Sail on, Sailor

It’s a small item, no one will notice. At this point in January, I write the first trade deadline piece. If the Oilers are sellers, the title is “Sale on Sail on, Sailer” and if the team is a buyer, or could be a buyer, we see the title above. It’s way more fun this way.


The Athletic
 Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide:  Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
  • New Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • New Jonathan Willis: Oilers make a smart two-year bet on Caleb Jones, who has done nothing but improve
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 3 things from the latest Oilers win: A lacrosse goal, Mike Smith’s resurgence and Connor McDavid’s new linemate
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A defiant Zack Kassian issues his latest salvo against Matthew Tkachuk: ‘He messed with the wrong guy’
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
  • Lowetide:  Oilers prospect pipeline could deliver below-average group in 2020-21
  • Jonathan Willis: Several factors led to Oilers’ Zack Kassian’s inevitable hearing with NHL Player Safety
  • Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian calls Matthew Tkachuk a ‘p****,’ says he’d go after him again despite Oilers’ loss
  • Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Mike Smith stars in Oilers victory, but others’ struggles could prompt changes
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
  • LowetideKen Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
  • Minnia Feng: Zamboni Ursula: What if Oilers fans could change something in the team’s past?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: ‘That’s the nicest goal I’ve ever seen’: Connor McDavid’s teammates amazed by his latest effort
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers notebook: James Neal’s resurgence, Matt Benning’s injury and the Tyler Benson recall temptation
  • Lowetide: Oilers farmhands are pushing hard for NHL jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland, the Oilers amateur procurement department and the 2020 draft
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019

TRADE DEADLINES PAST

On March 17, 1993 the Oilers traded L Esa Tikkanen to the New York Rangers for C Doug Weight. Tikkanen was one of my favorites—still is—and my initial reaction to this deal was heartbreak. The Boys on the Bus expired in either September or October 1991, two massive and devastating trades put it all to rest. By the time they got to dealing Tikkanen, it was more museum than arena, but legends walked among us. The Tikkanen trade was the death rattle on the day it was made, but in fact brought new life to a weathered franchise. This was a brilliant trade by Sather, maybe the best deadline deal he ever made.

CHIARELLI’S DEADLINE DEALS

  • February 2016—traded Justin Schultz to Pittsburgh for a pick (Filip Berglund); traded Teddy Purcell for a pick (Matt Cairns); traded Anders Nilsson for a pick (Graham McPhee); traded Martin Gernat and a pick (Jack Kopacka) for Patrick Maroon.
  • February 2017—traded Brandon Davidson for David Desharnais; traded Taylor Beck for Justin Fontaine.
  • February 2018—traded Brandon Davidson for a pick (2019 3rd used on goalie Ilya Konovalov); traded Mark Letestu for Pontus Aberg; traded Patrick Maroon for JD Dudek and 2019 pick (cashed later for Cooper Marody, pick was used on Alexander Campbell).

Desharnais earned a special place in Oilers history with the famous overtime goal against the San Jose Sharks, while Patrick Maroon filled an extreme need for the organization.

KEITH GRETZKY’S DEADLINE DEALS

  • February 2019—traded goalie Cam Talbot to the Philadephia Flyers for goalie Anthony Stolarz.
  • February 2019—traded Ryan Spooner to the Vancouver Canucks for Sam Gagner.

Gretzky didn’t have much to trade and wasn’t dealing from a position of strength, so I’m not sure what we can say beyond people were damned owly with Spooner so that trade probably needed to be made.

KEN HOLLAND’S NEEDS LIST

Based on recent reports, the Oilers are interested in Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Pierre Lebrun) should he come available. There’s also a report (from Darren Dreger) that the Oilers “want a top-six forward. He says there is speculation around “Kapanen, Johnsson and Kerfoot.”

Leafs need a RH defenseman to my eye, and that would be Adam Larsson. I don’t think the Oilers can afford to deal Larsson, but that’s some nice talent being discussed out of Toronto.

KEN HOLLAND’S DEADLINE ASSETS

One doubts the Oilers are going to trade the first-round pick. If it isn’t going in a Taylor Hall deal I don’t think it’s going. That leaves the following: Oilers second round pick, Oilers fourth round pick, Jujhar Khaira, Matt Benning, William Lagesson, Joel Persson.

Now, if he’s trading for a player with term, things change. I would guess that the three items that are completely off the table are Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg and the 2020 first.

After that, we’re looking at Tyler Benson, Raphael Lavoie, Dmitri Samorukov, Caleb Jones, Kailer Yamamoto. Would Holland trade one of these names and the 2020 second-round pick for a proven player who is also under contract? What would Dmitri Samorukov and the 2020 second get you?

TARGETS

Aside from Pageau and the Toronto Three, is there anyone who represents a quality fit? Well, if the Coyotes fall out of the race then Taylor Hall would be a great addition, but that’s a distant bell.

J-G Pageau has 19 goals, Mike Hoffman 18, Tyler Toffoli 12, Ryan Strome (RFA) 12, Tyler Ennis 11, Robby Fabbri (RFA) 11, Kasperi Kapanen 10, Warren Foegele (RFA) 10, Craig Smith 10, Lucas Wallmark (RFA) 10, Jesper Fast 8, Alex Kerfoot 7, Andreas Johansson 6, Andreas Athanasiou (RFA) 5.

Would you trade Dmitri Samorukov and the 2020 second for any of these men? Would the teams who employ these men find that package acceptable?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’s Friday! We survived one week in the Arctic!! We celebrate at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will pop in at 10:20 to discuss Kassian-Tkachuk, the Vegas firing and Astros scandal. Matthew Iwanyk will pop in at 11 to preview a massive NFL weekend and talk Oilers at the deadline. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. We’re live in 90 minutes!

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287 Responses to "Sail on, Sailor"

  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Central
    STL 20
    COL 11
    DAL 11

    Pacific
    VAN 8
    CGY 8
    EDM 7

    Wildcard
    WPG 7
    ARI 7

    Out of playoffs
    VGP 6
    NSH 3
    CHI 2
    MIN 1
    SJS -3
    ANA -6
    LAK -8

    I am a little pleased that the 3 Pacific teams in the Pacific playoff spots are VAN, CGY and EDM. Hockey is more fun when rivalry games mean something.

    VAN has tie break on CGY due to 1 less game played
    EDM has tie break on ARI due to 2 less games played

    -Fucking TOR can’t even beat Rittich twice in regulation. Assholes.

    -NSH losing at home to ANA is bad. Like bad bad.

    Relevant games today:

    TBY (-135) at WPG (+115) – I will continue to set money on fire by fading Hellebuyck like its my job.

    • Darth Tu says:

      Tampa Bay are finally going to get it done against the Jets. They’re firing on all cylinders now – how long till they pass Boston?

      • Woodguy v2.0 says:

        Not sure if they pass BOS until late March/early April if they do it at all.

        BOS is winning at a .694 pts % clip and TBY would have to not just match that, but beat it by 7 wins by the end of the season.

        Not impossible, but very tough unless BOS tanks. Rask just went down but Halak is good.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      “-NSH losing at home to ANA is bad. Like bad bad.”

      Not bad for us though 🙂

      Interesting to look in hindsight at Poile choosing Johanson over RNH in the Seth jones Deal. I thought he was correct in real time…….but looking at in now…Im not so sure. RNH is younger and scores at about the same rate….on a worse team

      • flyfish1168 says:

        RNH rarely gifted with good wingers. But when he is at wing he is gifted a great center. Unfortunately he plays center more often then wing and his stats reflects this

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Metropolitan
    WSH 21
    PIT 16
    NYI 14

    Atlantic
    BOS 19
    TBY 13
    FLA 9

    Wildcard
    CAR 9
    TOR 9

    Out of playoffs
    CBJ 8
    PHI 8
    NYR 4
    BUF 3
    MTL 0
    NJD -6
    OTT -7
    DET -20

    -FLA has tiebreak over TOR due to 2 less games played.

    -CAR losing Hamilton really hurts them.
    -CBJ just keeps on trucking. Torts for Jack Adams.

    Relevant Wildcard games today:

    ANA (+200) at CAR (-240) – both teams played last night in different cities. ANA played in NSH, CAR in CBJ. Despite losing Hamilton CAR should be a slam dunk here.

  3. Lowetide says:

    This ⬇️

    Woodguy v2.0:

    -Fucking TOR can’t even beat Rittich twice in regulation.Assholes.

  4. JJS says:

    LT – do you think Puljujarvi has more or less value than Samorukov? Is Pulj a better asset to move?

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    Andy ‘Appytoseeyou is the play, I think. History with GM, could be had for less than market value.

    I won’t posit price, as I always get killed here, (tough crowd, I tells ya) even though I’ve got a few of the prices right. (Toot, toot!)

    Cue “we want an impact player at 4th line prices” posts.

    • Darth Tu says:

      Agreed – he’s definitely in the buy low category. I haven’t looked in a while, but have his numbers starting correcting even a little yet?

      I was keen on Pageau for a long time, but the more we see the numbers, the more my view has changed. He’d be buying high and could easily immediately drop back to his regular career averages.

    • godot10 says:

      He has to be qualified at over $3 million to retain his rights or he becomes a UFA. Trading anything of value for him is a very risky proposition.

  6. Lowetide says:

    JJS:
    LT – do you think Puljujarvi has more or less value than Samorukov?Is Pulj a better asset to move?

    I’m not sure. Puljujarvi will have terrific value to the GM who thinks he can save him, I just don’t know if that GM is currently employed.

  7. Darth Tu says:

    If Kovalchuk keeps scoring for Montreal, would he be worth enquiring about? He’s obviously older and it’s not a long term solution, but would add another scorer for one of the top two lines.

    I’m guessing we already have our own version in James Neal so probably a non starter. I’m just trying to think outside the box a little with someone that might make a difference in the top 6, but not cost the world.

    Kapanen would be a good fit and the fact he’s not UFA this year adds to his value, in an ideal world I would give up Larsson for him, but if we’re buying to try and push for the playoffs I feel that cutting Adam loose creates too large a problem on the back end. If this was next year and we knew that Bouchard was definitely capable of playing top 4 mins in the NHL (which we don’t) I’d probably say yes, let’s do the trade.

    Kerfoot is interesting as well, reasonable contract that’s tied up for another 3 years, could be a good fit at 3rd line centre. Again, I don’t give up Larsson for him.

    The problem with Benning as an asset is the worrying concussions. His value has to have dipped quite a bit due to this. I hope he comes back and shows well for the rest of the year, I like him as a 3rd pairing D. Russell/Benning, or Jones/Benning would be fine with me.

    I think we look to trade for a winger with someone that would be willing to take Russell, and that probably rules out Toronto. Or Gagner and a pick/prospect.

  8. Andy Dufresne says:

    “there is speculation around “Kapanen, Johnsson and Kerfoot….Leafs need a RH defenseman to my eye, and that would be Adam Larsson.”

    I like Larsson alot. Especially in the playoffs. But for the sake potentially contending as early as next year. I’d move Larsson + for any two of the aforementioned Leafs..

  9. dessert1111 says:

    I’d consider Samorukov and a second for an RFA, but not a UFA. Maybe a second if we felt like it was the piece we needed to go on a run. To me, this isn’t the year to give up value for a rental unless something changes and we think we would have a good chance at conference finals.

  10. Dicky94 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    I’d only move Larsson if they could get Vatanen out of Jersey first.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      He’s UFA in the summer….so .we’ll be getting Sammy and Taylor for just money… 🙂

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    Apropos of nothing, I just score 71 on Words with Friends with ‘Turtles’. 🐢

  12. frjohnk says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    “there is speculation around “Kapanen, Johnsson and Kerfoot….Leafs need a RH defenseman to my eye, and that would be Adam Larsson.”

    I like Larsson alot. Especially in the playoffs. But for the sake potentially contending as early as next year. I’d move Larsson + for any two of the aforementioned Leafs..

    Kapanen has more value than Larsson, especially when you factor in contract status, so like you mention, the Oilers would have to add.

    But the Oilers would need to make another move as it would mean Russell, Benning or Jones are the 2RD. Throw in an injury to the right side and there would be major problems on D.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Agreed. Benning or Russell are the only two veteran dmen we could move without giving/leaving the impression that we are giving up on this years playoffs.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Aside from Pageau and the Toronto Three, is there anyone who represents a quality fit?

    Its been mentioned before by others but NSH needs Dmen, specifically good PK Dmen and Bonino would be a great get for 3C.

    NSH can elevate Turris to 3C.

    Bonino has a year after this at $4.1 so the $$$ is almost a wash and 3C is checked off the list for next year.

    I almost guarantee that NSH is not on Russell’s NTC list as who the hell ever thinks NSH will need Dmen?

    After NSH’s top 3 of Josi, Ekholm and Ellis its been uneven and Ellis is out with a concussion as they slide down the standings, which may prompt Poile to do something.

    Fabbro will be fine, but has been a bit of a drag on Ekholm in his rookie year.

    Hamhouse is old and slow and needs sheltering, Irwin is awful, Tinordi is a tweener and Weber is ok on 3rd pair but not much more than that.

    I think it makes sense.

  14. tileguy says:

    Anybody know what the over and under was in that TOR-CAL game?
    This is why you don’t bet on sports unless you can afford to lose.

  15. dykema8 says:

    I’d trade samorukov and a second for jg pageau, but today’s that’s about the only move I’d do for that package

  16. flyfish1168 says:

    Kapanen, Kerfoot & Athanasiou are ones i would love us to be able to add.

  17. flea says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    When Edmonton played Nashville, one of the TSN hosts interviewed the NSH broadcast guy. I think it was Gregor.

    Anyways, Bonino has been one of the bright spots for Nashville this year. He was good against the Oilers, too.

    It would be a great get but I think Russell for Bonino isn’t reasonable. Believe Nashville would want more than that for him. I think one of the prospects needs to be bundled. I’d include JP as well to get that deal done.

    Agree with you -he’d be a great fit.

  18. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    I love Kapanen. I don’t think we have the D-man required to get him. Not one that we’re willing to part with anyways. I know I’ll get skewered for even suggesting this, but Nurse for Nylander?

    Organizationally it makes so much sense for both teams. We currently have D that are blocked on the left side, and tons of D prospects percolating. Nurse is going to want a huge contract next year. None of the other D we’d be willing to part with would move the needle for TO. Even if we added a pick we wouldn’t get Kapanen. They’re not looking for prospects or K. Russell.

    This makes sense, but for the Oilers it probably means they’re throwing in the towel on any success this year’ let alone this post season. Don’t forget Nurse has already missed some training camp time over a contract dispute in the past. He’s expecting to get paid this summer.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Both top 10 first rounders.

      I think I’d do it.

      Would Toronto? Would probalbly have to be a sign and trade,. Nylander is flying high right now.

      Would require some serious cap manipulation…No?

      • Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

        I think if TO agreed to take Gagner it would be pretty much a wash for this year. Gagner is UFA after season. I could be way off on both of those assumptions though.

  19. drglen says:

    we’re not looking for D men, but Fabbro is a heck of a player.

    it’s too bad Khaira’s on the bench and played poorly, as his value has gone down, but there is no place for him on the team.

    Benning, should probably be traded, or , be your 7 D.

    I’ve thought for a while that Larrson would be the trade piece for a quality NHL 3c or other forward. I’m going more by eye than by stats, admittedly, . he plays the hard minutes but he also been getting beat on those minutes. I would not call him a ‘shut down’ D man at this point. Problem is , this year, I don’t think either Jones or Lagesson is quite up to filling those minutes. And Tipp seems to trust him, and that’s a tell. tipp needs to win games so probably won’t put Lagesson in to see how he does at this point, barring injury.

    it does seem that JP has fallen off the edge of the world. I think his only hope is to come to camp next year to try and make the team.

    Bottom line, I don’t think Holland makes any moves, in spite of todays article/interview in the journal. The real need is a scorer for CMcd imo , as Neal does not seem to be that guy. Is anybody out there better than Neal? That’s why I think he should be bringing Benson up right now.. because he says the trade window opens in 8 to 10 games… . things could look very different if Benson comes in and provides some offensive spark.

  20. Reja says:

    frjohnk: Kapanen has more value than Larsson, especially when you factor in contract status, so like you mention, the Oilers would have to add.

    But the Oilers would need to make another move as it would mean Russell, Benning or Jones are the 2RD.Throw in an injury to the right side and there would be major problems on D.

    Please enlighten me why Kapanen has more value them Larsson. Just because a Kanuckle fan said so doesn’t make it so.

    • frjohnk says:

      Contract status is the big one

      Kapenan has 2 more years after this one and is RFA.
      Larsson has 1 more year after this one and is UFA.

      As I have said before, Larsson is one of the best in the league in separating man from puck and good defensively. He is limited by skating and offense and that is why does not play much 4 on 4, 3 on 3 and PP. Last 2 years we have not seen good results from Larsson and all this has affected his value throughout the league.

      Kapenan scored 44 points last year, 39 were at even strength. Plays all disciplines, would probably play PP1 if not blocked by the big 4.

      Kapenan brings a bit more to the game than Larson and when you factor in the contract status if there was a trade between these two, the Oilers would have to add.

  21. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    flea:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    When Edmonton played Nashville, one of the TSN hosts interviewed the NSH broadcast guy. I think it was Gregor.

    Anyways, Bonino has been one of the bright spots for Nashville this year. He was good against the Oilers, too.

    It would be a great get but I think Russell for Bonino isn’t reasonable. Believe Nashville would want more than that for him. I think one of the prospects needs to be bundled. I’d include JP as well to get that deal done.

    Agree with you -he’d be a great fit.

    I’m opening to adding to Russell to get Bonino for sure.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Bonino…..sounds Italian……like….Pisani…. 🙂

      Can you hear the drums Nicholas…..

      Just kind of rolls of the tounge

  22. Derek says:

    Lowetide:
    This ⬇️

    Look at this fancy Dan at work.

  23. JimmyV1965 says:

    Montreal would be a great trade partner. Wouldn’t want Kovi, but they have a bunch of nice wingers at a variety of prices. Even someone like Lehkonen would be a nice add. He’s likely cheaper than someone like Kappanen, he’s signed for another year at $2.4 mill and he’s an RFA afterwards.

  24. Coiler says:

    I would hate to trade away Larsson at all unless the return was huge. What he brings to the table, especially around playoff time is that intangible that isn’t easily measured in my opinion.

    Either Kapanen and Johnsson could have been had this past summer for the cost of a second rounder via offer sheet. To move an asset like Larsson for either one would not be a move I’d make. To move him for both though, I would consider it though I don’t think the Oilers could afford it cap-wise.

    I like Cape Breton Oilers 4Ever’s idea of moving Nurse for Nylander, one for one. But again, I don’t know how the Oilers would afford him under the cap.

    Interesting times.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      ” intangible that isn’t easily measured in my opinion.”

      In God we trust…….everyone else bring data.

      • flea says:

        I think the Oilers should consider re signing Larsson. I don’t think he’d be expensive and he could fill a bottom 4 option for another 4-5 years. 3-4M a year. Maybe someone pays him more but I’m not sure – the offense has never materialized for him. (Although lately he is looking a lot more confident with the puck)

        They don’t have a lot of RHD options aside from Bear and Bouchard. Benning is a bottom six option. Bear/bouchard/Larsson is pretty solid. Take Larsson out of there and you are putting major stress on two young players to fill a gap.

    • Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

      I honestly think moving Nurse is the solution to the lack of depth on the wings. We’re gonna watch the Lagesson’s and Persson’s of the world move on to be pretty useful players at really a good price (see J. Oesterle and E. Gustaffson) for other teams. The D pipeline is more than full, and if we go long-term at a high cap hit with Nurse, it means some prospects whither on thew vine.

      • godot10 says:

        Trading away a proven top three D entering his prime and relying on magic beans is a recipe for disaster.

        See Jeff Petry.

        Trading away players entering their prime because one has learned their limitations is nuts, and this is what the Oilers have done since the Cup run. It is absolute insanity.

        You cannot contend without most of your team in their prime between 24 and 29.

        • Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

          I’m not saying trade him for picks. Nylander is 23 year old RW. Nurse’s next contract is gonna make it difficult to add up front in the off-season. There’s more than a couple LHD in the system who are ready to at least get an opportunity. We have a lack of forward prospects in the system. I’d be happy if they acquired Kapanen instead, obviously not for Nurse.

          My tealeaves just tell me the Nurse negotiation is gonna be difficult and costly. We can’t really replace him straight-up, but we have potential guys who can share some of his minutes. The forward situation is quite bleak as it stands right now.

    • pts2pndr says:

      Assuming Toronto didn’t match.

  25. Oil2Oilers says:

    Deadline deal’s I would approve of:

    Larsson for Kappenen
    Russell for Cody Eakin
    Puljujarvi for Julien Gauthier

    And in honor of Bear’s current flow which might be endangered over the break, UFA bids;

    Nurse 5 years for 30 million
    Bear 7 year for 30 million
    Kassian 2 years for 6 million or 3 years for 8 million.

  26. JimmyV1965 says:

    The Leafs really don’t make sense as a trade partner. We need to move futures and they want someone who can play now. It’s interesting though. I think Larsson would have much more impact for them in the playoffs than Kappanen, Kerfoot or Johnsson.

  27. who says:

    dykema8:
    I’d trade samorukov and a second for jg pageau, but today’s that’s about the only move I’d do for that package

    That is way too much for a Pageau rental.
    I would have to fire you as GM.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, lots of talk that the Oilers are interest in Pageau, as they should be, he’d be a great fit the way he’s played this year. At the same time, all indications are the ask is for a first round pick plus more and that Ottawa may very well get it given the demand. The indications are also that Holland is HIGHLY unlikely to pay anywhere close to that price.

    OK, maybe a 1st round pick is not an egregious pay if the player comes signed with a contract in line with his historical norms – yes, his historical norms, not a contract based off his career year heater in his UFA year.

    The above seems highly unlikely.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Teams above us in the standings that are actually contending for the cup would get him at a lesser price.

      Pittsburgh for example would be giving up a 28th place first rounder whereas Edmonton’s first would be in the 14 to 18 range….( all depending on playoff results of course)

  29. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “TBY (-135) at WPG (+115) – I will continue to set money on fire by fading Hellebuyck like its my job.”

    THIS MADE ME LAUGH !!!

  30. Jethro Tull says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Bonino…..sounds Italian……like….Pisani…. 🙂

    Can you hear the drums Nicholas…..

    Just kind of rolls of the tounge

    I’m imagining Gene: Do you like your steak Bonino bone out?

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    As we talked about last night (and I haven’t had a chance to review any comments after 10pm of so, which I will in a bit), something along the lines of Larsson for Kapanen do make sense, at least to me.

    Don’t get me wrong, I acknowledge that absolute hole that leaves on the right side of the defence and I’d be more confortable with that trade in the off-season (and, even then, it could leave a huge hole).

    With that said, the Oilers need a top 6 winger prior to October and this would fill that hole with a top 6 winger who is still pre-prime, plays the high speed NHL game, is signed for 2 years at just over $3M and then is still an RFA and also is a plus PK guy. That is an enviable player for this team.

    Larsson leaves a big hole but his play has been inconsistent, he plays 2nd pairing minutes now and sometimes third pairing minutes and has hardly even been used on the PK recently – he may be in decline even though he’s shown some signs of 2017 Larsson – combine that with only one year left to UFA and the player he’d be traded for having so much more team control, well, its something that would need to be explored if available, in my opinion.

  32. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m opening to adding to Russell to get Bonino for sure.

    Absolutely.
    We might be adding to Russell just to get rid of that contract this summer.

  33. Reja says:

    One of my favourites Weight was a great leader who gave his all every game, never took a shift off. I wonder why he was snubbed so harshly by the the BOTB. If anyone knows the story please fill me in.

  34. JimmyV1965 says:

    I agree with WG, Nashville losing to Anaheim last night was a shocker. They’ve basically pissed away all their games in hand. They’ve fired the coach. Not sure what the hell they can do. Johanssen and Duchene were virtually invisible when we played them.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Get good players…keep good players….isnt the end all and be all….Poile’s done a great job with nothing to show for it.

  35. nelson88 says:

    Much of the “value” attached to TO’s wingers is going to depend on the Leafs record over the next 3 weeks. If they continue to lose ground a sense of panic will set in and prices will come down. Golden Boy has already played his “coach” card and things will get awfully uncomfortable if the team can’t make the playoffs or stumbles in and gets taken out in the first round.

  36. hunter1909 says:

    At first I thought Taylor Hall had just signed a contract to stay in Phoenix instead of returning to the Oilers like I know he’s going to do on a long term sweetheart deal replete with player friendly trade clauses galore lol

    Why? Because it would cement his place in NHL history plus elevate him to the pantheon of the glory Oilers of the 80s when he returns like the prodigal son and helps lead his beloved(okay OUR beloved) team to the promised land.

    Holland get it done!

    …meanwhile am enjoying the Friday of the year so far watching an entire new heating system getting installed by the SAS of heating engineers a father /son /grandson firm who work like that German Top Secret Drum Corps.

    Goofing off is the meaning of life.

  37. nelson88 says:

    Big fan of Samorukov so any deal would need to be for a good player with term or very least RFA

    Duchene is a good reminder of the difficulties trying to pinpoint culture in a dressing room let alone from outside those walls. When the AVS had a boat load of young talent (time before this one) but were under performing they traded O’Reilly because he was a bit “odd” and reportedly didn’t play well with some of the other alpha dogs. Turns out Duchene maybe just one of those very talented players that doesn’t move the needle regarding helping a team win. O’Reilly meanwhile can point to the ring finger.

    Like Bonino as a target and E. Staal should also be a target if acquistion cost is not too high.

  38. Cassandra says:

    These Leaf suggestions are ludicrous.

    There is no scenario in which they would want Larsson. He’s a 3rd pairing guy on that team.

    The gap in value between him and someone like Kapanen is very big. If you value Larsson you have to find a team that values him too. That isn’t the Leafs.

    Nurse might be of interest but no way for Nylander, who is a stone cold star and their 2nd best forward.

    Nurse for Kapanen and a pick is closer to even, but even then the Leafs wouldn’t do that midseason, that’s an offseason deal to replace Muzzin.

    Larsson for Bracco and a pick, maybe. The Leafs might do that, but only because they are so deep at forward that they are going to lose Bracco for nothing eventually. But Holl and Barrie are both clearly better than Larsson.

    The fact of the matter is the Leafs don’t need depth D. They have four or five LHD who can play in the NHL, and they have two good RHD. They could use a stud on either side and push everyone down but that describes everybody and the Leafs don’t have a stud.

    Finally, rental deals are bad ideas. If you can steal someone for nothing go ahead, that’s it.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Jake Muzzin says Hi .

      Toronto traded forward Carl Grundstrom, the rights to unsigned prospect Sean Durzi, and the Maple Leafs’ 2019 first-round draft pick in return for Jake Muzzin (age 29)

      • Cassandra says:

        I’m not sure what that is supposed to prove? In any case

        1) They have Muzzin already hence less of a need at LHD.
        2) Muzzin is better than what the Oilers have
        3) Kapanen is worth more than the 2019 first round draft pick (he’d get way more than that if they traded him)

        So your point is?

        • Darth Tu says:

          Didn’t they sign Muzzin last year when the clear need was a Right hander? They’ve further painted themselves into the leftorium corner and really need a right hander – hence all the Benning to Leafs chat from last year.

        • Andy Dufresne says:

          You said, “There is no scenario in which they would want Larsson.”

          I said…

          Larsson is a RHD. He is 4 yrs younger than Muzzin.

          The Leafs gave up 2 prospects and a 1st Round Pick for Muzzin

        • pts2pndr says:

          A very simple question for you. If the Leafs D is as good as you say it is and we know the goal tending and offence is by elite why are the not leading the entire league for the presidents cup?
          The truth of the matter is their D is ever bit as flawed as their offence is good.

  39. Andy Dufresne says:

    OK Everybody….Turn on the Radio….Lowetide’s On!

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    ducttapeandfoil:
    How is RW a major gap?

    Kass – 13 g
    Yamo – 2 g (0.29 gpg)/ Kapanen – 10 g (0.21 gpg)
    Chiasson – 6 g
    Archibald – 5 g

    I suppose that Kapanen replaces Yamo – sure he’s better – but the kid seems to be doing OK and his gpg is actually higher

    In contrast – the RHD without Larsson would be: Bear / Benning / Jones.Very very weak, and even worse, there is almost no depth behind it. Can’t believe you would set out to create that intentionally.

    Well, Kass is not under contract and there is every chance he prices himself out of the Oilers cap structure, no?

    None of the RWs you listed above are legit proven top 6 NHL wingers.

    I would say that Kassian’s 581 minutes with McDavid and 469 minutes with Drai zooms him a bit more than KK’s 187 minutes with Kerfoot, 160 minutes with Tavares and 156 minutes with Spezza.

    Not to mention that ages and, of course, as I did mention above, contracts.

  41. Cassandra says:

    Kapanen would be a major add. He’d be the 4th best forward on the Oilers. The gap between him and whoever the 5th best forward is massive.

    That said, on a team as thin as the Oilers he’s not a great fit. He’s an ideal 3rd line forward since his best asset is speed through the neutral zone, which he won’t get to use if he plays with McDavid and Draisatl, and the Oilers don’t have anyone to play with him on a 3rd line.

  42. errorjordan says:

    Cassandra,

    I look forward to Peto resigning in STL, Muzzin and Barrie leaving during free agency and then TOR sends Nylander to EDM for Larsson.

  43. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra:
    These Leaf suggestions are ludicrous.

    There is no scenario in which they would want Larsson.He’s a 3rd pairing guy on that team.

    The gap in value between him and someone like Kapanen is very big.If you value Larsson you have to find a team that values him too.That isn’t the Leafs.

    Nurse might be of interest but no way for Nylander, who is a stone cold star and their 2nd best forward.

    Nurse for Kapanen and a pick is closer to even, but even then the Leafs wouldn’t do that midseason, that’s an offseason deal to replace Muzzin.

    Larsson for Bracco and a pick, maybe.The Leafs might do that, but only because they are so deep at forward that they are going to lose Bracco for nothing eventually.But Holl and Barrie are both clearly better than Larsson.

    The fact of the matter is the Leafs don’t need depth D. They have four or five LHD who can play in the NHL, and they have two good RHD.They could use a stud on either side and push everyone down but that describes everybody and the Leafs don’t have a stud.

    Finally, rental deals are bad ideas.If you can steal someone for nothing go ahead, that’s it.

    How is a sub ppg winger a stone cold star?

    • Cassandra says:

      Points per game is the wrong stat, and I said star not super-star.

      I watch a lot of Leafs, Nylander is great all over the ice. He has a lot in common with Hall, a consistent target of unfair criticism and vastly underappreciated.

      He isn’t as good as Hall was at his peak, but I think he’s the better player now.

      • oil-in-the-blood says:

        I watch a lot of leafs games too and Nylander is very talented and is def on fire right now, he is also prone to the disappearing act and outside play especially in the playoffs playing a hard to play against team like Boston or St. Louis.

        Larsson for Kap would be a fine deal. Agree the oil may have to add because of the contract status of the two but not because Kap is that much more valuable. The leafs need a D like Larsson badly.

  44. Cassandra says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    errorjordan:
    Cassandra,

    I look forward to Peto resigning in STL, Muzzin andBarrie leaving during free agency and then TOR sends Nylander to EDM for Larsson.

    I will bet my children’s soul (both of them) the Leafs do not trade Nylander for Larsson.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      easy for you to say….you can just take two of your “childrens souls collection” and give them to your kids.

  45. russ99 says:

    JJS:
    LT – do you think Puljujarvi has more or less value than Samorukov?Is Pulj a better asset to move?

    I’d think Samorikov, he’s made the jump to the AHL, and has two more ELC years left.

    Puljujarvi is a RFA, needs a contract in the $1-2M range and whoever trades for his rights has to deal with his agent and likely playing time promises. Less worth for the price and hassle for a reclamation project.

  46. ArmchairGM says:

    I prefer buying low, shopping on the discount aisle if you will. Keep Larsson – at least for the playoffs – and trade peripheral players for guys who need a change of scenery or equivalent players at a different position. Here are some ideas I’ve seen around the interwebs:

    Russell for Darren Helm

    Puljujarvi + Benning (when healthy) for Ondrej Kase

    Chiasson + Khaira for Alex Galchenyuk

    Safin + Manning + 4th for Craig Smith

    Other “buy low” rentals include Jesper Fast, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Conor Sheary, Mikael Granlund, Jimmy Vesey, Brian Boyle and Mikko Koivu. Don’t give up anything significant from the roster OR anything significant from the prospect pool.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Ill play “other GM”…

      I like the concept youre going for.

      But I like Russell over Helm.

      I would concider giving you Kase for JP and Benning

      And with the other two deals…..you’d have to add on both

      • ArmchairGM says:

        These aren’t meant to be finished deals but rather a firm basis for a deal.

        – I think Detroit would have to add a pick or retain something (since they’re rebuilding and have lots of cap space, they’ll probably opt to retain)
        – I’d do the Kase deal as is
        – if you listen to PIT fans they’d do this deal without anything else. Galchenyuk is a UFA and very likely to walk in the summer, so they only care about his play this year. Chiasson has nearly identical production plus brings a physical element, while Khaira might do fine with the change of scenery, plus both guys are signed for next year (and Khaira is an RFA after that) – both are assets that could be moved in the summer AND they save $1.5M in cap space this year for further deadline acquisitions. It’s a win-win.
        – Smith is streaky and possibly in decline. NSH is frustrated and if they fall out of the playoffs I could see them trading a few pending free agents. The trouble is, as I’ve shown above, there are plenty of mediocre pending UFA’s available at the deadline so I don’t think prices will be high. NSH alone has 4 forwards who are underperforming and unrestricted:

        Smith, 30: 46, 10-10-20 for $4.25M
        Granlund, 27: 40, 8-8-16 for $5.75M
        Grimaldi, 26: 42, 8-15-23 for $1.0M
        Blackwell, 26: 14, 2-3-5 for $675k

        This offer might not be quite enough for Smith, but it’s not far off.

  47. Cassandra says:

    errorjordan:
    Cassandra,

    I look forward to Peto resigning in STL, Muzzin andBarrie leaving during free agency and then TOR sends Nylander to EDM for Larsson.

    You are on the right track, I bet the Leafs try and sign Pietreangelo and it has a chance of working. The Faulk signing makes no sense for the Blues, there is no reason to have 3 RHD that cost that much.

    If they sign Pietreangelo do they look at trading Parayko?

    In any case, I agree the Leafs are looking at the Blues.

    Sign Pietreangelo, or trade for Parayko.

    If I am the Leafs, I sign Muzzin (who is way better than Larsson) and I try and sign Pietreangelo (trade Reilly and say Kapanen for cap space), or I trade for Parayko.

    In any case the Leafs have no need for bit players, and Larsson is very much a bit player.

    The question mark in this scenario is that Muzzin has been hurt so it is more difficult to see how he fits into the Keefe-Leafs (which are the best thing going in the NHL). He may not have the puck chops to justify his salary, in which case they keep Reilly (which I think is a mistake because I think he is one of the rare offensive D who is actually as poor defensively as his reputation–very poor gaps).

    But any way you cut it Larsson is not someone they want. His puck skills are worse than Muzzin and he isn’t a dynamic enough skater to play their fluid style.

    I bet they’d like Caleb Jones though, even if he too is LHD. That’s more the Leafs style. I like him too, just so everyone knows I don’t have an anti-Oiler bias. I have an anti-mediocre player bias and Larsson is decidedly mediocre. I mean he’s better than Marincin, but that is the definition of damning with faint praise (and I like Marincin–the Oilers should have kept him instead of trading him to make room for Reinhart).

  48. Jethro Tull says:

    godot10:
    He has to be qualified at over $3 million to retain his rights or he becomes a UFA. Trading anything of value for him is a very risky proposition.

    True, but he’s probably the best kind of risk.

    There’s very little coming from Bake at forward.

    UFAs will be too expensive.

    Similar players with good contracts are unicorn shit and would cost considerably more.

    If we’re to get better, we have to break the cycle. Seeing as nobody wants to pay anything for anyone under any circumstances and magically wants the team to improve, then little bets like AA are a way to do it.

  49. hunter1909 says:

    Cassandra: Nurse might be of interest but no way for Nylander, who is a stone cold star and their 2nd best forward.
    Nurse for Kapanen and a pick is closer to even, but even then the Leafs wouldn’t do that midseason, that’s an offseason deal to replace Muzzin.

    Please eat shit and die.

    *Oilers fans everywhere*

  50. Reja says:

    frjohnk:
    Contract status is the big one

    Kapenan has 2 more years after this one and is RFA.
    Larsson has 1 more year after this one and is UFA.

    As I have said before, Larsson is one of the best in the league in separating man from puck and good defensively. He is limited by skating and offense and that is why does not play much4 on 4, 3 on 3 and PP.Last 2 years we have not seen good results from Larsson and all this has affected his value throughout the league.

    Kapenan scored 44 points last year, 39 were at even strength.Plays all disciplines, would probably play PP1 if not blocked by the big 4.

    Kapenan brings a bit more to the game than Larson and when you factor in the contract status if there was a trade between these two, the Oilers would have to add.

    You are under selling what Adam brings to the the table which is meat and patatoes. Adam plays on the tight side top pairing or top 4 his next contract will be reasonable because of the low point total and understandably for many GM’s because his Father passing and him breaking his leg. I expect Adam to be full beast mode when the playoffs begin which for me has more value then what Kap brings.

  51. godot10 says:

    Jethro Tull: True, but he’s probably the best kind of risk.

    There’s very little coming from Bake at forward.

    UFAs will be too expensive.

    Similar players with good contracts are unicorn shit and would cost considerably more.

    If we’re to get better, we have to break the cycle. Seeing as nobody wants to pay anything for anyone under any circumstances and magically wants the team to improve, then little bets like AA are a way to do it.

    Athanasiou is effectively a UFA who you have guaranteed over $3 million to next year, and blown all your spending money for next year already. Nothing of value should be traded for him so the qualifying offer does not hang over you. In the similar Justin Schultz situation, all the Oilers could get for him was a 3rd round draft pick. Athanasiou is a worse player, so maybe a 4th round pick, or a 3rd in 2021.

    Keep the cap space for the summer when equvalent players to Miller and Kadri and higher quality UFA forwards become available.

    • Jethro Tull says:

      Read third line down.

      UFAs will be too expensive and for some reason most of this blog hates them.

      And what does ‘effectively a UFA’ mean? Is he or not?

  52. Oilpower says:

    Why would Edmonton trade larson. They finally have 4 top 4 NHL d men. Trading Larson means your an injury away from having jones and Russel as your second pair. Edmonton is better off with larson then a middle six winger. trade a pick and a prospect for the middle six winger and keep the top 4 men on the team.

  53. Andy Dufresne says:

    From the Lowdown

    Steve Lansky….”I’m also the King of recognizing sarcasm”

    Priceless.

  54. McSorley33 says:

    I love Adam Larsson but if you can convert him to a quality forward – you do so in a nano -second.

    The game is getting faster – Adam is not.

    Agreed David Poile must be looking for answers as well. In my viewing, besides Josi and Eckholm, they didn’t seem right.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson named to the AHL all-star game. Essentially a Yamamoto replacement.

  56. Jethro Tull says:

    So we’ve come to eating shit and dealing the souls of our offspring.

    If that doesn’t get us a cost controlled, under 25, +1.9pp60 winger for McDavid, I don’t know what will.

  57. hunter1909 says:

    Cassandra:
    This was legitimately funny.

    Ha ha thanks. Compared to the trolling that mirthlessly spews from out of the mouth of Harpers Hair, plus the endless dirge coming from Original Pouzar you come across like no more than a slightly over the top concerned fan.

  58. hunter1909 says:

    @Jethro Tull: Thank you for the kind words when my heating system was reading the riot act. Everything is totally under control, so much that I’m having a small whisky to go with the 2 beers I’ve just guzzled.

    • Jethro Tull says:

      Curse you! I have groceries to do before hitting the brewery!

      No worries, I hope you got out of it without too much damage/charge.

      I’ll tip a glass in a couple of hours with ya from Peace River Brewing!

  59. hunter1909 says:

    With Taylor Hall all but certain to want to return to the Oilers and since his instructions to his greedy agent are more on the lines of “Fuck off get me on the Oilers” than any of the Lowetidian paranoid suggestions I’ve read to date…

  60. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra:
    I’m not sure what that is supposed to prove? In any case

    1) They have Muzzin already hence less of a need at LHD.
    2) Muzzin is better than what the Oilers have
    3) Kapanen is worth more than the 2019 first round draft pick (he’d get way more than that if they traded him)

    So your point is?

    I don’t get the love for Kappanen. He got 20 goals and 44 pts last year and he’s basically on the same pace this year. He’s young and there’s upside, but there are plenty of wingers in this league with similar numbers. Is he that much better than Johnsson? When you say he would get way more than a first rounder, what does this mean? Two first rounders? If the cost is that much, just move on to the next guy.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    dykema:
    I’d trade samorukov and a second for jg pageau, but today’s that’s about the only move I’d do for that package

    As a rental?

    I’m not sure that gets it done for Ottawa and I don’t think I do that from the Oilers’ perspective.

    Sammy is developing very nicely in the AHL right now, in his rookie pro year.

    If Pageau comes signed for the 4 year contract based off his historical production and abilities, not based off his UFA-year, career year, heater, then maybe I give up Sammy and good pick in a deep draft but not for a rental.

  62. Bag of Pucks says:

    I’d send Kris Russell to Carolina for Warren Fogele and a 2nd, then flip the 2nd with Khaira to Florida for Weegar.

    Would either of those clubs go for that? Who the hell knows.

  63. blainer says:

    The middle six winger we need may be right under our noses.

    Before we make any trades for that winger I would like to see Benson called up and show us what he has.

    Jeebus.. he has to better than Gags and JJ… and who knows he could just surprise us like Yammer has.

    I think Lars is important to keep for the playoffs and depth. No way I’m trading Jones either. His skating is perfect for today’s NHL and he put up points in the A when given the opportunity.

    Trade futures with JP for the help we need.

  64. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Heart skipped a beat for a sec when I saw the headline as I logged in: “what trade did I miss”

    – We are a Peg win from being out of the playoffs, and a win from being top of Pacific

    – Leafs too are another team’s win from being out of playoffs. With things so tight: that’s not a recipe for some of the “heavy deals” being mentioned.

    – Trading a Larsson or other NHL D, for more scoring, while we score goals fine, but let in more goals than every team above us in the standings doesn’t stand up to scrutiny IMO

    – My hope is a Maroon type trade: a bunch of nuthin’s for a disgruntled guy who might pop in a different situation. That’s my bet

  65. JimmyV1965 says:

    The Oilers don’t need Nylander. They need reasonably talented wingers who can play defence and score 15 goals with a competent centre. McDavid and Drai will turn them into 30 goal scorers.

  66. tileguy says:

    hunter1909:
    At first I thought Taylor Hall had just signed a contract to stay in Phoenix instead of returning to the Oilers like I know he’s going to do on a long term sweetheart deal replete with player friendly trade clauses galore lol

    Why? Because it would cement his place in NHL history plus elevate him to the pantheon of the glory Oilers of the 80s when he returns like the prodigal son and helps lead his beloved(okay OUR beloved) team to the promised land.

    Holland get it done!

    …meanwhile am enjoying the Friday of the year so far watching an entire new heating system getting installed by the SAS of heating engineers a father /son /grandson firm who work like that German Top Secret Drum Corps.

    Goofing off is the meaning of life.

    Wait til your retired, goofing off every day, just like a kid again. “Hon, where did you put that new package of depends?”

  67. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Ill play “other GM”…

    I like the concept youre going for.

    But I like Russell over Helm.

    I would concider giving you Kase for JP and Benning

    And with the other two deals…..you’d have to add on both

    These aren’t meant to be finished deals but rather a firm basis for a deal.

    – I think Detroit would have to add a pick or retain something (since they’re rebuilding and have lots of cap space, they’ll probably opt to retain)
    – I’d do the Kase deal as is
    – if you listen to PIT fans they’d do this deal without anything else. Galchenyuk is a UFA and very likely to walk in the summer, so they only care about his play this year. Chiasson has nearly identical production plus brings a physical element, while Khaira might do fine with the change of scenery, plus both guys are signed for next year (and Khaira is an RFA after that) – both are assets that could be moved in the summer AND they save $1.5M in cap space this year for further deadline acquisitions. It’s a win-win.
    – Smith is streaky and possibly in decline. NSH is frustrated and if they fall out of the playoffs I could see them trading a few pending free agents. The trouble is, as I’ve shown above, there are plenty of mediocre pending UFA’s available at the deadline so I don’t think prices will be high. NSH alone has 4 forwards who are underperforming and unrestricted:

    Smith, 30: 46, 10-10-20 for $4.25M
    Granlund, 27: 40, 8-8-16 for $5.75M
    Grimaldi, 26: 42, 8-15-23 for $1.0M
    Blackwell, 26: 14, 2-3-5 for $675k

    This offer might not be quite enough for Smith, but it’s not far off.

  68. frjohnk says:

    Reja: You are under selling what Adam brings to the the table which is meat and patatoes. Adamplays on the tight side top pairing or top 4 his next contract will be reasonable because of the low point total and understandably for many GM’s because his Father passing and himbreaking his leg. I expect Adam to be full beast mode when the playoffs begin which for me has more value then what Kap brings.

    Dont get me wrong.

    I like Larsson, IMO, I think it would be best to keep him at least until Bouchard is ready for top 4 action. Trading him for Kapenan just fills in one hole while creating another. Id do the trade if it meant we had a replacement coming in another deal. For the reasons I mentioned previously, I do not doubt for one bit it there was a poll who had more value it would be Kapanen > Larsson.

    You bring up a good point about playoffs. The playoff game in which there are less penalties and tighter checking is more suited to Larssons game. I also believe that a healthy and fully up to speed Larsson ( I dont think we have seen him yet this year) plays a simple but very close to mistake free hockey, which in the playoffs is what you need from your complimentary Dmen.

  69. Bulging Twine says:

    Puljujarvi’s Karpat is leading the league by 7 points while playing one less game than second place.

    They are very good defensively, giving up 22 less goals than the second best defensive team (with 2 less GP)

  70. ArmchairGM says:

    Jethro Tull:
    So we’ve come to eating shit and dealing the souls of our offspring.

    If that doesn’t get us a cost controlled, under 25, +1.9pp60 winger for McDavid, I don’t know what will.

    Well, Kase is at 1.77. But he was 2.34 in 30 games last year and 2.18 in 66 games the year before for an average of 2.09 in 137 games (he’s missed 74 games in that span, or 35%).

    For comparative purposes, Hall is at 1.90. He was 2.54 in 33 games last year and 2.42 in 76 the year before for an average of 2.30 in 154 games (he’s missed 60 games in that span, or 28%).

    One guy is getting paid $2.6M next year, the other probably 4x that. Hmm.

  71. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t get the love for Kappanen. He got 20 goals and 44 pts last year and he’s basically on the same pace this year. He’s young and there’s upside, but there are plenty of wingers in this league with similar numbers. Is he that much better than Johnsson? When you say he would get way more than a first rounder, what does this mean? Two first rounders? If the cost is that much, just move on to the next guy.

    +1

  72. pts2pndr says:

    frjohnk: Kapanen has more value than Larsson, especially when you factor in contract status, so like you mention, the Oilers would have to add.

    But the Oilers would need to make another move as it would mean Russell, Benning or Jones are the 2RD.Throw in an injury to the right side and there would be major problems on D.

    Value depends on what the acquiring team is willing to pay. Toronto needs a shut down right D and for them Kapanen is surplus to their needs. Larson would fit in their cap structure. The ask from Toronto however would be Nurse whom they covet, which in my opinion is an overpay.

  73. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Remember when Kassian’s current contract was an overpay. When he had 5P in the first half of 2018-19.

    Hard to believe he’s getting a multi-year $3M+ AAV deal because he played with Connor. Even Chiarelli didn’t give Maroon that deal.

  74. russ99 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Therein lies the rub.

    Unless Holland lets the acquiring club talk to Jesse’s agent, they won’t have any idea what nonsense they’re going to want to sign.

    And if Holland allows it, that could lower even further the offer coming back.

    This is why I’ll be surprised if he gets traded until the draft.

  75. Cassandra says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t get the love for Kappanen. He got 20 goals and 44 pts last year and he’s basically on the same pace this year. He’s young and there’s upside, but there are plenty of wingers in this league with similar numbers. Is he that much better than Johnsson? When you say he would get way more than a first rounder, what does this mean? Two first rounders? If the cost is that much, just move on to the next guy.

    20 G and 44 points while playing third line minutes, without playing time, and being a quality penalty killer has a lot of marginal value. Consider the difference between him and Khaira or Nygaard or Russell or Archibald. It is significant, I would guess 2 wins a year which, in the relative terms of NHL player value is enormous, and in terms of the Oilers could be the difference between making the playoffs and not.

  76. JimmyV1965 says:

    russ99:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Therein lies the rub.

    Unless Holland lets the acquiring club talk to Jesse’s agent, they won’t have any idea what nonsense they’re going to want to sign.

    And if Holland allows it, that could lower even further the offer coming back.

    This is why I’ll be surprised if he gets traded until the draft.

    I think JP has demonstrated that money is not an issue. There’s no way they demand anything much more than league min.

  77. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    godot10,

    There’s nothing saying he has to be signed at a raise. Even Chiarelli managed it in Edmonton.

  78. duct tape and foil says:

    Trade for Smith in Nashville. The guy is a dream fit with McDavid as he’s got wheels, plays a very intelligent two way game and can score at a decent rate. Price to obtain should not be too steep. Bonino is the other obvious guy and I’d be willing to give them JP in exchange if they made the deal early enough so that he can materially help us this season as well as next.

    Trading Larsson with no replacement is a deal you regret 1 week after the fact. The guy has limitations but he plays a very hard position (RHD) that is murder to fill and we have little depth at the slot. Look what TOR had to give up for one season of the very one dimensional Barrie.

    The dmen we deal this summer are Russell and Benning. Their combined salary pays Nurse and their replacements will be on entry level or cheap deals (Jones, Lagesson and Bouchard). Get good players, keep good players. Trading Nurse or Larsson without obvious replacements is folly.

    JimmyV1965: Athanasiou

  79. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Maroon can’t skate & is older than Kassian. Probably still just as effective, if not more. Tkachuk is a lousy skater but a borderline elite player. So what? I’m more concerned with the output/on-ice results than if someone is fast.

  80. Andy Dufresne says:

    Stauffer and Spector…….SPECulating again…..Spector reporting that a Kassian deal is close to happening. Could get done in the next couple of days….. will get done in the next 2 weeks.

    Their guess….. 3 x 4 million……or 4 x 3.5 million….. ouch.

    Lets enjoy Kassian at $1.95 while we can.

  81. LadiesloveSmid says:

    They should let Archibald play with 97 until the deadline, to stop themselves from overpaying Kassian. Though then they might just give that contract to Archie instead. Hmmm.

  82. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I mean Holland did sign Abdelkader to a 7-year 30M deal (3P this season), Darren Helm to a 5-year 20M deal (11P this season), and Frans Nielsen to a 6-year 32M deal (6P this season).

    I don’t know that we should be shocked he’s going to sign such a replaceable player to a lucrative deal.

    When you’ve got $21M tied up in 2 players + $6.75M in James Neal, you stay lean on bottom 6 Fs. These contracts + Kris Russells tie your hands so you can’t do anything all summer. Learn nothing, year after year after year.

    This team’s like my damn prodigal son, why do I love you so unconditionally when you fuck up on the daily.

  83. Jethro Tull says:

    hunter1909:
    With Taylor Hall all but certain to want to return to the Oilers and since his instructions to his greedy agent are more on the lines of “Fuck off get me on the Oilers” than any of the Lowetidian paranoid suggestions I’ve read to date…

    Cheers, got ‘Tastes Pink’s IPA.

    Friday day drinking.

  84. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra: 20 G and 44 points while playing third line minutes, without playing time, and being a quality penalty killer has a lot of marginal value.Consider the difference between him and Khaira or Nygaard or Russell or Archibald.It is significant, I would guess 2 wins a year which, in the relative terms of NHL player value is enormous, and in terms of the Oilers could be the difference between making the playoffs and not.

    Meh. If Kapanen is on this team, he’s our best winger. No question. But you can literally say that about 75-100 wingers in this league. We have the worst wingers.

    Are his numbers any better than Lehkonen? He has similar production, gets the same ice time, is good on the PK and gets no PP points. If Toronto loves Kapanen that much, target one or two of the 99 other wingers who would improve this team.

    We’re not trading with Toronto. They want immediate help and we need to trade futures.

  85. drglen says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    do you think Kassian will be an underperforming overpay? I’d keep it to three years.. but.. true he is flourishing to a certain extent because he is with connor, but… he is also a perfect winger for connor.

    First rounder.. took a long time to find his game and his spark, but I think when a guy finds his game late like this, well he’s not going to lose his game. The opposite is much more common.. guy lighting it up when younger, but never finds his game. ( but also true players often rapidly lose finish after 30, so it seems)

    My biggest concern with Kassian is frankly that he’s going to get injured, accidentally or on purpose, and that is what is going to slow him down.

    he’s not quite in the cam neely rick nash category, but, he’s pretty close and problem is so many teams want a guy like that. By stats he’s probably a 3 to 3.25 but market dictates he costs more. I say pay him.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      I think Kassian has a lot of value.

      I orignally thought he would come in at around 3×3

      However, Im trying to chnage my ways and learn more from the analytics experts, and Woodguy and others have me thinking (convinced?) that we shouldn’t pay him more than 2×2.5.(Woodguy says 2x 2.5 I think)

      SO….while my heart says pay him…..give him his 3×3…..I can allow that letting him walk at 3×3 would not be a disaster.

      Letting him walk at 3×4 seems like a no brainer.

      He just looks so solid playing alongside McDavid and McDavid likes him there. But as Woodguy points out LOTS OF GUYS will/would look solid playing with McDavid.

      Im rambling…..but….Id be very happy at anything less than 3 x 3

  86. Numenius says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Stauffer and Spector…….SPECulating again…..Spector reporting that a Kassian deal is close to happening. Could get done in the next couple of days….. will get done in the next 2 weeks.

    Their guess….. 3 x 4 million……or 4 x 3.5 million….. ouch.

    Lets enjoy Kassian at $1.95 while we can.

    I sure hope they’re doing the old talk up the price beforehand so the fans are relieved when it’s lower.

    3 x 3 million I can handle (even though it’s still too high), but any more than that is pure folly.

  87. drglen says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Ya I do remember many of us were calling him an overpayed 4th liner. I don’t think we’ve /(media) have talked enough about that. What happened? What is the changes in his ‘off ice’ regiment?

    • BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

      What happened is playing cherry McMinutes.

      We saw the same situation play out with Maroon.

      Don’t overpay for zoomed boxcars.

  88. hunter1909 says:

    Pay Kassian 2.75 million and add a 4th year that will keep him happy.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      In a perfect world (with endless cap space) of course we all want to see what McDavid could do with two legitmate top line wingers.

      But given our current cap situation, Kassian at

      3.5, 3, 2, 1.5 Total 10 million for 4 years. 2.5 AVV I’d be ok with

  89. jtblack says:

    “Their guess….. 3 x 4 million……or 4 x 3.5 million….. ouch.”

    either of these will make me cry …not tears of joy ….

    Ken has a past …….

  90. Eh Team says:

    Bag of Pucks: I’d send Kris Russell to Carolina for Warren Fogele and a 2nd, then flip the 2nd with Khaira to Florida for Weegar.
    Would either of those clubs go for that? Who the hell knows.

    How does Russell get anything back in value? He’s paid like a second pairing D and he’s performing like a 3rd pairing D. And he has an extra year on his contract. I’d think the Oilers would be happy to have some team take him off of their roster for nothing. If he’s waived, I bet he clears waivers.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      This is an interesting quesiton. Putting aside his modified NTC,

      Some in here think Russell has trade value (could be moved at no cost)

      Others think that it would cost to move him ( salary retained or add in a pick)

      I honestly have no clue what GM’s think his value/worth is.

      The only time I think we can move him is at the deadline next year. (would make an ok 7th D for a contender;s cup run)

      Or maybe a team like Winnipeg wants him if we retain.

  91. drglen says:

    Backes on waiver?

    Hmmm…

  92. Bulging Twine says:

    Does WPG win tonight at home against TBL and knock EDM out of 8th?

  93. duct tape and foil says:

    Agree with most of that and would counter that none of our RHD aside from Larsson are proven legit top 4 defensemen. You fix one problem of moderate concern only to open another that could be both catastrophic and long term.

    Kapanen is surplus to essential TML needs, Larsson is essential to our needs, relative need trumps small to moderate differences in skill almost every time.

    Solution, get a winger without gutting your RHD such as Lehkonen, Smith etc.

    OriginalPouzar: foil

  94. Bulging Twine says:

    Hopefully the players are dialed in tomorrow and not all caught up in their flights and arrangements for Mexico later that night/next day.

  95. jtblack says:

    KASS per 82 games over career :

    13 G 15 A 28 P
    Never over 30 points.

    This year will be his best statistical year, meaning Ken will be paying for a “heater” & a “zoomer” …

    Kass has been below 50% CF every year and he’s been a drag on teammates CF%rel.

    He does offer more than stats, but we all know paying for “guts” “character” & toughness” usually backfires on those pounding that drum.

    Next year will be his 30 year old season. Locking him up for years
    30
    31
    32
    33

    is flat out crazy ….

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Bat shit crazy

      or

      Patsy Cline Crazy

      ~ We dont need no stinkin analytics guy…..

      We need us a pharmacist ~ 🙂

  96. Andy Dufresne says:

    jtblack:
    KASS per 82 games over career :

    13 G15 A 28 P
    Never over 30 points.

    This year will be his best statistical year, meaning Ken will be paying for a “heater” & a “zoomer” …

    Kass has been below 50% CF every year and he’s been a drag on teammates CF%rel.

    He does offer more than stats, but we all know paying for “guts” “character” & toughness” usually backfires on those pounding that drum.

    Next year will be his 30 year old season.Locking him up for years
    30
    31
    32
    33

    is flat out crazy ….

    How quickly can we get this on a billboard???

  97. Andy Dufresne says:

    jtblack:
    KASS per 82 games over career :

    13 G15 A 28 P
    Never over 30 points.

    This year will be his best statistical year, meaning Ken will be paying for a “heater” & a “zoomer” …

    Kass has been below 50% CF every year and he’s been a drag on teammates CF%rel.

    He does offer more than stats, but we all know paying for “guts” “character” & toughness” usually backfires on those pounding that drum.

    Next year will be his 30 year old season.Locking him up for years
    30
    31
    32
    33

    is flat out crazy ….

    Didnt Darcy just explain this stuff to Stauffer a couple of weeks ago??

  98. jtblack says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    I just want the Oilers to WIN.

    when is the last time an Oiler sat out due to a contract battle? I want KEN to dig in.

    Kassian has value, but locking up an aging power forward is loaded with risk ..

    sign him to a fair deal.  If Ken can’t sign him for less than 2.5 Mil and / or less than 3 years; maybe Ken has to trade him or let him walk.  It’s that simple.  

  99. duct tape and foil says:

    I don’t want to over-pay Kass either, but are people suggesting that previous seasons where he was drinking himself out of the league or buried on the 4th line with Letestu and Brodziak by the Thoroughly Mediocre Coach represents his expected future performance? That is pretty misleading.

    He’s a unique situation and signing him is a gamble for anyone. I expect we will get him at something like 3 x 3. Anything that starts with a 4 in terms of contract length or salary is not good.

  100. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Andy Dufresne: Didnt Darcy just explain this stuff to Stauffer a couple of weeks ago??

    I used to like Stauff. Either he’s lost his marbles or is forced to peddle EDM koolaid.

    Talking about how EDM should look into Dylan McIlrath as a 6/7D because of Tkachuk is so ass backwards.

  101. Bulging Twine says:

    Last year the Oilers came out of their 10 day break 1-8

    What’s a 10 day break doing in the middle of a season?

    It’s not like there are any important games immediately after the break or anything.

  102. Reja says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    In a perfect world (with endless cap space) of course we all want to see what McDavid could do with two legitmate top line wingers.

    But given our current cap situation, Kassian at

    3.5, 3, 2, 1.5Total 10 million for 4 years. 2.5 AVV I’d be ok with

    3×3.33 round it to a cool 10 million or 4×3=12 million Holland is going to sign him before the showdown at the OK corral. Kass will be a force in the 2 game affair and will be talking about it for weeks. Remember you heard here first.

  103. Bling says:

    The numbers being tossed around for Kassian are nuts.

    Let him go to UFA and see what the offers are.

    Also, how is signing Kassian a priority over Nurse and Bear? Yes, the latter two are RFA, but I would want to make damn sure that I can pay those guys and add a top six guy — maybe Hall — before blowing cap space on Kassian.

    Kassian for 4 million a year would fit Holland’s cap management track record to a T, sadly.

  104. Bling says:

    I don’t think Stauffer and Spec are far off.

    We were doomed after the Tkachuk incident when everyone called Kassian a heart and soul guy and good in the room.

    For shit sake, we just traded Lucic!

    It’s like a carousel.

  105. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    jtblack:
    Andy Dufresne,

    I just want the Oilers to WIN.

    when is the last time an Oiler sat out due to a contract battle?I want KEN to dig in.

    Kassian has value, but locking up an aging power forward is loaded with risk ..

    sign him to a fair deal. If Ken can’t sign him for less than 2.5 Mil and / or less than 3 years; maybe Ken has to trade him or let him walk. It’s that simple.

    Let’s make a sacrifice to the hockey Gords for Archi to get a Hattie tomorrow so that KH can regain perspective on the Kass contract negotiations….

  106. Bulging Twine says:

    I think Larsson may benefit by using a longer twig. It would help him with the poke check’s a little more. Mucho beneficial for Dmen. He uses a pretty short one for a defenceman.

  107. duct tape and foil says:

    If Nashville is truly going to implode this year, then I make a real hard run to get BOTH Smith and Bonino in the next few weeks. Start with JP, which will be fine if they are out of the playoffs this year, add Lagesson to clear some space for Samarukov, maybe swap 2nd and 3rd round picks. Would they take Russell to even out the cap if we retain 1.5 next year?

  108. hunter1909 says:

    Bling: We were doomed after the Tkachuk incident when everyone called Kassian a heart and soul guy and good in the room.
    For shit sake, we just traded Lucic!
    It’s like a carousel.

    lol

    I dunno. The team is in playoff position unlike other depressing seasons.

    What are they supposed to do? Jettison a player who well might sign a good deal that benefits the team, or in other words(actually your exact ones lol) the team like Lowetide opinion is doomed to repeat its errors like some bad LSD trip?

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Therein lies the rub.

    Unless Holland lets the acquiring club talk to Jesse’s agent, they won’t have any idea what nonsense they’re going to want to sign.

    And if Holland allows it, that could lower even further the offer coming back.

    This is why I’ll be surprised if he gets traded until the draft.

    I would think that Jesse would be willing to sign his qualifying offer next season with an NHL team that is not the Oilers. I don’t imagine his contract is at issue.

  110. TheGreatBigMac says:

    Wow just wow, I was just looking at the league points leaders on nhl.com and Ryan Strome has 42 points in 46 games and is #34 on that list. Can you imagine if he was our 3rd line center??

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Strome plus 3 million in cap space was fair value for Eberle. He was a willing mentor to JP and JP liked him, as did McDavid and the locker room.

      What a loss that was.

      • jm363561 says:

        This is why using assets for a 3C is less important than a Top 6 winger. I am pretty sure Nuge would agree. Quality of line mates is a thing.

  111. ArmchairGM says:

    drglen:
    Andy Dufresne,

    do you think Kassian will be an underperforming overpay?I’d keep it to three years.. but.. true he is flourishing to a certain extent because he is with connor, but… he is also a perfect winger for connor.

    First rounder.. took a long time to find his game and his spark, but I think whena guy finds his game late like this, well he’s not going to lose his game.The opposite is much more common.. guy lighting it up when younger, but never finds his game. ( but also true players often rapidly lose finish after 30, so it seems)

    My biggest concern with Kassian is frankly that he’s going to get injured, accidentally or on purpose, and that is what is going to slow him down.

    he’s not quite in the cam neely rick nash category, but, he’s pretty close and problem is so many teams want a guy like that.By stats he’s probably a 3 to 3.25 but market dictates he costs more. I say pay him.

    By what stats does Kassian deserve that kind of money? Brett Connolly had more success over a much longer period with poorer (by far) linemates and got $3.5M x 4. Even playing with Connor McDavid this year Kassian can’t match Connolly’s scoring!

    Ryan Dzingel was coming off a 26-goal, 56-point season (following a 23-goal, 41-point season) and got $3.375M x 2. Both players were signed off the open market, Holland has zero competition for Kassian right now.

    I disagree wholeheartedly with your assessment that the market dictates that he’ll get more than $3 – 3.25M.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Those are some really good examples.

      Please forward this to Holland and Stauffer and Spector and ….

      Holland was in on Connolly so he should kind of know the market.

      I hope he isnt inluenced too heavily by having lost out on Connolly.

      As you say, at htis point he’s really just negotiating with/aginst himself.

      Surely hes got to be able to see that a) playing with McDavid is zooming Kass and b) that Kass wants to play here.

      Holland should have enough leverage to get Kass signed for $1m less than Connolly got or there abouts.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I think JP has demonstrated that money is not an issue. There’s no way they demand anything much more than league min.

    Well, he’ll be subject to his QO – he could sign for under his QO but I would think that the acquiring team would be fine with his QO being signed upon acquisition.

  113. Andy Dufresne says:

    My prediction is that Kassian will get signed, and that right soon.

    And that 75% of this site will hate it

    20% will be ok with it

    and 5% will like it.

    I hope Im wrong.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    Not that I don’t agree trading Larsson creates a big hole, however, recall they did have ample success without him for the first 6 weeks of the season – yup, the big guns were on a huge heater but they were also getting zero hope and, yup, the goalies were fire as well but that was also partially due to team defence.

    Joel Persson is playing very well in Bakersfield (although missed last game being banged up).

    If he was serviceable before the demotion, I imagine he’s a bit better now – plus Benning is back after the break, hopefully, and potentially healthy.

    I agree, its far from ideal, however, Larsson is 4th on the 5 on 5 minute distribution on most nights and isn’t even killing penalties regularly right now – to acquire a legit 2nd line speedster who can PK, is pre-prime, locked up for 2 years at a discount and then RFA – that’s tough to turn down in this scenario.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      I think that the organization is prediposed and committed to making a run at (and in) the playoffs. Trading Larsson now does not advance that objective.

  115. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack:
    “Their guess….. 3 x 4 million……or 4 x 3.5 million….. ouch.”

    either of these will make me cry …not tears of joy ….

    Ken has a past …….

    Someone send Ken a memo:

    Zack is scoring 1.34 G/60 with McDavid, 17th in the league.
    Zack is scoring 0.67 G/60 without McDavid, 212th in the league.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      I agree with you.

      I ask / wonder…..Is the organization making a decision on Kassian armed with all the data, logic, and examples that are being used here in this thread and in Woodguys posts.??

      My guess is Yes.

    • flyfish1168 says:

      I hope zack’s agent doesn’t think his client is zooming Connor

  116. ArmchairGM says:

    TheGreatBigMac:
    Wow just wow, I was just looking at the league points leaders on nhl.com and Ryan Strome has 42 points in 46 games and is #34 on that list.Can you imagine if he was our 3rd line center??

    Does he come with Artemi Panarin? Strome without Panarin is a completely different animal.

  117. pts2pndr says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    What happened is playing cherry McMinutes.

    We saw the same situation play out with Maroon.

    Don’t overpay for zoomed boxcars.

    As I recall there were a number of players that rotated through as McDavid’s winger and Kassian is now the longest serving right winger or if not close to. The grass always looks greener on the other side of the fence.

  118. blainer says:

    If Holland adds a NMC with a crazy contract amount and term we are back to having Chia for a GM. This man has to have learned some lessons. He worked magic with the Looch trade and did a great signing of Jones. Even Smith at the moment is not looking so bad.

    I like Kass but overpaying him without some cheap top tier forwards in the system is bat shit crazy.. We need that money elsewhere.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Agree with most of that and would counter that none of our RHD aside from Larsson are proven legit top 4 defensemen. You fix one problem of moderate concern only to open another that could be both catastrophic and long term.

    Kapanen is surplus to essential TML needs, Larsson is essential to our needs, relative need trumps small to moderate differences in skill almost every time.

    Solution, get a winger without gutting your RHD such as Lehkonen, Smith etc.

    I don’t disagree with any of this – as I’ve kept saying, its far from ideal.

    At the same time, I’m not sure Larsson has proven to be a legit top 4 d-man over the aggregate of the last few years. He’s had a couple good stretches (one last month where he looked like 2017 Larsson for a 5 games) but he’s struggled with the speed of the game somewhat consistently, has had many games with 3rd pairing 5 on 5 minutes and, recently, isn’t killing penalties regularly.

    The player that he was earlier in his Oiler career, losing that player would create a massive hole, however, have we had that player for more than a couple shortish stretches in the last few years?

  120. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jethro Tull: True, but he’s probably the best kind of risk.

    There’s very little coming from Bake at forward.

    UFAs will be too expensive.

    Similar players with good contracts are unicorn shit and would cost considerably more.

    If we’re to get better, we have to break the cycle. Seeing as nobody wants to pay anything for anyone under any circumstances and magically wants the team to improve, then little bets like AA are a way to do it.

    Can I use ‘Unicorn Shit’ as my handle? Brill mate!

  121. Reja says:

    What a bunch of tight wads with or without McDavid Kass brings a unique blend that’s not that easily replaced. Kass has speed and health and will cover easily 3×3.33=10 million I say the only thing holding up the announcement is Kass digging in on the forth year. It’s easy 4 years at 3 million a year a smart motivated set for life contract will easily cover the bet. I really think Kass hasn’t peaked net he’s finally getting well deserved respect around the league and the way he handled the whole Tkachuk episode was beautiful. We finally have a must see nationally BOA. Do we actually want Tkachuk and sneaky sleazy Gio slew footing and taking liberties for the next few years, I sure don’t because they will but a punch to the beak makes you think twice. Holland pay the man and let’s get it signed for his big return.

  122. duct tape and foil says:

    This can be spun a different way. Most people thought he the team was dead when Larsson broke his leg in game 1. The big guns really buckled down in his absence, and with Bear’s emergence, they weathered the storm. I would suggest that Drai, McDavid, Klef all let out a huge sigh of relief when he came back and that’s a major source of the letdown in late Nov / early Dec. You can’t play that way all year.

    So his minutes are reduced this season. Did you forget the guy broke his leg this season and came back as soon as humanly possible? You think that might have a little something to do with his usage and performance in the last 4-6 weeks? Pretending that didn’t happen and suggesting that this is the new normal ignores the severity of that injury. But it’s Larsson and everyone think he’s ironman and can plow through anything.

    Trading Larsson creates a massive hole and it took this team’s best players going at 110% to cover when he was gone earlier this season. The team would miss him a lot if he was traded and the hole would not be nearly as easily papered over as you suggest. Larsson is getting back up to speed, the big guns had some R&R, and this coincides with the team playing better. No need at all to bugger that up by trading a key player for a complimentary forward.

    OriginalPouzar:
    Not that I don’t agree trading Larsson creates a big hole, however, recall they did have ample success without him for the first 6 weeks of the season – yup, the big guns were on a huge heater but they were also getting zero hope and, yup, the goalies were fire as well but that was also partially due to team defence.

    Joel Persson is playing very well in Bakersfield (although missed last game being banged up).

    If he was serviceable before the demotion, I imagine he’s a bit better now – plus Benning is back after the break, hopefully, and potentially healthy.

    I agree, its far from ideal, however, Larsson is 4th on the 5 on 5 minute distribution on most nights and isn’t even killing penalties regularly right now – to acquire a legit 2nd line speedster who can PK, is pre-prime, locked up for 2 years at a discount and then RFA – that’s tough to turn down in this scenario.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rodrigue stops 23 of 26 in a 4-3 win.

    Lavoie with a first period goal and assist as Chicoutimi is up 2-0

    Phil Kemp with an assist as Yale is up 3-0.

  124. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja:
    What a bunch of tight wads with or without McDavid Kass brings a unique blend that’s not that easily replaced. Kass has speed and health and will cover easily 3×3.33=10 million I say the only thing holding up the announcement is Kass digging in on the forth year. It’s easy 4 years at 3 million a year a smart motivated set for life contract will easily cover the bet. I really think Kass hasn’t peaked net he’s finally getting well deserved respect around the league and the way he handled the whole Tkachuk episode was beautiful. We finally have a must see nationally BOA. Do we actually want Tkachuk and sneaky sleazy Gio slew footingand taking liberties for the next few years, I sure don’t because they will but a punch to the beak makes you think twice. Holland pay the man and let’s get it signed for his big return.

    You forgot the part where Lucic breaks Kassian’s jaw.

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Hopefully the players are dialed in tomorrow and not all caught up in their flights and arrangements for Mexico later that night/next day.

    With 10 full days off, I’d be heading somewhere farther than Mexico – SE Asia or Zanzibar and even Costa Rica – the wife and I hit Buenos Aires, Hong Kong and Sri Lanka for 7-9 days journeys – eff the jet lag/time change.

    I do imagine the boys stay closer than that mind you.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: Didnt Darcy just explain this stuff to Stauffer a couple of weeks ago??

    That was an awkward conversation because Dracy was explaining what the contract should look like and Stauff was talking about what its going to look like.

    Neither were wrong.

    Zack is going to get some term and he’s going to get an AAV higher than warranted by his historical production and game.

    Holland will overpay for his services vis-a-vis what he should get, the question is how much and if he’s willing to walk away given what the market is most likely willing to give.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Rodrigue stops 23 of 26 in a 4-3 win.

    Lavoie with a first period goal and assist as Chicoutimi is up 2-0

    Phil Kemp with an assist as Yale is up 3-0.

    Lavoie adds a second goal mid-way through the second as Chicoutimi leads 3-1 (Lavoie with 2G/1A).

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    I think that the organization is prediposed and committed to making a run at (and in) the playoffs. Trading Larsson now does not advance that objective.

    I don’t agree with the second sentence necessarily.

    With respect to the first sentence, management has been very clear that the ultimate goal, which looks past this year, is primary.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Does he come with Artemi Panarin? Strome without Panarin is a completely different animal.

    Perhaps Strome without Lucic and/or Puljujarvi and/or bottom 6 players in general is a different animal?

  130. Ryan says:

    Reja:
    What a bunch of tight wads with or without McDavid Kass brings a unique blend that’s not that easily replaced. Kass has speed and health and will cover easily 3×3.33=10 million I say the only thing holding up the announcement is Kass digging in on the forth year. It’s easy 4 years at 3 million a year a smart motivated set for life contract will easily cover the bet. I really think Kass hasn’t peaked net he’s finally getting well deserved respect around the league and the way he handled the whole Tkachuk episode was beautiful. We finally have a must see nationally BOA. Do we actually want Tkachuk and sneaky sleazy Gio slew footingand taking liberties for the next few years, I sure don’t because they will but a punch to the beak makes you think twice. Holland pay the man and let’s get it signed for his big return.

    This is like deja-vu with the Chiasson contract.

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Not that I don’t agree trading Larsson creates a big hole, however, recall they did have ample success without him for the first 6 weeks of the season – yup, the big guns were on a huge heater but they were also getting zero hope and, yup, the goalies were fire as well but that was also partially due to team defence.

    Joel Persson is playing very well in Bakersfield (although missed last game being banged up).

    If he was serviceable before the demotion, I imagine he’s a bit better now – plus Benning is back after the break, hopefully, and potentially healthy.

    I agree, its far from ideal, however, Larsson is 4th on the 5 on 5 minute distribution on most nights and isn’t even killing penalties regularly right now – to acquire a legit 2nd line speedster who can PK, is pre-prime, locked up for 2 years at a discount and then RFA – that’s tough to turn down in this scenario.

    Most of the RHD aren’t applying for Larsson’s job. They are applying for Bouchard’s given their skill sets.

    Except perhaps Berglund

  132. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ryan: This is like deja-vu with the Chiasson contract.

    Chiasson is nothing like Kassian.

    It is important to have a play like Kassian when you have players like Connor, as long as the league isn’t seriously interested in protecting them.

    Lucic wasn’t good enough to play with talent and didn’t pick the right spots for standing up.

    I don’t want any more boat anchors, but a clean guy who can skate isn’t the worst bet.

    Certainly the skill players like knowing nobody needs to give Kassian a tap on the shoulder to step up. It’s not the worst thing that they may ask him to step down, and that is within the rules.

  133. Lowetide says:

    Ryan Holt
    @CondorsHolty
    ·
    7m
    Starrett goes tonight as Marody returns to the lineup for the first time in four games.

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    duct tape and foil:
    This can be spun a different way. Most people thought he the team was dead when Larsson broke his leg in game 1. The big guns really buckled down in his absence, and with Bear’s emergence, they weathered the storm. I would suggest that Drai, McDavid, Klef all let out a huge sigh of relief when he came back and that’s a major source of the letdown in late Nov / early Dec. You can’t play that way all year.

    So his minutes are reduced this season. Did you forget the guy broke his leg this season and came back as soon as humanly possible? You think that might have a little something to do with his usage and performance in the last 4-6 weeks? Pretending that didn’t happen and suggesting that this is the new normal ignores the severity of that injury. But it’s Larsson and everyone think he’s ironman and can plow through anything.

    Trading Larsson creates a massive hole and it took this team’s best players going at 110% to cover when he was gone earlier this season. The team would miss him a lot if he was traded and the hole would not be nearly as easily papered over as you suggest. Larsson is getting back up to speed, the big guns had some R&R, and this coincides with the team playing better. No need at all to bugger that up by trading a key player for a complimentary forward.

    I don’t disagree that losing Larsson via trade could lead to a massive hole – I’ve posted that myself in this thread and last night . At the same time, I’m not as convinced as I once was that it would.

    You say the team “weathered the storm” when Larsson was out – they did more than that, they excelled, finding ways to win game after game after game including doing a great job of keeping goals against down – that was not just goaltending but the team as whole – Joel Persson treaded water in the 2nd pairing (Adam’s spot) and the other two pairs excelled.

    The team was carried by the two big stars, yes, however, the point of the trade is adding a player that would help take that load – add skill, speed, offensive acumen, to play in the top 6 – a more established and faster Yamamoto – look at the impact that player had.

    Lets also not forget that the two had to carry such a high load because no one else, save a James Neal PP heater, was contributing – the bottom six had like one goal in a month. That was not sustainable and has corrected.

    Yes, coming back from the injury and being behind the league is clearly a factor, however, Larsson hasn’t been the player you are describing for the better part of three seasons now. He’s not even killing penalties regularly.

    I don’t want to trade Adam Larsson either but, given ages, decline vs entering prime, organization depth at various positions and, importantly, contracts and team control, it would have to be explored if an option, in my opinion.

  135. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: You forgot the part where Lucic breaks Kassian’s jaw.

    Nurse can break even with Lucic while Kass hammers on Sneaky Gio while golden spoon fed Tkachuk hides behind the refs.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Starrett gets the start tonight.

    Persson remains out banged up – who knows what.

    Marody finally back after missing 5, yes 5 games with a week long plus flu bug.

  137. Bulging Twine says:

    OriginalPouzar: With 10 full days off, I’d be heading somewhere farther than Mexico – SE Asia or Zanzibar and even Costa Rica – the wife and I hit Buenos Aires, Hong Kong and Sri Lanka for 7-9 days journeys – eff the jet lag/time change.

    I do imagine the boys stay closer than that mind you.

    funny, as i was typing that, i was thinking, they have time to do more than mexico.
    Hawaii is regaining it’s popularity I hear – as a quickish warm holiday

    aren’t nhlers renown for going to Cabo?

  138. Bulging Twine says:

    Tampa crushing WPG 5-1
    15 minutes to go

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looks like Maskimov is playing with Cave and Esposito, at least to start.

    Starrett with a diving stop on the first shot of the game on AJ Greer after that line gets caved – a massive diving stop.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Of note, even with Marody back, looks like Granlund is centering Benson and Marody and Granny gets a one-timer from the slot away but a massive save at the other end. One massive save at each end.

    Unfortunately, Malone does his best lazy center impression and loses his man to the net and the Eagles take a 1-0 lead off a nothing play but a defensive miscue.

  141. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Perhaps Strome without Lucic and/or Puljujarvi and/or bottom 6 players in general is a different animal?

    Poor Strome, he spent 4 years dragging Lucic around on the Island and then had to do the same in Edmonton and even last year in Manhattan.
    I give Strome credit for developing good chemistry with Panarin, but don’t be fooled, it’s all Panarin

  142. duct tape and foil says:

    Well I don’t think we are going to agree on the relative value of the player. I’m not against trading Larsson, but only if a team like TML is willing to overpay. Something like JP and Larsson for Kapanen and Barrie. Sure we don’t sign Barrie next year, but neither will Toronto. We do get a RD this year and Kapanen to replace JP. We also get Larsson’s salary next year to pick up 2RD who would be 3rd in a year or so if Bouch develops right. TML gets a cheaper winger in JP and an extra year of an affordable Larsson to sort out their defense which is going to be a mess next year with all the UFA and no cap room.

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree that losing Larsson via trade could lead to a massive hole – I’ve posted that myself in this thread and last night . At the same time, I’m not as convinced as I once was that it would.

    You say the team “weathered the storm” when Larsson was out – they did more than that, they excelled, finding ways to win game after game after game including doing a great job of keeping goals against down – that was not just goaltending but the team as whole – Joel Persson treaded water in the 2nd pairing (Adam’s spot) and the other two pairs excelled.

    The team was carried by the two big stars, yes, however, the point of the trade is adding a player that would help take that load – add skill, speed, offensive acumen, to play in the top 6 – a more established and faster Yamamoto – look at the impact that player had.

    Lets also not forget that the two had to carry such a high load because no one else, save a James Neal PP heater, was contributing – the bottom six had like one goal in a month. That was not sustainable and has corrected.

    Yes, coming back from the injury and being behind the league is clearly a factor, however, Larsson hasn’t been the player you are describing for the better part of three seasons now. He’s not even killing penalties regularly.

    I don’t want to trade Adam Larsson either but, given ages, decline vs entering prime, organization depth at various positions and, importantly, contracts and team control, it would have to be explored if an option, in my opinion.

  143. Reja says:

    Sooner than later the jets are going to have to trade a forward for a D-man.

  144. jm363561 says:

    flyfish1168:
    I hope zack’s agent doesn’t think his client is zooming Connor

    Lol.

    Back in the day many posters thought a Connor- zoomed Maroon would get $3 – 4m. Even Chia wasn’t that stupid.

  145. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: With 10 full days off, I’d be heading somewhere farther than Mexico – SE Asia or Zanzibar and even Costa Rica – the wife and I hit Buenos Aires, Hong Kong and Sri Lanka for 7-9 days journeys – eff the jet lag/time change.

    I do imagine the boys stay closer than that mind you.

    Who gives a crap where you would go?
    Do you honestly not get how pretentious you sound when you post crap like this?

    • OriginalPouzar says:

      Do you think I give a crap what type of whiskey people drink?

      As a matter of fact, I’ve had some nice conversations on this platform with some posters about travel and some have expressed enjoyment of hearing about them.

      Sorry to bother your evening.

  146. Bling says:

    hunter1909: lol

    I dunno. The team is in playoff position unlike other depressing seasons.

    What are they supposed to do? Jettison a player who well might sign a good deal that benefits the team, or in other words(actually your exact ones lol) the team like Lowetide opinion is doomed to repeat its errors like some bad LSD trip?

    I’m not against signing Kassian, but it’s Holland who holds the cards, not him.

    If there really are 20 teams interested, like Stauffer says, why not deal him if his ask is 4×4? You have Benson and Yamamoto as top 6 options as of next season, plus Larsson as potential trade bait for another top 6 winger.

    UFA is unpredictable. Sure some guys strike it rich, but there are others — Gardiner and Pat Maroon come to mind — who don’t. Tons of stuff can happen between now and the end of the season. Injury. Bad luck. He could also revert back to whatever he was two seasons ago.

    If Kassian wants the security of a deal and likes playing with the best player in the world, he should pay for it.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would suggest that much of the fanbase would not take trading the 1RW in the middle of a playoff battle, while the team is playing well, due to potential future salary matters.

    We get it – many wouldn’t.

    I’m not one that think McDavid is on the verge of demanding out or anything like that but I don’ think the would look too fondly on such a move.

  148. Reja says:

    Bling: I’m not against signing Kassian, but it’s Holland who holds the cards, not him.

    If there really are 20 teams interested, like Stauffer says, why not deal him if his ask is 4×4? You have Benson and Yamamoto as top 6 options as of next season, plus Larsson as potential trade bait for another top 6 winger.

    UFA is unpredictable. Sure some guys strike it rich, but there are others — Gardiner and Pat Maroon come to mind — who don’t. Tons of stuff can happen between now and the end of the season. Injury. Bad luck. He could also revert back to whatever he was two seasons ago.

    If Kassian wants the security of a deal and likes playing with the best player in the world, he should pay for it.

    Way to lay down the hammer. What exactly is your take it or leave it offer?

  149. SVR says:

    4-0 Eagles. Condors really struggle to score this year it seems. Injuries/health of Marody has been an issue. What difference a year makes as it looked like he really had a chance.Malone, Currie, Gambardella all seem to be showing less offensively than last year. Only Benson on par with last years success. Hopefully we’ll see some better numbers in the second half for Maksimov and McLeod. If Benson gets called up, maybe Safin gets a shot. He has decent box cars in the ECHL

  150. Bling says:

    Reja: Way to lay down the hammer. What exactly is your take it or leave it offer?

    2.75 x 3

  151. Reja says:

    Bling: 2.75 x 3

    If he balks at the offer do you trade him or try renegotiating at the end of the year.

  152. Bling says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I would suggest that much of the fanbase would not take trading the 1RW in the middle of a playoff battle, while the team is playing well, due to potential future salary matters.

    We get it – many wouldn’t.

    I’m not one that think McDavid is on the verge of demanding out or anything like that but I don’ think the would look too fondly on such a move.

    McDavid and Drai like Kassian for sure, but as Tipp said, they like winning more. If you overpay Kassian, that means no Taylor Hall and it means (potentially) making difficult choices on Nurse and Bear this summer and Nuge next summer.

    Does it make any sense to suffer through a decade plus of no defensive depth and risk having to blow it because you payed Zack Kassian too much in the middle of his one good season? Shockingly, it’s even dumber than it sounds.

    Holland, by the way, has already gone full dumb ass, saying today that he is aware of the good playoff that Zack Kassian had three years ago. You can’t make this shit up, OP! I wish I did something 3 years ago for a period of two weeks that justified a 100 percent increase in my salary! 🙂

    And Oilers fans are tough as hell. Oilers fans have seen Gretzky and Messier traded. The dagger for me was Doug Weight getting traded on my birthday for Jochen Hecht! And Marty Reasoner. And Jan Horacek 🙂 How about Guerin being traded when him, Doug Weight, and Ryan Smyth were one of the best first lines in the entire NHL? Oh, and then there’s Taylor Hall.

    No Oilers fan is going to care about a complimentary guy with delusions of grandeur being sent out. If Holland thinks that, he doesn’t understand this market.

  153. Bling says:

    Reja,

    I would trade him. 20 teams interested? Cash in.

  154. Bling says:

    leadfarmer: Poor Strome, he spent 4 years dragging Lucic around on the Island and then had to do the same in Edmonton and even last year in Manhattan.
    I give Strome credit for developing good chemistry with Panarin, but don’t be fooled, it’s all Panarin

    WG posted Panarin’s GF%. It’s some ungodly number, like 70 percent or something bananas like that.

  155. jtblack says:

    Holland certainly left DET in a good spot.

    They are 12 pts behind the 30th place team.

    Yzerman brought in Fabbri. Otherwise it’s all Ken’s work.

  156. Bulging Twine says:

    Ducks win moving them further from the gravy odds of getting Lafranchise

    Jets lose big….Hellebuyck gets pulled…woodguy on to something??
    they lose their game in hand on us and remain one point back

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    Per Terry Jones, Holland says he’ll likely wait 10 more games to see if he’s a buyer or will stand pat. Unlikely to be a seller unless the wheels fall off.

    Also, doesn’t seem too happy with Kass’ penalties against the Flames:

    Ken Holland wants to deliver a message to Zack Kassian and his Edmonton Oilers teammates as they prepare to head to the All-Star break and return to play their Jan. 29 and Feb. 1 games against the Calgary Flames.

    “We have to make sure we play with discipline, that we play hard and that we play physical and do whatever we have to do to win,” said the new Edmonton Oilers general manager.

    “But we can’t take undisciplined, foolish penalties losing sight of the most important thing which is the end result.

    “You don’t want to have your players getting suspended.

    “We need our players in the lineup

  158. Bulging Twine says:

    McLeod with a goal and an assist

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bling: McDavid and Drai like Kassian for sure, but as Tipp said, they like winning more. If you overpay Kassian, that means no Taylor Hall and it means (potentially) making difficult choices on Nurse and Bear this summer and Nuge next summer.

    Does it make any sense to suffer through a decade plus of no defensive depth and risk having to blow it because you payed Zack Kassian too much in the middle of his one good season? Shockingly, it’s even dumber than it sounds.

    Holland, by the way, has already gone full dumb ass, saying today that he is aware of the good playoff that Zack Kassian had three years ago. You can’t make this shit up, OP! I wish I did something 3 years ago for a period of two weeks that justified a 100 percent increase in my salary! 🙂

    And Oilers fans are tough as hell. Oilers fans have seen Gretzky and Messier traded. The dagger for me was Doug Weight getting traded on my birthday for Jochen Hecht! And Marty Reasoner. And Jan Horacek 🙂 How about Guerin being traded when him, Doug Weight, and Ryan Smyth were one of the best first lines in the entire NHL? Oh, and then there’s Taylor Hall.

    No Oilers fan is going to care about a complimentary guy with delusions of grandeur being sent out. If Holland thinks that, he doesn’t understand this market.

    I’d didn’t say anything about overpaying this player and have been very much against that.

    I was speaking to not selling him off in the middle of a battle for the playoffs – nothing to do with over paying him.

  160. Bulging Twine says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Per Terry Jones, Holland says he’ll likely wait 10 more games to see if he’s a buyer or will stand pat.Unlikely to be a seller unless the wheels fall off.

    That’ll give him about 8 games to see how Benson adjusts/plays. (I’m thinking that they call him up after the initial Flames game)

  161. Bulging Twine says:

    Starrett was pulled in the first after allowing 3 goals

  162. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would think that Jesse would be willing to sign his qualifying offer next season with an NHL team that is not the Oilers.

    …if we let him.

  163. Bulging Twine says:

    McLeod +2 in a 6-2 loss

  164. Munny says:

    Bonino is 31, was never a good skater but is having his best year, points-wise. He’s also a LH shot an—ideally—we’d want a RH centerman somewhere on the roster.

    I feel like we’d be buying high and I don’ts like acquiring guys who will shortly be 32 (April) and don’t have good wheels.

    Signing Kass for 3 or 4 for example, doesn’t bother me because he can skate and is only 29 this year.

    Bones is also an American and has never played in Canada. I’d need to be sure he and his family would be happy living here. His contract has another year to run at $4.1M.

  165. v4ance says:

    Arch@Archaeologuy

    Kassian is shooting 18.1% this year and had a career average of 11.2% before 2019-2020.

    I can’t stress enough how dangerous this is. Changing NOTHING but his shooting percentage to career average yields just 8 goals playing with McDavid.

    This is playing with Fire.

    ***
    Want to guess which Oiler forward has the highest PDO on the team?

    Hint: It’s Zack Kassian 1.029

    ***
    It has nothing to do with loving the player or what has happened this season. It’s about using a critical eye to assess risk and reward for the future based on the evidence in front of us.

    I love Sam Gagner for example. I wouldn’t offer him a contract over 1M moving forward.

    ***

    Alex Chiasson shooting percentages 2012-18: 11.5% roughly 10-12 goals per 82 games
    AAV on contracts: 600k to 1.2 million

    Everyone knows Chiasson is basically a 3rd/4th liner
    Alex Chiasson shooting percentage 2018-19: 17.9% 22 goals
    Holland gives him $2.15M x 2 thinking he’s basically a 3rd liner who can be a top 6

    Alex Chiasson shooting percentage 2019-20 since signing new contract: 9% on pace for… 12 goals

    ***

    Using basic analytics with a shred of intelligence and we can see Kassian will regress just like Chiasson… or Maroon or Bolland or all those other 3rd liners who had one year bumps in their shooting percentages right before they went UFA.

    Holland is paid multimullions of dollars to learn from experience. I don’t think he’s learning.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      +1 Great post.

      I may be one of Kassian’s bigest fans / supporter on htis site.

      And i agree with everything in this post.

  166. Bulging Twine says:

    2 points move McDavid into 9th all-time for the Oilers ahead of Horcoff

    Klefbom is tied with Kevin McClelland for 49th.
    One more point and he ties Risto Siltanen

    (half of Siltanen’s points were made when he wound up with the big slapper from the point and missed the net and it made a loud thud or maybe more like a bang on the boards, everyone at the arena and watching from home said, “whoa”, then Gretzky got the puck and passed to Kurri who scored – iirc)

  167. Bulging Twine says:

    Munny:
    Bonino is 31, was never a good skater but is having his best year, points-wise. He’s also a LH shot an—ideally—we’d want a RH centerman somewhere on the roster.

    I feel like we’d be buying high and I don’ts like acquiring guys who will shortly be 32 (April) and don’t have good wheels.

    Signing Kass for 3 or 4 for example, doesn’t bother me because he can skate and is only 29 this year.

    Bones is also an American and has never played in Canada.I’d need to be sure he and his family would be happy living here.His contract has another year to run at $4.1M.

    32 seems to be the new 35

    recently it seemed like when a player hit 35 you would watch closely for the decline year to year and maybe they’d make it to 37

    seems like that’s 32 now. maybe 33. Not too many make it to their 35 year old season anymore. There are only 11 in the league now and one is being sent down tomorrow.
    (11 that started the season 35 +)

    Edit: this is for FW’s

  168. Bulging Twine says:

    v4ance:
    Arch@Archaeologuy

    Kassian is shooting 18.1% this year and had a career average of 11.2% before 2019-2020.


    I can’t stress enough how dangerous this is. Changing NOTHING but his shooting percentage to career average yields just 8 goals playing with McDavid.

    This is playing with Fire.

    ***
    Want to guess which Oiler forward has the highest PDO on the team?

    Hint: It’s Zack Kassian 1.029

    ***
    It has nothing to do with loving the player or what has happened this season. It’s about using a critical eye to assess risk and reward for the future based on the evidence in front of us.

    I love Sam Gagner for example. I wouldn’t offer him a contract over 1M moving forward.

    ***

    Alex Chiasson shooting percentages2012-18: 11.5%roughly 10-12 goals per 82 games
    AAV on contracts: 600k to 1.2 million

    Everyone knows Chiasson is basically a 3rd/4th liner
    Alex Chiasson shooting percentage 2018-19: 17.9% 22 goals
    Holland gives him $2.15M x 2 thinking he’s basically a 3rd liner who can be a top 6

    Alex Chiasson shooting percentage 2019-20 since signing new contract: 9% on pace for… 12 goals

    ***

    Using basic analytics with a shred of intelligence and we can see Kassian will regress just like Chiasson… or Maroon or Bolland or all those other 3rd liners who had one year bumps in their shooting percentages right before they went UFA.

    Holland is paid multimullions of dollars to learn from experience.I don’t think he’s learning.

    Wow.
    Nicley laid out.

    What’s the max that you would go with Kassian?

    • v4ance says:

      Honestly, I thought $2.75 mil per 2 years was fine but Woodguy laid out an expert analysis on Twitter and convinced me that $2.5 x 2 was good enough.

      ***

      It’s like we forget Maroon performed like a 1st liner beside McDavid and was a 2nd/3rd liner without

      Then Rattie was a 1st liner beside McDavid then an NHL/AHL tweener without

      Then Caggulia was a 1st liner beside McDavid then a 3rd liner without

      Now Kassian is a 1st liner beside McDavid and a 3rd liner without him.

      I don’t understand why people can’t see the pattern. The funny part is the only one who doesn’t look like a 1st liner beside McDavid is Lucic. He just suppressed offence both ways.

      ***

      Honestly I wish our GM would learn that he can make “Pump and Dump” a yearly thing. Ask the coach to play an expiring UFA on McDavid’s wing. Trade said pending UFA for a 2nd rounder instead of a 4th rounder that he’d have gotten before. Watch as opposing mainstream media wonder why the offence dried up since the trade?

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      I agree with everything Arch@Archaeologuy says about the Kassian contract.

      I would still pay him a $2.5 AAV even if it meant giving him term

      $3m $3m $2.5m $1.5m ….. $10m for 4 years

      It would not be a disaster to let him walk at anything more than 3×3

      Holland definitley has the leverage here IMO. I hope he plays hardball. Take it to the summer if you have to.

      He’s done a great job so far in moving out a bad anchor / almost untradable contract and of signing a promising young Dman to a team friendly contract. This is a different kettle of fish. Not overpaying a veteran player.

      At the right price $2.5 AVV Kassian is part of the solution.

      We wait.

  169. innercitysmytty says:

    I find it pretty interesting how people chastise a GM over a deal that is not even signed yet. Bob is certainly a mouthpiece for the organization but I think it’s far from a guarantee that he knows the exact deal that will be signed. I agree fully that if Zack likes it here and is in a great situation he should be taking a discount and not being overpaid ie 2×2 or something is more than fair. But maybe let the deal actually be signed and the ink dry before tarring and feathering a GM who recently signed a nice piece on the backend to a very team friendly deal.

  170. Bulging Twine says:

    northerndancer,

    hahaha

    I wonder if he can catch Buchberger?
    11 minuses to go

    will he be here long enough?

  171. Bulging Twine says:

    I would love to see an Oiler Flame playoff
    but only if we win
    I couldn’t handle losing that one

  172. Numenius says:

    Cassandra,

    If a trade is to be had with the Leafs, I’d guess the pieces are Caleb Jones for one of Kapanen, Johnsson, or Kerfoot. Likely the Oil would want Kapanen. Then add as necessary to offset cap hit.

    I think I could live with something along those lines, as much as I’d love to keep Caleb.

    Though I’d prefer a young, cost controlled 3C.

  173. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bling:
    Reja,

    I would trade him. 20 teams interested? Cash in.

    I’m not sure the rest of the team would be thrilled trading him while they’re still in the hunt for playoffs.

  174. SwedishPoster says:

    Someone mentioned Lehkonen above. I think he’s a far better target than Kapanen, not as fast but still a fine skater, Kapanen has a better wrister but Lehkonen imo is smarter, better defensively 5v5 and is likely to be cheaper since he’s yet to find the next gear offensively but he has the skill to add more in that end. I think Montreal is looking for young D so they could be a good trade partner.

    I don’t like trading Larsson for Kapanen. Larsson hasn’t found much consistency in his game after his injury but imo has shown in the games he’s been on that he can still contribute a lot. I watched a bit of a Jets game the other night and their play by play guy likened getting injured early in the season and then trying to get back with trying to get on a moving bus which I thought was fitting, just so hard to find your game when the season is at full speed. The issues he’s had this year are different than the ghost of a player he was last season. I think his good games have shown a better more mobile player who’s looking to refine his game and the bad ones have been more due to a lack of timing. He has his strengths and weaknesses and once the up and coming RHD starts to really push you can trade him but at this point it will risk putting young D in bad spots which could both kill the season and hurt their development. Much better to throw a guy like Larsson to the wolves.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      +1 And I even think you are being conservative here in assessing his value to the team.

  175. Ribs says:

    It’s a small item, no one will notice. At this point in January, I write the first trade deadline piece. If the Oilers are sellers, the title is “Sale on Sail on, Sailer” and if the team is a buyer, or could be a buyer, we see the title above. It’s way more fun this way.

    WAAAAAYYYY MORE FUN.

  176. v4ance says:

    innercitysmytty:
    I find it pretty interesting how people chastise a GM over a deal that is not even signed yet. Bob is certainly a mouthpiece for the organization but I think it’s far from a guarantee that he knows the exact deal that will be signed. I agree fully that if Zack likes it here and is in a great situation he should be taking a discount and not being overpaid ie 2×2 or something is more than fair. But maybe let the deal actually be signed and the ink dry before tarring and feathering a GM who recently signed a nice piece on the backend to a very team friendly deal.

    We’re chastising Holland because if the leaked details of the pending contract are correct, it reveals that our GM hasn’t used analytics to improve his decision making. Using old school “wisdom” and gut instincts is no way to run a multi-million dollar operation but that’s what the evidence is pointing to…

    We are cap maxed and we need to make good decisions repeatedly to make the most efficient use of cap dollars. The more bad contracts, the less flexibly we can assemble a competitive roster. Just look at this past offseason! When Holland couldn’t afford Connelly or Burakovsky, he had to make multiple low dollar gambles on guys like Granlund, Haas, Nygard, etc.

  177. Munny says:

    BRING ME TYLER ENNIS!

    this all-star break, plse ‘n thx.

  178. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Someone mentioned Lehkonen above. I think he’s a far better target than Kapanen, not as fast but still a fine skater, Kapanen has a better wrister but Lehkonen imo is smarter, better defensively 5v5 and is likely to be cheaper since he’s yet to find the next gear offensively but he has the skill to add more in that end. I think Montreal is looking for young D so they could be a good trade partner.

    I don’t like trading Larsson for Kapanen. Larsson hasn’t found much consistency in his game after his injury but imo has shown in the games he’s been on that he can still contribute a lot. I watched a bit of a Jets game the other night and their play by play guy likened getting injured early in the season and then trying to get back with trying to get on a moving bus which I thought was fitting, just so hard to find your game when the season is at full speed. The issues he’s had this year are different than the ghost of a player he was last season. I think his good games have shown a better more mobile player who’s looking to refine his game and the bad ones have been more due toa lack of timing. He has his strengths and weaknesses and once the up and coming RHD starts to really push you can trade him but at this point it will risk putting young D in bad spots which could both kill the season and hurt their development. Much better to throw a guy like Larsson to the wolves.

    Get em to throw in Armia while we’re at it! I’d throw a deal sending Puljujarvi and a D prospect in a package with some cap going back (Gagner or Chiasson) for those two. Might even be worth exploring the cost for Domi while we’re there!

  179. Ryan says:

    v4ance: likes it

    Good posts.

    I don’t have the energy to fight the good fight here over looming bad contracts.

    I will reiterate that last season before he started playing with Connor, Kassian had 4 points in 41 games (Kassian himself had only played 38, due to healthy scratches). That’s when his agent got permission to talk to other teams about a trade.

    4 points in half a season playing in the bottom six. Healthy scratched.

    Even in a best case scenario, factoring in regression of this seasons shooting percent, player aging curves, and Kassian eventually getting replaced on Connor’s wing and falling out of the top six, Kassian’s next contract will be a disaster. Given that his next contract won’t likely be in the best case scenario, it’ll likely be worse.

    I had previously remarked that Holland would have been better as a POHO with a more progressive analytical minded GM under him.

  180. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Perhaps Strome without Lucic and/or Puljujarvi and/or bottom 6 players in general is a different animal?

    Perhaps. But the Stromes tend to play amazingly well with top talent and poorly without it.

  181. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    v4ance:
    Honestly, I thought $2.75 mil per 2 years was fine but Woodguy laid out an expert analysis on Twitter and convinced me that $2.5 x 2 was good enough.

    ***

    It’s like we forget Maroon performed like a 1st liner beside McDavid and was a 2nd/3rd liner without

    Then Rattie was a 1st liner beside McDavid then an NHL/AHL tweener without

    Then Caggulia was a 1st liner beside McDavid then a 3rd liner without

    Now Kassian is a 1st liner beside McDavid and a 3rd liner without him.

    I don’t understand why people can’t see the pattern.The funny part is the only one who doesn’t look like a 1st liner beside McDavid is Lucic.He just suppressed offence both ways.

    ***

    Honestly I wish our GM would learn that he can make “Pump and Dump” a yearly thing.Ask the coach to play an expiring UFA on McDavid’s wing.Trade said pending UFA for a 2nd rounder instead of a 4th rounder that he’d have gotten before. Watch as opposing mainstream media wonder why the offence dried up since the trade?

    Seriously. It is so obvious to basically everyone. Be the man KH, hold steady….

  182. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Someone mentioned Lehkonen above. I think he’s a far better target than Kapanen, not as fast but still a fine skater, Kapanen has a better wrister but Lehkonen imo is smarter, better defensively 5v5 and is likely to be cheaper since he’s yet to find the next gear offensively but he has the skill to add more in that end. I think Montreal is looking for young D so they could be a good trade partner.

    I don’t like trading Larsson for Kapanen. Larsson hasn’t found much consistency in his game after his injury but imo has shown in the games he’s been on that he can still contribute a lot. I watched a bit of a Jets game the other night and their play by play guy likened getting injured early in the season and then trying to get back with trying to get on a moving bus which I thought was fitting, just so hard to find your game when the season is at full speed. The issues he’s had this year are different than the ghost of a player he was last season. I think his good games have shown a better more mobile player who’s looking to refine his game and the bad ones have been more due toa lack of timing. He has his strengths and weaknesses and once the up and coming RHD starts to really push you can trade him but at this point it will risk putting young D in bad spots which could both kill the season and hurt their development. Much better to throw a guy like Larsson to the wolves.

    Barring any long-term injury, Larsson’s value to this team next year is going to very substantial. Veteran RHD. And it is next year and the following years where this team should really be able to push as a serious contender. This year is about sorting out the pieces and making the playoffs and getting a taste of that and some more playoff experience.

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