Even in the Quietest Moments

The Edmonton Oilers will be spending hours each day over the next while discussing the trade deadline and summer. The season has been a great success so far, but there are many miles to go. How many UFA’s will return? We received some news on that yesterday. How many RFA’s? I expect to see a great deal of movement. Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: What do Connor McDavid’s best lines tell us about his optimal linemates?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: I was an AHL coach for a day: Here’s what I learned
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers player poll: From the serious to the silly, the players weigh in on best dressed, most superstitious and more
  • Thomas Drance: Inside how ‘Okanagan boy’ Ken Holland helped bring back the Penticton Young Stars tournament
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers minor-league defenceman Brandon Manning suspended five games for racial slur
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • Lowetide: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
  • Lowetide:  Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers make a smart two-year bet on Caleb Jones, who has done nothing but improve
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 3 things from the latest Oilers win: A lacrosse goal, Mike Smith’s resurgence and Connor McDavid’s new linemate
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A defiant Zack Kassian issues his latest salvo against Matthew Tkachuk: ‘He messed with the wrong guy’
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
  • Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
  • LowetideKen Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019

OILERS 50-MAN ROSTER

There are 48 names and two slide rules. Edmonton has (by my count) 15 unrestricted and 11 restricted free agents. Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts on Wednesday named “Joakim Nygard, Josh Archibald and Riley Sheahan” as possibly being extended, along with the impending Kassian deal.

If we take each category (signed, slide, UFA, RFA) and guess on the summer, it’s possible to find the range in terms of numbers. That gives us an idea about how much room Holland has to wheel.

Among the signed group, I think Holland might try to find new homes for Jujhar Khaira, Alex Chiasson and one of Adam Larsson or Kris Russell. Current number of players signed for next season: 22.

The slide group has two men, Philip Broberg and Olivier Rodrigue. I think the goalie turns pro, unsure about the Swedish defenceman. Current slides signed for next season: 2.

The UFA group has some clarity after Friedman’s thoughts yesterday. He named Zack Kassian, Joakim Nygard, Josh Archibald and Riley Sheahan, and we can probably add Mike Smith, Gaetan Haas, Patrick Russell and Josh Currie.

That means Tomas Jurco, Markus Granlund, Kyle Brodziak, Brad Malone, Sam Gagner, Brandon Manning and Keegan Lowe would be out. Meaning Edmonton would bring back only eight of 16 unrestricted free agents.

The RFA group numbers 11, and there’s real guesswork here. Ken Holland isn’t attached to these players (for the most part) so we might get a few surprises. I’d suggest Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Matt Benning, William Lagesson, Logan Day will be retained. Meaning Nolan Vesey, Colby Cave, Cameron Hebig, Joel Persson, Ryan Mantha and Shane Starrett would be set free. Meaning Edmonton would bring back five RFA’s.

So, adding everything up: 22 signed, 2 slides, 8 unrestricted and five restricted free agents. Total: 37. Holland may not have enough walking around money, but he could sign a ton of free agents from college, junior and Europe.

One final item: Drafted players who the team may want to sign. This might be the most interesting item all summer, or at least has the potential to be newsworthy. Jesse Puljuarvi may not enjoy the idea of spending another winter in Finland, Anton Slepyshev (I believe Matty reported on this) would be a player of interest, Raphael Lavoie is tearing up the Quebec league and Filip Berglund is spiking in Sweden. I had anticipated Aapeli Rasanen joining the list, but a little birdie told me he has moved to wing. Less value there than if he was a center. If Holland sees him as a pivot, he would be a solid target.

CONDORS 2019-20

Stuart Skinner is absolutely killing it in January. In eight games, 2.45 goals against average and .929 save percentage. He’s winning the starting AHL job in real time. Impressive.

Evan Bouchard’s pass last night to start a sequence that ended in the Cam Hebig goal was pure precision. My goodness that’s talent.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running with fabulous guests and much to discuss, TSN1260. Paul Sir from The Basketball Show talks Zion’s fourth quarter, Olympic Gold medalist Cammi Granato talks All-Star weekend and the women’s showcase, plus NHL scouting. Frank Seravalli from TSN talks trade deadline and All-Star weekend. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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232 Responses to "Even in the Quietest Moments"

  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Central
    STL 19
    COL 13
    DAL 10

    Pacific
    VAN 9
    EDM 8
    CGY 7

    Wildcard
    ARI 6
    VGK 5

    Out of playoffs
    NSH 4
    WPG 3
    CHI 3
    MIN 2
    SJS -4
    ANA -5
    LAK -9

    -Last time I post this until next Monday when regular season play resumes

    • dustrock says:

      I had been predicting the downfall of California for what seems like 4 years in a row and finally it’s happening.

      Having said that, did not expect

      Van
      Edm
      Cow

      for the division

      • Bulging Twine says:

        I know! I’ve been thinking man those top players on the Sharks, Kings, and Ducks are getting old, they’ll surely fall soon for a while now.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Metropolitan
    WSH 22
    PIT 17
    NYI 14

    Atlantic
    BOS 19
    TBY 14
    FLA 12

    Wildcard
    CAR 11
    CBJ 11

    Out of the playoffs
    PHI 10
    TOR 8
    NYR 2
    BUF 2
    MTL 1
    OTT -6
    NJD -7
    DET -23

    -Torts getting Jack Adams love from the pundints now. Would like to see him win it.

  3. Andy Dufresne says:

    If Im Holland, Im using Colton Parayko as a Nurse comparable. (and thats being generous to Nurse)

    Why would Nurse get more than Parayko?

    SEASON CAP HIT AAV P. BONUSES BASE SALARY
    2017-18 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $0 $0 $6,500,000
    2018-19 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $0 $0 $6,500,000
    2019-20 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $0 $0 $5,525,000
    2020-21 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $0 $0 $3,350,000
    2021-22 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $0 $0 $5,625,000

    • Doug McLachlan says:

      What would that translate into as a Cap % in 2017? The straight $ among won’t fly in 2020 but the % might.

  4. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    If Im Holland, Im using Colton Parayko as a comparable.

    Why would Nurse get more than Parayko?

    SEASONCAP HITAAV P. BONUSES BASE SALARY
    2017-18$5,500,000$5,500,000$0$0$6,500,000
    2018-19$5,500,000$5,500,000$0$0$6,500,000
    2019-20$5,500,000$5,500,000$0$0$5,525,000
    2020-21$5,500,000$5,500,000$0$0$3,350,000
    2021-22$5,500,000$5,500,000$0$0$5,625,000

    Parayko got 7.33% of cap, that translates to ~$6.15M x 5 next year. I wouldn’t go that high on a 5-year deal, not when the most direct comp is Morrissey’s $6.25M x 8.

    I was actually thinking of Parayko as a comp this morning, Nurse plays 1st pairing comp and TOI at 5v5 – and is an elite scorer – but doesn’t PP very well. There aren’t a lot of “1st pairing” guys who don’t run their teams PP, Parayko was the first one that came to mind.

    So I agree with you, those are 2 great comps that disprove the chatter involving numbers at $7M+.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      An equally importantly Parayko got no NMC’s or NTC’s

      • Darth Tu says:

        Which means we can trade for him. Excellent.

        • godot10 says:

          Parayko only has two years left on his contract, so you would be paying him $8.5 million in 2.5 years.

          Which is why Nurse is a good deal at $6.5

        • Bulging Twine says:

          Stauffer was hinting that Chiarelli was nearing a trade for Parayko and Bouwmeester last January but then St. Louis started taking off. Probably why GM Armstrong brought Chiarelli on as an advisor.

  5. Clarkenstein says:

    The “goal scoring” cupboard is bare in The Bake. At around 40 games played only one (Currie) is in double digits. Time for a clean out down there.

  6. Andy Dufresne says:

    If Ken Holland can do as much in the next 8 months as he’s done in his first 8 months, we’ll be in great shape to start the 2020-21 season.

    !) Lucic for Neal
    2) Complete rebuild of the bottom six;
    3) Complete overhaul of special teams
    4) Retained all draft picks (except the Lucic 3rd which he will probably replace at the deadline)
    5) No mortgaging/wasting of cap space
    6) Early negotiations with pending UFA’s
    7) Good management of prospects (Broberg left in Sweden, Benson and Bouchard in AHL, Bear, Jones and Yamo up with the big club)
    8) Strategically moving prospects onto the NHL roster.
    9)Effectively targeting potential new roster adds: Connolly and now Pageau that we know of
    10) Stop gap goalie tandum

    He has effectively stopped the bleeing.

    #ToHellWithDeathBy1000Cuts

    • Bulging Twine says:

      Good post. Lot’s to appreciate. I am really appreciating the non rushing to the NHL of prospects. Kudos for sure on the bottom six veterans that he brought in cheap. Some haven’t panned out but he brought enough in and they’ve been helpful. Also, if he didn’t bring them in think of who we’d have here.

  7. dustrock says:

    Give a little bit
    Give a little bit of your love to me
    I’ll give a little bit of my life for you
    Now’s the time that we need to share
    So find yourself, we’re on our way back home

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      They used to play this at the Colesium during the Glory Years….that and “You’re Still the One” by a band called Orleans…..who oddly enough are playing at the River Cree Casino on June 12.

  8. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0: e

    Edmonton is in the playoffs at the All-Star Break.

    Wonder what the stats are for teams to finish that way in April if they’re in at the break.

  9. Melman says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    If Ken Holland can do as much in the next 8 months as he’s done in his first 8 months, we’ll be in great shape to start the 2020-21 season.

    !) Lucic for Neal
    2) Complete rebuild of the bottom six;
    3) Complete overhaul of special teams
    4) Retained all draft picks (except the Lucic 3rd which he will probably replace at the deadline)
    5) No mortgaging/wasting of cap space
    6) Early negotiations with pending UFA’s
    7) Good management of prospects (Broberg left in Sweden, Benson and Bouchard in AHL, Bear, Jones and Yamo up with the big club)
    8) Strategically moving prospects onto the NHL roster.
    9)Effectively targeting potential new roster adds: Connolly and now Pageau that we know of
    10) Stop gap goalie tandum

    He has effectively stopped the bleeing.

    #ToFuckWithDeathBy1000Cuts

    Worth noting that although the cap hit was costly and he’s playing well, buying out Sekera was also a good move. Made room for Bear and Jones to grow

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    The question I’ve started to ask myself is, as much as I think that 4 X $3.5M is a solid $750K overpay and one year too long for Kass, is that overpay worth it as opposed to losing the player?

    That is, if I was Holland, would I be willing to make the overpay (an overpay in terms of expected value as opposed to likely market-value) as opposed to losing the player in free agency?

    I think the answer is yes – it shouldn’t be egregious – worse case scenario is that he’s likely a solid bottom 6 player that put us 20-25 points per year but is quick, physical, a “playoff type player” and a leader. Of course that player isn’t worth $3.5M in his early 30s but it wouldn’t be a killer contract.

    Given the raises needed for Bear and Nurse this off-season and the limited amount of cap space, the overpay is another “cut” in the cap crunch and I’m not enthused about the terms but I think its a deal that Holland probably needs to sign as opposed to losing the player.

    If Zack regresses to the player from 14 months ago that couldn’t piss a drop, was a healthy scratch and asked out, well, lets just pretend that’s not a realistic option.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      I understand your logic as to why Holland might/should overpay.

      But I dont think he’ll have to overpay by much. Holland has a ton of leverage here.

      Kass wants to stay; Kass knows he’s being “uniquely zoomed” by McDavid; Kass loves his situation and the Team loves Kass.

      Some things money cant buy.

      I think if Kass gets his $10m he’ll be happy. (His Agent on the other hand…..)

      Im hoping for $3.m, $3m, $2.5m, $1.5m = $2.5m AVV (probably not going to happen….but would represent potential Value Contract / Home Town Discount)

      Of course Id like less term…..but it doesnt seem realistic….maybe 3×3

      • Andy Dufresne says:

        I also think that if we do re-sign Kassian we need to commit to him on Conner’s right wing for the at least this season and next.

        The only way he lives up to the contract is on Connors wing (or perhpas on Leons wing)

        If you’re not fully commited to Kassian in a top six roll….then dont resign him.

    • jtblack says:

      IMO, you only over pay players identified in your CORE and players who are young and on the up swing …

      why is it ok to overpay for Kassian?

      you overpay Kassian by $750k, overpay Russell by $1 Mi, overpay this guy … Soon you have $3 – $5 million in over pay that could be used to balance out the roster ..

      Remember if Holland choosing not to pay Kassian $3.5 Mil; that is $3.5 Mil he can spend on the open market?

      He brought in Archibald for $1 Mil …. $3.5 Mil on the open market gives Ken a lot of options …

      I guess what I’m saying is do not OVERPAY players on the wrong side of 28 who are not a part of the core.

      • pts2pndr says:

        Very easy to say if there is a plethora of better players to be had for less money. Chemistry on a team is also a thing. Penny wise and pound foolish is in my opinion not the way to be successful. Paying slightly more for a known quantity beats lottery tickets most if not all of the time. The one proviso I would insist on is there would be never be bonus and or no trade clauses as part of a contract.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    I see lots of posts (not just on here but various places) along the lines of “well, take the $3.25M savings as from replacing Russell with Jones and give that to Nurse and there is his raise”.

    To me, its not about “Manning comes off the books and we can give that money to X” or “Gagner comes off the books to buy a middle six winger”, etc.

    The bottom line is this: With a the projected cap increase, the Oilers will have $25M of cap space this off-season with 11 players to sign/acquire. With the Mannings, Kassians, Gagners, Smiths, Archibalds, Nygards, Nurse’s, Bennings, etc. all off the cap, they have 12 players committed (not including non-roster players like Bouchard) and apx $25M in cap space.

    That $25M in cap space needs to be used on 11 players including:

    – Nurse @ apx $6.5M (realistically its going to come in around there)
    – Kass @ apx $3.25M (or replacement)
    – Bear @ $2.5M – $4.5M depending on bridge or term
    – Back-Up goalie

    I assume Benning is qualified at his $2M.

    Those 12 players already include Jones at his nominal salary and I’m going to assume one of the 11 is Bouchard on his ELC cap hit (bonuses could take it up to $1.6M).

    Cap space is at a HUGE premium for one more off-season.

    Russell and/or Larsson (hopefully the former) needs to be moved just, well, because there might not even be enough cap space to keep the important players (Bear, Nurse, Kass) and give the wanted bottom sixers (Archie, Sheahan) nominal raises let along improve externally.

  12. Litke 94 says:

    Is anyone else wondering if the recent play of Archibald has maybe added a hiccup to the Kassian negotiations? Not that the Archibald play alone should give caution in this case, since Lowetide’s Athletic article today (and WG’s excellent work over the past few weeks) showed what we pretty much what we already know: Most anyone can play and produce w/ McDavid, and if you happen to be skilled as well, then that’s just gravy baby.

    I could be reading into this WAY too much, but the verbal last week made it seem like an extension was imminent. By most accounts, that still seems to be the case, but I find it a little interesting that it has’t happened yet.

    Who knows, maybe the contract is all but written up and awaiting a wet signature when Kassian arrives back from vacation, but the forever optimist inside of me wonders if Holland hasn’t taken a slight pause and wondered if maybe Kassian doesn’t quite need a 4th year, or an extra 500K over the 3 million mark.

    It’s not likely…. but man I really hope that is the case. LT’s article today has pretty much convinced me that although Kassian does have some chemistry with McDavid, we should not be paying him as a potential winger for #97 over the next 4 years. There will be many more better, cheaper options available. Keep Kassian, but as a 3rd/4th line guy.

    • pts2pndr says:

      At 3.5 not sure about the lots of players or cheaper. It is possible that home grown talent Maksimov and or Lavoie could fit the bill. If the contract is four years at 4 million I can see were there should be concern. So long as there are not any no trade clauses he could be moved with salary retained. While not ideal to retain it does give the team an alternatve option.

  13. Reja says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    They used to play this at the Colesium during the Glory Years….that and “You’re Still the One” by a band called Orleans…..who oddly enough are playing at the River Cree Casino on June 12.

    “You’re still the one” was used by I believe ABC to promote their new seasons back in the later 70s. Very catchy tune that would stick in you’re head all fricking day no matter how hard you tried to block it out. Thanks Andy.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      lol….Just heard that “Mmmm na ma na” song (from Seasame Street) this morning… that shit sticks like Duc tape!

      I was at the Gretzky tribute night in 1999. Was surprised they didnt play “You’re Still the One” as they drove him around the rink.

    • RedNed says:

      Same catchy bit used here downunder as a station ‘logo tune’ for probably 25 years (NWS9).

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Broberg will undoubtedly slide again next season – if he doesn’t play 10 NHL games, given his age and his 18 year old signing age, he will slide next year weather playing in Skelfeeta or Bakersfield.

    Similar to how Bouchard’s contract is subject to slide this year even though he is playing pro in the AHL.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m not positive they bring back Day with a qualifying offer – maybe depends on if Kemp and/or Berglund sign.

    I think they will qualify Persson and potentially Cave and Starrett as well.

  16. Andy Dufresne says:

    Im still processing the Jones signing.

    2 yrs at a Cap Hit of $850k is really quite impressive ( incredible?)

    And a qualifying offer as RFA of only $892.5k

    Makes me feel good about Holland. Reason to be optimistic about the next handful of signings.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Evan Bouchard’s pass last night to start a sequence that ended in the Cam Hebig goal was pure precision. My goodness that’s talent.”

    I mentioned this last night in the thread a few times – its was very under-stated, Ryan Holt didn’t even mention it. It was just an example of what he does – very accurate transition passes – right on the mark – right to Malone in stride leading to an odd-man rush and a goal.

    Of course, he’s a rover from what I was told so no real value…..

  18. Andy Dufresne says:

    R.I.P. Mr. Peanut.

    • Ribs says:

      Weird. Just yesterday I was wondering to myself what Wesley Snipes is up to these days. Peanut commercials. I should have known.

  19. YKOil says:

    If the Cap goes up to $83.5m and I assign values to:

    .. Kassian at $3.25m, Nurse at $6.25m, and Bear at $3.25m
    .. a back-up goalie at $2.50m
    .. Sheahan, Archibald, Nygard, and Haas (or equivalents) at $1.25m each
    .. and a 13th forward and a 7th d-man at $850k each

    then the Oilers will have roughly $2.00m available to them for a 23rd roster player. That number increases if an existing player/roster hold is replaced. It decreases by every dollar paid out over expectation and increases by every dollar saved.

    Pretty clear that improvement requires that some players get moved. I believe those players will comprise some combination of Chaisson, Russell, Khaira, and possibly Neal. I also hope those are the players involved because the rest of the roster is either indispensable or represents excellent value for the dollars spent.

  20. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: If you’re not fully committed to Kassian in a top six role….then don’t resign him.

    This.

    • godot10 says:

      It is lunacy to commit to Kassian as McDavid’s winger for the next four years. It would have been like committing to Blair MacDonald or Dave Lumley or Warren Young or Rob Brown.

      Kassian is an old bottom six winger who cannot PK.

  21. Reja says:

    YKOil:
    If the Cap goes up to $83.5m and I assign values to:

    .. Kassian at $3.25m, Nurse at $6.25m, and Bear at $3.25m
    .. a back-up goalie at $2.50m
    .. Sheahan, Archibald, Nygard, and Haas (or equivalents) at $1.25m each
    .. and a 13th forward and a 7th d-man at $850k each

    then the Oilers will have roughly $2.00m available to them for a 23rd roster player.That number increases if an existing player/roster hold is replaced.It decreases by every dollar paid out over expectation and increases by every dollar saved.

    Pretty clear that improvement requires that some players get moved.I believe those players will comprise some combination of Chaisson, Russell, Khaira, and possibly Neal. I also hope those are the players involved because the rest of the roster is either indispensable or represents excellent value for the dollars spent.

    You’re good with the predictions, really good.

  22. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Melman: Worth noting that although the cap hit was costly and he’s playing well, buying out Sekera was also a good move. Made room for Bear and Jones to grow

    – I wish they had come up with a different solution though. It’s true that Sek’s disposition allowed the team to see what they had in the draft and develops: and that’s a positive for sure

    – But $2.5, $2.5, $1.5, $1.5 is a massive hit for a player who is still a bona-fide NHL D, who is playing 18+ minutes and is now getting some offence back.

    – Had they kept Sek and he played as he is now here, his cost of disposition would be way less (heck the Leafs would be all over him in a trade)

    – And the Draft and Develops could have over-ripened in the AHL, and still had time in the NHL

    – At the time I didn’t like it. It wasn’t optimal. But because of the draft and develops working out so well, it isn’t a a focus.

  23. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack:
    IMO, you only over pay players identified in your CORE and players who are young and on the up swing …

    why is it ok to overpay for Kassian?

    you overpay Kassian by $750k, overpay Russell by $1 Mi, overpay this guy … Soon you have $3 – $5 million in over pay that could be used to balance out the roster ..

    Remember if Holland choosing not to pay Kassian $3.5 Mil; that is $3.5 Mil he can spend on the open market?

    He brought in Archibald for $1 Mil …. $3.5 Mil on the open market gives Ken a lot of options …

    I guess what I’m saying is do not OVERPAY players on the wrong side of 28 who are nota part of the core.

    Agree. He could sign Archibald for much, much less right now – say $1.2M x 2 – and run him with McDavid for the next 30 months and get at least as much production PLUS he’d have a great PKer, too. I don’t mind Kassian coming back AT ALL, but only if it’s reasonable.

    $3.5M x 4 would’ve got us Brett Connolly. Remember that.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Brett Connolly is a perfect real world marker. We know what he cost(s) and we know his production exceeds that of Kassian.

    • pts2pndr says:

      You have no way of knowing that. It is really easy to bat 300 when you never have to face major league pitching. Legend in your own mind.

  24. Jaxon says:

    Looking forward to the summer. I’m wondering if anyone thinks the Oilers should be interested in any of the goalies who will be UFAs this summer.

    Holtby (Alberta/Sask born) 30yrs, .897 this season
    Lehner 28yrs, .922
    Markstrom 30yrs, .916
    Francouz, 30yrs, .924

    Holtby might be a promising reclamation project. Might he find his way back home for a new lease on life?

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      I think the smart GM’s are spending close to $10m on thier goaltenders. We should probably be doing the same when our cap situation allows it.

      Halák, Jaroslav G NHL 34 $2,750,000 UFA
      Rask, Tuukka M-NTC G NHL 32 $7,000,000

      Binnington, Jordan G NHL 26 $4,400,000 $4,400,000 UFA
      Allen, Jake G NHL 29 $4,350,000 $4,350,000

      Vasilevskiy, Andrei G NHL 25 $9,500,000 $9,500,000
      McElhinney, Curtis G NHL 36 $1,300,000 $1,300,000 UFA

      • Durag says:

        I don’t think we’re going to have a choice about spending at least $10M if we want good goaltending. Koskinen is a $4.5M backup or a $2.5M buyout.

        I’d love to get Markstrom but I think Vancouver does everything to get him signed. If he does hit the market he’s going to be pricey.

    • Darth Tu says:

      Weirdly I was also talking about Holtby this morning. If he’s not too crazy in what he asks for cash wise I’d happily go after him on a 2 year deal – heck he’d probably be happy to be closer to his parents. Does he have kids yet? Oilers could be an ideal landing spot for him. Sure his play has dropped off the last few years but there’s still a good goalie in there – and surely better than what Smith is going to be next year?

      Lehner – he clearly wants paid, I don’t think we can offer what he wants with all of our own RFAs and UFAs that need to get paid.

      Markstrom – HH will have a fit if he comes here.

      Francouz – do we dare and go for the KHL tandem? Have to think he’d be looking for Koskinen money as a minimum after this year.

      In house I’m glad that Skinner is kicking on now for the Condors, but none of the goalies look to be ready to come up to the NHL next season.

  25. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    YKOil:

    – Looking forward to Hockey Night in Canada in Yellowknife in a few Sundays: will be awesome

    – Have you heard anything locally about what they are going to do: kids games, etc?

    – Its a big buzz for sure

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Man, I love the people of the North.

      They protect/maintain our sovereignty.

      And their culture / lifestyle is awesome. Difficult….but awesome.

      True North lies above the 60th Parallel…no where near SkyDome.

      Yukon/NWT/Nunavut…where the actual sky is the dome.

  26. JJS says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Unless the Oilers have a hard target for the top six, Kassian does represent a top 6 option for the short term

    Although I agree that we shouldn’t overpay for fringe players, there are a few complimentary players on every team that are contributing at a high level and should be compensated accordingly

    I like the suggestion earlier that Kas gets a somewhat front loaded contract that goes does incrementally as that would likely match his output over the next 3 years

    His time on the first line will undoubtedly diminish as the Oil procure/develop talent

  27. ArmchairGM says:

    Litke 94: LT’s article today has pretty much convinced me that although Kassian does have some chemistry with McDavid, we should not be paying him as a potential winger for #97 over the next 4 years. There will be many more better, cheaper options available. Keep Kassian, but as a 3rd/4th line guy.

    I agree. Two years from now I see Lavoie in that spot. Maybe that’s too soon, but if he continues improving he’ll likely only need 1.5 years in Bakersfield, making Kassian’s contract a white elephant for the remaining 2.5 years.

  28. Pretendergast says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Seems like good business on both sides. Oilers get cheap depth to grow. Jones is a waiver guy next year so any team that needs him can pick him up on the cheap. Flexibility for the team you’re on to establish yourself and freedom if things aren’t working out.

  29. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Jaxon,

    Holtby and Murray are the top two famous names worth a sniff.

    What do you think of Dell from SJS?

  30. saddleblazer says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    The two high schools play a boys game and a girls game against each other called the ‘Challenge Cup’. It’s usually in November, but this year they are on the Friday before Hockey Day in Canada. There will be a cbc crew and a feature about the games during Saturday’s broadcast. Kids get the day off school to attend.

    I’ll be doing colour commentary for the games on the Sir John Franklin High School youtube page.

    Check it out!

    • saddleblazer says:

      Fun fact about the Challenge Cup: there used to be a teachers game but it was discontinued after a brawl broke out on the ice. In front of students. I’m not kidding.

      • Andy Dufresne says:

        I dont know why this made me laugh. Its really not funny….and yet Im still smiling….I guess because its kind of absurd..

        Its like a scene from a movie… 🙂

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Now THATs a good day!

      Im betting that you’re better at it than Drew Remenda 🙂

  31. Melman says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Is Connolly not a good comp for Kassian though? I get that Kass is getting zoomed by 97, but everyone gets zoomed by 97. McDavid by all accounts likes playing with Kassian and there is also value in keeping your most important player happy. If Zack gets a 4 year deal, I think it’s reasonable that he could hold down his spot on McDavid’s wing for a couple years. Plus the point of all this is to win the cup and while Archibald, for example, could post similar numbers for less $ playing on McDavid’s wing, come playoff time I’d rather have Kassian in my line up.

  32. Nit64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Pacific
    VAN 9
    EDM 8
    CGY 7

    Wildcard
    ARI 6
    VGK 5

    Out of playoffs
    NSH 4
    WPG 3
    CHI 3
    MIN 2

    That’s the competition for now. 60% of the Pacific Teams of this list go straight in. 33% of the remaining teams on this list get wild card tickets. Feet on the gas.

    • BONE207 says:

      Uhhh…what about the other 7%?

      • Nit64 says:

        Does not work like that. 2/5 chance of missing division times 2/3 chance of missing wild card gives 4/15 chance of missing both. But of course team’s with higher pts% will have better chance than those further down the list.

  33. Harpers Hair says:

    Darth Tu,

    Markstrom would be a good get for the Oilers but he won’t come cheap.

    Also worth noting is that Vancouver has a goalie whisperer in Ian Clark who built up Markstrom from the shell they acquired from Florida.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      +!

      The timing is not right for the Oilers. They dont have the cap space this summer.

      • Darth Tu says:

        Yeah – that’s what I thought with the cap space thing. It’s basically Holtby on a value deal, or Smith again. Smith is so streaky, and I worry that the cliff edge for when he can no longer go on the .950 run of games is coming right up.

  34. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    If Im Holland, Im using Colton Parayko as a Nurse comparable. (and thats being generous to Nurse)

    Why would Nurse get more than Parayko?

    SEASONCAP HITAAV P. BONUSES BASE SALARY
    2017-18$5,500,000$5,500,000$0$0$6,500,000
    2018-19$5,500,000$5,500,000$0$0$6,500,000
    2019-20$5,500,000$5,500,000$0$0$5,525,000
    2020-21$5,500,000$5,500,000$0$0$3,350,000
    2021-22$5,500,000$5,500,000$0$0$5,625,000

    That contract was signed three years ago. Before McDavid reset the general salary scale and Doughty and Karlsson reset the defensemen salary scale off of it.

    Parayko’s AAV at time of signing $5.5/$75 = 7.33% This was Parayko’s 2nd contract and there was no transitional deal like with Morrissey and Nurse. And includes only two unrestricted years and negotiated without arbitration rights.

    7.33% of a projected cap next year of $83 million =$6.09 million (only two UFA years)

    Josh Morrissey is $6.25 million (5 UFA years).

    Nurse comparables are over $6 million in current cap dollars

    So Morrissey plus ($6.5 million) is right in the sweet spot for a Nurse contract with duration negotiated with a player with arbitration rights.

  35. hunter1909 says:

    After watching some of last night’s Winnipeg/Columbus game…

    Oilers fans have McDrai!!

    Worth the price of admission probably the top draw in the NHL today and we have them locked up like crazy!

    Say what you will but Hollands doing a masterful job and Harper’s going to lose his hair before Tippett coaches anywhere near as terribly as any of the previous suspects post 2006 which must go down as one of the greatest outliers of all time in professional sports.

  36. hunter1909 says:

    PS: Currently set to open in the 1st round of playoffs vs Calgary lol it doesn’t get any better than that

  37. hunter1909 says:

    saddleblazer:
    Fun fact about the Challenge Cup:there used to be a teachers game but it was discontinued after a brawl broke out on the ice.In front of students.I’m not kidding.

    Back then hockey had no worries over such trifles.

    Men were still men, and women were women.

  38. Nit64 says:

    hunter1909: Harper’s going to lose his hair

    True fact. Harpy lost all of his hair. Got tangled in a zamboni while he was moving goal posts. Claims he posts from Victoria Vancouver Island, but actually lives in the basement of Northlands. Sad day when they tear it down.

  39. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The question I’ve started to ask myself is, as much as I think that 4 X $3.5M is a solid $750K overpay and one year too long for Kass, is that overpay worth it as opposed to losing the player?

    It is basically GM insanity to overpay a replaceable role player to too long who are turning 30. Bottom six forwards who cannot PK are replaceable. That is what Kassian is.

    Kassian has only produced points with McDavid. Everyone produces points with McDavid (see Woddguy’s data).

    • pts2pndr says:

      Keep riding that pony. If you repeat it enough it becomes fact. I respect your passion for the team but on Kassian you have in my opinion crossed the line.

  40. YKOil says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Looking forward to Hockey Night in Canada in Yellowknife in a few Sundays: will be awesome

    – Have you heard anything locally about what they are going to do: kids games, etc?

    – Its a big buzz for sure

    We are going to the alumni game and methinks my son may be involved as well (he is on the Atom development team). The official event listing is here:

    https://www.yellowknife.ca/en/scotiabank-hockey-day-in-canada-event-schedule.asp

    Note that there is also a big pond hockey tourney going on the whole time.

    Going to be a great week-end 🙂

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Im not a big fan of watching Hockey Day on the tube….BUT…to be a part of it would be nothing less than awesome 🙂 Great weekend indeed.

      I usually just watch the game…no intro’s…no intermissions….But the next two weeks Im going to change things up by wathcing the McDavid Documentary and Hockey Day in Canada from the Great White North.

      Will also try to sneak a peek at Sir John Franklin High School youtube page

  41. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I guess the Kassian debate really starts & ends on how much you value having a tough guy in the lineup. To me, he’s easily replaceable. Archibald is a 1st line ES winger with McDavid too, for peanuts.

    I don’t dislike the organizational D depth. Bear & Nurse need extensions.

    The forward depth beyond McDavid, Drai, RNH is piss poor. If they throw around a couple extra $M to anyone who scores with McDavid, then they can’t afford to support those 3. Price themselves out of Taylor Halls becoming available by giving Russell $4M & Kassian $3.5M & Koskinen $4.5M. On a team with the best player in the universe, they don’t need to pay premiums for his wingers. He will carry them.

  42. YKOil says:

    Reja,

    Thanks, I also hereby predict our trade deadline pick-up will be… Luke Glendening. Just sayin.

  43. godot10 says:

    JJS:
    ArmchairGM,

    Unless the Oilers have a hard target for the top six, Kassian does represent a top 6 option for the short term

    Although I agree that we shouldn’t overpay for fringe players, there are a few complimentary players on every team that are contributing at a high level and should be compensated accordingly

    I like the suggestion earlier that Kas gets a somewhat front loaded contract that goes does incrementally as that would likely match his output over the next 3 years

    His time on the first line will undoubtedly diminish as the Oil procure/develop talent

    Front loaded contract provide much less cap relief when on is forced to buy them out.

  44. Oilin4 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The question I’ve started to ask myself is, as much as I think that 4 X $3.5M is a solid $750K overpay and one year too long for Kass, is that overpay worth it as opposed to losing the player?

    That is, if I was Holland, would I be willing to make the overpay (an overpay in terms of expected value as opposed to likely market-value) as opposed to losing the player in free agency?

    I think the answer is yes – it shouldn’t be egregious – worse case scenario is that he’s likely a solid bottom 6 player that put us 20-25 points per year but is quick, physical, a “playoff type player” and a leader.Of course that player isn’t worth $3.5M in his early 30s but it wouldn’t be a killer contract.

    Given the raises needed for Bear and Nurse this off-season and the limited amount of cap space, the overpay is another “cut” in the cap crunch and I’m not enthused about the terms but I think its a deal that Holland probably needs to sign as opposed to losing the player.

    If Zack regresses to the player from 14 months ago that couldn’t piss a drop, was a healthy scratch and asked out, well, lets just pretend that’s not a realistic option.

    I think we’re in the classic Oilers / Oilers media play book right now. “Leak” the contract details as 4 x 3.5, then everyone is happy and nobody blasts it when it comes back at something less 4 x 2.75 or 3 x 3 or something.

  45. Bag of Pucks says:

    https://nationalpost.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/jones-mcdavid-knee-injury-documentary-bares-harrowing-journey-of-non-surgery-route/wcm/50703ff4-eec2-470c-87f9-aba0b1571de3?video_autoplay=true

    Oilers GM Ken Holland: “Talking to Bob Nicholson in the process to become the general manager, we did talk about Connor’s injury, but it didn’t seem to be all that significant. I don’t want to throw Bob under the bus, but I wasn’t made aware of just how seriously he was injured.”

    Nicholson: “When I talked to Ken, he asked that question. It wasn’t the first question he asked, but he certainly asked it fairly quickly through the process. I gave him information, but I certainly didn’t give him all the information.”

    That seems like a pretty functional management dynamic. lol

    Burgers, you Magnificently Mediocre Bastard.

    • godot10 says:

      The actual information is something that cannot be shared until someone is actually hired.

      See Frank Reich and the Indianapolis Colts. He only asked general questions about Andrew Luck’s recovery when he was interviewed for the job.

      • Bag of Pucks says:

        Yes, I’m aware of that legalistic perspective of the situation.

        I’m also aware of the fact that stand up guys with mutual respect as their guide can choose to have a conversation that begins with the phrase, “it doesn’t leave this room, but given you’re deciding your future on this, there’s something I think you should know….”

        Justifying dishonesty because someone was legally within their rights doesn’t make it any less dishonorable. This mindset is a big problem in society imo and is exactly the kind of thing that empowers predatory business practices. Observing the spirit of the law is as important, if not moreso, than observing the letter of the law.

  46. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Why are we paying Sheahan and Archibald more than the 900k and 1mil they already make? Isn’t half of what we talk about on these blogs a constant string of reminders that replaceable players like these two should get contracts that can be buried (<1.025mil)? I'll be disappointed if either of their cap hits come in above 1mil.

    As for the prospect of accepting a 750k overpay for Kassian if it means not losing him; what if that 750k is the difference between being able to afford an upgrade or not? Or what if his total 3.25mil cap hit could be put towards a player like Granlund or Zucker? I would much sooner keep the space open and pursue an upgrade than overpay for a guy that likely won't live up to his contract.

    While there's something to be said for maintaining team chemistry (and by all accounts, Kassian is well-liked), it shouldn't be at the expense of talent and improving.

  47. Bag of Pucks says:

    Man, reading what McDavid had to go through for rehab. 10 hours a day in a hyberbaric chamber. Flexing the same quad muscle over and over and over.

    I started off thinking, this is great, it’s going to show people that there are viable holistic treatments for knee injuries that don’t involve invasive surgery. But then, how many people have the time, wherewithal and most importantly, the discipline, to pull this off?

    What amazing dedication to not let down the team, teammates and fans. If ever there was an athlete who could be realistically considered as underpaid at 100+ million plus, it’s Connor McDavid. Captain, our Captain!

  48. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Melman:
    ArmchairGM,

    Is Connolly not a good comp for Kassian though? I get that Kass is getting zoomed by 97, but everyone gets zoomed by 97. McDavid by all accounts likes playing with Kassian and there is also value in keeping your most important player happy. If Zack gets a 4 year deal, I think it’s reasonable that he could hold down his spot on McDavid’s wing for a couple years. Plus the point of all this is to win the cup and while Archibald, for example, could post similar numbers for less $ playing on McDavid’s wing, come playoff time I’d rather have Kassian in my line up.

    Connolly produced the numbers that got him that contract at ages 26 and earlier and has done so rather consistently in a smaller role all while NOT playing with a player of McDavid’s quality. His most common C in Washington was Eller iirc.

  49. Numenius says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I see lots of posts (not just on here but various places) along the lines of “well, take the $3.25M savings as from replacing Russell with Jones and give that to Nurse and there is his raise”.

    To me, its not about “Manning comes off the books and we can give that money to X” or “Gagner comes off the books to buy a middle six winger”, etc.

    The bottom line is this: With a the projected cap increase, the Oilers will have $25M of cap space this off-season with 11 players to sign/acquire. With the Mannings, Kassians, Gagners, Smiths, Archibalds, Nygards, Nurse’s, Bennings, etc. all off the cap, they have 12 players committed (not including non-roster players like Bouchard) and apx $25M in cap space.

    That $25M in cap space needs to be used on 11 players including:

    – Nurse @ apx $6.5M (realistically its going to come in around there)
    – Kass @apx $3.25M (or replacement)
    – Bear @ $2.5M – $4.5M depending on bridge or term
    – Back-Up goalie

    I assume Benning is qualified at his $2M.

    Those 12 players already include Jones at his nominal salary and I’m going to assume one of the 11 is Bouchard on his ELC cap hit (bonuses could take it up to $1.6M).

    Cap space is at a HUGE premium for one more off-season.

    Russell and/or Larsson (hopefully the former) needs to be moved just, well, because there might not even be enough cap space to keep the important players (Bear, Nurse, Kass) and give the wanted bottom sixers (Archie, Sheahan) nominal raises let along improve externally.

    Yes, this. Nicely argued.

    I’d estimate, then, that once Nurse, Benning, Kassian, Bear are signed, and Bouchard is here, we’ll have approx 7.4 left to sign 6 players, including Archie, Nygard, and Sheahan.

    They may average 1.2 M each, so that leaves 3.6 to sign that last 3 players.

    In other words, there is no room to pick up any additional player for much more than 1.26 M average unless we can dispose of a larger contract like Russell’s or Larsson’s.

  50. hunter1909 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I guess the Kassian debate really starts & ends on how much you value having a tough guy in the lineup. To me, he’s easily replaceable.

    Not so fast. Calgary got their playoff asses handed to them and were so mortified they traded for Lucic.

    And I might be the only one who noticed but when Lucic was on the Oilers Tzachuck was a complete pussy.

  51. jtblack says:

    If a GM is going to overpay, you overpay RFA entering prime years.
    You get the good years
    You don’t have to guess when the decline comes
    You assume the player gets better through maturity, training and experience
    You have identified the player as a part of your CORE.

    If Ken is going to overpay, you overpay a 24 year old Nurse, as opposed to a 29 year old Kassian ..

    I don’t think he should overpay either, but if I had to make a choice I overpay for Nurse’s best years …

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think we are officially at the all-star break now.

    Did the Oilers get through their bye week and lose essentially zero ground in the Pacific and barely have the wild card chasers catch up?

    I assumed they would fall down the standings a bit (and the lower teams would close the gap) during the full 10 days between games but, alas, that is not going to happen.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy:

    -Torts getting Jack Adams love from the pundints now.Would like to see him win it.

    I’d like to see Dave Tippett win it – if the team goes last third of the season similar to 2017……

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouchard heading to the AHL all-star game.

    Bouchard and Yamamoto named – Benson named as Yamamoto’s replacement.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    AndyDufresne:
    I understand your logic as to why Holland might/should overpay.

    But I dont think he’ll have to overpay by much. Holland has a ton of leverage here.

    Kass wants to stay, Kass knows he’s being “uniquely zoomed” by McDavid, Kass loves his situation and the Team loves Kass.

    Some things money cant buy.

    I think if Kass gets his $10m he’ll be happy. (His Agent on the other hand…..)

    Im hoping for $3.m, $3m, $2.5m, $1.5m = $2.5m AVV (probably not going to happen….but would represent potential Value Contract / Home Town Discount)

    Of course Id like less term…..but it doesnt seem realistic….maybe 3×3

    I don’t think I disagree with anything here but will state this, while I agree that Zack “loves Edmonton” and “wants to stay”, 14 months ago he wanted out……

    Things and feelings can and do change quickly.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    AndyDufresne:
    I also think that if we do re-sign Kassian we need to commit to him on Conner’s right wing for the at least this season and next.

    The only way he lives up to the contract is on Connors wing (or perhpas on Leons wing)

    If you’re not fully commited to Kassian in a top six roll….then dont resign him.

    While I fully expect Kass to be 1RW to start the game on the 29th, I’m not so sure that keeping Archie there and inserted Kass as a boost to the bottom six where Gagner or P. Russell have been playing, isn’t the “better line-up” right now.

    I get what you are saying about committing to Kass at 1RW – that’s the only way he’ll be “worth” $3M plus, however, at the same time, the lines will eb and flow and, at some point, a more “natural fit” will be developed or acquired. In reality, that probably isn’t by the end of the 2020/21 season in any event.

  57. ArmchairGM says:

    Melman:
    ArmchairGM,

    Is Connolly not a good comp for Kassian though? I get that Kass is getting zoomed by 97, but everyone gets zoomed by 97. McDavid by all accounts likes playing with Kassian and there is also value in keeping your most important player happy. If Zack gets a 4 year deal, I think it’s reasonable that he could hold down his spot on McDavid’s wing for a couple years. Plus the point of all this is to win the cup and while Archibald, for example, could post similar numbers for less $ playing on McDavid’s wing, come playoff time I’d rather have Kassian in my line up.

    I would say that Connolly is NOT a good comp for Kass. Connolly has a history of production even while playing on the 3rd line in Washington with Lars Eller as his center, Kassian doesn’t produce unless he’s with McDavid. But everyone produces next to McDavid, so why should we pay him for that? And I question how much longer he’s going to be playing with McDavid anyhow: in the past 9 games together Kassian has zero goals and just 3 assists, while being minus-3.

    5v5 Goals/60

    Kassian
    16-17: 0.48
    17-18: 0.57
    18-19: 0.69 (played 1/2 season with McDavid)
    19-20: 1.16 (playing full season with McDavid so far)

    Connolly
    16-17: 1.26
    17-18: 0.83
    18-19: 1.27
    19-20: 1.11

    5v5 goals scored over this time period:

    Kassian: 39
    Connolly: 57

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil:
    If the Cap goes up to $83.5m and I assign values to:

    .. Kassian at $3.25m, Nurse at $6.25m, and Bear at $3.25m
    .. a back-up goalie at $2.50m
    .. Sheahan, Archibald, Nygard, and Haas (or equivalents) at $1.25m each
    .. and a 13th forward and a 7th d-man at $850k each

    then the Oilers will have roughly $2.00m available to them for a 23rd roster player.That number increases if an existing player/roster hold is replaced.It decreases by every dollar paid out over expectation and increases by every dollar saved.

    Pretty clear that improvement requires that some players get moved.I believe those players will comprise some combination of Chaisson, Russell, Khaira, and possibly Neal. I also hope those are the players involved because the rest of the roster is either indispensable or represents excellent value for the dollars spent.

    Yup, pretty much what I was saying a few posts above.

    Without dispositions of Russell (or Larsson), there is essentially zero money to improve externally.

    Your calculations above might even prove to be low with respect to Nurse and Bear. I’m not arguing what they “should” come in at but, in reality, we don’t know and its reasonable to think that, in reality, they could be higher – or lower.

  59. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    saddleblazer:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    The two high schools play a boys game and a girls game against each other called the ‘Challenge Cup’.It’s usually in November, but this year they are on the Friday before Hockey Day in Canada.There will be a cbc crew and a feature about the games during Saturday’s broadcast.Kids get the day off school to attend.

    I’ll be doing colour commentary for the games on the Sir John Franklin High School youtube page.

    Check it out!

    – Cool: Sir John Franklin is my alma-mater (Mildred Hall for Jr school). I will for sure look that up: I didn’t realize they had a web page…Thanks for sharing.

    – How long you lived in YK? I grew up there.

    • saddleblazer says:

      I’m a life long northerner (except for my time at U of A) based in YK 13 years now. I love it here

  60. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Nurse comparables are over $6 million in current cap dollars

    So Morrissey plus ($6.5 million) is right in the sweet spot for a Nurse contract

    Why does Nurse get more than Morrissey in your estimation?

  61. Nit64 says:

    Here’s a look at the D with an eye on the expansion draft. Exempt are in brackets. As on now 5D to potentially protect in CAPS. Larsson could be left unprotected to be signed July 1, 2021 based on an understanding.

    2020 UFA Lowe Manning
    2020 RFA BEAR Benning Lagesson Mantha NURSE Persson (Day)

    2021 UFA LARSSON Russell

    2022 RFA JONES (Bouchard) (Broberg) (Samorukov)

    2023 UFA KLEFBOM

  62. Nit64 says:

    Here’s a look at the G with an eye on the expansion draft. Exempt are in brackets

    2020 UFA Smith
    2020 RFA Starrett

    2021 RFA Skinner Wells

    2022 UFA Koskinen
    2022 RFA (Rodrigue)

  63. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bouchard heading to the AHL all-star game.

    Bouchard and Yamamoto named – Benson named as Yamamoto’s replacement.

    Excellent news.

  64. Nit64 says:

    Here’s a look at the F with an eye on the expansion draft. Exempt are in brackets. As of now the first seven to potentially protect in CAPS. In theory Nuge could also be signed July 1, 2021 based on an understanding. 8 Skaters is the other option given the D to protect.

    2019 RFA Puljujärvi

    2020 UFA ARCHIBALD Brodziak Currie Gagner Granlund KASSIAN Malone Russell Sheahan (Haas) (Nygård) (Jurco)
    2020 RFA Cave Hebig Vesey

    2021 UFA Chiasson Gambardella NUGENT-HOPKINS
    2021 RFA BENSON Khaira Marody YAMAMOTO

    2022 RFA (McLeod) (Maksimov) (Safin)

    2023 UFA Neal

    2025 UFA DRAISAITL

    2026 UFA MCDAVID

  65. OilClog says:

    OriginalPouzar: While I fully expect Kass to be 1RW to start the game on the 29th, I’m not so sure that keeping Archie there and inserted Kass as a boost to the bottom six where Gagner or P. Russell have been playing, isn’t the “better line-up” right now.

    I get what you are saying about committing to Kass at 1RW – that’s the only way he’ll be “worth” $3M plus, however, at the same time, the lines will eb and flow and, at some point, a more “natural fit” will be developed or acquired.In reality, that probably isn’t by the end of the 2020/21 season in any event.

    Couldn’t Archie just return to the bottom 6 and boost them up? Isn’t there a concern that if Archie sits on the top line then he too will have a inflated contract demand? What is a natural fit alongside McDavid when he makes all line mates walk on water and uses whatever their skill is to his advantage? Isn’t Kassian skillset a natural fit? Fast, space opening, busy stick, always looking to feed McDavid. Knows 110% what his role is at all times with McDavid.. I’m sure the Oilers are going to just have a better natural fit fall into their laps, they have a great history of this. Wait didn’t they have a natural fit in Hall?

    I’ve had this comment reviewed by a neighbor that once had lunch with a second cousin to the uncle of a minority Flames owner, it’s all good folks.

  66. giddy says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    I think the smart GM’s are spending close to $10m on thier goaltenders. We should probably be doing the same when our cap situation allows it.

    Halák, JaroslavGNHL34$2,750,000 UFA
    Rask, TuukkaM-NTCGNHL32$7,000,000

    Binnington, JordanGNHL26$4,400,000$4,400,000UFA
    Allen, JakeGNHL29$4,350,000$4,350,000

    Vasilevskiy, AndreiGNHL25$9,500,000$9,500,000
    McElhinney, CurtisGNHL36$1,300,000$1,300,000UFA

    Considering goaltending is the single position that can truly make or break a team, sometimes it shocks me more isn’t spent.

    You could have the best forward and d corp in the league, but if you have a real sub-par goalie only putting up an 8.90, you’re going to lose a lot of hockey games. Similarly, you could have a sub-par offense and d corp but you have an amazing goalie+backup each putting up a .920+, you’re going to win a lot of games you likely shouldn’t have.

    How long were MTLs problems masked by Price playing out of his mind night-in night-out? And how exposed have they been when Price is struggling?

    That said, goalies are total voodoo and so risky to spend big $$ on, especially for term, that I understand why they aren’t often making the biggest $$.

  67. Bulging Twine says:

    I was looking through Hockeydb drafts by team
    I was wondering how often teams take goalies and I saw how many whiffs there are in drafting goalies (as there are at any position). So many. It’s hard to get a hit on a goalie.
    I got to thinking, where do the few goalies that actually make it come from? Is it futile to draft them?

    Of the 56 goalies that have played in 15 or more games this season:

    10 (17.9%) were drafted in the 1st round
    11 (19.6%) were drafted in the 2nd
    10 (17.9%) in round 3
    5 (8.9%) in round 4
    3 (5.4%) in round 5
    3 (5.4%) in round 6
    2 (3.6%) in round 7
    1 in round 8
    2 in round 9
    9 (16.1%) undrafted

    Of the 33 goalies who have played in at least 25 games (starters or close to):

    6 (18.2%) drafted in round 1
    8 (24.2%) round 2
    6 (18.2%) round 3
    3 (9%) round 4
    3 (9%) round 5
    2 (6.1%) round 6
    1 (3%) round 7
    1 (3%) round 8
    3 ( 9%) undrafted

    -sorry if this is bad LT blog etiquette it’s a repost from the wee hours
    thought i’d post here on the chance there are comments/disparaging remarks/refinements/or not

    • Bulging Twine says:

      For further info

      From 2003-2014 there were 265 Goalies drafted. Of those

      6.4% were in the 1st round
      13.6% in the 2nd
      15.5% in the 3rd
      13.6% in the 4th
      16.6% in the 5th
      18.9% in the 6th
      15.5% in the 7th

      • Bulging Twine says:

        of the 331 FW’s that have played in 35 games or more this season:

        158 (47.7%) were first round picks
        47 (14.2%) 2nd round
        35 (10.6%) 3rd round
        23 (6.9%) 4th round
        16 (4.8%) 5th round
        15 (4.5%) 6th round
        8 (2.4%) 7th round
        29 (8.8%) undrafted

        Are first round picks important?
        Yes, yes they are.

        almost half of FW’s are 1st round picks!

        • Bulging Twine says:

          Of the 162 Defencemen that have played in at least 35 games this year:

          64 (39.5%) drafted in first round
          34 (21%) 2nd rounders
          16 (9.9%) 3rd round
          13 (8%) 4th round
          9 (5.6%) 5th round
          7 (4.3%) 6th round
          4 (2.5%) 7th round
          15 (9.3%) undrafted

          Significantly higher % of 2nd rounders than for FW’s
          I’d like to see the # of draft picks used on each position to give more info here. As in is there a good hit rate on 2nd round D men or are more % of Dmen picks used in the 2nd and not as many in the 1st?

          • Bulging Twine says:

            Appears that there is value in drafting goalies in the 3rd round

            Maybe an idea for a generalized template to draft by (and amend as opportunity arises) would be this:

            1st round: FW
            2nd round: D
            3rd round: G

    • PennersPancakes says:

      It would be interesting to look at how many picks were spent on goaltenders as well to get a rough success rate per round as well.

      • Bulging Twine says:

        # of Goalies chosen per round 2003-2014

        1-17
        2-36
        3-41
        4-36
        5-44
        6-50
        7-41

        • Bulging Twine says:

          Keep in mind it’s not a direct correlation to success/whiff rate but a snapshot on this season as there are some goalies drafted in that time period that have played and are no longer playing.

          Also there are 3 goalies playing more than 15 games that were drafted after 2014:
          Hart 2016, Blackwood and Samsonov 2015
          But those are the outliers, early poppers from those recent drafts.

          There are also 3 playing that were drafted before 2003. Lundqvist 2000, Smith and Anderson 2001

          There is one goalie playing in the league that was drafted by the Oilers: Dubnyk. 1st round 2004

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Terry Jones has a piece out about the McDavid injury documentary.

    Link: https://edmontonsun.com/opinion/columnists/jones-mcdavid-knee-injury-documentary-bares-harrowing-journey-of-non-surgery-route

    This jumped out at me:


    Oilers GM Ken Holland: “Talking to Bob Nicholson in the process to become the general manager, we did talk about Connor’s injury, but it didn’t seem to be all that significant. I don’t want to throw Bob under the bus, but I wasn’t made aware of just how seriously he was injured.”

    Nicholson: “When I talked to Ken, he asked that question. It wasn’t the first question he asked, but he certainly asked it fairly quickly through the process. I gave him information, but I certainly didn’t give him all the information.”

    That’s one of the biggest asshole moves I’ve ever seen.

    Wow.

    • godot10 says:

      Ken Holland was not an employee yet. He was not entitled to the information. It is not information that he had a right to ask about except in generalities.

      • Woodguy v2.0 says:

        As I stated elsewhere in the thread, I get not full disclosure during an interview process.

        If you are down to the details on a 5 year deal and don’t rely that information that’s seriously bad.

        • godot10 says:

          You reveal the your most sensitive closely held corporate secrets during job interviews at your wood shop? Even if said person is still an employee of one of your closest competitors? Really. You do that.

          • Woodguy v2.0 says:

            Jesus dude how often do I have to say it’s not during the interview phase and at the contract negotiation phase.

    • Bag of Pucks says:

      Yup. I mentioned this a little higher up the thread.

      The more you find out about Burgers, the less you want to know.

  69. Litke 94 says:

    I wonder if Bob not sharing the details of Connor’s injury had more to do with McDavid’s request for secrecy, or more so Bob being sly and not wanting to run-off Holland due to fear of long-term injury. Maybe a bit of both.

    Holland seems like a guy who could be trusted with a secret like that, but maybe the fear was that Holland would reject the offer, and when asked why, leak information that McDavid’s knee was worse than being reported, therefore resulting in the walls of secrecy shattering around them.

    I’d be curious to see some more information on what Bob’s mandate was.

  70. ArmchairGM says:

    Pretty sure Woodguy has posted these numbers in days past (or something similar), but here’s a look at Edmonton’s wingers and their goal production at 5v5 with and without McDavid in the past 2.5 years.

    With McDavid

    Caggiula: 1.25 G/60
    Puljujarvi: 1.11
    ** Kassian: 1.08
    Maroon: 0.92
    Rattie: 0.89
    Slepyshev: 0.65
    Chiasson: 0.55
    Khaira: 0.53

    Without McDavid

    Maroon: 0.91 G/60 – this guy got traded for a 3rd round pick at the deadline
    Chiasson: 0.66 – this guy got a $2.15M x 2 deal
    Slepyshev: 0.63 – “pardon impossible, to be sent to Siberia”
    Caggiula: 0.57 – traded for the worst human being in hockey
    ** Kassian: 0.55 – SIGN HIM TO TERM AND AAV URGENTLY
    Khaira: 0.55 – healthy scratch
    Puljujarvi: 0.47 – took his marbles and went home
    Rattie: 0.39 – bouncing around in the KHL

    And just for fun, lets look at how McDavid performed with these players at 5v5, past 2.5 years:

    Slepyshev: 4.56 P/60 (92:04)
    Caggiula: 3.96 (287:48)
    Khaira: 3.67 (114:25)
    Chiasson: 3.27 (330:25)
    Rattie: 3.13 (402:55)
    ** Kassian: 2.95 (1056:04)
    Maroon: 2.64 (523:39)
    Puljujarvi: 2.59 (323:43)

    McDavid’s GF% with these same players (goal differential/60):

    Khaira: 58.33 (+1.05)
    Puljujarvi: 55.17 (+0.56)
    ** Kassian: 54.03 (+0.57)
    Slepyshev: 53.85 (+0.65)
    Chiasson: 52.63 (+0.36)
    Maroon: 52.00 (+0.23)
    Caggiula: 50.00 (—)
    Rattie: 50.00 (—)

  71. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Also in Jones’ piece was a list of the injuries to his knee:

    – fully torn posterior cruciate ligament (PCL)

    – torn medial and lateral menisci

    – fully torn popliteus muscle

    – complete tear of the posterior capsule

    – tibial plateau fracture

    Yesterday a poster said this:

    – How much of this is CIBC trying to open bank accounts, Addidas trying to sell equipement, All-Star game trying to set up some buzz, Sportsnet to get clicks?

    – It is impressive the rehab he did, but there is a lot of hyperbole, and dramatic music. I’m skeptical about some of the claims, but whatever, I don’t hate McD for feeding the machine.

    I thought it was an asshole thing to say at the time, but in light of this its beyond the pale.

    Good grief.

  72. Craig Zonit says:

    Just wanted to chime in to shout out Bulging Twine for the interesting information on Tyler Wright’s scouting record with the Blue Jackets last thread, as well as the reprised goalie drafting analysis. Many teams definitely have a predisposition against risking a goalie pick in the first round and it shows.

    Apropos of nothing, Jujhar Khaira’s cousin sold me a six pack here on the Island yesterday. He noticed my Oilers chapeau and struck up with me, the family’s very proud of his achievement. I didn’t want to pry about an injury but we agreed he needs to make a statement to get back in the lineup regularly, and the perfect time could well be slotting in against Calgary after the break. Neat.

    • Bulging Twine says:

      Thanks man

      ya, I don’t know what has happened to Khaira this season. He looked promising to me a couple of years ago.
      He does have 6 even strength goals though.

  73. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Litke 94:
    I wonder if Bob not sharing the details of Connor’s injury had more to do with McDavid’s request for secrecy, or more so Bob being sly and not wanting to run-off Holland due to fear of long-term injury. Maybe a bit of both.

    Holland seems like a guy who could be trusted with a secret like that, but maybe the fear was that Holland would reject the offer, and when asked why, leak information that McDavid’s knee was worse than being reported, therefore resulting in the walls of secrecy shattering around them.

    I’d be curious to see some more information on what Bob’s mandate was.

    I get not telling any prospective candidate about how bad it is, but if you are about to offer someone a 5 year contract and you are not 100% forthcoming that’s just bad. Really bad.

    • Litke 94 says:

      Woodguy v2.0,

      Yeah, it’s not a very good look at all. I wonder how Nicholson’s choice has effected their relationship since. Would suspect that their may be some lingering trust issues afterwards.

      Kind of a funny visual…. Can picture Kenny signing the dotted line and Bob with his shit-eating grin, “Oh by the way Ken, something I should mention…”

      His hiring on May 7th would’ve meant that those interviews were right in the thick of the unknown for Connor. What a story.

      • Litke 94 says:

        It’s funny though, now I read another take on the situation on twitter and I can somewhat see the other side of it.

        At the time of the hiring process, Holland was still a member of the Red Wings organization. Assuming he doesn’t sign with Edmonton, he stays with that organization.

        If Bob shares the details of Connor’s injury with Holland, and Holland balks, you’ve now given potentially damning information to another organization and maybe the rest of the league. That may also domino and mess up your team’s search for another GM, may impact FA signings, etc etc.

        Wow, that’s a f***ing brutal position to be in. I don’t envy anyone involved in that entire process.

        • Bag of Pucks says:

          First, I don’t see how the information is damning. Injuries are not something you can cover up in perpetuity. Eventually the world would know. It’s a knee injury not a cold fusion patent.

          If Burgers was honest with Holland, he’s doing him a solid. I don’t see Ken repaying that favour by running back to Detroit and blabbing. They likely had him under an NDA during the interview anyway. Most high profile exec interviews insist on that.

          Burgers could have explained the prognosis was still uncertain but looked positive and Connor was atracking rehab like a beast. They could have had Holland chat with Connor too to allay any concerns as well.

          Instead, they choose obfuscation which is SOP under Burgers unfortunately.

          • Litke 94 says:

            I guess. I still think that information leaking could have been damaging to McDavid (which is what he was looking to avoid), and the Oilers in the sense of scaring away potential GM’s, Free Agents, attempting to be victimized in trades.

            It’s a bad look on Bob and the organization, but I can at least somewhat understand the hesitation to reveal it to a GM candidate who is working for another organization.

            And what if Connor’s camp instructed Bob to not tell a soul, even potential GM candidates? Then what do you do? That’s a really tough call.

            “Burgers could have explained the prognosis was still uncertain but looked positive and Connor was atracking rehab like a beast.”

            It’s possible that this is what Bob did, and is what Ken is referring to in saying that the full extent of the injury wasn’t revealed. In late April, there was still a lot of uncertainty, so saying that things looked positive would have still been misleading, even with the added context of uncertainty.

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Pretty sure Woodguy has posted these numbers in days past (or something similar), but here’s a look at Edmonton’s wingers and their goal production at 5v5 with and without McDavid in the past 2.5 years.

    With McDavid

    Caggiula: 1.25 G/60
    Puljujarvi: 1.11
    ** Kassian: 1.08
    Maroon: 0.92
    Rattie: 0.89
    Slepyshev: 0.65
    Chiasson: 0.55
    Khaira: 0.53

    Without McDavid

    Maroon: 0.91 G/60 – this guy got traded for a 3rd round pick at the deadline
    Chiasson: 0.66 – this guy got a $2.15M x 2 deal
    Slepyshev: 0.63 – “pardon impossible, to be sent to Siberia”
    Caggiula: 0.57 – traded for the worst human being in hockey
    ** Kassian: 0.55 – SIGN HIM TO TERM AND AAV URGENTLY
    Khaira: 0.55 – healthy scratch
    Puljujarvi: 0.47 – took his marbles and went home
    Rattie: 0.39 – bouncing around in the KHL

    And just for fun, lets look at how McDavid performed with these players at 5v5, past 2.5 years:

    Slepyshev: 4.56 P/60 (92:04)
    Caggiula: 3.96 (287:48)
    Khaira: 3.67 (114:25)
    Chiasson: 3.27 (330:25)
    Rattie: 3.13 (402:55)
    ** Kassian: 2.95 (1056:04)
    Maroon: 2.64 (523:39)
    Puljujarvi: 2.59 (323:43)

    McDavid’s GF% with these same players (goal differential/60):

    Khaira: 58.33 (+1.05)
    Puljujarvi: 55.17 (+0.56)
    ** Kassian: 54.03 (+0.57)
    Slepyshev: 53.85 (+0.65)
    Chiasson: 52.63 (+0.36)
    Maroon: 52.00(+0.23)
    Caggiula: 50.00 (—)
    Rattie: 50.00 (—)

    I didn’t get into that much detail.

    Good stuff and its appreciated.

  75. Bulging Twine says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Broberg will undoubtedly slide again next season – if he doesn’t play 10 NHL games, given his age and his 18 year old signing age, he will slide next year weather playing in Skelfeeta or Bakersfield.

    Similar to how Bouchard’s contract is subject to slide this year even though he is playing pro in the AHL.

    Having Bouchard on the cheap for 3 full years will be helpful.

  76. Bulging Twine says:

    “Evan Bouchard’s pass last night to start a sequence that ended in the Cam Hebig goal was pure precision. My goodness that’s talent.”

    I wonder if the FW’s will enjoy having Bouchard and Bear giving them outlet passes for the next decade?

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    https://theathletic.com/1554946/2020/01/23/16-stats-the-loss-of-dougie-hamilton-playoff-roller-coasters-and-elvis/

    “… in eight games… the Oilers have cruised to a 6-1-1 record… With Yamamoto surging, the Oilers look to have a legit top six in the fold as he’s looked great next to Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, while McDavid plus Literally Any Two Random Guys is almost always going to be an elite top line.”

    McDavid plus Literally Any Two Random Guys. I like it.

    • Darth Tu says:

      I’m lacing my skates up as we speak. I’m happy to take league minimum for a year or two and then retire back to my day job.

  78. Bulging Twine says:

    Jaxon:
    Looking forward to the summer. I’m wondering if anyone thinks the Oilers should be interested in any of the goalies who will be UFAs this summer.

    Holtby (Alberta/Sask born) 30yrs, .897 this season
    Lehner 28yrs, .922
    Markstrom 30yrs, .916
    Francouz, 30yrs, .924

    Holtby might be a promising reclamation project. Might he find his way back home for a new lease on life?

    Read GM Benning say yesterday that Markstrom lives in VAN, likes his teammates, wants to stay and they want him and that they will find a solution there.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilin: I think we’re in the classic Oilers / Oilers media play book right now. “Leak” the contract details as 4 x 3.5, then everyone is happy and nobody blasts it when it comes back at something less 4 x 2.75 or 3 x 3 or something.

    That is what the org did with McDavid I believe – they leaked the $13.25M a week or so before he signed for $12.5M so it didn’t sound that high even though it was a solid $2M over the previously current highest cap hit in the league. That was a BIG number made to look not quite as big.

    Hopefully you are right.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    UnfriendlyRegionalArachnidIndividual:
    Why are we paying Sheahan and Archibald more than the 900k and 1mil they already make? Isn’t half of what we talk about on these blogs a constant string of reminders that replaceable players like these two should get contracts that can be buried (1.025mil)? I’ll be disappointed if either of their cap hits come in above 1mil.

    I think that is an aggresive use of the term “replacement level” – I think that described more of a P. Russell or a Haas.

    These two have proven to be elite penalty killers and, right there, that provides value.

    A huge reason for the team’s competitiveness this year is a much improved PK that’s currently in the top 10 after years at the bottom of the league – these two are a huge part of that.

    Buryalble amounts are league min plus $375K – I believe league min is $700K next year which would mean, one can bury $1,075,000 of a one-way contract.

  81. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: Why does Nurse get more than Morrissey in your estimation?

    Morrissey didn’t have to pay for a year of career injury insurance, like Nurse. He didn’t use arbitration as a factor in the negotiation.

  82. tileguy says:

    My guess is Tchuck is going to try and run Yamfries next game. This will drive Draisaitl out of his skin and into the penalty box, or at the least put him off his game. Hopefully Tipp will have them well prepared and have JJ as the designated enforcer in the lineup. Two minutes for an elbow here, a slew foot there.

  83. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I get not telling any prospective candidate about how bad it is, but if you are about to offer someone a 5 year contract and you are not 100% forthcoming that’s just bad.Really bad.

    This. All day.

    You either have integrity or you don’t, and these are the types of actions and decisions that define it.

  84. RonnieB says:

    hunter1909: PS: Currently set to open in the 1st round of playoffs vs Calgary lol it doesn’t get any better than that

    (

    What about the Oilers getting a top 3 spot in the Pacific and Calgary getting the wildcard spot that crosses over to the Central ? Then the Oilers and Flames could meet in the WC Finals.

  85. pts2pndr says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I wish they had come up with a different solution though.It’s true that Sek’s disposition allowed the team to see what they had in the draft and develops: and that’s a positive for sure

    – But $2.5, $2.5, $1.5, $1.5 is a massive hit for a player who is still a bona-fide NHL D, who is playing 18+ minutes and is now getting some offence back.

    – Had they kept Sek and he played as he is now here, his cost of disposition would be way less (heck the Leafs would be all over him in a trade)

    – And the Draft and Develops could have over-ripened in the AHL, and still had time in the NHL

    – At the time I didn’t like it.It wasn’t optimal.But because of the draft and develops working out so well, it isn’t a a focus.

    Had they kept Sekera they would be paying his 5.5 plus Russels 4.5 for third pairing LD. How would that fit in the cap. At the time they bought out Sekera his health was suspect. It was the prudent thing to do.

  86. Ribs says:

    So does Holland sign up if he hears McDavid’s knee is trashed and that he might not skate again? It sounded like he was leaving a pretty cush job in Detroit to take on a rebuilding Oilers team.

    • Bag of Pucks says:

      I think there is a wee bit of hyperbole on the injury severity to help sell this documentary.

      It was a bad injury without a doubt, but I suspect a ‘career ender’ was always a low % absolute worst case scenario. The primary worry was likely diminished capacity. Given the reality of malpractice suits, Doctors have to cover their asses with their prognosis language so the worst case scenario gets trotted out even when the Doctor is more bullish, cos of the possibility of infection, complications, etc.

      Orthopedic surgery has made amazing advances and pro athletes are obviously optimal patients from a recovery and rehab pov.

      Google Teddy Bridgewater’s knee injury. That is how horrifically bad these injuries can get and he’s a prize free agent now this offseason.

      I’m not underplaying McDavid’s triumph of will here btw. Amazing decision and dedication to go rehab and no surgery on this. Smart smart lad.

      • Ribs says:

        I imagine “diminished capacity” could also give Holland a moment of pause before signing up for a long term commitment!

        The Bridgewater story is interesting. Thanks!

  87. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Morrissey didn’t have to pay for a year of career injury insurance, like Nurse. He didn’t use arbitration as a factor in the negotiation.

    Arbitration is going to look at comps though, and Morrissey is the closest one. Do you think they’ll award greater compensation to Nurse?

  88. Bulging Twine says:

    ArmchairGM:

    And just for fun, lets look at how McDavid performed with these players at 5v5, past 2.5 years:

    Slepyshev: 4.56 P/60 (92:04)
    Caggiula: 3.96 (287:48)
    Khaira: 3.67 (114:25)
    Chiasson: 3.27 (330:25)
    Rattie: 3.13 (402:55)
    ** Kassian: 2.95 (1056:04)
    Maroon: 2.64 (523:39)
    Puljujarvi: 2.59 (323:43)

    McDavid’s GF% with these same players (goal differential/60):

    Khaira: 58.33 (+1.05)
    Puljujarvi: 55.17 (+0.56)
    ** Kassian: 54.03 (+0.57)
    Slepyshev: 53.85 (+0.65)
    Chiasson: 52.63 (+0.36)
    Maroon: 52.00(+0.23)
    Caggiula: 50.00 (—)
    Rattie: 50.00 (—)

    I think these are the more important items in the conversation.

    Especially the latter.

  89. v4ance says:

    jtblack:
    If a GM is going to overpay, you overpay RFA entering prime years.
    You get the good years
    You don’t have to guess when the decline comes
    You assume the player gets better through maturity, training and experience
    You have identified the player as a part of your CORE.

    If Ken is going to overpay, you overpay a 24 year old Nurse, as opposed to a 29 year old Kassian ..

    I don’t think he should overpay either, but if I had to make a choice I overpay for Nurse’s best years …

    Exactly my thoughts.

    If NHL GMs were to get better at their jobs, there would be much fewer big dollar/big term contracts after the age of 28; especially for forwards. That’s an inefficiency that’s ripe to be targeted by a smart team who can use more of those cap dollars on younger “in their prime” players.

  90. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: Arbitration is going to look at comps though, and Morrissey is the closest one. Do you think they’ll award greater compensation to Nurse?

    If Nurse goes to arbitration, he won’t get $6 million for one year. He will get something starting with a five. And then next year he will choose arbitration to get to UFA status, or sign a long term deal with the Oilers starting with a seven. But if you don’t commit to him long term now, then his short term interests and the teams short term interest for him may not be aligned. One reason one wants core players signed long term is that it align the player’s and the team’s interest.

    And if he get to UFA status, it will almost certainly be something starting with a seven or eight.

    They could have had him long term two years ago for something starting with a five.

  91. PunjabiOil says:

    pts2pndr: ying that the full extent of the injury wasn’t revealed. In late April, there was still a lot of uncertainty, so saying that things looked positive would have still been misleading, even with the added context of uncertainty.

      (Quote)  (Reply)

    The goal was short-term cap savings.

    Made more sense to bury out Sam Gagner and not have dead cap-hit in years 3 and 4.

    You also could have waived Brandon Manning at game 1 and not not after a half a season and that would also have provided short-term cap relief.

  92. Reja says:

    Ribs:
    So does Holland sign up if he hears McDavid’s knee is trashed and that he might not skate again? It sounded like he was leaving a pretty cush job in Detroit to take on a rebuilding Oilers team.

    25 million dollars eases the decision making. Again that’s 25 million dollars

  93. Litke 94 says:

    The more I think about it, the less inclined I am to pile on Nicholson without knowing all of the information. This is a seriously grey scenario.

    Playing hypothetical here, but what if Connor’s camp said to Bob, “Hey, we know you’re interviewing a litany of GM candidates right now. We suspect they’ll ask about Connor. We are keeping this as close to the chest as possible, so you’ll only share X and that’s it. Understood?”

    What do you do if you’re Bob in that situation? Ideally, you would want to give the dude signing a 5 year contract a head’s up, but there would be a non-zero risk that he balks at the offer upon hearing the news. Following that, there would be a non-zero chance that the information is leaked to the league.

    It may be a low percentage chance that both of those scenarios play out, but let’s say it’s a 10% chance. Do you take those kinds of odds at risk of breaking the trust of your star player, possibly pissing him off even further following 2 seasons of non-playoff hockey?

    It’s a tough call. Without knowing what Connor’s camp told Bob he could share, and without knowing what Ken means when he said he didn’t know the full extent of the injury, I think it is too early to make a firm call either way.

  94. Bag of Pucks says:

    Litke 94,

    The player doesn’t dictate the terms of public disclosure. If that were true, all injuries would be concealed.

    • Litke 94 says:

      That may be so, but I could tell you that if I was Bob, and Connor’s agent came to me and said, “You say the knee is a work in progress and things are looking good in rehab”, I would follow those instructions.

      I’d rather piss of Ken Holland than McDavid in that situation. And in Ken’s case, he’d at least have a cool $25 million dollars to ease the pain.

      Piss off McDavid by leaking info when specifically asked not to? He may bolt.

      I’m not saying that it is likely at all, but I can certainly see both sides and I’d be super interested in learning the full extent of how those conversations played out.

      • Bag of Pucks says:

        If you want to speculate a bunch of reasons why Bobby Burgers can’t be honest in his dealings with people, fill your boots.

        We have the facts as reported on this one and in addition to past behaviours, that’s enough for me.

        • Litke 94 says:

          That’s fair. I’d disagree that we have all the facts, but agree that Bobby’s record isn’t great and that doesn’t help his case here.

  95. defmn says:

    I thought this was an interesting comment by Lehner (below) made in Friedman’s 31 Thoughts this week since the value of goalies has been part of the discussion the last couple of days.

    It is my understanding from his days in Detroit that Holland holds a similar view – that there are a few goalies that are exceptional at any given time but that the next tier of ‘serviceable’ are all closely lumped and the team is better off spending on forwards and dmen than counting on another mil improving the goalie position.

    ///This led into another conversation about how we are still looking for proper methods of evaluating goalies. He said performance is more tied to overall team play than most people acknowledge — that John Gibson didn’t all of a sudden get bad this season. Lehner did say, however, that NHL goalies should stop every clear-eye shot they face. “We get paid enough to do that.”///

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilClog: Couldn’t Archie just return to the bottom 6 and boost them up? Isn’t there a concern that if Archie sits on the top line then he too will have a inflated contract demand? What is a natural fit alongside McDavid when he makes all line mates walk on water and uses whatever their skill is to his advantage? Isn’t Kassian skillset a natural fit? Fast, space opening, busy stick, always looking to feed McDavid. Knows 110% what his role is at all times with McDavid.. I’m sure the Oilers are going to just have a better natural fit fall into their laps, they have a great history of this. Wait didn’t they have a natural fit in Hall?

    I’ve had this comment reviewed by a neighbor that once had lunch with a second cousin to the uncle of a minority Flames owner, it’s all good folks.

    Of course, you “could” do that and that is almost undoubtedly what is going to happen.

    At the same time, in the most recent two games with Archie at 1RW the team played two very high end plus games.

    Maybe Archie proves to be more of a natural fit at 1RW with more time.

    He’s had some games up there earlier this year, when Kass was hurt, and faired well.

    Archie has 70 minutes with McDavid, so about 4 games, and, well, while the GF/60 is similar with Zack/McDavid and with Archie/McDavid, the GA/60 is WAAAAAAAY down with Connor/Archie. We know Zack isn’t a great defensive player and that Archie is a plus defensive player – maybe Archie is a better fit?

    I don’t actually believe that Archie is the better fit but the team rolled with him there and there is an argument to keep that going even with Kass available – maybe it helps Holland in negotiations with Kass if Archie/McDavid have another couple great games together.

  97. Harpers Hair says:

    PunjabiOil: The goal was short-term cap savings.

    Made more sense to bury out Sam Gagner and not have dead cap-hit in years 3 and 4.

    You also could have waived Brandon Manning at game 1 and not not after a half a season and that would also have provided short-term cap relief.

    Exactly.

    Buying out Gagner and not signing Chiasson was a much better strategy.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nicholson will be gone by the end of the year when he takes over from Rene Fasel as President of IIHF.

  99. Darth Tu says:

    ArmchairGM: Arbitration is going to look at comps though, and Morrissey is the closest one. Do you think they’ll award greater compensation to Nurse?

    It’s probably going to head to arbitration, eh? If so that’s probably not a bad thing for the Oilers cap. Might turn Nurse a bit sour on Holland, but if arbitration comes in around or under Morrissey’s number it’s a decent deal.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB: What about the Oilers getting a top 3 spot in the Pacific and Calgary getting the wildcard spot that crosses over to the Central ? Then the Oilers and Flames could meet in the WC Finals.

    That would include the flames winning playoff games and rounds – gross.

    I’ll take them one point out of the playoffs, each and every year – along with disposing of their first round pick for a rental.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    PunjabiOil: The goal was short-term cap savings.

    Made more sense to bury out Sam Gagner and not have dead cap-hit in years 3 and 4.

    You also could have waived Brandon Manning at game 1 and not not after a half a season and that would also have provided short-term cap relief.

    Burying either Manning or Gagner in the minors saves just over $1M on the cap but then, of course, they are replaced on the NHL roster by a player with a cap hit of no $700K plus so the savings are vastly reduce.

  102. Bulging Twine says:

    defmn:
    I thought this was an interesting comment by Lehner (below) made in Friedman’s 31 Thoughts this week since the value of goalies has been part of the discussion the last couple of days.

    It is my understanding from his days in Detroit that Holland holds a similar view – that there are a few goalies that are exceptional at any given time but that the next tier of ‘serviceable’ are all closely lumped and the team is better off spending on forwards and dmen than counting on another mil improving the goalie position.

    ///This led into another conversation about how we are still looking for proper methods of evaluating goalies. He said performance is more tied to overall team play than most people acknowledge — that John Gibson didn’t all of a sudden get bad this season. Lehner did say, however, that NHL goalies should stop every clear-eye shot they face. “We get paid enough to do that.”///

    The Jets would be a good opportunity to study the affects of Dmen on save % year over year after losing 4 of their top 5.

    A super simplistic look doesn’t reveal too much, more in depth would be needed regarding shot quality etc.

    Broissoit save % went from .925 last year to .883 this year

    ‘Fading’ Hellebuyck .913 to .917

    • Bulging Twine says:

      Maybe bad goalies need good D and good goalies can cover up for bad D – till they fade

  103. Scungilli Slushy says:

    pts2pndr: Had they kept Sekera they would be paying his 5.5 plus Russels 4.5 for third pairing LD. How would that fit in the cap. At the time they bought out Sekera his health was suspect. It was the prudent thing to do.

    Holland tried to trade Russell as reports said in the summer. His list was perhaps the problem, and that the last year of the contract is where he becomes cash cheap to the buyer.

    Perhaps he preferred Seksy, I would have. Buyouts suck hind teet.

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    v4ance: Exactly my thoughts.

    If NHL GMs were to get better at their jobs, there would be much fewer big dollar/big term contracts after the age of 28; especially for forwards.That’s an inefficiency that’s ripe to be targeted by a smart team who can use more of those cap dollars on younger “in their prime” players.

    Bridge contracts after ELC are how that happens. That Nurse was bridged means the Oiler GM has options. Nurse is 33 at the 8 year re-up.

    That means he can be dealt if it helps with term after enjoying the heart of his career and refresh the talent pool.

    A good GM will make those hard and unpopular in the moment decisions that keep the org strong over time. Only retire exceptional iconic players, unless the player is reacquired after being dealt for a haul and comes back cheap.

  105. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bulging Twine:
    # of Goalies chosen per round 2003-2014

    1-17
    2-36
    3-41
    4-36
    5-44
    6-50
    7-41

    Super interesting thanks for doing the work!

    I have the feeling that a lot of the top performing goalers were taken in the first round.

    Of course there are always fails, would be interesting to check that out.

    Rask Price and Vas are all first rounders.

  106. Bulging Twine says:

    Just a thought but, I wonder if part of the reason that the Oilers played real good the last two games was them saying to Kassian, “we got you bro'”.
    It would have looked bad to lose the two games that he was suspended.
    Obviously they wanted to win anyways but during an 82 game season it seems like the difference between winning and losing a particular game is extra motivation. A small increase in that regards makes a big difference.

    Team is way more metaphysical/spiritual/emotional/relational than often it’s given credit for in the sports world.

    Kassian, by all accounts, is a well liked teammate

  107. Bank Shot says:

    v4ance: Exactly my thoughts.

    If NHL GMs were to get better at their jobs, there would be much fewer big dollar/big term contracts after the age of 28; especially for forwards.That’s an inefficiency that’s ripe to be targeted by a smart team who can use more of those cap dollars on younger “in their prime” players.

    Well that is easier said than done. If GMs had younger in their prime players to sign, they wouldn’t throw a bunch of money at free agents. Unfortunately the talent in the NHL is finite, and you don’t always have a bunch of young players of your own that need raises.

    When that is the case, you can sit on your hands and not improve the team and probably get fired for failing to do anything, or gamble on free agents and potentially improve your team.

  108. defmn says:

    Bulging Twine,

    When goalies are hot they skew every attempt to quantify them. As a coach you just ride them as long as the streak lasts and be thankful they pad your win/loss record too. The problem seems to be that it is very difficult to impossible to know when they are going to do that and when they are going to be their ordinary selves. 😉

  109. who says:

    I’m going to wait for the details before I get too upset over Kassians next contract. But I can’t help shaking my head over some of the opinions floated here.
    Opinion #1.
    Kassian doesn’t produce at even strength unless he plays with McDavid.
    How do we know?
    Kassian was a drunk until he got to Edmonton. Before McDavid, Kassian had the “privilege” of playing with Mark Letestu and the ghost of Kyle Brodziak. People say that Connelly managed to score with Lars Eller as his center, but Eller is a hell of a lot better player than those two deadbeats.
    Opinion #2
    Anyone can score with McDavid and therefore Josh Archibald can replace Kassian.
    Maybe? But I’ll need to see more than 2 good games with McDavid before I’m convinced. In the 1st half of the season Archibald struggled to control the puck or make a simple play. He brings a lot of speed and energy, and is an excellent penalty killer, but long term, on Mcdavids wing, seems like a stretch.
    Opinion #3
    Kassian is about to fall off a cliff.
    Again, maybe?
    He’s also a much better skater than most power forwards, with no history of leg injuries. He could just as easily have 4 or 5 good years left in him.
    Bottom line.
    Kassian is big, can skate, can make and take a pass, and is a possession monster in the ozone. He’s not a natural goal scorer, but are we sure we can replace him with a 3 to 4 million dollar UFA?

  110. Bulging Twine says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Super interesting thanks for doing the work!

    I have the feeling that a lot of the top performing goalers were taken in the first round.

    Of course there are always fails, would be interesting to check that out.

    Rask Price and Vas are all first rounders.

    Thanks SS/you’re welcome.

    That would be! To try to pin down where the elite goalies come from.
    Okay I’ll semi take the bait.

    Totally non-technical, just cherry picking based on ‘name’:

    Elite goalies and where they were drafted:

    Rask, Vas, Price, Fleury – 4 – 1st Rounders (surprising actually that it is this low)

    Gibson, Crawford or Lehner (elitish? 1 elite in past, 1 only recently), Koskinen (kidding) – 3 – 2nd rounders

    Bishop, Andersen, Binnington (half a good year), Anderson (used to be, and underrated imo), Murray (2 cups), *the study is breaking down, I need a definition of elite, Quick – 6 – 3rd rounders

    Holtby – 1 – 4th rounder

    Hellebuyck, Smith (certainly was in his Arizona days) – 2 – 5th rounders

    Kuemper??? (what am I doing agian?) – 1 – 6th rounder

    Lundqvist – 1 – 7th rounder

    Rinne – 1 – prehistoric 8th rounder

    Bobrovsky – 1 – undrafted

    • Bulging Twine says:

      I wouldn’t stake an Amateur Scouting career on it but it looks like the third round is the best bang for your buck for drafting goalies

      • Bulging Twine says:

        I should take Binnington out of there. For some reason I can’t edit my posts though

        • Bulging Twine says:

          Obviously the hit rate on 1st round goalies is higher but that whiff rate is pretty high as well.
          I’d like to compare it to the hit/whiff rate on FW’s

  111. duct tape and foil says:

    A couple of things wrt Kassian:

    1) comparing his performance over the last 12 months to prior periods is pretty much pointless (hey I can do alliteration!). He had a substance abuse problem and his life was out of control until he signed with the Oilers. After he was clean it was very clear that the Thoroughly Mediocre Coach had no intension of playing him with anybody aside from studs like Letestu and Brodziak on the 4th line. Didn’t matter how he played. Since he’s cleaned up and got a supportive coach, he’s been uniformly solid in whatever role he’s been given. The recent sample size is small but comparing the two situations is apples and oranges.

    2) the other thing is that some people on this site enthusiastically adopt the McNamara fallacy without understanding or reservation. This involves making decision solely on quantitative observations and ignoring everything else because alternative information (often qualitative) cannot be proven. Kass has some significant intangibles (and that word is not a pejorative in my books).

    From Daniel Yankelovich who wrote on the topic, “the first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can’t be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can’t be measured easily really isn’t important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can’t be easily measured really doesn’t exist. This is suicide.”

    All that said, my limit would be $10 million over 3 years. Giving the team that saved your career (and maybe your life) a small break seems like the gracious thing to do.

  112. ArmchairGM says:

    Bulging Twine: I think these are the more important items in the conversation.

    Especially the latter.

    So you’re saying Slepyshev gets $4M x 4. Got it.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: It’s probably going to head to arbitration, eh? If so that’s probably not a bad thing for the Oilers cap.Might turn Nurse a bit sour on Holland, but if arbitration comes in around or under Morrissey’s number it’s a decent deal.

    It would for sure because arbitration is a bridge – it will be for a one year term (it can be for one or two years, team option, and 2 years takes him to UFA so, clearly one year).

  114. PunjabiOil says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    That was a typo

    Meant buy out Gagner and bury manning in the minors (1M of cap space saved which could have been used on Sekera at the NHL level).

    They didn’t really save too much short term buying out Sekera versus had they bought out Gagner.

  115. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    defmn:
    . He said performance is more tied to overall team play than most people acknowledge — that John Gibson didn’t all of a sudden get bad this season.

    – I says “Pardon”! That’s a “Kinger Cut and Paste Special”…

  116. leadfarmer says:

    3 years ago I had a tibial plateau fracture and was told I’d never ski again like I used to
    My friend did the surgery
    3 years later I can ski like I used to
    Took a lot of work but I got there
    But not having surgery was not an option some of the bone and cartilage had to be rotated 180 degrees and lifted an inch to get back into position
    Glad to hear Mcdavid could do it without surgery

  117. Jethro Tull says:

    Lol , does anyone remember “being sold a bill of goods”?

    Omitting relevant information when specifically asked is as bad as lying. It’s not a defense.

    If Bob was playing “nudge, nudge, wink, wink” then Ken certainly didn’t pick up on it.

    Ken was supposed to be hired to bring probity to the position, due to some terrible optics in the past. That he was hired using means that he himself was supposed to eradicate is ironic.

    The Oilers senior management rolled the dice to sell tickets and employ people under the pretense that there was nothing wrong with Connor. Shameful.

  118. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Obviously the hit rate on 1st round goalies is higher but that whiff rate is pretty high as well.
    I’d like to compare it to the hit/whiff rate on FW’s

    Thx
    It seems to me like top level goalers are taken high. The issue certainly is that it’s very hard to project outcomes.

    But that is also hard for other positions as well, if not as hard.

    I think if you have good intel and there is a goaler that seems elite I’d take him if there aren’t more pressing needs.

    Elite goalies are as much a backbone as anyone but hard to find. Which I believe is why goalies have been often taken in later rounds.

    So kudos to Parkatti in trying to refine the look into what quality looks like. The team that gets that down first will have a HUGE advantage.

    And for the love of hockey please Ken invest in the best goalie coach you can get!!!

  119. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    leadfarmer:
    3 years ago I had a tibial plateau fracture and was told I’d never ski again like I used to
    My friend did the surgery
    3 years later I can ski like I used to
    Took a lot of work but I got there
    But not having surgery was not an option some of the bone and cartilage had to be rotated 180 degrees and lifted an inch to get back into position
    Glad to hear Mcdavid could do it without surgery

    – Yeah: his rehab was stunning. I had a ACL+MCL surgery, and an innovative one: spent a long time researching it, getting the right Dr as well, pulled a lot of strings to be his patient:

    – The Dr. who performed it we became best friends (he’s godfather to my son): one of world’s best: moved to the U.S. works with the NFL among others. Anyway he was skeptical about the worst-case claims that came out from the McD “teaser”: I asked him, he was “LOL!”

    – The science now is just incredible for top athletes to recover from these kind of things, he says: but its a specail athlete to be able to execute to the level CmD did.

  120. OilClog says:

    I think if Holland walks into a negotiation with Kassian’s agent, Rick Curran… who just happens to work with the agency that Connor McDavid is represented by… Trying to use Archibald’s 2 games as fill in as some sort of negotiation advantage, not too sure if that leads to a healthy long term relationship in the bigger picture. But hey maybe they’ll cave, pull a oh shit you got us.

  121. Nit64 says:

    Nothing like the smell of napalm in the morning or Oil blogs. Every injury there’s a range of possible short term and long term consequences. If no surgery was even an option that’s good news in most places in spite of the extra level of uncertainty involved.

  122. defmn says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I says “Pardon”!That’s a “Kinger Cut and Paste Special”…

    Yeah, I thought of you when I read it. 😉

  123. godot10 says:

    OilClog:
    I think if Holland walks into a negotiation with Kassian’s agent, Rick Curran… who just happens to work with the agency that Connor McDavid is represented by… Trying to use Archibald’s 2 games as fill in as some sort of negotiation advantage, not too sure if that leads to a healthy long term relationship in the bigger picture. But hey maybe they’ll cave, pull a oh shit you got us.

    You have seen Woodguy’s analysis of every winger who has played with McDavid. Kassian is meh…Nothing special… In the Nicole of the pack.

  124. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Thx
    It seems to me like top level goalers are taken high. The issue certainly is that it’s very hard to project outcomes.

    But that is also hard for other positions as well, if not as hard.

    I think if you have good intel and there is a goaler that seems elite I’d take him if there aren’t more pressing needs.

    Elite goalies are as much a backbone as anyone but hard to find. Which I believe is why goalies have been often taken in later rounds.

    So kudos to Parkatti in trying to refine the look into what quality looks like. The team that gets that down first will have a HUGE advantage.

    And for the love of hockey please Ken invest in the best goalie coach you can get!!!

    Top 10 goaltenders by save percentage this season (minimum 20 games played)

    Darcy Kuemper .929 6th round

    Tristan Jarry .929 2nd round

    Ben Bishop .927 3rd round

    Anton Khudobin .927 7th round

    Elvis Merzlikens .926 3rd round

    Tukka Rask .925 1st round

    Thomas Griess .926 3rd round

    Pavel Francouz .925 Undrafted

    Robin Lehner .922 2nd round

    James Reimer .921 4th round

  125. Yegfoundation says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Good Points.Where’s Godot and what did you do to him?

    GODOT has always been this good.

  126. YKOil says:

    Hrmmm…

    Bury Manning’s salary saves $1.075m less ~ $750k for replacement = $325k saved

    Buy-out Gagner saves ~ $2.1m + Mannings $325k = ~ 2.4m+

    Sekera buy-out saved $3.0m

    It was doable. That said, I did want Sekera’s spot for a d-man.

    Original sin(s) remains buy-out of Pouliot, signing of Lucic, buy-out of Gryba, etc. With a few, admittedly awesome, exceptions, Chia royally f&*ked-over this teams Cap management.

  127. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: Top 10 goaltenders by save percentage this season (minimum 20 games played)

    Darcy Kuemper .929 6th round

    Tristan Jarry .929 2nd round

    Ben Bishop .927 3rd round

    Anton Khudobin .927 7th round

    Elvis Merzlikens .926 3rd round

    Tukka Rask .925 1st round

    Thomas Griess .926 3rd round

    Pavel Francouz .925 Undrafted

    Robin Lehner .922 2nd round

    James Reimer .921 4th round

    Thanks for doing that, I was thinking more on a career level.

    I’ve never been one for games played comparisons that we see for skaters. 250 4th line minutes aren’t as much a success for the team as is it for the player.

    I want to know who the impact or top end players are and what is the route they show up on.

    I mentioned the goalers I did because they have had sustained high level success, even if Price has faded in the last few, albeit on a weak team.

    In the end, if there is a high end goalie in the first round that is more than a good player, and there is no BPA that is clear, and especially if you need a goaler, because it’s a first round pick is not a reason to avoid making the selection.

    Edit – not 4th line minutes, I meant games.

  128. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: I would say that Connolly is NOT a good comp for Kass. Connolly has a history of production even while playing on the 3rd line in Washington with Lars Eller as his center, Kassian doesn’t produce unless he’s with McDavid.

    I’m not enthused with the idea that Kassian may get 4 X $3.5M. And I think it’s clear that Connolly is a better goal scorer than Kassian, no debate there (agree he’s not a great comp).

    It’s also true that Kassian has had relatively poor /60 scoring rates for a couple of years before this one. But this talk of Kassian not scoring at all without McDavid is real hyperbole, and is really only something that happened last season.

    Kassian’s 5v5 P/60 by year, since he’s been a semi-regular:
    12-13 1.04
    13-14 1.91
    14-15 1.82
    15-16 1.12
    16-17 1.66
    17-18 1.29
    18-19 1.32
    19-20 2.33

    He’s only dipped to a 4th line rate once in the past 7 years. Whatever you think Kassian is worth he’s actually done a really decent job of providing secondary scoring through most of his career.

    I’d like to reiterate that this is not an argument for signing Kassian to a big deal, just some pushback to the idea that Kassian “doesn’t produce unless he’s with McDavid”.

  129. Reja says:

    v4ance: cap

    I’ll go with Keith on that one.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil:
    Hrmmm…

    Bury Manning’s salary saves $1.075m less ~ $750k for replacement = $325k saved

    Buy-out Gagner saves ~ $2.1m + Mannings $325k = ~ 2.4m+

    Sekera buy-out saved $3.0m

    It was doable.That said, I did want Sekera’s spot for a d-man.

    Original sin(s) remains buy-out of Pouliot, signing of Lucic, buy-out of Gryba, etc.With a few, admittedly awesome, exceptions, Chia royally f&*ked-over this teams Cap management.

    What about the Gagner replacement on the roster for $700K plus?

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: You have seen Woodguy’s analysis of every winger who has played with McDavid.Kassian is meh…Nothing special… In the Nicole of the pack.

    How about how Connor feels? I would wager having a player that has his back means something.

    Lucic was suppose to be that, but turns out he picks his spots.

    The only defence against Connor is a physical one. He is a rare player. They get in his way , pick hook back and hold him, without a consequence from the refs.

    Until that changes perhaps an on ice answer is necessary.

  132. Reja says:

    duct tape and foil:
    A couple of things wrt Kassian:

    1) comparing his performance over the last 12 months to prior periods is pretty much pointless (hey I can do alliteration!). He had a substance abuse problem and his life was out of control until he signed with the Oilers. After he was clean it was very clear that the Thoroughly Mediocre Coach had no intension of playing him with anybody aside from studs like Letestu and Brodziak on the 4th line. Didn’t matter how he played. Since he’s cleaned up and got a supportive coach, he’s been uniformly solid in whatever role he’s been given. The recent sample size is small but comparing the two situations is apples and oranges.

    2) the other thing is that some people on this site enthusiastically adopt the McNamara fallacy without understanding or reservation. This involves making decision solely on quantitative observations and ignoring everything else because alternative information (often qualitative) cannot be proven. Kass has some significant intangibles (and that word is not a pejorative in my books).

    From Daniel Yankelovich who wrote on the topic, “the first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can’t be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can’t be measured easily really isn’t important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can’t be easily measured really doesn’t exist. This is suicide.”

    All that said, my limit would be $10 million over 3 years. Giving the team that saved your career (and maybe your life) a small break seems like the gracious thing to do.

    That’s my prediction 3×3:33=10 million but I imagine he’s gunning for 4 years at 12 million that’s my final guess. Hopefully it’s signed before the Calgary rematches where a happy and motivated Kass scores a couple of big goals and takes care of other business. If Holland’s in the signing mood lock up Archie at 1.25 a year I like watching this player he’s got heart.

  133. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: How about how Connor feels? I would wager having a player that has his back means something.

    Lucic was suppose to be that, but turns out he picks his spots.

    The only defence against Connor is a physical one. He is a rare player. They get in his way , pick hook back and hold him, without a consequence from the refs.

    Until that changes perhaps an on ice answer is necessary.

    Kassian hasn’t even glanced Giordano’s way. How exactly has he had McDavid’s back. Losing control against Tkachuk means that he is even more useless as a protector since his every move will be scrutinized.

    There hasn’t been any less hacking and stashing since Kassian has been moved to Connor’s line.

  134. Bulging Twine says:

    Sorry for posting so much – my friends wouldn’t really be interested in this stuff – but I was really surprised to find that 48% of FW’s that have played in at least 35 games this season were drafted in the first round.

    Spurred by Scungilli Slushy’s question about upper tier goalers I was thinking I should ask that of the FW’s. Cuz why am I lumping Gaetan Haas in with RNH.

    To discover where top 6 FW’s come from I narrowed it down to FW’s who have played 35+ games and 15:00 minutes per game.

    There are 190 (6.1 per team)

    116 were drafted in the first round 61.1%!

    26 in round 2 – 13.7%

    17 in round 3 – 8.9%

    7 in round 4 – 3.7%

    3 in round 5 – 1.6%

    7 in round 6 – 3.7%

    4 in round 7 – 2.1%

    10 undrafted – 5.3%

    61% of top 6 FW’s come from the first round. That is a high number. It drops all the way down to 13.7% in round 2.

    It makes me see that the hockey scouts are doing better than I thought they were as they pretty much have the players figured out at an early age.

    1st round, Free agency, trade, or if lucky the 2nd or 3rd round is where the Oilers will have to get their missing top 6 FW.

    If Benson makes it there…cudos to him and the organization he’s beat the odds.

  135. Bulging Twine says:

    For Defencemen

    20 minute a nighters:

    94 have played in at least 20 games and 20:00+ per game. 3 per team

    Drafted:

    45 – Round 1 – 47.9%
    17 – Round 2 – 18.1%
    8 – Round 3 – 8.5%
    9 – Round 4 – 9.6%
    3 – Round 5 – 3.2%
    4 – Round 6 – 4.3%
    2 – Round 7 – 2.1%
    6 – Undrafted – 6.4%

    Less % in the 1st round than FW’s but still a large proportion come from here.
    A higher % found in the 2nd than FW’s
    Round 3 basically the same
    Round 4 is interesting, almost 6% more found here than at FW

    Oilers have one of those 3 fifth rounders playing more than 20 minutes a game. What a huge competitive edge that is to hit on a 5th rounder. And what a player he is.

  136. Bulging Twine says:

    The biggest takeaway:

    1st Round picks are massive

  137. ArmchairGM says:

    Bank Shot: If GMs had younger in their prime players to sign, they wouldn’t throw a bunch of money at free agents.

    Kyle Dubas sends his regards.

  138. ArmchairGM says:

    who:
    I’m going to wait for the details before I get too upset over Kassians next contract. But I can’t help shaking my head over some of the opinions floated here.
    Opinion #1.
    Kassian doesn’t produce at even strength unless he plays with McDavid.
    How do we know?
    Kassian was a drunk until he got to Edmonton. Before McDavid, Kassian had the “privilege” of playing with Mark Letestu and the ghost of Kyle Brodziak. People say that Connelly managed to score with Lars Eller as his center, but Eller is a hell of a lot better player than those two deadbeats.
    Opinion #2
    Anyone can score with McDavid and therefore Josh Archibald can replace Kassian.
    Maybe? But I’ll need to see more than 2 good games with McDavid before I’m convinced. In the 1st half ofthe season Archibald struggled to control the puck or make a simple play. He brings a lot of speed and energy, and is an excellent penalty killer, but long term, on Mcdavids wing, seems like a stretch.
    Opinion #3
    Kassian is about to fall off a cliff.
    Again, maybe?
    He’s also a much better skater than most power forwards, with no history of leg injuries. He could just as easily have 4 or 5 good years left in him.
    Bottom line.
    Kassian is big,can skate, can make and take a pass, and is a possession monster in the ozone. He’s not a natural goal scorer, but are we sure we can replace him with a 3 to 4 million dollar UFA?

    I guess you missed my post up near the top…

  139. ArmchairGM says:

    Jethro Tull: The Oilers senior management rolled the dice to sell tickets and employ people under the pretense that there was nothing wrong with Connor. Shameful.

    So THAT’S why it was so important that nothing leaked – there were millions and millions of dollars at stake!

    • Jethro Tull says:

      Follow the money. A wise person once told me that if you are wondering why someone or some company made a strange decision, then follow the money.

  140. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: I’m not enthused with the idea that Kassian may get 4 X $3.5M. And I think it’s clear that Connolly is a better goal scorer than Kassian, no debate there (agree he’s not a great comp).

    It’s also true that Kassian has had relatively poor /60 scoring rates for a couple of years before this one. But this talk of Kassian not scoring at all without McDavid is real hyperbole, and is really only something that happened last season.

    Kassian’s 5v5 P/60 by year, since he’s been a semi-regular:
    12-13 1.04
    13-14 1.91
    14-15 1.82
    15-16 1.12
    16-17 1.66
    17-18 1.29
    18-19 1.32
    19-20 2.33

    He’s only dipped to a 4th line rate once in the past 7 years. Whatever you think Kassian is worth he’s actually done a really decent job of providing secondary scoring through most of his career.

    I’d like to reiterate that this is not an argument for signing Kassian to a big deal, just some pushback to the idea that Kassian “doesn’t produce unless he’s with McDavid”.

    He produces – most years – at a third line rate. Which is a nice player to have, but not at top-6 money. A 3rd liner who doesn’t PK is not an especially valuable player. In fact, the Oilers have a good comp already on the roster: Alex Chiasson. Looking back at the past 3.5 years, here are Chasser’s 5v5 P/60 next to your list for Kassian’s for comparison’s sake:

    Year Kassian — Chiasson

    16-17 1.66 — 1.28
    17-18 1.29 — 1.27
    18-19 1.32 — 1.25
    19-20 2.33 — 0.78

    Broadly similar – except, of course, for this year. And yet Holland was widely panned in the summer past for giving Chiasson a $2.15M x 2 contract, as it was considered an overpay. We should look at goals, too, because lets be honest: both players are getting paid to put the puck in the net and provide physicality, neither are considered playmakers, neither are especially good defensively, neither PK. Chiasson has a record of PP success, Kassian does not.

    Year Kassian — Chiasson (5v5 G/60)

    16-17 0.48 — 0.70
    17-18 0.57 — 0.64
    18-19 0.69 — 0.75
    19-20 1.16 — 0.39

  141. ArmchairGM says:

    Bulging Twine:
    For Defencemen

    20 minute a nighters:

    94 have played in at least 20 games and 20:00+ per game.3 per team

    Drafted:

    45 – Round 1 – 47.9%
    17 – Round 2 – 18.1%
    8– Round 3 – 8.5%
    9 – Round 4 – 9.6%
    3 – Round 5 – 3.2%
    4 – Round 6 – 4.3%
    2 – Round 7 – 2.1%
    6 – Undrafted – 6.4%

    Less % in the 1st round than FW’s but still a large proportion come from here.
    A higher % found in the 2nd than FW’s
    Round 3 basically the same
    Round 4 is interesting, almost 6% more found here than at FW

    Oilers have one of those 3 fifth rounders playing more than 20 minutes a game.What a huge competitive edge that is to hit on a 5th rounder.And what a player he is.

    Thanks for doing all this work, BT – very interesting and much appreciated!

  142. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: He produces – most years – at a third line rate.

    5v5/60 rates last season were:
    1st line >2.01
    2nd line 2.01-1.64
    3rd line 1.64-1.24
    4th line <1.24

    Kassian has only failed to score at a 3rd line rate once in the past 7 seasons. His last seasons by scoring rate:
    1st line – 1
    2nd line – 3
    3rd line – 2
    4th line – 1

    ArmchairGM: Which is a nice player to have, but not at top-6 money.

    Sure, likely not.

    ArmchairGM:
    In fact, the Oilers have a good comp already on the roster: Alex Chiasson. Looking back at the past 3.5 years, here are Chasser’s 5v5 P/60 next to your list for Kassian’s for comparison’s sake:

    YearKassian — Chiasson

    16-17 1.66 — 1.28
    17-18 1.29 — 1.27
    18-19 1.32 — 1.25
    19-20 2.33 — 0.78

    Broadly similar – except, of course, for this year.

    If that looks “broadly similar” to you then maybe Connolly is a decent comp for Kassian after all?

    Year – Kassian – Connolly
    13-14 1.91 – only 11 GP 0.51/60
    14-15 1.82 – 1.56
    15-16 1.12 – 1.29
    16-17 1.66 – 1.98
    17-18 1.29 – 1.74
    18-19 1.32 – 2.66
    19-20 2.33 – 2.13

    I don’t actually think the Kassian-Connolly numbers are that similar. Likewise the Kassian-Chiasson numbers – the 2 players P/60 literally don’t even overlap…

    As I said I don’t want to give Kassian $3M+ with term. But a lot of folks are painting Kassian way short of reality in trying argue what figure and term he should get on this next deal.

  143. godot10 says:

    jp: 5v5/60 rates last season were:
    1st line >2.01
    2nd line 2.01-1.64
    3rd line 1.64-1.24
    4th line <1.24

    Kassian has only failed to score at a 3rd line rate once in the past 7 seasons. His last seasons by scoring rate:
    1st line – 1
    2nd line – 3
    3rd line – 2
    4th line – 1

    Sure, likely not.

    If that looks “broadly similar” to you then maybe Connolly is a decent comp for Kassian after all?

    Year – Kassian – Connolly
    13-14 1.91 – only 11 GP 0.51/60
    14-15 1.82 – 1.56
    15-16 1.12 – 1.29
    16-17 1.66 – 1.98
    17-18 1.29 – 1.74
    18-19 1.32 – 2.66
    19-20 2.33 – 2.13

    I don’t actually think the Kassian-Connolly numbers are that similar. Likewise the Kassian-Chiasson numbers – the 2 players P/60 literally don’t even overlap…

    As I said I don’t want to give Kassian $3M+ with term. But a lot of folks are painting Kassian way short of reality in trying argue what figure and term he should get on this next deal.

    I am pretty much his biggest critic. My assertion has been that he is an aging bottom six winger who doesn’t PK. How is that mischaraterizing him? Why would one give duration to an aging bottom six forward who cannot PK?

    Neal is signed for three more years and doesn’t PK, and is an aging bottom six winger who doesn’t PK.

    How many of these guys does one need? Considering what is being retained on Lucic, if one pays Kassian $3 million with duration, one is spending nearly $10 million on two of these guys, one eighthof the cap, on two replacement level players.

    Like Kassian, Neal also provides some physicality.

  144. jp says:

    godot10: I am pretty much his biggest critic.My assertion has been that he is an aging bottom six winger who doesn’t PK.How is that mischaraterizing him?Why would one give duration to an aging bottom six forward who cannot PK?

    Neal is signed for three more years and doesn’t PK, and is an aging bottom six winger who doesn’t PK.

    How many of these guys does one need? Considering what is being retained on Lucic, if one pays Kassian $3 million with duration, one is spending nearly $10 million on two of these guys, one eighthof the cap, on two replacement level players.

    Like Kassian, Neal also provides some physicality.

    The mischaracterization is that Kassian doesn’t score without McDavid. And/or that he scores at 4th line rates for the most part.

    He’s scored like a top 6 player in 4 of the last 7 seasons. Only 1 of those was aided by McDavid.

    He is aging, but he turned 29 today. This is not Neal, and certainly no one is suggesting giving Kassian more than 3-4 years on a deal.

    I think I’ve also been consistent in saying I am NOT advocating term or big money for Kassian. I do however think he’s a better player than you and many others are claiming.

    I would for instance suggest that calling Kassian “replacement level” is a mischaracterization.

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