It’s been five years now in Bakersfield, and before that the Oilers had a five-year window sending their new pro players to the farm in Oklahoma City. Five years of Barons, five years of Condors. How you doin’? It’s a good time (five years from now will be a better time) to see if the organization is making progress.
The Barons, you may recall, produced a large number of useful (or very useful) NHL defensemen. Are the Condors delivering similar quality blue? More important is Bakersfield going to deliver more forwards? Let’s have a look.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
- Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
- Jonathan Willis: The 2020 NHL broadcast rankings: The best and worst markets to watch the games
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
- Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers rocket to Russia during free agency this summer
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Connor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
- Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
- Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
- Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season
OKLAHOMA CITY BLUE 2010-15
I’m running only players who were rookies in Oklahoma City and the results are spectacular. Over a five-year period, the system delivered handsome returns on the blue. My goodness that’s a quality group. Petry, Schultz and Klefbom play big and important minutes, all three destined to enjoy signifant careers and possibly impressive totals like 1,000 career games. That’s massive. Added to the trio are four men who have contributed at least two seasons worth of NHL duty, Marincin coming up on three.
BAKERSFIELD BLUE 2015-20
The Condors group has fewer years to compile NHL games, but the trend is good to very good. I’m not sure Nurse, Bear and Bouchard will reach the heights of Petry, Klefbom and Schultz, but this cluster is going to be playing in the vital parts of big games for years to come.
OKLAHOMA CITY FORWARDS 2010-15
Important to keep in mind that forwards Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and Leon Draisaitl went straight to the NHL. That said, this is not a strong crop for five AHL seasons. None of these men has played even a full season on a skill line in the NHL, minor league grads are at times good enough to play part of their careers in prominent roles. This is, as it always is when I look at it, disappointing.
BAKERSFIELD FORWARDS 2015-20
This is where the Condors will shine, it’s already obvious. Much of the reason is first-round picks Puljujarvi and Yamamoto, but names like Slepyshev and Benson have or will spent time on skill units. I’ll guess that JP and Yamamoto tower over both lists by the time this thing rolls out another five seasons.
CONCLUSION
Edmonton wasn’t sending Oklahoma City talent like Puljujarvi or Yamamoto but there was also a disconnect going on down there. Tyler Pitlick had some injury issues and was slow played in 2011-12, and then got run over in 2012-13 because Hall, Eberle, Nuge and others played there during the lockout. The Condors are a different team, especially under Jay Woodcroft. I believe in Tyler Benson’s talent. I also believe he is lucky to have arrived in pro hockey in 2018 instead of 2012.
My point was that Chiarelli did have a relationship with Marino – it was cultivated.
It was when Chiarelli was fired that the door closed on the ability of the Oilers to sign the player after his senior year.
If Chiarelli was still the GM, there would have been a reasonable likelihood that Marino would have signed in Edmonton – not for sure, I don’t know, but he did have a relationship with Chiarelli.
OriginalPouzar,
I am very confident that if healthy Kemp will be a solid 3rd pairing NHL Dman within 3 yrs
OriginalPouzar,
The Chiarelli point is in reference to the signing of Persson and the failure to cultivate a relationship with Marino. Perhaps they could have hired his twin brother with the Oilers as a video assistant (he is the Harvard video guy) or something of that nature. I think it was quite clear that Marino had the confidence of his coach, but his offensive opportunities were blocked by Adam Fox in his Freshman season, Fox and Rielly Walsh (NJ 3rd Rounder) in his sophomore season and then Fox, Walsh and Jack Rathbone (Van 4th Rounder) in his Junior season.
If you just look at Marino’s stats you’d be underwhelmed and think he’d regressed, but by what I’ve read he was getting over 70% dzone starts against the elites. Chiarelli had a big part to play in this draft pick and the decisions about how to persuade them (Chia was also a Harvard alumni) so this is what I am trying to say.
I’ve been following NCAA basketball quite closely for 30 years, so I understand the rules, but hockey is a different animal compared to the 2 sports and clearly there are opportunities to cultivate relationships with players. You’d think if this was a priority, bringing in Paul Coffey, Mark Messier, Wayne Gretzky and even current players could be a tactic that could be deployed. If I ran an NHL team I certainly would be doing these sorts of things. Otherwise you are just wasting your draft picks.
Riley Nash didn’t want his career derailed by Lowe+MacT’s competence, the weird part is it made me mad at Nash for the longest time for not wanting to join the shiteshow lol
Smart player, evidently.
It was meant as a rhetorical question, thinking Marino was the only one.
I did forget about Nash. And Comrie threatened to.
Riley Nash as well.
How quickly one forgets Marino who had to be traded or he would have walked.
OriginalPouzar,
OriginalPouzar,
Bam again!
jp,
Bam!
Foot in mouth disease? This plays out like spillies on Sportsnet almost every time!
Kemp is a right shot D and all the listed d-man are left shot.
Well, Kemp is a RD so he’d be walking into a depth chart of Bear, Larsson, Benning, Bouchard and Logan Day. Only 3 of those have contracts, and Larsson is UFA next summer. Almost the ideal landing spot, no?
Depth chart aside, how many times have the Oilers had a college player walk to FA?
Harpers Hair,
The Undertaker won at WRESTLEMANIA last night and it is also simulated.
Oh…this is a whiskey blog sorry.
Finishing the season in North Dakota.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/north-dakota-nhl-location-2019-20-season-resumes/
Of course, the most likely scenario is that Kemp plays his senior year and doesn’t sign with a team that has a brace of middling D blocking his way in Nurse, Jones, Broberg, Samurokov and Laggesson.
I agree Bear is likely to struggle at some point. And agree with the general sentiment being discussed that we just don’t know what Jones is (so we can’t say with complete certainty that Bear is the better player).
But what Bear did this year as a rookie was really extremely impressive (even aside from how unexpected it was). Minor blips, but he played the entire year in the top 4 (a majority as clear 1RD) on a playoff team. He maintained that performance all year, and as you point out without much cover behind him.
A hell of a season and a great arrow for his future.
FWIW Kemp just turned 21 and completed his Jr year. So he’ll graduate and begin pro at age 22. He’ll have a 3 pro seasons to try to get where Rafferty is now.
Don’t place such lofty expectations on the poor guy.
Raffletree hopes he can get to middling status.
Given how realistic the sim has been, its quite likely!
I like Phil Kemp – he was really good for the Americans and the 2018/19 World Juniors.
He has progressed well and in being likely that he will sign a pro contract after his senior year makes it so that he’s already covered his bet as a 7th rounder.
I do think he has some potential for the NHL but the odds are against him making it or playing more than a handful of games. Time will tell.
Of course, he’s currently 21 years old, will have just turned 22 when he finishes his college career and I’m not propping him up to be a sure-fire 2nd pairing d-man next year that is more valuable that Evan Bouchard, Oscar Klefbom and Ethan Bear despite being a month shy of 25 and non an NHLer…..
He sure has struggled since heading back to Europe (looks like injuries also based on GP). But I’d forgotten how mediocre his offense was even before coming to NA (his best season, right before joining Jersey, was 48-6-15-21 in Finland). His scoring with the Oilers seems to be the anomaly more than anything.
So the Oilers were more likely than Vancouver to win the Cup? Makes sense.
“Calgary is out in 1st round”
Sounds about right.
Yup.
Can’t disagree with the opportunity comment in general.
Bear doesn’t have the likes of Klefbom and Nurse ahead of him and is clearly top 2 on the right side depth chart (and probably #1 in the minds of most).
What’s amazing is that, in my opinion, both players can buy real estate in Edmonton – they are done with the minors!
Development is generally not in a straight line and I do expect the pre-prime Bear to have some struggles and tough stretches next season but I also do expect/anticipate that, overall, he’ll be even better.
For one, that is the natural progression for 22-23 year old players (progression as opposed to stagnation or regression) and, importantly, he is likely to have more help in the top 4. He played 1RD most of the season (and may do that again) playing the most TOI vs. elites of the group and he did that with his back-up in the top 4 being Joel Persson or off-side Kris Russell for most of the year. Having a healthy Adam Larsson for the year will help Bear out (including taking PK minutes).
With respect to Jones being blocked, well, yes, Klef/Nurse surely do that but I don’t think Broberg factors in over the next 2 years. As we know, he’ll be in Sweden for next season and then, presumably, will need a full AHL season before the NHL is a realistic option.
The timing is interesting – Broberg should be ready for real NHL at bats at the same time Jones 2 year deal is done and Nurse’s 2-year, UFA-expiry, deal is up…..
Remember last season when the Blues were last in the league and went on to win the cup?
Might win the Conn Smith.
To start that season in OKC, it was four AHL rookies, and two vets, Plante and Teubert, But Plante and Teubert sucked hind banana out of the gate. So it was four AHL rookies carrying the load, and they couldn’t hold a lead. Schultz, Marincin, Fedun, Davidson.
After the NHL season started, OKC acquired two NHL tweeners in Brett Clark and Randy Jones to stabilized things, and Nelson worked his magic. Teubert also played a bit better. And the rookies established themselves. Lander and Arcobello took off. Hartikainen was beastly, Pitlick got healthy, and Rajala rocked and rolled.
Simulation probably including a Rafferty call-up!
Is Kemp like “Forever 19”Bouchard?
Looks to me like he would need at least a year in the AHL after his senior year.
Wouldn’t that make him too old to be a prospect in your world?
Can you confirm? I heard same but cannot confirm? Will leave it up for an hour then delete if we can’t find confirmation.
https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/barry-allen-edmonton-musician-dead-at-74-1.4883671
was just announced on CFRN
Just speculating but both Holland and Tippett really had no reason to know much about Bear or Jones when they arrived in Edmonton.
After watching what Bear did from the start of camp and then Jones did for a few games in Edmonton I would think a smart GM would talk to Tippett and phone Woodcroft to see how they thought the two compared.
With that info in hand offering a pretty small bet to sign Jones before he ramps up his value like Bear did is smart GM’ing in my opinion.
– a big tell for me from that lockout year was if I recall correctly the team results were actually better once jultz hall and ebs went back after the lockout than when they were on the team.
– I midget be recalling incorrectly however. I can’t be bothered to look it up: I’d rather keep my narrative unless proven otherwise.
Fair enough but I would note that I don’t think Jesse’s 18 year old season in the AHL (after he was finally sent down) gets enough credit. His production as an 18 year old was very very very good – he was the youngest player in North American pro hockey (major leagues) and playing as an 18 year old in a league most aren’t allowed in until 20.
We should have been pumped with his draft plus 1 sason in the AHL.
Colin James song…I met colin when he was very young as he had moved to vancouver from sask..we met at the yale listening to jim byrnes I think..anyways he hit our table up for some bread to buy a 6 pack..dont think he has drunk booze for years..he is definitely the loudest guitar player I have ever played with though..haha..we did the flood aid in calgary and I was part of the house band…I was playing with a great band and he had another guitar player with him as well, so 3 guitar players with the amps set back at least 15 feet from all of them.set up basically in front of the drums and bass..I was playing an svt of course as loud as I could possibly manage?..and then he comes back to me and says hey — could you turn up a bit?…the bass was vibrating out of my arms it was so loud plus it didnt hurt that the drummer was also a extremely loud and intense great rock drummer who played on bryan adams cut like a knife..great player and singer
I heard one of coins favourite bands to see live in edmonton was the Lent bros…not really a surprise
I don’t know about closing the gap – maybe, maybe not, however, I am highly confident that Jones’ $850K cap hit for the next two years is going to be a massive value contract.
He signed that extension and then, bam, took off and soldified himself as an every day NHL d-man and took steps to show he may solidify himself as an every day NHL top 4 guy.
The timing of the signing was amazing for the Oilers.
How is Auvitu better than Persson?
I’m not saying that he isn’t but he’s been in the KHL and SHL the last two years, not producing offensive numbers…..
Foot speed and resume.
He had a positive impact when he played in the NHL. He was a good player, but not deployed properly.
Just heard Barry Allen passed….man we were just recalling all the incredible musicians and friends who were instrumental in building our core of culture in our early years…respect always
I’m not sure i understand the reference to Chiarelli not focussing on Marino.
Chiarelli no longer being with the organization was the main reason the door closed on signing Marino.
Signing Marino before his last college season wasn’t really an option, he wasn’t ready to turn pro, and during that season, Chiarelli was dismissed from the organization.
Here is hoping that Kemp wants to sign with the Oilers after his up coming senior season. I know Howson, in his current role, has indeed been in touch with Kemp and his camp and I would presume his successor will this year.
Kesserling is 3-4 years away from being signed.
Since December 31st the Oilers are the 5th or 6th best team in the entire league (depending on whether you look at points or winning percentage). Vancouver is 18th or 20th. Something tells me Dom’s simulator needs a tune-up.
I agree that Bear is ahead of Jones at this point and I’m not sure it was purely a function of opportunity – Jones did get ample time in the top 4 during Klef’s injury and he proved to 100% be an every day NHL d-man with legit potential to be a legit top 4 guy but he hasn’t quite proven to be that legit top 4 guy like Bear has.
Its tough to compare the two a bit as, despite the fact we can label both of them “puck moving D”, they have different skil-sets.
I’m not 100% sure Bear is a better defender in all respects – I absolutely agree that he is in defensive zone battles, he really upped his game mid-way through the year with between the blueline and faceoff dot battle. At the same time, Bear is prone to getting beat with a stretch pass and with speed. On the stretch pass he often mis-angles and on the rush can be beat.
Bear is “calmer” with the puck on his stick and is able to take the extra second and make the extra move to create space and a lane for a pass. On the other hand, I think Jones has the stronger stretch pass for length.
Bear has a plus shot but Jones is WAY better at actually getting a shot off and his shot through an on net (I think the best on the team).
Some very good points. I do believe Jones is in way tougher on the left side due to the Oilers left side talent. Depending on the cap and because of his left side right side versatility he would make a great seventh D.
Weird, in my NHL20 simulation Oilers just won the cup ?
Vancouver doesn’t make the show
Calgary is out 1st round
Vegas out 2nd round
Avalanche fall in the western finals
Boston watches Oilers lift the Stanley at the end of game 6.
NHL20 laughs at a team making up 8pts on Vegas with so little time left. Does Dom realize there’s a thing called the Gary extra, doesn’t seem like it.
I’m pretty sure Dom’s sim has the “better” team winning *every* game through the regular season. We all know real life doesn’t work that way.
It doesn’t sound like even that.
He notes that Edmonton’s probability of making the playoffs beginning the simulation was 95%, “as it should’ve been” (his words).
Basically the simulation handed the Oilers a terrible run of bad luck “95 percent of the time it doesn’t happen. This is what a very unlucky five percent looks like.”
The Canucks, who he says are “equal on paper” before running the sim, went 11-1-1 vs the Oilers 4-6-1. Blind damn (fantasy) luck lol.
https://theathletic.com/1676721/2020/04/05/by-the-numbers-what-if-the-nhl-season-wasnt-suspended/
New for The Athletic: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson if they’re going to flourish in the NHL.
https://theathletic.com/1724610/2020/04/05/lowetide-bakersfield-condors-forward-prospects-might-need-a-history-lesson/
That is fair. I guess my comment was more about a future yet to be played out. I expect Jones to continue to improve but he is blocked on the left side for the time being and Broberg will be moving up once he gets to the quarter mile marker.
What Holland decides to do with his LD two years from now will be a major story for this team imo.
He’ll have them practicing picking up Stanley Cups & hoisting it over their head, of course. It weighs about 50 lbs. and balance is important. At least LT seems to think…
By that time Samorukov may have eaten Jones lunch as well, better tool box. Holland wii definitely have riches abounding at left D. Jones may be the sacrificial lamb foe expansion.
LT: More important pergoing to deliver more forwards? Let’s have a look.
Google must be failing me today. I’m sure that there is some obscure reference to this term that is a remnant from an old hockey bible that resides in LT’s basement or some song lyric or perhaps he picked up in one of those bars we spoke of the other day.
As for the heights that Nurse won’t be able to achieve, I’m not so sure that he lags that far behind Petry or Jultz. Physically he may be the best. His head sure could use some infusion of something at times. Maybe it’s coming but overall, is he not a top 4 defender?
lol. it’s fixed above now.
Defensemen break your heart. Bear has elevated status because of the most recent season. Doing it again is going to be difficult.
I would have a very difficult time trusting any simulation that has Vancouver making up an 8 point deficit on Vegas over the balance of this season.
hard to simulate injuries and hot and cold streaks me thinks….wasn’t your goaltender a little tender there for a spell?…
Petry was ready for the NHL right out of the box when he finally arrived.
I thought he came from the Paul Coffey school of skating. I loved him in the first game I saw him play. I think it was an end to end game against Anaheim.
Watched game 3 of the 1992 World Series this morning. Had no recollection of Manuel Lee. Crazy almost triple play. Kelly Gruber homer. And since it’s so long ago and I only really remember the ‘93 series and not ‘92 I didn’t actually know what would happen it wasn’t strictly a trip down memory lane but a ‘new viewing’.
Most sports I’ve watched since the sports world ended.
That was a triple play.
Gruber made the tag the umps missed that call.
What a team they had.
Agreed
Didn’t he play in a Finnish league this past season?
Lol. I had thought the S in SM-Liiga meant Swedish…and I don’t know where Karpat is!
Point stands, I wouldn’t be considering him a Condor development product anymore.
Edit: and it turns out karpat isn’t a place but a club name, he’s in Oulu. The struggle is real this morning…er…afternoon.
That is my expectation, actually. 😉
I wouldn’t give the Condors any credit for JP. If he comes back, I’d be crediting his Swedish league development and grouping him with our other overseas players.
JP’s fnishing touches are happening in Finland.
Did you know he is AVERAGING 6.7 shots per game, close to 100 shots taken than the next guy in the league (less than a 7% shooting percentage though).
I do normally have good geography skills I swear…
Lol, I was wondering about that with your handle’s first 3 letters and all….