Benson

For a long time after he was drafted, Tyler Benson answered a lot of questions about his health. In his draft season, he missed 42 games (playing in 30), and draft +1 he played 33 of 72.

It reached a point where Benson expressed frustration, telling Steve Ewen of the Vancouver Province “I’m just worried about trying to get back to healthy and back on the ice with my team.”

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions until Sept. 19 here.

  • New Lowetide: RE 19-20: How can the Oilers’ bottom six close the gap in goal differential?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson address respective highs and lows as Oilers rookie camp begins
  • New Jonathan Willis: Riley Sheahan is a prudent signing by the Oilers in more ways than one
  • New Jonathan Willis: Did Milan Lucic take a shot at Connor McDavid’s leadership?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With Evan Bouchard as the headliner, here are the players to watch at Oilers rookie camp
  • Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
  • Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
  • Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

BENSON

Benson’s AHL debut was a Godsend for an Oilers organization that badly needs some of its prospect forwards to cash. We’ve done this exercise before, but here are the numbers for picks 31-39 from the 2016 draft, with Alex DeBrincat drafted last and long gone:

DeBrincat will never be caught, he’ll pass 100 NHL goals this season. Benson and Kyrou are probably the two best players on the list after him, although injuries to names like Korshkov and Laberge have to be considered. The big number for Benson is games played. He didn’t miss even one. I don’t know if he makes the team out of camp but if Benson continues to deliver at a point-per-game in Bakersfield, it won’t be long.

The Oilers need a puck mover but not at $4.83 million and Faulk has his own issues. Puck IQ’s elite numbers are good not great and he badly trails the rest of the Hurricanes defenders. Suspect he’ll be dealt, don’t think it’s Edmonton.

TONIGHT’S GAME

I know it’s rookies and an exhibition but it’s hockey and some of the names who are likely to play may spend time in the NHL in the season to come. If you’re going to the game, please post a report for the group.

KYLE BRODZIAK

One of the final posts I wrote at hfboards was about Kyle Brodziak and Marc Pouliot. I ran their numbers and asked if Brodziak might have the better career? Brodziak was a year older but in 2003-04 their numbers in junior were similar and MP was already having injury issues:

Marc Pouliot (age 18) 42, 25-33-58 (1.38)

Kyle Brodziak (age 19) 70, 39-54-93 (1.33)

Pouliot stopped short of 200 NHL games but Brodziak kept on rolling. It looks like his final total will be 917 regular season games. Brodziak, Shawn Horcoff and Jason Chimera represent outstanding value from a bygone era of Oilers later round drafting. Edmonton could use that kind of drafting now.

Sail on, Fort Saskatchewan Ranger. You met all expectations and then spent a decade exceeding them in the best league in the world. We won’t forget you.

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156 Responses to "Benson"

  1. stevebergeron97 says:

    I will be at the game tonight!!

  2. Munny says:

    Was totally expecting a picture of Robert Guillaume, lol…

  3. Louis Levasseur says:

    Sorry to go off topic, but just read Mark Spector’s article on Sportsnet. He takes a lot of abuse from other markets’ fans, but I find his writing actually quite balanced. In any event, he makes a comment about the Lucic trade and how it was a trade that needed to be done because a change was needed in the dressing room. (I’m paraphrasing).

    We all hear the stories and rumours about off ice issues surrounding the team (ex. Hall, Comrie, Nurse, etc). Unless we are in the room, we have no idea if they are true. I don’t believe most of them, but what was he getting at with the Lucic comment? I always understood Lucic to be a great team guy and a leader.

    I ask the question on this blog, rather than Sportsnet, because I find most of the discussion here relatively mature and not just a bunch of trolls bantering back and forth like 12 years olds playing the “I know you are, but what am I?” game.

  4. Munny says:

    Epic thread yesterday. Reminiscent of the old days, without Mudcrutch having to defend the value of analytics to some newcomer… Thanks, LT, as always, for this forum.

  5. Munny says:

    More on Brodz being drafted:

    Jim Matheson‏ @NHLbyMatty · 16h16 hours ago

    I know lots of Oiler fans were down on Brodziak last year but this was the late, great scout Lorne Davis’s pet project, to get Edm to draft this junior. They did in round 7. 900 games for Brodziak. That’s an accomplishment

  6. Side says:

    Louis Levasseur,

    From what I have gathered (which may not be true in the slightest), is that Lucic seems to be a good complimentary leader when he is supporting existing leadership (Chara in Boston for example), and his time with the Oilers appears to be the first time he has had to be the guy people looked up to to be a leader. Seems like coupled with the fact that he has kids and is older, he didn’t seem to do or want to do the off ice bonding stuff with the group (I think he referenced not going go-carting or something with McDavid) and because he played very poorly in Edmonton, it was likely hard for him to fill the leadership role well and his poor performance probably got into his head about it more than it would have if he wasn’t depended on so much to be a leader.

    When he got traded I believe he touched on some of this saying that he looks forward to joining a team with mature leadership (Gio) and looks forward to finding his game again under a more secondary role with less pressure on him.

    Seems like he became Ference 2.0. Brought in to be a leader, is a great guy, finds the pressure to be too much, can’t connect with the younger talent, gets majorly outplayed by said talent and loses his voice in the locker room.

    That’s just my take on it.

  7. Jordan says:

    If Tyler spent the summer working on skating, and comes to camp with better wheels, I don’t see how he doesn’t make the team. I want him in Bakersfield, but unless Nygard is Hagelin 2.0, I would be very surprised if Benson isn’t 2LW for game 1.

    What would Faulk cost?

    Could we send Jesse to Carolina for him and a pick (maybe a conditional in Faulk doesn’t re-sign, for taking on the salary?

    Would Russell waive to go to Winnipeg? Could they make that trade without sending dollars back?

    Is Faulk a safer bet at 2RD than Persson?
    Is that safety worth 4M beans?

    Me like hockey. Me like hockey! ME LIKE HOCKEY!!

  8. hunter1909 says:

    IT’S BACK!!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON FREE TO ENTER + PLAY

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

  9. Lowetide says:

    Munny:
    Epic thread yesterday.Reminiscent of the old days, without Mudcrutch having to defend the value of analytics to some newcomer…Thanks, LT, as always, for this forum.

    Thanks back. The forum needs people with opinions or it’s just a black piece of foolscap. 🙂

  10. Louis Levasseur says:

    Side,

    Thanks. That seems right. Your comparison to Ference is great.

  11. McNuge93 says:

    I have been looking in no great detail at the current cap situations. I think some bargains will be had by teams with cap space. Also think some RFAs will be forced to take less dollars than they expected at maybe a shorter term because teams simply do not have available cap. Also think there is a chance of an opportunistic offer sheet once the season starts. Below is a little rundown on the cap situation. I have not dived deeply into each team so you will find plenty of holes in my arguments.

    Oilers are 13th on the list on Cap Friendly and we know how tight their cap situation is. Teams below them on the list include Vancouver, Boston, Tampa, Winnipeg and Calgary who have significanr RFAs to sign, so that’s 18 teams with little or no space.
    There’s another 5 teams with less than $5 mil in space so that’s 23 teams.There’s another 3 teams (Columbus, Philly, Colorado) who have RFAs to sign but seem to have more than enough cap, however they may be pre-occupied with signing those guys.
    Ottawa has some space but their owner may not want to spend. New Jersey has space but may only take on a one year contract as they need to keep room to sign Hall next year.
    Of the teams left and who could take advantage of the current cap problems and pick up bargains I could see Anaheim ($8 mil), LA (almost $7 mil), Detroit ($4 mil but Zetterberg IR) Philly (only 19 on roster and ambitious), and maybe Columbus in the market.
    Interesting that some teams actually appear to be right at or above the cap or will be above the cap when their RFAs are signed.
    Also interesting to see Arizona near the top of the list. You would have thought they would be near the bottom.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    YES – A Oilers hockey game to watch tonight – just the prospects but still – so exiting.

    Hoping that Maksimov gets the 1RW spot with Benson and Marody!

  13. leadfarmer says:

    Lead farmer:

    Re my work.

    You claim to have been here since 2006.
    Then you would have read my work.
    Descriptions of physical mechanisms.

    HD area ( rickisbox) by shot success by location.
    HD: LD ratio.
    The argument of continued high shooting%
    It’s corelation to HD penetration.
    HD shot success map.
    Quality HD dmen.

    The second phase of Goal dif.
    Quality
    Open closed corsi
    Open shots being only scorable shot.
    All this is 8-12 yr old.

    If it I do present.
    It will be presented in a simple chart, Video based series of my theories as a guest writer for post media.
    In partnership with the web site builder friend of my wife’s.
    Edited with my wife’s voice
    Cause I am a prick when it comes to discussing my theories.

    I will not Gamble.
    I had a 2 week suspension near the end of grade 8 for running a Black jack ring.

    I do not predict (guess)
    You can structure a team for success.
    It can be the deepest in a conference.
    But 2 of the last 3 seasons the best structured team had unique ref calls punt them from playoffs.
    16/17 EDM 2 non calls on clear goalie interference.
    18/19 VGK A 5 min major in game 7.

    Refs have the critical influence that can affect PT outcomes in a season.
    There is no science to that!

    ***********************************
    Now that is a cop out worthy of a bear. There is no gambling in Hunters challenge. No one is asking you to wager anything. The issue of you not putting out a estimate points for the team this year is that if they dont make the playoffs you will blame everybody from lack of 3-2 systems to coaching to social justice warriors. And if they miraculously do make the playoffs you will just claim you knew they would all along without having the fortitude to stand to your convictions ahead of time. Because your “successes” are based on cherry picked hindsight and you very rarely make a stand on a current or future decision. Only recent one I can think of is the huge success of Chia in getting a good defender in Manning.
    Now Ive noticed you started adding passing into your defensemen needs recently. For someone that claims people are plagiarizing his work you really need to give the person you got that idea from credit. Ricky defensemen are know for their up the boards and out and horrible passing, Russell, Fayne, etc So this is a very new addition to the Ricki theories and clearly influenced by an outside mind.
    I never claimed to have started coming here in 2006.
    I challenge you to post a link of you saying your theory on here in 2006. Just one post. Because a bear simply doesnt show up on a message board and go unnoticed for a decade.
    Because ive been here since fall of 2004

  14. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    YES – A Oilers hockey game to watch tonight – just the prospects but still – so exiting.

    Hoping that Maksimov gets the 1RW spot with Benson and Marody!

    Who are you looking forward to watching the most?

  15. Munny says:

    I have to step out for the day, so one last thing before I depart…

    GOOOOO BIANCA!!!!

  16. stevebergeron97 says:

    Very excited to see Bouchard tonight. He was not in the line up last year.. Also my first chance to see Lavoie live. Hopefully he can carry some of that playoff magic into tonight’s game. Dube seems to be the only high end prospect playing tonight for the Flames, plus the newly drafted Pelletier. Really hoping to see some PP units made up of Benson, Marody, Maksimov, Lavoie and Bouchard. AND SAMORUKOV!! Can’t forget that stud.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its too bad for Kyle that he goes out like this – I fine career for a good professional.

    This is also really disappointing for the Oilers cap situation as it adds $1.075M to our cap this year.

    If Brodz had been assigned to the AHL, it would have saved $1.075M on the cap and left a nominal cap hit of $75K.

    Now, his entire $1.15M cap hit stays and, unless something changes markedly, they won’t be close enough to the cap to receive any LTIR cushion.

    Even if they were close enough to receive an LTIR cushion – using the cushion is highly limiting for in-season acquisitions and even daily/weekly cap management.

  18. Jethro Tull says:

    I’m confused. Has Brodziak retired? Or is it his contract is up when the LTIR is done?

  19. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its too bad for Kyle that he goes out like this – I fine career for a good professional.

    This is also really disappointing for the Oilers cap situation as it adds $1.075M to our cap this year.

    If Brodz had been assigned to the AHL, it would have saved $1.075M on the cap and left a nominal cap hit of $75K.

    Now, his entire $1.15M cap hit stays and, unless something changes markedly, they won’t be close enough to the cap to receive any LTIR cushion.

    Even if they were close enough to receive an LTIR cushion – using the cushion is highly limiting for in-season acquisitions and even daily/weekly cap management.

    Meh. They can run with 22 men if that’s an issue, lots of teams have these problems. The Eric Gryba dead money is FAR more irritating.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    I’m confused. Has Brodziak retired? Or is it his contract is up when the LTIR is done?

    He’s UFA next summer. It’s possible he sits out a year and returns, but that seems a distant bell.

  21. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its too bad for Kyle that he goes out like this – I fine career for a good professional.

    This is also really disappointing for the Oilers cap situation as it adds $1.075M to our cap this year.

    If Brodz had been assigned to the AHL, it would have saved $1.075M on the cap and left a nominal cap hit of $75K.

    Now, his entire $1.15M cap hit stays and, unless something changes markedly, they won’t be close enough to the cap to receive any LTIR cushion.

    Even if they were close enough to receive an LTIR cushion – using the cushion is highly limiting for in-season acquisitions and even daily/weekly cap management.

    As yesterday, I believe you cannot assign injured players.

    So let’s examine the LTIR decision. It says in of itself that Brodziak was expected to play this year.

    Assigning him to the AHL before the medical would suggest we had some kind of inside knowledge of a long term injury.

    It would have seemed something was amiss if he was randomly assigned to the AHL as he was a first team regular.

    Things seem to have happened in the proper order.

    Assigning a player for no apparent reason, but knowing he was done even before a medical examination in order to gain cap relief is high shenanigans indeed.

  22. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: He’s UFA next summer. It’s possible he sits out a year and returns, but that seems a distant bell.

    Yeah you bet. But maybe he return to the bottom six depth on a value contract. Can’t have enough of those guys.😛

  23. Shane says:

    Jethro Tull,

    I may be wrong but I believe the he would have to pass a physical before being assigned to the AHL.
    Sounds like he won’t be able to pass so an assignment to the Bake would have been high shenanigans indeed.

  24. Offside says:

    Is the game on Sportsnet or do I have to livestream?

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    Isn’t the best predictor of production, “likely linemates”?

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    If Tyler spent the summer working on skating, and comes to camp with better wheels, I don’t see how he doesn’t make the team.I want him in Bakersfield, but unless Nygard is Hagelin 2.0, I would be very surprised if Benson isn’t 2LW for game 1.

    What would Faulk cost?

    Could we send Jesse to Carolina for him and a pick (maybe a conditional in Faulk doesn’t re-sign, for taking on the salary?

    Would Russell waive to go to Winnipeg?Could they make that trade without sending dollars back?

    Is Faulk a safer bet at 2RD than Persson?
    Is that safety worth 4M beans?

    Me like hockey.Me like hockey!ME LIKE HOCKEY!!

    You asked a good NTC question with Russell but neglected to ask the same with Faulk – from previous accounts, Edmonton is firmly on his no trade list.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side: Who are you looking forward to watching the most?

    For tonight?

    Maksimov, Samorukov

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull:
    I’m confused. Has Brodziak retired? Or is it his contract is up when the LTIR is done?

    He has not retired – if he did. His cap hit goes away.

    He will be on IR or LTIR and, once he’s done the year, his contract will be up – then we will likely retire.

  29. teddyturnbuckle says:

    LT or anyone, with Brodziak on LTIR does he count as one of the 50 allowed pro contracts?

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Meh. They can run with 22 men if that’s an issue, lots of teams have these problems. The Eric Gryba dead money is FAR more irritating.

    That was more irritating as there was no hockey reason for it but, to me, this is more material – its $1.075M of extra cap hit.

    Yup, they could run with 22 – as I said, in-season cap management is going to be an issue.

    Far from ideal

  31. Georgexs says:

    Benson is a 2nd round pick.

    There have been 77 forwards picked in the 2nd round who have debuted in the NHL from 13-14 to 18-19.

    DeBrincat and Aho stand apart. Both debuted in their draft+2, both played the full 82 games, both scored at a top 6F rate. (DeBrincat – 52, Aho – 49).

    This means just 2 out of 77 2nd round debuts produced clear top 6F results for their teams. Just 2 out of 77.

    Another 7 forwards scored 20 or more points.

    Player, GP, Points

    Victor Rask, 80, 33
    Christian Dvorak, 78, 33
    Boone Jenner, 72, 29
    Artturi Lehkonen, 73, 28
    Matt Nieto, 66, 24
    Roope Hintz, 58, 22
    Chris Tierney, 43, 21

    – There were only 13 out of 77 forwards who played at least 41 games in their debut season.

    – There were only 15 out of 77 forwards who scored in the double digits.

    – The median number of games played was 10. The median number of points scored was 2.

    – In general, teams were very cautious with their 2nd round picks in their debut year. And their typical impact on the team in that year was negligible.

    If Benson plays this year, he will make his debut in his draft+4.

    Rask (33), Lehkonen (28), Hintz (22), and Phillip Di Giuseppe (17) are the only players in that time frame who made their debut in their draft+4 and scored 10 or more points.

    Here’s the entire list:

    Player, GP, Pts

    Victor Rask, 80, 33
    Artturi Lehkonen, 73, 28
    Roope Hintz, 58, 22
    William Carrier, 41, 8
    Phillip Di Giuseppe, 41, 17
    Zach Sanford, 39, 8
    Brett Ritchie, 31, 9
    Adam Erne, 26, 3
    William Karlsson, 21, 5
    Brock McGinn, 21, 4
    J.T. Compher, 21, 5
    Remi Elie, 18, 7
    Ryan Donato, 12, 9
    Calle Jarnkrok, 12, 9
    Tyler Pitlick, 10, 1
    Brendan Lemieux, 9, 1
    Rocco Grimaldi, 7, 1
    Tyler Bertuzzi, 7, 0
    Nick Sorensen, 5, 1
    Kevin Stenlund, 4, 0
    Devin Shore, 3, 0
    Shane Prince, 2, 1
    Valentin Zykov, 2, 1
    Miikka Salomaki, 1, 1

    Lots of reasonable names and players. Lots of slow starts in their first year in the league.

    If Tippett is a gambler (and a lucky gambler at that), Benson plays higher in the order and performs at a top 6F pace. That’s a very rare result, however. I’d say the best hope for Benson may be that he scores in the 20 points range: he sticks with the team and adds roughly 3rd line offense.

    If he has a slow start, that’s OK. A slow start in the debut year is to be expected and, judging from some slow-starting players in the list above, not that much of a concern either.

  32. RedArmy says:

    Nygard McDavid Kassian
    Benson Draisaitl Marody
    Kharia Nuge Neal
    Granlund Sheehan Chaisson
    Archibald. Gagner

  33. ArmchairGM says:

    Jethro Tull: Yeah you bet. But maybe he return to the bottom six depth on a value contract. Can’t have enough of those guys.

    Well played.

  34. ArmchairGM says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    LT or anyone,with Brodziak on LTIR does he count as one of the 50 allowed pro contracts?

    Yes.

  35. Georgexs says:

    LT:

    One more name to the list from yesterday, only because it’s a good example of the relative noisiness of 5v5 P60.

    Ryan O’Reilly

    Season, 5v5 P60, Pts/GP

    11-12, 1.63, 0.68
    12-13, 1.89, 0.69
    13-14, 1.9, 0.80
    14-15, 1.92, 0.67
    15-16, 1.4, 0.84
    16-17, 1.38, 0.76
    17-18, 1.07, 0.75
    18-19, 2.17, 0.94

    I’m guessing the analytics guy in STL who put his faith in 5v5 P60 would have advised his team to pass on O’Reilly at 7.5 million per. Not worth it.

  36. jp says:

    A look at scoring by current Oilers forwards in recent years through the lens of Pts/Game (thank you George).

    Last season 393 NHL forwards played >40 games (just more than 12 players per team). Dividing those players into P/G bins:

    First line —— 1-93 1.56-0.68 P/G
    Second line 94-186 0.68-0.45 P/G
    Third line – 187-279 0.45-0.32 P/G
    Fourth line 280-372 0.32-0.16 P/G
    393rd —————– 0.07 P/G

    P/G for current Oilers over the past 3 seasons:

    McDavid 1.34(1st in NHL)
    Draisaitl 1.04 (tied for 9th)
    Nuge 0.71
    ———————————-
    Neal 0.51
    Gagner 0.50
    ———————————-
    Chiasson 0.37
    Granlund 0.33
    ———————————-
    Archibald 0.30
    Kassian 0.30
    Khaira 0.29
    Sheahan 0.26
    (Puljujarvi 0.27)
    (Brodziak 0.26)
    ———————————-
    *Less than 60 total GP
    Currie 0.24
    Gambardella 0.20
    Yamamoto 0.19
    Jurco 0.19
    Cave 0.09
    Malone 0.00

    So. 2 top 10 players.
    1 low end 1st line scorer.
    2 below average 2nd line scorers (who underachieved that last season).
    2 below average 3rd line scorers
    4 (above average) 4th line scorers (plus 2 more who are apparently out of the picture)

    That’s a lot less encouraging than the even strength goals stuff I looked at a while back, but it’s likely more relevant.

  37. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: That was more irritating as there was no hockey reason for it but, to me, this is more material – its $1.075M of extra cap hit.

    Yup, they could run with 22 – as I said, in-season cap management is going to be an issue.

    Far from ideal

    I’m not sure I understand your irritation. As I see it, it couldn’t play out any other way.

    Brodziak is healthy, he plays for the Oilers. No compelling reason to send him down.

    He is injured, he can’t be. He fails pre-season medical, this cements this.

    So LTIR, retirement or mutual termination of contract are maybe his only options.

    To have done it any other way would mean somebody wasn’t playing with straight dice.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Staples, practice yesterday had:

    Benson/Marody/Yamamoto
    Hebig/McLeod/Maksimov
    Safin/Starrett/Vesey

    Bouch and Sammy were paired together.

    We know Kailer won’t play – I assume Maksi takes the spot.

    Lavoie was 4RW, not sure why – they may just bump him right up to that top spot – we’ll see.

  39. McNuge93 says:

    OriginalPouzar: That was more irritating as there was no hockey reason for it but, to me, this is more material – its $1.075M of extra cap hit.

    Yup, they could run with 22 – as I said, in-season cap management is going to be an issue.

    Far from ideal

    Who knows maybe the Oilers can still do a minor deal with a cash strapped team; say Cave for someone making $2 mil or so. But $1 mil isn’t make or break. The Oilers have enough bodies that if some injuries hit they have some depth to fill. Maybe goaltending could become an Issue? This year is more about seeing how some the new hires and young prospects perform.

  40. Lowetide says:

    Reid Wilkins:

    lineup tonight in Red Deer vs. Flames rookies:
    Benson-Marody-Hebig
    Vesey-McLeod-Maksimov
    Lavoie-Iacobellis-Safin
    Stukel-Starrett-Keeler
    Yamamoto will not play.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wells and Skinner splitting the net tonight.

    Vesey/McLeod/Maksi is a line so I guess maybe Lavoie will be up on 1RW?

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Nugent-Bowman, Hebig will be up at 1RW.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid skating today with the rest of the guys at the “Captains Skate”.

  44. jp says:

    McNuge93: Who knows maybe the Oilers can still do a minor deal with a cash strapped team; say Cave for someone making $2 mil or so. But $1 mil isn’t make or break. The Oilers have enough bodies that if some injuries hit they have some depth to fill. Maybe goaltending could become an Issue? This year is more about seeing how some the new hires and young prospects perform.

    I don’t think they still can though. They could have added a $1.5-$2M player if Brodziak was headed to the minors, but he eats basically all of that flexibility up.

    The Oilers have $1.3-1.6M in cap space with a 23 man roster and Brodziak on IR/LTIR. Holland has stated he wants to save about $1M for in season cap management (injuries, where the player needs to be replaced but the team still has to pay the injured player) and a similar amount for Smith’s bonuses. The team is shy of those numbers right now.

    They could technically add a $2M player, but I think it’s highly unlikely (unless Holland wants to go Dubas lite, add a $2.3-$2.6M player to get right to the cap, then actually take advantage of the LTIR relief. Also unlikely and would leave the team with only about $1M for in season moves and Smith’s bonuses).

  45. jtblack says:

    Georgexs:
    Benson is a 2nd round pick.

    There have been 77 forwards picked in the 2nd round who have debuted in the NHL from 13-14 to 18-19.

    DeBrincat and Aho stand apart. Both debuted in their draft+2, both played the full 82 games, both scored at a top 6F rate. (DeBrincat – 52, Aho – 49).

    This means just 2 out of 77 2nd round debuts produced clear top 6F results for their teams. Just 2 out of 77.

    Another 7 forwards scored 20 or more points.

    Player, GP, Points

    Victor Rask, 80, 33
    Christian Dvorak, 78, 33
    Boone Jenner, 72, 29
    Artturi Lehkonen, 73, 28
    Matt Nieto, 66, 24
    Roope Hintz, 58, 22
    Chris Tierney, 43, 21

    – There were only 13 out of 77 forwards who played at least 41 games in their debut season.

    – There were only 15 out of 77 forwards who scored in the double digits.

    – The median number of games played was 10. The median number of points scored was 2.

    – In general, teams were very cautious with their 2nd round picks in their debut year. And their typical impact on the team in that year was negligible.

    If Benson plays this year, he will make his debut in his draft+4.

    Rask (33), Lehkonen (28), Hintz (22), and Phillip Di Giuseppe (17) are the only players in that time frame who made their debut in their draft+4 and scored 10 or more points.

    Here’s the entire list:

    Player, GP, Pts

    Victor Rask, 80, 33
    Artturi Lehkonen, 73, 28
    Roope Hintz, 58, 22
    William Carrier, 41, 8
    Phillip Di Giuseppe, 41, 17
    Zach Sanford, 39, 8
    Brett Ritchie, 31, 9
    Adam Erne, 26, 3
    William Karlsson, 21, 5
    Brock McGinn, 21, 4
    J.T. Compher, 21, 5
    Remi Elie, 18, 7
    Ryan Donato, 12, 9
    Calle Jarnkrok, 12, 9
    Tyler Pitlick, 10, 1
    Brendan Lemieux, 9, 1
    Rocco Grimaldi, 7, 1
    Tyler Bertuzzi, 7, 0
    Nick Sorensen, 5, 1
    Kevin Stenlund, 4, 0
    Devin Shore, 3, 0
    Shane Prince, 2, 1
    Valentin Zykov, 2, 1
    Miikka Salomaki, 1, 1

    Lots of reasonable names and players. Lots of slow starts in their first year in the league.

    If Tippett is a gambler (and a lucky gambler at that), Benson plays higher in the order and performs at a top 6F pace. That’s a very rare result, however. I’d say the best hope for Benson may be that he scores in the 20 points range: he sticks with the team and adds roughly 3rd line offense.

    If he has a slow start, that’s OK. A slow start in the debut year is to be expected and, judging from some slow-starting players in the list above, not that much of a concern either.

    INTERESTING. THANKS !

  46. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid skating today with the rest of the guys at the “Captains Skate”.

    That should shut up the eastern media.

    * by eastern I mean central Canada.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull: As yesterday, I believe you cannot assign injured players.

    So let’s examine the LTIR decision. It says in of itself that Brodziak was expected to play this year.

    Assigning him to the AHL before the medical would suggest we had some kind of inside knowledge of a long term injury.

    It would have seemed something was amiss if he was randomly assigned to the AHL as he was a first team regular.

    Things seem to have happened in the proper order.

    Assigning a player for no apparent reason, but knowing he was done even before a medical examination in order to gain cap relief is high shenanigans indeed.

    My assumption, up and till recently, was that Brodziak was fine to play and, once better options presented themselves at camp, Brodz would be assigned to the AHL and $1.075M of his cap hit would be gone, leaving a $75K cap hit. He would likely not report but that’s fine.

    Now, it seems he is not healthy enough to pass his physical and is likely not able to play this year. This means he can’t be assigned to the AHL and will be placed on IR/LTIR. That does not get rid of his cap hit and, currently, the Oilers will get to LTIR relief cushion – it simply keeps the entire cap hit on the books, all $1.15M – and they need to cover the roster spot.

    I’m not saying the organization should have or should do anything different – they can’t, their hands are tied.

    All I’m stating is that this hurts the Oilers cap situation for this coming year by a million dollars unless something changes.

    It is what it is but its not a good outcome.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Offside:
    Is the game on Sportsnet or do I have to livestream?

    A prospects camp game televised? Surely you jest?

    It’ll be on the Oilers TV, Oilers Twitter, Oilers Youtube and Oilers Facebook

    Same for the game Tuesday and all of the exhibition games except the one that is actually on SN.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    LT or anyone,with Brodziak on LTIR does he count as one of the 50 allowed pro contracts?

    Yes, he counts on the 50.

    Yes, he counts on the cap.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georgexs:
    Benson is a 2nd round pick.

    There have been 77 forwards picked in the 2nd round who have debuted in the NHL from 13-14 to 18-19.

    DeBrincat and Aho stand apart. Both debuted in their draft+2, both played the full 82 games, both scored at a top 6F rate. (DeBrincat – 52, Aho – 49).

    This means just 2 out of 77 2nd round debuts produced clear top 6F results for their teams. Just 2 out of 77.

    Another 7 forwards scored 20 or more points.

    Player, GP, Points

    Victor Rask, 80, 33
    Christian Dvorak, 78, 33
    Boone Jenner, 72, 29
    Artturi Lehkonen, 73, 28
    Matt Nieto, 66, 24
    Roope Hintz, 58, 22
    Chris Tierney, 43, 21

    – There were only 13 out of 77 forwards who played at least 41 games in their debut season.

    – There were only 15 out of 77 forwards who scored in the double digits.

    – The median number of games played was 10. The median number of points scored was 2.

    – In general, teams were very cautious with their 2nd round picks in their debut year. And their typical impact on the team in that year was negligible.

    If Benson plays this year, he will make his debut in his draft+4.

    Rask (33), Lehkonen (28), Hintz (22), and Phillip Di Giuseppe (17) are the only players in that time frame who made their debut in their draft+4 and scored 10 or more points.

    Here’s the entire list:

    Player, GP, Pts

    Victor Rask, 80, 33
    Artturi Lehkonen, 73, 28
    Roope Hintz, 58, 22
    William Carrier, 41, 8
    Phillip Di Giuseppe, 41, 17
    Zach Sanford, 39, 8
    Brett Ritchie, 31, 9
    Adam Erne, 26, 3
    William Karlsson, 21, 5
    Brock McGinn, 21, 4
    J.T. Compher, 21, 5
    Remi Elie, 18, 7
    Ryan Donato, 12, 9
    Calle Jarnkrok, 12, 9
    Tyler Pitlick, 10, 1
    Brendan Lemieux, 9, 1
    Rocco Grimaldi, 7, 1
    Tyler Bertuzzi, 7, 0
    Nick Sorensen, 5, 1
    Kevin Stenlund, 4, 0
    Devin Shore, 3, 0
    Shane Prince, 2, 1
    Valentin Zykov, 2, 1
    Miikka Salomaki, 1, 1

    Lots of reasonable names and players. Lots of slow starts in their first year in the league.

    If Tippett is a gambler (and a lucky gambler at that), Benson plays higher in the order and performs at a top 6F pace. That’s a very rare result, however. I’d say the best hope for Benson may be that he scores in the 20 points range: he sticks with the team and adds roughly 3rd line offense.

    If he has a slow start, that’s OK. A slow start in the debut year is to be expected and, judging from some slow-starting players in the list above, not that much of a concern either.

    This is good information but, in my opinion, should be read in conjunction with WG’s recent blog which compares Benson’s season to similar seasons in the AHL at the same age.

    While one shouldn’t expect true top 6 production, the picture is a bit rosier for this year (apx 20 points) and moreso for the future.

  51. Victoria Oil says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter, I will go with a Hemsky (83 points) for the Oilers and a Messier (11 goals) for Jesse until he gets traded.

    Thanks.

  52. Pretendergast says:

    To whomever is in the know.

    I’m going to buy the condors AHL package, but does it allow one to watch replays if I can’t watch the game? Would be nice to throw it on during a morning workout or something rather than 8pm.

  53. BONE207 says:

    Side: OriginalPouzar:
    YES – A Oilers hockey game to watch tonight – just the prospects but still – so exiting.

    Hoping that Maksimov gets the 1RW spot with Benson and Marody!

    Side: Who are you looking forward to watching the most?

    Side…
    You are supposed to ask who he is looking forward to exiting the most. He must hate some rookie.

    As for the game, there is some excitement in that we can see some of the most intriguing prospects in game action so we can get a glimpse of what we may expect on future Oiler teams.

    Hopefully all the rookies skate like CONNOR, score like Leon & make the Old Dutch acquisitions look like bantams.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull: I’m not sure I understand your irritation. As I see it, it couldn’t play out any other way.

    Brodziak is healthy, he plays for the Oilers. No compelling reason to send him down.

    He is injured, he can’t be. He fails pre-season medical, this cements this.

    So LTIR, retirement or mutual termination of contract are maybe his only options.

    To have done it any other way would mean somebody wasn’t playing with straight dice.

    The irritation is the assumption that he was healthy and would be sent down as passed by better players.

    Very few penciled him on to the roster and most that were making rosters without Brodziak has $1.075M of his cap hit gone.

    I was one of those.

    That is no longer possible.

    The “Brodz won’t pass a physical” – $1.075M of cap hit new for the Oilers – that’s why I’m disapointed,

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    McNuge: Who knows maybe the Oilers can still do a minor deal with a cash strapped team say Cave for someone making $2 mil or so. But $1 mil isn’t make or break. The Oilers have enough bodies that if some injuries hit they have some depth to fill. Maybe goaltending could become an Issue? This year is more about seeing how some the new hires and young prospects perform.

    Yes, Holland could do something in order to get the team closer to the cap and then get an LTIR cushion.

    At the same time, using an LTIR cushion will make in-season roster adjustments even more difficult including day to day cap management.

    There would be the potential to not even bring up a replacement player when someone goes on IR for 10 days or two weeks.

    If Nuge tweaks something and is out for 2 weeks, his cap hit stays when on IR and there may not even be room to bring up a Marody, for example.

    An extra $1.075M to the cap is not immaterial – that is really the point.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Reid Wilkins:

    lineup tonight in Red Deer vs. Flames rookies:
    Benson-Marody-Hebig
    Vesey-McLeod-Maksimov
    Lavoie-Iacobellis-Safin
    Stukel-Starrett-Keeler
    Yamamoto will not play.

    Would like to see Hebig and Lavoie flipped but I get it.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan Rishaug
    @TSNRyanRishaug
    McDavid working towards opening night, but says it’s up to doctors. Said he feels good and isn’t limited to what he can do at this point.

  58. Shane says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    It definitely looks like the ‘veterans’ of the group are getting a push.

  59. Melvis says:

    Only 7 hours to go before…

    Bouchard-Samorukov

    I’m pacing around like a street corner rentboy with a jones. It’s weird.

  60. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is good information but, in my opinion, should be read in conjunction with WG’s recent blog which compares Benson’s season to similar seasons in the AHL at the same age.

    While one shouldn’t expect true top 6 production, the picture is a bit rosier for this year (apx 20 points) and moreso for the future.

    Jack Roslovic 1.094
    Dylan Strome 1.06
    Nicholas Merkley 1.026
    Daniel Sprong 1
    Kasperi Kapanen 1
    Chris Tierney 1
    Kevin Fiala 0.864
    Kyle Connor 0.846
    Mikhail Grigorenko 0.837
    Connor Brown 0.803

    These are the guys who in the 20 year old season ( born 94 to 97) scored at a similar pace as Benson ( 0.97) in the AHL.

    Good company as some had success as a 21 yearold in the NHL

    Tylers 21 yearold season story is just starting.

  61. Mustard Tiger says:

    There’s a few videos floating around Twitter of McDavid skating, he looks incredible. Such a relief.

    https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1170397479344295937?s=09

  62. pts2pndr says:

    Louis Levasseur:
    Sorry to go off topic, but just read Mark Spector’s article on Sportsnet.He takes a lot of abuse from other markets’ fans, but I find his writing actually quite balanced.In any event, he makes a comment about the Lucic trade and how it was a trade that needed to be done because a change was needed in the dressing room. (I’m paraphrasing).

    We all hear the stories and rumours about off ice issues surrounding the team (ex. Hall, Comrie, Nurse, etc).Unless we are in the room, we have no idea if they are true.I don’t believe most of them, but what was he getting at with the Lucic comment?I always understood Lucic to be a great team guy and a leader.

    I ask the question on this blog, rather than Sportsnet, because I find most of the discussion here relatively mature and not just a bunch of trolls bantering back and forth like 12 years olds playing the “I know you are, but what am I?” game.

    There are many factors that enter into this. In a leadership role, when parachuted into an organization or team that is struggling it is paramount to first and foremost establish a rapport with the group! Your personal achievements will only allow a minimum leeway. Your rep will afford you a small window of opportunity. If you are seen as managements boy as in restating what management has been preaching you will find your credibility lost. The most important skill is listening! When a team has been struggling the general trend is for an every man for himself attitude and the team per se becomes secondary. The only possible way out is to convince the group that WE made the hole, lets prove WE are better than our record and get back out. If you can get the team motivated to work for one another and this is best done by example the results can be turned around. Belief and confidence in sport makes a huge difference in results. Self confidence and each players confidence in the team are paramount to success.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Per Rishaug:

    McDavid has already completes his teams physical and he says it went well. Doctors will test his recovering leg against his right one, and compare those results to last year as well. Lots of factors go into when he’s ready for next steps.

  64. YKOil says:

    You know, I still wonder, could Brodziak be traded to Toronto? Maybe the Oilers get their 7th rounder back..

    Dubas received major props for his salary cap maneuver (Clarkson) which will allow him to go over the cap via LTIR. Picking up Brodziak would be a move in the same vein, Toronto has roster room and the extra $1.075 million may get them over the hump.

    Just wondering.

  65. Rebillled says:

    Benson Mandelbaum.

  66. yeraslob says:

    Anybody got a link to stream cfl games?

  67. defmn says:

    Not sure how much assistant coaches make but if I was Holland I would offer Brodziak a job with the club if he wants to retire before the start of the season. It would undoubtedly mean less money but an opportunity to start a new career in a pretty good situation.

    You never know.

  68. ArmchairGM says:

    Bianca!

  69. ArmchairGM says:

    YKOil:
    You know, I still wonder, could Brodziak be traded to Toronto?Maybe the Oilers get their 7th rounder back..

    Dubas received major props for his salary cap maneuver (Clarkson) which will allow him to go over the cap via LTIR.Picking up Brodziak would be a move in the same vein, Toronto has roster room and the extra $1.075 million may get them over the hump.

    Just wondering.

    I was wondering the same thing, but I don’t think we’ll get an asset back. It’s certainly worth Ken’s time to make that phone call.

  70. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    I’m guessing the analytics guy in STL who put his faith in 5v5 P60 would have advised his team to pass on O’Reilly at 7.5 million per. Not worth it.

    I don’t know any “analytics guys” who put “faith” in anything.

    Nor do they treat one results as an end all/be all.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bianca Andreescu, U.S. Open Champion!

  72. Gerta Rauss says:

    Wow

  73. BONE207 says:

    Bianca…well that was easy.🇨🇦

  74. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    I’m guessing the analytics guy in STL who put his faith in 5v5 P60 would have advised his team to pass on O’Reilly at 7.5 million per. Not worth it.

    I don’t know any “analytics guys” who put “faith” in anything.

    Nor do they treat one results as an end all/be all.

    Frack, I’m Doug Armstrong and after reading yesterday’s thread I just cleared out my entire analytics department.

    Why?

    Pts per game baby!

    I was playing around with my calculator and figured out I can do these calculations myself by using the boxcars.

    Boxcars baby boxcars!!

    GeorgeXS just killed analytics.

  75. Wilde says:

    The easiest way for the ex-Condors who do make it to succeed offensively (by… any metric) would be to change the way the team plays, particularly in the offensive zone.

    I’ve spent the evenings of the past ten days or so mining hours of footage of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s play in the front-three-quarters of the ice and the choices they’re undeniably trained to make in the offensive zone – the commonality between all of their players’ split-second passing decisions.

    This is partly because of my own ideological differences with whoever (and everyone) who has been involved in putting together the way in which the Oilers were preferred to try to score hockey goals; but also it’s because other teams get a ton of spikes in their outputs we simply do not get – ever. See the stack of 5v5 P1/60 Montreal got with a gaggle of swashbuckling forecheckers that I posted the other day.

    It’s good to think about what might be the immediate criticism of work like this-

    1) The Lightning got swept in the playoffs

    2) The Lightning aren’t a good team to study because they’re so far away from where the Oilers are

    1) I don’t care

    2) The opposite of this is true – not only does every aspect of their management bear some lessons, but there’s a gap that’s really worth looking into, if you want to solve one half of the Oilers’ main problem.

    The Oilers, in 2018-19, without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, at 5-on-5, scored 1.49 goals per hour.

    The Lightning, in 2018-19, without Kucherov, or Stamkos, or Point, or Hedman, or McDonagh on the ice, at 5-on-5, scored 2.09 goals per hour.

    That’s absolutely devastating. Yeah, the Lightning personnel is better, but by 40% offensively? There’s something else going on here. Like with many other pursuits, when the Oilers hit the ice without 97 and 29 in an attempt to score goals they aren’t trying to do the same thing as successful clubs are and failing – they’re trying to do something else, something worse, and possibly succeeding.

    Which is, form a pinball machine in the defensive zone like you’re transformers, jam the puck up the boards until eventually you can start jamming the puck down the boards in the offensive zone; hopefully recovering it at some point in order to feed it to the rickety point-shot machine and try to recover it back again – rinse and repeat.

    A lot of the criticism of decision makers in this organisation seems to centre on them being some variant of incompetent. I’d argue that isn’t /quite/ descriptive enough – they walked and talked like they had completed their various tasks. By all appearances, they were free to pursue their goals, and by all appearances they achieved them. The trouble is that their goals were bad. Especially McLellan’s.

    A lot of the smaller, unforced errors in deployment and asset management can be un-puzzled this way: Why /would/ you play Aberg? Why /would/ you figure out if the various positive offensive outcomes that formed small samples could become successful larger samples if they’re not doing the thing? They have to do the thing! Nothing else matters!

    Anyways, there’s basically three main differences you’ll have to take my word for, because I haven’t hit the production room yet.

    One, using the ‘bumper’ for one-timers and pass alterations (in the way every team does on the powerplay, but at 5-on-5). There’s a particular play they go for at almost every opportunity, regardless of previous failure.

    Two, having the point men actually walk in (or threaten to) if you’re going to release the play at the point. And having that be much later in the options list.

    Three, more ambition on carrying the puck in general. You know that pseudo-geometric thing that McDavid does, where he skates directly into traffic in such a way that the easiest way to stick the puck away results in another Oiler being the closest one to it? A human version of that. Also, this company also seems always ready to one-time a pass, accidental or not.

    I’m particularly sensitive to this type of stuff in times like the potentially exploratory part of the last two seasons. Barring a spike in goaltending and good health, that part’s going to be a large portion of this one. Conveniently, the way to play that’s less punishing on the fans also holds a bunch of information that’s been hidden away by a complete lack of ambition, curiousity, or both! Let’s have fun this time. Should have traded for Burakovsky; sign Vanek or something.

    We know who almost everyone is on this roster, provided they’re trained to play the way they have been for the past few years. And are deployed that way. Try something else.

  76. jp says:

    Ryan: Frack, I’m Doug Armstrong and after reading yesterday’s thread I just cleared out my entire analytics department.

    Why?

    Pts per game baby!

    I was playing around with my calculator and figured out I can do these calculations myself by using the boxcars.

    Boxcars baby boxcars!!

    GeorgeXS just killed analytics.

    It’s interesting how much controversy this has caused given that George’s original statement was simply that Pts/game is a butter predictor of future points than 5v5/60.

  77. BONE207 says:

    Ryan:

    GeorgeXS just killed analytics.

    Way to go GeorgeXS!!!

    Of course I knew this secret all along.

    My 15 minutes of fame & long hours in my Mama’s basement waiting for the dog to pass the scribbled notes that prove my thesis…mine.

    The liquor I consumed that put me in a state of mind to see the answers to the hockey holy grail…mine.

    The 3d models (mannequins) I’ve consulted & spent time on looking into open & closed shot theory…mine.

    Mostly though, my happiness with the Oiler Disorganization to acquire the 3-2 defensive stalwart in Brandon Manning to solidify the leak in the team’s defence, as I predicted…mine.

    Now back to your regular programming…🤪

  78. Wilde says:

    In general, I don’t want to track another half-season of Benson and Marody utterly murdering all comers and then watch them get called up to smash rubber square with the stooge patrol and have their floundering see any coverage that doesn’t centre tactical and developmental self-sabotage.

  79. Ben says:

    Wilde:
    The easiest way for the ex-Condors who do make it to succeed offensively (by… any metric) would be to change the way the team plays, particularly in the offensive zone.

    I’ve spent the evenings of the past ten days or so mining hours of footage of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s play in the front-three-quarters of the ice and the choices they’re undeniably trained to make in the offensive zone – the commonality between all of their players’ split-second passing decisions.

    This is partly because of my own ideological differences with whoever (and everyone) who has been involved in putting together the way in which the Oilers were preferred to try to score hockey goals; but also it’s because other teams get a ton of spikes in their outputs we simply do not – ever – see the stack of 5v5 P1/60 Montreal got with a gaggle of swashbuckling forecheckers that I posted the other day.

    It’s good to think about what might be the immediate criticism of work like this-

    1) The Lightning got swept in the playoffs

    2) The Lightning aren’t a good team to study because they’re so far away from where the Oilers are

    1) I don’t care

    2) The opposite of this is true – not only does every aspect of their management bear some lessons, but there’s a gap that’s really worth looking into, if you want to solve one half of the Oilers’ main problem.

    The Oilers, in 2018-19, without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, at 5-on-5, scored 1.49 goals per hour.

    The Lightning, in 2018-19, without Kucherov, or Stamkos, or Point, or Hedman, or McDonagh on the ice, at 5-on-5, scored 2.09 goals per hour.

    That’s absolutely devastating. Yeah, the Lightning personnel is better, but by 40% offensively? There’s something else going on here. Like with many other pursuits, when the Oilers hit the ice without 97 and 29 in an attempt to score goals they aren’t trying to do the same thing as successful clubs and failing – they’re trying to do something else, something worse, and possibly succeeding.

    Which is, form a pinball machine in the defensive zone like you’re transformers, jamming the puck up he boards until eventually you can start jamming the puck down the zone in the offensive zone, hopefully recovering at some point in order to feed the rickety point-shot machine and try to recover again, rinse and repeat.

    A lot of the criticism of decision makers in the organisation seems to centre on them being some variant of incompetent. I’d argue that isn’t /quite/ descriptive enough – they walked and talked like they had completed their various tasks. By all appearance,s they were free to pursue their goals, and by all appearances achieved them as well. The trouble is that their goals were bad. Especially McLellan’s.

    A lot of the smaller, unforced errors in deployment and asset management can be un-puzzled this way: Why /would/ you play Aberg? Why /would/ you figure out if the various positive offensive outcomes that formed small samples could become successful larger samples if they’re not doing the thing? They have to do the thing! Nothing else matters!

    Anyways, there’s basically three main differences you’ll have to take my word for, because I haven’t hit the production room yet.

    One, using the ‘bumper’ for one-timers and pass alterations (in the way every team does on the powerplay, but at 5-on-5). There’s a particular play they go for at almost every opportunity, regardless of previous failure.

    Two, having the point men actually walk in (or threaten to) if you’re going to release the play at the point. And having that be much later in the options list.

    Three, more ambition on carrying the puck in general. You know that pseudo-geometric thing that McDavid does, where he skates directly into traffic in such a way that the easiest way to stick the puck away results in another Oiler being the closest one to it? A human version of that. Also, this company also seems always ready to one-time a pass, accidental or not.

    I’m particularly sensitive to this type of stuff in times like the potentially exploratory part of the last two seasons. Barring a spike in goaltending and good health, that part’s going to be a large portion of this year. Conveniently, the way to play that’s less punishing on the fans also holds a bunch of information that’s been hidden away by a complete lack of ambition, curiousity, or both! Let’s have fun this time. Should have traded for Burakovsky; sign Vanek or something.

    We know who almost everyone is on this roster, provided they’re trained to play the way they have been for the past few years. And are deployed that way. Try something else.

    We keep hearing that the various deposed leaders on the hockey ops side (like Kevin Lowe) no longer have influence on day to day decisions. But there’s no question to me that when you resist wholesale change to a failed leadership regime you end up sheltering whatever underlying ideology has underpinned previous ineffective decisions.

    I suspect that Katz/Lowe/Nicholson etc. have some idea about what “winning Oilers hockey” means. And so regardless of roster construction (and even in spite of it) you see a certain style of play and game philosophy persist, even as the on-ice personnel turns over, and as other teams innovate around game planning and tactics.

    I’m certainly no coaching expert, but have always felt that the Oilers were incredibly slow to move the puck and agree that this isn’t just the result of a deficit of individual skill.

    Anyhow, I’m incredibly interested to hear more about what you learn on the subject.

  80. McNuge93 says:

    BONE207:
    Bianca…well that was easy.

    Well not that easy. A little shaky at the end of the 2nd set but she pulled it back together and won. Amazing.

  81. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wow. US Open & NBA Championship firsts in the same year.

    Must be something in the water up here!

    PS That girl is mentally tough! To lose 4 games after having Serena at championship point, then calm her nerves and break Serena again for the title, what a performance in enemy territority.

    If any idiot tells you Immigration is bad for Canada, mention the Andreescu family.

  82. BONE207 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Wow. US Open & NBA Championship firsts in the same year.

    Must be something in the water up here!

    PS That girl is mentally tough! To lose 4 games after having Serena at championship point, then calm her nerves and break Serena again for the title, what a performance in enemy territority.

    If any idiot tells you Immigration is bad for Canada, mention the Andreescu family.

    Immigration good…immigrants who don’t want to work…bad.

    Story goes, my folks were given $5 & told to go find a job after fleeing eastern Europe. Not a great welcoming for sure but the drive for success was there. The country could do better but the DP also has to shoulder some of the effort. I hope the immigration department also considers that aspect when interviewing new arrivals. Or just take a stroll down Roxbury way…

  83. Georgexs says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is good information but, in my opinion, should be read in conjunction with WG’s recent blog which compares Benson’s season to similar seasons in the AHL at the same age.

    While one shouldn’t expect true top 6 production, the picture is a bit rosier for this year (apx 20 points) and moreso for the future.

    I looked for comps based on draft pedigree and years since draft for the player’s debut.

    Based on the fact that Benson is a 2nd round pick, if he produces at top 6 this season, it would be highly unusual (DeBrincat and Aho out of 77 other second rounders in the recent past) and a spectacularly happy result for the team and the player (not to mention the fans!). Even hitting 3rd line point totals would be an unusual result, about one in six 2nd round debuts were above or somewhat near the mark.

    Scoring rates in lower leagues should give more information. I haven’t checked.

    But the overall picture for 2nd rounders who’ve debuted recently seems to be: be super, super happy with a modest start but expect a slow start. If Tippett goes high risk, high reward and plays Benson with CMD, then, yeah, anything is possible. Not a lot of comps for that scenario. Guentzel?

  84. Wilde says:

    BONE207: immigrants who don’t want to work

    who?

  85. Jaxon says:

    BONE207: Immigration good…immigrants who don’t want to work…bad.

    Okay. I’d say that wanting to work and not wanting to work is probably the same ratio as average Canadians or more likely lower. 2nd and 3rd Generation Canadians good… 2nd and 3rd Generation Canadians who don’t want to work… bad. You’re projecting an attribute onto a group of people yet I think the opposite is true: most immigrants are very hard working. And besides that, many are sponsored and don’t cost the government much at all, yet find work and contribute tax dollars to the coffers.

  86. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    I’m guessing the analytics guy in STL who put his faith in 5v5 P60 would have advised his team to pass on O’Reilly at 7.5 million per. Not worth it.

    I don’t know any “analytics guys” who put “faith” in anything.

    Nor do they treat one results as an end all/be all.

    Well, hey there.

    Here’s what an analytics guy said on one of his recent blog posts:

    “Limitations of the AHL data

    Points per game are as granular as I can find in AHL results data.

    It would be better to have 5v5 time on ice (TOI) and 5v5 scoring to get a better understanding of the players’ results.

    It would also be good to have 5v4 scoring and 5v4 TOI data so we can get a better context for the players’ scoring results.

    5v4 points and opportunity can drive a significant portion of players points and therefore points/game and not all players get the same 5v4 opportunities.

    Quant Hockey breaks out Power Play goals, but not total power play points, so I just left that data alone and just looked at total points per game, which isn’t the best results data to judge players, but its the best I can find.”

    Now I have zero idea how things work in the AHL. Maybe it’s different there.

    But this analyst seems to be expressing his preferences here, does he not?

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ll be watching looking for Maksimov and Safin to have strong games tonight.

    Would be something for Maksimov to have a Benson like 20 year old season in the AHL – obliviously more goals, more physical – different game. Put himself in the conversation for a job next season.

    Safin, well, that kid just needs to play hockey and start producing again – forget about last year an re-establish himself as a player of note.

  88. Jethro Tull says:

    Wilde: who?

    I’m an immigrant who doesn’t want to work!

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    The easiest way for the ex-Condors who do make it to succeed offensively (by… any metric) would be to change the way the team plays, particularly in the offensive zone.

    I’ve spent the evenings of the past ten days or so mining hours of footage of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s play in the front-three-quarters of the ice and the choices they’re undeniably trained to make in the offensive zone – the commonality between all of their players’ split-second passing decisions.

    This is partly because of my own ideological differences with whoever (and everyone) who has been involved in putting together the way in which the Oilers were preferred to try to score hockey goals; but also it’s because other teams get a ton of spikes in their outputs we simply do not – ever. See the stack of 5v5 P1/60 Montreal got with a gaggle of swashbuckling forecheckers that I posted the other day.

    It’s good to think about what might be the immediate criticism of work like this-

    1) The Lightning got swept in the playoffs

    2) The Lightning aren’t a good team to study because they’re so far away from where the Oilers are

    1) I don’t care

    2) The opposite of this is true – not only does every aspect of their management bear some lessons, but there’s a gap that’s really worth looking into, if you want to solve one half of the Oilers’ main problem.

    The Oilers, in 2018-19, without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, at 5-on-5, scored 1.49 goals per hour.

    The Lightning, in 2018-19, without Kucherov, or Stamkos, or Point, or Hedman, or McDonagh on the ice, at 5-on-5, scored 2.09 goals per hour.

    That’s absolutely devastating. Yeah, the Lightning personnel is better, but by 40% offensively? There’s something else going on here. Like with many other pursuits, when the Oilers hit the ice without 97 and 29 in an attempt to score goals they aren’t trying to do the same thing as successful clubs and failing – they’re trying to do something else, something worse, and possibly succeeding.

    Which is, form a pinball machine in the defensive zone like you’re transformers, jamming the puck up he boards until eventually you can start jamming the puck down the zone in the offensive zone, hopefully recovering at some point in order to feed the rickety point-shot machine and try to recover again, rinse and repeat.

    A lot of the criticism of decision makers in the organisation seems to centre on them being some variant of incompetent. I’d argue that isn’t /quite/ descriptive enough – they walked and talked like they had completed their various tasks. By all appearance,s they were free to pursue their goals, and by all appearances achieved them as well. The trouble is that their goals were bad. Especially McLellan’s.

    A lot of the smaller, unforced errors in deployment and asset management can be un-puzzled this way: Why /would/ you play Aberg? Why /would/ you figure out if the various positive offensive outcomes that formed small samples could become successful larger samples if they’re not doing the thing? They have to do the thing! Nothing else matters!

    Anyways, there’s basically three main differences you’ll have to take my word for, because I haven’t hit the production room yet.

    One, using the ‘bumper’ for one-timers and pass alterations (in the way every team does on the powerplay, but at 5-on-5). There’s a particular play they go for at almost every opportunity, regardless of previous failure.

    Two, having the point men actually walk in (or threaten to) if you’re going to release the play at the point. And having that be much later in the options list.

    Three, more ambition on carrying the puck in general. You know that pseudo-geometric thing that McDavid does, where he skates directly into traffic in such a way that the easiest way to stick the puck away results in another Oiler being the closest one to it? A human version of that. Also, this company also seems always ready to one-time a pass, accidental or not.

    I’m particularly sensitive to this type of stuff in times like the potentially exploratory part of the last two seasons. Barring a spike in goaltending and good health, that part’s going to be a large portion of this year. Conveniently, the way to play that’s less punishing on the fans also holds a bunch of information that’s been hidden away by a complete lack of ambition, curiousity, or both! Let’s have fun this time. Should have traded for Burakovsky; sign Vanek or something.

    We know who almost everyone is on this roster, provided they’re trained to play the way they have been for the past few years. And are deployed that way. Try something else.

    This is an incredible post.

    Thank you.

    Also,

    Tippett wins by the other team’s scoring less than his team.

    Will be interesting to see what he does when he has the best offensive talent since he coached Dallas.

    I think what he did in Dallas will inform us more about what he’ll do here than ARI.

    Thanks again.

  90. Georgexs says:

    Ryan: Frack, I’m Doug Armstrong and after reading yesterday’s thread I just cleared out my entire analytics department.

    Why?

    Pts per game baby!

    I was playing around with my calculator and figured out I can do these calculations myself by using the boxcars.

    Boxcars baby boxcars!!

    GeorgeXS just killed analytics.

    Armstrong DID trade for O’Reilly. His “analytics department” went all calculator to get him his Conn Smythe winner, the player who scored below LT’s 1.1 line in the sand the season before. Why would he fire those guys? Buy them more calculators.

  91. godot10 says:

    Georgexs:
    LT:

    One more name to the list from yesterday, only because it’s a good example of the relative noisiness of 5v5 P60.

    Ryan O’Reilly

    Season, 5v5 P60, Pts/GP

    11-12, 1.63, 0.68
    12-13, 1.89, 0.69
    13-14, 1.9, 0.80
    14-15, 1.92, 0.67
    15-16, 1.4, 0.84
    16-17, 1.38, 0.76
    17-18, 1.07, 0.75
    18-19, 2.17, 0.94

    I’m guessing the analytics guy in STL who put his faith in 5v5 P60 would have advised his team to pass on O’Reilly at 7.5 million per. Not worth it.

    I’m guessing a competent analytics guys know how to adjust scoring rates for the quality of defense in Buffalo vs. the one in St.Louis, or in Colorado.

    Buffalo didn’t have an NHL defense when O’Reilly was there. Connor would probably break 3.00 5×5 EVP per 60 in front of the St.Louis defense.

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    Why would his draft slot matter in regards to what he may do next year?

    His drafts slot was an opinion on his play 4 years ago.

    I don’t think that’s data that is worth using to predict as this time.

    It’s interesting to look at, but I don’t think it has a lot of value.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    Well, hey there.

    Here’s what an analytics guy said on one of his recent blog posts:

    I don’t work for a team and have access to the data they do, but I appreciate you grouping me with them.

    You’re wrong to do that though.


    “Limitations of the AHL data

    Points per game are as granular as I can find in AHL results data.

    It would be better to have 5v5 time on ice (TOI) and 5v5 scoring to get a better understanding of the players’ results.

    It would also be good to have 5v4 scoring and 5v4 TOI data so we can get a better context for the players’ scoring results.

    5v4 points and opportunity can drive a significant portion of players points and therefore points/game and not all players get the same 5v4 opportunities.

    Quant Hockey breaks out Power Play goals, but not total power play points, so I just left that data alone and just looked at total points per game, which isn’t the best results data to judge players, but its the best I can find.”

    You said:

    Now I have zero idea how things work in the AHL. Maybe it’s different there.

    But this analyst seems to be expressing his preferences here, does he not?

    Yes I am and I explained it well in the post.

    I went to pains to show that that players who had the best pts/gm in the NHL the following year from a 20 year old AHL year had a lot of 5v4 opportunity compared to those who didn’t put up the best pts/gm.

    Its like the whole reason I wrote the post.

    Pts/gm as a 21 year old in the NHL depends a lot on PP opportunity.

    I can’t believe your missed that.

  94. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    Why would his draft slot matter in regards to what he may do next year?

    His drafts slot was an opinion on his play 4 years ago.

    I don’t think that’s data that is worth using to predict as this time.

    It’s interesting to look at, but I don’t think it has a lot of value.

    Draft slot may be destiny.

    How well do the previous season’s AHL results predict a forward’s first season NHL results?

    Asking because I don’t know.

  95. Georgexs says:

    godot10: I’m guessing a competent analytics guys know how to adjust scoring rates for the quality of defense in Buffalo vs. the one in St.Louis, or in Colorado.

    Buffalo didn’t have an NHL defense when O’Reilly was there.Connor would probably break 3.00 5×5 EVP per 60 in front of the St.Louis defense.

    “I’m guessing a competent analytics guys know how to adjust scoring rates for the quality of defense in Buffalo vs. the one in St.Louis, or in Colorado.”

    Wow. You only need to be COMPETENT to do this? Any insight on how that competent analytics guy does that? Control for quality of defense?

  96. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    Well, hey there.


    Here’s what an analytics guy said on one of his recent blog posts:

    I don’t work for a team and have access to the data they do, but I appreciate you grouping me with them.

    You’re wrong to do that though.


    “Limitations of the AHL data


    Points per game are as granular as I can find in AHL results data.

    It would be better to have 5v5 time on ice (TOI) and 5v5 scoring to get a better understanding of the players’ results.

    It would also be good to have 5v4 scoring and 5v4 TOI data so we can get a better context for the players’ scoring results.

    5v4 points and opportunity can drive a significant portion of players points and therefore points/game and not all players get the same 5v4 opportunities.

    Quant Hockey breaks out Power Play goals, but not total power play points, so I just left that data alone and just looked at total points per game, which isn’t the best results data to judge players, but its the best I can find.”

    You said:

    Now I have zero idea how things work in the AHL. Maybe it’s different there.


    But this analyst seems to be expressing his preferences here, does he not?

    Yes I am and I explained it well in the post.

    I went to pains to show that that players who had thebest pts/gm in the NHL the following year from a 20 year old AHL year had a lot of 5v4 opportunity compared to those who didn’t put up the best pts/gm.

    Its like the whole reason I wrote the post.

    Pts/gm as a 21 year old in the NHL depends a lot on PP opportunity.

    I can’t believe your missed that.

    I missed A LOT because I stopped. My bad, but It was a REALLY long post. I’ll give it another go.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Stream is up – we’re live.

    Jack and Bob doing play by play – its been too long.

    Go Oilers Youngsters!

  98. Wilde says:

    lmao vesey is the absolute worst player from last years’ condors group in every metric I tracked except primary contribution % and they’re playing him with McLeod and Maksimov

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs: Draft slot may be destiny.

    In the upper end (5+) it usually is, but past that its the Wild West, especially when you get down to where Benson was drafted.

    I think you know this though.

    If you don’t check out the shape of this curve: https://donttellmeaboutheart.blogspot.com/2014/11/nhl-draft-pick-value-chart.html


    How well do the previous season’s AHL results predict a forward’s first season NHL results?

    Asking because I don’t know.

    That’s a really good question that I don’t know the answer to.

    I’d bet it depends a lot on the 5v4 opportunity the player sees in the NHL because in the small sample I did it mattered a lot.

    I might look into that.

    Most of the players that I looked at like Benson get top 6 minutes and 5v4 in the AHL.

    In the sample I looked at a player with his results getting any meaningful 5v4 time in the NHL the next year was the exception and not the rule.

    BTW, I got info that allowed me to remove 5v4 pts from the Benson sample.

    I haven’t written about it, but posted this: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1168615303678312448

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs: I missed A LOT because I stopped. My bad, but It was a REALLY long post. I’ll give it another go.

    I’ve been told “your write encyclopedias. Stop that.”

    Hehe.

    Also,

    Coming to a conclusion on something you didn’t read through?

    *tsk tsk*

  101. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is an incredible post.

    Thank you.

    Also,

    Tippett wins by the other team’s scoring less than his team.

    Will be interesting to see what he does when he has the best offensive talent since he coached Dallas.

    I think what he did in Dallas will inform us more about what he’ll do here than ARI.

    Thanks again.

    appreciate it Darcy

    and yeah, tippett could make a huge difference if he’s a goalie whisperer, I guess I should look at his PK impacts too because although i’m obsessed with dissecting offense, last year wouldn’t have been nearly as bad with a reasonable 4/5v5 GA and I haven’t done too much work on those since the season ended

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Love seeing Maksimov on PK1 – that’s a skill of his.

    McLeod used his speed to create a clear cut SH 2 on 1 with a nice dish over to Maksi – unfortunately, Maksi “dusted it off” and was stopped. Didn’t see that great release we know he has.

    This was on the heals of Safin with a nice chance in close on a PP – strong move inside but the puck slides to the goal line but not in.

  103. Oil2Oilers says:

    Samarukov-Bouchard appear dominant at this level of competition

  104. Oil2Oilers says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Safin may well of scored there. I hope it lifts his confidence after a tough last year.

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: appreciate it Darcy

    and yeah, tippett could make a huge difference if he’s a goalie whisperer, I guess I should look at his PK impacts too because although i’m obsessed with dissecting offense, last year wouldn’t have been nearly as bad with a reasonable 4/5v5 GA and I haven’t done too much work on those since the season ended

    His PK impacts are historically terrible.

    I think Playfair recently said he examined all the best PK in the league to learn.

    He was also in charge of Tippett’s not good 4v5.

    Should be fun to watch.

  106. AussieOil says:

    Wilde,

    Oiler fans getting upset about a 3rd line winger in a pre-pre season game. Love the passion! Let the season begin.

  107. Oil2Oilers says:

    Fabulous, but confused, verbal from Bob on Benson’s improved skating.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    There was an example of something I’ve spoken about Samorukov needing to learn at the pro level.

    He just stepped up at the blue line and got walked – no hard.

    One of the things that he excelled at at the junior level was defending the blueline and the gap – he was super aggressive stepping up to cut off neutral zone passes and rushes – at the blue line.

    He was very effective but he stepped up ALOT and I think he’s going to need to pick his spots better at the pro level. I’m sure he’ll develop this but its something I will be watching for with the Condors this season.

    Can’t wait to watch that team.

  109. Todd Macallan says:

    Mcleod’s playmaking is just fantastic, as of course is his skating as well. Benson has definitely gained a step or two.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    No score after 1.

    Both clubs had some periods of momentum.

    Ryan McLeod looked liked the Oilers best forward to me – I do agree with Stauf who is talking about McLeod probably needing a year and a half to two years in the AHL.

    Bouchard the best on the back end – just so calm and good with the puck.

    Benson looked quite quick out there.

  111. Material Elvis says:

    Agreed with others’ take on Ryan McLeod — he looks good at this level. Lots of players on both teams who don’t look very good at all. The game play is so sloppy it is almost unwatchable. Time to overseed the lawn!

  112. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    No score after 1.

    Both clubs had some periods of momentum.

    Ryan McLeod looked liked the Oilers best forward to me – I do agree with Stauf who is talking about McLeod probably needing a year and a half to two years in the AHL.

    Bouchard the best on the back end – just so calm and good with the puck.

    Benson looked quite quick out there.

    I just got home from work to hear Stauffer’s praise and take. Nice to see yours, also.

    He also spoke highly of Lavoie and the need for Lavoie and the shooting specifically. How do you see this?

  113. dessert1111 says:

    so far it looks like the AHL/invite guys are a step below the NHL contracts and draft picks, which is what you’d expect.

    The biggest positive for me so far is Bouchard’s play in the D zone. He looks a step above.

  114. dessert1111 says:

    overall, a very sloppy game so far.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would suggest that V. Deharnais is slated for the 7D spot in Bake to start the season (with no injuries) and he’s not helping himself work towards a lineup spot in through half of this game. Struggling. That’s OK though, conference defensive d-man on the year but, given he’s coming from college, this is his first camp like this. Will take him some time to adjust I figure.

  116. Professor Q says:

    That wasn’t a fight. That was a jump. The Flames suck. And to do it to an NCAA signing? Chump move. Typical Flames brute prospect move.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    ProfessorQ: I just got home from work to hear Stauffer’s praise and take. Nice to see yours, also.

    He also spoke highly of Lavoie and the need for Lavoie and the shooting specifically. How do you see this?

    Lavoie had one nice rush to the net in the first and was generally involved.

    Didn’t really get to see him unleash his shot though.

  118. Keith says:

    Professor Q,
    Yeah totally gutless.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    dessert:
    so far it looks like the AHL/invite guys are a step below the NHL contracts and draft picks, which is what you’d expect.

    The biggest positive for me so far is Bouchard’s play in the D zone. He looks a step above.

    The Bouchard/Samorukov pair has been very good, as expected. They have had some “moments” against the Dube line though.

  120. Professor Q says:

    Can no one receive a pass? Weird game thus far.

  121. Professor Q says:

    No, not another fight. The first one. And not only did the Flame lay him out, but his skate hit the back of his head.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yikes – Marody, coming off that concussion, got hit high and he’s struggling a bit on the bench.

    Dehanrnais came in for “protection” after the fact.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    dessert:
    overall, a very sloppy game so far.

    Its a prospects game 2 days after camp started with a mix of talent from top 10 picks to ECHL plugs.

    Yes, sloppiness is expected.

  124. Ranford.85 says:

    Edmonton is getting roughed up. I was disappointed with Marody so far but that hit looked rough.
    Good to see a healthy Safin out there though and I finally get to see why people have been so interested in him.

    Joke of the day… the next interview K Gretzky does, look away from the TV and you’ll notice how much he sounds like his brother. Had a good laugh when I was cooking in the kitchen and thought Wayne was being interviewed about the Condors??!

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Marody out for the third period – great stuff!

  126. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Marody out for the third period – great stuff!

    They should really be punishing the Flames more, but instead these refs will likely give another few penalties to Edmonton just in case.

  127. so polar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Marody out for the third period – great stuff!

    Why must you worry us like this, OP? Marody was out around the 14:45 mark with Safin and Benson.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Aside for a few blips in the 2nd, Bouchard and Samorukov are dominant out there.

    Benson taking over the “top forward” award from McLeod.

    Safin looks good – great to see.

  129. jake70 says:

    what number is Lavoie?

  130. jake70 says:

    jake70:
    what number is Lavoie?

    nevermind….answered

  131. Professor Q says:

    Must the Flames draft and sign all these goons? Looks like Tkachuk and Giordano will be getting a lot more company.

    Yes, my Flame Hate is mid-season strength already. The refs, too.

  132. Ranford.85 says:

    Same officiating style as our NHL games…

  133. Professor Q says:

    First an attempted headshot on Benson, then a sandwich maneuver on Hebig (whereupon the Flames failed tremendously).

  134. Oil2Oilers says:

    Please tell me they have a shoot out planned, because these are not going to scorer ever.

  135. jake70 says:

    Stauffer doing some rapid back pedaling after mentioning Pronger and Bouchard in same sentence.

  136. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs: Draft slot may be destiny.

    In the upper end (5+) it usually is, but past that its the Wild West, especially when you get down to where Benson was drafted.

    I think you know this though.

    If you don’t check out the shape of this curve:https://donttellmeaboutheart.blogspot.com/2014/11/nhl-draft-pick-value-chart.html

    Yeah, I don’t think that curve reflects what actually happens. Outside of the first round, the round that you’re drafted in matters more than the position you’re drafted in. The results for second rounders don’t fall off as you go further along in pick number. The results fall off when you go from the second round to the third round. Then, they stay consistent inside the third round and fall off (less) in the fourth round. And so on. When you fit a (negative sloping) logarithmic curve to that data, you’ll get the false impression that a late 2nd round pick performs worse than an early second round pick. It doesn’t. I think I posted on this a while back.

    When I said draft may be destiny, I’m noting that Benson is a 2nd rounder. And the historical data tells me something about a 2nd rounder’s future.

    36% of the forwards from last season were first rounders. 17% were 2nd rounders. 2nd rounders are less likely to play in the NHL.

    61% of the forwards who scored at a top 6F level last season were first rounders. Just 11% were second rounders. 2nd rounders are less likely to be among the top scorers.

    54% of first rounders scored at a top 6F level. Just 21% of second rounders managed to do the same. You’re less likely to find a top scorer among 2nd rounders.

    It’s just draft round that tells me these things. That’s why I compared Benson to other 2nd rounders. I think 2nd rounders walk a distinct path from 1st rounders.

    I’m not sure how much AHL scoring predicts what happens and when it’ll happen. You made the Benson comparisons using just AHL scoring. You were OK comparing his Pts/GP with players taken in the first round; the assumption being, at that stage, draft round doesn’t matter. I’m not at all sure about that.

    Overall, things take longer for 2nd rounders than 1st rounders. And 2nd rounders have less upside. I don’t know if AHL scoring erases those differences. I’m sure NHL scoring would erase those differences, see Kucherov, DeBrincat, Aho, Karlsson, etc. There’s no denying the player at that stage.

    But, afaik, (AHL scoring != NHL scoring). And I don’t know how well AHL scoring predicts NHL scoring.

  137. Ranford.85 says:

    Professor Q,

    Mid season form indeed! Most common folk in Cgy won’t know why I’ll be so feisty, so early in the season.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve liked Beau Starrett tonight – may be a nice “little” piece for the Condors.

  139. Ranford.85 says:

    Saw Safin, Wells and Lavoie step up.
    Benson, McLeod, Skinner and the top duo on D delivered what I thought they would. I really didn’t expect a 1-0 game.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Konovalov takes a second loss 25 saves in a 4-3 loss.

  141. Leroy Draisdale says:

    well, certainly watched a good cross section of sports today……. too bad tennis was the only good result!
    Esks lost. Oil rookies lost. And finally the Canadian Mens Rugby lost a close one to the US.

  142. Silver Streak says:

    I saw Hebig as the best of the Benson Marody line, he was much quicker and was the driver…Marody, even before the hit showed he has to learn to move away from the high danger hit, not having quick feet may hurt him and his chances in the future.
    I thought Bouchard was by far the best player on either team….followed by Day…he is a keeper on the farm. Over all a very sloppy game…not much room out there to display any real skill…..offence takes time and other than Marody`s line which struggled, most had new linemates to adjust to.
    Good crowd and nice to see the game in Red Deer so well supported.

  143. Glovjuice says:

    Is there anybody out there ?

    Just nod if you can hear me.

    Would you like to say something before you leave
    Perhaps you’d care to state exactly how you feel

    Spent the day not watching that babe Bianca or the Oilers get beat up due to taking part in the Strathearn Art walk. Sold one photo called The Alien. Daughter sold 4. Fun day. Oh, and hit the beer gardens – the bands brought in were good.

  144. Glovjuice says:

    Silver Streak:
    I saw Hebig as the best of the Benson Marody line, he was much quicker and was the driver…Marody, even before the hit showed he has to learn to move away from the high danger hit, not having quick feet may hurt him and his chances in the future.I thought Bouchard was by far the best player on either team….followed by Day…he is a keeper on the farm. Over all a very sloppy game…not much room out there to display any real skill…..offence takes time and other than Marody`s line which struggled, most had new linemates to adjust to.
    Good crowd and nice to see the game in Red Deer so well supported.

    I’ve stated it before – Marody won’t make the NHL, other than a few cups of coffee. Can’t skate.

  145. Wilde says:

    Ben,

    must have scrolled past this. i think the same thing when it comes to the retained actors to a degree, but it’s also just the air these guys breathe in general all across the sport. the curious and the creative (with enough power to make a difference) are the outlier. we’re still firmly inside the age of hockey men.

    as for the lightning tape, i’m keeping it as a repository to measure this seasons’ oilers against – perhaps that’s too cynical, but it would blow my mind if they started playing differently with 97 off the ice as early as this fall.

  146. jp says:

    Georgexs: Yeah, I don’t think that curve reflects what actually happens. Outside of the first round, the round that you’re drafted in matters more than the position you’re drafted in. The results for second rounders don’t fall off as you go further along in pick number. The results fall off when you go from the second round to the third round. Then, they stay consistent inside the third round and fall off (less) in the fourth round. And so on. When you fit a (negative sloping) logarithmic curve to that data, you’ll get the false impression that a late 2nd round pick performs worse than an early second round pick. It doesn’t. I think I posted on this a while back.

    This doesn’t make a lot of sense to me intuitively (which is different than saying it isn’t correct).

    What could possibly account for something like this? I don’t expect you have an answer, but for me it’s important to try to find at least a plausible explanation for something like this (there SHOULDN’T be a discrete line delineating players 31 and 32).

    The only thing I can think of is opportunity. Such that players are labeled with their round on draft day and receive varying levels of opportunity going forward. I’m surprised that that could be a dominant factor beyond rounds 1 and 2 though.

  147. Wilde says:

    jp: I’m surprised that that could be a dominant factor beyond rounds 1 and 2 though.

    I don’t know about anyone else but I think management and deployment makes or breaks the bottom 50% of NHL players, and not even in a developmental sense

    Through that lens, draft pedigree bias is mysterious. Some players get hot-potatoed quicker if they’re high draft picks. Imagine if this was 5 years ago and we drafted Yamamoto in the 3rd or something, he wouldn’t have played an NHL game yet and might have been better for it.

  148. frjohnk says:

    Georgexs: 36% of the forwards from last season were first rounders. 17% were 2nd rounders. 2nd rounders are less likely to play in the NHL.

    61% of the forwards who scored at a top 6F level last season were first rounders. Just 11% were second rounders. 2nd rounders are less likely to be among the top scorers.

    54% of first rounders scored at a top 6F level. Just 21% of second rounders managed to do the same. You’re less likely to find a top scorer among 2nd rounders.

    It’s just draft round that tells me these things. That’s why I compared Benson to other 2nd rounders. I think 2nd rounders walk a distinct path from 1st rounders.

    This is all fine if one is looking at a draft prospect when they are first drafted to see what their chances are.

    But the further away you get from the draft, where a prospect is drafted matters less and what they have done lately matters more. Why? Because prospect development does not happen in a straight line. As we follow the prospects, up arrows, down arrows and all that stuff, it matters when following the prospects

    This is why one needs to look at prospects in isolation the further away one gets from the draft.

    Entering Draft +4, which prospect looked better?
    Mitch Moroz, Marco Roy or Tyler Benson?

    All 3 were 2nd rounders, so at their draft, I can sorta get behind the reasoning they all had the same chance of making it.

    But at draft +4, we find the first 2 had down arrows and most would agree that the first 2 did not show much that would warrant future NHL duty. Benson, lately has had up arrows and what he has done lately is on par with many other 20 year old AHLers who eventually found success in the NHL.

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    Not a great game last night but I guess what one would expect from a prospects game 2 days after camp opens.

    Marody disappointed but McLeod impresses. Of course, one game only provides the littlest of information – recall McLeod impressing at camps for weeks last year.

    Bouch and Sammy dominating for most but also had mistakes and wobbles against the Dube line.

    Of course, not close to NHL ready.

    Hope Yama is cleared for Tuesday.

  150. Lowetide says:

    Shutdown success by Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson is a key for the Oilers in 2019-20

    https://theathletic.com/1191071/2019/09/08/darnell-nurse-and-adam-larssons-shutdown-success-is-a-key-for-the-oilers-in-2019-20/

  151. jp says:

    Wilde: I don’t know about anyone else but I think management and deployment makes or breaks the bottom 50% of NHL players, and not even in a developmental sense

    Through that lens, draft pedigree bias is mysterious. Some players get hot-potatoed quicker if they’re high draft picks. Imagine if this was 5 years ago and we drafted Yamamoto in the 3rd or something, he wouldn’t have played an NHL game yet and might have been better for it.

    It’s true, in at least some cases a higher draft slot isn’t beneficial.

    It is true though (i think) that first and second rounders will be given more ‘chances’ to stick in the NHL than later picks.

    Even if we take the simplistic view that higher draft round is more beneficial it’s difficult to imagine that benefit being (apparently) preserved even between 5th vs 6th and 6th vs 7th rounders.

  152. Munny says:

    Ryan: Frack, I’m Doug Armstrong and after reading yesterday’s thread I just cleared out my entire analytics department.

    Why?

    Pts per game baby!

    I was playing around with my calculator and figured out I can do these calculations myself by using the boxcars.

    Boxcars baby boxcars!!

    GeorgeXS just killed analytics.

    Thank you for everything you brought to this thread, Dick.

  153. Georgexs says:

    Munny: Thank you for everything you brought to this thread, Dick.

    It’s strange.

    I said 5v5 P60 is noisier than Pts/GP based on season-to-season correlation.

    You thought about it. You made an excellent observation that when trying to predict the future you want the largest sample possible. You made another excellent observation that scoring is low, less than 10% of the shots directed at net, and there would be a great deal of variance in the results (even more with using a subset of results as in 5v5). And so you could see how using 5v5 P60 would cause our thoughts about the future to be more inaccurate.

    He thought about it. He made an excellent observation that all offense counts. He made another excellent observation that Pts/GP captures the effects of TOI/GP whereas 5v5 P60 doesn’t (he could’ve kept going there). He talked about the value of larger samples. And then… he went Vo2 max, resting heart rate, athlete fitness, and I haven’t proved anything…

    Anyway… you clearly get the gist of what I said and did. That’s cool. Your explanation and reasoning was way more Vic than Latka. In the end, it’s not new, hardly controversial. It’s right there for anyone who looks. I think Gabe Desjardins said Pts/GP is the most resilient (or something like that) attribute we have on a forward; way back when, when he was writing about NHL Equivalencies.

  154. Georgexs says:

    frjohnk: This is all fine if one is looking at a draft prospect when they are first drafted to see what their chances are.

    But the further away you get from the draft, where a prospect is drafted matters less and what they have done lately matters more.Why? Because prospect development does not happen in a straight line.As we follow the prospects, up arrows, down arrows and all that stuff, it matters when following the prospects

    This is why one needs to look at prospects in isolation the further away one gets from the draft.

    Entering Draft +4, which prospect looked better?
    Mitch Moroz, Marco Roy or Tyler Benson?

    All 3 were 2nd rounders, so at their draft, I can sorta get behind the reasoning they all had the same chance of making it.

    But at draft +4, we find the first 2 had down arrows and most would agree that the first 2 did not show much that would warrant future NHL duty.Benson, lately has had up arrows and what he has done lately is on par with many other 20 year old AHLers who eventually found success in the NHL.

    How well do AHL results predict NHL performance?

    In order to get a good read on AHL performance, players have to play a reasonable number of games there. But, don’t most impact players skip the AHL, or not spend a lot of time there? So who are we tracking? How clear is the information we’re using to track them? I wonder about these up and down arrows.

    “But the further away you get from the draft, where a prospect is drafted matters less and what they have done lately matters more.Why? Because prospect development does not happen in a straight line.As we follow the prospects, up arrows, down arrows and all that stuff, it matters when following the prospects”

    This really has me thinking: “But the further away you get from the draft, where a prospect is drafted matters less and what they have done lately matters more”

    Is this true for forwards? Is this true at all? If what they’ve done lately, they’ve done in a league that’s not the NHL, how helpful is that information in determining what they’ll do in the NHL?

  155. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    jp:
    A look at scoring by current Oilers forwards in recent years through the lens of Pts/Game (thank you George).

    Last season 393 NHL forwards played >40 games (just more than 12 players per team). Dividing those players into P/G bins:

    First line —— 1-93 1.56-0.68 P/G
    Second line 94-186 0.68-0.45 P/G
    Third line – 187-279 0.45-0.32 P/G
    Fourth line 280-372 0.32-0.16 P/G
    393rd —————– 0.07 P/G

    P/G for current Oilers over the past 3 seasons:

    McDavid 1.34(1st in NHL)
    Draisaitl 1.04 (tied for 9th)
    Nuge 0.71
    ———————————-
    Neal 0.51
    Gagner 0.50
    ———————————-
    Chiasson 0.37
    Granlund 0.33
    ———————————-
    Archibald 0.30
    Kassian 0.30
    Khaira 0.29
    Sheahan 0.26
    (Puljujarvi 0.27)
    (Brodziak 0.26)
    ———————————-
    *Less than 60 total GP
    Currie 0.24
    Gambardella 0.20
    Yamamoto 0.19
    Jurco 0.19
    Cave 0.09
    Malone 0.00

    So. 2 top 10 players.
    1 low end 1st line scorer.
    2 below average 2nd line scorers (who underachieved that last season).
    2 below average 3rd line scorers
    4 (above average) 4th line scorers (plus 2 more who are apparently out of the picture)

    That’s a lot less encouraging than the even strength goals stuff I looked at a while back, but it’s likely more relevant.

    Thanks for the numbers and perspective on this discussion…

    So….
    RNH-McD-Gagner
    JJ-Drai-Neal
    Gran-Haas-Chia
    Arch-Shea-Kass
    Should make about league average…
    ?

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