2019-20 Game Seven: Flyers at Oilers

If the Oilers are going to make the playoffs, then tonight’s game should result in points for the home team. The Philadelphia Flyers played last night in Calgary, and the Oilers were home and dry. It won’t mean a thing after the opening faceoff, and Carter Hart is an emerging story, but a playoff team makes hay when the sun shines.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Lowetide: Ethan Bear’s early success with the Oilers and what it might mean at the trade deadline
  • New Jonathan Willis: How well are the solutions to key Oilers weaknesses working?
  • Dom Luszczyszyn: Is the Oilers’ hot start for real?
  • Lowetide: How will the Oilers compensate when James Neal’s scoring cools off?
  • Lowetide: Raphael Lavoie delivers high-octane offence to lead Oilers prospect performances.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Mike Smith is charged up, and that’s a big reason behind the Oilers’ surprising 5-0 start
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 positives in the Oilers’ 4 wins that may not be sustainable
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ Oscar Klefbom playing tough minutes with inexperienced partners — and looking good doing it
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He’s addicted to getting better’: What the Oilers are saying about Connor McDavid’s amazing start
  • Eric Duhatschek: The lasting impact of The Gretzky Effect, 40 years after his NHL debut
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers who could win (or lose) NHL jobs early in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Several unproven players are earning NHL jobs and increasing roster quality and depth. No balance photo, but some traction early.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why Riley Sheahan could be a key ingredient the Oilers have been missing
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
  • Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 20153-4-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers in October 2016: 6-1-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in October 2017: 2-5-0, goal differential -8
  • Oilers in October 2018: 3-3-1, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2019: 5-1-0, goal differential +6

A win tonight means we might get through October without drama. I won’t have to bring out stories of the Donner Party and talk about Bonnie Raitt’s sad songs. We can talk about hockey, demon liquor, women with terrible judgement and tell lies about our youth. Yes. That would be nice.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

  • At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (3-1-0)
  • At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
  • At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 5-1-0, 10 points after 6 games

The Flyers played just its fourth game of the season last night, a quality start by Philadelphia led by Travis Konecny and young goalie Carter Hart (who we’ll likely see tonight). I had Philly winning this one in my predictions.

OILERS 2019-20 SCORING

OILERS LINES FIVE-ON-FIVE

This is via Natural Stat Trick and offers insight into usage and success. The top line is flying, Puck IQ tells us (not available yet) the McDavid trio is facing massive elite comps and flattening living things. Nuge is also doing fine work, that line will surprise you once the Puck IQ numbers go public. Expected goals are quality for the third and fourth lines, but neither has delivered at five-on-five.

OILERS PAIRINGS FIVE-ON-FIVE

We’re now getting a more accurate view of Dave Tippett’s usage. On defense, the zone start push via faceoffs goes to Klefbom-Persson, while the elites are being handled mostly by Nurse-Bear (via Puck IQ, their numbers will soon be public). The third pair gets the defensive zone starts. This is great information.

CONDORS 2019-20

Kailer Yamamoto is borderline frightening in his AHL domination so far this season, he’s a terror. The four goals lead the American League, while his shot total (16) ranks No. 7 so far. His even strength goal differential (5-0) reflects just how well things are going on the farm. When will we see him in Edmonton?

It’s difficult to find a downbeat among Condors prospects, although Shane Starrett getting hurt is a bummer. Fun team.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. A busy day with lots to discuss. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will discuss the loss to Chicago and tonight’s big game against Philadelphia. Jonah Birenbaum from The Score will talk MLB and the Nationals first World Series berth at 10:40. At 11:05, we chat NFL and MLB with Kris Abbott from Oddsshark. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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542 Responses to "2019-20 Game Seven: Flyers at Oilers"

« Older Comments
  1. drglen says:

    soft call, gotta make it a game.

  2. oilersfan says:

    Happy to see McDavid wake up

    Shouldn’t Neal get an assist on the fifth goal? He jammed it out of Elliot’s pads

  3. drglen says:

    bear on the PK… nice work.

  4. OilClog says:

    When you’re sauced at the pub watching the Oilers finally decimate an opponent on your birthday.. Surrounded by Nuck n flames fans.. Suggesting Lucic for Erick has all parties lit up.. This is excellent.

  5. jp says:

    Manning!!!!

    LOL

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Why is Drai killing penalties in the third period with a 5-1 lead, well, now 6-1 lead?

    5th point of the game for McDavid I believe.

  7. drglen says:

    Manning? !!!!! MANNING MANNNING MANNING!!!!! 6-1 GOALL

    ( portugese soccer announcer voice)

  8. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    YEAHH!!! MANN…ing….
    Oh shit… that doesn’t mean he’s here to stay is he???

  9. oilersfan says:

    Flyers goalies not having a good game at all

  10. BlacqueJacque says:

    OriginalPouzar: Oilers about to go 6-1 but instead of enjoying lets talk about non-sustainability…..

    Aww muffin, would you like me to hold your hand?

    Would you like directions to OilFans or /r/edmontonoilers on Reddit?

  11. Sierra says:

    Nit64:
    ~ Bottom 6 killing us again ~

    Last year it was the bottom 9 and bleeding defensively.

    Progress.

    How are the Oilers being killed? They’re 5-1, trending to 6-1.

  12. oilersfan says:

    McDavid with five points

  13. drglen says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    YEAHH!!! MANN…ing….
    Oh shit…that doesn’t mean he’s here to stay is he???

    lol

  14. Nit64 says:

    drglen:
    Manning? !!!!! MANNING MANNNING MANNING!!!!!6-1GOALL

    ( portugese soccer announcer voice)

    All your base are belong to us

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    Great defensive play by…… James Neal

  16. drglen says:

    watch out… going to nasty slashy here in about 1 minute

  17. drglen says:

    Nit64: All your base are belong to us

    lollollololololl!!!

  18. Nit64 says:

    Sierra: How are the Oilers being killed? They’re 5-1, trending to 6-1.

    You missed the sarc marks. ~~

  19. geowal says:

    I think McDavid breaks 150 pts

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: And Carter Hart currently sports the 5th best GAA in the entire league.

    OriginalPouzar: It will take one 4-5 goal performance (tonight), to change that……

    Done!

  21. jp says:

    OilClog:
    When you’re sauced at the pub watching the Oilers finally decimate an opponent on your birthday.. Surrounded by Nuck n flames fans.. Suggesting Lucic for Erick has all parties lit up.. This is excellent.

    Happy Birthday, enjoy.

    And very well placed trade suggestion!

  22. Pretendergast says:

    BlacqueJacque: Aww muffin, would you like me to hold your hand?

    Would you like directions to OilFans or /r/edmontonoilers on Reddit?

    Where the hell did that outburst come from

  23. oilersfan says:

    Does anybody else think Neal should have got an assist on the fifth goal?

  24. Durag says:

    Basically all this game is missing is Hunter beating up Gritty

  25. jp says:

    geowal:
    I think McDavid breaks 150 pts

    I think Draisaitl breaks 150 😉

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    BlacqueJacque: Aww muffin, would you like me to hold your hand?

    Would you like directions to OilFans or /r/edmontonoilers on Reddit?

    I’m good – thanks for asking though.

    I will look at the standings tomorrow and see the Oilers tied for 1st in the NHL and, as of now, tied for first in goal differential.

    I assume you will be looking at PDO and regression metrics.

  27. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Man… Granlund keeps shooting himself in the foot. Rather have Haas in the lineup no doubt about it.

  28. Nit64 says:

    jp: Suggesting Lucic for Erick

    Truly evil

  29. oilersfan says:

    Happy we are winning but would like to see Granlund benched for Haas next game

    Two dumb penalties now, lost a few battles and turned the puck over too often

  30. flyfish1168 says:

    granlund is horrible

  31. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Manning with more goals than Russell, Haas, Granlund, Khaira, Archibald, Sheahan, and Chiasson combined

  32. geowal says:

    jp: I think Draisaitl breaks 150

    150 for everybody!

  33. drglen says:

    flyfish1168:
    granlund is horrible

    well……… team is winning 6-1… (thanks to Koskinen frankly, and highly erratic philly shooting) but maybe he should spend some time in the box.. like manning, 7 games in the press box, in for a game so he can score a goal….then back out.

  34. LadiesloveSmid says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Manning with more goals than Russell, Haas, Granlund, Khaira, Archibald, Sheahan, and Chiasson combined

    Forgot Jurco too

  35. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m good – thanks for asking though.

    I will look at the standings tomorrow and see the Oilers tied for 1st in the NHL and, as of now, tied for first in goal differential.

    I assume you will be looking at PDO and regression metrics.

    I don’t think Negative Nancy is a Oiler fan.

  36. Nit64 says:

    geowal:
    I think McDavid breaks 150 pts

    For now on pace for 200. Can’t wait til he’s at 100%

  37. Nix says:

    BlacqueJacque: Aww muffin, would you like me to hold your hand?

    Would you like directions to OilFans or /r/edmontonoilers on Reddit?

    Lol…wtf

  38. jp says:

    At least the Flyers can take solace in improving their shot differential tonight.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    DrTaboggan:
    How many teams that rank last in shots per game have made the playoffs?

    Isles were third last in shots last year and made the playoffs (1 shot more than last).

    Caps were in the bottom third in shots.

  40. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Huh… that’s not much of a “hit of the game”…

  41. Nix says:

    oilersfan:
    Happy we are winning but would like to see Granlund benched for Haas next game

    Two dumb penalties now, lost a few battles and turned the puck over too often

    I’m in the Haas fan club too. Thought he was playing well…quick and clever.

  42. oilersfan says:

    Outstanding game by Koskinen

  43. BlacqueJacque says:

    Pretendergast: Where the hell did that outburst come from

    What outburst?

    If someone comes to a blog where people talk advanced stats and like to look underneath surface results, he shouldn’t complain when the people start pointing out that the turd has not just been polished, but gold-plated.

    If Pouzar just wants mindless celebration, Oilfans or Reddit are where it’s at.

  44. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Nix: I’m in the Haas fan club too. Thought he was playing well…quick and clever.

    Plus, he’s our ONLY right shot center… there are way too many left shot players on the team right now… ( not that it seems to be mattering much )

  45. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I’m enjoying the game but I’d love for this team to show signs that it’s going to be a playoff caliber team, not just riding a hot percentage run. McDavid can’t score 5P & Koskinen can’t drop a .975 every night.

    They have a 46% PP & 92% PK! Bank the points while they can but that bottom 6 needs to be worlds better.

  46. geowal says:

    Nit64: For now on pace for 200. Can’t wait til he’s at 100%

    Well, you know, trying to keep things reasonable, following the lead of our host. Figure he’ll regress just below a 150 pt pace (with extra points already on the ledger). Ha!

  47. T0ML says:

    As a typical lurker I have to admit reading game threads can be quite amusing …. from despair to over joy.

    Koskinen looking great.

    Bear looking like I figured he would two years ago, always liked him more than Jones … both very nice prospects for sure.

  48. drglen says:

    Why did we win? Connor.. Leon, Nuge.. Koskinen…. and philly missing about 5 open 10 bell looks. team D improved in the third. 3rd and 4th lines not really visible nor memorable.

    6-2 voracek.

  49. drglen says:

    BlacqueJacque: What outburst?

    If someone comes to a blog where people talk advanced stats and like to look underneath surface results, he shouldn’t complain when the people start pointing out that the turd has not just been polished, but gold-plated.

    If Pouzar just wants mindless celebration, Oilfans or Reddit are where it’s at.

    advanced stats?

    I just come here for Pescador’s one liners.

  50. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    I’m interested to see if Philly will surpass 50 shots and oilers get less than half and still win.

  51. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Wow… oilers really want to stop playing right now???

  52. geowal says:

    T0ML:
    As a typical lurker I have to admit reading game threads can be quite amusing …. from despair to over joy.

    Koskinen looking great.

    Bear looking like I figured he would two years ago, always liked him more than Jones … both very nice prospects for sure.

    Cue the panic and sphincter tightening

  53. Genjutsu says:

    BlacqueJacque: What outburst?

    If someone comes to a blog where people talk advanced stats and like to look underneath surface results, he shouldn’t complain when the people start pointing out that the turd has not just been polished, but gold-plated.

    If Pouzar just wants mindless celebration, Oilfans or Reddit are where it’s at.

    Ah muffin do you need a hug? It’s gonna be okay.

    Okay?

  54. jenga66 says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    Also, Pouzar is not even on here tonight.

  55. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bag skate tomorrow.

    This is a tired road team, surrendered 50+ shots. Koskinen deserves better

  56. Abbeef says:

    Wow, definitely being carried by special teams early! I like the look of the defense with Russell on the third pairing and Persson with Klefbom better than tonight’s pairings.

    As for the sustainability talk obviously a 857 winning percentage isn’t sustainable. Also having no goals from the bottom six 5v5 isn’t sustainable either, sustainability works both ways with aspects that are well above average and below.

  57. Professor Q says:

    Why do the Oilers always have difficulty scoring ENGs?

  58. BlacqueJacque says:

    PDO is going to break its dick off in the Oilers ass at some point this season.

  59. oilersfan says:

    Shots 52-22

    I suspect Tippet won’t be happy despite the win

    Connor and Leon barely played the last 10 minutes and this is how crappy the rest of the team is

    Connor played less than 18 minutes

    Leon less than 20

    Khaira is now minus 4. Not sure he is as good of a checker as we think

  60. jm363561 says:

    52 – 22 shots. This might not be sustainable. Good win, great game by Koskinen.

  61. dangilitis says:

    That was the worst 3 goal win I’ve ever seen. Koskinen deserves all the beers tonight

  62. Professor Q says:

    Is PDO a wrestling team or something?

  63. jenga66 says:

    Happy for the win, but that was a rough 2nd period. Bad luck for Philly missing some great chances, but credit to the Oilers for being able to take advantage of another team’s misfortune. Is that coaching?

  64. jp says:

    Those 2 late goals notwithstanding, Koskinen had a great game tonight.

    Interesting take by Ferraro on NBCSN. He’s been talking lots tonight about needing to shoot high on Koskinen, but not at all mentioning his weak glove. Rather he has talked repeatedly about how good Koskinen is down low and how you’re simply not scoring on him unless you go high.

    Definitely a different perspective on Koskinen and teams adjusting to him.

  65. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Professor Q:
    Why do the Oilers always have difficulty scoring ENGs?

    Huh??? Why is he saying that the Philly lead in this game??? At no point in this game did Philly lead The game. Sportscasters not paying attention…

  66. Nix says:

    jenga66:
    BlacqueJacque,

    Also, Pouzar is not even on here tonight.

    Nice lol

  67. Kmart99 says:

    Professor Q:
    Is PDO a wrestling team or something?

    Professor Q:
    Is PDO a wrestling team or something?

    I believe it is a Christian rock band.

  68. jp says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    PDO is going to break its dick off in the Oilers ass at some point this season.

    LOL. Is that worse for the Oilers? Or…

    Edit: Wait, is that how teams go on full year PDO runs?

  69. Reja says:

    Genjutsu: Ah muffin do you need a hug? It’s gonna be okay.

    Okay?

    I think he’s looking for a bum pat.

  70. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Isles were third last in shots last year and made the playoffs (1 shot more than last).

    Caps were in the bottom third in shots.

    Yeah and the smart money has the Islanders regressing. Most models have them regressing to barely a playoff tram if at all

  71. Ford Prefect says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Huh???Why is he saying that the Philly lead in this game???At no point in this game did Philly lead The game.Sportscastersnot paying attention…

    They have been talking like that since the beginning of the third. We are treated to the worst broadcast team in the nhl.

    *edit :: forgot a word and I like wine

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Bag skate tomorrow.

    This is a tired road team, surrendered 50+ shots. Koskinen deserves better

    Philly played Saturday in Vancouver, had two full days off to recover from their hour flight to Calgary and then to Edmonton.

    I would posit the Oilers have travelled alot more in in the last 5 days and the last 72 hours than Philly

  73. BlacqueJacque says:

    Nix: Nice lol

    … you two clowns realize I quoted him twice? :/

  74. Nix says:

    BlacqueJacque: … you two clowns realize I quoted him twice? :/

    Honk honk

  75. drglen says:

    as a poster pointed out, at least we have a bottom six and not a bottom 9.

    We are getting goaltending. Goaltending plus neutral bottom six plus connon leon nuge neal and friends.. gets us into the playoffs.

    I remember couple years ago the shots and hacks connor was taking.. drew a lot of penalites but so many more that were just not called. That doesn’t seem to be the conversation so far this year.. these liberties ( even without lucic)..

    But I do worry a bit about those 2 being targetted aka deliberate injury. If they stay healthy we make the playoffs. My prediction was 94 points and two good goalies gets us there.

    it’s early, but I remember when the early 80s oilers started winning games and we were like.. ‘what’? Is this real? Turned out it was.

  76. jenga66 says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    No you didn’t. Go home now.

  77. Younger Oil says:

    Has anyone looked into a “Corsi Close” metric, where it measures the even strength Corsi when teams are tied or within one goal of eachother?

    IMO this would be a better representation of how a team drives possession, as it does more to elininate score effects.

  78. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Pre-season keys to the season:

    – Goaltending to be at least NHL average – more than covered so fr

    – James Neal to bounce back to some semblance of a top 6 player – more than covered so far

    – Special Teams to improve, in particular the PK – more than covered so far

    – right side of the defence to hold – more than covered so far

    – depth scoring from the bottom 6 – not covered but the players are not dead weight and are helping on the PK

    Oilers about to go 6-1 but instead of enjoying lets talk about non-sustainability…..

    To each their own but I will enjoy the Oilers scoring a crazy amount of goals and going back to lead the lead in goal differential with 12 points out of a possible 14 and the two leading scorers in the league and Klefbom playing like a Norris candidate, and both goalies playing well and a depth prospect d-man playing like a legit top 4 puck moving RD, etc.

    What’s with people and telling them how to be fans? Who cares.

    The analytically inclined will look at the underlying numbers and say “this doesn’t look great to be honest” who are you to tell them they aren’t enjoying it?

    People like what they like, some people like looking at hockey beyond the final-score, it doesn’t mean they aren’t enjoying it. I’d surmise that is in fact the type of thing they do like to do… hence them doing it.

    I don’t get why this is so hard for some people to understand.

  79. Abbeef says:

    BlacqueJacque: … you two clowns realize I quoted him twice? :/

    You’re aggressive lol, settle down. Carter Hart your nephew?

  80. Mr DeBakey says:

    BlacqueJacque: If Pouzar just wants mindless celebration, Oilfans or Reddit are where it’s at.

    That’s Original Pouzar to you, chum.
    Big difference.

  81. BONE207 says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    If Neal can get an assist, those guys can get a goal.
    Things are a little backward so far. I see Dallas is horrible. Winnipeg struggling. With the Oilers schedule, they might have enough make it. C’mon game 20 & in 1st place.

  82. drglen says:

    much more fun typing GOAL!!!!!! than…. $$%^ $%$#@ @$!@$

    how sweet it is!

  83. Reja says:

    drglen:
    as a poster pointed out,at least we have a bottom six and not a bottom 9.

    We are getting goaltending. Goaltending plus neutral bottom six plus connon leon nuge nealand friends.. gets us into the playoffs.

    I remember couple years ago the shots and hacks connor was taking.. drew a lot of penalites but so many more that were just not called. That doesn’t seem to be the conversation so far this year.. these liberties ( even without lucic)..

    But I do worry a bit about those 2 being targetted aka deliberate injury.If they stay healthy we make the playoffs. My prediction was 94 points and two good goalies gets us there.

    it’s early, but I remember when the early 80s oilers started winning games and we were like.. ‘what’?Is this real? Turned out it was.

    Remember when we had chop wood carry water and we outshot most teams with muffins from everywhere good times.

  84. BlacqueJacque says:

    The days of this blog being the place where smart fans post are obviously long behind it.

  85. Pouzar says:

    BlacqueJacque: If Pouzar just wants mindless celebration

    *best Irish Accent*

    Who da fook is dat???

  86. BONE207 says:

    BlacqueJacque: What outburst?

    If someone comes to a blog where people talk advanced stats and like to look underneath surface results, he shouldn’t complain when the people start pointing out that the turd has not just been polished, but gold-plated.

    If Pouzar just wants mindless celebration, Oilfans or Reddit are where it’s at.

    Mr…I like the cut of your jib…👍

  87. Side says:

    BlacqueJacque is historically angry.

    But is it sustainable?!

  88. Pouzar says:

    flyfish1168:
    granlund is horrible

  89. GMB3 says:

    Younger Oil:
    Has anyone looked into a “Corsi Close” metric, where it measures the even strength Corsi when teams are tied or within one goal of eachother?

    IMO this would be a better representation of how a team drives possession, as it does more to elininate score effects.

    With the game tied, the Oilers are 16th in the league at 50% irt corsi

  90. geowal says:

    GMB3: Yeah and the smart money has the Islanders regressing. Most models have them regressing to barely a playoff tram if at all

    So you’re saying we roll into the playoffs this year and face regression next year unless changes are made.
    Sign me up!

  91. GMB3 says:

    geowal: So you’re saying we roll into the playoffs this year and face regression next year unless changes are made.
    Sign me up!

    If we get vezina caliber goaltending… maybe.

  92. Mr DeBakey says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    The days of this blog being the place where smart fans post are obviously long behind it.

    Its not like it was, but its still pretty good hereabouts.
    The guys [and not-guys] are just having a little fun with, y’know, winning.
    We’ll worry about being outshot by 30 later.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    25 shots in the 3rd for the Flyers after the game was over – score effects.

  94. drglen says:

    Goaltending. Stop the puck. We’re getting it. Winning games. At the end of the day that is why we are above all projections here. Weren’t we tagged as the worst 1-2 tandem in the league.. (was that friedman et al, ?) .. If bottom six gamble ( neutral/even with a chance of scoring… not happening but).. is about as called,.. but Goalie gamble is above what was projected, which is happening, .. this is a playoff team… a most unconventional playoff team, but a playoff team.

  95. rickithebear says:

    Mcdavid 12.5M
    7 gm 5G 12A 17P

    Draisaitl 8.5M
    7gm 6G 9A 15P

    Neal 5.75M + .75 retained
    7gm 8 G 1A 9P

    RNH 6M
    7gm 1G 5A 6P

    Kassian 1.95M
    7gm 3G 3A 6P

    Hall 6M
    6gm 1G 4A 5P

  96. drglen says:

    GMB3: If we get vezina caliber goaltending… maybe.

    +1

  97. Nit64 says:

    Professor Q:
    Is PDO a wrestling team or something?

    Public Displays of Objection

  98. BONE207 says:

    jp:
    Those 2 late goals notwithstanding, Koskinen had a great game tonight.

    Interesting take by Ferraro on NBCSN. He’s been talking lots tonight about needing to shoot high on Koskinen, but not at all mentioning his weak glove. Rather he has talked repeatedly about how good Koskinen is down low and how you’re simply not scoring on him unless you go high.

    Definitely a different perspective on Koskinen and teams adjusting to him.

    Koski should wear a blocker instead of a catching glove. As a kid, a baseball glove worked for me..
    Maybe a lacrosse stick?

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB: What’s with people and telling them how to be fans? Who cares.

    The analytically inclined will look at the underlying numbers and say “this doesn’t look great to be honest” who are you to tell them they aren’t enjoying it?

    People like what they like, some people like looking at hockey beyond the final-score, it doesn’t mean they aren’t enjoying it. I’d surmise that is in fact the type of thing they do like to do… hence them doing it.

    I don’t get why this is so hard for some people to understand.

    “To each their own”.

  100. Side says:

    Starting to wonder if people like stats more than the actual games.

    Hand wringing and getting angry over stats that none of us have any control over.

    And insist on talking about it during an entertaining victory. Good stuff.

  101. Gerta Rauss says:

    Persson concusion protocol 7-10 days per Coach Tippett

  102. Sierra says:

    geowal: So you’re saying we roll into the playoffs this year and face regression next year unless changes are made.
    Sign me up!

    +1

  103. drglen says:

    rickithebear:
    Mcdavid 12.5M
    7 gm 5G 12A 17P

    Draisaitl 8.5M
    7gm 6G 9A 15P

    Neal 5.75M + .75 retained
    7gm 8 G 1A 9P

    RNH 6M
    7gm 1G 5A 6P

    Kassian 1.95M
    7gm 3G 3A 6P

    Hall 6M
    6gm 1G 4A 5P

    oooh… Taylor Hall sneaks in. .. Don’t think we could get him for 6.. but if NJ starts to die away here.. phones might be ringing….

    Would we trade away Kassian? couple years ago we thought he was so overpaid ” 1.95 for a 4th liner) … seems a bargain now. Sustainable… I don’t see why not actually. Zak was 1st rounder, life is together, has his game, his confidence.. I actually don’t see a fall off from Zak. I wouldn’t trade him either. I’d say he has ‘nurse-like’ oilerness.

  104. drglen says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Persson concusion protocol 7-10 days per Coach Tippett

    ah… interesting. concussion 7-10 days… should probably be 2 to 4 weeks.. even more. So…. probably there is a plane coming up from Bake. Who’s on it?

    I say Jones!

  105. Rebillled says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I think mostly referring to them starting their season in Europe.

    Didn’t look good on us last year.

    Koski and the usual suspects get the win tonight.

    Koski undefeated.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    YoungerOil:
    Has anyone looked into a “Corsi Close” metric, where it measures the even strength Corsi when teams are tied or within one goal of eachother?

    IMO this would be a better representation of how a team drives possession, as it does more to elininate score effects.

    NST can be sorted by trailing, leading, up 1, down 1, etc.

  107. BONE207 says:

    GMB3: What’s with people and telling them how to be fans? Who cares.

    The analytically inclined will look at the underlying numbers and say “this doesn’t look great to be honest” who are you to tell them they aren’t enjoying it?

    People like what they like, some people like looking at hockey beyond the final-score, it doesn’t mean they aren’t enjoying it. I’d surmise that is in fact the type of thing they do like to do… hence them doing it.

    I don’t get why this is so hard for some people to understand.

    Well Tippett hasn’t seen the underlying numbers but listening to his post-game, I’d say he wasn’t happy with how the result came about. Wait till he sees the gold plated turd melted down. It may be only a Hershey’s kiss melted in your pocket…

  108. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    25 shots in the 3rd for the Flyers after the game was over – score effects.

    Did you take a piece of paper and mark down how many shots were open and closed ( hit the goalie) in the game.

    Score affect is an embarrassing stat.
    Compared to open and closed differentiation.
    Table scraps!

    High danger open shots are bad ( see most goals)

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’d prefer a Lagesson call-up but, considering they are down 2 right shot d-men, probably Jones.

  110. who says:

    jenga66,

    OriginalPouzar:
    25 shots in the 3rd for the Flyers after the game was over – score effects.

    C’mon OP.
    The Oilers got absolutely smoked in the 2nd period. While it was a 1 goal game. No score effects there.
    Tippett did not look happy in the post game.
    GREAT game by Koskinen!

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rebillled:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I think mostly referring to them starting their season in Europe.

    Didn’t look good on us last year.

    Koski and the usual suspects get the win tonight.

    Koski undefeated.

    Oilers won 3 of 4 after they came back from Europe.

    Philly has been back from Europe for a week and barely travelled in the last 5 days.

  112. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: “To each their own”.

    How hard is it to fathom that some people enjoy looking at the game beyond the final result? You just inferred with your phrasing that it needs to be one or the other. Why not both

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear: Did you take a piece of paper and mark down how many shots were open and closed ( hit the goalie) in the game.

    Score affect is an embarrassing stat.
    Compared to open and closed differentiation.
    Table scraps!

    High danger open shots are bad ( see most goals)

    OK, you get out your notepad and do that.

    I will check out the Oilers in 1st place in the NHL 7 games in.

  114. rickithebear says:

    OP:
    But score affect is the best micro stat to use when all teams play large affect factors the same.

  115. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar: OK, you get out your notepad and do that.

    I will check out the Oilers in 1st place in the NHL 7 games in.

    Duh!

    First thing I did!

    Then discuss large affect break down.

  116. drglen says:

    Tip should not be happy. One thing, he’s even keel in the wins, even keel in the losses. Philly knows they had the oilers number end of first and in second period. They HAD their legs… there was no fatigue , tired, none of that.. Philly was a well oiled machine locking into gear, .. that simply could not finish. Kosk grabbed a few but so many shots 1 inch off. Philly had us… and couldn’t finish. Connor with an all world play, PP connects.. game slips away.

    I hope he’s giving it to them cause most nights, the other team will finish those chances. Philly is a good team, first two lines are equally threatening. They’ll start to get traction.

  117. Professor Q says:

    I think that, once McDavid and Draisaitl finally surpass 150 points in a season, the remarkable bit about it will be that they’d have done it with very poor ENG luck.

    Think about it.

  118. oilersfan says:

    I think tonight’s poor shot battle was due to travel fatigue

    I think shots were 25-18 when the fifth goal was scored so the 27-4 shot drubbing after that was definitely affected by score effects.

    Also, McDavid and Drai barely played the third period

    It is disheartening seeing the bottom six get so badly caved in shot attempts and zone time

    I hope they give Haas a shot over Granlund next game

    Oilers tied with Colorado in the entire nhl for first at five games over .500

  119. JimmyV1965 says:

    On the bright side, I think the Flyers are the best team we play this month, other than the Caps oct. 24.

  120. jp says:

    rickithebear: Did you take a piece of paper and mark down how many shots were open and closed ( hit the goalie) in the game.

    Score affect is an embarrassing stat.
    Compared to open and closed differentiation.
    Table scraps!

    High danger open shots are bad ( see most goals)

    Are you saying:

    1) The Oilers weren’t bad in the 3rd?

    Or,

    2) No one can say anything about anything unless they’ve tracked open/closed shots?

  121. Rebillled says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Ah, I just saw 1 Euro, 1 home, 3 road.

    and I meant the 3-4 start last year.

  122. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: OK, you get out your notepad and do that.

    I will check out the Oilers in 1st place in the NHL 7 games in.

    And 2 teams with 2 digit goal differential. Oilers and Penguins at +10.

  123. Admiral Ackbar says:

    oilersfan:
    I think tonight’s poor shot battle was due to travel fatigue

    I think shots were 25-18 when the fifth goal was scored so the 27-4 shot drubbing after that was definitely affected by score effects.

    Also, McDavid and Drai barely played the third period

    It is disheartening seeing the bottom six get so badly caved in shot attempts and zone time

    I hope they give Haas a shot over Granlund next game

    Oilers tied with Colorado in the entire nhlfor first at five games over .500

    I’m bloody happy looking at the standings. That game didn’t feel like a domination though. They ran up the score for about 4 mins in the 2nd and other than the second half of the 2nd, they were pretty badly outplayed. Koski played well (and got some luck) with his defense colapsing well but the whole team effort to organize themselves out of their zone and through the neutral zone was a bit of a catastrophe waiting to happen.

    That score, with the shooters that the Flyers have, could have been the opposite score tonight.

    I’m happy, I’m elated. But this team has work to do. Tippett can’t be happy with how the ice was tipped tonight. I know we don’t like HDSC, but I’d like to know how many dangerous shots the Flyers had tonight. There were a tonne of point-blank chances. Koski stopped them or they missed the net but we can’t expect that scenario to play out over and over again without an elite goaltender.

  124. kgo says:

    Did anyone else notice Benning seemingly grew eyebrows?

    https://images.app.goo.gl/NazXctZtEh7ifLWL8

    Check out the game tape, late 2nd period, scrum in front of the net there’s a close-up of Benning

  125. Munny says:

    Abbeef:
    Wow, definitely being carried by special teams early! I like the look of the defense with Russell on the third pairing and Persson with Klefbom better than tonight’s pairings.

    As for the sustainability talk obviously a 857 winning percentage isn’t sustainable.Also having no goals from the bottom six 5v5 isn’t sustainable either, sustainability works both ways with aspects that are well above average and below.

    Excellent post.

  126. Munny says:

    BlacqueJacque: PDO is going to break its dick off in the Oilers ass at some point this season

    BlacqueJacque:
    The days of this blog being the place where smart fans post are obviously long behind it.

    Yeah, I think you pretty much proved that last statement correct.

  127. GMB3 says:

    Only 6 games and the on ice shooting % is high but Connolly is crushing it in Florida. Tops on the team in CF %, and 4th in xGF%.

    Looks to be an astute signing early

  128. Pouzar says:

    If we are going with slow and plodding can we at least call up Gagner to center the 4th line?

  129. norm_klassen says:

    #freeganger #bring him home

  130. Wilde says:

    GMB3:
    Only 6 games and the on ice shooting % is high but Connolly is crushing it in Florida. Tops on the team in CF %, and 4th in xGF%.

    Looks to be an astute signing early

    Burakovsky as well. Wanted that player here so bad.

  131. Kmart99 says:

    rickithebear: Did you take a piece of paper and mark down how many shots were open and closed ( hit the goalie) in the game.

    Score affect is an embarrassing stat.
    Compared to open and closed differentiation.
    Table scraps!

    High danger open shots are bad ( see most goals)

    Just want to confirm:

    You are using closed shots as the ones that demonstrate high skill from a goalie since it often represents how well a goalie is able to stay in position and avoid having to move to make a save. So a perfectly placed top corner shot still just hits the shoulder.

    If you are a really good positional goalie most “open” shots should only come from tips.

    I just want to confirm that you are rewarding goalies for elite level positioning.

  132. Dr. Taboggan says:

    I honestly think 2pts/gm is probably sustainable for McD over the course of the season. Unreal player.

  133. Dr. Taboggan says:

    How long until Mardoy, Benson, and Yamo are called up? I would like to see the bottom six score before the end of the season.

  134. russ99 says:

    Dave Tippett rocks, great postgame presser. Tells it like it is, no sugar coating.

  135. Abbeef says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    How long until Marody, Benson, and Yamo are called up? I would like to see the bottom six score before the end of the season.

    I’d like to see a bottom 6 skill line as well (hopefully around Christmas). I would use a combination of Marody/Gagner, Jurco/Benson and Chiasson/Yamamoto. Then have a PK shutdown like of Sheahan, Archibald, and Khaira.

    Haas and Nygaard in the pressbox. Russell sent down and Granlund traded or sent down. Probably won’t even have to move Granlund as there will probably be someone on the IR.

  136. Wilde says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    How long until Mardoy, Benson, and Yamo are called up? I would like to see the bottom six score before the end of the season.

    Two could be called up in some weeks and play on a sheltered line with a vet and probably help the team by about five goals or so 5v5, but I think that’s been ruled out since July so we’ll probably see the singular hottest hand in December unless they’re on an 100pt pace or something weird.

    e: also it’s possible that Marody never gets to play in the NHL / / is traded regardless of AHL performance

  137. Andy Dufresne says:

    leadfarmer:
    What was DSF saying about goals per game philly gave up.
    Other than shutout of Devils they’ve given up 3 or more goals each game

    FUN FACT:

    Im not sure people realize the origin of the handle DSF.

    Actually stands for DiSinFormation. True Story.

  138. judgedrude says:

    I don’t know if it was just me…but after seeing the title “Game Seven: Flyers at Oilers”, I had a blood pressure raising flashback to the 1987 SCF, where we faced off against a young goaltender on fire.

    Too soon to be talking about playoffs?

  139. VanIsleOil says:

    judgedrude:
    I don’t know if it was just me…but after seeing the title “Game Seven: Flyers at Oilers”, I had a blood pressure raising flashback to the 1987 SCF, where we faced off against a young goaltender on fire.

    Too soon to be talking about playoffs?

    haha.. I thought the exact same thing as soon as I read LT’s title….

  140. Andy Dufresne says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I’m enjoying the game but I’d love for this team to show signs that it’s going to be a playoff caliber team, not just riding a hot percentage run. McDavid can’t score 5P & Koskinen can’t drop a .975 every night.

    They have a 46% PP & 92% PK! Bank the points while they can but that bottom 6 needs to be worlds better.

    Rome was not built in a decade.

    #KennysAGrinder

  141. Sierra says:

    russ99:
    Dave Tippett rocks, great postgame presser. Tells it like it is, no sugar coating.

    Said what many, but not all, of us thought he’d say

  142. judgedrude says:

    VanIsleOil: haha.. I thought the exact same thing as soon as I read LT’s title….

    I think that our host missed a great chance for an anecdote about where he was during that game. I was on the road travelling in SK and had to listen to it on the radio.

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