal for way more $18m AAV or more. If he demurs they will have to trade him in 2027 because can’t have him walk for nothing. 97 will work with them
Quote
If it comes to that, McDavid will work with them to the extent that he would likely give the team a very short list of teams that he would consider true contenders for a potential trade. The best hope the Oilers would have in that scenario is drumming up enough competitive pressure amongst those squads to drive up the offers. If the team has sufficient leverage, it’s a major reload opportunity. If not, rebuild here we come.
McDavid has worked with the Oilers on all of his deals.
He doesn’t owe Oilers shit – Matheson is a bit dated imo with some of his takes. I look at it more black and white.
My sense is McDavid would be more like Rantanen than Marner, but you never know. Outside Gretzky, the generational guys tend to not get traded, so very much uncharted territory.
Agreed Connor owes them nothing. I’m sure the ROI on his contracts has been handsome, but nothing wrong with getting some lovely parting gifts in return if it comes to that.
I’ll start worrying about that if next season they still can’t play like they should
Steve Simmons
@simmonssteve
Expect the Maple Leafs to have a press conference Monday to announce the executive team of Mats Sundin and John Chayka to run the hockey club.
They better start planning the parade. Chayka was legendary in the desert, and Mats with all that experience. Good thing they have a rabid fanbase
Predictions coming out of year-end medial availability. We know Bowman will listen a lot to McDavid and Drai.
I agree with all of this. The only thing I add id McDrai need to lead the team with a defensive conscious. It starts at the top.
100%. It was nice to see Drai own this throughout his presser
I put zero stock in what is said at these things. Talk is cheap.
Let’s see a defensive conscience from the Glimmers when October rolls around. And beyond.
I agree talk is cheap when it comes to player accountability. But what Drai and McDavid say in pressers does matter when it comes to org decisions
For sure. I think this is why they need a different staff. Cassidy seems like the best option, and he knows the team. I don’t hear him often, from what I’ve seen I’d prefer someone with a more positive personality. The team is already to prone to being glum, flat and get uptight too easily
Connor wrote in his Player’s Tribune article that he’s wired to go hard core all of the time, and Knoblauch tells him to relax. Somebody needs to actually get him to chill a bit, I think it’s part of the mental fatigue. Nobody can be 110% all of the time
The interwebs says Cassidy gets teams to play with discipline and the talent still produces. They won’t do well being too locked down
For precisely these reasons I’m more in favour of a guy who can build rapport with the team like Gallant, who’ll let the horses run but know when and how to rein them in a bit as well. The knock on GG is his tactical chops, which is where a guy like Nelson comes in as the associate/HC-in waiting.
Problem being it would seem GG isn’t in the best health and has stepped away from the game. Hopefully it’s not too severe and he’s a legit option for HC.
That’s too bad for him. GG may be too much personality, kind of a lose cannon
Here’s a breakdown of Gallant I’ve been working on:
Style. Old-school player’s coach. Gives veterans rope, leans on accountability through the room rather than micromanaging tactics, keeps systems relatively simple. The “let your players play” archetype.
Strengths.
Weaknesses.
If he doesn’t have disease, PEI will sort him out. From folks I know that have stayed in China very long, it’s so polluted they feel sick and health declines. Apparently Shanghai has significant air pollution
With the right assistants it could work. Muckler was that guy for the 80’s Oilers
Hence me continually stumping for a tandem with Todd Nelson. Get him onboard with the understanding that GG is only a couple/few years and then it’s his bench.
Hear hear.
Drai with Selke in his sights (not just his words).
McD to stop beating his head against the “offence first” wall.
Its not the “defensive conscience” of the two best players sinking the team.
The coaches haven’t been able to figure out how to get anyone to produce other then the top players, while also having the worst pk ever seen, while running systems that an experienced opposing coach absolutely cooks.
The fix will not be just telling 97 and 29 to defend better, that’s nonsense imo.
I did wonder about the ‘just a job’ comment and who it might apply to… Ingram for sure, I loved his perspective on the game, and he needs it for his health, but I can see how it doesn’t align with 97s singular focus.
Disagree. Ingram needed to decouple from the game and focus on other things.
He wasn’t a passenger.
Those comments were meant for others who were just happy to be there.
For the coaching next season, I would bring in an experienced guy looking for another shot that would be willing to work alongside Knoblauch as the key tactics/systems guy. Someone like a Boudreau or Laviolette. These are senior former HCs that have won a Cup that are probably willing to come back in the league as a top assistant. They can fill the knowledge gaps Knoblauch doesn’t have on systems and they’re a backstop that can be easily elevated to HC if things take a turn and the players tune out KK.
Developing a shutdown line, line matching, load management, and system adjustments are all areas Knoblauch could be better in. Time to bring in an experienced hand on merit as opposed to another personal connection hire.
Exit interviews sound like a lot of the players lost their mental edge after two long and draining playoff runs. Shame cos it was never going to be easier with Florida out this playoff, but it does sound like a rest will do the whole team good.
Common theme, Jason Dickinson loves it here, loves playing hockey here and he and it feels like home to his wife and him.
I have lots of time for Dickenson coming back on a value deal. The PK was better after he was acquired, and went into the tank when he fractured his ankle.
I have zero faith in this coaching staff. If next year starts with the current group behind the bench expect another lost year.
Agree with everything you say LT, but I don’t see how Nurse gets dealt. I get the theory that he loses some control of the process next off season, but who takes that contract?
I think we overestimate other GMs in this league. A lot of old school type of GMs who would salivate over Nurse’s tools and not put as much weight on the toolkit. In an offseason with limited UFA market and rising cap, this may be the perfect environment to not only move but possibly get value back
I hope you’re right, but best case scenario in my eyes is Nurse out for 1-2 bad contracts coming back. If Nurse goes at all. I can’t see us gaining any cap space from this transaction, again if it is even possible to do at all.
I would hope a creative GM could find sell him as the next Jones/Fowler/Lindholm/Trouba who glow up on a new team and extract possibly a Dougie Hamilton or fleece a Drury into a deal for Fox (longshot I know). With our mgt’s checkered past, it is right to be skeptical though
That hasn’t been Bowman’s MO as Oiler GM. Despite what some say around here he has not been worked in deals. He also won’t make deals unless they make sense. The criticism I have with the Jarry deal is if he has an attitude issue that should have been known and avoided
Cap is going up by 8.9% next year, another ~9% after that. Nurse is still in the downswing of his prime (31). Beyond the basic tools, Nurse is famous and he plays big minutes on a team that went to the finals 2 of the last 3 years. He’s also a hockey world’s kind of player.
Oilers would need to retain or take an overpay contract back, but probably less than people think. He’s moveable.
I’ve been thinking quite a bit about a deal centered around Nurse for Timo Meier.
Normally I don’t find 97s interviews that engaging, this one was interesting. OPs got the highlights but a couple comments I found interesting:
When asked how you spread out ownership of team success:
“You’ve got to care. It can’t just be a job to you.”
On being a good team vs. a great team: “You need to put everything into it…everyone kind of took it for granted that it would happen. But things don’t just happen.”
MacT has said that it was Gretz Messier and Lowe that drove the competitiveness of those Oilers, including learning to play better defensively, and the team learned and were able to win another without Gretz
Knoblauch hasn’t engaged the team as a group. And the leaders don’t show the example they want to see out of the rest and set it as the standard, which creates the culture. Maurice talked about Barkov being out and it being a big deal as he sets their tone
Bowman does need to get enough on the roster to balance it, seems close now to me depending on what happens with players needing contracts. Playing more responsibly doesn’t mean you can’t score a lot. Works for MacKinnon and Kucherov and their +57 and +43
Yep. I’ve always laughed at the Yzerman moment cliche, because the Yzerman moment was Federov taking the hard defensive assignments. That said, a coach that can be a bit more authoritative with 97 and 29 and actually get them to embrace the Selke mindset is needed. They both compete harder than anyone on offence. That same commitment defensively is variable, and absent most of this year. It starts with them, but a coach that holds the line on everyone’s defensive players and finds a role for all 4 lines is needed IMO.
It doesn’t even have to be in an authoritative way, persuasive also works (if you want the team to play that way it starts with you guys and this is why, as a start) backed up by holding them to it for the most part – every player has off games
As one who often plays the broken record of, “When McD has his Yzerman moment,” I share some of your skepticism about how much of an impact Y’s “moment” may have had —on overall team success (ie. Cups won). But what his coach says seems clear: Y made a decision to focus on 200 feet, and as the team’s leader, it had an impact on the team’s play. Eventually.
So often on this blog I read about either,
-KK’s focus on shot-suppression is cramping McD’s effectiveness as an offensive player, or
-KK isn’t asking/directing his stars to play more structured defensively, or ( most recently and most surprisingly)
-you can’t teach an old dog new tricks, ie. McD is “wired for offence,” and we (everyone in Oilerville) has to live with that.
My take:
—this team has at least a decade of excelling offensively, driven by McD’s talents
—this coach seemed to be having an impact on the team’s defensive capacities and habits (anyone who watched the 2024 and 2025 runs saw lots of evidence of that; this year, a few weeks between Nov 26-Dec 25, and the now-fabled “final 11”
—turning this offensively talented ship towards consistent defensive play while retaining offence takes leaders making sacrifices (and facing failures)
—one leader made token nod to Selke aspirations early season this year (he was not ever mentioned as Selke candidate after October, as far as I know)
—another leader made strong commitment to offensive play (he made good on his word).
—Scotty Bowman believes Y’s changed emphasis, from offensive prowess to defensive responsibility, helped that team win Cups; it took several seasons for that to happen
—Draisaitl and McD are smart. But as LT often asks, “Is our children learning?” Learning often involves painful experiences. Drai did take a very significant step backwards in his aspirations to win Selke. McD’s scoring achievements mean nothing next to his Cup aspirations.
Whatever else this team and this organization does in the next 12 months, if and when these two smart and talented leaders figure out how they have to play to win the Cup, their attitude and their example will change this team, from top to bottom. The ship will be on course for Stanley. (My guess is that “winning play” may involve shot suppression à la KK.)
—it took Yzerman 13 years to go from offensive phenomenon to more rounded player to Cup. I’m hoping McD makes that same journey. I hope his apprenticeship is a little shorter. But I’m not betting on it. Young talent and young success begets stubbornness, often only broken by repeated failures and regrets.
I do agree. When 97 decides that outscoring is more important than points he will be unstoppable. I think the right coach could help. I’m not sold on KK, the last two years were not solid from a systems perspective IMO. That’s not all coaches but …
With a big simile, Connor Murphy confirmed he wasn’t to be back on this team.
“Wants” ??
Wants
Thanks!
His wife loves it here – really gelled with all the other wives, the group.
One cannot discount the value of the work Lauren Kyle McDavid does for this org.
I fully expect him to return, mostly because he said money is secondary
“I want to win and I want to win here in Edmonton. That’s my focus” – Connor McDavid
McDavid asked about Leon’s comments about the org taking a step back and he agreed.
“The entire organization has taken a step back and it starts with me and with Leon”.
McDavid wouldn’t get in to what it would take to keep him there beyond two years. All that matters if competing for the cup and if they are, then, yup….
Acknowledged his fracture but says he needed to find a way to be better. I didn’t. It sucks.
He does see a path to getting back to where they want to be. It will take everyone being better. Including development of veteran.
“Us veterans need to find a way to be better and develop. That’s the only way it’s going to change!”
The brain trust has to be incredibly aggressive in the offseason and make some good bets. Another offseason like last year or the one before would be the nail in the coffin.
To be fair to Koskinen, he was fine in a back up role. Once they started over playing, and over paying, him he started to decline. Then the fans/media started in on him, and that’s all she wrote.
Asset management, a foreign concept on Kingsway.
Honest question.
If Dickinson is resigned can we expect it to work out better than the Henrique/ janmark/ Ryan/mangipaine signings? All of those players were good nhl veteran hard working players. What makes Dickinson different?
UFA class is very weak. Dickinson will get an overpay. Can’t afford another overpay on this team.
It’s a great question that needs to be asked. You got to give to get and that either means $$, term, or NMC. Very hard to see him take a discount from his $4M at age 31. So let’s say $4M is the best case scenario and same with say 3 years. Would you do it? I don’t think I would
I look at it as Samanski will hopefully be better than Dickinson next year. Then Dickinson would be a fourth line center. Not where I’d park any more than 2 mil no trade protection no term.
Also I’d rather open that spot for an upside potential player at minimum cap. The next samanski.
I tend to agree with you on this especially the cap management part. It’s kind of like a call option on a stock. Give Samanski a trial run during the year to see if he can fill the 3C and save $3 million which turns into say $10M at the deadline. Come deadline, you can cash in on knowing if Samanski is 3C, and if not, now it so much easier and less costly to add a targeted deadline with the extra space
“I’ve really loved my time here. I’d love to be back. I have someone I pay to have these conversations.”
Connor Ingram
————–
I do consider this home. My son was born here. I would love to come back but there are lots of things that go in to it. I felt I played some good hockey this year and I was consistent. Hopefully it was not my last game as an Oiler
Kapanen
Thanks for these updates. Saves looking for them elsewhere.
What a great comment from Ingram.
When asked about their high ice time, Leon said, yes, of course, he and Connor want to play lots and in all situations but they need everyone on the roster to be helping and, 100%, Leon and Connor have NEVER demanded to play like 24 minutes per game – that is a made up narrative.
Leon again confirmed that his pre-Olympic interview was NOT a shot at the coaches – it was a statement on everyone needing to be better including himself and the coaching staff.
Thanks for this…
Leon said he was at the top of the list of the defending issue. He was not at the top of his game, his details weren’t there. It got away from the entire group. Its tough to work on in the summer but it will be a focus.
Leon confirmed he was compromised to some degree. Didn’t have “the pop” – felts strong enough but definitely not 100%.
When asked if they need more people involved, Leon’s answer was “absolutely, 100%, yes”. They need more players engaged and helping. Talked about their best teams having so many players help – mentioned the likes of McLeod and Foegele and Ceci.
He 100% acknowledged a 2-year window with McDavid and “who knows where it goes after that” but talked about how essential it is they get better and back in the right direction.
This was his most interesting comment because he specifically mentioned the players who left from the 2024 run who also were the ones who objectively struggled the most during that run. I totally would have liked to see a way to keep Foegele and McLeod because they were better than what they showed during that run but this opened up the possibility that there are some rose coloured glasses on for Drai right now (his other points I totally agreed with)
Agreed. McLeod going was a hole that didn’t get filled and that hurt. Certainly miss his wheels. But, he’s 6th in playoff TOI with the Sabres and has 1 assist, and that’s with 18+ min on the PP. His lack of grit and talking about the perimeter being ok is why they moved on. Foegele and Ceci are golfing
Didn’t see too much of the Oilers-Ducks series this year as it was evident that this team was not playing good enough to go far. Besides the key players playing hurt, I thought that the coaching was the big differentiator. One reason why the Oilers looked slow (and this has been commented by many ‘experts’), is because the Ducks were anticipating the play and were there well in time to break it up. Guess who would’ve been very familiar with almost every move McDrai make in the offensive zone – Woodcroft. I think it was a masterstroke by the Ducks management to hire Woodcroft, which could have very well been with the single objective of nullifying Oilers top two guns. I’m sure Woodcroft is extremely happy to twist the knife and to have been part of reason for Oilers’ early exit from these playoffs. With an experienced coach like Q – who we should have hired, the Ducks with their young talent will be formidable from next season onwards. The move is on our side now to nullify their threat. Let’s see what the Oilers do.
To me, the 1st round exit came down to these factors
a) Injuries to key players
b) Coaching / adapting to Ducks’ tactics
c) Lack of desperation – maybe in their hearts, the players knew that they will be going far in the playoffs this year
d) Special teams failure
e) Misplaced belief that they can ‘turn it on’ and suddenly be last years’ playoff team
f) Not having suffcient wins in the first 60 games that would’ve given the luxury to sit the veterans and the injured before the playoffs. McDavid had to burn all his reserves to get them into the post-season. He did not have much in the tank for the playoffs proper.
WIth all that said, I think one big change they will have to do is to bring a veteran coah who will bring some strong system play and hold the supertars accountable. McDavid should realize that defense can’t be optional. While he can’t suddenly become a Selke candidate during playoffs, he can certainly be more defensvily aware and committed.
Given the parity in the league and the normal randomness of the performance of the bottom 6 forwards and 3rd pairing, it is very difficult to ‘build’ a team that is guranteed to win the cup. However, if the players are committed to win and play the system, play for each other and build a solid identity, there is a great chance that they’ll progress far in the playoffs.
Are you concerned that organizationally this has gone in the wrong direction?
Leon: Yes, I am concerned about that. We are not trending in the right direction. We’ve taken big steps backwards. We have to get a grip on this and get things back in there right direction.
Critical that Leon said this…..
Some are in denial of this….
Leon in September: I want Selke.
Leon in May: “We” are not trending in the right direction.
C’mon Leon. Put your adult pants on.
ps. Leon is the leader i expect the most from, in large part because I see him playing an active in developing and supporting younger player. So when he does things like talk about Selke aspirations, I expect him to follow through. When I hear him publicly throwing the coach under the bus (and his after-the-fact backpedaling does not absolve him), he’s being the petty almost-teenager I’m expecting him to have grown out of. Team leadership is about publicly taking personal responsibility for the team’s failings, privately talking to people who may be letting the team down, and doing your best in words and actions to elevate the team.
Leon expressly spoke about him having a disappointing year defensively and he didn’t di in to the details and he needs to be better.
My apologies for misquoting and maligning the man. I heard/read that he used the “we” word.
The next year is arguably the most significant season in Oilers history since the eighties.
LT seems paralyzed by the urgency. Do nothing because of the PTSD of GM’s continually doing the wrong thing. A Seinfeld summer is NOT really an option. Might as well just trade McDavid now.
The McDavid era should not end a whimper — going gentle into that good night. We should rage against the dying of the light.
In an accountability world, the owner would clean house, but that is not likely to happen. Jackson and Bowman are more blameworthy than Knoblauch, but the management is likely to stay, and the coaching staff let go.
Jackson and Bowman have made the roster an incoherent mess again. They have led an organization without alignment from top to bottom. They are probably going to get a chance to fix it, a chance to redeem themselves from the massive incompetence that they have demonstrated so far. I think it will be more than a collective sitting on hands.
I wish them luck.
— it’s certainly the most important season of the McD era full stop.
— Two years ago for instance after the Jays had a bad year management owned up said they had to be better and they made a bunch of organizational changes including coaching and over all philosophy. Few believed “Shatkins” was the answer.
— Turns out they were the answer, and the Jays have been humming.
— I thought JJ as POHO was a decent bet (despite the obvious Conner connection)
— JJs rogue GMng and using so much goodwill to hire Bowman were flags though
— Who knows. They have done some obvious really dumb stuff and made some big misses and lost a bunch of players for nothing have seen players leave and do well elsewhere and have just complementary if they develop perfect they can be NHL players.
— It’s been so frustrating this decade of mcdrai
— find 4 wingers for McD: really that hard?
— Nuge as Guy Carbonneau role in a 3rd line shut down line that can match against elite and score some PK etc
— a bunch of draft and develops and vets to run through the 4th line
— just average goaltending
— it’s wasn’t rocket science. Instead it’s been a decade of McDrai loaded up and irresponsible goalie spending.
— there is nothing in our system that is “exciting”
— roster old and the next two years are going to be as much about “is McD going to leave, when is he going to leave, we can’t let McD walk for nothing, is he going to resign”
Just like Bowman, when Knob was asked about reducing McDavid and Drai minutes he never really straight out said “yes” but did speak about opportunity for other players to grab more.
I don’t like the way he said that. It’s backwards. He is supposed to build a team and engage them all, not say opportunity and do what he always does, which is overplay his top 3 players
Ya, that caught my attention as well.
Coach says he doesn’t think he’ll be starting Fredrick in a top 6 role next year but he does think he can provide 10-15 goals with the right centerman and he can be a physical presence.
This past season started off bad, he was a step behind early (probably due to rehabbing during the off-season). It snowballed with lack of confidence, etc.
Expects a better Frederic next season.
As do I.
Frederic was a healthy scratch in the playoffs, outplayed by the likes of Lazar, Jones, Dach and Samanski. He can’t kill a penalty. As a pugilist, he’s not a deterrent. Dach got his physicality going for a little bit, but all signs point to him as an AHL talent. This is worse than Lucic, IMO, although the cap is less.
Lucic was 8.2% of the cap and Frederic will be barely over 3% of the cap – its a bad contract but not a massive achnor or anything.
He’ll be better with a full off-season to train and no re-hab.
Knob did mention that we has PK ability.
I’m upbeat on Frederic. Running that fourth line with Dach-Frederic next season, and a RH center, should give the team a fourth line that can make an impact. It’s been a long time.
Except Frederic isn’t being paid like a 4th liner, and that’s a problem.
I’d cut bait with Fred and offer him up at $1-1.5M retained to the league. Take the extra $2.2+M in savings and invest elsewhere
Fascinating……age curve + power forward.
8 goals scored previous season
4 goals this season
One can sure hope….but ….
Frederic just turned 28 in February – I’m not concerned that this is “age-related regression”. For me, it seems more reasonable that a an off-season of rehab (i.e. not hockey training), still being hampered mobility wise to start the season led to a slow start, confidence faded and it snowballed in to a cratered season.
Maybe I’m hoping more than anything but I expect a much better Frederic next season. Will he be that solid 3rd line power forward that we thought we traded for? Maybe not but something far better than we saw most of the season – his play down the stretch as a floor.