Back to the Future

This blog spends a lot of time on prospects and the future. So much time in fact that I was once accused of contributing to Edmonton’s poor record by romanticizing the draft. Seriously. I started the top 20 prospects for winter 2019 at The Athletic yesterday and this is a good time to run the NHLE’s and have a chat about the future.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Evaluating the Oilers’ readiness for the 2021 Seattle expansion draft
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ college procurement could increase under Ken Holland
  • Jonathan Willis: A shift-by-shift analysis of Caleb Jones in his Oilers season debut
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Sometimes it’s just unstoppable’: How McDavid and the Oilers’ power play dominated the Avalanche
  • Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones and the crisis that’s looming in the Oilers’ middle distance
  • Jonathan Willis: Basically, yes, the Oilers should keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ‘forever’
  • Lowetide: Why the recall of NHL-ready Caleb Jones should benefit the Oilers in the long run
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Several drivers make the grade but Edmonton’s bus still has a few passengers
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanFrom 4 to 97, Oilers both new and old share the stories behind their jersey numbers
  • Jonathan Willis: Could a fall trade improve the fortunes of your NHL team in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: Analyzing Dave Tippett’s defensive usage and what the Oilers will do when Adam Larsson returns
  • Lowetide: What’s going on with the Bakersfield Condors?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shines, mad props for Leon Draisaitl and more to like as the Oilers beat the Devils
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What inexperienced defencemen like the Oilers’ Joel Persson must do to gain their coach’s confidence
  • Lowetide: Oilers are closer to having an effective second line than a year ago, but few have noticed
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The beauty of a good night’s sleep can be elusive for many NHL players

COMPLETE PROSPECT NHLE

I included Jesse Puljujarvi in this look although he doesn’t fit my definition of a prospect (your mileage may vary). There are three (Lavoie, Benson, Jones) who have an NHLE over 30 and that’s the start of a very impressive season. Men 25-29 NHLE include Aapeli Rasanen, Josh Currie and Joe Gambardella. Players 20-24 points NHLE are Evan Bouchard and Kailer Yamamoto. Excluding goalies, how many top end prospects are <20 NHLE? I’ll suggest three defenders (William Lagesson, Dmitri Samorukov and Philip Broberg), plus forwards Cooper Marody, Ryan McLeod and Kirill Maksimov.

I checked on Friday and there were still tickets left, they are free for The Athletic subscribers (and you can bring someone). It’s a great venue and our chance to say thanks. Last year’s was a blast and the Q&A was a lot of fun, led to some great suggestions by subscribers (many of those were added to what we present today). Ask anything you like, I’ll even describe the balance photo if you ask. Click on the link above and register, love to see you on Saturday!

AHL EVEN STRENGTH SCORING

  1. Brad Malone 14, 2-6-8 .571
  2. Joe Gambardella 9, 3-2-5 .556
  3. Tyler Benson 15, 2-6-8 .533
  4. Josh Currie 15, 5-2-7 .467
  5. Kailer Yamamoto 15, 3-3-6 .400
  6. Colby Cave 10, 2-2-4 .400
  7. Cooper Marody 12, 1-3-4 .333
  8. Caleb Jones 13, 1-3-4 .308
  9. Ryan McLeod 15, 1-3-4 .267
  10. Evan Bouchard 15, 1-3-4 .267

Here are the top 10 even-strength scorers this year (by points-per-game). Here’s what that looked like one year ago around the same time

  1. Cooper Marody 7, 2-4-6 .860
  2. Brad Malone 11, 3-5-8 .730
  3. Patrick Russell 11, 3-5-8 .730
  4. Tyler Benson 11, 2-5-7 .640
  5. Joe Gambardella 11, 4-3-7 .640
  6. Caleb Jones 11, 1-5-6 .550
  7. Cameron Hebig 11, 1-4-5 .450
  8. Dave Gust 9, 1-3-4 .440
  9. William Lagesson 10, 2-2-4 .400
  10. Josh Currie 11, 3-1-4 .360

A couple of things. First, Cooper Marody being hurt impacts the offense in Bakersfield. Second, none of the prospects outside of Marody are way off the pace. Finally, Kailer Yamamoto isn’t tearing the cover off the ball but he’s in the pack and hasn’t gone on a heater (the kids use that word for hot streak now) yet.

ROOKIES BY YEAR

One thing I like to follow each year is the number of games a team deploys former minor leaguers in the season following their time in the AHL. It looks like 2019 is going to be a good one.

  1. 2015 (320) Darnell Nurse 69, Iiro Pakarinen 63, Brandon Davidson 51, Connor McDavid 45, Griffin Reinhart 29, Adam Clendening 20, Jordan Oesterle 17, Jujhar Khaira 15, Anton Slepyshev 11.
  2. 2016 (212) Matt Benning 62, Drake Caggiula 60, Anton Slepyshev 41, Jesse Puljujarvi 28, Jujhar Khaira 10, Laurent Brossoit 8, Dillon Simpson 3.
  3. 2017 (61) Ethan Bear 18, Pontus Aberg 16, Laurent Brossoit 14, Kailer Yamamoto 9, Nathan Walker 2, Keegan Lowe 2.
  4. 2018 (137) Colby Cave 33, Josh Currie 21, Kailer Yamamoto 17, Caleb Jones 17, Joe Gambardella 15, Evan Bouchard 7, Patrick Russell 6, Cooper Marody 6, Valentin Zykov 5.
  5. 2019 (53) Ethan Bear 22, Patrick Russell 19, Joel Persson 10, Caleb Jones 2.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Monday morning with all kinds of major stories to cover. We’ll have Darren Bauming from TSN Winnipeg at 10:20 to talk Blue Bombers and the Grey Cup. Jason Gregor will be by at 11 to chat about the Eskimos season and what the offseason might look like, as well as the Oilers road trip ahead. 10-1260 text, see you on the radio!

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254 Responses to "Back to the Future"

« Older Comments
  1. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Yes, Loui Eriksson is absolutely germaine to a discussion about he the Leafs and the Oilers.

    Bwahahahahahahaha
    Lolz

  2. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Makar is in a class of his own.

    As long as Heiskanen is in that same class, I’m okay with that statement.

  3. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I do believe the Oilers will be battling the Yotes for the division – like the Oilers, I agree with HH that, that Yotes are for real.

    To me this season a western conference’s team of winning the cup are not great. Very hard to repeat, The Blues are a nice story but lack pop especially if T is out.

  4. Munny says:

    DSF Yes, Loui Eriksson is absolutely germaine to a discussion about he the Leafs and the Oilers.

    leadfarmer: Bwahahahahahahaha
    Lolz

    And then 10,000 tons of irony fell on Wile E.’s head.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: GF%
    Makar – 62.86%
    Bear – 43.48%

    It would seem there is a disparity in talent level.

    Matt Benning’s GF% has dropped from 76% to 70% recently.

    There may be a QoC factor in play in GF% (and I do know that Bear has about 60 min more versus elites so far this year).

    With that said, I hope noone is arguing that Bear’s offensive game is anywhere near Makars….

  6. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: And I’ll just leave this here:
    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=D&loc=B&toi=150&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&rookie=y&draftteam=ALL

    You chose the one with Quinn Hughes at the top? SMH.

    Though DSF is being particularly unreasonable on the Bear/Makar thing tonight. He’ll most often admit when he makes a blatant error.

  7. Side says:

    jp:

    Though DSF is being particularly unreasonable on the Bear/Makar thing tonight. He’ll most often admit when he makes a blatant error.

    I have never seen this phenomenom you describe.

  8. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Yes, Loui Eriksson is absolutely germaine to a discussion about he the Leafs and the Oilers.

    leadfarmer: Bwahahahahahahaha
    Lolz

    I thought this was especially rich too. 🙂

    I expect we’ll see germane thrown around a time or two going forward.

  9. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Zack Kassian is 5th in the NHL in 5 on 5 points……

    You forgot to put the asterisk on that.

  10. jp says:

    godot10: You forgot to put the asterisk on that.

    2 of them actually.

    But come on, that’s a very nice 3rd wheel. Most don’t spin that nice.

  11. nelson88 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Has anyone ever been to a draft?

    What year does anyone think there will be a draft in Edmonton?

    Yes. Miami when the oilers drafted McDavid and traded Barzal. Good fun. Interactive games set up outside and anyone who is anyone in hockey is there so easy to run in to and chat with plenty of interesting people.

    I’d recommend it if you get the chance

  12. jp says:

    Side: I have never seen this phenomenom you describe.

    I saw it at least once. It’s possible I’m being too kind.

  13. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: This was discussed in length and in detail this past off-season and, although I was never 100% convinced, as the research was not without ambiguity, the general consensus is AHL eligible.

    I believe the organization has expressly spoke to AHL potential for next season (not that that is official confirmation but I trust Holland and his team to know this stuff).

    Huh. Some vague memories are resurfacing now that you mention it.

    Doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense that the normal rules would apply this year but not next. In any case, no need to open the discussion again.

  14. Harpers Hair says:

    jp:
    I thought this was especially rich too.

    I expect we’ll see germane thrown around a time or two going forward.

    I will endeavour to discuss Loui Erikksson in every post going forward since it appears to be a popular request.

  15. Ryan says:

    nelson88: Yes. Miami when the oilers drafted McDavid and traded Barzal. Good fun. Interactive games set up outside and anyone who is anyone in hockey is there so easy to run in to and chat with plenty of interesting people.

    I’d recommend it if you get the chance

    “Welcome everyone to the city of Florida.”

    That was the first clue that portended what was going to unfold at that draft.

  16. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: I will endeavour to discuss Loui Erikksson in every post going forward since it appears to be a popular request.

    That’s not necessary.

    But come on, why are we talking about Cale Makar exactly?

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: That’s not necessary.

    But come on, why are we talking about Cale Makar exactly?

    because Armchair brought him up in relation to Ethan Bear and posted a bunch of metric that Bear is currently leading in.

  18. Harpers Hair says:

    Arizona wins 3-0.

    Their second straight shutout and now winners of 4 of 5.

    They have the lowest GA/GP in the NHL.

    Best goal differential in the WC at + 15

    1 point behind the Oilers.

    Loui Eriksson had no impact on this game.

  19. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: because Armchair brought him up in relation to Ethan Bear and posted a bunch of metric that Bear is currently leading in.

    Except the metrics that actually matter.

    Just ask Loui Eriksson.

  20. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: because Armchair brought him up in relation to Ethan Bear and posted a bunch of metric that Bear is currently leading in.

    Not this comment by HH in the Avalanche GDT?:

    “The Avalanche outscore the opposition 17-5 when Cale Makar is on the ice.
    They should just award him the Calder trophy right now.”

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    So, behind the Oilers in points and behind the Oilers in points percentage. Got it!

  22. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Arizona wins 3-0.

    Their second straight shutout and now winners of 4 of 5.

    They have the lowest GA/GP in the NHL.

    Best goal differential in the WC at + 15

    1 point behind the Oilers.

    Loui Eriksson had no impact on this game.

    What team are you dating next? Have you got a new dance partner picked out yet? Y’know just in case, fallback, this one leaves you jilted?

  23. godot10 says:

    The #Dementor and #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach losing on the same night. Somewhere a godot is having a celebratory beverage.

  24. Munny says:

    godot10:
    The #Dementor and #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach losing on the same night. Somewhere a godot is having a celebratory beverage.

    A wee #Tipp-le?

  25. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So, behind the Oilers in points and behind the Oilers in points percentage.Got it!

    1 point.

    .659 to .636

    Arizona 4 of next 6 at home.

    Oilers 6 of next 7 on the road.

    Loui Eriksson would bet the Coyotes will be ahead in two weeks.

  26. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Not this comment by HH in the Avalanche GDT?:

    “The Avalanche outscore the opposition 17-5 when Cale Makar is on the ice.
    They should just award him the Calder trophy right now.”

    Seems like something even Loui Eriksson would agree with.

  27. duct tape and foil says:

    Harpers Hair: Why not throw in Chiasson too to make it really attractive for the Leafs.
    You can never have too many fourth line plugs.

    Chiasson was tied for 23rd in goal scoring for RW last year. Fourth line plug is a BS description of the player. You can be your irritating self all day for all I care, never read your stuff, but there are zero reasons to insult people boomer.

  28. jm363561 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So, behind the Oilers in points and behind the Oilers in points percentage.Got it!

    Sigh……

  29. jm363561 says:

    Harpers Hair: Why not throw in Chiasson too to make it really attractive for the Leafs.
    You can never have too many fourth line plugs.

    Sigh……….

  30. Reja says:

    Why did the Flames dump Hathaway over a a few bucks wish the Oilers had him he plays with a lot of Moxie. That’s the one player we’re missing a little feisty prick to get under the skin of the opposition. Calgary didn’t have a good off-season.

  31. jm363561 says:


    SwedishPoster,

    Thank you for so many excellent posts. (I was so busy trying to ignore HH and OP’s love fest I almost missed them).

  32. defmn says:

    SwedishPoster:
    I think Broberg could end up anywhere from an NHL spot to the AHL or staying with Skellefteå. He’s young so things could move really fast but if I were to guess I think he stays in the SHL for one more year. Competition for spots with theOil is tough, he doesn’t really need a new challenge like Berglund does and the SHL is a better league than the AHL.

    He made a comment about staying if he didn’t crack the lineup but I read it more like he’d be fine with staying another year, not that the AHL isn’t an option, he did say he’s in no rush. I think it depends on where he’s at next year and what he feels most benefit his development.

    The clarification is much appreciated SP. Thanks again.

  33. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Seems like something even Loui Eriksson would agree with.

    I’m surprised Loui Eriksson wouldn’t support his teammate Hughes, leading the Canucks PP and all.

  34. Munny says:

    If the Oilers had managed to trade Russell as WG’s source says they attempted, then was there a plan to start the season with one of Lagesson or Jones on the roster conceived prior to training camp?

  35. Pescador says:

    Harpers Hair: I will endeavour to discuss Loui Erikksson in every post going forward

    Meh,
    Would not affect the quality of your contributions

  36. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Pescador: Meh,
    Would not affect the quality of your contributions

    My thoughts exactly.

    It was easy to ignore him and Verdad when it was a conversation with 1-2 regular posters. Now he trolls the entire chat louder than ever. The aggregate level of sophistication has definitely dropped on this site. I’ll label it as deliberate intellectual dishonesty and steering the conversation into meaningless corners.

    The Yotes will lead the division at some point that isn’t the end of the season. So?
    The Oilers lead now and we’re happy they’re doing well. It may not continue but it’s nice being in the tope half of the conversation for the first time in a few years.

  37. Munny says:

    If you could somehow trade for one of Hall or Ehlers, which would you choose? .

  38. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Munny,

    Ehlers.

    Younger and has a superb contract.

  39. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair: GF%
    Makar – 62.86%
    Bear – 43.48%

    It would seem there is a disparity in talent level.

    It would seem that you are moving the goalposts again.

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: because Armchair brought him up in relation to Ethan Bear and posted a bunch of metric that Bear is currently leading in.

    Wrong. But JP corrected the record already.

  41. ArmchairGM says:

    Pescador: Meh,
    Would not affect the quality of your contributions

    ZING!

  42. GMB3 says:

    Man I thought we beat the Hall for Larsson trade to death, but OP and HH certainly murder the concept of points percentage and standings every single night. 🤦🏼‍♂️

    Next up? Is Quinn Hughes still a prospect? More to come this evening

  43. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3:
    Man I thought we beat the Hall for Larsson trade to death, but OP and HH certainly murder the concept of points percentage and standings every single night.

    It’s called: trolling the troll.

  44. Pouzar says:

    Munny:
    If you could somehow trade for one of Hall or Ehlers, which would you choose? .

    What BAG said.

  45. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Joel Persson’s demotion highlights difficult adjustment for Oilers’ ‘European showtime’ trio

    https://theathletic.com/1385901/2019/11/19/lowetide-joel-perssons-demotion-highlights-difficult-adjustment-for-oilers-european-showtime-trio/

  46. Cassandra says:

    That kind of stuff is going to happen when Oiler fan is so caught up in his fandom that he completely loses sense and suggests that Ethan Bear is having as good a season as Cole Makar. That kind of stuff is abject nonsense that only makes us all dumber for having considered it.

    Same as the Nurse is more valuable than Nylander stuff. You people should be better than that.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: 1 point.

    .659 to .636

    Arizona 4 of next 6 at home.

    Oilers 6 of next 7 on the road.

    Loui Eriksson would bet the Coyotes will be ahead in two weeks.

    Its too bad that Loui Eriksson already bet that the Knights would be in first place by now and has no currency left.

    I don’t disagree – I think Arizona is the top team in the division – hoping the Oilers can stay with them and battle for the title for the year.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Wrong. But JP corrected the record already.

    In this thread, if i’m not mistaken, you were the first person to bring up Makar in relation to Bear.

    No worries though – its a good conversation and has led to some nice information.

  49. jp says:

    Cassandra:
    That kind of stuff is going to happen when Oiler fan is so caught up in his fandom that he completely loses sense and suggests that Ethan Bear is having as good a season as Cole Makar.That kind of stuff is abject nonsense that only makes us all dumber for having considered it.

    Same as the Nurse is more valuable than Nylander stuff.You people should be better than that.

    I still think the latter one is in range of reality (even value at least). Sorry for making everyone dumber!

  50. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: In this thread, if i’m not mistaken, you were the first person to bring up Makar in relation to Bear.

    No worries though – its a good conversation and has led to some nice information.

    Only in the context that he and Hughes were getting easier minutes by their HC’s, which is the best way to ease a rookie into the top-4. Here’s my quote:

    “Very much looking forward to seeing Bear flourish when given the same treatment that Makar and Hughes are getting: offensive push, sheltered top-4 with increased PP opportunities.”

  51. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Sorry for making everyone dumber!

    In my case, I’m not sure that’s possible! 🙂

  52. Side says:

    Cassandra:
    That kind of stuff is going to happen when Oiler fan is so caught up in his fandom that he completely loses sense and suggests that Ethan Bear is having as good a season as Cole Makar.That kind of stuff is abject nonsense that only makes us all dumber for having considered it.

    Same as the Nurse is more valuable than Nylander stuff.You people should be better than that.

    How are you enjoying your Leaf fandom this year?

    Is having a better constructed roster more entertaining and enjoyable than following a team that actually wins?

  53. Pescador says:

    Side: How are you enjoying your Leaf fandom this year?

    Is having a better constructed roster more entertaining and enjoyable than following a team that actually wins?

    Haha, wasn’t that long ago he was giving us all a free lecture about the importance of balance in the line up.
    You got us Cassandra
    Leafs>Oilers the results are in

  54. Genjutsu says:

    Cassandra:
    That kind of stuff is going to happen when Oiler fan is so caught up in his fandom that he completely loses sense and suggests that Ethan Bear is having as good a season as Cole Makar.That kind of stuff is abject nonsense that only makes us all dumber for having considered it.

    Same as the Nurse is more valuable than Nylander stuff.You people should be better than that.

    There are a lot of Leafs fsns that wany to trade Nylander for help on D. RHD specifically. One’s that csn defend and play a top 4 role.

    Larsson would be a nice fit with Reilly. The price for such a player has been established.

    I tell the future. Do you believe me?

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