Connor McDavid’x boxcars after six games (4-13-17) have him on a pace to shoot the moon, and the Oilers are enjoying high times in the Pacific this month. Will it last?
Well, the template Todd McLellan arrived at was McDavid-Draisaitl and hope Cam Talbot stopped everything, and that gameplan got the team into the playoffs in 2017. Mike Babcock has McDavid-Draisaitl, and Devon Levi is doing a fine impersonation of Talbot 2016-17.
Babcock also has Evan Bouchard, Vasily Podkolzin and the three horseman of the infirmary in Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Matt Savoie. He’ll need more. Pretty sure.
- Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl 13:37, 4-9 shots, 2-1 goals, 27X
The top line struggled by the Corgis (36 percent) and lost the HDSC but we’re all seeing 200-feet of work from the Glimmer Twins and their trusty Russian fellow. The line is 10-1 goals, 8.99 Goals-60 in 66 five-on-five minutes. That’s generational. That’s historic. Doughty took a shot at McDavid last night, rode him into the boards a little. That’s going to happen, you want to limit the wear and tear and that’s the Babcock dilemma. Great start by this line, just ridiculous.
- Formenton-Michaels-Joseph 10:40, 2-5 shots, 23X
- Hallander-Dickinson-Kapanen 7:07, 1-5 shots, 24X
- Howard-Samanski-Frederic 5:04, 1-3 shots, 23X
These lines were not competitive last night. You can say it doesn’t matter, but it really does. You can say it’s score effects, but Trent Frederic had the only five-on-five high-danger chance for this group. The Los Angeles Kings are not the gold standard of goal suppression, so there’s work to do. Zach Hyman can’t get into the lineup fast enough and more is needed.
We need to be realistic about these men. The Formenton-Michaels-Joseph line is 50 percent goal share five-on-five, but 28 percent expected. Regression is going to hit hard, like Dick Pound at a drug-testing convention. I like Michaels, but this is not the righthanded center a championship team is looking for. Not yet, anyway.
The Samanski line has played 21 miinutes together, 67 percent goal share but 40 expected. All three lines need an upgrade, and I suspect Josh Samanski is in Bakersfield soon. I would keep him in Edmonton. McDavid-Nuge-Dickinson-Michaels is going to need some support.
- Ekholm-Bouchard 14:21, 3-10 shots, 2-1 goals, 29X
- Shea-Murphy 11:07, 3-7 shots, 30X
- Mukhamadullin-Emberson 8:37, 2-6 shots, 0 X
- Shea-Bouchard 3:06, 0-3 shots, 0X
- Devon Levi 39 of 40, .975
Evan Bouchard is up to 6-8-14 in six games, and he’s full value for the gaudy boxcars. A stunning offensive surge from an already brilliant player, his five-on-five goal share with the captain is 86 percent (12-2 goals). Without McDavid? Bouchard is 3-0 goals. Yeah.
Devon Levi had a great night, made some terrific stops (eight of eight HDSC, an average team last season delivered 12-12.5 HDSC-60 including all game states) and I think we can begin discussing the possibility he gets 30+ starts this season. He is 4-0-0 in four starts, .903SP and 2.76 GAA.
Babcock needs a team who can take advantage of an opponent getting eight HDSC shots. Last night, all-in, the Oilers had four. Nope. Not going to work.
QANDA
Well, that’s it then. END OF THE LINE FOR THE STREAK! Well, hold on here. The Oilers have been hammering the Sisters of Mercy Intramural Division of Remedial Hockey Teams.
Meaning? The road ahead is more difficult, so we’ll see some reg losses in the future. Here, let’s look at the ‘what to expect’ scoreboard for the month:
- At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
- On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1) Actual 3-0-0
- At home to: Mammoth (1-0)
- On the road to: Mammoth (0-0-1)
- At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2)
- On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 5-0-1, 11 points in six games
Gorgeous! Yes, and getting tougher in the days to come.
That’s not what you said at the beginning of the month. You’re such a dink. Actually, I predicted it, and the numbers above prove it. I had the Oilers going 4-1-1 through the first six, the team is 5-0-1. That’s pretty close for a beginning of the season projection.
You still have them winning most of the remaining games. No, no I don’t. My projection suggests 5-2-1 the rest of the month. I think that’s a fair estimate based on the quality of the Oilers and the opponents on the immediate schedule.
You can twist the numbers any way you want, you said this team was bound for glory! The predictions above are from pre-season. I didn’t even get a chance to factor in the Hyman and Nuge injuries fully. I think a 9-3-2 record after 14 games will be good enough to lead the division. I don’t think this team is complete.
Your monthly predictions are poor. They’ve been mostly solid, although McDavid injuries and the poor start that cost Woodcroft his job did plunge my projections into a state of hell.
Probably where you’re going. On the Lowdown today, we’ll be joined by Kevin McCurdy, who will talk to us about the road trip, the Mammoth to come and we’ll tee up the Friday Elks game that could land the city football club in first place as a division winner. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
A high end forward doesn’t hurt, but the chances of that player being a solo play driving machine are near zero. They have to do something about their shots totals. They are 24th in Shots/GP at 25, giving up 26 SA/GP
Their tactics are limiting their attack too much, of course the elites still produce, but even they got outshot handily. Most of the players rely on the system in place to create attack and produce. It’s critical they get it right, we have seen how relying on individuals to make big plays isn’t a recipe for success in the toughest moments
The shot totals won’t work in the long run, and while they limited a weaker offensive team (LA is 31st in goals for) to low HDCF, they were on their defensive heals most of that game. We know that will not work out well in the end
I hope the coaches are focusing on them generating more attack, tweak the system or coach up the players. This team cannot pretend to be the Cup winning Devils, they need to be very dangerous and also responsible to see their goal. Cup teams usually dominate at both ends of the ice, and have top end special teams. But as the coach has said, they are just starting out, and there’s lots of work to do
I am not going to read too much into the numbers just yet, not until we see a couple of those those three guys return to the lineup and shift everyone else back into their appropriate roles/usage.
Also something to be said, that even though the LAK are not world burners by any means, but this was a team that was on home ice and trying to get their first win of the season. After going down 3-0, I would have been stunned if they hadn’t pushed as hard as they did.
Would have been ideal for the Oilers to prevent a bit more chances, but I think they went into their shell, protected the lead, didn’t break down to cause 5 alarm chances, and got the win at the end of a road trip. I have a feeling that the Oilers of the last couple of years, faced with that type of counter pressure, would have given up a bit more, and we would have been looking at a 5-4 OT game. Happy and relived it didn’t go that way.
Exactly right LT. It’s been a blast to watch and cheer for, but we need to be realistic. Let’s see what the next 2 games bring.
This team needs a legitimate second line. I’m not convinced Savoie-RNH-Hyman is good enough. Time will tell.
— I remember last year realizing that DSF didn’t understand hockey when he was touting Vancouver and pointed to their PDO at 105 as proof early of exceptional coaching. (Oilers now 107)
— Except for all the wins this team is kind of what many thought : an awesome first line and a bunch of players who aren’t NHLers.
— After shaky start Levi has been a “surprise”
— Granted this team being full of non NHLers was because of the injuries at start of season
— Just win baby !!!
The bottom 9 all struggled last night (as did the top line to some extent in the last 40) but this game was never in question after the Oilers dominated and grabbed a multi-goal lead.
I’m not saying the struggles and being outplayed should be ignored or there shouldn’t be some level of concern but the game state did play a big role.
That third line has been getting caved all year but should be much better as a fourth line. Hurry back Nuge as Dickinson as 2C is quite putrid.
For me, I thought the fourth line was the best of the bunch and the middle two lines were bad.
Peronally, I take out any of the middle six wingers for Hyman last game and leave the fourth line intact.
Hallander, Kap, Formenton and Joseph can all take a night off. Hallander was invisible last night and does not PK.
With all of that noted, 5 regulation wins on a row and the best points percentage in the league with a bullet
The plan was Howard, Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman.
One can get there in two stages.
Hyman comes in for Frederic, when he is ready. Howard, Samanski, Hyman.
And then Nugent-Hopkins comes in for Samanski, when he is ready. Howard, Nuge, Hyman.
Least disruptive to the current lineup, and one can manage Nuge and Hyman’s minutes when they come back.
Maybe Bowman will eventually learn that acquiring replacement-level players and stockpiling them, unlike Settlers of Catan, will not let you trade for a resource you actually need.
I suppose Bowman just needs to partner with another GM that trades useful players for broken bits and bobs. The NHL must be full of them.
Mammoth will be an interesting test for this team tomorrow. Feels like a trap game coming off a successful Cali road trip and also because I will be attending.
LT: Since your alter ego brought it up, curious, do you do your monthly predictions for all subsequent months during pre-season also, or will you do November near the end of October with the benefit of having seen this months play?
I do them just before the start of each month. The most difficult month is always the first one, because we don’t know the quality of the opponent and because the Oilers always have a goalie issue. Sometimes it gets solved (Skinner as a rookie, Levi now), sometimes not.
Can you finally concede that Howard contributes close to nothing?
And if he has any utility it is to trade for actual quality?
The rest , as in Samanski, Howard, Frederic, Joseph, Jones, etc do not even bring that.
I can’t concede Howard contributes next to nothing, because it is untrue. Otherwise, I’d gladly join you.
There was an opinion this off season that it would be great if McDavid produced around 100 points but committee to a stronger 2-way game.
Some pushed back hard suggesting that there is no reason for his production to decrease for playing more compete game and it could even increase.
Premise being a stronger 2-way game, individually and as a team, will lead to less chasing games and fatigue, more luck possession, more offence crated off of turnovers, more offence crated as the other team has to push to create, etc.
I believe the latter is in full effect.
I’ll take the win and am looking forward to some more injured players returning to the lineup. I have been especially impressed with Levi, great start to his Oilers tenure.
Nice to have a goaler that can actually stop high glove side shots.
I do wish this team kept some of their draft picks over the years so we had something to trade as this team is gonna need a high end forward or two at the trade deadline
— it’s good to pump the breaks while admiring the super nova
— Points are better than no points and winning low scoring games is great
— untill there as a 2nd line that can score McDraiBouch won’t win a Cup alone
— Best teams will shut that down when it matters
— PDO will go from 107 to a hundo. sH% won’t be above 12% by end of season. McDraiBouch will regress to something still really exceptional
— so yeah this has been awesome the wins against weaker teams and easy schedule with lots of breaks buys them time for reinforcements
— We just don’t have a Stanley cup hockey team right now though : but awesome start.
— I figured there was not an unreasonable path to Babs being gone by game 20. That’s clearly not happening.
The Oilers are going to have to find a style of play that works, with McDavid and Draisaiitl on separate lines. Because as we well-know, as teams get their defensive systems honed they can cork-up that line and the Oilers can be stopped.
If they are on two lines the Oilers are more effective against defensively-sound teams.
I think it makes sense to have them together early in the season. The Oilers can farm some points and deal with their injury problems. But by November they’ll need to get some experience being independent. By December hopefully the Oilers can play either style effectively.
Babcock has said repeatedly, including less than 12 hours ago, that “when he has more pieces”, the initial deployment plan, which includes them together and apart, depending on matchups and various things, will be implemented. He continues to opine the current 100% load up is, in his opinion, due to injuries and lack of options that he likes.
Of note, they were apart on game one, OTL, and together for 5 straight regulation wins.
Like most coaches, he probably won’t make any meaningful change until an L or two