Dream Baby Dream

These are the days or miracle and wonder, a time in the hockey season where, as Craig MacTavish once said, they all look good in suits. Prospects step up and do impressive things and the mind plays tricks, then the poets and songwriters step in and we have heartbeats accelerating. Kailer Yamamoto made the NHL Oilers at about 150 pounds, partly because he stunned the preseason and partly because Edmonton decided he was the answer (ahead of Jesse Puljujarvi, among others).

So let’s agree, today, in the clear light of morning, that the actual list of bona fide candidates is both limited and unproven. There. Now go ahead and dream baby, dream.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions until Sept. 19 here.

  • New Lowetide: Shutdown success by Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson is a key for the Oilers in 2019-20.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Even if he’s unsure about his return, Oilers’ Connor McDavid looks and sounds like his old self
  • New Lowetide: RE 19-20: How can the Oilers’ bottom six close the gap in goal differential?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson address respective highs and lows as Oilers rookie camp begins
  • New Jonathan Willis: Riley Sheahan is a prudent signing by the Oilers in more ways than one
  • New Jonathan Willis: Did Milan Lucic take a shot at Connor McDavid’s leadership?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With Evan Bouchard as the headliner, here are the players to watch at Oilers rookie camp
  • Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
  • Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
  • Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

LEGIT SHOTS

How many players who spent most or all of 2018-19 outside of the NHL have a real chance to play a significant amount for Edmonton in 2019-20? Here’s my list, with chances of making the opening night lineup.

Joakim Nygard, 26. He has speed, giving Nygard a major advantage over other hopefuls. His SHL scoring pace (he was among the league leaders) shouldn’t be overlooked. He may not play a major role, but he’s a top option from the group who are looking to establish themselves this fall. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 70%

Joel Persson, 25. He has a clear shot at the NHL job, but we don’t really know if he can handle the smaller ice, speed and assault of the NHL. I think he has the skill. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 70%

Caleb Jones, 22. I have him making the team, but he isn’t a lock, partly because it looks like Kris Russell is being move to LH side. If he doesn’t make it, Jones is at the very top of the recall list and his third pairing numbers in the NHL a year ago (over 56 percent Corsi for in just over 115 minutes) are solid. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 70%

Evan Bouchard, 19. Bouchard was so impressive in the rookie game, but remember the ghosts of prospects past. Of course he made the NHL team a year ago. I think he has a real chance to make the team. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 50%

Tyler Benson, 21. That LW depth chart doesn’t look fab with James Neal and is sickly without it. Benson is in a great spot. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 50%

Cooper Marody, 22. Skilled, smart and coming off an outstanding AHL debut. He needs to show well throughout preseason. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 30%

Gaetan Haas, 27. RH center who has speed and two-way skills, we don’t know if his skills are a match for the NHL game and we don’t know if he’ll need a period of adjustment. The signing of Riley Sheahan reduces his chances. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 30%

William Lagesson, 23. His shutdown ability in the AHL is impressive and I do believe he’ll spend time on the third pairing this year. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 30%

Ethan Bear, 22. He was effective when healthy, and has NHL experience. It’s easy to forget about him, but things tend to go in less than predictable directions once camp begins. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 30%

Josh Currie, 26. I think he could slide into a 13-14F job easily this training camp, so have ranked him here. No matter if Currie gets sent out, it’s better than even money that he plays in the NHL this coming season. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 10%

Kailer Yamamoto, 20. His being held back due to injury is an indication (to me) the organization isn’t going to repeat previous mistakes. One step at a time. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 10%

Joe Gambardella, 25. He scored 29 goals in the AHL last season and showed some ability in an NHL recall. A long shot, he could impress Tippett early and ride it to an NHL job. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 1%

Patrick Russell, 26. The PK numbers keep jumping out at me, along with his year over year improvement. I think he might have a career. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 1%

Dmitri Samorukov, 20. He is a quality prospect with a wide range of skills. I don’t think he stays through camp but do believe he has the skill (over 200 feet) to force the issueChances of making the opening night lineup: 1%

2018-19 Oilers preseason prospect scoring

  1. Kailer Yamamoto 6, 4-0-4
  2. Ryan McLeod 4, 0-3-3
  3. Jesse Puljujarvi 5, 2-0-2
  4. Evan Bouchard 4, 1-1-2
  5. Cooper Marody 3, 0-1-1
  6. Tyler Benson 2, 0-1-1
  7. Caleb Jones 1, 1-0-1
  8. Patrick Russell 1, 0-1-1
  9. Joe Gambardella 1, 0-1-1

Ryan McLeod making the Oilers this fall would be the same as Anton Lander making the team in 2011: A mistake. Let him play the season in Bakersfield, in all situations, with Jay Woodcroft as coach. That’s the play here.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We begin with John Horn, our tennis insider. John will put the Bianca Andreescu win at Flushing Meadows in historical context and we’ll talk about her future in the sport. Michael Hurley from CBS Boston will chime in on the Patriots and BoSox. Jason Gregor will also drop in and talk Eskimos, NFL Week One and the Oilers training camp. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

107 Responses to "Dream Baby Dream"

  1. texmex says:

    JP for PZ?

    Who says no?

  2. jp says:

    Wow, I didn’t realize Zacha was having that much trouble getting signed in Jersey.

    He’d be a great return for Puljujarvi IMO. In addition to offensive pedigree he’s been an exceptional penalty killer for the Devils. I’d have to think him signing in the KHL would increase the chances of a trade.

  3. texmex says:

    jp:
    Wow, I didn’t realize Zacha was having that much trouble getting signed in Jersey.

    He’d be a great return for Puljujarvi IMO. In addition to offensive pedigree he’s been an exceptional penalty killer for the Devils. I’d have to think him signing in the KHL would increase the chances of a trade.

    JP 4th Overall in 2016

    GP 139 17G 20A 0.27 PPG

    PZ 6th Overall in 2015

    201 GP 29G 47A 0.38 PPG.

    Interesting trade option IMO

  4. jp says:

    Agreed that Nygard is a near lock to make the team. Persson too. The biggest question is how high in the lineup they can contribute.

    Haas would seem a lot more palatable at 4C than 3C, plus he’s a natural C and right shot. My guess is he makes it but there’s so much we don’t know about the player.

    And some of the young D will hang around, but which ones? Camp will be fun with so many questions to be settled.

    Any of the under 23 forwards sticking out of camp and contributing would be such a huge boost.

  5. Wilde says:

    Pavel Zacha has the opposite of offensive pedigree

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    I generally agree with most of the list and their percentages.

    No Lagesson at all, like 0% chance? I agree that its unlikely that he makes the team out of camp, mainly due to depth of options and “Jones being ahead” but i would have him on the list at a 15-20% chance.

    I have zero doubt that Bouchard is going to look like one of the best d-men in camp, probably look like one of the four best (as Rishaug said this morning).

    At the same time, he did last year as well and its expected that the young high skill prospects will shine at camp.

    He will make a bunch of nice break out passes and calm plays in the defensive zone. He will get shots through on the PP and will likely produce right near a PPG in his 4 or so exhibition games.

    These things will likely cover the fact that he’ll likely make a few poor defensive reads per game that lead to high danger chances.

    That was his game against the flames prospects on Saturday night – he was “the best Edmonton player” and looked elite in many aspects of the game. At the same time he struggled a few times against the Dube line and had direct culpability on a few HDSCA.

    I hope management is able to see the “bad” that comes with the good and, even thought “the good” is NHL ready, there is a perfect place to work on “the bad” for 1/2, 2/4 or a full season while honing “the good” and getting used to “the grind” of the pro schedule.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    I was going to say “I’m shocked” regarding the verbal by some/many that McLeod may be an option on October 2.

    Recall how great he looked at prospect camp and main camp last year and then how far he looked from the NHL during the junior season.

    Even Stauffer thinks that McLeod is at least 1.5-2 AHL seasons away.

    20 year old high pedigree players with size and skill are going to sparkle in these camps, each and every time. He’s going to look the same in main camp and exhibition.

    We know what this means as far as NHL readiness.

  8. wheatnoil says:

    My only quibble is I think Benson is up with Persson and Nygard. There’s just so little ahead of him and very little top 6 upside. It’s going to be hard to hold him back.

  9. jp says:

    Wilde:
    Pavel Zacha has the opposite of offensive pedigree

    Haha, this is true I suppose. I guess I meant his draft position. And his scouting reports (well, the one I looked at) rave about his skill. But you are correct he hasn’t scored well since he left the Czech Republic for Draft -1. He’s done better at the NHL level than Puljujarvi though FWIW. What would you think of a potential trade?

  10. Brantford Boy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I hope management is able to see the “bad” that comes with the good and, even thought “the good” is NHL ready, there is a perfect place to work on “the bad” for 1/2, 2/4 or a full season while honing “the good” and getting used to “the grind” of the pro schedule.

    I see what you did there OP… although it took years for me to overcome fractions…

  11. jp says:

    texmex: JP 4th Overall in 2016

    GP 139 17G 20A 0.27 PPG

    PZ 6th Overall in 2015

    201 GP 29G 47A 0.38 PPG.

    Interesting trade option IMO

    Yup it is. I wonder what asking for in terms of salary. Presumably he’s looking for a considerable bump on his ELC, which kinda prices him out of the Oilers current range…

  12. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    No Lagesson at all, like 0% chance? I agree that its unlikely that he makes the team out of camp, mainly due to depth of options and “Jones being ahead” but i would have him on the list at a 15-20% chance.

    Lagesson is listed at 30% chance from what I read.

    William Lagesson, 23. His shutdown ability in the AHL is impressive and I do believe he’ll spend time on the third pairing this year. Chances of making the opening night lineup: 30%

  13. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Great skater, smart defensively. He’s too shy offensively but I think people see that and think “he’s got a chance” because of the skating and D work.

  14. Bar_Qu says:

    Any word on Marody after the rookie game? I recall hearing a concussion was a possibility.

  15. godot10 says:

    texmex:
    JP for PZ?

    Who says no?

    It doesn’t say if Zacha’s contract has an NHL out clause. It is the KHL, so it probably doesn’t. So it would be dumb to trade Puljujarvi for a player stuck in Russia for one or two years or however long Zacha’s contract is.

  16. godot10 says:

    Lowetide still has Kailer on his mind. Please forget about your draft list crush till January. #DelayGratification.

    And he put the hex on Bouchard. “I think he has a real chance to make the team.” See Kailer. Not until January 1st. If he makes the team out of camp, it will be a mistake, just like it was with Kailer for the last two years.

    Nice things comes to those who wait. Not to those who open the box, play with it a while, and then are forced to put it back in the box again. Open only when ready.

    I’m going to be the contrarian and say Lagesson’s chances are better than Jones’ to be on the opening day roster (paired with Benning, with Russell in the pressbox, hopefully).

    ———————————————————————————————————
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary. It’s a long way to go.

  17. texmex says:

    godot10,

    Considering we are talking a hypothetical trade here (all trade scenarios discussed here and indeed hypothetical), let’s hypothetically assume that PZ has signed a one year KHL contract with an NHL out clause similar to JP, who says No? Edmonton or NJ?

    There are no dumb questions, only dumb answers.

  18. Bos8 says:

    If at least two rookies don’t make the team by Christmas I’d consider it a blown season. Four would be better, two forwards and two D.

  19. godot10 says:

    texmex:
    godot10,

    Considering we are talking a hypothetical trade here (all trade scenarios discussed here and indeed hypothetical), let’s hypothetically assume that PZ has signed a one year KHL contract with an NHL out clause similar to JP, who says No? Edmonton or NJ?

    There are no dumb questions, only dumb answers.

    I didn’t say it was a dumb question. I said it would be a dumb trade if Zacha doesn’t have an out clause.

    And as for your precise question, I haven’t watched Zacha closely enough to have a definitive opinion. My sense is that I would want more for Puljujarvi, especially since I think JP is going to do well in Europe, restoring some of his value.

  20. Wilde says:

    godot10: I’m going to be the contrarian and say Lagesson’s chances are better than Jones’ to be on the opening day roster (paired with Benning, with Russell in the pressbox, hopefully).

    That’s basically orthodoxy among commenters since last spring.

  21. hunter1909 says:

    IT’S BACK!!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON FREE TO ENTER + PLAY

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

  22. defmn says:

    godot10: It doesn’t say if Zacha’s contract has an NHL out clause.It is the KHL, so it probably doesn’t.So it would be dumb to trade Puljujarvi for a player stuck in Russia for one or two years or however long Zacha’s contract is.

    What I’m reading is that he has not yet signed a contract – just agreed to terms. That may well turn out to be a distinction without a difference but there is speculation out there that it is a negotiating tactic and backup plan as of today.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10:
    Lowetide still has Kailer on his mind.Please forget about your draft list crush till January.#DelayGratification.

    And he put the hex on Bouchard.“I think he has a real chance to make the team.” See Kailer.Not until January 1st.If he makes the team out of camp, it will be a mistake, just like it was with Kailer for the last two years.

    Nice things comes to those who wait.Not to those who open the box, play with it a while, and then are forced to put it back in the box again.Open only when ready.

    I’m going to be the contrarian and say Lagesson’s chances are better than Jones’ to be on the opening day roster (paired with Benning, with Russell in the pressbox, hopefully).

    ———————————————————————————————————
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary.It’s a long way to go.

    Dude he has KY at 10% of making the team.

  24. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Here’s my take on all the players listed:

    1) Nygard: gets 1st shot, but 26 no NHL experience just a guy, unless zoomed by CmD

    2) Persson: will get a shot but at 25 and no NHL experience, he needs to be sheltered, and hope he’s a wizard on PP: he gets passed by others on the farm

    3) Jones: If he has to play 3RHD with Russell, it’s not a great spot: he should be back and forth as this is his last year of waiver

    4) Bouchard: Has a chance to surpass Persson and Jones at 3RHD by end of year.

    5) Tyler Benson: This one’s been covered: maybe 40 games, maybe 20 points ish, unless zoomed

    6) Haas: He’s back in Switzerland by November 1: just a guy and not good enough

    7) Cooper: Just a guy, kind of slow. Wish the expectations were lower on him

    8) Currie: love his story: will get some games this year, just a guy

    9) Lagesson: Blocked by the lower legit NHL D: Benning, Russel, and behind the shiny new ones

    10) Kailer: More injury recovery I thought I read: oh no

    11) Joe, Russel, Samu: nope

    – The bunch of guys above to expect above replacement this year is setting up for disappointment.

    – Team will win or lose with the NHLers that Holland kept and NHLers he acquired: maybe one above emerges as a surprise by end of year but I don’t project a top-6 F, or top-4 D this year

    – On paper some might be frustrated: in practice, anything can happen this year. Consensus rarely gets it right for pre-season team prognostications

  25. Side says:

    Brantford Boy: I see what you did there OP… although it took years for me to overcome fractions…

    Good catch. lol

  26. ArmchairGM says:

    jp:
    Wow, I didn’t realize Zacha was having that much trouble getting signed in Jersey.

    He’d be a great return for Puljujarvi IMO. In addition to offensive pedigree he’s been an exceptional penalty killer for the Devils. I’d have to think him signing in the KHL would increase the chances of a trade.

    6 of his 13 goals last year were on special teams: 4 PP goals and 2 SH goals.

  27. geowal says:

    Wilde: That’s basically orthodoxy among commenters since last spring.

    Hmm, I think that depends if you go by volume of posts or by number of posters 😉

  28. ArmchairGM says:

    texmex: JP 4th Overall in 2016

    GP 139 17G 20A 0.27 PPG

    PZ 6th Overall in 2015

    201 GP 29G 47A 0.38 PPG.

    Interesting trade option IMO

    JP’s numbers were stunted last year due to his hip issues, I don’t think the 18-19 campaign is indicative of his abilities. Ten even strength goals in the year prior is a stronger indicator, I think.

  29. godot10 says:

    Bouchard couldn’t handle even strength minutes in the AHL at the end of last season defensively. Offensively he is fine. We all saw that. A bunch of meaningless NHL preseason games cannot erase the AHL games defensively at the end of last season. The right thing for Bouchard is to demonstrate that he is ready defensively in the AHL, regardless of anything that happens in preseason. Even injuries to others.

    If there are injuries, Lagesson, Jones, and Bear should get the first shot.

  30. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: No Lagesson at all, like 0% chance? I agree that its unlikely that he makes the team out of camp, mainly due to depth of options and “Jones being ahead” but i would have him on the list at a 15-20% chance.

    Lagesson is listed at 30%.

  31. ArmchairGM says:

    LT, why do you have Currie at 10% but Gambardella at 1%? I would have thought that there chances would be about even. Gambardella could be part of a high energy 4th line like St Louis used last year.

  32. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: 6 of his 13 goals last year were on special teams: 4 PP goals and 2 SH goals.

    Yeah. Do you mean you don’t think he’s a good return for Puljujarvi?

  33. Wilde says:

    geowal: Hmm, I think that depends if you go by volume of posts or by number of posters

    I don’t know what is going on but I feel like I’ve read some variation of ‘I know this is against the consensus, but I think Lagesson might/will pass Jones’ so many times that I think the consensus here is… that.

    godot10: Bouchard couldn’t handle even strength minutes in the AHL at the end of last season defensively.

    This is not true, I’m in favour of a lengthy AHL stay for Bouchard but this is not true

  34. Jethro Tull says:

    ArmchairGM: JP’s numbers were stunted last year due to his hip issues, I don’t think the 18-19 campaign is indicative of his abilities. Ten even strength goals in the year prior is a stronger indicator, I think.

    Were they? We were led to believe they weren’t.

  35. jeetz says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    2) Persson: will get a shot but at 25 and no NHL experience, he needs to be sheltered, and hope he’s a wizard on PP: he gets passed by others on the farm

    3) Jones: If he has to play 3RHD with Russell, it’s not a great spot: he should be back and forth as this is his last year of waiver

    9) Lagesson: Blocked by the lower legit NHL D: Benning, Russel, and behind the shiny new ones

    I know a lot depends on training camp, but I can really see Russell being replaced early and perhaps traded. Lagesson may be the surprise of training camp as he has been developed properly and by many accounts is ready for NHL employment. It will be hard top turn away Jones as well.

    Nurse Larsson
    Klefbom Jones
    Benning Lagesson
    Persson

  36. Side says:

    Jethro Tull: Were they?We were led to believe they weren’t.

    This. It seemed like a more nagging, relatively minor thing that was impacting him.

  37. jeetz says:

    JP 4th Overall in 2016

    GP 139 17G 20A 0.27 PPG

    PZ 6th Overall in 2015

    201 GP 29G 47A 0.38 PPG

    JP could be the steal in this trade but except for being left handed we would be set at center. Strong at draws, strong PK has some significant offence. 0.40PPG last year at 22 years old at 6’3″ 210lbs. When ever you can trade a winger for a center it is usually a win.

    McDavid
    RNH
    Zacha
    Sheahan

  38. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: 6 of his 13 goals last year were on special teams: 4 PP goals and 2 SH goals.

    On the other hand, he scored 14 pts in his last 20 games.

  39. razor says:

    Someone posted these D lines on twitter, and I think it’s the correct take at the start of camp:

    Nurse Larsson
    Klefbom Persson
    Jones Benning
    Russell

    You could interchange Russell for Jones, but my bet is Jones is better than Russell. Everyone plays their natural side. Persson should be a more advanced prospect than the others.

    The wild card imo is Bouchard, who could blow the doors off and land at 2RD. But knowing Holland and him making sure prospects are ready I bet they send him down to the A for at least this year.

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Yeah. Do you mean you don’t think he’s a good return for Puljujarvi?

    I don’t know enough about him, to be honest. I was interested to see the 2 SH goals and that he obviously earned PP time and made use of it, but clearly 7 ES goals is on the light side.

    At first glance I’d say Puljujarvi is the better player and has more upside, but again, I really don’t know much about Zacha.

  41. ArmchairGM says:

    Jethro Tull: Were they?We were led to believe they weren’t.

    By whom? I understood that JP was getting injections prior to each game for pain management. And the hip issue was an impingement I think, meaning range of motion was likely affected too. I don’t see how it COULDN’T have had a negative effect on his game.

  42. ArmchairGM says:

    jeetz:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    2) Persson: will get a shot but at 25 and no NHL experience, he needs to be sheltered, and hope he’s a wizard on PP: he gets passed by others on the farm

    3) Jones: If he has to play 3RHD with Russell, it’s not a great spot: he should be back and forth as this is his last year of waiver

    9) Lagesson: Blocked by the lower legit NHL D: Benning, Russel, and behind the shiny new ones

    I know a lot depends on training camp, but I can really see Russell being replaced early and perhaps traded. Lagesson may be the surprise of training camp as he has been developed properly and by many accounts is ready for NHL employment. It will be hard top turn away Jones as well.

    Nurse Larsson
    Klefbom Jones
    Benning Lagesson
    Persson

    I don’t dislike that lineup (other than the lefty-righty thing), but where is the cover for injuries to the Big-3?

  43. ArmchairGM says:

    Side: This.It seemed like a more nagging, relatively minor thing that was impacting him.

    If that was the case, why not play through to the end of the season? Every other player plays through “nagging, relatively minor” injuries.

  44. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: On the other hand, he scored 14 pts in his last 20 games.

    Nice! Change in linemates?

  45. Wilde says:

    The only track record we have on Puljujärvi is that he didn’t impact 5v5 scoring during some of the most putrid hours of hockey that any team played over the last three years. I don’t think most know the extent of how bad the non-McDavid minutes are, suspect in 18-19 they were the worst minutes of hockey played in the league by a fair margin.

    In fact, it’s astonishing just how little they found out about him. All while posturing as if they’d tried everything.

  46. YKOil says:

    jeetz:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,
    I know a lot depends on training camp, but I can really see Russell being replaced early and perhaps traded. Lagesson may be the surprise of training camp as he has been developed properly and by many accounts is ready for NHL employment. It will be hard top turn away Jones as well.

    Would love to agree with you but with the tight Cap, Russell’s extra year and Holland’s general preference for veterans I don’t see it happening.

    Maybe at the trade deadline. Most probably, pending performance, the next off-season after his signing bonus is paid. 15 teams eligible. $4 million Cap. $1.5 million salary (after bonus).

    Even then it will be tough. Teams automatically on his no-trade list: Ottawa and most of the rest of the bottom 10 to 11 teams from this upcoming year. Best early hope/guess – Detroit.

    — Detroit will need d-men in the worst way next year
    — they have loads and loads of Cap space
    — Holland/Yzerman connection may play a positive role
    — they have a contract (Glendening) that they may be willing to send back
    — thay also have a contract (Nemeth) that they may be willing to send back that would represent a cheaper buyout
    — they may also be happy to take a draft pick (2020-2021 2nd) or B+ level prospect straight up

    You know… Nielsen has a shorter contract term than Neal and makes $500k less per year… if Neal only does so-so here, and the team doesn’t want to buy him out… Nielsen for Neal plus? Would rather Neal works out and produces here, would also prefer a buy-out if all goes south, but levering down a contract is a workable strategy.

  47. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Nice! Change in linemates?

    No idea. I know very little about the player too. Remember reading something about a strong finish so I just checked out the game log.

  48. Side says:

    ArmchairGM: If that was the case, why not play through to the end of the season? Every other player plays through “nagging, relatively minor” injuries.

    From what I was reading on the web (take that for what you will), Jesse didn’t get symptoms from practices or working out, he only got symptoms of “sore legs” after the rigorous exercise from a game. Which I imagine if I were a doctor, would not seem like that big of a deal because you have someone complaining of sore legs after playing a game where you use your legs a lot.

    But along the way the Oilers medical professionals diagnosed it as a hip issue (relating to his body structure) and said he needed surgery to correct it.

    Jesse and his agent sought a second opinion because maybe they wanted Jesse to play out the rest of the season, or they didn’t believe the Oilers staff, or just wanted a second opinion to confirm the diagnosis just to be sure surgery was the correct option.

    I imagine if the pain was that unbearable for Jesse, they probably wouldn’t get a second opinion because something would be obviously wrong in that case and JP and his agent would have already suspected something was seriously wrong. Or if they did suspect something was seriously wrong then they and the Oilers would likely keep the injury quiet and them wanting a second opinion quiet. If JP and his agent didn’t think something was wrong with him though then I could see why they made the second opinion public – to me this says they disagree with the Oilers opinion (again, if something was seriously wrong, they probably wouldn’t make this part of the process public).

    But I never read/heard about the injections before every game thing before, so that would be news to me if that is the case.

    Again, I don’t have all of the answers and am not saying definitively what happened, just piecing together what I have learned and one thing that doesn’t line up to me is that Jesse was in a lot of pain and the Oilers handled his injury incompetently (which has been suggested by other people on this forum before). I am open to changing my opinion, though.

  49. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: I don’t know enough about him, to be honest. I was interested to see the 2 SH goals and that he obviously earned PP time and made use of it, but clearly 7 ES goals is on the light side.

    At first glance I’d say Puljujarvi is the better player and has more upside,but again, I really don’t know much about Zacha.

    Fair enough. I don’t know much about him either aside from what the boxcars and some of the fancies tell us.

    7 ESG is light for sure, but he’s been in range of Puljujarvi’s 1 “good” year for all 3 yrs of his career and is just one year older. Also a high pick, so possible potential for more offense to develop.

    He’s also been a regular penalty killer for the past 2 seasons and has had elite results, so intriguing for sure. My take (with a grain of salt and based on limited information) is that he’s a better NHL player than Puljujarvi now. Puljujarvi could obviously turn out to be more substantial in the long run but it’s not at all clear that he will (and both players have room to continue to grow).

    The only “scouting report” I looked at (the summary from EliteProspects written in 2015) suggested real offensive potential, fitting of him being picked #6 OV:
    Pavel Zacha is an offensively dynamic center with the size, speed, and skill to make a significant impact on the game. He can play physical, but is at his best when using his high-end offensive abilities, such as his shot, stickhandling, and footspeed, to generate numbers in the opposition’s end of the ice. All-in-all, Zacha is a lethal weapon that can be depended upon to create, and finish, dangerous scoring chances whenever he is on the ice.

  50. Jethro Tull says:

    ArmchairGM: By whom? I understood that JP was getting injections prior to each game for pain management. And the hip issue was an impingement I think, meaning range of motion was likely affected too. I don’t see how it COULDN’T have had a negative effect on his game.

    Straight back at you; source for injections before every game and affecting ability to play to 100% in a contract year or be traded.

    So, JP has disappointing numbers, wants to be traded and neglects to use the easy out of an injury being responsible? Yeah, something’s not right here. I would have thought his agent would have all over that.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    No earth shattering surprise here but, as per Nugent Bowman, in the words of Tippett on Benson: “We’re gonna give him a good shot in camp”.

    Also, Tippett again mentions that the ideal partner for Klefbom is a right shot (even though Rishaug thinks they start the season with Russell at 2RD).

  52. Pretendergast says:

    what about an attempt at getting brayden point?

    JP, definitely a first, nurse lars or klef. Sign point to a bridge so he can bank it up when we have the cap space in 2ish years (hopefully)

    Thought experiment.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Wow, I didn’t realize Zacha was having that much trouble getting signed in Jersey.

    He’d be a great return for Puljujarvi IMO. In addition to offensive pedigree he’s been an exceptional penalty killer for the Devils. I’d have to think him signing in the KHL would increase the chances of a trade.

    A key would be that he’s only “agreed to terms” and no actually signed in the KHL.

    Unlike Liiga, KHL contracts cannot have “out clauses” so, if/once he actually signs, he would be unable to sign an NHL contract for the year.

    My understanding is he hasn’t yet signed and my guess is he won’t until closer to the regular season or maybe even the December 1 RFA deadline.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    BarQu:
    Any word on Marody after the rookie game? I recall hearing a concussion was a possibility.

    I’m listening to Woodcroft right now hoping for an update.

    He did say yesterday that he was held out of practice for precautionary reasons – bumps/bruises as opposed to something with the head.

    Nope, no update from Jay on if Marody skated/practiced todya.

  55. jp says:

    Wilde:
    The only track record we have on Puljujärvi is that he didn’t impact 5v5 scoring during some of the most putrid hours of hockey that any team played over the last three years. I don’t think most know the extent of how bad the non-McDavid minutes are, suspect in 18-19 they were the worst minutes of hockey played in the league by a fair margin.

    In fact, it’s astonishing just how little they found out about him. All while posturing as if they’d tried everything.

    I might be wrong, but didn’t Puljujarvi underperform this bad group in their respective McDavid off minutes?

  56. John Chambers says:

    godot10:
    Bouchard couldn’t handle even strength minutes in the AHL at the end of last season defensively.

    What? Woodcroft had him playing ~5 minutes ES / game (dressing 7 defensemen) for a handful of AHL playoff games. Bouchard scored at both 5×5 and 5×4 in Very Limited minutes.

    You can’t propose that Bouchard was getting turnstiled defensively in the AHL because that version of history never happened. The fact is Woodcroft rode the defense corps who had gotten them there, and was able to utilize Bouchard appropriately.

    I think Bouchard should (and will) start the season as the #1 defenseman in Bakersfield. Contrary to your suggestion, I doubt he struggles with that assignment and should flourish once he adapts his game to the pro’s

  57. Wilde says:

    jp: I might be wrong, but didn’t Puljujarvi underperform this bad group in their respective McDavid off minutes?

    probably

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: It doesn’t say if Zacha’s contract has an NHL out clause.It is the KHL, so it probably doesn’t.So it would be dumb to trade Puljujarvi for a player stuck in Russia for one or two years or however long Zacha’s contract is.

    1) It won’t have an out clause – KHL contract never do – can’t.

    2) As far as I am aware, he has only “agreed to terms” and not actually signed – he may very well wait until closer to the NHL season or maybe even closer to the Dec 1 deadline to see if there is progress.

  59. John Chambers says:

    Zacha looks like he’ll have a career similar to Lars Eller – a little say on offence in relation to draft expectations, but a legit pro and solid 3C.

    If he was paid Ryan Strome money (another fine comparable) he’d probably deliver pretty good value in that spot in his 20’s.

  60. geowal says:

    Wilde: I don’t know what is going on but I feel like I’ve read some variation of ‘I know this is against the consensus, but I think Lagesson might/will pass Jones’ so many times that I think the consensus here is… that.

    This is not true, I’m in favour of a lengthy AHL stay for Bouchard but this is not true

    Lol, well if OP writes once every other day that Lagesson ‘could’ be ahead, but LT writes once per week (twice if you count the Athletic) that Jones is ahead and his job to lose, throw in a smattering of Posters pencilling Jones in the lineup and…what is the consensus again? I jest, I jest.

  61. jeetz says:

    ArmchairGM,

    That’s a good question. I would suggest that a short term injury could be a Condor call up. Bear or Bouchard come to mind. A long term injury could be catastrophic, but that would up top Holland to figure out.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    BarQu:
    Any word on Marody after the rookie game? I recall hearing a concussion was a possibility.

    Just saw a picture from today’s practice with Coop on the ice.

  63. deardylan says:

    “They all look good in suits”. Generational Quote!!!
    Bravo MacT 👏👏👏 Bravo

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bos:
    If at least two rookies don’t make the team by Christmas I’d consider it a blown season.Four would be better, two forwards and two D.

    I asked this when you first posted this a few days ago but never got a response:

    Would it be a failed season if they were in a playoff spot at Christmas and there were not two rookies on the team, not because they aren’t playing well in the AHL but because the team is exceeding expectations?

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: 6 of his 13 goals last year were on special teams: 4 PP goals and 2 SH goals.

    Helping his P/G but not his 5 on 5 P/60……

    Which metric should be used?

    Of course, we can only use one, in isolation from all others…………….

  66. Dr. Taboggan says:

    OriginalPouzar: I asked this when you first posted this a few days ago but never got a response:

    Would it be a failed season if they were in a playoff spot at Christmas and there were not two rookies on the team, not because they aren’t playing well in the AHL but because the team is exceeding expectations?

    The Oilers exceeding expectations, hilarious!

  67. Andy Dufresne says:

    Zach Werenski (22) signs a 3 year $15 million deal.

    $4 million in each of the next two seasons, followed by $7 million in the last year of the deal in 2021-22.

    So Blue Jackets must offer Werenski a qualifying offer of at least $7 million to retain his rights into 2022-23 as an RFA, esetntially making the contract a four-year deal worth $22 million.

    These shorter contracts seem to be becoming a trend.

    Very possible that Nurse’s next contract might also be a 3 yeat deal, which I wouldnt mind, unless he takes a big step forwqrd this year and becomes a legit top pairing dman.

  68. Andy Dufresne says:

    Partiots sign Antonio Brown. 1 yr $9m garaunteed (15m with performance bonuses)

    After pounding the Steelers in Week One, they proceed to rub salt in the wound.

    All of the drama costs the Raiders a 3rd and a 5th round pick.

  69. Andy Dufresne says:

    As Frank Seravelli points out: “The key moving forward in a three-year term contract is the negotiated final year of the deal. A three-ear deal for Marner with a salary cap hit of $9 million, but including a $12 million salary in the final year, could really become a four-year, $39 million deal ($9.75 million AAV). That would also walk Marner to the brink of unrestricted free agency.”

  70. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Zach Werenski (22) signs a 3 year$15 million deal.

    $4 million in each of the next two seasons, followed by $7 million in the last year of the deal in 2021-22.

    SoBlue Jackets must offer Werenski a qualifying offer of at least $7 million to retain his rights into 2022-23 as an RFA, esetntially making the contract a four-year deal worth $22 million.

    These shorter contracts seem to be becoming a trend.

    Very possible that Nurse’s next contract might also be a 3 yeat deal, which I wouldnt mind, unless he takes a big step forwqrd this year and becomes a legit top pairing dman.

    San Jose did this first (i.e. the super-sized last year) with Timo Meier’s contract.

  71. Bos8 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I asked this when you first posted this a few days ago but never got a response:

    Would it be a failed season if they were in a playoff spot at Christmas and there were not two rookies on the team, not because they aren’t playing well in the AHL but because the team is exceeding expectations?

    What drives me crazy is the sure thing when there is no such animal. Lagesson stayed on the farm while they test drove two clods.who would never be. T Mac proving a point with Pulju and so on. I enjoy hockey every year in the full sense.

    Last year with no rookies was an abomination. Chia actually did a nice job and then TMac lost his mind, he blew up his own team as in playing the two studs 30 min a game, killing Strome, Rieder and co. Too chicken to park Lucic.

  72. Bos8 says:

    Any team needs an influx of talent every year so this overcooking is a load of crap as in dither. No team remains static year after year. Big contracts for past glories are stupid. Lucic contract was bust the day he signed. Hall’s glory is only when he’s healthy, not often.

  73. McNuge93 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Zach Werenski (22) signs a 3 year$15 million deal.

    $4 million in each of the next two seasons, followed by $7 million in the last year of the deal in 2021-22.

    SoBlue Jackets must offer Werenski a qualifying offer of at least $7 million to retain his rights into 2022-23 as an RFA, esetntially making the contract a four-year deal worth $22 million.

    These shorter contracts seem to be becoming a trend.

    Very possible that Nurse’s next contract might also be a 3 yeat deal, which I wouldnt mind, unless he takes a big step forwqrd this year and becomes a legit top pairing dman.

    I don’t think this necessarily means Nurse will be 3 years as he is too close to free agency. I would rather see Nurse locked up long term even if it’s $6 or 7 mil, provided he takes another step forward this year.
    I predicted that some of these outstanding RFAs (Marner, Boeser, etc) may be forced to sign shorter deals at a little less AAV because teams are capped out. We will see in the next 2 or 3 weeks how it plays out.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Helping his P/G but not his 5 on 5 P/60……

    Which metric should be used?

    Of course, we can only use one, in isolation from all others…………….

    *grins*

  75. GMB3 says:

    Side: This.It seemed like a more nagging, relatively minor thing that was impacting him.

    ….??? Impingement in his hips?

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot:
    Bouchard couldn’t handle even strength minutes in the AHL at the end of last season defensively.Offensively he is fine.We all saw that.A bunch of meaningless NHL preseason games cannot erase the AHL games defensively at the end of last season.The right thing for Bouchard is to demonstrate that he is ready defensively in the AHL, regardless of anything that happens in preseason.Even injuries to others.

    If there are injuries, Lagesson, Jones, and Bear should get the first shot.

    I agree with the premise and do agree that he should be in the AHL to start the season – he struggled defensively on a couple of shifts against the Dube line on Saturday leading to HDSCs against. He simply needs to bit of time to develop that part of his game at the next level – maybe its 40 games, maybe its a year. I have no doubt he has NHL ready skills, many of them, skills the team could use but the deficient aspects of his game are important to his success and the team’s success moving forward.

    I can’t agree with your first line though as he didn’t receive many even strength minutes in the AHL playoffs until the final game when injuries forced them back to 6 d-men. He did fine that game too.

    He didn’t show he couldn’t handle but he also didn’t get the opportunity to prove that he can – that’s the next step.

  77. hunter1909 says:

    Tippett’s plan might as well be to turn the Oilers into the 1974-5 Philadelphia Flyers sans the violence… a team filled with defence minded checking demons, augmented by the best player in the world feeding one of the other best players in the world.

    I’ll be happy to watch this provided the team gets lots and lots of W’s.

    Rant over.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    jeetz:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    2) Persson: will get a shot but at 25 and no NHL experience, he needs to be sheltered, and hope he’s a wizard on PP: he gets passed by others on the farm

    3) Jones: If he has to play 3RHD with Russell, it’s not a great spot: he should be back and forth as this is his last year of waiver

    9) Lagesson: Blocked by the lower legit NHL D: Benning, Russel, and behind the shiny new ones

    I know a lot depends on training camp, but I can really see Russell being replaced early and perhaps traded. Lagesson may be the surprise of training camp as he has been developed properly and by many accounts is ready for NHL employment. It will be hard top turn away Jones as well.

    Nurse Larsson
    Klefbom Jones
    Benning Lagesson
    Persson

    I don’t think a Russell trade happens before the season starts and I’d be shocked if Tippett didn’t have Russell in the lineup on October 2 but, yes, the premise is something realistic.

    It is 100% imperative that Russell is traded for damn to close to $4M of cap space (no other return is needed – just the cap space) prior to next season (preferably prior to the draft). With Nurse’s new contract, there will be apx $18M of cap space but 12 players need to be signed (or added to the roster). We need that cap space and we should be just fine to move on from Russell with the incumbent pro prospects plus Sammy and Bouch with a year of pro.

    I am fine with the Russell trade happening tomorrow or any point in the season, even if Laggeson, Jones, etc. have not quite proven to be ready, I’ll take that risk.

    There is always a market for veteran type “glue” players like Russ heading towards the playoffs but the one more year on his contract makes it a tough in-season deal. Press-boxing him for rookies won’t make the trade any easier, in particular for a clean $4M.

    Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see Willie as 3LD to start the season but I can’t imagine Tippett sitting the vet unless/until he’s clearly passed by youth during the season.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    JohnChambers: What? Woodcroft had him playing ~5 minutes ES / game (dressing 7 defensemen) for a handful of AHL playoff games. Bouchard scored at both 5×5 and 5×4 in Very Limited minutes.

    You can’t propose that Bouchard was getting turnstiled defensively in the AHL because that version of history never happened. The fact is Woodcroft rode the defense corps who had gotten them there, and was able to utilize Bouchard appropriately.

    I think Bouchard should (and will) start the season as the #1 defenseman in Bakersfield. Contrary to your suggestion, I doubt he struggles with that assignment and should flourish once he adapts his game to the pro’s

    I agree with your assesment (although I’m not even sure he got 5 ES minutes/game until the last game when they played 6 d-men.

    With that said, I see the following to start the year in Bake (of course, subject to the 7 (or even 8) D on the Oilers:

    Lagesson/Bear
    Lowe/Bouchard
    Samorukov/Day

    Deharnais/Manning

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tippett just lost all credibility with his verbal as I heard the words “Malone is a solid player there” – in reference to 3C.

    Maybe he was talking about the AHL? He is an elite 2C at the AHL level and a solid 16th forward at the NHL level.

  81. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Tippett just lost all credibility

    Would you mind if I held you to this statement? That is, if Tippett takes this team into the playoffs?

  82. Dr. Taboggan says:

    hunter1909,

    Playoffs, that is funny.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter: Would you mind if I held you to this statement? That is, if Tippett takes this team into the playoffs?

    I was obviously kidding and we know Tippett isn’t seriously contemplating Malone for a 3rd line center role on the Oilers out of camp.

  84. hunter1909 says:

    This is funny.

  85. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Tippett just lost all credibility with his verbal as I heard the words “Malone is a solid player there” – in reference to 3C.

    Maybe he was talking about the AHL?He is an elite 2C at the AHL level and a solid 16th forward at the NHL level.

    Wow, even Godot is giving him until mid-October!

  86. leadfarmer says:

    GMB3: ….??? Impingement in his hips?

    That is a lot of question marks for a question

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hoping Yamamoto is cleared to play tomorrow evening.

    Looking forward to seeing Rodrigue in the net and hoping the Maksimov can show some of the offensive skill set!

  88. Scungilli Slushy says:

    With different timing Lagesson would be in with a good chance at 3 LD. He probably won’t make as much as the others and the Oilers will need cheap contracts on the third pair given the other prospects all seem to have more offense.

    Curious to see who moves and when.

  89. jp says:

    I’m curious about some details of LTIR as it regards to Brodziak and the possibility of a trade for someone like Zacha.

    My understanding is in order to claim LTIR a team needs to get as close as possible to the cap prior to day 1 of the season before placing the player on LTIR. Then they can claim a portion of the injured players salary to use on other players.

    My questions are:

    1) Does a team need to have a 23 man roster on the day of the LTIR calculation? Can it be 22? 24?

    2) Is the injured player included as part of that roster (I assume yes on this one. So Brodziak would be one of the 23 and have his cap contribute to getting closer to $81.5M).

  90. Gerta Rauss says:

    jp: 1) Does a team need to have a 23 man roster on the day of the LTIR calculation? Can it be 22? 24?

    Well, the maximum is 23 active players, so it can’t be 24

    I guess it could be 22, provided you can “find a home” for all your other players ie:assigned to junior/AHL/college..but most teams run a 23 man roster primarily because they can

    jp: 2) Is the injured player included as part of that roster (I assume yes on this one. So Brodziak would be one of the 23 and have his cap contribute to getting closer to $81.5M)

    His cap does count towards the total cap, yes, but his “active” status on the roster would be changed once he is assigned to IR or LTIR, so, no, Brodziak will not count toward the 23 man roster

    This Brodziak business is a real nuisance. It’s not fatal, but it’s bad news for a team that needs every nickel of cap space

  91. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Tippett just lost all credibility with his verbal as I heard the words “Malone is a solid player there” – in reference to 3C.

    Maybe he was talking about the AHL?He is an elite 2C at the AHL level and a solid 16th forward at the NHL level.

    He’s talking about the depth chart and Malone’s name popped in his head. It was a golf day. Surprised he didn’t say Martinook. 🙂

  92. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Tippett just lost all credibility with his verbal as I heard the words “Malone is a solid player there” – in reference to 3C.

    Maybe he was talking about the AHL?He is an elite 2C at the AHL level and a solid 16th forward at the NHL level.

    Well, to be fair he listed like 5 other players before Malone (Sheahan – Khaira – Haas – Marody etc.) in competition for the 3C spot, then specified that he sees it as Top 6 vs. Bottom 6, not 1-2-3-4 lines.

  93. SwedishPoster says:

    Bohologo:
    KHL watchers, here is one headline:
    MacTavish has a Problem. Spartak Destroyed Locomotive
    “MacTavish’s first KHL match a fiasco.”

    https://www.sovsport.ru/hockey/articles/2:916356

    MacT’s club is 0-2, but plays Sochi tonight:
    https://www.khl.ru/news/2019/09/10/455929.html

    Also, I think this Pavel Zacha KHL signing may be only a rumour:
    https://sport24.ru/news/hockey/2019-09-09-sushinskiy-pavel-zakha-v-avangarde-dazhe-ne-znayu-kto-eto

    Avangard President Sushinskiy said, “I don’t even know who that is!”

    How do you say ”rumour planted by agent” in Russian?

  94. ArmchairGM says:

    Since we’re dreaming… here are some “dreams” for this season:

    – Neal scores 25 goals / 45 points, recovers a bunch of value and is once again a tradeable commodity.
    – Nurse continues to be one of the best 5v5 defenseman scorers in the league (11th in the league over the past 2 seasons) but loses PP time to the youngsters, therefore his point total falls to 35 points… meaning his next contract isn’t as huge as some people think it might be. 6×6 or so.
    – Puljujarvi recovers his confidence in Finland’s Liiga and dominates that league, scoring 25 goals and 65 points – proving once again that he is a top talent. But he still wants a change of scenery in the NHL.
    – Lagesson, Jones, Bear and Persson all play 20+ games and prove their ability to play 3rd pairing comp at this level.
    – Bouchard also plays 20 games towards the end of the season, proves able to play 2nd pairing with Klefbom and run a power play. This makes Benning expendable, despite the fact that he established his bona-fides as a 2nd pairing defender in 2019-20.
    – Benson makes the team at Christmas and scores 20 points in 45 games in a 3rd line role.
    – Yamamoto plays the entire season in AHL and scores 30-40-70. He’s back on track as a late 1st round pick.
    – Chiasson scores 15 goals, is summer trade bait.
    – Smith sustains an injury, Starrett subs in and proves capable of handling backup duties, posting a .905 SvP in 15 starts.
    – Holland trades a bunch of bottom-sixers at the deadline, netting multiple mid / late picks in the 2020 draft.
    – The Oilers miss the playoffs but win a lottery ticket. I’d be happy with any of the top-3, but am especially enamored with Byfield. Which likely means we’ll need 2nd overall.

  95. jp says:

    Gerta Rauss: Well, the maximum is 23 active players, so it can’t be 24

    I guess it could be 22, provided you can “find a home” for all your other players ie:assigned to junior/AHL/college..but most teams run a 23 man roster primarily because they can

    His cap does count towards the total cap, yes, but his “active” status on the roster would be changed once he is assigned to IR or LTIR, so, no, Brodziak will not count toward the 23 man roster

    This Brodziak business is a real nuisance. It’s not fatal, but it’s bad news for a team that needs every nickel of cap space

    Thanks.

  96. frjohnk says:

    ArmchairGM: Nurse continues to be one of the best 5v5 defenseman scorers in the league

    If Nurse is placed in a shutdown role with Larsson as has been mentioned and this pair works out for the team in that spot, I dont see Nurse scoring close to what he did in the last couple of years. Because this pair will in a shutdown role, they will play less with McDavid ( and most likely Drai as well) which will then limit the amount of offense for Nurse

    Nurse put up 1.57 pts/60 in 1105 minutes in the last 2 years when with McDavid.
    He put up 0.66 pts/60 in 1999 minutes away from McDavid in the same time period

    Also of note, which you mentioned, the 1 PP Dman will get the points, Nurse has done well in this spot, Klefbom in the past has as well. Persson and/or Bouchard might take up some of those minutes I dont know. If Nurse does not play many PP1 minutes ( which would be good as someone else has most likely emerged) his overall total points will take a big dip from last year.

  97. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: The final ‘reasonable expectations’ installment looks at goalies, goal differential and the complete scoring totals for Edmonton in 2019-20.

    https://theathletic.com/1194210/2019/09/10/lowetide-can-mikko-koskinen-and-mike-smith-stop-enough-pucks-for-the-oilers/

  98. jp says:

    frjohnk: If Nurse is placed in a shutdown role with Larsson as has been mentioned and this pair works out for the team in that spot, I dont see Nurse scoring close to what he did in the last couple of years.Because this pair will in a shutdown role, they will play less with McDavid ( and most likely Drai as well) which will then limit the amount of offense for Nurse

    Nurse put up 1.57 pts/60 in 1105 minutes in the last 2 years when with McDavid.
    He put up 0.66 pts/60 in 1999 minutes away from McDavid in the same time period

    Also of note, which you mentioned, the 1 PP Dman will get the points, Nurse has done well in this spot, Klefbom in the past has as well.Persson and/or Bouchard might take up some of those minutes I dont know.If Nurse does not play many PP1 minutes ( which would be good as someone else has most likely emerged) his overall total points will take a big dip from last year.

    I agree Nurse will likely see a dip, but we should remember he scored 24 EVP in 17-18 in close to the role he’s likely to play (heavy minutes with Larsson), and 27 last season.

    It’s very likely he gets less opportunity on the PP but I’d still expect something in the 30 points range overall.

  99. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: The final ‘reasonable expectations’ installment looks at goalies, goal differential and the complete scoring totals for Edmonton in 2019-20.

    https://theathletic.com/1194210/2019/09/10/lowetide-can-mikko-koskinen-and-mike-smith-stop-enough-pucks-for-the-oilers/

    Thanks for the RE series LT, always great reads! I have to say I miss the Q and As with your alter ego though. I’d love to see a few of those in the next month.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    I’m curious about some details of LTIR as it regards to Brodziak and the possibility of a trade for someone like Zacha.

    My understanding is in order to claim LTIR a team needs to get as close as possible to the cap prior to day 1 of the season before placing the player on LTIR. Then they can claim a portion of the injured players salary to use on other players.

    My questions are:

    1) Does a team need to have a 23 man roster on the day of the LTIR calculation? Can it be 22? 24?

    2) Is the injured player included as part of that roster (I assume yes on this one. So Brodziak would be one of the 23 and have his cap contribute to getting closer to $81.5M).

    The amount of the LTIR relief cushion, that is, the amount the team can go over the upper cap limit, is determined at the time the player is placed on LTIR. The Oilers would need to be cap compliant on October, with a max 23 man roster including Brodiziak. They then place Brodz on LTIR and the amount of the cushion is calculated by taking Brodz’s yearly cap hit, $1.15M and subtracting the amount of cap space the team had. If the team had $1M in cap space, they could then go over the cap by $150K. If the team was right at the cap limit, to the dollar, they’d be able to go over the cap by $1.15M.

    Essentially, the OIlers will have no relief cushion unless they are within $1.15M of the cap on day 1 when Brodz is placed on LTIR.

    Once placed on LTIR, just like IR, the player comes off the 23 man roster but his cap hit stays and he stays on the 50.

    They can’t have a 24 man roster on October 1 – 23 is the max. 22 is fine, I think the min is 20 (not positive).

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: He’s talking about the depth chart and Malone’s name popped in his head. It was a golf day. Surprised he didn’t say Martinook.

    I know – I was mostly joking with my comment.

    O. Pouzar does know how to have fun……

  102. ArmchairGM says:

    frjohnk,

    Nurse only got 9 of his 41 points on the PP last year. I’m thinking Tippett will weight the defensive minutes towards this pairing but it won’t be the only thing they do, so I think there’s still opportunity to play with McDavid and get some scoring going. Remember that Nurse plays OT shifts with Leon and Connor, too.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Since we’re dreaming… here are some “dreams” for this season:

    – Neal scores 25 goals / 45 points, recovers a bunch of value and is once again a tradeable commodity.– Nurse continues to be one of the best 5v5 defenseman scorers in the league (11th in the league over the past 2 seasons) but loses PP time to the youngsters, therefore his point total falls to 35 points… meaning his next contract isn’t as huge as some people think it might be. 6×6 or so.– Puljujarvi recovers his confidence in Finland’s Liiga and dominates that league, scoring 25 goals and 65 points – proving once again that he is a top talent. But he still wants a change of scenery in the NHL.– Lagesson, Jones, Bear and Persson all play 20+ games and prove their ability to play 3rd pairing comp at this level.– Bouchard also plays 20 games towards the end of the season, proves able to play 2nd pairing with Klefbom and run a power play. This makes Benning expendable, despite the fact that he established his bona-fides as a 2nd pairing defender in 2019-20.– Benson makes the team at Christmas and scores 20 points in 45 games in a 3rd line role.– Yamamoto plays the entire season in AHL and scores 30-40-70. He’s back on track as a late 1st round pick.– Chiasson scores 15 goals, is summer trade bait.– Smith sustains an injury, Starrett subs in and proves capable of handling backup duties, posting a .905 SvP in 15 starts.– Holland trades a bunch of bottom-sixers at the deadline, netting multiple mid / late picks in the 2020 draft.– The Oilers miss the playoffs but win a lottery ticket. I’d be happy with any of the top-3, but am especially enamored with Byfield. Which likely means we’ll need 2nd overall.

    I’m in!

  104. Side says:

    ArmchairGM,

    You dream of Smith getting injured?

    Poor Smith…

  105. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: The amount of the LTIR relief cushion, that is, the amount the team can go over the upper cap limit, is determined at the time the player is placed on LTIR. The Oilers would need to be cap compliant on October, with a max 23 man roster including Brodiziak.They then place Brodz on LTIR and the amount of the cushion is calculated by taking Brodz’s yearly cap hit, $1.15M and subtracting the amount of cap space the team had. If the team had $1M in cap space, they could then go over the cap by $150K. If the team was right at the cap limit, to the dollar, they’d be able to go over the cap by $1.15M.

    Essentially, the OIlers will have no relief cushion unless they are within $1.15M of the cap on day 1 when Brodz is placed on LTIR.

    Once placed on LTIR, just like IR, the player comes off the 23 man roster but his cap hit stays and he stays on the 50.

    They can’t have a 24 man roster on October 1 – 23 is the max. 22 is fine, I think the min is 20 (not positive).

    Alright. I’m not sure whether this is also what Frjohnk was saying but this reads more clearly to me. Much appreciated.

  106. ArmchairGM says:

    Side:
    ArmchairGM,

    You dream of Smith getting injured?

    Poor Smith…

    😀

    Pretty sure he’ll get injured without my help!

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca