We talk a great deal about players who face elite competition, or are used against the soft parade. The folks at Puck IQ and their fine work allow us to drill down on this area of the game. It provides treemendous insight into what is actually happening on the ice. Please read this.
It also allows us to monitor player progress. Here, let me show you. Here are Evan Bouchard’s TOI per game against elites, season over season:
- 2018-19: 56 seconds
- 2020-21: 3:03
- 2021-22: 4:22
- 2022-23: 3:02
- 2023-24: 5:42
- 2024-25: 5:25
- 2025-26: 6:26
His first coach (Todd McLellan) faded him and that’s fair because Bouchard wasn’t ready. David Tippett used him sparingly, Jay Woodcroft increased his minutes and Bouchard rewarded his coaches with strong results from that moment on. Beginning in 2023-24 through today, Bouchard owns a 70-53 (57 percent) outscoring edge against elite competition.
People will say Bouchard owes all of his success to McDavid, and man what a lift that represents. McDavid-Bouchard together last season were 21-9, 70 percent against elites. Bouchard without 97? 9-8 GF-GA, 52 percent.
McDavid without Bouchard? 6-9 goals, 40 percent. Yeah. The argument isn’t “McDavid floats Bouchard’s boat” it is “Bouchard is the best option available for the McDavid minutes against elites” and no one can make a reasonable arguement against it.
We are fortunate to have Puck IQ. It gives us insight into the NHL and how it works, bringing clarity to chaos. PuckIQ wouldn’t have the impact in other leagues it does in the NHL, because elite players don’t play in the AHL. The more valued skill in the AHL is experience, and for good reason. It can make a tremendous difference.
This fall, Mike Babcock may have to learn than Bouchard’s missteps, while baffling and regrettable, are tolerable because of the mountain of value he brings to the game. Those who suggest Bouchard may have a tough time with Babcock misunderstand what motivates people. Fear. Or in this case, fear of losing. Babcock didn’t come to Edmonton with the mindset losing games is a good idea. Bouchard is central to this team’s success. Fade him at your own peril.
On the Lowdown today, Jason Gregor will be our feature guest and we’ll talk Elks, Jays, Oilers and more. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Examining Oilers centre depth: Locks, hopefuls and a Condors new wave
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7500875/2026/08/09/edmonton-oilers-centre-depth-chart/
Bizarro world in the Jays game. Red Sox runner leaves third early not tagging up, and despite 3 outs on the field, New York office gives Boston the run for the illegal runner crossing the plate. Explanation is Jays failed to appeal to third base. Jays say they were waved off the field by the ump.
Tough sport when you have to get 4 outs when the other team’s base runners forget how many outs there are.
“We aren’t sure when Janmark is injury wise” – Bob Stauffer, Aug 10.
He was on that Friday and started the show off with it today.
Am I the only one who is anti-expansion in North America? Do we really need more teams? Watered down talent.
I would be ok with a European league or division because Europe is kind of sexy. Adding more teams to the Southern states seems like such a waste. Make it virtually impossible for your team to ever win a championship.
I was anti-expansion when we were at 30 teams. Honestly they could have contracted to 28. Does the NHL need to have the most teams of all the big dog leagues?
The ideal is that every fan in their later 40’s or in their 50’s can remember a time their team won. That won’t ever be reality but that should be the dream.
Hockey is massively growing sport in the US and non-traditional hockey markets in Europe like Germany.
With another 2/4 franchises in the southern US, the ascension of the NCAA and rapid USHL western expansion, the NHL is rapidly becoming an American League with a few quaint Canadian teams hanging off the periphery.
With now most high picks avoiding Canadian junior and the AHL the coyotes is almost complete.
The death of HNIC is a very visible emblem of the end of an era.
No owner or player is going to say no to expansion. This is why it’s imperative to win during a window or you might be waiting another 25 years for a legit chance of winning the Cup. Take the Red Wings for example they were well managed with a smart G.M yet they haven’t been past 1st base in 20 years. Holland had the team after the Jack Campbell setback Holland tried winning with a 3 dressed up as a 9 in net. Bowman who’s valued the Goalie position his entire G.M career I believe was duped into believing we had a championship goalie. For what it’s worth if Pickard doesn’t get hurt we win the Cup. Pickard was in the Jim Craig zone making the saves at the right time. Of all the players I felt the worst for him.
Seems like a bit of hyperbole to categorize the NHL as becoming ‘an American League with a few quaint Canadian teams hanging off the periphery.’ If the goal of the league is to make money for the owners, I don’t see what you’re suggesting changing that much at all.
https://thesportscast.net/2025/11/25/nhl-team-valuations-2025-rankings-revenue-leaders-and-whats-driving-record-franchise-growth/
According to CNBC’s Official NHL Team Valuations for 2025, 3 of the top 4 revenue generating teams are Canadian and the Canadian teams take 3 of the top 5 places in terms of franchise values.
In terms of average revenue, Canadian teams averaged $273M compared to American teams $235M. As for franchise values, Canadian teams average value was $2.55B compared to $2.1B for American teams. That’s with both Ottawa and Winnipeg near the bottom of the pack.
As far as the most recent expansion teams go, Vegas is the only one in the top half of the league when looking at the franchise value of the 5 most recent expansion teams. In terms of average revenue Minnesota gets into the top half as well, but they are the hotbed of hockey in USA and probably should be there based on their hockey culture. I do give the NHL a lot of credit for Vegas. They moved quickly to become the first major league in the market and it gave them a good head start. As for Utah, Seattle and Columbus, it seems like the law of diminishing returns is taking effect.
Are there there any more American cities available for expansion that could do as well as Vegas? I know Houston has the 6th largest television market in USA, but hockey wouldn’t be the only game in town. Dallas has been financially successful, but other large southern TV markets in Atlanta and Phoenix have already failed. Perhaps the NHL should continue the Phoenix model and move less profitable franchises to more lucrative locations and/or ownership situations.
I don’t see Toronto giving up their monopoly on the Greater Toronto Area, but the NHL could do a lot worse than moving a flagging franchise or expansion team there.
Even if a Canadian team never wins the Stanley Cup again, the NHL will always need Canada for it’s fans and money. The Canadian Teams won’t be just hanging on the periphery.
HH/FlipTheNachos – “ With now most high picks avoiding Canadian junior and the AHL the coyotes is almost complete”
What?
Can somebody that’s smarter(doesn’t take much these days) than me, please explain what the heck that means? The coyotes is almost complete?
Yes for sure it is business driven. I am just saying it is less fun.
As a Canadian living in WI and actively does business in MN, WI
& IL, I can say hockey is massively underperforming here. Maybe its a different story in the New England area, but not here in the Mid-West.
The NHL is going the wrong direction on all of this, but sadly I can’t see it changing.
Gate-driven leagues that price themselves out of selling tickets don’t do well.
The NHL of all the leagues should have an easy time getting away from being this way – but won’t even make a serious attempt. It is quite sad.
People can moan about MLB all they want – but that’s a league that can pay stars, make owners money, doesn’t crave or need expansion dollars and keeps ticket prices quite affordable. Go look up how cheap it is to head to some of these games. That’s the model.
I agree to an extent. MLB also plays 150 games a year which makes a huge difference for revenues.
I am confused by people that think Babcock and Bouchard will not be a fit.
Babcock loves skill. He was one of the first coaches to deploy skilled 3/4 lines. Babcock’s best years came when he had an abundance of skilled players. He is great at coaching and managing talent.
I think Bouchard will have an excellent season under Babs.
The most egregious stories about Babcock involved his treatment of marginal players (especially non-skill players) and his treatment of veterans near the end of their careers. I don’t think Bouchard falls into either category.
Bouchard’s only at risk if he has any big career milestones coming up or any sick family members flying down to see him play.
(I reserve my right to make fun of Babcock’s history of making comically bad decisions just to send a message to players)
lol I find the Babs stories and hiring funny.
But Stauffer told me how great he was in Lethbridge so I am all aboard now! What could go wrong!
Stauff brought that up AGAIN today.
Chalk me under the column of people that think Bouch will struggle early under Babcock. There will be friction. I think however they both are aware of each others’ resume and that will ultimately make it a more positive process. Ironically I think Nurse could have excelled under Babs, but that contract had to go nonetheless. I think he will will have a good season under SJs system. The guy simply could not perform in chaos.
That last comment is Nurse in a nutshell (w a very low threshold for scenarios qualifying as chaotic). I wish him well and hope he crushes it in SJ
Perhaps.
On the other hand (1) I think Babcock is a smart enough hockey guy to see that the “perceived lack of effort” that some have with Bouchard is not actual lack of effort and (2) importantly, he’ll thrive under DJ Smith who will take him to the top level.
Babcock is not one that will punish mistakes for the sake of it. Mistakes will happen and are permitted if made within the structure the player is being asked to play in. I don’t think he will have an issue with Bouchard.
Bouchard always comes out of the gate looking sluggish and mistake prone before he settles in to being an all-star. We will learn within 10 games how the Babcock-Bouchard relationship is.
I am hopeful that Bouchard will find his way in to the season much sooner as time goes on – its gone the other way to this point but it doesn’t have to be that way.
The season is a grind a marathon especially for Bouchard who’s involved in a huge chunk of minutes maybe even more with Nurse gone. I would rather see playoff Bouchard all the time yet we all know that’s humanly impossible unless you’re peak Bobby Orr of course. If Bouchard struggles coming out of the gate Babcock won’t even race an eyebrow.
I think it will be far harder for McDavid than it will be for Bouchard or Draisaitl.
Bouchard should have far more help from the forwards under Babcock, which means who he is supposed to defend much easier to recognize.
However, the boxcars of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard will probably be down.
I see your point but what if Babcock gets the team organized and like your Bouchard point Connor is convinced and accepts that he can play his individual game instead of thinking he needs to carry the team on his back? I think that is what has lead to the play that’s less conducive to winning
I think the game plan is to allow less gapping which will result in more turnovers going the other way. Shea-Murphy equals tighter gap control then we had with Nurse-Kulak I think as a D-unit you’ll see a very conscious effort to stand on.
If this team is able to execute the pressure style and get the puck back, if the likes of McDavid (and Hyman) commit to stopping on pucks in the defensive zone and battling for possession as opposed to trying to poke the puck ahead for a fast break, this team will have the puck more and their offensive stats could go up.
I think edmonton goes super nova this year: division, president trophy and cup. Draisaitl wins heart. Mcdavid MVP. Its special year.
You forgot Bouch … Norris
Led all defencemen by 14 points, was 1st in even points, and had a sparkling +25 (and the underlying is always net positive) and came 4th in voting.
Werenski ran away with it while limping to the barn while his team bottomed out of playoffs losing 9 of thier last 11.
He’ll get the Norris when DSF picks 1 team.
San Jose will win a cup before the Oilers.
And Keaton Verhoff will win the Norris before Bouchard.
There ya go.
I hope that feels good for whatever reason it was required…however uneccessary and useless it is of any worth responding to.
I fully believed in the Sharks winning a cup with this core Grier was building until he spent a ton of cap on Nurse and Trouba and Celebrini demanded the bag. Now all their other players will follow suit and they won’t be able to keep them.
Unless elite core players take team friendlies the cap eventually comes calling, culling depth. Makes me think of Sid and his perpetual 8.7M, last Cup in 2017. The Pens sure blew that gift
When you compare San Jose’s impending cap situation with Montreal’s I would now say Montreal is far and away ahead in the chance to win Stanley with the current core.
Montreal is weak down the middle. They have to trade for a centre or hope Hage develops into the guy.
True. When I look at the Habs roster while their cap is solid, they don’t look like they’re currently built to get all the way. One maybe elite player in Hutson, but so far elite skill I’m not sure about overall game. Kind of stuck in being a good team, but not built to win not having a lot of high end talent. Some players might change that, but not at this point. Need to win like the Canes did, and the panthers really, full team effort and hard to play against
I think we can add Suzuki – maybe he needs to do it again but over 100 points, +37 and an earned Canadian Olympic team spot – followed by up by. near PPG on a playoff run to the ECF.
Look a little deeper.
The Sharks appear to have only $3.4 million in free cap space BUT bear in mind they are still dealing with the last remnants of their massive teardown.
Logan Couture is still on SELTIR so they can use his $8 million cap hit any time they choose.
Then they have significant veteran contracts expiring next offseason…Barclay Goodrow $3.6 million and Dimitri Orlov $6.5 million add another $10 million to the pile.
They will also be free of another $5 million in cap space they have been carrying on buyouts and retention for Martin Jones, M.E Vlasic, Erik Karlsson and Tomas Hertl.
That’s an additional $23 million in cap space freed up just by doing nothing.
With the cap jumping another $9.5 million they have over $30 million to deal with a Will Smith extension and accommodate any depth additions.
Remember they have already added Ivar Stenberg, Mason Marchment and Michael Kesselring to last season’s roster and have two first round RD prospects not far off in Keaton Verhoff and Ryan Lin as well as Denver Pioneers MVP RD Eric Pohlkamp also expected to make a splash.
They will join former first round picks C Michael Misa and LD Sam Dickinson in a powerful young core joining Celebrini, and Smith.
I can see the Nurse deal as okay for now but expect he will be traded again once his trade protection eases as does Trouba’s after 2 seasons.
No, if they put Coture on LTIR, they would not get $8MM of cap space – not with $3.4MM in cap space now. They would gets $4.6MM of cap space and, once they went over the upper cap limit, they’d stop accruing.
I believe the Oilers have 5, in fact sixth in Cups won, all teams ahead are O 6 teams. Bu ya, it’s been a minute
Your imagination’s having puppies.
This is as on-point a comment as back in 2012 when you said the Minnesota Wild would host 60 home playoff games over the duration of Suter and Parise’s contracts.
They played all of 44 playoff games total.
Curb your enthusiasm.
We should be honest here Bouchard is near the top of the next list of the “Run Out of Town” Target that Matty, Spec, Strudy, Brownie and Jonesy love to deny they are part of.
Now that we have skipped Skinner and Nurse from their northern outpost, new targets will need to be identified. Articles and PODcast need to spur the renewed purchases of pitchfork and torches.
My target list;
Jarry – We all hate the math, the term and the AAV! Sail on in October
Bouchard – he is no Gator on a team friendly contract! Sail on in February
Frederic – Bowman should be fired by now, 8 years??? Sail on June
Didn’t verdud already attempt to speak for Oil Country as a whole, having bequeathed Savoie and Howard as his next targets?
Hughes 3×18. He is not 80% better than Bouch.
The contract is extremely team friendly these days.
Truth be told, a vocal portion of the fanbase is harsher on Bouchard than any of the local media. Shit, Strudy, Rob Brown and Terry Jones aren’t even in the room.
I am curious enough to float a thought experiment out to you LT.
Hyman nuge mcdavid
The center rightly in place for defense responsibility over bouchard jail break passes with gamble cheats and also covering back if mcbreak unfolds too quickly that rush back other way starts with center trailing wasting his energy trying to catch back up end to end speed skating style heroics.
Like full offensive upside a given unleash the beast mode.
Mcbreakouts partial to right side charges just makes sense not to duplicate forwards just give him clesr runway that side.
Let him bure it a bit more.
And honestly dickenson might even work great with this setup (faceoff winning higher degree defense end legit lockdown best option.
I agree the fear of losing is a major motivator and it is what drives most players and coaches.The difference between a Cassidy and a Babcock from his past life as a coach is that Babcock did break some players spirit thru some of his personnel interreaction techniques .Doing that will be counter productive. That is what I will be watching for this season because I don’t think Smith was enough of a buffer when they worked together before.
While breaking certain players spirit I would think Mike max’s out on other players. This is going to be one of the most interesting teams and storyline. Mike could be a huge mistake then again I’m sure Hyman has relayed to the boys he’s just what we need to get over that final hurdle.
To me it doesn’t matter who you are .Be it McDavid Hyman Bouchard etc there is a way of dealing with people that is respectful and collaborative which gets them to buy into what you are selling . Then there is dealing with people by using demeaning language or treating them in a disrespectful manner which can border on abuse. That system will not get the best effort out of some one for any meaningful length of time ,
There are those posters who seem to think that treating hockey players ( they are as human as you and I ) in that manner is ok if they are in the bottom 6 because they are some how different than the stars .Sorry that is hockey myth . They are all just like the rest of us humans and deserve to be treated respectfully ..I for one would think that this team would preform a lot better with a coach like Ron Brind’Amour than a Mike Babcock.
Some people are glad they get a boot in the ass to get them going others need to be coddled. I myself have needed both at certain times times in my life. It’s Mike job to motivate the troops if he can’t do that there’s a line-up out the door for 10 miles deep with coaches ready to replace him. Every coach from Bowman-Shero-Arbour-Sather-Muckler-Sutter-Cooper-Maurice all had their own methods.
I don’t think Rod Brind’Amour was available for hire as head coach.
There is fine line between demanding/hard and demeaning.
Has Babcock crossed it in the past? None of us have been in those rooms but evidence leads to, highly likely.
Has Babock been demanding daily in his dealings as NHL head coach, day after day, player after player? Again, we haven’t been in those rooms but I think that’s highly unlikely.
I’m not concerned about this becoming an issue. I don’t have my head in the sand to the past and I do acknowledge there is not zero risk this blows up but I think there is more of a chance that there are no over the line incidents and we see on ice changes for the better in the incumbent payers and team as a whole.
OP I think you should set the cool-aid aside until we see how this plays out . Babcock’s resume is a little less glowing when it comes to his people skills than you would expect in a manger of people . What bothers me is the comments in his press conference where in he dodged taking any responsibility for his previous actions towards people ( players and staff) and went on to say that the stars on this team have given him permission to be the same person that he was.
Time will tell whether he changed on his pwn over the last number of years or continues to shown signs of narcissism
If I remember, his coach from Juniors basically summed him up perfectly – it was something to the effect of “you may not always notice him out there, but he’s constantly making little plays to tilt the ice the other way”. I think that’s the part of his game that the eye test doesn’t always catch, but it sure shows up in his stats.
Is there a comparable player in Oilers History for Bouchard? Strong defensively but not a big hitter, but also not a shrinking violet. Pushes the play up the ice effectively, able to walk the line with the best of them, and is always a threat to take it to the net himself if he’s given a lane. To me, the comparable that I keep coming back to is Lidstrom, although not quite the same level of player.
But really, how lucky are we to have one of the best defensemen in the game to go with Drai and McDavid.
Evan is a point magnet in the same vein as Larry Murphy who could walk the line with the best of them. Bouchard uprightness as well as his blistering shot reminds of Guy Lapointe they even look somewhat alike.
The look on their faces. I see it.
Both of you should avoid identifying anyone from a police line up going forward.
Yeah. Well. Guy was happy that day? He was probably remembering his recent parade, along with”the usual route.” Bouch, not quite sure that’ll happen?
I also most closely compare him to lidstrom. One difference is Evan is sneaky dirty. Like Kieth.
At the Ottawa game this year Evan was taking to Brady. He seemed to be the only oiler with the willingness to push back.
From a metrics perspective, how does Tyson Barrie stack up against Evan Bouchard re: McDavid?
Asking for a friend,
PuckIQ is one of the great resources to find the answer yourself!
Barrie was already passed by Bouch in 21-22
lol
I believe the impact at 5 on 5 is where they are eons apart.
We said it during the year last year, Bouchard helps McDavid every bit as much as McDavid helps Bouchard – no, it’s not always like that. Peak McDavid is the prime floater of all boats but I don’t think last season provided peak McDavid.
I think this coming season could be peak McDavid that we haven’t even seen yet. From a 2-way perspective (i.e. stopping on pucks in the defensive zone as opposed to trying to poke the puck ahead for a fast break) and this will lead to even more offensive success (that fast break won’t come one out of every 10 times, but he’ll get the puck back 4-5 out of every ten times).
Youve been saying peak McDavid has been missing for a few years now.
His ability or inability to put any oompff on shots is key component that seems frequently in play as far as limiting his effectiveness.
Like goes from all world threat to telegraphing looking for passing lane. Been thst way since season he just hyper increased scoring. There is surely so damage that impedes his ability that is reoccurring IMO.
yes, and it has – his peak scoring seasons have not been the last few and his 2-way play was definitely not where is has been at its peak.
I’m looking forward to a McDavid that plays less than 20 minutes a night. Also hope that MB gets him to stop the hero plays and start using his teammates more again. Hopefully we also have more than one breakout plan and that it’s not either “stretch pass” or “McDavid solos it and tries to will ut into the net”. I have a feeling if we fix those thungs, we suddenly have Peak McDavid back this year.
Yep McDavid needs to stop going for the home run ball all the time let the play come to him. Mike will lift some responsibility off of Connor and Leon. I think this will loosen both of these players up having a partial gorilla taken off their backs. Babcock needs to spread it out get everyone involved and pulling on the same rope. Last year we were discombobulated.
Isn’t the complaint that he’s never selfish enough.
“Also hope that MB gets him to stop the hero plays and start using his teammates more again.”
Led the league in assists btw.
I have a feeling if we fix those thungs, we suddenly have Peak McDavid back this year.
Suddenly have peak Mcdavid back. Do you mean the one that won the scoring title with a broken Hyman (no not like that) Rookie Savoie and snapped hand Nuge by 8 points? Do you mean when he was carrying the play by himself all of 2024 playoff run?
I agree on the one dimensional plays.
We’re currently in peak Mcdavid. Enjoy it!
Fix those thugs.
Copy and pasted but forgot to add the 2nd quote. It’s August, not in game-shape clearly.
That’s THUNGS to you Dr. Mr. Cowboy William.
What I was alluding to was all the thuggery towards McDavid.
That’s my complaint.
I do think he’ll play less but I’m not sure about averaging less than 20 minutes a night.
I know Matthews was in the 17:30-18:30 range under Babcock but Matthews is not McDavid.
22:59 per game this past season – should be well down from that.
I agree.
Two of my favourite broken records (for some time now):
-when McD has his “Yzerman moment” we will see another dimension to this gifted player (and, likely, a Cup or three);
-for a month last season (Nov 26-Dec 25) we saw this team playing 200 feet, floating all boats (McD 5v5 went from 1.9 points per 60 in Oct-Nov 25 to 3.8/60 Nov 26-Dec 25; all goalies sporting good-to-excellent SV% and WIN%).
Last season saw many in Oilerville catastrophizing what went on. Some of the panic-driven changes (all of them?) were (are?) potentially derailing for this team. This is a time for the Capt to lead.
He and his primary lieutenant knew what the team needed a year ago (hence Draisaitl’s Selke comments). Unfortunately, they only played that way intermittently (the month of Nov 26-Dec 25 their longest period of good play). Given the stake they’ve publicly made (to play the way they always knew how to play), i imagine we’ll see a better team result this season. I also expect, like you and others, that playing 200 feet will only make the Capt more dangerous, offensively. We have some evidence, from those 13 games before Xmas, last year.
Leon-Connor were both forcing things too much too often. I never liked Babcock and his smugness but that could be exactly what this team needs. Mike will have huge chip after eating smash turd burgers for the last 5 years. They say teams adapt to the coaches personality and I do believe this. I believe our team will play with a huge cheap on our shoulders. A year from now will be talking about back-to-back Cups. Boooook it……….