Same as it Ever Was

And we’re back. The formula goes like this: McDavid runs over competition, goalie stops as many of the 50 shots headed his way as he can, and scene. It is not a strong option. We are seeing this Edmonton Oilers team slide back into some bad habits. Pucks are going in the opposition net, but the ice is tilted in the wrong direction. Edmonton’s coach is not having it.

Dave Tippett’s avail last night was stern and somber. Tippett: “You can’t play like that and expect to be a playoff team.” Music!

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: That was pretty sick’: What teammates and opponents are saying about Connor McDavid’s latest goal
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I’m gonna bring a bigger bag with me’: Oilers rookies learn about life on the road in the NHL
  • New Jonathan Willis: A deep dive on the Oilers’ bottom six, which needs to produce more offence
  • New Lowetide: Ethan Bear’s early success with the Oilers and what it might mean at the trade deadline
  • Jonathan Willis: How well are the solutions to key Oilers weaknesses working?
  • Dom Luszczyszyn: Is the Oilers’ hot start for real?
  • Lowetide: How will the Oilers compensate when James Neal’s scoring cools off?
  • Lowetide: Raphael Lavoie delivers high-octane offence to lead Oilers prospect performances.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Mike Smith is charged up, and that’s a big reason behind the Oilers’ surprising 5-0 start
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 positives in the Oilers’ 4 wins that may not be sustainable
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ Oscar Klefbom playing tough minutes with inexperienced partners — and looking good doing it
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He’s addicted to getting better’: What the Oilers are saying about Connor McDavid’s amazing start
  • Eric Duhatschek: The lasting impact of The Gretzky Effect, 40 years after his NHL debut
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers who could win (or lose) NHL jobs early in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Several unproven players are earning NHL jobs and increasing roster quality and depth. No balance photo, but some traction early.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why Riley Sheahan could be a key ingredient the Oilers have been missing
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
  • Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 20153-4-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers in October 2016: 6-1-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in October 2017: 2-5-0, goal differential -8
  • Oilers in October 2018: 3-3-1, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2019: 6-1-0, goal differential +9

It’s uncanny how closely the 2016 experience matches this one. Encouraging, because that team made the playoffs. The team may have to make several trips to the goalie factory this season, though. There were moments last night where I was reminded of that period over Christmas a couple of years ago where the Oilers got outworked and outsmarted. Can’t have that.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (3-1-0)
  • At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
  • At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 6-1-0, 12 points after 7 games

Edmonton could go 1-5-1 in the next seven games and match my prediction for October. These banked points are absolute gold, and it’s fun when the team wins in regulation. Those blasted Bettmans are the life’s blood of this crazy league. All Numbers below via NST.

LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 14:24, went 8-22 Corsi, 6-13 shots, 3-0 goals and 1-8 HDSC. That is the craziest damn stats line I’ve ever seen. All business up front, while a murder is taking place at the back.

Leon Draisaitl scored a goal at five-on-five, plus 1-1-2 on the power play. He played just 19:51, that should be considered a major victory. He spent 2:22 on the PK, need to shave that down. Connor McDavid’s goal was incredible, his five points just the third time he’s managed that total. What a talent. Zack Kassian tackled a man at the 10, picked up an assist and played well.

LINE 2 Alex Chiasson-Nuge-James Neal played 10:45, went 9-6 Corsi, 5-5 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-1 HDSC.

Alex Chiasson kept the puck moving in a good direction but didn’t post any crooked numbers. Nuge went 1-1-2 (he actually scored a second goal but didn’t get credit) and won five of nine faceoffs. James Neal picked up an assist (nice pass on the Bear goal) and played a fairly complete game.

LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 10:45 together, going 6-9 Corsi, 2-7 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-4 HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira was on the PK rotation, that might be the only thing keeping him in the lineup. He was part of a couple of reasonable looks but honestly not much there there right now. Riley Sheahan had 3 TK, five minutes on the PK and won 12 of 22 on the dot. Patrick Russell had the line’s only HDSC, took a penalty and looked comfortable on the line.

LINE 4 Tomas Jurco-Markus Granlund-Josh Archibald played 7:19, going 5-5 Corsi, 2-3 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.

Tomas Jurco had one shot, I liked him with the puck on his stick and in battles. Like Khaira, he needs to move the needle more offensively. Markus Granlund took two penalties and was pedestrian the rest of the time. Josh Archibald will score one day, he keeps getting chances.

OILERS 2019-20

PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 19:01, going 11-21 Corsi, 7-13 shots, 1-1 goals, 1-8 HDSC. Played 8:19 against Giroux-Couturier-Konecny, that line is a handful. Played 6:24 with Nuge, 5:28 with McDavid.

Darnell Nurse skated miles, was very physical, had one giveaway and took an unnecessary penalty. Ethan Bear scored a nice goal, some great passes and two giveaways. This pairing went 2-11 against the Couturier bunch, who are positively frightening. Duo was 9-10 against the other Flyers in Corsi, acceptable numbers considering the fact a rookie is onboard. Four offensive and seven defensive zone starts on faceoffs.

PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Kris Russell played 15:10, going 12-21 Corsi, 5-12 shots, 2-0 goals and 2-5 HDSC. Faceoff zone starts included four offensive and six defensive.

Oscar Klefbom had an assist, two shots and three giveaways (Edmonton had 25 on the night). Russell had a giveaway, the least likely assist in NHL history, two takeaways and eight blocked shots.

PAIRING THREE Brandon Manning and Matt Benning are a mind numbing combination of words for the same pairing. The only thing worse would be a Batt Manning-Mann Benning duo. Played 10:19 together, 7-5 Corsi, 4-4 shots, 1-0 goals and 1-0 HDSC.

Brandon Manning scored a nice goal, I was happy for him. Not his fault he got traded here, one hopes he can continue his career in Edmonton or elsewhere. Matt Benning had a couple of giveaways and a takeaway, he played well in a support role.

GOALIE Mikko Koskinen was outstanding, possibly his best game for the Oilers. Stopped 49 of 52, .942 and at five on five it was 32 of 33, .970. Koskinen won the game. Tippett said he should have been the first, second and third star.

INJURIES

Joel Persson and Joakim Nygard are both out with injury, concussion and ribs, respectively. Seven to 10 days for the blue, two to four weeks for the forward.

The best righty defender in Bakersfield is Evan Bouchard. Edmonton may think it too soon to bring him up and that might mean William Lagesson or Caleb Jones.

Nygard is a speed merchant who can forecheck. The fastest forward on the farm is Ryan McLeod, the team has several men who can forecheck.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning on the Lowdown, starts at 10, TSN1260. Frank Seravalli from TSN will pop in to talk Oilers, Zack Kassian and early season surprises. We’re planning to head out to Bakersfield for a chat about the Condors and possible recalls, and will have plenty of NFL chat, too. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. It’s a fun show! Seriously.

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370 Responses to "Same as it Ever Was"

« Older Comments
  1. rickithebear says:

    Smid:

    Goals are dependent on.
    Forward establishing an individual shot density. That is a per value
    Dman establishing an individual shot density to each side. It is a per value
    Goalies stoping open shots at an individual rate. It is a per value

    Being as each Player has their own individual average how does PDO work.

    How does 2 numbers reflect the individual play of 3 ( yes 3) groups of players.

    I wait for your scientific answer.
    Cause 2 showing 3 is a new science I do not know.

    Using your ( PDO) less variables can define more ( per) variable sclence.
    Do you have a single number that 186 difrent trucks and 31 difrent cars regress to that you can give me to define.

    Trucks Payload (density based)
    And
    Cars braking power ( stopping)

    I look forward to a PDO science answer.

    My position is that Using PDO has zero value.

  2. Bruce McCurdy says:

    jm363561:
    “Russell had a giveaway, and the least likely assist in NHL history,”. A bit harsh. It could also be seen as one of the greatest breakout passes of all time.

    Talking of assists, the no look reverse pass along the back board by Connor to set up Leon’s PP goal was fantastic but seems to have attracted little comment.

    Koski’s game seemed to fall apartlast year after Talbot was traded and his work load increased. I think I have also read that Trip is of the opinion that Smith plays better with regular rest. We might see 1A and 1B tending for some time.

    I mentioned the lob pass by Russell on Twitter last night. My favourite reply stated that if Erik Karlsson had made that pass, many observers would have needed some “alone time”.

    Around here the dislike for Russell remains strong based on the ratio of negative to positive comments in this thread, which is approaching infinity. So here’s a positive one:

    With two RD on the shelf, Russell made the switch to his weak side and into the top four, played 22:51 including a team-high 6:27 on the penalty kill, posted boxcars of 0-1-1, +2 with 2 takeaways & 8 blocked shots. Clearly the primary reason Oilers should have lost.

  3. Darth Tu says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki – With the open/closed shot thing – is a shot from behind the goal line that banks off the goalie into the net open or not?

    I’m trying to understand this open/closed shot thing.

  4. YKOil says:

    OriginalPouzar: In my opinion, the only thing that Katz can be criticized for with regards to ownership of the Oilers is with regard to his choices relating to upper management (hires, not firing, etc.).

    He has always done whatever has been asked of him with respect to the team – he has spent tens of millions of dollars in burying players in the minors, paying multiple coaches and managers, buying players out, signing bonuses, commitments to the AHL team, hiring scouts, etc.

    Agreed. It’s only on the higher level stuff where Katz deserves some flack (the team ‘might’ leave malarkey, the lack of bathrooms in ‘commoner’ section of the arena, etc). Of course, the high level hires have been SO bad it’s sometimes hard to give credit for the good stuff.

  5. dcsj says:

    On the goalies, it seems like the plan is two games on, two games off. At least so far, and so far it seems to be working. Last year one of the knocks was running Koski too much. Maybe a rested Koski is the best way forward

  6. YKOil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I mentioned the lob pass by Russell on Twitter last night. My favourite reply stated that if Erik Karlsson had made that pass, many observers would have needed some “alone time”.

    Around here the dislike for Russell remains strong based on the ratio of negative to positive comments in this thread, which is approaching infinity. So here’s a positive one:

    With two RD on the shelf, Russell made the switch to his weak side and into the top four, played 22:51 including a team-high 6:27 on the penalty kill, posted boxcars of 0-1-1, +2 with 2 takeaways & 8 blocked shots. Clearly the primary reason Oilers should have lost.

    Issue has never been the player to my mind. The contract terms however – amount, length, NMC/NTC provisions – are…. not his fault. The contract terms suck, but they are not his fault so people should stop conflating the two in their assessment of his play (which I am not always fond of admittedly).

  7. GMB3 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    “Leon Draisaitl scored a goal at five-on-five, plus 1-1-2 on the power play. He played just 19:51,”

    “Just” 19:51

    #TheBeastFromtheEast

    #TopTenInTheWorld

    Honestly I’ve been a firm believer that Drai is outside the top 20 in the league but his play this season is changing my mind. He is on an entire different level

  8. Durag says:

    McDavid is the best player in the world and Draisaitl is in the top-2

  9. hunter1909 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I mentioned the lob pass by Russell on Twitter last night. My favourite reply stated that if Erik Karlsson had made that pass, many observers would have needed some “alone time”.

    Around here the dislike for Russell remains strong based on the ratio of negative to positive comments in this thread, which is approaching infinity. So here’s a positive one:

    With two RD on the shelf, Russell made the switch to his weak side and into the top four, played 22:51 including a team-high 6:27 on the penalty kill, posted boxcars of 0-1-1, +2 with 2 takeaways & 8 blocked shots. Clearly the primary reason Oilers should have lost.

    He’s like the Sam Gagner of the defence.

  10. ArmchairGM says:

    Material Elvis: Perhaps because Nurse’s play has been aided by playing with Bear while Klefbom is getting Persson and Russell?It seems like Tippett is trying to shelter the lesser players by playing them with the best defenseman (Klefbom).I wonder what Klefbom’s numbers would look like if he was paired with Bear rather than two borderline NHL’ers.

    They’ve been together for 16:31, so you could look that up on NST to see.

  11. hunter1909 says:

    GMB3: Honestly I’ve been a firm believer that Drai is outside the top 20 in the league but his play this season is changing my mind. He is on an entire different level

    Once Drai made a pass to Yakupov that was so brilliant Yak actually got the puck.

  12. hunter1909 says:

    YKOil: Issue has never been the player to my mind.The contract terms however – amount, length, NMC/NTC provisions – are…. not his fault.The contract terms suck, but they are not his fault so people should stop conflating the two in their assessment of his play (which I am not always fond of admittedly).

    Just for a second I thought you were referring to Draisaitl’s contract.

  13. Profit says:

    As much as these stats seem to be crazy for the Oilers, take a read of Philly’s story. I thought this was helpful to put things in perspective:

    https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2019/10/17/20918437/oilers-6-flyers-3-nhl-observations-recap-analysis-carter-hart-connor-mcdavid-that-sucked

    Couple of interesting snippets:

    The Flyers, through five games, lead the NHL in 5-on-5 Expected Goals For percentage, by a comically wide (and, yes, most likely unsustainable) margin.

    There are almost certainly score effects at play here, even beyond the ones that are theoretically adjusted for in the above numbers. For example, the Flyers put up 25 shots on goal on Koskinen (out of their 52 in total) in the third period alone, a period in which the outcome of the game was never in doubt.

    ——

    Sometimes games end and a combination of good goaltending and bad goaltending is the story. I think this is one of those games. We (myself included) should probably just avoid drawing any substantive conclusions from this one game by itself.

  14. jtblack says:

    been an interesting thread ….

    Same as it always was … sums it up …. Results are there, but is it Smoke (McD / Drai) & Mirrors (Goalering) ???

    Let’s Go Oilers …

  15. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki,

    I can’t say I completely understand your analogy.

    Edmonton’s running at an all situations PDO of 107.4

    The highest in the league last year were the unbelievable lightning at 103.8. The season before was NSH at 102.2

    They do not have the best shooters & best goaltenders of the modern era, they are due to regress. The forwards will score on a lower % of SOG, the goalies will let in more goals.

  16. Glovjuice says:

    McDavid has been lazy in the D-zone this year for many shifts. He needs to get better n his own zone. It’s not ability – it’s laziness at this stage.

  17. Profit says:

    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    10m
    The #Oilers have placed forward Joakim Nygard on Injured Reserve & have recalled defenceman William Lagesson from the
    @Condors

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lagesson recalled.

    My assumption is he plays with Benning in the third pairing and I love that pairing.

    Worries about the top 4 being able to move the puck and create transition opportunities and offensive zone possession but we are where we are.

    I’d prefer:

    Klefbom/Benning
    Nurse/Bear
    Lagesson/Russell

    (call the 2nd pairing the 1st pairing or vica versa, doens’t matter)

    excpect

    Klefbom/Russell
    Nurse/Bear
    Lagesson/Benning

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull: No, as has been shown, and largely ignored, we appear to be riding four guys (Connor, Leon, Koski and Smith) + huge SH% (= great PDO) + luck (getting not so hot goalies against).

    The “bottom six” and the D are a tire fire and WILL bite us in the ass should the four amigos falter in any way or throw out their rabbit’s feet. Or we play against a hot goalie, say like a Crawford?

    Dave, like Hitch and Todd, was right. Playing like last night will get us another draft lottery front seat.

    But you’re right, the roster is first in the league, so yay confirmation bias.

    So, the current roster hasn’t led to a 6-1 record (leading the lead), 2nd in goal scoring and tops in goal differential?

    That’s odd.

    Its also odd that all the good that is happening will regress whereas the bad that is happening will just stay bad.

  20. Zelepukin says:

    GMB3: Honestly I’ve been a firm believer that Drai is outside the top 20 in the league but his play this season is changing my mind. He is on an entire different level

    lol what. Outside the top 20? There hasn’t even been more than 15 different 50 goal scorers in the past 20 years.

  21. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Glovjuice:
    McDavid has been lazy in the D-zone this year for many shifts.He needs to get better n his own zone. It’s not ability – it’s laziness at this stage.

    – Is this a joke? Are you drunk? Or just trolling? Am I missing something

  22. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    16 NHL teams had scouts in the stands, Manning activated and scores a goal. Coincidence?

    They were there mainly to watch the Flyers, so have surplus talent.

  23. Reja says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Is this a joke?Are you drunk?Or just trolling?Am I missing something

    Check the date on the Calendar.

  24. Professor Q says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    rickithebear,

    Ricki,

    I can’t say I completely understand your analogy.

    Edmonton’s running at an all situations PDO of 107.4

    The highest in the league last year were the unbelievable lightning at 103.8. The season before was NSH at 102.2

    They do not have the best shooters & best goaltenders of the modern era, they are due to regress. The forwards will score on a lower % of SOG, the goalies will let in more goals.

    They have pretty good shooters, and the reason why they’re so efficient is due to the crazy good passing to open lanes and breakaways and all that good stuff. They don’t need to all be Ovechkins.

    Why must everyone want them to fail? Why can’t it be that they’re just more efficient due to how they get their goals?

    Maybe they let more goals in, but I don’t think that other teams will magically start preventing them from scoring when they are scoring due to their skill. The amount of chances McDavid alone has gotten over his career (~4-10 per game it seems; imagine if he had that PPG?!) were bound to start paying off.

  25. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne:

    I would love to know the calculus that Tippett employs to understand whether the downside to Granlund is worth his upside on the PK. Same goes for JJ at this point in time.

    The calculus: If McDavid and Draisaitl rock and roll at 2 pts per game, nothing happening in the bottom six is fine if they are PK demons.

  26. Reja says:

    GMB3: Honestly I’ve been a firm believer that Drai is outside the top 20 in the league but his play this season is changing my mind. He is on an entire different level

    Wakey Wakey Cornflakey.

  27. Reja says:

    godot10: The calculus:If McDavid and Draisaitl rock and roll at 2 pts per game, nothing happening in the bottom six is fine if they are PK demons.

    We have something special going on with Connor and Leon I’m going to enjoy the ride. No wonder players especially their wife’s cringe with the thought of signing in Edmonton very negative place to play the last 12 years.

  28. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    New extremely experienced NHL coach, same minor griping about veteran placement, same overplaying of McDavid and Drai.

    Yeah, it’s the roster.

    Remember when Dom claimed the Waiver Wire Boys would outperform Edmonton’s bottom 6 and everyone scoffed?

    Maybe he was exaggerating,but the fact that he could even make the comparison is terrible.

    I don’t think those waiver wire boys could PK.

    For this roster, a strong PK is more important than a bottom six that can score to challenge for a playoff spot.

    Contending will required the roster being fixed.

  29. godot10 says:

    Dino:
    They desperately need bottom 6 scoring. I hope to see them try:

    Nygard Haas Yamo

    As a 3rd line at some point this season. I feel like they would generate more offence than what we have going on right now.

    First rule of Yamo club.

    Do not talk about Yamo till January.

    First rule of Bouch club.

    See First rule of Yamo club.

  30. thehop says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’m paraphrasing but Original Pouzar made a similar observation on this thread this morning.

    Five point night and STILL folks bitch about his play.

    I’ve concluded OP and this other clown don’t understand hockey.

  31. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: They were there mainly to watch the Flyers, so have surplus talent.

    Clearly.

    /s

  32. ArmchairGM says:

    v4ance: Even tho a trade of Hall would just be a pending UFA rental, Dennis King mentioned that a trade of Hall for Nurse might work.

    That’s crazy talk.

  33. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: First rule of Yamo club.

    Do not talk about Yamo till January.

    First rule of Bouch club.

    See First rule of Yamo club.

    More like there are many Oilers fans who are having difficulty watching the best 2 players currently on the same team in the world routinely slaughtering 6/7 of the NHL’s top defences.

    Only beaten by an excellently prepared Hawks team who still remember winning three cups – still it’s not too bad beating up the other 6 teams.

    These kind of Oilers fans remind us they’re like animals who have been trained by scientists to press buttons to receive food etc. Anything less than failure and they start to worry.

    Also, if/when the wheels fall off these fans will be dancing for joy and talking lottery.

  34. jp says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    rickithebear,

    Ricki,

    I can’t say I completely understand your analogy.

    Edmonton’s running at an all situations PDO of 107.4

    The highest in the league last year were the unbelievable lightning at 103.8. The season before was NSH at 102.2

    They do not have the best shooters & best goaltenders of the modern era, they are due to regress. The forwards will score on a lower % of SOG, the goalies will let in more goals.

    That TB number last year was also the highest full year numbers back to 2007-08 (when NST data starts).

    The full list of teams with a full season 1030 or better in the past 12 seasons:
    08-09 Boston 1034
    2013 Toronto 1032 (shortened season)
    18-19 Tampa 1038

  35. hunter1909 says:

    ArmchairGM: That’s crazy talk.

    What about Larsson?

    *runs*

  36. hunter1909 says:

    thehop:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’m paraphrasing but Original Pouzar made a similar observation on this thread this morning.

    Five point night and STILL folks bitch about his play.

    I’ve concluded OP and this other clown don’t understand hockey.

    I get it. Only you understands hockey.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: We have something special going on with Connor and Leon I’m going to enjoy the ride. No wonder players especially their wife’s cringe with the thought of signing in Edmonton very negative place to play the last 12 years.

    His production is off the charts just on its face but we also know that (a) he produces at higher rates in the 2nd half and (b) really, he isn’t firing on all cylinders quite yet – I mean, he only played for 10 minutes last night and he hasn’t been as consistently dominant like he normally is – shift to shift.

    He can play so much better, its kind of scary.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’m paraphrasing but Original Pouzar made a similar observation on this thread this morning.

    Five point night and STILL folks bitch about his play.

    I’ve concluded OP and this other clown don’t understand hockey.

    Agghhhh, a non-hockey understanding clown – thank you for the respectful discussion.

  39. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I mentioned the lob pass by Russell on Twitter last night. My favourite reply stated that if Erik Karlsson had made that pass, many observers would have needed some “alone time”.

    Around here the dislike for Russell remains strong based on the ratio of negative to positive comments in this thread, which is approaching infinity. So here’s a positive one:

    With two RD on the shelf, Russell made the switch to his weak side and into the top four, played 22:51 including a team-high 6:27 on the penalty kill, posted boxcars of 0-1-1, +2 with 2 takeaways & 8 blocked shots. Clearly the primary reason Oilers should have lost.

    I don’t think I’ve been overly critical of Russell over the years, but I thought he was real bad last night. Couldn’t or refused to make a play to get out of the dzone. I’m very skeptical that Russell meant to pass the puck to McDavid. He simply lobbed it out like usual and McDavid caught up to it.

  40. commonfan29 says:

    YKOil: Issue has never been the player to my mind. The contract terms however – amount, length, NMC/NTC provisions – are…. not his fault.

    How do you figure?

    He wanted at least that amount, length and protection on his contract, and he signed the deal. He shares in the responsibility for it, and I think it’s fair to criticize any player for not living up to the contract terms that he demanded.

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    McSorley33:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Never use HDSC for figure anything out.

    They honestly don’t mean anything.
    **********************************************************************
    That is what a lot of teams look at. Paul Maurice said it lots of times
    last year – they focus and track high danger chances.

    Maybe each team has a different way of trackingwhat they call
    High Danger chances?

    He made it sound like they do a version of what David Staples does…

    I’m talking very specifically about Natural Stat Trick’s version of HDSC, which is what most everyone in the public uses.

    Maurice (and Tippett and every other NHL coach) is using an internal version of it that has much more information in it.

    The SportlogIQ data has great stuff and most teams use it.

  42. godot10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I think the financial/accounting term is “sunk cost”.

    The contract cost Katz $28 million in real dollars, not counting as a liability the undesirable contract that was acquired simply to divest.

    The *trade* cost closer to $1 million than $10. Lucic had already been paid out $26 million (not accounting for escrow) for 3 years of “performance” so the team was already $8 million in arrears, that will never be recouped.

    The club retained 4 x $750,000 cap hit, but the actual payout will only be 2/3 of that (commensurate with the $16 million in real dollars remaining vs. $24 million in cap hit.) So 4x $500 = $2 million. From that we can subtract out 4x $250 = $1 million that is Neal’s slightly lower cap hit.

    Not to diminish the bath that Katz took re Lucic, but it can be dated 2015 Jul 01, not 2019 Jul 19.

    Real dollars remaining

    Edmonton: Neal plus Lucic retention is 4 x ($5.75 + 0.750) = 4 x $6,5 = $26 millioni

    Calgary: Lucic ($3 +$4 +$5 + $4) x .875 = $14 million

    vs. no trade:

    Edmonton: Lucic $16 million

    If Lucic and Neal play out their contracts without a buyout Katz took on an extra $10 million real dollars in salary over the next 4 years.

    This $10 million was NOT sunk cost.

    If and when buyouts occur will affect the number somewhat. But Katz took on, in order of magnitude, about $10 million in real dollars in salary in the Lucic Neal deal.

  43. Material Elvis says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Is this a joke?Are you drunk?Or just trolling?Am I missing something

    It must be a troll post. Nobody could possibly be that stupid.

  44. Darth Tu says:

    I’m still digging around the net to find any sort of literature talking about the “open” and “closed” shot theory of Ricki’s. Are there any papers out there dealing with this?

  45. GMB3 says:

    hunter1909: More like there are many Oilers fans who are having difficulty watching the best 2 players currently on the same team in the world routinely slaughtering 6/7 of the NHL’s top defences.

    Only beaten by an excellently prepared Hawks team who still remember winning three cups – still it’s not too bad beating up the other 6 teams.

    These kind of Oilers fans remind us they’re like animals who have been trained by scientists to press buttons to receive food etc. Anything less than failure and they start to worry.

    Also, if/when the wheels fall off these fans will be dancing for joy and talking lottery.

    You into the whiskey today Hunter?

  46. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Getting a good edumacation today!

    Now, WG and Ricki, what do you know about speed matching Variable Frequency Drives on a Pulp Machine and why the load share alarm rang in on the DCS? (Today’s mystery at work!)

    I suspect something fell on the sheet and went through the first nip.

    LOL, JK, thanks for the replies and learning.

    Check the fufu valve.

  47. SwedishPoster says:

    godot10: First rule of Yamo club.

    Do not talk about Yamo till January.

    First rule of Bouch club.

    See First rule of Yamo club.

    So the first rule of Bouch club is do not talk about Yamo til January. Got it

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar:
    Current issues with NHL measuring distances aside why not just use xG?
    As WG said yesterday, it isn’t as good as CF% for predicting future goals but it does
    paint a better picture than HDSC or SC imo.

    XGF% is heavily dependant on shot location.

    You can’t use this year’s xGF% in comparison with previous years.

  49. Darth Tu says:

    SwedishPoster: So the first rule of Bouch club is do not talk about Yamo til January. Got it

    Essentially, ferme la Bouch?

  50. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side:
    Now, I’ll admit I am an Oilers homer and don’t follow every other team as closely as I follow the Oilers.

    But McDavid and Drai look like something special together.As a pair, they always seem to almost create goals out of nowhere and almost come close to scoring at least once a game individually, through sheer will alone.

    I am starting to wonder if, assuming good health for the both of them, if this “unsustainable” production can be sustainable for them.

    I agree.

    Had 97 at a “sustainable” PDO of 1030 with league average goaltending simply due to his ability to increase ONSH%, which is real (and spectacular)

    That pair is the best pair in the NHL in the last 3 years in regards to GF/60 (I think it was posted here)

    The thing is they’ve usually only played half the season together.

    So far this year they are joined at the hip 5v5 so they could easily surpass their career 5v5 results.

    “Who a player plays with” is the single most important variable in their results, even for the elite of the elite.

    If they play together for the whole season…….

  51. kgo says:

    godot10: Real dollars remaining

    Edmonton: Neal plus Lucic retention is 4 x ($5.75 + 0.750)= 4 x $6,5 = $26 millioni

    Calgary: Lucic ($3 +$4 +$5 + $4) x .875 = $14 million

    vs. no trade:

    Edmonton: Lucic $16 million

    If Lucic and Neal play out their contracts without a buyout Katz took on an extra $10 million real dollars in salary over the next 4 years.

    This $10 million was NOT sunk cost.

    If and when buyouts occur will affect the number somewhat.But Katz took on, in order of magnitude, about $10 million in real dollars in salary in the Lucic Neal deal.

    Exactly, I would argue the $3M signing bonus could be included in this calculation too…the trade was likely agreed prior to the bonus payout and only consummated on the stipulation that it was paid by Edmonton.

  52. Justthestatsman says:

    godot10: Real dollars remaining

    Edmonton: Neal plus Lucic retention is 4 x ($5.75 + 0.750)= 4 x $6,5 = $26 millioni

    Calgary: Lucic ($3 +$4 +$5 + $4) x .875 = $14 million

    vs. no trade:

    Edmonton: Lucic $16 million

    If Lucic and Neal play out their contracts without a buyout Katz took on an extra $10 million real dollars in salary over the next 4 years.

    This $10 million was NOT sunk cost.

    If and when buyouts occur will affect the number somewhat.But Katz took on, in order of magnitude, about $10 million in real dollars in salary in the Lucic Neal deal.

    I think Katz is going to get full value for the extra $10 million, whether Neal plays the full four years here or not.

  53. ArmchairGM says:

    hunter1909: lottery.

    Have you SEEN that Byfield kid? I’d LOVE to see him in an Oilers sweater!

  54. Brantford Boy says:

    godot10: First rule of Yamo club.

    Do not talk about Yamo till January.

    First rule of Bouch club.

    See First rule of Yamo club.

    His name was Brandon Manning…
    His name was Matt Benning…
    His name was Batt Manning…
    His name was Mann Benning…

  55. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think I’ve been overly critical of Russell over the years, but I thought he was real bad last night. Couldn’t or refused to make a play to get out of the dzone. I’m very skeptical that Russell meant to pass the puck to McDavid. He simply lobbed it out like usual and McDavid caught up to it.

    Not sure about that. I’m the farthest thing from a Russell apologist, but he clearly took a look prior to lobbing the puck.

  56. Batt Manning (aka GB&Q) says:

    Brantford Boy: His name was Brandon Manning…
    His name was Matt Benning…
    His name was Batt Manning…
    His name was Mann Benning…

    If you say my name three times, I magically appear in the 3rd pairing!

  57. duct tape and foil says:

    Obviously McDavid is a spectacular offensive player, but he’s got work to do in the defensive end. Unfortunately this season he is looking a little too much like last year defensively at even strength, and last year’s results were pretty bad. He’s wearing the C and needs to set the tone in 2 way play if this team wants to develop into anything.

    I have more time for Russel than most, but last night he handled the puck like a hand grenade from almost start to finish. There will be struggles until Lars gets back, and unless you get a short-term upgrade for say Benning and change, we will just have to wait for Bear and Bouch to develop.

  58. hunter1909 says:

    ArmchairGM: Have you SEEN that Byfield kid? I’d LOVE to see him in an Oilers sweater!

    Ha!

  59. ArmchairGM says:

    commonfan29: How do you figure?

    He wanted at least that amount, length and protection on his contract, and he signed the deal. He shares in the responsibility for it, and I think it’s fair to criticize any player for not living up to the contract terms that he demanded.

    Pretty sure Russell has delivered exactly as promised for the 2.1 years of his 4 year contract (so far).

  60. hunter1909 says:

    duct tape and foil: Unfortunately this season he is looking a little too much like last year defensively at even strength, and last year’s results were pretty bad. He’s wearing the C and needs to set the tone in 2 way play if this team wants to develop into anything.

    Ha ha ha this is gold.

    “Oilers fan lowers the boom on the captain.”

  61. kgo says:

    Mike Smith has an interesting career stat…among active NHL goalies, he has the most career PIMs with 119….2nd place only has 68! Gritensity in goal!

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Berglund scored his first of the year for Skelfeeta today in a 3-1 win.

    Broberg only played 13 minutes but was plus 1 with a shot.

    Berglund also plus 1 with a shot (which went in) but played over 17 minutes.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jimmy: I don’t think I’ve been overly critical of Russell over the years, but I thought he was real bad last night. Couldn’t or refused to make a play to get out of the dzone. I’m very skeptical that Russell meant to pass the puck to McDavid. He simply lobbed it out like usual and McDavid caught up to it.

    Russell has been fine in a sheltered third pairing role and he has been very good on the PK, where he’s had top minutes.

    Last night, up the lineup, he was really really bad – just awful at getting the puck out of the zone with possession, like the worst I’ve ever seen him.

    The shift that finished with the McDavid goal was one of the worst shifts by a d-man of the season – twice Russell had full possession of the puck with time and space and failed to make a play, each time essentially giving the puck back to the opposition in the neutral zone. This was with the top line on the ice and I was about to type how Russell is cratering the top line when the goal happened.

    In no way do I think that was a pass, not for one second.

  64. duct tape and foil says:

    hunter1909: Ha ha ha this is gold.

    “Oilers fan lowers the boom on the captain.”

    McDavid was #567 out of 574 players last season in terms of ES GA. The only other forward in the 20 worst was Drai. All others were heavy minute dmen.

    If this team wants to make the playoffs then they need to cut down on GA, a lot, and as captain, McDavid needs to lead the way. If you want a team to “buy into the system” then the top guys have to do it as much as the bottom end players. If the top guys are never criticized then you kill buy-in down the roster.

    McDavid is a spectacular offensive player as we saw last night. Expecting him to be at least a decent defensive player is not a big ask. Especially if making the playoffs depends upon it. Last night PHI shooters were making themselves at home in the high slot time after time and McDavid was nowhere to be seen.

    Hitch got Drai to buy in last year. We wait on McDavid. What do you want? McDavid with 150 point and a lottery pick, or McDavid with 100 points and playoffs? I’ll take the latter.

  65. hunter1909 says:

    duct tape and foil: McDavid was #567 out of 574 players last season in terms of ES GA. The only other forward in the 20 worst was Drai. All others were heavy minute dmen.

    If this team wants to make the playoffs then they need to cut down on GA, a lot, and as captain, McDavid needs to lead the way. If you want a team to “buy into the system” then the top guys have to do it as much as the bottom end players. If the top guys are never criticized then you kill buy-in down the roster.

    McDavid is a spectacular offensive player as we saw last night. Expecting him to be at least a decent defensive player is not a big ask. Especially if making the playoffs depends upon it. Last night PHI shooters were making themselves at home in the high slot time after time and McDavid was nowhere to be seen.

    Hitch got Drai to buy in last year. We wait on McDavid. What do you want? McDavid with 150 point and a lottery pick, or McDavid with 100 points and playoffs? I’ll take the latter.

    Thanks, great argument.

    I just look at 6-1 and expect to see more of this shiny new Oilers hockey team(post Lowe + I forget).

  66. T0ML says:

    Bruce McCurdy: 2:27

    I don’t think anyone responded … but regarding Drai’s PK time last night … we had 6 penalties, Did we have that during his lows in game 3/4? Seems we have had a handful of penalties the last couple, playing ~1/6 of the total PK time isn’t horrible IMO for him, he is probably the best PK’er on the team by far…

  67. Side says:

    duct tape and foil: McDavid was #567 out of 574 players last season in terms of ES GA. The only other forward in the 20 worst was Drai. All others were heavy minute dmen.

    If this team wants to make the playoffs then they need to cut down on GA, a lot, and as captain, McDavid needs to lead the way. If you want a team to “buy into the system” then the top guys have to do it as much as the bottom end players. If the top guys are never criticized then you kill buy-in down the roster.

    McDavid is a spectacular offensive player as we saw last night. Expecting him to be at least a decent defensive player is not a big ask. Especially if making the playoffs depends upon it. Last night PHI shooters were making themselves at home in the high slot time after time and McDavid was nowhere to be seen.

    Hitch got Drai to buy in last year. We wait on McDavid. What do you want? McDavid with 150 point and a lottery pick, or McDavid with 100 points and playoffs? I’ll take the latter.

    Does this take into consideration the 20 something even strength goals marked against him due to Talbot letting the first shot in net shortly after faceoff?

    I’m kidding, but only kind of.

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    By the way, Heinola was remarkably the 3rd best shot-impact per Corsi Close defenseman on his team as a rookie. While playing 18:54.

    Heiskanen was the first reckoning for this stuff, Heinola’s the second. Any more of this missing is going to make me doubt team’s defensemen drafting.

    [Heiskanen was 18:59 in his draft year, #1 on his team in Corsi Close.

    Are you talking about NHL results?

    Heinola has played 5 games in the NHL.

    He was scratched last game.

    He looks like the goods, but if you’re referring to NHL results, it pretty early for that.

    If you’re referring to his results in Liiga, then I get it.

    Which results are you talking about?

  69. Reja says:

    duct tape and foil: McDavid was #567 out of 574 players last season in terms of ES GA. The only other forward in the 20 worst was Drai. All others were heavy minute dmen.

    If this team wants to make the playoffs then they need to cut down on GA, a lot, and as captain, McDavid needs to lead the way. If you want a team to “buy into the system” then the top guys have to do it as much as the bottom end players. If the top guys are never criticized then you kill buy-in down the roster.

    McDavid is a spectacular offensive player as we saw last night. Expecting him to be at least a decent defensive player is not a big ask. Especially if making the playoffs depends upon it. Last night PHI shooters were making themselves at home in the high slot time after time and McDavid was nowhere to be seen.

    Hitch got Drai to buy in last year. We wait on McDavid. What do you want? McDavid with 150 point and a lottery pick, or McDavid with 100 points and playoffs? I’ll take the latter.

    If it was the playoffs he would tighten things up but it’s regular season he’s told to cheat for offence if it leads to out scoring the opposing line. Watch footage of all the leading point getters and how most cheat for offence in fact watch footage of the greatest player ever.

  70. duct tape and foil says:

    hunter1909,

    My hope for McDavid is to be as complete as Crosby. He has the talent. Last year Sid was 82/43 GF/GA at ES and the PIT defense was no murder’s row. That’s a fantastic result and Sid was pushing the river. McDavid was 77/75 last year and he’s simply got to be better this season in his own end.

    Hope Tip has the means to have him buy-in and take a big step toward being a elite 2 way player this year. Last night was a setback despite the score and it’s obvious that Tip feels the same way. Clearly not a happy coach last night or at practice today.

  71. BanffOil says:

    duct tape and foil,

    McDavid was also third in the NHL last season in takeaways- ahead of the Selke and Norris winners.

  72. ArmchairGM says:

    duct tape and foil: What do you want? McDavid with 150 point and a lottery pick, or McDavid with 100 points and playoffs?

    Hmm… that’s a good question. Most of us have written off this year as a “development” year… adding one of Holtz/Byfield/Lafreniere would essentially give us the dynasty we were denied by the Chiarelli era… I think I’d go with the long-term success option.

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    duct tape and foil: McDavid was #567 out of 574 players last season in terms of ES GA. The only other forward in the 20 worst was Drai. All others were heavy minute dmen.

    Is this adjusted for TOI?

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    ArmchairGM: Hmm… that’s a good question. Most of us have written off this year as a “development” year… adding one of Holtz/Byfield/Lafreniere would essentially give us the dynasty we were denied by the Chiarelli era… I think I’d go with the long-term success option.

    On top of that, if we were to sign Hall…

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    TML: I don’t think anyone responded … but regarding Drai’s PK time last night … we had 6 penalties, Did we have that during his lows in game 3/4? Seems we have had a handful of penalties the last couple, playing ~1/6 of the total PK time isn’t horrible IMO for him, he is probably the best PK’er on the team by far…

    Good thought. It was 3rd on the team after Sheahan (5 min PK) and Archibald (over 4 min PK).

  76. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: Real dollars remaining

    Edmonton: Neal plus Lucic retention is 4 x ($5.75 + 0.750)= 4 x $6,5 = $26 millioni

    Calgary: Lucic ($3 +$4 +$5 + $4) x .875 = $14 million

    vs. no trade:

    Edmonton: Lucic $16 million

    If Lucic and Neal play out their contracts without a buyout Katz took on an extra $10 million real dollars in salary over the next 4 years.

    This $10 million was NOT sunk cost.

    If and when buyouts occur will affect the number somewhat.But Katz took on, in order of magnitude, about $10 million in real dollars in salary in the Lucic Neal deal.

    You are correct. I approached this backwards.

    Once the $3 million bonus was paid July 17, Katz was due to “save” $8 million vs. cap over the remaining life of the contract, instead he took one on with no recapture at all. Thanks for setting me straight..

  77. geowal says:

    OriginalPouzar: So, the current roster hasn’t led to a 6-1 record (leading the lead), 2nd in goal scoring and tops in goal differential?

    That’s odd.

    Its also odd that all the good that is happening will regress whereas the bad that is happening will just stay bad.

    Well said. All these new players may well start to play better and (dare to dream), score a goal or 3. I’m happy the team is banking points while we await Larsson to return and the collective to play better D (and get some luck offensively).

    That said, I do appreciate the analysis informing me how precarious this winning run is.

  78. jp says:

    duct tape and foil: McDavid was #567 out of 574 players last season in terms of ES GA. The only other forward in the 20 worst was Drai. All others were heavy minute dmen.

    If this team wants to make the playoffs then they need to cut down on GA, a lot, and as captain, McDavid needs to lead the way. If you want a team to “buy into the system” then the top guys have to do it as much as the bottom end players. If the top guys are never criticized then you kill buy-in down the roster.

    McDavid is a spectacular offensive player as we saw last night. Expecting him to be at least a decent defensive player is not a big ask. Especially if making the playoffs depends upon it. Last night PHI shooters were making themselves at home in the high slot time after time and McDavid was nowhere to be seen.

    Hitch got Drai to buy in last year. We wait on McDavid. What do you want? McDavid with 150 point and a lottery pick, or McDavid with 100 points and playoffs? I’ll take the latter.

    I don’t entirely disagree, but this is overstated IMO.

    McDavid’s 5on5 GA/60 has been (first season to this one): 3.3, 2.1, 2.7, 3.3, 2.5.

    Last year was ugly but he’s been much better before and since.

  79. Material Elvis says:

    duct tape and foil: McDavid was #567 out of 574 players last season in terms of ES GA. The only other forward in the 20 worst was Drai. All others were heavy minute dmen.

    If this team wants to make the playoffs then they need to cut down on GA, a lot, and as captain, McDavid needs to lead the way. If you want a team to “buy into the system” then the top guys have to do it as much as the bottom end players. If the top guys are never criticized then you kill buy-in down the roster.

    McDavid is a spectacular offensive player as we saw last night. Expecting him to be at least a decent defensive player is not a big ask. Especially if making the playoffs depends upon it. Last night PHI shooters were making themselves at home in the high slot time after time and McDavid was nowhere to be seen.

    Hitch got Drai to buy in last year. We wait on McDavid. What do you want? McDavid with 150 point and a lottery pick, or McDavid with 100 points and playoffs? I’ll take the latter.

    Yes, McDavid can improve his defensive zone play. No, that’s not the difference between a contender and a lottery team. Focus on the real issue: lack of overall talent on the roster. A team is only as good as its worst players. This McDavid Dzone deficiency feels like complaining about some wilted lettuce when the steak is burned to a crisp on your plate.

  80. Dee Dee says:

    This Bruins Lightning game has been some pretty good Hockey.

  81. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Is this adjusted for TOI?

    What about the 15 enjoy net goals McDavid was on for.

  82. JimmyV1965 says:

    Dee Dee:
    This Bruins Lightning game has been some pretty good Hockey.

    Again, the only Bruin forwards to record a point play on the first line.

  83. geowal says:

    JimmyV1965: What about the 15 enjoy net goals McDavid was on for.

    Enjoy net goals are the worst

  84. Scungilli Slushy says:

    duct tape and foil: McDavid was #567 out of 574 players last season in terms of ES GA. The only other forward in the 20 worst was Drai. All others were heavy minute dmen.

    If this team wants to make the playoffs then they need to cut down on GA, a lot, and as captain, McDavid needs to lead the way. If you want a team to “buy into the system” then the top guys have to do it as much as the bottom end players. If the top guys are never criticized then you kill buy-in down the roster.

    McDavid is a spectacular offensive player as we saw last night. Expecting him to be at least a decent defensive player is not a big ask. Especially if making the playoffs depends upon it. Last night PHI shooters were making themselves at home in the high slot time after time and McDavid was nowhere to be seen.

    Hitch got Drai to buy in last year. We wait on McDavid. What do you want? McDavid with 150 point and a lottery pick, or McDavid with 100 points and playoffs? I’ll take the latter.

    How do we know what the players are being asked to do?

    Players that score at elite levels aren’t asked to do the same things as the rest of the 99%.

    I don’t think they get a pass, but usage isn’t the same and never has been because scoring or helping others score is the hardest part of the game.

    Also generational players don’t take long to dial in. Most players carry their deficiencies always. Connor has already gone from muffin to deadly shot, gained physical edge and can win faceoffs. He’ll get the two way balance down this season I expect given better stability around the team.

    You can see what Leon has done, and with how much Nuge has developed since his surgery I feel if he had 15 more pounds he’d be challenging O’Reilly for best two way forward, but he doesn’t have the frame for that.

    The bigger question is what will the normal players do? Will Larsson and Khaira find a separation step like Bear did? Will they train the right way to relieve their deficiencies? Will Benson and Marody gain the weight they need and develop NHL shots? Will Jones get his pivots down to an NHL level?

    Will Nygaard Haas Granlund Persson get it together for the NHL game? Will Persson gain the strength he lacks?

    It’s the last pushes that stop NHL careers for many talented players. Bear spoke candidly about his training and that he was in shape he wasn’t in NHL shape previously.

    The org isn’t the problem now.

  85. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Greg Wyshynski
    @wyshynski
    Update on that NHL shot distance story from yesterday: As many in the analytics community have noted, the league found the “glitch” in their system that was counting crease shots and attempts as being several feet away. I was told fix was made Wed night.
    6:24 PM · Oct 17, 2019

  86. Nit64 says:

    geowal: Enjoy net goals are the worst

    First they smile. Next thing you know they slide across the ice on their knees to celly

  87. kdc says:

    Ricki the Bear,
    I am not a climate change denier, I think our climate has been changing for millions of years, with and without man’s input. But I would love to hear more of the climate Scientologist’s selective use of data in their modelling. I think most people have an opinion one way or another, blindly accepting or rejecting the IPCC’s slant on things.
    How can I get more info from you. Keep in mind I am a layman not a scientist.

  88. Munny says:

    Pouzar:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Greg Wyshynski
    @wyshynski
    Update on that NHL shot distance story from yesterday: As many in the analytics community have noted, the league found the “glitch” in their system that was counting crease shots and attempts as being several feet away. I was told fix was made Wed night.
    6:24 PM · Oct 17, 2019

    This is good news. But it doesn’t mitigate the problem with HDSC and xGF not taking into account puck movement and goalie movement, which are major contributing factors to actual scoring chances.

    I was unaware of this till WG pointed it out the other day.

  89. Munny says:

    duct tape and foil: McDavid was #567 out of 574 players last season in terms of ES GA. The only other forward in the 20 worst was Drai. All others were heavy minute dmen.

    The two heaviest minute forwards had the highest counting stats? You don’t say….

  90. duct tape and foil says:

    Here is ES GF/GA for last season for select centers:

    Tavares 83/56
    Crosby 82/43
    Point 72/35
    Seguin 60/36
    Aho 63/38
    O’Reilly 61/37
    MacKinnon 67/46

    Barkov 70/64
    Giroux 68/60
    Monahan 65/58
    McDavid 77/75
    Scheifele 59/56
    Eichel 62/63
    Matthews 55/58
    Couture 59/64

    The guys in the top group are putting up elite out-scoring results and Crosby is obviously a beast. MacKinnon is doing really well for a young guy. McDavid is mid-pack in the second group (best GF / worst GA). I want McDavid to be in the top group and I expect so does Tip. He’s got to get a lot better defensively to be an elite 2 way guy, and MacKinnon is probably the better all-round young center right now. I would not bet against him getting there, but he’s got some work to do.

  91. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: Agghhhh, a non-hockey understanding clown –

    I’m with you, those are the worst kinds of clowns

  92. duct tape and foil says:

    Munny: The two heaviest minute forwards had the highest counting stats?You don’t say….

    Crosby 1253 ES TOI / 43 GA
    McDavid 1362 ES TOI / 75 GA

  93. Dr. Taboggan says:

    duct tape and foil,

    I mean most of the players in the top group play for better teams. That cannot be understated. They also play less minutes. McDavid has to deal with others team top players all the time. When teams play the Leafs they have to worry about Tavares’ line and Matthews’ line.

    I would also love to see the on-ice save % beside all those players. I bet McD’s is one of the lowest.

  94. Munny says:

    Bruce McCurdy: 7 of 9** came on the first unit PP.

    Borg sex. I’m feeling the same way about our special teams. Assimilated.

  95. Side says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Here is ES GF/GA for last season for select centers:

    Tavares 83/56
    Crosby 82/43
    Point 72/35
    Seguin 60/36
    Aho 63/38
    O’Reilly 61/37
    MacKinnon 67/46

    Barkov 70/64
    Giroux 68/60
    Monahan 65/58
    McDavid 77/75
    Scheifele 59/56
    Eichel 62/63
    Matthews 55/58
    Couture 59/64

    The guys in the top group are putting up elite out-scoring results and Crosby is obviously a beast. MacKinnon is doing really well for a young guy. McDavid is mid-pack in the second group (best GF / worst GA). I want McDavid to be in the top group and I expect so does Tip. He’s got to get a lot better defensively to be an elite 2 way guy, and MacKinnon is probably the better all-round young center right now. I would not bet against him getting there, but he’s got some work to do.

    The guys in the top group also played for much better teams with much better goalies.

    I am also wondering why you are only looking at last season’s data only?

  96. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Here are the corresponding on-ice save %

    So it looks like most of the top group benefitted from goaltending.

    Although I was wrong, McD is not the lowest.

    Tavares 83/56 – 92.21
    Crosby 82/43 – 92.81
    Point 72/35 – 92.81
    Seguin 60/36 – 94.68
    Aho 63/38 – 93.14
    O’Reilly 61/37 – 93.39
    MacKinnon 67/46 – 93.44

    Barkov 70/64 – 90.02
    Giroux 68/60 – 91.18
    Monahan 65/58 – 89.81
    McDavid 77/75 – 90.27
    Scheifele 59/56 – 92.37
    Eichel 62/63 – 90.43
    Matthews 55/58 – 90.07
    Couture 59/64 – 88.13

  97. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Side,

    Yes, exactly.

  98. drglen says:

    Just wondering if there is any news on a D call up from the Bake?

    Any news on Haas drawing back in ?

  99. Glovjuice says:

    Looks like the 97-needs to be better defensively posters have generated lots of worthy discussion here today.

  100. Munny says:

    oilersfan: i would like to point out what i saw while watching the game…the oilers looked very tired and were slow to the pucks. Normally excellent skaters like Nurse and Connor last a few races to pucks in the first half of the second. Bob said on Tuesday they got in at 2 am on Monday night. These are humans. With the minutes that Leon and Connor played in Chicago i am not surprised at all that they were somewhat sluggish in parts of the game. Despite all the points it was connor’s line that got owned in the corsi battle up to the end of the second period.
    When the 5-1 goal was scored the shots were 25-18 for Philly. So from that point on the shots were 27-4. Between being tired and the score being a blowout i can see why human nature would cause them to not win some of the battles and races to pucks.

    Very good post and shows why we shouldn’t put too much weight on performance in one game.

    Add in a defenseman switching to his opposite side for the first time in months, after spending time getting re-accustomed to his natural side.

    Injuries mixing up the line up.

    Brandon Manning needing to start. Like on the ice and everything.

    Back in the 80s the Dynasty would look like shit for a whole game, flip on the afterburners for five, ten minutes and walk away with a win.

    That’s what goaltending and top talent can do for you. Win games when the legs are dead and the line-up muddled.

    Thank the Gords we had both last night and can bank the two points.

  101. jp says:

    Side:
    I know I have read a lot about Edmonton’s bottom 6 being the worst in the league, but looking around the league at a high level at this point seems to show that there are many other teams with poor production from their bottom 6 (and top 6, apparently).

    What is the expected production out of a “bottom 6” for a team at this point?

    There’s more than one way to answer this question (I think the most important is what you generate minus what you give up).

    Looking at the simplest measures of production is fairly easy though, (all situations goals and points).

    18-19 NHL average goal and point production from F1, F2, F3, etc (ie – the 15th, 46th, 77th forward and so on):
    F1 – 38, 89
    F2 – 29, 72
    F3 – 24, 56
    F4 – 21, 47
    F5 – 18, 40
    F6 – 15, 35
    F7 – 13, 31
    F8 – 12, 26
    F9 – 11, 23
    F10 – 8, 20
    F11 – 7, 17
    F12 – 6, 13
    F13 – 4, 9
    F14 – 3, 7
    F15 – 2, 4

    If we total F7 through F15 that’s 66 goals and 150 points across 82 games. So per game the average bottom 6 scores a bit less than 1 goal and 2 points per game. Projecting the numbers across 7 games (like the Oilers have played) gives an expected production of 5.6 goals and 12.8 points from the bottom 6.

    Using the same simplistic 7th-15th scorer count, the Oilers group has produced 0G and 2A. Yikes!

    The flip side is that the top 6F “should” have produced 12.4 goals and 28.9 points.

    Just Neal + Draisaitl have beaten the average top 6 in goals, while McDavid + Draisaitl have bested a normal top 6 points wise. As a group the Oilers “top 6” have scored 24 goals and 55 points. Wow! (damn close to twice the production of an average top 6).

    As we know the Oilers are near the top of the league in goals/game so far so it’s working for now but the bottom of the lineup has to pick it up at some point.

    One thing that I think could be more important than we realize in the lack of bottom 6 scoring is that the Oilers group is getting literally zero PP time. I suspect there are a player or 2 from the bottom 6 of most teams that are getting at least PP2 minutes. PP2 essentially doesn’t exist for the Oilers.

    Anyway, the Oilers bottom 6 is woefully off pace.
    The Oilers top 6 is staggeringly ahead of pace.
    And the lack of PP2 opportunity is very likely hurting the Oilers bottom 6 scoring relative to the league.
    I’m taking some good and some bad (even as it relates to the bottom 6) from this.

  102. drglen says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Here are the corresponding on-ice save %

    So it looks like most of the top group benefitted from goaltending.

    Although I was wrong, McD is not the lowest.

    Tavares 83/56 – 92.21
    Crosby 82/43 – 92.81
    Point 72/35 – 92.81
    Seguin 60/36 – 94.68
    Aho 63/38 – 93.14
    O’Reilly 61/37 – 93.39
    MacKinnon 67/46 – 93.44

    Barkov 70/64 – 90.02
    Giroux 68/60 – 91.18
    Monahan 65/58 – 89.81
    McDavid 77/75 – 90.27
    Scheifele 59/56 – 92.37
    Eichel 62/63 – 90.43
    Matthews 55/58 – 90.07
    Couture 59/64 – 88.13

    hey, not a stats guy, but that GF/GA with this save on ice save percentage stat, is actually pretty amazing. The one that surprises me the most is Sequin! Goaltending, D, and breakouts that actually work and not resulting in 400 defensive zone face offs per season.

  103. hunter1909 says:

    duct tape and foil: Crosby 1253 ES TOI / 43 GA
    McDavid 1362 ES TOI / 75 GA

    You take a single statistic blow it up out of proportion then scream murder because from where I sit I’d like to see more than a single stat cherry picked out of a “Team Sport” being used as prima facie evidence.

  104. hunter1909 says:

    Any stats on: Opposition players terrified every time McDavid’s on the ice/60

    Also: Opposition players terrified every time McDavid’s resting/60

  105. Munny says:

    Pescador,

    Have a bottle of Erdinger and a bottle of Golden Pheasant chilling in the fridge for tomorrow night.

  106. duct tape and foil says:

    Nobody is going to confuse McDavid with an elite defensive player, but this is year 5 in the league so the expectations are increased. Last night was an example. He made rare trips to the slot last night, and when he did go down low, he was getting out-muscled and out-worked along the boards. Maybe he’s still protecting his knee.

    He’s a generational offensive talent who needs to work on his two way game to be in the conversation for a place with the game’s great players. If he wants to get there, and I bet he does, he’s got to improve defensively. Guys like McDavid don’t need to be babied though. He knows the issues and so does his coach.

  107. duct tape and foil says:

    hunter1909,

    The game is about scoring goals and preventing goals. The former is obvious and worshipped. The latter is ignored by most fans. Winners are good at both.

  108. jp says:

    hunter1909:
    Any stats on: Opposition players terrified every time McDavid’s on the ice/60

    Also: Opposition players terrified every time McDavid’s resting/60

    There’s zero question this is a more accurate representation of McDavid’s game.

  109. Dr. Taboggan says:

    duct tape and foil,

    Look at the modified list I posted. Goaltending matters.

  110. Side says:

    jp,

    Thank you for all of that. It’s interesting to look at.

    I’m curious to see how the bottom 6 will perform after 20 games with some consistent lines and less injuries impacting the lineup.

  111. Side says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Nobody is going to confuse McDavid with an elite defensive player, but this is year 5 in the league so the expectations are increased. Last night was an example. He made rare trips to the slot last night, and when he did go down low, he was getting out-muscled and out-worked along the boards. Maybe he’s still protecting his knee.

    He’s a generational offensive talent who needs to work on his two way game to be in the conversation for a place with the game’s great players. If he wants to get there, and I bet he does, he’s got to improve defensively. Guys like McDavid don’t need to be babied though. He knows the issues and so does his coach.

    Then provide 5 years of stats for the players you value more defensively than McDavid, and also do a comparison on their stats at the same age, and maybe factor in goaltending % if you’re going to look at purely ES/GA and include TOI.

    So far your argument is based on one game last night and last seasons data only.

  112. Munny says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    duct tape and foil,

    Look at the modified list I posted. Goaltending matters.

    Yes it does, as does total TOI, as do EN goals.

    Rates rather than counts, ENers excluded and GA adjusted for League average tending would be much better than the original stat presented.

  113. jp says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Here is ES GF/GA for last season for select centers:

    Tavares 83/56
    Crosby 82/43
    Point 72/35
    Seguin 60/36
    Aho 63/38
    O’Reilly 61/37
    MacKinnon 67/46

    Barkov 70/64
    Giroux 68/60
    Monahan 65/58
    McDavid 77/75
    Scheifele 59/56
    Eichel 62/63
    Matthews 55/58
    Couture 59/64

    The guys in the top group are putting up elite out-scoring results and Crosby is obviously a beast. MacKinnon is doing really well for a young guy. McDavid is mid-pack in the second group (best GF / worst GA). I want McDavid to be in the top group and I expect so does Tip. He’s got to get a lot better defensively to be an elite 2 way guy, and MacKinnon is probably the better all-round young center right now. I would not bet against him getting there, but he’s got some work to do.

    As others have said, you need to look over more than 1 year.

    And 5 on 5 goal differential is what you’re showing, so to simplify I’ll show goal differential for a few of the players you list (from last year):
    Tavares +27
    Crosby +39
    Point +27
    MacKinnon +21
    ————————
    Monahan +8
    McDavid +2
    Scheifele +3

    What about that same group in 16-17:
    Tavares +7
    Crosby +18
    Point +6
    MacKinnon -9
    ————————
    Monahan +4
    McDavid +30
    Scheifele +13

    Again for 17-18:
    Tavares -3
    Crosby -7
    Point +19
    MacKinnon +17
    ————————
    Monahan +13
    McDavid +20
    Scheifele +13

    For fun, early returns on 19-20:
    Tavares -5
    Crosby +2
    Point +3
    MacKinnon even
    ————————
    Monahan +1
    McDavid +5
    Scheifele even

    Well shit, McDavid has the best goal differential in all 3 of the years you didn’t list. Huh. (by the way I really did just pick the first 3 names from the top group, the 2 names around McDavid in the bottom group, plus MacKinnon since you think he’s better than McDavid)

    Anyway, I agree that McDavid could, and will improve his defensive game. But you’re terribly exaggerating the issue and cherry picking numbers that aren’t representative. The grass is always greener, let’s enjoy what we have.

  114. GMB3 says:

    jp,

    It does raise the question as to why his GD at 5v5 took such a hit last year. Hitchcock’s system? Or too many minutes in too many games that didn’t matter?

  115. jp says:

    Side:
    jp,

    Thank you for all of that. It’s interesting to look at.

    I’m curious to see how the bottom 6 will perform after 20 games with some consistent lines and less injuries impacting the lineup.

    Yeah I’m curious too.

    I really don’t think they’re either: 1) as bad as they’ve shown so far, or 2) as bad as last year. But I could be wrong.

  116. JimmyV1965 says:

    geowal: Enjoy net goals are the worst

    They really are. Lol

  117. frjohnk says:

    jp: As others have said, you need to look over more than 1 year.

    And 5 on 5 goal differential is what you’re showing, so to simplify I’ll show goal differential for a few of the players you list (from last year):
    Tavares +27
    Crosby +39
    Point +27
    MacKinnon +21
    ————————
    Monahan +8
    McDavid +2
    Scheifele +3

    What about that same group in 16-17:
    Tavares +7
    Crosby +18
    Point +6
    MacKinnon -9
    ————————
    Monahan +4
    McDavid +30
    Scheifele +13

    Again for 17-18:
    Tavares -3
    Crosby -7
    Point +19
    MacKinnon +17
    ————————
    Monahan +13
    McDavid +20
    Scheifele +13

    For fun, early returns on 19-20:
    Tavares -5
    Crosby +2
    Point +3
    MacKinnon even
    ————————
    Monahan +1
    McDavid +5
    Scheifele even

    Well shit, McDavid has the best goal differential in all 3 of the years you didn’t list. Huh. (by the way I really did just pick the first 3 names from the top group, the 2 names around McDavid in the bottom group, plus MacKinnon since you think he’s better than McDavid)

    Anyway, I agree that McDavid could, and will improve his defensive game. But you’re terribly exaggerating the issue and cherry picking numbers that aren’t representative. The grass is always greener, let’s enjoy what we have.

    Dissecting the GA/60 with McDavid a bit further and we find this
    Last year McDavid with
    -Koskinen in net the GA/60 was 3.71
    -Talbot in net the GA/60 was 2.51
    -In 17-18, McDavids GA/60 with Talbot in net was 3.14
    -In 16-17, McDavids GA/60 with Talbot in net was 2.09.

  118. jp says:

    GMB3:
    jp,

    It does raise the question as to why his GD at 5v5 took such a hit last year. Hitchcock’s system? Or too many minutes in too many games that didn’t matter?

    Yup, that’s an greatt question for sure. Agree it could be system and/or fatigue. Zack Kassian has also been floated as a factor. And Dr. Taboggan is rightfully pointing to SV% (much lower last year than before/after). It could also just be blind damned luck. Whatever the case, if the GD just fixes itself we’ve got nothing to complain about.

  119. JimmyV1965 says:

    kdc:
    Ricki the Bear,
    I am not a climate change denier, I think our climate has been changing for millions of years, with and without man’s input. But I would love to hear more of the climate Scientologist’s selective use of data in their modelling. I think most people have an opinion one way or another, blindly accepting or rejecting the IPCC’s slant on things.
    How can I get more info from you. Keep in mind I am a layman not a scientist.

    If you truly want to get informed about climate change, visit Climate Etc hosted by Dr. Judith Curry. Lots of unbiased and well reasoned info. And while they’re all about the math at that site, they make it easy to understand for lay people.

  120. GMB3 says:

    jp: Yup, that’s an greatt question for sure. Agree it could be system and/or fatigue. Zack Kassian has also been floated as a factor. And Dr. Taboggan is rightfully pointing to SV% (much lower last year than before/after). It could also just be blind damned luck. Whatever the case, if the GD just fixes itself we’ve got nothing to complain about.

    That was one of my biggest hopes for improvement this year. If McDavud is around +25 GD at 5v5, we could see the team apparoach a GD of 0. Throw in some loser points and how weak the division and conference is, battling for the 7-8 seed is definitely plausible

  121. frjohnk says:

    GMB3: It does raise the question as to why his GD at 5v5 took such a hit last year.

    A combination of
    -Koskinen being overworked, having some issues he needed to work on,
    -D not being good enough because of injuries and lack of depth

    I also think McDavid and Drai were overworked and this led to goals being scored against them that maybe wouldnt have happened if they had played less minutes.

  122. JimmyV1965 says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    duct tape and foil,

    I mean most of the players in the top group play for better teams. That cannot be understated. They also play less minutes. McDavid has to deal with others team top players all the time. When teams play the Leafs they have to worry about Tavares’ line and Matthews’ line.

    I would also love to see the on-ice save % beside all those players. I bet McD’s is one of the lowest.

    This IMO is the crux of the issue. Good players and bad teams put up relatively worse numbers than good players on good teams. Sure, McDavid can improve his defensive game, but I don’t think the numbers tell the whole story. I’ve mentioned this a couple times; it will be interesting to see Trouba’s possession numbers going from the Jets to the Rangers.

  123. jp says:

    GMB3,

    frjohnk,

    Agreed, and so far so good.

  124. GMB3 says:

    frjohnk: A combination of
    -Koskinen being overworked, having some issues he needed to work on,
    -D not being good enough because of injuries and lack of depth

    I also think McDavid and Drai were overworked and this led to goals being scored against them that maybe wouldnt have happened if they had played less minutes.

    Looking at RAPM, McDavids xGA doesn’t look very good either though, so I find it hard to find fault in goalie save % as the main factor.

    As much as I love McDavid, his defensive #’s there aren’t strong post 16/17

  125. judgedrude says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I know it is a sign of the time, but Bruce, I don’t think a post with sarcasm can truly be counted as “positive”.

  126. frjohnk says:

    GMB3: Looking at RAPM, McDavids xGA doesn’t look very good either though, so I find it hard to find fault in goalie save % as the main factor.

    As much as I love McDavid, his defensive #’s there aren’t strong post 16/17

    On my phone now

    Just wondering what the XGA was for years prior to last year.

  127. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    So apparently the oilers aren’t the only team to get severely outplayed in and out-shot and win. As I’m typing this, shots are 47-21 for LA, but score is 3-0 Buf. With 4 min to go.

    Edit: shots end up 47-24 LA, Buf wins 3-0.

  128. Pescador says:

    Munny:
    Pescador,

    Have a bottle of Erdinger and a bottle of Golden Pheasant chilling in the fridge for tomorrow night.

    Well then you’re a lucky man,
    Pro tip:
    Find a 250ml glass, keep the other half in the fridge.
    If you ever need anything else, I consider myself somewhat of a beer drinking expert.
    When I have more time I’ll post one of my theories that I invented.
    I call it: Open bottle, Closed bottle

  129. Bruce McCurdy says:

    judgedrude:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    I know it is a sign of the time, but Bruce, I don’t think a post with sarcasm can truly be counted as “positive”.

    My post was positive, & no sarcasm was intended. Not ’til the final sentence, at least.

  130. GMB3 says:

    frjohnk: On my phone now

    Just wondering what the XGA was for years prior to last year.

    RAPM uses standard deviations. 2.3 below replacement in 17-18, 16-17 was a little less than 1 above, rookie year was about .7 below

  131. Bruce McCurdy says:

    McDavid did have a rough time of it defensively last year, especially in the second half of the season. Not fair to measure gross totals & especially ENGA, but on a per-60 basis at 5v5 there were 529 skaters who logged at least 300 minutes over their teams’ final 41 games, & McDavid ranked 529th at 4.24 GA/60.

    I posted the data & wrote about it here in a larger post about the Big Three that detailed some remarkable facts about the Oilers’ over-reliance on the trio. One takeaway was that they (McD & Drai in particular) may have gotten worn down by excessive ice time, which has only gotten more extreme early in 2019-20.

    Bottom line, his 200-foot game remains a work in progress. At some point Ken Holland may feel compelled to relate The Legend of Stevie Y.

  132. JimmyV1965 says:

    defmn:
    Things getting testy in Minnesota already.

    https://www.tsn.ca/minnesota-wild-s-jason-zucker-calls-out-bruce-boudreau-rest-of-team-after-loss-1.1382994

    What’s the saying? There’s winning and then there’s misery.

  133. Munny says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Pretty sure Draisaitl got the DVD boxed set from Coach Hitch last Christmas. It was narrated by Scotty Bowman though…

  134. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Are you talking about NHL results?

    Heinola has played 5 games in the NHL.

    He was scratched last game.

    He looks like the goods, but if you’re referring to NHL results, it pretty early for that.

    If you’re referring to his results in Liiga, then I get it.

    Which results are you talking about?

    Their shot impacts in their draft year in the Liiga

  135. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965:

    If you truly want to get informed about climate change, visit Climate Etc hosted by Dr. Judith Curry. Lots of unbiased and well reasoned info. And while they’re all about the math at that site, they make it easy to understand for lay people.

    I’d say ‘truly informed’ would be also reading those who disagree with Curry.

  136. ArmchairGM says:

    Glovjuice:
    Looks like the 97-needs to be better defensively posters have generated lots of worthy discussion here today.

    Conclusion: McDavid should play all 6 positions concurrently, or he sucks.

  137. jp says:

    frjohnk: On my phone now

    Just wondering what the XGA was for years prior to last year.

    GA/60
    15-16 3.30
    16-17 2.14
    17-18 2.72
    18-19 3.30
    19-20 2.54

    xGA/60 (from NST)
    15-16 2.38
    16-17 2.21
    17-18 2.64
    18-19 2.75
    19-20 2.84

  138. Wilde says:

    Just caught a funny Yamamoto moment while early-morning tracking the last Condors game I forgot about:

    https://streamable.com/l7nkr

    [ this was during a penalty kill by the way, just remembered that the AHL doesn’t put anything on the screen that tells you it’s not 5v5 😐 ]

    I mentioned this on twitter when I posted it there, but his quickness is so profoundly dominant at this level that I think the main use of his extended time dominating down there will be to have his brain properly work out how to best abuse the smaller amount of windows he’ll get to make plays in the NHL because they’re pretty close in type; just more few and far between

  139. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: There’s more than one way to answer this question (I think the most important is what you generate minus what you give up).

    Looking at the simplest measures of production is fairly easy though, (all situations goals and points).

    18-19 NHL average goal and point production from F1, F2, F3, etc (ie – the 15th, 46th, 77th forward and so on):
    F1 – 38, 89
    F2 – 29, 72
    F3 – 24, 56
    F4 – 21, 47
    F5 – 18, 40
    F6 – 15, 35
    F7 – 13, 31
    F8 – 12, 26
    F9 – 11, 23
    F10 – 8, 20
    F11 – 7, 17
    F12 – 6, 13
    F13 – 4, 9
    F14 – 3, 7
    F15 – 2, 4

    If we total F7 through F15 that’s 66 goals and 150 points across 82 games. So per game the average bottom 6 scores a bit less than 1 goal and 2 points per game. Projecting the numbers across 7 games (like the Oilers have played) gives an expected production of 5.6 goals and 12.8 points from the bottom 6.

    Using the same simplistic 7th-15th scorer count, the Oilers group has produced 0G and 2A. Yikes!

    The flip side is that the top 6F “should” have produced 12.4 goals and 28.9 points.

    Just Neal + Draisaitl have beaten the average top 6 in goals, while McDavid + Draisaitl have bested a normal top 6 points wise. As a group the Oilers “top 6” have scored 24 goals and 55 points. Wow! (damn close to twice the production of an average top 6).

    As we know the Oilers are near the top of the league in goals/game so far so it’s working for now but the bottom of the lineup has to pick it up at some point.

    One thing that I think could be more important than we realize in the lack of bottom 6 scoring is that the Oilers group is getting literally zero PP time. I suspect there are a player or 2 from the bottom 6 of most teams that are getting at least PP2 minutes. PP2 essentially doesn’t exist for the Oilers.

    Anyway, the Oilers bottom 6 is woefully off pace.
    The Oilers top 6 is staggeringly ahead of pace.
    And the lack of PP2 opportunity is very likely hurting the Oilers bottom 6 scoring relative to the league.
    I’m taking some good and some bad (even as it relates to the bottom 6) from this.

    Point made, however the bottom-6 has 3 points: 1 each from Jurco, Haas and Nygard (goal).

    Also, do defensemen. I have a hunch that ours are outperforming the median.

  140. jp says:

    Wilde:
    Just caught a funny Yamamoto moment while early-morning tracking the last Condors game I forgot about:

    https://streamable.com/l7nkr

    I mentioned this on twitter when I posted it there, but his quickness is so profoundly dominant at this level that I think the main use of his extended time dominating down there will be to have his brain properly work out how to best abuse the smaller amount of windows he’ll get to make plays in the NHL because they’re pretty close in type; just more few and far between

    That’s a sick nz move.

    You can count me among those who do think he’ll have a nice NHL career.

  141. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Point made, however the bottom-6 has 3 points: 1 each from Jurco, Haas and Nygard (goal).

    Also, do defensemen. I have a hunch that ours are outperforming the median.

    Yes, I know.

    It would have been infinitely harder to figure out each teams top 6 and how they scored (which of course is fluid through the year anyway) than to bin forwards by goals and points. I figured it was most fair to do the same for the Oilers. That made Nygard the F6 in goals (so zero from F7 onward) and Jurco the F6 in points (2 points from F7 on).

    I don’t have time to look at the D but I suspect you’re right. 4 goals and 20 points from the Oilers D isn’t so far off normal top 6 forward production.

  142. Dr. Taboggan says:

    JimmyV1965: If you truly want to get informed about climate change, visit Climate Etc hosted by Dr. Judith Curry.Lots of unbiased and well reasoned info. And while they’re all about the math at that site, they make it easy to understand for lay people.

    By unbiased you mean that it aligns with your views on climate change right?

    It is really not possible for a single source to be ‘unbiased’. If you really want to get informed about climate change read lots, from a variety of places.

  143. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Yes, I know.

    It would have been infinitely harder to figure out each teams top 6 and how they scored (which of course is fluid through the year anyway) than to bin forwards by goals and points. I figured it was most fair to do the same for the Oilers. That made Nygard the F6 in goals (so zero from F7 onward) and Jurco the F6 in points (2 points from F7 on).

    I don’t have time to look at the D but I suspect you’re right. 4 goals and 20 points from the Oilers D isn’t so far off normal top 6 forward production.

    If you’re going to cherry pick which players are in the top-6 for goals and have a different set of players for assists you’re not going to have accurate numbers.

  144. ArmchairGM says:

    Lots of talk about Taylor Hall and while I really like the player, looking at his numbers gave me a little shock. He has averaged 24 goals and just 61 points per season over his career. While in Jersey, his 25-, 26- and 27-year-old seasons (PEAK), his averages have been similarly pedestrian: 23 goals and 63 points per season. This, of course is largely due to injuries, which limited him to just 63 games per season in Jersey. But, that’s pretty close to his career average, so we can’t really expect anything better going forward.

    Is that really worth a Kings ransom in a trade? I mean, we’re probably talking about JP + Samorukov + a 2nd or so. And what about his next contract? He’ll be leaving his prime just about as soon as the contract starts, but even IF he was able to maintain his 61 points per season average, is that really worth $9-10M per season?

  145. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM,

    His value is in driving play, not point totals

  146. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: If you’re going to cherry pick which players are in the top-6 for goals and have a different set of players for assists you’re not going to have accurate numbers.

    There’s no cherry picking, this is completely unbiased (aside from deciding how to sort the players initially).

    If you want to go through every team, determine who you think was top 6/bottom 6, then figure out how many points each group scored. Well have at er.

    I sorted all NHL forwards last year by goals and by points. Then using bins of 31 for F1, F2 etc. I took the median goal and point number for each slot (=> the list above).

    Then I sorted the Oilers the same way to assign goals and assists to top 6/bottom 6. I think this is the most impartial way of doing this. It’s not perfect, but any other way of doing this will be equally flawed.

  147. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: Their shot impacts in their draft year in the Liiga

    Got it.

    Thanks.

  148. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde:
    ArmchairGM,

    His value is in driving play, not point totals

    He has zero value (negative value, actually) while on IR for 20 games per season.

  149. Dr. Taboggan says:

    If you can get Hall for JP + Samorukov + a 2nd you make that trade. Yesterday.

  150. jp says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    If you can get Hall for JP + Samorukov + a 2ndyou make that trade. Yesterday.

    +1000.

    That next contract though…

  151. frjohnk says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Lots of talk about Taylor Hall and while I really like the player, looking at his numbers gave me a little shock. He has averaged 24 goals and just 61 points per season over his career. While in Jersey, his 25-, 26- and 27-year-old seasons (PEAK), his averages have been similarly pedestrian: 23 goals and 63 points per season. This, of course is largely due to injuries, which limited him to just 63 games per season in Jersey. But, that’s pretty close to his career average, so we can’t really expect anything better going forward.

    Is that really worth a Kings ransom in a trade? I mean, we’re probably talking about JP + Samorukov + a 2nd or so. And what about his next contract? He’ll be leaving his prime just about as soon as the contract starts, but even IF he was able to maintain his 61 points per season average, is that really worth $9-10M per season?

    Its been shown that elite players stay in their prime years longer than other players.
    I have no doubt that a “healthy” Hall will drive play until he hits 34, 35.

    The questions Id have is can he stay healthy and how much will his contract cost?
    The first one is unknown and the second one, we will know in less than 10 months.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    drglen:
    Just wondering if there is any news on a D call up from the Bake?

    Any news on Haas drawing back in ?

    Lagesson was called up yesterday afternoon.

  153. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: There are many similarities between this year’s Oilers team after seven and the 2016-17 team that made the playoffs. Similarities, differences and the work that needs to be done:

    https://theathletic.com/1302559/2019/10/18/lowetide-assessing-oilers-forwards-early-season-progress/

  154. Glovjuice says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Lots of talk about Taylor Hall and while I really like the player, looking at his numbers gave me a little shock. He has averaged 24 goals and just 61 points per season over his career. While in Jersey, his 25-, 26- and 27-year-old seasons (PEAK), his averages have been similarly pedestrian: 23 goals and 63 points per season. This, of course is largely due to injuries, which limited him to just 63 games per season in Jersey. But, that’s pretty close to his career average, so we can’t really expect anything better going forward.

    Is that really worth a Kings ransom in a trade? I mean, we’re probably talking about JP + Samorukov + a 2nd or so. And what about his next contract? He’ll be leaving his prime just about as soon as the contract starts, but even IF he was able to maintain his 61 points per season average, is that really worth $9-10M per season?

    If you get Hall for double that you do it. It also secures Nuge at a discount I would think.

  155. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM: He has zero value (negative value, actually) while on IR for 20 games per season.

    Did I say that he magically impacts games he doesn’t play in?

  156. Pouzar says:

    Thx Elliotte.

  157. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde: Did I say that he magically impacts games he doesn’t play in?

    Yes. Yes, you did. Or at least I’m pretty sure it was implied… /s

    Point being, though, what good is “play driving” if it doesn’t lead to goals and wins? Hall is worth, on average, 61 points- that’s about what guys like Eric Staal, Mikael Granljnd and Josh Bailey average. Would you pay those guys north of $9M? And anyways, most of Hall’s current value is tied up in his PP acumen, at 5v5 over the past 3 years his 97 total points rank him 76th in the league, tied with such offensive stalwarts as Ryan Dzingel and William Nylander. That’s NOT elite play driving. And that’s only partially due to injuries: Hall has averaged just 2.13 P/60, which is outside the top 40 players in the league. Don’t count on it improving as he hits his 30’s either.

  158. Andy Dufresne says:

    Darth Tu: Essentially, ferme la Bouch?

    HAAAA haaaa! 🙂

  159. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM: Point being, though, what good is “play driving” if it doesn’t lead to goals and wins?

    It does lead to goals, that’s the thing. He pushes the percentage of goals scored while he’s on the ice in favour of his team.

  160. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Yes. Yes, you did. Or at least I’m pretty sure it was implied… /s

    Point being, though, what good is “play driving” if it doesn’t lead to goals and wins? Hall is worth, on average, 61 points- that’s about what guys like Eric Staal, Mikael Granljnd and Josh Bailey average. Would you pay those guys north of $9M? And anyways, most of Hall’s current value is tied up in his PP acumen, at 5v5 over the past 3 years his 97 total points rank him 76th in the league, tied with such offensive stalwarts as Ryan Dzingel and William Nylander. That’s NOT elite play driving. And that’s only partially due to injuries: Hall has averaged just 2.13 P/60, which is outside the top 40 players in the league. Don’t count on it improving as he hits his 30’s either.

    The missed games and the next contract are real issues, no question.

    But Hall does drive play. You know this.

    His GF% by season:
    2010-11 45.7
    2011-12 52.6
    2012-13 53.9
    2013-14 47.8
    2014-15 51.4
    2015-16 52.3
    2016-17 52.1
    2017-18 58.6
    2018-19 53.9
    2019-20 42.9

    Rather impressive since he’s played on middling to bad teams. Considering that, GF%rel is likely a better measure.

    His GF%rel by season:
    2010-11 1.70
    2011-12 9.71
    2012-13 10.55
    2013-14 8.76
    2014-15 15.13
    2015-16 12.87
    2016-17 10.72
    2017-18 13.71
    2018-19 13.19
    2019-20 -2.60

    None of the other players you mentioned have driven goal scoring by their teams like that. My goodness.

  161. drglen says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lagesson was called up yesterday afternoon.

    thanks! fair.

  162. Andy Dufresne says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Here is ES GF/GA for last season for select centers:

    Tavares 83/56
    Crosby 82/43
    Point 72/35
    Seguin 60/36
    Aho 63/38
    O’Reilly 61/37
    MacKinnon 67/46

    Barkov 70/64
    Giroux 68/60
    Monahan 65/58
    McDavid 77/75
    Scheifele 59/56
    Eichel 62/63
    Matthews 55/58
    Couture 59/64

    The guys in the top group are putting up elite out-scoring results and Crosby is obviously a beast. MacKinnon is doing really well for a young guy. McDavid is mid-pack in the second group (best GF / worst GA). I want McDavid to be in the top group and I expect so does Tip. He’s got to get a lot better defensively to be an elite 2 way guy, and MacKinnon is probably the better all-round young center right now. I would not bet against him getting there, but he’s got some work to do.

    Wow. That is an eye opener for me. Thank You.

  163. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pescador: I’m with you, those are the worst kinds of clowns

    Thats IT

  164. Andy Dufresne says:

    jp: As others have said, you need to look over more than 1 year.

    And 5 on 5 goal differential is what you’re showing, so to simplify I’ll show goal differential for a few of the players you list (from last year):
    Tavares +27
    Crosby +39
    Point +27
    MacKinnon +21
    ————————
    Monahan +8
    McDavid +2
    Scheifele +3

    What about that same group in 16-17:
    Tavares +7
    Crosby +18
    Point +6
    MacKinnon -9
    ————————
    Monahan +4
    McDavid +30
    Scheifele +13

    Again for 17-18:
    Tavares -3
    Crosby -7
    Point +19
    MacKinnon +17
    ————————
    Monahan +13
    McDavid +20
    Scheifele +13

    For fun, early returns on 19-20:
    Tavares -5
    Crosby +2
    Point +3
    MacKinnon even
    ————————
    Monahan +1
    McDavid +5
    Scheifele even

    Well shit, McDavid has the best goal differential in all 3 of the years you didn’t list. Huh. (by the way I really did just pick the first 3 names from the top group, the 2 names around McDavid in the bottom group, plus MacKinnon since you think he’s better than McDavid)

    Anyway, I agree that McDavid could, and will improve his defensive game. But you’re terribly exaggerating the issue and cherry picking numbers that aren’t representative. The grass is always greener, let’s enjoy what we have.

    Excellent counter point. Thank You

  165. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde: I’d say ‘truly informed’ would be also reading those who disagree with Curry.

    There are lots of mainstream positions in the comments sections and she will link to mainstream articles.

  166. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: The missed games and the next contract are real issues, no question.

    But Hall does drive play. You know this.

    His GF% by season:
    2010-11 45.7
    2011-12 52.6
    2012-13 53.9
    2013-14 47.8
    2014-15 51.4
    2015-16 52.3
    2016-17 52.1
    2017-18 58.6
    2018-19 53.9
    2019-20 42.9

    Rather impressive since he’s played on middling to bad teams. Considering that, GF%rel is likely a better measure.

    His GF%rel by season:
    2010-11 1.70
    2011-12 9.71
    2012-13 10.55
    2013-14 8.76
    2014-15 15.13
    2015-16 12.87
    2016-17 10.72
    2017-18 13.71
    2018-19 13.19
    2019-20 -2.60

    None of the other players you mentioned have driven goal scoring by their teams like that. My goodness.

    Of course rels look good for a good player on a bad team, they always do. Put him on Tampa and the rels would shrink drastically.

    Are you sure that those other players don’t drive play like Hall? If GF% is the definition of play driving, why not look it up to see? Looking at the past 3 years due to NST’s limitations – Hall’s best 3 year run I might add – the numbers look like this:

    Nylander: 56.52
    Granlund: 55.98
    Hall: 55.51
    Staal: 54.64
    Bailey: 50.81
    Dzingel: 48.05

    We should have signed Brett Connolly, his 58.57 GF% from the 3rd line is elite.

  167. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Of course rels look good for a good player on a bad team, they always do. Put him on Tampa and the rels would shrink drastically.

    Are you sure that those other players don’t drive play like Hall? If GF% is the definition of play driving, why not look it up to see? Looking at the past 3 years due to NST’s limitations – Hall’s best 3 year run I might add – the numbers look like this:

    Nylander: 56.52
    Granlund: 55.98
    Hall: 55.51
    Staal: 54.64
    Bailey: 50.81
    Dzingel: 48.05

    We should have signed Brett Connolly, his 58.57 GF% from the 3rd line is elite.

    Relative numbers don’t always look good for players on bad teams. The Oilers have had tons of examples of that.

    I didn’t say that GF% is the definition of play driving, and you know that GF% is dependent on team as much as the individual. Fair enough bad teams can inflate the relative numbers but it’s damned hard to have a positive GF% on a shitty team.

    And I did look up the numbers.

    IMO GF%rel captures more than raw GF%. So for the last 3 years GF%rel:
    Nylander: 5.04
    Granlund: 4.37
    Hall: 12.75 (4th in the NHL)
    Staal: 2.21
    Bailey: -1.01
    Dzingel: 3.14
    Connolly: 3.18

    All fine players, but it’s almost like you’re arguing that these guys are as good as Hall.

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    DrTaboggan:
    If you can get Hall for JP + Samorukov + a 2ndyou make that trade. Yesterday.

    For less than one full season until UFA?

    Taylor Hall would be acquired as a rental.

    I don’t want to over-rate Samorukov but I’m weary of a big name rental at this point.

    Not to mention, that trade does not work – Hall replaces a player in the lineup so the net cap increase is $5M – can’t even fit that in with full Larsson LTIR relief let alone with that $4M of extra space goes away in a month.

  169. Hockey Project says:

    Man, Kris Russell will never make a big portion of his salary from passing the puck. lol

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