2019-20 Game 32: Sabres at Oilers

Half of the active Pacific Division (Calgary, Vancouver) held serve on Saturday, with the other half (Los Angeles and San Jose) losing more ground. Today, Anaheim (v. Jets), San Jose (v. Panthers), Vegas (v. Rangers), Arizona (‘Hawks) and Edmonton (v. Sabres) are all in action and by the time the Oilers game ends we could see some major changes in the standings. There are just five points between Edmonton at the top (39) and Calgary at No. 5 overall (34). This won’t change between now and April, and that’s if things break right. With Nuge and Kassian returning and the schedule somewhat inviting, now would be a good time to start a five-game heater.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
  • New Jonathan Willis: Dave Tippett rewarded for his bets on the resilience of Mikko Koskinen, Oilers
  • New Lowetide: How many value contracts do the Oilers have and are any more on the way?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland responds to allegations that Mike Babcock mistreated players in Detroit
  • Jonathan Willis: How will Hart voters choose between Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers turned team defence from a weakness into a strength
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers’ latest roster shuffle and the defencemen involved
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • Minnia Feng: Unsolicited advice for the Oilers: Chinese proverbs edition
  • Jonathan Willis: Are the Oilers good now? Subtle changes add up to sustainable gain
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Mikko Koskinen is seizing his opportunity to take over the Oilers’ crease
  • Lowetide: Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

OILERS AFTER 32 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 14-16-2, 30 points; goal differential -9
  • Oilers in 2016: 15-12-5, 35 points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in 2017: 13-17-2, 28 points; goal differential -10
  • Oilers in 2018: 17-12-3, 37 points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in 2019: 18-10-3, 39 points; goal differential +6

A win tonight gets Edmonton to 41 points after 32 games. The Oilers could win just one point per game moving forward (should they win tonight) and still finish with 91 points on the campaign. Now, it’s possible 94+ points will be required to make the postseason unless a couple of teams fall away, but the key takeaway this morning is that the dogs are barking, the chase is on, and the Oilers remain in a good spot.

OILERS IN DECEMBER

  • Oilers in December 2015: 4-0-0, eight points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in December 2016: 2-0-2, six points; goal differential +2
  • Oilers in December 2017: 2-2-0, four points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in December 2018: 3-1-0, six points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in December 2019: 2-1-0, four points; goal differential -1

Oilers have been solid to excellent in the first week or so of December and this year’s team could set the foundation for a strong month with a win tonight. Sabres played yesterday afternoon so they could tired by the third period. Edmonton’s reinforcements include (apparently) Zack Kassian and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER

  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0)
  • At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0)
  • At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1)
  • At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 2-1-0, 4 points in 3 games

After tonight’s game, the club will play the Hurricanes, Wild, Leafs, Stars and Blues. How many points from that run? I predicted one win and four losses. If Dave Tippett can find a way to grab five points from those games, Edmonton should be able to finish December inside the top three in the Pacific Division. Los Angeles (24 points) and Anaheim (28) are close to losing touch with the leaders, and if San Jose (32) doesn’t fix their goaltending then California slides into the ocean for the 2019-20 playoff race.

OILERS 2019-20

Coach Tippett survived the Nuge absence (3-3-0) and now you’d like to see the team go on a run to ensure December is a success (I have six wins as the line in the sand, a win today gets the team to three victories for the month). Effective Larsson, Nuge and Kassian would be a fantastic lift for the team and a strong Mike Smith performance would be welcome, too.

CONDORS 2019-20

Jay Woodcroft is finding his chemistry up front, the Marody line is starting to roll again. You’d like more offense from everyone but goaltending is the primary issue currently. Defensively, I lined Jones and Bouchard up together, but Lagesson-Bouchard was a tandem a couple of times last night.

TAYLOR HALL

Today’s cover photo is of Taylor Hall during the lockout. The Oilers would be foolish to pass on an opportunity to find out asset cost on this player. I expect they’ll inquire, perhaps make an offer, and then move on to other options.

I think Hall makes more sense as a free-agent acquisition for Ken Holland. Trading for the player could cost Jesse Puljujarvi plus a quality prospect plus a high pick. Edmonton’s current standing has them picking No. 25 and No. 56. Even if the team offers No. 56, JP and (say) William Lagesson, the odds of another team offering a single player with more potential is quite high. Even if you added another item (Kailer Yamamoto?) it’s not going to be enough. You’re just adding in seven’s and nine’s while trading for a king. Someone is going to make an offer that includes one clearly better player and then the package becomes less than ideal.

I think Holland considers Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg and the 2020 first-round pick off limits for trade. I’m not sure if he would move Tyler Benson just because the team badly needs a left winger in the near future. After that, I think you can pile young players to the sky and not reach a package that another team would have trouble exceeding. Someone will offer better.

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443 Responses to "2019-20 Game 32: Sabres at Oilers"

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  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Central
    COL 11
    STL 11
    WPG 7

    Pacific
    EDM 8
    ARI 7
    VAN 4

    Wildcard
    DAL 6
    VEGREVILLE 4

    Out of playoffs
    NSH 3
    CGY 3
    MIN 2
    SJS 1
    CHI 0
    ANA -1
    LAK -7

    CGY wins 4th in a row. Looch with 1g, 1a. That’s 2 for Looch now. Edit: *Conditions on the 3rd to CGY via Cap Friendly: Pick is transferred if James Neal scores 21 goals and Milan Lucic scores 10 or fewer goals than Neal in the 2019-20 season. (h/t to Geowal for the correction)

    Current count: Neal 14, Looch 2. Go Looch!!

    SJS fading a bit again after a surge. They can’t can’t outscore their shitty goaltending. Lost 7-1 last night to TBY and play FLA this afternoon.

    DAL continues to move up. When Hellebuyck comes back to Earth they’ll probably pass WPG.

    The weirdly not terrible Rags are in Vegreville today. Georgiev is looking good with 13gp and putting up a .919 to Lundqvist’s .910.

    NYR being +3 to Bettman .500 and challenging for a playoff spot while “rebuilding” shows you what a high end winger who drives play can do for a team if they have defence and goaltending eh? Panrin has 34 points in 28 games playing with *checks notes* Ryan Strome. DoNt PaY wInGeRs ThEy ArEnT As ImPoRtAnT aS cEnTeRs

    Fox is playing well for NYR too, especially on the PP. Rookie Dman has 15pts in 25gp. Yet another hot skating sub 6’0″ rookie Dman doing well this year. Treliving got hosed basically throwing him in the Hamilton deal. At least CAR got a 2nd and a conditional 3rd for him when he wouldn’t sign there either.

    Fleury probably starts for the Flying Holubstis, it will be his first game back since losing to EDM on November 23rd. Was away from the team for a personal matter.

    With Fluery rested they might go on a tear.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Metropolitan
    WSH 18
    NYI 12
    PHI 9

    Atlantic
    BOS 16
    FLA 5
    TBY 4

    Wildcard
    PIT 8
    CAR 7

    Out of playoffs
    NYR 3
    BUF 2
    MTL 2
    TOR 1
    CBJ -3
    OTT -5
    NJD -6
    DET -14

    The Metropolitan is a division of piss cutters. Both PIT and CAR are in the Met too.

    FLA have a new back up in Driedger. Unlike SJS, FLA have out scored their shitty goaltending to have a playoff spot.

    Bob is .889 in 22 games, Montembeault is .889 in 7 games, Driedger is .942 in 2 games. (one shutout win, one .880 loss)

    Driedger was a 3rd rounder in 2012. Last season in the AHL he put up .924 in 32 games and then .938 in 14 games this year before getting the call. OTT draft pick who they didn’t re-sign in the summer of 2018.

    This year’s Binnington-lite? (he won’t take 1G from $10MM Bob unless Bob gets hurt)

    Bob played last night (only let in 1 goal and won) so Driedger probably starts this afternoon vs SJS.

    Connolly leads FLA in 5v5 Goals/60 and is 4th in the NHL with 1.89/60 (11 goals). He has 2 PP goals as well, but Dadanov plays RW on PP1 there and Connolly is PP2.

    You could have bought out Gagner and not signed Chiasson to make the $ work here. Damn.

    Assuming TBY continues trending up, if Bob finds his level and Driedger provides ~20 more games of credible goalering TOR might be in tough to make it to 3rd in the Atlantic.

    I’ll be following FLA for the year as I think 3rd in the Atlantic will come down to them vs TOR.

    I am also enjoying the Connolly updates.

  3. leadfarmer says:

    Serious lack of Canucks info in the right up LT

  4. geowal says:

    Woodguy v2.0: CGY wins 4th in a row. Looch with 1g, 1a. That’s 2 for Looch now. If he gets 11 goals EDM doesn’t owe CGY a 3rd regardless of how many Neal scores. Go Looch!!

    Technically Looch can score 15 and Neal 26 and the pick is still sent to Calgary. It’s a “ten or greater” differential wording, not absolute. Don’t expect that to happen, but I’m fairly certain that’s the scenario.

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    geowal: Technically Looch can score 15 and Neal 26 and the pick is still sent to Calgary. It’s a “ten or greater” differential wording, not absolute. Don’t expect that to happen, but I’m fairly certain that’s the scenario.

    Dammit, read it wrong. Will change it.

  6. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Serious lack of Canucks info in the right up LT

    I feel shame.

  7. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: I feel shame.

    Schlub

  8. Jethro Tull says:

    Ken Holland wouldn’t trade Benson for Hall because he needs a left winger?

    I would trade Broberg OR Bouchard, not both.

    LT, I know you’re trying to guess Holland’s mind and you have put a lot of thought and hard work into this, but maybe you’re “smartest man in the room”-ing this a tad? (As in a Lowe/MacTavish/Howson line of thinking, not that you think you are the smartest man in the room!)

    You don’t think Holland would or should trade a +(just) prospect that’s 1-2yrs away in Bouchard, or a who the hell knows, could be revenge of Pulujarvi in Broberg (3-4 yrs away) or what’s starting to look like a late 1st rounder for one of the premier players in the league. Or Tyler Benson.

    Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM. The amount Hall would instantly improve this team offsets any improvement any of these players could ever bring.

  9. geowal says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Dammit, read it wrong.Will change it.

    All good. Great summary. My wife gets mad when I watch non-Oiler hockey so appreciate the analysis, I rely on the old “the score” channel morning highlights on weekdays. Which btw, have started having occasional talking head segments which is an annoyance if your goal is to see as many of last nights games in ten minutes or so.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:

    Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM.

    I would not pay that price.

  11. Oilin4 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Ken Holland wouldn’t trade Benson for Hall because he needs a left winger?

    I would trade Broberg OR Bouchard, not both.

    LT, I know you’re trying to guess Holland’s mind and you have put a lot of thought and hard work into this, but maybe you’re “smartest man in the room”-ing this a tad? (As in a Lowe/MacTavish/Howson line of thinking, not that you think you are the smartest man in the room!)

    You don’t think Holland would or should trade a +(just) prospect that’s 1-2yrs away in Bouchard, or a who the hell knows, could be revenge of Pulujarvi in Broberg (3-4 yrs away) or what’s starting to look like a late 1st rounder for one of the premier players in the league. Or Tyler Benson.

    Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM. The amount Hall would instantly improve this team offsets any improvement any of these players could ever bring.

    That’s an absurd price for a rental.

  12. geowal says:

    Lowetide: I would not pay that price.

    Seconded. If he had some term left maybe, but as a rental? Seems steep. The rental market has also (mostly) been trending down it seems so hopefully that continues now that we’re on the opposite side.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM. The amount Hall would instantly improve this team offsets any improvement any of these players could ever bring.

    If Hall is just a rental paying that price is a fire-able offense.

  14. oilersjo says:

    why would you give up expansion draft exemptions. Those players are your ongoing foundation

  15. HT Joe says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Jethro Tull,
    If Hall is just a rental paying that price is a fire-able offense.

    Sure, but as an Oilers GM, Holland should have to do at least 2 or 3 fireable offences before it starts to matter…

  16. Jethro Tull says:

    Oilin4: That’s an absurd price for a rental.

    What’s absurd is the wilful lack of recognizing a situation for what it is.

    Looks like we’re back to compelting GMs to give us good players for nothing.

    Weber is now Hall and the rights to Omark isn’t even Tyler Benson. Heck, if I’d suggested JP, I’d still be shouted down.

    All I ask is that things are looked at objectively. Which I’m sure some of you THINK you’re doing.

    What do YOU want this team to be? To do? And how do they accomplish this? Do they realistically have the means of achieving it within a defined amount of time? (We’ll say half way through Connor and Leon’s contract.)

    If you are doing this honestly, you should have some pleasant and not so pleasant epiphanies.

  17. HT Joe says:

    I was catching up on reading the thread last night, and OP indicated that if RNH leaves, the Oilers can sign a replacement player with the cap space (I’m paraphrasing OP… sorry if I’m missing something).

    What I’d like to know is who was the last professional free agent top 6 forward that the Oilers signed, who really worked out? Whether it’s poor Oilers management / poor coaching / “Edmonton Sucks” etc., I can’t remember the Oilers using available money to successfully sign a helpful top six player.

    I guess Penner, but he was an offer sheet, and only kind of counts.

  18. Side says:

    Jethro Tull:

    Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM. The amount Hall would instantly improve this team offsets any improvement any of these players could ever bring.

    Wow. I really like Hall but this is quite the claim. 40-50 games of the Rental Hall will be better than anything Benson, Broberg or a 1st round pick in a very deep draft can ever give the Oilers? This sounds like a HH bet.

  19. slopitch says:

    To me it boils down to Colorado and Bryam. I dont think theyd move him but they are setup so well for this year they just might. If we assume New Jersey wants D and that a Colorado package would be Newhook + a 1st then maybe the Oilers have a chance. JP, Samorukov and a 2nd? Thats about as high as I’d go and if thats not enough, so be it.

  20. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Jethro Tull,

    Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM. The amount Hall would instantly improve this team offsets any improvement any of these players could ever bring.

    If Hall is just a rental paying that price is a fire-able offense.

    For sure. Just like Doug was fired for trading for Karlsson.

    Do nothing and win = ideal.

    Do something and win = acceptable

    Do something and lose = fired

    Do nothing and lose = should be abhorrent, but here you are applauded for keeping dry powder and playing the long game.

    The verbal.has been that Hall would be open to signing.

    I don’t actually believe it will happen because Weather Vane Bob has been nixing Hall and pushing Wood (ahem).

  21. yeraslob says:

    HT Joe:
    I was catching up on reading the thread last night, and OP indicated that if RNH leaves, the Oilers can sign a replacement player with the cap space (I’m paraphrasing OP… sorry if I’m missing something).

    What I’d like to know is who was the last professional free agent top 6 forward that the Oilers signed, who really worked out?Whether it’s poor Oilers management / poor coaching / “Edmonton Sucks” etc., I can’t remember the Oilers using available money to successfully sign a helpful top six player.

    I guess Penner, but he was an offer sheet, and only kind of counts.

    The back and forth between red-faced Burke and red-nosed Lowe was hilarious!

  22. Jethro Tull says:

    Side: Wow. I really like Hall but this is quite the claim. 40-50 games of the Rental Hall will be better than anything Benson, Broberg or a 1st round pick in a very deep draft can ever give the Oilers? This sounds like a HH bet.

    Deep draft is a fallacy only supported in hindsight after when people point out outliers becoming impact players or the quantity of players who played x number of NHL games.

    And Benson isn’t even playing up here. The perfect opportunity to give him a cup of coffee just sailed by.

  23. Bling says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Ken Holland wouldn’t trade Benson for Hall because he needs a left winger?

    I would trade Broberg OR Bouchard, not both.

    LT, I know you’re trying to guess Holland’s mind and you have put a lot of thought and hard work into this, but maybe you’re “smartest man in the room”-ing this a tad? (As in a Lowe/MacTavish/Howson line of thinking, not that you think you are the smartest man in the room!)

    You don’t think Holland would or should trade a +(just) prospect that’s 1-2yrs away in Bouchard, or a who the hell knows, could be revenge of Pulujarvi in Broberg (3-4 yrs away) or what’s starting to look like a late 1st rounder for one of the premier players in the league. Or Tyler Benson.

    Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM. The amount Hall would instantly improve this team offsets any improvement any of these players could ever bring.

    Too steep.

    IMO you could justify putting the first in play. Even in a deep draft, that player is most likely 5 years away. I think the Oilers window is now.

    I wouldn’t give up Bouchard, Samorukov or Broberg. Way too much upside.

  24. Bling says:

    leadfarmer:
    Serious lack of Canucks info in the right up LT

    lol

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Rental trades involving a 1st 18/19:

    WPG – acquires Kevin Hayes
    NYR – acquires 2019 1st, Brendan Lemiuex, 2022 conditional 4th

    Synopsis – Chevy got hosed and hosed badly

    CBJ – acquires Duchene & Bergman
    OTT – acquires 2019 1st, Abramov, Davidson and a conditional first if Duchene re-signs

    Synopsis – Kekäläinen pushed his chips in the middle, upset TBY and lost in the 2nd. Hosed.

    That’s it for last year.

    17/18 trades for a rental involving a 1st:

    Note -JT Miller and McDonagh each had a year left on their contracts, they were not rentals in the big NYR/TBY trade

    Note: SJS/BUF trade for Kane was a 2nd + O’Regan that upgraded to a 1st if Kane re-signed so it doesn’t count

    Note: NSH/CHI trade for Hartman. Hartman was RFA so not a rental. Poile still got hosed.

    WPG – acquires Stastny
    STL – acquires top 3 protected 1st (if WPG drafted top 3 the 1st goes to 2019), Foley, conditional 4th

    Synopsis – Chevy got hosed but that was a big hole and it was the first time they were *really* a contender.

    BOS- acquires Nash
    NYR- acquires Ryan Spooner, Matt Beleskey, Ryan Lindgren, 2018 1st round pick, 2019 7th round pick

    Synopsis – Tidy bit of business by Gorton who parlayed Spooner into his *checks notes* 1C Ryan Strome.

    PIT acquires – Brassard (with VGK retaining in the middle for a pick) , Linberg, Dunn, and 2018 3rd round pick
    OTT acquires- 2018 1st round pick, Filip Gustavsson, Ian Cole, 2019 3rd round pick
    VGK – acquires – Reaves, 2018 4th

    Crazy as it sounds Dorian did well. OTT wins this a walk. Rutherford pisses away yet another 1st

    That’s it for the last 2 years.

    EDM is no where near good enough to give up a first for a rental and even then its a bad idea.

  26. Oilin4 says:

    Jethro Tull: Deep draft is a fallacy only supported in hindsight after when people point out outliers becoming impact players or the quantity of players who played x number of NHL games.

    And Benson isn’t even playing up here. The perfect opportunity to give him a cup of coffee just sailed by.

    I don’t value Benson as much as most here. But two firsts for a rental? You want objective facts:

    When Vegas acquired Stone and after they had agreed to an extension., they gave up Lindberg Branstrom and a 2nd. That was for a player Vegas had already signed, not a rental. This conversation is ridiculous.

  27. Oilin4 says:

    Oilin4: I don’t value Benson as much as most here. But two firsts for a rental? You want objective facts:

    When Vegas acquired Stone and after they had agreed to an extension., they gave up Lindberg Branstrom and a 2nd. That was for a player Vegas had already signed, not a rental. This conversation is ridiculous.

    I see WG beat me to it…..

  28. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    HT Joe: Sure, but as an Oilers GM, Holland should have to do at least 2 or 3 fireable offences before it starts to matter…

    Gotta Trust Pete and his Cup Ring

  29. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: EDM is no where near good enough to give up a first for a rental and even then its a bad idea.

    Edmonton isn’t good enough NOT to trade for better players. There’s no cavalry coming. We have some solid D prospects. No more, but it’s a leap to say any of them will become the impact players we need. Serviceable NHLers, yes, and Lord knows we need them.

    Have we reached the point where we are happy watching Connor and Drai doing they’re thing with occasional play-offs when the goalie is hot?

  30. Jethro Tull says:

    Oilin4: I don’t value Benson as much as most here. But two firsts for a rental? You want objective facts:

    When Vegas acquired Stone and after they had agreed to an extension., they gave up Lindberg Branstrom and a 2nd. That was for a player Vegas had already signed, not a rental. This conversation is ridiculous.

    Hmmm, you had me until your last sentence. You know what you can go and do now. Have a nice cup of tea and a bacon sandwich.

    I didn’t make you answer.

  31. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    slopitch:
    To me it boils down to Colorado and Bryam. I dont think theyd move him but they are setup so well for this year they just might. If we assume New Jersey wants D and that a Colorado package would be Newhook + a 1st then maybe the Oilers have a chance. JP, Samorukov and a 2nd? Thats about as high as I’d go and if thats not enough, so be it.

    COL won’t trade Byrum for a rental. They might if Hall’s extended.

    COL has a good LHD prospect in Conor Timmins. 2nd rounder in 2017. 13pts in 20 gp in his 21 year old rookie AHL season so far this year. They made trade him for a rental.

  32. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Jethro Tull,

    Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM. The amount Hall would instantly improve this team offsets any improvement any of these players could ever bring.

    If Hall is just a rental paying that price is a fire-able offense.

    It goes a lot deeper than the price you would also have to make cap room. Team chemistry is a thing. You do a number on that and your of so smart trade could leaving you looking very foolish. To do an acquisition of Hall requires a lot of moving pieces.?

  33. Oil2Oilers says:

    I won’t dream of Hall returning to the Oilers because it is still to painful to think of the years wasted since that trade.

    The place I hope Hall ends up is Colorado. The AVS are playing very enjoyable hockey to watch, despite early season injury woes. With Hall they would become must see TV.

  34. Bling says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

    See Figure 3.

    The mean games played for a mid 20s first round draft pick is about 250 games. For the 50th pick, it is about 200.

    The valuation change is steep from 1-25, but much less so from 25-50.

    My valuation on putting the first rounder in play is based upon having all of Nuge, Kassian, and Larsson here this season, historic seasons by our dynamic duo, as well as protecting the current elite cluster of prospects.

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: For sure. Just like Doug was fired for trading for Karlsson.

    Do nothing and win = ideal.

    Do something and win = acceptable

    Do something and lose = fired

    Do nothing and lose = should be abhorrent, but here you are applauded for keeping dry powder and playing the long game.

    The verbal.has been that Hall would be open to signing.

    I don’t actually believe it will happen because Weather Vane Bob has been nixing Hall and pushing Wood (ahem).

    I don’t understand your response.

    I didn’t say Wilson should be fired for trading for Karlsson.

    They also got Karlsson for a full season so its not quite a rental.

    They also extended him.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull: Edmonton isn’t good enough NOT to trade for better players. There’s no cavalry coming. We have some solid D prospects. No more, but it’s a leap to say any of them will become the impact players we need. Serviceable NHLers, yes, and Lord knows we need them.

    Have we reached the point where we are happy watching Connor and Drai doing they’re thing with occasional play-offs when the goalie is hot?

    If we are talking about a signed Hall, conversation changes.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bling:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

    See Figure 3.

    The mean games played for a mid 20s first round draft pick is about 250 games. For the 50th pick, it is about 200.

    The valuation change is steep from 1-25, but much less so from 25-50.

    My valuation on putting the first rounder in play is based upon having all of Nuge, Kassian, and Larsson here this season, historic seasons by our dynamic duo, as well as protecting the current elite cluster of prospects.

    I know draft values.

    2020 is not the average draft. Its projected to be better than 2003 and on par with 2015 in terms of depth of talent.

    Thinking EDM is a 25+ pick at this point is wishful thinking.

    2015 draft picks from 15-30:
    Zachary Senyshyn
    Mathew Barzal
    Kyle Connor
    Thomas Chabot
    Evgeny Svechnikov
    Joel Eriksson Ek
    Colin White
    Ilya Samsonov
    Brock Boeser
    Travis Konecny
    Jack Roslovic
    Noah Juulsen
    Jacob Larsson
    Anthony Beauvillier
    Gabriel Carlsson
    Nick Merkley

    2003 draft 15-31:

    Robert Nilsson
    Steve Bernier
    Zach Parise
    Eric Fehr
    Ryan Getzlaf
    Brent Burns
    Mark Stuart
    Marc-Antoine Pouliot
    Ryan Kesler
    Mike Richards
    Anthony Stewart
    Brian Boyle
    Jeff Tambellini
    Corey Perry
    Patrick Eaves
    Shawn Belle

    I’ll say the same thing I’ve said before on the Hall trade.

    I trade for him if he’s extended (even if its just one year as he waits for the cap to jump in 21/22 from the US TV deal)

    If the 2020 1st is involved then Broberg isn’t involved. Bouchard isn’t involved in any scenario.

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: If we are talking about a signed Hall, conversation changes.

    DING DING DING

    Context people.

  39. Side says:

    Jethro Tull: Deep draft is a fallacy only supported in hindsight after when people point out outliers becoming impact players or the quantity of players who played x number of NHL games.

    And Benson isn’t even playing up here. The perfect opportunity to give him a cup of coffee just sailed by.

    Benson, Broberg and the 1st have value though. I feel like that value could be used or packaged with other assets to get a forward or 2 who can provide more than 40-50 games. Rental Hall isn’t the Oilers only option and because of that, the price is very steep, imo.

  40. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Jethro Tull: Edmonton isn’t good enough NOT to trade for better players. There’s no cavalry coming. We have some solid D prospects. No more, but it’s a leap to say any of them will become the impact players we need. Serviceable NHLers, yes, and Lord knows we need them.

    Have we reached the point where we are happy watching Connor and Drai doing they’re thing with occasional play-offs when the goalie is hot?

    There exists a middle ground between giving up two of our best prospects and a 1st for Hall and not doing anything. Just because people don’t want to burn 3 of the team’s 4 best trade assets in one trade doesn’t mean they’re not keen on improving. A space of nuance your comments here seem intent to not only ignore but to deride.

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: Deep draft is a fallacy only supported in hindsight after when people point out outliers becoming impact players or the quantity of players who played x number of NHL games.

    And Benson isn’t even playing up here. The perfect opportunity to give him a cup of coffee just sailed by.

    Bullshit.

    2003 was called deep before it happened.

    2015 was called deep long before it happened.

    Same people call 2020 deep.

  42. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I don’t understand your response.

    I didn’t say Wilson should be fired for trading for Karlsson.

    They also got Karlsson for a full season so its not quite a rental.

    I was in half a mind to as to what to call the Karlsson trade and I didn’t get that across very well like you; not quite a rental.

    I feel I qualified it with the verbal on Hall being open to signing. (From Freidman etal, but they qualify that the actual trade is unlikely to happen anyway.)

    This all stems from One Ring Pete and him not realizing that the 2016 playoff team was actually what he should have built on purpose. He then convinced himself that it was an anomaly and stuck to his plan.

    I just what Ken to be flexible enough to realize there could be a real opportunity here, quicker than he thought, and to adapt accordingly. I believe Hall, or a player like him, is more important to us than D as we have good D a lot closer to maturation than we do Broberg, or next year’s first or indeed, Tyler Benson and his side burns.

  43. McSorley33 says:

    We were all here for the lead up and the actual 2015 draft.

    Strange to see so many people throw around 1st round picks -given the 2020
    projections.

    This team is -multiple – players away from being a serious contender.

    Jtblack summarized quite nicely our lineup the last few games.

    McDavid
    Drai
    Neal
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    So many holes to fill one big game kill won’t correct that

  44. Jethro Tull says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: There exists a middle ground between giving up two of our best prospects and a 1st for Hall and not doing anything. Just because people don’t want to burn 3 of the team’s 4 best trade assets in one trade doesn’t mean they’re not keen on improving. A space of nuance your comments here seem intent to not only ignore but to deride.

    I’m not deriding anyone. Stop being unfriendly….oh, it’s in your name. Carry on!

  45. Oil2Oilers says:

    First an admitted bias; for the last two summer I have called for the trade of Kris Russell as a top priority.

    I also admit that he has played much better on the Left side. He is a very competent bottom pair defender, that can play up the line up on either side for short stints. That player has value.

    But, I still think it is a (the) top priority for Oilers at or before the trade deadline is to trade him. Ideally as part of a package for a 3C, but the return is not the key.

    I view this year as yet another of the Oilers endless ‘development years’ where making progress, not winning the cup, is the goal. So far they are exceeding expectations. Therefore moving on from a player that is not in the long term future of the club and is occupying a spot that could be used to test/train young players is important.

    The Oilers have big challenges next summer trying to find some top end wingers. Knowing which defensive assets, young or old, are expendable will be key. Beyond even the trade value is the long term salary commitments. Next summer will be as influential as the disastrous Hall/Lucic Larsson/Demers one. Do you commit big money and term to Nurse because Yamamoto is a top line winger, or do you cash him in for a player like Ehlers because Jones is a place holder until Broberg is ready?

  46. Glovjuice says:

    Stunning song of the day post: A Strange Day off of The Cure’s Pornography.

    Oh, and IS Kruger all that? That Sabres team has a good roster.

    ps – well Diane Kruger IS all that and more.

  47. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Ken Holland wouldn’t trade Benson for Hall because he needs a left winger?

    I would trade Broberg OR Bouchard, not both.

    LT, I know you’re trying to guess Holland’s mind and you have put a lot of thought and hard work into this, but maybe you’re “smartest man in the room”-ing this a tad? (As in a Lowe/MacTavish/Howson line of thinking, not that you think you are the smartest man in the room!)

    You don’t think Holland would or should trade a +(just) prospect that’s 1-2yrs away in Bouchard, or a who the hell knows, could be revenge of Pulujarvi in Broberg (3-4 yrs away) or what’s starting to look like a late 1st rounder for one of the premier players in the league. Or Tyler Benson.

    Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM. The amount Hall would instantly improve this team offsets any improvement any of these players could ever bring.

    I wouldn’t do it, unless it’s a trade and sign. And do we really need a player as good and expensive as Hall? Do we really need to pay someone $10 mill a year who wouldn’t even play on PP1? I think this team is better off with two players earning $10 mill together.

  48. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Jethro Tull,

    “Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM. “

    Maybe, but that seems like a comment designed to at least fire dissenters up with a hint of derision. However, I’ll concede that perhaps I read too much intent into it. I do have to uphold a brand, after all 😉

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Hall wouldn’t play PP1 if he were an Oiler?

    You know that either Chiasson or Neal play there now right?

    They both play there while RNH were out.

  50. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: I was in half a mind to as to what to call the Karlsson trade and I didn’t get that across very well like you; not quite a rental.

    I feel I qualified it with the verbal on Hall being open to signing. (From Freidman etal, but they qualify that the actual trade is unlikely to happen anyway.)

    This all stems from One Ring Pete and him not realizing that the 2016 playoff team was actually what he should have built on purpose. He then convinced himself that it was an anomaly and stuck to his plan.

    I just what Ken to be flexible enough to realize there could be a real opportunity here, quicker than he thought, and to adapt accordingly. I believe Hall, or a player like him, is more important to us than D as we have good D a lot closer to maturation than we do Broberg, or next year’s first or indeed, Tyler Benson and his side burns.

    Sure Hall would have a ton of value, but you’re proposing far too much value the other way for ~40 games of Hall.

  51. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jethro Tull: What’s absurd is the wilful lack of recognizing a situation for what it is.

    Looks like we’re back to compelting GMs to give us good players for nothing.

    Weber is now Hall and the rights to Omark isn’t even Tyler Benson. Heck, if I’d suggested JP, I’d still be shouted down.

    All I ask is that things are looked at objectively. Which I’m sure some of you THINK you’re doing.

    What do YOU want this team to be? To do? And how do they accomplish this? Do they realistically have the means of achieving it within a defined amount of time? (We’ll say half way through Connor and Leon’s contract.)

    If you are doing this honestly, you should have some pleasant and not so pleasant epiphanies.

    This team needs two forwards. They will need two forwards next year. We are not in a position to trade for rentals. I have no issue trading Broberg,Bouchard, first round picks; but it can’t be for rentals. IMO Holland needs to make a couple of significant trades here or this team doesn’t move forward. But again, not for rentals.

  52. teddyturnbuckle says:

    I noticed the other night Todd Mclennan’s power play and penalty kill is at the bottom of the league again.

  53. Lowetide says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Jethro Tull,

    I’ll concede that perhaps I read too much intent into it. I do have to uphold a brand, after all ?

    I’m just glad your nickname isn’t “I’ll find out where you live and move next door with mischief in mind” because that’s a brand too far!

  54. JimmyV1965 says:

    HT Joe:
    I was catching up on reading the thread last night, and OP indicated that if RNH leaves, the Oilers can sign a replacement player with the cap space (I’m paraphrasing OP… sorry if I’m missing something).

    What I’d like to know is who was the last professional free agent top 6 forward that the Oilers signed, who really worked out?Whether it’s poor Oilers management / poor coaching / “Edmonton Sucks” etc., I can’t remember the Oilers using available money to successfully sign a helpful top six player.

    I guess Penner, but he was an offer sheet, and only kind of counts.

    The way things stack up today, losing RNH is a death blow. Maybe it’s different 18 months from now, but I’m not holding my breath.

  55. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pts2pndr: It goes a lot deeper than the price you would also have to make cap room. Team chemistry is a thing. You do a number on that and your of so smart trade could leaving you looking very foolish. To do an acquisition of Hall requires a lot of moving pieces.

    Friedman and LeBrun have said NJD will retain if required.

    Gagner is enough going the other way to make the $ work if NJD retain half.

    I try to get them to take Chiasson. 🙂

  56. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Lowetide: I’m just glad your nickname isn’t “I’ll find out where you live and move next door with mischief in mind” because that’s a brand too far!

    Well, my brand used to be “I’ll tie you to a radiator before doing unpleasant things to your favourite house plant” but then I ran into someone who didn’t have any houseplants- kinda sewered the whole image. Had to evolve alongside the market. Now I just need to put on a frown and intermittently toss a spider at innocent passersby.

  57. tileguy says:

    Pageau

  58. slopitch says:

    Woodguy v2.0: COL won’t trade Byrum for a rental.They might if Hall’s extended.

    COL has a good LHD prospect in Conor Timmins.2nd rounder in 2017.13pts in 20 gp in his 21 year old rookie AHL season so far this year.They made trade him for a rental.

    Agreed re Bryam and extension.

    Id forgot about Timmins. Pronman had him #8 on his team rankings this fall but Timmins missed a year due to injury. Seems to be coming on this year though. Hed be comparable to Samorukov in value no?

  59. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie

    https://theathletic.com/1440996/2019/12/08/lowetide-oilers-no-5-prospect-winter-2019-raphael-lavoie/

  60. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Where did I read that Hall still isn’t highly regarded by GMs?

    Shero has to do what he can and is trying to get a nice haul for Hall. But he will experience what Oiler GMs have. Hall still caries the same taint it seems. Shero likely won’t get the King’s ransom he’s obligated to try for.

    So what if Hall comes at a reasonable price? JP Jones and a 2nd? Maybe two seconds if he extends? I would go for the 2021 first, Shero may not.

    I agree with Jethro that being too passive is as bad as stupid/too aggressive. I mentioned last thread that the teams at the top also traded to where they are – we could say Bruins, Blues, Avs have.

    But to move a first I would want a younger high end player. Not a guy Hall’s age that could be free next summer. Lesser assets for sure.

  61. Woogie63 says:

    I just don’t want Hall back on the Oilers.

    I feel the book is basically written on the player

    Above average offensive player
    Weak defensive player
    Injury prone
    Can’t elevate others around him
    No play-off experience
    Nearer the end of his career

  62. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Oilers also have a projected ending cap space of 70 840. It would take some impressive deal making to make anything work.

  63. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: COL won’t trade Byrum for a rental.They might if Hall’s extended.

    COL has a good LHD prospect in Conor Timmins.2nd rounder in 2017.13pts in 20 gp in his 21 year old rookie AHL season so far this year.They made trade him for a rental.

    Pretty sure Timmins shoots right.

  64. John Chambers says:

    Anybody buying a Peloton for Christmas for a loved one, or are you afraid of being mocked online by Ryan Reynolds?

  65. Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville says:

    I still say Kreider should be the target.

    Only one year older but also a better history of staying healthy. Less acquisition cost, less AAV to re-sign him. Man, Imagine a universe where we somehow got him and Pageau?

  66. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    JimmyV1965,

    Hall wouldn’t play PP1 if he were an Oiler?

    You know that either Chiasson or Neal play there now right?

    They both play there while RNH were out.

    I don’t want to pay someone $10 mill to be the netfront presence guy and that’s not a role Hall is best suited for. He’s not replacing Klef or any dman. That leaves Nuge. He might be marginally better, but I don’t think it improves the PP much. The team is better off investing $10 mill in two players.

  67. Darth Tu says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Ken Holland wouldn’t trade Benson for Hall because he needs a left winger?

    I would trade Broberg OR Bouchard, not both.

    LT, I know you’re trying to guess Holland’s mind and you have put a lot of thought and hard work into this, but maybe you’re “smartest man in the room”-ing this a tad? (As in a Lowe/MacTavish/Howson line of thinking, not that you think you are the smartest man in the room!)

    You don’t think Holland would or should trade a +(just) prospect that’s 1-2yrs away in Bouchard, or a who the hell knows, could be revenge of Pulujarvi in Broberg (3-4 yrs away) or what’s starting to look like a late 1st rounder for one of the premier players in the league. Or Tyler Benson.

    Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM. The amount Hall would instantly improve this team offsets any improvement any of these players could ever bring.

    Jethro – you’ve jumped the shark here.

    Why give up Broberg – a possible long term part of the top 4 D, plus a first, plus a decent wing prospect (the top in the system arguably) for a rental.

    Looking at it another way, if Hall is willing to sign here let him do it in the summer, provided we can make the cap work. That way we’re giving up none of the future for a player that may only be here for a few months. I get where you’re going but sacrificing the long term quality of the team for one player who may not sign is beyond risky.

  68. yeraslob says:

    Did the Kings perpetually bank it off the boards/glass to get it out of the D zone the other night? I forgot to look for that.

  69. Lowetide says:

    Smith starts, Nuge and Kassian back.

  70. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville:
    I still say Kreider should be the target.

    Only one year older but also a better history of staying healthy. Less acquisition cost,less AAV to re-sign him.Man, Imagine a universe where we somehow got him and Pageau?

    I’d even settle for Kreider (Chiasson & cond. 1st [becomes 2020 1st if the Oilers make the Conference Finals; if not it’s 2021]) and Anderson (Jesse & Jones).

    McDavid- Drai- Kassian
    Kreider- Nuge- Anderson

    So long as Anderson finds the offense again, that’s a solid enough top-6 to carry the goal share if Haas’ line can keep mostly sawing off. Might still like a bottom-6 addition as well, but cap space n whatnot.

  71. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Avs have 5 roster players that they drafted, McKinnon Landeskog Rantanen Makar Jost.

    Draft the high end skill, trade and sign to build the team faster?

    Joe is a sneaky smart devil.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Very happy to read confirmation that both Kass and Nuge are back to tonight. What a lift.

    Not as much confidence with Smith starting but I understand it – Mikko has started three straight and we play every second night for a couple weeks. Important to ensure he’s not just “not run down” but actually rested.

    From what we are learning, 2 full days rest for goalies makes a difference.

  73. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Gotta Trust Pete and his Cup Ring

    Speaking of Colorado, remember when we (everyone here, not you and I) were debating Koskinen vs Francouz?

    Francouz has a lightly used 11gp, .931 this season. $950 k.

    Nice trade for Burakovsky too. 12 goals. 22 points.

    Is Sakic the new Yzerman?

  74. leadfarmer says:

    Hall will not return Byram even with a signed contract.
    I could see 1st and Timmins. Or maybe Jost involved but definitely not Byram

    Interesting that Chayka is after Hall. He just doesnt do forward well.
    Overpayed Keller significantly.
    Brought in Kessel who is pretty impressively sitting at just over 0.5 ppg and a minus 15 !!
    Stepans days of being a top 6 player are done and hes also sitting at a negative 6
    At least Soderberg is doing well

  75. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan: Speaking of Colorado, remember when we (everyone here, not you and I) were debating Koskinen vs Francouz?

    Francouz has a lightly used 11gp, .931 this season. $950 k.

    Nice trade for Burakovsky too. 12 goals. 22 points.

    Is Sakic the new Yzerman?

    The discussion was last year when everyone was trying to throw Koskinen off the Island
    And I brought up how poorly Francouz Samsonov were doing the first half of the year and they were doing it in the AHL while Koskinen was in the NHL and you need to give these Euro guys a year to transition. Now all three are in the NHL and are having very solid years

    It was a good offseason to have cap space. I really wanted Burakovsky and Donskoi. Would have fixed our third line, by taking over the second line

  76. Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: I’d even settle for Kreider (Chiasson & cond. 1st [becomes 2020 1st if the Oilers make the Conference Finals; if not it’s 2021]) and Anderson (Jesse & Jones).

    McDavid- Drai- Kassian
    Kreider- Nuge- Anderson

    So long as Anderson finds the offense again, that’s a solid enough top-6 to carry the goal share so long as Haas’ line can keep mostly sawing off. Might still like a bottom-6 addition as well, but cap space n whatnot.

    Yeah, I’d actually take a long look at Kreider on McDs LW freeing up Drai to push the river on L2 and then Nuge becomes an Elite 3C

    Kreider McD Kassian
    Neal Drai Anderson
    Benson Nuge Chiasson

  77. leadfarmer says:

    John Chambers:
    Anybody buying a Peloton for Christmas for a loved one, or are you afraid of being mocked online by Ryan Reynolds?

    Unfortunately I dont have a custom raised wooden platform in front of giant windows with a cityscape or a yoga room with 16 foot windows to put one in. So I will have to settle with a regular stationary bike

  78. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ryan: Speaking of Colorado, remember when we (everyone here, not you and I) were debating Koskinen vs Francouz?

    Francouz has a lightly used 11gp, .931 this season. $950 k.

    Nice trade for Burakovsky too. 12 goals. 22 points.

    Is Sakic the new Yzerman?

    Maybe. Decent bets, but they are getting a lot of better than career numbers out of a fair few. Might continue, might regress to the meat.

    Holland made decent bets, but for some reason the Oilers still tank scoring out of lesser players, the Avs are seeing the opposite. If Holland’s bets were scoring at career rates it would be a lot better.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Managing to win some games and scrape some points with two top 6 forwards out of the lineup has been massive. Scoring behind McDavid and Drai is the team’s biggest weakness and they managed to hang in there with, essentially, the top two non-McDrai contributors.

    Getting them back will be a book – it slides two players down the lineup, it helps the PP, it helps the PK, it just helps the team.

    It guarantees absolutely nothing but, gosh darn, it sure helps.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Hockey Sage is fairly adamant that the Oilers have indeed inquired into Hall’s acquisition cost and had discussions.

    I can’t imagine Holland paying premium prices for the rental nor agreeing to sign the man to term plus Leon plus money. Well, I could see the second way more than the first but I don’t really seen any.

    Neither gel with his clearly stated plan and I don’t think first place in the division by a point is enough to change his overall plan.

    Agreed, no way he moves the two high end d-prospects or the first pick in the 2020 draft – small chance he’d be OK with moving the 2021 1st rounder but I don’t think that gets Hall.

  81. flyfish1168 says:

    Who knew all lucic needed was a RH Centerman

  82. Oilpower says:

    What about nurse for a signed hall and a 3rd line center?

  83. Reja says:

    Lowetide:
    Smith starts, Nuge and Kassian back.

    Yea baby. Buffalo will have a burr under their saddle after the ending yesterday.

  84. Reja says:

    John Chambers:
    Anybody buying a Peloton for Christmas for a loved one, or are you afraid of being mocked online by Ryan Reynolds?

    Is that the new Crock Pot everyone is raving about.

  85. JimmyV1965 says:

    Reja: Yea baby. Buffalo will have a burr under their saddle after the ending yesterday.

    I’m not sure about that. They might be pretty happy to get the 1 pt. They were down 2 goals with 10 minutes left and would have won in OT if it wasn’t for a questionable call. Not saying we will win though.

  86. Bank Shot says:

    flyfish1168:
    Who knew all lucic needed was a RH Centerman

    He’s been playing with one all season hasn’t he?

  87. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer: The discussion was last year when everyone was trying to throw Koskinen off the Island
    And I brought up how poorly Francouz Samsonov were doing the first half of the year and they were doing it in the AHL while Koskinen was in the NHL and you need to give these Euro guys a year to transition.Now all three are in the NHL and are having very solid years

    It was a good offseason to have cap space.I really wanted Burakovsky and Donskoi.Would have fixed our third line, by taking over the second line

    There was debate at the time both were signed. Francouz was younger with better KHL stats. Sakic signed him to $950 k x 2.

    Koskinen got $2.5m x1 which if you recall blocked extending Nurse.

    Speaking of Burakovsky, Sakic got him for a second and third along with a throw in.

    Who are the other Burakovskys out there?

    I thought Kempe might be. The Kings are a bit of a mess. Maybe they think he’s a bit of a disappointment.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Much speculation on a Hall trade here:

    http://www.spectorshockey.net/2019/12/sunday-nhl-rumor-roundup-december-8-2019/

    Avs have a self imposed salary cap ???
    But wasnt there a poster who was very recently telling us that billiionaires are going to billion their billions around

  89. Harpers Hair says:

    Sabre’s rookie Victor Olufsson worth keeping any eye on.

    He doesn’t get much press outside of Buffalo but is leading all rookies with 12 goals and 26 points in 30 games.

  90. flyfish1168 says:

    Bank Shot: He’s been playing with one all season hasn’t he?

    I got the sense from phlegm news the new coach geoff ward just put derek ryan at center for lucic.

  91. flyfish1168 says:

    Oilpower:
    What about nurse for a signed hall and a 3rd line center?

    I feel Nurse is a player we need to keep. He is the type you don’t just go to battle with. You win the war with him. (playoffs)

  92. Bank Shot says:

    flyfish1168: I got the sense from phlegm news the new coach geoff ward just put derek ryan at center for lucic.

    Nah. They have played together most of the season.

  93. yeraslob says:

    leadfarmer: Avs have a self imposed salary cap ???
    But wasnt there a poster who was very recently telling us that billiionaires are going to billion their billions around

    Pure conjecture on that poster’s part and, should be summarily dismissed as such
    If I had a billion dollars, I just may want another billion. Human greed – it’s real and it’s spectacular.

  94. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ryan: There was debate at the time both were signed. Francouz was younger with better KHL stats. Sakic signed him to $950 k x 2.

    Koskinen got $2.5m x1 which if you recall blocked extending Nurse.

    Speaking of Burakovsky, Sakic got him for a second and third along with a throw in.

    Who are the other Burakovskys out there?

    I thought Kempe might be. The Kings are a bit of a mess. Maybe they think he’s a bit of a disappointment.

    I’ve been looking around this AM, apparently Mittelstadt has been ‘disappointing’. They don’t really need D though.

  95. Ryan says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Maybe. Decent bets, but they are getting a lot of better than career numbers out of a fair few. Might continue, might regress to the meat.

    Holland made decent bets, but for some reason the Oilers still tank scoring out of lesser players, the Avs are seeing the opposite. If Holland’s bets were scoring at career rates it would be a lot better.

    The difference is talent and ages of players he’s acquiring.

    It’s easy to forget that all of the lesser players Holland acquired are already on the decline in terms of offensive production. Granny, Nygard, Haas, Sheahan, Archibald…

    Those guys are all over 25 when offense tends to peak. Not to mention low skill players at the NHL level…

    Sakic also hosed the wonderkid Dubas in the Kadri trade.

    He’s done some impressive work.

  96. Pescador says:

    John Chambers:
    Anybody buying a Peloton for Christmas for a loved one, or are you afraid of being mocked online by Ryan Reynolds?

    Definitely buying one to put in my basement next to my $3000 dust collecting towel dryer thingy.

  97. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    With the development of Sam Steel well underway and Anaheim looking like they need to go into full rebuild mode, wouldn’t Henrique better fit our true need of a 3C at far less acquisition cost and ongoing contract cost versus chasing Hall?

  98. tcho says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I know draft values.

    2003 draft 15-31:

    Robert Nilsson
    Steve Bernier
    Zach Parise
    Eric Fehr
    Ryan Getzlaf
    Brent Burns
    Mark Stuart
    Marc-Antoine Pouliot
    Ryan Kesler
    Mike Richards
    Anthony Stewart
    Brian Boyle
    Jeff Tambellini
    Corey Perry
    Patrick Eaves
    Shawn Belle

    I have this feeling that Marc-Antoine Poulliot kid’s going to be a player.

    Thanks for the last few years of trade analysis, too.

    It’s clear to me that you do NOT include top prospects/picks for an unsigned Hall.

    I’d also lean against top prospects/picks for a signed Hall, but it’s a tougher decision. I just feel like it hamstrings us too much with the cap going forward. The Oilers would just have such a huge % of salary invested in so few forwards… and the rest are replacement level (Sheahan, Archibald, Granlund, etc. etc.)? I think the Oilers need to keep a pipeline of prospects coming up for the next several years to complement our (excellent but small) core on the cheap, and hopefully be able to expand that core with the cap room to sign those that progress into it.

    Hall sure is tempting though. Nuge would actually have a winger to play with, and that might entice him to stay.

  99. RISTOOOOO SILTANEN!!!! says:

    John Chambers: Peloton

    Nope. But I’m gonna probably try the gin.

    Martini’s > stationary biking

    And martini’s and stationary biking of any flavour are mutually exclusive options in my world.

  100. Ryan says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic:
    With the development of Sam Steel well underway and Anaheim looking like they need to go into full rebuild mode, wouldn’t Henrique better fit our true need of a 3C at far less acquisition cost and ongoing contract cost versus chasing Hall?

    Palmieri is a guy that always seems to look all-world when we play the devils.

    He has a modified NTC, so that’s a problem.

    Even adding a Palmieri would change the complex of our team.

    We could have two scoring lines or load up the top line.

    Draisatl – McSuperhero – Palmieri

    At least he has one more year on the contract.

  101. tcho says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic,

    Almost $6mil/season, for four more seasons beyond this one for an about to be 30yr old centre who would slot into the 3rd line? That’s a hard no for me.

  102. JimmyV1965 says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic:
    With the development of Sam Steel well underway and Anaheim looking like they need to go into full rebuild mode, wouldn’t Henrique better fit our true need of a 3C at far less acquisition cost and ongoing contract cost versus chasing Hall?

    This is interesting. Historically his numbers are better than Pageau’s. However, he’s probably overpaid at $5.8 mill. On the other hand, I think he would bring some value to the team despite being overpaid. He’s only 33 when the contract expires though. Intriguing option.

  103. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: leadfarmer:
    Serious lack of Canucks info in the right up LT

    I feel shame.

    Well then you’re in a perfect position to write from a Canucks fan perspective 🙂

  104. Andy Dufresne says:

    Jethro Tull: What’s absurd is the wilful lack of recognizing a situation for what it is.

    Looks like we’re back to compelting GMs to give us good players for nothing.

    Weber is now Hall and the rights to Omark isn’t even Tyler Benson. Heck, if I’d suggested JP, I’d still be shouted down.

    All I ask is that things are looked at objectively. Which I’m sure some of you THINK you’re doing.

    What do YOU want this team to be? To do? And how do they accomplish this? Do they realistically have the means of achieving it within a defined amount of time? (We’ll say half way through Connor and Leon’s contract.)

    If you are doing this honestly, you should have some pleasant and not so pleasant epiphanies.

    Keep digging…..you’ll be out of this hole very soon…..

  105. Andy Dufresne says:

    Jethro Tull: For sure. Just like Doug was fired for trading for Karlsson.

    Do nothing and win = ideal.

    Do something and win = acceptable

    Do something and lose = fired

    Do nothing and lose = should be abhorrent, but here you are applauded for keeping dry powder and playing the long game.

    The verbal.has been that Hall would be open to signing.

    I don’t actually believe it will happen because Weather Vane Bob has been nixing Hall and pushing Wood (ahem).

    Dig Faster!

  106. Andy Dufresne says:

    Jethro Tull: Deep draft is a fallacy only supported in hindsight after when people point out outliers becoming impact players or the quantity of players who played x number of NHL games.

    And Benson isn’t even playing up here. The perfect opportunity to give him a cup of coffee just sailed by.

    Try digging a side tunnel.

  107. Andy Dufresne says:

    Jethro Tull: Edmonton isn’t good enough NOT to trade for better players. There’s no cavalry coming. We have some solid D prospects. No more, but it’s a leap to say any of them will become the impact players we need. Serviceable NHLers, yes, and Lord knows we need them.

    Have we reached the point where we are happy watching Connor and Drai doing they’re thing with occasional play-offs when the goalie is hot?

    If you dig deep enough you may hit water and be able to float to the surface.Dig man. Put your back into it.

  108. Andy Dufresne says:

    Jethro Tull: I was in half a mind to as to what to call the Karlsson trade and I didn’t get that across very well like you; not quite a rental.

    I feel I qualified it with the verbal on Hall being open to signing. (From Freidman etal, but they qualify that the actual trade is unlikely to happen anyway.)

    This all stems from One Ring Pete and him not realizing that the 2016 playoff team was actually what he should have built on purpose. He then convinced himself that it was an anomaly and stuck to his plan.

    I just what Ken to be flexible enough to realize there could be a real opportunity here, quicker than he thought, and to adapt accordingly. I believe Hall, or a player like him, is more important to us than D as we have good D a lot closer to maturation than we do Broberg, or next year’s first or indeed, Tyler Benson and his side burns.

    Wait. All the dirt your tossing up is falling back into the hole. Start looking for prescious gems….at least you can die rich. 🙂

  109. defmn says:

    JimmyV1965: I wouldn’t do it, unless it’s a trade and sign. And do we really need a player as good and expensive as Hall? Do we really need to pay someone $10 mill a year who wouldn’t even play on PP1? I think this team is better off with two players earning $10 mill together.

    I agree with this. Actually I think the team needs two $4 mil players and a $2 mil guy in the bottom six if there really is $10 mil to spend – something I think can be found only if we get very lucky involving Neal & Russel or through pain elsewhere in the lineup.

    This team is a long ways from balanced imo.

  110. digger50 says:

    I was down for 94 points at the start of the season and I am enjoying the ride so far.

    Totally underestimated our top duo
    Goaltenders excelled
    Penalty kill players have been going
    Goal against with McDavid off number has improved

    So credit to the Oil to get this far.

    Now I’m loving that the discussion has turned to improving the team. A cautious approach is still required but looks like the tide has turned and the majority are quite willing to spend a little and see what we can do this season. I think that’s a fantastic idea.

    Hall would be best served going to the Avs for a cup push, then I would be happy if Edmonton could sign him as a f/a in summer.

    Hall aside, we still need to do more than just tweaks. Incremental moves to get better. See who is going to help from the AHL. Save room for a bigger acquisition at the deadline.

    But the GM should not sit on this team, that will be a huge mistake.

  111. Andy Dufresne says:

    Those boxcars in Barkersfiled are BRUTAL.

    F#ck Two Way hockey…..someone set the kids free….teach them how to score please.

    Lavoie is our best last chance.

    Draft only forwards in 2020 or Best Player Available……if he is a forward…..

  112. Bling says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    I noticed the other night Todd Mclennan’s power play and penalty kill is at the bottom of the league again.

    Godot was in early on McLellan being mediocre.

    I’ll tell you, he made me scratch my head the year after the playoff run when he said he wanted Klefbom to take 300 shots a season.

    300 low quality shots from the blue?

    Oh great.

  113. digger50 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Wait. All the dirt your tossing up is falling back into the hole. Start looking for prescious gems….at least you can die rich.

    Just because you use a smiley face doesn’t mean your not being a dick.?

  114. Reja says:

    leadfarmer: Avs have a self imposed salary cap ???
    But wasnt there a poster who was very recently telling us that billiionaires are going to billion their billions around

    Remember when he heard from his sources on the bat cave phone that JP plus we’re getting traded for a couple of AHL shrubs in the Canuckle organization.

  115. tileguy says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Lol, you’re killing it today!

  116. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    John Chambers,

    Where mocking is concerned, Ryan Reynolds is a pisscutter … no Peloton for me.

  117. Andy Dufresne says:

    Glovjuice:
    Stunning song of the day post: A Strange Day off of The Cure’s Pornography.

    Oh, and IS Kruger all that? That Sabres team has a good roster.

    ps – well Diane Kruger IS all that and more.

    Went from King Ralph to Freddy Krueger in a heartbeat.

    He needs to look himself in the mirror and give himself a motivational speech.

    Write it on your heart that every day is the best day in the year.

    Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.

    Everything you’ve ever wanted is on the other side of fear.

    Nothing is impossible, the word itself says ‘I’m possible.’

    That last one sounds like Ron Burgundy…No? (it was actually Audrey Hepburn)

  118. Andy Dufresne says:

    digger50: Just because you use a smiley face doesn’t mean your not being a dick.

    My dick has a tattoo of a smiley face. 🙂

    And JT wouldn’t call me a dick….he’d say “Sod Off Wanker!”

  119. powerploy says:

    I agree with jimmy v— get 2 players for same price as Hall if you have to trade assets, also spreads the risk and create better balance. As much as I like Hall he is likely past peak and expensive.

    I see a lot of impatience creeping in in some peoples comments. Chia was impatient, I like Hollands approach better.

  120. Johnny skid says:

    Andy Dufresne: My dick has a tatto of a smiley face.

    And even even JT wouldn’t call mea dick….he’d say “Sod Off Wanker!”

    to much information Andy!

  121. Andy Dufresne says:

    tileguy:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Lol, you’re killing it today!

    Thanks TG……and no….I have not been drinking…….yet

  122. Andy Dufresne says:

    Johnny skid: to much information Andy!

    Agreed JS. But the chicks dig it. (and NO…..I dont live on a chicken farm….)

    And now every time I post a 🙂 people will wonder…..hmmmm

  123. Oilman99 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Ken Holland wouldn’t trade Benson for Hall because he needs a left winger?

    I would trade Broberg OR Bouchard, not both.

    LT, I know you’re trying to guess Holland’s mind and you have put a lot of thought and hard work into this, but maybe you’re “smartest man in the room”-ing this a tad? (As in a Lowe/MacTavish/Howson line of thinking, not that you think you are the smartest man in the room!)

    You don’t think Holland would or should trade a +(just) prospect that’s 1-2yrs away in Bouchard, or a who the hell knows, could be revenge of Pulujarvi in Broberg (3-4 yrs away) or what’s starting to look like a late 1st rounder for one of the premier players in the league. Or Tyler Benson.

    Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM. The amount Hall would instantly improve this team offsets any improvement any of these players could ever bring.

    And just how do you find the cap room to make Hall fit.

  124. verdad2.0 says:

    HT Joe,

    Prospects are fool’s gold

    Present Value

    Season is slipping away

    Do something

  125. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    powerploy:
    I agree with jimmy v— get 2 players for same price as Hall if you have to trade assets, also spreads the risk and create better balance. As much as I like Hall he is likely past peak and expensive.

    I see a lot of impatience creeping in in some peoples comments. Chia was impatient, I like Hollands approach better.

    Most at the start of the season this year agreed this was not a playoff team. We may be slightly ahead of schedule (pleasant surprise) but I think Ken keeps with the plan and stays the course. No to Hall at the rumored asking price. And I agree with Andy … we should be drafting forward, forward, forward this year. Please no goalies and no more than a single D in the latter rounds.

  126. digger50 says:

    Andy Dufresne: My dick has a tattoo of a smiley face.

    And even even JT wouldn’t call me a dick….he’d say “Sod Off Wanker!”

    Dam. That’s an image I didn’t need.

  127. pts2pndr says:

    Jethro Tull: Edmonton isn’t good enough NOT to trade for better players. There’s no cavalry coming. We have some solid D prospects. No more, but it’s a leap to say any of them will become the impact players we need. Serviceable NHLers, yes, and Lord knows we need them.

    Have we reached the point where we are happy watching Connor and Drai doing they’re thing with occasional play-offs when the goalie is hot?

    Giving up a first round draft choice when cap strapped and gamble the entire McDavid window is a panic move and 99 out of 100 times you lose. You back door accused LT of smartest man in the room when all he applied is sound logic. You sir by accusing anyone who doesn’t agree with you as being stupid, short sighted, or lacking logic is the true markings of a smartest man in the room syndrome. The difficulty with you logic is your money and your job isn’t on the line. You don’t have chips in the game. What you propose is fine when playing with some else’s money. This would not be a smart move by a smart GM but a panic move by a GM whose job is on the line.

  128. Oilman99 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Well then you’re in a perfect position to write from a Canucks fan perspective

    Sorry but this is an Oilers site, Canuck fans should go to a Canuck’s blog for their info, Canuck is a bad word on this site, just like Flame.

  129. Bling says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I know you know the values 🙂

    Haha, I linked that because I didn’t know them. The post was really for my own edification.

    I think your list argues to my point. The bulk of the good names are still higher on the list. There is a decent amount of meh in the 20s.

    The point about having a signed player is a good one, and that one year deal idea is intriguing.

    I don’t give up any of our top three D prospects, period.

  130. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    verdad2.0:
    HT Joe,

    Prospects are fool’s gold

    Present Value

    Season is slipping away

    Do something

    Nice cut and paste but just a friendly heads up, looks like you accidently logged onto the Oiler’s blog instead of the Canuck’s blog.

  131. jp says:

    Oilpower:
    What about nurse for a signed hall and a 3rd line center?

    I wouldn’t like to see Nurse go but that’s interesting.

    The next contract dollar figure for both players is key to whether this could make sense.

  132. Andy Dufresne says:

    I am very impressed with Oscar Klefboms play this year AND how he has made big improvements on keeping the puck in the zone on the Power Play……..But Please Jesus Dad…send us another Christmas Miracle. We desperatley need an offenisve minded PP Point Man….so we can go from having the top powerplay in the NHL to having THE TOP POWERPLAY IN THE NHL.

    #EvanFromHeaven

  133. Andy Dufresne says:

    jp: I wouldn’t like to see Nurse go but that’s interesting.

    The next contract dollar figure for both players is key to whether this could make sense.

    I dont want to trade any of our best Dmen* and I want Hall to go the Montreal. But somehow this seems appealing.

    (As a side note not related to Hall, I would consider trading Jones, Samorukov, Lagesson, or Benning and of course Russell) Deal from the bottom of the deck.

  134. Andy Dufresne says:

    digger50: Dam. That’s an image I didn’t need.

    lol…..So no to Face Time then??………. 🙂

  135. Tbags Funhouse says:

    Peloton, JP and 2nd (conditional 1st or resign)
    for Hall ?

  136. Bling says:

    Andy Dufresne: I dont want to trade any of our best Dmen* and I want Hall to go the Montreal. But somehow this seems appealing.

    (As a side note not related to Hall,I would consider trading Jones, Samorukov, Lagesson, or Benning and of course Russell) Deal from the bottom of the deck.

    Interesting. I wouldn’t deal Lagesson or Samorukov.

    Both guys project to be studs at evens on both sides of the puck.

  137. Andy Dufresne says:

    SOOO Glad to see kassian and Nuge back in the lineup. 🙂

    I could not (respectfully) disagree more with LT on this one. James Neil is no substitute for Kassian…not even close imo.

    #NoJamesNealTwentyGameTryout

  138. Andy Dufresne says:

    Bling: Interesting. I wouldn’t deal Lagesson or Samorukov.

    Both guys project to be studs at evens on both sides of the puck.

    I hope other GMs see it like you do. In fact i’ve read that there are some that do. (specifically that some have expressed interest in Samorukov)

    I like both players.

    But when push comes to shove….I would like to keep Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Broberg, Bouchard…and if possible….Samorukov and Lagesson……

    If we can get a top six winger in free agency then great….keep Samorukov and Lagesson too.

    So I guess Im saying you’re right. OK Ill stop digging now.

  139. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide:
    Smith starts, Nuge and Kassian back.

    yay….Yay!…YAY!!!

  140. Oilpower says:

    jp: I wouldn’t like to see Nurse go but that’s interesting.

    The next contract dollar figure for both players is key to whether this could make sense.

    It would balance the forward group but leave a hole on defence, then the question becomes how close are jones and lagesson.

  141. Andy Dufresne says:

    Going back to work now……and by work I mean making lunch……check back in later.

    Who wins the Hart? McDavid or Draisaitl and why?

  142. who says:

    Bling: Interesting. I wouldn’t deal Lagesson or Samorukov.

    Both guys project to be studs at evens on both sides of the puck.

    Lagesson projects to be a stud?
    That seems a little optimistic.

  143. jp says:

    Andy Dufresne: I dont want to trade any of our best Dmen* and I want Hall to go the Montreal. But somehow this seems appealing.

    (As a side note not related to Hall,I would consider trading Jones, Samorukov, Lagesson, or Benning and of course Russell) Deal from the bottom of the deck.

    I certainly don’t want to trade any of our better D either. And dealing from the bottom of the deck is obviously preferable. But the bottom of the deck isn’t going to get you a top end player in return. I guess it comes down to whether one thinks the better way forward is to add an elite forward or to make smaller moves to improve the bottom 6.

  144. Reja says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Most at the start of the season this year agreed this was not a playoff team. We may be slightly ahead of schedule (pleasant surprise) but I think Ken keeps with the plan and stays the course. No to Hall at the rumored asking price. And I agree with Andy … we should be drafting forward, forward, forward this year. Please no goalies and no more than a single D in the latter rounds.

    Not a playoff team tell that to Leon Connor Tippett Holland Nurse Kelbom Neal Nuge Kosh Smith Chase Benning Larsson Russell Bear etc

  145. drago says:

    Off topic serious question: would you smart guys trade previously-struggling, high draft pick Puljujarvi for currently-struggling, high draft pick Casey Middelstadt? Would the Oilers? Sabres?

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    oilersjo:
    why would you give upexpansion draft exemptions.Those players are your ongoing foundation

    This is a point that is not talked about enough.

    Even taking away the expansion draft ramifications, it doesn’t make sense (in my opinion) to pay the price to acquire Hall, either as a rental or with an agreed upon contract (unless he is willing to sign for $8M or less for 5 years or less).

    Factor in the higher end assets going away being expansion draft exempt (or at least one of them), it makes even less sense.

    Yes, there is a solid chance that this coming year’s first round draft pick and materially help the team during the player’s ELC. Of course we don’t know that for sure, however, with the ability of high end young forwards to impact the game early……

  147. Reja says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Going back to work now……and by work I mean making lunch……check back in later.

    Who wins the Hart? McDavid orDraisaitl and why?

    First time in history co-winners.

  148. jp says:

    who: Lagesson projects to be a stud?
    That seems a little optimistic.

    I was thinking similar. At the same time I wouldn’t think he has a lot of trade value at the moment so it’s almost pointless to trade him IMO. He’s 23 (24 in a couple of months), hasn’t played an NHL game yet, isn’t flashy, doesn’t have draft pedigree. That wouldn’t fetch much in return. He might well be a player, but he is not projecting to be a stud.

  149. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne: My dick has a tattoo of a smiley face.

    And JT wouldn’t call me a dick….he’d say “Sod Off Wanker!”

    Gotta admit. I chuckled at those posts pretty good. Draft BPA – only if it’s a forward.

  150. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Friedman and LeBrun have said NJD will retain if required.

    Gagner is enough going the other way to make the $ work if NJD retain half.

    I try to get them to take Chiasson.

    I think that could work but I still believe as do you, that the suggested cost to acquire Hall as a rental is too high. I am also of the belief that the team should not entertain contracts with no move no trade clauses for UFA players. I am of the belief that the cost and term required to sign Hall will be prohibitive.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    No surprise by Cave assigned to the Bake and Nuge officially activated off IR.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    Second line expected to be Khaira/Nuge/Neal.

    I wonder what they do with Gagner – he’s played well, in my opinion, the last little bit.

    He is what he is but he hasn’t leaked scoring chances and has contributed offensively.

    With that said, I don’t really like him in the bottom 6 and would be fine if they keep him for top 6 injury replacement use.

  153. Side says:

    verdad2.0:
    HT Joe,

    Prospects are fool’s gold

    Present Value

    Season is slipping away

    Do something

    Prospects are fool’s gold

    Present Value

    Season is slipping away

    Do something NOW if you really can play BOS

    Hold playoff spot forever

    If you don’t be YIOW!!!!

    Drop me with em will you

    I’m shit

    Press P on me (high energy)

    PRESS P on me.

    Do not draft me

    I’m shit

    Press P on me

    Don’t draft me

    I’m trash

    I’m trash

    This Verdad post brought to you by a neural network.

  154. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Reja: Not a playoff team tell that to Leon Connor Tippett Holland Nurse Kelbom Neal Nuge Kosh Smith Chase Benning Larsson Russell Bear etc

    Reading for comprehension. It’s a thing.

  155. Pescador says:

    Andy Dufresne: My dick has a tattoo of a smiley face.

    And JT wouldn’t call me a dick….he’d say “Sod Off Wanker!”

    If we could just get a picture that tattoo holding up a towel…
    = Balance photo

  156. jp says:

    Oilpower: It would balance the forward group but leave a hole on defence, then the question becomes how close are jones and lagesson.

    Yeah it would obviously open another roster hole (though one that can more projectably be filled from within).

    IMO adding Hall to the forward group and subtracting Nurse from the D (with Russell, Jones, Lagesson filling in) would be a net positive right now. Moving forward though it’s tougher to be sure.

    It’s interesting that many here would be happy to move Nurse for Ehlers but maybe less so for Hall (just guessing on the latter).

    It comes back to next contracts for me. If Nurse is going to need $7M to re-sign, AND Hall were willing to sign for $9M X 5 then I think the move makes sense. Those are big ifs though, and if either number moves in the other direction it makes less and less sense.

    You also mentioned Nurse for Hall and a 3C. I don’t know if that’s realistic, but if the deal were Nurse (and a pick?) for Hall and Zacha, well that addresses another roster hole.

    It sure will be interesting to see where Hall ultimately moves and for what.

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull: Edmonton isn’t good enough NOT to trade for better players. There’s no cavalry coming. We have some solid D prospects. No more, but it’s a leap to say any of them will become the impact players we need. Serviceable NHLers, yes, and Lord knows we need them.

    Have we reached the point where we are happy watching Connor and Drai doing they’re thing with occasional play-offs when the goalie is hot?

    Of course, trading for better players should always be contemplated and Taylor Hall is indeed a “better player”, however, this can’t be discussed without cap implication context and if the player would be “worth” the cap hit.

    Given recent performance (and I mean years of performance), Taylor Hall may very well not be the cavalry either – that is the problem, in my opinion. He very well may be amazing back here and worth every penny of a big extension, however, at the same time, its just as reasonable to project that he won’t be worth anywhere near what he’s likely to sign for (based off history).

    Its a very very risky re-sign and that’s not taking in to account acquisition cost.

    I don’t imagine anyone, even you, are suggesting that the organization’s top prospects and a new 1st rounder be traded for a rental – that can’t be something a knowledgeable Oiler fan would be in favor of – hence why we talk about re-sign risk.

    As far as it being a “huge leap” for to project any of the prospects as impact players, I can’t agree on a guy like Bouchard. I think its very reasonable to project that he will be a legit top 4 right-shot D in the NHL that provides plus offence. There is potential for 1st pairing and elite offence but I can’t reasoanbly project that. I can reasonably project impact player though – within a few years.

    Broberg can also reasonably project as an impact player but that is no sure thing (mainly because of simply not seeing him enough) and years away.

  158. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: Speaking of Colorado, remember when we (everyone here, not you and I) were debating Koskinen vs Francouz?

    Francouz has a lightly used 11gp, .931 this season. $950 k.

    Nice trade for Burakovsky too. 12 goals. 22 points.

    Is Sakic the new Yzerman?

    I’m sure Sakic has learned some things as a GM in the past few years.

    Their use of player analytics has improved exponentially since they hired Chris MacFarland to be Assistant General Manager.

    Here’s a piece on it: https://www.milehighhockey.com/2015/10/23/9603592/the-avs-are-becoming-more-analytics-driven-before-our-eyes

    They also hired Dawson Sprigings (@DTMaboutheart) who was one of the smartest analytics guys for Hockey Graphs after he finished his economics degrees.

    They are a very sharp org now.

    EDM could use a MacFarland and Sprinings.

  159. Numenius says:

    Interesting that Avs fans aren’t necessarily on board with acquiring Taylor Hall, when it would seem like the logical choice. Here’s a good Avs blog editorial arguing against it:

    https://milehighsticking.com/2019/12/03/colorado-avalanche-shouldnt-trade-taylor-hall/

    I would think some of the reasons against would doubly hold for the Oilers, esp. lack of cap space, acquisition cost.

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    JohnChambers:
    Anybody buying a Peloton for Christmas for a loved one, or are you afraid of being mocked online by Ryan Reynolds?

    I an actually thinking of this for the wife.

  161. Pescador says:

    Reja: Remember when he heard from his sources on the bat cave phone that JP plus we’re getting traded for a couple of AHL shrubs in the Canuckle organization.

    Bat cave?
    Here and I thought it was a 1976 tricked out VW camper van
    With spectacular wifi
    Down by the river

  162. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Where did I read that Hall still isn’t highly regarded by GMs?

    Shero has to do what he can and is trying to get a nice haul for Hall. But he will experience what Oiler GMs have. Hall still caries the same taint it seems. Shero likely won’t get the King’s ransom he’s obligated to try for.

    So what if Hall comes at a reasonable price? JP Jones and a 2nd? Maybe two seconds if he extends? I would go for the 2021 first, Shero may not.

    I agree with Jethro that being too passive is as bad as stupid/too aggressive. I mentioned last thread that the teams at the top also traded to where they are – we could say Bruins, Blues, Avs have.

    But to move a first I would want a younger high end player. Not a guy Hall’s age that could be free next summer. Lesser assets for sure.

    That was Burnside in The Athletic.

    Here are the relevant bits:

    “I just don’t think he thinks the game that well for a top-end player,” one longtime NHL scout and executive said. “I really don’t.”

    ” “I’ve never had him in the superstar category,” added another longtime NHL executive and former player. “There’s just something missing for him. Does he put you over top? I don’t know.”

    “Everywhere he’s gone, and I know it’s only been two teams, but his teams were no good,” one executive said. “I don’t like him as a core piece, I like him as a complementary piece.”

    So there are the negative opinions that Burnside has in his piece.

    The next section had this:

    “Good luck,” said one highly successful NHL executive. Because there are so few elite players who hit the open market, the chances are good you’ll end up overpaying for another player. “But you’re not going to get a Taylor Hall or a John Tavares,” the executive said.

    So another guy had him in the Tavares category. Interesting to note that he mentioned this executive was “highly successful”

    I have no doubt that some don’t value him as high as others.

    In a league where Barzal can drop to 15th because he’s not 6’0″ and then EDM trades out of the spot and had Eriksson-Ek rated higher than Barzal I have absolutely no doubt some decision makers wouldn’t like Hall.

  163. Andy Dufresne says:

    drago:
    Off topic serious question: would you smart guys trade previously-struggling, high draft pick Puljujarvi for currently-struggling, high draft pick Casey Middelstadt? Would the Oilers? Sabres?

    Im sure the smart guys will chime in, but Is it ok if I answer too.

    I would do it.

    Both Players were top 10 draft picks (3 and 8).
    Mittelstadt is 7 months younger. Plays on shitty team, He scores as well or better than Jesse at the NHL level.

    AND, he hasnt quit on his team(mates).

    Given the entire JP story, I would rather have Mittlestadt.

    And if Casey strikes out…….oh well…… 🙂

    Who knows…he could become the next Rick Mittleton 🙂

    Mittlestadt is 10.2(c) …whatever that means…

    What is a 10.2(c) player?
    A player becomes a free agent when their contract expires on July 1 after the last League Year of their contract. A player who does not meet the UFA requirements or the Group 2 RFA requirements displayed in the table above, and has been issued a qualifying offer, is designated a 10.2(c) player. The player is only eligible to negotiate and sign a contract with the club that holds their signing rights. They are ineligible to negotiate a contract (offer sheet) with any other club. They are also ineligible for arbitration. If the player does not receive a qualifying offer by June 25th at 5:00pm ET, they immediately become a UFA.

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    slopitch: Agreed re Bryam and extension.

    Id forgot about Timmins. Pronman had him #8 on his team rankings this fall but Timmins missed a year due to injury. Seems to be coming on this year though. Hed be comparable to Samorukov in value no?

    Probably close.

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: Pretty sure Timmins shoots right.

    Of course.

    I blame my phone.

  166. Andy Dufresne says:

    JimmyV1965: Gotta admit. I chuckled at those posts pretty good. Draft BPA – only if it’s a forward.

    Thanks Jimmy. I enjoy your posts too.

    #Family

  167. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t want to pay someone $10 mill to be the netfront presence guy and that’s not a role Hall is best suited for. He’s not replacing Klef or any dman. That leaves Nuge. He might be marginally better, but I don’t think it improves the PP much. The team is better off investing $10 mill in two players.

    EDM needs someone to drive line 2 because Nuge can’t do it alone. He’s never been good without Hall or the Eberle/Pouliot combo except for one brieft shining moment Eberle/Lucic did it for a month and then shit the bed in the playoffs.

    If you can get 2 players who drive 5v5 play for $5MM each, then I’m all for it.

    If you can somehow finagle a trade for Ehlers our similar who are on great contracts (Ehlers makes $6MM) then I’m all on board and would happily spend the other $4MM on a 3C.

    I just don’t think you can find those guys in FA though, not for $5MM so you have to trade and guys like that on good contracts will cost much more what Hall will (as a rental, if he’s extended then Hall’s more expensive)

    Also,

    It doesn’t matter what the guy in the bumper spot makes. Why would it?

  168. Andy Dufresne says:

    Side: Prospects are fool’s gold

    Present Value

    Season is slipping away

    Do something NOW if you really can play BOS

    Hold playoff spot forever

    If you don’t be YIOW!!!!

    Drop me with em will you

    I’m shit

    Press P on me (high energy)

    PRESS P on me.

    Do not draft me

    I’m shit

    Press P on me

    Don’t draft me

    I’m trash

    I’m trash

    This Verdad post brought to you by a neural network.

    HAAA! Ha………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..still smiling

  169. Bling says:

    who: Lagesson projects to be a stud?
    That seems a little optimistic.

    Almost all of Willie’s offense, particularly last season, came at evens.

    As per OP’s reports, he could be a Larsson level player with better passing. Those kinds of guys are effective and tend to stay cheap.

  170. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pescador: If we could just get a picture that tattoo holding up a towel…
    = Balance photo

    HAAAAaaaa…. 🙂 .. A CBC towel…the kind they give thier intermission guests. 🙂

    #DoubleViagra

    #StandUpGuy

  171. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: EDM could use a MacFarland and Sprinings.

    Do you think any of the Tier One Fans speak up about this in the Season Ticket Holder fan feedback meetings???

  172. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: I an actually thinking of this for the wife.

    Ryan Reynolds?? What does he charge?

    You ae a good husband. Talk about a workout.

    Ahh…oh wait…..yeah…forget it.

    #WomenLoveGymGear

    and they also LOVE the phrase “the wife”…. 🙂

    But hey. What happens in Vegreville stays in Vegreville 🙂

  173. Munny says:

    Niners.

    Dear Gord.

  174. Pescador says:

    Andy Dufresne: Ryan Reynolds??What does he charge?

    You ae a good husband.

    Whatever he charges, I can beat it by at least 40%

  175. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: EDM needs someone to drive line 2 because Nuge can’t do it alone.He’s never been good without Hall or the Eberle/Pouliot combo except for one brieft shining moment Eberle/Lucic did it for a month and then shit the bed in the playoffs.

    If you can get 2 players who drive 5v5 play for $5MM each, then I’m all for it.

    If you can somehow finagle a trade for Ehlers our similar who are on great contracts (Ehlers makes $6MM) then I’m all on board and would happily spend the other $4MM on a 3C.

    I just don’t think you can find those guys in FA though, not for $5MM so you have to trade and guys like that on good contracts will cost much more what Hall will (as a rental, if he’s extended then Hall’s more expensive)

    Also,

    It doesn’t matter what the guy in the bumper spot makes.Why would it?

    This is a gamble. It may even be a good gamble. The kind you look for where the bookmakers have missed something in their analysis. A value bet.

    From that perspective it has merit. Roll the dice and push all in over the next 3 years. (mixing my metaphors..sort of) Roll the Dice on Hall and push all in everywhere else.

    Personally I beleive that McDavid and Draisaitl are our “value proposition”. They give us a competetive edge all other things being equal. BUT, how we go about making “all other things equal” is a kind of bet in itself.

    Im talking about taking what I perceive to be the safer bet. I cant beleive im that old.

    If Oilers Management follow your lead, I’d jump on board. it would make for an exciting three years.

    It might be our best chance at winning a cup in the McDavid era.

    The timing is what appeals to me. Our Dymamic Duo is just entering thier prime. Our Defense is just rounding into shape.

    AH FUCK IT……pass me those dice!!!!!

  176. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its nice that, with Nuge activated and Cave down, the Oilers have almost a million dollars in cap space (couple hundred grand less) – until the next injury.

  177. Oilin4 says:

    I love how lowetide made a compelling argument that there’s probably no offer we’d ever make to land Hall so it’s pointless to talk about. Now it’s all we want to talk about.

  178. Pescador says:

    Andy Dufresne: HAAAAaaaa…. .. A CBC towel…the kind they give thier intermission guests.

    #DoubleViagra

    #StandUpGuy

    I would definitely describe myself as a stand up guy

  179. Pouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM.

    Just checking in and wut????

  180. Reja says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Reading for comprehension. It’s a thing.

    Don’t pout. There’s still room on the bandwagon but tickets are going fast young fellow.

  181. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pescador: Whatever he charges, I can beat it by at least 40%

    HAAAAAAhaaa……………aaaaaaaaaaaaa.f#ck…….. 🙂

    #BlackFridayMadness

  182. Pescador says:

    Andy Dufresne:

    #WomenLoveGymGear

    and they also LOVE the phrase “the wife”….

    But hey. What happens in Vegreville stays in Vegreville

    Right up the with “the ol lady” / ball & chain.
    Or my dad’s personal favorite:
    “the old Battle Axe”

  183. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pescador: I would definitely describe myself as a stand up guy

    #Definitely

    #StandUpGuy

    #WiseGuy

    That last one is term of honor as well 🙂

  184. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pescador: Right up the with “the ol lady” & ball & chain.
    Or my dad’s personal favorite:
    “the old Battle Axe”

    HAAAAaaaaaaa…………………..oh god……………………………..still smiling……….

    #TheTruerTheFunnier

    #BackWhenMysogynyWasFun

  185. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63:


    I just don’t want Hall back on the Oilers.

    I feel the book is basically written on the player

    Above average offensive player

    Yes and elite driver of play. Much better passer than goal scorer but his main value lies in getting the puck from the dzone to the ozone at elite rates.


    Weak defensive player

    This is incorrect. He team mates do better in shots and goals against with him than without him.


    Injury prone

    He’s missed time for a head injury when Potter stepped on him and for 2 knee injuries. His knee is a concern.


    Can’t elevate others around him

    Wildly incorrect. Since you read this board I assume you’re just trolling as you must have read this stuff a hundred times.

    In case you’ve just forgotten:

    3 most common line mates in EDM (from 11/12-15/16)
    GF% with and without Hall
    RNH 53% with 44% without
    Eberle 55% with 47% without
    Schultz 51% with 38% without

    NJD (16/17 – 20/20)
    Palmer 61% with 55% without
    Higher 58% with 40% without
    Severson 54% with 38% without

    Yeah, it’s incredible how wrong your statement is.


    Nearer the end of his career

    Players who score like Hall usually last until ~35, with the results taking a slight dip at 31 and then more at 34.

    Barring injury he probably has 4 “Hall-like” seasons left and maybe two “Hall-lite” and that needs to be considered.

    I think a 5 year contract is as long as I would go.

  186. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, trading for better players should always be contemplated and Taylor Hall is indeed a “better player”, however, this can’t be discussed without cap implication context and if the player would be “worth” the cap hit.

    Given recent performance (and I mean years of performance), Taylor Hall may very well not be the cavalry either – that is the problem, in my opinion. He very well may be amazing back here and worth every penny of a big extension, however, at the same time, its just as reasonable to project that he won’t be worth anywhere near what he’s likely to sign for (based off history).

    Its a very very risky re-sign and that’s not taking in to account acquisition cost.

    I don’t imagine anyone, even you, are suggesting that the organization’s top prospects and a new 1st rounder be traded for a rental – that can’t be something a knowledgeable Oiler fan would be in favor of – hence why we talk about re-sign risk.

    As far as it being a “huge leap” for to project any of the prospects as impact players, I can’t agree on a guy like Bouchard. I think its very reasonable to project that he will be a legit top 4 right-shot D in the NHL that provides plus offence. There is potential for 1st pairing and elite offence but I can’t reasoanbly project that.I can reasonably project impact player though – within a few years.

    Broberg can also reasonably project as an impact player but that is no sure thing (mainly because of simply not seeing him enough) and years away.

    OP, you are being a bit repetitive on the Hall perspective. Gotcha.
    I’m more curious if you take Hall out and target other names. How will this team get better? Prospects are potential, but they are also currency. Are you on board with with improvements this year?
    Isn’t a “decent” player going to run 5-6M?

  187. Lowetide says:

    Oilin4:
    I love how lowetide made a compelling argument that there’s probably no offer we’d ever make to land Hall so it’s pointless to talk about. Now it’s all we want to talk about.

    The ONE deal I can see Holland offering is JP plus a pick or prospect for Hall, and IF HE RE-SIGNS with Edmonton the Oilers send a lottery protected first round pick (2020 or 2021) to NJD. I can see that deal, don’t know if it’s enough.

  188. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pouzar: Just checking in and wut????

    Is that Wut?!?!?!?!?…..like the Jiff Peanut Butter Commercail…..WUT?!?! slams hand on the counter!

    #WutThe!

  189. digger50 says:

    Andy Dufresne: lol…..So no to Face Time then??……….

    No, hell no. “My eyes…my eyes!”

    Wait

    I wonder what it looks like. Where is it positioned? Like right up front saying hello? Or just shows up when happy?

  190. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: The ONE deal I can see Holland offering is JP plus a pick or prospect for Hall, and IF HE RE-SIGNS with Edmonton the Oilers send a lottery protected first round pick (2020 or 2021) to NJD. I can see that deal, don’t know if it’s enough.

    I wonder if NJ gives any consideration to what Hall wants?

    Also, can NJ give other teams permission to talk or negociate with Hall on a possible new contract? Is that allowed in season? Or can only NJ do that?

  191. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I wonder if WPG picking up Shore off waivers portends them trading a C for a D?

  192. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    The Avs have 5 roster players that they drafted, McKinnon Landeskog Rantanen Makar Jost.

    Draft the high end skill, trade and sign to build the team faster?

    Joe is a sneaky smart devil.

    That’s really good info.

    Thanks.

  193. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Reja: Don’t pout. There’s still room on the bandwagon but tickets are going fast young fellow.

    Thanks for the compliment but I think we are of a similar age … and both #StandUpGuys.

  194. mustang says:

    Put it this way, if the price is the 1st, Benson and Broberg and you don’t pull the trigger, then you shouldn’t be a GM. The amount Hall would instantly improve this team offsets any improvement any of these players could ever bring.

    There’s a realistic chance Broberg could end up being a #1 dman. Of course, this is a chance but I wouldn’t give up on that for a rental of a 28yr Taylor Hall for who knows how many years, if any.

  195. Andy Dufresne says:

    digger50: No, hell no. “My eyes…my eyes!”

    Wait

    I wonder what it looks like. Where is it positioned? Like right up front saying hello? Or just shows up when happy?

    lol…”Wait”….haha…….(great example of how one word can have comedic impact)

    To answer your question…

    Its head on…..so to speak,,…but Im old so its frowning most of the day……but a beautiful young woman passes by and ….awwww..who am I kidding…..any woman passes by….aww…who am I kidding….a TV commercial shows a woman……..aw…who am I kidding…..the wind blows…….and its all Mr Happy Face…… all “Have a Nice Day” Poster Guy……

    Im thinkng of “adding hands” on the sides like the surprise/happy/excited Emoji.

  196. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Reja: Is that the new Crock Pot everyone is raving about.

    It cooks a goddamn 3lb roast and potatoes in an hour!

    It’s like magic.

  197. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Pescador,

    I’m lucky in that the missus and I share a sardonic wit, and she enjoys terms of endearment like, well… the missus.

    Also in rotation:

    “Ma kettle”

  198. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    tcho: I have this feeling that Marc-Antoine Poulliot kid’s going to be a player.

    Thanks for the last few years of trade analysis, too.

    It’s clear to me that you do NOT include top prospects/picks for an unsigned Hall.

    I’d also lean against top prospects/picks for a signed Hall, but it’s a tougher decision. I just feel like it hamstrings us too much with the cap going forward. The Oilers would just have such a huge % of salary invested in so few forwards… and the rest are replacement level (Sheahan, Archibald, Granlund, etc. etc.)? I think the Oilers need to keep a pipeline of prospects coming up for the next several years to complement our (excellent but small) core on the cheap, and hopefully be able to expand that core with the cap room to sign those that progress into it.

    Hall sure is tempting though. Nuge would actually have a winger to play with, and that might entice him to stay.

    For a signed Hall (even 1 year extension) the most I’m willing to do is the the 2020 1st if it’s Conference Final protected, JP, and one of the prospect LHD. (Samarukov, Broberg). If they’re willing to take Jones or Laggesson if I don’t Conference Final protect the pick (but still “out of playoffs” protect) then that’s fine.

  199. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It cooks a goddamn 3lb roast and potatoes in an hour!

    It’s like magic.

    A convection microwave does a 3 lb chicken, browned perfectly crispy skin and juicy in less than 25 minutes.

    Im wondering though if the new pressure cooker does a better job of tenderizing while locking the jucies in?

    Hard to beleive though…cause the convection microwave ( I probaly shouldn’t even call it microwave cause I think its a dual purpose microwave doubling as a regular convection oven) does one hell of a job of roasting meats. Chicken, Wings, Beef and Pork Roasts etc.

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