Connor McDavid’x boxcars after six games (4-13-17) have him on a pace to shoot the moon, and the Oilers are enjoying high times in the Pacific this month. Will it last?
Well, the template Todd McLellan arrived at was McDavid-Draisaitl and hope Cam Talbot stopped everything, and that gameplan got the team into the playoffs in 2017. Mike Babcock has McDavid-Draisaitl, and Devon Levi is doing a fine impersonation of Talbot 2016-17.
Babcock also has Evan Bouchard, Vasily Podkolzin and the three horseman of the infirmary in Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Matt Savoie. He’ll need more. Pretty sure.
- Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl 13:37, 4-9 shots, 2-1 goals, 27X
The top line struggled by the Corgis (36 percent) and lost the HDSC but we’re all seeing 200-feet of work from the Glimmer Twins and their trusty Russian fellow. The line is 10-1 goals, 8.99 Goals-60 in 66 five-on-five minutes. That’s generational. That’s historic. Doughty took a shot at McDavid last night, rode him into the boards a little. That’s going to happen, you want to limit the wear and tear and that’s the Babcock dilemma. Great start by this line, just ridiculous.
- Formenton-Michaels-Joseph 10:40, 2-5 shots, 23X
- Hallander-Dickinson-Kapanen 7:07, 1-5 shots, 24X
- Howard-Samanski-Frederic 5:04, 1-3 shots, 23X
These lines were not competitive last night. You can say it doesn’t matter, but it really does. You can say it’s score effects, but Trent Frederic had the only five-on-five high-danger chance for this group. The Los Angeles Kings are not the gold standard of goal suppression, so there’s work to do. Zach Hyman can’t get into the lineup fast enough and more is needed.
We need to be realistic about these men. The Formenton-Michaels-Joseph line is 50 percent goal share five-on-five, but 28 percent expected. Regression is going to hit hard, like Dick Pound at a drug-testing convention. I like Michaels, but this is not the righthanded center a championship team is looking for. Not yet, anyway.
The Samanski line has played 21 miinutes together, 67 percent goal share but 40 expected. All three lines need an upgrade, and I suspect Josh Samanski is in Bakersfield soon. I would keep him in Edmonton. McDavid-Nuge-Dickinson-Michaels is going to need some support.
- Ekholm-Bouchard 14:21, 3-10 shots, 2-1 goals, 29X
- Shea-Murphy 11:07, 3-7 shots, 30X
- Mukhamadullin-Emberson 8:37, 2-6 shots, 0 X
- Shea-Bouchard 3:06, 0-3 shots, 0X
- Devon Levi 39 of 40, .975
Evan Bouchard is up to 6-8-14 in six games, and he’s full value for the gaudy boxcars. A stunning offensive surge from an already brilliant player, his five-on-five goal share with the captain is 86 percent (12-2 goals). Without McDavid? Bouchard is 3-0 goals. Yeah.
Devon Levi had a great night, made some terrific stops (eight of eight HDSC, an average team last season delivered 12-12.5 HDSC-60 including all game states) and I think we can begin discussing the possibility he gets 30+ starts this season. He is 4-0-0 in four starts, .903SP and 2.76 GAA.
Babcock needs a team who can take advantage of an opponent getting eight HDSC shots. Last night, all-in, the Oilers had four. Nope. Not going to work.
QANDA
Well, that’s it then. END OF THE LINE FOR THE STREAK! Well, hold on here. The Oilers have been hammering the Sisters of Mercy Intramural Division of Remedial Hockey Teams.
Meaning? The road ahead is more difficult, so we’ll see some reg losses in the future. Here, let’s look at the ‘what to expect’ scoreboard for the month:
- At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
- On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1) Actual 3-0-0
- At home to: Mammoth (1-0)
- On the road to: Mammoth (0-0-1)
- At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2)
- On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 5-0-1, 11 points in six games
Gorgeous! Yes, and getting tougher in the days to come.
That’s not what you said at the beginning of the month. You’re such a dink. Actually, I predicted it, and the numbers above prove it. I had the Oilers going 4-1-1 through the first six, the team is 5-0-1. That’s pretty close for a beginning of the season projection.
You still have them winning most of the remaining games. No, no I don’t. My projection suggests 5-2-1 the rest of the month. I think that’s a fair estimate based on the quality of the Oilers and the opponents on the immediate schedule.
You can twist the numbers any way you want, you said this team was bound for glory! The predictions above are from pre-season. I didn’t even get a chance to factor in the Hyman and Nuge injuries fully. I think a 9-3-2 record after 14 games will be good enough to lead the division. I don’t think this team is complete.
Your monthly predictions are poor. They’ve been mostly solid, although McDavid injuries and the poor start that cost Woodcroft his job did plunge my projections into a state of hell.
Probably where you’re going. On the Lowdown today, we’ll be joined by Kevin McCurdy, who will talk to us about the road trip, the Mammoth to come and we’ll tee up the Friday Elks game that could land the city football club in first place as a division winner. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Bowman has been great with “stockpiling” the barren prospect cupboards with college and Euros.
Why no waiver claims? Specifically the Nucks Raty? Yes, there isn’t much room for him when more players come back from injury, but he’s better than 75% of Bakersfield forwards, no?
If we claimed him off waivers he has to stay on the big club for 30 days I believe before he can be demoted to the AHL. That’s why you see marginal players clear waivers then get traded after the fact because they can go straight to the Minors. OP is much better at explaining the waiver wire many different rules.
Partially correct.
If claimed they have to keep him on the NHL roster of re-expose him to waivers to try and send him down.
If he did clear, they could send him down and, if ever re-called, he could go up and down until he has either (1) played 10 NHL games or (2) spent 30 days (aggregate) on the NHL roster – if either of those are triggered, he would have to be exposed to waivers to be sent down again.
The Oilers would very likely not be able to get him to Bako.
Much appreciated OP
Ah yes, the Vegas and Lavoie fiasco. Worth a 4th? Hah.
Great to see McDavid supernova but we all know this strategy won’t work against true contenders. Oilers have had it easy so far (except for injuries) but the coach is over playing the stars and has been wasting time not finding line combinations that will bring home Stanley
Chaulk confirmed that Akey was a healthy scratch on Sunday.
He said that Akey had a great summer including putting on 10 pounds of muscle but they didn’t really like his first three games and that he’s getting used to his body. Thought it would be good to watch a game (and get Bookman in who hadn’t played).
Akey will be back in next game.
The Oilers are doing what they needed to do, winning against teams that range from bad to meh. I’m not a fan of the way they’re doing it, basically relying on a handful of players, but you can’t argue with 5-0-1.
The next 5 games ( Utah x2, Wild, Carolina, Toronto) should give us a better idea of what the team is all about. And they probably get some players back so Babcock will have more to work with.
For me 20-30 games. They are instilling new systems and have new coaches and players
It takes a full commitment to beat the Mammoth who have 4 lines that are a threat. The first period after a Vacation in California will be a tell for me. 6-1 in the next 7 games baby! Hold onto your hat Cowboy we’re going streaking.
I said before the LA game that it was super important points wise as I think tomorrow is going to be a tough game. This trip was not gruelling but it was still 9 days away and they travel today, get half a day of family time before its game day/night and then fly out the next day.
Utah is one of those teams that have the type of players that can give the Oilers trouble, similar to Anaheim – young, big, fast, skilled.
I agree yet we always score on Utah at will. Which game do you think Cossa starts?
Hopefully as we go through this stretch we get some more healthy bodies back as Nuge, Hyman and Savoie if ready to go would help us alot with depth. Though I can’t really complain about the team being 5-0-1 without a second line to start the year.
Hyman should be back for at least one of the Utah games (per Stauff) and Dach is next but I dont think that’s likely until next week.
Nuge a bit longer still.
Probably only Hyman back for the Utah games
Just a thought and it’s early early innings but I wonder if you could pump and dump Jarry? Is Levi ready for a heavy load and is there anybody in the minors capable of a backup. That 5 million in the bank could be useful later on in the season.
With Andersons age, and being injured already I would keep Jarry for now. He may even play well under the new Babcock system.
Agreed. The other thing is who is there that ‘can’ be gotten to replace Jarry that’s clearly better? With the Rangers at least on the market prices are not going to be reasonable
Never a good idea to base trade decisions on just a handful of games. Levi’s play is very encouraging, but goalies are fickle creatures and it takes more than a year to really know what you have.
It would be Crazy to place that much responsibility on Levi at this stage of his career.
Sort of like burdening a rookie pro forward with the expectations of performing as a top-6 sniper.
Goalies are a different category than young skilled smallish wingers who usually show themselves by 22. It would take me hours upon hours showing the hundreds upon hundreds of skilled smallish wingers that reveal themselves at 22 or younger. We can go all the way back to the initial expansion draft 30-35 years before you were born.
Okay.
If you can shed Jarry’s contract and there is another Levi out there you make that move yesterday. Unlikely to be available in the market right now though
I’ve seen enough of Jarry’s inconsistency and poor form to bet that contract as not being good value for its remainder.
I’d hope young Bowman has been talking to the Rangers
Finally somebody that gets it.
Hey Aatu Raty is on waivers. Wasn’t he partly the reason why the Canucks got rid of Podkolzin?
Podkolzin was a Jim Benning draft pick, not one of Rutherford/Allvin’s and the coach at the time (Tocchet) was not a fan of his sideburns.
At the time, no one in Dysland thought much of the trade. The player needed a change of scenery and was never going to be supported by the current coach and management.
Speaking of Benning, his draft history with the Dys is wild. He either knocked it out of the park or completely whiffed. Very very few singles and doubles.
Podkolzin landed in a dream spot. I myself believe Leon early on had seen the potential while then taking this vulnerable kid under his wing. Leon has given Pod confidence in his shot release and overall game. Seeing Pod get robbed on the Leon like shot down low showed me enough on how skilled he is. As of now his forechecking has disrupted the break-out of opponents. Babcock knows Pod is breaking out into a star in front of our eyes. Pod is not reliant on the PP like a Dorofeyev. Stick Pod on any other line on our team and it will be instantly a threat to score. What a gem get by Bowman off a broken team. Stan needs to do this to Philly-Columbus-Wing. Hawks. Crappy teams usually have many prospects that are being double blocked by a new administration.
Canucks’ front office have beenplaying 4D chess by unloading Podz so they could tank bad!
It is nice to see other teams discarding talent and the Oilers developing it, for once
(and credit to Podz – he’s put in the work)
Canucks have placed Aatu Raty on waivers. Notable as he was one of two players (along with Arshdeep Bains) that the Canucks had to keep on the roster leading them to trade Podkolzin, signed at $1MM X 2 for a fourth round pick.
His brother has been one of the best Condor forwards to my eye this season.
What cost in a trade if he clears waivers which I don’t think will happen. What do you think?
Wouldn’t give up much – Condors are think now but that’s a function of the injuries on the Oilers – they’ll get bodies in due course.
How about a 2028 7th rounder he’s only 23 the man can forecheck with alright hands. I’ve always liked the Finns relentless forechecking abilities and we’ve had good luck with them excluding the all-star
Bandy player.
I thought Formenton would score last night. Alex did have a couple chances that he will cash in as the season progresses. As they say speed is king and with him being away from the NHL pace it’s going to take at least 20 games to catch up to. Even though Formenton has been away from the game for so long he’s done his job. Anyone that doesn’t think Formenton who is showing he’s a reliable everyday bottom six PKer for minimum wage is wrong in my Bowman-Mike-DJ opinion. By the way the Shorties will come (Formenton-Joseph-Savoie) versus a ultra aggressive PP’s.
This is a mature team, now with experienced, consistent coaching and serious buy-in.
They have won games with the lead and by coming back. If LA had tied things up last night, I’m now confident the Oilers would have hit the offence button and won anyway.
The next four games are going to be exciting and telling.
Finally a goalie that doesn’t allow that soft goal 75 games a year. Levi is a fun goalie to watch his lateral movement is top notch. Takeout that first game debacle where Canucks score with a second left in the 2nd and then the lackadaisical effort in the 3rd with the huge lead. Without that game Levi is sporting top of the league save percentage.
Uhh sample size alert. Not taking away from the kid, but pick a 3 game streak from any player and extrapolate and you’ll come to an unreasonable expectation
Definitely I agree in saying that it’s not like it can’t be sustainable he sees the puck well and he’s athletic. We took an easy 3-0 lead the boys went full defensive mode. We beat a hungry L.A team going balls out last night that’s a playoff style win against a desperate team.
Well I am still nervous about going to OT. We haven’t done well for awhile going back to last year.
Our goaltending was good in the 4 preseason games so 8 out of 10 games it’s been strong. Goalies can feed off of each other and I’m feeling that with the tandem in place. Levi didn’t have older goalie teammates to mentor him in Buffalo. It’s like the older aces Scherzer-Berrios-Beiber talking pitching with a young future ace in Yesavage all day everyday the confidence rubs off. Yesavage will be dominant next year especially with a new pitch. Levi is going to be one hell of a pickup for the next decade.
Not sure the numbers can be trusted yet, first two games had massive goal numbers that aren’t realistic in any kind of extrapolation and the numbers look brilliant from the Kraken game forward.
if these guys keep limiting chances and helping the goalie, any shot disparity won’t really matter.
I am happy with the start, and I think some of the possession stats that are a cause for concern may have a lot to do with how much time this team is spending with the lead.
My concern is whether the coach will correctly identify the proper bottom six. I’m not seeing it with Formmenton, I don’t think Jones is the solution right now, but is Michaels really ready for the role he’s being put in? I have been seeing Howard and Frederic good, but they seem like they might get bounced out of the lineup. Maybe I have the wrong players identified as the ones that should stay in, but there are a lot of forwards on this roster if they get healthy, but identifying the right ones for the right roles is concerning to me. Right now I’m seeing odd choices with the depth chart. Hopefully they figure it out without losing someone on waivers.
Why did the Oilers win last night? According to my 10-year-old son, the Kings forwards are a little bit mid at shooting.
I didn’t look at the heat map, but there seemed to be plenty of distant shots from forwards upon entry into the zone. I thought that was unusual.
Old habits die hard, I guess?
Also, Levi’s glove hand is quicker than previous Oiler ‘tenders.
That was my impression as well, though it doesn’t show up as much in the heat map as in the SJ game.
I had the same thought as your son – the Kings lack finishing ability. They kept firing high and wide and off posts.
For Devon Levi he was verrryyy unlucky in the Vancouver game and very lucky this past game. His .903 is about right.
Levi played confidently, coming out of his net to challenge shooters and forcing them to make perfect shots. Against better finishers he might’ve been roasted.
The second two periods were a bit of a half hearted affair which is why we call a three goal lead “the most dangerous lead in hockey”. If we are going to take anything good from it, it’s that the goaltending and defense hung on to win the game as opposed to the debacle of the furst two games when they went up.
Unbelievable start to the year.
I don’t think it’s worth fussing about the fancies until the team gets bodies back.
McD, Drai, and Bouch on the same team should be illegal.
Three all time offensive players and future Hall of Famers (two locks and one reasonable possibility – Bouchard could get 1000 points…..).
Now, if only Drai could get his game going. To my eyes, he’s struggled – yes, struggled to, what, 11 points in 6 games…..?
Drai is so funny that way. His play can be very poor sometimes but he still manages to collect points and outscored any mistakes.
The fancies are also a bit skewed as they had some big leads in the 3 road games
I think they shifted down after the quick 3-0 start. Despite the shot clock the Kings never felt in control of this game. They don’t seem to enjoy embarassing weaker teams. There were a few shifts where the top line flexed to show they could – but didn’t seem to feel the need to play full out after the first 10 minutes. Will be really interesting to see them against some tougher competition in the weeks ahead.
Was surprised to see the stats on Hallander – saw him good.
Kinda sad after another big division win that the majority of the comments are doom and gloom with some more doom.
McDavid nearly 3 points a game
Bouchard playing out of his mind
Podzgoalsman filling nets
11 out of 12 points against their own division
Levi looking like he may just be that guy
Michaels emerging
Frederic rebounding
Best goal differential in the division
Undefeated with Emberson shoring up the 3rd pair
Dickinson only being back for a couple of games
Missing an entire top 6 line
Wingers as centers
Ekholm reverse aging
Oilers playing mature hockey
Avoiding the late game tire fire
Heart not pounding watching a collapse
This is their best start since I was able to defeat the diaper, I’m going to be a fan and enjoy the hell out of it.
Try to have some fun folks! PDO dont know you, doesn’t know McDavid, and cant even make a sandwich.
Couldn’t agree more. It seems even when the Oilers are on a tear(especially McDraiPodzChard) their are some who must poke holes
I respectfully disagree. It’s Podzilla filling nets!
Ah, LT, that line always goes hard. Never stop.
DeBrincat off the market – lucky he won’t be joining a rival club in the West.
With the cap going up high-end / elite talent will be less likely to move. A Howard-for-veteran winger swap that was plausible a year ago is unlikely now.
Develop and play your own talent. Jared McCann will be the next to sign an extension.
Isaac Howard IS the middle-six winger you’re looking for.
I’d like to apologize to Mr Murphy.
I was not in favour of his signing… I was wrong.
Murphy makes many subtle passes under pressure in the dzone that allow for the next play to be a clean zone exit with possession.
I had him pegged as an of the glass and out, give up possession sort of player.
imo he’s just a solid reliable player. You’re not worried to much about mistakes when he is on the ice. He isn’t the best 2nd pairing D man out there but he’s safe and sometimes, that’s all you want him to be.
Also not afraid to get physical in front of the net.
Psst… did our 24 year old goalie steal a game? Asking for a friend.
Helle-who?
Levi looked great last night, I can’t take any credit for picking Levi himself, but I’ve been like a broken record here for years going on about wanting to find goalies that are under 30, cheap to acquire, and reasonable cap hits rather than those Campbell-like contracts. With goalies you want to maximize the under 30 years, not the rover 30 ones.
Last night was the game you would expect missing the entire 2nd line. Lucky to have 97 & Levi to steal them a win.
Hopefully Hyman is healthy tomorrow & hope Savoie comes back flying
I think they could have scored three goals in each period if they wanted to embarrass the Kings.
Getting some of the regulars back pushes guys down the lineup, effectively upgrading all the lines. Although I wouldn’t mind seeing Owen Tippett in an Oilers uniform by Christmas!
I agree. In addition to players slotting better once some of the injured come back, if the commitment to team D sticks, the lines will see a boost as well (far fewer tire fires in their own end and an ability to get back on the offence quicker… presumably).
I’ve also been wondering about Tippett becoming available if the Flyers continue to underperform. (I’ve also wondered if the underperformance is more to do with Vladar and his big year being an anomaly that is being corrected, but that’s a post for a Flyers forum).
I’ve never been one to dance the hockey DBs. What does 12-2 vs. 3-0 look like when expressed as points per 60? The first number will of course be bigger given that Bouch spends the majority of his ice time with McD, but what is the actual production value for those minutes away relative to those minutes with?
Bouchard w McDavid is 9.4 gf/1.57 ga per 60 in 76 min
Bouchard without McDavid is 5.63 gf/60 in 32 min
Holy shinto
Thanks.
Teeny samples be cray.
A high end forward doesn’t hurt, but the chances of that player being a solo play driving machine are near zero. They have to do something about their shots totals. They are 24th in Shots/GP at 25, giving up 26 SA/GP
Their tactics are limiting their attack too much, of course the elites still produce, but even they got outshot handily. Most of the players rely on the system in place to create attack and produce. It’s critical they get it right, we have seen how relying on individuals to make big plays isn’t a recipe for success in the toughest moments
The shot totals won’t work in the long run, and while they limited a weaker offensive team (LA is 31st in goals for) to low HDCF, they were on their defensive heals most of that game. We know that will not work out well in the end
I hope the coaches are focusing on them generating more attack, tweak the system or coach up the players. This team cannot pretend to be the Cup winning Devils, they need to be very dangerous and also responsible to see their goal. Cup teams usually dominate at both ends of the ice, and have top end special teams. But as the coach has said, they are just starting out, and there’s lots of work to do
I think when the attack players arrive back in the line up, such as Hyman, there will be more shorts. 78 games to go. Long road ahead.
For sure. I’m also thinking about the regular players, that they need something from
With the return of Nuge and Hyman (then Savoie), the rest of the team should slot better, which should then correct the shot shares because the bottom 6 will be playing against players more comparable to them rather than one full line higher… or something like that. The team also needs to get more reps with the stronger team D approach in order to learn effective counterattack opportunities.
I am not going to read too much into the numbers just yet, not until we see a couple of those those three guys return to the lineup and shift everyone else back into their appropriate roles/usage.
Also something to be said, that even though the LAK are not world burners by any means, but this was a team that was on home ice and trying to get their first win of the season. After going down 3-0, I would have been stunned if they hadn’t pushed as hard as they did.
Would have been ideal for the Oilers to prevent a bit more chances, but I think they went into their shell, protected the lead, didn’t break down to cause 5 alarm chances, and got the win at the end of a road trip. I have a feeling that the Oilers of the last couple of years, faced with that type of counter pressure, would have given up a bit more, and we would have been looking at a 5-4 OT game. Happy and relived it didn’t go that way.
Exactly right LT. It’s been a blast to watch and cheer for, but we need to be realistic. Let’s see what the next 2 games bring.
This team needs a legitimate second line. I’m not convinced Savoie-RNH-Hyman is good enough. Time will tell.
— I remember last year realizing that DSF didn’t understand hockey when he was touting Vancouver and pointed to their PDO at 105 as proof early of exceptional coaching. (Oilers now 107)
— Except for all the wins this team is kind of what many thought : an awesome first line and a bunch of players who aren’t NHLers.
— After shaky start Levi has been a “surprise”
— Granted this team being full of non NHLers was because of the injuries at start of season
— Just win baby !!!
Tell me what players on the roster aren’t NHL quality. Maybe Shak? No team is loaded up because of the cap. It’s coaching and team play that make some teams seem to have better players. If they actually do it doesn’t last long because of the cap. Florida is supposed to have the deepest forward group, are 3-2-2. Their alleged depth isn’t covering two top 9 F out. Yes one is Barkov, but isn’t the depth supposed to offset that?
I wonder if DSF is okay… haven’t heard from him in a while.
Maybe the bridge collapsed.
I would say he’s in Siberia with shovel in hand.
He’s either waiting for the Oilers first regulation loss or his family have given him an intervention and taken his internet away.
Of course it is not good enough.
Delusions should end.
Savoie is not core piece. Why would anyone think so?
He was a total non-entity in last year’s playoffs.
Vancouver and Winnipeg beckon to offer up quality. The sooner the better.
McDavid was worse than a non-entity in last year’s playoffs, he was a liability.
Perhaps the 6 game sample size of a rookie is not conclusive.
They are currently winning with a 2nd line of Hallander/Dickinson/Kapanen and won at least one game with Colton Dach at 2C.
I mean, the substantial upgrade of the three players will be start (and it also strengthens the bottom six materially).
The bottom 9 all struggled last night (as did the top line to some extent in the last 40) but this game was never in question after the Oilers dominated and grabbed a multi-goal lead.
I’m not saying the struggles and being outplayed should be ignored or there shouldn’t be some level of concern but the game state did play a big role.
That third line has been getting caved all year but should be much better as a fourth line. Hurry back Nuge as Dickinson as 2C is quite putrid.
For me, I thought the fourth line was the best of the bunch and the middle two lines were bad.
Peronally, I take out any of the middle six wingers for Hyman last game and leave the fourth line intact.
Hallander, Kap, Formenton and Joseph can all take a night off. Hallander was invisible last night and does not PK.
With all of that noted, 5 regulation wins on a row and the best points percentage in the league with a bullet
The plan was Howard, Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman.
One can get there in two stages.
Hyman comes in for Frederic, when he is ready. Howard, Samanski, Hyman.
And then Nugent-Hopkins comes in for Samanski, when he is ready. Howard, Nuge, Hyman.
Least disruptive to the current lineup, and one can manage Nuge and Hyman’s minutes when they come back.
At this point, RNH is nothing more than a power play specialist.
That needs to hit the net when teams overplay Connor-Leon-Bouchard
I’m going to make a prediction that RNH will be a strong contributor at 5-on-5 because he won’t have to be the defensive conscience of any line he is on. If the Oilers continue the commitment to better team D, I expect RNH will shoulder less of the load and will be able to generate more offence in 5-on-5 situations.
I would not take Frederic out. I understand he isn’t on special teams but he’s playing well (not as visible last night but the entire “bottom 9” was fairly invisible last night).
Least disruptive would be to sit Hallander (or even Kap) for a game and stick Hyman on the 2nd line. Hallander is also not on special teams.
I think we probably know that its Howard coming out (unless coach does something silly like put Frederic or Hallander at center and take out Samanski).
Frederic is the next worst after Jones. He deceptively only looks decent because Howard and Samanski are “skilled” 4th liners, which masks Frederic’s general ineptitude, because all he has to do is hang around the opposing net while the other two do all the work.
Taking Howard out before Frederic would be silly.
Hyman is a “super duper version” of Frederic, and would give Howard an actually good player who can amplify the good work that Howard is doing.
The Oilers know what Frederic is, a barely functional #12F at best. They have to find out if Howard and Samanski can actually help. The good start gives they the opportunity.
Hyman with Howard and Samanski is the logical next step.
I like Frederic’s game this year.
He’s very responsible, makes good plays in the neutral zone, hits d-men and has a positive goal share.
I wouldn’t take any of the fourth line out for next game – Hallander is at the top of my list, Kap is close behind as he’s the worst defensive forward on the team.
Maybe Bowman will eventually learn that acquiring replacement-level players and stockpiling them, unlike Settlers of Catan, will not let you trade for a resource you actually need.
I suppose Bowman just needs to partner with another GM that trades useful players for broken bits and bobs. The NHL must be full of them.
Mammoth will be an interesting test for this team tomorrow. Feels like a trap game coming off a successful Cali road trip and also because I will be attending.
LT: Since your alter ego brought it up, curious, do you do your monthly predictions for all subsequent months during pre-season also, or will you do November near the end of October with the benefit of having seen this months play?
I do them just before the start of each month. The most difficult month is always the first one, because we don’t know the quality of the opponent and because the Oilers always have a goalie issue. Sometimes it gets solved (Skinner as a rookie, Levi now), sometimes not.
Can you finally concede that Howard contributes close to nothing?
And if he has any utility it is to trade for actual quality?
The rest , as in Samanski, Howard, Frederic, Joseph, Jones, etc do not even bring that.
I can’t concede Howard contributes next to nothing, because it is untrue. Otherwise, I’d gladly join you.
Check in at the 20 games mark to see if he has contributed anything in terms of scoring.
In 6 games, Isaac Howard has 2 assists and 2 points so already he has contributed something, which is anything in terms of scoring.
Matt Savoie had zero points at 5 on 5 through 17 games and ended up near 20 goals.
Granted it is a very small sample size, but nhl.com has Howard sitting at 2.53 P/60 at 5-on-5 for the season, which puts him 4th on the team and 98th in the entire NHL. This is considered the production of a top-line star or high end forward.
On the flip side of this data, is that the NHL leader in the stat is Kailer Yamamoto at 7.57. However, he has only played 2 games this season. So, the “real” leader is Nathan MacKinnon at 7.52. Both are highly likely unsustainable (MacKinnon was at 3.42 last season). I suspect Howard will find his way and be a productive player for the Oilers.
Just want to note the 6.08 P/60 for Bouchard through six games (4th in the NHL discounting the players with 1 game) and 1st for d-men (Cale Maker 2nd at 4.66).
There was an opinion this off season that it would be great if McDavid produced around 100 points but committee to a stronger 2-way game.
Some pushed back hard suggesting that there is no reason for his production to decrease for playing more compete game and it could even increase.
Premise being a stronger 2-way game, individually and as a team, will lead to less chasing games and fatigue, more luck possession, more offence crated off of turnovers, more offence crated as the other team has to push to create, etc.
I believe the latter is in full effect.
The aging Steve Yzerman reference.
I’ll take the win and am looking forward to some more injured players returning to the lineup. I have been especially impressed with Levi, great start to his Oilers tenure.
Nice to have a goaler that can actually stop high glove side shots.
I do wish this team kept some of their draft picks over the years so we had something to trade as this team is gonna need a high end forward or two at the trade deadline
— it’s good to pump the breaks while admiring the super nova
— Points are better than no points and winning low scoring games is great
— untill there as a 2nd line that can score McDraiBouch won’t win a Cup alone
— Best teams will shut that down when it matters
— PDO will go from 107 to a hundo. sH% won’t be above 12% by end of season. McDraiBouch will regress to something still really exceptional
— so yeah this has been awesome the wins against weaker teams and easy schedule with lots of breaks buys them time for reinforcements
— We just don’t have a Stanley cup hockey team right now though : but awesome start.
— I figured there was not an unreasonable path to Babs being gone by game 20. That’s clearly not happening.
It’s a process.
Oilers shooting % has been between 9.9 and 11.8 over the last 4 years. PDO has been around 100. If the goaltending is real, it won’t be 107 but it won’t be 100 either. They are missing an entire second line, though whether that exact group can score as a second line remains TBD.
Of course, but when you add two or three of Hyman, Nuge and Savoie to the lineup (plus Dach), this team can certainly have two lines that can score and a much stronger bottom six than currently.
Not to mention the potential for an in-season acquisition up front
The Oilers are going to have to find a style of play that works, with McDavid and Draisaiitl on separate lines. Because as we well-know, as teams get their defensive systems honed they can cork-up that line and the Oilers can be stopped.
If they are on two lines the Oilers are more effective against defensively-sound teams.
I think it makes sense to have them together early in the season. The Oilers can farm some points and deal with their injury problems. But by November they’ll need to get some experience being independent. By December hopefully the Oilers can play either style effectively.
Babcock has said repeatedly, including less than 12 hours ago, that “when he has more pieces”, the initial deployment plan, which includes them together and apart, depending on matchups and various things, will be implemented. He continues to opine the current 100% load up is, in his opinion, due to injuries and lack of options that he likes.
Of note, they were apart on game one, OTL, and together for 5 straight regulation wins.
Like most coaches, he probably won’t make any meaningful change until an L or two
Howard looks to be a player that will add offense to the top 6 when the split of the duo happens.
He’s all over the ice working hard with good touches that so far lead to nothing.
One bad cross ice pass high in the ozone last nite although.
Worst pass high in the o-zone was Drai, which led to a rush again, which was stymied and then Drai made a weak zone exit play and the goal against was scored and the game changed…..
With that said, yes, mistakes by Howard will “count more” than mistakes by Drai, as egregious as his back-to-back game changing blunders were last night.
I don’t know what Babcock plans for Howard – if Hyman plays on Thursday, and no-one that played last night is hurt, he likely comes out – even if I think it should be Hallander.
Separate McDrai? They are on a unprecedented tear. Only in Oil Country