Even in the Quietest Moments

The Edmonton Oilers will be spending hours each day over the next while discussing the trade deadline and summer. The season has been a great success so far, but there are many miles to go. How many UFA’s will return? We received some news on that yesterday. How many RFA’s? I expect to see a great deal of movement. Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: What do Connor McDavid’s best lines tell us about his optimal linemates?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: I was an AHL coach for a day: Here’s what I learned
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers player poll: From the serious to the silly, the players weigh in on best dressed, most superstitious and more
  • Thomas Drance: Inside how ‘Okanagan boy’ Ken Holland helped bring back the Penticton Young Stars tournament
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers minor-league defenceman Brandon Manning suspended five games for racial slur
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • Lowetide: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
  • Lowetide:  Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers make a smart two-year bet on Caleb Jones, who has done nothing but improve
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 3 things from the latest Oilers win: A lacrosse goal, Mike Smith’s resurgence and Connor McDavid’s new linemate
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A defiant Zack Kassian issues his latest salvo against Matthew Tkachuk: ‘He messed with the wrong guy’
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
  • Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
  • LowetideKen Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019

OILERS 50-MAN ROSTER

There are 48 names and two slide rules. Edmonton has (by my count) 15 unrestricted and 11 restricted free agents. Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts on Wednesday named “Joakim Nygard, Josh Archibald and Riley Sheahan” as possibly being extended, along with the impending Kassian deal.

If we take each category (signed, slide, UFA, RFA) and guess on the summer, it’s possible to find the range in terms of numbers. That gives us an idea about how much room Holland has to wheel.

Among the signed group, I think Holland might try to find new homes for Jujhar Khaira, Alex Chiasson and one of Adam Larsson or Kris Russell. Current number of players signed for next season: 22.

The slide group has two men, Philip Broberg and Olivier Rodrigue. I think the goalie turns pro, unsure about the Swedish defenceman. Current slides signed for next season: 2.

The UFA group has some clarity after Friedman’s thoughts yesterday. He named Zack Kassian, Joakim Nygard, Josh Archibald and Riley Sheahan, and we can probably add Mike Smith, Gaetan Haas, Patrick Russell and Josh Currie.

That means Tomas Jurco, Markus Granlund, Kyle Brodziak, Brad Malone, Sam Gagner, Brandon Manning and Keegan Lowe would be out. Meaning Edmonton would bring back only eight of 16 unrestricted free agents.

The RFA group numbers 11, and there’s real guesswork here. Ken Holland isn’t attached to these players (for the most part) so we might get a few surprises. I’d suggest Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Matt Benning, William Lagesson, Logan Day will be retained. Meaning Nolan Vesey, Colby Cave, Cameron Hebig, Joel Persson, Ryan Mantha and Shane Starrett would be set free. Meaning Edmonton would bring back five RFA’s.

So, adding everything up: 22 signed, 2 slides, 8 unrestricted and five restricted free agents. Total: 37. Holland may not have enough walking around money, but he could sign a ton of free agents from college, junior and Europe.

One final item: Drafted players who the team may want to sign. This might be the most interesting item all summer, or at least has the potential to be newsworthy. Jesse Puljuarvi may not enjoy the idea of spending another winter in Finland, Anton Slepyshev (I believe Matty reported on this) would be a player of interest, Raphael Lavoie is tearing up the Quebec league and Filip Berglund is spiking in Sweden. I had anticipated Aapeli Rasanen joining the list, but a little birdie told me he has moved to wing. Less value there than if he was a center. If Holland sees him as a pivot, he would be a solid target.

CONDORS 2019-20

Stuart Skinner is absolutely killing it in January. In eight games, 2.45 goals against average and .929 save percentage. He’s winning the starting AHL job in real time. Impressive.

Evan Bouchard’s pass last night to start a sequence that ended in the Cam Hebig goal was pure precision. My goodness that’s talent.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running with fabulous guests and much to discuss, TSN1260. Paul Sir from The Basketball Show talks Zion’s fourth quarter, Olympic Gold medalist Cammi Granato talks All-Star weekend and the women’s showcase, plus NHL scouting. Frank Seravalli from TSN talks trade deadline and All-Star weekend. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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232 Responses to "Even in the Quietest Moments"

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  1. OilClog says:

    I think if Holland walks into a negotiation with Kassian’s agent, Rick Curran… who just happens to work with the agency that Connor McDavid is represented by… Trying to use Archibald’s 2 games as fill in as some sort of negotiation advantage, not too sure if that leads to a healthy long term relationship in the bigger picture. But hey maybe they’ll cave, pull a oh shit you got us.

  2. Nit64 says:

    Nothing like the smell of napalm in the morning or Oil blogs. Every injury there’s a range of possible short term and long term consequences. If no surgery was even an option that’s good news in most places in spite of the extra level of uncertainty involved.

  3. defmn says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I says “Pardon”!That’s a “Kinger Cut and Paste Special”…

    Yeah, I thought of you when I read it. 😉

  4. godot10 says:

    OilClog:
    I think if Holland walks into a negotiation with Kassian’s agent, Rick Curran… who just happens to work with the agency that Connor McDavid is represented by… Trying to use Archibald’s 2 games as fill in as some sort of negotiation advantage, not too sure if that leads to a healthy long term relationship in the bigger picture. But hey maybe they’ll cave, pull a oh shit you got us.

    You have seen Woodguy’s analysis of every winger who has played with McDavid. Kassian is meh…Nothing special… In the Nicole of the pack.

  5. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Thx
    It seems to me like top level goalers are taken high. The issue certainly is that it’s very hard to project outcomes.

    But that is also hard for other positions as well, if not as hard.

    I think if you have good intel and there is a goaler that seems elite I’d take him if there aren’t more pressing needs.

    Elite goalies are as much a backbone as anyone but hard to find. Which I believe is why goalies have been often taken in later rounds.

    So kudos to Parkatti in trying to refine the look into what quality looks like. The team that gets that down first will have a HUGE advantage.

    And for the love of hockey please Ken invest in the best goalie coach you can get!!!

    Top 10 goaltenders by save percentage this season (minimum 20 games played)

    Darcy Kuemper .929 6th round

    Tristan Jarry .929 2nd round

    Ben Bishop .927 3rd round

    Anton Khudobin .927 7th round

    Elvis Merzlikens .926 3rd round

    Tukka Rask .925 1st round

    Thomas Griess .926 3rd round

    Pavel Francouz .925 Undrafted

    Robin Lehner .922 2nd round

    James Reimer .921 4th round

  6. Yegfoundation says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Good Points.Where’s Godot and what did you do to him?

    GODOT has always been this good.

  7. YKOil says:

    Hrmmm…

    Bury Manning’s salary saves $1.075m less ~ $750k for replacement = $325k saved

    Buy-out Gagner saves ~ $2.1m + Mannings $325k = ~ 2.4m+

    Sekera buy-out saved $3.0m

    It was doable. That said, I did want Sekera’s spot for a d-man.

    Original sin(s) remains buy-out of Pouliot, signing of Lucic, buy-out of Gryba, etc. With a few, admittedly awesome, exceptions, Chia royally f&*ked-over this teams Cap management.

  8. tileguy says:

    Perhaps Kevin’s time in purgatory is up.

  9. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: Top 10 goaltenders by save percentage this season (minimum 20 games played)

    Darcy Kuemper .929 6th round

    Tristan Jarry .929 2nd round

    Ben Bishop .927 3rd round

    Anton Khudobin .927 7th round

    Elvis Merzlikens .926 3rd round

    Tukka Rask .925 1st round

    Thomas Griess .926 3rd round

    Pavel Francouz .925 Undrafted

    Robin Lehner .922 2nd round

    James Reimer .921 4th round

    Thanks for doing that, I was thinking more on a career level.

    I’ve never been one for games played comparisons that we see for skaters. 250 4th line minutes aren’t as much a success for the team as is it for the player.

    I want to know who the impact or top end players are and what is the route they show up on.

    I mentioned the goalers I did because they have had sustained high level success, even if Price has faded in the last few, albeit on a weak team.

    In the end, if there is a high end goalie in the first round that is more than a good player, and there is no BPA that is clear, and especially if you need a goaler, because it’s a first round pick is not a reason to avoid making the selection.

    Edit – not 4th line minutes, I meant games.

  10. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: I would say that Connolly is NOT a good comp for Kass. Connolly has a history of production even while playing on the 3rd line in Washington with Lars Eller as his center, Kassian doesn’t produce unless he’s with McDavid.

    I’m not enthused with the idea that Kassian may get 4 X $3.5M. And I think it’s clear that Connolly is a better goal scorer than Kassian, no debate there (agree he’s not a great comp).

    It’s also true that Kassian has had relatively poor /60 scoring rates for a couple of years before this one. But this talk of Kassian not scoring at all without McDavid is real hyperbole, and is really only something that happened last season.

    Kassian’s 5v5 P/60 by year, since he’s been a semi-regular:
    12-13 1.04
    13-14 1.91
    14-15 1.82
    15-16 1.12
    16-17 1.66
    17-18 1.29
    18-19 1.32
    19-20 2.33

    He’s only dipped to a 4th line rate once in the past 7 years. Whatever you think Kassian is worth he’s actually done a really decent job of providing secondary scoring through most of his career.

    I’d like to reiterate that this is not an argument for signing Kassian to a big deal, just some pushback to the idea that Kassian “doesn’t produce unless he’s with McDavid”.

  11. Reja says:

    v4ance: cap

    I’ll go with Keith on that one.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil:
    Hrmmm…

    Bury Manning’s salary saves $1.075m less ~ $750k for replacement = $325k saved

    Buy-out Gagner saves ~ $2.1m + Mannings $325k = ~ 2.4m+

    Sekera buy-out saved $3.0m

    It was doable.That said, I did want Sekera’s spot for a d-man.

    Original sin(s) remains buy-out of Pouliot, signing of Lucic, buy-out of Gryba, etc.With a few, admittedly awesome, exceptions, Chia royally f&*ked-over this teams Cap management.

    What about the Gagner replacement on the roster for $700K plus?

  13. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: You have seen Woodguy’s analysis of every winger who has played with McDavid.Kassian is meh…Nothing special… In the Nicole of the pack.

    How about how Connor feels? I would wager having a player that has his back means something.

    Lucic was suppose to be that, but turns out he picks his spots.

    The only defence against Connor is a physical one. He is a rare player. They get in his way , pick hook back and hold him, without a consequence from the refs.

    Until that changes perhaps an on ice answer is necessary.

  14. Reja says:

    duct tape and foil:
    A couple of things wrt Kassian:

    1) comparing his performance over the last 12 months to prior periods is pretty much pointless (hey I can do alliteration!). He had a substance abuse problem and his life was out of control until he signed with the Oilers. After he was clean it was very clear that the Thoroughly Mediocre Coach had no intension of playing him with anybody aside from studs like Letestu and Brodziak on the 4th line. Didn’t matter how he played. Since he’s cleaned up and got a supportive coach, he’s been uniformly solid in whatever role he’s been given. The recent sample size is small but comparing the two situations is apples and oranges.

    2) the other thing is that some people on this site enthusiastically adopt the McNamara fallacy without understanding or reservation. This involves making decision solely on quantitative observations and ignoring everything else because alternative information (often qualitative) cannot be proven. Kass has some significant intangibles (and that word is not a pejorative in my books).

    From Daniel Yankelovich who wrote on the topic, “the first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can’t be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can’t be measured easily really isn’t important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can’t be easily measured really doesn’t exist. This is suicide.”

    All that said, my limit would be $10 million over 3 years. Giving the team that saved your career (and maybe your life) a small break seems like the gracious thing to do.

    That’s my prediction 3×3:33=10 million but I imagine he’s gunning for 4 years at 12 million that’s my final guess. Hopefully it’s signed before the Calgary rematches where a happy and motivated Kass scores a couple of big goals and takes care of other business. If Holland’s in the signing mood lock up Archie at 1.25 a year I like watching this player he’s got heart.

  15. RedNed says:

    Same catchy bit used here downunder as a station ‘logo tune’ for probably 25 years (NWS9).

  16. pts2pndr says:

    You have no way of knowing that. It is really easy to bat 300 when you never have to face major league pitching. Legend in your own mind.

  17. pts2pndr says:

    Keep riding that pony. If you repeat it enough it becomes fact. I respect your passion for the team but on Kassian you have in my opinion crossed the line.

  18. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: How about how Connor feels? I would wager having a player that has his back means something.

    Lucic was suppose to be that, but turns out he picks his spots.

    The only defence against Connor is a physical one. He is a rare player. They get in his way , pick hook back and hold him, without a consequence from the refs.

    Until that changes perhaps an on ice answer is necessary.

    Kassian hasn’t even glanced Giordano’s way. How exactly has he had McDavid’s back. Losing control against Tkachuk means that he is even more useless as a protector since his every move will be scrutinized.

    There hasn’t been any less hacking and stashing since Kassian has been moved to Connor’s line.

  19. Bulging Twine says:

    Sorry for posting so much – my friends wouldn’t really be interested in this stuff – but I was really surprised to find that 48% of FW’s that have played in at least 35 games this season were drafted in the first round.

    Spurred by Scungilli Slushy’s question about upper tier goalers I was thinking I should ask that of the FW’s. Cuz why am I lumping Gaetan Haas in with RNH.

    To discover where top 6 FW’s come from I narrowed it down to FW’s who have played 35+ games and 15:00 minutes per game.

    There are 190 (6.1 per team)

    116 were drafted in the first round 61.1%!

    26 in round 2 – 13.7%

    17 in round 3 – 8.9%

    7 in round 4 – 3.7%

    3 in round 5 – 1.6%

    7 in round 6 – 3.7%

    4 in round 7 – 2.1%

    10 undrafted – 5.3%

    61% of top 6 FW’s come from the first round. That is a high number. It drops all the way down to 13.7% in round 2.

    It makes me see that the hockey scouts are doing better than I thought they were as they pretty much have the players figured out at an early age.

    1st round, Free agency, trade, or if lucky the 2nd or 3rd round is where the Oilers will have to get their missing top 6 FW.

    If Benson makes it there…cudos to him and the organization he’s beat the odds.

  20. Bulging Twine says:

    For Defencemen

    20 minute a nighters:

    94 have played in at least 20 games and 20:00+ per game. 3 per team

    Drafted:

    45 – Round 1 – 47.9%
    17 – Round 2 – 18.1%
    8 – Round 3 – 8.5%
    9 – Round 4 – 9.6%
    3 – Round 5 – 3.2%
    4 – Round 6 – 4.3%
    2 – Round 7 – 2.1%
    6 – Undrafted – 6.4%

    Less % in the 1st round than FW’s but still a large proportion come from here.
    A higher % found in the 2nd than FW’s
    Round 3 basically the same
    Round 4 is interesting, almost 6% more found here than at FW

    Oilers have one of those 3 fifth rounders playing more than 20 minutes a game. What a huge competitive edge that is to hit on a 5th rounder. And what a player he is.

  21. Bulging Twine says:

    The biggest takeaway:

    1st Round picks are massive

  22. ArmchairGM says:

    Bank Shot: If GMs had younger in their prime players to sign, they wouldn’t throw a bunch of money at free agents.

    Kyle Dubas sends his regards.

  23. ArmchairGM says:

    who:
    I’m going to wait for the details before I get too upset over Kassians next contract. But I can’t help shaking my head over some of the opinions floated here.
    Opinion #1.
    Kassian doesn’t produce at even strength unless he plays with McDavid.
    How do we know?
    Kassian was a drunk until he got to Edmonton. Before McDavid, Kassian had the “privilege” of playing with Mark Letestu and the ghost of Kyle Brodziak. People say that Connelly managed to score with Lars Eller as his center, but Eller is a hell of a lot better player than those two deadbeats.
    Opinion #2
    Anyone can score with McDavid and therefore Josh Archibald can replace Kassian.
    Maybe? But I’ll need to see more than 2 good games with McDavid before I’m convinced. In the 1st half ofthe season Archibald struggled to control the puck or make a simple play. He brings a lot of speed and energy, and is an excellent penalty killer, but long term, on Mcdavids wing, seems like a stretch.
    Opinion #3
    Kassian is about to fall off a cliff.
    Again, maybe?
    He’s also a much better skater than most power forwards, with no history of leg injuries. He could just as easily have 4 or 5 good years left in him.
    Bottom line.
    Kassian is big,can skate, can make and take a pass, and is a possession monster in the ozone. He’s not a natural goal scorer, but are we sure we can replace him with a 3 to 4 million dollar UFA?

    I guess you missed my post up near the top…

  24. ArmchairGM says:

    😀

  25. ArmchairGM says:

    Jethro Tull: The Oilers senior management rolled the dice to sell tickets and employ people under the pretense that there was nothing wrong with Connor. Shameful.

    So THAT’S why it was so important that nothing leaked – there were millions and millions of dollars at stake!

  26. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: I’m not enthused with the idea that Kassian may get 4 X $3.5M. And I think it’s clear that Connolly is a better goal scorer than Kassian, no debate there (agree he’s not a great comp).

    It’s also true that Kassian has had relatively poor /60 scoring rates for a couple of years before this one. But this talk of Kassian not scoring at all without McDavid is real hyperbole, and is really only something that happened last season.

    Kassian’s 5v5 P/60 by year, since he’s been a semi-regular:
    12-13 1.04
    13-14 1.91
    14-15 1.82
    15-16 1.12
    16-17 1.66
    17-18 1.29
    18-19 1.32
    19-20 2.33

    He’s only dipped to a 4th line rate once in the past 7 years. Whatever you think Kassian is worth he’s actually done a really decent job of providing secondary scoring through most of his career.

    I’d like to reiterate that this is not an argument for signing Kassian to a big deal, just some pushback to the idea that Kassian “doesn’t produce unless he’s with McDavid”.

    He produces – most years – at a third line rate. Which is a nice player to have, but not at top-6 money. A 3rd liner who doesn’t PK is not an especially valuable player. In fact, the Oilers have a good comp already on the roster: Alex Chiasson. Looking back at the past 3.5 years, here are Chasser’s 5v5 P/60 next to your list for Kassian’s for comparison’s sake:

    Year Kassian — Chiasson

    16-17 1.66 — 1.28
    17-18 1.29 — 1.27
    18-19 1.32 — 1.25
    19-20 2.33 — 0.78

    Broadly similar – except, of course, for this year. And yet Holland was widely panned in the summer past for giving Chiasson a $2.15M x 2 contract, as it was considered an overpay. We should look at goals, too, because lets be honest: both players are getting paid to put the puck in the net and provide physicality, neither are considered playmakers, neither are especially good defensively, neither PK. Chiasson has a record of PP success, Kassian does not.

    Year Kassian — Chiasson (5v5 G/60)

    16-17 0.48 — 0.70
    17-18 0.57 — 0.64
    18-19 0.69 — 0.75
    19-20 1.16 — 0.39

  27. ArmchairGM says:

    Bulging Twine:
    For Defencemen

    20 minute a nighters:

    94 have played in at least 20 games and 20:00+ per game.3 per team

    Drafted:

    45 – Round 1 – 47.9%
    17 – Round 2 – 18.1%
    8– Round 3 – 8.5%
    9 – Round 4 – 9.6%
    3 – Round 5 – 3.2%
    4 – Round 6 – 4.3%
    2 – Round 7 – 2.1%
    6 – Undrafted – 6.4%

    Less % in the 1st round than FW’s but still a large proportion come from here.
    A higher % found in the 2nd than FW’s
    Round 3 basically the same
    Round 4 is interesting, almost 6% more found here than at FW

    Oilers have one of those 3 fifth rounders playing more than 20 minutes a game.What a huge competitive edge that is to hit on a 5th rounder.And what a player he is.

    Thanks for doing all this work, BT – very interesting and much appreciated!

  28. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: He produces – most years – at a third line rate.

    5v5/60 rates last season were:
    1st line >2.01
    2nd line 2.01-1.64
    3rd line 1.64-1.24
    4th line <1.24

    Kassian has only failed to score at a 3rd line rate once in the past 7 seasons. His last seasons by scoring rate:
    1st line – 1
    2nd line – 3
    3rd line – 2
    4th line – 1

    ArmchairGM: Which is a nice player to have, but not at top-6 money.

    Sure, likely not.

    ArmchairGM:
    In fact, the Oilers have a good comp already on the roster: Alex Chiasson. Looking back at the past 3.5 years, here are Chasser’s 5v5 P/60 next to your list for Kassian’s for comparison’s sake:

    YearKassian — Chiasson

    16-17 1.66 — 1.28
    17-18 1.29 — 1.27
    18-19 1.32 — 1.25
    19-20 2.33 — 0.78

    Broadly similar – except, of course, for this year.

    If that looks “broadly similar” to you then maybe Connolly is a decent comp for Kassian after all?

    Year – Kassian – Connolly
    13-14 1.91 – only 11 GP 0.51/60
    14-15 1.82 – 1.56
    15-16 1.12 – 1.29
    16-17 1.66 – 1.98
    17-18 1.29 – 1.74
    18-19 1.32 – 2.66
    19-20 2.33 – 2.13

    I don’t actually think the Kassian-Connolly numbers are that similar. Likewise the Kassian-Chiasson numbers – the 2 players P/60 literally don’t even overlap…

    As I said I don’t want to give Kassian $3M+ with term. But a lot of folks are painting Kassian way short of reality in trying argue what figure and term he should get on this next deal.

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jesus dude how often do I have to say it’s not during the interview phase and at the contract negotiation phase.

  30. Jethro Tull says:

    Follow the money. A wise person once told me that if you are wondering why someone or some company made a strange decision, then follow the money.

  31. godot10 says:

    jp: 5v5/60 rates last season were:
    1st line >2.01
    2nd line 2.01-1.64
    3rd line 1.64-1.24
    4th line <1.24

    Kassian has only failed to score at a 3rd line rate once in the past 7 seasons. His last seasons by scoring rate:
    1st line – 1
    2nd line – 3
    3rd line – 2
    4th line – 1

    Sure, likely not.

    If that looks “broadly similar” to you then maybe Connolly is a decent comp for Kassian after all?

    Year – Kassian – Connolly
    13-14 1.91 – only 11 GP 0.51/60
    14-15 1.82 – 1.56
    15-16 1.12 – 1.29
    16-17 1.66 – 1.98
    17-18 1.29 – 1.74
    18-19 1.32 – 2.66
    19-20 2.33 – 2.13

    I don’t actually think the Kassian-Connolly numbers are that similar. Likewise the Kassian-Chiasson numbers – the 2 players P/60 literally don’t even overlap…

    As I said I don’t want to give Kassian $3M+ with term. But a lot of folks are painting Kassian way short of reality in trying argue what figure and term he should get on this next deal.

    I am pretty much his biggest critic. My assertion has been that he is an aging bottom six winger who doesn’t PK. How is that mischaraterizing him? Why would one give duration to an aging bottom six forward who cannot PK?

    Neal is signed for three more years and doesn’t PK, and is an aging bottom six winger who doesn’t PK.

    How many of these guys does one need? Considering what is being retained on Lucic, if one pays Kassian $3 million with duration, one is spending nearly $10 million on two of these guys, one eighthof the cap, on two replacement level players.

    Like Kassian, Neal also provides some physicality.

  32. jp says:

    godot10: I am pretty much his biggest critic.My assertion has been that he is an aging bottom six winger who doesn’t PK.How is that mischaraterizing him?Why would one give duration to an aging bottom six forward who cannot PK?

    Neal is signed for three more years and doesn’t PK, and is an aging bottom six winger who doesn’t PK.

    How many of these guys does one need? Considering what is being retained on Lucic, if one pays Kassian $3 million with duration, one is spending nearly $10 million on two of these guys, one eighthof the cap, on two replacement level players.

    Like Kassian, Neal also provides some physicality.

    The mischaracterization is that Kassian doesn’t score without McDavid. And/or that he scores at 4th line rates for the most part.

    He’s scored like a top 6 player in 4 of the last 7 seasons. Only 1 of those was aided by McDavid.

    He is aging, but he turned 29 today. This is not Neal, and certainly no one is suggesting giving Kassian more than 3-4 years on a deal.

    I think I’ve also been consistent in saying I am NOT advocating term or big money for Kassian. I do however think he’s a better player than you and many others are claiming.

    I would for instance suggest that calling Kassian “replacement level” is a mischaracterization.

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