Notes on a Scandal

by Lowetide

I was out last night so didn’t get to see the Oilers-Flames game live. In a case of this kind, I like to do a rapid fire review watching the video. As it turned out there were some impressive performances, although not all of the feature players delivered on the first night.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions until Sept. 19 here.

  • New Lowetide: Shutdown success by Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson is a key for the Oilers in 2019-20.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Even if he’s unsure about his return, Oilers’ Connor McDavid looks and sounds like his old self
  • New Lowetide: RE 19-20: How can the Oilers’ bottom six close the gap in goal differential?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson address respective highs and lows as Oilers rookie camp begins
  • New Jonathan Willis: Riley Sheahan is a prudent signing by the Oilers in more ways than one
  • New Jonathan Willis: Did Milan Lucic take a shot at Connor McDavid’s leadership?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With Evan Bouchard as the headliner, here are the players to watch at Oilers rookie camp
  • Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
  • Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
  • Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

FIRST PERIOD

At the 1:10 mark of the first period, Kirill Maksimov made a nice back-checking effort and rode his mark out of the play. Solid.

Two minutes in, Beau Starrett wins a faceoff cleanly and Jakob Stukel gets a clean shot away.

3.5 minutes in, Evan Bouchard separates a Flame from the puck with a subtle love tap. Up to this point there was a lot of aggression but nothing that was of use. Bouchard’s nifty little play broke the ice. He made a short, effective pass shortly afterward.

5 minutes in, Bouchard sends a fine pass to Tyler Benson at the Edmonton blue. Benson makes a deft pass to Raphael Lavoie who drives into the Calgary zone. Lavoie and Ostap Safin work to get the puck in the corner, Lavoie to Bouchard for a shot that had a chance.

5.5 minutes in, Safin corrals a loose puck and drives to the net for a nice chance and another. It damn near went in. Lavoie gets a look later in the sequence. Vincent Desharnais takes a penalty (can opener) a minute later.

Ryan McLeod and Kirill Maksimov are splendid on the penalty kill early, my goodness that’s Dave Keon-Ron Ellis quality. On the same shift, Bouchard sends the pair away and McLeod-to-Maksimov results in a chance. Impressive.

Logan Day joins the lumber company eight minutes in. Some ribald work with the stick by Mr. Day. Nice save Dylan Wells moments later.

Bouchard! Nine minutes in, a lovely flick of the wrist interrupts a Calgary jailbreak. Holy crap. Later in the shift, an area pass from Bouchard to Benson to Cooper Marody, who circles the net and gets a clean shot.

10.5 minutes in, great save Dylan Wells on a turnover and jailbreak. Nice steal in the Edmonton zone by Steve Iacobellis who I have not seen before.

12.5 minutes in, the top line does good work and it results in a Cameron Hebig goalmouth chance. A minute later, Dmitri Samorukov absolutely gets walked. Ouch. Bouchard saved the shift.

15 minutes in through the end of the period, Dylan Walls was impressive.

PERIOD TWO

40 seconds into the period, Bouchard (on his wrong side) is caught flat-footed and leaves Samorukov alone on a two-on-one. Wells makes a nice save.

90 seconds in a brilliant backcheck by Beau Starrett suppresses a sortie (two-on-one). That was fine work.

2.5 minutes in, De Jong and Desharnais have a bad shift, started by a poor pass by Desharnais. I was worried about mixing Desharnais (73) and Bouchard (75) in viewing, but Desharnais’ passing is not strong. De Jong took a penalty during the resulting sortie. Wells was the best penalty killer.

4.5 minutes in, Liam Keeler and Nolan Vesey on a two-on-one, Keeler gets a good shot on net. A minute later, Desharnais got a cross checking penalty and he got his money’s worth.

Hebig some nice PK work and Wells with more good work in net.

9 minutes in, Lavoie with a great individual effort, steals the puck at the Edmonton blue and skates all the way to the Calgary net for a chance. Well done.

De Jong and Desharnais exposed again by Dube’s speed, great chance and save by Wells. Benson gets physical after the whistle.

10 minutes in, Bouchard makes another lovely takeaway and outlet. Easily the best Oiler to my eye at the midway point. The other contender is Wells, who makes a flurry of fine saves at the end of his night’s work.

Montana Onyebuchi suckered Beau Starrett. That was 1980’s filthy.

Samorukov to Marody to Bouchard for a nice chance, high skill passing.

12 minutes in, McLeod gets a nice outlet pass and tries to beat the defender one on one. Unable.

14.5 minutes in, a nice sequence for Benson, who showed some puck protection and eventually helped turn the puck over for a chance.

16 minutes in, Dube in the offensive zone versus Bouchard and the Oilers blue was his equal. Nice. Very impressed with Bouchard.

18 minutes in, Posposil and Calgary No. 45 buries Marody and Desharnais jumps in. Marody looks hurt. Concussion?

19 minutes in, McLeod makes a nice defensive play deep in his own zone. He’s very polished in his own end for his age.

FINAL FRAME

Seconds in, nice pass Marody to Hebig who gets a point blank chance after a nifty move, and drew a penalty. Quality.

Bouchard gets a nice look and hammers a point shot a minute into the power play but it was blocked by some poor bastard.

2.5 minutes in, Iacobellis with a nice steal and sends a pass to Vesey who get a solid chance.

4.5 minutes in, Benson sends a long shot to the Calgary net that handcuffs the Calgary goaltender. A scramble ensues. Safin does some nice work during a shift with Marody and Benson.

Line shuffling, looks like McLeod, Vesey and Starrett forming an effective trio here in the third period.

McLeod with a fine turnover in the Calgary end, Starrett gets a nice chance off the sequence.

8 minutes in, Evan Bouchard turns a one on two into a brillant freaking chance. OH MY. Easily Edmonton’s best player. Showed speed and hands. My GOODNESS.

12 minutes in, Ethan Cap has a nice chance.

14.5 minutes in, Maksimov takes a lazy penalty.

18 minutes in, Hebig won the puck in his own end, skates all the way down the ice. Samorukov with a fine defensive play a few moments later.

Near the end of the game, Marody-Benson-Hebig-Bouchard-Samorukov had something going. I expected to see more of it but it was welcome.

OVERTIME

Nice back and forth, you knew it would be Bouchard or Dube and Edmonton’s defender had a nice chance before Dube set up Phillips for the winner.

SUMMARY

For me the two best players on the ice were Evan Bouchard and Dillon Dube. Calgary was the more talented team (Matthew Phillips will play in the NHL), young Pelletier impressed. Flames ‘close to NHL-ready’ prospects were more impressive.

Beyond Bouchard, I’ll list Ryan McLeod as being the most noticeable among the forwards. Ostap Safin, Dylan Wells and Cam Hebig also showed well. We are off.

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Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: Draft plus 1 but point is valid – his even draft plus 1 year is a concern – not many with his offence in their 19 year old junior season become top 6 forwards.Miles to go but his “shining” in camp, as he did last year, is another reminder that, almost universally, high pedigree (high speed/skill) young prospects will show will at these camps and exhibition games even when there is considerable development time still needed.

He is higher pedigree than Marody and may very well have a more impact pro career.His size and speed are endearing and he has talent.I hope he is not one of those players who’s individual skills are more than their sum.

Years to go.

McLeod lacks assertiveness and may lack finishing ability. Could be a great complementary player if he can push himself. Being a bit tame isn’t a great fit for the NHL. Marody has the same challenges as Gagner, on the smaller side and not a burner.

Both have enough, comes down to personal drive and of course some luck. Both are probably in tough to stick in the league long. Every year a new crop of ready rookies comes along (hopefully for the Oilers).

Ryan

frjohnk,

That is an interesting list.

Spooner and Rieder? Yikes in terms of flashbacks of last season.

Lowetide’s adopted son, Leivo? I really saw Leivo good last year when we played Vancouver. He seemed to get around the ice well and was making a lot of plays. I thought he was supposed to be a slow skater.

McLeod has great boots so hopefully that differentiates him from the rest of the players on your list.

frjohnk

jp: Getzlaf scored over 1.5 Pts/G in draft +1 though. He showed he could score then fell back after proving it. I think that’s a relatively common occurrence, maybe related to these guys having the offense down than focusing on rounding out the other parts of their game to take the next step.

Rieder is another example that comes to mind. 49 Pts draft year, ~85 in draft +1, then back to ~60 in draft +2.

McLeod has not yet shown that progression in offense period. He needs to at some point in order to make it in any meaningful role.

I happened to be in Brandon in the spring of 05 and watched the 4 games of the 7 between Calgary and Brandon. When Getzlaf would turn it on ( seemed like a lazy hockey player) or get pissed off,he was an absolute beast. He was the best player in the last game. I remember him hitting the post on a turnover, just missed a breakaway ( I actually have a pretty good memory) and creating a bunch of offense but Calgary couldnt cash. Id have to check but I think Brandon won 2-1.

frjohnk

duct tape and foil: Guess the prospect with the disappointing draft +2 who was drafted 2003

2002-2003 70 29-39-68
2003-2004 49 28-47-75
2004-2005 51 29-25-54

Sometimes jr hockey numbers mean something – sometimes not.

These are the 19 year olds ( born 1992 to 1997) who scored ( 1.1 down to 0.9) pts per game near McLeods 0.98 pts/game

Tanner Richard
Kyle Platzer
Dan Catenacci
Nathan Pancel
Nikita Korostelev
Tobias Lindberg
Josh Leivo
Ryan Spooner
Greg McKegg
Nick Paul
Blake Speers
Vladislav Namestnikov
Cameron Brace
Austin Watson
Brendan Gaunce
Zach Senyshyn
Rickard Rakell
Dylan Sadowy
Matt Luff
Mathew Campagna
Gemel Smith
Jimmy Lodge
Bryan Moore
Tobias Rieder
Ryan Rupert
Matt Mistele
Joseph Blandisi
John McFarland
Mitchell Stephens
Stefan Noesen
Ryan Hartman
Mathieu Foget
Erik Bradford
Nick Moutrey
Brett McKenzie
J.J. Piccinich
Mitch Theoret
Mitchell Heard
Jared Knight
Sam Carrick
Dane Fox
Lucas Lessio
Alex Broadhurst
Ryan Kujawinski
Garrett Meurs
Alex Aleardi
Andrew Fritsch
Juho Lammikko
Johnny Corneil
Warren Foegele
Matt Puempel
Steven Beyers
Andrew Crescenzi
Nick Betz
Garret Ross

The bad news is that the majority of players who score at about 1 point/game in the OHL as a 19 year old rarely make it.

The good news is that each prospect writes his own story. And we can hold out “hope” ( not sure if that word has ever been used for any Oilers prospect but I’ll use it now) that McLeod can put all his tools in the box and make it all work for the Oilers down the road.)

jp

duct tape and foil: Guess the prospect with the disappointing draft +2 who was drafted 2003

2002-2003 70 29-39-68
2003-2004 49 28-47-75
2004-2005 51 29-25-54

Sometimes jr hockey numbers mean something – sometimes not.

Getzlaf scored over 1.5 Pts/G in draft +1 though. He showed he could score then fell back after proving it. I think that’s a relatively common occurrence, maybe related to these guys having the offense down than focusing on rounding out the other parts of their game to take the next step.

Rieder is another example that comes to mind. 49 Pts draft year, ~85 in draft +1, then back to ~60 in draft +2.

McLeod has not yet shown that progression in offense period. He needs to at some point in order to make it in any meaningful role.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: It was draft plus 2 I believe and he was sick – I think he had mono and missed a month and was recovering from that most of the season – still had almost a PPG I believe.

From wikipedia: “In his freshman season he recorded 10 goals and 14 assists in 32 games. He missed over a month of action after suffering with mononucleosis.[8] During the 2016–17 season, Marody recorded five goals and ten assists in 18 games. He was ruled academically ineligible for the first semester, and returned in time for the 2016 Great Lakes Invitational (GLI).”

Going by P/GP (since that’s the new gold standard on this site), Marody’s seasons show progression:

Draft+1: 0.75 (NCAA)
Draft+2: 0.83 (NCAA)
Draft+3: 1.28 (NCAA)
Draft+4: 1.10 (AHL)

ArmchairGM

Lowetide: I worry about McLeod’s offense. He didn’t improve draft +2. That’s a worry.

McLeod has all the tools but struggles with consistency. If he learns to “bring it” every shift, every game, he’ll have a long NHL career.

Wilde

Wilde: the typical case of that type where there’s just a misdiagnosis of exactly how bad the lower-roster players are.

I just realised this probably doesn’t make sense on its own.

Basically, one of my crackpot theories is that like 4 out of every 5 players who have been considered to be ‘complementary’ players who are thought to be good in the top-six and bad in the bottom-six or whatever do in fact translate their outputs (more or less) directly from one deployment spot to another, and the reason their contribution swings so much has less to do with them and more to do with a combination of their good linemates being underrated and their bad linemates being overrated.

Basically it’s that they were playing with good players, trying to do good things, and now they’re playing with bad players who are trying to do bad things.

v4ance

duct tape and foil: Guess the prospect with the disappointing draft +2 who was drafted 2003

2002-2003 70 29-39-68
2003-2004 49 28-47-75
2004-2005 51 29-25-54

Sometimes jr hockey numbers mean something – sometimes not.

Other than Hugh Jessiman who was a draft bust, 10 of the 13 forwards drafted before Ryan Getzlaf in 2003 had large improvements in their draft +2 results. Most of those 13 were in the NHL by draft +2 so yes, junior hockey numbers can strongly indicate who’s going to be an NHLer.

duct tape and foil

Lowetide: I worry about McLeod’s offense. He didn’t improve draft +2. That’s a worry.

Guess the prospect with the disappointing draft +2 who was drafted 2003

2002-2003 70 29-39-68
2003-2004 49 28-47-75
2004-2005 51 29-25-54

Sometimes jr hockey numbers mean something – sometimes not.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Lowetide:Logan Day joins the lumber company eight minutes in. Some ribald work with the stick by Mr. Day.

I have an addiction; I come here for the… diction.

ribald | ˈrɪb(ə)ld, ˈrʌɪbɔːld |
adjective
referring to sexual matters in an amusingly rude or irreverent way: a ribald comment.
ORIGIN
Middle English (as a noun denoting a lowly retainer or a licentious or irreverent person): from Old French ribauld, from riber ‘indulge in licentious pleasures’, from a Germanic base meaning ‘prostitute’.

Wilde

As for Hebig, people need to be careful with him because this is one of the most striking cases of a player that has serious complementary value that disappears when it’s on its own, as opposed to the typical case of that type where there’s just a misdiagnosis of exactly how bad the lower-roster players are.

He is legitimately going to generate controlled exits and entries and boost production alongside good players. It’s not an illusion or a case of a player being a soft-drag.

In my preferred, non-meritocratic deployment he’d never play without skill linemates this season. Use what you have.

Wilde

Yes, any placing of McLeod above Marody as a prospect, whether you’re looking back into Marody’s years to match ages or just making a point that from now on McLeod is likely to give more, hinges solely on some qualitative comment about the gap in skating or something.

Marody tracked with the group he was drafted in (top non-USNTDP USHL scorers, 2015) where he was closest in scoring with Colin White on a curve through 2018. I wrote a blog post after I found out how he was in a peer group irt production with a bunch of 1st round/2nd round bubble picks.

From memory, that crew was White, Marody, Boeser, Fischer and Connor. They were all pretty close in 5v5 pts (from prospect-stats) but Connor had ridiculous PP scoring and stood above everyone else in total production.

JimmyV1965

Munny: Sorry, plateau’ed offensively (like McLeod last year) would be more accurate.Was trying to draw an equivalency between that season and McLeod’s.Both are bad arrows because you would hope for a step forward.

Sorry. It’s still doesn’t compute for me. Marody was 13th in scoring in the AHL last year, 3rd in scoring for rookies and 1st for rookies in PPG. There’s virtually nothing more he could accomplish in the AHL last year. I would actually be more concerned about his apparently serious commitment to country music than his performance on the ice so far.

jp

Munny: Oh no worries.

Let me see if I can strengthen my case.

We don’t know a lot about McLeod’s deployment… much less than we know about Marody’s.But we do know that McLeod had to play with two different teams last year (so had to learn different linemates and systems), andmost likely received considerably less TOI including on the PP (than Marody).

It might be that he truly did plateau offensively, or perhaps was expected to play a more shutdown role against tough comp with more shutdowny linemates. I truly don’t know.But fair to say not the same push Marody got.

And we know their age is different.

If we were to take a down year from Marody’s developmental past that’s age closer to McLeod’s, we would be looking at Marody’s age 20 year.

His NHLe that year was 23.McLeod’s NHLe this past year, a year younger, was 26.(all states for both of course).

McLeod is reaching pro two years younger than Marody, which is a bit of a tell.

Now of course, no straight lines, late bloomers, yadda yadda yadda… And it’s great because there’s no need to make a decision right now… we will know way more about both players a year from now than we know today.

But because of that projectable game, the skating, the sense, etc… and the numbers above, I think McLeod’s got the better chance at the longer career.But you’re right, at some point some offense will have to arrive, like it eventually did for Marody.He could easily have had three points last night. I think there’s a good chance it will.

He’s the guy I’d bet on, long term.

I’ll be honest, you did a good job strengthening your case. I’m still not convinced McLeod is the better bet but I see them as closer than I did.

Marody did get a huge offensive push with the Malone line doing the hard work. We don’t know that McLeod was buried (likely wasn’t) but he was trusted with key draws and played an important role on the PK. So likely McLeod had the more difficult minutes (or at least less offensive minutes).

The age/NHLE argument is fair too. Marody was in range of where McLeod was at that age. I guess I’d counter that with the clear progression Marody has made since then. Marody has actually done it. McLeod still has to show he can.

My main concern with McLeod is that not so many guys with those boxcars make it. It seems a bit better than I thought though. I had a look at forwards who scored 30-40 points in the NHL last season (where we’re hoping McLeod lands) and what they did in junior (I did this manually, obviously looking more broadly would be better). Of the 25 30-40 point players who played in the CHL in draft +1 only 3 failed to score 1 PPG. That doesn’t bode all that well for McLeod but it was more than I expected and clearly doesn’t indicate McLeod CAN’T be a 3rd (or even 2nd) line scorer.

bmclav

hunter1909,

Thanks Hunter,

I’ll go with Nugey 93 for a wildcard spot and Pulju will bury 21

OriginalPouzar

Munny:

But Marody (similarly) went backwards (Edit: “tread water”) draft + 3.Another bad arrow.

It was draft plus 2 I believe and he was sick – I think he had mono and missed a month and was recovering from that most of the season – still had almost a PPG I believe.

jp

Munny: Sorry, plateau’ed offensively (like McLeod last year) would be more accurate.Was trying to draw an equivalency between that season and McLeod’s.Both are bad arrows because you would hope for a step forward.

I’m confused too. How did Marody plateau? Do you mean NHLE? I don’t have the numbers but IIRC he was ~36 in his last college year and ~42 this past season. I could be wrong though.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: I worry about McLeod’s offense. He didn’t improve draft +2. That’s a worry.

Draft plus 1 but point is valid – his even draft plus 1 year is a concern – not many with his offence in their 19 year old junior season become top 6 forwards. Miles to go but his “shining” in camp, as he did last year, is another reminder that, almost universally, high pedigree (high speed/skill) young prospects will show will at these camps and exhibition games even when there is considerable development time still needed.

He is higher pedigree than Marody and may very well have a more impact pro career. His size and speed are endearing and he has talent. I hope he is not one of those players who’s individual skills are more than their sum.

Years to go.

boopronger

Hunter
91 points
19 goals for Jesse

Munny

JimmyV1965: Why do you say Marody went backwards draft +3?

Sorry, plateau’ed offensively (like McLeod last year) would be more accurate. Was trying to draw an equivalency between that season and McLeod’s. Both are bad arrows because you would hope for a step forward.

Munny

Marody reminds me a bit of Lander, in his boots and his ability. Lander could bat clean-up in the A, but struggled against major league pitching. Marody might be able to carve a career out for himself but it looks tenuous. At this snapshot in time, I don’t think there’s enough there, but I do hope he proves me wrong.

JimmyV1965

Munny: Without a doubt, not a positive arrow.

But Marody went backwards draft + 3.Another bad arrow. So these things can happen (as you well know lol).I wish we knew more about McLeod’s usage last season, some numbers we can drill down on to give us a better picture.

I was looking forward to watching him last night after being meh offensively last season and was encouraged by his game.He did well at generating opportunities.I suspect there’s more there than what the numbers last season showed.

Plenty of time to find out either way.

Why do you say Marody went backwards draft +3?

Munny

Glovjuice: I agree 100% and guarantee that McLeod will be a far better NHL player than Marody.

Oh, well, go ahead lol, but I’m not making any guarantees. Very few such things in the world of probabilities and young adults. The concerns JP and LT have raised are valid. We don’t know yet if they’re this kid’s whole story, or just a chapter.

Munny

Lowetide: I worry about McLeod’s offense. He didn’t improve draft +2. That’s a worry.

Without a doubt, not a positive arrow.

But Marody (similarly) went backwards (Edit: “tread water”) draft + 3. Another bad arrow. So these things can happen (as you well know lol). I wish we knew more about McLeod’s usage last season, some numbers we can drill down on to give us a better picture.

I was looking forward to watching him last night after being meh offensively last season and was encouraged by his game. He did well at generating opportunities. I suspect there’s more there than what the numbers last season showed.

Plenty of time to find out either way.

Glovjuice

Munny: Oh no worries.

Let me see if I can strengthen my case.

We don’t know a lot about McLeod’s deployment… much less than we know about Marody’s.But we do know that McLeod had to play with two different teams last year (so had to learn different linemates and systems), andmost likely received considerably less TOI including on the PP (than Marody).

It might be that he truly did plateau offensively, or perhaps was expected to play a more shutdown role against tough comp with more shutdowny linemates. I truly don’t know.But fair to say not the same push Marody got.

And we know their age is different.

If we were to take a down year from Marody’s developmental past that’s age closer to McLeod’s, we would be looking at Marody’s age 20 year.

His NHLe that year was 23.McLeod’s NHLe this past year, a year younger, was 26.(all states for both of course).

McLeod is reaching pro two years younger than Marody, which is a bit of a tell.

Now of course, no straight lines, late bloomers, yadda yadda yadda… And it’s great because there’s no need to make a decision right now… we will know way more about both players a year from now than we know today.

But because of that projectable game, the skating, the sense, etc… and the numbers above, I think McLeod’s got the better chance at the longer career.But you’re right, at some point some offense will have to arrive, like it eventually did for Marody.He could easily have had three points last night. I think there’s a good chance it will.

He’s the guy I’d bet on, long term.

I agree 100% and guarantee that McLeod will be a far better NHL player than Marody.

OriginalPouzar

McSorley:
Wow.

Bouchard and Mcleod by a mile ……Mcleod was extremely noticeable in our forward group.
You have to be able to skate.

Foot speed was an issue for us.

Is it true some rate Calgary’s prospects worst in the league?

Yes I don’t think even flames fans would argue they deserve to be down near the bottom and these games mean very little in that regard, in my opinion.

Jethro Tull

Lowetide: He’s employed, that’s the only real measure of appreciation we can know about the organization. Everything else we’re just laying our emotions onto an unknown.

YOU may think so. I’LL keep to reading chicken entrails and imagining things that never happened, thanks very much.?

Cassandra

Silver Streak,

These guys have a track record. Marody and Hebig played an entire season in the AHL. Marody was one of the best players in the league. Hebig is a non-prospect, he’s nowhere near the top 20 of Oiler prospects.

Chief Inspector

hunter1909,

81 and 17. Thank you.

Silver Streak

OriginalPouzar:
An “uneven” performance overall last night in my opinion.

Would agree that, for the most part, Bouchard is miles ahead of this level of hockey. He was calm in the defensive zone, winning most battles, breaking up plays and making deft little outlet passes. He and Samorukov were domimant for most of the case, however, at the same time the pairing had their blips against the Dube line, allowing a couple of high danger chances each – both with some culpability.

Samorukov did get walked that one time – he stepped up aggressively at the blueline to break up a rush and lost the bet. That is the exact type of play that we could predict from watching him in the second half of the year and in the playoffs.He was wonderfully aggressive stepping up in the neutral zone and at the opposition blueline to break up transition passes and rushes in to the defensive zone – he not only stepped up but he did so with aggression and physicality. From what I saw though, he was so good at it that he was doing it so often, maybe too often, and I posited that he was going to have to learn to pick his spots a bit more at the pro level. We saw an example last night – stepped up a few times and then, boom, stepped up and lost for HDSC.I feel he’ll do this a few times in the AHL this year, early, but then will learn to pick his spots a bit better.Just part of his development.This is a wonderful skill.

McLeod and Benson were the best forwards to my eye but both had their ups and downs.

Stauffer went on and on about how important of a player McLeod is for the organization but how he likely needs 1.5-2 years of the AHL. I definitely agree with the time line and we saw why again last night.This player has a fantastic combination of size, speed and skill.When he’s on, he is dominant at this level, however, he is highly inconsistent. A couple dominant shifts and then non-existent for stretches.Also inconsistent from game to game.This has been his stated issue at the junior level and some professed its a lack of “drive” or “willingness to engage or work hard enough”. Again, this is what development time is for.

Benson did look quicker and he is just a wonderful passer. The best of his line last night but Marody had an uneven night and the chemistry wasn’t what we saw last year.

I though Marody started off strong but then faded and didn’t really accomplish much.After the high hit at the end of the second period he did very little in the 3rd.I wonder if he was “feeling the effects” or “tentative because of the hit”? Hopefully there isn’t any post-game health issues and hopefully he is more of a force in the 2nd game.

Safin was very good last night – really strong on the boards. Its good to have him healthy and hopefully he plays healthy the entire year.He is a prospect of note and injuries killed his entire season last year.

Maksimov – damn what a chance to score early.Great SH play by McLeod, pass was a bit late or else we would have seen that shot and release of Krill that we hear about.

Lavoie had a nice rush early but he is similar to McLeod with the inconsistent play from shift to shift and that was his MO in Halifax last year. I look for him to be a more dominant force, shift after shift, in the Q this year as opposed to a couple spectacular shifts per game and quiet for the most part.

Anyways, I think we need to remember to never put too much stock in to any one game in particular any one game during camp.

Key for me for alot of these guys is to “be better” and more consistent on Tuesday.

Hopefully Yamamoto is cleared to play – its important for his season that he’s healthy and isn’t behind the rest of the team.

OP your letting your predetermined player evaluations colour this post…..Samorukov and Benson / Marody were very average to poor….Hebig was the lone bright light on their line, and without Bouchard Samorukov would have been moved down to 3rd pairing…..Yes I was at the game.

McSorley33

Wow.

Bouchard and Mcleod by a mile ……Mcleod was extremely noticeable in our forward group.
You have to be able to skate.

Foot speed was an issue for us.

Is it true some rate Calgary’s prospects worst in the league?

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: He’s employed, that’s the only real measure of appreciation we can know about the organization. Everything else we’re just laying our emotions onto an unknown.

Ya, I worded my question incorrectly.

OriginalPouzar

BruceMcCurdy: I tweeted the same last night about McLeod-Maksimov, not just linemates but started every PK together except the last, when Maksi himself was in the box. The killed all 3 like a boss and created a great scoring chance.

Both turning pro together, from same league, both PK’d extesnively in junior, one lefty one righy, so why the hell not just staple them at the hip & see what happens.

Agreed and, yes, I did see your tweets last night.

I think Maksimov’s overall/2-way game is a bit unknown by many Oiler fans, for sure the more casual.

He is a strong 2-way player and was a plus PK guy for Niagara last year. From accounts, after Niagara loaded up at the deadline, Maksimov “agreed” to alter his role a bit – take on less offensive responsibility (and get less offensive opportunities) and be more of a 2-way/PK guy – something he accepted and performed very well. I think its a reason why his scoring rates went down in the 2nd half.

From accounts, he’s a very hard worked to.

His “game” is his shot and his offensive abilities (harness that aggression and become a top 6 power forward with that shot) but I think he does have the ability to “make the NHL” in more ways than one. He could be a solid middle six, aggressive, PK guy that can score. I’ll take that player too.

Not sure his timeline – I think he’ll be a “more than one year AHL guy”, just like McLeod, but who knows?

Munny

Bos8,

And Yamamoto back stage.

Lots of good goaltending bets.

OriginalPouzar

DecidedlySkepticalFan: What makes you feel Manson is underappreciated, hugely or otherwise?

I think my post may have read differently than I intended – I didn’t mean that the organization itself doesn’t appreciate or value him but that he doesn’t get enough credit, outside the org, from the media, fans, etc. for the work he does.

We, as a group, this community but also Oiler Country as a whole, don’t seem to speak about Dave much – yes, odd post or blurb here or there but that’s about it.

I think Dave was material in the Condors success last year – Lagesson, Bear, Jones, Day all have positive years and Stanton and Lowe, as veterans, were use very well, both as far as on-ice success and helping the youngsters (although Day may be older than Lowe, not sure, ha!).

Bos8

Bruce McCurdy: I tweeted the same last night about McLeod-Maksimov, not just linemates but started every PK together except the last, when Maksi himself was in the box. The killed all 3 like a boss & created a great scoring chance.

Both turning pro together, from same league, both PK’d extesnively in junior, one lefty one righy, so why the hell not just staple them at the hip & see what happens.

I count six top end forwards. That would be MaLeod and Maksymov, Benson and Marody. Safin and Lavoie. That’s pretty nice to go with the D pool, the half dozen Europeans and the Goal Tending.

Granted varying degrees of success, I see the makings of a powerhouse.. Nay-Sayers be damned. Enough gloom and Woe.

Munny

jp: Anyway there are miles to go as you say, and you may well be right. I just don’t agree.

Oh no worries.

Let me see if I can strengthen my case.

We don’t know a lot about McLeod’s deployment… much less than we know about Marody’s. But we do know that McLeod had to play with two different teams last year (so had to learn different linemates and systems), and most likely received considerably less TOI including on the PP (than Marody).

It might be that he truly did plateau offensively, or perhaps was expected to play a more shutdown role against tough comp with more shutdowny linemates. I truly don’t know. But fair to say not the same push Marody got.

And we know their age is different.

If we were to take a down year from Marody’s developmental past that’s age closer to McLeod’s, we would be looking at Marody’s age 20 year.

His NHLe that year was 23. McLeod’s NHLe this past year, a year younger, was 26. (all states for both of course).

McLeod is reaching pro two years younger than Marody, which is a bit of a tell.

Now of course, no straight lines, late bloomers, yadda yadda yadda… And it’s great because there’s no need to make a decision right now… we will know way more about both players a year from now than we know today.

But because of that projectable game, the skating, the sense, etc… and the numbers above, I think McLeod’s got the better chance at the longer career. But you’re right, at some point some offense will have to arrive, like it eventually did for Marody. He could easily have had three points last night. I think there’s a good chance it will.

He’s the guy I’d bet on, long term.

OriginalPouzar

Marody didn’t practice with the group today. Coach did confirm it was just precautionary, just bumps/bruises and no reason for him to skate but they will see how he is tomorrow.

Bruce McCurdy

OriginalPouzar: I’m hoping that Maksi and McLeod are a bit stapled together in Bakersfield this year – at evens and on the PK. They were for most of the game last night – for some reason I think Jay likes them as a pair and so do I – at least for now.

I hope that is not the case with Bouch and Sammy as I don’t think them being paired, at least at evens, is best for their developments.

I’m just kind of spit-balling though.

I tweeted the same last night about McLeod-Maksimov, not just linemates but started every PK together except the last, when Maksi himself was in the box. The killed all 3 like a boss & created a great scoring chance.

Both turning pro together, from same league, both PK’d extesnively in junior, one lefty one righy, so why the hell not just staple them at the hip & see what happens.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

OriginalPouzar:
Do others feel that Dave Manson is a hugely unappreciated asset in the organization and are super excited that the likes of Sammy and Bouch get to work with him this coming year?

What makes you feel Manson is underappreciated, hugely or otherwise?

OriginalPouzar

Do others feel that Dave Manson is a hugely unappreciated asset in the organization by the fanbase, media, etc. and are super excited that the likes of Sammy and Bouch get to work with him this coming year?

OriginalPouzar

Bos:
McLeod and Maksymov look like the makings of an elite, PK, 3rd line.I’d work on that for a few years.Of course Benson goes withNuge.Safin looked pretty good last night.Labour looks good.

Shake out the goal tending and Stanley Cup Challenge is right there.

I’m hoping that Maksi and McLeod are a bit stapled together in Bakersfield this year – at evens and on the PK. They were for most of the game last night – for some reason I think Jay likes them as a pair and so do I – at least for now.

I hope that is not the case with Bouch and Sammy as I don’t think them being paired, at least at evens, is best for their developments.

I’m just kind of spit-balling though.

jp

Victoria Oil: With respect to McLeod and Marody, interesting that the verbal has McLeod ahead of Marody, after last night, even though Marody had a similar ppg last year as McLeod, but in a substantially tougher league. Uber small sample size though.

Munny: Well, that’s just my personal impression.I’ve held the opinion for awhile and last night was just a confirmation…I did qualify it with “more likely”. Certainly there’s nothing written in stone, and there’s a lot of pavement between McLeod and the NHL.

Part of why I think this way is because I don’t see either as having the talent level to be a strong top 6 performer.For playing in the bottom 6, I think that skating is paramount to becoming a permanent fixture, as well as defensive sense and conscience.As LT remarked above, McLeod seems remarkably polished in his own end for his age.

And that’s my last reason for placing McLeod ahead… Marody has nearly three years on McLeod and the difference on the ice is already not that far apart.

Still, miles to go, as Robert Frost once wrote.

McLeod certainly has the tools and seems to improve his game when he plays against more difficult competition (ie – Oilers camps). But the gap in offense is really large at this point.

McLeod was 52nd in the OHL in points last year. Marody was 12th in the AHL, and 4th in Pts/Game for guys who played at least 30. That’s a massive gap.

Munny, I absolutely see your logic but McLeod’s OHL offense was quite disappointing. I’m concerned whether he’ll bring enough even for a 4th line role. Marody’s game may not translate (and from reports he was very meh last night) but his scoring is much more projectable to the NHL than McLeod’s even with the age gap.

Anyway there are miles to go as you say, and you may well be right. I just don’t agree.

OriginalPouzar

Bos:
I will not be pleased if at least Bouchard and Benson don’t make the team by Christmas.

What if they don’t make the team by Christmas due to the team exceeding expectations and not requiring their services at that point?

I mean, what is Persson is a legit 5 on 5 NHL d-man, legit 3RD or maybe even a serviceable 2RD and is helping a plus PP while Bouchard is playing top 4 minutes in the AHL with PP1 and proucing at 0.65PPG on a winning Condors team.

I’ll take that!

ewarsaba

76 points for the Oilers, 18 goals for JP

OriginalPouzar

DecidedlySkepticalFan: Agree … but where does that leave Broberg?

Each of Broberg, Bouchard and Samorukov may end up as legit top pairing D in the NHL.

Each of Broberg, Bouchard and Samorukov may end up as 2nd pairing D in the NHL.

Each of Broberg, Bouchard and Samorkov may end up as lower end 5 on 5 D in the NHL with varying degrees of special teams skill

Chances are it will be a mix of all of the above.

Chances are also that each will arrive at varying different times, to varying different places in varying schedules.

Bouch and Sammy are turning pro this year, however, Broberg doesn’t even turn 19 until after next year’s NHL draft.

We don’t even know in which continent Broberg will spend his draft plus 2 year – it could be in Sweden and it could be in North America.

So many miles to go to have any real idea of how this may play out and I have no idea where we will be in 4 years.

What I do know is we have some incumbent top 4 D who are still 25 and under and some of these prospects are going to be arriving and pushing while the incumbents are still material players in their prime – there should be some very hard decisions to be made by management but very very positive outcome decisions!