2019-20 Game Eight: Red Wings at Oilers

In all the excitement over Ethan Bear’s early showing, it’s easy to forget the buzz surrounding William Lagesson as we entered 2019 training camp. He can defend, move the puck, and his cap hit is about 25 percent of Kris Russell’s cap number. Makes you think.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Lowetide: There are many similarities between this year’s Oilers team after seven and the 2016-17 team that made the playoffs. Similarities, differences and the work that needs to be done.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: That was pretty sick’: What teammates and opponents are saying about Connor McDavid’s latest goal
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I’m gonna bring a bigger bag with me’: Oilers rookies learn about life on the road in the NHL
  • Jonathan Willis: A deep dive on the Oilers’ bottom six, which needs to produce more offence
  • Lowetide: Ethan Bear’s early success with the Oilers and what it might mean at the trade deadline
  • Jonathan Willis: How well are the solutions to key Oilers weaknesses working?
  • Dom Luszczyszyn: Is the Oilers’ hot start for real?
  • Lowetide: How will the Oilers compensate when James Neal’s scoring cools off?
  • Lowetide: Raphael Lavoie delivers high-octane offence to lead Oilers prospect performances.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Mike Smith is charged up, and that’s a big reason behind the Oilers’ surprising 5-0 start
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 positives in the Oilers’ 4 wins that may not be sustainable
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ Oscar Klefbom playing tough minutes with inexperienced partners — and looking good doing it
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He’s addicted to getting better’: What the Oilers are saying about Connor McDavid’s amazing start
  • Eric Duhatschek: The lasting impact of The Gretzky Effect, 40 years after his NHL debut
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers who could win (or lose) NHL jobs early in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Several unproven players are earning NHL jobs and increasing roster quality and depth. No balance photo, but some traction early.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why Riley Sheahan could be a key ingredient the Oilers have been missing
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
  • Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 20153-5-0, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-1-0, goal differential +12
  • Oilers in October 2017: 2-5-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in October 2018: 3-3-1, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2019: 6-1-0, goal differential +9

The goal differential is strong, you just don’t want to see how the sausage is made. This is a transition season and we’re going to see some growing pains. The game against Philadelphia was as loose as Neil Young & Crazy Horse at the Fillmore. More than a victory, I’ll be watching for a tighter game from Edmonton.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

  • At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (3-1-0)
  • At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
  • At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 6-1-0, 12 points after 7 games

The Red Wings played in Calgary last night, didn’t look strong against the now surging Flames. For Edmonton, a strong effort is vital and you hope for a good result. I don’t think the Oilers have experienced any real bad luck yet this season, beyond injury. If the Oilers win tonight, the team could go 0-5-1 and still match my projection.

LAGESSON RECALLED

The lesson of Ethan Bear is that we don’t really know about these kids until they get here. Lagesson’s scouting report suggests he has some shutdown ability, and he did lead Condors blue with 24 even-strength points a year ago. I hope we see him for 25 games in Edmonton this season, it’s important to get a good long look at him.

PULJUJARVI TRADE CHATTER

Carolina apparently kicking tires on Jesse Puljujarvi (Edmonton) and Josh Ho-Sang (NY Islanders) recently, via TSN’s Pierre Lebrun. Julien Gauthier is still a Hurricane, perhaps Carolina is making something more attractive available. I like Warren Foegele, but you’re not trading him for Puljujarvi’s potential future. Holland may feel a year in Europe will give the young man time to assess his situation. JP has no contract, so this is not a holdout. However, Edmonton does hold the hammer in terms of his NHL future. I hope this gets resolved.

2019-20 OILERS

If Lagesson draws in tonight (for his first NHL game), that will mean the Oilers have deployed 26 players through eight games this year. As you may know, I believe the Oilers could break the franchise record for number of players deployed in a single regular season. Lagesson would be defenseman No. 9 on the campaign.

TONIGHT’S GAME

I suspect there is a reckoning on the way, this Oilers team isn’t winning the Corsi or shot differential game (and that includes the McDavid line, read my article for The Athletic this morning). McDavid can outscore the Corgis, Leon’s going to fill the net and you should be increasingly confident in the Nuge line. Still, the math is hammering like a bad headache:

  • Corsi for five-on-five: 45.28
  • Shots for five-on-five: 43.89
  • Goals for five-on-five: 53.33
  • Expected goals five-on-five: 43.74
  • Shooting percentage five-on-five: 12.03
  • Save percentage five-on-five: 91.76
  • PDO five-on-five: 103.8

All numbers NST. The only game Edmonton has owned more than 50 percent of the shot share came against the Rangers. The Oilers were outshot five-on-five 33-16 in the Philadelphia game. Larsson is hurt, Persson is hurt again, Kris Russell has moved to the second pair right side and the possession numbers have been screaming since opening night. This is Dave Tippett’s challenge.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we get ready for the weekend and the big game against the Red Wings. Steve Lansky joins us from BigMouth Sports to talk MLB, Oilers start and CFL Live Mic. Matt Iwanyk pops by around 11 to chat about the Oilers start and a fantastic final few weeks in the CFL. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter and we’ll see you on the radio!

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439 Responses to "2019-20 Game Eight: Red Wings at Oilers"

« Older Comments
  1. Zelepukin says:

    striatic:
    I think the Oilers are playing like a playoff team. A squeaker playoff team, but a playoff team nonetheless.

    They are definitely buying into the mentality of being relentless on the puck and minimising throw-away pucks defensively.

    A big part of playoff teams is also consistency with lines. I can see Tippett keeping the top 2 lines together for the whole year. Neal is not going to leave Nuge’s side and Kass perfectly plays his part on the top line. They don’t need him to dangle guys.

    The JJ line looked good tonight. Those guys just need to stay patient with the puck and cycle until they force a penalty. I’d be happy with them only doing that.

  2. Side says:

    Munny:
    Side,

    They were hanging on by broken shoelaces and pocket lint in the 3rd, but other than that they were full value.

    That’s our Oilers!

    WOOOOOOO

  3. Munny says:

    Does Patrick Russell ever do anything wrong on the ice?

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    jm:
    Another come from ahead win.

    I don’t think that’s true…..

  5. tileguy says:

    LT wrote; The goal differential is strong, you just don’t want to see how the sausage is made.
    You know, it’s getting easier andceasier to watch.

  6. yeraslob says:

    Did I see Chaisson backchecking on Larkin and gaining on him in a hurry…?

  7. striatic says:

    Zelepukin,

    They don’t have the depth to handle the true Forces of the Western Conference but if they keep playing the way they are playing now they should be able to consistently win against the bottom half of the league. That’ll earn a playoff spot.

    Luck aside, this team certainly is good enough to have gone 5-2-1 or at the very least 4-2-2 against the competition they‘ve faced so far.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    npanciroli:
    Stop playing Russell as the 2RD or for God’s sake play Benning there or call up Bouchard for a couple games while Persson heals.

    My goodness not to Bouchard – The future of this franchise requires the management to allow him the required development time in the AHL – not to be called up to play 2RD.

    In my opinion.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    oilersfan:
    Any guessed as to Bear’s next contract?

    Getting a bit worrisome

    Nah – 2 X $2M ($1.8M and $2.2M).

  10. Dennis L says:

    Did anyone else’s head tilt when hearing Louie Debrusk talk about Ethan Bear’s summer training regimen, and say “all part of becoming a good pro is learning how to train the right way in the summertime. It’s something you have to figure out on your own”?

    Shouldn’t summer (and year-long), individualized training plans be something the team analyzes and provides, or at least advises on?

    I hope Louie is just commenting on how it was when he played, or talking as a “hockey man”, and that he’s simply unaware (perhaps because the team or players don’t talk about it) of what the club now provides its players.

    If not, and he revealed the lack of provision of such to players, that’s damned concerning, no?

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: First of all I said consideration and not necessarily winning the trophy
    Secondly Barkov wasn’t even a finalist last year (not that he shouldn’t have been)

    I’m just making conversation, that’s all.

    Barkov is known as one of the elite 2-way players in the NHL up there with Bergeron and, given the way he’s playing, I’m wondering if Drai is making it in to that conversation.

  12. Munny says:

    No shorthanded minutes for Drai tonight.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side:
    Unfortunately I had to miss the game but I see the result. Can someone fill me in on today’s reason why the Oilers did not deserve to win and whether this is still unsustainable?

    Easy schedule – games have been gimmes – should be 8-0 really.

  14. Reja says:

    On to Winnipeg and Minnesota both are ripe for the picking. How soon before Dallas and Minnesota start firing people or start making trades. Come on Holland feed of the Lucic trade and let’s fleece a goal deprived team with Jesse plus.

  15. v4ance says:

    12 more Neal goals and we give up the 3rd rounder! Whoo!

    Great effort by both Sheahan and Jurco on their seperate lines but understandable since they both wanted to do well against their former team.

  16. Derek says:

    Dennis L:
    Did anyone else’s head tilt when hearing Louie Debrusk talk about Ethan Bear’s summer training regimen, and say “all part of becoming a good pro is learning how to train the right way in the summertime. It’s something you have to figure out on your own”?

    Shouldn’t summer (and year-long), individualized training plans be something the team analyzes and provides, or at least advises on?

    I hope Louie is just commenting on how it was when he played, or talking as a “hockey man”, and that he’s simply unaware (perhaps because the team or players don’t talk about it) of what the club now provides its players.

    If not, and he revealed the lack of provision of such to players, that’s damned concerning, no?

    Whenever I hear or read something like that I always assume they’re not referring to the actual training program that each athlete is on, but the combination of training hard every day with intensity, minding your diet, and not taking days off. I think a lot of would be young pros underestimate the amount of commitment it takes to succeed at the highest level, during the season and especially in the offseason.

    That’s just my 0.02.

  17. Ice Sage says:

    Dennis L:
    Did anyone else’s head tilt when hearing Louie Debrusk talk about Ethan Bear’s summer training regimen, and say “all part of becoming a good pro is learning how to train the right way in the summertime. It’s something you have to figure out on your own”?

    Shouldn’t summer (and year-long), individualized training plans be something the team analyzes and provides, or at least advises on?

    I hope Louie is just commenting on how it was when he played, or talking as a “hockey man”, and that he’s simply unaware (perhaps because the team or players don’t talk about it) of what the club now provides its players.

    If not, and he revealed the lack of provision of such to players, that’s damned concerning, no?

    Dude, do you remember being 20? Add in some injuries, maybe a concussion or 3… it takes a bit for some prospects to get it together… as our gracious host reminds us.
    Great Bear!

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    Derek: Whenever I hear or read something like that I always assume they’re not referring to the actual training program that each athlete is on, but the combination of training hard every day with intensity, minding your diet, and not taking days off.I think a lot of would be young pros underestimate the amount of commitment it takes to succeed at the highest level, during the season and especially in the offseason.

    That’s just my 0.02.

    This is pretty much exactly it and confirmed by Bear himself – Gregor has a good article on Bear and this yesterday I believe.

  19. Dr. Taboggan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid played under 19 minutes tonight and Drai just over 16 – beautiful.

    Better check again. McDavid with 23, Draisaitl 20.

    Still an improvement.

  20. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar: Easy schedule – games have been gimmes – should be 8-0 really.

    Ahh the Harper’s Hair combo.

  21. v4ance says:

    It’s funny that Bear got first star when a couple of posters in here were critical of his play tonight. Maybe Bernier deserved a star over him but Bear scored a key goal that led to a close fought victory.

    I thought Khaira had a really good game handling the puck tonight. Made good decisions and excellent short passes to his mates.

    Honestly, when the Oilers see an open net, they should just dump it into the corner and just cycle it. It was comical how many times we missed that cage tonight.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    DrTaboggan: Better check again. McDavid with 23, Draisaitl 20.

    Still an improvement.

    Ooops, that was 5 on 5.

  23. Ice Sage says:

    A moment on time
    https://www.nhl.com/standings/2019/league
    Oilers unequivocally the best.
    I’m out

  24. Munny says:

    GMB3: Munny, what is it you see that makes you think Lazar and Marody are applying for the same role? Curious what those similarities are?

    They are both are trying to win a Bottom 6 RHS Center spot. This is obvious, no?

    Both have the heart and the smarts to get there.

    But both are too slow for The Show to stick.

    Maybe Marody can pull off a Summer of Ethan to change things, but that’s on him to do so.

  25. Pescador says:

    Munny,

    Er how bout that Dinger review?

  26. Munny says:

    Pescador:
    Munny,

    Er how bout that Dinger review?

    I’m actually drinking it right now. Much better than I expected. Probably the best wheatie I’ve ever had. Tastes so old school European (which I like). Thank you for the tip!

  27. Pescador says:

    Dennis L:
    Did anyone else’s head tilt when hearing Louie Debrusk talk about Ethan Bear’s summer training regimen, and say “all part of becoming a good pro is learning how to train the right way in the summertime. It’s something you have to figure out on your own”?

    Shouldn’t summer (and year-long), individualized training plans be something the team analyzes and provides, or at least advises on?

    I hope Louie is just commenting on how it was when he played, or talking as a “hockey man”, and that he’s simply unaware (perhaps because the team or players don’t talk about it) of what the club now provides its players.

    If not, and he revealed the lack of provision of such to players, that’s damned concerning, no?

    Definitely not,
    To me “figure it out” means find the motivation within yourself to commit to the rigorous training required each & every off season.
    There training regimens & trainers are at their (NHL’ers) fingertips, it’s the commitment part that they need to “figure out for themselves”

  28. Pescador says:

    Munny: I’m actually drinking it right now.Much better than I expected.Probably the best wheatie I’ve ever had.Tastes so old school European(which I like).Thank you for the tip!

    Agreed
    It’s a delicious beer, there is no other way to say it.
    Maisel’s Wiess is a decent offering for a wheat.
    The 1260 morning show was sampling a hazy pale called Unity Brew.
    It was/is fantastic

  29. Pescador says:

    Ice Sage:
    A moment on time
    https://www.nhl.com/standings/2019/league
    Oilers unequivocally the best.
    I’m out

    Shades of 2016

  30. GMB3 says:

    Donskoi is crushing it in Colorado

  31. Side says:

    How is Dallas so bad. Wow.

  32. jp says:

    Munny: They are both are trying to win a Bottom 6 RHS Center spot.This is obvious, no?

    Both have the heart and the smarts to get there.

    But both are too slow for The Show to stick.

    Maybe Marody can pull off a Summer of Ethan to change things, but that’s on him to do so.

    I thought you were going to tell us Lazar also has a music career.

  33. Professor Q says:

    Side:
    How is Dallas so bad. Wow.

    Eakins or Stars?

  34. GMB3 says:

    Munny: They are both are trying to win a Bottom 6 RHS Center spot.This is obvious, no?

    Both have the heart and the smarts to get there.

    But both are too slow for The Show to stick.

    Maybe Marody can pull off a Summer of Ethan to change things, but that’s on him to do so.

    Is that obvious? Marody has been a far better scorer throughout his career than Lazar. The difference in offensive acumen is significant, imo.

    In my opinion, Marody’s slow boots greatly reduce the likelihood of him being a top 6C, but his numbers suggest he at least has a chance of being a top 6 scorer (most likely on the wing, considering everything). Lazar hasn’t shown the same kind of offensive acumen.

    I don’t really see any concrete evidence that Marody and Lazar have the same ‘smarts’

  35. Bulging Twine says:

    I like the front of the new jersey, i think it is the crest colour, and I don’t really like the back. The back seems a little too Halloweeny or something.

    Bear has great small area mobility with the puck, both in his own zone against pressure and at the opposition blue line.

    When is the last time we’ve seen Klefbom fall or get knocked to the ice? He has great stability and balance.

    Koskinen swallowing pucks into his body like the good ones do when they are ON, not giving out rebounds from there.

    Detroit were a desperate team as the game went on.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    The only thing that Lazar has on Marody is draft pedigree.

    Marody had a better season last year than Lazar in the AHL and was a year younger and it was his first year pro as oppossed to Lazar’s 5th year pro.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    BulgingTwine:

    Bear has great small area mobility with the puck, both in his own zone against pressure and at the opposition blue line.

    When is the last time we’ve seen Klefbom fall or get knocked to the ice?He has great stability and balance.

    Koskinen swallowing pucks into his body like the good ones do when they are ON, not giving out rebounds from there.

    Detroit were a desperate team as the game went on.

    You nailed it on Bear – he seems to have the abilit to make a small move or a delay to get out of trouble in the defensive zone and make a play – its a skill and its wonderful to watch.

    Koskinen’s rebound control last night was excellent – its what gave me confidence in his game – just swallowing up pucks!

  38. Munny says:

    GMB3: Is that obvious? Marody has been a far better scorer throughout his career than Lazar.

    In three of the years Lazar has been pro, he has had to score against NHL opposition and NHL goaltending. The fact he has those three years and Marody doesn’t have one year tells argues that Lazar has been ahead of MArody through his development.

    But despite that Lazar can’t stick. His skating isn’t good enough. This is Marody’s weakness too, and thus Lazar is a cautionary tale.

  39. Pouzar says:

    PokeCheck:
    Did I just see Patrik Stefan out there?

    Lifetime Ban.

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