Autumn Leaves

The jobs are there, more than in most years. I’d guess there are two or three spots up front and a couple on defense that are available. There’s a window of opportunity here, before Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg arrive, for some really good prospects to establish themselves in the NHL.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions until Sept. 19 here.

  • New Lowetide: Can Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith stop enough pucks for the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Shutdown success by Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson is a key for the Oilers in 2019-20.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Even if he’s unsure about his return, Oilers’ Connor McDavid looks and sounds like his old self
  • Lowetide: RE 19-20: How can the Oilers’ bottom six close the gap in goal differential?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson address respective highs and lows as Oilers rookie camp begins
  • Jonathan Willis: Riley Sheahan is a prudent signing by the Oilers in more ways than one
  • Jonathan Willis: Did Milan Lucic take a shot at Connor McDavid’s leadership?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With Evan Bouchard as the headliner, here are the players to watch at Oilers rookie camp
  • Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
  • Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
  • Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

WE’RE UNDERWAY

There are prospects playing already and it’s probably time we wrote down what’s going on.

Ilya Konovalov (KHL) 2, 5.34 .859. MacT’s KHL career is off to a slow start but this is a quality goalie prospect. Expect a recovery from some ugly early stats.

Philip Broberg (Champions League) 4, 0-0-0. He played well, finished -1 but the scouting reports were good. He’s a sublime skater, big curio now is offense.

Maxim Denezhkin (MHL) 2, 1-0-1. Plays for the MHL Yaroslavl Lokomotiv, same team as Konovalov but at a lower level. Pronman ranked him, a nice writeup is here.

Patrik Siikanen (Intl Jr) 7, 0-1-1. Siikanen hasn’t played any Sm-Liiga games but has gotten into some international competition.

Jesse Puljujarvi (Champions League) 4, 2-2-4. Impressive showing in the pre-season tournament, he’s clearly quality.

Filip Berglund (Champions League) 4, 0-2-2. He showed well in the tournament, and faces a vital season as an Oilers prospect. If he has a good season in the SHL, he could get a contract.

CERTAIN OILERS (18)

I think the forwards are mostly complete, there are two openings and those probably land with Haas and Nygard, with Benson, Jurco, Currie and Gambardella lurking.

Lots of talk about Neal playing RW and Benson getting the No. 2 LW job, I’d love to see it but let’s see how this plays out. There’s just so much we don’t know, and perhaps someone rarely discussed (Jurco?) surprises. There’s always such a rush to form an opinion and take credit that I believe much is missed about how the sausage is made. Let it come to you. It’s better.

There are also two spots open on defense and that’s probably where most of the conversation will land in preseason. There are some nice prospects pushing, based on media reports Jones and Lagesson may have the inside edge. Here’s the thing about defensemen: You never know.

UNCERTAIN OILERS (15)

My five additions to the list above are Caleb Jones, Joel Persson, Gaetan Haas, Joakim Nygard and Colby Cave. For the record, I suspect all of these names will play in the NHL this coming season. I expect Evan Bouchard will start the season in Bakersfield but once he’s recalled there won’t be a return trip. He’s bona fide.

DISTANT BELLS (19)

Among the distant bells, I’ll count Samorukov, Manning, Starrett, Malone, McLeod and Puljujarvi as distant possibles. I’m going to be watching these goalies closely in 2019-20, Edmonton needs at least one to emerge.

ALEX VOLKOV

Rumored ask for JP (along with a pick coming to Edmonton) via Elliotte Friedman’s latest podcast. He has good speed and a range of skills, would be a plug-and-play or close. Corey Pronman likes him here.

  • NHLE at 17: 5.2 (MHL)
  • NHLE at 18: 9.5 (MHL)
  • NHLE at 19: 10.1 (MHL)
  • NHLE at 20: 23.0 (AHL)
  • NHLE at 21: 24.9 (AHL)

Tyler Benson’s NHL at 20 (37.3) is superior, Kailer Yamamoto’s at 20 (25.6) is in the range. I think he’s more ‘middle six’ than ‘top six’ based on the math.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on the Lowdown, we start at 10 TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will pop by to talk about Oilers training camp and some of the big roster battles. Andrew Peard will touch base on Oil Kings preseason battles and the season ahead. Jeff Krushell will join us to talk about Dave Dombrowski and these pennant races in mlb. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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154 Responses to "Autumn Leaves"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nuge was on Friedman-Marek’s podcast.

    As per Oiler Nation:

    Friedman also asked whether he’s had a face-to-face conversation with Ken Holland yet. Nuge hasn’t, but says that he has spoken to him on the phone and believes that his experience and rational is going to be great for the team and will be that “steady guy who isn’t going to be pressured into making any rash decisions anytime soon; he’s one of those guys who knows what he’s doing, he’s confident in what he can do and that’s a huge thing for us”.

    Many profess that the team needs a massive uptick this year or Nuge will essentially not re-sign. Seems he’s very much on board with a GM “no making rash decisions” and with an eye to building the true contender. He mentioned a few times how great he thinks Holland is going to be.

    Seems to me a guy player this is smart enough to see the ultimate plan and isn’t going to want out right when things are likely starting a material uptick.

    Pure assumption by me but I suspect Connor McDavid feels similar.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    The forward chart would look so much better if Benson could be a legit 3LW/2LW – we just don’t know.

    It would also look much better if Marody could be a legit 3C – seems a bit less likely than the above but I can still hope, for now.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Shane Starrett is a distant bell but he is one groin tweak away from the NHL.

    I assume he’ll see some NHL time this year as an injury call-up – whether that gets him an NHL start or not, I don’t know.

    What is Starret gets called up as an injury replacement and never sees the AHL again? That happens to other team, could it happen to the Oilers?

    Is goalie like defence where sometimes you see a player that is just better and more productive at the NHL level? I don’t think its all that unusual for a d-man to have better box cars in the NHL than the AHL, likely due to playing with more talent and with more structure.

    Does that apply to tenders?

  4. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Re Pool. Let it go Kinger. But I can’t quit you baby:

    – When LT says Pools quality and I read this, I weep.

    Compare and contrast:

    “”We’ve been communicating even these last few days,” Krueger said Monday. “I know that it’s going to be fun to work with a player with that skill and ability. I have nothing but excitement for working with him. I know there’s a lot of potential there that’s still untapped, and it’s up to me and the coaches to find out what that is”” (re: Rasmus)

    ““I’m not trading anybody because they want to be traded. But if we can find something that works for everybody, I’ll look at it. If not, I’m not doing anything… At the end of the day, if you can do a deal that makes sense for the Edmonton Oilers, you do it. If you can’t, you go over (to Europe) and watch him play, and hopefully he scores a lot of goals over there.”

    “It’s too bad it had to go this far down the path,” said Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, during at interview at the Oilers golf tournament. “He’s a talented hockey player and still a young guy. He has all the tools, but confidence goes a long way in any sport. “You could see him lose that every once in a while and get frustrated with himself. For his sake, I hope things work out, but it’s too bad things had to go this far.”

  5. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    “he’s one of those guys who knows what he’s doing”

    A scalding hot burn on Chiarelli coming from Nuge.

  6. dykema8 says:

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Jurco has the skill and ability to add some skill to the bottom 6. He’s gonna surprise at training camp.

  7. Side says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’m struggling to see a comparison, Kinger. I see that Krueger is talking about Dhalin, Holland is talking about making a move only if it makes sense for the Oilers, and Nuge identifying (JP?) has confidence issues.

  8. jp says:

    Bohologo,

    Why would this be collusion? And why would it be necessary? Why wouldn’t the teams just trade the players, contingent on each agreeing to a deal with their new club?

  9. cowboy bill says:

    As usual Colby Cave gets no love .

    Watch out for the rise of the Caveman .

  10. hunter1909 says:

    IT’S BACK!!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON FREE TO ENTER + PLAY

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

  11. cowboy bill says:

    Also Tomas Jurco played well with Riley Sheahan in their Detroit days . A line with Granlund , Sheahan & Jurco might pay dividends . Sam Gagner is a luxury the Oilers could live without .

    Then place Cave with Khaira & Archibald .
    And place Nygard and Haas in the line up . Presto !

  12. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Side:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’m struggling to see a comparison, Kinger.I see that Krueger is talking about Dhalin, Holland is talking about making a move only if it makes sense for the Oilers, and Nuge identifying (JP?) has confidence issues.

    – No it’s Rasmus. Disgruntled D asked for a trade. Lots of tools, some deficiencies. A little further on than Pool (4 seasons in). Dealt with gong show in Buffalo.

    – Their approach dealing with disgruntled talented flawed player is better IMO.

  13. Primetime says:

    Side:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’m struggling to see a comparison, Kinger.I see that Krueger is talking about Dhalin, Holland is talking about making a move only if it makes sense for the Oilers, and Nuge identifying (JP?) has confidence issues.

    Agree, not really seeing what your point of those 3 quotes are Kinger.

    On the other hand, yet another player, saying they like JP and see the talent, but that he needs to figure out his OWN issues to progress. We like to guess from the outside, but from what little we hear from the inside, they are all saying that JP needs to grow up a bit, and they are not blaming team/staff for his development. Maybe we should believe the people who are actually involved….

  14. jp says:

    Bohologo,

    This reminds how vulnerable the Oilers are to an offer sheet on Puljujarvi though.

    If a team was willing to sign him to a 3rd round compensation offer sheet ($1.395M-2.113M) Holland would have to do some maneuvering to be able to match (at least on the higher end). He’s surely expecting to get more than a 3rd in return at this point so not matching wouldn’t be particularly palatable either.

  15. Primetime says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – No it’s Rasmus.Disgruntled D asked for a trade.Lots of tools, some deficiencies.A little further on that Pool (4 seasons in).Dealt with gong show in Buffalo.I just like prefer their approach better.

    “Our conversations with him have been positive,” added General Manager Jason Botterill said ” I think ‘Risto’ has always been someone who comes to camp in extremely good shape and I think there’s a good deal of adjustment for all of our players with a new head coach trying to put together exactly what coaches want, what they want from a systems standpoint and where they fit in with the group. I’m sure those conversations will go on with Risto and the entire team.”

    Does that sound remotely like the situation that Holland is dealing with? You like Buffalo’s approach better, but I like the players/agent approach better too. He is showing up to camp and talking to the new head coach to see how/if things might be different

  16. Wilde says:

    Just to clear up some confusion about Bouchard’s AHL time:

    He air-dropped in after game two of the series against the Colorado Eagles that the Condors would win 3-1.

    In those two games, he was sheltered as 7D swapping in for Day beside Stanton, like so:

    Lages – Jones
    Lowe – Bear
    Stanton – Day Bouchard

    He went 9-4 in CF-CA in the first game and 10-6 in the second.

    In the substantially more difficult (injuries and qual comp) series against the Gulls, the first game had the same D deployment but he saw little time compared to others as it went three and 1/4 overtime periods. 5-9 CF-CA.

    In game two, Day sat and Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing. 28-16 CF-CA.

    Game three vs the gulls, he was back to 7D. 11-11. Game four the same, 7-14.

    Game five he played third pairing solid, and it went to double-OT. 28-17 CF-CA. Kulevich was in for an injured Bear, and the Lowe – Kulevich pairing played poorly enough by my eye for more shifts to go to Stanton – Bouch.

    Game six (series over, Condors eliminated) Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing again and if I may editorialise, this was his best game by far and he was one of the Condors’ best players – this was made easier by Currie, Gambardella and Malone clearly playing through injuries and Bear being out.
    A pretty stunning 24-9 CF-CA output in an elimination game.

    In a game where the total CF-CA was 45-43 Condors. Obviously he was fed opportunities, but as I am always hammering on, the varying levels at which different players kill those minutes matters a lot.

    Plus, teenager.

    Also, 40.16% primary shot contribution share*, to the next-closest 29.69% – I will say that the Condors passed to him like it was his birthday every day, which I’m not a fan of in defensemen but if you’re into point plays there’s that. I think it’s different for him, but Burns is the only guy making that work in the bigs imo. If it was slanted more to shot assists I’d be more excited about it, and if they have him underutilising his vision for back-door plays in the service of pure shooting I’ll be extremely annoying about it all fall, fair warning.

    The rest of the indie stats look like this:

    iCF/GP – 3.88, just a hair below Lowe’s 3.90 among regulars. For other players who had small samples, Gravel had 5.75 in his 4-game spot.

    iCFA/GP – 2.25, just a hair below deity Jones’ 2.23. Other small samples weren’t close. By the way, again, I only track primary assists.

    *shot contribution % is how many of the Condors shots-for the player was on the ice for that they either took or had the primary assist on.

    [e: also his GF-GA was 6-3]

  17. defmn says:

    Sounds like the Zacha saga has been resolved for now.

    Elliotte Friedman
    ‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC

    As reported here, word from the Czech Republic is Pavel Zacha and NJ are in agreement on an extension. Not official yet, but headed in that direction

  18. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Primetime,

    – Yeah I agree: it’s too bad. The difference in approach the teams have taken (and players) is stark

    – Kruger is really good at developing relationships. His euro “roots” in professional sport give him street cred as well with Europeans He reached out a lot in off-season, tried to patch things up. Good verbal. Better outcome

  19. Wilde says:

    ALL NUMBERS 5-ON-5 SORRY I ALWAYS FORGET THAT

  20. Harpers Hair says:

    Bohologo,

    Friedman reporting Devils and Zacha closing in on a deal.

  21. Side says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – No it’s Rasmus.Disgruntled D asked for a trade.Lots of tools, some deficiencies.A little further on than Pool (4 seasons in).Dealt with gong show in Buffalo.

    – Their approach dealing with disgruntled talented flawed player is better IMO.

    OHhhhhh..

    Yeah I don’t know, there’s so much going on behind the scenes I don’t know if I could say one team handles the situation better than the other.

    I mean, if Ken spoke to JP and his agent in one of the many conversations and they told him they would never play for the Oilers again or something, there’s no real point in Holland pumping his tires at all.

    There’s “disgruntled” and there’s “i’m leaving and there’s nothing you can do to stop me” and I feel JP may be the latter…

  22. jp says:

    Wilde,

    Very cool, thanks for this.

    Do you have Bouchard’s total CF-CA and the teams CF-CA in those games? (I can total the former from what you posted but not the latter, and I guess you’ve already got the Bouch totals too).

  23. Wilde says:

    jp:
    Wilde,

    Very cool, thanks for this.

    Do you have Bouchard’s total CF-CA and the teams CF-CA in those games? (I can total the former from what you posted but not the latter, and I guess you’ve already got the Bouch totals too).

    yeah for sure, warning quick math

    G3 VS EAGLES : 69 – 38

    G4 VS EAGLES : 57 – 39

    G1 VS GULLS : 103 – 134 [remember tracking this till 4am]

    G2 VS GULLS : 77 – 57

    G3 VS GULLS : 67 – 45

    G4 VS GULLS : 44 – 37

    G5 VS GULLS : 96 – 87

    G6 VS GULLS : 45 – 43

    Bouchard’s total was 122 – 86 (58.65%), team was 558 – 480 (53.76%).

    Again, clearly juiced deployment but whether or not you take that and run with it (and the extent to which you do) matters.

  24. PinkSocks says:

    hunter1909:
    IT’S BACK!!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON FREE TO ENTER + PLAY

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

    Hunter: Oilers will have 95 points, JP will have 6 goals.

  25. Pouzar says:

    cowboy bill:
    Also Tomas Jurco played well with Riley Sheahan in their Detroit days .

    Now you’ve done it….

  26. jp says:

    Wilde,

    Thanks. And agreed there are caveats but still impressive.

  27. McNuge93 says:

    It would be great if someone can surprise and push at least one of Kass or Chiasson out of the top 2 RW spots. Maybe Jurco, Nygard or Benson push Neal over to RW. And if Neal and Chiasson are on the same line, Nuge will be entering the the Ozone and those two will still be back at centre ice.

    If, say,our defence prospects really disappoint does anybody have any ideas of free agent Ds that could be PTOed just in case?

  28. defmn says:

    jp:
    Wilde,

    Thanks. And agreed there are caveats but still impressive.

    What’s the over/under on 30 games down in Bakersfield for Bouchard?

  29. Woogie63 says:

    Should Connor, Leon, Darrell and RNH hop on one of Daryl’s planes and go have a piece of pizza with Jesse?

  30. Material Elvis says:

    Woogie63:
    Should Connor, Leon, Darrell and RNH hop on one of Daryl’s planes and go have a piece of pizza with Jesse?

    I’d prefer if they stay in Edmonton and ignore distractions. Time to focus on the guys who want to be here.

  31. defmn says:

    Woogie63:
    Should Connor, Leon, Darrell and RNH hop on one of Daryl’s planes and go have a piece of pizza with Jesse?

    Back in July it was reported that McDavid had contacted him. Crickets from everybody else.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maksimov and McLeod will remain a pair for tonight’s game – still thinking that’s going to be something we see all year long in the Bake. They’ll be joined by Starrett to start the game.

  33. Coiler says:

    Perhaps it’s time we just put the whole Jesse thing to bed until something concrete has happened. He’s not coming to training camp and hence, shouldn’t even be in the discussion.

  34. defmn says:

    I found this comment by Tippet about how he sees his bottom six being organized quite interesting.

    “I don’t look at it as a number three, I look at it as we have a top six and a bottom six and we might have a couple of our bottom two lines geared a bit different – one’s maybe a little heavier line and one maybe a little bit quicker that has the ability to score.”

    There are so many new guys in the mix I am reluctant to speculate on who might go where but I am always a fan of players being given a role so they know what is expected of them.

  35. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Shane Starrett is a distant bell but he is one groin tweak away from the NHL.

    I assume he’ll see some NHL time this year as an injury call-up – whether that gets him an NHL start or not, I don’t know.

    What is Starret gets called up as an injury replacement and never sees the AHL again?That happens to other team, could it happen to the Oilers?

    Is goalie like defence where sometimes you see a player that is just better and more productive at the NHL level? I don’t think its all that unusual for a d-man to have better box cars in the NHL than the AHL, likely due to playing with more talent and with more structure.

    Does that apply to tenders?

    I’m 100% certain that Starrett will get some NHL starts this year. Injuries happen to old goalies, they just do, and Starrett is the only realistic recall option at this point. I’m pretty sure Tippett won’t want to overwork Koskinen this year, so if Smith goes down Starrett will get every 3rd or 4th start, depending on the schedule.

  36. defmn says:

    Yamamoto not taking part.

    Lines at Tuesday’s morning skate appeared as follows:

    Forwards

    Benson – Marody – Hebig
    B. Starrett – McLeod – Maksimov
    Safin – Iacobellis – Lavoie
    Vesey – Stukel – Keeler

    Defence

    Samorukov – Bouchard
    Cap – Day
    Bellamy – Desharnais

    Goalies

    Rodrigue
    Skinner

  37. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: The forward chart would look so much better if Benson could be a legit 3LW/2LW – we just don’t know.

    He will be, just not this year. I’d like to see him get the call halfway through the season and hold his own on the 3rd line. If he does well I’m sure he’ll be an option for 2LW the following season.

  38. ArmchairGM says:

    cowboy bill: Also Tomas Jurco played well with Riley Sheahan in their Detroit days

    This was debunked: they only played well together when Tatar was with them. Pretty sure I know who was driving offense on that line, and it wasn’t our guys.

  39. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde,

    Amazing work – thanks! Do you have any idea what his eTOI would be for those games? I came away with the impression that his per-60’s were off the charts good.

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    Coiler:
    Perhaps it’s time we just put the whole Jesse thing to bed until something concrete has happened. He’s not coming to training camp and hence, shouldn’t even be in the discussion.

    Jesse who?

  41. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    Just to clear up some confusion about Bouchard’s AHL time:

    He air-dropped in after game two of the series against the Colorado Eagles that the Condors would win 3-1.

    In those two games, he was sheltered as 7D swapping in for Day beside Stanton, like so:

    Lages – Jones
    Lowe – Bear
    Stanton – DayBouchard

    He went 9-4 in CF-CA in the first game and 10-6 in the second.

    In the substantially more difficult (injuries and qual comp) series against the Gulls, the first game had the same D deployment but he saw little time compared to others as it went three and 1/4 overtime periods. 5-9 CF-CA.

    In game two, Day sat and Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing. 28-16 CF-CA.

    Game three vs the gulls, he was back to 7D. 11-11. Game four the same, 7-14.

    Game five he played third pairing solid, and it went to double-OT. 28-17 CF-CA. Kulevich was in for an injured Bear, and the Lowe – Kulevich pairing played poorly enough by my eye for more shifts to go to Stanton – Bouch.

    Game six (series over, Condors eliminated) Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing again and if I may editorialise, this was his best game by far and he was one of the Condors’ best players – this was made easier by Currie, Gambardella and Malone clearly playing through injuries and Bear being out.
    A pretty stunning 24-9 CF-CA output in an elimination game.

    In a game where the total CF-CA was 45-43 Condors. Obviously he was fed opportunities, but as I am always hammering on, the varying levels at which different players kill those minutes matters a lot.

    Plus, teenager.

    Also, 40.16% primary shot contribution share*, to the next-closest 29.69% – I will say that the Condors passed to him like it was his birthday every day, which I’m not a fan of in defensemen but if you’re into point plays there’s that. I think it’s different for him, but Burns is the only guy making that work in the bigs imo. If it was slanted more to shot assists I’d be more excited about it, and if they have him underutilising his vision for back-door plays in the service of pure shooting I’ll be extremely annoying about it all fall, fair warning.

    The rest of the indie stats look like this:

    iCF/GP – 3.88, just a hair below Lowe’s 3.90 among regulars. For other players who had small samples, Gravel had 5.75 in his 4-game spot.

    iCFA/GP – 2.25, just a hair below deity Jones’ 2.23. Other small samples weren’t close. By the way, again, I only track primary assists.

    *shot contribution % is how many of the Condors shots-for the player was on the ice for that they either took or had the primary assist on.

    [e: also his GF-GA was 6-3]

    Good stuff!! Where did you get the numbers?

  42. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn:
    Sounds like the Zacha saga has been resolved for now.

    Elliotte Friedman
    ‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC

    As reported here, word from the Czech Republic is Pavel Zacha and NJ are in agreement on an extension. Not official yet, but headed in that direction

    3 years at $2.25M per.

  43. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Wilde,

    Amazing work – thanks! Do you have any idea what his eTOI would be for those games? I came away with the impression that his per-60’s were off the charts good.

    No, the closest I could get is the amount of shifts he played in which a shot event occurred, because of the way I track games

    All of my per hour metrics are from taking the prospect-stats eTOI data and applying it to the players’ regular season counting statistics as long as I have 70+% of their total GP tracked which is true for most players

    Eventually I’m going to go through the guy’s old blog post on how he got his estimates because I actually should be able to get a superior set of estimates because I have more total event data to use as a proxy if I’m reading his methodology correctly, we’ll see

    It’s definitely jumped up the to-do list ever since his site went offline after the Kings hired him

    JimmyV1965: Good stuff!! Where did you get the numbers?

    I watch (most) Bakersfield games and track who takes each shot, who assists it, and who was on the ice for it

  44. Darth Tu says:

    Wilde: No, the closest I could get is the amount of shifts he played in which a shot event occurred, because of the way I track games

    All of my per hour metrics are from taking the prospect-stats eTOI data and applying it to the players’ regular season counting statistics as long as I have 70+% of their total GP tracked which is true for most players

    Eventually I’m going to go through the guy’s old blog post on how he got his estimates because I actually should be able to get a superior set of estimates because I have more total event data to use as a proxy if I’m reading his methodology correctly, we’ll see

    It’s definitely jumped up the to-do list ever since his site went offline after the Kings hired him

    I watch (most) Bakersfield games and track who takes each shot, who assists it, and who was on the ice for it

    Your work is a great resource. I really enjoy the breakdown of the Condors – I try to see as many games as I can, so like comparing my “eye test” to your stats breakdown.

    Go Condors! Go Oilers!

  45. defmn says:

    ArmchairGM: 3 years at $2.25M per.

    Yup. But continuing a trend this summer with RFA signings of back loading them so as to increase the qualifying offer on the next contract. Werenski did the same thing the other day.

    //Zacha will still be a restricted free agent when the deal expires, but will be arbitration-eligible. The full breakdown of the deal is as follows:

    2019-20: $1.75MM
    2020-21: $2.0MM
    2021-22: $3.0MM

    Once again it is important to note the back-loaded nature of an RFA contract, meaning the Devils will be forced to issue a $3MM qualifying offer in order to keep Zacha’s rights at the end of the deal. At that point he would be just one year from unrestricted free agency, meaning he could essentially turn this into a four-year, $9.75MM deal and walk himself right onto the open market if he chooses. //

    Smart negotiating by the agents.

  46. Material Elvis says:

    Wilde:
    Just to clear up some confusion about Bouchard’s AHL time:

    He air-dropped in after game two of the series against the Colorado Eagles that the Condors would win 3-1.

    In those two games, he was sheltered as 7D swapping in for Day beside Stanton, like so:

    Lages – Jones
    Lowe – Bear
    Stanton – DayBouchard

    He went 9-4 in CF-CA in the first game and 10-6 in the second.

    In the substantially more difficult (injuries and qual comp) series against the Gulls, the first game had the same D deployment but he saw little time compared to others as it went three and 1/4 overtime periods. 5-9 CF-CA.

    In game two, Day sat and Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing. 28-16 CF-CA.

    Game three vs the gulls, he was back to 7D. 11-11. Game four the same, 7-14.

    Game five he played third pairing solid, and it went to double-OT. 28-17 CF-CA. Kulevich was in for an injured Bear, and the Lowe – Kulevich pairing played poorly enough by my eye for more shifts to go to Stanton – Bouch.

    Game six (series over, Condors eliminated) Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing again and if I may editorialise, this was his best game by far and he was one of the Condors’ best players – this was made easier by Currie, Gambardella and Malone clearly playing through injuries and Bear being out.
    A pretty stunning 24-9 CF-CA output in an elimination game.

    In a game where the total CF-CA was 45-43 Condors. Obviously he was fed opportunities, but as I am always hammering on, the varying levels at which different players kill those minutes matters a lot.

    Plus, teenager.

    Also, 40.16% primary shot contribution share*, to the next-closest 29.69% – I will say that the Condors passed to him like it was his birthday every day, which I’m not a fan of in defensemen but if you’re into point plays there’s that. I think it’s different for him, but Burns is the only guy making that work in the bigs imo. If it was slanted more to shot assists I’d be more excited about it, and if they have him underutilising his vision for back-door plays in the service of pure shooting I’ll be extremely annoying about it all fall, fair warning.

    The rest of the indie stats look like this:

    iCF/GP – 3.88, just a hair below Lowe’s 3.90 among regulars. For other players who had small samples, Gravel had 5.75 in his 4-game spot.

    iCFA/GP – 2.25, just a hair below deity Jones’ 2.23. Other small samples weren’t close. By the way, again, I only track primary assists.

    *shot contribution % is how many of the Condors shots-for the player was on the ice for that they either took or had the primary assist on.

    [e: also his GF-GA was 6-3]

    Thanks again for putting in the work to track all of this. Incredible!

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    KingerOilredux:
    – Re Pool.Let it go Kinger.But I can’t quit you baby:

    – When LT says Pools quality and I read this, I weep.

    Compare and contrast:

    “”We’ve been communicating even these last few days,” Krueger said Monday. “I know that it’s going to be fun to work with a player with that skill and ability. I have nothing but excitement for working with him. I know there’s a lot of potential there that’s still untapped, and it’s up to me and the coaches to find out what that is”” (re: Rasmus)

    ““I’m not trading anybody because they want to be traded. But if we can find something that works for everybody, I’ll look at it. If not, I’m not doing anything… At the end of the day, if you can do a deal that makes sense for the Edmonton Oilers, you do it. If you can’t, you go over (to Europe) and watch him play, and hopefully he scores a lot of goals over there.”

    I fail to see any logical comparison between:

    – a quote by a new head coach who is about to coach a recently drafted 1st overall, potential generational type d-man, who had a really really really good rookie season and is under contract with the team and seemingly has absolutely no issues with the team or anything related to the team

    and

    – a quote by a general manager who has a 4th year pro player who has failed to live up to his draft pedigree (with team culpability) and regressed and who the GM has previously mentioned he would welcome back to the organization even after the player mentioned he doesn’t want to play there and then the player subsequently mentions, various times, in various contexts, that he refuses to play for the team and will not sign a contract with the team

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Konovalov gets in the win column – stopping 30 of 31 in a 2-1 win.

    MacT with his first KHL win!

  49. ArmchairGM says:

    Faulk for Kase looks like a thing.

  50. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn: Yup. But continuing a trend this summer with RFA signings of back loading them so as to increase the qualifying offer on the next contract. Werenski did the same thing the other day.

    //Zacha will still be a restricted free agent when the deal expires, but will be arbitration-eligible. The full breakdown of the deal is as follows:

    2019-20: $1.75MM 2020-21: $2.0MM 2021-22: $3.0MM

    Once again it is important to note the back-loaded nature of an RFA contract, meaning the Devils will be forced to issue a $3MM qualifying offer in order to keep Zacha’s rights at the end of the deal. At that point he would be just one year from unrestricted free agency, meaning he could essentially turn this into a four-year, $9.75MM deal and walk himself right onto the open market if he chooses. //

    Smart negotiating by the agents.

    Yes, but the Devils should know enough about the player at that point to know whether its worthwhile keeping him or not. So it cuts both ways. They still have an asset to trade after Y3.

  51. Cassandra says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Faulk for Kase looks like a thing.

    Carolina is quickly becoming the best run team in the league. It really is unbelievable how they come out on the right side of every single deal.

  52. Lowetide says:

    Forgot to post this in the article:

    New for The Athletic: The ‘reasonable expectations’ series final chapter as we look at goalies, goal differential and the entire stats pack. Can Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith stop enough pucks for the Oilers?

    https://theathletic.com/1194210/2019/09/10/lowetide-can-mikko-koskinen-and-mike-smith-stop-enough-pucks-for-the-oilers/

  53. ArmchairGM says:

    Cassandra: Carolina is quickly becoming the best run team in the league.It really is unbelievable how they come out on the right side of every single deal.

    This started when they hired Tlusky. Take note, Oilers.

  54. Jayamania says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Looks like he didn’t play.

  55. Victoria Oil says:

    Wilde:
    Just to clear up some confusion about Bouchard’s AHL time:

    He air-dropped in after game two of the series against the Colorado Eagles that the Condors would win 3-1.

    In those two games, he was sheltered as 7D swapping in for Day beside Stanton, like so:

    Lages – Jones
    Lowe – Bear
    Stanton – DayBouchard

    He went 9-4 in CF-CA in the first game and 10-6 in the second.

    In the substantially more difficult (injuries and qual comp) series against the Gulls, the first game had the same D deployment but he saw little time compared to others as it went three and 1/4 overtime periods. 5-9 CF-CA.

    In game two, Day sat and Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing. 28-16 CF-CA.

    Game three vs the gulls, he was back to 7D. 11-11. Game four the same, 7-14.

    Game five he played third pairing solid, and it went to double-OT. 28-17 CF-CA. Kulevich was in for an injured Bear, and the Lowe – Kulevich pairing played poorly enough by my eye for more shifts to go to Stanton – Bouch.

    Game six (series over, Condors eliminated) Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing again and if I may editorialise, this was his best game by far and he was one of the Condors’ best players – this was made easier by Currie, Gambardella and Malone clearly playing through injuries and Bear being out.
    A pretty stunning 24-9 CF-CA output in an elimination game.

    In a game where the total CF-CA was 45-43 Condors. Obviously he was fed opportunities, but as I am always hammering on, the varying levels at which different players kill those minutes matters a lot.

    Plus, teenager.

    Also, 40.16% primary shot contribution share*, to the next-closest 29.69% – I will say that the Condors passed to him like it was his birthday every day, which I’m not a fan of in defensemen but if you’re into point plays there’s that. I think it’s different for him, but Burns is the only guy making that work in the bigs imo. If it was slanted more to shot assists I’d be more excited about it, and if they have him underutilising his vision for back-door plays in the service of pure shooting I’ll be extremely annoying about it all fall, fair warning.

    The rest of the indie stats look like this:

    iCF/GP – 3.88, just a hair below Lowe’s 3.90 among regulars. For other players who had small samples, Gravel had 5.75 in his 4-game spot.

    iCFA/GP – 2.25, just a hair below deity Jones’ 2.23. Other small samples weren’t close. By the way, again, I only track primary assists.

    *shot contribution % is how many of the Condors shots-for the player was on the ice for that they either took or had the primary assist on.

    [e: also his GF-GA was 6-3]

    Excellent analysis Wilde. Almost a 59% CF in 8 games by my count.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    dykema:
    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Jurco has the skill and ability to add some skill to the bottom 6. He’s gonna surprise at training camp.

    I have had this thought in my head as well but I have been fooled with this type of addition in the past.

    I’ll remain guarded but am not discounting Jurco as a roster option.

  57. Yeti says:

    Cassandra: Carolina is quickly becoming the best run team in the league.It really is unbelievable how they come out on the right side of every single deal.

    They’ve also drafted half of Finland, which makes them my favourite prospect pool anywhere in the league.

  58. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I fail to see any logical comparison between:

    – a quote by a new head coach who is about to coach a recently drafted 1st overall, potential generational type d-man, who had a really really really good rookie season and is under contract with the team and seemingly has absolutely no issues with the team or anything related to the team

    and

    You are thinking of the WRONG Rasmus.

  59. godot10 says:

    Jayamania:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Looks like he didn’t play.

    Two games and MacT has destroyed another OIlers goaltender.

  60. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    godot10: Two games and MacT has destroyed another OIlers goaltender.

    HA!
    Seriously. They just can’t get out of their own way…

  61. Ryan says:

    Cassandra: Carolina is quickly becoming the best run team in the league.It really is unbelievable how they come out on the right side of every single deal.

    Maybe they listen to Erik Tulsky.

    Tulsky was on fire when he used to blog for SBN. I wouldn’t compare him to Ferrari, but certainly that type of innovative thinker.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    cowboybill:
    As usual Colby Cave gets no love .

    Watch out for the rise of the Caveman .

    I have nothing against Colby Cave but I don’t consider him anything more than a “dime a dozen tweener” – a 16th forward.

    If Colby Cave is on the team and in the lineup in opening night, the bottom 6 is simply not good enough.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    cowboybill:
    Also Tomas Jurco played well with Riley Sheahan in their Detroit days . A line with Granlund , Sheahan & Jurco might pay dividends . Sam Gagner is a luxury the Oilers could live without .

    I was all over the Jurco/Sheahan history until this community bursted the bubble by providing info that is was all Tatar zoomed.

    Now Holland needs to aquire Tatar……

  64. John Chambers says:

    Wilde:
    ALL NUMBERS 5-ON-5 SORRY I ALWAYS FORGET THAT

    Very quality post.

    Woodcroft did a great job integrating Bouchard into the lineup. I imagine his minutes will be similarly incremented when he graduates into the NHL.

  65. Yeti says:

    cowboy bill: As usual Colby Cave gets no love .

    Loana LOVE caveman.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Disappointing that Yamamoto still isn’t cleared – as long as he’s ready for main camp – he needs to “start on time” with the Condors this year.

    Benson – Marody – Hebig
    B. Starrett – McLeod – Maksimov
    Safin – Iacobellis – Lavoie
    Vesey – Stukel – Keeler

    Samorukov – Bouchard
    Cap – Day
    Bellamy – Desharnais

    Rodrigue
    Skinner

    Out: Yamamoto, De Jong

  67. Wolfpack says:

    Colby Cave – there is a smart Captain Caveman reference in there somewhere, but none of the kids on this blog will know what the heck this old fogey is talking about.

    In watching Maskimov highlights on The YouTube, love the shot but what I really like to see is the consistent lack of over-reaction when scoring. I love seeing kids act like they’ve been there before. It sends a message to everyone watching – yeah, I’m used to this, and there’s a lot more on the way. It’s the anti-Yakupov. I know some people love the celebrations but i would rather see my guy score, quick congrats from the teammates then grace the opponent’s bench with a cold stare that says this is just the beginning…
    . .

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    McNuge:

    Maybe Jurco, Nygard or Benson push Neal over to RW.

    This is what I’m hoping for – Neal is more comfortable on the right side with a left shot center and his bounce back to top 6 scoring rates is important for the team – I hope Tippett is trying to do what he can to give Neal the best chance of succeeding.

    I do NOT want to see:

    Neal/Nuge/Chiasson

  69. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Is Jurco not essentially this year’s Ty Rattie?

    Nygard could be the same, he just doesn’t have the track record on N American soil.

    Anyone potentially hitting the waiver wire this year?

  70. Lowetide says:

    Forwards

    Benson – Marody – Hebig
    B. Starrett – McLeod – Maksimov
    Safin – Iacobellis – Lavoie
    Vesey – Stukel – Keeler

    Defence

    Samorukov – Bouchard
    Cap – Day
    Bellamy – Desharnais

    Goalies

    Rodrigue
    Skinner

    Out: Yamamoto, De Jong

    via Oilers

  71. rickithebear says:

    Like every year:
    I look at specific unit roles for the team based on last season.

    I took top 12 fwds (372) ev min (>490min) and looked at Off FO ZS %
    #12 fwd ( bott 31) <36.29%
    #11 fwd (bott 62) <41.52%
    #10 fwd (bott 93). <44.54%
    #9 fwd ( bott 124) <47.19%

    18/19
    ————————— bottom 4 fwd 47.19%
    RNH 46.37%
    Khaira 45.48%, top 40 PK fwd
    ————————— bottom 3 fwd 44.54%
    Reider 43.92%
    Cave 43.03%, top 50 pkga/60 rate in BOS
    Granlund 41.56%, 10 evg
    ————————— bottom 2 fwd 41.52%
    Jurco 39.02%, 29gm 6evg, top 20 1.02 evg/60
    Archibald 38.96%, top 20 pk fwd, 12 evg
    Gagner 38.39%, 25gm 5 evg, .95 evg/60
    ————————— bottom 1 fwd 36.29%
    Sheahan 34.11%, top 90 pk fwd, 8 evg
    Brodziak 31.69%

    I see 6 fwds with bottom 78 fwd DZ FO eating role.
    Cave C #78, FO% 50.70
    Granlund LW #64
    Jurco LW
    Archibald RW #46
    Gagner RW
    Sheahan C #25, FO% 52.47%

    Do not forget about MR. Cave.
    Suspect cave & Sheahan split 4C ev min
    With Sheahan getting 3C role.
    Would expect Khaira & Kassian to eat some of the DZ FO %

    As for our prospects last yr:
    Gambardella W 15gm 30.00%, 1.48 Evp/60
    Malone C 16gm 30.77%, FO% 44.62
    Currie R 21gm 37.74%, .66 evg/60, 1.65 Evp/60
    Yamamotto R 17gm 45.83%
    Puljujarvi R 46gm 51.91%
    Marody C 6gm 73.68%, FO% 36.00

    Their are 6 x 82 gm of bottom 6 role.
    That is 61.5 gm per spread over 8 forwards.

    Drai – Mcd – Chaisson
    Neal – RNH – Kassian
    ———————- Top 6 above
    Sheahan
    Gagner
    Archibald
    Jurco
    Granlund
    Cave
    Khaira
    ———————- DZ FO eaters above
    Haas
    Nygard #2 goal scorer in .67 NHLE European league.

    When I look at like grouped Team, comp forwards.
    Their is a dramatic difference in avg Evp/60 with 8 diffrent groups of FO ZS.

  72. Bank Shot says:

    Tippett wants to bring goals against down. Not sure Gagner on the third line helps towards that goal.

    Maybe we will see Granlund slide to center and have a bottom six of

    Khaira-Sheahan-Archibald
    Nygaard/Benson/Jurco-Granlund-Gagner

    Then you can feed the third line to the wolves and hopefully have a 4th line that can outscore other 4th lines.

    Projecting Haas or Marody into that 4th line center role seems like a longshot.

  73. Primetime says:

    Would anyone be interested in a JP for Kase trade?

    Could only be done through Carolina…Anaheim less likely to trade within the division and we keep JP out of the division. Carolina still gets a RW with higher pedigree and proven synergy with their best centre?

    Kase is 2.6 mill/year x 2 then RFA

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: What’s the over/under on 30 games down in Bakersfield for Bouchard?

    Oooohhh, I think it should be 40 plus but he is going to sparkle and its going to be tough to keep him down. To me, this is more dependent on team success and Persson/Benning/Jones/Bear/Lagesson that Bouch – I know (well I’m confident) Bouch will perform.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    I found this comment by Tippet about how he sees his bottom six being organized quite interesting.

    “I don’t look at it as a number three, I look at it as we have a top six and a bottom six and we might have a couple of our bottom two lines geared a bit different – one’s maybe a little heavier line and one maybe a little bit quicker that has the ability to score.”

    There are so many new guys in the mix I am reluctant to speculate on who might go where but I am always a fan of players being given a role so they know what is expected of them.

    Yes, it was an interesting verbal. I personally don’t think a coach needs to (or should) really differentiate players into groups like that but its more just talk.

    The thing is there are one (or more) players that should likely be in the “bottom six” that will be in the top 6. I mean, I think we all see Nygard as a bottom 6 guy but he could end up being 2L – is he even an NHL player? Is Kassian not a “bottom 6 guy”? Chiasson? Khaira? Gagner? Benson (as this stage)?

  76. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, it was an interesting verbal.I personally don’t think a coach needs to (or should) really differentiate players into groups like that but its more just talk.

    The thing is there are one (or more) players that should likely be in the “bottom six” that will be in the top 6. I mean, I think we all see Nygard as a bottom 6 guy but he could end up being 2L – is he even an NHL player? Is Kassian not a “bottom 6 guy”?Chiasson?Khaira? Gagner?Benson (as this stage)?

    More questions than answers going into TC this year for sure. I think you can probably post 20 different lineups for the forwards and defend each one of them to some degree.

    Should be fun. 😉

  77. rickithebear says:

    Like every year Ai look at the top 10-11 dmen evg/60 production.
    1 looked for top 372 fwd even min (490 min) and there were 210 (top 6.77 per) dmen.
    #1 Hamilton #218 skater .67 evg/60 ( top 8 fwd); 2.75 evga/60
    #2 Reilly #234 skater .64 (top 8 fwd); 3.28 evga/60
    #3 Dumba #257 .59 ( top 9 fwd); 3.14 evga/60
    #4 Letang #259 .58 ( top 9 fwd); 2.79 evga/60
    ————————————— 4th line evg drivers below
    #5 Barrie #281 .52 ( top 10 fwd); 2.96 evga/60
    #6 Gustafson, #288 skater .51 (top 10 fwd); 3.29 evga/60
    Weber #288 skater .51 (top 10 fwd); 2.23 evga/60, Weber continues to be a 4th/5th option evg god!
    #8 Chabot #295 skater .50 ( top 10 fwd), 4.09 evga/60, that is the worst I have ever seen from top 10.
    #9 Josi #297 skater ( top 10 fwd); 2.69 evga/60
    Hedman #297 skater ( top 10 fwd); 2.72 evga/60
    #11 Dunn #320 skater ( top 11 fwd); 2.11 evga/60; Champ Roster def dman.

    Like every year.
    The top 4 – 6 off dmen generate above 4th line evg pace.
    While creating a high % 3-1-1-1 structures that result in 1D-1G true DZ ( homeplate) def structures.
    Yielding high % open HD sh densities.
    Resulting in brutal below average evga/60

    Year
    After
    Year
    After
    Year.

    Brutal player usage.

    We know this years median is 2.64-2.66 evga/60 depending on TOI dman count.

    When I look at evga/60 rates from the top off dmen on here called top 4 dmen by people on here.
    Makes me want to Puke.
    Ristolienen 3.72 evga/60
    Petry 3.53; thank god Mact knew what he was doing!
    Carlson 3.42
    Gostisbere 3.40
    Yandle 3.36
    Provorov 3.33
    Werenski 3.29
    S. Jones 3.28
    Greene 3.26
    E. Karlsson
    Burns 3.14
    Trouba 3.07
    Keith 3.06
    Girardi 3.06
    Nurse 3.03
    Dahlin 2.98
    Bogosian 2.97
    Morrison 2.91
    Shattenkirk 2.91

    Nurse exposing his def side driving Larsson into 4.00+ evga/60 pisses me off to no end.
    18/19 median 2.64
    Top 62 evga/60 is now 2.41.

    16/17 median 2.39
    Top 62 evga/60 is now 2.17

    You want to be a top GA team to compete for championships.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:

    All of my per hour metrics are from taking the prospect-stats eTOI data and applying it to the players’ regular season counting statistics as long as I have 70+% of their total GP tracked which is true for most players

    I haven’t been able to access prospect-stats for months and it still isn’t working.

    Does it work for you?

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jayamania: per h

    Yes, just noticed that – thanks.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    JohnChambers: Very quality post.

    Woodcroft did a great job integrating Bouchard into the lineup. I imagine his minutes will be similarly incremented when he graduates into the NHL.

    Dave Manson likely deserves much of the credit on this I would assume.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    BankShot:
    Tippett wants to bring goals against down. Not sure Gagner on the third line helps towards that goal.

    Maybe we will see Granlund slide to center and have a bottom six of

    Khaira-Sheahan-Archibald
    Nygaard/Benson/Jurco-Granlund-Gagner

    Then you can feed the third line to the wolves and hopefully have a 4th line that can outscore other 4th lines.

    Projecting Haas or Marody into that 4th line center role seems like a longshot.

    I think Haas likely has the inside track on 4C given the coach’s verbal.

    Like you, I can’t consider him as an NHL center until he shows me he is.

    I think Granlund as a 4C is a long shot as Tippett has expressly said he sees Granlund as a winger (and Ganger) and he has also talked a few times about Granlund/Archibald as a pair.

    Of course, what he says now doesn’t cement anything in October.

  82. rickithebear says:

    OP:
    Getting and preventing goals wins games.

    Top 6 is an even play reference.

    PK & PP it is #1 (top31) #2 (32-62), #3 (63-93) #4 (94-124) PP unit #1

    Holland said he wanted to get double digit goal scorers.
    Not guys who pass around the puck.
    He wants guys who put it in the net.

    When you list points or Pts/60 you are not on board with what our GM is looking for.

    Passing the puck is alot different than being real good at targeting the open space in net elevation.

    But Draisaitl proved you can translate that top 5 passing skill and become a 50 goal scorer by teaching yourself:
    to position yourself o make it easier to target
    And
    to more accurately target the open space in net.

    Kassian has shown a repetative ability to penetrate and target open space resulting in higher seasonal shooting%

    I stated this years ago when we first discussed Repeatability and I identified Eberle HD area penetration as a critical factor.

    Most did not understand the HD area.
    And it was not until I pointed out the difference in success rate by shot location on Sure shot Ninjas chart that people started to understand.

    No one was ready for open and closed shot concept dating back to a 44+ yr old observation of Ron Gunville Table Hockey Goalie movement and hit goalie rate.

    My 2 halves of GA play.
    1. HD area = density
    2. Open(scoreable)/closed( nonscoreable) shot = quality.

  83. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide:
    Forwards

    Benson – Marody – Hebig
    B. Starrett – McLeod – Maksimov
    Safin – Iacobellis – Lavoie
    Vesey – Stukel – Keeler

    Defence

    Samorukov – Bouchard
    Cap – Day
    Bellamy – Desharnais

    Goalies

    Rodrigue
    Skinner

    Out: Yamamoto, De Jong

    via Oilers

    Bellamy, Desharnais

    Damn!

  84. rickithebear says:

    My 15 yr old autistic son got great work experience recommendations from this summer.

    Head librarian:
    Had him do reading program with kids, story time, crafts and decorations, check in/out all material and related public events at museums, Rodeos, etc..

    Staff supervisor RCMP:
    Helped with Renovations at his home.

    Chief of Hanna Fire Department:
    Loaded milk trucks and Ice trucks all summer from distribution centers.

    Hanna SPCA:
    Caring Of the animals and cleaning of the kennels and pens.

    My father got me to do physically demanding and shitty work to teach me what real work was.
    It is nice to live in a community that know what good people are ( I am a lot diffrent than on this blog) and give your kid a chance.

    Hanna is looking at doing a pilot program for grade 11 & 12 students that work thru the Volenteer firefighter training center
    And get
    NFPA
    IFSAC
    ProBoard
    Accreditation.

    He wants to get in the program.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Faulk for Kase looks like a thing.

    Its reported (Friedman) to be done if Faulk waives (ANA is on his list).

  86. jp says:

    rickithebear:

    Cave 43.03%, top 50 pkga/60 rate in BOS

    My goodness Ricki you sure are an optimist.

    Top 60 PKGA. In Boston. In 24 minutes.

    I feel like reaching 60 minutes might be a starting point for beginning to believe a /60 rate. And that PKGA number ballooned to 13.57 GA/60 with the Oilers (in 26 minutes). 4th worst in the league for anyone who played 20+ minutes. No one with 100 PK minutes was that bad. His overall PKGA/60 was 208th of 237 forwards who played 20 minutes. Sigh.

    Also, bad teams start in their own zone more than good teams. The Oilers were a bad team. It almost certainly inflated (deflated) the OZ starts for Oilers players from 18-19.

  87. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: I haven’t been able to access prospect-stats for months and it still isn’t working.

    Does it work for you?

    no, the site’s been down since the kings hired the guy who founded/ran it. I have some leftover data here and there, but you should be able to get some stuff from the internet archive

  88. Wilde says:

    Also Faulk, please waive. It’s California. C’mon bud.

    e: also also thanks everyone

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Game time – lets do this!

  90. digger50 says:

    I can see it now

    2020 playoffs and O Canada sung by Cooper Marody🙂

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gawdin scored on the first shot of the game – a weak one on Rodrigue.

    Samorukov does step up at the blue line but the puck is chirped past him leading to the rush.

    Sammy needs to pick his spots better. He will learn.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde,

    Thanks

  93. Jordan says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Huh. I thought Talbot was playing for the flames now. Weird.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Strong play by Safin in the neutral zone to one hand the puck forward in transition – then hard (and fast) on a back check.

    I think Ostaf is healthy and I’m looking forward to him working his way up the depth chart in the Bake

  95. JimmyV1965 says:

    Primetime:
    Would anyone be interested in a JP for Kase trade?

    Could only be done through Carolina…Anaheim less likely to trade within the division and we keep JP out of the division.Carolina still gets a RW with higher pedigree and proven synergy with their best centre?

    Kase is 2.6 mill/year x 2 then RFA

    No one is trading Kase for JP. He scored 11 in 30 last year and 20 in 66 the year before.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Beau Starrett may start to think twice about signing that pro contract as he gets laid out again (by Gawdin).

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Starrett can’t handle a tough McLeod own-zone pass, puck pops out to the middle an its in the back of the net.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouchard gets walked but the flames fumble the scoring chance.

    Geez – team has not been good from the center line in so far.

  99. Professor Q says:

    Just got the game on.

    Is this bad?

  100. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its reported (Friedman) to be done if Faulk waives (ANA is on his list).

    He’ll waive as soon as an extension is agreed to, from what I’m hearing.

  101. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Gawdin scored on the first shot of the game – a weak one on Rodrigue.

    Samorukov does step up at the blue line but the puck is chirped past him leading to the rush.

    Sammy needs to pick his spots better. He will learn.

    Have we been cursed somehow?

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Geez:

    Starrett/McLeod/Maksimov

    Dejong/Deharnais

    Stuck in their own zone for a good minute and then give up a HDSC.

    Shots are 7-7 but Oilers are getting dominated.

  103. Todd Macallan says:

    Benson gets drilled in the face in front of the net and ends of with the penalty. Refs in mid season form I see.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nice job on the PK by the Oil and Starrett with a partial break – taken down and draws a PP.

    Good play by Beau who has has had a really tough period prior to that.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    The fact that Maksimov has not been on PP1 in these two games makes me think he won’t be in Bakersfield (unless Benson/Marody are up) which would be disappointing to me.

    Day on PP2, no Samorukov.

    Day took a bunch of PP minutes last year, even playing ahead of Bear for much of the year.

  106. Professor Q says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Benson gets drilled in the face in front of the net and ends of with the penalty. Refs in mid season form I see.

    I just saw that. I have absolutely no idea how someone crosschecking you in the face, with you doing nothing even in retaliation, can result in you getting a penalty and then nothing.

    Why are the refs never called out? Something needs to change in this “culture”.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    Top line and top pairing out there – can’t get out of own zone and give up a 2 on 1 down low.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Day with a nice transition pass to send Vesey in on a partial break but Wolf with the save.

  109. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Day with a nice transition pass to send Vesey in on a partial break but Wolf with the save.

    McLeod had a nice playmaking sequence there. Good awareness with the back pass. Wolf also with the save.

    51 wins and .930 SV% over his two years in Everett? Not bad at all.

  110. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear:
    My 15 yr old autistic son got great work experience recommendations from this summer.

    Head librarian:
    Had him do reading program with kids, story time, crafts and decorations, check in/out all material and related public events at museums, Rodeos, etc..

    Staff supervisor RCMP:
    Helped with Renovations at his home.

    Chief of Hanna Fire Department:
    Loaded milk trucks and Ice trucks all summer from distribution centers.

    Hanna SPCA:
    Caring Of the animals and cleaning of the kennels and pens.

    My father got me to do physically demanding and shitty work to teach me what real work was.
    It is nice to live in a community that know what good people are ( I am a lot diffrent than on this blog) and give your kid a chance.

    Hanna is looking at doing a pilot program for grade 11 & 12 students that work thru the Volenteer firefighter training center
    And get
    NFPA
    IFSAC
    ProBoard
    Accreditation.

    He wants to get in the program.

    Awesome.

    Volunteering in the community, learning and knowing a wide range of skills ( construction back grounds are a huge asset) and working well with others is essential to being a firefighter. All the best to your son and his journey. The sky is the limit for him.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilers on a 4 on 1 and Lavoie’s easy back pass is off miserably and they bungle it.

    They just don’t have it tonight – individually and as a group – so far.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Posposil continues to be a shit disturber – he now knows that hitting from behind = 2 minutes, even against the Oilers.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nice zone entry on the PP, Benson with a slick little pass to Marody who tries a fancy toe drag and the flames get an easy clear.

    Cooper continues to struggle.

  114. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    rickithebear:
    My 15 yr old autistic son got great work experience recommendations from this summer.

    Head librarian:
    Had him do reading program with kids, story time, crafts and decorations, check in/out all material and related public events at museums, Rodeos, etc..

    Staff supervisor RCMP:
    Helped with Renovations at his home.

    Chief of Hanna Fire Department:
    Loaded milk trucks and Ice trucks all summer from distribution centers.

    Hanna SPCA:
    Caring Of the animals and cleaning of the kennels and pens.

    My father got me to do physically demanding and shitty work to teach me what real work was.
    It is nice to live in a community that know what good people are ( I am a lot diffrent than on this blog) and give your kid a chance.

    Hanna is looking at doing a pilot program for grade 11 & 12 students that work thru the Volenteer firefighter training center
    And get
    NFPA
    IFSAC
    ProBoard
    Accreditation.

    He wants to get in the program.

    Sounds like you are raising a fine young man … keep up the good work, Ricki.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov with a panicked dish around on an exit, its kept in but he makes up for the poor breakout with a good shot block.

  116. Professor Q says:

    Wait. The Oilers player was clearly going to win that race by 10 feet. Why call it icing?

  117. Professor Q says:

    They just might be targeting Benson.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Fantastic pass by Safin on a quick break 2 on 1 to set up Iacobellis but Wolf with a nice save.

    Safin looks fast out there and he’s got the skill. Ostaf will re-establish himself a real prospect.

  119. dcsj says:

    Oilers just don’t seem assertive enough tonight, on forecheck or defensive zone. Play mostly going the Flames way.

  120. Ben says:

    I see Evan Bouchard as a sort of lactose-tolerant Tom Poti.

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov steps up at the blue line and lays out a flame with a big a clean check.

  122. Professor Q says:

    Wait, De Jong actually is playing?

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    I guess that period was better than the first but not that much. First 10 minutes the Oilers had some chances and pressure but the last 10 minutes the flames took over again.

    Rodrigue has been the Oilers best player.

    The “bubble kids” have been very disappointing through 5 periods.

    A bit better tonight but both Marody and Benson have been non-impactful. These games mean nothing but players that we are reasonably projecting as Oilers, an middle 6 Oilers, this season, should be at least showing flashes.

    Bouchard has been directly responsible for 4 or 5 high danger chances against through 5 periods. He consistently shows his plus skills out there but he’s also showing exactly why he should spend some material time with Manson.

    Guys like Haas and Jurco are going to be raring to go come the weekend and the exhibition games, Benson and Marody better pick up their games.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    ProfessorQ:
    Wait, De Jong actually is playing?

    He’s been paired with Deharnais all night.

  125. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: He’s been paired with Deharnais all night.

    Yes, I know. I was just going off of Lowetide’s projected lineup saying that he’d be out.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    What a play by Safin – beauty puck retrial off the skate in the neutral zone, against the line and a fantastic cross-seem diagonal pass to a streaking player – right on the tape – for a quick break chance.

    Best play by an Oiler through the 2 games.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Safin play drew a PP – Starrett won the PP draw and Bouchard gets a wrister through that hits something and goes in.

    I credit Safin for the goal even though he was on the bench – his play the shift before was fantastic.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouchard has been unreal good in the first 6 minutes of the third – a number of rush break ups, calm transitions, stretch passes, high end keep at the blue line, shot through on the PP for a goal.

    No miscues so far either.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    Empty net goal – at least the Oilers were the better team in the 3rd period – in particular Bouchard.

  130. Professor Q says:

    So, what are our thoughts? Good? Bad? Very on either side of that spectrum? Improved from the previous game?

    Helter Skelter?

  131. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Can barely watch this grainy reso . Sad thing is its a big improvement from years past webcasts lol.

  132. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Professor Q:
    So, what are our thoughts? Good? Bad? Very on either side of that spectrum? Improved from the previous game?

    Helter Skelter?

    Didn’t see the game but I don’t think you can blame this one on Manson, Prof.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouchard was the only prospect of note that really showed his plus skills on a consistent basis but he also showed his deficiencies and why he simply shouldn’t be in the NHL right now.

    Safin was the biggest arrow up – maybe only arrow up.

  134. rickithebear says:

    Most of our forwards looked like they do not know what penetration of the HD area is.

    A couple who repeatedly looked like they know how important the HD area is for open HD sh density.
    They were great goal scorers in CHL last yr.
    One (18yr)
    One (20yr)

    The perimeter play by the AHL players disappointed me.
    I saw no Eberle tough.

  135. texmex says:

    From what I saw, Bouchard looked good offensively but made some questionable defensive decisions. His skating was better than I thought.

    Rodrigue was solid.

    I’d suggest people need to curb their expectations of Sammy.

    Benson, seemed a little slow to me, but he may play better with better players at the NHL level?

  136. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Bouchard was the only one I noticed , he seemed to have the puck a lot in the 15 mins of the 3rd I watched

  137. rickithebear says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Sounds like you are raising a fine young man … keep up the good work, Ricki.

    We come here cause we are Oiler fans.

    But we all know how important it is to try and raise children who are not a drain on the rest of the community.

    That is one thing I work for charity wise in life.

    That every kid get a fair chance!

  138. jp says:

    Wilde: No, the closest I could get is the amount of shifts he played in which a shot event occurred, because of the way I track games

    All of my per hour metrics are from taking the prospect-stats eTOI data and applying it to the players’ regular season counting statistics as long as I have 70+% of their total GP tracked which is true for most players

    Eventually I’m going to go through the guy’s old blog post on how he got his estimates because I actually should be able to get a superior set of estimates because I have more total event data to use as a proxy if I’m reading his methodology correctly, we’ll see

    It’s definitely jumped up the to-do list ever since his site went offline after the Kings hired him

    Wasn’t it just individual on ice SF+SA (or GF+GA??) as a proxy of TOI share? If he was using goals then for sure you’d be able to improve on that a lot with your data.

    Any thoughts about how one could reduce the bias in this kind of methodology? It seems obvious that strong offensive players would generally have more events occurring with them on the ice. And “high” and “low” event (both ways) players seem to exist in the NHL. In either case their eTOI numbers could be quite skewed compared to reality. I’ve got nothing, but maybe there’s an innovative way to improve the estimates.

    And again, very cool the hard work you’re putting in and the data you’re producing with your tracking project.

  139. godot10 says:

    Wilde:
    Also Faulk, please waive. It’s California. C’mon bud.

    e: also also thanks everyone

    It is California. But it is also the Dementor.

  140. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: He’ll waive as soon as an extension is agreed to, from what I’m hearing.

    An extension and Dementor pay.

  141. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I guess that period was better than the first but not that much.First 10 minutes the Oilers had some chances and pressure but the last 10 minutes the flames took over again.

    Rodrigue has been the Oilers best player.

    The “bubble kids” have been very disappointing through 5 periods.

    A bit better tonight but both Marody and Benson have been non-impactful.These games mean nothing but players that we are reasonably projecting as Oilers, an middle 6 Oilers, this season, should be at least showing flashes.

    Bouchard has been directly responsible for 4 or 5 high danger chances against through 5 periods.He consistently shows his plus skills out there but he’s also showing exactly why he should spend some material time with Manson.

    Guys like Haas and Jurco are going to be raring to go come the weekend and the exhibition games, Benson and Marody better pick up their games.

    Rookie games mean nothing to Benson and Marody, except to get through them without injury. They are like regular training camp for NHL veterans. They probably both wish they had a minor injury like Yamamoto.

  142. defmn says:

    Watched the first two periods from the Saddledome tonight. That was all I could take.

    The Flames played like the game mattered and the Oilers did not except for Benson who ended up with two penalties for his troubles. That was about all he accomplished.

    Agree with OP that Safin upped his stock but that was about the only real positive I saw other than Rodrigue making some really nice saves after he settled down.

  143. jp says:

    Just watched the Tippett avail from yesterday. Very impressive how prepared (like Holland) he is. Really clear the time and effort he’s spent getting to know near all he can about the players he’ll be coaching. I’m really liking him and Holland, and it’s easy to see how they’re a good match.

    One little thing that struck me in the interview was when talking about Nygard and Haas he said: “and they’re not 20 or 21 year olds, these guys are 25, 26, 27 – and I put Persson in that same group…”. Kinda impressed he knew all of their ages, and was like, oops, gotta include Persson to get them all correct. Not trying to diss but I don’t feel like McLellan would have known their exact ages or had a handle on their game before seeing them in camp.

    Another notable moment for me was when asked about Klefbom’s partner. It was a bit of a joke answer, but also zero endorsement or positive words about anyone specific. What kind of partner would you be looking for for Oscar Klefbom’? Tippett: “A good one. (pause where people laugh) Right hander preferably. If you come up with one in camp let me know. (another pause) We’ve got some candidates”. A great opportunity to talk about Benning and/or Persson but he didn’t.

  144. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar: I was all over the Jurco/Sheahan history until this community bursted the bubble by providing info that is was all Tatar zoomed.

    Now Holland needs to aquire Tatar……

    Goal scorers generate offence.
    Passers recieve assists.

    How did they explain zooming.

    Do not care about points WOWY.

    Evg WOWY is we’re the truth lies!

  145. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Just watched the Tippett avail from yesterday. Very impressive how prepared (like Holland) he is. Really clear the time and effort he’s spent getting to know near all he can about the players he’ll be coaching. I’m really liking him and Holland, and it’s easy to see how they’re a good match.

    One little thing that struck me in the interview was when talking about Nygard and Haas he said: “and they’re not 20 or 21 year olds, these guys are 25, 26, 27 – and I put Persson in that same group…”. Kinda impressed he knew all of their ages, and was like, oops, gotta include Persson to get them all correct. Not trying to diss but I don’t feel like McLellan would have known their exact ages or had a handle on their game before seeing them in camp.

    Funny you should say that. One thing that REALLY bugged me was the presser where TMac kept referring to recently acquired Ryan Strome as “Dylan”. Like he couldn’t even be bothered to learn his players names. As a business leader (manager?), that really, really pissed me off.

  146. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Wasn’t it just individual on ice SF+SA as a proxy of TOI share?

    By memory, I believe you’re correct. Shots or corsi or something like that. Wilde can be much, much more accurate if he has a shift count.

  147. ArmchairGM says:

    Apropos nothing, here are the even strength boxcars for the prospect D last year:

    Bear: 52, 5-15-20 +14 / 0.38 P/GP
    Day: 64, 4-19-23 +14 / 0.36
    Lagesson: 67, 8-16-24 +25 / 0.36
    Jones: 50, 3-13-16 +16 / 0.32

    I had no idea Lagesson had so much goal-scoring ability. Jones’ numbers are a little shy, although he had the best PP numbers of the 3 that got significant PP time:

    Jones: 3-10-13
    Day: 3-8-11
    Bear: 1-10-11

    I suppose Bouchard will probably log the lion’s share of PP minutes this year, so this is somewhat a moot point, but I’m surprised Bear only had 1 goal with that shot of his.

    Lagesson was the only player of the 4 to log any short-handed points, with 2 assists to his credit. I could see him and Adam Larsson forming a shutdown pairing in Edmonton a year from now.

  148. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Funny you should say that. One thing that REALLY bugged me was the presser where TMac kept referring to recently acquired Ryan Strome as “Dylan”. Like he couldn’t even be bothered to learn his players names. As a business leader (manager?), that really, really pissed me off.

    Yeah. That was awful.

  149. ArmchairGM says:

    Connor McDavid is 6th on the all-time list for P/GP in the NHL. If he has another season like last year he’ll easily overtake Marcel Dionne for 5th, with a career rate of 1.34 to Dionne’s 1.31.

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&reportType=season&seasonFrom=19171918&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,200&sort=pointsPerGame

  150. Wilde says:

    jp: Wasn’t it just individual on ice SF+SA (or GF+GA??) as a proxy of TOI share? If he was using goals then for sure you’d be able to improve on that a lot with your data.

    Any thoughts about how one could reduce the bias in this kind of methodology? It seems obvious that strong offensive players would generally have more events occurring with them on the ice. And “high” and “low” event (both ways) players seem to exist in the NHL. In either case their eTOI numbers could be quite skewed compared to reality. I’ve got nothing, but maybe there’s an innovative way to improve the estimates.

    And again, very cool the hard work you’re putting in and the data you’re producing with your tracking project.

    The source data can’t be SF-SA or anything similar because there’s no on-ice data for individual players publicly available from the league. That’s why my estimates would be better, it’d be going from on-ice goals + penalties and game/period totals of shots and and the rest of the trad stats to the much higher event CF-CA

    The bias I think just has to be lived with, just like how deployment needs a little qualitative review when it comes to shift starts and d-man change-ons because I don’t have that either. I remember speculating that Farabee was a low-event killer because his eTOI was below one of Jaxon’s thresholds despite all the press and scouting saying he was playing a hard all-situation deployment (and I though he was playing both special teams).

    That’s one of the luxuries of tracking – the eye test is baked in to the work in a distinct fashion. I have a really bad sports memory but I tend to take a lot of notes because you have to always be pausing the film. Generally not going to miss many quirks in deployment

  151. ArmchairGM says:

    All-time Oilers stats:

    12. Nugent-Hopkins: 382 points – another 69 (!) point season will push Nuge past Horcoff, Tikkanen and Lowe to 9th overall. He needs 65 to catch Horcoff, 54 to catch Tikkanen and just 1 to tie Lowe.

    14. McDavid: 372 points – he’s just 10 points aft RNH, so the players listed above are history this year. McDavid can also catch Hemsky (105 points needed), but will have to wait until the next season to move up to Doug Weight’s #7 spot, as he’s 205 points distant. Smyth (6) and Coffey (5) should fall in 2021-22 as they’re 259 and 297 points ahead, respectively.

    20. Draisaitl: 312 points – 16 points back of Hall with 30 games in hand (!) means that Hall is an easy target for November. This season Draisaitl should have no problem vanquishing MacTavish (19), Marchant (31), Simpson (53), Huddy (56), Eberle (70) and Lowe (71), too. Whew, that’s a lot of movement – all the way up to 13th!

    21. Gagner: 305 points – didn’t know he was so high, but he can catch Hall (23) and MacTavish (26) this year given a healthy season. It’d be nice to see him close in on Marchant (38) too, but that’s probably too much to hope for.

    Taylor Hall is becoming a footnote in Oilers history.

    There are no other current players in the top 50. The next bunch:

    56. Klefbom: 122 points
    81. Nurse: 88
    94. Kassian: 77
    122. Benning: 53
    128. Larsson: 52
    130. Russell: 50
    140. Khaira: 42
    147. Chiasson: 38
    148. Puljujarvi: 37

  152. jp says:

    Wilde: The source data can’t be SF-SA or anything similar because there’s no on-ice data for individual players publicly available from the league. That’s why my estimates would be better, it’d be going from on-ice goals + penalties and game/period totals of shots and and the rest of the trad stats to the much higher event CF-CA

    The bias I think just has to be lived with, just like how deployment needs a little qualitative review when it comes to shift starts and d-man change-ons because I don’t have that either. I remember speculating that Farabee was a low-event killer because his eTOI was below one of Jaxon’s thresholds despite all the press and scouting saying he was playing a hard all-situation deployment (and I though he was playing both special teams).

    That’s one of the luxuries of tracking – the eye test is baked in to the work in a distinct fashion. I have a really bad sports memory but I tend to take a lot of notes because you have to always be pausing the film. Generally not going to miss many quirks in deployment

    Yeah I knew the AHL has on ice goals, thought they might have shots as well. Zero question 10X more events in your data would be an improvement.

    Agreed the bias is likely impossible to remove. I was thinking since commenting though. Potentially it would be possible to introduce some kind of correction factor that could improve the error on the upper lower ends if the error is somewhat consistent (if eTOI underestimates TOI on the low end of the population as a whole for instance).

    If one was so inclined they could use NHL GF-GA data to test the eTOI model and potentially estimate errors in the population data. Or that might not help at all! Even without any methodological changes your data should improve the estimates a ton.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: Rookie games mean nothing to Benson and Marody, except to get through them without injury.They are like regular training camp for NHL veterans.They probably both wish they had a minor injury like Yamamoto.

    Dillon Dube is the flames version of Benson – he shone as expected.

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