Game 40 2019-20: Barracuda at Condors

Ethan Bear. Patrick Russell. Sam Gagner. Caleb Jones. Kailer Yamamoto. William Lagesson. In the 40 years of the Edmonton Oilers as an NHL franchise, finding solutions to real problems inside the high skill positions from the farm is a fairly rare item. Condors recalls have played in 169 games this season (Bear and Russell made the big club out of camp so I’m cheating a little). The kicker? There’s more to come.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Thomas Drance: Inside how ‘Okanagan boy’ Ken Holland helped bring back the Penticton Young Stars tournament
  • New Jonathan Willis: Oilers minor-league defenceman Brandon Manning suspended five games for racial slur
  • New Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • New Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • New Lowetide: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
  • Lowetide:  Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers make a smart two-year bet on Caleb Jones, who has done nothing but improve
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 3 things from the latest Oilers win: A lacrosse goal, Mike Smith’s resurgence and Connor McDavid’s new linemate
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A defiant Zack Kassian issues his latest salvo against Matthew Tkachuk: ‘He messed with the wrong guy’
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
  • Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
  • LowetideKen Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019

CONDORS 2019-20

Brandon Manning has been suspended and the club ran multiple lines in the last game because they dressed eight blue, so it’s anyone’s guess what we’ll see tonight.

Manning broke AHL rule 23.9, for use of a racial slur against an opponent. On MLK day.

Stuart Skinner is having an interesting January. In seven games, he’s 3-3-0 (the team is 0-2-1 without him) with a goals against average of 2.81 and a save percentage of .918. I don’t know that he’s winning an NHL job, but he sure looks like the best option.

Evan Bouchard is running strong now, in 12 games since Christmas he is 7-6 in even strength goal differential, 28 shots, four goals and four assists. Edmonton may not make room for him until the summer, so we may not see him this season in Edmonton.

Tyler Benson might be playing his final AHL games this week. I don’t think that’s likely, but it’s possible. One thing the organization may be looking for this year is a spike in goals. Benson’s shot rate in his final junior season (27 goals on 232 shots in 58 games) was four per game, with a shooting percentage of 11.6. In the AHL as a rookie in 2018-19, he had 173 shots in 68 games as a rookie (2.54 per game) with an 8.7 shooting percentage. This season, he has 90 shots in 39 games (2.31 per game) and a 8.9 shooting percentage.

If Benson is recalled, and has enough success to stay (my reasonable expectations had him playing 34 NHL games this season, scoring five goals and seven assists), that might change the deadline shopping list.

The discerning Condors/Oilers fan will now be wondering about next season. With Bear, Jones, Yamamoto, Lagesson and Benson gone, who is going to step up? Among the blue, I think Bouchard will probably be in the NHL next season. So the prospect defensemen in Bakersfield will be Dmitri Samorukov, Logan Day, Filip Berglund and possibly Philip Broberg. Maybe you’ll see Markus Niemelainen or Philip Kemp as well.

Forwards? Raphael Lavoie will turn pro and is likely to earn a feature role ala Benson as a rookie. Expect increased role in the AHL for both Kirill Maksimov and Ostap Safin, with Ryan McLeod becoming a more prominent player as well. I’d also bet on some college and CHL free-agent signings this spring.

I’m honestly not sure where to start with this story. There are so many angles to it. First, no one in the local or national media got the story, over 290 days and nights. That meant a large number of people who are close to Connor McDavid didn’t say a word about it to anyone outside the internal group. That is rare.

People will jump on the media for not getting this story early, and I get that, but let’s remember we’re dealing with some kind of Superman here. Based on Ryan Rishaug’s words above, and what we already know, McDavid had to make a quick decision about the rest of his life, bet on healing, worked like dammit to get it done and arrived in time to make opening night and oh by the way lead the league in scoring! Holy hell! For me, that’s the story. McDavid recovered quickly enough to camouflage the extent of the injury. I have 1/100 of the contacts that someone like Rishaug would have and I asked, believe me. Not a word. At some level, I’m impressed by the loyalty. In today’s world, it’s unique. On another level, what are they going to call the Super Hero movie they make about McDavid?

LARRY WALKER

The baseball hall of fame means a lot, mostly because it’s so damned difficult to get in. Larry Walker’s induction into the Hall will represent ‘some sweet day’ for a lot of people.

The one guy I had hoped would live to see the day, aside from Walker, is Jim Fanning. I’ve been damned hard on Fanning over many years, his taking over the Expos in 1981 (from Dick Williams) was ill-advised in my opinion.

However, it was Fanning who said that if he could ever find a Canadian boy who could flourish for the Expos, he’d had accomplished a goal that began with Montreal’s expansion. He was saying that around the time color commentator Duke Snider was saying the Expos needed a lefty bat with “hair on his ass” who could hit in the heart of the order.

Larry Walker was all of those things and he made it to the hall despite losing a year to injury in winter ball. The first MLB game I saw from him, he walked three times and hit a double. Buck Rodgers had him sixth in the order.

I’m pleased as punch Larry Walker made it. Music!

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

On the show today, at 10 this morning, TSN1260: We’ll talk McDavid, Walker and Manning with Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. We’ll also chat with Jeff Krushell about Walker and MLB’s winter, plus Joe Osborne from OddsShark pops in with NFL news and Super Bowl prop bets to make your mind buzz. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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281 Responses to "Game 40 2019-20: Barracuda at Condors"

« Older Comments
  1. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    You most lucid post in memory; truly a gem.

    Thank you.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    If the Oilers can’t terminate the contract for a player suspended for making a racist remark, in this era of virtue signaling, then they truly are incompetent.

    Aziz Ansari became a temporary pariah for going on a bad date ffs

    This is true, of course, if one decides to ignore the legality of contract and the CBA and the non-publically available practice notes, ancillary documents, which are issued in connection therewith and form part of.

    Perhaps they can terminate. Perhaps they cannot with the parameters.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hebig with a very nice goal.

    Takes a centering pass from Malone that was a bit behind him, kicked it up with his skate to his stick to go in all alone and bury it.

    Bouch with the second apple on a wonderful transition pass. Right on the stick of Malone in stride.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Darth Tu,

    Did Bill Peters have any priors?

    Bill Peters was not subject to a CBA and unionization.

  5. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Really digging in, eh?

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skinner has made a couple plus plus saves so far.

  7. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    The code is a response to that brand of officiating, not the other way around.

  8. rickithebear says:

    51gm into season: 31team x 8 Dpair = 248 pairs (93 EVTOI)
    Evga/60: league median (#124) 2.55
    No. 1 Russell – Benning 23gm, 162:36, 0.37 evga/60
    No. 17 Klefbom – Bear 49gm, 105:31, 1.14 evga/60
    No. 32 Klefbom – Russell 48gm, 159:43, 1.50 evga/60
    No. 63 Russell – Larsson 26gm, 94:03, 1.91 evga/60
    No. 75 Russell – Jones 23gm, 172:04, 2.09 evga/60
    ———————————————————————- below 2.55 is negative goal diff/60
    No. 143 Klefbom – Larsson 27gm, 306:10, 2.74 evga/60
    No. 161 Klefbom – Persson 13gm, 163:13, 2.94 evga/60
    No. 209 bott 40 Nurse – Bear 49gm, 779:55, 3.54 evga/60
    No. 231 Bott 10 Klefbom – Jones 24gm, 111:48, 4.29 evga/60

    Trade Russell?
    100% of goal scoring mechanism.
    I want to win a championship not be one of the 29 losing orgs each yr.

    Corsi to Corsi: 0% goal mechanism
    Corsi to Outcome: 100% goal mechanism
    Dmen abandoning def of Homeplate with transition puck pocession become Rovers.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouchard is a zone exit and zone entry savant.

  10. Seismic Source says:

    Be very interesting to see Connors fastest skater time in a few days. Whether he lost a step was in the back of my mind since game 1. Hes obviously ridiculously fast, but he did seem faster last year IMO.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear,

    Kris Russell:

    1.65 GA/60
    1.48 GF/60
    GF% 47.22%

    More goals go in that gets scored and 26% of those minutes are against elites, 37% against middle comp and 36% against “gritensity”.

    If I’m missing something, please tell me how straight GA/60 is more informative.

  12. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    rickithebear,

    How does your model account for quality of competition?

  13. Wilde says:

    3rd line.

    A lot of the 4th line CT/GP players don’t hit the 20GP sample threshold so it makes him look closer to the floor than he is, a lot of 4th-line-playing players have like 14-17 CT/GP

  14. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bouchard is a zone exit and zone entry savant.

    A rover!
    Wonder what his even goal dif is.

    I will check!

    Oh -12

    Keep trying kid.

  15. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    From the on-screen graphics so far this year, he’s faster than ever.

    I think the question is, how much faster could Connor have been this year if not for the injury & subsequent rehab?

  16. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Nice of you to casually ignore incremental in-season improvements by a rookie pro, with barely a dismissive eye at boxcars. Classy.

  17. Richard Roma says:

    rickithebear:
    51gm into season: 31team x 8 Dpair = 248 pairs (93 EVTOI)
    Evga/60: league median (#124) 2.55
    No. 1 Russell – Benning 23gm, 162:36, 0.37 evga/60
    No. 17 Klefbom – Bear 49gm, 105:31, 1.14 evga/60
    No. 32 Klefbom – Russell 48gm, 159:43, 1.50 evga/60
    No. 63 Russell – Larsson 26gm, 94:03, 1.91 evga/60
    No. 75 Russell – Jones 23gm, 172:04, 2.09 evga/60
    ———————————————————————- below 2.55 is negative goal diff/60
    No. 143 Klefbom – Larsson 27gm, 306:10, 2.74 evga/60
    No. 161 Klefbom – Persson 13gm, 163:13, 2.94 evga/60
    No. 209bott 40 Nurse – Bear 49gm, 779:55, 3.54 evga/60
    No. 231 Bott 10 Klefbom – Jones 24gm, 111:48, 4.29 evga/60

    Trade Russell?
    100% of goal scoring mechanism.
    I want to win a championship not be one of the 29 losing orgs each yr.

    Corsi to Corsi: 0% goal mechanism
    Corsi to Outcome: 100% goal mechanism
    Dmen abandoning def of Homeplate with transition puck pocession become Rovers.

    Asking for a friend, you ever heard of third pairing minutes?

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hebig’s goal – note the understated but great outlet by Bouch:

    https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1220182892904509440

  19. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Bill Peters was not subject to a CBA and unionization.

    Peters received a very substantial amount to disappear quietly.

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jets lose in regulation to CBJ – fantastic stuff.

    After holding a lead for a bit, DET is down two very late to MIN – no miracle on that one tonight.

  21. Bulging Twine says:

    okay good to know

    we don’t need anyone getting the Yakupov, Puljujarvi treatment down on the farm

  22. Reja says:

    Why is Winnipeg not trading for D help they should have done this a month ago, can’t blame the coach. If I’m the owner I fire the GM’s ass into the sun during the break and replace him with someone who’s not scared to make a move before the season is lost.

  23. Jethro Tull says:

    Jethro Tull:
    There were a lot of us here parsing every snippet of info on McDavid’s injury.

    My take away at the time was that it was more serious than first thought, literally because of the lack of info.

    Think about it; if it was a mundane injury, with rest and a bit of bike work, we would have seen updates every week.

    No, the very thought of a potentially career altering injury to the league’s star player coupled with a healing regimen that didn’t coincide with the team’s wishes? I don’t think anyone else other than Connor could have done that.Hip surgery for a young Finn that wanted a second opinion, anyone?

    I think it’s time to look long and hard at the team’s medical experts.

    Thanks for the replies everyone, some interesting replies.

    I took from the doc that the Oilers medical staff wanted to operate as soon as possible. There’s no way that gets communicated to Connor without the highest level managerial consent.

    We’re talking not just the Oilers franchise player, but the league’s.

    And we’re forgetting how many season tickets were riding on whether Connor’s knee was fucked or not. It absolutely behove the Oilers to keep it schtum. That it coincided with Connor’s wishes does not make it the right decision.

    We’ve endured the decade of darkness. Could we as a fanbase endure the premature end of the world’s best player?

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear: A rover!
    Wonder what his even goal dif is.

    I will check!

    Oh -12

    Keep trying kid.

    I encourage you to understand context and the fact that he’s now playing top pairing minutes as a 20 year old rookie pro and, over the last 6 weeks has show marked improvement in pretty much all areas.

    I didn’t know that posting the ability to get clean zone exits with possession and clean zone entries with control could be construed as a negative.

  25. Bulging Twine says:

    True enough

    A starting Goalie in the 3rd is good stuff

    Wennberg seems to have fallen off the pace the last couple years. Maybe he isn’t Torts’s type.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear: A rover!
    Wonder what his even goal dif is.

    I will check!

    Oh -12

    Keep trying kid.

    Further, the Kris Russell you praise so heavily in this thread is a negative at 5 on 5 goal differential while playing only 26% of his time against tough comp….

  27. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    rickithebear,

    Kris Russell:

    1.65 GA/60
    1.48 GF/60
    GF% 47.22%

    More goals go in that gets scored and 26% of those minutes are against elites, 37% against middle comp and 36% against “gritensity”.

    If I’m missing something, please tell me how straight GA/60 is more informative.

    GF/60:
    Corsi to Corsi transition driven by Forwards and Rovers.
    Corsi to outcome: driven by Corsi path directed by Forwards/ rovers, 3rs/4th option Dmen, point shots.
    Path success reduced by opposition Dmen and Goalie.

    What the fuck does GF have to do with real defenceman.
    The true Norris canadates!
    Russel is not a fucking Rover or a forward.
    He sure does not play dman or goalie for the opposition.

    Dmen are part of the 2D – 1G that drives Championship teams. as proven by the only 100% selection case of my champ roster theory.

    Did you read my clear differentiation between the 2 path mechanisms
    Transition 2D to Corsi release
    Goal scoring 3D Corsi release to outcome.

    You list
    our Forward, rover driven transition.
    Our Forward, rover, Point shot Corsi path targeting mechanism.
    Opposition Dmen, and Goalie Corsi goal outcome% reduction mechanism.
    Then you try to tell me that it is a 50% of the measure of Russell’s value.

    What a awful opinion!
    Cause none of that is good science or facts!

    Brutal!

    You recieve assists for another teammate directly scoring a goal.
    Let’s check Dmen direct contribution to Even offence.
    Evg/60

  28. Scungilli Slushy says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Would it be trite to suggest the bias is coming from a place where most officials are former players who washed out at some level?Sharing the ice with the best of the best isn’t enough, so they seek to have an impact through game management.

    Though I do agree with Brian Burke in that if you think NHL reffing is bad, have a look in Europe, and dare I say Russia.

    So that may be true, but it is also like saying the reffing in the NHL can be excused because the NFL can’t referee football better than college and lesser leagues. Which is not true.

    It’s not so much perfect, more about consistent year round, team to team, reg to playoffs. It is possible to have less negative outcomes. Too much old boy IMO, not enough concern about credibility.

    Maybe when ‘Cory” retires it’ll get better.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson deflects a Benning shot and the Condors are up 2-0.

    Currie should get the 2nd apple.

    Skinner has been fantastic.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    They’ve given the second assist to Granlund who helped on the zone entry with a rim – I though Currie tipped it back to Benning, maybe not.

  31. Scungilli Slushy says:

    rickithebear:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    We know their are 2 independent human machine action Types.

    1. Corsito outcome:
    – Themechanism of goal scoring.
    -100% goal outcome mechanism.
    – A high 3D tracking mechanism.
    -A puck path Type. With multiple outcomes.
    – the third dimension is critical to differentiating to 2 types of Corsi.
    Closed Corsi
    Open Corsi
    – open corsi the only scoreable data can be differentiated into Save, Goal.
    -The only existing simple Stat that captures the exclusion of closed Corsi and Captures the Open shot affect from Dmen and Goalies is Corsi to evga/60

    2.What I call Corsi to Corsi:
    – The mechanism of transition to achieve the ability to apply the mechanism of scoring.
    – 0% of the goal scoring mechanism.
    – A high% 2D tracking mechanism.
    – A vast % of Corsi areForward & Rover driven.
    – Dmen can only pass to forward or rovers.
    Once the dman abandons def of Homeplate to skate up puck thru NZ they are no longer Dmen they become Rovers.
    -A Puck pocession Type. A repocessionto Corsi mechanism that could have multiple pocession (phase) changes before next Corsi.

    Anyone who tries to tell me that you do not need to provide 100% of Corsi 3D paths Data is brutal science.
    Let’s exclude more than 50% of dmans goal against affect and comment on Dmen and goalies.

    Corsi can be
    1.Blocked ( non – scoreable)
    2. Missed ( non – scoreable)
    3. Tipped (redirected becoming new Corsi)
    A.Opp Corsi
    B. own Corsi
    4. Closed shot ( non – scoreable)
    5. Open Shot ( scoreable)
    A. Saved
    B. Goal

    We know that recent modern era history 7 of 8 final 4 team have been top def teams.

    We know that the first building of a team using 100% of players available in xpansion draft, that fit my championship core roster theory, resulted in a championship.

    As for trading Russell.
    See the list of only data that captures 100% of Corsi3D path mechanism for Dpairs.

    I get what you’re saying but in a highly fluid and fast game I don’t think your metric considers this.

    D that can transition the puck make a huge difference in goal scoring even if they don’t directly score. And I agree with you that one way offensive D are very likely not net contributors overall. Although I do think there are certain exceptions to that rule, as there are to any rule.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja:
    Why is Winnipeg not trading for D help they should have done this a month ago, can’t blame the coach.If I’m the owner I fire the GM’s ass into the sun during the break and replace him with someone who’s not scared to make a move before the season is lost.

    Does this mean that Holland should also be fired given his lack of trades in-season to acquire a 3C or top 6 winger?

  33. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Completely agree!

    In fact, I’m in the camp that if there are 12 infractions against CMD per game, call them all. Even if he takes four himself. The players and coaches will adjust accordingly if they believe that there will be consistency in the calls.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skinner with another solid save on a cross-ice pass to the scoring areas at the end of a PP.

  35. Scungilli Slushy says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Completely agree!

    In fact, I’m in the camp that if there are 12 infractions against CMD per game, call them all.Even if he takes four himself.The players and coaches will adjust accordingly if they believe that there will be consistency in the calls.

    Exactly

  36. Scungilli Slushy says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Completely agree!

    In fact, I’m in the camp that if there are 12 infractions against CMD per game, call them all.Even if he takes four himself.The players and coaches will adjust accordingly if they believe that there will be consistency in the calls.

    And the efforts to exceed the rules to win will be taken away, and the focus will be to succeed within rules.

    In any competitive environment a lack of boundary setting will lead to negative outcomes in some way.

  37. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja:
    Why is Winnipeg not trading for D help they should have done this a month ago, can’t blame the coach.If I’m the owner I fire the GM’s ass into the sun during the break and replace him with someone who’s not scared to make a move before the season is lost.

    Because they can’t.

    Byfuglien’s $7.2 million cap hit remains although he’s not playing.

    They also have more than $11 million in cap space sitting on IR.

    Byfuglien screwed them badly.

  38. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar: I encourage you to understand context and the fact that he’s now playing top pairing minutes as a 20 year old rookie pro and, over the last 6 weeks has show marked improvement in pretty much all areas.

    I didn’t know that posting the ability to get clean zone exits with possession and clean zone entries with control could be construed as a negative.

    Buttons?
    Triggers?
    ?

    He is a rover!

    All we can ask that he continues to improve the most important part of DEFENCEMAN portion of a Rover hybrid.
    2D – 1G

    Holland prefers his Dmen to be age ??? When becoming full time Dman?
    Anyone?
    Anyone!
    Anyone…..”…

  39. duct tape and foil says:

    OP – I forgot that Persson signed 2 years ago and then stayed in Sweden

    OriginalPouzar:

    Skinner has a lot of potential, but it’s going to take time for him to develop the consistency that’s missing from his game. He needs another full year in the AHL as a starter and then he could be ready to backup in the NHL. His time-line and the young Russian’s are close although Konovalov could spend his draft plus 3 season in the AHL with Rodrigue if Skinner is backing up in EDM.

  40. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    This inconsistency is what provides incentive to miscreants like the Marchands and Averys of the world. Those types of characters bank on the fact that the percentages are in their favour. They can play contrary to the rules to their own team’s benefit, because the chances they’ll be called to atone are slim.

    If the refs call the rule book as it is written — more specifically, just do their job — then the players will broadly play to the rules. The job of interpreting the rules falls a body such as the Department of Player Safety. If the rules need to change, it can be done fairly quickly. See: Oilers, Edmonton, and Avery, Sean.

  41. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Or, WPG screwed Big Buff between last year’s season ending medicals and the ones at this year’s training camp.

    Depends on who’s word you’re taking with little in the way of actual info.

    It’ll be interesting to see how this all shakes out in the end.

  42. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Ricki do you still sport a mullet?

    Serious question.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skinner has himself 31 saves half way through the 3rd.

    He makes another solid save on a HDSC, the play goes the other way and Peluso with a Drai-like sauce pass on a 2 on 1 to feed Joe G. for the 3-0 lead.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear: GF/60:
    Corsi to Corsi transition driven by Forwards and Rovers.
    Corsi to outcome: driven by Corsi path directed by Forwards/ rovers, 3rs/4th option Dmen, point shots.
    Path success reduced by opposition Dmen and Goalie.

    What the fuck does GF have to do with real defenceman.
    The true Norris canadates!
    Russel is not a fucking Rover or a forward.
    He sure does not play dman or goalie for the opposition.

    Dmenare part of the 2D – 1G that drives Championship teams. as proven by the only 100% selection case of my champ roster theory.

    Did you read my clear differentiation between the 2 path mechanisms
    Transition 2D to Corsi release
    Goal scoring 3D Corsi release to outcome.

    Youlist
    our Forward, rover driven transition.
    Our Forward, rover, Point shot Corsi path targeting mechanism.
    Opposition Dmen, and Goalie Corsi goal outcome% reduction mechanism.
    Then you try to tell me that it is a 50% of the measure of Russell’s value.

    What a awful opinion!
    Cause none of that is good science or facts!

    Brutal!

    You recieve assists for another teammate directly scoring a goal.
    Let’s check Dmen direct contribution to Even offence.
    Evg/60

    Happy to discuss if you are able to so in an adult and respectful manner.

    Please let me know if you are able (and willing) to do so.

  45. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Nice to see him bring his A-game outside of the playoffs, and for a bit of a stretch lately.

    A big step for him along his development path.

    Next step: consistency.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Feel free to watch the highlight of the Hebig goal I posted a bit earlier to see what good defenseman, even rovers, have to do with GF.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    duct tape and foil:
    OP – I forgot that Persson signed 2 years ago and then stayed in Sweden

    Skinner has a lot of potential, but it’s going to take time for him to develop the consistency that’s missing from his game. He needs another full year in the AHL as a starter and then he could be ready to backup in the NHL. His time-line and the young Russian’s are close although Konovalov could spend his draft plus 3 season in the AHL with Rodrigue if Skinner is backing up in EDM.

    Can’t disagree with that assessment of the tending prospect situation and, yes, I agree, Skinner is at least a one full year of AHL play away from the NHL.

    What I like is that Konovalov needs to be signed in the same off-season that the ELCs of both Wells and Skinner come due so the org will get to decide which goalie(s) they want to sign and keep – as of now, its looking like Konovalov and Skinner.

  48. jm363561 says:

    That I did not know. Mystery solved. Thanks.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maksimov with an empty netter on a solid play from Esposito.

  50. jp says:

    godot10: Coors Field is a baseball park in MLB.Are stats there not supposed to count.What about short left field fence at Fenway?

    A player shouldn’t be penalized for his ball park.The ball park was acceptable to MLB.

    For his career he hit .348 at home and .278 on the road. There’s supposed to be some kind of split but it’s kinda fair to dock him a little for the park he played the most games in.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Peluso from behind the goal line banks one in off the d-man to make it 5-0.

  52. rickithebear says:

    rover/dman sloting in FWd evg/60 levels

    1 (31st) 1.28, no Dmen
    2 (62nd) 1.14, none
    3 (93rd) 1.01, none
    4 (124th) .93, none
    5 (155th) .83, D. Hamilton .86
    6 (186th) .77, none
    7 (217th) .72, Werenski .73, Carlson .72
    8 (248th) .65, Deangelo .70, Makar .70, graves
    9 (279th) .58 none josi .63
    ————————- 7 dmen above 4th line evg/60
    10 (310th) .50, Weber .57, Hrocek .55, Pietrangelo .52, Pysyk .52, Letang .50, Skje .5
    11 (341st) .42, 12 Dmen
    12 (372nd) .35, 15 Dmen
    ———————— 33 dmen/Rovers 4th line fwd production.

    Which means 40 Dmen are better than PB fwd evg production rate.

    Elite open shot targeters drive EVG production by their targeting and their zone presence drawing the defence.

  53. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Does this mean that Holland should also be fired given his lack of trades in-season to acquire a 3C or top 6 winger?

    If Holland was in year 3 of his contract these trades would be happening.

  54. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Because they can’t.

    Byfuglien’s $7.2 million cap hit remains although he’s not playing.

    They also have more than $11 million in cap space sitting on IR.

    Byfuglien screwed them badly.

    Trade a forward with the same cap hit for a D let’s say Larsson for Ehlers something along those lines. If your going to cry about spilled milk and not make the playoffs because of Buff it’s time to be terminated.

  55. rickithebear says:

    jp: For his career he hit .348 at home and .278 on the road. There’s supposed to be some kind of split but it’s kinda fair to dock him a little for the park he played the most games in.

    Is this an arguement against Walker or a justification for computer Plate Ump.

  56. jp says:

    dessert1111: Friedman reporting that Oilers are thinking about extending Archibald, Sheahan and Nygard, and that other teams are interested in Archibald too.
    Are we a bit surprised that Haas isn’t included in this list? I wonder if it means anything.

    It could have something to do with his 15-1-0-1 line in the last month plus.

    I’d have no issue bringing him back but he’s not exactly forcing the issue either.

  57. jp says:

    rickithebear: Is this an arguement against Walker or a justification for computer Plate Ump.

    I guess it’s an argument against Walker (really just an acknowledgement that he benefited more than most from his home ball park).

    I’m not sure what computer Plate Ump is – do you mean non-human/unbiased umpires? If so that has next to nothing to do with it. Coors is cavernous (to prevent everything from being a homerun) so BA benefits a ton for basically anyone who plays there.

  58. defmn says:

    Reja: Trade a forward with the same cap hit for a D let’s say Larsson for Ehlers something along those lines. If your going to cry about spilled milk and not make the playoffs because of Buff it’s time to be terminated.

    Chevy has always been like this. There is a time for patience and a time to act. Chevy only has the patience part figured out imo.

  59. duct tape and foil says:

    You are in great shape if Nygard Sheahan and Archie is your 4th line. They should all be affordable next year and slide right into that role. Haas seems a good 13th forward and he might really benefit from a summer training the way he now knows is necessary.

    I could see Benson and Chaser/Neal (would be good to lose one this summer) on the 3rd line with a new and faster center. Pageau perfect but likely too expensive to obtain or retain.

    2nd line seems good and top line needs a LW.

    Bottom 6 was a disaster last year but it’s coming around with 2nd and 4th lines now looking pretty good. Need a 3C and top line LW

    jp: It could have something to do with his 15-1-0-1 line in the last month plus.

    I’d have no issue bringing him back but he’s not exactly forcing the issue either.

  60. v4ance says:

    I know I’m late to the discussion but I wanna make a few points.

    Was anyone’s summer enjoyment damaged in any way by the lack of information on the extent of McDavid’s injury or the subsequent rehab?

    I think the resounding answer is no.

    ***
    Do we want/need wall to wall tabloid coverage of our sports icons to the point they feel suffocated?

    I know there’s a range here but I fall on the side that says we don’t need to know every intimate detail of an athlete’s life outside of the playing field. I cheer for my team and my heros on that team and when they’re outside of the rink, I feel they should have the privacy to live their lives without having to feel like they’re in a fishbowl.

    The extreme case is the treatment of Prince Harry and Princess Megan. As royals, they have had every part of their lives intruded upon. Harry lived through the fact that paparazzi press literally hounded his mother to death in a Paris underpass. Now they have to cope with illegal intrusions like phone tapping and email hacking such that even intimate details that they would never reveal have been splashed across the headlines as everyone digs for the next “scoop”. As much as I am curious, there should be no place in the world for that kind of scrutiny and no one should have to live their lives under such a magnifying glass.

    ***

    After McDavid got injured, he was in a tough spot physically and mentally. He had to make a decision that could ruin or restart his career within a matter of days. At 22, knowing there’s a possibility that your NHL days could be severely curtailed had to be a scary thought. Both options, surgery or strenuous rehab, were going to lead to uncertain outcomes. I think he was in the same mindset and situation as Bobby Orr was when his knee was damaged.

    Once he chose the path of rehab, he and his support group might have been scared of the endgame but they collectively stood behind him. I feel that positive group mindset is what helped him come back at nearly 100% in such a short time. Not allowing the press to report on the details helped to limit any negative thoughts or doubts to intrude into the process.

    I don’t blame any of the press for not getting the scoop. As a poster said, McDavid’s inner circle showed staunch loyalty to keep all the info under wraps. It would have been an ego boost to share or leak the news of McDavid’s injury but it would have wounded Conner emotionally knowing that he couldn’t trust someone in his group and it might have set back his recovery. You can’t become or stay the best in the world without having some excellent people around you and it’s obvious Conner has chosen his allies well.

    I don’t want to live in a world where my desire to have the latest news overrides McDavid’s right to keep the things he wants private, private. I don’t want to drive him out of Edmonton with blanket coverage, like the media has driven Harry and Megan out of Britain. I want him to be happy, be positive, be in Edmonton for his entire career and win multiple cups. If that means i don’t hear the scary news on his rehab the instant he knows, I’m okay with that. Especially if it contributes to his health, well being and speeds his recovery…

  61. Bulging Twine says:

    I wonder why Benson isn’t a C

    I know he’s good along the boards but traditionally the puck distributor is the Center and you’d like your wingers to have good shots – score.
    He’s definitely more a disher than a scorer

    He’s got a good brain

    How’s his defensive game?

  62. Bulging Twine says:

    I was looking through Hockeydb drafts by team
    I was wondering how often teams take goalies and I saw how many whiffs there are in drafting goalies (as there are at any position). So many. It’s hard to get a hit on a goalie.
    I got to thinking, where do the few goalies that actually make it come from? How are the Oilers going to get a goalie or two for the future?

    Of the 56 goalies that have played in 15 or more games this season:

    10 (17.9%) were drafted in the 1st round
    11 (19.6%) were drafted in the 2nd
    10 (17.9%) in round 3
    5 (8.9%) in round 4
    3 (5.4%) in round 5
    3 (5.4%) in round 6
    2 (3.6%) in round 7
    1 in round 8
    2 in round 9
    9 (16.1%) undrafted

    Of the 33 goalies who have played in at least 25 games (starters or close to):

    6 (18.2%) drafted in round 1
    8 (24.2%) round 2
    6 round 3
    3 round 4
    3 round 5
    2 round 6
    1 round 7
    1 round 8
    3 undrafted

  63. Bulging Twine says:

    I don’t have time now but it would be good to count how many draft picks were spent on goalies in each round and then calculate the hit rate (and whiff rate) for each round

  64. jp says:

    duct tape and foil:
    You are in great shape if Nygard Sheahan and Archie is your 4th line. They should all be affordable next year and slide right into that role. Haas seems a good 13th forward and he might really benefit from a summer training the way he now knows is necessary.

    I could see Benson and Chaser/Neal (would be good to lose one this summer) on the 3rd line with a new and faster center. Pageau perfect but likely too expensive to obtain or retain.

    2nd line seems good and top line needs a LW.

    Bottom 6 was a disaster last year but it’s coming around with 2nd and 4th lines now looking pretty good. Need a 3C and top line LW

    I agree with most of that.

    I wouldn’t say NEED a 3C and 1LW, though it would be ideal..

  65. jp says:

    Wilde: There is less evidence of my position on McLeod’s lack of offense than there was at the beginning of the season.

    This is really great stuff.

    Encouraging on McLeod and such good information more generally. Thank you.

  66. Bulging Twine says:

    of the 331 FW’s that have played in 35 games or more this season:

    158 (47.7%) were first round picks
    47 (14.2%) 2nd round
    35 (10.6%) 3rd round
    23 (6.9%) 4th round
    16 (4.8%) 5th round
    15 (4.5%) 6th round
    8 (2.4%) 7th round
    29 (8.8%) undrafted

    Are first round picks important?
    Yes, yes they are.

  67. Bulging Twine says:

    Of the 162 Defencemen that have played in at least 35 games this year:

    64 (39.5%) drafted in first round
    34 (21%) 2nd rounders
    16 (9.9%) 3rd round
    13 (8%) 4th round
    9 (5.6%) 5th round
    7 (4.3%) 6th round
    4 (2.5%) 7th round
    15 (9.3%) undrafted

    Significantly higher % of 2nd rounders than for FW’s
    Again I’d like to see the # of draft picks used on each position to give more info here. As in is there a good hit rate on 2nd round D men or are more % of Dmen picks used in the 2nd and not as many in the 1st?

  68. Bulging Twine says:

    Appears that there is value in drafting goalies in the 3rd round

    Maybe a good template to draft by would be this:

    1st round: FW
    2nd round: D
    3rd round: G

  69. Bulging Twine says:

    From 2003-2014 there were 265 Goalies drafted. Of those

    6.4% were in the 1st round
    13.6% in the 2nd
    15.5% in the 3rd
    13.6% in the 4th
    16.6% in the 5th
    18.9% in the 6th
    15.5% in the 7th

  70. ArmchairGM says:

    Does anyone have any intel on Lavoie? Just going through hockeydb and noticed that he’s scored 6-5-11 in the six games since he’s been traded to Chicoutimi. Three of those points came on the PP, 1 goal and 2 assists.

    Chicoutimi was a top team prior to the trade, but they weren’t a particularly high scoring team. Since the trade they’ve gone 6-0-0 and outscored their opponents 39 – 20. That’s 6.5 GF and 3.33 GA… prior to the trade they were averaging 3.81 GF and 2.84 GA.

    Also acquired recently by Chicoutimi:

    Dawson Mercer, RHC: 3, 0-5-5 since trade, 2020 draft eligible
    Felix Bibeau, LHC: 13, 3-11-14, NYI 2019 6th round
    Karl Boudrais, LHD: 6, 2-4-6, undrafted 2018 eligible
    Patrick Kyte, LHD: 8, 4-2-6, undrafted 2017 eligible

  71. Jaxon says:

    I’ll copy this over when today’s post goes up but I’m wondering if anyone thinks the Oilers should be interested in any of the goalies who will be UFAs this summer.

    Holtby (Alberta/Sask born) 30yrs, .897 this season
    Lehner 28yrs, .922
    Markstrom 30yrs, .916
    Francouz, 30yrs, .924

    Holtby might be a promising reclamation project. Might he find his way back home?

  72. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    I’ll copy this over when today’s post goes up but I’m wondering if anyone thinks the Oilers should be interested in any of the goalies who will be UFAs this summer.

    Holtby (Alberta/Sask born) 30yrs, .897 this season
    Lehner 28yrs, .922
    Markstrom 30yrs, .916
    Francouz, 30yrs, .924

    Holtby might be a promising reclamation project. Might he find his way back home?

    Good point, I think Holtby would be fine in a tandem situation although I have no evidence for this. I know he’s overworked though: in the 5 seasons prior to this one he averaged 77 GP, including playoffs!! That’s INSANE. This year he’s on pace to play 55 regular season games, although I doubt he hits that number with Samsonov playing like he is.

    I’d also be inquiring about Georgiev and Murray – especially Murray. People are down on him this year in a big way, but when you analyse his play he was only off for about 8 games; the rest of the time he’s been well above average. Plus, of course, several Cups. And he’s only 25. If I could get him on a $4M x 5 year contract this summer I’d do it in a heartbeat. Go long rather than high – he just might go for it.

  73. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: Good point, I think Holtby would be fine in a tandem situation although I have no evidence for this. I know he’s overworked though: in the 5 seasons prior to this one he averaged 77 GP, including playoffs!! That’s INSANE. This year he’s on pace to play 55 regular season games, although I doubt he hits that number with Samsonov playing like he is.

    I’d also be inquiring about Georgiev and Murray – especially Murray. People are down on him this year in a big way, but when you analyse his play he was only off for about 8 games; the rest of the time he’s been well above average. Plus, of course, several Cups. And he’s only 25. If I could get him on a $4M x 5 year contract this summer I’d do it in a heartbeat. Go long rather than high – he just might go for it.

    I was going to include Murray, but I believe he is a RFA, so there is a good chance the team can keep him and re-sign him at a relatively good cost given his play in the last 2 years. Ullmark is in a similar situation as a RFA.

    But Holtby might be looking for a new lease on things and to come home and play with McDavid, Draisaitl, Holland, Tippett might look like a pretty good start. Maybe a hometown (couple bad years) discount?

  74. Jaxon says:

    I’ve been holding onto Hotlby in my hockey pool for a couple years and I think I’m about to let him go.
    T. Jarry
    P. Francouz
    B. Holtby(R)
    I. Samsonov(R)
    D. Kuemper(I)
    That’s my goalie roster and I have to let someone go now that Kuemper is back from injury. The young guys are kinda unproven but they’re killing it roght now and it’s a keeper league so they may be the future elite to hold onto.

  75. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: I was going to include Murray, but I believe he is a RFA, so there is a good chance the team can keep him and re-sign him at a relatively good cost given his play in the last 2 years. Ullmark is in a similar situation as a RFA.

    But Holtby might be looking for a new lease on things and to come home and play with McDavid, Draisaitl, Holland, Tippett might look like a pretty good start. Maybe a hometown (couple bad years) discount?

    Correct, Murray is an RFA. He posted a .919 Sv% last year (above his career average), what was negative about that?

  76. elgruntus says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Completely agree!

    In fact, I’m in the camp that if there are 12 infractions against CMD per game, call them all.Even if he takes four himself.The players and coaches will adjust accordingly if they believe that there will be consistency in the calls.

    Wasn’t it the Canucks that said in pre-season , “they won’t call them all, so keep doing it”? I think most teams use that philosophy.

  77. godot10 says:

    jp: I guess it’s an argument against Walker (really just an acknowledgement that he benefited more than most from his home ball park).

    I’m not sure what computer Plate Ump is – do you mean non-human/unbiased umpires? If so that has next to nothing to do with it. Coors is cavernous (to prevent everything from being a homerun) so BA benefits a ton for basically anyone who plays there.

    So Colorado Rockies players are not eligible for the Hall of Fame. Is that the argument? MLB put a team there.

  78. godot10 says:

    Bulging Twine:
    I wonder why Benson isn’t a C

    I know he’s good along the boards but traditionally the puck distributor is the Center and you’d like your wingers to have good shots – score.
    He’s definitely more a disher than a scorer

    He’s got a good brain

    How’s his defensive game?

    Why are not Kane and Panarin and Kucherov centres?

  79. jp says:

    godot10: So Colorado Rockies players are not eligible for the Hall of Fame.Is that the argument?MLB put a team there.

    Of course that’s not the argument. Why are you being so black and white?

    Coors Field inflates hits and runs. It’s a fact. Why wouldn’t the Hall of Fame selection committee take that into account when evaluating a players career? I’ve never said Walker shouldn’t have gotten in.

    Saying Colorado Rockies hitters are full value for their hitting numbers is like saying Zack Kassian is full value for his offense playing with McDavid.

  80. Bulging Twine says:

    godot10: Why are not Kane and Panarin and Kucherov centres?

    Not sure but both are definitely scorers with good shots.
    I’m not as familiar with Panarin’s game but Kane is good from the sides of the ice. He’s not a real backchecking savant or anything.
    Ya maybe Benson just sees the ice better from the sides. Not sure, Haven’t seen him enough tbh

  81. CallighenMan says:

    geowal:
    Am I the only one who thought we’d lost our Old edmonton sun Oilers writer when they heard the news?

    me too. Wasn’t the bridgekeeper played by Terry Gilliam? IMDB says yes. Still a great line though.
    “He’s NOT the Messiah, he’s a very naughty boy!

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