Autumn Leaves

by Lowetide

The jobs are there, more than in most years. I’d guess there are two or three spots up front and a couple on defense that are available. There’s a window of opportunity here, before Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg arrive, for some really good prospects to establish themselves in the NHL.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions until Sept. 19 here.

  • New Lowetide: Can Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith stop enough pucks for the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Shutdown success by Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson is a key for the Oilers in 2019-20.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Even if he’s unsure about his return, Oilers’ Connor McDavid looks and sounds like his old self
  • Lowetide: RE 19-20: How can the Oilers’ bottom six close the gap in goal differential?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson address respective highs and lows as Oilers rookie camp begins
  • Jonathan Willis: Riley Sheahan is a prudent signing by the Oilers in more ways than one
  • Jonathan Willis: Did Milan Lucic take a shot at Connor McDavid’s leadership?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With Evan Bouchard as the headliner, here are the players to watch at Oilers rookie camp
  • Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
  • Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
  • Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

WE’RE UNDERWAY

There are prospects playing already and it’s probably time we wrote down what’s going on.

Ilya Konovalov (KHL) 2, 5.34 .859. MacT’s KHL career is off to a slow start but this is a quality goalie prospect. Expect a recovery from some ugly early stats.

Philip Broberg (Champions League) 4, 0-0-0. He played well, finished -1 but the scouting reports were good. He’s a sublime skater, big curio now is offense.

Maxim Denezhkin (MHL) 2, 1-0-1. Plays for the MHL Yaroslavl Lokomotiv, same team as Konovalov but at a lower level. Pronman ranked him, a nice writeup is here.

Patrik Siikanen (Intl Jr) 7, 0-1-1. Siikanen hasn’t played any Sm-Liiga games but has gotten into some international competition.

Jesse Puljujarvi (Champions League) 4, 2-2-4. Impressive showing in the pre-season tournament, he’s clearly quality.

Filip Berglund (Champions League) 4, 0-2-2. He showed well in the tournament, and faces a vital season as an Oilers prospect. If he has a good season in the SHL, he could get a contract.

CERTAIN OILERS (18)

I think the forwards are mostly complete, there are two openings and those probably land with Haas and Nygard, with Benson, Jurco, Currie and Gambardella lurking.

Lots of talk about Neal playing RW and Benson getting the No. 2 LW job, I’d love to see it but let’s see how this plays out. There’s just so much we don’t know, and perhaps someone rarely discussed (Jurco?) surprises. There’s always such a rush to form an opinion and take credit that I believe much is missed about how the sausage is made. Let it come to you. It’s better.

There are also two spots open on defense and that’s probably where most of the conversation will land in preseason. There are some nice prospects pushing, based on media reports Jones and Lagesson may have the inside edge. Here’s the thing about defensemen: You never know.

UNCERTAIN OILERS (15)

My five additions to the list above are Caleb Jones, Joel Persson, Gaetan Haas, Joakim Nygard and Colby Cave. For the record, I suspect all of these names will play in the NHL this coming season. I expect Evan Bouchard will start the season in Bakersfield but once he’s recalled there won’t be a return trip. He’s bona fide.

DISTANT BELLS (19)

Among the distant bells, I’ll count Samorukov, Manning, Starrett, Malone, McLeod and Puljujarvi as distant possibles. I’m going to be watching these goalies closely in 2019-20, Edmonton needs at least one to emerge.

ALEX VOLKOV

Rumored ask for JP (along with a pick coming to Edmonton) via Elliotte Friedman’s latest podcast. He has good speed and a range of skills, would be a plug-and-play or close. Corey Pronman likes him here.

  • NHLE at 17: 5.2 (MHL)
  • NHLE at 18: 9.5 (MHL)
  • NHLE at 19: 10.1 (MHL)
  • NHLE at 20: 23.0 (AHL)
  • NHLE at 21: 24.9 (AHL)

Tyler Benson’s NHL at 20 (37.3) is superior, Kailer Yamamoto’s at 20 (25.6) is in the range. I think he’s more ‘middle six’ than ‘top six’ based on the math.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on the Lowdown, we start at 10 TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will pop by to talk about Oilers training camp and some of the big roster battles. Andrew Peard will touch base on Oil Kings preseason battles and the season ahead. Jeff Krushell will join us to talk about Dave Dombrowski and these pennant races in mlb. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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OriginalPouzar

Nuge was on Friedman-Marek’s podcast.

As per Oiler Nation:

Friedman also asked whether he’s had a face-to-face conversation with Ken Holland yet. Nuge hasn’t, but says that he has spoken to him on the phone and believes that his experience and rational is going to be great for the team and will be that “steady guy who isn’t going to be pressured into making any rash decisions anytime soon; he’s one of those guys who knows what he’s doing, he’s confident in what he can do and that’s a huge thing for us”.

Many profess that the team needs a massive uptick this year or Nuge will essentially not re-sign. Seems he’s very much on board with a GM “no making rash decisions” and with an eye to building the true contender. He mentioned a few times how great he thinks Holland is going to be.

Seems to me a guy player this is smart enough to see the ultimate plan and isn’t going to want out right when things are likely starting a material uptick.

Pure assumption by me but I suspect Connor McDavid feels similar.

OriginalPouzar

The forward chart would look so much better if Benson could be a legit 3LW/2LW – we just don’t know.

It would also look much better if Marody could be a legit 3C – seems a bit less likely than the above but I can still hope, for now.

OriginalPouzar

Shane Starrett is a distant bell but he is one groin tweak away from the NHL.

I assume he’ll see some NHL time this year as an injury call-up – whether that gets him an NHL start or not, I don’t know.

What is Starret gets called up as an injury replacement and never sees the AHL again? That happens to other team, could it happen to the Oilers?

Is goalie like defence where sometimes you see a player that is just better and more productive at the NHL level? I don’t think its all that unusual for a d-man to have better box cars in the NHL than the AHL, likely due to playing with more talent and with more structure.

Does that apply to tenders?

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Re Pool. Let it go Kinger. But I can’t quit you baby:

– When LT says Pools quality and I read this, I weep.

Compare and contrast:

“”We’ve been communicating even these last few days,” Krueger said Monday. “I know that it’s going to be fun to work with a player with that skill and ability. I have nothing but excitement for working with him. I know there’s a lot of potential there that’s still untapped, and it’s up to me and the coaches to find out what that is”” (re: Rasmus)

““I’m not trading anybody because they want to be traded. But if we can find something that works for everybody, I’ll look at it. If not, I’m not doing anything… At the end of the day, if you can do a deal that makes sense for the Edmonton Oilers, you do it. If you can’t, you go over (to Europe) and watch him play, and hopefully he scores a lot of goals over there.”

“It’s too bad it had to go this far down the path,” said Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, during at interview at the Oilers golf tournament. “He’s a talented hockey player and still a young guy. He has all the tools, but confidence goes a long way in any sport. “You could see him lose that every once in a while and get frustrated with himself. For his sake, I hope things work out, but it’s too bad things had to go this far.”

Side

OriginalPouzar,

“he’s one of those guys who knows what he’s doing”

A scalding hot burn on Chiarelli coming from Nuge.

dykema8

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Jurco has the skill and ability to add some skill to the bottom 6. He’s gonna surprise at training camp.

Bohologo

Back to yesterday’s Zacha/Jesse chatter.

Assuming for the sake of conversation the player value is roughly equal, why don’t the Devils and Oilers offer sheet the other’s RFA malcontent? If the respective offers are below $1,395,053 (U.S. dollars), there is no compensation returned to the losing club.

Of course, this thought experiment gets complicated quickly:
-what if both teams match the offer sheet? (Here, Jesse is unhappy, Zacha maybe as well.)
-what if only one team matches the offer sheet, and the other does not? (One team looks like a numpty, the other less so.)
-what if neither team matches? (Perhaps Jesse is happy, perhaps Zacha is too, depending on salary expectations.)

And of course, what if Zach/Puljujarvi refuse to sign the offer sheet(s) in the first place?

And of course-but even more so-does the NHL say, “Hey, you are colluding, and that’s only okay if we want the zebras to shaft the Oilers in the playoffs against the Ducks, uh, hypothetically speaking. I mean. Yeah.”

Side

Kinger_Oil.redux,

I’m struggling to see a comparison, Kinger. I see that Krueger is talking about Dhalin, Holland is talking about making a move only if it makes sense for the Oilers, and Nuge identifying (JP?) has confidence issues.

jp

Bohologo,

Why would this be collusion? And why would it be necessary? Why wouldn’t the teams just trade the players, contingent on each agreeing to a deal with their new club?

cowboy bill

As usual Colby Cave gets no love .

Watch out for the rise of the Caveman .

hunter1909

IT’S BACK!!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON FREE TO ENTER + PLAY

Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

That’s it!

Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

cowboy bill

Also Tomas Jurco played well with Riley Sheahan in their Detroit days . A line with Granlund , Sheahan & Jurco might pay dividends . Sam Gagner is a luxury the Oilers could live without .

Then place Cave with Khaira & Archibald .
And place Nygard and Haas in the line up . Presto !

Kinger_Oil.redux

Side:
Kinger_Oil.redux,

I’m struggling to see a comparison, Kinger.I see that Krueger is talking about Dhalin, Holland is talking about making a move only if it makes sense for the Oilers, and Nuge identifying (JP?) has confidence issues.

– No it’s Rasmus. Disgruntled D asked for a trade. Lots of tools, some deficiencies. A little further on than Pool (4 seasons in). Dealt with gong show in Buffalo.

– Their approach dealing with disgruntled talented flawed player is better IMO.

Primetime

Side:
Kinger_Oil.redux,

I’m struggling to see a comparison, Kinger.I see that Krueger is talking about Dhalin, Holland is talking about making a move only if it makes sense for the Oilers, and Nuge identifying (JP?) has confidence issues.

Agree, not really seeing what your point of those 3 quotes are Kinger.

On the other hand, yet another player, saying they like JP and see the talent, but that he needs to figure out his OWN issues to progress. We like to guess from the outside, but from what little we hear from the inside, they are all saying that JP needs to grow up a bit, and they are not blaming team/staff for his development. Maybe we should believe the people who are actually involved….

jp

Bohologo,

This reminds how vulnerable the Oilers are to an offer sheet on Puljujarvi though.

If a team was willing to sign him to a 3rd round compensation offer sheet ($1.395M-2.113M) Holland would have to do some maneuvering to be able to match (at least on the higher end). He’s surely expecting to get more than a 3rd in return at this point so not matching wouldn’t be particularly palatable either.

Primetime

Kinger_Oil.redux: – No it’s Rasmus.Disgruntled D asked for a trade.Lots of tools, some deficiencies.A little further on that Pool (4 seasons in).Dealt with gong show in Buffalo.I just like prefer their approach better.

“Our conversations with him have been positive,” added General Manager Jason Botterill said ” I think ‘Risto’ has always been someone who comes to camp in extremely good shape and I think there’s a good deal of adjustment for all of our players with a new head coach trying to put together exactly what coaches want, what they want from a systems standpoint and where they fit in with the group. I’m sure those conversations will go on with Risto and the entire team.”

Does that sound remotely like the situation that Holland is dealing with? You like Buffalo’s approach better, but I like the players/agent approach better too. He is showing up to camp and talking to the new head coach to see how/if things might be different

Wilde

Just to clear up some confusion about Bouchard’s AHL time:

He air-dropped in after game two of the series against the Colorado Eagles that the Condors would win 3-1.

In those two games, he was sheltered as 7D swapping in for Day beside Stanton, like so:

Lages – Jones
Lowe – Bear
Stanton – Day Bouchard

He went 9-4 in CF-CA in the first game and 10-6 in the second.

In the substantially more difficult (injuries and qual comp) series against the Gulls, the first game had the same D deployment but he saw little time compared to others as it went three and 1/4 overtime periods. 5-9 CF-CA.

In game two, Day sat and Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing. 28-16 CF-CA.

Game three vs the gulls, he was back to 7D. 11-11. Game four the same, 7-14.

Game five he played third pairing solid, and it went to double-OT. 28-17 CF-CA. Kulevich was in for an injured Bear, and the Lowe – Kulevich pairing played poorly enough by my eye for more shifts to go to Stanton – Bouch.

Game six (series over, Condors eliminated) Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing again and if I may editorialise, this was his best game by far and he was one of the Condors’ best players – this was made easier by Currie, Gambardella and Malone clearly playing through injuries and Bear being out.
A pretty stunning 24-9 CF-CA output in an elimination game.

In a game where the total CF-CA was 45-43 Condors. Obviously he was fed opportunities, but as I am always hammering on, the varying levels at which different players kill those minutes matters a lot.

Plus, teenager.

Also, 40.16% primary shot contribution share*, to the next-closest 29.69% – I will say that the Condors passed to him like it was his birthday every day, which I’m not a fan of in defensemen but if you’re into point plays there’s that. I think it’s different for him, but Burns is the only guy making that work in the bigs imo. If it was slanted more to shot assists I’d be more excited about it, and if they have him underutilising his vision for back-door plays in the service of pure shooting I’ll be extremely annoying about it all fall, fair warning.

The rest of the indie stats look like this:

iCF/GP – 3.88, just a hair below Lowe’s 3.90 among regulars. For other players who had small samples, Gravel had 5.75 in his 4-game spot.

iCFA/GP – 2.25, just a hair below deity Jones’ 2.23. Other small samples weren’t close. By the way, again, I only track primary assists.

*shot contribution % is how many of the Condors shots-for the player was on the ice for that they either took or had the primary assist on.

[e: also his GF-GA was 6-3]

defmn

Sounds like the Zacha saga has been resolved for now.

Elliotte Friedman
‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC

As reported here, word from the Czech Republic is Pavel Zacha and NJ are in agreement on an extension. Not official yet, but headed in that direction

Kinger_Oil.redux

Primetime,

– Yeah I agree: it’s too bad. The difference in approach the teams have taken (and players) is stark

– Kruger is really good at developing relationships. His euro “roots” in professional sport give him street cred as well with Europeans He reached out a lot in off-season, tried to patch things up. Good verbal. Better outcome

Wilde

ALL NUMBERS 5-ON-5 SORRY I ALWAYS FORGET THAT

Harpers Hair

Bohologo,

Friedman reporting Devils and Zacha closing in on a deal.

Side

Kinger_Oil.redux: – No it’s Rasmus.Disgruntled D asked for a trade.Lots of tools, some deficiencies.A little further on than Pool (4 seasons in).Dealt with gong show in Buffalo.

– Their approach dealing with disgruntled talented flawed player is better IMO.

OHhhhhh..

Yeah I don’t know, there’s so much going on behind the scenes I don’t know if I could say one team handles the situation better than the other.

I mean, if Ken spoke to JP and his agent in one of the many conversations and they told him they would never play for the Oilers again or something, there’s no real point in Holland pumping his tires at all.

There’s “disgruntled” and there’s “i’m leaving and there’s nothing you can do to stop me” and I feel JP may be the latter…

jp

Wilde,

Very cool, thanks for this.

Do you have Bouchard’s total CF-CA and the teams CF-CA in those games? (I can total the former from what you posted but not the latter, and I guess you’ve already got the Bouch totals too).

Wilde

jp:
Wilde,

Very cool, thanks for this.

Do you have Bouchard’s total CF-CA and the teams CF-CA in those games? (I can total the former from what you posted but not the latter, and I guess you’ve already got the Bouch totals too).

yeah for sure, warning quick math

G3 VS EAGLES : 69 – 38

G4 VS EAGLES : 57 – 39

G1 VS GULLS : 103 – 134 [remember tracking this till 4am]

G2 VS GULLS : 77 – 57

G3 VS GULLS : 67 – 45

G4 VS GULLS : 44 – 37

G5 VS GULLS : 96 – 87

G6 VS GULLS : 45 – 43

Bouchard’s total was 122 – 86 (58.65%), team was 558 – 480 (53.76%).

Again, clearly juiced deployment but whether or not you take that and run with it (and the extent to which you do) matters.

PinkSocks

hunter1909:
IT’S BACK!!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON FREE TO ENTER + PLAY

Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

That’s it!

Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

Hunter: Oilers will have 95 points, JP will have 6 goals.

Pouzar

cowboy bill:
Also Tomas Jurco played well with Riley Sheahan in their Detroit days .

Now you’ve done it….

jp

Wilde,

Thanks. And agreed there are caveats but still impressive.

McNuge93

It would be great if someone can surprise and push at least one of Kass or Chiasson out of the top 2 RW spots. Maybe Jurco, Nygard or Benson push Neal over to RW. And if Neal and Chiasson are on the same line, Nuge will be entering the the Ozone and those two will still be back at centre ice.

If, say,our defence prospects really disappoint does anybody have any ideas of free agent Ds that could be PTOed just in case?

defmn

jp:
Wilde,

Thanks. And agreed there are caveats but still impressive.

What’s the over/under on 30 games down in Bakersfield for Bouchard?

Woogie63

Should Connor, Leon, Darrell and RNH hop on one of Daryl’s planes and go have a piece of pizza with Jesse?

Material Elvis

Woogie63:
Should Connor, Leon, Darrell and RNH hop on one of Daryl’s planes and go have a piece of pizza with Jesse?

I’d prefer if they stay in Edmonton and ignore distractions. Time to focus on the guys who want to be here.

defmn

Woogie63:
Should Connor, Leon, Darrell and RNH hop on one of Daryl’s planes and go have a piece of pizza with Jesse?

Back in July it was reported that McDavid had contacted him. Crickets from everybody else.

OriginalPouzar

Maksimov and McLeod will remain a pair for tonight’s game – still thinking that’s going to be something we see all year long in the Bake. They’ll be joined by Starrett to start the game.

Coiler

Perhaps it’s time we just put the whole Jesse thing to bed until something concrete has happened. He’s not coming to training camp and hence, shouldn’t even be in the discussion.

defmn

I found this comment by Tippet about how he sees his bottom six being organized quite interesting.

“I don’t look at it as a number three, I look at it as we have a top six and a bottom six and we might have a couple of our bottom two lines geared a bit different – one’s maybe a little heavier line and one maybe a little bit quicker that has the ability to score.”

There are so many new guys in the mix I am reluctant to speculate on who might go where but I am always a fan of players being given a role so they know what is expected of them.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar:
Shane Starrett is a distant bell but he is one groin tweak away from the NHL.

I assume he’ll see some NHL time this year as an injury call-up – whether that gets him an NHL start or not, I don’t know.

What is Starret gets called up as an injury replacement and never sees the AHL again?That happens to other team, could it happen to the Oilers?

Is goalie like defence where sometimes you see a player that is just better and more productive at the NHL level? I don’t think its all that unusual for a d-man to have better box cars in the NHL than the AHL, likely due to playing with more talent and with more structure.

Does that apply to tenders?

I’m 100% certain that Starrett will get some NHL starts this year. Injuries happen to old goalies, they just do, and Starrett is the only realistic recall option at this point. I’m pretty sure Tippett won’t want to overwork Koskinen this year, so if Smith goes down Starrett will get every 3rd or 4th start, depending on the schedule.

defmn

Yamamoto not taking part.

Lines at Tuesday’s morning skate appeared as follows:

Forwards

Benson – Marody – Hebig
B. Starrett – McLeod – Maksimov
Safin – Iacobellis – Lavoie
Vesey – Stukel – Keeler

Defence

Samorukov – Bouchard
Cap – Day
Bellamy – Desharnais

Goalies

Rodrigue
Skinner

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: The forward chart would look so much better if Benson could be a legit 3LW/2LW – we just don’t know.

He will be, just not this year. I’d like to see him get the call halfway through the season and hold his own on the 3rd line. If he does well I’m sure he’ll be an option for 2LW the following season.

ArmchairGM

cowboy bill: Also Tomas Jurco played well with Riley Sheahan in their Detroit days

This was debunked: they only played well together when Tatar was with them. Pretty sure I know who was driving offense on that line, and it wasn’t our guys.

ArmchairGM

Wilde,

Amazing work – thanks! Do you have any idea what his eTOI would be for those games? I came away with the impression that his per-60’s were off the charts good.

ArmchairGM

Coiler:
Perhaps it’s time we just put the whole Jesse thing to bed until something concrete has happened. He’s not coming to training camp and hence, shouldn’t even be in the discussion.

Jesse who?

JimmyV1965

Wilde:
Just to clear up some confusion about Bouchard’s AHL time:

He air-dropped in after game two of the series against the Colorado Eagles that the Condors would win 3-1.

In those two games, he was sheltered as 7D swapping in for Day beside Stanton, like so:

Lages – Jones
Lowe – Bear
Stanton – DayBouchard

He went 9-4 in CF-CA in the first game and 10-6 in the second.

In the substantially more difficult (injuries and qual comp) series against the Gulls, the first game had the same D deployment but he saw little time compared to others as it went three and 1/4 overtime periods. 5-9 CF-CA.

In game two, Day sat and Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing. 28-16 CF-CA.

Game three vs the gulls, he was back to 7D. 11-11. Game four the same, 7-14.

Game five he played third pairing solid, and it went to double-OT. 28-17 CF-CA. Kulevich was in for an injured Bear, and the Lowe – Kulevich pairing played poorly enough by my eye for more shifts to go to Stanton – Bouch.

Game six (series over, Condors eliminated) Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing again and if I may editorialise, this was his best game by far and he was one of the Condors’ best players – this was made easier by Currie, Gambardella and Malone clearly playing through injuries and Bear being out.
A pretty stunning 24-9 CF-CA output in an elimination game.

In a game where the total CF-CA was 45-43 Condors. Obviously he was fed opportunities, but as I am always hammering on, the varying levels at which different players kill those minutes matters a lot.

Plus, teenager.

Also, 40.16% primary shot contribution share*, to the next-closest 29.69% – I will say that the Condors passed to him like it was his birthday every day, which I’m not a fan of in defensemen but if you’re into point plays there’s that. I think it’s different for him, but Burns is the only guy making that work in the bigs imo. If it was slanted more to shot assists I’d be more excited about it, and if they have him underutilising his vision for back-door plays in the service of pure shooting I’ll be extremely annoying about it all fall, fair warning.

The rest of the indie stats look like this:

iCF/GP – 3.88, just a hair below Lowe’s 3.90 among regulars. For other players who had small samples, Gravel had 5.75 in his 4-game spot.

iCFA/GP – 2.25, just a hair below deity Jones’ 2.23. Other small samples weren’t close. By the way, again, I only track primary assists.

*shot contribution % is how many of the Condors shots-for the player was on the ice for that they either took or had the primary assist on.

[e: also his GF-GA was 6-3]

Good stuff!! Where did you get the numbers?

ArmchairGM

defmn:
Sounds like the Zacha saga has been resolved for now.

Elliotte Friedman
‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC

As reported here, word from the Czech Republic is Pavel Zacha and NJ are in agreement on an extension. Not official yet, but headed in that direction

3 years at $2.25M per.

Wilde

ArmchairGM:
Wilde,

Amazing work – thanks! Do you have any idea what his eTOI would be for those games? I came away with the impression that his per-60’s were off the charts good.

No, the closest I could get is the amount of shifts he played in which a shot event occurred, because of the way I track games

All of my per hour metrics are from taking the prospect-stats eTOI data and applying it to the players’ regular season counting statistics as long as I have 70+% of their total GP tracked which is true for most players

Eventually I’m going to go through the guy’s old blog post on how he got his estimates because I actually should be able to get a superior set of estimates because I have more total event data to use as a proxy if I’m reading his methodology correctly, we’ll see

It’s definitely jumped up the to-do list ever since his site went offline after the Kings hired him

JimmyV1965: Good stuff!! Where did you get the numbers?

I watch (most) Bakersfield games and track who takes each shot, who assists it, and who was on the ice for it

Darth Tu

Wilde: No, the closest I could get is the amount of shifts he played in which a shot event occurred, because of the way I track games

All of my per hour metrics are from taking the prospect-stats eTOI data and applying it to the players’ regular season counting statistics as long as I have 70+% of their total GP tracked which is true for most players

Eventually I’m going to go through the guy’s old blog post on how he got his estimates because I actually should be able to get a superior set of estimates because I have more total event data to use as a proxy if I’m reading his methodology correctly, we’ll see

It’s definitely jumped up the to-do list ever since his site went offline after the Kings hired him

I watch (most) Bakersfield games and track who takes each shot, who assists it, and who was on the ice for it

Your work is a great resource. I really enjoy the breakdown of the Condors – I try to see as many games as I can, so like comparing my “eye test” to your stats breakdown.

Go Condors! Go Oilers!

defmn

ArmchairGM: 3 years at $2.25M per.

Yup. But continuing a trend this summer with RFA signings of back loading them so as to increase the qualifying offer on the next contract. Werenski did the same thing the other day.

//Zacha will still be a restricted free agent when the deal expires, but will be arbitration-eligible. The full breakdown of the deal is as follows:

2019-20: $1.75MM
2020-21: $2.0MM
2021-22: $3.0MM

Once again it is important to note the back-loaded nature of an RFA contract, meaning the Devils will be forced to issue a $3MM qualifying offer in order to keep Zacha’s rights at the end of the deal. At that point he would be just one year from unrestricted free agency, meaning he could essentially turn this into a four-year, $9.75MM deal and walk himself right onto the open market if he chooses. //

Smart negotiating by the agents.

Material Elvis

Wilde:
Just to clear up some confusion about Bouchard’s AHL time:

He air-dropped in after game two of the series against the Colorado Eagles that the Condors would win 3-1.

In those two games, he was sheltered as 7D swapping in for Day beside Stanton, like so:

Lages – Jones
Lowe – Bear
Stanton – DayBouchard

He went 9-4 in CF-CA in the first game and 10-6 in the second.

In the substantially more difficult (injuries and qual comp) series against the Gulls, the first game had the same D deployment but he saw little time compared to others as it went three and 1/4 overtime periods. 5-9 CF-CA.

In game two, Day sat and Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing. 28-16 CF-CA.

Game three vs the gulls, he was back to 7D. 11-11. Game four the same, 7-14.

Game five he played third pairing solid, and it went to double-OT. 28-17 CF-CA. Kulevich was in for an injured Bear, and the Lowe – Kulevich pairing played poorly enough by my eye for more shifts to go to Stanton – Bouch.

Game six (series over, Condors eliminated) Bouchard played legit 3rd pairing again and if I may editorialise, this was his best game by far and he was one of the Condors’ best players – this was made easier by Currie, Gambardella and Malone clearly playing through injuries and Bear being out.
A pretty stunning 24-9 CF-CA output in an elimination game.

In a game where the total CF-CA was 45-43 Condors. Obviously he was fed opportunities, but as I am always hammering on, the varying levels at which different players kill those minutes matters a lot.

Plus, teenager.

Also, 40.16% primary shot contribution share*, to the next-closest 29.69% – I will say that the Condors passed to him like it was his birthday every day, which I’m not a fan of in defensemen but if you’re into point plays there’s that. I think it’s different for him, but Burns is the only guy making that work in the bigs imo. If it was slanted more to shot assists I’d be more excited about it, and if they have him underutilising his vision for back-door plays in the service of pure shooting I’ll be extremely annoying about it all fall, fair warning.

The rest of the indie stats look like this:

iCF/GP – 3.88, just a hair below Lowe’s 3.90 among regulars. For other players who had small samples, Gravel had 5.75 in his 4-game spot.

iCFA/GP – 2.25, just a hair below deity Jones’ 2.23. Other small samples weren’t close. By the way, again, I only track primary assists.

*shot contribution % is how many of the Condors shots-for the player was on the ice for that they either took or had the primary assist on.

[e: also his GF-GA was 6-3]

Thanks again for putting in the work to track all of this. Incredible!

OriginalPouzar

KingerOilredux:
– Re Pool.Let it go Kinger.But I can’t quit you baby:

– When LT says Pools quality and I read this, I weep.

Compare and contrast:

“”We’ve been communicating even these last few days,” Krueger said Monday. “I know that it’s going to be fun to work with a player with that skill and ability. I have nothing but excitement for working with him. I know there’s a lot of potential there that’s still untapped, and it’s up to me and the coaches to find out what that is”” (re: Rasmus)

““I’m not trading anybody because they want to be traded. But if we can find something that works for everybody, I’ll look at it. If not, I’m not doing anything… At the end of the day, if you can do a deal that makes sense for the Edmonton Oilers, you do it. If you can’t, you go over (to Europe) and watch him play, and hopefully he scores a lot of goals over there.”

I fail to see any logical comparison between:

– a quote by a new head coach who is about to coach a recently drafted 1st overall, potential generational type d-man, who had a really really really good rookie season and is under contract with the team and seemingly has absolutely no issues with the team or anything related to the team

and

– a quote by a general manager who has a 4th year pro player who has failed to live up to his draft pedigree (with team culpability) and regressed and who the GM has previously mentioned he would welcome back to the organization even after the player mentioned he doesn’t want to play there and then the player subsequently mentions, various times, in various contexts, that he refuses to play for the team and will not sign a contract with the team

OriginalPouzar

Konovalov gets in the win column – stopping 30 of 31 in a 2-1 win.

MacT with his first KHL win!

ArmchairGM

Faulk for Kase looks like a thing.